Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean oil market is currently mixed with both bullish and bearish factors. The Y2601 contract may oscillate widely between 8250 - 8450 in the short - term and is expected to rise in the long - term. Consider buying out - of - the - money call options or going long on the 01 contract bean oil - meal ratio [3]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may lead to a significant reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. The rapeseed market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [3]. - Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is advisable to go long with a light position [4]. - The corn and corn starch markets are under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [6]. - The hog market is in a low - level consolidation phase. It is advisable to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed and then consider going long on the 2601 contract [9]. - The egg market has rebounded. It is recommended to avoid short - selling rashly and consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [9]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - For soybeans (including bean one and bean two), the supply is expected to increase, and the market is expected to be bearish or volatile. For peanuts, the new season has increased production and reduced costs, and the market is expected to be volatile. For soy oil, the market is expected to be slightly bullish. For rapeseed oil, the market is expected to be slightly bullish. For palm oil, the market is expected to be slightly bearish. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the market is expected to be volatile. For corn and starch, the market is under pressure. For hogs, the market is expected to rebound. For eggs, the market is expected to find a bottom [12]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - month spreads, it is recommended to wait and see for most varieties, except for the 3 - 5 spread of soybean meal (go long on the spread) and the 1 - 3 spread of hogs (go long on the spread at a low price) and the 10 - 1 spread of eggs (go long on the spread at a low price). For inter - commodity spreads, it is recommended to go short on the 01 soybean oil - palm oil spread, go long on the 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, and go long on the 01 bean oil - meal ratio [13][14]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various commodities in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [15]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, such as the CNF price, import duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, including soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3. Livestock - It provides daily and weekly data on hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, production, consumption, and inventory data [21][23][25]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - It includes a large number of charts related to the livestock, oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, such as the closing prices of futures contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and consumption data of various commodities [26][35][60]. Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides the historical volatility charts of various commodities' options, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [94]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides the warehouse receipt quantity charts of various commodities, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugarcane production recovery exceeds expectations, putting pressure on the global sugar market. In China, new - season sugar production is expected to increase, and imports are high, but the spot price is stable due to thin inventory. Zhengzhou sugar futures are hovering at a low level [4]. - **Pulp**: As the peak season approaches, downstream demand for pulp replenishment may increase, but the magnitude is uncertain. The pulp market is stabilizing, and the recent listing of offset paper may support pulp futures. However, the upward drive for pulp prices is insufficient, and it is likely to trade in a low - level range [5]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper is stable, and there are expectations of improved demand in the peak season, which supports the futures price. But the fundamental situation is still weak, and the upward price movement may be limited [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The USDA September report has a slightly positive impact on the global cotton market, but the market is still under pressure. In China, there is a game between tight old - season supply and expected loose new - season supply, and cotton futures are likely to fluctuate within a range [9]. - **Apples**: The impact of the old - season apples on the market is coming to an end. The market is focused on the new - season production and quality. Apple futures are expected to trade within a range [10]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price fell sharply. The inventory is being depleted, and the market is in a state of seeking a direction. Aggressive investors can short the 2601 contract, while cautious investors can hold a short 01 and long 05 spread position [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, use a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, consider shorting at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [19]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, stay on the sidelines. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish view within the range. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds. For Cotton 2601, use a range - trading strategy [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In July, China's fresh apple exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of September, the cold - storage inventory decreased. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production. The spot price in Shandong is stable, and the market in the sales area is also stable [20][21][22]. - **Jujube Market**: The inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly. The market in the sales area is light, and the mentality of holders is divided [23]. - **Sugar Market**: The USDA's September report shows the sugar production and inventory/consumption ratio in the US. The ICE 11 - sugar non - commercial net short position increased. The domestic sugar spot price is stable [24][26]. - **Pulp Market**: The decline in domestic spot and futures prices of bleached softwood pulp has suppressed import volume. The price of bleached hardwood pulp has been raised twice [29]. - **Offset Paper Market**: The market is basically stable. The trading atmosphere is weak, and prices in different regions are stable [30][31]. - **Cotton Market**: India's cotton production and import expectations have increased, and its ending inventory has risen. In the US, the sales and inventory data of clothing and fabric in July show certain trends [32][33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2601, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are provided [34]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and cotton are presented [39]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific analysis content provided, only related charts are mentioned [51]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apples, jujubes, sugar, and cotton are in a state of range - bound trading, and the recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific analysis content provided, only related charts are mentioned [68]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [89]. - **Sugar Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [96]. - **Cotton Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [101].

期货研究院 新能源产业链日度策略 New Energy Industry Chain daily Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂： 【市场逻辑】 现货方面，SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格72380元/吨，环比上一工 作日下跌18元/吨；电池级碳酸锂7.13-7.36万元/吨，均价7.245万 元/吨，与上一工作日持平；工业级碳酸锂6.96-7.08万元/吨，均价 7.02万元/吨，与上一工作日持平。今日碳酸锂期货价格出现小幅反 弹，主力合约处在7.2-7.3万元/吨之间震 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 沪铜近期实现向上突破，站稳8万整数关口，创出二季度以来新高 。美国8月非农数据不及预期，且大幅下修前值。美国8月PPI低于 预期，通胀较为温和，市场计价美联储年内3次降息的可能性，美 元指数走弱，提振铜价。近期铜价的走高一定程度抑制了国内下 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: The latest news on raw sugar is bearish. Brazil has increased its estimates of sugarcane planting area and production, and the harvest is expected to exceed market expectations. Domestic sugar prices have stopped falling, with low inventory and high import processing costs providing some support. The future trend depends on the performance of raw sugar in the international market [4]. - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp industry chain has not changed significantly. The market is weak, and the supply and demand situation remains to be observed. Although the decline in China's pulp imports has alleviated the supply pressure, it is necessary to pay attention to when producers will reduce shipments to the Chinese market. The price is expected to be range - bound at a low level [6]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable, and the market expects an improvement in demand during the peak season. However, the upward driving force is not clear, and the profit and price increase may be limited [8][9]. - **Cotton**: The external market is under pressure, but there are also some supporting factors. The domestic market is in a game between tight old - season supply and loose new - season expectations, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. Fresh Fruit Sector - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuates. The market is mainly concerned about the difference between the expected and actual situation of the new season's production and quality. The price is expected to move within a range [12]. - **Jujube**: The futures price shows a weak and volatile trend. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the price has rebounded seasonally. The new - season production and quality will be determined in September [13]. Trading Strategies - **Sugar**: Due to the bearish news on raw sugar, it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the main contract is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure level is 5580 - 5600 [5]. - **Paper Pulp**: Although the price may be supported in the short term, the upward driving force is not clear. It is recommended to be bearish after a rebound. The 2511 contract has a support level of 4900 - 4950 yuan and a pressure level of 5100 - 5200 yuan [7]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The upward driving force is not clear, and the price increase may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 4000 - 4100 yuan and the pressure at 4400 - 4500 yuan. Consider reverse calendar spreads and long - pulp short - paper spreads, and try short positions near the pressure level [10]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to maintain a range - trading idea. The support range of the 01 contract is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14300 - 14400. For options, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: It is recommended to wait and see. The support range of the 2601 contract is 7500 - 7600, and the pressure range is 8400 - 8500. For options, it is recommended to sell a straddle combination strategy [12]. - **Jujube**: Aggressive investors can hold a reverse calendar spread (short 2601, long 2605) or hold a long position in the 2605 contract and buy a protective put option. It is recommended to take profit on the wide - straddle spread option strategy. The low - level reference range of the 01 contract is 10500 - 10800 points, and the high - level reference range is 11200 - 11500 points [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2601**: Adopt a range - trading idea. The support range is 7700 - 7800, and the pressure range is 8400 - 8500 [21]. - **Jujube 2601**: Take profit on long positions at high prices. The support range is 11000 - 11500, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [21]. - **Sugar 2601**: Wait and see. The support range is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure range is 5580 - 5600 [21]. - **Paper Pulp 2511**: Short within the range. The support range is 4900 - 4950, and the pressure range is 5150 - 5200 [21]. - **Double - Offset Paper 2601**: Short on rebounds. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4350 - 4400 [21]. - **Cotton 2601**: Adopt a range - trading idea. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [21]. Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review a. Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 8329, up 33 (0.40%) for the week [22]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 11155, up 155 (1.41%) for the week [22]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5540, up 17 (0.31%) for the week [22]. - Paper Pulp 2511 closed at 4990, down 72 (-1.42%) for the week [22]. - Double - Offset Paper 2601 closed at 4224, with no change data provided [22]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13860, down 140 (-1.00%) for the week [22]. b. Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples is 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 0.20 yuan/jin [27]. - The spot price of jujubes is 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous period and 5.30 yuan/kg year - on - year [27]. - The spot price of sugar is 5890 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 500 yuan/ton [27]. - The spot price of paper pulp (Shandong Yinxing) is 5650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 400 yuan/ton [27]. - The spot price of cotton is 15248 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period and up 487 yuan/ton year - on - year [27]. Third Part: Sector Basis Situation - Relevant figures are provided for the basis of apple, jujube, sugar, paper pulp, and cotton, but no specific analysis content is given [37][40][42][44][53]. Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation - Relevant figures are provided for the inter - month spreads of apple, jujube, sugar, and cotton, but no specific analysis content is given [47][48][55] Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple has 0 warehouse receipts, with no change compared to the previous period and the same as the previous year [56]. - Jujube has 9188 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 6 compared to the previous period and an increase of 2906 compared to the previous year [56]. - Sugar has 11599 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 140 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 1927 compared to the previous year [56]. - Paper pulp has 245040 warehouse receipts, an increase of 212 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 233942 compared to the previous year [56]. - Cotton has 5017 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 142 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 2568 compared to the previous year [56]. Sixth Part: Option - Related Data a. Apple Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for apple option trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratios, but no specific analysis content is given [58] b. Sugar Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, historical volatility, and implied volatility, but no specific analysis content is given [59][60][63] c. Cotton Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for cotton option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility, but no specific analysis content is given [67] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation a. Apple - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas**: Relevant figures are provided for minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis content is given [69] - **Export Situation**: Relevant figures are provided for apple export volume, but no specific analysis content is given [71] - **Inventory Situation**: Relevant figures are provided for China's weekly apple storage inventory and that in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis content is given [73] b. Jujube - Relevant figures are provided for the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, but no specific analysis content is given [75] c. Sugar - Relevant figures are provided for national sugar industrial inventory, sugar import volume, and the spot - futures price difference, but no specific analysis content is given [77][79][82] d. Paper Pulp - Relevant figures are provided for domestic 4 - port paper pulp inventory, global producer wood pulp inventory days, production volume of various types of paper, and import volume of broad - leaf and coniferous pulp, but no specific analysis content is given [88][89] e. Double - Offset Paper - Relevant figures are provided for double - offset paper's capacity utilization rate, production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption volume, but no specific analysis content is given [91] f. Cotton - Relevant figures are provided for retail sales, inventory, and other data in the clothing industry in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and textile industry data, but no specific analysis content is given [93][94][100]

| 作者： | 胡彬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | 期货研究院 新能源产业链周度策略 New Energy Industry Chain Weekly Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月12日星期五 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂： 【市场逻辑】 现货方面，周五SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格72398元/吨，环比上 一工作日下跌406元/吨；电池级碳酸锂7.09-7.4万元/吨，均价7.2 45万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌400元/吨；工业级碳酸锂6.96-7. 08万元/吨，均价7.02万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌400元/吨。碳 酸锂期货价格持续横盘低位震荡，下游材 ...

期货研究院 有色金属周度策略 Metal Futures Weekly Strategy 有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 【投资建议】本周沪铜向上突破，创出二季度以来新高。美国非农 数据不及预期，大幅下修前值。美国8月PPI低于预期，通胀较为温 和，市场计价美联储年内3次降息的可能性，美元指数走弱，提振 铜价。近期铜价的走高一定程度抑制了下游的需求，叠加进口资源 增加，国内社库出现连续累库。但旺季来临，铜材企业开工率正逐 步提升，当前国内库存总量依旧偏低。8月份中国制造业采购经理 指数(PM ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main contract price of soybean oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fluctuated and declined this week due to obstacles in the transfer of US soybean oil biodiesel obligations and high inventory and slow sales of domestic oils. The USDA supply - demand report in September was bearish, but the market still expected a future reduction in yield per unit. The domestic soybean oil market remains in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The bullish view on soybean oil in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold long positions in the Y2601 contract, with support at 8300 - 8310 and resistance at 8550 - 8600 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on imported Canadian rapeseed are expected to reduce Canadian rapeseed procurement. Increased imports from Russia/Dubai and Australia can partially offset the supply. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons. With the extension of the anti - dumping investigation, there is still uncertainty in Canadian rapeseed trade policies. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory has decreased week - on - week. If Canadian rapeseed imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. It should be treated with a sideways view, with support at 9500 - 9600 and resistance at 9998 - 10333 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil continued its seasonal inventory build - up, with the inventory at the end of August increasing by 4.18% month - on - month to 2.2025 million tons. The production from September 1 - 10 decreased by 3.17% month - on - month, and the expected increase in production in September - October is slowing. The continuous decline of US soybean oil exerts a price - comparison pressure on palm oil. However, due to the pre - festival stocking demand in India, the callback space is relatively limited. The price is expected to move sideways, with support at 9074 - 9100 and resistance at 9700 - 9736 [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The price of soybean meal was strong this week. Due to the severe Sino - US trade situation, the price of domestic soybean meal remained firm. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main contract of soybean meal, with support at 2980 - 3000 and resistance at 3180 - 3200 yuan/ton. The No. 11 contract of Bean No. 2 is expected to be strong with a sideways trend, and it is advisable to hold long positions, with support at 3600 - 3630 and resistance at 3950 - 4000 [3][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed are expected to reduce imports. Increased imports from other regions can partially offset the supply. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase. With the extension of the anti - dumping investigation, there is uncertainty in trade policies. Domestic rapeseed meal has a de - stocking expectation. It should be treated with a sideways view, with support at 2400 - 2438 and resistance at 2632 - 2698 [4][7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, Soybean No. 1 first declined and then rose, showing an overall decline. Early - maturing soybeans in the Northeast market are sporadically on the market, but the purchase volume is small and the price is not representative. As new grains are listed on a large scale, the price of new - season soybeans is expected to become clear. It is not recommended to chase long positions in Soybean No. 1, and it is advisable to short after stabilization. The No. 11 contract should pay attention to the pressure level at 4000 - 4050 yuan/ton and the support level at 3850 - 3900 yuan/ton [7]. - **Peanuts**: The planting area of new - season peanuts nationwide increased by 4.01% year - on - year. Although drought in some areas may affect local yields, there is an overall expectation of increased production. The cost of peanut planting in the Northeast and Henan has decreased year - on - year. The expected increase in production and the decline in planting cost put pressure on the futures price. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season peanuts, the seasonal supply pressure still exists. However, the futures price has partially reflected the increase in production expectation. The short - term decline has slowed down due to the approaching Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. It is recommended to trade sideways with a light short position. The No. 11 contract has support at 7500 - 7510 and resistance at 8020 - 8162 [7]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: This week, the futures prices of corn and corn starch first rose and then fell. In the overseas market, the high - yield of South American corn has been realized, and the pressure of concentrated listing is being released. Although the excellent rate of US corn has slightly decreased and there are concerns about dry weather and pests, the expectation of a good harvest remains unchanged. In the domestic market, there is a game between the purchasing enthusiasm due to low channel inventory and seasonal pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. For the No. 11 contract of corn, the support range is 2100 - 2120, and the resistance range is 2240 - 2250. For the No. 11 contract of corn starch, the support range is 2400 - 2420, and the resistance range is 2580 - 2590 [8]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs declined weakly over the weekend. The pig - grain ratio has quickly fallen below 6:1, and the breeding profit has deteriorated significantly. Under the "anti - involution" atmosphere of restricting production capacity, the near - term slaughter has increased. It is recommended that cautious investors hold anti - spread positions by shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts, while aggressive investors can hold long positions in the 2511 or 2601 contracts and buy the 2605 contract on dips in the medium term [8][9]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs was strong over the weekend, and some areas continued to rebound. There are concerns about high inventory, which puts pressure on the near - term spot. The seasonal peak season in September needs further confirmation. The 10 - contract lags behind the spot price increase due to being in the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival. It is recommended that aggressive investors buy the 10 - or 11 - contract on dips, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between the 11 - and 1 - month contracts [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Sector and Variety Analysis**: Different sectors and varieties have different market logics, supply - demand situations, support and resistance levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, in the oilseed sector, Soybean No. 11 is expected to decline with a sideways trend, and it is advisable to wait and see; in the protein sector, the No. 01 contract of soybean meal is expected to be strong with a sideways trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions [12]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy - **Basis Data**: The report provides the spot prices, price changes, main - contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors such as oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [13][14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The daily data table shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, including arrival premiums, CBOT or ICE futures prices, CNF arrival prices, arrival - duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data table presents the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the port inventory of soybeans, the oil - mill inventory of soybean meal, and the coastal - oil - factory inventory of rapeseeds [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Corn and Corn Starch Data**: The table shows the current values, week - on - week changes, and year - on - year changes of indicators such as the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the inventory of corn in deep - processing enterprises, the operating rate of starch enterprises, and the inventory of starch enterprises [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Pig Market Data**: It includes the spot prices, cost, profit, slaughter data, and other key weekly data of the pig market, such as the average weekly prices of二元 sows, 7KG outer - ternary piglets, and outer - ternary pigs [19]. - **Egg Market Data**: It provides data on the supply, demand, profit, and related spot prices of the egg market, such as the proportion of large, medium, and small eggs, the production rate, and the inventory in the production and circulation links [20]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Pigs and Eggs)**: The charts track the closing prices of the main contracts, spot prices, and other related prices of pigs and eggs [22][24][25][29]. - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: The charts show the monthly production, export volume, inventory, and other data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the import profit, import volume, and domestic inventory of palm oil [33][34][36]. - **Soybean Oil**: The charts display the soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, and crushing profit in the US, as well as the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, inventory, and trading volume [39][40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The charts present the arrival and shipment volumes of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the peanut crushing profit, and the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in pressing plants [46][48]. - **Feed Sector** - **Corn**: The charts track the spot price, futures closing price, basis, inventory, import volume, and consumption of corn, as well as the processing profit of corn ethanol in different regions [50][52][54]. - **Corn Starch**: The charts show the spot price, futures closing price, basis, operating rate, inventory, and profit of corn starch enterprises [57][59][60]. - **Rapeseed**: The charts display the spot prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the basis, inventory, and pressing volume of rapeseed in coastal oil mills [62][64][66]. - **Soybean Meal**: The charts show the flowering and pod - setting rates of US soybeans, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China [70][71]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - **Volatility and Option Data**: The report provides the historical volatility of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [73][77][80]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The report shows the warehouse receipt data of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indices [83][84][89]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous sector is expected to oscillate and gradually recover. The expectation of interest rate cuts is warming up, demand expectations are favorable, and market sentiment is improving. China's manufacturing data shows a slight improvement, while the US manufacturing growth is slowing down, and inflation is moderately rising, further boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts [12]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to strengthen with an upward - moving price center; zinc is expected to fluctuate and rebound with limited downward pressure; aluminum is in a high - level oscillation; tin is in a high - level oscillation with a supply - demand weak pattern; lead is in an interval fluctuation; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be bullish in the short - term [3][4][5][6][8][9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part I: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector is oscillating and recovering. China's manufacturing data shows a slight improvement, and the US manufacturing growth is slowing down while inflation is moderately rising, boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts. The market sentiment is turning positive [12]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: The supply - demand situation is turning favorable, with demand rising faster than supply. The price center is expected to move up. Suggested to buy on dips, with a support range of 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton [3][14]. - **Zinc**: Supply is increasing while demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate and rebound with limited downward pressure. Suggested to be bullish in the short - term, with a support range of 21600 - 21800 and a pressure range of 22800 - 23200 [4][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It is recommended to wait and see. Aluminum is in a high - level oscillation, alumina is weakly oscillating, and cast aluminum alloy is in a consolidation phase [5][14]. - **Tin**: It is in a high - level oscillation with a supply - demand weak pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 250000 - 255000 and a pressure range of 270000 - 290000 [6][14]. - **Lead**: It is in an interval fluctuation. It is suggested to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 16600 - 16800 and a pressure range of 17200 - 17400 [8][14]. - **Nickel**: It is expected to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 115000 - 116000 and a pressure range of 123000 - 125000 [9][16]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is recommended to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 12700 - 12800 and a pressure range of 13000 - 13200 [9][16]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Quotes**: Copper closed at 80110 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase; zinc closed at 22285 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decrease; aluminum closed at 20710 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decrease; alumina closed at 2992 yuan/ton with a 0.99% decrease; tin closed at 273120 yuan/ton with a 0.31% decrease; lead closed at 16865 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase; nickel closed at 121790 yuan/ton with a 0.60% decrease; stainless steel closed at 12915 yuan/ton with a 0.35% decrease; cast aluminum alloy closed at 20285 yuan/ton with a 0.07% decrease [17]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal futures contracts have different net long - short positions and changes. For example, the main contract of Shanghai Gold (AU2510) has a strong long - position, while the main contract of Shanghai Copper (CU2510) has a relatively strong short - position [19]. Part IV: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper is 80540 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc is 22250 yuan/ton with a 0.36% increase; the average spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum is 20720 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase; the average national price of Antaike alumina is 3204 yuan/ton with a 0.25% decrease [20]. Part V: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides various charts related to the industry chain of different non - ferrous metals, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price relationships, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [24][27][30]. Part VI: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report presents charts related to the arbitrage of different non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices and the spread between futures contracts [57][59][61]. Part VII: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides charts related to the options of different non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, and aluminum, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume - position changes [74][76][79].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Futures Research Institute's Daily Strategy Report on the Breeding and Oilseed Industry Chain [3][8] - Authors: Wang Liangliang, Hou Zhifang, Wang Yibo, Song Congzhi [1] - Completion time: September 3, 2025 [1] Group 2: Sector Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1, Contract 11 | New domestic soybeans are gradually entering the market, and domestic soybean auctions continue, increasing supply. | 3850 - 3900 | 4145 - 4150 | Sideways with a bearish bias | Hold short positions | | | Soybean No. 2, Contract 11 | Uncertainty in supply due to possible increase in fourth - quarter South American soybean purchases. | 3600 - 3630 | 3950 - 4000 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | | Peanut, Contract 11 | Expected increase in new - season production, lower costs, and increasing market supply. Pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is starting. | 7500 - 7600 | 8100 - 8162 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean oil, Contract 01 | Uncertainty in fourth - quarter supply, weak current situation, and expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports. | 8230 - 8300 | 8800 - 9000 | Sideways with a bullish bias | Go long after stabilization | | | Rapeseed oil, Contract 01 | Increased supply | 9500 - 9580 | 9998 - 10343 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | | Palm oil, Contract 01 | Price pressure from lower US soybean oil prices, but poor Malaysian palm oil production. | 9074 - 9200 | 9736 - 9990 | Sideways adjustment | Go long on dips with a light position | | Proteins | Soybean meal, Contract 01 | Uncertainty in supply due to possible increase in fourth - quarter South American soybean purchases, and decreasing fourth - quarter consumption. | 2980 - 3000 | 3180 - 3200 | Sideways with a bullish bias | Go long after stabilization | | | Rapeseed meal, Contract 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, poor cost - performance, and weak consumption. | 2400 - 2438 | 2632 - 2698 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn, Contract 11 | Fundamental pressure remains, but the decline slows down at low prices. | 2100 - 2120 | 2240 - 2250 | Low - level sideways | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch, Contract 11 | Slower decline in corn prices at the cost end, and a slightly loose spot market. | 2400 - 2420 | 2580 - 2590 | Low - level sideways | Hold short positions cautiously | | Breeding | Live pigs, Contract 11 | Feed prices stop falling and rebound, and the expectation of capacity reduction strengthens. | 13500 - 13750 | 14500 - 15000 | Sideways rebound | Hold long positions | | | Eggs, Contract 10 | Capacity pressure and expected peak consumption season | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Sideways bottom - seeking | Go long on dips | [11] 2.2 Commodity Arbitrage | Sector | Spread Type | Current Value | Previous Value | Change | Reference Strategy | Reference Target | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1, 11 - 1 | 0 | 7 | - 7 | Wait and see | - | | | Soybean No. 2, 11 - 1 | - 35 | - 32 | - 3 | Wait and see | - | | | Peanut, 10 - 11 | 172 | 180 | - 8 | Wait and see | - | | Oils | Soybean oil, 1 - 5 | 296 | 288 | 8 | Wait and see | - | | | Rapeseed oil, 9 - 1 | 20 | - 173 | 193 | Wait and see | - | | | Palm oil, 9 - 1 | - 22 | - 42 | 20 | Wait and see | - | | Proteins | Soybean meal, 3 - 5 | 182 | 173 | 9 | Bull spread | 300 - 400 | | | Rapeseed meal, 9 - 1 | 41 | 53 | - 12 | Wait and see | - | | Energy and By - products | Corn, 11 - 1 | 11 | 17 | - 6 | Wait and see | - | | | Starch, 11 - 1 | - 33 | - 30 | - 3 | Wait and see | - | | Breeding | Live pigs, 1 - 3 | - 765 | - 765 | 0 | Bull spread on dips | - | | | Eggs, 10 - 1 | - 425 | - 425 | 0 | Bull spread on dips | - | | Oils (Cross - variety) | 01 Soybean oil - Palm oil | - 1002 | - 1066 | 64 | Bearish operation | - | | | 01 Rapeseed oil - Soybean oil | 1361 | 1410 | - 49 | Bullish operation | - | | | 09 Rapeseed oil - Palm oil | 1446 | 1528 | - 82 | Wait and see | - | | Proteins (Cross - variety) | 01 Soybean meal - Rapeseed meal | 545 | 550 | - 5 | Low - level sideways | - | | Oil - meal ratio | 01 Soybean oil - meal ratio | 2.73 | 2.74 | - 0.01 | Bullish operation | 2.8 - 2.82 | | | 09 Rapeseed oil - meal ratio | 3.86 | 3.90 | - 0.04 | Wait and see | - | | Energy and By - products (Cross - variety) | 11 Starch - Corn | 294 | 305 | - 11 | Wait and see | 300 - 400 | [12][13] 2.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Price Change | Main Contract Basis | Basis Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 4060 | 0 | 99 | 94 | | | Soybean No. 2 | 3850 | 0 | 67 | - 11 | | | Peanut | 7400 | 0 | - 342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean oil | 8750 | 0 | 334 | 0 | | | Rapeseed oil | 9870 | 40 | 143 | - 35 | | | Palm oil | 9400 | 70 | 32 | 124 | | Proteins | Soybean meal | 3020 | 0 | - 6 | - 6 | | | Rapeseed meal | 2600 | 0 | 79 | - 21 | | Energy and By - products | Corn | 2270 | 0 | 67 | 7 | | | Starch | 2660 | 0 | 173 | - 11 | | Breeding | Live pigs | 13.93 yuan/kg | - 0.10 yuan/kg | 600 | 45 | | | Eggs | 2.80 yuan/jin | 0 | 239 | - 2 | [14] Group 3: Key Data Tracking 3.1 Oilseeds and Oils 3.1.1 Daily Data - Import cost data for soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates are provided, including CNF prices, landed duty - paid prices, and estimated meal costs when the crushing profit is zero [16][17] 3.1.2 Weekly Data | Variety | Inventory | Operating Rate | | --- | --- | --- | | Soybeans | Port inventory: 684.20 ( + 3.16) | - | | Soybean meal | Oil mill inventory: 107.88 ( + 2.55) | 61.00% | | Soybean oil | Port inventory: 118.10 ( + 4.10) | - 1.00% | | Rapeseeds | Coastal oil mill inventory: 12.90 ( - 2.40) | 28.03% | | Rapeseed meal | Coastal area inventory: 2.50 ( + 0.40) | - | | Rapeseed oil | East China commercial inventory: 55.40 ( + 1.80) | - 0.80% | | Palm oil | Inventory: 61 ( + 3) | - | | Peanuts | Inventory: 76130 ( - 7070) | 6.32% | | Peanut oil | Inventory: 38530 ( - 320) | 1.58% | [18][19] 3.2 Feed 3.2.1 Daily Data - Import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil in October and November are provided, including CNF prices and landed duty - paid costs [19] 3.2.2 Weekly Data | Indicator | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Deep - processing enterprise corn consumption (10,000 tons) | 100.63 | + 0.42 | - 16.14 | | Deep - processing enterprise corn inventory (10,000 tons) | 294.20 | - 20.50 | + 7.40 | | Starch enterprise operating rate (%) | 47.70 | - 3.31 | - 6.64 | | Starch enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | 126.50 | - 5.30 | + 126.50 | [20] 3.3 Breeding 3.3.1 Live Pigs - Daily data shows the price changes of live pigs, piglets, pork wholesale prices, and related ratios in different regions on September 3, 2025 [21] - Weekly data includes information on live pig prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and other aspects [25] 3.3.2 Eggs - Daily data shows the price changes of eggs and淘汰 chickens in different regions on September 3, 2025 [22] - Weekly data focuses on supply - side indicators (such as egg - laying rate, hen age at culling, and culling volume), demand - side indicators (such as sales volume and inventory), and profit - related data [23][24] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Charts are provided for the breeding end (live pigs and eggs), oilseeds and oils (palm oil, soybean oil, peanuts), and the feed end (corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal), showing various data such as production, inventory, price spreads, and historical volatility [26][35][54] Group 5: Options and Warehouse Receipts 5.1 Options - Charts show the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [87][88][89] 5.2 Warehouse Receipts - Charts display the warehouse receipt situations of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [90][91][93]