Report Summary 1. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating at a high level, facing resistance at 4,500 ringgit. After a brief adjustment and stabilization, supported by overall bullish fundamentals, the futures may approach 4,500 ringgit. After effectively breaking through and holding above 4,500 ringgit, with potential bullish factors such as limited inventory growth at the end of August and continued export growth in September, there is a chance for an upward trend. Domestically, the Dalian palm oil futures are also in a high - level consolidation. After several unsuccessful attempts to break through 9,500 yuan, it is expected to strengthen further with the support of the rebound in Malaysian palm oil. After breaking through and stabilizing above 9,500 yuan, it may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil and could even hit new highs. A near - term weak and long - term strong view is maintained [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The expected high yield of US soybeans is weighing on CBOT soybeans and soybean oil, affecting the domestic oil market. Currently, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but downstream consumption is increasing as traders stock up for the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of Dalian soybean oil is a narrow - range oscillation. The January contract will continue to oscillate around 8,300 yuan. After the adjustment, based on the rise of international vegetable oils and the start of domestic consumption, the price may rise to around 8,500 yuan [4]. - **Bean Meal**: In the spot market, as oil mills in North China and other regions fulfill contracts normally, trading is light at the beginning of the month, and traders' quotes are down 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The impact of this week's imported soybean auction on the spot market is limited. Traders tend to replenish stocks at low prices during the oscillation. Massive trading may not occur until the middle of the month. The short - term spot price will fluctuate between 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton [17]. 2. Price Information 2.1 Oil Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | 246 yuan/ton | - 4 | | P 5 - 9 | - 204 yuan/ton | - 8 | | P 9 - 1 | - 42 yuan/ton | 12 | | Y - P 01 | - 1,066 yuan/ton | - 30 | | Y - P 05 | - 1,108 yuan/ton | - 28 | | Y - P 09 | - 958 yuan/ton | - 18 | | Y 1 - 5 | 288 yuan/ton | - 6 | | Y 5 - 9 | - 354 yuan/ton | - 18 | | Y 9 - 1 | 66 yuan/ton | 24 | | OI 1 - 5 | 169 yuan/ton | 3 | | OI 5 - 9 | - 353 yuan/ton | - 58 | | OI 9 - 1 | 184 yuan/ton | 55 | | Y/M 01 | 2.7397 | 0.23% | | Y/M 05 | 2.8712 | 0.32% | | Y/M 09 | 2.8017 | 0.32% | | OI/RM 01 | 3.9064 | 0.16% | | OI/RM 05 | 4.0088 | 0.1% | | OI/RM 09 | 3.8974 | - 0.31% | [5] 2.2 Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Price | Daily Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | 9,368 yuan/ton | - 0.57% | | Palm Oil 05 | 9,148 yuan/ton | - 0.31% | | Palm Oil 09 | 9,346 yuan/ton | - 0.36% | | BMD Palm Oil Main Contract | 4,434 ringgit/ton | - 0.94% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | 9,300 yuan/ton | - 80 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | - 42 yuan/ton | 32 | | POGO | 492.819 dollars/ton | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil Spread | - 26.73 dollars/ton | - 12.5 | [7][8] 2.3 Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Price | Daily Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | 8,366 yuan/ton | 0.52% | | Soybean Oil 05 | 8,070 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | Soybean Oil 09 | 8,454 yuan/ton | 0.47% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 52.5 cents/pound | 0.77% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | 8,490 yuan/ton | 70 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | 64 yuan/ton | - 8 | | BOHO (Weekly) | 56.202 dollars/barrel | - 9.3588 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil Spread | - 750 yuan/ton | - 70 | [13] 2.4 Oilseed Futures Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 3,066 | 16 | 0.52% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2,821 | 11 | 0.39% | | Bean Meal 09 | 3,020 | 14 | 0.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,521 | 21 | 0.84% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,406 | 12 | 0.5% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,562 | 9 | 0.35% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1,040 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1395 | 0.0036 | 0.05% | [18] 2.5 Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 240 | 0 | | M05 - 09 | - 196 | - 6 | | M09 - 01 | - 44 | 6 | | RM01 - 05 | 106 | - 1 | | RM05 - 09 | - 159 | - 25 | | RM09 - 01 | 53 | 26 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3,020 | 0 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 30 | 4 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2,508 | - 8 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 8 | 5 | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 512 | 8 | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 550 | 9 | [19][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are driven up by the strengthened expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and the continuous gold - buying trend of global central banks [3]. - Copper prices are in a state of multi - factor intersection and remain volatile. The upside is limited by weak demand in the automotive, home appliance, and real estate sectors, while the support at 79,000 yuan/ton is solid [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short term, but there is pressure above. Breaking through the 21,000 pressure level requires the fulfillment of peak - season expectations, a significant improvement in demand, and inventory reduction [35]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the supply in an oversupply state and the demand awaiting the performance of the "Golden September and Silver October" [63]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, with macro factors leading the market and little change in fundamentals [76]. - Tin prices have an upward driving force due to the tight supply, despite the demand pressure [93]. - Carbonate lithium futures are expected to enter an oscillating and consolidating stage, with attention paid to the environmental protection situation on the supply side and the continuation of downstream restocking [111]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with a relatively narrow price - fluctuation range [122]. - Polysilicon futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, supported by the improved fundamentals from industrial integration [123]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has been strengthened to 89%, which suppresses the US dollar and boosts the financial attribute of gold. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe increase the demand for hedging, and the continuous gold - buying trend of global central banks provides long - term support, jointly driving up the gold price [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily - view analysis provided, mainly shows relevant price and inventory data [4][12]. Copper - **Price**: The latest price of Shanghai copper futures shows an increase, with the daily increase of the main contract being 0.47%. The price of LME copper 3M also increases by 0.68%. The support at 79,000 yuan/ton is solid, but the upside is limited by weak demand [15][16]. - **Supply - demand**: The spot premium increases with the price increase, and the refined - scrap price difference is close to a reasonable level. The demand in the automotive, home appliance, and real estate sectors is weak, and the supply may shrink after September due to Fed rate cuts and maintenance [15]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and domestic policies are beneficial to the price. The start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand shows signs of recovery in the peak season, but the production and transportation control during the September parade may affect inventory reduction. The possible reduction in recycled aluminum supply supports the consumption of primary aluminum [35]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is expected to be in a state of oversupply in the second half of the year, which suppresses the price. The environmental protection limit order for some alumina plants in Henan has only a short - term impact on production [36]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cancellation of tax - return policies for some recycled aluminum enterprises may lead to a decline in the capacity utilization rate of waste - using enterprises, providing support for the price of aluminum alloy [37]. Zinc - **Supply**: The supply is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc - ore price has an advantage, and the overseas zinc - ore supply is relatively loose. The increase in domestic processing fees in September may not be large, and the overseas refined - zinc increment is small [63]. - **Demand**: The demand is not significantly affected by the parade and remains stable. It is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October", and there is a strong positive correlation with black varieties [63]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory continues to decline, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic zinc prices is more obvious [63]. Nickel - **Market Trend**: The nickel and stainless - steel markets oscillated last week, with macro factors leading the market and little change in fundamentals. The support of nickel ore continues, and the upward space of nickel iron needs attention. The new - energy sector was relatively strong last week [76]. Tin - **Supply - demand**: Tin prices are rising due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to stop production for maintenance for 45 days starting from August 30. In August 2025, the output of refined tin decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly due to enterprise maintenance and the decrease in tin - concentrate imports in July [93]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the futures market declined last week, and the spot - market trading volume decreased. The production - scheduling data of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises increased by 5% month - on - month this month, providing support for the peak - season expectation. The futures market is expected to enter an oscillating and consolidating stage [111]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The downward space of industrial silicon is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with a relatively narrow price - fluctuation range [122]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, supported by the improved fundamentals from industrial integration [123].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures were closed on Monday, and will test the support level in the range of 4,350 - 4,400 ringgit after resuming trading on Tuesday, which is also the 20 - day moving average. After gradually bottoming out, supported by the slowdown in production growth and the increase in exports, crude palm oil futures have the opportunity to stop falling and rebound. With the overall bullish fundamentals, crude palm oil futures may return to 4,500 ringgit, and if they effectively stand above 4,500 ringgit, there may be a possibility of a rising trend. Overall, the view is that the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and attention should be paid to the support and the gain or loss of the 20 - day moving average [3] - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level correction, with the short - term testing the support of the 20 - day moving average around 9,200 yuan. If they can stop falling and stabilize here, driven by the rebound of Malaysian palm oil, Dalian palm oil futures may follow and start a rising trend, with the possibility of approaching 9,500 yuan. If they effectively stand above 9,500 yuan, there may be a new high. Similarly, the view is that the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and attention should be paid to whether they can stop falling effectively at the 20 - day moving average [3] Soybean Oil - CBOT soybean futures and BMD palm oil futures were closed. Dalian soybean oil is greatly affected by domestic fundamentals. With the start of schools, the procurement from school canteens and surrounding restaurants supports the market. However, the sufficient supply of Brazilian soybeans and the high operating rate of domestic factories create a situation of both bullish and bearish factors. Today, the January contract of Dalian soybean oil fluctuated narrowly above 8,300 yuan. From the international perspective, as the US soybean harvest is approaching and the Sino - US negotiations are under focus, if the negotiation result is poor, CBOT soybeans and soybean oil may fall further, dragging down Dalian soybean oil. The January contract may fall below 8,300 yuan to 8,200 yuan. After this decline, the expected increase in demand will boost the price again. If the international related varieties do not continue to fall, Dalian soybean oil will rise again after a period of volatile adjustment [4] Bean Meal - Spot market: The near - term basis has fully shifted to the January contract. The fixed - price of oil mills has increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton following the market, and some traders are strongly willing to hold up prices. Since the concentrated delivery and inventory transfer of oil mills at the end of August have just ended and the September contract has entered the execution period, feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the market trading volume is average. Most buyers prefer to purchase the long - term contracts from January to May 2026 at low prices. The short - term spot price center has moved up, and it is expected to operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton [16] Group 3: Summary by Directory Oil Price and Spread - **Oil monthly and inter - variety spreads**: P 1 - 5 is 238 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; Y - P 01 is - 958 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan; etc. [5] - **Palm oil futures and spot daily prices**: Palm oil 01 is 9,384 yuan/ton, up 0.73%; BMD palm oil main contract is 4,380 ringgit/ton, down 1.55%; etc. [7] - **Soybean oil futures and spot daily prices**: Soybean oil 01 is 8,348 yuan/ton, down 0.03%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 52.1 cents/pound, down 0.52%; etc. [13] Oilseed Futures Price - **Oilseed futures prices**: Bean meal 01 closed at 3,054, down 1, or - 0.03%; CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1,053, up 4.75, or 0.45%; etc. [17] - **Bean and rapeseed meal spreads**: M01 - 05 spread is 235, unchanged; RM01 - 05 spread is 89, up 14; etc. [18] Other Information - **International soybean crushing profit**: The report shows the historical data of international soybean crushing profit and Chinese imported rapeseed crushing profit [32]

Group 1: Sugar Market Core View - Domestic sugar import pressure persists. In July, sugar imports increased significantly, and the arrival of processed sugar at ports from August to September will impact the spot market. Sugar enterprises in Guangxi and Yunnan have lowered their spot quotes. Internationally, the estimated output of the new sugar - cane season in the central - southern region of Brazil has been revised down, but India's strong production increase expectation, combined with the continuous peak of Brazil's sugar - cane crushing, limits the rebound space of raw sugar, and there is a lack of short - term upward drivers [3]. Market Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 1, 2025, SR01 closed at 5609 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.09% and a weekly decrease of 1.39%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - **Sugar Basis**: On August 29, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 356 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 48 yuan and a weekly increase of 56 yuan. The basis of different regions and contracts had different changes [9]. - **Sugar Import Prices**: On September 1, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4552 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 13 yuan and a weekly decrease of 11 yuan. The out - of - quota price was 5786 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 17 yuan and a weekly decrease of 13 yuan. Similar price changes were seen in Thai sugar imports [12]. Group 2: Cotton Market Core View - Xinjiang's new cotton has entered the concentrated boll - opening stage, and the overall picking time is expected to be earlier than last year. Attention should be paid to the rainfall in September. Continuous rainy days may affect cotton quality and harvesting progress. As of now, the weather forecast shows that the temperature in Xinjiang may drop in early September, and there may be precipitation in northern Xinjiang in the first ten - day period, which may be unfavorable for boll - opening. This year, there has been a large amount of pre - sales of new cotton, with some pre - sale prices around 6.3 yuan/kg. Downstream, with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the inventory of finished products has been further reduced, but the profit has not been significantly repaired, and the overall downstream confidence is still insufficient, with a lack of orders [14]. Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 1, 2025, the closing price of Cotton 01 was 14025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 215 yuan or 1.51%. Other cotton and cotton yarn contracts also showed different degrees of decline [15]. - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1088 yuan/ton with no change on September 1, 2025. Other spreads such as cotton 01 - 05, cotton 05 - 09, etc., also had corresponding values [16]. Group 3: Jujube Market Core View - On the basis of last year's high - yield, the output of gray jujubes in the new year may decline significantly year - on - year, but the decline compared to normal years may be relatively small. Before the jujubes are harvested, there may still be market speculation. Attention should be paid to the weather changes in the production areas. If the decline in production does not further expand, with the supply of high - inventory old jujubes, the jujube price may still face downward pressure [19]. Group 4: Apple Market Core View - Under the impact of seasonal fruits, the sales speed of apples is limited. In Shandong, due to the busy farming season, the packaging volume is limited. In Shaanxi, the apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared of inventory. For new - season apples, the harvest of paper - bag Gala apples is nearly over, and early - maturing Fuji apples are gradually on the market, but the fruit size is still small [24]. Market Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 1, 2025, the closing price of AP01 was 8261 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.45% and a weekly increase of 2.57%. Different apple futures contracts and spot prices showed different price changes and trends [25].

【国内市场】 现货报价：南宁中间商站台报价6000元/吨。昆明中间商报价5770-5940元/吨。 7月我国进口食糖74.43万吨，环比增长75.29%，同比增长76.44%，其中64.44万吨来自于巴西。7月我国进口糖浆和预混粉15.97万吨，同比下降6.86万吨，但环比 继续增加，创年内新高。 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本 ...

Group 1: Report Core Views - Northern regional pig prices have been rising continuously. The reduction in the quantity of pigs sold by enterprises has driven up pig prices, with the increase exceeding expectations. The enthusiasm of individual farmers and second - fattening operators to sell pigs has increased, mainly to digest large - weight pig sources, and the price has been stable with limited changes. Slaughterhouse slaughter volume has increased steadily but slowly due to the reduction in enterprise supply [2]. - Most southern markets have seen rising prices. The limited quantity of pigs sold by breeding enterprises has reduced the supply, supporting the market price increase. Attention should be paid to the changes in the enterprise - side slaughter rhythm in recent days [2]. - The off - season supply has ended, and there may be a pattern of both supply and demand increasing in September. However, the weight - loss effect of pig enterprises in the early stage is obvious, which may reduce the supply pressure in September. Moreover, the price difference between standard and fat pigs has always maintained a certain profit for raising large pigs, so there is always room for second - fattening to enter the market [3] Group 2: Data Presented in the Report - The report presents data on various aspects of the pig industry, including the average price of pig slaughter, the seasonal number of pig warehouse receipts, the impact of the number of breeding sows on pig prices 10 months later, the comparison between national and Henan pig prices, the change in pig inventory structure, the average weight of pig slaughter, the PSY production index of breeding sows, the cold - storage rate of frozen pork, the average price of culled sows, pig slaughter volume, the number of culled breeding sows, the seasonal profit of purchased pigs, the seasonal profit of self - raised pigs, the seasonal gross profit of pig slaughter, the开工率 of key pig slaughter enterprises, and the seasonal average price of piglets [4][5][6]

Core View - The decline in port inventory and the stabilization of the cost side support a short - term rebound, but the increase in supply and warehouse receipt pressure restrict the upside space, and the near - strong and far - weak structure continues [4] - Weekly port inventory decreased on a week - on - week basis. The decline in import arrivals eased supply pressure and supported spot sentiment [3] - The stabilization of crude oil and the maintained advantage of the naphtha - propane spread provided short - term support for chemical demand [3] - The resumption of refinery production drove a week - on - week increase in the commercial volume, and the pattern of loose supply continued [3] - The PG2509 contract faced the pressure of historical high - level warehouse receipts, and the delivery contradiction remained unresolved, limiting the rebound space of the near - month contract [3] Data Charts - The report includes data charts on propane, such as the Far East CIF price FEI, FEI and Brent ratio, PDH profit/operating rate, FEI/MOPJ spread, FEI discount, Middle East FOB discount, US FOB price, MB and WTI ratio, VLGC freight, US propane weekly production, import volume, inventory, and export volume [5][9][12][15][17]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View High inventory and increased supply suppress the price, but the Indian tender expectation and cost support limit a significant decline. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Points - India's NFL launched a new tender for 2 million tons (bid closing on September 2nd), and the potential export demand boosts market confidence, with short - term sentiment being positive [4]. - The price of thermal coal is rising steadily, the loss of the fixed - bed process is expanding, and the cost support is strengthening marginally [4]. - The total inventory of urea enterprises continues to increase, reaching the peak in the same period in the past five years, which restricts the upside [4]. - The weekly output is increasing, and new production capacity is planned to be released from August to September, so the supply pressure remains [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: The total inventory of urea enterprises continues to increase, reaching the peak in the same period in the past five years [4]. There are also data on China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, etc. [7][8] - **Futures and Spot Price**: Data on urea futures main - contract trading volume, open interest, warehouse receipts, as well as spot prices in Henan and Shandong, and related basis and price differences are presented [10][15][19] - **Production Cost and Profit**: Data on the production cost and profit of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural gas, and water - coal slurry gasification methods are provided [27][29] - **Production - related Data**: Information on production enterprise's backlog order days, capacity utilization rate, total daily output, and new production capacity plan is included [32][34] - **Compound Fertilizer**: Data on compound fertilizer's capacity utilization rate, inventory, production cost, and production gross profit are provided [39] - **External Market and Cost - related**: Data on the FOB prices of urea in the Middle East and China, as well as thermal coal spot prices and port inventory are presented [43][44][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are supported by a weakening US dollar index, an 87.2% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, mixed labor - market data, and Middle - East geopolitical tensions [3]. - Copper prices face upward pressure from the US dollar index and demand feedback at high prices, but are supported by increasing downstream acceptance, with a target support price of 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short - term due to dovish Fed signals and increasing downstream restocking, while alumina is expected to oscillate weakly due to supply surpluses [33]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with supply in a surplus state, stable demand, and potential risks of a short squeeze in LME inventories [62]. - The nickel industry shows stability in nickel ore, firmness in nickel iron, and an uncertain outlook for stainless steel and nickel sulfate, with attention on the September rate - cut expectation [77]. - Tin prices may rise due to falling social inventories and decent demand from solder enterprises [92]. - Carbonate lithium prices may have short - term rebound opportunities if there are supply disruptions, but the long - term supply - demand situation remains loose [103]. - Industrial silicon is in a wait - and - see state, with its开工 rate potentially peaking, and polysilicon requires attention to industry policies [111]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Supported by a low - interest - rate environment, geopolitical risks, and economic data, pushing up prices [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily view provided, but multiple data charts on prices, spreads, and inventories are presented [4][6][11]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term upward pressure and downward support coexist, with a target support price of 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - **Market Data**: Various copper futures and spot prices show daily increases, with different price changes in different contracts [16][19]. - **Inventory and Spread**: LME copper inventory increased by 1.19% to 157,950 tons, and the scrap - refined copper spread remained stable [15][31]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Short - term upward - biased oscillation due to macro and demand factors [33]. - **Alumina**: Weak short - term oscillation due to supply surpluses, with a support range of 3000 - 3050 yuan per ton and a reference upper range of 3250 - 3300 yuan per ton [33]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by tight scrap - aluminum supply and tax - policy changes, with a price spread of 400 - 500 yuan per ton from aluminum [34]. 3.4 Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is in a surplus state, demand is stable, and there is a potential short - squeeze risk in LME inventories [62]. - **Price Movement**: LME zinc prices rose by 0.73% to 2781 dollars per ton, while domestic zinc prices declined slightly [63]. 3.5 Nickel - **Nickel Ore**: Stable, with a possible slight decline in the Indonesian benchmark price in September [77]. - **Nickel Iron**: Relatively firm, with some large - scale transactions above 940 [77]. - **Stainless Steel and Nickel Sulfate**: Both show oscillating trends, with attention on the September - October peak season [77]. 3.6 Tin - **Price Outlook**: May rise due to falling social inventories and decent demand from solder enterprises [92]. - **Market Data**: Tin futures prices increased, with the Shanghai tin main contract rising 2.19% to 278,650 yuan per ton [93]. 3.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Price Outlook**: Short - term potential for price rebounds with supply disruptions, but long - term supply - demand remains loose [103]. - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices declined, with the main carbonate lithium futures contract dropping 960 yuan to 77,180 yuan per ton [104][106]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Market Outlook**: Suggest a wait - and - see approach, with the开工 rate potentially peaking [111]. - **Market Data**: Spot and futures prices declined, with the industrial silicon main contract dropping 2.1% to 8390 yuan per ton [112][115].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The processing fee of copper concentrates has fallen into the negative range, and Codelco in Chile has lowered its annual production forecast, intensifying supply concerns [4]. - The social inventory has decreased this week, and the absolute quantity remains at a low level. The approaching peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" drive the expectation of marginal improvement in demand [4]. - The three major exchanges, LME, COMEX, and SHFE, have collectively accumulated inventory, reflecting weak terminal consumption during the off - season [4]. - The uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm has increased, and the decline in market sentiment suppresses the support of the financial attribute [4]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper are mixed, with the contradiction between tight ore supply and inventory accumulation coexisting. Coupled with the repeated macro - drivers, it will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, waiting for the verification of peak - season demand and the clarification of policy signals [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) | Futures Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Position | Weekly Position Change | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main Contract | 79,410 yuan/ton | +0.91% | 173,826 | +52,924 | 71,061 | | Shanghai Copper Index Weighted | 79,394 yuan/ton | +0.95% | 479,332 | +18,695 | 156,498 | | International Copper | 70,490 yuan/ton | +1.08% | 3,755 | -217 | 4,869 | | LME Copper 3 - month | $9,839.5/ton | +1.22% | 239,014 | -38,282 | 14,271 | | COMEX Copper | $454.45/lb | +2.17% | 105,404 | +64,381 | 28,789 | [6] 3.2 Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 79,390 | +560 | +0.71% | | Shanghai Wumaohui | yuan/ton | 79,355 | +530 | +0.67% | | Guangdong Southern Storage | yuan/ton | 79,220 | +470 | +0.6% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 79,450 | +500 | +0.63% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 250 | +100 | +66.67% | | Shanghai Wumaohui Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 185 | +50 | +37.04% | | Guangdong Southern Storage Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 210 | +45 | +27.27% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 175 | +15 | +9.38% | | LME Copper (Spot/3 - month) Premium/Discount | $/ton | -82.79 | +7.96 | -8.77% | | LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) Premium/Discount | $/ton | -167.53 | -1.05 | +0.63% | [11][12] 3.3 Advanced Copper Data (Weekly) | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | 330.65 | +95.84 | +40.82% | | Copper Concentrate TC | $/ton | -41.06 | -2.86 | +7.49% | | Copper - Aluminum Ratio | Ratio | 3.8002 | -0.0087 | -0.23% | | Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference | yuan/ton | 1,252.66 | +218.62 | +21.14% | [13] 3.4 Copper Inventory (Weekly) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Value | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 21,412 | -2,736 | -11.33% | | International Copper Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 5,597 | -528 | -8.62% | | Shanghai Copper Inventory | tons | 79,748 | -1,950 | -2.39% | | LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 144,850 | -750 | -0.52% | | LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipt | tons | 13,100 | +2,350 | +21.86% | | LME Copper Inventory | tons | 157,950 | +1,600 | +1.02% | | COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 141,869 | +4,626 | +3.37% | | COMEX Copper Unregistered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 133,357 | -1,096 | -0.82% | | COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 275,226 | +3,530 | +1.3% | | Copper Ore Port Inventory | million tons | 47.3 | +5.1 | +12.09% | | Social Inventory | million tons | 41.82 | +0.43 | +1.04% | [19][21] 3.5 Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) | Production Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Production | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 127 | +14% | 862.3 | +9.9% | | Copper Products Production | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 216.9 | +8.3% | 1423.7 | +9.4% | [24] 3.6 Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) | Capacity Type | Date | Unit | Annual Total Capacity | Capacity Utilization | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 1,584 | 61.32% | -1% | -0.85% | | Scrap Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 819 | 26.73% | -5.28% | -3.43% | | Copper Plate and Strip Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 359 | 65.73% | -3% | -5.66% | | Copper Bar Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 228.65 | 50.45% | -1.07% | -1.47% | | Copper Tube Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 278.3 | 67.88% | -4.37% | +3.83% | [26] 3.7 Copper Element Imports (Monthly) | Import Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Concentrate Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 256.0072 | +18% | 1,731.7445 | +8% | | Anode Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 84,217 | +19% | 466,925 | -12% | | Cathode Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 296,896 | +8% | 1,943,043 | -6% | | Scrap Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 190,078 | -2% | 1,335,483 | -1% | | Copper Products Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 480,000 | +10% | 3,110,000 | -2.6% | [30]