Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In April 2025, the escalation of Sino-US tariffs put pressure on commodities, but agricultural products were relatively resilient, and the pig market was less directly affected. The far - end breeding cost was difficult to further reduce, and the spot price was stable due to the end of the seasonal off - season [3]. - In 2025, the pig slaughter volume increased year - on - year, but the pressure was not significant. The production efficiency of sows improved, but the overall increase in the number of breeding sows was limited [4]. - From May to June 2025, the probability of pig prices falling below the breeding cost is low. The feed cost is difficult to decline, and the upstream of the pig industry has not accumulated excessive risks [5]. - In the context of the expected increase in pig supply in the first half of 2025, attention should be paid to whether there are unexpected changes in the demand side. It is advisable to go long on pig futures when the price is below 13,000 points or buy call options near the cost [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Review of Pig Futures and Spot Prices in April 2025 - The escalation of Sino - US tariffs in April injected positive factors into the feed and breeding industry chain, with feed raw materials leading the rise in agricultural products [8]. - Pig futures prices opened high and closed low in April, and the 2505 contract made up for the premium to the spot. The current absolute and relative prices of pigs are at historical lows, and the ratio of pig to feed on the disk is close to historical lows [10][12][15]. - In April, the price of 7 - kg weaned piglets stopped rising and adjusted, the price of fattening pigs fell, and the price difference between standard and fat pigs inverted. The price of feed oscillated and rose, and the terminal consumption improved marginally [17][20][21]. - The spot price of pigs in the second quarter is prone to seasonal strength, with an average increase probability of 62% - 82% from May to August in the past [39]. 2. Pig Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The inventory of breeding sows has increased by about 5% compared with March 2024. The prices of culled sows and replacement sows remained stable in April [42][43]. - The production efficiency of single - sow has improved, and the gap between leading enterprises has gradually narrowed. Pig slaughter volume in May 2025 continued to increase due to the recovery of sow production capacity and improved production efficiency [45][49]. 3. Situation of Listed Pig Enterprises - In April, the slaughter volume of leading group companies decreased slightly month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year. The sales volume of piglets of listed companies decreased month - on - month, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies is at a historical high [54][55][58]. 4. Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - In April 2025, the price difference between standard and fat pigs rebounded rapidly, and the price of fat pigs was lower than that of standard pigs. The slaughter weight in May is likely to fall seasonally and is currently at a historical high [62][65]. - The slaughter volume in May decreased seasonally but was higher than the same period last year, and the supply of standard pigs in the market was sufficient. The import volume of pork and offal decreased from the high level, and the expected import volume of beef in the second quarter will decline month - on - month [68][71][74]. - The frozen product inventory rebounded slightly from the low level in April. The current monthly average profit level is at the historical median. In April, both purchased piglets and self - breeding and self - raising were profitable, but the profit level decreased slightly [77][80][81]. 5. Pig Futures Price and Market Outlook - In April, pig futures prices opened high and closed low, and near - month contracts were more resilient than far - month contracts. The pig index is at a historical low, and the trading volume decreased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year [87][88]. - The 2505 contract rebounded from the low level in April to make up for the premium to the spot. The near - month contract is priced near the breeding cost, and the far - month contract has a low premium in the peak season [92][93][96]. - The basis is stronger than the same period in previous years. Attention should be paid to the regression mode of pig spot and futures in the second quarter. There may be opportunities for inter - month reverse arbitrage [99][102]. - In May, attention should be paid to the possible slaughter pressure when the weight is too high. The market volatility in the second quarter is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the systematic fluctuations in the agricultural product sector caused by Trump's tariff policy [107][108].

投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年05月13日星期二 | 作者： | 段智栈 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03140418 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0021604 | | 联系方式： | 18810293832 | 期货研究院 黑色系焦煤焦炭日度策略 摘要 【重要资讯】 黑色建材团队 1.当地时间5月12日上午9:00，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联 合声明》：美国对中国商品征收关税降低至30%，中国对美国商品 征收关税降低至10%。 2.日本首相石破茂表示，日本不会与美国达成一项不包括汽车关税 的初步贸易协定。石破茂还表示，增加从美国进口玉米将是与美国 进行贸易谈判的选项之一。 当天，石破茂表示，日本政府已准备好采取额外刺激措施，来缓解 关税对经济的影响。不过，石破茂对削减日本消费税税率表示谨慎 。 3.5月11日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台Truth Social上发文称 ，"虽然没有进行讨论，但我将大幅增加与印度和巴基斯坦的贸易 往来"。 4.中汽协：今年1至4月份，我国汽车产销量分别完成1017.5万辆和 1006万辆，同比分别增 ...

期货研究院 股指期货日度策略报告 Stock Index Futures Strategy Daily Report 金融衍生品研究中心 | 作者： | 李彦森 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3050205 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0013871 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518392 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年05月13日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 【行情复盘】 周一股指上行步伐有所加快，沪指收涨0.82%。期指主力合约也全 面走升。成交持仓方面，四个品种成交持仓均上升，市场情绪有所 好转。 【重要资讯】 行业来看，31个一级行业大多数上涨，行业涨跌差异上升，结合行 业在指数中所占权重看，非银金融对300和50带动最强，电力设备 带动300，国防军工、电子带动500和1000，医药生物是四大指数 主要拖累。资金方面，主要指数资金全面流入。消息面上看，央行 今日公开市场操作净投放流动性430亿元，短端资金成本小幅下降 。消息显示，中美关税谈判取得突破性进展，双方联合声明确认将 4月2日后增量关税降至 ...

期货研究院 铁合金日度策略 4.中汽协：今年1至4月份，我国汽车产销量分别完成1017.5万辆和 1006万辆，同比分别增长12.9%和10.8%，我国汽车产销量历史上 首次双双突破1000万辆。 黑色建材团队 | 作者： | 段智栈 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03140418 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0021604 | | 联系方式： | 18810293832 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年05月13日星期二 摘要 【重要资讯】 1.当地时间5月12日上午9:00，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联 合声明》：美国对中国商品征收关税降低至30%，中国对美国商品 征收关税降低至10%。 2.日本首相石破茂表示，日本不会与美国达成一项不包括汽车关税 的初步贸易协定。石破茂还表示，增加从美国进口玉米将是与美国 进行贸易谈判的选项之一。 当天，石破茂表示，日本政府已准备好采取额外刺激措施，来缓解 关税对经济的影响。不过，石破茂对削减日本消费税税率表示谨慎 。 3.5月11日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台Truth Social上发文称 ， ...

期货研究院 钢矿日度策略报告 Steel&Iron Futures Daily Trading Strategy Report 黑色金属与建材研究中心 | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年04月18日星期五 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 近期市场情绪受关税方面的消息影响，由于中期关税可能利空黑色 系整体需求，因此螺纹反弹驱动也较弱。从基本面看，短期现货压 力还不大，本周需求表现较好，去库较快，现货压力不大。3月及 一季度国内经济数据表现较强，宽口径基建投资同比增幅扩大，房 地产新开工降幅较1-2月收窄，但施工降幅扩大，制造业投资增速 较高，加之出口也较好，不过一季度经济受美国关税负面影响较小 ，且关税带来的"抢出口"相对利多一季度经济，而二季度关税可 能逐步影响外需及制造业，届时铁水面临回落，炉料供需压力或加 大，成本也将拖累螺纹价格。因此，关税的潜在利空预期仍较强， 短期无法 ...

更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 煤化工产业链周报 Coal Chemical Industry Chain Weekly Report 摘要 行情回顾 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 夏聪聪 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3012139 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0012870 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578010 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年04月07日星期一 市场避险情绪升温，煤化工板块走势偏弱。甲醇、PVC、烧碱承压 回落，上方五日均线附近阻力明显。尿素期货涨势暂缓，重心冲高 后回落。 煤炭市场 【交易策略】关税政策加剧市场波动，避险情绪升温，尿素盘面存 在回调可能，多单建议离场，上方1930-1950附近承压，下方支撑 在1850-1860附近。 ●烧碱 上游煤炭市场维稳运行，报价与前期持平。产地主流煤矿生产平稳 ，货源供应充裕，到矿拉运车辆增加，多数煤矿库存保持在低位水 平，暂无库存压力。下游刚需接货为主，需求步入淡季，支撑力度 偏弱。煤炭市场供需宽松，市场存在下行压力。 ●甲醇 【市场逻辑】成本端 ...

Group 1: Report Structure - The report includes four parts: an overview and trend review of the silicon-based industry chain, an overview of core views, the fundamental situation of industrial silicon, and the fundamental situation of polysilicon [4][17][22] Group 2: Silicon Industry Chain - The industrial silicon industry chain involves upstream raw materials such as quartzite and carbon reducers, midstream products like organic silicon monomers and polysilicon, and downstream applications in construction, electronics, new energy, and other fields [6] Group 3: Industrial Silicon Supply and Demand - The industrial silicon monthly supply - demand balance table shows data from January 2024 to February 2025, including production, imports, various demands, exports, and the supply - demand balance. For example, in February 2025, the supply - demand balance was 0.51 [48] Group 4: Photovoltaic Component Market - China's photovoltaic component exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month in February 2025. Component production continued to decline to meet the industry's requirement of reducing production to support prices, and component prices remained stable near the cost line [54][55] Group 5: Polysilicon Market - The polysilicon cost is composed of electricity (40%), metallic silicon (27%), labor (4%), steam (3%), water (2%), other auxiliary materials (6%), equipment depreciation (15%), and maintenance costs (3%). The polysilicon cost has slightly loosened [71][72][73]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The cost - end oil price will oscillate in a range, providing limited support. Supply may contract slightly during the maintenance season, but new device startups could offset some losses. Demand is likely to improve slightly first and then weaken seasonally. Overall, polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate around the current level. The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade in the range of 7400 - 8500 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract in the range of 6800 - 7800 yuan/ton [78] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Polyolefin Market**: In Q1, polyolefin prices showed different fluctuations with a downward - moving center. In January, prices declined due to new device startups and weakening demand. In February, PE prices rose slightly while PP prices remained weak. In March, prices continued to fall due to oil price adjustments and manufacturers' price - cutting [7] - **Cost - end (Crude Oil)**: Oil prices first rose and then fell in Q1. Looking ahead, oil prices are expected to oscillate around the current level, with geopolitical and supply factors being the main concerns [10] 2. Supply Analysis - **Capacity and New Device Plans**: By the end of 2024, PE capacity was 34.2 million tons, up 9.26% year - on - year, and PP capacity was 43.82 million tons, up 12.68% year - on - year. In 2025, multiple new PE and PP devices are planned to start production [13][14][15] - **Device Profits**: Coal - based polyolefin device profits are acceptable, while other processes perform poorly [16] - **Device Maintenance**: In 2025, PE and PP entered the maintenance season, with increasing maintenance losses. In Q2, supply is expected to contract slightly, but new device startups may offset some losses [18][20][23][26] - **Imports and Exports**: In February 2025, PE imports increased month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports decreased year - on - year. PP imports and exports both increased month - on - month and year - on - year [29][31] - **Inventory**: As of March 28, the inventory of major producers decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [33] 3. Demand Analysis - **PE Demand**: In Q1, PE demand was weak first and then recovered. In Q2, it is expected to continue to improve first and then weaken [44] - **PP Demand**: In Q1, PP demand was weak first and then recovered. In Q2, it is expected to rise first and then fall, with potential pressure from tariffs [48] - **Policy Impact**: The "Two New" policies in 2025 expand subsidy scope and intensity, which is beneficial to terminal consumption demand and stimulates the consumption of plastic products [52][53] 4. Arbitrage and Technical Analysis - **Cross - variety Arbitrage**: In Q1, the L/PP spread fluctuated in an inverted "N" shape. In Q2, there may be structural spread arbitrage opportunities, with an expected fluctuation range of 300 - 600 yuan/ton [67] - **Technical Indicators**: The weekly K - line of PE is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7400 - 8500 yuan/ton, and the PP weekly K - line has reached the lower limit of the oscillation range, with support levels at 7200 yuan/ton and 6800 yuan/ton [69][72] 5. Seasonal Analysis - **LLDPE Seasonal Trend**: Historically, LLDPE has a higher probability of rising in January, June, July, September, and December, and a higher probability of falling in February, March, May, August, October, and November [74] - **PP Seasonal Trend**: Statistically, the PP main contract has a higher probability of rising in January, April, June, July, and September, and a higher probability of falling in February, March, May, August, and October [75] 6. Supply - Demand Gap Analysis - The document provides historical and expected supply - demand gap data for PE and PP from 2017 to 2025 [76][77] 7. Outlook - **Supply**: Supply is expected to contract slightly during the maintenance season, but new device startups may offset some losses [78] - **Demand**: Demand is expected to improve slightly first and then weaken seasonally [78] - **Cost**: Oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range, with geopolitical and supply factors being the main concerns [78] - **Price**: Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate around the current level, with the LLDPE main contract in the range of 7400 - 8500 yuan/ton and the PP main contract in the range of 6800 - 7800 yuan/ton [78]

期货研究院 聚烯烃及苯乙烯期货期权日度策略 Polyolefin and EB Futures & Options DailyTrading Strategy 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 封晓芬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03098955 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017725 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年03月18日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 聚烯烃： 【行情复盘】 期货市场：今日，聚烯烃震荡偏弱，LLDPE05合约收7708元/吨， 跌0.52%，持仓变化+2374手，PP05合约收7267元/吨，跌0.11% ，持仓变化+2514手。 现货市场：聚乙烯价格延续弱势，部分石化厂下调出厂价，贸易商 让利出货，下游补库意愿不高，随采随用，市场成交疲软，国内LL DPE市场主流价格在7940-8500元/吨；PP市场，现货价偏弱调整 ，贸易商随行出货，然下游新单跟进有限，采买积极性欠佳，华北 拉丝主流价格在7170-7300元/吨，华东拉丝主流价格在7240-740 0元/吨， ...

期货研究院 聚烯烃及苯乙烯期货期权日度策略 Polyolefin and EB Futures & Options DailyTrading 成文时间：2025年03月17日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 聚烯烃： 【行情复盘】 期货市场：今日，聚烯烃震荡偏弱，LLDPE05合约收7732元/吨， 跌0.69%，持仓变化+25553手，PP05合约收7282元/吨，涨0.14 %，持仓变化-8887手。 Strategy 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 封晓芬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03098955 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017725 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 现货市场：聚乙烯价格延续弱势，贸易商让利出货，下游补库意愿 不高，市场成交疲软，国内LLDPE市场主流价格在7950-8500元/ 吨；PP市场，贸易商让利报盘，下游刚需补货，市场交投不佳，华 北地区LLDPE价格在7950-8330元/吨，华东地区LLDPE价格在801 0-8500元/吨，华南地区LLDPE价格在8050-8380元 ...