Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Last week, the decline in raw sugar led to a simultaneous decline in domestic sugar. With limited bullish factors, the probability of further price increases is relatively low. Current domestic sugar demand is average, and yesterday's spot price continued to decline, providing no positive support for the futures market [3]. - **Cotton**: Although domestic downstream yarn mills have poor profits, the overall inventory pressure is not significant, and there is no obvious negative feedback. Xinjiang yarn mills are operating at a high load, supporting the rigid consumption of cotton. Cotton prices are likely to rise under the expectation of tight supply and demand, but in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton prices are restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to buy on dips rather than chase the rise, and focus on downstream import and new order trends [14]. - **Apple**: Recently, apple demand has slowed down and spot prices have weakened, but the futures market is relatively strong. The reduction of short positions in near - month contracts has driven the price up, and the long - position power in the main contract has increased. Future attention should be paid to whether the logic of shortage of delivery products will return to the market [20]. - **Red Dates**: The production of red dates in the 2025/2026 season has been determined, and the market focus is on the change in demand. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream buyers are mainly making rigid restocking. In the short - term, red date prices may remain volatile at a low level. In the long - term, the overall supply - demand of red dates in the new domestic season is loose, and prices will continue to be under pressure [25]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Price and Spread**: On January 28, 2026, SR01 closed at 5308 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.23% and a weekly increase of 0.80%. The spreads between different contracts also showed certain changes. For example, SR01 - 05 was 128, down 3 from the previous day and up 21 for the week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis between different regions (Nanning, Kunming) and different sugar contracts also changed. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 on January 27 was - 26, up 7 from the previous day and down 66 for the week [9]. - **Import Price**: The quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar changed. For example, the Brazilian import quota - in price was 4049 yuan/ton, up 8 from the previous day and down 35 for the week; the quota - out price was 5129 yuan/ton, up 11 from the previous day and down 46 for the week [12]. Cotton - **Futures Price**: On the reporting day, cotton 01 closed at 15365 yuan/ton, up 275 (1.82%); cotton 05 closed at 14940 yuan/ton, up 375 (2.57%); cotton 09 closed at 15010 yuan/ton, up 300 (2.04%) [15]. - **Spread**: The cotton basis was 1430, up 85; the spread between different cotton contracts and the spread between cotton and yarn also had corresponding changes [15]. Apple - **Futures and Spot Price**: On January 28, 2026, AP01 closed at 8302 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.4% and a weekly increase of 1.39%. The spot prices of different grades of apples in different regions also showed different trends. For example, the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 4 yuan/jin, with a daily increase of 0% and a weekly decrease of 2% [20]. - **Spread and Basis**: The spreads between different apple contracts (AP01 - 05, AP05 - 10, etc.) and the basis of the main contract also changed. For example, AP01 - 05 was - 1235, with a daily increase of 0.65% and a weekly increase of 0.65%; the main contract basis was - 106, with a daily increase of 4.95% and a weekly increase of 404.76% [20]. Red Dates - **Futures Spread**: The spreads between different red date contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) showed different trends in different time periods [26][28]. - **Price Trends**: The price trends of red dates in Xinjiang's main production areas and the wholesale prices of first - grade grey dates in main sales areas also showed certain changes over time [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a neutral fundamental situation with a range - bound trend. Supply - side blast furnace profits are stable, electric furnace profits are weakening, and short - term production may continue to increase. Demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is seasonally weakening, and inventory will continue to accumulate [3]. - The iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term, with seasonal inventory accumulation. However, due to the support from the steel market and the expected restocking by steel mills, the downside price space is limited [23]. - The coking coal market shows a pattern of "strong spot, weak futures", and the basis is at a high level. Short - term spot prices may face回调 pressure, and medium - to - long - term prices may face significant downward pressure under certain conditions [33]. - The ferroalloy market is in a range - bound pattern between the cost line and the previous pressure level. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are slightly better than those of silicomanganese [50]. - The soda ash market has an increasing excess supply expectation with new capacity coming on - stream. Although exports are high, the high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price [64]. - The glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is difficult to have a trend - based movement. The high inventory of the mid - stream needs to be digested, and the spot market is under pressure [87]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: - Rebar: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3200, 3123, and 3169 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3326, 3280, and 3301 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Spot prices: On January 28, 2026, the rebar summary price in China was 3313 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [9][12]. - **Spread Data**: - Rebar spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 spreads were 77, - 46, and - 31 respectively [4]. - Hot - rolled coil spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 spreads were 46, - 21, and - 25 respectively [4]. - Other spreads: The roll - rebar spread, basis, and other spreads also have corresponding values and changes [9][12][17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: - Futures prices: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 752.5, 783, and 764.5 yuan/ton respectively [24]. - Spot prices: On January 28, 2026, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 793 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: - On January 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 228.1 thousand tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 310.73 thousand tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 16766.53 thousand tons [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: - Coking coal spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads were - 178, - 80, and 258 respectively [36]. - Coke spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads were - 91.5, - 71, and 162.5 respectively [36]. - Other data: The basis, coking profit, and other indicators also have corresponding values and changes [36]. - **Spot Prices**: - On January 28, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1640 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton [39]. Ferroalloy - **Ferrosilicon Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the basis in Ningxia was - 32 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton [51]. - **Silicomanganese Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 188 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton [52]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1198, 1259, and 1295 yuan/ton respectively [65]. - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 61, - 36, and 97 respectively [65]. - **Spot Prices**: - On January 28, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton [65]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1067, 1173, and 1227 yuan/ton respectively [88]. - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 106, - 54, and 160 respectively [88]. - **Sales and Production Data**: - On January 27, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 122%, and in Hubei was 138% [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The supply - side has stable blast furnace profits and rising disk profits, so steel mills may continue to increase production with a low probability of significant reduction. The demand - side is affected by winter cold, with seasonal weakening of rebar demand and inventory accumulation, and hot - rolled coil demand may slow down and turn to inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are neutral, and prices will fluctuate within a range [3]. - Iron Ore: Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the downside is supported by the healthy fundamentals of steel, good profits of steel mills, and inventory replenishment expectations. Additionally, attention should be paid to the impact of rainy seasons in Australia and Brazil on shipments. It is expected that the price decline space is limited [23]. - Coal and Coke: Coking coal is in a pattern of "strong spot, weak disk" with a high basis. Without strong policy expectations to boost the disk, as winter storage enters the second half, the demand sustainability is limited, and the spot price of coking coal may face downward pressure in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, if there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic supply recovery" and "weakening macro - sentiment", the prices of coal and coke will face significant downward pressure [36]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side. The upper limit of silicon - manganese is restricted by high inventory, and the fundamentals of silicon - iron are slightly better than those of silicon - manganese. In the short term, ferroalloys will fluctuate within a range between the cost line and the previous pressure level [52]. - Soda Ash: The short - term commodity sentiment is warming up, which may drive some low - valued varieties. If the disk rises, there is some inventory replenishment space for middle and downstream players, but the demand is average with limited elasticity. In terms of fundamentals, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the oversupply expectation is intensifying. The export of soda ash remains high, which alleviates the domestic pressure to some extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [66]. - Glass: Although the daily melting of float glass has dropped to a certain low level, the demand reality and expectation are also weak. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - based movement. Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines for cold - repair and ignition, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. Currently, the high inventory of the middle reaches of glass needs to be digested, and the spot pressure still exists [90]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3199 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan from January 26), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3330 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The basis and month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4][10][12]. - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable on January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day. For example, 01 rebar/01 iron ore was 4, and 01 rebar/01 coke was 2 [20]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 757 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan from January 26). The basis also increased, and the prices of various iron ore varieties such as Rizhao PB powder also rose [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output increased slightly, the 45 - port desilting volume decreased, the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased, the 45 - port inventory and 247 - steel mill inventory increased, and the available days of 247 steel mills also increased [30]. Coal and Coke - **Price Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was - 178 (down 12.5 from January 26). The disk coking profit increased, and the ratios such as the main ore - coke ratio also changed [39]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions remained relatively stable on January 27, 2026, with some slight changes in the import profit of different types of coal [42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - Iron**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the basis of silicon - iron in Ningxia increased, the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke and动力煤 decreased slightly, and the number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased [53]. - **Silicon - Manganese**: On January 27, 2026, the basis of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia increased, the month - spreads changed slightly, the spot prices in various regions remained stable, and the prices of some manganese ores decreased slightly. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts increased slightly [54][56]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of soda ash contracts decreased. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding changes [67]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the overall inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, restricting the price [66]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of glass contracts decreased. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1066 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis changed [91]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the period from January 17 - 23, 2026 [92].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: January 26, 2026 [1] - Author: Chen Naixuan (Z0023138) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content. Core Views Aluminum - Supply side: No production increase or decrease occurred this week, and the operating capacity remained stable [3]. - Demand side: The theoretical output of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets decreased compared to last week, and the center of the spot aluminum price moved down. Industry profits narrowed, and social inventories may accumulate as downstream enterprises take holidays [3]. - Market situation: Overseas macro - situation and macro factors may continue to support the aluminum price, and the market is currently showing a high - level and strong oscillation [3]. Alumina - Supply side: There were more alumina overhauls this week, and suppliers' sentiment to hold up prices increased. However, the overall alumina supply was still in surplus, and fundamental negative factors remained [4]. - Demand side: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will maintain a pattern of slight growth and overall stability in the short term, and the demand for alumina will continue to be high. The spot trading atmosphere of alumina was okay this week, but the factory inventory continued to increase [4]. - Market situation: There are still short - term supply disturbances, and the short - term price bottom may gradually emerge [4]. Grouped by Content Categories 1. Market Data - **Aluminum Futures and Spot**: Include data such as the closing price and trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum futures main contracts, LME aluminum closing price and position, A00 aluminum spot average price and premium - discount average, etc. [5][6][11][12] - **Alumina Futures and Spot**: Include the closing price and trading volume of alumina futures main contracts, alumina spot price in different regions, alumina price differences, and basis [16][17][19] 2. Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: China's bauxite national monthly output, import volume, and port inventory have seasonal characteristics, and the monthly output varies by province [21][22] - **Alumina**: China's alumina monthly output, import volume, and national and provincial weekly operating rates are presented seasonally. There are also data on alumina import profit and loss [24][26][27][29] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: China and global electrolytic aluminum monthly output, China's electrolytic aluminum weekly output, net import volume, and import profit and loss are shown seasonally [31][32][33][40] 3. Downstream Demand - **Aluminum Products Output**: The output of aluminum rods, profiles, rods, plates, foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots has seasonal characteristics [41] - **Industry Operating Rates**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of various aluminum - related industries such as aluminum profiles, aluminum plates and strips, and aluminum foils are presented seasonally [42][44][50] - **Export Data**: The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and the export profit of aluminum products are shown seasonally [52][54] - **Related Industries**: Data on real estate (housing start - completion area, fixed - asset investment), automotive (automobile and new - energy vehicle production), and power (grid and power - source project investment, photovoltaic new - installed capacity) are provided [55][58][60][63][66] 4. Inventory - **Bauxite Inventory**: China's bauxite monthly inventory and inventory in Guangxi, Henan, and Shanxi have seasonal characteristics [67][69] - **Alumina Inventory**: Alumina enterprise factory inventory, inventory days, SHFE alumina warehouse receipt volume have seasonal patterns [70][71] - **Aluminum Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory, inventory days, aluminum rod and ingot + rod spot inventory have seasonal characteristics [71][72][73] 5. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: Include domestic and imported bauxite prices, 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda prices, pre - baked anode prices, power coal prices, Dutch natural gas prices, and European electricity prices [75][76] - **Cost and Profit of Products**: The cost and profit of alumina and electrolytic aluminum are presented [75][76]

Report Information - Report title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [2] - Report date: January 23, 2026 [2] - Author: Chen Naixuan [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views 利多因素 - Macro sentiment and external market linkages boost the market, with bullish sentiment prevailing [4]. - Nickel ore prices are rising, the market tends to support prices, and supply - demand expectations support price recovery [4]. 利空因素 - The demand side remains weak, especially the demand for new energy vehicles falls short of expectations, and the stainless - steel market enters the off - season [4]. - The market lacks a clear unilateral driver, and capital sentiment fluctuates greatly, with the risk of following the trend to build positions [4]. Trading Advisory Views - It is recommended to observe the implementation of Indonesia's quota policy and market fluctuations and avoid blind position - building [4]. Data Summary Nickel Futures and Spot Prices - The latest price of SHFE Nickel Main Contract is 142,500 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 180 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.13% [5]. - The latest price of LME Nickel 3M is 18,100 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 308 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 0.70% [5]. - The latest price of Jinchuan Nickel is 150,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 900 yuan and an increase rate of 0.60% [5]. Stainless - Steel Futures Prices - The latest price of Stainless - Steel Main Contract is 14,650 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 345 yuan and an increase rate of 2% [5]. Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory of nickel is 63,510 tons, an increase of 2,464 tons compared with the previous period [6]. - LME nickel inventory is 284,496 tons, a decrease of 168 tons compared with the previous period [6]. - Stainless - steel social inventory is 844.1 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons compared with the previous period [6]. - Nickel pig iron inventory is 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons compared with the previous period [6]. Chart Information Nickel - Related Charts - Nickel internal and external market trends [7] - Nickel spot average price [8] - China's refined nickel monthly output seasonality [11] - China's primary nickel monthly total supply including imports seasonality [11] - Philippines laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) [12] - China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality [12] - China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price (national average) [13] - Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price [13] - Domestic social inventory: nickel plate + nickel bean seasonality [14] - LME nickel inventory seasonality [14] - China's nickel iron monthly output seasonality [15] - Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly output seasonality [16] Downstream Sulfuric Acid Nickel - Related Charts - Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price [17][18] - Battery - grade nickel sulfate premium [19][20] - Nickel bean production of nickel sulfate profit rate seasonality [21] - China's externally purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel profit seasonality [21] - China's nickel sulfate monthly output (metal tons) [22] - Ternary precursor monthly production capacity seasonality [22] Stainless - Steel - Related Charts - Stainless - steel main contract [10] - China's 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil profit rate seasonality [24] - Stainless - steel monthly output seasonality [25][26] - Stainless - steel inventory seasonality [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean meal, the global soybean supply is abundant, and domestic oil mills' operating rates are rising. Although the soybean inventory remains high year - on - year, the soybean meal inventory is decreasing month - on - month. There is a short - term shock adjustment due to the game between the expectation of abundant supply and inventory reduction and demand support. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern may remain relatively loose after the South American soybeans are on the market [2]. - For rapeseed meal, due to the global rapeseed harvest and the expectation of improved China - Canada relations, the supply will be abundant after March. With weak demand recovery, the price is under pressure of shock and decline [3]. - For soybean oil, the weekly output of imported soybean crushing remains high, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the Spring Festival stocking supports the spot. Overseas bio - diesel topics support the domestic market [38]. - For palm oil, the inventory in Malaysia in December reached a five - year peak, and the domestic port inventory is high. While domestic demand is improving, there is a policy game regarding bio - diesel demand [38]. - For rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed crushing volume has decreased significantly year - on - year, but the import of Australian rapeseed will ease the raw material shortage. The long - term supply is expected to be abundant [38]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal Supply - The global soybean supply is abundant, domestic oil mills' operating rates are rising, and the soybean inventory remains high year - on - year. However, due to extended port clearance and reduced arrivals before the Spring Festival, oil mills will face a shortage of raw materials before the Spring Festival [2]. Demand - The high pig inventory supports the rigid demand for soybean meal, and the pre - holiday stocking by feed enterprises drives the increase in提货 volume [2]. Market Situation - There is a short - term shock adjustment due to the game between the expectation of abundant supply and inventory reduction and demand support. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to the growth of South American soybeans and the rhythm of domestic soybean arrivals [2]. Rapeseed Meal Supply - Coastal oil mills' rapeseed crushing has stopped, and the inventory is exhausted. The import profit of European rapeseed oil is in a larger inversion, and the Canadian rapeseed procurement policy has not been verified. The market is worried about the future supply pressure of Canadian rapeseed [7]. Demand - Affected by the off - season of aquaculture, feed enterprises' procurement is sluggish, forming a pattern of "tight spot and weak demand" [7]. Market Situation - Due to the global rapeseed harvest and the expectation of improved China - Canada relations, the supply will be abundant after March. With weak demand recovery, the price is under pressure of shock and decline [3]. Fats and Oils Soybean Oil - Supply: The weekly output of imported soybean crushing remains high, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the Spring Festival stocking supports the spot [38]. - Demand: Catering consumption is gradually recovering, and the procurement of small - packaged oil is increasing, but the terminal stocking intensity is lower than expected, and the spot remains strong [38]. - External Linkage: Overseas bio - diesel topics have led to the strengthening of overseas soybean oil, which supports the domestic market [38]. Palm Oil - Supply: Malaysia's December inventory reached a five - year peak, and the domestic port inventory is high, with large supply pressure [38]. - Demand: The recovery of domestic catering consumption drives edible demand, and the bio - diesel blending policy supports industrial demand [38]. - Policy Game: Indonesia cancelled the B50 plan this year, which is unfavorable for bio - diesel demand. However, the United States may increase the demand for bio - diesel, leading to an expected improvement in global soybean oil demand [38]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply: The domestic rapeseed crushing volume has decreased significantly year - on - year, and the rapeseed oil output has decreased greatly. But the import of Australian rapeseed will ease the raw material shortage, and the long - term supply is expected to be abundant [38]. - Demand: Pre - holiday stocking supports short - term demand, but high prices suppress procurement enthusiasm, the basis declines, and the spot weakens [38]. - Policy Impact: The expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations is rising. Attention should be paid to overseas bio - diesel policies, which are uncertain [38].

铜行业周报 2026/01/23 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责 ...

Report Core View - The structural interest rate cut has been implemented, increasing the demand for medium - and long - term bonds. The abundant capital, stable liquidity, and moderate inflation support bond prices. However, the slight decline in Treasury bond yields implies weakening demand, and the rising US Treasury yields increase the pressure of capital outflows. It is recommended to pay attention to the MA60 support level and maintain a wait - and - see position [2] Data Presented 1. Yield and Interest Rate - The report shows the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y Treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/12, the trends of deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted interest rates for 1 - day and 7 - day and 7 - day reverse repurchase rate from 2023/12 to 2025/12, and the trends of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/12 [3] 2. Futures Position and Transaction Volume - The trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures positions from 2015/12 to 2025/12 and the trends of their trading volumes from 2024/04 to 2025/12 are presented [5][6] 3. Futures Basis and Spread - The trends of the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts are shown. Also, the trends of the current - quarter minus next - quarter spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are presented. Additionally, the trends of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL cross - variety spreads are provided [7][14][16]

软商品日报 2026/01/21 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel products: The production recovery of finished steel products has slowed down. The apparent consumption of rebar has rebounded, leading to a shift from inventory accumulation to depletion, but the inventory change is flat month - on - month. In the subsequent consumption off - season, inventory may return to accumulation. The inventory is at a low level and shows a super - seasonal depletion. The inventory depletion speed of hot - rolled coils has accelerated marginally. Although the inventory base is large, it also shows a super - seasonal depletion, and the recent increase in warehouse receipts is obvious. The overall fundamentals are neutral, lacking driving forces, and the price fluctuates affected by the furnace charge end. It is supported by the cost end at the bottom and lacks upward driving forces at the top [3]. - Iron ore: The current dominant factor of iron ore prices is not its fundamentals but macro - expectations. Under the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation and slow resumption of production, the fundamentals cannot support the current high valuation, and there is no support for the price to continue to rise. However, after the price drops, the selling pressure is released, and steel mills have a rigid demand for replenishing inventory, so the price also has support at the bottom. Overall, it shows a wide - range oscillatory trend [21]. - Coal and coke: The accident at a factory in Inner Mongolia over the weekend may lead to a contraction in local steel supply, which can repair the profit of steel products on the futures market and support steel prices. The follow - up needs to focus on the event's handling results. If the event leads to stricter regulatory production restrictions in local areas, the progress of hot - metal production resumption may slow down, exacerbating the short - term oversupply contradiction of coking coal. In the long - term, it is necessary to focus on the change in macro - sentiment and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines after the Spring Festival. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected recovery of domestic supply" and "weakening of macro - sentiment", the long - term prices of coal and coke will face significant downward pressure [32]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are supported by the cost end at the bottom. In the short - term, after a correction, ferroalloys may show a bottom - oscillatory trend [47]. - Soda ash: Previously, the warming of the commodity market sentiment drove some low - valued varieties, and the futures price rose. The middle - stream of soda ash replenished inventory, but the elasticity was limited. From the perspective of fundamentals, as new production capacities gradually release output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. Currently, the expectation that the long - term supply of soda ash will remain at a high level remains unchanged. The inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and the number of furnace blockages is increasing. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. The high - level export of soda ash continues to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - Glass: There are rumors in the market that some production lines have ignition expectations, and the supply - demand expectation has deteriorated. Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, both the actual demand and the expected demand are weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - like movement. On the supply side, before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired or ignited, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. In addition, the policy's impact on supply cannot be ruled out. For example, there was news about the conversion of Hubei's petroleum - coke production lines to natural gas before. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent changes in supply expectations. In reality, regardless of the change in supply expectations, the high inventory in the middle - stream of glass needs to be digested, and the spot pressure still exists as the terminal enters the off - season [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: On January 21, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3192, 3117, and 3162 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3316, 3286, and 3305 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spread Data**: The 01 - 05 month - spread of rebar was 75 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 month - spread of hot - rolled coils was 30 yuan/ton on January 21, 2026 [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The summary price of rebar in China was 3318 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 78 yuan/ton on January 21, 2026; the summary price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 46 yuan/ton [9][11]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 21, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 752.5, 784, and 766.5 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 basis was 42 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average hot - metal output was 228.01 tons, the 45 - port desulfurization volume was 319.89 tons, the global shipping volume was 2929.9 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 16555.1 tons [26]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Spread and Profit Data**: On January 21, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was - 163.5 yuan/ton, the 09 - 01 spread of coke was - 113.5 yuan/ton, and the on - paper coking profit was - 25 yuan/ton [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: On January 21, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1620 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron Data**: On January 21, 2026, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 44 yuan/ton, the silicon - iron 01 - 05 spread was - 5542 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron spot price in Ningxia was 5320 yuan/ton [48]. - **Silicon Manganese Data**: On January 21, 2026, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 244 yuan/ton, the silicon - manganese 01 - 05 spread was 128 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton [49]. Soda Ash - **Futures Price and Spread Data**: On January 21, 2026, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1163, 1226, and 1270 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 spread was - 63 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 44 yuan/ton [62]. - **Spot Price and Spread Data**: On January 21, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, and the difference between heavy and light soda in North China was 0 yuan/ton [62]. Glass - **Futures Price and Spread Data**: On January 21, 2026, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1039, 1146, and 1200 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 spread was - 107 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan/ton [86]. - **Sales and Production Data**: On January 16, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 135, in Hubei was 90, in East China was 91, and in South China was 105 [87].