Group 1: Report Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures declined under fundamental bearish pressure. SPPOMA data showed a production increase of over 10% from the 1st to the 20th. With concerns about weak exports, palm oil prices dropped significantly, breaking below the 4,100 ringgit support. There is short - term downward pressure towards 4,000 ringgit, with a chance of a brief rebound. If the production growth issue persists, prices may fall to the 3,950 - 3,960 range [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures were weak. Affected by the decline in Malaysian palm oil, prices broke below 8,600 yuan and hit a new low. They are expected to test the 8,500 - yuan support. There is a risk of falling to 8,200 yuan if Malaysian palm oil briefly breaks below 4,000 ringgit, which is also supported by the 250 - week moving average [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil futures declined due to international market trends, including a possible delay in the US reducing biofuel import subsidies, weak Malaysian export data, and optimistic prospects for Russia - Ukraine peace talks. Domestic demand is poor, and supply is sufficient, pressuring the futures market. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil fell to 8,170 yuan, close to the 8,150 - yuan semi - annual moving average. There is a chance of testing this support level [4]. Bean Meal - Dalian bean meal futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. Hedging pressure and weak US soybean prices limited upward movement, while cost support restricted downward space. The short - term range is expected to be between 2,980 - 3,030 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range from 2,950 - 3,200 yuan/ton [14]. Group 2: Price Data Oil Price Data - Palm oil: Palm oil 01 was at 8,550 yuan/ton (-1.11%), palm oil 05 at 8,668 yuan/ton (-1.19%), palm oil 09 at 8,532 yuan/ton (-1.14%), BMD palm oil at 4,149 ringgit/ton (-0.14%), Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil at 8,600 yuan/ton (-70), and its basis at 24 yuan/ton (+96) [6]. - Soybean oil: Soybean oil 01 was at 8,190 yuan/ton (-0.17%), soybean oil 05 at 7,982 yuan/ton (-0.28%), soybean oil 09 at 7,926 yuan/ton (-0.38%), CBOT soybean oil at 51.07 cents/pound (-0.74%), Shandong first - grade soybean oil at 8,330 yuan/ton (-100), and its basis at 206 yuan/ton (-268) [10]. Oilseed Price Data - Bean meal: Bean meal 01 was at 3,012 (-0.17%), bean meal 05 at 2,803 (-0.28%), bean meal 09 at 2,915 (-0.38%), and CBOT soybeans at 1,123 (0%) [15]. - Rapeseed meal: Rapeseed meal 01 was at 2,431 (+0.79%), rapeseed meal 05 at 2,367 (-0.42%), and rapeseed meal 09 at 2,435 (-0.37%) [15]. Spread Data - Oil spreads: P 1 - 5 was -126 yuan/ton (-36), P 5 - 9 was 142 yuan/ton (-8), P 9 - 1 was -16 yuan/ton (+44), Y - P 01 was -422 yuan/ton (+74), etc. [5]. - Oilseed spreads: M01 - 05 was 209 (+3), RM01 - 05 was 64 (+29), M05 - 09 was -112 (+3), etc. [16][19]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Feed and Aquaculture Daily Report - Research Areas: Pig, Corn and Starch, Egg Pig Market Core View - Policy disturbances may affect the long - term supply of pigs. Strategically, a long - term bullish view can be taken, but in the short - to medium - term, fundamentals prevail. Recently, the second - fattening replenishment has weakened, and the near - term slaughter pressure persists, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a stronger trend [3] Price Information - **Spot Prices**: The national average spot price of pigs is 11.54 yuan, up 0.07 yuan (0.61%). Prices in different regions such as Henan, Hunan, etc., also show varying degrees of increase [4] - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different pig futures contracts show mixed trends. For example, the price of the Pig 01 contract is 11,560 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.22%), while the Pig 03 contract is 11,350 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%) [5] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of different pig futures contracts and between regions and contracts show significant fluctuations. For example, the LH01 - 03 spread is 180 yuan, down 45 yuan (- 20%) [10] Corn and Starch Market Core View - The spot market of corn was generally stable, with individual enterprises raising prices. After the recent continuous rebound of corn prices, the supply - side's reluctance to sell has eased, and the arrival volume in Shandong has increased. The downstream's willingness to purchase at high prices has decreased, and the price has entered a short - term balance. The futures market showed a slight correction. The starch market was stable, and the futures market followed the decline of corn and fell more than corn [14] Price Information - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different corn and corn starch futures contracts all showed increases. For example, the price of the Corn 01 contract is 2,175 yuan, up 7 yuan (0.32%), and the Corn Starch 01 contract is 2,480 yuan, up 13 yuan (0.53%) [15] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in different ports and the basis of corn and corn starch in different regions also showed certain changes. For example, the price of corn in Shekou Port is 2,370 yuan, up 10 yuan, and the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract is 62 yuan, up 14 yuan [19] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of corn and corn starch showed different trends. For example, the Corn 1 - 5 month - to - month spread is - 73 yuan, down 12 yuan [22] - **US Corn**: The prices of CBOT corn, soybeans, and wheat showed slight fluctuations. The US Gulf and West Coast's duty - paid prices decreased, and there were corresponding import profits [27] Egg Market Core View - In the long - term, the egg - laying hen production capacity is still in excess, and there is significant price pressure. In the short - term, due to the rapid decline of egg prices after the festival, some farmers have culled or molted hens. Overall, the production capacity is at a high level but is approaching an inflection point, and the general trend is still weak [30] Price Information - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different egg futures contracts showed mixed trends. The Egg 01 contract is 3,180 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.16%), and the Egg 09 contract is 3,872 yuan, up 13 yuan (0.34%) [31] - **Spot Prices**: The prices of eggs in the main production and sales areas, as well as different types of eggs, all showed declines. For example, the price of eggs in the main production areas is 2.86 yuan, down 0.02 yuan (- 0.69%) [32] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of different egg futures contracts and between the main production areas and the main contract showed significant fluctuations. For example, the Egg 1 - 5 spread is - 288 yuan, down 18 yuan (6.67%) [42]

油脂油料产业日报 2025/11/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overall, finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the lower end, but their upward drive is suppressed by inventory and demand. They are expected to trade in a range, with rebar likely between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption, and the risk lies in the possible negative feedback caused by the decline in steel enterprise profitability [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with total inventory continuously increasing, but a structural shortage of deliverable products. The price lacks a strong trend driver. The port inventory is accumulating above the seasonal level, but the inventory of deliverable brand coarse powder is decreasing, supporting the basis to strengthen. The coking coal price decline provides a seesaw support for the ore price, but the subsequent recovery of coking coal valuation may squeeze the iron ore [21]. - In the short term, the coal - coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure due to factors such as the high spot price increase, weak downstream acceptance, and seasonal weakening of demand. In the long - term, the supply elasticity of coking coal will be restricted by policies, and the winter storage demand is expected to limit the downward space of coking coal prices [31]. - Ferroalloys face a fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center may shift down due to the impact of energy supply - guarantee policies on coking coal prices, the downward space is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [44]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without production cuts, its valuation has limited upward elasticity. The medium - and long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the upper - and middle - stream inventory is high, restricting the price, but there is cost support at the lower end [53]. - The glass market has weak production and sales recently, and the high inventory in the middle stream brings significant spot pressure. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [77]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3070, 3116, and 3162 respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3277, 3281, and 3298 respectively. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices and basis also had corresponding values [4][8][10]. - **Ratio Data**: The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore were all 4, and those to coke were all 2 on November 19, 2025 [18]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 791.5, 755, and 730 respectively. The basis of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 3, 31.5, and 55 respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao also had corresponding values [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of November 14, 2025, the daily average hot - metal output was 236.88, the 45 - port desulfurization volume was 326.95, and the global shipping volume was 3516.4. The 45 - port inventory was 15129.71 [25]. Coal - Coke - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the coking coal and coke warehouse - receipt costs and basis had corresponding values. The coking profit on the disk was - 72 [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the prices of different types of coking coal and coke in different regions had corresponding values, and the import and export profits also had corresponding values [35][36]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron Data**: On November 19, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron in different regions had corresponding values, and the number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 8396 [45]. - **Silicon Manganese Data**: On November 19, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions had corresponding values, and the number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts was 19744 [46]. Soda Ash - **Price/Month - Spread Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts of soda ash were 1182, 1257, and 1325 respectively. The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding values [53]. - **Spot Price/Spread Data**: On November 19, 2025, the heavy - alkali and light - alkali market prices in different regions had corresponding values, and the heavy - alkali minus light - alkali spreads also had corresponding values [56]. Glass - **Price/Month - Spread Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts of glass were 1009, 1139, and 1225 respectively. The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding values [78]. - **Production and Sales Data**: From November 11 - 17, 2025, the production and sales of glass in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China had corresponding values [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the precious metals market, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, short - term macro uncertainties about December interest rate cuts may lead to continued volatile adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average [3]. - In the copper market, concerns about non - farm data affecting interest rate cuts have led to capital reduction and price drops. Inventory increases and narrowing premiums reflect fundamental pressures, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - In the aluminum market, Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a long - term oscillatory upward trend, but short - term weak fundamentals and a lower probability of December interest rate cuts may lead to profit - taking by previous funds, resulting in subsequent oscillatory consolidation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the expiration of a large number of warehouse receipts will exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand [36]. - In the zinc market, the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and a significant drop in November TC due to intense competition for ore in the smelting sector have increased the willingness of smelters to reduce or halt production in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - In the nickel and stainless - steel market, nickel - iron prices have been declining due to weak downstream demand. The downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure, and downstream demand remains weak [75]. - In the tin market, due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, with support around 276,000 yuan [88]. - In the lithium carbonate market, strong demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors, combined with a slowdown in supply growth, may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - In the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range, weak oscillations [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, due to unclear prospects of December interest rate cuts, precious metals may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the long term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold long - term fund holdings, and SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [4][12][16]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Market concerns about non - farm data and inventory increases have led to price drops, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - **Price Data**: Spot prices from various sources (Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaoyi, etc.) have small daily increases. Futures prices of Shanghai copper and London copper show different trends, with Shanghai copper rising and London copper falling [22][23]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventories show different changes, with some warehouse receipts decreasing and LME copper inventories increasing [32][34]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [36]. - **Price Data**: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [38][45]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventories show different changes, and alumina warehouse receipts increase slightly [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Cooling interest rate cut expectations and a drop in November TC have increased the willingness of smelters to cut production. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices show different trends, with Shanghai zinc rising and LME zinc falling slightly [60]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts decrease, and LME zinc inventories increase [72]. Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Price Outlook**: Nickel - iron prices decline due to weak downstream demand, and the downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure [75]. - **Price Data**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [76]. - **Inventory Data**: Nickel warehouse receipts decrease [76]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [88]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai tin and London tin futures prices show different trends, with Shanghai tin rising and London tin falling slightly [89]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decrease, and LME tin inventories remain unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: Strong demand and slow supply growth may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - **Price Data**: Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices show an upward trend [105][109]. - **Inventory Data**: Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increase slightly, and social and downstream inventories decrease [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook [116]. - **Price Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related product prices show different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [116]. - **Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon social inventory and polysilicon total inventory show different trends [134][143].

Group 1: Sugar Core View The global sugar supply in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to have a surplus of 163,000 tons, mainly due to the increase in sugar cane crushing volume and sugar production in Brazil and significant production growth in Indian sugar mills. In China, the import of sugar in October was 750,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 213,200 tons. Coupled with the increase in new sugar supply from sugar mills starting operations, the spot price quotes have generally been lowered. Although the control of syrup imports and high costs support the price, the supply pressure dominates the short-term weakness [3]. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, SR01 closed at 5381 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.48% and a weekly decline of 1.77%. Other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline [4]. - **Price Spreads**: SR01 - 05 was 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and 19 yuan from the previous week [4]. Basis and Import Prices - **Basis**: On November 18, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 353 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan from the previous day and 73 yuan from the previous week. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was 193 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan from the previous day and 38 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Import Prices**: On November 19, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4060 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day and up 92 yuan from the previous week. The out - of - quota price was 5143 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan from the previous day and up 120 yuan from the previous week [11]. Group 2: Cotton Core View Currently, the supply pressure of domestic cotton is gradually increasing, and there is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The demand side performance is currently average, and the upward momentum of cotton prices is lacking in the short term. The cotton price may fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downstream still has resilience, waiting for macroeconomic improvement [13]. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, Cotton 01 closed at 13,485 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan with a daily increase of 0.67%. Cotton 05 closed at 13,490 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan with a daily increase of 0.63% [14]. - **Price Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1394 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Cotton 01 - 05 was - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Group 3: Apples Core View The ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is gradually ending, and the trading is concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi production areas. The warehousing work is in the later stage. In ground trading, the apples in Qixia and Zhaoyuan in Shandong have not all been harvested, there are many merchants, and the striped apples are on the market. Fruit farmers mostly sell at the market price. In terms of warehousing progress, cold storages in Gansu have started to ship, the warehousing in Shaanxi is coming to an end, and the fruit farmers' apples in the western townships of Qixia in Shandong are still being warehoused. Shandong apples will gradually be shipped out next week, and small apples have sold well recently [17]. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, AP01 closed at 9375 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.61% and a weekly increase of 1.82%. AP03 closed at 9208 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.6% and a weekly increase of 1.3% [18]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread of AP01 - 05 was 77 yuan/ton, down 35.83% from the previous day and 228.33% from the previous week. The main contract basis was - 538 yuan/ton, down 3.76% from the previous day and up 49.86% from the previous week [19]. Group 4: Red Dates Core View The new - season red dates are about to enter the concentrated harvesting stage. Currently, the new - season yield is still the core point of market game. At present, there is indeed a yield reduction in the southern Xinjiang production area, but the reduction range is difficult to determine. Affected by factors such as moisture and single - date weight, farmers' estimates of the yield are also prone to deviations. In the short term, the red date price fluctuates greatly under the capital game, but under the yield reduction, as the purchase season begins, the downward space is expected to be limited for the time being. Pay attention to the subsequent commercial rate and purchase situation of new dates [25]. Price and Spread - **Price Spreads**: The red date futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) show different trends over time, and the data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in the report [26][28].

软商品日报 2025/11/18 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to trade in a range, with rebar between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption, and the risk lies in the possible negative feedback from the decline in the profitability of steel enterprises [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, but a structural shortage of deliverable products. The price lacks a strong trend driver. In the short - term, the shipment of iron ore is increasing again, and the output of non - mainstream mines remains high. The iron ore price may be affected by the change in coking coal valuation [20]. - In the short - term, the coal - coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure due to factors such as high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. In the long - term, the coal - coke price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - Ferroalloys are facing high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may shift down due to the impact of energy supply guarantee on coking coal prices, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the upper - middle stream inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - The glass market has weak sales recently, and the high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price and Spread Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and hot - rolled coil 01, 05 contracts changed compared to the previous day. The rebar 01 - 05 and hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions on November 18, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day. The basis of different contracts also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts on November 18, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, 09 contracts increased compared to the previous day, and the basis of different contracts decreased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of November 14, 2025, the daily average iron - water output increased week - on - week, the global and Australian - Brazilian shipments increased, and the 45 - port inventory increased [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Analysis**: The short - term price adjustment is due to high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. The long - term price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the coal - coke futures and spot prices, basis, month - spreads, and other data showed different changes compared to the previous day [32][33][34]. Ferroalloys - **Market Outlook**: Facing high inventory and weak demand, the cost center may shift down, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - **Data of Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: On November 18, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon showed different changes compared to the previous day [43][45]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Priced by cost, without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the soda ash futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day [52]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: Weak sales recently, high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. - **Price and Sales Data**: On November 18, 2025, the glass futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day. The sales in different regions showed different trends in the recent period [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For precious metals, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center in the long - term, the unclear prospect of interest rate cuts in December and short - term technical weakness suggest a possible short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the retracement of the 200 - day moving average [3]. - For copper, as the delivery date approaches, the registered warrant volume has rapidly increased. The spot price of electrolytic copper has declined, the premium has strengthened, and the purchasing sentiment has increased but not significantly. The futures price has shown narrow - range fluctuations and lacks driving forces [15]. - For aluminum, the expected tightening of overseas electrolytic aluminum supply has given rise to a bullish sentiment among funds, leading to an influx of capital into Shanghai aluminum futures and an increase in prices. However, downstream demand may not support such high prices, so Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Alumina has seen price - increasing orders due to environmental production restrictions and short - covering, but it still follows an oversupply logic. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up characteristics with Shanghai aluminum and has strong downside support [33][34]. - For zinc, the expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled down, and the smelting sector's willingness to reduce or halt production in November has increased due to intense competition for ores and a significant decline in TC. The impact needs to be observed through inventory changes in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction if demand remains stable. Currently, there are significant differences between bulls and bears, and the bottom space can be observed at the end of the month [57]. - For nickel, the expectation of interest rate cuts in December is uncertain, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs has affected risk preferences. Nickel ore prices may remain strong in the short term due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the impact of typhoons on production and shipping. The prices of nickel - iron and stainless steel have declined due to weak downstream demand, and both are experiencing inventory accumulation [73]. - For tin, although there has been some resumption of production in Yunnan, the supply is still weaker than demand due to the under - expected resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp reduction in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with support predicted around 276,000 yuan [88]. - For lithium carbonate, the price has far exceeded expectations, and downstream buyers have no intention to replenish inventory. There is an expectation of a decline in production in December. Technically, the price has broken through the 90,000 - yuan mark and reached 95,000 yuan, posing a high risk for chasing the price. There is an over - rising sentiment, and the risk of chasing the price should be vigilant [104]. - For the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, and it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range weak fluctuations [115]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Short - term adjustment possible, long - term upward trend supported by central bank purchases and investment demand [3]. - **Market Data**: Included price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, their ratios, and relationships with the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term fund holdings [4][8][11]. Copper - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of copper have declined, with different degrees of decline in various regions. The premium has also decreased [18]. - **Futures Market**: Futures prices have declined, and the trading volume and open interest have shown certain trends. The registered warrant volume has increased significantly [16][19][29]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import losses have increased, and the TC of copper concentrates has remained unchanged [24]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Spread**: The scrap - to - refined spread has decreased, indicating a reduced price advantage of scrap copper [28]. Aluminum - **Futures Prices**: The prices of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures have declined to varying degrees [35]. - **Price Spreads**: There are differences in price spreads between different contracts of aluminum and alumina, as well as between aluminum and alumina [38][40]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of aluminum in different regions have declined, and the basis has also changed [44]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum has changed, and the alumina warehouse receipt inventory has remained stable [51]. Zinc - **Futures Prices**: The prices of Shanghai zinc futures have generally declined, except for the second - consecutive contract which has increased slightly [58]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of zinc have declined, and the premium has changed significantly [66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc has increased [70]. Nickel - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel have declined, and the trading volume has increased while the open interest has decreased. The warehouse receipt volume has increased [74]. - **Downstream Market**: The prices of nickel - iron and stainless steel have declined, and the downstream demand is weak. Both are experiencing inventory accumulation [73]. Tin - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai tin and LME tin have changed slightly, with Shanghai tin showing a slight decline [89]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of tin and tin concentrates have declined slightly, and the prices of solder products have remained stable [93]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai tin has increased, while the LME tin inventory has decreased [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Prices**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures have generally increased compared to the previous week, but there has been a slight decline on the day [105]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various lithium - related products have increased, and the price differences between different grades have also changed [109]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the social inventory of lithium carbonate have decreased [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions have changed slightly, and the basis has increased. The futures prices have declined [115]. - **Polysilicon and Downstream Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components have shown certain trends, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased [123][133].

Report Information - Report Name: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Date: November 18, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rose, supported by rising Chicago soybean oil and Dalian edible oil markets, as well as a weakening ringgit. However, the market has not escaped the range-bound adjustment above 4,100 ringgit. The increase in palm oil production (4.09%) and decrease in exports (15%-50%) in the first half of the month have dragged down the market. If CBOT soybean oil continues to rise, BMD palm oil may break through 4,200 ringgit and continue to climb; otherwise, it will maintain a narrow range above 4,100 ringgit [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures opened higher and fluctuated within a narrow range, remaining within the previous trading range. Domestic palm oil lacks price competitiveness (palm oil prices are higher than soybean oil), and port inventories increased by nearly 25,000 tons over the weekend, creating a bearish fundamental outlook. In the short term, the DCE palm oil January contract will continue to fluctuate around 8,700 yuan. If BMD palm oil surpasses 4,200 ringgit and continues to rise, Dalian palm oil will follow suit, with the January contract potentially reaching the daily middle track at around 8,920 yuan. Otherwise, it will maintain a narrow range [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil futures rose slightly, boosted by the previous day's increase in CBOT soybeans and soybean oil due to China's purchase of at least 14 cargoes of US soybeans. However, the increase was limited due to sufficient factory supply and lukewarm downstream demand. The domestic soybean oil fundamentals currently have little impact on the market, and the market remains influenced by international related varieties. In the short term, the market is watching whether China will continue to purchase US soybeans. If CBOT soybeans continue to rise, the January contract of Dalian soybean oil may break through the daily upper track resistance at 8,350 yuan and reach around 8,500 yuan. Otherwise, the January contract will face pressure at the daily upper track, and after a period of consolidation, it may enter a profit-taking phase [4]. Soybean Meal - In the short term, in the absence of weather-related news, the main contract of Dalian soybean meal is expected to fluctuate along the half-year line. On the spot market, the fixed prices of oil mills increased by 10-30 yuan/ton, but traders were cautious about following the price increase due to high inventories and rolling replenishment by end-users. Additionally, news of state reserve sales of imported soybeans and the expectation of US soybean purchases ensuring supply in the first quarter of next year have led the market to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to trade in the range of 3,000-3,250 yuan/ton [15]. Summary by Category Oil Price and Spread - Palm Oil: The January contract was priced at 8,708 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the May contract at 8,822 yuan/ton, up 0.3%; the September contract at 8,692 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The BMD palm oil main contract was at 4,184 ringgit/ton, up 0.79%. The price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou was 8,650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [7]. - Soybean Oil: The January contract was priced at 8,320 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; the May contract at 8,092 yuan/ton, up 0.64%; the September contract at 7,998 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was at 51.14 cents/pound, up 1.97%. The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Shandong was 8,480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [11]. - Price Spread: The P 1-5 spread was -116 yuan/ton; the P 5-9 spread was 150 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the P 9-1 spread was -34 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The Y-P 01 spread was -398 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Y-P 05 spread was -752 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Y-P 09 spread was -684 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [5]. Oilseed Futures Price and Spread - Futures Price: The January contract of soybean meal was priced at 3,041 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the May contract at 2,832 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the September contract at 2,947 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The January contract of rapeseed meal was priced at 2,431 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the May contract at 2,397 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the September contract at 2,456 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The CBOT yellow soybean was at 1,157.5 cents/bushel, unchanged [16]. - Spread: The M01-05 spread was 229 yuan/ton; the M05-09 spread was -116 yuan/ton; the M09-01 spread was -113 yuan/ton. The RM01-05 spread was 56 yuan/ton; the RM05-09 spread was -65 yuan/ton; the RM09-01 spread was 9 yuan/ton [17][20].