Report Title - "Pork Futures and Options August 2025 Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy expectation has led to a reversal in the futures monthly spread. The domestic inflation expectation is expected to rise, and the pig futures price once soared. The far-month 2601 contract price has shifted to a premium structure relative to the near-month and spot prices [3]. - The marginal risk brought by tariffs will gradually decrease, and the market's extreme situation probability such as global economic recession and significant damage to commodity trade has declined. The domestic market is focusing on hedging policies, and the market is "desensitized" to Sino-US relations [3]. - The overall financial attribute of agricultural products is relatively weak, and they are less affected by the macro environment. Currently, the prices of basic agricultural products are at a historical low level, with low valuations and potential for rebound [3]. - Pig enterprises have experienced about 12 months of high-level profitability. Although the industry's absolute production capacity has not increased significantly, the production efficiency per sow has been greatly improved. With policy expectations, the overcapacity of breeding sows is unlikely [3]. - The pig price in 2025 may not be worse than that in 2023 [3]. - Regarding the pig futures price in the second half of 2025, if the macro expectation continues to strengthen, there are conditions for the undervalued commodities to have their valuations revised upwards. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the futures price is below the breeding cost of 13,500 - 14,000 points, or buy call options near the cost [4]. Summary by Directory 2025 July and August Market Review and Outlook - In July, the "anti-involution" atmosphere drove up the prices of risk assets, and the domestic inflation expectation was expected to rise. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting with leading group enterprises, emphasizing measures such as reducing the inventory of breeding sows, controlling the slaughter weight, and restricting secondary fattening, which released a policy signal to support the market [3]. - The soybean and corn prices have reached the bottom range, and it is difficult for the feed cost to continue to decrease in 2025. The current increase in production capacity is mainly reflected in the utilization efficiency rather than the absolute production capacity. The continuous improvement in efficiency has a technical bottleneck, and there is a "scar effect" among retail investors. Therefore, although the upstream of the pig industry has experienced a long period of profitability, it has not accumulated excessive risks [4]. 2025 July Pig Spot and Futures Price Review - In July, the "anti-involution" had little impact on agricultural products, and the volatility of the sector was relatively low. The pig spot and futures prices showed a divergent trend, and the "anti-involution" policy led to a surge in the futures price [6][8]. - From January to July 2025, the agricultural product index showed different trends due to various factors such as the weakening of the US dollar, tariff policies, and seasonal factors. In July, the breeding sector hit a new low [7]. - The current absolute and relative prices of pigs are at a relatively low level in history, and the ratio of pig futures to feed is close to the historical low level [10][13]. - In 2025, the piglet price in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, and the feed price fluctuated overall. The terminal consumption did not show significant improvement, but the average price of pork carcasses was higher than that in 2023. The prices of beef, mutton, poultry, eggs, vegetables, and aquatic products showed different trends [18][21][24]. - According to historical data, the pig spot price in the second quarter is prone to seasonal increases, and the price in August has a high probability of rising [39][40]. Pig Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The current inventory of breeding sows is in the green range, and the cumulative increase compared with March 2024 is about 3% [43][44]. - The capital expenditure of group enterprises has decreased significantly compared with previous years, the price of replacement gilts has been stable, and the market speculation enthusiasm has declined [45][48]. - The production efficiency per sow has increased, and the gap between leading enterprises has gradually narrowed. In May 2025, the pig slaughter volume continued to increase, but the increase may not be large [50][54][55]. Listed Pig Enterprises - The profitability of listed companies has shown significant differentiation, the monthly sales of piglets of listed companies have decreased, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies is at a historical high level [59][62][64]. Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - From July to August, the hot weather and the relatively high weight of pigs are the main risks affecting the spot price. In July, the slaughter volume rebounded significantly but was lower than the level in 2023. The import volume of pork and offal has declined from the high level, and the frozen product inventory rebounded slightly at a low level in June 2025 [68][71][73]. - The current average monthly profitability is at the historical median level, and the profit of purchasing piglets in July is close to the break - even point [79]. Pig Futures Market - In July, the futures price broke away from the spot price and soared, and the futures price has shifted to a premium relative to the spot price. The pig index rebounded from the historical low, and the trading volume and open interest increased significantly [80][81]. - The 2503 and 2505 contracts' futures prices finally rebounded from the low level to make up for the discount to the spot price, and the 2603 and 2605 contracts are near the breeding cost. The near - month contracts have shifted from a discount to a premium relative to the spot price, and the far - month contracts' premium in the peak season has widened under the policy support [84][87][90]. - The basis is stronger than in the same period of previous years. Attention should be paid to the way of the regression of the pig spot and futures prices in the third quarter, and the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage [93][96]. - The volatility of the pig 2509 contract has rebounded [102]. Pig Market Summary - In the third quarter, the macro environment may be the main driving force for the rise of the pig price. Attention should be paid to the real improvement of key consumption [104]. - In trading, it is advisable to buy the 2511 contract at low levels, or short the 2601 contract and long the 2605 contract at an appropriate time. For options, sell the wide - straddle price - spread combination when the volatility is high [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the price trends of red date futures and spot in July 2025, domestic supply - demand situation, and the impact of weather on production, and also offers a technical analysis and outlook for red date futures prices [6][29][48]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Red Date Futures and Spot Price Trends - In July 2025, red date futures prices rose first and then fell, with the open - interest at a high level since listing. The spot prices opened high and moved low, with an overall low - level oscillatory rebound. At the end of July, the premium of red date futures contracts (2509 and 2601) over the spot (standard Cangzhou special - grade) widened [6][29][35]. - The red date futures and apple futures showed a weak correlation. The monthly price changes of red date 01 contracts and spot prices over the years were presented in the form of charts [39][42][47]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2024 production season, Xinjiang's grey jujube output was 700,000 tons, an increase of 230,800 tons or 67.10% compared to the 2023 production season. It is predicted that Xinjiang's red date output in 2025 may reach around 500,000 tons [50]. - The report also showed the production data of different regions in 2024 and the inventory situation of red date spot from 2019/20 to 2024/25E [49][54]. 3.3 Pay Attention to the Weather in Producing Areas in August - The growth stages of red dates include the germination period (April), early - flowering period (May), full - flowering period (May - June), young - fruit period (May - June), rapid fruit - growth period (July - August), maturity period (September - October), leaf - falling period (November), and dormancy period (November - March of the next year) [58]. - Abnormal weather such as late spring cold, summer high - temperature and drought, strong winds, continuous rainstorms, and physiological diseases (such as fruit cracking) can affect red date production and quality. In August, attention should be paid to the occurrence of "dry - hot wind" and rainstorms in the producing areas [60][61][68]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Future Outlook of Red Date Futures Prices - A technical analysis and future outlook of red date futures prices (rebounding from the historical bottom range) were provided, but specific content was not detailed in the given text [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity and fresh fruit sectors show complex market trends. In the soft commodity sector, sugar prices are expected to be volatile, pulp prices may adjust, and cotton prices may be weak. In the fresh fruit sector, apple prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and jujube prices may be affected by weather and consumption factors [3][4][6][7]. - Due to factors such as changes in the supply and demand of underlying products, international market conditions, and policy expectations, different trading strategies are recommended for each variety, including interval operation, option strategies, and short - term empty allocation [3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2510: Adopt a bearish approach. The fundamental changes are limited, and the sentiment has ebbed. The support range is 7300 - 7400, and the pressure range is 8200 - 8300 [7][16]. - Jujube 2601: Hold long positions. The overall sentiment of commodities is strengthening, and jujubes enter the production - forming period in the third quarter, which is prone to weather premium. The support range is 10200 - 10400, and the pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2509: Short - term band operation. There are both long and short factors, and the upward pressure on futures prices is significant. The support range is 5740 - 5760, and the pressure range is 5880 - 5900 [3][16]. - Pulp 2507: Light - position short allocation. The fundamentals change little. After the market sentiment cools down, pulp prices may adjust, but the probability of falling to the June low is low. The support range is 5200 - 5250, and the pressure range is 5550 - 5600 [4][5][16]. - Cotton 2509: Exit long positions. The previous bearish factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices affect the market. The support range is 13200 - 13300, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [6][7][16]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information** - In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55% [17]. - As of July 30, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 616,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 88,400 tons. As of July 31, it was 576,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 410,500 tons [17]. - Different institutions have different estimates of apple production. Zhuochuang estimates a slight reduction, while Steel Union estimates a slight increase [17]. - **Spot Market** - The price of cold - storage apples in the production area remained stable this week. After the high - price opening of early - maturing apples, the transaction price declined. The sales volume of cold - storage apples in the sales area slightly increased, and the price remained stable [18][19]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of July 25, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 73.07%. The inventory in the Hebei market decreased, and the price of good - quality products increased. The price in the Guangdong market remained stable [20]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market Consulting firm StoneX lowered Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 40.16 million tons, a decrease of 1.64 million tons from the May forecast. The spot price of sugar in China remained stable [22]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The price of imported bleached softwood pulp was stable, and the price of bleached hardwood pulp decreased by $10/ton in July compared to June. The fundamentals of the pulp and paper industry chain changed little [4][25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market - India's new - season cotton sowing progress is behind last year, with the sown area as of July 25 being 10.3 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.0% compared to the same period last year [26]. - Pakistan imposed an 18% sales tax on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton grey cloth [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2510 closed at 7814, down 101, or 1.28%. - Jujube 2509 closed at 9580, down 60, or 0.62%. - Sugar 2509 closed at 5793, down 11, or 0.19%. - Pulp 2509 closed at 5232, down 94, or 1.76%. - Cotton 2509 closed at 13650, down 105, or 0.76% [27]. - **Spot Market Review** - The spot price of apples was 3.90 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period and down 0.25 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan from the previous period and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of sugar was 6030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous period and down 520 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous period and down 120 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of cotton was 15325 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan from the previous period and down 95 yuan year - on - year [30]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis content is provided, only the figure numbers are given, such as Figure 14 for the basis of Apple 10th month [38]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - Apple 10 - 1 spread is 67, down 33 from the previous period and up 10 year - on - year, expected to fluctuate repeatedly, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [47]. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is - 1115, down 1165 from the previous period and down 775 year - on - year, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [47]. - Sugar 9 - 1 spread is 138, unchanged from the previous period and down 193 year - on - year, expected to be weak within a range, and the recommended strategy is to go long on 01 and short on 09 [47]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation Only the figure numbers for the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes of each variety are provided, without specific data analysis [56][58][63]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple's warehouse receipt volume is 0, unchanged from the previous period and year - on - year. - Jujube's warehouse receipt volume is 8739, unchanged from the previous period and down 2131 year - on - year. - Sugar's warehouse receipt volume is 19473, down 47 from the previous period and up 3357 year - on - year. - Pulp's warehouse receipt volume is 254637, down 340 from the previous period and down 246468 year - on - year. - Cotton's warehouse receipt volume is 8940, down 115 from the previous period and down 2400 year - on - year [77]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data Only the figure numbers for option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of each variety are provided, without specific data analysis [79][81][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The exemption of tariffs on imported refined copper in the US will significantly change the global copper trade flow in the second half of the year, with copper resources shifting to non - US markets. The supply - demand fundamentals of Shanghai copper are expected to become looser [4]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with imports and processing fees rising, and downstream demand weakening [5]. - The aluminum industry chain is in a weak market sentiment. Aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy are all recommended to be treated with a short - selling mindset [6]. - The tin price is suppressed by the correction of the non - ferrous sector, with weak fundamentals [7]. - The lead price is under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the driving force of the peak season and macro - orientation [8][9]. - The nickel market has an overall oversupply pattern, and the stainless steel market is affected by the black series and the weakness of nickel, with both supply and demand being weak [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector fluctuates with the profit - taking in the domestic anti - involution stage. The trade situation is gradually becoming clear, and the non - ferrous metals are in a weak adjustment stage. Key events this week include Sino - US trade negotiations, the Fed's interest rate decision, and important economic data releases [13][14][15]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Metal** - **Copper**: The supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be loose. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a support range of 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [4][16]. - **Zinc**: Supply increases while demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies, with a support range of 21,600 - 21,800 and a pressure range of 22,800 - 23,100 [5][18]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The market sentiment is weak. Short - selling is recommended for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, with corresponding support and pressure ranges [6][18]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold short positions, with a support range of 250,000 - 255,000 and a pressure range of 270,000 - 290,000 [7][18]. - **Lead**: It is in a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 16,600 - 16,800 and a pressure range of 17,200 - 17,400 [9][19]. - **Nickel**: The supply is in an oversupply pattern. It is recommended to go short on rallies, with a support range of 115,000 - 116,000 and a pressure range of 122,000 - 123,000 [10][19]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is in a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to be short - biased, with a support range of 12,300 - 12,400 and a pressure range of 12,800 - 13,000 [10][19]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices and Price Changes**: Copper closed at 78,040 with a decline of 1.13%; zinc at 22,345 with a decline of 1.43%; aluminum at 20,510 with a decline of 0.56%; alumina at 3222 with a decline of 3.13%; tin at 265,290 with a decline of 0.96%; lead at 16,735 with a decline of 0.92%; nickel at 119,830 with a decline of 1.55%; stainless steel at 12,805 with a decline of 0.89%; and cast aluminum alloy at 19,950 with a decline of 0.60% [20][21]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report provides the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the net long - short position changes and the influence of different forces on various varieties [23]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report presents the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [24][26]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report includes various charts related to the industry chain of each metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends, which help to understand the supply - demand relationship and market conditions of each metal [27][31][33]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides charts on the arbitrage relationships of various non - ferrous metals, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spreads between different contracts [57][60][62]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report includes charts related to the options of various non - ferrous metals, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [74][75][77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market's bullish sentiment has receded, but there is strong support below the 70,000 yuan mark. Downstream demand remains cautious, and there are concerns about weakening long - term demand. However, short - term inventory reduction and demand - side restocking may support prices [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by the Politburo meeting and exchange announcements, the market is driven by news. With the recovery of production and uncertain inventory trends, the market may fluctuate, and the policy support effect is yet to be verified [6][7]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term speculative sentiment is high, and the market is driven by news. There is a possibility of price regression to fundamentals, and short - term price correction risks should be watched out for [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Prices 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 09 | News - driven market | 65,000 - 66,000 | 78,000 - 83,000 | Oscillate strongly | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stocking or buying hedging [15] | | Industrial Silicon 09 | News - driven market | 8,500 - 8,600 | 9,900 - 10,000 | Bidirectional fluctuation | Consider selling put/call options at low/high levels [15] | | Polysilicon 09 | News - driven market | 45,000 - 46,000 | 55,000 - 56,000 | Bidirectional fluctuation | Consider selling put/call options at low/high levels [15] | 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 68,280 | - 3.29% | 521,849 | 229,368 | - 43,385 | 5,545 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,760 | - 5.65% | 410,371 | 212,932 | - 29,745 | 50,644 | | Polysilicon | 49,130 | - 7.81% | 565,838 | 126,989 | - 37,501 | 3,200 [16] | 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the production of carbonate lithium was 17,268 tons, a decrease of 1,362 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons, the first decrease after eight consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [4]. - **Downstream**: Downstream inquiry activity has increased, but actual transactions have not increased proportionally. Downstream buyers are still cautious, mainly making purchases for rigid demand [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The resumption of production by manufacturers is accelerating, and production is expected to continue to rise. Short - term inventory has decreased due to improved transactions, but future inventory trends depend on transaction volume and production reduction implementation [6]. - **Downstream**: Not specifically mentioned in detail in the report. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Terminal demand is weak, and enterprise inventories are at a high level, which will form selling hedging pressure on the market. The full - cost "policy red line" provides strong support [8][9]. - **Downstream**: Not specifically mentioned in detail in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Report's Core View - **Soybean Oil**: The improvement of weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US has led to a decline in US soybeans, dragging down domestic beans. There is no obvious progress in soybean imports from the Sino - US economic and trade talks. The export of about one million tons of soybean oil from China, fewer oilseed purchases in the fourth quarter, and an increase in direct imports of protein meal are expected to converge the oil mill's profit, which is beneficial to the price of oils. It is recommended to buy on dips for the soybean oil 2601 contract. Support is at 8000 - 8030 yuan/ton, and resistance is at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Since July, the procurement and arrival of rapeseed in China have decreased, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory has declined from its high. However, it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. With fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter, there is an expectation of future inventory reduction. The import profit of new - crop rapeseed is okay, but the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations remains. It is advisable to trade within a range, buy on dips, and exit long positions at high levels. Support is at 9300 - 9330, and resistance is at 9683 - 9790 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows good production of Malaysian palm oil but weak export demand, increasing the inventory pressure in July. The willingness of the origin to support prices has weakened, improving the domestic import profit and increasing domestic inventory. The upward momentum of the futures price has weakened, with a short - term need for shock adjustment. Indonesia's palm oil production is lower than expected, and its inventory is at a low level. The US biodiesel policy is beneficial to the long - term demand for US soybean oil. From the perspective of the international soybean - palm oil price difference, palm oil is cost - effective, and there is restocking demand from India and China. There is support below the futures price. Indonesia is preparing for the B50 biodiesel test, potentially beneficial to the long - term price. It is recommended to buy on dips. Support is at 8704 - 8796, and resistance is at 9480 - 9490 [4]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: There is no obvious progress in soybean imports from the Sino - US economic and trade talks. The improvement of the good - rate of US soybeans and favorable weather in the main producing areas have led to a bottom - building of CBOT soybean futures prices. The increase in imports of low - priced soybean meal from Argentina and the promotion of soybean meal reduction and substitution in China have led to a continuous decline in soybean meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The support for the main soybean meal contract is at 2930 - 2950 yuan/ton, and the resistance is at 3080 - 3100 yuan/ton. The soybean No. 2 main 09 contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with resistance at 3750 - 3800 and support at 3550 - 3560 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal shows a situation of both weak supply and demand. The cost - effectiveness of rapeseed meal is poor, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the third quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. Support is at 2600 - 2621, and resistance is at 2791 - 2855 [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure from the harvest in South America and the expected increase in US corn planting area. The domestic market is in a game between the release of old - crop corn and tight supply in some areas. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. The support for the corn 09 contract is at 2250 - 2260, and the resistance is at 2430 - 2450. For the corn starch 09 contract, the support is at 2600 - 2620, and the resistance is at 2830 - 2840 [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The gradual listing of new soybeans has increased supply, suppressing domestic soybean prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the main soybean No. 1 contract. The resistance for the 09 contract is at 4250 - 4300 yuan/ton, and the support is at 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanut**: The low carry - over inventory of old - crop peanuts, the impact of the civil unrest in Sudan and the delay of port opening in Senegal on imports, and the high - level planting area and expected increase in yield of new - crop peanuts have different impacts on different contracts. It is recommended to take partial profit on short positions near the support level. The support for the 10 contract is at 8004 - 8020, and the resistance is at 8392 - 8398 [6]. - **Live Pig**: The futures price of live pigs is near - strong and far - weak. The spot price is likely to rise seasonally in August. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies for the 09 contract and wait for an opportunity to buy the 2511 contract on dips after the market cools down and the spot price rises [7]. - **Egg**: The egg 08 futures price has fallen back to the spot price, and the 09 contract has broken through the range. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling, pay attention to the positive spread between September and January, and aggressive investors can buy the 09 contract on dips. The reference range is 3500 - 3800 points [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Soybean No. 2 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see; Peanut 10 is expected to be weakly bearish, and it is recommended to take partial profit on short positions [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 is expected to be strongly bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips; Rapeseed oil 09 is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to buy on dips; Palm 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Rapeseed meal 09 is expected to be strongly bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips; Corn starch 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips [11]. - **Livestock**: Live pig 09 is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies; Egg 09 is expected to find the bottom, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - month Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see for most varieties, except for the positive spread for soybean meal 11 - 1 and the positive spread for live pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1 [12][13]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For oils, it is recommended to be bearish on 09 soybean oil - palm oil, bullish on 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and wait and see for 09 rapeseed oil - palm oil; For protein, 09 soybean meal - rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level; For the oil - meal ratio, it is recommended to go long on the 09 soybean oil - meal ratio and wait and see for the 09 rapeseed oil - meal ratio; For energy and by - products, it is recommended to wait and see for 09 starch - corn [13]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies There are data on spot prices, price changes, and basis changes for various varieties, but no specific strategies are mentioned other than the data presentation [14]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Tables a. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: There are data on the import cost of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates [16]. - **Weekly Data**: There are data on the inventory and operating rate of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: There are data on the import cost of corn from different countries and different months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: There are data on the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. c. Livestock - There are daily and weekly data on live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, production, consumption, and profit - related data [20][21][22][23][24]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: There are charts showing the closing price of the main live pig contract, the closing price of the main egg contract, spot prices, and other related data [25][28][29][34]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: There are charts showing the production, export, inventory, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [37][47][51]. - **Feed End**: There are charts showing the inventory, consumption, and profit - related data of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [55][57][59]. Part Four: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils There are charts showing the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [71][72]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils There are charts showing the warehouse receipt situation of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [74][76][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The intraday soybean oil opened higher and strengthened, mainly due to the rise in crude oil and the positive fundamentals of soybean oil itself. There has been no significant progress in the Sino - US economic and trade talks regarding soybeans, and there is no driving force for import purchases. There are reports of about one million tons of soybean oil exports from China, and fewer oilseed purchases in the fourth quarter, along with an increase in the direct import of protein meal, which is expected to narrow the oil mill's profit, thus benefiting the price of oils. Long positions in the soybean oil 2601 contract should be held. The resistance level of the soybean oil 01 contract is around 8400 - 8450, and the support level is around 8000 - 8030 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Since July, the procurement and arrival of rapeseed in China have decreased, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory has declined from its peak, but it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. The improvement in Sino - Australian trade relations may lead to an increase in rapeseed procurement from Australia, but the potential new imports may be reflected in the new crop, having a relatively limited impact on the 09 contract. There are fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. Long positions should be held, with the support at 9300 - 9330 and the resistance at 9780 - 9790. The long position in the oil - meal ratio should continue to be held [3]. - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows good palm oil production in Malaysia, but the export demand in the first 25 days of July has weakened month - on - month, increasing the inventory pressure in July and weakening the upward momentum of the futures price. The palm oil production in Indonesia is lower than expected, and the inventory is at a low level. The US biodiesel policy is beneficial to the long - term demand for US soybean oil. From the perspective of the international soybean - palm oil price difference, palm oil is cost - effective, and there is restocking demand in India and China. Low - level buying is recommended, with the support at 8704 - 8796 and the resistance at 9480 - 9490 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: There has been no significant progress in the Sino - US economic and trade talks regarding soybeans, and there is no driving force for import purchases. The good rate of US soybeans has recovered, and the main production areas have favorable weather. The direct import expectation of soybean meal has increased, reducing the crushing consumption of bean No. 2. The short - term outlook for soybean meal is bottom - building, and it is recommended to wait and see. The bean No. 2 09 contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal shows a situation of both weak supply and demand. The supply reduction is more obvious, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the third quarter. Low - level buying can be considered. Pay attention to the Sino - Australian and Sino - Canadian trade relations. Light long positions should be held, and the long position in the oil - meal ratio should be closed [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate on Wednesday. The external market fundamentals have not changed much, and the new - season US corn planting area has increased year - on - year, exerting pressure. In the domestic market, there is a contradiction between the release of old - crop grains and the tightening supply in some areas. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. For the corn 09 contract, the support range is 2250 - 2260, and the resistance range is 2430 - 2450. For the corn starch 09 contract, the support range is 2600 - 2620, and the resistance range is 2830 - 2840 [6]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of soybean No. 1 temporarily stopped falling and rebounded intraday. The supply of new domestic soybeans is gradually increasing, suppressing the price of domestic soybeans. It is recommended to wait and see. The 09 contract should pay attention to the key resistance level in the range of 4250 - 4300 yuan/ton and the support level in the range of 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanuts**: The expected carry - over inventory of old - crop peanuts is low, and the arrival of imported peanuts is scarce. The new - season peanut planting area has increased year - on - year, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest. It is recommended to partially close short positions near the support level. The support for the 10 contract is 8004 - 8020, and the resistance is 8392 - 8398 [7]. - **Hogs**: The futures price of hogs fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday. The spot price of hogs tends to rise seasonally in August. It is recommended to close long positions in the 09 contract on rallies or transfer positions to the 2511 contract. In the medium term, wait for the market to cool down and the spot price to catch up before buying the 2511 contract on dips [8]. - **Eggs**: The 08 futures price of eggs continued to fall back to the spot price on Wednesday, and the 09 contract fluctuated narrowly. The egg price is expected to seasonally rebound. It is recommended not to short aggressively. Pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage between the 9 - 1 contracts, and aggressive investors can buy the 09 contract on dips, with the reference range of 3500 - 3800 points [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Soybean No. 2 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see; Peanut 10 is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and short positions should be partially closed [12]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 is expected to rise, and long positions should be held; Rapeseed oil 09 is expected to be strongly fluctuating, and long positions should be held; Palm 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and low - level buying is recommended [12]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Rapeseed meal 09 is expected to be strongly fluctuating, and light long positions should be held [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and short positions should be reduced on dips; Corn starch 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and short positions should be reduced on dips [12]. - **Livestock Farming**: Hog 09 is expected to rebound fluctuatingly, and long positions should be reduced on rallies; Egg 09 is expected to find the bottom fluctuatingly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Oilseeds**: For the spreads of Soybean No. 1 9 - 1, Soybean No. 2 9 - 1, and Peanut 10 - 11, it is recommended to wait and see [13][14]. - **Oils**: For the spreads of Soybean oil 9 - 1, Rapeseed oil 9 - 1, and Palm oil 9 - 1, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 09 Soybean oil - Palm oil spread, short - side operation is recommended; for the 09 Rapeseed oil - Soybean oil spread, long - side operation is recommended; for the 09 Rapeseed oil - Palm oil spread, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - **Protein**: For the Soybean meal 11 - 1 spread, positive spread arbitrage is recommended; for the Rapeseed meal 9 - 1 spread, it is recommended to wait and see. The 09 Soybean meal - Rapeseed meal spread is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14]. - **Energy and By - products**: For the Corn 9 - 1 and Corn starch 9 - 1 spreads, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 09 Corn starch - Corn spread, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - **Livestock Farming**: For the Hog 9 - 1 spread, positive spread arbitrage on dips is recommended; for the Egg 9 - 1 spread, positive spread arbitrage on dips is recommended [14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, main - contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report presents the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including arrival premiums, CBOT or ICE futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, such as the port soybean inventory, oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and coastal rapeseed inventory [19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: The import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [19]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of deep - processing enterprises, are presented [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - The daily and weekly data of hogs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, price changes, production costs, profits, slaughter data, and inventory data [21][22][23][24][25]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts The report provides various charts to track the fundamentals of the livestock farming end (hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds (palm oil, soybean oil, peanuts), and feed end (corn, corn starch, rapeseed, soybean meal), such as production, consumption, inventory, and price - related charts [26][36][53]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of historical volatilities and option trading volumes and open interests of related varieties [72][73][78][79]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situations of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of warehouse receipt situations of related varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [75][77][79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Sugar**: The raw sugar futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate. In the domestic market, the spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the futures price is under pressure from imports. The 09 contract has significantly reduced positions, and the funds have moved to the 2601 contract, with the futures price continuing to fluctuate within a range [3]. - **Pulp**: After the exchange introduced policies, the market's exuberant sentiment cooled down. The fundamentals of the pulp and paper - making industry chain have changed little, and the futures price may adjust following the market sentiment. It is recommended to short - allocate lightly [4]. - **Cotton**: The external market has pressure on the price, while the domestic market is in a game between tight spot supply and weak downstream consumption. The short - term futures price may decline slightly, and it is recommended to close long positions [5][6]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuates within a range. The "anti - involution" sentiment has limited impact, and the fundamentals of the old and new seasons cannot provide clear trend guidance [7]. - **Jujubes**: The futures price is affected by emotions and shows a wide - range shock. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 2601 contract and pay attention to the weather during the fruit - setting period [8]. Summary According to the Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2510, it is recommended to short on rallies, with a support range of 7300 - 7400 and a pressure range of 8200 - 8300. For Jujube 2601, it is recommended to hold long positions, with a support range of 10200 - 10400 and a pressure range of 10500 - 11500 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2509, short - term band trading is recommended, with a support range of 5740 - 5760 and a pressure range of 5880 - 5900. For Pulp 2507, it is recommended to short - allocate lightly, with a support range of 5200 - 5250 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5600. For Cotton 2509, it is recommended to close long positions, with a support range of 13200 - 13300 and a pressure range of 14400 - 14500 [16]. Part II: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 3.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of July 16, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 tons. As of July 17, it was 73.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.03 tons. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production, with slight increases or decreases [17]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the mainstream transaction price is stable, and the trading volume is average. In the Shaanxi production area, early - maturing apples are on the market, and the coloration is average. The wholesale market has stable shipments and prices [18]. Jujube Market - As of July 25, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons. The price of good - quality jujubes in the Hebei market has increased, and the sales speed has accelerated, while the price in the Guangdong market is stable [19]. Sugar Market - India announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for August 2025 is 225 tons, an increase of 5 tons compared with July and the same period last year. The spot price in the domestic market is stable [19]. Pulp Market - Due to the rebound of the pulp futures price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the purchasing enthusiasm for imported bleached softwood pulp has increased, and the price tends to be stable. The price of imported bleached hardwood pulp has stabilized, and the domestic spot price has increased slightly. The order price of South American bleached hardwood pulp in July has decreased by $10/ton compared with June [22][24]. Cotton Market - In June 2025, the yarn production of large - scale enterprises was 206.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.84%. The cloth production was 2.78 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% and a month - on - month increase of 4.12%. As of July 28, the cotton flowering rate in Xinjiang was about 94.3%, with an increase in the number of bolls [25][26]. Part III: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | 7915 | 7 | 0.09% | | Jujube 2509 | 9640 | - 40 | - 0.41% | | Sugar 2509 | 5804 | - 63 | - 1.07% | | Pulp 2509 | 5326 | - 48 | - 0.89% | | Cotton 2509 | 13755 | - 170 | - 1.22% | [26] Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.90 | 0.00 | - 0.25 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 6050 | 0 | - 500 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5950 | 0 | - 150 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15470 | - 110 | 24 | [33] Part IV: Basis Situation No specific content provided in the summary. Part V: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 100 | - 16 | 43 | Fluctuating | Wait - and - see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 1165 | - 1110 | - 935 | Range - bound | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 9 - 1 | 138 | 2 | - 190 | Weak in the range | Long 01, short 09 | [49] Part VI: Futures Positioning Situation No specific content provided in the summary. Part VII: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8739 | 0 | - 2447 | | Sugar | 19520 | - 226 | 3404 | | Pulp | 254977 | - 122 | - 247037 | | Cotton | 9055 | - 101 | - 2385 | [72] Part VIII: Option - related Data No specific content provided in the summary.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The non - US copper market's inventory is low, and the domestic copper inventory is falling, supporting copper prices. However, the demand lacks upward drive, and the price is expected to have low volatility. For zinc, it has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak. The aluminum industry chain is bearish, and short - selling is recommended. Tin has a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - selling positions can be reduced. Lead's price fluctuates in a range, and medium - term bullishness can be considered. Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak situation, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [4][5][6][7][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector fluctuates with the domestic anti - involution profit - taking. The trade negotiation has reached many phased agreements, and the market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate decision and domestic policies. The non - ferrous market is in shock, and attention should be paid to the possible adverse impact of the trade situation and tariff increase [12][13] - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal**: - **Copper**: The COMEX copper premium may decline. The non - US market's inventory is low, and the domestic inventory is falling, supporting the price. The demand lacks upward drive, and the price is expected to have low volatility. The upper pressure range is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips [4][14] - **Zinc**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak. The upper pressure range is 22,800 - 23,100 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 21,600 - 21,800 yuan/ton. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [5][14] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The market sentiment is weak, and short - selling is recommended. The upper pressure and lower support ranges are provided for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [6][15] - **Tin**: The supply and demand are both weak, and short - selling positions can be reduced. The upper pressure range is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 250,000 - 255,000 yuan/ton [7][15] - **Lead**: The price fluctuates in a range, and medium - term bullishness can be considered. The lower support range is 16,600 - 16,800 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure range is 17,200 - 17,400 yuan/ton [8][16] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The upper pressure and lower support ranges are provided, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [9][16] Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Situation**: The closing prices and price changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are provided [17] Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector is presented, including the price change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties [19] Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy are provided [20][22] Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: Graphs related to copper inventory, copper concentrate refining fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper price are presented [26][27] - **Zinc**: Graphs related to zinc inventory, zinc concentrate processing fees, zinc spot market price, and galvanized sheet production seasonality are presented [29] - **Aluminum**: Graphs related to the relationship between aluminum inventory and price, LME aluminum inventory and price, and aluminum spot premium are presented [31][32] - **Alumina**: Graphs related to alumina spot price trend and alumina port inventory change are presented [37] - **Tin**: Graphs related to tin price and spot premium, tin inventory, and tin concentrate processing fees are presented [39][44] - **Lead**: Graphs related to lead concentrate processing fees, lead futures inventory, LME lead premium, and lead spot price are presented [47][48] - **Nickel**: Graphs related to nickel futures inventory, LME nickel inventory, refined nickel spot premium, and LME nickel premium are presented [51][53] - **Stainless Steel**: Graphs related to stainless steel futures inventory and stainless steel spot price are presented [57][58] Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - **Copper**: Graphs related to the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the premium between Shanghai copper and London copper are presented [59] - **Zinc**: Graphs related to the zinc Shanghai - London ratio change and LME zinc spot premium are presented [61] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Graphs related to aluminum basis, aluminum Shanghai - London ratio, the difference between Shanghai aluminum contracts, and the difference between alumina contracts are presented [64][67] - **Tin**: Graphs related to tin basis, the difference between tin contracts, and the tin Shanghai - London ratio are presented [67][69] - **Lead**: Graphs related to the difference between Shanghai zinc and Shanghai lead, and the lead Shanghai - London ratio are presented [70] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Graphs related to the nickel Shanghai - London ratio, the ratio of nickel to stainless steel, and the difference between nickel contracts are presented [73][74] Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - **Copper**: Graphs related to copper option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and the ratio of call to put positions are presented [76] - **Zinc**: Graphs related to zinc historical volatility, zinc option weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and the ratio of call to put positions are presented [78][79] - **Aluminum**: Graphs related to aluminum option trading volume, the ratio of call to put positions, historical volatility, and implied volatility are presented [81][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment of lithium carbonate has significantly receded, but it rebounded after approaching the 70,000 RMB mark, indicating that downstream buyers have a stronger willingness to stock up at low prices. However, there are concerns about weakening demand in the medium to long term [4][5]. - For industrial silicon, the market is driven by news, with increased volatility. Before the implementation of supply - side reform measures, the market may continue to speculate on policy expectations [6]. - In the case of polysilicon, short - term speculative sentiment is high, but the weakening terminal demand and high enterprise inventories will create selling pressure. The full - cost line provides strong support, and the market may still speculate on policy expectations before supply - side reform measures are introduced [7][8]. Summary by Directory Part One: Spot Prices 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Lithium Carbonate 09**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. The support level is 65,000 - 66,000 RMB, and the pressure level is 78,000 - 83,000 RMB. Sellers are advised to seize hedging opportunities, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price inventory replenishment [13]. - **Industrial Silicon 09**: It will have two - way fluctuations. The support level is 8,500 - 8,600 RMB, and the pressure level is 9,900 - 10,000 RMB. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Polysilicon 09**: It will have two - way fluctuations. The support level is 45,000 - 46,000 RMB, and the pressure level is 55,000 - 56,000 RMB. It is recommended to reduce long positions [13]. 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lithium Carbonate | 70,600 RMB | - 0.34% | 792,909 | 272,753 | - 27,867 | 13,131 | | Industrial Silicon | 9,285 RMB | - 0.70% | 605,161 | 242,677 | - 34,057 | 49,846 | | Polysilicon | 54,705 RMB | 8.87% | 565,243 | 164,490 | 23,852 | 3,070 | [13] Part Two: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a decrease of 485 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory was 143,170 tons, an increase of 550 tons from the previous week, reaching a new high. The weekly apparent demand was 18,080 tons, a phased high. The inventory - to - use days were relatively stable at 55.4 days [4]. - **Downstream**: As the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles exceeds 50%, the growth rate of new - energy vehicle demand is gradually declining. The production and sales growth rate in August is expected to decline further, and the production and sales volume in the fourth quarter may be flat or even lower than the same period last year [4]. 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The resumption of production by manufacturers has accelerated due to the recovery of profits. The production is expected to continue to increase. The inventory has decreased in the short term due to improved sales, but the follow - up sales and production cuts need to be monitored [6]. - **Downstream**: No specific content provided. 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Short - term speculative sentiment is high, and the fundamental drivers are temporarily ineffective. High inventories and weak terminal demand will create selling pressure, while the full - cost line provides support [7][8]. - **Downstream**: No specific content provided.