交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 黑色建材周报—纯碱 2025年09月26日 研究员：岳晋琛 交易咨询：Z0017963 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 http://www.eafutures .com 1 纯碱基本面要点 2 供给、需求、库存 3 价格、成本、利润 基本面要点： • 最新观点： 供应端来看，装置整体变动不大，综合供应维持高位。需求来看，下游需求平稳，节前适量补库，碱厂代发订单 小幅增加。本周碱厂发货良好，库存震荡下降，盘面短期依然存在现实和预期的博弈，陷入震荡格局。 东亚期货 3 • 利多因素： 1，下游开工基本稳定，按需补库； 2，成本由于原盐稳定和煤炭价格上移而具有支撑； • 利空因素： 1，综合供应维持相对高位； 2，全产业库存高企。 【免责声明】本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所 载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不 一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改 ...

Group 1: Core Views - Palm oil in the international market: After continuous rebounds, Malaysia's BMD crude palm oil futures may face resistance around 4,450 ringgit. With potential downward pressure, there's a risk of seeking support at 4,300 ringgit. After a second - round adjustment and stabilization, there's a chance of a rebound, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong view [3]. - Palm oil in the domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures rose and then fell, facing resistance at the 40 - day moving average of 9,350 yuan. There's a risk of a decline, potentially following Malaysia's palm oil and retesting the 8,800 - 9,000 yuan range. Watch for the possibility of breaking through 9,350 yuan and beware of post - National Day holiday decline risks [3]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybeans and soy oil are in narrow - range oscillations, and BMD palm oil is also slightly fluctuating. Affected by uncertain Sino - US trade relations, funds are likely to withdraw before the holiday. Spot备货 is mostly finished, and the market will enter the holiday mode. Domestic soybean oil futures will maintain a range - bound trend, with the January contract supported at 8,000 yuan [4]. - Bean meal: Argentina's completed export quota eases its impact on the domestic market. Weak reality and risk - aversion sentiment pressure the market. Before the holiday, Dalian bean meal will oscillate around 2,950 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range from 2,900 to 3,150 yuan/ton [16]. Group 2: Price Data Oil Price Data - Palm oil: Palm oil 01 is at 9,236 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; Palm oil 05 is at 9,052 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; Palm oil 09 is at 8,660 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; BMD palm oil主力 is at 4,406 ringgit/ton with a - 0.74% decrease; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 9,190 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [7]. - Soybean oil: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,162 yuan/ton with a - 1.01% decrease; Soybean oil 05 is at 7,926 yuan/ton with a - 0.4% decrease; Soybean oil 09 is at 7,858 yuan/ton with a - 0.42% decrease; CBOT soybean oil主力 is at 50.2 cents/pound with a 0.86% increase; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8,380 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase [13]. Oil Spread Data - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 192 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase; P 5 - 9 is 376 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase; P 9 - 1 is - 576 yuan/ton with an 8 - yuan decrease [5]. - Soybean oil spreads: Y 1 - 5 is 262 yuan/ton with a 14 - yuan increase; Y 5 - 9 is 68 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase; Y 9 - 1 is - 326 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan decrease [5]. - Other spreads: Y - P 01 is - 1,030 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan decrease; Y - P 05 is - 1,100 yuan/ton with an 8 - yuan decrease; Y - P 09 is - 802 yuan/ton with a 14 - yuan decrease; Y/M 01 is 2.761 with a - 0.13% decrease; Y/M 05 is 2.8711 with a 0.52% increase; Y/M 09 is 2.7408 with a 0.61% increase; OI 1 - 5 is 484 yuan/ton with no change; OI 5 - 9 is 92 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase; OI 9 - 1 is - 576 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan decrease; OI/RM 01 is 4.1498 with a 0.18% increase; OI/RM 05 is 4.1221 with a 1.3% increase; OI/RM 09 is 3.9513 with a 1.32% increase [5]. Meal Price and Spread Data - Meal prices: Bean meal 01 is at 2,937 with a - 30 decrease and - 1.01% decrease; Bean meal 05 is at 2,751 with an - 11 decrease and - 0.4% decrease; Bean meal 09 is at 2,858 with a - 12 decrease and - 0.42% decrease; Rapeseed meal 01 is at 2,405 with a - 39 decrease and - 1.6% decrease; Rapeseed meal 05 is at 2,327 with a - 16 decrease and - 0.68% decrease; Rapeseed meal 09 is at 2,407 with a - 14 decrease and - 0.58% decrease; CBOT yellow soybeans are at 1,012 with no change; The offshore RMB is at 7.1443 with a 0.0063 increase and 0.09% increase [17]. - Meal spreads: M01 - 05 is 205 with a 24 - yuan increase; M05 - 09 is - 108 with a - 1 decrease; M09 - 01 is - 97 with a - 23 decrease; RM01 - 05 is 101 with a 25 - yuan increase; RM05 - 09 is - 78 with a 1 - yuan increase; RM09 - 01 is - 23 with a - 26 decrease [18][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Affected by the divergence in Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in gold ETF holdings, the medium - to long - term outlook for gold is supported by the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and declining real interest rates [3]. - **Copper**: The impact of the Freeport copper mine incident exceeded expectations, causing short - term over - appreciation of copper prices [19]. - **Aluminum**: After the September interest rate cut, the macro - driving force subsided. The trading of Shanghai aluminum may focus on fundamentals, and short - term prices may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is in a surplus state, and the demand side shows no signs of a peak season. In the short term, zinc prices will likely move in a range, and the current trading strategy is mainly based on the long - domestic and short - overseas logic [67]. - **Nickel**: Concerns about the stability of nickel ore supply have increased, and prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to rise. Nickel iron prices are restricted by stainless steel demand, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [82]. - **Tin**: With the Fed's interest rate decision settled, the macro impact on tin prices has diminished. In the short term, due to tight supply and weak demand, tin prices are likely to move in a range [97]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As the National Day approaches, the market's expectation of a shutdown on September 30 has decreased significantly. Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [108]. - **Silicon**: Before the National Day, the willingness to stock up has declined. The industrial silicon market will continue the pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality." Polysilicon prices fluctuate sharply, and investors are advised to be cautious [117]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influence Factors**: Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in gold ETF holdings affect gold prices. The upward revision of the US Q2 GDP restrains short - term interest rate cut expectations, while geopolitical risks and increased domestic gold ETF holdings provide support [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates [4][9]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The impact of the Freeport copper mine incident was longer than expected, leading to short - term over - appreciation of copper prices [19]. - **Price Data**: Spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper decreased by 0.02%, while Guangdong Southern Storage increased by 0.22%. In the futures market, the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.29% [22][23]. - **Inventory and Import Data**: Copper inventories in various regions changed, and copper imports showed a significant increase in losses [34][28]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the September interest rate cut, the focus shifted to fundamentals, and short - term prices may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [37]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction in bauxite lies in the tight domestic supply and low shipments from Guinea, while the inventory is at a high level. Alumina supply is in surplus, and short - term prices are likely to be weak [38]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: After the macro - driving force subsided, the market focused on fundamentals. With mixed long and short factors, short - term prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [39]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Provided prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, as well as various spreads and basis data [40][44][52]. - **Inventory Data**: Aluminum and alumina inventories in different regions changed, and the impact on prices needs to be monitored [61]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: The supply side is in a surplus state, and the demand side shows no signs of a peak season. LME inventories are decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Short - term prices are likely to move in a range [67]. - **Price Data**: Zinc futures and spot prices showed different changes, and various spreads and basis data were provided [68][73]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc inventories changed, and the impact on prices needs to be observed [78]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Concerns about the stability of nickel ore supply have increased, and prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to rise. Nickel iron prices are restricted by stainless steel demand, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [82]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided prices of nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel, as well as inventory data [83]. Tin - **Market Situation**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the macro impact on tin prices has diminished. In the short term, due to tight supply and weak demand, tin prices are likely to move in a range [97]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory data [98][104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: As the National Day approaches, the market's expectation of a shutdown on September 30 has decreased significantly. Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [108]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, as well as inventory data [109][111][115]. Silicon - **Market Situation**: Before the National Day, the willingness to stock up has declined. The industrial silicon market will continue the pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality." Polysilicon prices fluctuate sharply, and investors are advised to be cautious [117]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and other products, as well as inventory data [118][119][146].

软商品日报 2025/09/26 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 黑色建材周报—玻璃 1 基本面要点 2 浮法玻璃 3 光伏玻璃 4 宏观数据 2025年09月26日 研究员：岳晋琛 交易咨询：Z0017963 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 http://www.eafutures .com 【免责声明】本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所 载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不 一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交 易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承 担任何法律责任。本 他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不 得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用 ...

上海东亚期货周报— 集运（欧线） 2025年09月26日 研究员：岳晋琛 交易咨询：Z0017963 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 http://www.eafutures .com 【免责声明】本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所 载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不 一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交 易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承 担任何法律责任。本 他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不 得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权力。所有本报告中使用的商标、服务标记及标记 均为本公 ...

Core View - Bullish factors: Increased disturbances at the mine end, strong price - holding mentality of Philippine mines, rising supply costs; Slight improvement in demand, with the enhanced demand in September driving supply - demand correction [3] - Bearish factors: Decline in macro - expectations, overall weakness in the metal sector after the Fed's interest rate cut; Continuous accumulation of LME nickel inventory, increasing surplus pressure on refined nickel [3] - Trading advice: Focus on short - term range trading and avoid heavy - position operations [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - **Price changes**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 122,990 yuan/ton, up 1,590 yuan or 1.31% week - on - week; the closing price of LME nickel 3M was 15,435 dollars/ton, up 100 dollars or 0.97% week - on - week. The prices of other nickel contracts also showed varying degrees of increase [4] - **Position and volume**: The position volume was 99,642 lots, up 54,574 lots or 121.1% week - on - week; the trading volume was 177,030 lots, up 110,931 lots or 167.83% week - on - week [4] - **Warehouse receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 25,105 tons, down 738 tons or 2.86% week - on - week [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract was - 505 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 4.72% week - on - week [4] Stainless Steel Futures - **Price changes**: The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,930 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 20 yuan or 0%. The prices of other stainless steel contracts showed slight increases [4] - **Position and volume**: The position volume was 109,896 lots, down 20,121 lots or 15.48% week - on - week; the trading volume was 129,897 lots, down 8,718 lots or 6.29% week - on - week [4] - **Warehouse receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 87,803 tons, down 1,929 tons or 2.15% week - on - week [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract was 640 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 9.86% week - on - week [4] Spot Nickel - **Price changes**: The price of Jinchuan nickel was 125,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan or 1.25%; the price of imported nickel was 123,225 yuan/ton, up 1,625 yuan or 1.34%; the price of 1 electrolytic nickel was 124,050 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan or 1.31%; the price of nickel beans was 125,350 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan or 1.29%; the price of electrodeposited nickel was 122,950 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan or 1.32% [4] Inventory - **Domestic social inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel was 41,484 tons, up 429 tons compared with the previous period [4] - **LME nickel inventory**: The LME nickel inventory was 230,586 tons, unchanged from the previous period [6] - **Stainless steel social inventory**: The stainless steel social inventory was 909 tons, up 11.8 tons [6] - **Nickel pig iron inventory**: The nickel pig iron inventory was 28,652 tons, down 614.5 tons [6] Data Graphs - **Nickel futures**: Include the closing price trends of Shanghai nickel futures main contract and LME nickel (3 - month) [7][8] - **Stainless steel futures**: Show the closing price trend of stainless steel futures main contract [9][10] - **Spot nickel**: Present the average price of nickel spot [11][12] - **Primary nickel supply and inventory**: Cover China's refined nickel monthly production seasonality, total primary nickel monthly supply including imports seasonality, domestic social inventory of nickel plates and nickel beans seasonality, LME nickel inventory seasonality, etc. [13][14][15] - **Nickel ore and nickel pig iron**: Include the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality, China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price national average, Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price, etc. [16][17] - **Nickel iron production**: Show China's and Indonesia's nickel iron monthly production seasonality [18][20] - **Downstream nickel sulfate**: Include the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, the seasonality of the profit rate of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the seasonality of the profit of producing electrodeposited nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China, etc. [22][24] - **Stainless steel**: Include the seasonality of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit rate, stainless steel monthly production seasonality, and stainless steel inventory seasonality [28][29][31]

贵金属期货 周报—2025-9-26 1、黄金AU 观点： 在贸易战重启背景下经济衰退问题制约金银饰品 消费需求；贵金属的需求在于去美元背景下的主权基金选择；在美国重启降息 之际，美元中期贬值因素和近端收益率曲线下沉对贵金属形成支撑；跟踪到国内黄金仓单有相对显著的上升。 基本面： 1、美国对进口医疗器械、工业机械等发起232条款调查。2、特朗普取消与民主党有关临时拨款法案的会晤计划，称会晤不可能有成果。 3、美国第二季度GDP被大幅上修至增长3.8%，前值为3.3%；9月20日当周初请失业金人数录得21.8万人，为2025年7月19日当周以来新低， 前值由23.1万人修正为23.2万人。4、欧洲央行行长拉加德：欧洲央行已经达到了通胀目标，但不确定性依然存在；管委Scicluna：当前利 率水平适宜，央行有能力应对下行风险；管委斯图纳拉斯：无需进一步宽松。 2、白银AG 观点：在贸易战重启背景下经济衰退问题制约金银饰品 消费需求；贵金属的需求在于去美元背景下的主权基金选择；在美国重启降息 之际，美元中期贬值因素和近端收益率曲线下沉对贵金属形成支撑；跟踪到国内黄金仓单有相对显著的上升。 基本面： 1、美国对进口医 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Core Views Bullish Factors - A slight decrease in domestic refined zinc supply combined with pre-holiday stockpiling demand has boosted downstream purchasing enthusiasm [3] - Continuous depletion of overseas LME inventories to low levels, with the strong overseas and weak domestic pattern providing support [3] Bearish Factors - The expectation of supply surplus has been strengthened, and the increase in the operating rate of domestic smelters has accelerated the accumulation of social inventories [3] - The fundamentals continue to be weak, with an obvious increasing trend in supply and the export window not effectively opened [3] Trading Advisory View - In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate within a range, lacking a unilateral driving force [3] Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - The report includes data on the market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and weekly output of galvanized steel coils, as well as the net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips), die-cast zinc alloys, color-coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide [4][6][8] - It also presents data on real estate development investment, project progress, sales area, and unsold area, as well as the transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities and the floor area of land transactions in 100 large and medium-sized cities [11][13][15] - Additionally, it shows data on infrastructure fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) [17] Supply and Supply-side Profits - The report provides data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, SMM zinc ingot monthly output, China's zinc ingot monthly output + import volume, zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory [20][22][23] Futures and Spot Market Review - The report shows data on the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, LME zinc (spot/three months) basis, LME zinc (spot/three months) basis seasonality, Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [29][30][31]

油料周报 油料产业周报 2025/9/26 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权力。所有本报告中使用的商标、服务标记及标记均为本公司的商标、服务标记及标记。 基本面及观点 豆 ...