黑色产业链日报 2026/02/03 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

铝产业周报 2026/02/02 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：陈乃轩 Z0023138 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The demand for precious metals lies in the choice of sovereign funds in the context of de - dollarization. The trends of de - dollarization and reserve diversification continue. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. There has been a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts and a relatively significant decrease in US gold warehouse receipts. Domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have dropped sharply [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold AU and Silver AG Viewpoints - The demand for precious metals is due to sovereign funds' choices in the de - dollarization context. De - dollarization and reserve diversification trends are ongoing. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. Domestic gold warehouse receipts have risen notably while US gold warehouse receipts have fallen notably, and domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have plunged [2][3] Fundamentals - The US released a defense strategy report, prioritizing homeland security and its interests in the Western Hemisphere. The US military convened generals from 34 Western Hemisphere countries to strengthen anti - drug military cooperation. Trump said that Iran is having "serious" talks with the US and hopes to reach an acceptable agreement. US media reported that the US is signaling negotiations with Iran, and the two sides may meet in Turkey. The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes in its January meeting, keeping the interest rate in the 3.5 - 3.75% range. Milan and Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell reiterated that the interest rate is at the upper end of the neutral range and said that if tariff - related inflation peaks and then falls, it indicates that policy can be loosened. Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman, expecting him to push for rate cuts. The White House is confident that Warsh's nomination will be quickly confirmed [2][3] Gold and Silver Market Overview - One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - The US Treasury took initial steps to intervene in the foreign exchange market. The US released a defense strategy report and strengthened anti - drug military cooperation in the Western Hemisphere. The US is pressuring Bolivia to expel suspected Iranian spies and discussing similar actions in other countries. The Trump administration is considering a naval blockade on Cuba's oil imports. Trump said the US obtained oil from a seized Venezuelan oil tanker. The Japanese yen suddenly rose nearly 200 points, and Japanese officials are closely monitoring the foreign exchange market. Trump increased the reciprocal tariff rate on South Korea from 15% to 25%. The EU will fully ban the import of Russian liquefied natural gas in January 2027 and Russian pipeline gas by the end of September. The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes, and some officials supported rate cuts. South Korea is expected to discuss a $350 billion investment program with the US. Trump will announce the Fed chairman nominee and called for a 2 - 3 percentage - point rate cut. Trump said Putin agreed to a one - week ceasefire in parts of Ukraine. Iran will conduct live - fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. The EU listed the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a "terrorist organization". The US Treasury did not list any economy as a currency manipulator. The World Gold Council said that central banks' net gold purchases in Q4 were 230 tons, and strong gold demand in 2026 is expected to continue. OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The US government entered a partial "shutdown" state, but the House Speaker is confident to end it. SpaceX applied to deploy one million satellites to build an orbital AI data center network [7] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Gold Market Tracking - **COMEX Futures and Options**: The latest long - position of managed funds is 122,450, and the short - position is 35,978. The 5 - day change in the long - position is - 4%, and in the short - position is - 1%. The 1 - week change in the long - position is - 5,556, and in the short - position is 2,599 [8] - **ETF Holdings**: The latest total ETF holding of gold is 1,447 tons, with SPDR's holding at 862 tons and iShares' at 402 tons. The 5 - day changes are - 2% and - 4% respectively [8] - **Futures Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The latest futures position of gold in Shanghai is 407,927 hands, and the Shanghai warehouse receipt is 3 tons. The 5 - day change in the futures position is 16,492 hands, and the 1 - week change in the warehouse receipt is - 1 ton [8] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Silver Market Tracking - **COMEX Futures and Options**: The latest long - position of managed funds is 44,277, and the short - position is 27,801. The 5 - day change in the long - position is 57, and in the short - position is 58. The 1 - week change in the long - position is - 4,423, and in the short - position is - 4,757 [12] - **ETF Holdings**: The latest total ETF holding of silver is 23,620 tons, and SLV's holding is 13,802 tons. The 5 - day changes are 58 and 78,420 respectively [12] - **Futures Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The latest futures position of silver in Shanghai is 971,795 hands, and the Shanghai warehouse receipt is 1,075 tons. The 5 - day change in the futures position is 78,420 hands, and the 5 - day change in the warehouse receipt is - 7 tons [12] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - The import gold hedging profit margin and import silver hedging profit margin are presented in a time - series graph, with data from July 15, 2024, to January 15, 2026 [19] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - The non - commercial net long - position of the US dollar index and the total futures and options positions of the US dollar index are presented in time - series graphs, with data from July 1, 2025, to January 27, 2026 [21][22][23] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Treasury Futures Position Tracking - The non - commercial net long - positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury futures and options, as well as the total futures positions of US Treasuries, are presented in time - series graphs, with data spanning multiple years [26][27] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Inflation Expectation - The break - even inflation rates for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year periods are presented in a time - series graph, with data from December 5, 2025, to February 1, 2026 [31] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Real Interest Rate - The real yield curves of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasuries are presented in a time - series graph, with monthly data from March 2006 to September 2025 [33] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Interest Rate Term Structure - The US Treasury interest rates, inflation expectations (interpolated linearly within the year), and real interest rates (based on PCE, interpolated linearly within the year) for different maturities (1M - 30Y) are presented [35] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - 2 - Year Treasury Yield Spreads between the US and Major Non - US Countries - The yield spreads between the 2 - year US Treasury and 2 - year Treasuries of the UK, Japan, China, and Germany are presented in time - series graphs, with data from December 5, 2025, to February 1, 2026 [39]

锌产业周报 2026/2/2 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：陈乃轩 Z002313 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的 ...

国债衍生品周报 2026/2/2 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责 ...

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated February 2, 2026 [1] Core Views Bullish Factors - Indonesia's production cut expectation: The Indonesian government is expected to lower the nickel ore quota in 2026, which may lead to a global nickel supply shortage and benefit prices [3] - New energy vehicle demand: The automobile production and sales data in January were good, and policy measures may stimulate demand, supporting nickel prices [3] Bearish Factors - Domestic inventory pressure has increased [3] - The Shanghai nickel futures show a weak trend technically [3] Trading Advice - Shanghai nickel showed a "sideways and weak" trend last week. Although the expectation of production cuts in Indonesia boosted sentiment, the significant increase in inventory turned market sentiment bearish. It is recommended to monitor subsequent inventory changes [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - Shanghai nickel main contract: The latest price was 140,000 yuan/ton, down 5,380 yuan (-3.70%) week-on-week [4] - Shanghai nickel continuous contracts (1 - 3): All showed price declines, with the largest decline of 3.93% in the continuous one contract [4] - LME nickel 3M: The latest price was 17,555 US dollars/ton, down 1,035 US dollars (-3.81%) week-on-week [4] - Open interest: Increased by 73,165 lots to 132,448 lots, a week-on-week increase of 123.4% [4] - Trading volume: Increased by 281,963 lots to 1,012,443 lots, a week-on-week increase of 38.60% [4] - Warehouse receipts: Increased by 4,359 tons to 46,876 tons, a week-on-week increase of 10.25% [4] - Main contract basis: Decreased by 2,370 yuan to 2,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 46.75% [4] Stainless Steel Futures - Stainless steel main contract: The latest price was 14,140 yuan/ton, down 505 yuan (-3%) week-on-week [4] - Stainless steel continuous contracts (1 - 3): All showed price declines, with the largest decline of 3.45% in the continuous one contract [4] - Trading volume: Increased by 42,057 lots to 408,041 lots, a week-on-week increase of 11.49% [4] - Open interest: Decreased by 56,278 lots to 99,011 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 36.24% [4] - Warehouse receipts: Increased by 4,641 tons to 43,579 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11.92% [4] - Main contract basis: Increased by 405 yuan to 630 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 180.00% [4] Spot Prices - Jinchuan nickel: The latest price was 149,900 yuan/ton, down 1,750 yuan (-1.15%) [4] - Imported nickel: The latest price was 142,700 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.35%) [4] - 1 electrolytic nickel: The latest price was 146,150 yuan/ton, down 1,850 yuan (-1.25%) [4] - Nickel beans: The latest price was 145,100 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.33%) [4] - Electrowon nickel: The latest price was 142,600 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.35%) [4] Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory: Reached 70,643 tons, an increase of 4,349 tons [6] - LME nickel inventory: Reached 286,284 tons, a decrease of 186 tons [6] - Stainless steel social inventory: Reached 853 tons, an increase of 8.9 tons [6] - Nickel pig iron inventory: Reached 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons [6] Charts and Data Sources Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Prices - Shanghai nickel futures main contract closing price and LME nickel (3 months) electronic trading closing price trends from 2024 - 2026 [7] - Stainless steel futures main contract closing price trends from 2024 - 2026 [8] Spot Prices of Delivery Goods - Nickel spot average price trends from 2024 - 2026 [10] Primary Nickel Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel monthly production seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [12] - China's total monthly supply of primary nickel (including imports) seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [12] - Domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans) seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [13] - LME nickel inventory seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [13] Upstream Nickel Ore - Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) average price trends from 2015 - 2025 [15] - China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [16] - China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price (national average) trends from 2020 - 2025 [17] - Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price trends from 2021 - 2025 [17] - China's nickel iron monthly production seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [18] - Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [19] Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price trends from 2024 - 2025 [21] - Battery - grade nickel sulfate premium trends from 2021 - 2025 [23] - Nickel bean production of nickel sulfate profit margin seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [24] - China's externally purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel profit seasonality from 2023 - 2026 [24] - China's nickel sulfate monthly production (metal tons) from 2021 - 2025 [25] - Ternary precursor monthly production capacity seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [25] Stainless Steel - China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [27] - Stainless steel monthly production seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [29] - Stainless steel inventory seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Meal Market - **Soybean Meal**: Supply is abundant, inventory is high year - on - year, and demand is weak due to poor breeding profits [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Supply and demand are both weak, and it is significantly suppressed by soybean meal substitution. Attention should be paid to the supply increase expectation brought by the easing of China - Canada trade relations [3]. 2.2 Oil Market - **Soybean Oil**: Pre - holiday stocking supports inventory reduction, but the high inventory limits the rebound height [38]. - **Palm Oil**: The production reduction in producing areas provides strong support, but the domestic inventory is accumulating, showing a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic" [45]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The bottoming - out inventory supports short - term prices, but the hype about the biodiesel theme has cooled down, and it faces import impact in the long term [52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rapeseed Meal - **Overall Tone**: Supply and demand are both weak, and it is significantly suppressed by soybean meal substitution. Pay attention to the supply increase expectation brought by the easing of China - Canada trade relations [3]. - **Supply Side**: Coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and there is a short - term shortage of spot supply. After the easing of China - Canada trade relations, the market expects a large amount of imported rapeseed to arrive at ports after the Spring Festival, with huge long - term supply pressure [3]. - **Demand Side**: It is in the traditional off - season of aquaculture, and the rigid demand is extremely weak. The narrowing of the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference makes rapeseed meal lose its cost - effectiveness advantage, and its demand is further squeezed [3]. - **Inventory**: The port granular meal inventory is at a moderately high level. Although the short - term inventory has slightly declined due to the decrease in the startup rate, the overall inventory reduction rhythm is not smooth, and the inventory pressure is mainly reflected in the long - term expectation [4]. 3.2 Soybean Meal - **Overall Tone**: Supply is abundant, inventory is high year - on - year, and demand is weak due to poor breeding profits [6]. - **Supply Side**: The import volume of soybeans is large, the port soybean inventory is abundant, and the oil mills' raw material supply is sufficient. The oil mills' startup rate remains at a medium - high level, and the current spot output is still abundant. The new - crop soybeans in Brazil are expected to have a good harvest, and the export pressure will be transmitted to the Chinese market [6]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream demand shows a "not - prosperous in the peak season" phenomenon. The low pig price has frustrated the enthusiasm for replenishing stocks, and feed enterprises and farmers are cautious about pre - holiday stocking [6]. - **Inventory**: It is at a historically high level. Although there has been a slight inventory reduction recently, the total inventory is still about 70% higher than that of last year, which significantly suppresses the price [6]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - **Overall Tone**: Pre - holiday stocking supports inventory reduction, but the high inventory limits the rebound height [38]. - **Supply Side**: The soybean oil output continues to increase due to the high - level soybean crushing volume, and the supply is very sufficient. The spot crushing profit is on the verge of loss but does not significantly affect the oil mills' startup rhythm [40][41]. - **Demand Side**: Driven by pre - holiday stocking demand, the提货 speed of small and medium - sized packaged oils and the catering sector has accelerated. The low or inverted soybean - palm oil price difference makes soybean oil more cost - effective, replacing some palm oil. The overseas biodiesel theme has also driven the price rebound to some extent [42]. - **Inventory**: The commercial inventory is about 95 - 96 tons, at a relatively high level in the same period of history. It is in the inventory reduction cycle, but the large inventory base still limits the price increase space [43][44]. 3.4 Palm Oil - **Overall Tone**: The production reduction in producing areas provides strong support, but the domestic inventory is accumulating, showing a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic" [45]. - **Supply Side**: Malaysia and Indonesia are in the seasonal production reduction cycle, and the production in January decreased significantly. The serious inversion of import profit has limited the enthusiasm for domestic ship purchases, resulting in fewer new ship purchases [46][47]. - **Demand Side**: The edible demand is compressed due to low - temperature blending requirements and the lack of price advantage compared with soybean oil. The postponement of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan has affected the demand expectation, but the implementation of B40 still provides a rigid bottom - line support [48][49]. - **Inventory**: The domestic commercial inventory is still slightly high. Although imports have decreased, the inventory has increased due to weak consumption, which restricts the domestic price from rising in line with the overseas market [50][51]. 3.5 Rapeseed Oil - **Overall Tone**: The bottoming - out inventory supports short - term prices, but the hype about the biodiesel theme has cooled down, and it faces import impact in the long term [52]. - **Supply Side**: Due to the shortage of rapeseed in some oil mills in late January, the spot output of rapeseed oil has decreased periodically. The market is highly concerned about the arrival rhythm of Australian rapeseed and the import expectation of rapeseed oil after the resumption of China - Canada trade, with a "tight in the near term and loose in the long term" supply characteristic [53][54]. - **Demand Side**: The main demand is the pre - Spring Festival small - package stocking demand, and the demand in traditional consumption areas such as Sichuan and Chongqing is acceptable. The US biodiesel policy and EU demand expectation bring some positive support, but the actual export increase is limited [55][56]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed oil inventory in East China and coastal areas is at a moderately low level in the same period of history. It is in the continuous inventory reduction stage, and the marginal tightening of inventory is the main reason for the recent stronger price of rapeseed oil than other oils [57][58].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The processing fee of copper concentrates remains at a historical low. Some smelters have advanced their maintenance due to raw material shortages, resulting in a 1.2% month-on-month decline in electrolytic copper production in January [2]. - The long - term logic of the US economic resilience and the booming demand for new energy/AI infrastructure remains unchanged [2]. - The domestic social inventory of copper continues to increase, with a stronger inventory - building intensity than in previous years [2]. - The combination of concentrated profit - taking by long positions, the rebound of the US dollar, and weak spot demand has triggered a stampede - style decline [2]. - The shortage at the mine end and the long - term demand logic support the bottom, but high inventory pressure, profit - taking by funds, and the rebound of the US dollar have caused significant fluctuations. The short - term market has entered a period of sharp oscillations [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Weekly Change | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main Contract | 103,680 | 2.31% | - | 222,934 | - 8,503 | 789,998 | | Shanghai Copper Index - weighted | 103,894 | 2.40% | - | 657,539 | - 704 | 1,476,870 | | International Copper | 91,890 | 2.02% | - | 6,460 | 996 | 26,587 | | LME Copper 3 - month | 13,650.5 | 6.31% | - | 239,014 | - 38,282 | 103,995 | | COMEX Copper | 628.2 | 8.25% | - | 135,168 | - 7,604 | 197,659 | [4] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 104,185 | 4,115 | 4.11% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | Yuan/ton | 102,635 | 2,420 | 2.41% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve | Yuan/ton | 102,590 | 2,350 | 2.34% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 102,780 | 2,400 | 2.39% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | - 150 | 30 | - 16.67% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | - 205 | - 20 | 10.81% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | - 180 | - 30 | 20% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | - 165 | - 70 | 73.68% | | LME Copper (Spot/3 - month) Premium/Discount | US dollars/ton | - 93.76 | - 10.92 | 13.18% | | LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) Premium/Discount | US dollars/ton | - 74.71 | 21.91 | - 22.68% | [8][10] Copper Advanced Data | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit and Loss | Yuan/ton | - 106.03 | 544 | - 83.69% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 50.2 | - 3.62 | 7.77% | | Copper - Aluminum Ratio | Ratio | 4.2705 | 0.0729 | 1.74% | | Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference | Yuan/ton | 6,631.43 | 3,908.48 | 143.54% | [11] Copper Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipt: Total | Tons | 156,851 | 10,058 | 6.85% | | International Copper Warehouse Receipt: Total | Tons | 10,615 | - 551 | - 4.93% | | Shanghai Copper Inventory | Tons | 225,937 | 12,422 | 5.82% | | LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 132,475 | 11,325 | 9.35% | | LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 43,600 | - 3,500 | - 7.43% | | LME Copper Inventory | Tons | 176,075 | 7,825 | 4.65% | | COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 346,849 | 11,455 | 3.42% | | COMEX Copper Unregistered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 228,284 | 4,330 | 1.93% | | COMEX Copper Inventory | Tons | 575,133 | 15,785 | 2.82% | | Copper Mine Port Inventory | Ten thousand tons | 56.9 | 2.2 | 4.02% | | Social Inventory | Ten thousand tons | 41.82 | 0.43 | 1.04% | [15][17] Copper Mid - stream Production Data | Production Type | Time | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Production | 2025 - 12 - 31 | Ten thousand tons or percentage | 132.6 | 9.1 | 1,472 | 10.4 | | Copper Products Production | 2025 - 12 - 31 | Ten thousand tons or percentage | 222.9 | - 3.4 | 2,481.4 | 4.7 | [19] Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization Data | Capacity Type | Time | Unit | Annual Total Capacity | Capacity Utilization | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 12 - 31 | Ten thousand tons or percentage | 1,584 | 51.1 | - 12.21 | - 15.06 | | Scrap Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 12 - 31 | Ten thousand tons or percentage | 819 | 20.59 | - 3 | - 6.9 | | Copper Plate and Strip Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 12 - 31 | Ten thousand tons or percentage | 359 | 64.48 | - 1.96 | - 9.8 | | Copper Bar Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 12 - 31 | Ten thousand tons or percentage | 228.65 | 56.72 | 2.64 | - 0.46 | | Copper Tube Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 12 - 31 | Ten thousand tons or percentage | 278.3 | 61.59 | 1.9 | - 18.99 | [21][22] Copper Element Import Data | Import Type | Time | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Concentrate Import | 2025 - 12 - 31 | Ten thousand tons or percentage | 270.4298 | 7 | 3,031.9797 | 8 | | Anode Copper Import | 2025 - 12 - 31 | Tons or percentage | 61,340 | - 23 | 749,961 | - 16 | | Cathode Copper Import | 2025 - 12 - 31 | Tons or percentage | 258,549 | - 30 | 3,344,261 | - 11 | | Scrap Copper Import | 2025 - 12 - 31 | Tons or percentage | 238,977 | 10 | 2,342,580 | 4 | | Copper Products Import | 2025 - 12 - 31 | Tons or percentage | 440,000 | - 21.8 | 5,320,000 | - 6.4 | [24]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a soft commodity daily report dated January 30, 2026, covering sugar, cotton, apple, and jujube [1] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - Current domestic sugar demand is average, and yesterday's spot price rose due to the increase in futures prices. Short - term futures price increases are mainly affected by the capital side as foreign capital has significantly reduced short positions [3] Price and Spread Data - Sugar futures prices: SR01 closed at 5357 with a daily decline of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 1.08%; SR03 closed at 5255 with a daily decline of 0.17% and a weekly increase of 1.35%, etc. [4] - Sugar futures spreads: SR01 - 05 was 101, down 20 from the previous day and 17 from the previous week; SR05 - 09 was - 12, down 1 from the previous day and up 8 from the previous week, etc. [4] Basis Data - Sugar basis: For example, on January 29, 2026, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was - 88, down 50 from the previous day and 72 from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was - 203, down 50 from the previous day and 87 from the previous week [11] Import Price Data - Sugar import prices: On January 30, 2026, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4027, down 30 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 5100, down 39 from the previous day and 7 from the previous week [15] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - Current domestic downstream yarn mills have poor profits, but the overall inventory pressure is not large. Xinjiang yarn mills are operating at high loads, supporting the rigid consumption of cotton. Cotton prices are likely to rise under the tight - balance expectation, but the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted by the internal - external price difference in the short term. It is recommended to build long positions on pullbacks rather than chasing the rise. Future attention should be paid to downstream import situations and new order trends [17] Price and Spread Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 15160, down 185 (1.21%); Cotton 05 closed at 14670, down 240 (1.61%); etc. [18] - Cotton and cotton yarn spreads: The cotton basis was 1513, up 320; the spread of cotton 01 - 05 was 490, up 55; etc. [18] Group 4: Apple Market Core View - Recent apple demand has slowed down, and the spot price has weakened, but the futures market is relatively strong. The reduction of short positions in near - month contracts has driven the price up, and the long - position power in the main contract has increased. Future attention should be paid to whether the logic of the shortage of delivery products can return to the market [23] Price Data - Apple futures prices: AP01 closed at 8157, down 1.62% daily and 0.72% weekly; AP03 closed at 9559, down 0.78% daily and up 0.5% weekly, etc. [24] - Apple spot prices: For example, the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 was 4, with 0% daily and weekly changes [24] Group 5: Jujube Market Core View - The production of jujubes in the 2025/2026 season has been determined. The market focus is on the change in demand. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream buyers are mainly making rigid - demand replenishments. The short - term jujube price may maintain a low - level shock. In the medium and long term, the overall supply - demand of domestic new - season jujubes is loose, and the price will still be under pressure [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The steel market has neutral fundamentals with no significant contradictions, and steel prices are in a range - bound oscillation [3]. - The overall commodity market is strongly bullish, and iron ore prices deviate from fundamentals in the short - term. Iron ore supply and demand are both weak, but there is support from the steel industry chain, and the downside price space is limited [21]. - The coking coal market shows a stage - excess pattern currently. The supply - demand structure may improve around the Spring Festival, but the long - term trend is hard to change. If there is a combination of "domestic mine复产 exceeding expectations" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal - coke prices may face significant downward pressure [32]. - Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side, with silicon manganese suppressed by high inventory. Silicon iron has a slightly better fundamental situation, and in the short - term, ferroalloys are in a range - bound oscillation between the cost line and the previous pressure level [48]. - The soda ash market has an increasing supply expectation with new capacity coming on - stream. Although exports are high, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [62]. - The float glass market has a supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and supply uncertainties. The high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [86]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3211, 3128, and 3177 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3336, 3288, and 3311 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 month spreads of螺纹钢 and热卷 were 83 and 48 yuan/ton respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 49 and - 23 yuan/ton respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were - 34 and - 25 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The national aggregated price of螺纹钢 was 3317 yuan/ton; the aggregated prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and other places varied. The basis of螺纹钢 and热卷 in different contracts and regions also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio**: The ratios of 01螺纹/01铁矿 and 01螺纹/01焦炭 were both 4 and 2 respectively [17]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 760, 791.5, and 772.5 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of different contracts also changed [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily average hot metal output was 227.98 tons; the 45 - port desilting volume was 332.31 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 17022.26 tons, etc. [26]. Coal - Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month spreads of焦煤 and焦炭 changed. The盘面焦化利润 was - 24 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of different types of焦 coal and coke in various regions remained stable on January 30, 2026 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: The basis in Ningxia was 40 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 month spread was 104 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions were between 5350 - 5450 yuan/ton [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis in Inner Mongolia was 178 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 month spread was 108 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions were between 5620 - 5800 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1204, 1266, and 1299 yuan/ton respectively. The month spreads also changed [63]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of重碱 and轻碱 in different regions remained stable, and the spread between重碱 and轻碱 varied by region [63]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1056, 1167, and 1224 yuan/ton respectively. The month spreads and basis in different regions changed [87]. - **Sales and Production**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as沙河, Hubei, etc. were reported [88].