Core Views - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures tumbled due to increased inventory to 220 million tons in the MPOB report and a surprise drop in the first 10-day export data, with short-term support at 4,400 ringgit and potential further decline if it breaks [3]. - Dalian palm oil futures declined following the drop in Malaysian palm oil, with short-term support at 9,200 yuan and strong support at 9,000 yuan, and it's in a 4-wave adjustment [3]. - The MPOB monthly report showed consecutive increases in Malaysian palm oil inventory and reduced exports in early September, and the approaching US soybean harvest and expected high yield pressured the CBOT soybean market and domestic soybean oil. The short-term support for the Dalian soybean oil 1-month contract is 8,200 yuan, and there's a chance of a rebound after the decline [4]. - The soybean meal market lacks clear themes, with the main contract oscillating between 3,030 - 3,080 yuan, and the spot price ranging from 2,950 - 3,200 yuan [15]. Oil Price Information Palm Oil | Name | Unit | Latest Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | Yuan/ton | 9,244 | -2.55% | | Palm Oil 05 | Yuan/ton | 9,040 | -2.44% | | Palm Oil 09 | Yuan/ton | 9,446 | -0.36% | | BMD Palm Oil Main | Ringgit/ton | 4,416 | -1.41% | | Guangzhou 24-Degree Palm Oil | Yuan/ton | 9,270 | -130 | | Guangzhou 24-Degree Basis | Yuan/ton | -86 | 20 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 497.126 | -1.168 | | International毛豆 - Crude Palm | US dollars/ton | -46.35 | 0 | [6] Soybean Oil | Name | Unit | Latest Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | Yuan/ton | 8,256 | -0.29% | | Soybean Oil 05 | Yuan/ton | 7,964 | -0.07% | | Soybean Oil 09 | Yuan/ton | 8,262 | 0% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main | US cents/pound | 50.39 | -1.96% | | Shandong First-Grade Soybean Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 8,420 | -100 | | Shandong First-Grade Soybean Oil Basis | Yuan/ton | 112 | 28 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 50.752 | -12.7168 | | Domestic First-Grade Soybean Oil - 24-Degree Palm Oil | Yuan/ton | -690 | -20 | [11] Oil Spread Information Month-to-Month and Variety Spreads | Spread | Unit | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 220 | 8 | | P 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | -214 | -148 | | P 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | -6 | 140 | | Y 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 296 | 4 | | Y 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | -342 | -46 | | Y 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 46 | 42 | | Y - P 01 | Yuan/ton | -1,078 | -28 | | Y - P 05 | Yuan/ton | -1,154 | -24 | | Y - P 09 | Yuan/ton | -1,026 | -126 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.7343 | 0.1% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.8971 | 0.17% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.7892 | 0.11% | | OI 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 324 | 9 | | OI 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | -453 | -43 | | OI 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 129 | 34 | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.8631 | -0.15% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.9564 | -0.34% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.9137 | 1.76% | [5] Oilseed Futures Price | Name | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3,066 | -9 | -0.29% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2,798 | -2 | -0.07% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3,031 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,533 | -17 | -0.67% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,405 | -3 | -0.12% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,565 | 15 | 0.59% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1,030.5 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1215 | -0.0012 | -0.02% | [16] Meal Spread Information | Spread | Price | Change | Spread | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 275 | 3 | RM01 - 05 | 142 | -2 | | M05 - 09 | -231 | -18 | RM05 - 09 | -142 | 42 | | M09 - 01 | -44 | 15 | RM09 - 01 | 0 | -40 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2,980 | -20 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | -75 | 6 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2,515 | 2 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | -35 | -6 | | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 485 | -2 | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 525 | -14 | [17][19]

昨日有消息称几内亚政府可能要求矿业公司建设本土冶炼厂，此举或影响西芒杜铁矿的发运预期，推动铁矿盘面大幅上涨，但目前事件仍存在较大不确定性。从交 易逻辑看，市场更倾向于解读为阅兵结束后钢厂复产补库，叠加本期巴西矿发运量下降，情绪面助推价格上行，当前铁水产量预计仍将快速回升至高位，而成材端 仍处于超季节性去库阶段，这种状态下应该收缩利润压供给，但旺季需求尚未被证伪，成材价格继续向下有阻碍，在这个维度下原料借机向上挤压利润。目前成材 仍受超季节性累库压制，盘面上行乏力。打破僵局需等待两类信号，一是旺季需求实质性改善，能够承接高供给并带动去库；二是供给端出现实际收缩，形成成本 强支撑。目前两者均未明朗，反内卷情绪也有所降温，预计近期盘面或仍呈现震荡偏弱，等待旺季需求验证。 | 螺纹、热卷盘面价格. | | | 螺纹、热卷月差. | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | | 螺纹钢01合约收盘价 | 3109 | 3123 | 螺纹01-05月差 | -47 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/09/10 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

LPG行业周报 2025/9/7 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责 ...

【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权力。所有本报告中使用的商标、服务标记及标记均为本公司的商标、服务标记及标记。 基本面及观点 基本面要点1：9月巴西、东南亚农需旺季启动，印度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a weak fundamental state with price upward pressure, but there are still expectations for peak - season demand. The short - term trend may be oscillatory, and future focus should be on actual demand and macro - policy trends [3]. - The current high price of iron ore is not sustainable due to weakening steel fundamentals, insufficient demand in the peak season, and pressure on steel mill profits [20]. - After the lifting of coking enterprise production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. The coke futures may still decline in the short term, and it is not recommended to short - allocate coking coal [32]. - Ferroalloys have bottom support but face upward pressure under the current situation of high production rates and weak downstream demand [51]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches and stable rigid demand [65]. - The glass market has near - term pressure, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The supply may slightly increase, and the market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus [93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3143 yuan/ton, up from 3117 yuan/ton on September 4. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil also had slight changes [4][7][10]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the parade, this week's pig iron production decreased significantly. After the parade, the iron ore price rebounded strongly, and the market believes that short - term production restrictions have limited impact on iron ore. The steel market has a weak fundamental state, but there are still expectations for peak - season demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts such as the 01, 05, and 09 contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao also had slight changes [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average pig iron production decreased by 11.29 tons this week compared to last week. The 45 - port ore inventory increased by 62.3 tons week - on - week. The global and Australia - Brazil iron ore shipments increased [26]. - **Market Analysis**: The current high price of iron ore is due to the resumption of steel mills' production after the parade and the weakening of coking coal. However, this upward trend is not sustainable due to the weakening steel fundamentals [20]. Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of coking coal and coke futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the coking coal 01 - 05 spread was - 72 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also had certain changes [38][39]. - **Market Analysis**: After the lifting of production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. The coke futures may still decline in the short term. The coking coal market has a relatively loose supply - demand structure, but the short - term surplus problem is not serious [32]. Ferroalloys - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese changed compared to the previous day. For example, the ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan from the previous day [52][56]. - **Market Analysis**: Ferroalloys have bottom support but face upward pressure under the current situation of high production rates and weak downstream demand. There is a possibility of production reduction due to falling profits [51]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of soda ash futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1387 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 2.21% [66]. - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The rigid demand is stable, and the cost of raw salt and coal is temporarily stable [65]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: On September 5, 2025, the prices and spreads of glass futures contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1287 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 4.13% [94]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market has near - term pressure, with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches. The supply may slightly increase, and the market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus [93].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - International raw sugar prices are suppressed by the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's new season, with a divergence in the estimated output in the central - southern region of Brazil between 39 million and 40.5 million tons, and uncertainty in the adjustment of the sugar - making ratio in the later stage of crushing. In China, Yunnan's industrial inventory at the end of August was 336,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.6%, and the spot price was lowered by 10 - 20 yuan. The large year - on - year increase in imported sugar in July exacerbated the supply pressure of processed sugar. The market focuses on the game between the low inventory of domestic sugar and the potential overstock of processed sugar during the transition period between the old and new crushing seasons, as well as the impact of Northern Hemisphere weather on the start of crushing [3]. Price and Spread - On September 5, 2025, SR01 closed at 5523 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.18% and a weekly decline of 1.45%. Other contracts also showed different degrees of decline [4]. - The basis of Nanning - SR01 on September 4, 2025, was 347 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 9 yuan and a weekly increase of 39 yuan. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was 312 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 24 yuan and a weekly increase of 84 yuan [10]. Import Price - On September 5, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian imported sugar was 4453 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 25 yuan and a weekly decline of 86 yuan. The out - of - quota price was 5656 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 33 yuan and a weekly decline of 113 yuan [13]. Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - Recently, the temperature in Xinjiang has been mild with little rainfall. The temperature has dropped this week. Xinjiang's new cotton has entered the concentrated boll - opening stage, and the growth progress is ahead of schedule. It is expected that the new cotton will be listed successively in late September. Rainfall may increase in mid - to - late September, especially in some southern Xinjiang regions, which may affect cotton quality and harvesting progress. Downstream, with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the inventory of finished products has been further reduced, but the profit has not been significantly repaired, and the overall confidence is still insufficient with a lack of orders [15]. Price and Spread - On September 5, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 14000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10 yuan and a decline rate of 0.07%. Cotton 05 closed at 13940 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10 yuan and a decline rate of 0.07% [16]. - The cotton basis was 1441 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 34 yuan. The spread between cotton 01 - 05 was 60 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan [17]. Group 4: Red Date Market Core View - On the basis of last year's bumper harvest, the output of grey dates in the new year may decline significantly year - on - year, but the decline may be smaller compared to normal years. There may still be speculation in the market before the dates are harvested. Pay attention to the weather changes in the production areas. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season is approaching, the overall downstream trading volume is average. If the decline in production does not further expand, the red date price will still face downward pressure under the supply of high inventory of old dates [21]. Group 5: Apple Market Core View - Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales speed of apples is limited. In Shandong, the number of packaged apples is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared. For the new - season apples, the harvest of paper - bag Gala is almost over, and early Fuji apples are gradually on the market, but the fruit size is still small. In the short term, the apple market still has some pressure to release [25]. Price and Spread - On September 5, 2025, AP01 closed at 8296 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.1% and a weekly decline of 0.02%. Other contracts also showed different degrees of price changes [26]. - The spread between AP01 - 05 was 51 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2% and a weekly decline of 32%. The main contract basis was 272 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 8.72% and a weekly increase of 13.33% [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: Affected by weak US employment data, the ADP employment in August only increased by 54,000, strengthening the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates in September. Multiple factors jointly support the strong operation of gold prices [3]. - **Copper**: The market focus is on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, personnel adjustment, independence issues, and bond - market risks. Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to relatively tight supply and the stimulus of US economic pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [17]. - **Aluminum**: In the short term, aluminum fluctuates with an upward bias, but there is pressure above. To break through the 21,000 pressure level, the peak - season expectations need to be fulfilled, demand should improve significantly, and inventory should start to decline. Alumina has insufficient upward drive in the short term, and its price is approaching the 2,880 yuan cost line. Cast aluminum alloy is more resilient due to cost support [37][38][39]. - **Zinc**: In the short term, zinc shows a pattern of being strong overseas and weak domestically. Observe macro and consumption factors, and it will mainly fluctuate [68]. - **Nickel**: Currently, the nickel ore price has a slight decline, other nickel products are basically stable, and the MHP benchmark price has an upward trend. Stainless - steel inventory has decreased for several weeks, and demand sentiment has improved in the peak season. Sulfuric - nickel prices are stable. Pay continuous attention to the impact of interest - rate cut expectations and the US dollar trend [83]. - **Tin**: In the short term, tin prices have an upward driving force due to tight supply, despite certain demand pressure [98]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current market is in an oscillating adjustment stage. If the conversion of orders to actual transactions is less than expected, the market may remain weakly oscillating; if the receiving demand is gradually released, prices may be supported [110]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: In the short term, industrial silicon prices are expected to be flat in September. In the medium - to - long term, they have an upward expectation. Polysilicon is in a "wide - range oscillation" state, and short - term price fluctuations due to news stimuli should be vigilant [119]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Weak US employment data, the signing of the US - Japan trade agreement, investigations into the Fed's independence, and the expansion of the US trade deficit support the strong operation of gold prices [3]. - **Market Data**: Various data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, inventory, and long - term fund positions are presented [4][12][16]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose due to multiple factors but fell on Wednesday. In the short term, they may remain strong due to supply and demand factors [17]. - **Market Data**: Include copper futures and spot prices, import and export data, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper futures' main contract is 80,140 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.46% [18][23][33]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias in the short term, while alumina prices are under pressure. Cast aluminum alloy is relatively resilient [37][38][39]. - **Market Data**: Provide data on aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot prices, inventory, and basis [40][54][63]. Zinc - **Price Trend**: In the short term, zinc prices show an overseas - strong and domestic - weak pattern and will mainly fluctuate [68]. - **Market Data**: Include zinc futures and spot prices, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai zinc futures' main contract is 22,155 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.16% [69][74][79]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel ore prices decline slightly, other nickel products are stable, and the MHP benchmark price rises. Stainless - steel demand improves in the peak season, and sulfuric - nickel prices are stable [83]. - **Market Data**: Present data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins [84][93]. Tin - **Price Driving Force**: Tin prices are driven up by tight supply in the short term [98]. - **Market Data**: Include tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai tin futures' main contract is 272,460 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.16% [99][104][106]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The market is in an oscillating adjustment stage. The future trend depends on downstream receiving demand [110]. - **Market Data**: Provide data on lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, inventory, and price differences [111][113][117]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be flat in September and have an upward expectation in the medium - to - long term. Polysilicon remains in a "wide - range oscillation" state [119]. - **Market Data**: Include industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, inventory, and production data [120][121][140].

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Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Precious Metals and Non - ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report - Authors: Xu Liang, Tang Yun [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Core View - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September (with a probability of nearly 90%), geopolitical tensions, and Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor have triggered a crisis of confidence in US dollar assets, boosting safe - haven demand. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and the de - dollarization trend provide long - term support for gold prices. The market is focused on tomorrow's US non - farm payroll data for guidance on the rate - cut path [3] Specific Data and Information - SHFE gold and silver futures prices and related charts are presented, including price trends, COMEX gold prices, and gold - silver ratios [4] - Gold long - term fund holdings and silver long - term fund holdings are also shown [11][12] - SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences are provided [6][13] Group 3: Copper Core View - Overseas copper mine disruptions have led to a decline in domestic spot processing fees. Tight resources are reflected in the decline of LME copper inventory and high domestic spot premiums. The Yangshan copper premium has climbed to $55/ton, indicating strong import demand. The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" in China has boosted refined copper consumption expectations. Although downstream restocking has promoted transactions, traders' high - price aversion has suppressed trading activity [16] Specific Data and Information - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 80,110 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 450 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.56% [17][22] - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, and refined - scrap price differences are also presented [27][31] - Copper warehouse receipts and inventory data, such as SHFE copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory, are given [32][34] Group 4: Aluminum Core View - **Aluminum**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, and domestic policies are also gradually taking effect, which is beneficial to aluminum prices. Although there are some production and transportation controls during the September parade, the demand in the peak season shows signs of recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but it needs to meet the peak - season expectations to break through the 21,000 resistance level [36] - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite may face greater volatility in the future. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, with high domestic operating capacity and expected oversupply in the second half of the year. Although some alumina plants in Henan have received environmental protection production - limit notices, the impact is mainly short - term [37] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cancellation of tax rebates for some recycled aluminum enterprises may lead to a decline in production capacity utilization, providing support for the price of aluminum alloy [38] Specific Data and Information - Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,710 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.05% [39] - Aluminum and alumina price differences and inventory data, such as warehouse receipts and LME inventory, are presented [43][55] Group 5: Zinc Core View - The supply of zinc is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore price has an advantage, and the increase in domestic processing fees in September may not be large. Overseas zinc ore supply is abundant, but overseas refined zinc production has limited growth. The demand is relatively stable and may improve during the "Golden September and Silver October." The LME inventory has continued to decline, and the zinc price shows a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [61] Specific Data and Information - Zinc futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE zinc main contract is 22,285 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.18% [62] - Zinc inventory data, such as SHFE zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory, are given [71] Group 6: Nickel Core View - The first - phase benchmark price of nickel in Indonesia in September shows that nickel ore prices are basically stable with a slight decline, and other nickel products are also stable. The MHP benchmark price has increased due to demand. Nickel iron prices are relatively firm, stainless steel prices are strong, and the demand for the peak season in September and October is warming up. Sulfate nickel prices are stable, and the impact of the riots in Indonesia on production has subsided [74] Specific Data and Information - Nickel futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE nickel main contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 740 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 1% [75] - Nickel spot prices, downstream profit data, and nickel ore price and inventory data are presented [79][81][83] Group 7: Tin Core View - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to the tight supply. Yunnan Tin's planned 45 - day maintenance starting from August 30 and the decline in refined tin production in August 2025 have contributed to this. In the short term, tin prices still have upward momentum due to the tight supply [88] Specific Data and Information - Tin futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE tin main contract is 273,120 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 860 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.31% [89][95] - Tin inventory data, such as SHFE tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory, are given [99] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The lithium carbonate market is in a shock - adjustment stage. The supply side has no new news, and the demand side has a marginal improvement expectation, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress short - term futures prices. The market trend depends on the actual downstream receiving situation [105] Specific Data and Information - Lithium carbonate futures prices, including daily and weekly changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 71,880 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 740 yuan and a weekly decrease of 7,500 yuan [106] - Lithium spot prices, including prices of lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium carbonate, are presented [110] - Lithium carbonate inventory data, such as Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and social inventory, are given [113] Group 9: Silicon Industry Chain Core View - **Industrial Silicon**: In the short term, it is in a narrow - range shock, and the shock range is expected to narrow further. In the medium - to - long term, the increase in power costs during the dry season will support prices [116] - **Polysilicon**: It is in a clear box - shock range. There is no strong driver to break the shock pattern for now, and it is necessary to track volume changes and breakthrough signals. The market is sensitive to news and may experience significant price fluctuations [116] Specific Data and Information - Industrial silicon spot prices, including prices at different ports and grades, are provided [117] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices, price differences, and related inventory and production data are presented [118][131][134]