期货研究院 聚烯烃及苯乙烯期货期权日度策略 Polyolefin and EB Futures & Options DailyTrading Strategy 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 封晓芬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03098955 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017725 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年03月13日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 聚烯烃： 【行情复盘】 期货市场：今日，聚烯烃盘中冲高后震荡回落，小幅收跌，LLDPE 05合约收7773元/吨，跌0.52%，持仓变化-2734手，PP05合约收 7255元/吨，跌0.36%，持仓变化+2309手。 现货市场：聚乙烯价格延续弱势调整，贸易商继续让利出货，下游 心态偏谨慎，市场交投清淡，国内LLDPE市场主流价格在8040-86 00元/吨；PP市场，现货价格局部小幅松动，贸易商积极出货，但 下游新单跟进有限，部分原材料仍待消耗，使得整体采购积极性欠 佳，华北拉丝主流价格在7200-7300元/吨，华东拉丝主流价格在 ...

期货研究院 聚烯烃及苯乙烯期货期权日度策略 Polyolefin and EB Futures & Options DailyTrading Strategy 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 封晓芬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03098955 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017725 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年03月12日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 聚烯烃： 【行情复盘】 期货市场：今日，聚烯烃震荡偏弱，LLDPE05合约收7801元/吨， 跌0.75%，持仓变化+20136手，PP05合约收7251元/吨，跌0.74 %，持仓变化+23096手。 现货市场：聚乙烯价格多数下跌，贸易商让利出货，下游拿货积极 性一般，国内LLDPE市场主流价格在8060-8600元/吨；PP市场， 现货价格小幅下跌，上游厂商让利出货意愿增加，但下游新单跟进 有限，接货积极性不高，华北拉丝主流价格在7230-7320元/吨， 华东拉丝主流价格在7270-7420元/吨，华南拉丝主流价格在7270 - ...

Strategy 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 封晓芬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03098955 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017725 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年03月11日星期二 期货研究院 聚烯烃及苯乙烯期货期权日度策略 Polyolefin and EB Futures & Options DailyTrading 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 聚烯烃： 【行情复盘】 期货市场：今日，聚烯烃震荡偏弱，LLDPE05合约收7867元/吨， 跌0.25%，持仓变化+2684手，PP05合约收7309元/吨，跌0.41% ，持仓变化+12493手。 现货市场：聚乙烯价格部分小幅回落，上游石化厂出货价整体趋稳 ，局部下游有所提前备货，整体北方需求好于南方，国内LLDPE市 场主流价格在8000-8600元/吨；PP市场，现货价格部分松动，但 下游新单跟进有限，维持刚需采购，华北拉丝主流价格在7240-73 20元/吨，华东拉丝主流价格在7290-7400元/吨，华南拉丝主流价 格在7 ...

期货研究院 聚烯烃及苯乙烯期货期权周度策略 Polyolefin and EB Futures & Options Weekly Trading Strategy 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 封晓芬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03098955 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017725 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年03月07日星期五 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 聚烯烃： 【行情复盘】 期货市场：上周，受成本端影响，价格先抑后扬，价格重心小幅下 移，LLDPE2505合约收7883元/吨，周跌0.44%，持仓变化-1433 1手，PP2505合约收7319元/吨，周跌0.79%，持仓变化+39197 手。 现货市场：聚乙烯现货价小幅走弱，下游部分逢低补货，但整体交 投氛围一般，截止上周五，国内LLDPE市场主流价格在8000-8650 元/吨；PP市场，现货价格重心小幅下挫，部分厂商下调出厂价， 但下游备货积极性欠佳，截止上周五，华北拉丝主流价格在7250- 7320元/吨，华东拉丝主流价 ...

投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 价格回归理性区间 旺季需求或成关键 方正中期期货铁合金期货及期权2025年3月报告 方正中期黑色建材团队 汤冰华（F3038544 / Z0015153） 2025年2月28日 www.founderfu.com CO N TEN T 目录 第一部分 摘要 第二部分 锰硅期货行情分析及展望 第三部分 硅铁期货行情分析及展望 摘要 供给端：厂家利润重新回落至低位，复产意愿偏低，产量往后缺乏上升动力。（中性） 需求端：五大钢种对合金的需求有季节性回暖，但受关税和反倾销税影响，黑色整体情绪偏空，同时终端需求还未见明显 好转迹象，钢厂复产偏谨慎，实际旺季需求成色还得观望。钢铁年内还有去产能风声，中长期来看需求相对偏弱。（中性 偏弱） 成本端：锰矿价格经过一轮回落后目前维稳运行，较扰动前期仍有一定抬升。加上港口矿源集中，矿商低价出货情绪不高， 锰矿对成本支撑的贡献仍偏强，但近期化工焦受煤炭价格偏弱影响连续下跌，往后仍还有下行可能。总体上锰硅成本支撑 弱稳。（中性偏多） 短期来看，目前市场情绪偏弱，而考虑到锰硅成本仍具有一定支撑，且需求旺季仍存预期， 操作上可关注下方逢低做 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable recovery expectation for corn prices due to tight annual supply and selling pressure from farmers [1]. Core Insights - The corn market is experiencing a balance between selling pressure and tight supply expectations, leading to a stabilization in price forecasts [1][5]. - The report highlights that the average corn price in China as of the end of February 2025 was 2218 CNY/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 58 CNY/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 247 CNY/ton [9]. - The USDA has continuously revised down global corn ending stocks, predicting them to reach a ten-year low, which serves as a core support for corn prices [28][30]. Market Review - February corn prices showed a fluctuating trend, supported by tight supply expectations but pressured by high external prices and farmer selling pressure [5]. - The selling progress of farmers is reported at 70% nationwide as of February 27, 2025, which is 8% faster year-on-year [19]. - The average inventory of feed enterprises increased by 9.04% year-on-year, indicating a seasonal buildup [66]. Supply Market Analysis - The domestic corn supply forecast indicates a tightening trend, with initial stocks slightly higher, which mitigates the decline in supply [13]. - The report notes a decrease in corn imports, with a total of 1377 million tons imported in 2024, down 1337 million tons year-on-year [23]. - The supply-demand balance table shows a tightening expectation for the corn market, with limited adjustments anticipated in the balance sheet [69]. Demand Market Analysis - The report indicates a slight decrease in feed production, with a total of 316 million tons produced in 2024, reflecting a 0.88% year-on-year increase [44]. - The overall demand is expected to remain stable, supported by rigid consumption, although marginal improvements are insufficient [68]. - The report highlights that the profitability of pig farming has returned to breakeven levels, indicating a stable livestock market [51]. Options Market Analysis - In February, the average daily trading volume of corn options was 91,560 contracts, an increase of 21,625 contracts month-on-month [74]. - The report suggests an options trading strategy around the price range of 2220-2380 CNY for the corn May contract [78]. - The report recommends that upstream enterprises consider selling out-of-the-money calls to offset income losses, while downstream enterprises should look at buying at-the-money calls for cost locking [132]. Seasonal Analysis and Price Outlook - The report notes that corn prices tend to rise in February and October due to seasonal factors, while July and November are typically associated with price declines [92]. - The price outlook for the corn May contract is expected to fluctuate between 2220-2380 CNY, with a focus on the tightening supply and selling pressure [94].

主要观点 • 宏观：全球降息节奏及经济增长变化继续影响市场走势，海外经济增长放缓压力存在，而美国因加关税政策实施， 再通胀压力回升，对经济的负面影响也可能出现。而国内积极财政和适度宽松货币宽松及国内消费刺激之下预期有 一定回升空间，但贸易摩擦不确定性带来全球经济增长降速风险继续存在。地缘形势复杂变化，增强了宏观不确定 性。 • 供应端：锌精矿供给偏紧情况改善，月度加工费出现显著回升。冶炼企业亏损收窄，盈利有继续改善空间，不过锌 定供应仍需要时间改善，流通紧张与预期宽松情况并存。 • 需求端：从锌下游三大需求来看，2025年地产端企稳修复对需求修复料有一定正面企稳作用，以镀锌端为代表的 需求端均会有一定回升可能。但是贸易摩擦料对材料及终端出口带来较多不确定性，需求端扰动因素增加。2025 年初，季节性因素有所显现，春节前开工转淡，春节后逐渐恢复，但开工带来的需求修复程度较为有限，且原料库 存回升也显示，需求增长不及预期。 • 展望：2025年3月，宏观不确定性将继续对有色带来较强扰动，而供需矛盾由供需偏紧向供需过剩转向将进一步延 续，沪锌料转向宽幅波动重心下移，市场运行区间预计主要会在22500-24500元/ ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook for lithium carbonate prices, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend due to oversupply and seasonal demand weakness [2][53]. Core Insights - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing a significant increase in supply, with lithium carbonate production reaching historical highs, while demand is showing seasonal fluctuations [10][18]. - The report highlights that the lithium carbonate price fell by 5.31% in February, closing at 75,200 CNY per ton, driven by unexpected supply releases and inventory accumulation [6][54]. - The demand for lithium salts is expected to recover in March, with a projected increase of around 10% [28]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Development Trends in the Lithium Battery New Energy Industry Chain - The lithium battery industry chain has shown a general price decline in February, with lithium carbonate spot prices dropping by 3.34% [8]. - The production of lithium carbonate is expected to recover quickly after the Spring Festival, aligning with seasonal patterns [10]. Section 2: Logic of Fluctuations in Lithium Carbonate Futures - The report notes that the lithium carbonate market is currently facing a supply surplus, with a potential increase in excess supply expected in 2025 [45]. - The report emphasizes the importance of hedging strategies for industry players, suggesting that they should actively hedge during high inventory periods [54]. Section 3: Risk Management in the Lithium Battery New Energy Industry - The report discusses the impact of seasonal demand fluctuations on market sentiment, particularly in the context of electric vehicle sales, which have shown strong growth [31][36]. - It also mentions that the demand for energy storage batteries may face challenges due to regulatory changes and market expectations [37][41].

期货研究院 聚烯烃及苯乙烯期货期权日度策略 Polyolefin and EB Futures & Options DailyTrading Strategy 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 封晓芬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03098955 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017725 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年02月27日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 聚烯烃： 【行情复盘】 期货市场：今日，聚烯烃小幅上涨，LLDPE05合约收7912元/吨， 涨1.22%，持仓变化+5737手，PP05合约收7370元/吨，涨0.78% ，持仓变化-31965手。 现货市场：聚乙烯现货价部分下跌，贸易商随行出货，下游心态谨 慎，部分逢低小单补仓，国内LLDPE市场主流价格在8000-8650元 /吨；PP市场，价格窄幅整理，临近月底，部分货源略偏少，但下 游采购意愿不高，交投氛围一般，华北拉丝主流价格在7200-7330 元/吨，华东拉丝主流价格在7280-7430元/吨，华南拉丝主流价格 在73 ...