Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo
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生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260115
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 03:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft - commodity and fresh - produce sectors have different market logics and trading strategies. For example, Zheng sugar has limited downside space and is recommended for light - position short - term long positions; pulp has limited upside space and is advised to go short on rallies [3]. - In the fresh - produce sector, apples are expected to have a slow upward trend in the overall price center, and long positions can be held cautiously; jujubes are in a situation of supply and demand both being strong, and different trading strategies are proposed according to different positions [7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh - produce Futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. For Jujube 2605, short - term buying on dips is recommended, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [17]. - **Soft - commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2605, light - position short - term long positions are recommended, with a support range of 5200 - 5230 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5380. For Pulp 2605, short - position operations within the range are recommended, with a support range of 5300 - 5350 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5700. For Double - offset Paper 2605, range operations are recommended, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4300 - 4350. For Cotton 2605, long positions can be held cautiously, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples increased. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory in the main producing areas decreased year - on - year. The spot price in Shandong and Shaanxi remained stable, and the sales area was also stable [18]. - **Jujube Market**: As of January 11, the sample - point inventory decreased month - on - month. The acquisition in the producing areas was basically over, and the market was expected to enter a peak sales period with the approach of the festival [21]. - **Sugar Market**: India, Thailand, and Brazil have different production and export situations. The global sugar supply is relatively sufficient, and the international sugar price is expected to be weak [22]. - **Pulp Market**: The price of needle and broad - leaf pulp increased, and the supply pressure gradually eased, but the upward space was limited due to the weak downstream market [3]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The operating rate of double - offset paper enterprises increased, the inventory decreased, but the overall demand was still under pressure [4]. - **Cotton Market**: In December 2025, the export volume of Bangladeshi clothing and Chinese textiles and clothing had different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2605, Jujube 2605, Sugar 2605, Pulp 2605, and Cotton 2605 are provided [31]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton are presented [36]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific content summary provided in the given text, only relevant figure references. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread is expected to be oscillating strongly, and buying on dips is recommended. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is expected to be range - oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread is expected to be oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread is expected to be oscillating weakly, and selling on rallies is recommended [55]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific content summary provided in the given text, only relevant figure references. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [84]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific content summary provided in the given text, only relevant figure references.
生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260114
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 03:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the apple market, the new - season production, good - fruit rate, and peak values are lower year - on - year, providing support, but the lack of consumer growth drivers restricts upward movement. Apple 2605 is expected to trade in a high - level range [11][21]. - Regarding the红枣 market, the expectation of reduced production may gradually manifest in the far - month contracts. The spot inventory has started to decline after reaching its peak, and the market is expected to enter a phased peak in sales with the approaching of the Lunar New Year [12][21][25]. - In the sugar market, the international sugar supply is abundant, and China is in the sugar - cane crushing season, resulting in sufficient market supply. Sugar 2605 is expected to be in a sideways - to - bearish trend [4][21]. - For the pulp market, although there are positive factors in supply and an increase in warehouse - receipt costs, the improvement in the domestic downstream market is limited, and the upward space of pulp is restricted [5][21]. - In the double - offset paper market, the spot market is stable, and the basis has widened, providing some support. However, due to the high total production capacity and low capacity utilization rate, the price increase is limited [7][21]. - For the cotton market, the external market is at a low level, and there are strong long - term positive expectations in the domestic market. Although there may be short - term adjustments, the price is expected to maintain an upward trend [10][21]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2605: Hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 10000 - 10200 [21]. - Red date 2605: Buy on dips in the short - term, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [21]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2605: Sideways - to - bearish, with a support range of 5180 - 5200 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5400 [21]. - Pulp 2605: Bearish within a range, with a support range of 5300 - 5350 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5700 [21]. - Double - offset paper 2605: Trade within a range, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4300 - 4350 [21]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [21]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of January 8, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 673,370 tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons compared with before New Year's Day and a year - on - year decrease of 668,600 tons [22]. - In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples was stable, and the sales slightly increased. In the Shaanxi production area, the price was also stable, with good - quality apples being scarce. In the sales area, the arrival of goods was stable, but the sales speed slowed down slightly [22][23][24]. - **Red Date Market** - As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. With the approaching of the Lunar New Year, the market is expected to enter a phased peak in sales [25]. - **Sugar Market** - Ukraine's sugar exports in 2025 decreased to 463,700 tons from 746,000 tons in 2024. In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of January 8, 2026, 197 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 2 less than the same period of the previous season, with a sugar production of 5.6297 million tons. As of January 7, Thailand's cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 16.9782 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.35%, and the sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.03% [27]. - **Pulp Market** - As of December 31, the price of pulp remained stable. Coniferous and broad - leaved pulp prices increased by $20/ton. In November, the global pulp shipment decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the shipment to China decreased more than the global average. However, the overseas producer inventory remained at a two - year high, and the domestic and European port inventories were also high [5]. - **Double - offset Paper Market** - The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed month - on - month. The social demand was still weak, and the inventory pressure increased. The operating load rate was 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points [31]. - **Cotton Market** - In 2026, Xinjiang will adjust the cotton - planting area, adhering to the principles of "large - scale stability, small - scale adjustment, optimized layout, and improved quality". In November, Bangladesh imported about 121,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 9.6% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. As of January 10, the net export contract of Egyptian cotton was 3783 tons, a significant increase from the previous week [32]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2605 closed at 9779, up 149 or 1.55% [33]. - Red date 2605 closed at 9060, down 100 or 1.09% [33]. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5253, down 32 or 0.61% [33]. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5492, up 2 or 0.04% [33]. - Cotton 2605 closed at 14760, up 135 or 0.92% [33]. - **Spot Market Review** - The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, with no month - on - month change but a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan/jin. - The spot price of red dates was 9.40 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan/kg. - The spot price of sugar was 5360 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change but a year - on - year decrease of 670 yuan/ton. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was 5550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 880 yuan/ton. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - The spot price of cotton was 15783 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 74 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 1072 yuan/ton [42]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary content provided, only related figure references. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread was 1229, with a month - on - month increase of 80 and a year - on - year increase of 1645, expected to be sideways - to - bullish, and the recommended strategy was to buy on dips [61]. - Red date 9 - 1 spread was 310, with a month - on - month increase of 205 and a year - on - year decrease of 385, expected to be range - bound, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see [61]. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread was - 13, a month - on - month decrease of 7 and a year - on - year decrease of 134, expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see [61]. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 155, a month - on - month increase of 15 and a year - on - year increase of 10, expected to be sideways - to - bearish, and the recommended strategy was to sell on rallies [61]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific summary content provided, only related figure references. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse - receipt Situation - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - The number of red date warehouse receipts was 2981, a month - on - month increase of 161 and a year - on - year decrease of 520. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 9499, a month - on - month increase of 560 and a year - on - year decrease of 6048. - The number of pulp warehouse receipts was 149134, a month - on - month increase of 6771 and a year - on - year decrease of 187722. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 8410, a month - on - month increase of 642 and a year - on - year increase of 2214 [89]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary content provided, only related figure references.
养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20260114
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 02:58
农产品团队 | 作者: | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号: | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0017427 | | 联系方式: | 010-68578697 | | 作者: | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号: | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0014216 | | 联系方式: | 010-68578922 | | 作者: | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号: | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0020712 | | 联系方式: | 18001936153 | | 作者: | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号: | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0016876 | | 联系方式: | -- | 投资咨询业务资格:京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间:2026年01月12日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油:周二,豆油主力05合约午后收于7986(日变动-8或-0.10% )。1月USDA供需报告影响利空,CBOT大豆下跌,日内棕榈油价 格上涨抑制豆油价 ...
生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260113
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 05:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: Market concerns about a year - on - year decline in Guangxi sugar output have led to a slight recovery in domestic sugar spot prices and improved market sentiment. However, the international sugar market remains in oversupply, limiting the upward drive of ICE sugar. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main SR2605 sugar contract [4][5]. - **Pulp**: The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the new warehouse receipt cost is rising, which may drive up the bottom of the market. However, overseas inventories are high, and the domestic downstream market's ability to accept high - priced pulp is limited. It is advisable to exit long positions and consider short positions [5][6]. - **Offset Paper**: The short - term demand is supported by publishing orders, but overall demand will be under pressure later. The high total production capacity and low capacity utilization rate limit the price increase. Short - term bearish operations are recommended [7][9]. - **Cotton**: Globally, the supply of cotton is expected to be abundant, and the consumption side lacks obvious drivers. However, there are expectations of supply reduction, and the futures price is in a bottom - building stage. In the domestic market, there are long - term supports, but short - term price adjustments may occur. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [10]. Fresh Produce and Fruit Sector - **Apple**: The 05 contract is supported by low cold - storage inventory, poor high - quality fruit rate, and high acquisition prices. However, after the harvest this season, the futures price has already reflected some positive expectations, and the consumption is worrying. The price is expected to remain in a high - level range. It is recommended to buy on dips [11][12]. - **Jujube**: The supply is gradually becoming more abundant, but consumption has entered the peak season. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the futures - spot price difference has eased. It is recommended to close short positions below 9,000 points in the 2605 contract, and investors can also consider other strategies such as buying protective put options and holding reverse spreads [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | Supported by a decline in new - season production, high - quality fruit rate, and peak inventory year - on - year, but limited consumption growth | 8,800 - 8,900 | 10,000 - 10,200 | | Jujube 2605 | Buy on dips | The expectation of production reduction may be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has peaked and started to decline | 8,700 - 9,000 | 9,500 - 9,800 | | Sugar 2605 | Light - position short - term long | International sugar supply is sufficient. The Chinese sugar - cane crushing season is underway, and the market is worried about a decline in production and sugar - making rate this season, improving bullish sentiment | 5,180 - 5,200 | 5,350 - 5,400 | | Pulp 2605 | Bearish within a range | There are still positive factors in supply and rising warehouse receipt costs, but the recent performance of the downstream market may put pressure on the market | 5,300 - 5,350 | 5,550 - 5,700 | | Offset Paper 2605 | Trade within a range | The spot market is stable, and the widening basis provides short - term support. However, publishing orders may weaken later, and the price increase is limited due to low capacity utilization | 4,000 - 4,100 | 4,300 - 4,350 | | Cotton 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | The overseas market is at a low level, while the domestic market has positive expectations. There are strong long - term positive expectations, but the short - term sentiment has cooled down, and the price may adjust | 13,500 - 13,600 | 15,400 - 15,500 | [21] Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of January 8, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 673,370 tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons compared with before the New Year's Day and a year - on - year decrease of 668,600 tons [22]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong and Shaanxi is stable. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, but the sales speed has slowed down recently [22][23][24]. Jujube Market As of January 4, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,649 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57% and a year - on - year increase of 38.34%. The acquisition in Xinjiang is basically over, and the supply in the mainland has decreased. The market is in a traditional sales peak season, and the actual sales performance needs attention [25]. Sugar Market In 2025, Ukraine's sugar export volume dropped to 463,700 tons from 746,000 tons in 2024. As of January 8, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 197 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 2 less than the same period last season; the sugarcane crushed was 63.292 million tons, an increase of 19.878 million tons; the sugar production was 5.6297 million tons, with an average sugar - making rate of 8.89%. As of January 7, 2026, in Thailand, the cumulative sugarcane crushed was 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 25.35% year - on - year; the sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a decrease of 27.03% [27]. Pulp Market As of December 31, the pulp price was stable. In January, some companies increased the price of BHK pulp shipped to China and other Asian markets by $20 per ton. Two large pulp - paper integrated enterprises' large - scale purchases tightened the supply and pushed up the price [29]. Offset Paper Market The inventory days of offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the weekly increase narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand is still weak, and the inventory pressure has increased. The operating load rate was 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points, and the weekly increase expanded by 0.23 percentage points [30]. Cotton Market In November, Australia's cotton export volume was about 131,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.2% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated annual output, 9% slower than the same period last year. As of January 3, Brazil's new cotton planting progress was about 31%, 6 percentage points higher than the previous week and slightly faster than the same period last year [31]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple 2605 | 9,630 | - 59 | - 0.61% | | Jujube 2605 | 9,160 | 10 | 0.11% | | Sugar 2605 | 5,285 | - 3 | - 0.06% | | Pulp 2605 | 5,490 | - 60 | - 1.08% | | Cotton 2605 | 14,625 | - 50 | - 0.34% | [32] Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5,360 | 10 | - 660 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5,550 | - 30 | - 880 | | Offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4,450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15,857 | - 73 | 1,214 | [40] Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis is provided in the report, but there are relevant basis trend graphs for apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton [51][54][56][58][60]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1,217 | 137 | 1,701 | Bullish within a range | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | 205 | 80 | - 390 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 6 | 5 | - 127 | Fluctuating | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 170 | 15 | - 5 | Bearish within a range | Sell on rallies | [59] Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation The report provides graphs of the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes for apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton futures [65][67][71][77][79]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 2,820 | 297 | - 419 | | Sugar | 8,939 | 2,934 | - 6,518 | | Pulp | 142,363 | 5,874 | - 194,678 | | Cotton | 7,768 | 380 | 2,160 | [87] Eighth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple Options**: The report provides graphs of trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility [90][91]. - **Sugar Options**: Graphs of trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [92][94][97]. - **Cotton Options**: Graphs of trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are presented [99][101][103].
养殖油脂产业链周度策略报告-20260112
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 03:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main contract of soybean oil rose this week. The auction of imported soybeans is expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil. Although the current supply of soybean oil in China has tightened, the overall supply remains abundant. The continued upward drive of soybean oil is expected to be insufficient, and long - position holders are advised to exit and wait and see. The support level of the main 05 contract is 7600 - 7650 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8030 - 8050 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil fluctuated widely this week. The news of the Canadian Prime Minister's upcoming visit to China has put pressure on the rapeseed oil market. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still in a destocking state. In the short term, rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. In the long - term, the expected increase in Australian rapeseed supply and the global rapeseed harvest pattern will still pose significant pressure on prices. One - sided short - selling at high prices can be considered. The 05 contract has a pressure range of 9300 - 9350 yuan/ton and a support level of 8650 - 8700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract of palm oil strengthened with fluctuations this week. The approach of India's traditional New Year stocking and the significant improvement in January's Malaysian palm oil export data have increased market expectations for export demand recovery. The Indonesian president's statement has raised concerns about future supply tightening. The strong biodiesel policy and supply tightening expectations have jointly supported palm oil prices. However, the inventory accumulation expectation for Malaysian palm oil in December is still high. The palm oil market has short - term bearish and long - term bullish prospects. Cautious investors are advised to wait for the release of the MPOB report before considering long - position entry at low prices. The main contract has a support level of 8300 - 8350 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 8700 - 8750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 rose and then fell this week. The auction of imported soybeans is expected to ensure sufficient supply. The 05 contracts of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 are expected to be sold short on rebounds [4][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell this week. The news of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China has put pressure on the domestic rapeseed market. The inventory is continuously decreasing, but the fundamental outlook is still bearish. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and short - selling at high prices can be considered [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The main contract of soybean No. 1 rose and then fell this week. The market logic has not changed significantly. The valuation is not low, and the continued upward drive is not strong. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week. The supply pressure is limited, and the export data of US corn is good. The wheat auction and China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn sales have had a certain impact on the domestic market, but the overall short - term pressure is not significant. It is recommended to buy on dips. For corn 2603, the support range is 2160 - 2170, and the pressure range is 2330 - 2350. For corn starch 03, the support range is 2430 - 2440, and the pressure range is 2630 - 2650. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended for option operations [5]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs rebounded with fluctuations over the weekend. The terminal consumption has improved month - on - month. The overall commodity market has stopped falling and rebounded in January, and the sentiment in the agricultural product sector has warmed up. Cautious investors can hold short - near - month and long - far - month reverse spreads, while aggressive investors can buy the 2607 contract when the price falls below the breeding cost and sell deep out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 15,000 to reduce the bottom - fishing cost [6]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs rose with fluctuations over the weekend. The egg price has rebounded after a seasonal decline since the fourth quarter. The terminal consumption is expected to increase month - on - month in January. The current egg price is relatively low, and the egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high. Aggressive investors can buy the 2605 contract on dips, and speculative short - selling should be cautious [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Different varieties in the feed, breeding, and oil industries have different market logics, support levels, pressure levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, soybean No. 1 05 is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see; soybean No. 2 05 is expected to be sold short on rebounds [10]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, main contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including soybeans, peanuts, oils, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [11][12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report presents the import cost data of oilseeds, including the arrival premium, CBOT soybean futures price, CNF arrival price, soybean import arrival duty - paid price, and soybean meal cost at zero profit for different shipping dates of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, as well as the relevant data for rapeseed and palm oil [12][13]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of oilseeds shows the inventory and operating rates of different varieties, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, and their corresponding operating rates [14]. 3.2.2 Feed - The report provides the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of starch enterprises, as well as the grain - selling progress of farmers [14]. 3.2.3 Breeding - **Pigs**: The report shows the key weekly data of the pig market, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and other indicators [15]. - **Eggs**: The report presents the key weekly data of the egg market, including supply - side indicators such as egg - laying rate, proportion of different egg sizes, and elimination of laying hens, as well as demand - side indicators and profit - related data [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Breeding End (Pigs and Eggs)**: The report includes charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of pigs and eggs, as well as the spot prices of pigs, piglets, and eggs [17][19][20]. - **Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: The report provides charts of Malaysia's palm oil monthly production, export volume, ending inventory, import profit, import volume, domestic inventory, daily trading volume, and price spreads [26][29]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, US soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, daily trading volume, and price spreads [31][33][36]. - **Peanuts**: The report presents charts of the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, peanut crushing profit, oil mill raw material procurement volume, peanut operating rate, peanut inventory, peanut oil inventory, peanut import volume, and price spreads [39][40][42]. - **Feed End** - **Corn**: The report includes charts of the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, port inventory, grain - selling progress, import volume, consumption, inventory, and processing profit of corn [44][45][46]. - **Corn Starch**: The report provides charts of the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, operating rate, inventory, and profit of corn starch [50][52][53]. - **Rapeseed**: The report presents charts of the spot price of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, basis, inventory, and pressing profit of rapeseed and rapeseed products [55][57][61]. - **Soybean Meal**: The report includes charts of the flowering rate and pod - setting rate of US soybeans, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal [65][68]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oil - The report provides charts of the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [70][71][72]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oil - The report presents charts of the warehouse receipt situation of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indexes [74][75][76].
生鲜软商品板块周度策略报告-20260112
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 03:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has oscillated upwards. The market is worried that the sugar production in Guangxi may decline year - on - year, and the domestic sugar spot price has slightly recovered. Globally, sugar is still in a state of oversupply. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [3]. - **Pulp**: The supply pressure of pulp is gradually alleviating, and the cost of new warehouse receipts has increased, which may drive up the bottom of the futures price. However, the global bleached softwood kraft pulp is not in short supply, and the ability of paper mills to accept high - priced pulp is limited. The upward space of pulp price is limited without further supply reduction or new production cut news [3]. - **Double - offset paper**: After the festival, the futures price of double - offset paper continued to rise, but the spot market was stable. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the upward space of the futures price is expected to be limited [5]. - **Cotton**: The futures price of cotton showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Globally, the supply of cotton is abundant, and the consumption side lacks obvious drivers. In the short term, the futures price may be slightly adjusted [7]. - **Apple**: The main 05 contract of apples showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The supply side has support, but the bullish factors have been somewhat realized, and the market is worried about consumption. The futures price is expected to be in a high - level range [8]. - **Jujube**: After the New Year's Day, the jujube futures price oscillated at a low level and tentatively rose. The spot market has entered the consumption peak season, and the inventory has started to decline. Pay attention to the spot and inventory situation in January [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously due to medium - term supply support but with a declining marginal driving force. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 10000 - 10200. For Jujube 2605, it is recommended to reduce short positions as the spot market enters the consumption peak season and the inventory has peaked [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2605, it is recommended to go long with a small position in the short term because of the uncertainty of domestic sugar production and sufficient international supply. For Pulp 2605, it is recommended to go long within a range. For Double - offset paper 2605, it is recommended to wait and see. For Cotton 2605, it is recommended to reduce long positions [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Plate Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9689, with a weekly increase of 569 and a weekly increase rate of 6.24%. - Jujube 2605 closed at 9150, with a weekly increase of 185 and a weekly increase rate of 2.06%. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5288, with a weekly increase of 37 and a weekly increase rate of 0.70%. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5550, with a weekly increase of 18 and a weekly increase rate of 0.33%. - Double - offset paper 2602 closed at 4196, with a weekly increase of 18 and a weekly increase rate of 0.43%. - Cotton 2605 closed at 14675, with a weekly increase of 90 and a weekly increase rate of 0.62% [19]. 3.2.2 Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples was 4.70 yuan per jin, with no环比 change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, with a环比 decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. - The spot price of sugar was 5350 yuan per ton, with no环比 change and a year - on - year decrease of 650 yuan. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5580 yuan, with no环比 change and a year - on - year decrease of 850 yuan. - The spot price of cotton was 15930 yuan per ton, with a环比 decrease of 62 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1278 yuan [23]. 3.3 Third Part: Plate Basis Situation No specific analysis content provided in the given text, only relevant figure references are given. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation No specific analysis content provided in the given text, only relevant figure references are given. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no环比 or year - on - year change. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 2523, with a环比 increase of 260 and a year - on - year decrease of 716. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 6005, with no环比 change and a year - on - year decrease of 9158. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 136489, with a环比 increase of 983 and a year - on - year decrease of 202170. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 7388, with a环比 increase of 199 and a year - on - year increase of 2848. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton yarn is 20, with no环比 change and a year - on - year decrease of 97 [43]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple 2605**: Sell out - of - the - money put options as the bullish factors have been somewhat realized, and the futures price is in a high - level range [45]. - **Jujube 2605**: Sell deep out - of - the - money call options as new jujubes are concentrated on the market, and the spot inventory is high [45]. - **Sugar 2605**: Buy out - of - the - money call options as there is a divergence in China's sugar production, and the futures price may rise in the short term [45]. - **Cotton 2605**: Sell out - of - the - money put options as there is a situation of strong expectation vs. weak reality, and the futures price is expected to continue to move up [45]. - **Pulp 2605**: Sell put options with an exercise price of 4900 and call options with an exercise price of 5300 as there is cost support but weak upward fundamental driving force [45]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apple - **Production Area Weather**: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [54]. - **Export Situation**: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [57]. - **Inventory Situation**: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [59]. 3.7.2 Jujube No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [62]. 3.7.3 Sugar No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [64]. 3.7.4 Pulp No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [70]. 3.7.5 Double - offset paper No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [83]. 3.7.6 Cotton No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [88].
有色金属周度策略-20260112
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 03:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - farm payroll data in the US in December 2025 was lower than expected, with data for October and November revised downwards. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026. The non - ferrous metals sector started strongly in 2026, and although there was short - term profit - taking, the overall upward trend remained unchanged. The prices of copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and other metals showed different trends driven by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical factors [3][10][11]. - China's economic data in December 2025 was positive. The official manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing PMI was also better than expected. The central bank emphasized increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [10]. - The US economic data was mixed. The ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 shrank, but the ISM services index reached a new high in more than a year. The employment data was weak, and the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts remained [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro - level factors**: In 2026, a relatively loose monetary environment, AI technological development, increased attention to key mineral supply chains, and resource nationalism in resource - rich countries supported the non - ferrous metals sector. However, there was short - term high - volatility due to profit - taking [10]. - **China's economic situation**: In December 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2, both better than expected. The central bank planned to increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [10]. - **US economic situation**: The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 shrank, the "small non - farm" ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, lower than expected. The non - farm payroll in December increased by only 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000. The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026 [10][11]. - **Investment recommendations for each metal**: - **Copper**: It was recommended to buy on dips. The short - term upper pressure range was 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range was 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton. Consider the reverse - spread opportunity between the 2602 and 2603 copper contracts and buy deep - out - of - the - money long - term call options [3][4]. - **Aluminum and its industrial chain**: For aluminum, a bullish approach was recommended, with the upper pressure range at 24,500 - 25,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 22,000 - 22,300 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection. For alumina, sell on rallies, with the upper pressure range at 2,900 - 3,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money call options for protection. For recycled aluminum alloy, a bullish approach was recommended, with the upper pressure range at 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [5]. - **Tin**: Temporarily wait and see or take a bullish approach. The upper pressure range was 360,000 - 380,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range was 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [6]. - **Zinc**: It was relatively strong and followed the overall sector. The upper pressure was around 24,300 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and the short - term lower support was around 23,600 - 23,800 yuan/ton. Consider the bull - spread option strategy [6]. - **Lead**: It was expected to oscillate and rise. The short - term lower support was around 17,000 - 17,200 yuan/ton, and the upper resistance was around 17,800 - 18,000 yuan/ton. Use a covered - call option strategy [7]. - **Nickel and stainless steel**: Nickel showed high - elasticity and short - term strength. The upper resistance was around 140,000 - 142,000 yuan, and the lower support was around 130,000 - 132,000 yuan. Use options to protect long positions. For stainless steel, a bullish approach on dips was recommended, with the price range at 13,000 - 14,200 yuan [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures price changes**: Copper closed at 101,410 yuan/ton, up 3.23%; aluminum at 24,330 yuan/ton, up 6.99%; tin at 352,540 yuan/ton, up 9.17%; nickel at 139,090 yuan/ton, up 4.70%; stainless steel at 13,860 yuan/ton, up 5.60%; zinc at 23,970 yuan/ton, up 2.99%; alumina at 2,843 yuan/ton, up 2.34%; lead at 17,355 yuan/ton, unchanged; and cast aluminum alloy at 22,985 yuan/ton, up 1.77% [17]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot price changes**: Copper spot prices decreased, with the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price at 100,720 yuan/ton, down 1.88%. Zinc spot prices also decreased, with the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price at 24,020 yuan/ton, down 0.66%. Aluminum spot prices were stable, with the Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum spot average price at 24,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina spot prices were stable, with the Antaike national alumina average price at 2,693 yuan/ton, unchanged [23]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: Included data on exchange copper inventory changes, SMM social copper inventory changes, copper concentrate rough - smelting fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper prices [26]. - **Zinc**: Included data on zinc inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fees, zinc spot market prices, galvanized sheet production seasonality, and the weekly inventory seasonality of SMM seven - region zinc ingots [28]. - **Aluminum and alumina**: Included data on the relationship between Shanghai aluminum inventory and aluminum prices, LME aluminum inventory and LME aluminum prices, the average price trend of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum ingots, the comparison of China's electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity and total capacity, alumina spot price trends, alumina port inventory changes, and alumina capacity and operating rate trends [32][38]. - **Tin**: Included data on the relationship between Shanghai tin prices and spot premiums, LME tin prices and spot premiums, the relationship between Shanghai tin inventory and LME tin inventory, tin concentrate processing fees, and the seasonal diagram of China's refined tin production [44][47][49]. - **Lead**: Included data on SHFE lead futures inventory, LME lead inventory, LME lead 0 - 3 premiums, lead concentrate processing fees, primary lead operating rate, and SMM lead - acid battery weekly operating rate [56][59][61]. - **Nickel and stainless steel**: Included data on SHFE nickel futures inventory, LME nickel inventory, refined nickel spot premiums, LME nickel 0 - 3 premiums, the average price of nickel - iron, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, stainless steel warehouse receipts, the inventory of 300 - series cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan, and the profit margin of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel [63][68][70]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - **Copper**: Recommended a reverse - spread between the 2602 and 2603 copper contracts due to supply constraints and the Fed's rate - cut and balance - sheet - expansion cycle [17]. - Also included data on the changes in the copper Shanghai - London ratio, the premium between Shanghai copper and London copper, and other relevant arbitrage - related data [75]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - **Copper**: Included data on copper option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open - interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open - interest [95][97]. - **Zinc**: Included data on zinc historical volatility, zinc option weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open - interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open - interest [99]. - **Aluminum**: Included data on aluminum option trading volume and open - interest trends, the ratio of call to put open - interest trends, and Shanghai aluminum volatility trends [100].
养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20260109
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2026-01-09 07:31
期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油:周四,豆油主力05合约午后收于7944(日变动-14或-0.18 %)。印尼计划在2026年继续正值400-500万公顷棕榈油种植园, 叠加印尼B50测试以及市场担忧印尼可能上调出口关税等影响下, 棕榈油期价近期走强,带动豆油坚挺运行。目前豆油自身基本面并 不理想,我国豆油目前供应虽有收紧,但整体供应依旧宽松,关注 大豆供应及节前备货情况。供应充足,豆油续涨驱动预计不足,多 单考虑离场观望。豆油主力05合约支撑位关注7600-7650元/吨, 压力位关注8030-8050元/吨; 投资咨询业务资格:京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间:2026年01月08日星期四 农产品团队 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 | 作者: | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号: | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0017427 | | 联系方式: | 010-68578697 | | 作者: | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号: | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0014216 | | 联系方式: | 010-6 ...
生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260109
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2026-01-09 03:20
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar spot prices have slightly recovered due to concerns about a year - on - year decline in Guangxi's sugar production. Globally, sugar is in a supply - surplus situation. The SR2605 contract is recommended to hold positions, with support at 5180 - 5200 and resistance at 5350 - 5400 [4]. - **Pulp**: Pulp supply pressure is gradually alleviating, but overseas producer inventory is at a two - year high. The upward space for pulp is limited, and it is supported by the increase in delivery costs after the reduction of Russian needle pulp warehouse receipts. The 2605 contract has resistance at 5700 - 5800 and support at 5400 - 5450 [4][5]. - **Offset Paper**: After the New Year's Day holiday, the offset paper spot market remained stable. The increase in paper mill inventory and the large fluctuation of raw material pulp prices limit the upward space of the offset paper futures. The 2605 contract has support at 3900 - 4000 and resistance at 4300 - 4500 [6][7]. - **Cotton**: Globally and in the US, cotton supply is expected to be abundant, but the marginal negative impact is decreasing. In China, there are expectations of tight supply at the end of the year and a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area. The 05 contract is expected to have a rising center of gravity, but there may be a short - term adjustment [9]. - **Apples**: The apple 05 contract is supported by low cold - storage inventory, poor high - quality fruit rate, and rising purchase prices. However, due to concerns about consumption, the upward momentum has slowed. It is expected to remain in a high - range [11]. - **Jujubes**: Jujube spot prices are stable, and futures prices have rebounded. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the new - jujube production reduction expectation has cooled down. The 2605 contract is recommended to close short positions below 9000, and investors can consider a reverse spread strategy [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with support at 8800 - 8900 and resistance at 10000 - 10200; for Jujube 2605, it is recommended to buy on dips, with support at 8700 - 9000 and resistance at 9500 - 9800 [21]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2605, it is recommended to go long with a light position, with support at 5180 - 5200 and resistance at 5350 - 5400; for Pulp 2605, it is recommended to be long in the range, with support at 5300 - 5400 and resistance at 5600 - 5800; for Offset Paper 2605, it is recommended to wait and see, with support at 3900 - 4000 and resistance at 4200 - 4300; for Cotton 2605, it is recommended to reduce long positions, with support at 13500 - 13600 and resistance at 15400 - 15500 [21]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In November 2025, fresh apple exports increased by 51.28% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year. As of January 8, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased compared to the pre - New Year's Day level. The spot price in the producing area was stable, and the sales volume increased, while the low - quality goods in the sales area were weak [22][23]. - **Jujube Market**: As of January 4, the inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 1.57% month - on - month and increased by 38.34% year - on - year. The acquisition in Xinjiang is basically over, and the arrival in the mainland has decreased. The market is in a traditional sales season [24]. - **Sugar Market**: As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production increased year - on - year. In the 2025/26 season, Thailand's sugar production decreased. In China, the number of sugar mills in Yunnan and Guangdong has increased, and Inner Mongolia's sugar production is expected to increase [24][25]. - **Pulp Market**: As of December 31, the pulp price was stable. In January, the price of BHK pulp in Asia increased by 20 US dollars per ton [29]. - **Offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of offset paper increased, and the social demand was weak. The start - up rate increased due to publication orders [30]. - **Cotton Market**: In December, Brazil's cotton exports reached a record high, and Vietnam's cotton imports increased. As of January 5, 2026, the cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Bonded Area decreased year - on - year. The Xinjiang Cotton Planting Industry Chain Conference will be held on January 9 [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of Apple 2605, Jujube 2605, Sugar 2605, Pulp 2605, and Cotton 2605 all decreased on the day, with declines of - 0.54%, - 0.82%, - 0.04%, - 1.64%, and - 1.96% respectively [32]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of apples remained unchanged month - on - month and increased year - on - year; jujubes decreased month - on - month and year - on - year; sugar remained unchanged month - on - month and decreased year - on - year; pulp remained unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year; offset paper remained unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year; cotton increased month - on - month and year - on - year [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific text information is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [54]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread: The current value is 1080, with a month - on - month decrease of 29 and a year - on - year increase of 1568. It is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread: The current value is 55, with a month - on - month increase of 90 and a year - on - year decrease of 535. It is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread: The current value is - 11, with a month - on - month increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 137. It is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread: The current value is - 190, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 40. It is expected to be volatile and weak, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [60]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific text information is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [67]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - Jujube: 2263 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 888. - Sugar: 6005 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 8358. - Pulp: 135,506 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 202,275. - Cotton: 7189 warehouse receipts, with a month - on - month increase of 140 and a year - on - year increase of 2847 [93]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific text information is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [97].
方正中期玻璃纯碱产业链月度策略-20260108
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 05:27
能源化工团队 | 作者: | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号: | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0015738 | | 联系方式: | 010-68578971 | 投资咨询业务资格:京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间:2026年01月08日星期四 期货研究院 方正中期玻璃纯碱产业链日度策略 FG&SA Futures Daily Report 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 【玻璃】 现货方面,周三国内浮法玻璃价格稳中有涨,交投氛围显著改善。 华北市场价格走高,生产企业出厂价普涨1-2元/重量箱;华中区域 价格基本走稳;华南部分货源上调1-2元/重量箱得到落实,月初部 分下游提货较为积极,市场交投氛围相对较好,个别货源仍有涨价 计划;西南四川本周报价走高,后期有望进一步上调。 随着玻璃供应密集减量,高库存或难进一步构成价格上行的压力。 对产业来说,库存逐步从负担变成财富,这一观念转变或能与强有 力的环保政策及房地产预期形成共振,玻璃后市仍值得期待。 玻璃盘面走势企稳,05合约买入头寸继续持有。05合约下方支撑9 50-970,上方压力1250-13 ...