农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 周二，郑糖主力合约止跌反弹，主力 ...

养殖油脂研究中心|农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月20日星期六 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链周度策略报告 摘要 豆油：本周，豆油主力合约大幅下挫。南美大豆主产区天气较好， 美豆出口速度放缓，CBOT大豆承压运行。中加贸易关系或有向好 预期，菜油下跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but with increased volatility. After the digestion of macro - negative sentiments and supported by fundamentals, most non - ferrous metals have shown a recovery. However, there are still differences in strength among different varieties. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the resonance between fundamentals and macro - drivers [11][12]. - The market is currently affected by multiple factors such as the US interest - rate cut expectations, potential Japanese interest - rate hikes, fluctuations in technology stocks, and changes in economic data in China and the US. The performance of each non - ferrous metal variety is affected by both macro - environment and its own fundamentals [11][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. After the digestion of negative factors and with the support of fundamentals, the sector is recovering. There are differences in performance among different varieties. Key factors include the US interest - rate cut expectations, potential Japanese interest - rate hikes, and fluctuations in technology stocks [11]. - **Economic Data**: In China, from January to November, real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 7.8% year - on - year. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods dropped to 1.3%. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year. In the US, the unemployment rate in November rose to a four - year high, and the retail sales in October were generally flat [11]. - **Investment Recommendations**: | Variety | Operation Logic | Support Area | Pressure Area | Market Judgment | Strategy | Recommendation Intensity | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | Affected by factors such as US employment data and market sentiment, with improved downstream acceptance of high prices and a structural contradiction in global copper inventory, the copper price is expected to rise. | 90000 - 91000 | 94500 - 95000 | Oscillating upward | Buy on dips | +1 | | Zinc | With a good short - term fundamental situation and affected by factors such as supply reduction and demand changes, the market is oscillating. | 22800 - 23000 | 23500 - 23800 | Oscillating consolidation | Wait - and - see | +0.5 | | Aluminum Industry Chain | The aluminum market is in an oscillating adjustment phase, with an oversupply situation in alumina and a complex situation in the aluminum downstream. | 21000 - 21300; 2000 - 2200; 20000 - 20400 | 23000 - 24000; 2800 - 3000; 21500 - 21800 | Aluminum oscillating adjustment; Alumina oscillating at the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy oscillating adjustment | Wait - and - see or buy on dips; Sell on rallies; Wait - and - see or buy on dips | +0.5/-0.5/+0.5 | | Tin | Affected by supply and demand factors such as smelter production and consumption, the market is oscillating. | 290000 - 300000 | 335000 - 340000 | Oscillating consolidation | Wait - and - see for the time being | - 0.5 | | Lead | Affected by factors such as smelter production and demand changes in lead - acid battery enterprises, the price is oscillating weakly. | 16500 - 16600 | 17200 - 17300 | Oscillating weakly | Double - selling strategy | - 0.5 | | Nickel | Affected by factors such as potential RKAB quota reduction in Indonesia and supply - demand changes, the price is rebounding. | 110000 - 112000 | 120000 - 122000 | Rebound | Short - term rebound | +1 | | Stainless Steel | In a period of weak supply and demand, with reduced production in December and weak demand. | 12200 - 12300 | 12700 - 12800 | Repeated at low levels | Wait - and - see for the time being | +0.5 | [13][14][15][16] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price change rates of various non - ferrous metals are presented in a table. For example, copper closed at 92600 with a - 0.24% change, and zinc closed at 23030 with a 0.26% change [17]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector includes information on the price change rate, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base value, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as Shanghai silver, Shanghai tin, and industrial silicon [19]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price change rates of various non - ferrous metals are presented in a table. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 92430 yuan/ton with a 0.10% change, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 23140 yuan/ton with a 0.52% change [20][21][22]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Relevant data charts of various non - ferrous metals industry chains are presented, including copper inventory changes, zinc inventory changes, and aluminum inventory and price trends [25][28][31]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Relevant data charts for arbitrage analysis of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the zinc Shanghai - London ratio change [57][58]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Relevant data charts for option analysis of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the historical volatility of copper options and the weighted implied volatility of zinc options [75][77].

成文时间：2025年12月17日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 铜： 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 美国10月非农数据低于市场预期，同时下修8-9月非农就业数据，1 1月失业率升至近年新高。美国联邦基金期货小幅提高了明年1月降 息的几率，从之前的22%升至31%。市场对日本央行加息预期基本 消化，全球风险偏好回升，日间国内权益资产走高，白 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 美联储12月如期降息25BP，为年内连续第三次降息，同时将启动 扩表，本月开始进行400亿美元规模的短债购买。鲍威尔表态比市 场预期偏鸽。近期铜金融属性开始显现，金铜比修复。但市场担忧 日本央行加息，引发铜价短期承压。美国市场的虹吸效应进一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Crude Oil Market Trend Review - Reviews the historical trends of crude oil from 1983 - 2025 and the trend in 2025 [4][5] - Analyzes the trading volume and open interest of domestic crude oil futures [4] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis No detailed content is provided, but it includes IMF's global economic growth forecast, relationships between global and major - country manufacturing PMI, CPI, PPI, and oil prices [5] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply Analysis - Global crude oil supply is expected to maintain growth in 2026 [4] - OPEC+ suspended production increases in Q1 2026 but may continue to release production capacity later [4] - US crude oil output will slow down further [4] - Global geopolitical turmoil continues to affect crude oil supply [4] 3.4 Crude Oil Demand Analysis - The growth rate of global oil demand is expected to decline [4] - The increase in US oil demand is limited [4] - European oil demand is expected to remain sluggish [4] - China's oil consumption has increased significantly [4] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - Presents EIA/OPEC/IEA's crude oil supply - demand balance data from 2021 - 2026, including total supply, total demand, and supply - demand differences [62] 3.6 Crude Oil Options Analysis - Analyzes the trading volume and open interest of crude oil options [4] - Analyzes crude oil options strategies [4] 3.7 Technical and Seasonal Analysis - Conducts technical analysis [4] - Conducts seasonal analysis [4] 3.8 Outlook for the Future No detailed content is provided. 3.9 Statistics of Related Stock Prices and Price Changes - Lists the stock abbreviations, codes, latest prices, and year - to - date price changes of multiple crude - oil - related stocks [79]

请务必阅读最后重要事项 ➢ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ | 1 | | --- | | 1 | | 4 | | 6 | | 8 | | 9 | | 9 | | 9 | | 11 | | 12 | | 13 | | 14 | | 15 | | 15 | | 16 | | 16 | | 17 | | 18 | | 18 | | 19 | | 20 | | 21 | | 22 | | 22 | | 23 | | 24 | | 25 | | 图1：橡胶指数价格行情回顾 2 | | --- | | 图2：橡胶历史大周期行情回顾 2 | | 图3：大类资产价格分位图 3 | | 图4：收盘价:天然橡胶:上海主力合约 3 | | 图5：收盘价:20号胶:上海主力合约 4 | | 图6：上海期货交易所:成交量:当月值 5 | | 图7：持仓量:橡胶指数 5 | | 图8：成交量:橡胶指数 5 | | 图9：持仓量:20号胶指数 5 | | 图10：成交量:20号胶指数 5 | | 图11：仓单数量:天然橡胶:总计 6 | | 图12：仓单数量:20号胶:总计 6 | | 图13：橡胶主力：虚实盘比 6 | | 图14：20号胶主力：虚实盘比 ...

中国宏观经济 2026 年年报 中国宏观经济：今朝虽未开盛宴 街头巷尾已 闻钟 ——2025 年中国宏观经济回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 宏观金融与航运团队 李彦森 Z0013871 ➢ 摘要： 2025 年以来经济整体走弱，四个季度 GDP 增速逐步下行，即使排除四季度基数因 素，增量贡献也有所减弱。从需求角度看，消费表现稳定是主要支持，背后以来消费 补贴等政策驱动，本质仍是财政政策的出口。净出口带动力先升后降，整体表现超预 期，且绝对贡献超过投资。投资表现不佳，贡献相对最低。尤其是三季度开始进一步 走弱。其中地产维持长期下行趋势不变，基建投资受到资金端影响，制造业投资与中 美贸易冲突后企业信心变动有关。此外，年内经济运行逻辑出现明显两段变动：上半 年是高实际增速叠加通缩，名义 GDP 表现并不佳；下半年转向通缩修复同时产出减 速，名义 GDP 放缓程度收窄。"反内卷"政策是最主要的影响因素，且其局部性影响 仍将继续体现。我们认为，2026 年库存周期将迎来修复，节奏上看底部或位于二季度， 全年经济将呈现前低后高态势，内生动能有所增强。同时中美贸易紧张关系缓和，逆 全球化趋势放慢后也有利于外 ...

请务必阅读最后重要事项 ➢ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ | 1 | | --- | | 1 | | 7 | | 8 | | 8 | | 8 | | 11 | | 13 | | 14 | | 15 | | 15 | | 16 | | 17 | | 20 | | 20 | | 22 | | 22 | | 22 | | 24 | | 25 | | 2 | | --- | | 3 | | 3 | | 4 | | 4 | | 5 | | 5 | | 5 | | 5 | | 6 | | 6 | | 6 | | 6 | | 6 | | 6 | | 7 | | 7 | | 7 | | 7 | | 8 | | 8 | | 8 | | 9 | | 9 | | 10 | | 10 | | 10 | | 10 | | 10 | | 10 | | 11 | | 11 | | 11 | | 11 | | 12 | | 12 | | 12 | | 12 | | 12 | | 13 | | 13 | | 13 | | 13 | | 14 | | 15 | | 15 | | 15 | | --- | | 15 | | 16 | | 16 | | 16 | | ...

生猪市场2026年年报 生猪：冬藏未尽 春芽尚伏 -2025年生猪市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 宋从志 Z0020712 ▷ 摘要： ● 2025年商品整体仍然呈现高开低走,特朗普的关税及国内"反内卷"政策令部分商品 波动率显著上升,全年时间来看金融类资产仍然延续强势表现,但大宗商品受制于近端压 力偏大,部分价格跌至 2016年供给侧改革前的起点。本轮农产品未处于国内政策干预的 核心,且农产品整体商品属性较强,金融属性不足,受宏观流动性影响较小,全年大部分 时间受制于周期性压力价格表现较弱。其中养殖产业链下游领跌,生猪期现价格在 2025 年三季度末创年内新低,肥猪及仔猪价格逐步跌破养殖成本。本轮盈利周期始于2024年 3 月份,猪企累计经过15个月左右的较高水平盈利,集团企业现金流及资产负债表得到一 定程度的改善,但行业整体以降本增效为主要经营目标,行业固定资产投资减少,再扩张 步划趋缓,因此行业绝对产能水平未有明显增加,但高水平盈利激励下,单位母猪的生产 效能得到较大提高,行业平均 PSY 由此前 24 提高至 26 以上,部分头部企业接近 29,这 是影响 2025年生猪供给 ...