1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is weak, affecting the prices of soft commodities and fresh - fruit products. Each variety has its own supply - demand fundamentals, which jointly determine their price trends and trading strategies [2][7][9]. - For soft commodities, sugar supply is abundant, paper pulp supply is not tight but demand is in the off - season, and double - offset paper has cost support weakening and demand in the off - season [2][5][6]. - For fresh - fruit products, the supply of apples has support, and the supply of jujubes is moving towards a situation of both supply and demand being strong [9][10]. 3. Summary of Each Section Based on the Table of Contents First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Interval | Pressure Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Reduce long positions | Supply - side support exists, but the overall commodity sentiment is weak recently, and the short - term may show a volatile and repeated trend | 8800 - 8900 | 11000 - 11500 [19] | | Jujube 2605 | Short - term buy on dips | The expectation of production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has begun to peak and decline | 8700 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 [19] | | Sugar 2605 | Hold short positions | International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar supply is in the peak season, with overall sufficient supply | 5070 - 5100 | 5300 - 5350 [19] | | Pulp 2605 | Lightly allocate long positions | Downstream finished paper is in the off - season, and pulp itself lacks new supply - side positive news recently, so the price is under pressure, but the US dollar quotation is stable, and the increase in warehouse receipt cost may support the short - term price | 5200 - 5300 | 5450 - 5500 [19] | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Interval operation | The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support situation after the disk price further declines and drives the basis to widen | 4000 - 4100 | 4250 - 4300 [19] | | Cotton 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | The long - term positive expectation still exists, and the medium - term support remains unchanged. However, the external price is in a bottom - seeking trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. Recently, the overall commodity sentiment is weak, and the short - term price may fluctuate repeatedly | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 [19] | Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 29, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas of China was 601,010 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 313,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 610,000 tons [20]. - **Spot Market**: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in the Shandong production area is stable, and the packaging volume of merchants in the cold storage is okay. The price of bagged Fuji in the Shaanxi production area is also stable, and the packaging volume in the cold storage has increased significantly. In the sales area, the market arrival volume is increasing, and the sales of gift - boxed products are okay [20][21][22]. Jujube Market As of January 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 13,143 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 925 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.99%. The pre - Spring Festival is the traditional consumption peak season for jujubes, but the current sales speed is slower than that of last year, and the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end [23]. Sugar Market As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 19.503 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.35%. Stonex estimated that Brazil's sugar production in the central and southern regions in the 2026/27 crushing season would be 40.7 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous estimate. As of the week of January 27, the net short position of speculative positions in ICE raw sugar futures + options decreased by 21,040 hands compared with the previous week. India's domestic sugar sales quota in February 2026 was 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January [26]. Pulp Market Affected by the decline in futures prices and the weakening demand for key resale varieties, the Chinese pulp market continued to be weak. The price of resold BSK decreased, and the spot quotation of imported NBSK also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remained stable [28]. Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [29]. Cotton Market As of January 27, the non - commercial net long position of futures + options in the ICE cotton futures market decreased by 13,592 contracts compared with the previous week [30]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9380 | - 138 | - 1.45% [31] | | Jujube 2605 | 8820 | - 130 | - 1.45% [31] | | Sugar 2605 | 5207 | - 41 | - 0.78% [31] | | Pulp 2605 | 5266 | - 34 | - 0.64% [31] | | Cotton 2605 | 14575 | - 95 | - 0.65% [31] | Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 [36] | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 [36] | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5330 | 0 | - 580 [36] | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5375 | - 25 | - 1225 [36] | | Double - offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 [36] | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16070 | - 113 | 1344 [36] | Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1271 | 55 | 1781 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips [57] | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 225 | - 10 | 155 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see [57] | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 15 | 1 | - 148 | Oscillate | Wait and see [57] | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 110 | 30 | 40 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs [57] | Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 [89] | | Jujube | 3317 | 0 | - 699 [89] | | Sugar | 14069 | - 50 | - 10059 [89] | | Pulp | 142447 | 0 | - 196281 [89] | | Cotton | 10325 | 36 | 3612 [89] | Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market rose rapidly under the boost of capital, with the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing as the main driving forces. The price broke through the historical high and continued to strengthen, and is currently fluctuating widely at a high level [59]. - In 2026, the tight supply of tin ore will gradually ease, showing a pattern of tight supply in the first half and loose in the second half. The operating rate of smelters will improve after the holiday. The processing fee, which has been at a low level, increased in January and has room for further growth. However, the secondary tin smelting industry still faces problems such as an inefficient waste recycling system and uncertain recycling policies [59]. - In terms of demand, the tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue its good growth trend in 2026, benefiting from the rapid development of the semiconductor industry due to computing power demand. In addition, the external demand in the traditional tin - plated sheet field is expanding, offsetting some of the negative impact of the decline in domestic demand. The future development of Sino - US trade frictions remains the biggest uncertainty [59]. - In 2026, the global interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the non - ferrous metal sector will cyclically improve. The supply side is likely to gradually loosen, while the downstream demand also has some bright spots. The supply and demand of tin are likely to remain in a tight - balanced situation. It is expected that tin prices will remain strong in 2026, with the Shanghai tin futures price mainly ranging between 350,000 - 450,000 and the LME tin price mainly between 45,000 - 60,000 [59]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review and Macroeconomic Impact - **Market Review**: In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market accelerated its upward rush, and the overall center of gravity shifted significantly. The main driving forces were the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing, while the impact of the current fundamentals was relatively weak [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Geopolitical situations are complex and changeable. The EU is considering imposing tariffs on US goods worth 93 billion euros and restricting US companies from entering the EU market. The US will impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from eight European countries starting February 1, 2026, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% starting June 1. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the candidate for the new Fed chair is undetermined. Since January, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, putting pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector [11]. Part II: Tin Supply - Side Analysis - **Tin Ore Supply**: China's tin ore production has been declining in recent years due to over - exploitation, low - grade reserves, and limited new resource discoveries. In 2025, the production of tin concentrates in China showed a slight increase. In December 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly month - on - month. With the gradual increase in tin ore exports from the Wa State in Myanmar, the import volume is expected to increase in 2026 [17]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In 2025, the price of tin concentrates showed an upward trend, and the processing fee was weak. In 2026, with a slight improvement in ore supply, the processing fee was raised. In December 2025, the output of refined tin by domestic sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that in 2026, the supply growth rate of refined tin will be slightly higher than that in 2025, but the output in January may decrease month - on - month [20]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export**: In 2026, there is a trend of opening the refined tin import window. In December 2025, both imports and exports of refined tin increased. In 2025, China's net exports of refined tin were nearly 3,500 tons [23]. Part III: Tin Demand - Side Analysis - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. However, in 2025, due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and the decline in domestic demand, the production decreased significantly. In 2025, the export of tin - plated sheets increased, but the future export situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war [29]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The production of lead - acid batteries has been growing in recent years, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2025, the export of lead - acid batteries decreased year - on - year due to the impact of the trade war [30]. - **Electronic Products**: The growth cycle of electronic products is approaching the end. In 2025, the production growth rate of electronic products turned negative. It is expected that the production and sales of computers and mobile phones will decline in 2026 [35]. - **Integrated Circuits**: Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, it is expected that the production and sales of integrated circuits will continue to grow rapidly in the medium and long term [36]. - **PVC and Glass**: The production of PVC has been increasing, while the production of glass has been decreasing. Each ton of glass consumes about 22 grams of tin [41]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic industry is transforming from a high - speed development stage. In 2025, there was a rush to install photovoltaic capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW. The new tin demand in the global photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 43,000 tons, and about 20,000 tons in China [44]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. It is expected that the growth rate in 2026 will be between 15% - 20% [48]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance**: As of December 1, 2025, the combined inventory of tin in the two major exchanges was at a relatively high - middle level. The global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months since 2018. In 2025 and 2026, the supply and demand are expected to remain in a tight - balanced situation [51][55]. - **Seasonal Analysis**: Historically, tin prices are weakest in June, and the probability of decline is high in March and October. The probability of increase is high in January, April, July, and December, and the increase is relatively significant. The probability of decline in August is slightly higher than that of increase, while the probability of increase in November is higher [57]. - **Related Stocks**: The stocks of related tin industries have shown significant increases in both monthly and annual terms, such as Tin Industry Co., Ltd., Xingye Co., Ltd., etc. [58]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall weakness of hog prices is difficult to reverse due to continuous release of production capacity pressure [1] - In February 2026, the market generally expects a significant decline in spot hog prices after the Spring Festival, with the post - holiday low possibly falling below 11.5 yuan/kg [5] - In trading, it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling. After the Spring Festival, wait for the spot low to buy contracts 05 and 07 at low prices, or hold long futures positions and sell deep out - of - the - money call options [5] - Pay attention to the seasonal low of spot prices after the Spring Festival and the culling of breeding sows [95] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 January Hog Spot and Futures Price Review - In January 2026, the overall commodity market strengthened, and the agricultural product index rebounded. However, the hog index hit a new low and continued to fluctuate at a low level [9][10] - The hog spot price rebounded briefly in January and then fell back to a historical low. The price of piglets rebounded significantly, and the feed price was relatively strong [14][17][20] - Terminal consumption did not improve significantly, the average price of白条 meat fluctuated at a low level for a long time, and the pressure of poultry prices on hog prices decreased [23][29] - The hog price showed a slight upward trend before the Spring Festival this year. Historically, the average monthly increase in January was - 2.3%, and the probability of an increase was 46% [32] Hog Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The inventory of breeding sows is currently in the green reasonable range, with a limited overall decline compared to 2024 [34][35] - The capital expenditure of group enterprises has decreased significantly compared to previous years, and the current culling of breeding sows is relatively moderate [36][38] - The production efficiency of single sows has increased, and the gap between leading enterprises is gradually narrowing [40] Listed Hog Enterprises - In 2025, the slaughter volume of leading group companies increased significantly year - on - year. However, the profitability of group enterprises was highly differentiated, and most still suffered losses [45][46] - In 2025, the overall breeding cost of group enterprises decreased, but the differences were large, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies was at a historically high level [49][50] Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - In January, the sentiment of passive hog retention was still high, the weight reduction speed of the industry was slow, and the slaughter volume was at a historically low level [54][57][59] - The import volume of pork and offal declined from a high level, and the overall frozen product inventory was in the destocking stage in January [61][64] - In January, self - breeding and self - raising turned profitable, while the slaughter of purchased piglets continued to be in a loss state [67][68] Hog Futures Price - The hog futures price rebounded following the spot price and then fell back. The near - month futures price has become at a discount to the spot price [69] - The hog index failed to rebound from a historical low, and the trading volume was at a historically high level. The ratio of hog to feed on the futures market was close to a historical low [70][73] - Contracts 2603 and 2605 are below the breeding cost, and there is an expectation of a post - holiday off - season with a discount to the spot price. The price of peak - season contracts is slightly higher than the breeding cost but has a high premium to the current spot price [75][78] - The basis is slightly stronger than in the same period of previous years. Pay attention to the post - Spring Festival spot price trend. There may still be reverse arbitrage opportunities between months, and the discount before the futures delivery month is still high [81][84][87] - The volatility of the hog 2605 contract is at a low level [93]

聚酯产业链期货期权2月报告 投资咨询业务资格:京证监许可【2012]75号 聚酯产业链：成本与需求博弈 行情震荡为主 能源化工团队/俞杨烽 （交易咨询证号Z0015361） 年 月 日 文字/背景 Text/Background 填充色 Accents 3 聚酯产业链行情回顾 数据来源：文华，方正中期研究院 • 2026年1月，随着春节临近，中下游开工逐步走弱使得需求下降，但是原油价格底部回升在成本端形成支撑，同时由于聚酯链品种估值偏低且中远期供需结构趋 于改善，使得市场看涨情绪高涨，推升价格破位上行。 2 文字/背景 Text/Background 填充色 Accents 原油：地缘风险溢价抬升 数据来源：文华，方正中期研究院 • 2026年1月，美国逮捕了委内瑞拉总统，伊朗国内局势动荡，同时美国向中东增兵使得中东地缘风险升温，国际局势动荡，使得原油地缘风险溢价上升，油 价由底部震荡回升。其中，布伦特原油由60美元/桶回升至70美元/桶附近。 文字/背景 Text/Background 填充色 Accents OPEC+原油产量延续增加 美国商业和战略储备原油库存同比上升 350000 400000 450 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the global copper market hit a new high but with significant fluctuations. The rise was mainly driven by market sentiment and capital inflow, and the price increase was also affected by the changes in the US dollar index and the nomination of a new Fed chair. The domestic copper market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with increased inventory and alleviated structural contradictions [5][8]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the global copper market is expected to shift from a tight - balance to a supply - shortage situation, with a projected shortage of 150,000 tons of refined copper. The supply of copper concentrates will remain tight, while the demand from the power grid, new energy, and AI sectors is expected to grow [48][89]. - The long - term upward trend of copper prices is clear. Financially, the US dollar index is likely to decline in the long - term, and copper is expected to be an important asset allocation for macro funds. Fundamentally, although the short - term supply is abundant, the long - term supply of copper concentrates is tight, and demand is expected to increase [118]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Copper Market Review in January - The global copper market in January 2026 hit a new high with significant fluctuations. London copper briefly broke through the $14,000 mark but then fell back. The monthly gains of LME copper and SHFE copper were both around 5%, with the outer market slightly stronger than the inner market. Market sentiment and capital inflow were more important factors than fundamentals. The rise in gold and silver prices led to capital overflow into the copper market, and the high gold - copper ratio provided upward momentum for copper valuation [5][8]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the US dollar index fell to a nearly 4 - year low, boosting the prices of gold, silver, and copper. However, Trump's nomination of a new Fed chair at the end of the month caused a shock in global assets, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly, dragging down copper prices [8]. - Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rose back to the expansion range but fell below 50 in January 2026. Liquidity was further relaxed, inflation recovered moderately, and market risk appetite increased [8]. - Fundamentally, domestic electrolytic copper production reached a new monthly high, while demand entered the off - season. The global copper market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with increasing inventory and alleviated structural contradictions [8]. 3.2 Global Macro and Copper Market - China's inflation is expected to recover moderately in 2026. The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rose back to the expansion range but fell below 50 in January 2026. The consumer price index and core CPI increased, and the PPI showed signs of recovery. The domestic economy is expected to continue the transformation trend of 2025, and copper will benefit from the strong demand in new energy, power grid investment, and AI data center construction [11][13]. - China's copper demand is likely to reach its peak and the growth rate will gradually slow down in the long - term, while the US copper demand has great growth potential due to the reshoring of manufacturing and the expansion of AI capital expenditure. The US is entering a new inventory replenishment cycle, which is positive for copper prices in the medium - term. Although Nvidia's downward revision of the copper demand forecast in data centers caused short - term negative sentiment, the impact on the overall supply - demand balance is limited [18]. - The US dollar index has weakened, which has boosted the prices of gold and silver. The Fed's interest rate decision and Trump's nomination of a new Fed chair have affected the US dollar index. In the long - term, the US dollar is likely to enter a downward cycle [20]. 3.3 Copper Supply Situation Analysis - **Mine End**: The global copper mine faces the problems of slow growth and decreasing grade. The annual compound growth rate of global copper mine production has declined from about 5% during 2015 - 2016 to about 2% in recent years. Major mining companies such as Southern Copper and Glencore have lowered their future production forecasts. The global copper concentrate supply shortage is difficult to alleviate in the short - term, and the supply gap is expected to widen in 2026 and may not be alleviated until 2028 [23][25][27]. - **Domestic Smelting End**: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a new high, mainly due to the release of new capacity, the high price of by - products such as sulfuric acid, and the substitution of scrap copper. In January 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production increased slightly, but it is expected to decline in February. In 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to be about 13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%, and global electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 4% [31][33]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: The long - term processing fee (TC/RC) of copper concentrates in 2026 has been set at $0/ton and $0 cents/lb, indicating a tight supply situation. The competition for global copper concentrates will become more intense, and the import copper concentrate index (TC) in China is expected to continue to decline [36]. - **Scrap Copper and Anode**: In 2025, China's recycled copper raw material imports and domestic recycling volume increased. The proportion of recycled copper raw materials flowing to the smelting end continued to rise. In January 2026, the spread between refined and scrap copper widened, and the supply of scrap anodes increased, boosting electrolytic copper production [37][39]. - **Electrolytic Copper Import and Export**: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper import volume decreased, and the export volume increased, achieving a tight supply - demand balance. In 2026, the adjustment trend of the import - export structure is expected to continue, and the net import volume may continue to decline [40][42]. 3.4 Copper Demand Situation Analysis - **Domestic Copper Products Production**: In 2025, China's copper products production reached a new high. In January 2026, production was in the seasonal off - season. In 2026, China's copper products production is expected to maintain double - digit growth, and global total demand is expected to increase by 4 - 5% year - on - year [45][48]. - **Refined Copper Rod**: In 2026, the production of refined copper rods is expected to increase significantly, mainly due to the strengthening of domestic power grid investment. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period will see a significant increase in power grid investment, and 2026 is expected to achieve double - digit growth [49][51]. - **Copper Tube**: In 2025, the output of copper tubes increased slightly. In 2026, the output is expected to decline slightly due to the limited effect of consumption - stimulating policies and the high - base effect of exports [52][54]. - **Copper Bar**: In 2025, the production of copper bars decreased, and in 2026, it is expected to continue to decline, becoming a drag on copper consumption due to factors such as the real estate downturn, high copper prices, and policy uncertainties [55][57]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: In 2025, the production of copper plate and strip was lower than the average in recent years, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2026 due to the impact of the real estate cycle [58][60]. - **Copper Foil**: In 2025, the output of copper foil increased significantly, and in 2026, it is expected to maintain high - speed growth due to the development of the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries [61][67]. - **Power Grid Investment**: In 2025, power grid investment reached a new high. In the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, power grid investment is expected to increase significantly, and in 2026, the investment of the State Grid and Southern Grid is expected to reach 70 billion yuan and 19 billion yuan respectively, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 7% [68][71]. - **Real Estate Investment**: In 2025, real estate investment continued to decline, and in 2026, it is expected to remain a drag on copper consumption [72][74]. - **Home Appliance Consumption**: In 2025, the policy of replacing old home appliances with new ones boosted consumption, but the growth rate slowed down in the second half of the year. In 2026, the policy will continue, which is expected to support home appliance consumption [75][77]. - **New Energy Vehicles and AI**: In 2025, the production of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and it is expected to maintain high - speed growth in the future. The copper demand in the new energy and AI fields is expected to increase rapidly, and the combined copper demand is expected to account for 22% by 2030 [78][80]. 3.5 Copper Inventory Change Analysis - In 2025, the total inventory of the three major global exchanges increased, but the inventory structure was contradictory. In 2026, the global copper market shifted to a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the total inventory increased, with the structural contradiction alleviating. The domestic social inventory has entered the inventory accumulation cycle [83][85]. 3.6 Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the global refined copper market was in a state of supply surplus. In 2026, it is expected to shift to a supply - shortage situation, with a shortage of 150,000 tons [89]. 3.7 Copper Position Analysis - As of January 20, 2026, the total position of COMEX copper futures and options increased, but the net long position decreased. The long - position of LME copper investment funds decreased in January, indicating that the market's bullish sentiment has become more cautious [97]. 3.8 Arbitrage Analysis - In January, the Shanghai - London ratio of copper decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2026. The copper - zinc ratio has been rising and is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [102]. 3.9 Copper Option Market - In January, the historical volatility and implied volatility of copper options rose to a nearly 3 - year high. The market showed signs of over - buying in the short - term, and it is suitable to sell options. The option strategy suggests constructing a short - position of slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums. The PCR ratio shows that the option market's expectation of copper prices has turned bullish [107][109]. 3.10 Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - Technically, copper has broken through the long - term shock range and formed a 20 - year cup - and - handle pattern, which is a bullish signal [116]. - In January, the rise of copper prices was mainly due to the repair of valuation. In the long - term, the downward trend of the US dollar index is clear, and copper is expected to be an important asset allocation for macro funds. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. The operation suggestion is that downstream demanders can conduct long - term hedging operations, and the option strategy can consider selling slightly out - of - the - money put options or constructing a short - straddle strategy to short volatility. The short - term support range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is expected to be 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [118].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend with significant fluctuations, driven by macro - factors and capital resonance. The alumina futures had a wide - range volatile trend affected by the chemical sector and supply - side production cuts. The cast aluminum alloy futures moved in tandem with Shanghai aluminum [6][9][12]. - In 2025, the alumina supply was loose, and it is expected to remain so in 2026. The electrolytic aluminum supply - demand situation worsened in 2025 but is expected to shift from oversupply to undersupply in 2026. The recycled aluminum alloy maintained a balanced pattern in 2025 and is expected to continue a tight - balance situation in 2026 [95][96]. - In February 2026, the aluminum price is expected to decline first and then rise, with the Shanghai aluminum price mainly ranging from 22,000 to 25,000. Alumina will continue to bottom - out, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies, with the price mainly ranging from 2,200 to 2,900. The cast aluminum alloy price will be mainly in the range of 21,000 - 24,000 [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Aluminum**: Since January, the Shanghai aluminum futures oscillated upward, with several sharp increases followed by consolidation, and a significant decline on the last trading day of the month affected by the precious metals market. Macro - factors and capital resonance were the main driving forces [6]. - **Alumina**: Since January, the alumina futures first rose, then fell, and then rebounded, showing a wide - range volatile trend, influenced by the active chemical sector and minor supply - side production cuts [9]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Since its listing in June, the cast aluminum alloy futures showed an oscillating upward trend, generally in sync with the Shanghai aluminum futures [12]. 3.2 Upstream of the Industrial Chain - **Bauxite**: In 2025, China's bauxite imports increased by 17.1% year - on - year, with imports from Guinea up 38%. The domestic bauxite production decreased by 7.86% year - on - year. The external dependence on bauxite is expected to exceed 75% in 2026 [17]. - **Alumina**: In 2025, China's alumina exports increased by 42.7% year - on - year, and imports in November increased by 134.11% year - on - year. The production increased, and with new capacity coming online, it is expected to grow by about 5% in 2026. As of January 16, 2026, the total alumina inventory increased by 36.5% compared with the same period in 2025 [21][23][27]. 3.3 Middle - stream of the Industrial Chain - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In November 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports decreased by 40.8% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. From 2024 to now, imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [32]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is stable with a slight increase. The in - production capacity has been increasing since 2024. In 2025, it maintained a high - level operation. In 2026, 1.78 million tons of capacity is planned to be cut, and 2.414 million tons of new capacity is to be released [36]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3% year - on - year, and the annual production increased by 2.4% year - on - year. In December, the downstream开工率 decreased, and the aluminum - water ratio dropped [39]. - **Aluminum Plant Profits**: Since 2025, aluminum plant profits have increased significantly. As of January 19, 2026, the immediate profit of self - power - supplied aluminum plants and grid - powered aluminum plants has exceeded the 2023 - 2024 level [43]. - **Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory**: The annual inventory level has been decreasing in recent years. In 2026, it is expected to have two periods of inventory accumulation during the off - season, with the annual high point after the Spring Festival [46]. 3.4 Downstream of the Industrial Chain - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: Since 2023, the aluminum processing industry has had a low operating rate. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the operating rate of each segment has decreased month - on - month [52]. - **Aluminum Alloy Import and Export**: In November 2025, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 28.2% year - on - year and 4.1% month - on - month, while the export increased by 51.6% year - on - year and decreased by 1.1% month - on - month [55]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy has been increasing year by year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production increased by 23.55% year - on - year [59]. - **Aluminum Alloy Product Inventory**: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has been accumulating, especially during the off - season, and it is expected to continue rising in the short term [62]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: In 2025, the cumulative export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. Due to trade barriers, it is expected to continue to decline in 2026 [66]. 3.5 Terminal of the Industrial Chain - **Real Estate Industry**: In 2025, the real estate market was in a deep adjustment period, with investment, new construction, and sales all declining. It is expected to take time to recover [72][75]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down to 15 - 20% in 2026 [78]. - **Three Major Home Appliances**: In 2025, the production of three major home appliances showed a slow - down in growth. It is expected to maintain positive growth in 2026 with policy support [82]. - **Power Grid Investment**: In 2025, the power grid investment increased by 5.93% year - on - year. In 2026, the UHV construction is expected to continue to develop rapidly [85]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: In 2025, the photovoltaic industry had a high - speed development, but there was over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW [89]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In 2025, the import of scrap aluminum increased significantly. It is expected that the tight supply of scrap aluminum will continue [92].

Report Title - Zinc Futures and Options February 2026 Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - **Macro**: The Fed has paused rate cuts, and the manufacturing sectors in China and the US show resilience. Geopolitical disturbances, the emphasis on key supply chains in AI, high - tech manufacturing, and energy transition have amplified the positive impact on the supply side. Capital flowing from precious metals to non - ferrous metals has boosted sector rotation. However, there is a divergence between strong expectations and actual demand, and a significant correction due to weakening expectations should be guarded against [6]. - **Supply**: Zinc concentrate supply is seasonally tight. Domestic smelters have completed winter stockpiling, but some lead - zinc mines in China had routine maintenance and shutdowns in January, weakening domestic supply. Overseas mines are also affected by factors like the Iran situation and community protests. European natural gas price hikes and low LME inventories have strengthened the external market. Domestic refined zinc shows a situation of weak supply and demand and is in a stage of inventory accumulation [6]. - **Demand**: In 2026, the real estate sector is stabilizing and recovering. Manufacturing is expected to be led by high - end manufacturing and AI development. There is a divergence between price increases and seasonal weakness in the downstream. In terms of imports and exports, the export performance was good in 2025, and in 2026, the incremental space for zinc demand is still mainly in the overseas market. The domestic and export demand for galvanized products is expected to remain strong [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic inventory is recovering, while LME zinc inventory has recovered from a low level but remains relatively tight. The LME 0 - 3 spread is in a slight contango state, and the strong LME zinc price boosts the domestic market [6]. - **Outlook**: In February 2026, geopolitical changes will affect the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. Supply - demand mismatches around the Spring Festival and capital flows during the holiday may lead to a temporary cooling of the market. However, the downside space is expected to be limited. Buy - hedgers can consider the opportunity to buy on dips. The market is expected to operate in the range of 24,000 - 27,000 yuan/ton, and after a full correction, a long - biased strategy on dips can be considered [6]. Summary by Directory Global Macro and Zinc Market - **Long - term Zinc Price Trends**: After the subprime mortgage crisis, factors such as global liquidity floods, supply - side reforms, the Fed's QE, the European energy crisis, the COVID - 19 pandemic, the Fed's tightening cycle, and the current Fed's rate - cut expectations and geopolitical disturbances have all affected zinc prices [10]. - **Weakening US Dollar Trend**: In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut rates twice. Concerns about policy continuity and independence, political risks, global capital re - balancing, and the strengthening of external currencies all contribute to a weakening US dollar [12]. - **Manufacturing Recovery**: Zinc prices are highly correlated with global manufacturing sentiment. The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the recovery of manufacturing data support non - ferrous metals. However, the strong performance of the sector has exceeded the manufacturing recovery rhythm, and there is a divergence between strong expectations and weak reality [16]. - **US Stagflation Expectations**: The US employment market growth is slowing, inflation is volatile, and geopolitical situations are causing oil price fluctuations [19]. - **Domestic Policy Support**: China will maintain a loose fiscal and moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. There will be continued optimization and upgrading in consumer goods and large - scale equipment renewal, and infrastructure construction related to technology development will also continue [24]. Zinc Supply Analysis - **Overseas Zinc Mine Production**: In Q3 2025, the total output of tracked mines decreased slightly quarter - on - quarter by 0.9% but increased year - on - year by 9.69%. From January to September 2025, it increased year - on - year by 11.35%, with an incremental contribution of about 400,000 tons. Mines like Antamina, Kipushi, Tara, and Gamsberg are the main sources of incremental production in 2025 [31]. - **Global Zinc Mine Output**: In 2025, global zinc mine supply rebounded after three years of decline. In 2026, there is still room for growth, but overseas growth may slow down while China's growth may emerge. The copper/zinc ratio may lead to an adjustment in mine - end increments [37]. - **Domestic Zinc Mine Production**: In 2025, domestic zinc concentrate production increased by about 70,000 tons year - on - year. In 2026, projects like Huoshaoyun and Zhugongtang may bring an increase of 100,000 - 200,000 tons and 50,000 - 80,000 tons respectively [39]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports**: In 2025, zinc concentrate imports reached 5,325,542.08 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.62% [44]. - **Global Refined Zinc Production**: In 2025, refined zinc production recovered to some extent, but the improvement from the mine end to zinc ingot production was affected by overseas profit factors [47]. - **Processing Fees**: In January 2026, domestic and imported processing fees weakened seasonally, indicating a strong mine end [51]. - **Refined Zinc Enterprise Profits**: Refined zinc enterprises are in a loss situation, but the long - term contract price in 2026 has generally increased [55]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In 2025, refined zinc output increased with profit recovery, but it weakened at the end of the year and in early 2026, and is expected to decline during the Spring Festival [59]. - **Refined Zinc Imports and Exports**: In 2025, imports decreased by 31.78% year - on - year, and exports increased by 459.90%. In 2026, there is still a possibility of intermittent export window openings [63]. Zinc Demand Analysis - **Apparent and Actual Consumption**: In 2025, the apparent consumption of zinc ingots was mostly higher than the five - year average and slightly higher than the actual consumption, indicating an improvement in supply. However, supply decreased significantly at the end of the year [69]. - **Galvanizing Enterprises**: The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was weak, with limited recovery in actual consumption. There is still an expectation of capacity release, and export demand has development potential [73]. - **Zinc Die - Casting Enterprises**: The operating rate of zinc die - casting alloy enterprises was better in the first half of 2025 but weakened in the second half. There was a polarization between large and small factories [76]. - **Zinc Oxide Industry**: The operating rate of the zinc oxide industry was weak, with a significant decline from May to June and a continuous decline from October to December [80]. Zinc Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Inventories**: As of the end of January 2026, LME zinc inventory was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.13%, and SHFE zinc inventory was 65,154 tons, a year - on - year increase of 199.13%. Both overseas and domestic inventories are at relatively low historical levels [86]. - **Social Inventories**: As of January 2026, social inventories have recovered from a low level and are at a relatively high level in recent years, indicating a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [89]. Zinc Supply - Demand Balance - **Global Refined Zinc**: In 2025, global refined zinc supply is expected to be slightly in surplus, and in 2026, the surplus is expected to expand to 290,000 tons [94]. - **Domestic Refined Zinc**: In 2025, domestic refined zinc turned to a slight surplus. In 2026, domestic production is expected to increase further, and there may be intermittent export opportunities, maintaining a surplus pattern [97]. Zinc Technical Analysis - Since the fourth quarter of 2025, zinc has been in an upward channel. In January 2026, it accelerated its rise but faced adjustment pressure at the end of the month. After breaking through last year's high, the upper - resistance level has expanded above 27,000 yuan. A long - biased strategy on dips can be considered [102]. Arbitrage Analysis - **Domestic - Overseas and Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: The zinc Shanghai - London ratio is highly correlated with the RMB - US dollar exchange rate. The import window for zinc has opened intermittently, and there may be opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage and export. The copper - zinc ratio reached a new high at the end of 2025, but there may be room for the ratio to return in 2026 [109]. Zinc Option Market - **Option Volatility Analysis**: In 2025, the historical and implied volatilities of Shanghai zinc options showed a trend of rising and then falling. Different option strategies can be adopted according to different volatility levels [113]. Summary: Zinc Market Outlook and Operational Suggestions - In February 2026, zinc is expected to maintain high volatility. Supply - demand mismatches, macro and mine - end changes may intensify fluctuations. The market is expected to operate in the range of 24,000 - 27,000 yuan/ton. Option strategies such as selling out - of - the - money calls during the consolidation period and buying zinc and selling copper for arbitrage can be considered. For the industrial side, buy - hedging can be considered at low levels after a full correction, and sell - hedging opportunities currently exist [121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, lead prices showed a fluctuating trend, mainly between 16,850 - 17,860 yuan. In February, lead is likely to have a weak - side oscillation, with a wide - range pattern remaining unchanged, and the fluctuation range is expected to be mainly between 16,500 - 17,600 yuan. The Shanghai lead trend is less affected by macro resonance compared to other varieties, and there may be a supply - demand mismatch and inventory accumulation around holidays. Overseas, changes in the export end should be noted [3]. - Macro factors have an impact on the non - ferrous metal market. The long - term demand for non - ferrous metals is boosted by factors such as technology, AI, and energy transformation. The Fed still has room for interest rate cuts in 2026, and China maintains a moderately loose monetary policy. The dollar index is expected to be weakly volatile, which may boost the attractiveness of metals. However, the new Fed chairman's policy combination has brought short - term pressure on metals [17]. - The supply and demand of lead are both weak. On the supply side, the supply of lead - rich silver lead ore is tight, the processing fee has declined, and the by - product benefits are considerable. The supply of primary lead is restricted by the ore supply, and the supply of recycled lead is supported by the high price of waste batteries and affected by winter environmental protection. On the demand side, due to the low finished product orders, lead battery enterprises have high finished product inventories, and their stockpiling of lead ingots is limited, resulting in a light trading volume in the lead spot market [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Market Review - **Lead Futures Trend Review**: In January 2026, most of the time, the Shanghai lead fluctuated within the range of 16,850 - 17,860 yuan/ton. The raw materials were relatively strong, which limited the downward space of lead prices. The center of lead prices once rebounded due to the resonance of non - ferrous metals, but the demand was weak, and the price rose weakly and then fell [8]. - **Lead Spot Basis**: In January 2026, the basis mainly fluctuated between 0 and - 200, showing a weakening trend, with the futures being stronger than the spot [11]. 3.2 Second Part: Macro Analysis - **Macro - factors Affecting Non - ferrous Metals**: Technology, AI, and energy transformation boost the long - term demand for non - ferrous metals. The Fed has room for interest rate cuts in 2026, and China maintains a moderately loose monetary policy. The dollar index is expected to be weakly volatile, which may boost the attractiveness of metals. However, the new Fed chairman's "balance - sheet reduction + interest rate cut" policy combination has brought short - term pressure on non - ferrous metals [17]. - **Future Focus**: The rhythm of interest rate cuts and geopolitical impacts will continue to have a strong impact on the non - ferrous metal sector. China's policies are favorable, but the overseas trade disputes faced by lead still exist, which will continue to have an adverse impact on exports [21]. 3.3 Third Part: Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Raw Material End - **Lead Ore Supply**: In 2025, the global lead ore production was 457 million tons (metal content), with a year - on - year increase of only 0.7%. In 2026, it is expected to reach 467 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. China's lead ore production increased in 2025, with a cumulative production of 117.77 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% according to the National Bureau of Statistics [27][32]. - **Lead Ore Import**: In 2025, the lead ore import volume was 1,419,824.94 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.05%. The import window was occasionally opened, and the import of lead concentrates turned profitable [35]. - **Lead Ore Processing Fee**: The processing fee of high - silver lead concentrates has declined. In 2025, the processing fee showed a short - term rebound but weakened further in the second half of the year and continued into 2026. The by - product income has become the main source of smelter income, but the profit space of smelters is still restricted [39]. 3.3.2 Supply End - **Refined Lead Production**: In 2025, the production of primary lead increased, with a total output of 385.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.6%. In January 2026, the output is expected to increase slightly, but the actual output may be light due to environmental protection and profit issues. The output of recycled lead is expected to decline after reaching a high at the end of 2025 [42][45]. - **Total Lead Supply**: According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2025, the total lead output was 774.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [52]. 3.3.3 Import - Export - **Refined Lead Net Import**: China has become a net importer of refined lead since 2024. In 2025, the cumulative net import was positive, with an import volume of 44,452.67 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.71%, and an export volume of 35,982.28 tons, a year - on - year increase of 63.60% [56]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Refined Lead Inventory**: Since 2023, the LME lead inventory has increased significantly from a historical low, while the domestic inventory has fluctuated and recovered but is still at a relatively low level. As of the end of January 2026, the LME lead inventory was 205,575 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.18%, and the Shanghai lead inventory was 30,584 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.33% [59]. 3.3.5 Demand End - **Lead Battery**: In 2025, the domestic demand for lead batteries was strong under policy support, but the export declined due to anti - dumping by GCC countries. Since 2025, the export of lead batteries has shown negative growth, with a cumulative export volume of 219 million units in 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 12.79% [62]. - **Automobile**: In 2025, the production and sales of automobiles reached new highs, with new energy vehicles becoming the dominant force in the market [66]. - **New - standard Electric Bicycle**: The sales of new - standard electric bicycles at the beginning of 2026 were weak. Although the replacement of over - standard electric bicycles and the "trade - in" policy have boosted sales, the impact of lithium - battery replacement cannot be ignored [70]. - **Motorcycle**: In 2025, the production and sales of motorcycles increased, and the export also showed a significant growth trend [73]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Supply - Demand Balance - **Global Refined Lead**: According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), in 2025, the global refined lead market had a surplus of 91,000 tons, and it is expected to increase to 102,000 tons in 2026 [81]. - **Domestic Refined Lead**: It is expected that the domestic refined lead will have a small surplus in 2026 [82]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Seasonal and Technical Analysis - **LME Lead Position Structure**: The current LME lead position structure is slightly bullish for lead prices [87]. - **Lead Seasonal Trend**: The seasonal trend of lead is related to the demand cycle. The months with a high probability of decline are March, September, November, and December, while the months with a high probability of increase are January, June, July, and August. However, lead prices declined in January in both 2025 and 2026, and there is a possibility of an opposite trend in February [88]. - **Lead Technical Analysis**: The Shanghai lead has maintained a wide - range oscillation pattern for a long time. In January 2026, it rose and then fell, and the support level is expected to be at 16,500 - 16,600, with the upper pressure level at 17,800 - 18,000. The oscillation pattern is expected to continue [92]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - **Conclusion**: In February 2026, the supply and demand of lead are expected to be weak, and there may be a supply - demand mismatch and inventory accumulation around holidays. Lead is likely to have a weak - side oscillation, mainly fluctuating between 16,500 - 17,600 yuan [95]. - **Operation Suggestions**: During the oscillation period, enterprises should purchase on demand and avoid excessive inventory. If the price drops significantly and is fully adjusted, they can consider buying hedging. In the case of low volatility, they can consider selling out - of - the - money options to collect option premiums [95].

镍及不锈钢期货与期权2026年2月报告 镍及不锈钢：印尼配额待落地 重心提升后构筑新区间 有色与新能源金属团队 杨莉娜 交易咨询号：Z0002618 2026年2月2日 www.founderfu.com 摘要 • 市场表现：2026年1月，镍及不锈钢期货开门红，镍期货在13.3-15.3万元之间波动，重心显著上移。不锈钢震荡上 行，重心同步提升，在13000-15000之间波动，重心低位上移，走势更为稳健。月末出现阶段获利了结。 • 宏观因素：全球科技、AI、能源转型发展倾向明显，地缘扰动、资源国民族主义提升供给端脆弱性，主要经济体货 币政策趋宽松，多因素提振有色金属整体牛市格局。阶段虽因美元反弹，以及地缘变化出现调整，但是长期逻辑未 改。 • 供需：强预期驱动：印尼镍矿扰动持续升温，从12月中下旬，即启动基于印尼收缩镍矿配额，全球供需形势可能从 过剩向紧平衡方向转变的行情，而印尼加大非法采矿惩罚力度、雨季供应扰动、可能对镍矿中钴、铁单独计税等， 从数量到镍产品其它成本均形成了较强的抬升预期，且菲律宾季节性矿端减产，矿端强势延续，矿价重心出现明显 回升。不过，印尼精炼镍新增产能、MHP新增投产预期仍存，未来 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The underlying logic of the current precious metals bull market is global de - dollarization, which remains intact. Central bank gold purchases continue [81]. - Despite Trump's nomination of Warsh as the new Fed chair, the Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates, leading to a decline in real US Treasury yields and benefiting gold and silver. Fed balance - sheet reduction is difficult to implement [81]. - The impairment of the US dollar's credit is due to multiple factors and is likely to enter a medium - to - long - term decline. 2026 is a big year for US Treasury issuance, with the total scale expected to exceed $40 trillion [81]. - Gold and silver are being redefined as anti - inflation assets and important components of global asset allocation. Silver's supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and it may have better price elasticity and return in 2026 [81]. - In the short term, there is a need for a technical correction, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged [81]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Market Review 1. Gold - In January 2026, the global gold market had a spectacular performance. London gold broke through the $5000 mark and reached nearly $5600, then had a significant drop. However, both London gold and Shanghai gold had cumulative gains of over 10%. Factors influencing the market included increased geopolitical uncertainty, accelerated de - dollarization, the Fed's inaction, the end of a series of negative factors, and Trump's appointment of a new Fed chair [14]. 2. Silver - In January 2026, the silver market also had an epic performance, with a more violent fluctuation. It had a cumulative gain of over 30%. The driving factors were similar to those of gold, and the potential risk of overseas delivery was also priced in. It also had a significant correction at the end of the month [17]. II. Macro Logic 1. Change in the Pricing Logic of Precious Metals - The traditional relationship between US Treasury real yields and gold has changed since 2023. The US debt, deficit, and the impairment of the US dollar's credit are becoming the new pricing anchors for gold. The pricing logic has shifted from the financial to the monetary attribute [21]. 2. De - dollarization Trend - The US dollar index has been declining since 2025, indicating a long - term decline in the US dollar premium. The "Triffin Dilemma" and the "Sea Lake Manor Agreement" are related to the US's economic strategy, which may lead to a reduction in the US dollar's status as a reserve currency. Global central banks have been de - dollarizing and increasing their gold holdings [24]. 3. Weakening of the Safe - haven Attributes of the US Dollar and US Treasuries - The US dollar and US Treasuries have started to show risk - asset characteristics, with the US stock, bond, and currency markets experiencing multiple sell - offs. Gold and silver's safe - haven attributes have been highlighted [28]. 4. Expansion of US Treasury Debt - The US Treasury debt has been expanding rapidly, with the total expected to exceed $40 trillion in 2026. This has led to a diversion of global safe - haven funds to gold, silver, and other assets [30]. 5. Gold as a Hedge against Credit Risk - Gold and silver have become the ultimate choice to hedge against the risks of the global credit currency system due to high global debt and the weakening of the US dollar's credibility [32]. 6. US Dollar Cycle - The US dollar has an approximately 17 - year cycle, and currently, it is at the start of a downward cycle. A decline in the US dollar index is expected to boost gold prices [34]. 7. US Economic and Policy Situation - The US GDP showed certain growth in 2025, consumer confidence improved in January 2026, the labor market cooled down, and inflation remained above the Fed's target. The Fed's independence has been challenged, and the market has different expectations for its policy [37][39][40]. 8. Redefinition of Gold - Gold has both "safe - haven" and "risk - asset" attributes. It can resist inflation and is an important part of global asset allocation [43]. III. Fundamental Logic 1. Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2025, global central bank gold purchases reached a high level, though the pace slowed down. Some central banks increased their holdings, while others sold gold. De - dollarization is expected to continue in 2026, and central bank gold purchases will remain a fundamental demand for gold [49]. 2. Gold Investment Demand - In 2025, global gold total demand reached a record high, mainly driven by investment demand. Gold ETFs and physical gold investment demand increased, while gold jewelry demand declined in quantity but increased in value. Gold supply also increased [52]. 3. Silver Supply - The silver supply side has strong constraints, with limited growth in mineral and recycled silver. In 2025 and 2026, the total supply is expected to increase slightly [55]. 4. Silver Demand - Industrial demand accounts for nearly 60% of total silver demand. In 2025, total silver demand is expected to decline slightly, and industrial demand has different trends in different fields. AI is expected to be an important source of future demand growth [58]. 5. Silver Supply - Demand Gap - The silver market has been in short supply for five consecutive years, and the gap is expected to continue in 2026. The available inventory is extremely limited, and the price elasticity is high [62]. 6. Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio reflects the premium of gold over silver in terms of safe - haven demand. It is affected by economic cycles, inflation, and other factors. Currently, the ratio has dropped to a relatively low level, and there is room for further adjustment [63][64]. 7. Asset Management and ETF Holdings - For gold, the non - commercial net long position in the COMEX market has decreased, while the holdings of the largest gold ETF have increased. For silver, both the non - commercial net long position in the COMEX market and the holdings of the largest silver ETF have decreased [68][71]. 8. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart of London gold shows an upward trend, and the weekly chart of London silver shows a correction within the upward channel [76][77]. IV. Summary and Outlook - In February, the price ranges of London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver are predicted. After the adjustment, there may be medium - to - long - term investment opportunities, and it is recommended to buy on dips [80].