Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expects the palm oil inventory in the producing areas to peak at the end of October, improving market sentiment. The strengthening of the external palm oil market drives up the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and other related products. However, the sufficient domestic oil inventory restricts the increase in soybean oil prices. The rise in soybean cost narrows the oil mill's profit margin, but there is a driving force for profit repair, which effectively supports the soybean oil price. [3][4] - The inventory of rapeseed oil has significantly decreased this week, relieving the high - inventory pressure and boosting market sentiment. After the previous decline, the support at the lower level has strengthened, and with the expectation of improved consumption in the future, the futures price has rebounded. However, the shipment of Australian rapeseed in November may limit the increase in the futures price. [3] - For soybean meal, although the export inspection volume of US soybeans has decreased and the domestic soybean inventory is accumulating, the subsequent narrowing of profit margins and negative buying of ships provide strong support at the lower level. There is a continuous driving force for profit repair. [4] - The corn futures price rebounded on Tuesday, driven by the price - increasing sentiment of deep - processing enterprises. However, the continuous rebound momentum of the futures price is still insufficient, and the full reflection of the concentrated supply pressure remains to be verified. [5] - The price of live pigs is in a bottom - seeking stage. The feed price has stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction has strengthened. The far - month futures price is slightly at a premium to the spot price. [8][9] - The egg futures price shows a pattern of near - month weakness and far - month strength. The spot price has stopped rising and adjusted after a continuous rebound. With the expectation of the end of the cycle, the far - month contract is supported and shows a strong performance. The overall consumption is gradually entering a peak season, and the egg - laying hen inventory capacity is gradually being reduced. [9] Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply - Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 01 | After the continuous rise in the price of domestic new soybeans, the purchasing sentiment of the middle and lower reaches has cooled, but the farmers' reluctance to sell remains. | 4000 - 4020 | 4180 - 4200 | Firm operation | Temporary wait - and - see | | | Soybean No.2 01 | The restart of the USDA website is expected to release a positive November supply - demand report. The import profit of soybeans in China is still negative. Affected by the cost side, the price of Soybean No.2 has increased. | 3685 - 3710 | 3850 - 3900 | Oscillatory rise | Hold long positions | | | Peanut 01 | The market supply is increasing, but the yield performance in some areas is not good. | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Oscillatory adjustment | Buy on dips | | Oils | Soybean Oil 01 | The increase in soybean import cost narrows the oil mill's profit margin. | 8000 - 8030 | 8350 - 8400 | Oscillatory strength | Light - position trial long or sell out - of - the - money put options | | | Rapeseed Oil 01 | The oil mill's operation is almost at a standstill, the inventory has been significantly reduced, and market sentiment has been boosted. | 9300 - 9350 | 9840 - 9890 | Oscillatory strength | Light - position trial long or sell out - of - the - money put options | | | Palm 01 | The negative impact of the October MPOB monthly report has been released. The producing areas are about to enter the production - reduction season, and the inventory is expected to peak. In the short term, palm oil may continue the upward trend. | 8530 - 8550 | 9000 - 9050 | Bottom - building and rising | Light - position trial long or sell out - of - the - money put options | | Proteins | Soybean Meal 01 | The restart of the USDA website is expected to release a positive November supply - demand report, and the import profit is still negative. The cost side provides obvious support. | 2970 - 2980 | 3100 - 3150 | Firm operation | Temporary wait - and - see | | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | There is a short - term supply shortage, but the shipment of Australian rapeseed eases the supply expectation. It is also the off - season for demand, with both long and short factors intertwined. | 2400 - 2430 | 2570 - 2600 | Narrow - range oscillation | Wait - and - see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 01 | The profit of deep - processing has been repaired, and the price - increasing sentiment provides support. However, the concentrated supply has not been fully released, and the futures price may rebound slightly in the short term. | 2050 - 2070 | 2200 - 2220 | Slight rebound | Close short positions and wait - and - see | | | Starch 01 | The cost of corn has rebounded slightly, and the starch futures price has followed the upward trend. | 2350 - 2360 | 2520 - 2540 | Slight rebound | Close short positions and wait - and - see | | Livestock | Live Pig 01 | The feed price has stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction has strengthened. | 11500 - 12000 | 12500 - 12800 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Switch to wait - and - see | | | Egg 12 | The expected decrease in newly - opened laying hens and the peak consumption season. | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Buy on dips | [12] 2. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Arbitrage**: For most varieties, the current values are the same as the previous values, and the recommended strategies are mainly wait - and - see. For example, for Soybean No.1 1 - 5, Soybean No.2 1 - 5, etc., the current values are unchanged, and the strategies are to wait and see. For Peanut 1 - 4, the value has increased by 30, and the strategy is to short the near - month contract and long the far - month contract. For Corn 5 - 1, the strategy is to buy on dips with a target range of 150 - 200. For Live Pig 1 - 3, the strategy is to conduct a positive spread on dips. [13] - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For some oil - related spreads, such as 01 Soybean Oil - Palm Oil, 01 Rapeseed Oil - Palm Oil, and 01 Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal, the current values are unchanged, and the strategies are mainly temporary wait - and - see. For 01 Rapeseed Oil - Soybean Oil, the strategy is to take a long - biased operation. For the oil - meal ratio of 01 soybeans and 01 rapeseeds, the strategies are to take light - position long positions. For 01 Starch - Corn, the strategy is to wait and see with a reference range of 300 - 350. [13] 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis values and their changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds (Soybean No.1, Soybean No.2, Peanut), oils (Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Palm Oil), proteins (Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal), energy and by - products (Corn, Starch), and livestock (Live Pig, Egg). [14][15] Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including CIF premiums, CBOT or ICE futures prices, CNF prices, and landed duty - paid prices. [16][17] - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils. For example, the port soybean inventory is 767.08 (decreased by 15.58), the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 99.86 (decreased by 15.44), and the port soybean oil inventory is 114.00 (decreased by 5.90). The operating rate of soybean - related processing is 55.00% (increased by 1.00%). [19] 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: The import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided, including CNF prices and landed duty - paid costs. [19] - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises. For example, the consumption of corn in deep - processing enterprises is 125.40 (increased by 1.93), and the inventory is 279.50 (decreased by 3.20). [20] 3. Livestock - **Daily Data**: The daily data of live pigs and eggs are provided, including the prices of different types of live pigs in different regions, the prices of 7KG outer - ternary piglets, pork wholesale prices, pig - grain ratios, basis, and monthly spreads. For eggs, the daily price changes in different regions and the prices of culled chickens are provided. [21][22] - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of live pigs and eggs are provided, including the average prices of binary sows, outer - ternary piglets, outer - ternary live pigs, and the costs and profits of different breeding methods. For eggs, the data on the supply side (laying rate, proportion of different sizes, culled chicken age, culled chicken output), demand side (sales volume, inventory in production and circulation links), and related profits and prices are provided. [23][24][25] Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts The report provides a series of charts to track the fundamentals of the livestock (live pigs, eggs), oilseeds and oils (palm oil, soybean oil, peanut), and feed (corn, corn starch, rapeseed, soybean meal) sectors, including price trends, inventory changes, operating rates, and other aspects. [27][30][31][32][33][34][36][38][40][42][44][46][53][56][62][66][77] Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides charts on the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanut, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options. [91][93][94] Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides charts on the warehouse receipt situations of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the live pig index and the egg index. [96][97][98][99]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply surplus expectation suppresses the sugar market, with India increasing sugar production and allowing exports, and ICE raw sugar under pressure. In the domestic market, Zheng sugar has limited upside potential due to factors such as old sugar inventory clearance and new sugar listing [2]. - Pulp futures are relatively strong, but the fundamental improvement is limited, and the future supply pressure in China may still be high. The upward movement and sustainability depend on the performance of the finished paper market [5]. - The demand improvement for double - offset paper is limited, and the upward driving force is weak, although there is some cost support from the pulp price increase [6]. - The cotton market, both domestically and internationally, is in a low - range fluctuation. The short - term upward potential is restricted by factors such as supply pressure and uncertain consumption recovery [8]. - For apples, the new - season initial inventory is lower year - on - year, and the futures price is expected to be oscillating strongly [9]. - The jujube market has seen a decline in the expectation of production reduction, and the futures price has fallen back. Attention should be paid to the new jujube opening price [10]. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2605**: Recommend buying on dips due to lower initial inventory year - on - year; also recommend closing short positions on dips because of high futures premium. Support range is 8500 - 8600, and pressure range is 9400 - 9500 [19]. - **Jujube 2601**: Aggressive investors can short on rallies around 9500 - 10500; cautious investors can hold a short 01 and long 05 spread position [11]. - **Sugar 2601**: Recommend shorting on rallies as supply pressure increases and domestic enterprises face old sugar inventory clearance. Support range is 5380 - 5400, and pressure range is 5510 - 5540 [2][19]. - **Pulp 2601**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines as the cost of warehouse receipts increases, but the supply remains high and the fundamental improvement is limited [5][19]. - **Double - offset paper 2601**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines as there is cost support from pulp price increase, but demand suppresses the price [6][19]. - **Cotton 2601**: Reduce short positions as the increase in new cotton production is slightly lower than expected and the price range has moved up slightly [8][19]. Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In September 2025, fresh apple exports were about 7.08 tons, up 3.50% month - on - month and down 6.32% year - on - year. As of November 5, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 698.42 tons, 14.14% lower than the same period last year. As of November 6, 2025, it was 682.74 tons, 17.05% lower than last year [20]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the purchase of late - maturing bagged Fuji is in the final stage, and small and medium - sized fruits have started to be shipped out. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage fruits have started to be packed and shipped out [20][21]. Jujube Market As of this week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9541 tons, up 2.06% month - on - month and 131.35% year - on - year. The futures price has fallen, and attention should be paid to the purchasing enthusiasm and structure of buyers [22]. Sugar Market Brazil exported 4,204,999.20 tons of sugar in October 2025, a 13% year - on - year increase. India has allowed 150 tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season. Guangxi sugar mills are about to start crushing, but the weather may affect sugar content [2][25]. Pulp Market As of October 27, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in sample areas decreased by 1.58% month - on - month. The steam consumption of a thermal power plant in Baoding decreased, and the operating rate of household paper decreased [28]. Double - offset Paper Market In October 2025, the average theoretical gross profit margin of the double - offset paper industry was - 6.57%, down 1.38 percentage points from last month, and the decline rate narrowed month - on - month [29]. Cotton Market In September 2025, Australia's cotton exports were about 17.5 tons, down 4.4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. As of the end of October, the industrial and commercial cotton inventories increased [30][31][32]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 9159, up 1.32% [31]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 9585, down 0.05% [31]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5475, up 0.33% [31]. - Pulp 2511 closed at 4870, down 0.04% [31]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13580, unchanged [31]. Spot Market Review - Apples were at 3.75 yuan per jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.55 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Jujubes were at 9.40 yuan per kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Sugar was at 5760 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan month - on - month and down 560 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was at 5500 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 720 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was at 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 450 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Cotton was at 14844 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan month - on - month and 494 yuan year - on - year [37]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary information provided other than figures. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 1 - 5 spread is - 109, expected to oscillate downward, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [58]. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is 340, expected to oscillate within a range, with a strategy of staying on the sidelines [58]. - Sugar 1 - 5 spread is 70, expected to oscillate, with a strategy of staying on the sidelines [58]. - Cotton 1 - 5 spread is 0, expected to fluctuate within a range, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [58]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summary information provided other than figures. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apples have 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year [85]. - Jujubes have 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year [85]. - Sugar has 7663 warehouse receipts, up 281 month - on - month and down 4140 year - on - year [85]. - Pulp has 223997 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and down 157654 year - on - year [85]. - Cotton has 3294 warehouse receipts, up 281 month - on - month and up 168 year - on - year [85]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary information provided other than figures.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific investment suggestions for each metal variety: - **Copper**: Try to gradually buy on dips for Shanghai copper futures, with a short - term upside pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton and a downside support range of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - **Zinc**: Consider buying on dips and selling out - of - the - money put options. The upside pressure is around 22,800 - 23,000, and the short - term downside support is around 22,300 - 22,400 [5]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Hold long positions for Shanghai aluminum, with an upside pressure range of 21,800 - 22,000 and a downside support range of 20,800 - 21,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection. For alumina, adopt a wait - and - see approach, with an upside pressure range of 3,000 - 3,200 and a downside support range of 2,600 - 2,700. For recycled aluminum alloy, take a bullish view, with an upside pressure range of 21,500 - 22,000 and a downside support range of 20,500 - 20,800 [6]. - **Tin**: Adopt a bullish view on range - bound fluctuations. The upside pressure range is 290,000 - 300,000, and the downside support range is 260,000 - 270,000. Consider buying out - of - the money put options for protection [7]. - **Lead**: Continue to use the strategy of selling both call and put options in a wide - range. The short - term downside support is around 17,300 - 17,400, and the upside pressure is around 17,500 - 17,600 [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, consider selling out - of - the money put options and pay attention to whether the volatility rebounds from a low level. The upside pressure is around 120,000 - 121,000 yuan, and the downside support is around 118,000 - 120,000 yuan. For stainless steel, it is in a range - bound consolidation. The support level is around 12,400 - 12,500, and the upside pressure is around 12,800 - 13,000 [9]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall upward - trending pattern of the non - ferrous metal sector remains unchanged. The expectation of the end of the US government shutdown boosts market risk appetite, and China's PPI turning positive for the first time also drives the rebound of industrial products. Non - ferrous metals show a fluctuating recovery [12]. - In the short term, risk assets were under pressure last week due to the economic slowdown in the US and China and the tightening of US dollar liquidity. However, after the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, market risk appetite increased, and the tightness of US dollar liquidity is expected to ease. China's inflation data in October improved, and the Shanghai copper market rebounded during the day [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, the siphon effect of the US market still exists, making it difficult to solve the structural contradiction of global copper inventory. China's fixed - asset investment growth rate turned negative in the first three quarters, and external pressure is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, the macro - level is expected to take further measures to boost copper demand. With the increase in smelter maintenance and the tightening of raw material supply, China's electrolytic copper production is expected to decline continuously in the fourth quarter. As copper demand enters the seasonal peak season, China's copper inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the copper price center is expected to rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The overall upward - trending pattern of the non - ferrous metal sector remains unchanged. The possible end of the US government shutdown and China's PPI turning positive boost market risk appetite. Copper, aluminum, and tin are relatively strong, alumina has a strong willingness to rebound, lead and zinc are rising slowly, and nickel and stainless steel are bottom - grinding. Pay attention to the fundamental resonance driving changes [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: Pay attention to China's retail sales, real estate development investment, and social financing data. Also, pay attention to whether the US government shutdown situation changes and whether CPI and PPI data are released as scheduled [12]. - **Variety Strategies**: Each metal variety has its own supply - demand situation, price range, and investment strategies, as detailed in the investment rating section above [4][5][6][7][8][9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Market Review - Copper closed at 86,480 yuan with a 0.63% increase; zinc closed at 22,670 yuan with a 0.22% decrease; aluminum closed at 21,725 yuan with a 0.46% increase; alumina closed at 2,829 yuan with a 1.65% increase; tin closed at 286,560 yuan with a 1.08% increase; lead closed at 17,505 yuan with a 0.49% increase; nickel closed at 119,680 yuan with a 0.20% increase; stainless steel closed at 12,605 yuan with a 0.32% increase; and cast aluminum alloy closed at 21,105 yuan with a 0.45% increase [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different net long - short positions and changes, affected by factors such as the increase of long - position main players, the decrease of short - position main players, and non - main - force capital influence [18]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy, are provided [19][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Industry Chain - For each metal variety, there are corresponding charts showing inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc., such as copper's exchange inventory change and copper concentrate refining fee; zinc's inventory change and zinc concentrate processing fee change; etc. [24][27] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Arbitrage - There are charts showing the arbitrage - related data of each metal variety, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio change and the premium - discount between Shanghai copper and London copper; zinc's Shanghai - London ratio change and LME zinc spot premium - discount; etc. [56][57] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Options - There are charts showing the option - related data of each metal variety, such as copper's option historical volatility and weighted implied volatility; zinc's historical volatility and option weighted implied volatility; etc. [72][74]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall shock - upward pattern of the non - ferrous sector remains unchanged. After key events, the macro focus has shifted from macro narratives to real - world demand, causing an adjustment. With the dollar index stabilizing after a rebound, non - ferrous metals have shown a warming trend again. [11] - In the short term, factors such as the strong dollar, high copper prices, and weak manufacturing data are negative for copper prices. In the long run, the supply of copper concentrates is tight, and domestic copper demand will enter a seasonal peak season, so the copper price center is expected to move up. [3][13] - Zinc shows a fluctuating rebound trend. The supply growth of zinc ingots is gradually realized, and the demand in the peak season is still relatively weak. [14] - The aluminum industry chain presents a complex situation. Aluminum shows a shock - strengthening trend, while alumina is weak, and the peak - season driving force of related sub - sectors is gradually weakening. [14] - Tin is in a state of range - bound shock. The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the demand in traditional consumer electronics and other fields remains weak. [15] - Lead is in a state of shock - consolidation. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand for lead - acid batteries has declined. [15] - Nickel and stainless steel are in a state of range - bound adjustment. The supply of nickel is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The stainless - steel market is in a weak shock situation. [15][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: After key events, the macro focus has shifted to real - world demand, causing an adjustment in non - ferrous metals. With the dollar index stabilizing after a rebound, non - ferrous metals have shown a warming trend. There are different economic trends in the US, China, and the Eurozone. [11] - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: In the short term, factors such as the strong dollar, high copper prices, and weak manufacturing data are negative for copper prices. In the long run, due to supply constraints and seasonal demand peaks, copper prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with a support range of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton. [3][13] - **Zinc**: Zinc shows a fluctuating rebound. The supply growth of zinc ingots is gradually realized, and the demand in the peak season is still relatively weak. The recommended strategy is to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 21,800 - 22,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton. [14] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum shows a shock - strengthening trend, alumina is weak, and the peak - season driving force of related sub - sectors is gradually weakening. The recommended strategy is to be bullish on aluminum, short alumina on highs, and be bullish on the aluminum industry chain. [14] - **Tin**: Tin is in a state of range - bound shock. The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the demand in traditional consumer electronics and other fields remains weak. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or be slightly bullish, with a support range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 290,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton. [15] - **Lead**: Lead is in a state of shock - consolidation. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand for lead - acid batteries has declined. The recommended strategy is to sell both call and put options, with a support range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,800 - 18,000 yuan/ton. [15] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel are in a state of range - bound adjustment. The supply of nickel is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The stainless - steel market is in a weak shock situation. The recommended strategy is to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 118,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton for nickel and 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton for stainless steel, and a pressure range of 125,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton for nickel and 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton for stainless steel. [15][16] Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Situation**: The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are presented, such as copper at 86,320 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase, and aluminum at 21,630 yuan/ton with a 1.10% increase. [16] Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - **Position Analysis**: The net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, and changes in net long and short positions of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, along with the influencing factors. [19] Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, such as the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price at 85,990 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price at 22,510 yuan/ton with no change. [20] Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Relevant charts are provided to show the inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel in the industry chain. [22][24][27] Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Relevant charts are provided to show the arbitrage - related data such as the ratio of domestic to foreign prices, basis, and price differences of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel. [46][48][51] Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Relevant charts are provided to show the historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio of options for copper, zinc, and aluminum. [64][66][68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific investment suggestions for each metal: - Copper: Recommended to gradually buy on dips, with a short - term pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton and support range of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [3]. - Zinc: Consider buying on dips and selling out - of - the - money put options. The upper pressure is around 22,800 - 23,000, and short - term support is around 22,300 - 22,400 [4]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: For aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; for alumina, short positions should be held cautiously; for recycled aluminum alloy, take a bullish approach [5]. - Tin: Suggested to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 290,000 - 300,000 and a support range of 260,000 - 270,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - Lead: Consider a double - selling option strategy, with short - term support around 17,300 - 17,400 and upper pressure around 17,800 - 18,000 [8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, wait and see the support at the lower range and consider selling out - of - the - money put options on dips; for stainless steel, it is in a weak shock, with support around 12,500 - 12,600 and upper pressure around 13,000 - 13,200 [9]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall upward trend of the non - ferrous sector remains unchanged, but the weak manufacturing data in China and the US and the uncertainty of interest rate cuts have affected the upward pace of non - ferrous metals. The recent rebound of the US dollar index has put pressure on risk assets [12]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations. For example, copper has supply constraints and is expected to enter a demand peak season; zinc has a strong mine end and weak demand; aluminum has production capacity changes and a transition from peak to off - peak season; tin has supply shortages and limited demand recovery; lead has supply recovery and demand decline; nickel and stainless steel have weak supply - demand fundamentals [14][15][16][17][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The overall non - ferrous sector is still in an upward trend, but the focus has shifted from macro - narrative to real demand. The weak manufacturing data in China and the US and the uncertainty of interest rate cuts have affected the upward pace. The rebound of the US dollar index has put pressure on risk assets. The voices of the Fed officials after the October resolution are divided on interest rate cuts [12]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal**: See the content in the "Report Industry Investment Rating" section above [3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Copper closed at 85,670 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.08%; zinc closed at 22,650 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.09%; aluminum closed at 21,395 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.33%; alumina closed at 2,772 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.07%; tin closed at 282,090 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.58%; lead closed at 17,475 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34%; nickel closed at 120,030 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.28%; stainless steel closed at 12,535 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.08%; cast aluminum alloy closed at 20,830 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.62% [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report provides the latest position analysis of non - ferrous metals, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, net long - position changes, net short - position changes, and influencing factors of various varieties such as Shanghai lead, industrial silicon, alumina, etc. [21][22]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report lists the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report presents various charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc. For example, for copper, there are charts of exchange copper inventory changes and LME copper inventory; for zinc, there are charts of zinc inventory changes and zinc concentrate processing fee changes [25][27]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report shows various charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio changes, the spread between Shanghai copper and London copper, zinc's Shanghai - London ratio changes, etc. [54][56]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides various charts related to non - ferrous metals options, such as copper option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, etc. [72][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of the non - ferrous metals sector is still oscillating upwards, but the upward rhythm is affected by manufacturing data fluctuations and the uncertainty of interest - rate cut expectations [11]. - For copper, short - term factors such as China's manufacturing PMI decline are negative, but in the medium - to - long - term, the improvement of the US manufacturing PMI, the supply pressure on the raw material side, and the seasonal increase in domestic demand are expected to drive up the copper price [3][12]. - Zinc shows a fluctuating rebound, with the mine end being strong and the downstream acceptance slightly improving [4][12]. - The aluminum industry chain is generally in an oscillating state. Aluminum shows an oscillatingly strong trend, alumina oscillates and consolidates, and cast aluminum alloy is also oscillatingly strong [13]. - Tin is expected to be oscillatingly strong due to supply constraints and a slight improvement in demand [13][14]. - Lead is in an oscillating consolidation state, with supply gradually recovering and demand weakening [14]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in an oscillating state. Nickel has high inventory pressure, and stainless steel is in a weak supply - demand situation [8][14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is still in an oscillating upward trend, but the upward rhythm is affected by manufacturing data and interest - rate cut uncertainties. After the October Fed decision, there are different views on interest - rate cuts among Fed officials. China's manufacturing PMI in October shows fluctuations [11]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: Oscillating upward. Suggested to buy on dips, with a support range of 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 89000 - 90000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Zinc**: Fluctuating rebound. Suggested to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 21800 - 22000 and a pressure range of 22800 - 23000 [4][12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is bullish, alumina is short - term bearish and long - term bullish, and cast aluminum alloy is bullish. Different support and pressure ranges are provided for each [13]. - **Tin**: Oscillatingly strong. Suggested to take a bullish approach, with a support range of 260000 - 270000 and a pressure range of 290000 - 300000 [13]. - **Lead**: Oscillating consolidation. Suggested to use an option double - selling strategy, with a support range of 17300 - 17500 and a pressure range of 17800 - 18000 [14]. - **Nickel**: Range - bound. Suggested to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 118000 - 120000 and a pressure range of 125000 - 128000 [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating. Suggested to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 12500 - 12600 and a pressure range of 13000 - 13200 [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are presented, such as copper closing at 87300 with a 0.33% increase, and zinc closing at 22565 with a 0.94% increase [15]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis - A chart of the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is provided, but no specific content is described [16]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, for example, the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price is 87080 yuan/ton with a - 0.68% change [19]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Multiple charts related to the non - ferrous metals industry chain are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [20][23][25][32][40][45][51]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Multiple charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage are provided, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the LME zinc spot premium [55][57]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - Multiple charts related to non - ferrous metals options are provided, including historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume and open - interest changes of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [71][73][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of imported beans has increased, and it is expected that the prices of bean products will bottom out and rebound. Specifically, the price centers of CBOT soybeans, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, and soybean oil are expected to move slightly upward in November, while the price of soybean No. 1 is expected to operate within a narrow range [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 International Bean Market Analysis 3.1.1 CBOT Soybean Market - In 2025, the price of CBOT soybeans fluctuated. It was affected by factors such as USDA reports, South American weather, planting area adjustments, and biodiesel policies. In October, the price found strong support at 1000 cents per bushel and then rallied. It is expected to stabilize above 1100 cents per bushel in November and continue to rise slightly [15][16][108]. - The net non - commercial long positions in CBOT soybeans indicate strong bullish sentiment, and the price is expected to remain strong [19]. - There is a risk of La Nina, which is expected to last until December 2025 - February 2026 and may transition to an ENSO neutral state in 2026 [29]. - The current good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is lower than last year's level, and it is expected that the high - yield estimate of 53.5 bushels per acre will be revised downwards, which will support the price of CBOT soybeans [33]. - The old - crop inventory of US soybeans has decreased, and the new - crop planting area has been reduced. The new - crop supply - demand balance is expected to tighten, which is bullish for CBOT soybeans [40][54]. - The US soybean crushing volume has reached record highs, indicating strong domestic demand [44]. - The US soybean crushing profit has decreased compared to the same period last year, while the soybean crushing profit in Brazil's Mato Grosso state has increased compared to the same period last year. Brazil's soybean crushing profit is good, and the basis is expected to remain firm [49]. 3.1.2 South American Bean Market - Brazil's soybean planting progress is in line with the same period last year, and the harvest area is expected to increase. Brazil's soybean production has been increasing in recent years, which competes with US soybeans. The export potential of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the supply - demand balance is expected to be more relaxed [62][66][70]. - Argentina's soybean supply - demand balance has tightened slightly this year, and the government's tariff policy has an impact on the international bean market [77]. - The basis of South American soybeans is expected to remain firm due to factors such as reduced export potential in Brazil and good domestic crushing profits [81]. 3.1.3 Global Bean and Oilseed Market - Global oilseed production has been increasing, mainly driven by the continuous increase in South American soybean production [85]. - The US biodiesel policy has uncertainties, and there is a risk that the policy may not be fully implemented, which may affect the demand for US soybeans [97]. - The global soybean supply - demand balance shows that the inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased in the 2025/26 season due to the expected decline in US soybean production and strong demand, which is bullish for global bean prices [101]. 3.2 Domestic Bean Market Analysis 3.2.1 Dalian Commodity Exchange Bean Futures Market - The price of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal has fluctuated. In 2025, it was affected by factors such as US soybean production, South American supply, and biodiesel policies. Currently, the price is supported by increased import costs, but the upward momentum is weak. It is expected to trade in a narrow range around 3000 - 3100 yuan per ton in November [114][219]. - The price of DCE soybean oil has also fluctuated. Although the current inventory is at a historical high, the expected reduction in oilseed imports in the fourth quarter and the slowdown in palm oil inventory accumulation are expected to support the price, and it is expected to stop falling and rise after recent adjustments [8][120]. - The price of DCE soybean No. 1 has been affected by factors such as domestic production, purchase sentiment, and Sino - US trade negotiations. It is expected to operate in a narrow range in November [8][201]. - The price of DCE soybean No. 2 is expected to rise slightly in November due to increased import costs, while the commercial import of US soybeans is not very active due to negative crushing margins [8][209]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bean Supply and Demand - The profit of domestic soybean crushing has narrowed, which may reduce the enthusiasm of oil mills for importing soybeans and limit the downward space of downstream oil and meal prices [129]. - In the third quarter, the arrival of South American soybeans increased, and the inventory of coastal soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil has accumulated. Currently, the export potential of Brazilian soybeans has declined, and the basis is high. The willingness of oil mills to actively import US soybeans is weak due to poor crushing margins [132]. - As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 973.1 million tons, the domestic main oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 105.46 million tons, and the national key - area commercial soybean oil inventory was 125.03 million tons [137][141][149]. - The import volume of domestic soybean oil has decreased due to high inventory, and the impact on domestic prices is limited. The import volume of domestic soybean meal is very small and has little impact on domestic prices [152][154]. 3.2.3 Domestic Feed and Livestock Market - The profit of pig farming is poor, the growth rate of the sow inventory has slowed down, the inventory of laying hens has stopped increasing and adjusted, and the demand for soybean meal in the feed industry is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter [164][171][175]. 3.3 Bean Operation Opportunity Analysis No relevant content provided. 3.4 Seasonal Analysis and Market Judgment - Each type of bean product has different price trends and influencing factors in different seasons. Overall, the prices of bean products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, import costs, and policies. In November, it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as US soybean exports, biodiesel policies, and the progress of South American soybean planting [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Palm oil is expected to bottom out first and then strengthen as it is about to enter the production - reduction season. The short - term trend is slightly weak and bottom - building, while the medium - to - long - term trend is upward. The support level of the palm oil main 01 contract is around 8500 - 8600, and the resistance level is around 9300 - 9350. For options, consider selling out - of - the - money put options with a strike price 2 - 3 steps away [1][113]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Futures Market Review - Factors affecting palm oil prices include the promotion of Indonesia's B40 policy, Sino - Canadian trade relations, changes in palm oil's cost - effectiveness, production and inventory in the origin, international crude oil prices, and the US biodiesel policy. These factors have led to fluctuations in palm oil prices, including price increases, decreases, and continuous weakening [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic and International Supply - Demand Situation 3.2.1 Production - Malaysian palm oil production: High - frequency data shows continuous production increases. From the 1st to the 20th of October, production increased by 10.77% compared to the same period in September. From the 1st to the 25th of October, the yield per unit area increased by 1.63% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.78% month - on - month. However, due to environmental regulations, land constraints, and an aging tree population, the growth rate of the planting area has slowed down, and overall production is below 20 million tons. The production increase season window is narrowing, and production may not continue to rise after November [12][13]. - Indonesian palm oil production: As of August 2025, the crude palm oil production reached 35.65 million tons, a 13% increase year - on - year. The total palm oil production, including palm kernel oil, was 39.03 million tons, also a 13% increase year - on - year. It is estimated that the annual production will increase by about 10%, reaching 56 - 57 million tons [18]. 3.2.2 Consumption - Indonesian palm oil consumption: From January to August 2025, the cumulative consumption was 16.406 million tons, a 5.37% increase year - on - year. Among them, edible consumption was 6.579 million tons, a 1.29% decrease year - on - year, and biodiesel consumption was 8.343 million tons, a 12.42% increase year - on - year. It is expected that if B50 is implemented in 2026, biodiesel consumption will increase by about 3.5 million tons [33][37]. - Domestic palm oil consumption: The cost - effectiveness of palm oil is poor, and the spot and futures price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil are inverted. As a result, palm oil consumption remains at a basic level, and its market share is occupied by competing oils such as soybean oil [74][78]. 3.2.3 Export - Indonesian palm oil export: From January to August 2025, export revenue increased by 43% year - on - year to $24.79 billion, and export volume increased by 15% year - on - year to 22.69 million tons, supported by improved production and stronger global palm oil prices [41]. - Malaysian palm oil export: From October 1st to 25th, 2025, the export volume was 1.2838 million tons, a 0.36% decrease month - on - month, with average export performance [45]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Malaysian palm oil inventory: It shows a seasonal inventory build - up trend, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. However, as the production increase season window narrows, the inventory build - up speed may slow down [59]. - Indonesian palm oil inventory: Due to strong biodiesel consumption and good export demand, the inventory is at a low level [59]. - Domestic palm oil inventory: The inventory build - up trend has slowed down. The inventory has risen from a previous low level, and the basis is under pressure [84]. 3.3 Third Part: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet No specific balance sheet data and analysis content are provided in the text. 3.4 Fourth Part: Seasonal and Technical Analysis 3.4.1 Technical Analysis - The recent top pattern of palm oil futures prices has formed, and the moving averages have turned into a short - term bearish arrangement, showing a bearish trend in technical analysis [102]. 3.4.2 Seasonal Analysis No specific seasonal analysis content is provided in the text. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures and Options Future Market Outlook - Short - term: Slightly weak and bottom - building. - Medium - to - long - term: Upward. Pay attention to the inventory situation of Indonesian palm oil, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and international crude oil prices. For options, consider selling out - of - the - money put options with a strike price 2 - 3 steps away [113].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The price center of Shanghai Copper is expected to move up as the financial and commodity attributes of copper resonate. The copper market in October 2025 showed a collective upward trend, with both LME Copper and Shanghai Copper hitting record highs. The inflow of funds into the copper market and the repair of the copper - gold ratio drove the price increase. In the fourth quarter, the macro - level is favorable for copper prices, and the supply - demand pattern will turn to supply - weak and demand - strong, which is expected to push the price of Shanghai Copper to continuously set new historical highs [8][122]. Summary by Directory 1. Global Macro and Copper Market - **Domestic Macro Policy**: China's GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 was 1015036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The manufacturing industry showed good growth, and the profit of industrial enterprises increased significantly. The manufacturing PMI is expected to break through the boom - bust line in the fourth quarter. The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of copper in future industries. The Fed's new round of interest - rate cuts provides conditions for China's macro - policy to exert force again in the fourth quarter, which is generally favorable for copper prices [13][14]. - **Domestic Re - inflation Logic**: Since the third quarter, the macro - level has shifted to trading the re - inflation logic. Although the real - estate data is weak, copper and the CSI 300 index continue to rise. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the re - inflation logic is expected to be further strengthened, which is beneficial to copper prices [17]. - **US Manufacturing**: The US manufacturing industry is expanding at an accelerating pace and is about to enter the inventory - replenishment cycle. The US has a large potential for copper demand growth in the future, and its market increment will be the main marginal variable affecting copper prices [23]. 2. Copper Supply Situation Analysis - **Mine - end Supply**: Globally, the supply of copper mines has been loose since the second quarter but showed a turning point in September. The accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia will affect the supply. It is expected that the global copper concentrate output will increase by about 2% in 2025, with a gap of about 300,000 metal tons. The supply shortage at the mine end will be transmitted to the smelting end, and the domestic refined copper output is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [28][35]. - **Refined Copper Production**: Although the supply of domestic copper concentrates has been tight this year, the output of electrolytic copper increased in the first half of the year and reached a historical high in the third quarter. However, in September, the output decreased due to factors such as increased maintenance and shortage of anode supply. It is expected that the output will continue to decline in the fourth quarter [37]. - **Scrap Copper and Anode Supply**: The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened, and the supply of scrap - produced anodes is tight, which restricts the output of electrolytic copper. The import of scrap copper from the US has decreased, and the production of scrap - copper rods has decreased, further affecting the supply of anodes [43]. - **Electrolytic Copper Trade**: In 2025, the export and import of electrolytic copper in China changed due to the US tariff policy. After the US imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper products, the export of electrolytic copper decreased, and the import increased. It is expected that the export will further decline in the fourth quarter, while the import may continue to rise moderately [46]. 3. Copper Demand Situation Analysis - **Domestic Copper Products Output**: The output of domestic copper products was strong in the first three quarters, and it is expected to reach a new high in the fourth quarter. The output of copper rods increased significantly, while the output of copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips showed different trends. The output of copper foils increased against the trend, and the demand for power grid investment remained high [52]. - **Specific Demand Sectors**: - **Copper Rods**: The output of electrolytic copper rods showed a strong performance in the peak season, and it is expected to reach a high in the fourth quarter, but the downstream cable enterprises'开工 has declined [55]. - **Copper Tubes**: The output of copper tubes decreased in the second quarter and reached the lowest in August. Although it increased slightly in September, the demand in October was not as expected, and the demand in the fourth quarter is expected to be neutral [58]. - **Copper Bars**: The demand for copper bars has been at a low level throughout the year, mainly due to the weak real - estate market and high copper prices. It is expected that the demand will decline year - on - year [61]. - **Copper Strips**: The output of copper strips was lower than the average in the third quarter, and it is expected to increase slightly in the fourth quarter [64]. - **Copper Foils**: The output of copper foils increased against the trend in the third quarter, and the peak - season characteristics were prominent in October. It is expected that the output will continue to increase [71]. - **Power Grid and Power Supply Investment**: The power grid investment is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the fourth quarter, while the power supply investment has slowed down, and the copper demand from the power supply end is expected to decline [74]. - **Real - Estate**: The real - estate investment has not improved significantly and remains a drag on copper consumption [77]. - **Household Appliances**: The demand for household appliances declined in the third quarter, and it is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter [80]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The output of new energy vehicles maintained high growth, and the future demand for AI - related copper will contribute to the incremental demand [83]. 4. Copper Inventory Change Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the global copper inventory decreased, and the structural contradiction was prominent. In the third quarter, the inventory of the three major exchanges increased, mainly in the US market. In October, the total inventory of the three major exchanges continued to increase, and the structural contradiction was further highlighted. The high inventory in the US is difficult to flow out in the short term, while the non - US inventory is at a low level, which will drive the copper price up in the fourth quarter [88]. 5. Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the global copper supply - demand structure is tighter than in 2024, and the supply gap is expected to exceed 300,000 metal tons. The refined copper was in a state of oversupply in the first half of the year, and it is expected to turn to supply falling short of demand in the fourth quarter. The global electrolytic copper output is expected to increase by about 3% in 2025, while the demand growth rate is expected to exceed 4%, and the excess scale is expected to narrow [92][95]. 6. Copper Position Analysis - In the third quarter, the total position of COMEX copper futures and options increased, and the net long position increased slightly. The long - position of LME copper investment funds increased in October, which is consistent with the upward trend of copper prices [101]. 7. Arbitrage Analysis - **Copper Shanghai - London Ratio**: In the first half of the year, the Shanghai - London ratio of copper decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter. - **Copper - Zinc Ratio**: The copper - zinc ratio has continued to rise this year and reached a 10 - year high. It is expected to continue to rise in the remaining time of the year [106]. 8. Copper Option Market - The implied volatility of copper options has risen to the highest level this year, and it is suitable to sell options. It is recommended to construct a strategy of selling slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums [111]. 9. Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - **Technical Analysis**: The monthly line of the Shanghai Copper main contract has broken through, and the short - term may have fluctuations near the 90,000 - yuan integer mark. Once it breaks through, it will open up a new upward space. - **Market Outlook and Suggestions**: The commodity and metal attributes of copper are expected to drive the price up. In the fourth quarter, the price is mainly driven by the supply side, and the demand is expected to be better than in the third quarter. It is recommended that downstream demanders conduct long - hedging operations in the far - month contracts, and consider selling slightly out - of - the - money put options or constructing a short - straddle strategy in the option market [120][122].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - London gold and London silver experienced a sharp correction after accelerating their upward movement in October but remained the best - performing global asset classes this year. The decline in late October was mainly a technical correction, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remained intact [90]. - The direct driver of the precious metals' rally since late August was Powell's unexpectedly dovish speech at the global central bank meeting, followed by the Fed's consecutive interest rate cuts in September and October and the end of QT since 2022. Sticky US inflation and falling real yields on US Treasuries were positive for precious metals [90]. - Deeper concerns stemmed from the market's worries about the Fed's future independence. Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Cook challenged the Fed's independence, leading to the ineffectiveness of the Fed's forward - guidance and irreversible damage to the US dollar's credit [90]. - Since the third quarter, long - term interest rates in major global economies have risen uncontrollably, approaching a global debt crisis. US Treasuries are no longer considered a safe - haven asset, and the US dollar index is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, leading to the return of the traditional monetary attributes of gold and silver [90]. - Gold and silver are being re - defined as anti - inflation, risk assets, and important components of global asset allocation, with a surge in investment demand [90]. - In the remaining part of the year, the precious metals market is expected to consolidate, with volatility gradually decreasing, in preparation for the next upward movement. In the medium - to - long - term, silver is undervalued compared to gold and likely to have stronger upward potential [90]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Market Review Gold - In October, the global gold market accelerated its upward movement, then retreated after hitting a high. The Shanghai gold futures contract briefly exceeded 1,000 yuan/gram, and London gold neared $4,400/ounce. However, it later suffered a significant one - day drop, with London gold falling over 6% and breaking below $4,000 and $3,900/ounce, with a cumulative decline of over 10% [15]. - The decline was a technical correction of the previous rapid rise. The spot market remained relatively stable, with the world's largest gold ETF's holdings decreasing by less than 2% in late October [15]. Silver - In October, the global silver market also accelerated its upward movement, setting a new record high before falling back. The Shanghai silver futures contract exceeded 12,000 yuan/kg, and London silver approached $55/ounce, breaking the 2011 high. The year - to - date gain was over 80% [19]. - The rally was driven by both the gold price and a shortage of physical silver liquidity. After the liquidity shortage eased and the gold price corrected, the silver price dropped rapidly. The decline was also a technical correction, and the physical market remained relatively optimistic, with the SLV silver holdings decreasing by less than 4% in late October [19]. Part 2: Macro Logic Manufacturing Reshoring and the Decline of the US Dollar's Reserve Currency Status - The US dollar index has been in a downward trend since the beginning of the year, and the market consensus on its medium - to - long - term decline has been strengthened. The "Sea Lake Manor Agreement" aims to rebalance trade, but it may lead to a reduction in the US dollar's global settlement share and weaken its reserve currency status [24]. - Global central banks have been accelerating the process of "de - dollarization" and increasing their gold reserves. In 2024, the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropped to 58%, a 30 - year low [24]. The Pennsylvania Plan and the US Debt Crisis - The Pennsylvania Plan aims to shift the demand for US Treasuries from external to domestic investors to stabilize the US debt market. However, it has not been very effective so far, and long - term US Treasury demand remains weak [25]. Digital Currencies and the US Debt - The US has established a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins. In the short term, stablecoins may increase the demand for US Treasuries, but in the long term, they may accelerate the collapse of the US dollar's credit if the US fails to address its twin deficits [27]. Global Debt Crisis and the Flight to Precious Metals - Global debt levels are high, and major economies' sovereign credit ratings have been downgraded. Traditional credit - based monetary systems are being questioned, leading to an inflow of funds into precious metals and cryptocurrencies [29]. - US Treasuries are no longer considered a safe - haven asset, and global central banks' gold holdings have exceeded their US Treasury holdings. As the Fed enters a new interest - rate cut cycle, central banks are expected to continue reducing their US Treasury holdings and increasing their gold reserves [32]. Shifting Asset Allocation - Global investors have been reducing their exposure to US dollar - denominated assets and increasing their allocation to non - US assets, benefiting precious metals [34]. US Economic Situation and the Fed's Policy - The US economy is still expanding, but inflation remains above the Fed's target. The Fed started a new interest - rate cut cycle in September, which is positive for precious metals [37]. - US non - farm payroll data has been disappointing, and the Fed's focus has shifted from inflation to employment. Powell's stance has turned dovish, and the market is concerned about the Fed's independence [40][43]. Redefinition of Gold - Gold is being re - defined as an anti - inflation and risk asset, and it has become an important part of global asset allocation. Global high - net - worth individuals have increased their gold allocation, driving up its price [47]. Part 3: Fundamental Logic Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central bank gold purchases slowed down in the first half of 2025 but accelerated in the third quarter. Most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [52]. Gold Investment Demand - Gold investment demand has been increasing, with global gold ETFs attracting significant inflows in the third quarter. The gold market has returned to a supply - deficit situation [55]. Silver Supply and Demand - Silver supply growth has been slow due to factors such as high production costs and long project cycles. Industrial demand, especially from the photovoltaic and automotive sectors, has been driving up silver demand [58][61]. - The global silver market has been in a supply - deficit situation, and the supply - demand gap is expected to persist in the medium - to - long - term. The inventory structure shows a shortage of freely - tradable silver [64]. Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio reflects the premium of gold over silver in terms of safe - haven demand. Historically, it has been negatively correlated with copper prices. Currently, the ratio is expected to decline further, indicating more upside potential for silver [65][67]. Asset Management and ETF Holdings - COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased in the third quarter, and the world's largest gold ETF's holdings reached a new high. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased, and the SLV silver holdings declined in October [70][73]. Options Markets - Gold and silver option historical volatilities have fluctuated, and their weighted implied volatilities are currently at high levels. Strategies such as selling slightly out - of - the - money put options or selling straddles can be considered [76][79]. Technical Analysis - Gold is in a long - term bull market, and based on historical experience, it still has room for growth in both time and price. Silver usually lags behind gold in entering a bull market but has a larger cumulative increase. The technical charts of both metals show positive signals [84][87]. Part 4: Summary and Outlook - In the remaining part of the year, the precious metals market is expected to consolidate, with volatility gradually decreasing. In the medium - to - long - term, silver is undervalued compared to gold and has stronger upward potential [90]. - The price ranges for the rest of the year are estimated: London gold is expected to trade between $3,800 - 3,900/ounce and $4,100 - 4,200/ounce; Shanghai gold futures between 880 - 900 yuan/gram and 940 - 960 yuan/gram; London silver between $44 - 46/ounce and $53 - 55/ounce; and Shanghai silver futures between 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/kg and 12,000 - 12,500 yuan/kg [89].