Report Summary Core View - There are both positive and negative factors in the bond market. Geopolitical risks and the escalation of the Sino-US trade war support the bond market, while the accelerated bond supply and the weak performance of long-term interest rate bonds pose challenges. Traders can focus on short-term trading opportunities for rebounds while controlling risks [2] Factors Analysis Positive Factors - High geopolitical risks increase market risk aversion, supporting the bond market [2] - The escalation of the Sino-US trade war drives down the spot bond interest rate, which is beneficial to futures prices [2] Negative Factors - The accelerated bond supply may put pressure on market liquidity [2] - Long-term interest rate bonds are relatively weak, with the 30-year Treasury bond futures falling [2] Data Analysis - **Yield to Maturity**: The report presents the yield to maturity data of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds from 2024/04 to 2025/08 [3] - **Funding Rate**: It shows the funding rate data including the weighted average rate of pledged repo by deposit-taking institutions for 1-day and 7-day, and the 7-day reverse repo rate from 2023/12 to 2025/06 [3] - **Term Spread**: The term spreads of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bonds are presented from 2024/04 to 2025/08 [4][5] - **Futures Position and Trading Volume**: The position data of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 and the trading volume data from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are shown [7][8] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis data of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures for the current quarter, as well as the inter - quarterly spreads of these futures and the cross - variety spreads of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL are provided [9][11][12][16][17][18][19][20]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: October 24, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - **Positive Factors**: Macro interest rate cut expectations have a positive supporting effect on market sentiment, and there are signs of marginal improvement in demand on the demand side, such as the demand for sulfate [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Refined nickel inventories continue to increase, resulting in significant supply pressure, and the inventories in the stainless steel industry chain are rising while terminal demand is relatively sluggish [3]. - **Trading Advisory Viewpoint**: The market as a whole tends to operate in a wide - range oscillation [3]. Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - **Prices**: The latest value of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 121,380 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 670 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.56%. The LME nickel 3M is 15,335 dollars/ton, with a change of 228 dollars and a rate of - 0.16% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 93,921 lots, with a weekly increase of 25,077 lots and a weekly increase rate of 36.43%. The open interest is 127,005 lots, with a weekly increase of 68,347 lots and a weekly increase rate of 116.5% [4]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 26,881 tons, with a weekly decrease of 161 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 0.60% [4]. Stainless Steel Futures - **Prices**: The latest value of the main contract of stainless steel is 12,765 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 170 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1%. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 151,385 lots, with a weekly increase of 26,605 lots and a weekly increase rate of 21.32%. The open interest is 166,411 lots, with a weekly decrease of 31,783 lots and a weekly decrease rate of - 16.04% [5]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 74,376 tons, with a weekly decrease of 8,372 tons and a weekly decrease rate of - 10.12% [5]. Spot Prices of Nickel - The latest price of Jinchuan Nickel is 123,350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 400 yuan and a decrease rate of - 0.32%. The price of imported nickel is 121,250 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 450 yuan and a decrease rate of - 0.37% [5]. Inventory Data - **Nickel Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 47,708 tons, with no change. The LME nickel inventory is 250,854 tons, with a decrease of 24 tons [7]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: The stainless steel social inventory is 952.6 thousand tons, with an increase of 47 thousand tons [7]. - **Nickel Pig Iron Inventory**: The nickel pig iron inventory is 29,062 tons, with a decrease of 174 tons [7]. Industry Chain Data Upstream Nickel Ore - **Nickel Ore Price**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 1.5% (FOB) is presented in the report, showing historical price trends [15]. - **Nickel Ore Inventory**: The inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports shows seasonal changes [15]. Nickel Iron - **Nickel Iron Price**: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China and the average price of Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival port, tax - included) are presented [16]. - **Nickel Iron Production**: The monthly production of nickel iron in China and Indonesia shows seasonal characteristics [17][18]. Downstream Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel Price**: The average price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel is presented, showing price trends from February 2024 to August 2025 [20]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel Premium**: The premium of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel over primary nickel (plate) is shown [22]. - **Profit Margins**: The profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from nickel beans and producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased sulfuric acid nickel show seasonal changes [23]. - **Production Volume**: The monthly production volume of sulfuric acid nickel in China shows historical data [24]. Stainless Steel - **Profit Margin**: The profit margin of Chinese 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils shows seasonal characteristics [26]. - **Production Volume**: The monthly production volume of stainless steel shows seasonal changes [28]. - **Inventory**: The stainless steel inventory shows seasonal changes [29].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The market is focusing on the Fourth Plenary Session. Steel prices may rebound slightly, but the weak fundamentals limit the rebound height, with a higher possibility of subsequent decline. Short - term is volatile and strong, while medium - to - long - term is weak [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term steel seasonal de - stocking is slow, and high inventory levels remain. Coking coal price increases pressure steel mill profits. Iron ore shipments are high, inventory is accumulating seasonally, and iron water is likely to peak. Short - term macro sentiment supports price rebound, but fundamentals limit the upside [22]. - **Coal and Coke**: Downstream coking plants and steel mills are restocking, and coking coal inventory structure has improved. Coking profits are severely damaged, and a second price increase for coke may occur next week. Steel demand is weakening, and potential negative feedback restricts the short - term rebound of coal and coke prices. If coking coal supply tightens in the fourth quarter and winter storage demand is released in mid - to - late November, the overall black industry valuation may rise [32]. - **Ferroalloys**: Sino - US frictions and weak steel fundamentals add pressure. Ferroalloy downstream demand is weak, and inventory is high. Without unexpected stimulus policies from the Fourth Plenary Session, ferroalloy prices will remain under pressure [50]. - **Soda Ash**: Market sentiment is volatile, and long - term supply pressure persists. Alkali plants are starting to accumulate inventory. Although exports in September exceeded 180,000 tons, upper - and middle - stream high inventory restricts prices, but cost provides support [63]. - **Glass**: Overall glass production and sales are poor, and upstream inventory accumulation exceeds expectations. Some production lines still have ignition intentions, and daily melting may continue to rise slightly. High inventory and weak demand suppress prices [90]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3046, 3109, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively; hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3250, 3265, and 3283 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spreads**: Rebar 01 - 05 month - spread was - 63 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - spread was - 15 yuan/ton on October 24, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 771, 750.5, and 730 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - 05 month - spread was 20.5 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: Daily average iron water production was 239.9 tons, 45 - port inventory was 14423.59 tons, and global shipments were 3333.5 tons on October 24, 2025 [27]. Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was 134.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 month - spread was 204 yuan/ton [37]. - **Spreads**: The coking coal main contract basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was - 21 yuan/ton, and the coke main contract basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 130.8 yuan/ton on October 24, 2025 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On October 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 month - spread was - 70 yuan/ton [51]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On October 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 258 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 month - spread was - 42 yuan/ton [54]. Soda Ash - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1379, and 1229 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month - spread was - 60 yuan/ton [64]. - **Spreads**: The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was - 50 yuan/ton on October 24, 2025 [64]. Glass - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1236, 1327, and 1092 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month - spread was - 91 yuan/ton [91]. - **Sales**: From October 15 - 21, 2025, the Shahe glass production and sales rate ranged from 40% to 112% [92].

观点：在贸易战重启背景下经济衰退问题制约金银饰品 消费需求；贵金属的需求在于去美元背景下的主权基金选择；在美国重启降息 之际，美元中期贬值因素和近端收益率曲线下沉对贵金属形成支撑；跟踪到国内黄金仓单有相对显著的上升；国内外白银仓单骤降。 基本面： 1、"停摆"持续，美参议院第12次否决临时拨款法案。市场消息：美国众议院将休会。2、俄乌局势——①欧盟批准了第19轮对俄的制 裁措施，其中包括液化天然气进口禁令。②贝森特称将"大幅加码"对俄制裁，随后美国财政部宣布制裁两大俄油公司。3、日本最大的 工会组织表示，将在2026年寻求5%或以上的加薪。4、关税——①消息称印度与美国即将达成贸易协议，降低对印度关税至15%-16%。② 特朗普政府准备展开药品调查，为新关税铺路。 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完 整性不做任何保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的 观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的 买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 研究员：许 亮 期货从业：F0260140 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0002 ...

Group 1: Core Views - Overseas copper mine disturbances intensify, and domestic smelters cut production due to raw material shortages, increasing the expectation of supply tightness [4] - New copper demand from new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI servers is significant. Coupled with power grid investment and automobile market policy stimulus, consumption potential supports copper prices [4] - Domestic social inventories are increasing, and LME and COMEX inventories are also at annual highs, suppressing the upward space for prices [4] - The continuous strengthening of copper prices has led to an increase in the fear of high prices among downstream users. Spot transactions are mainly for rigid demand, and the procurement and sales sentiment index is low [4] - In the short term, copper prices will remain oscillating and slightly strong. The main reasons are that the supply disturbances at the mine end remain unsolved, and the demand increment is clear, but inventory pressure and macro uncertainties limit the increase [5] Group 2: Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Main Contract is 87,720 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.95%. The position is 275,672 lots, with a weekly increase of 60,099 lots, and the trading volume is 174,100 lots [6] - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Index Weighted is 87,686 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.97%. The position is 544,945 lots, with a weekly decrease of 1,295 lots, and the trading volume is 192,281 lots [6] - The latest price of International Copper is 76,660 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.25%. The position is 4,541 lots, with a weekly increase of 43 lots, and the trading volume is 8,629 lots [6] - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is 10,817 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.82%. The position is 239,014 lots, with a weekly decrease of 38,282 lots, and the trading volume is 24,037 lots [6] - The latest price of COMEX Copper is 508.55 US dollars/pound, with a weekly increase of 2.05%. The position is 133,167 lots, with a weekly decrease of 1,937 lots, and the trading volume is 45,662 lots [6] Group 3: Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 86,420 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,645 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.94% [10] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 86,370 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,535 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.81% [10] - The latest price of Guangdong Nanchu is 86,420 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,510 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.78% [11] - The latest price of Yangtze Non - ferrous is 86,510 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,570 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.85% [11] - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is 10 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 45 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 81.82% [11] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is - 20 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 65 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 144.44% [11] - The latest price of Guangdong Nanchu premium/discount is 0 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 55 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 100% [11] - The latest price of Yangtze Non - ferrous premium/discount is 50 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 65 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 56.52% [11] - The latest price of LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is - 11.55 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.39 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 3.49% [11] - The latest price of LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is 111.99 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 15.76 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 12.34% [11] Group 4: Advanced Copper Data (Weekly) - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 890.28 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 231.8 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 20.66% [12] - The latest copper concentrate TC is - 42.2 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.5 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 3.69% [12] - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 4.0724, with a weekly increase of 0.0176 and a weekly increase rate of 0.43% [12] - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,365.96 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 370 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 12.35% [12] Group 5: Copper Inventory Data (Weekly) - The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 35,071 tons, with a weekly decrease of 7,778 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 18.15% [17] - The total International Copper warehouse receipts are 12,890 tons, with a weekly decrease of 1,628 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 11.21% [17] - The Shanghai Copper inventory is 104,792 tons, with a weekly decrease of 5,448 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 4.94% [17] - The LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 126,150 tons, with a weekly decrease of 3,750 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 2.89% [17] - The LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 10,775 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,225 tons and a weekly increase rate of 42.72% [20] - The LME Copper inventory is 136,925 tons, with a weekly decrease of 525 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 0.38% [20] - The COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 150,958 tons, with a weekly decrease of 2,646 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 1.72% [20] - The COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 196,540 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,492 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.87% [20] - The COMEX Copper inventory is 347,498 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,846 tons and a weekly increase rate of 0.83% [20] - The copper mine port inventory is 46.8 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 4.1 million tons and a weekly decrease rate of 8.06% [20] - The social inventory is 41.82 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [20] Group 6: Copper Mid - stream Production Data (Monthly) - In August 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.301 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. The cumulative production was 11.125 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10% [23] - In August 2025, the monthly copper product production was 2.222 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. The cumulative production was 18.575 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.6% [23] Group 7: Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization Data (Monthly) - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rod was 15.84 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.23%, with a monthly increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85% [25] - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rod was 8.19 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 25.37%, with a monthly increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.53% [25] - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of copper plate and strip was 3.59 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 66.24%, with a monthly increase of 1.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95% [25] - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rod was 2.2865 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 50.9%, with a monthly increase of 1.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.52% [25] - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tube was 2.783 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 59.44%, with a monthly decrease of 3.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.58% [25] Group 8: Copper Element Import Data (Monthly) - In September 2025, the monthly import of copper concentrate was 2.59 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import was 22.66674 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% [29] - In September 2025, the monthly import of anode copper was 50,135 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 33%. The cumulative import was 578,772 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15% [29] - In September 2025, the monthly import of cathode copper was 331,885 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3%. The cumulative import was 2,537,977 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4% [29] - In September 2025, the monthly import of scrap copper was 184,080 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15%. The cumulative import was 1,698,922 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2% [29] - In September 2025, the monthly import of copper products was 490,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The cumulative import was 4,020,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [29]

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Report Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures trended weakly due to concerns about potential export growth slowdown and significant production increase. The price may test the support of the 60 - day moving average at 4400 ringgit. With a bearish fundamental outlook and expected substantial month - end inventory growth, there's a risk of breaking below the 60 - day moving average. However, as production enters the decline season in November and the market speculates on Indonesia's B50 policy, the price may stabilize and recover [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures maintained a weak and volatile trend, dragged down by rising port inventories and the decline of Malaysian palm oil. The price may seek support at the 9000 - yuan mark, with strong support at the annual line of 8900 yuan. After this round of adjustment, it may slowly recover following Malaysian palm oil. The view is that the near - term contracts are weaker than the far - term ones, and attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling in the 8900 - 9000 yuan range [3]. Soybean Oil - The market is currently focused on the results of the China - US negotiations. Domestically, demand is weak, and traders are reluctant to purchase due to concerns about price drops. Although soybean import costs support the market, there are also bearish factors. In the short term, the Dalian soybean oil January contract will fluctuate around 8200 yuan. If CBOT soybeans and soybean oil rise again, it may increase slightly; otherwise, it may fall to 8000 - 8100 yuan [4]. Bean Meal - Spot prices of bean meal increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and near - month basis decreased by 10 - 20 yuan. Some oil mills in North and South China suspended production due to delayed soybean arrivals, and cost inversion boosted the price - holding attitude. However, due to the unclear outcome of China - US trade negotiations, feed enterprises are digesting existing inventories, and traders' enthusiasm for chasing prices is limited [17]. Price Information Oil Price | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 24 | - 2 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 220 | 8 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 244 | - 6 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 166 | - 4 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 92 | - 6 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 258 | 10 | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 389 | 3 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 71 | 13 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 460 | - 16 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 944 | - 18 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 1086 | - 16 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 958 | - 2 | | Y/M 01 | / | 2.7869 | - 2.4% | | Y/M 05 | / | 2.896 | - 1.54% | | Y/M 09 | / | 2.7487 | - 1.33% | | OI/RM 01 | / | 4.1714 | - 2.14% | | OI/RM 05 | / | 4.0519 | - 1.4% | | OI/RM 09 | / | 3.8529 | - 1.93% | [5] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Price | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 9122 | - 0.11% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 9104 | - 0.04% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8858 | - 0.34% | | BMD Palm Oil Main Contract | ringgit/ton | 4442 | - 0.65% | | 24 - degree Palm Oil in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | 9050 | 50 | | 24 - degree Basis in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | - 132 | - 108 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 461.996 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | - 3.86 | - 5 | [8] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Price | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8194 | - 0.17% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8016 | - 0.07% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7906 | - 0.17% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | cents/pound | 50.86 | 1.68% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8350 | 0 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 162 | - 20 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 46.382 | - 11.2948 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 500 | 110 | [14] Oilseed Futures Price | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 2933 | - 5 | - 0.17% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2768 | - 2 | - 0.07% | | Bean Meal 09 | 2880 | - 5 | - 0.17% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2325 | - 14 | - 0.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2300 | - 12 | - 0.52% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2401 | - 12 | - 0.5% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1061.25 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.125 | - 0.0019 | - 0.03% | [18] Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spread | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 168 | 26 | RM01 - 05 | 27 | 19 | | M05 - 09 | - 115 | 3 | RM05 - 09 | - 101 | - 10 | | M09 - 01 | - 53 | - 29 | RM09 - 01 | 74 | - 9 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 40 | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | 42 | - 33 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2450 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 111 | - 32 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 530 | 20 | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 599 | 21 | [19][21]

Report Information - Report Title: Soft Commodity Daily - Date: October 24, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are pressured by the expectation of global supply surplus, while domestic sugar has limited downside space due to cost support but weak demand [3]. - The decline of cotton prices has slowed down, but it still faces hedging pressure due to the expected increase in supply [14]. - Apple prices may remain strong in the long - term, but the main contract's performance is weaker than that of the far - month contracts [19]. - New - season jujubes may face downward pressure due to high inventory of old jujubes [27]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices are under pressure from the expected supply surplus, with ICE raw sugar slightly rising to 15.24 cents/pound but constrained by Brazil's high production. Domestic sugar has limited downside due to cost support, but terminal procurement is cautious [3]. - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Provided detailed closing prices, daily and weekly price changes of various sugar futures contracts and spreads [4]. - **Basis**: Presented the basis data of sugar in Nanning and Kunming against different futures contracts and their daily and weekly changes [9]. - **Import Prices**: Showed the quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their daily and weekly changes, as well as the price differences between domestic locations and imported sugar [12]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: New cotton purchase prices are relatively firm, the decline of cotton prices has slowed down, but downstream demand is weakening, and new cotton supply pressure will gradually emerge [14]. - **Futures Prices**: Gave the closing prices, daily price changes and price change rates of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts [15]. - **Spreads**: Provided the price differences and daily price changes of cotton basis, cotton futures month - spreads, flower - yarn spread, and internal - external cotton and yarn spreads [16]. Apple - **Fundamentals**: Late - Fuji apples in the northwest and Shandong are in the coloring and partial listing stage. Continuous rain has delayed the supply, and the effective inventory in most areas is lower than last year. Long - term prices may remain strong [19]. - **Price Changes**: Presented the closing prices, daily and weekly price change rates of apple futures contracts, spot prices of different apple varieties, and related data such as basis, theoretical delivery price and profit [20]. Jujube - **Fundamentals**: New - season jujubes are about to be harvested. With high inventory of old jujubes, jujube prices may face downward pressure [27]. - **Futures Month - Spreads**: Mentioned the futures month - spreads of jujubes (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [29][30][34]. - **Prices and Inventory**: Included the price trends of Xinjiang jujube production areas and main sales areas, and the total of jujube warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [33][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and related products: The USDA report this month is neutral to bearish overall, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory and a decrease in global production. China's imports from October to November exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure persists. After December, China may turn to buying US soybeans, depending on the China - US negotiation progress. The short - term domestic spot market is in a low - level oscillation, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season with large inventory pressure [5]. - For rapeseed and related products: The domestic supply - demand situation has little change, and attention should be paid to the new rapeseed harvest in Canada. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decrease in imports, but there is uncertainty. The domestic demand has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, especially the weakening of aquatic product demand. If there is a negotiation with the US, it may ease the China - Canada relationship and relax rapeseed imports [5]. - For oils: - **Soybean oil**: In the short term, the soybean oil inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month due to the slowdown of soybean crushing but remains at a high level. The Indonesian B50 plan may fall short of expectations, weakening the biodiesel concept and being unfavorable to oils. Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase China's direct imports of soybean oil. The market generally shows a slightly oversupplied pattern with high inventory pressure [36]. - **Palm oil**: The MPOB report this month shows that the inventory has accumulated more than expected, and the report is neutral to bearish. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel plan may not be realized, weakening the biodiesel theme. The domestic inventory is still in a relatively high accumulation stage. The market trend is oscillatory due to the conflict between the weakening of biodiesel and the seasonal production decline of palm oil [37]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The domestic market is in a slow de - stocking cycle. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in rapeseed oil supply. Attention should be paid to the changes in imports from Russia and the impact of possible trade negotiations at the end of the month on future rapeseed oil purchases. The short - term trend is weak, but there is support in the medium term due to reduced imports [38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean and Related Products - **Market fundamentals**: The USDA report adjusted US soybean production, global production, and US soybean inventory. China's imports from Brazil and Argentina in October - November exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure continues. After December, the supply from South America may decrease, and China may turn to US soybeans depending on negotiations [5]. - **Price and spread**: There are various price and spread data such as the closing prices of domestic and foreign soybean futures, soybean meal futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01), and the price ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal for different contracts (01, 05, 09) [4][27][60]. - **Inventory and consumption**: Data on soybean crushing volume, soybean inventory in crushing plants, soybean meal inventory, and consumption in China are presented, showing the current supply - demand situation [16][18]. Rapeseed and Related Products - **Market fundamentals**: The domestic supply - demand situation is relatively stable, but attention should be paid to the new rapeseed harvest in Canada. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed and possible trade negotiations may affect imports [5]. - **Price and spread**: There are data on rapeseed meal futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01), rapeseed meal spot basis, and the price ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal for different contracts (01, 05, 09) [26][29][63]. - **Inventory and consumption**: Data on rapeseed expected arrival volume, rapeseed inventory in crushing plants, rapeseed meal inventory, and consumption are provided [21][24]. Oils - **Soybean oil**: The short - term inventory change is affected by soybean crushing, and factors such as the Indonesian B50 plan and Argentina's exports impact the market. There are data on soybean oil production, consumption, inventory, and price spreads [36][40][67]. - **Palm oil**: The MPOB report shows inventory changes, and the Indonesian B50 plan and seasonal production decline affect the market trend. Data on palm oil production, consumption, inventory, and price spreads in Malaysia and Indonesia are presented [37][50][64]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The domestic market is in a de - stocking cycle, and anti - dumping measures and trade negotiations affect supply. There are data on rapeseed oil supply, consumption, inventory, and price spreads [38][42][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Market focuses on US September CPI data for Fed's interest - rate cut path, with long - term support from central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and weakened dollar credit, but short - term fluctuations due to geopolitical ease and technical selling pressure [3] - Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan" strengthen demand expectations for copper, with a bullish outlook on copper prices [17] - China's core CPI rise in September and expected Fed rate cut are positive for aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [38] - Zinc's supply - demand situation shows domestic stable supply and overseas production cuts, with low inventory supporting prices [61] - Nickel ore regulations in Indonesia are stricter. The new energy sector is in a peak season, nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless steel may fluctuate widely [76] - Tin supply is weaker than demand, and SHFE tin is expected to remain strong in the short term [90] - Good market demand for lithium carbonate and continuous warehouse destocking are expected to support futures prices [103] - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly with coming dry seasons, while the polysilicon market is bearish [115] Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Fundamentals**: Market focuses on US September CPI data for Fed's interest - rate cut path. Long - term supports include central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and weakened dollar credit, but short - term fluctuations are caused by geopolitical ease and technical selling pressure. Tensions between Russia and the US add to market uncertainty [3] Copper - **Policy Impact**: Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan" strengthen demand expectations for copper, and policies are bullish on copper prices [17] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE copper contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations, with the highest daily increase of 1.92% for the main and continuous - one contracts [18] - **Spot Data**: Spot copper prices in different regions have daily increases ranging from 1.09% to 1.17%, and there are changes in spot premiums and discounts [24] Aluminum - **Macro and Fundamentals**: China's core CPI rise in September and expected Fed rate cut are positive for aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support. Short - term SHFE aluminum may fluctuate at a high level [38] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [39] - **Spot Data**: Spot aluminum prices in different regions and relevant premiums and discounts have daily changes, and LME aluminum spot price and premiums also change [49] Zinc - **Supply - Demand and Price**: Domestic zinc supply is stable, overseas production is cut, and low inventory supports prices. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets is large, and short - term attention should be paid to export windows and macro - driving factors [61] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE and LME zinc contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [62] - **Spot Data**: SMM zinc average prices increase by 0.41%, and there are changes in LME zinc premiums [69] Nickel - **Industry Conditions**: Indonesia's nickel ore regulations are stricter. The new energy sector is in a peak season, nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless steel may fluctuate widely. WTO rulings and BIS certifications are positive for stainless steel exports [76] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE and LME nickel contracts show different changes, along with changes in trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts [77] Tin - **Supply - Demand**: Tin supply is weaker than demand, and SHFE tin is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a predicted support level of 276,000 yuan [90] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE and LME tin contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [91] - **Spot Data**: Spot tin prices in different categories have daily increases ranging from 0.35% to 0.83% [93] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Good market demand and continuous warehouse destocking are expected to support futures prices [103] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts show different daily and weekly changes, and there are changes in price spreads between contracts [104] - **Spot Data**: Prices of various lithium products show daily and weekly changes, and there are changes in price spreads between different lithium products [108] Silicon - **Industry Conditions**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly with coming dry seasons, while the polysilicon market is bearish [115] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of industrial silicon futures contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations, and there are changes in price spreads between contracts [115] - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and grades are stable, with changes in basis and price spreads [115]