Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot processing fee of copper concentrate remains at a low level of -$40 per ton. Disruptions such as the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia continue, and the global shortage of copper ore supports copper prices [4]. - The copper consumption in power, new energy vehicles, and AI data centers has increased significantly, offsetting the weakness in traditional sectors, and the demand is relatively resilient [4]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is volatile, and the strengthening of the US dollar increases the cost of purchasing copper. The non - farm payrolls in the US in September exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, intensifying concerns about liquidity [4]. - The LME copper inventory increased by 16.08% week - on - week to 158,000 tons, reflecting weak overseas demand and suppressing the rebound of copper prices [4]. - The game between supply and demand continues, with the contradiction between supply shortage and high inventory. In the short term, copper prices will remain in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and the rhythm of terminal restocking [5]. 3. Summary by Categories Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) | Futures Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Open Interest | Weekly Change in Open Interest | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main Contract | 87,430 | 2.07% | 218,257 | 28,039 | 94,508 | | Shanghai Copper Index Weighted | 87,377 | 2.04% | 546,511 | 29,036 | 194,048 | | International Copper | 78,770 | 3.21% | 1,289 | - 2,040 | 2,580 | | LME Copper 3 - month | 10,930 | 2.28% | 239,014 | - 38,282 | 10,519 | | COMEX Copper | 516.25 | 4.22% | 134,293 | 65,265 | 12,165 | [6] Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 87,400 | 1,585 | 1.85% | | Shanghai Wumaomao | Yuan/ton | 87,360 | 1,490 | 1.74% | | Guangdong Nanchu | Yuan/ton | 87,390 | 1,490 | 1.73% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 87,440 | 1,460 | 1.7% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 110 | 20 | 22.22% | | Shanghai Wumaomao Premium | Yuan/ton | 65 | 5 | 8.33% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | Yuan/ton | 105 | 20 | 23.53% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 115 | 15 | 15% | | LME Copper (Spot/3 - month) Premium | US dollars/ton | 16.56 | 35.45 | - 187.67% | | LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) Premium | US dollars/ton | 166.25 | 48.57 | 41.27% | [11][12] Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit and Loss | Yuan/ton | - 860.94 | - 370.97 | 75.71% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 42.15 | - 0.43 | 1.03% | | Copper - Aluminum Ratio | Ratio | 4.0517 | 0.0447 | 1.12% | | Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference | Yuan/ton | 3,543.83 | 868.94 | 32.49% | [13] Copper Inventory Data (Weekly) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Value | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipt: Total | Tons | 35,244 | - 14,546 | - 29.21% | | International Copper Warehouse Receipt: Total | Tons | 5,502 | - 700 | - 11.29% | | Shanghai Copper Inventory | Tons | 97,930 | - 12,673 | - 11.46% | | LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 151,100 | 2,650 | 1.79% | | LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 6,075 | - 3,400 | - 35.88% | | LME Copper Inventory | Tons | 157,175 | - 750 | - 0.47% | | COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 194,336 | 20,085 | 11.53% | | COMEX Copper Unregistered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 223,330 | 5,903 | 2.71% | | COMEX Copper Inventory | Tons | 417,666 | 25,988 | 6.64% | | Copper Ore Port Inventory | 10,000 tons | 59.6 | 6.6 | 12.45% | | Social Inventory | 10,000 tons | 41.82 | 0.43 | 1.04% | [18][21] Copper Mid - stream Production Data (Monthly) | Production Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Production | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 120.4 | 8.9 | 1,229.5 | 9.7 | | Copper Products Production | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 200.4 | - 3.3 | 2,012.4 | 5.9 | [24] Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization Data (Monthly) | Capacity Type | Date | Unit | Annual Total Capacity | Capacity Utilization | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 1,584 | 56.2 | - 9.03 | - 5.35 | | Scrap Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 819 | 24.11 | - 1.26 | - 1.69 | | Copper Plate and Strip Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 359 | 63.84 | - 2.4 | - 8.4 | | Copper Bar Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 228.65 | 50.13 | - 0.77 | 0.1 | | Copper Tube Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 278.3 | 52.57 | - 6.87 | - 15.63 | [26] Copper Element Import Data (Monthly) | Import Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Concentrate Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 245.1487 | 6 | 2,511.8228 | 8 | | Anode Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 55,239 | - 8 | 634,011 | - 15 | | Cathode Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 279,944 | - 22 | 2,817,921 | - 6 | | Scrap Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 196,607 | 7 | 1,895,530 | 2 | | Copper Products Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 440,000 | - 13.5 | 4,460,000 | - 3.1 | [30]

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 黑色系周报—铁矿石 2025年11月28日 研究员：李海啸 交易咨询：Z0019568 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 http://www.eafutures .com 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完 整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司 不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下 做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者 （您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成 的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。 发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发 的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的 引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

Report Subject and Date - Subject: Black Series Weekly Report - Steel Products [2] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In this period, the production, inventory, and apparent demand of rebar decreased; the production of hot-rolled coils increased, while inventory and apparent demand decreased. The apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased month-on-month. The rebar 2601 contract fluctuated, and the hot-rolled coil 2601 contract also fluctuated [5] Summary by Directory 1. Macro - Not provided in the content 2. Supply - In October 2025, China exported 9.782 million tons of steel products, a month-on-month decrease of 683,000 tons or 6.5%; the average price was $684.4 per ton, a month-on-month increase of $5.3 or 0.8%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.024 million tons or 6.6% [7] - The molten iron output was 2346800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 8100 tons [7] - The output of the five major steel products was 8.5571 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 58000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 57900 tons. The rebar output was 2.0608 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18800 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 218000 tons; the hot-rolled coil output was 3.1901 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 30000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 129200 tons [7] - The EAF operating rate was 69.13%, with no month-on-month change [7] 3. Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 14.0081 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 322900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 2.2734 million tons. The rebar inventory was 5.3148 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 218600 tons and a year-on-year increase of 838400 tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 4.009 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12100 tons and a year-on-year increase of 951800 tons [7] 4. Demand - The weekly apparent demand of the five major steel products was 8.88 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61600 tons and a year-on-year increase of 104900 tons [7]

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 黑色系周报—双焦 2025年11月28日 研究员：李海啸 交易咨询：Z0019568 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 http://www.eafutures .com 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确 性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、 结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致 的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信 息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用 本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。 复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进 行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报 告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: November 28, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views Bullish Factors - Multiple domestic policies to stabilize growth have been introduced, boosting the long - term zinc consumption outlook and warming market sentiment [3] - Some smelters are undergoing regular maintenance, which is expected to slightly affect domestic refined zinc production [3] Bearish Factors - Environmental protection policies in northern regions restrict the operation of some galvanized enterprises, dragging down downstream actual demand [3] - The processing fees for imported zinc concentrates remain high, with sufficient raw material supply for the smelting end and decent profits [3] Trading Advice - Market is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, with policy expectations competing against weak reality. It is advisable to closely monitor inventory changes and macro - sentiment [3] Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - Data on galvanized sheet coil market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and steel mill weekly production are presented in a seasonal chart. The inventory and production data are shown from 2021 - 2025, and the market sentiment index is from 2023 - 2025 [4] - Seasonal charts of net exports of galvanized sheet (strip), die - cast zinc alloy, color - coated sheet (strip), and zinc oxide are provided, with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][8][9][10] - Charts on real - estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, unsold area, and land and housing transaction data are presented, including 100 - major - city land transaction area and 30 - major - city housing transaction volume, with data from different time periods [11][13][15] - Chart on infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion is presented, showing cumulative year - on - year data for different sectors from 2020 - 2025 [16][17] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Seasonal charts of zinc concentrate monthly import volume, zinc concentrate TC, SMM zinc ingot monthly production, China's zinc ingot monthly production plus import volume, zinc concentrate raw - material inventory days, and various zinc inventories (LME, SHFE, etc.) are provided, with data from 2021 - 2025 [19][21][23][24][27] - Chart on refined zinc enterprise production profit and processing fees is presented, showing data from 2022 - 2024 [23] Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts on domestic and international zinc price trends, Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume and open interest, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, LME zinc premium/discount, zinc ingot basis in three locations, and Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality are provided, with data covering different time periods from 2022 - 2025 [30][31][32][34][36]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views Bullish Factors - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is continuously tight due to the rainy season, providing support at the cost end [3] - Some domestic ferronickel enterprises are undergoing maintenance, leading to an expected partial contraction in supply [3] Bearish Factors - The demand for downstream stainless steel is weak, with low procurement enthusiasm for raw materials [3] - The new production capacity of electrolytic nickel continues to be released, and the overall supply pressure remains [3] Trading Advisory Views - It is recommended to closely monitor the consumption of downstream stainless steel and the destocking of inventories to judge whether the demand side can be effectively improved [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - The latest values of Shanghai Nickel main contract, consecutive one, consecutive two, and consecutive three are 116,900 yuan/ton, 116,900 yuan/ton, 117,110 yuan/ton, and 117,320 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1.19%, 2.50%, 2.52%, and 2.52% [4] - LME Nickel 3M is at 14,840 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.44% [4] - The trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts decreased by 34.55%, 13.4%, and 0.70% respectively [4] Stainless Steel Futures - The latest values of stainless steel main contract, consecutive one, consecutive two, and consecutive three are 12,410 yuan/ton, 12,410 yuan/ton, 12,480 yuan/ton, and 12,540 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1%, 0.98%, 0.89%, and 0.84% [5] - The trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts decreased by 14.16%, 25.08%, and 2.23% respectively [5] Spot Prices - The latest prices of Jinchuan Nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel are 121,300 yuan/ton, 117,050 yuan/ton, 119,000 yuan/ton, 119,100 yuan/ton, and 116,750 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 0.61%, 0.64%, 0.71%, 0.63%, and 0.76% [5] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 52,259 tons, a decrease of 855 tons; LME nickel inventory is 255,450 tons, an increase of 930 tons [7] - Stainless steel social inventory is 946 tons, an increase of 6 tons; ferronickel inventory is 30,225 tons, an increase of 661 tons [7] Charts and Graphs - The report includes multiple charts and graphs showing the historical prices, production, and inventory data of nickel and stainless steel, such as the price trends of Shanghai Nickel and LME Nickel, the production of Chinese refined nickel, and the inventory of domestic social nickel and LME nickel [8][14][15]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metal Futures - November 28, 2025 [1] Core Views Gold AU - Trade war and economic recession curb consumption demand for gold and silver jewelry; precious metal demand comes from sovereign funds' de-dollarization [2]. - US interest rate cuts, dollar depreciation, and lower yield curves support precious metals; domestic gold warehouse receipts rise, US gold warehouse receipts fall, and domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts drop sharply [2]. Silver AG - Similar to gold, trade war and economic recession impact jewelry consumption; demand from de - dollarization and interest - rate factors support prices; changes in warehouse receipts are the same as gold [4] Summary by Directory One - week Policy and Fundamental Review - Europe proposed a counter - proposal including US protection, Ukraine's non - military recovery of occupied territories, and conditions for Ukraine's NATO membership [9]. - Fed officials' views on interest rate cuts vary; some see room for cuts, others are cautious about December cuts but expect future cuts [9]. - US economic data shows mixed performance, with some indices at multi - month lows or highs, and private sector job losses [9]. - Trump administration prepares tariff backup plans; US may take new actions against Venezuela; and there are various international events such as Japan's economic stimulus and Italy's rating upgrade [9]. Gold Market Tracking - COMEX gold futures and options: long positions are 122,450, short positions are 35,978; ETF and other positions and their changes are also presented [10]. - Gold ETF total holdings, SPDR and iShares holdings, and changes in futures positions and warehouse receipts are tracked over time [10][11][13]. Silver Market Tracking - COMEX silver futures and options: long positions are 44,277, short positions are 27,801; ETF and other positions and their changes are shown [15]. - Silver ETF total holdings, SLV holdings, and changes in futures positions and warehouse receipts are tracked over time [15][16][18]. Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - Import gold and silver hedging profit margins are tracked over time, showing fluctuations [21]. Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - ICE dollar index non - commercial net long positions and total positions are tracked over time [23]. US Treasury Futures Position Tracking - Non - commercial net long positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury futures and options, as well as total positions, are tracked over time [26][27][28]. US Inflation Expectation - 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year break - even inflation rates are presented over a period [31]. US Real Interest Rate - 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury real yield curves are shown over a long - term period [33]. US Interest Rate Term Structure - US Treasury interest rates, real interest rates, and inflation expectations for different maturities are presented [35][36]. US and Major Non - US Countries' 2 - year Treasury Yield Spreads - Yield spreads between US 2 - year Treasury and those of UK, Japan, China, and Germany are tracked over time [38]

国债衍生品周报 2025/11/28 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The ISO has raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season. Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of November increased year - on - year. India's sugar production is clear, with an export quota lower than market expectations and domestic prices higher than overseas, making exports less likely. China's sugar imports in October increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures had a corrective rebound but the weak situation remains unchanged [3]. - **Cotton**: The current domestic cotton supply pressure is gradually increasing, but downstream demand has resilience. Attention should be paid to the hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 and subsequent order changes [13]. - **Apple**: The ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is gradually ending, concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. The warehousing work is in the later stage. In ground trading, Shandong's Qixia and Zhaoyuan have not completed all the fruit picking, with many buyers. In terms of warehousing progress, Gansu's cold - storage apples have started to be sold, Shaanxi's warehousing is almost finished, and Shandong's apples will gradually be out of storage next week. Recently, small apples are selling well [16]. - **Jujube**: The new - season jujubes are about to enter the concentrated picking stage. The current new - season yield is still the core point of market game. The southern Xinjiang region has a yield reduction, but the extent is hard to determine. Affected by factors such as moisture and single - jujube weight, farmers' yield estimates may be inaccurate. In the short term, jujube prices fluctuate greatly due to capital game, but with the yield reduction and the start of the acquisition season, the downside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent commodity rate and acquisition situation of new jujubes [25]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, SR01 closed at 5,400 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.06% and a weekly increase of 0.88%. SB closed at 15.12 with a daily increase of 1.48% and a weekly increase of 3.00%. There are also detailed records of price differences between different contracts [4]. - **Basis**: On November 27, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 67 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 24 yuan and a weekly decline of 17 yuan. Similar data are provided for other combinations [8]. - **Import Prices**: On November 28, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4,157 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 43 yuan and a weekly increase of 125 yuan; the out - of - quota price was 5,271 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 57 yuan and a weekly increase of 164 yuan. Similar data are provided for Thai sugar imports [11]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On November 28, 2025, Cotton 01 closed at 13,725 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan or 0.62% for the day. Cotton 05 closed at 13,685 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.59% for the day. Cotton 09 closed at 13,790 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.18% for the day [13]. - **Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1,171 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan for the day. The price difference between Cotton 01 - 05 was 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan for the day [13]. Apple - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On November 28, 2025, AP01 closed at 9,450 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.83% and a weekly increase of 0.11%. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.75 yuan/jin, with no daily or weekly change [17]. - **Price Differences**: The price difference between AP01 - 05 was - 83 yuan/ton, with a significant change rate. The main contract basis was - 488 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 8.44% and a weekly decline of 19.87% [18]. Jujube - **Futures Month - to - Month Spreads**: The jujube futures price differences between 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 contracts show different trends over time, with data from 2021 - 2025 provided [26][28]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: The sum of jujube warehouse receipts and effective forecasts shows trends from 2021 - 2025 [28]. - **Price Trends**: The price trends of main production areas in Xinjiang and main sales areas are presented, including data from 2022 - 2025 [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The operating range of rebar may be between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coil may be between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the possible negative feedback caused by the decline in the profit rate of steel enterprises [3] - Recently, iron ore prices have been running strongly, and the short - term trend is dominated by coking coal. The weakening of coking coal prices due to domestic supply - guarantee and price - stabilization policies and the resumption of Mongolian coal shipments provides support for iron ore prices by repairing steel mill profits. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are balanced, with high - level fluctuations in shipments and stable hot metal production. The structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, strong spot prices, and a widening basis. Macroeconomically, the expectation of a US interest rate cut has been revised, increasing the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a stock market rebound and a recovery in market risk appetite [22] - The main coking coal contract has been continuously hitting new lows recently, and the support at the lower edge of the shock range is being tested. If it is broken, the wide - range shock pattern that has lasted for a quarter may end. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are weakening. The domestic mine production is stable. The import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and seaborne coal also has a price advantage, resulting in a marginal relaxation of the overall coking coal supply. On the demand side, due to the high spot price and the increasing expectation of coke price cuts, downstream procurement is cautious, leading to a marginal accumulation of upstream mine inventory. In the short term, the spot price will still be under pressure. In the medium - term, the bottom support for coking coal is relatively clear. On the one hand, there is still a rigid demand for winter storage, and price corrections will stimulate restocking demand. On the other hand, the macro - policy expectations in the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the "anti - deflation" policy will build a bottom support for far - month contracts [31] - Ferroalloys are facing the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. With the impact of supply - guarantee policies on coking coal prices, the cost center may shift downwards. However, the supply side maintains a trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [47] - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is solid, the valuation lacks upward elasticity without a trend - like production cut. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, with relatively stable daily melting. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [60] - Unexpected cold repairs of glass production lines have begun to increase, and the expectation of cold repairs in December has resurfaced, but the implementation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the pricing and expectation of far - month contracts. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key is whether there is still an expectation of price cuts in Hubei. In reality, the glass spot market is weak, with continuous price cuts in Hubei and Shahe, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high. With the arrival of the off - season, the spot market is under great pressure and is prone to negative feedback. Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract is at a high level, and the game may continue until near the delivery [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,154 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the 05 contract was 3,288 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The rebar 01 - 05 spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 spread was 14 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on November 28, 2025, was 3,291 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day. The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 140 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 12 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 on November 28, 2025, unchanged from the previous day; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also unchanged [19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 794 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 768 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 09 contract was 743.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan. The 01 basis was - 0.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan [23] - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production on November 28, 2025, was 234.68 thousand tons, down 1.6 thousand tons from the previous week. The 45 - port desilting volume was 3.3058 million tons, up 0.66 million tons from the previous week. The global shipment volume was 3.2784 billion tons, down 238 million tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On November 28, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 154 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 223 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The盘面 coking profit was - 50 yuan/ton, down 20.422 yuan from the previous day [35] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal on November 28, 2025, was 1,580 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan from the previous week. The spot price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1,480 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The immediate coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 60 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 36 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48] - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 224 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [49] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,235 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,303 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,177 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [61] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The heavy soda ash market price in North China on November 28, 2025, was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The difference between heavy and light soda ash in North China was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [61] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,223 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,053 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [85] - **Daily Sales Data**: On November 27, 2025, the sales rate in Shahe was 229, in Hubei was 174, in East China was 110, and in South China was 103 [86]