国债衍生品周报 2025/09/26 交易咨询观点: 建议密切关注资金面动向和经济基本面数据，保持谨慎观望态势。 国债到期收益率 source： wind % 2Y国债到期收益率 5Y国债到期收益率 10Y国债到期收益率 30Y国债到期收益率 7Y国债到期收益率 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 2 3 资金利率 source： wind % 存款类机构质押式回购加权利率:1天 存款类机构质押式回购加权利率:7天 逆回购利率：7天 23/12 24/06 24/12 25/06 1 2 3 国债期限利差：7Y-2Y bp 国债利差：7Y-2Y 国债期限利差：30Y-7Y bp 国债利差：30Y-7Y source： wind 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 0 20 40 60 source： wind 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 0 20 40 . 80 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices are in a short - term oscillatory pattern. Weak fundamentals restrict the rebound space, while raw material cost support and macro - expectations slow down the downward rhythm. Negative feedback pressure is accumulating, and the resistance to downward breakthrough is less than that to upward breakthrough [3]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate with weak trend. Short - term policies fall short of expectations, and supply and demand are in a tight balance. After the interest rate cut, trading will be closer to the fundamentals [20]. - For coal and coke, downstream pre - festival restocking improves the coking coal inventory structure, but high steel supply and inventory will suppress the price increase. A substantial positive policy or a significant decline in coal mine operating rates is needed to break through the previous high [30]. - The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, and the trading logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The decline space is limited as it is near the cost line [46]. - The supply of soda ash is strong and demand is weak. Although the export in August is better than expected, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [59]. - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The upper and middle - stream inventories are high, and demand is weak. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3164, 3227, and 3071 respectively, and those of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3357, 3365, and 3414 respectively [4]. - The基差and月差of螺纹钢and热卷had different changes compared with the previous day [4][7][9]. - **Analysis** - The current weak fundamentals of steel restrict the rebound space, and the negative feedback pressure is increasing [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 803.5, 783, and 762 respectively. The基差and月差also had corresponding changes [21]. - **Fundamentals** - The daily average pig iron output was 241.02 million tons, and the 45 - port疏港量was 339.17 million tons. The global shipping volume decreased by 248.3 million tons week - on - week [24]. Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the焦煤仓单 cost and基差of different varieties had different changes. The焦炭仓单 cost and基差also showed corresponding trends [33]. - **Analysis** - Downstream pre - festival restocking improves the coking coal inventory structure, but high steel supply and inventory will suppress the price increase [30]. Ferroalloys - **Prices and Spreads** - For silicon iron, on September 24, 2025, the基差in Ningxia was - 18, and the月差also changed. For silicon manganese, the基差in Inner Mongolia was 198, and the月差had corresponding changes [46][49]. - **Analysis** - The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, and the trading logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality [46]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of纯碱05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1394, 1448, and 1307 respectively, with daily increases of 2.42%, 1.76%, and 2.67% respectively [60]. - **Analysis** - The supply of soda ash is strong and demand is weak. Although the export in August is better than expected, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [59]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of玻璃05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1356, 1424, and 1237 respectively, with daily increases of 3.35%, 2.52%, and 4.56% respectively [85]. - **Analysis** - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The upper and middle - stream inventories are high, and demand is weak. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Fed's internal divergence increases policy uncertainty, weakening the US dollar's credit. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and political unrest in Europe boost safe - haven buying. Central bank gold purchases offer long - term support, and the decline of the US dollar index is beneficial for gold prices. Domestic gold prices are relatively stronger than international ones [3]. - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest - rate decision, the short - term impact of macro factors on copper prices will decrease. Copper shows certain resilience and may continue to fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton. Supply is tight in the short term, and demand remains stable [17]. - **Aluminum**: The core factors for aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the September interest - rate cut, the macro - drive pauses, and the focus of Shanghai aluminum trading may shift to fundamentals. After a short - term price correction, Shanghai aluminum may fluctuate strongly [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply is in an oversupply state. The market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average. The inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [65]. - **Nickel**: For nickel ore, there are concerns about supply stability. The prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to be strong. Nickel - iron prices are firm, and stainless - steel prices are in a stalemate [80]. - **Tin**: After the Fed's interest - rate decision, the impact of macro factors on tin prices decreases. In the short - term supply - tight situation, tin prices may mainly fluctuate [95]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices may fluctuate and consolidate [107]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: Near the National Day holiday, both long and short sides in the technical aspect are closing positions. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and market sentiment is average [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Movement**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, etc. [4][9][12] - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [16]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME copper are provided. The main contract of Shanghai copper is 79,960 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.05% [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various copper spot prices are given. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 80,045 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.04% [23]. - **Import and Processing**: The copper import profit and loss is - 108.53 yuan per ton, with a daily change of - 29.82 yuan and a daily change rate of 37.89%. The copper concentrate TC is - 40.65 US dollars per ton [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 27,419 tons, a daily decrease of 308 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.11%. LME copper inventory is 144,975 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.28% [33][35]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum futures (main contract, continuous contracts), LME aluminum, and alumina futures are provided. For example, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 20,705 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.1% [40]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various aluminum spot prices are given. For example, the price of East China aluminum is 20,680 yuan per ton, with no daily change [52]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts total 67,736 tons, a daily decrease of 1,224 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.77%. LME aluminum inventory is 517,150 tons, a daily increase of 3,300 tons and a daily increase rate of 0.64% [61]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME zinc are provided. The main contract of Shanghai zinc is 21,860 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.07% [66]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot prices are given. For example, the average price of SMM 0 zinc is 21,820 yuan per ton, a daily decrease of 60 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.27% [71]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts total 57,357 tons, a daily increase of 744 tons and a daily increase rate of 1.31%. LME zinc inventory is 44,400 tons, a daily decrease of 1,375 tons and a daily decrease rate of 3% [76]. Nickel - **Futures Data**: The latest values,环比 differences, and环比 of Shanghai nickel futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME nickel are provided. The main contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,450 yuan per ton, with a环比 increase of 720 yuan and a环比 increase rate of 1% [81]. - **Downstream Situation**: Nickel - iron prices are firm, and stainless - steel prices are in a stalemate. The market is in a wait - and - see state before the holiday [80]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME tin are provided. The main contract of Shanghai tin is 271,650 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 1,770 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.66% [96]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin spot prices are given. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 271,400 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 700 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.26% [101]. - **Inventory**: The total tin warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,342 tons, a daily decrease of 76 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.18%. LME tin inventory is 2,575 tons, a daily decrease of 5 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.19% [103]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures (main contract, continuous contracts) are provided. The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closes at 72,880 yuan per ton, with a daily decrease of 780 yuan and a weekly increase of 200 yuan [108]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium spot prices are given. For example, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,850 yuan per ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 700 yuan [110]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipts of Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 39,749, with a daily increase of 300 and a daily increase rate of 0.76% [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot prices are provided. For example, the price of East China 553 industrial silicon is 9,500 yuan per ton, with no daily change [117]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures (main contract, continuous contracts) are given. The main contract of industrial silicon is 9,020 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan and a daily increase rate of 1.06% [118].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamental situation of sugar remains bearish. Brazil's peak sugar - crushing season is suppressing international sugar prices, there are clear expectations of increased production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, and the global sugar supply - demand balance is shifting to surplus. In China, the unexpectedly high import volume in August has increased the supply pressure of processed sugar, and with the end of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking and the upcoming new beet sugar season, the market lacks positive drivers [3]. - The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but the poor spinning profit of downstream enterprises limits their acceptance of high - priced cotton. The new - season cotton in Xinjiang is expected to have a good harvest. The price of locally purchased seed cotton has weakened with the futures price, and the large number of pre - sales of new cotton has put significant hedging pressure on cotton prices before the new cotton is listed. The overall trend is stable but weak, and attention should be paid to the large - scale listing of machine - picked cotton [13]. - The harvest of early - maturing Fuji apples in the western region is mostly over, and the price of early - picked Fuji is higher than last year. The remaining inventory of stored Fuji has poor quality and limited sales speed. The bag - removing time of late - maturing Fuji in the western region has been postponed by about 10 days due to rainy weather. The number of trucks arriving at the sales areas has slightly increased, but the overall sales are average, with good - quality goods selling better and some backlogs in transit warehouses [18]. - On the basis of last year's bumper harvest, the output of new - season grey dates may decline significantly year - on - year, but the decline may be smaller compared to normal years. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season is approaching, the overall downstream trading volume is average. With good weather in the production areas and high inventory of old dates, there may be downward pressure on jujube prices, but attention should be paid to precipitation in the production areas to prevent weather - related speculation [26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 24, 2025, SR01 closed at 5497 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.97% and a weekly decrease of 0.58%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - **Basis**: The basis between Nanning and SR01 was 336 yuan/ton on September 23, 2025, with a daily decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 7 yuan/ton. Similar data are provided for other combinations [8]. - **Import Prices**: The quota - free import price of Brazilian sugar was 4382 yuan/ton on September 24, 2025, with a daily increase of 90 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 51 yuan/ton. The out - of - quota price was 5563 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 117 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 67 yuan/ton [11]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On September 24, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13555 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 0.11%. Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19710 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 75 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 0.38% [14]. - **Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1593 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The spread between cotton 01 and 05 was - 20 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton [15]. Apple - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 24, 2025, AP01 closed at 8336 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.58% and a weekly increase of 0.77%. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.8 yuan/jin, with no daily or weekly change [19]. - **Spreads and Other Data**: The spread between AP01 and 05 was 85 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 18.06% and a weekly increase of 84.78%. The main contract basis was 256 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 18.73% and a weekly decrease of 26.44% [20]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: New - season grey dates may see a significant year - on - year decline in output compared to last year's bumper harvest, but the decline may be smaller than in normal years. The downstream trading volume is average, and with high old - date inventory and good weather in the production areas, there may be downward pressure on prices [26]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between jujube futures 01 and 05, 05 and 09, and 09 and 01 showed different values and trends in different time periods [27][29].

Core Views - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rebounded after a sharp decline, with short - term fluctuations around 4350 ringgit. Supported by falling production and improved exports, it may rebound to 4400 - 4450 ringgit, but will face downward pressure again later. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are in a rebound, testing the 9000 - yuan support. After the Malaysian palm oil's rebound ends, Dalian palm oil may follow the downward trend, possibly breaking 9000 yuan to seek support at 8800 yuan. After the National Day holiday, it may show a pattern of first weakening then strengthening [3]. - CBOT soybeans and soy oil stopped falling after a sharp decline, but the fundamentals remain bearish. In the domestic market, with the end of stockpiling approaching, the market will enter the holiday mode soon. The sufficient supply of soybeans in factories and the expected increase in soybean imports in the fourth quarter may drag down the futures market. The Dalian soy oil 1 - month contract will continue to test the 8000 - yuan support after a narrow - range oscillation [4]. - Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans and soybean products has increased the crushing profit of oil mills, leading to concentrated purchases of Argentine soybeans by domestic buyers, alleviating the tight supply expectation for December - January. The short - term support for the main contract of Dalian soybean meal is in the 2900 - 2920 - yuan range, and it may have a technical rebound before the holiday. The spot price of soybean meal has been adjusted down, and the near - month basis is strengthening. The market generally believes that the price inflection point may be postponed to November [18]. Price Information Oil Price | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 198 | - 8 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 376 | 24 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 574 | - 16 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 238 | - 50 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 58 | 14 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 296 | 36 | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 529 | 24 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 67 | - 30 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 596 | 6 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 968 | 26 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 1008 | 68 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 690 | 78 | | Y/M 01 | / | 2.7616 | 0.15% | | Y/M 05 | / | 2.8716 | - 1.11% | | Y/M 09 | / | 2.7401 | - 1.4% | | OI/RM 01 | / | 4.085 | 1.81% | | OI/RM 05 | / | 4.0666 | 0.13% | | OI/RM 09 | / | 3.8988 | - 0.01% | [5] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Price | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm oil 01 | yuan/ton | 9126 | 0.8% | | Palm oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8944 | 0.99% | | Palm oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8588 | 1.27% | | BMD palm oil main contract | ringgit/ton | 4372 | 0.67% | | 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | 8970 | 110 | | 24 - degree basis in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | - 194 | - 94 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 470.392 | - 1.168 | | International soybean oil - crude palm oil | US dollars/ton | - 71.91 | 17.65 | [8] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Price | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8100 | 0.07% | | Soybean oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7852 | 0.59% | | Soybean oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7780 | 0.46% | | CBOT soybean oil main contract | cents/pound | 49.84 | 0.42% | | Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot | yuan/ton | 8270 | 120 | | Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis | yuan/ton | 64 | - 40 | | BOHO (weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 52.637 | - 8.563 | | Domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil | yuan/ton | - 520 | 80 | [14] Oilseed Futures Price | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean meal 01 | 2930 | 2 | 0.07% | | Soybean meal 05 | 2749 | 16 | 0.59% | | Soybean meal 09 | 2856 | 13 | 0.46% | | Rapeseed meal 01 | 2395 | - 52 | - 2.13% | | Rapeseed meal 05 | 2319 | - 9 | - 0.39% | | Rapeseed meal 09 | 2398 | - 13 | - 0.54% | | CBOT yellow soybeans | 1012.5 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1136 | - 0.0042 | - 0.06% | [19] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spread | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 195 | - 57 | RM01 - 05 | 119 | - 36 | | M05 - 09 | - 110 | - 1 | RM05 - 09 | - 83 | - 9 | | M09 - 01 | - 85 | 58 | RM09 - 01 | - 36 | 45 | | Soybean meal Rizhao spot | 2930 | 0 | Soybean meal Rizhao basis | 2 | 56 | | Rapeseed meal Fujian spot | 2590 | - 65 | Rapeseed meal Fujian basis | 143 | 16 | | Soybean and rapeseed meal spot spread | 275 | - 50 | Soybean and rapeseed meal futures spread | 481 | - 25 | [20][22]

Report Overview - The report is a daily soft commodities report dated September 22, 2025, covering sugar, cotton, apples, and dates [1] Sugar Core View - Domestic sugar supply pressure is increasing due to higher imports and the start of the northern sugar mills' crushing season, and the 25/26 domestic sugar production is expected to increase slightly. Globally, the sugar supply surplus persists, suppressing international sugar prices. As a result, both domestic and international sugar prices continue to be weak [3] Price and Spread - Sugar futures prices mostly declined on September 22, 2025, with SR01 closing at 5452, down 0.16% daily and 1.75% weekly [4] - The price differences between different sugar futures contracts also showed certain changes, such as SR01 - 05 being 15, unchanged daily but down 8 weekly [4] Basis and Import Price - Sugar basis prices in Nanning and Kunming showed different daily and weekly changes, for example, Nanning - SR01 had a basis of 369, up 3 daily and 19 weekly [11] - Import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar decreased both daily and weekly, and the price differences between domestic prices and import prices also changed [14] Cotton Market Situation - In the corn market, the supply of new - season corn in the Northeast is increasing, and the price of fresh corn in the producing areas is supported by the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises. In the North China region, the prices of old and new corn are diverging, and the supply in the sales areas is weak [16] Price and Spread - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices generally declined on September 22, 2025, for example, cotton 01 closed at 13610, down 110 or 0.8% [17] - The spreads between different cotton futures contracts and the spreads between cotton and cotton yarn also showed certain characteristics, such as the cotton basis being 1563, unchanged [18] Apples Market Situation - Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales of apples are limited. In Shandong, the packaging volume is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are almost cleared. For new - season apples, the early Fuji is almost over, and the later quality is poor [22] Price and Spread - Apple futures prices showed mixed trends on September 22, 2025, with AP01 closing at 8291, up 0.22% daily but down 0.16% weekly [23] - The spreads between different apple futures contracts and the basis also changed, for example, AP01 - 05 was 47, unchanged daily but up 9.30% weekly [23] Dates Market Situation - After a high - yield year last year, the production of grey dates in the new season may decline significantly year - on - year, but the decline compared to normal years may be small. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival is approaching, the downstream trading volume is average. With the high inventory of old dates, dates may face downward pressure, but attention should be paid to precipitation in the production areas [31] Price Spread and Related Data - The spreads between different date futures contracts showed different trends over time, and the sum of date warehouse receipts and effective forecasts also changed [32][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day, with limited upward and downward space. The upper limit is restricted by demand and the lack of substantial reduction in supply, while the lower limit is supported by macro - expectations and restocking [3]. - Iron ore prices are expected to move sideways. The downward space is limited by restocking and high hot - metal production, but the upward space is constrained by demand and high shipping volumes, resulting in a weak price trend [21]. - For coal and coke, downstream restocking has improved the inventory structure of coking coal, and coke's second - round price cut has been fully implemented. However, the high supply pressure of steel and high inventory will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [35]. - The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, which is beneficial for short - term price increases. The trading logic for the long - term is based on the anti - involution expectation, and the downward space is limited [51]. - The supply pressure of soda ash in the long - run remains high. Although the export in August was better than expected, the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [63]. - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price, while the supply in the fourth quarter may have unexpected reductions [90]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3185 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3380 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts remained relatively stable compared to September 19 [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on September 22 was 3323 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 95 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 50 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of 01 rebar/01 iron ore and 01 rebar/01 coke were both stable at 4 and 2 respectively from September 19 to September 22 [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the 01 iron ore contract was 808.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan. The basis of the 01 contract was - 8.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of September 19, the daily average hot - metal output was 241.02 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13801.08 tons, and the global shipping volume was 3324.8 tons [28]. Coal and Coke - **Market Outlook**: Downstream restocking has improved the inventory structure of coking coal, and the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented. However, the high supply pressure of steel will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [35]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1144 yuan/ton, and the coking coal main - contract basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was - 74.0 yuan/ton [39]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, which is beneficial for short - term price increases. The long - term trading logic is based on the anti - involution expectation, and the downward space is limited [51]. - **Data for Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: For ferrosilicon on September 22, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 36 yuan, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5480 yuan/ton. For ferromanganese on September 19, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 116 yuan, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5730 yuan/ton [51][55]. Soda Ash - **Market Outlook**: The long - term supply of soda ash remains high. Although the export in August was better than expected, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [63]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1384 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 23 yuan and a daily decline rate of 1.63% [64]. Glass - **Market Outlook**: Glass prices lack a clear trend. The high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price, while the supply in the fourth quarter may have unexpected reductions [90]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1329 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 14 yuan and a daily decline rate of 1.04% [91].

Report Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures oscillated strongly around 4,400 ringgit, supported by a 8%+ increase in export data in the first 20 days and a decline in production in the same period. There is an expectation of an upward trend after effectively reaching and stabilizing above 4,500 ringgit [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures rebounded. Short - term, it may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil and break through the 9,500 yuan mark. After Malaysian palm oil rises above 4,500 ringgit, Dalian palm oil futures may also rise, but beware of unexpected declines before the National Day holiday [3]. Soybean Oil - International situation and domestic factors: Tensions in Europe and the Middle East led to a rise in international crude oil, boosting the vegetable oil market. Domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient with good consumption. There are also news of soybean oil exports. However, due to the approaching holidays, capital withdrawal, and the concentrated listing of US soybeans, the increase of Dalian soybean oil is limited, and a decline at the end of the month is possible [4]. Bean Meal - Futures: Affected by uncertain Sino - US tariff prospects, a slight increase in South American premiums, and expected end - of - month restocking, institutional short positions were reduced, and Dalian bean meal rebounded weakly. Short - term resistance is in the 3,050 - 3,080 yuan range [17]. - Spot: Oil mills raised prices by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Supply is temporarily abundant during the National Day, but due to transportation vehicle shortages and some traders' restocking, the market slightly improved, with prices oscillating between 2,950 - 3,200 yuan/ton [17]. Data Summaries Oil Price Spreads - Palm oil: P 1 - 5 was 202 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan increase; P 5 - 9 was 322 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan decrease; P 9 - 1 was - 524 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan decrease [5]. - Soybean oil: Y 1 - 5 was 276 yuan/ton with no change; Y 5 - 9 was 62 yuan/ton with no change; Y 9 - 1 was - 338 yuan/ton with no change [5]. - Others: Y - P 01 was - 988 yuan/ton with a 32 - yuan increase; Y/M 01 was 2.7631 with no change; OI 1 - 5 was 500 yuan/ton with an 11 - yuan increase; OI/RM 01 was 3.9921 with a 1.24% decrease [5]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Futures: Palm oil 01 was 9,360 yuan/ton with a 0.47% increase; Palm oil 05 was 9,154 yuan/ton with a 0.44% increase; Palm oil 09 was 8,802 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase [8]. - Spot: BMD palm oil main contract was 4,464 ringgit/ton with a 0.88% increase; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil was 9,260 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase; Guangzhou 24 - degree basis was - 66 yuan/ton with a 28 - yuan increase [8]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Futures: Soybean oil 01 was 8,366 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase; Soybean oil 05 was 8,078 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease; Soybean oil 09 was 8,034 yuan/ton with a 0.28% decrease [13]. - Spot: Shandong first - grade soybean oil was 8,470 yuan/ton with no change; Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis was 142 yuan/ton with a 36 - yuan increase [13]. Oilseed Futures Prices - Bean meal: Bean meal 01 closed at 3,034 with a 20 - point increase and a 0.66% rise; Bean meal 05 was 2,782 with a 4 - point decrease and a 0.14% decline; Bean meal 09 was 2,891 with an 8 - point decrease and a 0.28% decline [18]. - Rapeseed meal: Rapeseed meal 01 was 2,528 with a 6 - point increase and a 0.24% rise; Rapeseed meal 05 was 2,373 with a 14 - point decrease and a 0.59% decline; Rapeseed meal 09 was 2,447 with a 7 - point decrease and a 0.29% decline [18]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Bean meal: M01 - 05 was 228 with no change; M05 - 09 was - 113 with a 4 - point increase; M09 - 01 was - 115 with a 4 - point decrease [19][21]. - Rapeseed meal: RM01 - 05 was 135 with a 22 - point increase; RM05 - 09 was - 67 with an 11 - point increase; RM09 - 01 was - 68 with a 33 - point decrease [19][21]. - Spot: The spot price difference between bean and rapeseed meal was 450 with a 5 - point decrease; the futures price difference was 492 with no change [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and sent a dovish signal. Economic recession risks have boosted safe - haven demand, and long - term factors such as central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization support gold prices [3]. - **Copper**: In the next week, copper may continue to fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton. Supply is tight in the short term, and demand remains stable [18]. - **Aluminum**: After the September interest rate cut, the macro - drive has paused. The Shanghai aluminum market may focus on fundamentals, and the price may fluctuate strongly. Alumina may be weak in the short term due to supply surplus, and cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The supply is in an excess state, and the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average. Zinc prices may fluctuate in the short term [68]. - **Nickel Industry Chain**: Nickel ore prices are affected by nickel price movements and supply concerns. The new energy sector provides some support, nickel iron prices are firm, and stainless steel has limited downside space [83]. - **Tin**: The decline in tin prices last week was due to Powell's hawkish speech. The short - term supply is tight, and prices may fluctuate around 274,000 yuan per ton [98]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate. Downstream demand may support prices in the future [109]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the increase is limited by inventory. The trading of polysilicon futures is complex, and the risk is relatively high [118]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Fed's interest rate cut, economic data, central bank gold purchases, and de - dollarization affect gold prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, gold - silver ratio, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, and gold and US dollar index [4][8][15]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: May fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton in the next week [18]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is tight as the Indonesian Grasberg copper mine needs 1 - 2 weeks to resume production, and demand remains stable [18]. - **Market Data**: Provide copper futures and spot prices, import and export data, and inventory data [19][24][34]. Aluminum - **Aluminum Price Analysis**: Interest rate cut expectations and fundamentals affect prices. After the interest rate cut, the focus is on inventory, and prices may fluctuate strongly [37]. - **Alumina Situation**: Supply surplus leads to a weak price outlook in the short term [38]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Rises due to tight scrap aluminum supply and may fluctuate strongly [38]. - **Market Data**: Include aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data [39][54][64]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is in excess, and the market's expectation for the peak season is average. LME inventory is decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [68]. - **Market Data**: Provide zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data [69][74][79]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Nickel Ore**: The benchmark price has increased, and supply concerns exist due to government intervention in Indonesia [83]. - **New Energy**: Supports nickel - related product prices [83]. - **Nickel Iron**: Prices are firm, but high - price transactions have declined [83]. - **Stainless Steel**: Has limited downside space due to cost support and de - stocking [83]. - **Market Data**: Include nickel and stainless steel futures prices, trading volume, and inventory data [84]. Tin - **Price Analysis**: The decline last week was due to Powell's hawkish speech. Supply is tight in the short term, and prices may fluctuate around 274,000 yuan per ton [98]. - **Market Data**: Provide tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and related indexes [99][103][105]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: May fluctuate before the National Day holiday, and downstream demand may support prices [109]. - **Market Data**: Include lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, inventory data [110][112][116]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices may rise slightly with the dry season but are limited by inventory [118]. - **Polysilicon**: The trading focus is on the establishment of the September procurement platform and the November warehouse receipt cancellation. The risk is relatively high [118]. - **Market Data**: Provide industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, production, and inventory data [119][120][141].

Core View - The Fed cut interest rates in September, and the expectation of further rate cuts within the year has increased (83% probability in October), which improves liquidity and boosts the financial attributes of copper [4]. - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has been shut down due to an accident, and domestic smelters are undergoing intensive maintenance, exacerbating the tight spot market [4]. - After the copper price exceeded 80,000 yuan, the downstream replenishment willingness was weak. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production was only 67.63%, and traditional sectors such as real estate and home appliances had low acceptance of high prices [4]. - COMEX copper inventories increased by 4.5% week - on - week to 309,200 tons, and domestic visible inventories also increased, reflecting pressure on terminal consumption [4]. - After the Fed's rate cut, there is a lack of new drivers. The fundamental situation is a combination of "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Main Contract is 79,910 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.42%, a position of 116,552 lots, a weekly decrease of 70,324 lots, and a trading volume of 48,845 lots [6]. - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Index Weighted is 79,871 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.47%, a position of 487,984 lots, a weekly decrease of 6,933 lots, and a trading volume of 229,825 lots [6]. - The latest price of International Copper is 70,810 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.69%, a position of 4,498 lots, a weekly decrease of 349 lots, and a trading volume of 3,266 lots [6]. - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is 9,946 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.1%, a position of 239,014 lots, a weekly decrease of 38,282 lots, and a trading volume of 14,733 lots [6]. - The latest price of COMEX Copper is 460 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.52%, a position of 123,532 lots, a weekly increase of 8,063 lots, and a trading volume of 22,972 lots [6]. Copper Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper is 79,990 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 765 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.95% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 79,970 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,020 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.26% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 80,030 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 900 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.11% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 80,110 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 970 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.2% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 15 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 17.65% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is 50 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 10 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 25% [11]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is 40 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 30 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 42.86% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium/discount is 125 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 35 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 38.89% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is - 71.09 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 9.55 US dollars and a weekly decline rate of 15.52% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is - 160.28 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 11.04 US dollars and a weekly decline rate of 6.44% [11]. Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 21.58 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 259.6 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 92.33% [12]. - The latest copper concentrate TC is - 41.4 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.9 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 2.22% [12]. - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 3.8325, with a weekly decline of 0.0006 and a weekly decline rate of 0.02% [12]. - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 1,642.13 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 178.61 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 9.81% [12]. Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 31,838 tons, with a weekly increase of 6,278 tons and a weekly increase rate of 24.56% [18]. - The total International Copper warehouse receipts are 6,495 tons, with a weekly decline of 978 tons and a weekly decline rate of 13.09% [18]. - Shanghai Copper inventories are 105,814 tons, with a weekly increase of 11,760 tons and a weekly increase rate of 12.5% [18]. - LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 135,425 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,100 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.58% [18]. - LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 13,450 tons, with a weekly decline of 7,400 tons and a weekly decline rate of 35.49% [20]. - LME Copper inventories are 148,875 tons, with a weekly decline of 5,300 tons and a weekly decline rate of 3.44% [20]. - COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 149,509 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,920 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.3% [20]. - COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 165,697 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,452 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.13% [20]. - COMEX Copper inventories are 315,206 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,372 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.73% [20]. - Copper mine port inventories are 574,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 14,000 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.5% [20]. - Social inventories are 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [20]. Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In July 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. The cumulative output was 9.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [23]. - In July 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The cumulative output was 16.598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [23]. Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In August 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rod was 15.84 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.11% [25]. - In August 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rod was 8.19 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 24.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.21% [25]. - In August 2025, the total annual capacity of copper plate and strip was 3.59 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 64.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.98% [25]. - In August 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rods was 2.2865 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 49.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.88% [25]. - In August 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tubes was 2.783 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 62.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.33%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.21% [25]. Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrates was 2.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import volume was 20.077445 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [29]. - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 84,217 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%. The cumulative import volume was 466,925 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12% [29]. - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 296,896 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. The cumulative import volume was 1,943,043 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6% [29]. - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 190,078 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The cumulative import volume was 1,335,483 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1% [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative import volume was 3,540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% [29].