Group 1: Report Core Views - The domestic sugar market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the supply pressure may increase and suppress the market in the future, affected by the production progress in Thailand and India [3]. - Cotton prices face upward pressure due to squeezed downstream profits and a significant strengthening of the internal - external price spread. However, the stable load of spinning mills, expanded spinning capacity, and relatively low downstream inventory support the market. Short - term prices may fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and orders [14]. - In the short term, the fundamental logic is expected to continue to influence the apple futures market. The logic of a shortage of delivery products is temporarily put on hold, and it remains to be seen when it will return. Attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation, and if there is no significant improvement, the market may continue to decline [20]. - Short - term jujube prices may remain in a low - level fluctuation. Attention should be paid to pre - Chinese New Year downstream purchases. In the long - term, the overall supply - demand of new - season jujubes in China is loose, and prices will continue to face downward pressure [27]. Group 2: Sugar Market Futures Prices and Spreads - On January 20, 2026, SR01 closed at 5290 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.94% and a weekly increase of 0.04%. Other contracts also showed different degrees of decline [4]. - The price differences between different sugar futures contracts, such as SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, etc., also had corresponding changes [4]. Basis - The basis of different regions (Nanning and Kunming) and different sugar futures contracts had different daily and weekly changes on January 19, 2026 [9]. Import Prices - On January 20, 2026, the quota - within and quota - outside import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar decreased compared with the previous period, and the price differences between different regions and import sources also changed [12]. Group 3: Cotton Market Futures Prices and Spreads - On January 20, 2026, cotton 01 closed at 15145 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 5 yuan and a growth rate of 0.03%. Cotton 05 and 09 declined slightly. Some cotton yarn contracts had significant changes [15]. - The price differences between different cotton futures contracts, such as cotton 01 - 05, cotton 05 - 09, etc., and the differences between cotton and cotton yarn also had corresponding changes [15]. Group 4: Apple Market Futures and Spot Prices - On January 20, 2026, AP01 closed at 8144 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.34% and a weekly decline of 100%. Other apple futures contracts also showed different price changes. Spot prices of different apple varieties remained stable [21]. - The price differences between different apple futures contracts, such as AP01 - 05, AP05 - 10, etc., also had corresponding changes [21][22]. Group 5: Jujube Market Futures Month - to - Month Spreads - The month - to - month spreads of jujube futures, such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01, showed different trends in different time periods [28][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the production recovery of finished products is slowing down, the apparent consumption of rebar is rising, inventory is turning to destocking but may accumulate later, and the destocking of hot-rolled coils is accelerating but the increase in warehouse receipts is significant. The fundamentals are neutral, lacking drivers, and supported by the cost side, with limited downside space [3]. - For iron ore, the current dominant factor of its price is not its fundamentals but the macro - expectations. In the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation and slow resumption of production, the fundamentals cannot support the current high valuation, and there is a lack of support for the price to continue to rise. However, after the price drops, the selling pressure is released, and steel mills have the rigid demand for replenishing inventory, so the price also has support at the bottom. Overall, it shows a wide - range shock [22]. - For coking coal and coke, the accident at a factory in Inner Mongolia over the weekend may lead to a contraction in local steel supply, which can repair the profit of steel products on the disk and support steel prices. In the follow - up, the result of the incident should be concerned. If the incident leads to stricter supervision and production restrictions in local areas, the progress of hot metal resumption may slow down, exacerbating the short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal. In the long - term, the change in macro sentiment and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines after the Spring Festival should be focused on. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected recovery of domestic supply" and "weakening of macro sentiment", the long - term prices of coking coal and coke will face greater downward pressure [32]. - For ferroalloys, the ferroalloys are supported by the cost side at the bottom. In the short - term, after the correction, they may show a bottom - shock trend [47]. - For soda ash, the previous warming of commodity sentiment drove some low - valued varieties, and the disk price increased. The middle - stream of soda ash replenished inventory, but the elasticity was limited. From the perspective of fundamentals, as the new production capacity gradually releases production, the daily output of soda ash reaches a new high, and the surplus expectation is also intensifying. At present, the expectation that the long - term supply of soda ash will remain at a high level remains unchanged. The photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate inventory, and the number of kiln blockages begins to increase. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. In November, the export of soda ash was close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continued to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle - streams restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - For glass, there are rumors that some production lines have the expectation of ignition, and the supply - demand expectation has deteriorated. Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, the actual demand and expectation are also weak. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, it is difficult to have a trend - based movement. On the supply side, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired and ignited before the Spring Festival, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. In addition, the policy disturbance to the supply cannot be excluded. At present, the high inventory of the middle - stream of glass needs to be digested, the terminal is in the off - season, and the spot pressure still exists [86]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3191 yuan/ton, down from 3215 yuan/ton on January 19; the closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3315 yuan/ton, down from 3344 yuan/ton on January 19 [4]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3329 yuan/ton, down from 3336 yuan/ton on January 19; the aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, down from 3280 yuan/ton on January 19 [9][11]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 89 yuan/ton, up from 75 yuan/ton on January 19; the 01 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was - 45 yuan/ton, up from - 64 yuan/ton on January 19 [9][11]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 - 05 rebar spread was 80 yuan/ton, up from 75 yuan/ton on January 19; the 01 - 05 hot - rolled coil spread was 39 yuan/ton, down from 45 yuan/ton on January 19 [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of 01 contract was 757 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from January 19 and 73 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 794 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from January 19 and 32 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 basis was 48.5 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from January 19 and 84.5 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Fundamental Data**: - The daily average hot metal output on January 16, 2026, was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week and up 1.46 tons month - on - month [27]. - The 45 - port desilting volume on January 16, 2026, was 319.89 tons, down 3.38 tons week - on - week and up 6.44 tons month - on - month [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 162, down 1.5 from January 19; the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 111.5, down 28.5 from January 19 [34]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1620 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19; the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [37]. - **Profit**: The on - the - spot coking profit on January 20, 2026, was - 57 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from January 19 and 38 yuan from January 13 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - **Price Data**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 48 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from January 19; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [48]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 124, down 66 from January 19 [48]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - **Price Data**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan from January 19; the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from January 19 [49]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was 126, up 14 from January 19 [49]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1177 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from January 19, with a daily decline of 1.26% [62]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19; the light - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [62]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the Shahe heavy - soda basis was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [62]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was - 61, unchanged from January 19 [62]. Glass - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1056 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from January 19, with a daily decline of 1.31% [87]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 contract basis (Shahe) was - 234 yuan/ton, down 1234 yuan from January 19 [87]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was - 109, up 1 from January 19 [87]. - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: On January 16, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio of Shahe was 135, the sales - to - production ratio of Hubei was 90, the sales - to - production ratio of East China was 91, and the sales - to - production ratio of South China was 105 [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Spring Festival stocking will support short - term pig prices, but the abundant supply and the expectation of destocking of pressure - bar pigs will restrict the price increase. Future attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm and consumption realization [2] 3. Summary According to the Content Supply - side Information - The industry's slaughter volume remains low, and the behavior of holding back pigs for fattening continues. The inventory of reproductive sows has decreased month - on - month for four consecutive months to 39.9 million heads, alleviating the supply - side pressure [2] - Large - scale enterprises have lowered their slaughter plans, but the proportion of large pigs in stock is relatively high, and the increase in later slaughter may suppress prices. The overall supply of pigs in 2026 is still abundant, limiting the upward space for prices [2] Demand - side Information - The Spring Festival stocking has started. The fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises has slightly rebounded to 87.61%. Catering consumption has increased by 3.2% year - on - year. Coupled with the end of the bacon - curing season and the pre - festival consumption climb, demand has strengthened marginally [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak. With cost support and high inventory in a tug - of - war, prices are expected to remain volatile, and an upward trend requires substantial demand recovery and accelerated inventory reduction [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances dominate market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals remain unchanged. In the short term, the futures market will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of cost support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Main producers in Xinjiang and Gansu are generally in the red, leading to some voluntary production cuts. High - cost areas in the southwest have further limited production, tightening the supply. Coal prices have stabilized, and the price transmission effect in the photovoltaic industry chain provides significant cost support. However, downstream demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weak, and high social inventory suppresses price increases [3]. - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8605 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.71%. The trading volume is 281,253 lots, with a weekly increase of 4.44%. The open interest is 238,869 lots, with a negligible weekly change [4]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products since April 1st has stimulated short - term export rush demand, potentially supporting polysilicon demand. The comprehensive cost line of leading enterprises is about 42,000 yuan/ton, providing a bottom - line support. However, regulatory interviews with leading enterprises have led to concerns about the collapse of the price - support logic, and there is significant inventory accumulation due to weak demand [3]. - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50,200 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.14% but a weekly decrease of 2.14%. The trading volume is 21,717 lots, with a daily increase of 70.96% but a weekly decrease of 53.04%. The open interest is 46,220 lots, with a weekly decrease of 9.27% [5]. Photovoltaic Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Production**: Data on the weekly production of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang; the weekly production of polysilicon in China and overseas; the weekly production of silicon wafers in China; the monthly production of battery cells in China; and the monthly production of photovoltaic modules in China are presented [8][12][16]. - **Inventory**: Data on the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon, the total weekly inventory of polysilicon in China, the weekly inventory of silicon wafers, the weekly inventory of photovoltaic battery外销 factories, and the weekly finished - product inventory of photovoltaic modules are presented [27][28][29]. - **Profit**: Data on the profit of industrial silicon, the weekly profit of polysilicon, the profit of silicon wafers in China, and the process profit of single - crystal N - type battery cells in China are presented [32][33][34].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Aluminum**: Supply - Inner Mongolia still has electrolytic aluminum enterprises' capacity expansion, and the theoretical operating capacity of the industry is expected to increase; Demand - demand is growing steadily, with some short - term production cuts, but the tight supply - demand situation supports prices. Industry profits remain high, and low inventory is the key support for prices. Overseas macro - situation and macro - factors may continuously support aluminum prices, and the market is currently showing a strong high - level oscillation [3]. - **Alumina**: Supply - overall, alumina supply is still in surplus, and there are still fundamental negative factors; Demand - electrolytic aluminum plants have low acceptance of high - priced goods, and the transaction price remains at a discount. The spot trading atmosphere of alumina is okay this week. As the ore price drops, the cost of alumina enterprises is expected to decrease, and the willingness to cut production is reduced. The short - term policy expectation still exists, and the short - term price bottom may gradually emerge [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Indicators - There are data charts on the closing prices and trading volumes of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum futures, as well as seasonal data on price spreads, including Shanghai aluminum continuous - second - continuous seasonal, LME aluminum 3 - 15 spread seasonal, etc. [5][10] - There are also data charts on alumina futures closing prices, trading volumes, and spreads, as well as spot prices, price spreads, and basis of alumina and aluminum [15][17][18] 3.2 Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: There are data on China's bauxite monthly production, import volume, and port inventory, including seasonal data and provincial - level production data [22][23] - **Alumina**: Data on alumina production, import volume, import profit and loss, and production capacity utilization rate are provided, including national and provincial - level weekly production capacity utilization rates [27][28][30] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There are data on China and global electrolytic aluminum monthly production, China's electrolytic aluminum weekly production, net import volume, and import profit and loss [35][37][41] 3.3 Downstream Demand - There are data on the production and production capacity utilization rate of various aluminum products, including aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, aluminum wires, aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots, both monthly and weekly data [42][43] - Data on aluminum product exports, including the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products, and the export profit of aluminum products are provided [51][53] - There are also data on the demand in related industries, such as real estate (housing construction and completion area, fixed - asset investment), automotive (automobile and new - energy vehicle production), power grid (power grid project investment), and photovoltaic (solar power project investment, photovoltaic new - installed capacity) [57][59][62] 3.4 Inventory - There are data on the inventory of bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum, including the monthly inventory of bauxite in different regions, the in - plant inventory of alumina enterprises, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum [66][69][72] 3.5 Cost and Profit - There are data on the prices of various raw materials, including domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - membrane caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas, and European electricity prices [75][76] - There is also data on alumina cost and China's electrolytic aluminum cost - profit situation [75][76]

Report Core View Bullish Factors - The losses of smelters have widened, and the supply pressure has significantly decreased month-on-month, which is bullish [3]. - Although the import window is closed, the domestic inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has been repaired, which is bullish [3]. Bearish Factors - The import volume of zinc ore has declined, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, which may lead to production cuts, which is bearish [3]. - The LME zinc inventory has increased significantly, indicating a loose global supply, which is bearish [3]. Trading Advice - It is advisable to wait and see. The ratio of futures to spot has rebounded, and the export window may close again, so caution is needed [3]. Grouped Summaries Processing and End - demand - Included data on the market sentiment index, weekly inventory, weekly output, net exports of galvanized sheets, net imports of die - cast zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets and zinc oxide, real estate development investment, sales and land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [4][7][10] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Included data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrate, zinc concentrate TC, monthly zinc ingot production, production profit and processing fee of refined zinc enterprises, raw material inventory days, and zinc inventory in exchanges [18][20][21] Futures and Spot Market Review - Included data on the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc price and the US dollar index, LME zinc premium, and the basis of zinc ingots [27][28][29]

Report on the Oilseed Industry Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of soybean meal remains ample due to sufficient imports, high oil - mill operation rates, and stable production. In the demand side, the high inventory of downstream feed enterprises and losses in pig farming have weakened purchasing power. Seasonal factors also play a role as demand enters a slow season. Overseas, the expected high - yield of South American soybeans has put downward pressure on US soybean prices, leading to lower import costs in China. Overall, the supply - demand situation is weak [2] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The supply is tight as domestic rapeseed stocks have hit historical lows, and press volumes have stagnated. The delay in Australian rapeseed arrivals has exacerbated the situation. On the demand side, the winter season has reduced aquaculture demand, and the expanded price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal has diminished the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal. However, the potential improvement in China - Canada relations may increase future imports [7] Supply - Demand Analysis Soybean Meal - **Supply**: Abundant imports, high oil - mill operation rates, and stable production result in high inventory levels [2] - **Demand**: High inventory of feed enterprises, losses in pig - farming, and seasonal factors lead to weak demand [2] - **Overseas**: Expected high - yield in South America, USDA's inventory increase and export decrease forecasts for US soybeans affect the market [2] Rapeseed Meal - **Supply**: Low domestic rapeseed stocks, stagnant press volumes, and delayed Australian rapeseed arrivals cause supply shortages. Future imports may increase due to potential policy changes [7] - **Demand**: Reduced aquaculture demand in winter and limited substitution demand due to price differences [7] Report on the Edible Oil Industry Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Oil**: High weekly production from imported soybean crushing, declining inventory, and the start of Spring Festival stocking support the spot market. Recovering catering consumption and increased small - package oil purchases are positive factors, but the weaker - than - expected terminal stocking has limited the upside. Overseas bio - diesel news has provided external support [37] - **Palm Oil**: High inventory in Malaysia and domestic ports creates supply pressure. Although domestic demand for edible and industrial use has increased, high inventory restricts price movements. Policy uncertainties from Indonesia and the US add to the complexity [37] - **Rapeseed Oil**: A significant drop in domestic rapeseed crushing and production, but expected Australian arrivals will ease supply concerns. Pre - Spring Festival stocking has supported short - term demand, but high prices have dampened purchasing enthusiasm [37] Supply - Demand Analysis Soybean Oil - **Supply**: High weekly production from imported soybeans and decreasing inventory [37] - **Demand**: Recovering catering consumption and increased small - package oil purchases, but weak terminal stocking [37] - **External**: Overseas bio - diesel news provides support [37] Palm Oil - **Supply**: High inventory in Malaysia and domestic ports [37] - **Demand**: Increased edible and industrial demand, but high inventory restricts prices [37] - **Policy**: Uncertainties from Indonesia's and the US's bio - diesel policies [37] Rapeseed Oil - **Supply**: Decreased domestic production, but expected Australian imports will ease supply [37] - **Demand**: Pre - Spring Festival stocking supports short - term demand, but high prices limit purchases [37] - **Policy**: Potential increase in imports due to improved China - Canada relations and uncertain overseas bio - diesel policies [37]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The copper market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with copper prices oscillating at a high level. Tightness at the mine end and strong overseas fundamentals provide support, but domestic inventory build - up and policy risks limit the upside potential [2][3] - Bullish factors include supply - side issues such as strikes in Chile, mining accidents in Indonesia, and low annual copper processing fees, which put pressure on global smelting capacity and support copper prices; the cooling of US inflation strengthens the expectation of interest rate cuts, and long - term demand from new energy and AI infrastructure boosts copper consumption [2] - Bearish factors are that the continuous build - up of copper social inventory and the expansion of spot discounts reflect low acceptance of high prices by downstream users; the US plan to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran raises concerns about disruptions to copper trade flows and a decline in demand [2] Group 2: Copper Futures Market Data - **Weekly Futures Price Changes**: The latest price of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 100,770 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.63%; SHFE Copper Index - weighted is at 100,799 yuan/ton, down 0.64% weekly. International Copper is at 91,520 yuan/ton, with a 1.52% weekly increase. LME Copper 3 - month is at 13,148.5 dollars/ton, up 3.52% weekly. COMEX Copper is at 599.15 dollars/pound, with a 3.19% weekly increase [4] - **Weekly Changes in Futures Positions and Trading Volume**: The position of SHFE Copper Main Contract increased by 37,259 to 225,933, and the trading volume was 322,422. The position of SHFE Copper Index - weighted decreased by 7,461 to 683,376, and the trading volume was 643,234. The position of International Copper decreased by 267 to 7,136, and the trading volume was 12,196. The position of LME Copper 3 - month decreased by 38,282 to 239,014, and the trading volume was 65,624. The position of COMEX Copper decreased by 2,004 to 141,386, and the trading volume was 58,290 [4] Group 3: Copper Spot Market Data - **Weekly Spot Price Changes**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 102,575 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan (0.48%) weekly. Shanghai Wumaom is at 102,170 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan (- 0.35%) weekly. Guangdong Southern Reserve is at 102,640 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (0.08%) weekly. Yangtze Non - ferrous is at 102,940 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan (0.31%) weekly [8][10] - **Weekly Changes in Spot Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 125 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 80 yuan (177.78%). Shanghai Wumaom premium/discount is - 120 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 70 yuan (140%). Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is 160 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 180 yuan (- 900%). Yangtze Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 75 yuan (- 1500%). LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium is 37.6 dollars/ton, up 20.85 dollars (124.48%) weekly. LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium is 83.5 dollars/ton, down 17.96 dollars (- 17.7%) weekly [10] Group 4: Copper Advanced Data - The copper import profit is - 1,465.85 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 677.34 yuan (85.9%) - The copper concentrate TC is - 46 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.24 dollars (2.77%) - The copper - aluminum ratio is 4.1989, with a weekly decline of 0.0567 (- 1.33%) - The refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,258.63 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,575.77 yuan (- 32.59%) [11] Group 5: Copper Inventory Data - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Changes**: SHFE Copper warehouse receipts total 160,417 tons, up 49,201 tons (44.24%) weekly. International Copper warehouse receipts total 11,286 tons, up 10,233 tons (971.79%) weekly. SHFE Copper inventory is 180,543 tons, up 35,201 tons (24.22%) weekly. LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 91,025 tons, down 24,125 tons (- 20.95%) weekly. LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 50,100 tons, up 24,175 tons (93.25%) weekly [15] - **Other Inventory Changes**: LME Copper inventory is 141,125 tons, up 50 tons (0.04%) weekly. COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 331,096 tons, up 9,989 tons (3.11%) weekly. COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 207,621 tons, up 13,771 tons (7.1%) weekly. COMEX Copper inventory is 538,717 tons, up 23,760 tons (4.61%) weekly. Copper mine port inventory is 428,000 tons, down 68,000 tons (- 13.71%) weekly. Social inventory is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons (1.04%) weekly [17] Group 6: Copper Midstream Production - In November 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8% - In November 2025, the monthly copper product production was 2.226 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. The cumulative production from January to November was 22.593 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [19] Group 7: Copper Midstream Capacity Utilization - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 51.1%, with a month - on - month decrease of 12.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.06 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 20.59%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper strips was 64.48%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.96 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper bars was 56.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.64 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.46 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 61.59%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.9 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 18.99 percentage points [21][22] Group 8: Copper Element Imports - In December 2025, the monthly import of copper concentrates was 2.704298 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import from January to December was 30.319797 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% - In November 2025, the monthly import of anode copper was 58,333 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 16%. The cumulative import from January to November was 688,621 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15% - In November 2025, the monthly import of cathode copper was 269,205 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 25%. The cumulative import from January to November was 3,085,712 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 8% - In November 2025, the monthly import of scrap copper was 208,143 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 20%. The cumulative import from January to November was 2,103,603 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% - In December 2025, the monthly import of copper products was 437,408.903 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 19%. The cumulative import from January to December was 5,320,669.5 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [24]

Report Core View - Bullish factors include the central bank conducting reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 21.22 billion yuan, resulting in a marginal easing of liquidity. Also, Treasury bond futures closed slightly stable, heating up at the end of the session with a slight decline in yields [2] - Bearish factors are that both China's CPI and PPI rose in December, increasing inflation pressure, and the decreased expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising global trade uncertainties have led to increased uncertainty in foreign capital inflows [2] - The trading advisory view suggests paying attention to the short - term decline of the basis and closely monitoring the price support from the central bank's liquidity operations [2] Data Presented in the Report (Sources from Wind) 1. Treasury Bond Yield - The report shows the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond yields from 2024 - 04 to 2025 - 12 [3] 2. Treasury Bond Term Spread - It presents the trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond spreads from 2024 - 04 to 2025 - 12 [4] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Open Interest - The open interest trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from 2015 - 12 to 2025 - 12 are shown [6] 3.2 Trading Volume - The trading volume trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from 2024 - 04 to 2025 - 12 are presented [7] 3.3 Basis of Current - Quarter Contracts - The basis trends of current - quarter contracts for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are shown in different time periods [8][9][12] 3.4 Inter - Delivery Spread (Current - Quarter - Next - Quarter) - The inter - delivery spread trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from different time periods are presented [16][17] 3.5 Inter - Variety Spread - The trends of the TS * 4 - T and T * 3 - TL inter - variety spreads from different time periods are shown [18][19]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [2] - Report date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Research author: Chen Naixuan Z0023138 [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [3] Group 2: Core Views Bullish factors - Indonesia tightens nickel ore quotas, reducing potential supply gaps and providing cost - side support for prices [4] - Market funds flow into base metals, with sufficient commodity capital liquidity, boosting market sentiment [4] Bearish factors - Weak demand: limited boost from new energy vehicles, and downstream purchases on demand, resulting in insufficient consumption - side support [4] - High inventory and long - term oversupply situation remain unchanged, with high levels of LME and domestic visible inventories [4] Trading advisory view - Pay attention to the implementation of Indonesian policies, observe market fluctuations, and avoid blind position - building [4] Group 3: Market Data Nickel futures - The latest value of SHFE Nickel main contract is 146,750 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,550 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.77% [5] - The latest value of SHFE Nickel continuous contract 1 is 146,750 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 7,660 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.51% [5] - The latest value of SHFE Nickel continuous contract 2 is 147,020 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 7,800 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.60% [5] - The latest value of SHFE Nickel continuous contract 3 is 147,320 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 7,740 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.60% [5] - The latest value of LME Nickel 3M is 18,590 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 890 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 5.55% [5] Nickel trading volume and positions - The position volume is 101,617 lots, a decrease of 22,531 lots or 18.2% [5] - The trading volume is 1,738,133 lots, an increase of 654,931 lots or 60.46% [5] - The number of warehouse receipts is 41,972 tons, an increase of 3,116 tons or 8.02% [5] - The basis of the main contract is - 520 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,100 yuan or a decrease of 67.90% [5] Stainless steel futures - The latest value of stainless steel main contract is 14,415 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 560 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4% [5] - The latest value of stainless steel continuous contract 1 is 14,410 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 635 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.61% [5] - The latest value of stainless steel continuous contract 2 is 14,415 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 555 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.00% [5] - The latest value of stainless steel continuous contract 3 is 14,440 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 525 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.77% [5] Stainless steel trading volume and positions - The trading volume is 489,832 lots, an increase of 233,153 lots or 90.83% [5] - The position volume is 145,444 lots, an increase of 16,708 lots or 12.98% [5] - The number of warehouse receipts is 46,118 tons, a decrease of 1,417 tons or 2.98% [5] - The basis of the main contract is 355 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan or 14.52% [5] Nickel spot prices - The latest value of Jinchuan Nickel is 153,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3,350 yuan and a daily increase rate of 2.23% [5] - The latest value of imported nickel is 146,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4,100 yuan and a daily increase rate of 2.88% [5] - The latest value of 1 electrolytic nickel is 150,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3,600 yuan and a daily increase rate of 2.46% [5] - The latest value of nickel beans is 148,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4,100 yuan and a daily increase rate of 2.84% [5] - The latest value of electrowon nickel is 146,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4,050 yuan and a daily increase rate of 2.85% [5] Inventory data - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 61,046 tons, an increase of 2,126 tons [6] - The LME nickel inventory is 285,282 tons, an increase of 624 tons [6] - The stainless steel social inventory is 843.7 thousand tons, a decrease of 10.9 thousand tons [6] - The nickel pig iron inventory is 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons [6] Group 4: Charts and Graphs - Stainless steel futures main contract closing price chart from February 24 to December 25 [7] - Nickel spot average price chart including nickel beans, 1 imported nickel, and SMM 1 electrolytic nickel [9] - Nickel internal and external market trend chart including SHFE Nickel futures main contract closing price and LME Nickel (3 - month) electronic - trading closing price [11] - China's refined nickel monthly production seasonal chart [12] - China's primary nickel monthly total supply (including imports) seasonal chart [12] - Domestic social inventory (nickel plate + nickel beans) seasonal chart [13] - LME nickel inventory seasonal chart [13] - Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) average price chart [15] - China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonal chart [15] - China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price (national average) chart [16] - Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price chart [16] - China's nickel iron monthly production seasonal chart [17] - Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production seasonal chart [18] - Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price chart from February 24 to December 25 [20] - Battery - grade nickel sulfate premium chart [22] - Nickel bean production of nickel sulfate profit margin seasonal chart [23] - China's externally - purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel profit seasonal chart [23] - China's nickel sulfate monthly production (metal tons) chart [24] - Ternary precursor monthly production capacity seasonal chart [24] - China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin seasonal chart [26] - Stainless steel monthly production seasonal chart [28] - Stainless steel inventory seasonal chart [29]