有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月29日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 12月金银铜均出现加速上行，一方面受美元流动性改善驱动，另一 方面铜的全球库存结构性矛盾以及自身估值修复对行情起到了推波 助澜的作用。短期虽然受到假期不确定性增加，获利盘止盈离场的 影响，铜价格短期波动加剧，但中长期上行趋势未改。宏观层面， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: South American soybean growth is good with a high probability of a bumper harvest, and US soybean exports are slow, leading to weak CBOT soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, concerns about soybean customs clearance have supported domestic bean prices, but overall soybean and soybean oil supplies are sufficient, suppressing price increases. With ample supply and limited short - term bullish drivers, it is advisable to hold short positions lightly. The support level for the main 05 contract is 7600 - 7650 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 7900 - 7950 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated on Monday. The current inventory is in a destocking state. With Australian rapeseed not yet in the crushing stage, the market's bullish sentiment has increased. The near - month contract prices have risen rapidly, but the upside of the 05 contract is limited due to expected supply increases. In the short - term, it is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, supply increases and a global bumper harvest will put pressure on prices, while anti - dumping duties and high import costs provide some support. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side operations and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil fluctuated weakly on Monday. The fundamentals of the main producing areas have improved slightly, but the market still expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to continue to accumulate in December, limiting price rebounds. With long - term deep import profit inversion and stagnant ship purchases in the past two weeks, there is some bottom support. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side operations and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [2]. - **Other Products**: For other products such as soybeans, corn, and their derivatives, as well as livestock and poultry products like pigs and eggs, the report provides detailed market analyses, support and resistance levels, and corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand relationships, inventory situations, and market sentiment [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: The 05 contract of soybeans (domestic) is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to hold short - term long positions; the 05 contract of soybeans (imported) is expected to rise first and then fall, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [9]. - **Oils**: The 05 contract of soybean oil is expected to be oscillating bearishly, and it is recommended to sell on rallies; the 05 contract of rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see; the 05 contract of palm oil is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to turn to a wait - and - see stance [9]. - **Proteins**: The 05 contract of soybean meal is expected to rise first and then fall, and it is recommended to sell on rallies; the 05 contract of rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Energy and By - products**: The 03 contract of corn is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to take a short - term long - position approach; the 03 contract of corn starch is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to take a short - term long - position approach [9]. - **Livestock Farming**: The 03 contract of pigs is expected to find a bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position; the 05 contract of eggs is expected to find a bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to buy at low prices [9]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Arbitrage**: For different products, the report provides current values, previous values, price changes, and corresponding arbitrage strategies, including waiting and seeing, positive spreads (buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts), and negative spreads (selling near - term contracts and buying far - term contracts) [10][11]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For different product combinations, the report provides current values, previous values, price changes, and corresponding arbitrage strategies, such as waiting and seeing, bearish operations [11]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming products [12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Tables 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, such as CNF prices, import duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybean (port) inventory, soybean meal (oil mill) inventory, and soybean oil (port) inventory [16][17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of corn from different countries and months [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes indicators such as the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, corn inventory, starch enterprise operating rate, and starch enterprise inventory [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Daily Data**: It includes daily data of pigs and eggs, such as spot prices, price changes, and basis changes [19][20]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes weekly key data of pigs and eggs, such as spot prices, breeding costs, profits, and inventory data [22][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Pigs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of pigs and eggs, spot prices, and related price indicators [24][25][26]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes charts related to palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, such as production, exports, inventory, and basis [33][40][48]. - **Feed**: It includes charts related to corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal, such as closing prices, spot prices, basis, and inventory [51][58][63][70]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various products, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts [86][88]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of warehouse receipt quantities of various products, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [94][96][97][100][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global sugar market is in a state of oversupply. Brazil has entered the off - season, while India and Thailand are likely to have a bumper sugar harvest. In the domestic market, the opening of sugar mills in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong has increased, leading to a seasonal supply pressure. Although there is a short - term consumption peak and a reduction in imported sugar, the overall sugar price is expected to be weak [3]. - The long - term supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the cancellation of old broad - leaf pulp warehouse receipts and the increase in new warehouse receipt costs may drive up the bottom of the market. However, the current global supply of bleached softwood pulp is not tight, and the inventory of domestic and European ports is relatively high. The domestic pulp and paper industry has a low profit, and it is difficult to form a trend - upward market in the short term [3]. - The apple futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. The new - season production, good - fruit rate, and peak value are lower than the previous year, which provides support, but the lack of consumption growth also restricts the upward movement [19]. - For cotton, the external market is at a low level, while the domestic market has a positive outlook. The long - term positive factors are strong, and the futures price is expected to move upward [19]. - The jujube futures price may show a short - term rebound. The reduction in production may be reflected in the far - month contracts, and investors can consider buying at low prices [19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2605**: Adopt an interval trading strategy. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 9700 - 9800. The new - season production, good - fruit rate, and peak value are lower than the previous year, but the lack of consumption growth restricts the upward movement [19]. - **Jujube 2605**: Consider short - term buying at low prices. The support range is 9000 - 9300, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800. The reduction in production may be reflected in the far - month contracts [19]. - **Sugar 2605**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The support range is 5000 - 5030, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5330. The increase in sugar production in India and the domestic new - sugar listing increase the supply, but the reduction in imported sugar and the improvement in demand alleviate the supply pressure to some extent [19]. - **Pulp 2605**: Adopt an interval - long strategy. The support range is 5300 - 5400, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5800. The upward movement of the futures price may face delivery pressure, and the fundamental improvement is limited [19]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The support range is 3900 - 4000, and the pressure range is 4200 - 4300. The raw material price fluctuations affect the cost, but the spot price is stable, and the futures price is expected to move within a range [19]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14800 - 15000. The external market is at a low level, while the domestic market has a positive outlook, and the long - term positive factors are strong [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 702,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons [20]. - **Spot Market**: In Shandong, the trading shifted from outside the warehouse to inside the warehouse. The cold - storage mainly traded 75 - 80 slice - red apples suitable for export and small - volume purchases of inferior and third - grade fruits. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage mainly sold low - quality and low - price apples. In the sales area, the arrival volume in the wholesale market increased compared with November, and the sales were stable [20][21][22]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of last week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 16,108 tons, a week - on - week increase of 318 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%, and a year - on - year increase of 34.68%. The procurement in Xinjiang is approaching the end [23]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of December 28, 2025, 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, an increase of 7 compared with the same period last year. All 73 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, a decrease of 1 compared with the same period last year. In November 2025, the import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [24]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market In November 2025, the total import volume of pulp was 3.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The export volume of Brazilian broad - leaf pulp was 1.6206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 7.0% [28]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the weekly increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand was still weak, and the overall inventory pressure increased. The operating rate was 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points [29]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market In October 2025, the retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories in the United States increased by 5.72% year - on - year and 0.87% month - on - month. In November 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the off - season, with a significant month - on - month decrease in import volume and value and a slight year - on - year increase [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9163 | - 84 | - 0.91% | | Jujube 2605 | 8970 | - 10 | - 0.11% | | Sugar 2605 | 5253 | - 32 | - 0.61% | | Pulp 2605 | 5510 | - 120 | - 2.13% | | Cotton 2605 | 14435 | - 100 | - 0.69% | [31] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5360 | - 20 | - 670 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5550 | 0 | - 750 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15541 | 224 | 835 | [37] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary was found in the provided text, only relevant figure references such as Figure 16 (Apple May Basis), Figure 17 (Jujube Main Contract Basis), etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 1 - 5 | 424 | - 23 | 973 | Oscillatory decline | Wait - and - see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | 130 | 270 | - 490 | Interval oscillation | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 12 | 3 | - 45 | Oscillatory fluctuation | Wait - and - see | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 35 | 5 | 65 | Interval fluctuation | Wait - and - see | [56] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary was found in the provided text, only relevant figure references such as Figure 29 (Top 20 Long Positions in Apple Futures), Figure 30 (Top 20 Short Positions in Apple Futures), etc. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 1171 | 79 | 46 | | Sugar | 5038 | 0 | - 5095 | | Pulp | 102980 | 2000 | - 231506 | | Cotton | 5085 | 232 | 2264 | [84] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary was found in the provided text, only relevant figure references such as Figure 53 (Apple Option Trading Volume), Figure 54 (Apple Option Open Interest), etc.

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The general continuation of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the non - ferrous metal mining end support the sector's performance. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market has weakened the US dollar, which is favorable for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may cause the overseas market to perform relatively stronger. During the Christmas period, capital outflows increased volatility, but the domestic non - ferrous and precious metals markets remained strong, and the US market followed the domestic market for a catch - up rise [10]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different fundamentals, showing a pattern of strong and weak differentiation within the sector. It is necessary to pay attention to the resonance opportunities between macro and micro factors. For example, copper has tight supply - demand fundamentals in the long - term, and the funds' enthusiasm remains high. The copper price has reached a new high, driving the upward rotation of the sector [10]. Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro - logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strongly influenced by macro factors. Monetary easing continues, and there are continuous contradictions in the mining end. Japan's intervention in the exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. During the Christmas period, capital outflows increase volatility, but the domestic market is stronger, and the US market follows the domestic market [10]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Metal**: - **Copper**: The acceptance of high copper prices by domestic downstream industries is increasing, and terminal demand is in the seasonal peak season. The production of copper products has reached a high level this year and is expected to continue rising in December. The long - term processing fees for copper concentrate in 2026 have decreased significantly, indicating future supply shortages. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the short - term upper pressure range at 105,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 99,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [3][11]. - **Aluminum and Aluminum Alloys**: The aluminum market has complex supply - demand conditions. The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry is increasing, while the operating capacity of alumina has decreased. The downstream demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to buy on dips for aluminum and hold short positions for alumina [12]. - **Zinc**: The domestic non - ferrous metals sector is strong, and zinc is expected to follow the upward trend. The processing fees are decreasing, and the domestic zinc spot inventory is falling. It is recommended to buy on dips when the price does not fall below the support level, with the upper pressure range at 23,500 - 23,600 yuan and the short - term lower support at 22,800 - 23,000 yuan [6]. - **Lead**: The domestic non - ferrous metals sector is strong, and lead has strengthened significantly in the second half of the week. There may be production cuts in some recycled lead due to environmental protection measures, and there is cost support. However, the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the price trends with the short - term lower support at 16,700 - 16,800 yuan and the upper pressure at 17,500 - 17,700 yuan [6]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong, and nickel has outstanding performance. There are expectations of supply reduction and cost increase in the nickel industry. Stainless steel has followed nickel's upward trend. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish on nickel and buy on dips for stainless steel [7][13]. - **Tin**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong, and tin has a small upward trend. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the mining end situation and policy regulation. The upper pressure range is 350,000 - 355,000 yuan, and the lower support range is 310,000 - 320,000 yuan [6]. Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Price Changes**: The report provides the closing prices and percentage changes of various non - ferrous metal futures in the past week. For example, copper closed at 98,720 yuan with a 5.95% increase, and aluminum closed at 22,405 yuan with a 1.66% increase [14]. Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot Price Changes**: The report presents the spot prices and percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price at 98,040 yuan/ton with a 3.09% increase, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price at 23,220 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase [18]. Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: The report includes charts on exchange copper inventory changes, SMM social copper inventory changes, copper concentrate refining fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper prices [20][22]. - **Zinc**: Charts on zinc inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fees, zinc spot market prices, and related production and inventory seasonality are provided [24][27]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Information on the relationship between aluminum inventory and price, alumina production capacity, and inventory changes is presented [36][44]. - **Other Metals**: Similar data tracking charts are provided for tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and other metals [54][60][70]. Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - **Arbitrage Recommendation**: A reverse arbitrage opportunity between the copper 2602 - 2603 contracts is recommended. The supply - end constraints are increasing, and the Fed's entry into the interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion cycle is favorable for the far - month contracts [14]. Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - **Option Strategies**: For different non - ferrous metals, different option strategies are recommended. For example, for copper, it is recommended to buy deep out - of - the - money long - term call options; for zinc, hold a strangle strategy; for lead and nickel, use a covered call strategy [4][6][7].

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | 投资咨询证号： Z0020712 联系方式： 18001936153 投资咨询证号： Z0017427 作者： 王亮亮 从业资格证号： F03096306 联系方式： 010-68578697 软商品板块 白糖 作者： 辛旋 从业资格证号： F3064981 投资咨询证号： Z0016876 联系方式： -- 作者： 汤冰华 从业资格证号： F3038544 投资咨询证号： Z0015153 联系方式： 010-68518793 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月28日星期日 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 【市场逻辑】 本周郑糖止跌上涨。巴西榨季步入尾声后糖产量大幅下降带动节前 原糖价格走强，拉动郑糖上涨。目前印度及泰国糖预期丰产，但印 度糖出口倒挂限制其实质出口量，泰国因糖价偏低也 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The overall direction of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the mining end continue to support non - ferrous metals. However, due to factors such as capital outflows during Christmas, the sector experiences a round of strong consolidation. There are differences in fundamentals among non - ferrous metals, leading to a differentiation in strength. It is recommended to focus on opportunities where macro and micro factors resonate [12]. - Copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving central value in the future, driven by its financial attributes, valuation repair, and the global inventory structural contradiction. It is advisable to gradually go long on Shanghai Copper on dips [3]. - Zinc is in an oscillatory state. As long as the lower support level holds, one can go long on dips [4]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or long - biased approach. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is suggested [5]. - Tin is recommended to be on the sidelines, and attention should be paid to the trends of other non - ferrous metals and policy regulations [6]. - Lead shows a short - term upward trend, and one can go long on dips [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a short - term bullish state, but attention should be paid to macro - liquidity changes and the implementation of Indonesian policies [9]. Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. Monetary easing continues, and contradictions in the mining end support the sector. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may lead to relatively stronger performance in the external market. During Christmas, capital outflows increase volatility, and non - ferrous metals experience a round of strong consolidation. The US economic data shows mixed performance, and China's economic data such as power consumption is positive. The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted but moved away from lows, with internal differentiation in strength. Copper, with its tight supply - demand situation, drives the sector upward. As weak - performing varieties make up for losses, the sector may experience profit - taking and increased volatility. Attention should be paid to spot - market feedback [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: This week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, with the focus on the third - quarter real GDP on December 23. China will release the November industrial enterprise profit data on December 27. The Christmas holiday leads to market closures in the UK and the US [13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: Driven by factors such as the high - than - expected US GDP and inflation, and the global inventory structural contradiction, copper prices are expected to rise. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying near - month slightly out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Zinc**: With a relatively warm macro environment and a slowdown in the decline of processing fees, zinc is in an oscillatory recovery state. It can be bought on dips as long as the support level holds, with an upper pressure range of 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan/ton. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. For recycled aluminum alloy, a wait - and - see or long - biased approach is suggested, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: Affected by sector adjustment, policy利空, and nickel market resonance, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: With a weak US dollar and cost support, lead prices are rising. It is advisable to go long in the short term, with a lower support range of 16,700 - 16,800 yuan/ton and an upper pressure range of 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and potential policy changes, nickel and stainless steel are short - term bullish. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 128,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 123,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton [9]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lead, copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum alloy, aluminum, industrial silicon, gold, zinc, alumina, tin, and nickel [19]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [20][22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides relevant charts for each non - ferrous metal in the industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][28][30] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and other aspects of copper, zinc, and aluminum [74][76][79]

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月23日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 美国联邦基金期货小幅提高了明年1月降息的几率，美元指数跌破9 8，创5日新低，金银再创历史新高，提振沪铜至前高附近。国内下 游对高铜价的接受度开始逐步提升，终端需求进入季节性旺季，11 月精铜杆，铜箔，铜管，铜板带和铜棒产量均出现环比增加， ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 周二，郑糖主力合约止跌反弹，主力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: This week, the main soybean oil contract dropped significantly. Favorable weather in South American soybean - growing regions, a slowdown in US soybean exports, and potential improvement in China - Canada trade relations led to a weakening of soybean oil. With increased import soybean auctions in China and sufficient inventory, supply is generally loose. It is recommended to hold a short - position in the main contract, with support at 7,600 - 7,650 yuan/ton and resistance at 7,950 - 8,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil contract declined sharply this week. Global rapeseed harvest expectations, increased Australian rapeseed imports, and potential improvement in China - Canada relations have created a bearish sentiment. It is advisable to maintain a short - position, with resistance at 9,500 - 9,550 yuan/ton and support at 8,450 - 8,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main palm oil contract was dragged down this week. Although there are some positive factors in its fundamentals, such as a decline in December Malaysian palm oil production and improved exports, it was affected by the weakening of crude oil and other oils. Short - term cautious short - selling is recommended, with resistance at 8,700 - 8,750 yuan/ton and support at 8,150 - 8,200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Bean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans, DCE Bean No. 2, and soybean meal prices fell. Favorable South American weather, a slowdown in US soybean exports, and increased import soybean auctions in China suggest that the supply shortage expected from February to April may be alleviated. Short - term short - selling is recommended for both. For the soybean meal 05 contract, support is at 2,650 - 2,680 yuan/ton and resistance at 2,780 - 2,800 yuan/ton. For the Bean No. 2 01 contract, support is at 3,570 - 3,600 yuan/ton and resistance at 3,750 - 3,800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal futures oscillated this week. With Australian rapeseed entering the crushing stage and expected supply increase, the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with support at 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton and resistance at 2,440 - 2,450 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Bean No. 1**: The main Bean No. 1 contract declined. The overall supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, but there is a structural shortage of high - protein soybeans. With the start of competitive sales and high trader inventories, downstream procurement is not active. Short - term short - selling is recommended, with resistance at 4,130 - 4,160 yuan/ton and support at 3,980 - 4,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend. The overseas market is focused on consumption and South American weather. The domestic market was previously driven by structural contradictions but is now affected by negative news. It is expected to enter a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see. For the corn 2603 contract, support is at 2,160 - 2,170 yuan/ton and resistance at 2,300 - 2,320 yuan/ton. For the corn starch 03 contract, support is at 2,430 - 2,440 yuan/ton and resistance at 2,600 - 2,620 yuan/ton [5]. - **Pigs**: Pig spot prices fluctuated slightly over the weekend. Pig prices have fallen below the cash cost in some areas, and the pig - grain ratio has dropped below 5:1. The futures price of live pigs hit a new low this year, and the 03 contract oscillated at a low level. It is recommended that cautious investors hold a short - near - term and long - far - term reverse spread, while aggressive investors can buy the 2607 contract when it falls below the breeding cost [6]. - **Eggs**: Egg spot prices weakened over the weekend. The egg index continued to oscillate and rebound at the bottom. Terminal consumption is expected to increase in December. With farmers increasing the culling of laying hens, the supply - demand pattern is improving. Aggressive investors can buy the 2605 contract at low prices, and it is not advisable to short - sell speculatively [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the feed, livestock, and oil industries, including their supply - demand logic, support and resistance levels, market trends, and recommended strategies [10]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report presents the spot prices, price changes, basis of the main contracts, and basis changes of different commodities in the feed, livestock, and oil industries [11][12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, such as CNF prices, import - duty - paid prices, and soybean meal costs when the crushing profit is zero [13][14]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, including soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [15]. 3.2.2 Feed The report provides weekly data on corn and corn starch, including deep - processing enterprise consumption, inventory, operating rate, and farmers' grain - selling progress [15]. 3.2.3 Livestock The report presents weekly data on the pig and egg markets, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and supply - demand indicators [16][17]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts This part includes a large number of charts related to the livestock (pigs and eggs), oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, which visually display the price trends, inventory changes, and other information of various commodities [18 - 87]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report shows the historical volatility of various commodities' options and the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [67 - 76]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report presents the warehouse receipt quantities and open interest of various commodities, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [78 - 87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but with increased volatility. After the digestion of macro - negative sentiments and supported by fundamentals, most non - ferrous metals have shown a recovery. However, there are still differences in strength among different varieties. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the resonance between fundamentals and macro - drivers [11][12]. - The market is currently affected by multiple factors such as the US interest - rate cut expectations, potential Japanese interest - rate hikes, fluctuations in technology stocks, and changes in economic data in China and the US. The performance of each non - ferrous metal variety is affected by both macro - environment and its own fundamentals [11][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. After the digestion of negative factors and with the support of fundamentals, the sector is recovering. There are differences in performance among different varieties. Key factors include the US interest - rate cut expectations, potential Japanese interest - rate hikes, and fluctuations in technology stocks [11]. - **Economic Data**: In China, from January to November, real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 7.8% year - on - year. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods dropped to 1.3%. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year. In the US, the unemployment rate in November rose to a four - year high, and the retail sales in October were generally flat [11]. - **Investment Recommendations**: | Variety | Operation Logic | Support Area | Pressure Area | Market Judgment | Strategy | Recommendation Intensity | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | Affected by factors such as US employment data and market sentiment, with improved downstream acceptance of high prices and a structural contradiction in global copper inventory, the copper price is expected to rise. | 90000 - 91000 | 94500 - 95000 | Oscillating upward | Buy on dips | +1 | | Zinc | With a good short - term fundamental situation and affected by factors such as supply reduction and demand changes, the market is oscillating. | 22800 - 23000 | 23500 - 23800 | Oscillating consolidation | Wait - and - see | +0.5 | | Aluminum Industry Chain | The aluminum market is in an oscillating adjustment phase, with an oversupply situation in alumina and a complex situation in the aluminum downstream. | 21000 - 21300; 2000 - 2200; 20000 - 20400 | 23000 - 24000; 2800 - 3000; 21500 - 21800 | Aluminum oscillating adjustment; Alumina oscillating at the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy oscillating adjustment | Wait - and - see or buy on dips; Sell on rallies; Wait - and - see or buy on dips | +0.5/-0.5/+0.5 | | Tin | Affected by supply and demand factors such as smelter production and consumption, the market is oscillating. | 290000 - 300000 | 335000 - 340000 | Oscillating consolidation | Wait - and - see for the time being | - 0.5 | | Lead | Affected by factors such as smelter production and demand changes in lead - acid battery enterprises, the price is oscillating weakly. | 16500 - 16600 | 17200 - 17300 | Oscillating weakly | Double - selling strategy | - 0.5 | | Nickel | Affected by factors such as potential RKAB quota reduction in Indonesia and supply - demand changes, the price is rebounding. | 110000 - 112000 | 120000 - 122000 | Rebound | Short - term rebound | +1 | | Stainless Steel | In a period of weak supply and demand, with reduced production in December and weak demand. | 12200 - 12300 | 12700 - 12800 | Repeated at low levels | Wait - and - see for the time being | +0.5 | [13][14][15][16] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price change rates of various non - ferrous metals are presented in a table. For example, copper closed at 92600 with a - 0.24% change, and zinc closed at 23030 with a 0.26% change [17]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector includes information on the price change rate, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base value, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as Shanghai silver, Shanghai tin, and industrial silicon [19]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price change rates of various non - ferrous metals are presented in a table. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 92430 yuan/ton with a 0.10% change, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 23140 yuan/ton with a 0.52% change [20][21][22]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Relevant data charts of various non - ferrous metals industry chains are presented, including copper inventory changes, zinc inventory changes, and aluminum inventory and price trends [25][28][31]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Relevant data charts for arbitrage analysis of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the zinc Shanghai - London ratio change [57][58]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Relevant data charts for option analysis of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the historical volatility of copper options and the weighted implied volatility of zinc options [75][77].