Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price is under pressure due to India's increased sugar production and global oversupply, but there may be support during the Brazilian off - season and the Ramadan stocking period. It is recommended to wait and see and consider double - selling out - of - the - money options [4]. - The pulp market has limited upside space before further overseas supply cuts or new production cut news, and the 2605 contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [4]. - The double - offset paper price is under pressure due to weakened cost support, but the widening basis may support the futures price. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see [5][6]. - The cotton futures price may adjust narrowly in the short term and is expected to move up in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [7]. - The apple futures price may adjust at a high level in the short term and is expected to be supported in the medium term. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - The jujube futures price is oscillating at a low level and may rise. Aggressive investors can hold reverse spreads or long positions with protective puts [9][10]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fruit Futures**: - Apple 2605: Reduce long positions. The supply has medium - term support but the marginal driving force is decreasing. The support interval is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure interval is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - Jujube 2605: Reduce short positions. The spot market has entered the consumption peak season, and inventory has peaked and started to decline. The support interval is 8900 - 9000, and the pressure interval is 9300 - 9700 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: - Sugar 2605: Wait and see. There are differences in China's sugar production rate, and the international market supply is still sufficient. The support interval is 5200 - 5230, and the pressure interval is 5350 - 5380 [18]. - Pulp 2605: Try short - allocation. The impact of supply bullish factors is weakening, and the downstream paper products are in the off - season. The short - term pulp price is under pressure, but the low point of the futures price follows the rising cost of warehouse receipts. The support interval is 5300 - 5350, and the pressure interval is 5550 - 5600 [18]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Wait and see. The fundamental situation has not changed much. The short - term futures price fluctuates with the pulp price, and the widening basis supports the double - offset paper futures price. The support interval is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure interval is 4300 - 4400 [18]. - Cotton 2605: Reduce long positions. There is a game between strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures price is expected to move up. The support interval is 13500 - 13500, and the pressure interval is 15400 - 15500 [18]. Part 2: Plate Weekly Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: - Apple 2605: The closing price is 9541, down 148 (- 1.53%) for the week [19]. - Jujube 2605: The closing price is 8875, down 275 (- 3.01%) for the week [19]. - Sugar 2605: The closing price is 5258, down 30 (- 0.57%) for the week [19]. - Pulp 2605: The closing price is 5362, down 188 (- 3.39%) for the week [19]. - Double - offset Paper 2602: The closing price is 4048, down 148 (- 3.53%) for the week [19]. - Cotton 2605: The closing price is 14590, down 85 (- 0.58%) for the week [19]. - **Spot Market Review**: - Apple: The spot price is 4.70 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous period and an increase of 0.45 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Jujube: The spot price is 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan from the previous period and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Sugar: The spot price is 5360 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 550 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Pulp: The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp is 5550 yuan, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 1000 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Cotton: The spot price is 15931 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan from the previous period and an increase of 1182 yuan year - on - year [24]. Part 3: Plate Basis Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references [29][30]. Part 4: Inter - month Spread Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references [34][36]. Part 5: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: The number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no change from the previous period and no change year - on - year [42]. - Jujube: The number of warehouse receipts is 3271, an increase of 60 from the previous period and a decrease of 699 year - on - year [42]. - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts is 14126, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 7939 year - on - year [42]. - Pulp: The number of warehouse receipts is 149134, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 196156 year - on - year [42]. - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts is 9666, an increase of 337 from the previous period and an increase of 3166 year - on - year [42]. - Cotton Yarn: The number of warehouse receipts is 70, with no change from the previous period and an increase of 7 year - on - year [42]. Part 6: Option - related Data - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: - Apple 2605: Sell out - of - the - money put options as the bullish factors have been partially realized, and the futures price is in the high - level range [45]. - Jujube 2605: Sell deep out - of - the - money call options as new jujubes are concentrated on the market and the spot inventory is high [45]. - Sugar 2605: Consider double - selling call and put options as there are differences in China's sugar production and the international market supply is in surplus [45]. - Cotton 2605: Sell out - of - the - money put options as there is a game between strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures price is expected to move up [45]. - Pulp 2605: Sell put options with an exercise price of 4900 and call options with an exercise price of 5300 as there is cost support but weak upward fundamental driving force [45]. - **Option Data Figures**: There are figures for option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, historical volatility, and implied volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton, but no specific text summary [46][48][54]. Part 7: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation - **Apple**: - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas**: There are figures for minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific text summary [56]. - **Export Situation**: There is a figure for apple export volume, but no specific text summary [59]. - **Inventory Situation**: There are figures for China's weekly apple storage inventory, as well as in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific text summary [60]. - **Jujube**: There are figures for jujube trading volume in Henan and Hebei and the arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang Market, but no specific text summary [61]. - **Sugar**: There are figures for national sugar industrial inventory, monthly import volume, and the spot - futures spread, but no specific text summary [63][65][67]. - **Pulp**: There are figures for domestic pulp inventory, global producer inventory days, paper product weekly production, and pulp import volume, but no specific text summary [71][75][76]. - **Double - offset Paper**: There are figures for double - offset paper capacity utilization, production, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption, but no specific text summary [78]. - **Cotton**: There are figures for retail sales, inventory, and consumption data in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and textile industry data, but no specific text summary [81][82][88].

Report Information - **Authors**: Yang Lina, Hu Bin, Liang Haikuan [1] - **Date**: January 14, 2026 [2] - **Investment Advisory License**: Beijing Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2012] No. 75 [2] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals is strong but slightly differentiated. In a relatively loose monetary environment, driven by factors such as AI technology development, increased attention to the key mineral supply chain, and enhanced supply uncertainties of strategic resources due to rising nationalism in resource - rich countries and geopolitical disturbances, the sector remains strong, though there are fluctuations in market sentiment. The lower - than - expected US CPI data boosts the expectation of a rate cut in April, and the market continues to show relatively warm fluctuations [12]. - China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery. China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year in December, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2026 is expected to reach 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%, and automobile exports are expected to reach 7.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.3% [12]. - Overseas data shows that the number of new non - farm jobs in the US in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. Traders almost eliminated their bets on a rate cut in January. The preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in January reached a four - month high. The core CPI growth rate in December was lower than expected, and traders increased their bets on a mid - year rate cut [12]. Summary by Directory Part I: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is generally strong with a slightly differentiated trend. The sector remains strong under the influence of a loose monetary environment, AI development, and geopolitical factors. The lower - than - expected US CPI boosts the April rate - cut expectation. China's foreign trade recovers, and the new energy vehicle and automobile export markets are promising. Overseas, the US employment and inflation data affect market rate - cut expectations [12]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Metal** - **Copper**: Try to gradually buy on dips. The short - term upper pressure range is around 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is around 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options [4]. - **Zinc**: Follow the overall sector trend. The upper pressure is around 24,500 - 24,800, and the short - term lower support is around 23,600 - 23,800 [5]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, adopt a bullish approach. The upper pressure range is 25,000 - 27,000, and the lower support range is 22,000 - 22,300. For alumina, maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies. The upper pressure range is 2,900 - 3,000, and the lower support range is 2,000 - 2,200. For recycled aluminum alloy, adopt a bullish approach. The upper pressure range is 24,000 - 26,000, and the lower support range is 21,000 - 21,500 [6]. - **Tin**: Adopt a bullish approach before the capital enthusiasm fades. The upper pressure range is 430,000 - 450,000, and the lower support range is 330,000 - 350,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [7]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to remain in an overall oscillatory pattern. The short - term lower support is around 17,000 - 17,200, and the upper resistance is around 17,600 - 17,800 [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, trade in short - term bands with light positions. The upper resistance is around 146,000 - 150,000 yuan, and the lower support is around 137,000 - 138,000 yuan. For stainless steel, the lower support is around 13,300 - 13,400, and the upper resistance is around 13,800 - 14,200 [9]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 104,120 | 1.79% | | Zinc | 24,475 | 0.99% | | Aluminum | 24,595 | 0.90% | | Alumina | 2,800 | 0.72% | | Tin | 413,170 | 8.92% | | Lead | 17,385 | 0.43% | | Nickel | 140,940 | 1.80% | | Stainless Steel | 13,925 | 0.98% | | Cast Aluminum Alloy | 23,380 | 0.93% | [19] Part III: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis | Variety | Change Rate | Net Long - Short Strength | Net Long - Short Position Difference | Net Long Change | Net Short Change | Influencing Factors | Sector | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Silver (AG2604) | 8.03% | Strong long - position by main players | 28,858 | 8,527 | 2,518 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Tin (SN2602) | 8.00% | Strong short - position by main players | - 1,587 | 3,312 | 2,168 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Platinum (PT2606) | 3.67% | Strong short - position by main players | - 6,164 | - 51 | 505 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Gold (AU2602) | 1.07% | Strong long - position by main players | 44,062 | 5,965 | 269 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Copper (CU2603) | 0.85% | Strong short - position by main players | - 12,022 | 10,878 | 10,384 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Zinc (ZN2603) | 0.51% | Strong long - position by main players | 4,889 | 4,248 | 4,101 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Industrial Silicon (SI2605) | 0.34% | Strong short - position by main players | - 15,966 | 2,170 | - 8,250 | Short - position decrease by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Aluminum (AL2603) | - 0.06% | Strong short - position by main players | - 27,898 | 2,269 | - 4,016 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Nickel (NI2602) | - 0.11% | Strong short - position by main players | - 17,247 | 1,418 | - 4,872 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Lead (PB2603) | - 0.17% | Strong long - position by main players | 2,859 | 3,006 | 3,648 | Short - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Aluminum Alloy (AD2603) | - 0.21% | Strong short - position by main players | - 376 | 20 | 238 | Short - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Alumina (AO2605) | - 0.28% | Strong short - position by main players | - 123,283 | 8,091 | - 22,032 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Polysilicon (PS2605) | - 1.46% | Strong long - position by main players | 242 | 188 | - 892 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Lithium Carbonate (LC2605) | - 3.53% | Strong short - position by main players | - 93,289 | - 740 | 12,009 | Short - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | [22] Part IV: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The report provides the spot prices and change rates of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [23]. Part V: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain The report includes various charts related to the industry chain of each metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [25][26][29] Part VI: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage The report presents charts related to the arbitrage of each metal, including price ratios and basis spreads [51][53][55] Part VII: Non - ferrous Metals Options The report provides charts related to the options of each metal, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume and open interest [67][69][71]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The market anticipates a potential easing of China-Canada trade relations, which has led to a decline in vegetable oil products and dragged down the price of soybean oil. The price trend of palm oil has slowed down due to mixed factors. The inventory of soybean oil has decreased, but the supply at the raw material end is relatively sufficient, and its fundamentals are not strong. It is expected that palm oil will be stronger than soybean oil, which will be stronger than rapeseed oil. Attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities among oils and fats [1]. - The RMOB report in December was slightly bearish but had limited impact. The export demand for Malaysian palm oil in December exceeded expectations and showed an upward trend. Recent institutional data also indicated a recovery in exports. As the traditional New Year in India approaches in February, the peak-season export demand may gradually become the focus of market trading. In the medium and long term, factors such as the planting area and tree age structure in the main producing regions, as well as Indonesian policies, still pose potential concerns for the supply side this year, while there are still expectations for the biodiesel policy on the demand side. In the short term, the bearish factors may have been exhausted. With the approaching of the consumption peak season, a strategy of buying on dips is currently considered [2]. - The market is still digesting the bearish impact of the USDA supply and demand report in January, and the price of US soybeans has continued to weaken. The trading volume of the basis of domestic distant-month soybean meal has increased significantly, mainly because the oil mills have good crushing profits and have lowered their quotes to lock in profits in advance, which is expected to have a bearish impact on the distant-month soybean meal. The South American soybean harvest is imminent, and the bearish factors for soybean products are expected to continue. Recently, most of the imported soybeans in the auctions have been fully sold, alleviating the previous market concerns about the supply from February to April. With sufficient supply, soybean meal is expected to be more likely to decline than to rise. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities for soybean meal and soybean No. 2. Selling out-of-the-money call options can also be considered, and a 3 - 5 calendar spread operation can be considered [3]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply and Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 05 | Farmers and middlemen are holding out for higher prices, but downstream buyers are cautious. The valuation is not low, and there is limited upward momentum. | 4060 - 4080 | 4450 - 4460 | Sideways adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 2 05 | The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the growth of South American soybeans is in good condition, and soybean auctions have resumed. | 3400 - 3450 | 3540 - 3550 | Sideways adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 05 | The international oil market is weak, and the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient. | 7850 - 7900 | 8080 - 8100 | Sideways adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil 05 | Australian rapeseeds have not entered the crushing stage yet, and the domestic inventory continues to decline. However, the expected increase in supply and the global bumper harvest still put pressure on prices. | 8650 - 8700 | 9300 - 9350 | Sideways adjustment | Bearish approach | | Oils | Palm Oil 05 | Short-term bearish factors may have been exhausted, and the consumption peak season is approaching. | 8300 - 8350 | 8950 - 9000 | Sideways with an upward bias | Buy on dips | | Protein | Soybean Meal 05 | The supply is sufficient, the demand is still resilient, and the auction of imported soybeans has started. The trading volume of distant-month soybean meal by oil mills has increased significantly. | 2680 - 2700 | 2800 - 2820 | Sideways decline | Bearish operation | | Protein | Rapeseed Meal 05 | The inventory is at a low level and continues to decline, but the fundamentals are still expected to be bearish. | 2270 - 2280 | 2440 - 2450 | Sideways adjustment | Bearish approach | | Energy and By-products | Corn 03 | There is still support from the decline in the supply of high-quality corn. However, the wheat auction and the sales of central reserve corn have limited pressure on the market. The futures price may have support in the short term. | 2160 - 2170 | 2330 - 2350 | Supported | Bullish approach | | Energy and By-products | Starch 03 | It follows the cost of corn and has support. | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Supported | Bullish approach | | Livestock | Live Hogs 03 | Feed prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthening. | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Bottom-finding in a sideways range | Lightly go long on a trial basis | | Livestock | Eggs 05 | The number of newly opened laying hens has decreased, and there is an expectation of a consumption peak season. | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Bottom-finding in a sideways range | Buy on dips | [10] 2. Commodity Arbitrage | Sector | Spread Type | Current Value | Previous Value | Change | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 3 - 5 | -37 | -34 | -3 | Wait and see | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 2 3 - 5 | 325 | 304 | 21 | Calendar spread (buy near and sell far) | | Oils | Soybean Oil 5 - 9 | 138 | 144 | -6 | Wait and see | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9 | 19 | 31 | -12 | Wait and see | | Oils | Palm Oil 1 - 5 | -68 | -98 | 30 | Wait and see | | Protein | Soybean Meal 3 - 5 | 358 | 356 | 2 | Calendar spread (buy near and sell far) | | Protein | Rapeseed Meal 3 - 5 | 93 | 91 | 2 | Wait and see | | Energy and By-products | Corn 3 - 5 | -3 | 7 | -10 | Short on rallies | | Energy and By-products | Starch 3 - 5 | -37 | -30 | -7 | Wait and see | | Livestock | Live Hogs 3 - 5 | -250 | -375 | 125 | Wait and see | | Livestock | Eggs 3 - 5 | -553 | -571 | 18 | Wait and see | | Oils | 05 Soybean Oil - Palm Oil | -748 | -792 | 44 | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | 05 Rapeseed Oil - Soybean Oil | 949 | 1031 | -82 | Bearish operation | | Oils | 05 Rapeseed Oil - Palm Oil | 207 | 221 | -14 | Bearish operation | | Protein | 05 Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal | 462 | 447 | 15 | Temporarily wait and see | | Oil - Meal Ratio | 05 Soybean Oil - Meal Ratio | 2.91 | 2.89 | 0.02 | Temporarily wait and see | | Oil - Meal Ratio | 05 Rapeseed Oil - Meal Ratio | 3.91 | 3.90 | 0.01 | Temporarily wait and see | | Energy and By-products | 05 Corn - Starch | -305 | -314 | 9 | Temporarily wait and see | [11][12] 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Basis of the Main Contract | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 4080 | 4080 | -243 | 94 | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 2 | 3980 | 3980 | 477 | 19 | | Oilseeds | Peanuts | 7400 | 7400 | -342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean Oil | 8560 | 8560 | 570 | 6 | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil | 9750 | -100 | 801 | -35 | | Oils | Palm Oil | 8850 | -50 | 102 | -20 | | Protein | Soybean Meal | 3120 | -20 | 429 | 429 | | Protein | Rapeseed Meal | 2370 | -20 | 81 | 5 | | Energy and By-products | Corn | 2310 | 10 | 47 | 11 | | Energy and By-products | Starch | 2610 | 0 | 85 | 13 | | Livestock | Live Hogs | 12.74 (yuan/kg) | 0.01 (yuan/kg) | 990 | -215 | | Livestock | Eggs | 3.16 (yuan/jin) | 0.05 (yuan/jin) | 593 | 33 | [13] Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds (1) Daily Data - The table shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including the CNF price, import duty-paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [15][16]. (2) Weekly Data | Variety | Inventory (Change) | Operating Rate | | --- | --- | --- | | Soybeans | Port soybeans: 837.25 (-4.86) | 53.00% | | Soybean Meal | Oil mill soybean meal: 104.40 (-12.62) | 3.00% | | Soybean Oil | Port soybean oil: 98.00 (-4.10) | - | | Rapeseeds | Coastal oil mill rapeseeds: 6.00 (6.00); Coastal rapeseed meal: 0.00 (0.00); East China commercial rapeseed oil: 26.70 (0.00) | 28.03% (0.00%) | | Palm Oil | Inventory: 74 (0) | - | | Peanuts | Peanut inventory: 129285 (-490); Peanut oil inventory: 48080 (1162) | 43.51% (5.78%) | [17][18] 2. Feed (1) Daily Data The table shows the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including the CNF price and the import duty-paid cost [18]. (2) Weekly Data | Indicator Name | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Deep - processing enterprise corn consumption (10,000 tons) | 123.47 | -1.29 | -3.80 | | Deep - processing enterprise corn inventory (10,000 tons) | 354.00 | 4.60 | -240.70 | | Starch enterprise operating rate (%) | 59.37 | -0.49 | -7.65 | | Starch enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | 112.50 | 0.20 | 112.50 | | Grain sales progress of farmers at the grass - roots level (%) | 50.00 | 47.00 | 2.00 | [19] 3. Livestock - The table shows the daily spot prices of live hogs and eggs in different regions, as well as the weekly key data of live hogs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, and other indicators [19][20][21][22] Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - The report includes a series of fundamental tracking charts for the livestock (live hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, covering aspects such as prices, inventories, operating rates, and spreads [23][24][25] Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - The report shows the historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [95][96][97] Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - The report shows the warehouse receipt situation of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live hogs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the live hog index and the egg index [101][102][103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft - commodity and fresh - produce sectors have different market logics and trading strategies. For example, Zheng sugar has limited downside space and is recommended for light - position short - term long positions; pulp has limited upside space and is advised to go short on rallies [3]. - In the fresh - produce sector, apples are expected to have a slow upward trend in the overall price center, and long positions can be held cautiously; jujubes are in a situation of supply and demand both being strong, and different trading strategies are proposed according to different positions [7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh - produce Futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. For Jujube 2605, short - term buying on dips is recommended, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [17]. - **Soft - commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2605, light - position short - term long positions are recommended, with a support range of 5200 - 5230 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5380. For Pulp 2605, short - position operations within the range are recommended, with a support range of 5300 - 5350 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5700. For Double - offset Paper 2605, range operations are recommended, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4300 - 4350. For Cotton 2605, long positions can be held cautiously, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples increased. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory in the main producing areas decreased year - on - year. The spot price in Shandong and Shaanxi remained stable, and the sales area was also stable [18]. - **Jujube Market**: As of January 11, the sample - point inventory decreased month - on - month. The acquisition in the producing areas was basically over, and the market was expected to enter a peak sales period with the approach of the festival [21]. - **Sugar Market**: India, Thailand, and Brazil have different production and export situations. The global sugar supply is relatively sufficient, and the international sugar price is expected to be weak [22]. - **Pulp Market**: The price of needle and broad - leaf pulp increased, and the supply pressure gradually eased, but the upward space was limited due to the weak downstream market [3]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The operating rate of double - offset paper enterprises increased, the inventory decreased, but the overall demand was still under pressure [4]. - **Cotton Market**: In December 2025, the export volume of Bangladeshi clothing and Chinese textiles and clothing had different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2605, Jujube 2605, Sugar 2605, Pulp 2605, and Cotton 2605 are provided [31]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton are presented [36]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific content summary provided in the given text, only relevant figure references. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread is expected to be oscillating strongly, and buying on dips is recommended. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is expected to be range - oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread is expected to be oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread is expected to be oscillating weakly, and selling on rallies is recommended [55]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific content summary provided in the given text, only relevant figure references. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [84]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific content summary provided in the given text, only relevant figure references.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the apple market, the new - season production, good - fruit rate, and peak values are lower year - on - year, providing support, but the lack of consumer growth drivers restricts upward movement. Apple 2605 is expected to trade in a high - level range [11][21]. - Regarding the红枣 market, the expectation of reduced production may gradually manifest in the far - month contracts. The spot inventory has started to decline after reaching its peak, and the market is expected to enter a phased peak in sales with the approaching of the Lunar New Year [12][21][25]. - In the sugar market, the international sugar supply is abundant, and China is in the sugar - cane crushing season, resulting in sufficient market supply. Sugar 2605 is expected to be in a sideways - to - bearish trend [4][21]. - For the pulp market, although there are positive factors in supply and an increase in warehouse - receipt costs, the improvement in the domestic downstream market is limited, and the upward space of pulp is restricted [5][21]. - In the double - offset paper market, the spot market is stable, and the basis has widened, providing some support. However, due to the high total production capacity and low capacity utilization rate, the price increase is limited [7][21]. - For the cotton market, the external market is at a low level, and there are strong long - term positive expectations in the domestic market. Although there may be short - term adjustments, the price is expected to maintain an upward trend [10][21]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2605: Hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 10000 - 10200 [21]. - Red date 2605: Buy on dips in the short - term, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [21]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2605: Sideways - to - bearish, with a support range of 5180 - 5200 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5400 [21]. - Pulp 2605: Bearish within a range, with a support range of 5300 - 5350 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5700 [21]. - Double - offset paper 2605: Trade within a range, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4300 - 4350 [21]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [21]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of January 8, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 673,370 tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons compared with before New Year's Day and a year - on - year decrease of 668,600 tons [22]. - In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples was stable, and the sales slightly increased. In the Shaanxi production area, the price was also stable, with good - quality apples being scarce. In the sales area, the arrival of goods was stable, but the sales speed slowed down slightly [22][23][24]. - **Red Date Market** - As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. With the approaching of the Lunar New Year, the market is expected to enter a phased peak in sales [25]. - **Sugar Market** - Ukraine's sugar exports in 2025 decreased to 463,700 tons from 746,000 tons in 2024. In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of January 8, 2026, 197 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 2 less than the same period of the previous season, with a sugar production of 5.6297 million tons. As of January 7, Thailand's cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 16.9782 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.35%, and the sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.03% [27]. - **Pulp Market** - As of December 31, the price of pulp remained stable. Coniferous and broad - leaved pulp prices increased by $20/ton. In November, the global pulp shipment decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the shipment to China decreased more than the global average. However, the overseas producer inventory remained at a two - year high, and the domestic and European port inventories were also high [5]. - **Double - offset Paper Market** - The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed month - on - month. The social demand was still weak, and the inventory pressure increased. The operating load rate was 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points [31]. - **Cotton Market** - In 2026, Xinjiang will adjust the cotton - planting area, adhering to the principles of "large - scale stability, small - scale adjustment, optimized layout, and improved quality". In November, Bangladesh imported about 121,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 9.6% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. As of January 10, the net export contract of Egyptian cotton was 3783 tons, a significant increase from the previous week [32]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2605 closed at 9779, up 149 or 1.55% [33]. - Red date 2605 closed at 9060, down 100 or 1.09% [33]. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5253, down 32 or 0.61% [33]. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5492, up 2 or 0.04% [33]. - Cotton 2605 closed at 14760, up 135 or 0.92% [33]. - **Spot Market Review** - The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, with no month - on - month change but a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan/jin. - The spot price of red dates was 9.40 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan/kg. - The spot price of sugar was 5360 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change but a year - on - year decrease of 670 yuan/ton. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was 5550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 880 yuan/ton. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - The spot price of cotton was 15783 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 74 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 1072 yuan/ton [42]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary content provided, only related figure references. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread was 1229, with a month - on - month increase of 80 and a year - on - year increase of 1645, expected to be sideways - to - bullish, and the recommended strategy was to buy on dips [61]. - Red date 9 - 1 spread was 310, with a month - on - month increase of 205 and a year - on - year decrease of 385, expected to be range - bound, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see [61]. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread was - 13, a month - on - month decrease of 7 and a year - on - year decrease of 134, expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see [61]. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 155, a month - on - month increase of 15 and a year - on - year increase of 10, expected to be sideways - to - bearish, and the recommended strategy was to sell on rallies [61]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific summary content provided, only related figure references. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse - receipt Situation - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - The number of red date warehouse receipts was 2981, a month - on - month increase of 161 and a year - on - year decrease of 520. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 9499, a month - on - month increase of 560 and a year - on - year decrease of 6048. - The number of pulp warehouse receipts was 149134, a month - on - month increase of 6771 and a year - on - year decrease of 187722. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 8410, a month - on - month increase of 642 and a year - on - year increase of 2214 [89]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary content provided, only related figure references.

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: Market concerns about a year - on - year decline in Guangxi sugar output have led to a slight recovery in domestic sugar spot prices and improved market sentiment. However, the international sugar market remains in oversupply, limiting the upward drive of ICE sugar. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main SR2605 sugar contract [4][5]. - **Pulp**: The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the new warehouse receipt cost is rising, which may drive up the bottom of the market. However, overseas inventories are high, and the domestic downstream market's ability to accept high - priced pulp is limited. It is advisable to exit long positions and consider short positions [5][6]. - **Offset Paper**: The short - term demand is supported by publishing orders, but overall demand will be under pressure later. The high total production capacity and low capacity utilization rate limit the price increase. Short - term bearish operations are recommended [7][9]. - **Cotton**: Globally, the supply of cotton is expected to be abundant, and the consumption side lacks obvious drivers. However, there are expectations of supply reduction, and the futures price is in a bottom - building stage. In the domestic market, there are long - term supports, but short - term price adjustments may occur. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [10]. Fresh Produce and Fruit Sector - **Apple**: The 05 contract is supported by low cold - storage inventory, poor high - quality fruit rate, and high acquisition prices. However, after the harvest this season, the futures price has already reflected some positive expectations, and the consumption is worrying. The price is expected to remain in a high - level range. It is recommended to buy on dips [11][12]. - **Jujube**: The supply is gradually becoming more abundant, but consumption has entered the peak season. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the futures - spot price difference has eased. It is recommended to close short positions below 9,000 points in the 2605 contract, and investors can also consider other strategies such as buying protective put options and holding reverse spreads [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | Supported by a decline in new - season production, high - quality fruit rate, and peak inventory year - on - year, but limited consumption growth | 8,800 - 8,900 | 10,000 - 10,200 | | Jujube 2605 | Buy on dips | The expectation of production reduction may be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has peaked and started to decline | 8,700 - 9,000 | 9,500 - 9,800 | | Sugar 2605 | Light - position short - term long | International sugar supply is sufficient. The Chinese sugar - cane crushing season is underway, and the market is worried about a decline in production and sugar - making rate this season, improving bullish sentiment | 5,180 - 5,200 | 5,350 - 5,400 | | Pulp 2605 | Bearish within a range | There are still positive factors in supply and rising warehouse receipt costs, but the recent performance of the downstream market may put pressure on the market | 5,300 - 5,350 | 5,550 - 5,700 | | Offset Paper 2605 | Trade within a range | The spot market is stable, and the widening basis provides short - term support. However, publishing orders may weaken later, and the price increase is limited due to low capacity utilization | 4,000 - 4,100 | 4,300 - 4,350 | | Cotton 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | The overseas market is at a low level, while the domestic market has positive expectations. There are strong long - term positive expectations, but the short - term sentiment has cooled down, and the price may adjust | 13,500 - 13,600 | 15,400 - 15,500 | [21] Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of January 8, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 673,370 tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons compared with before the New Year's Day and a year - on - year decrease of 668,600 tons [22]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong and Shaanxi is stable. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, but the sales speed has slowed down recently [22][23][24]. Jujube Market As of January 4, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,649 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57% and a year - on - year increase of 38.34%. The acquisition in Xinjiang is basically over, and the supply in the mainland has decreased. The market is in a traditional sales peak season, and the actual sales performance needs attention [25]. Sugar Market In 2025, Ukraine's sugar export volume dropped to 463,700 tons from 746,000 tons in 2024. As of January 8, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 197 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 2 less than the same period last season; the sugarcane crushed was 63.292 million tons, an increase of 19.878 million tons; the sugar production was 5.6297 million tons, with an average sugar - making rate of 8.89%. As of January 7, 2026, in Thailand, the cumulative sugarcane crushed was 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 25.35% year - on - year; the sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a decrease of 27.03% [27]. Pulp Market As of December 31, the pulp price was stable. In January, some companies increased the price of BHK pulp shipped to China and other Asian markets by $20 per ton. Two large pulp - paper integrated enterprises' large - scale purchases tightened the supply and pushed up the price [29]. Offset Paper Market The inventory days of offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the weekly increase narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand is still weak, and the inventory pressure has increased. The operating load rate was 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points, and the weekly increase expanded by 0.23 percentage points [30]. Cotton Market In November, Australia's cotton export volume was about 131,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.2% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated annual output, 9% slower than the same period last year. As of January 3, Brazil's new cotton planting progress was about 31%, 6 percentage points higher than the previous week and slightly faster than the same period last year [31]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple 2605 | 9,630 | - 59 | - 0.61% | | Jujube 2605 | 9,160 | 10 | 0.11% | | Sugar 2605 | 5,285 | - 3 | - 0.06% | | Pulp 2605 | 5,490 | - 60 | - 1.08% | | Cotton 2605 | 14,625 | - 50 | - 0.34% | [32] Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5,360 | 10 | - 660 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5,550 | - 30 | - 880 | | Offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4,450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15,857 | - 73 | 1,214 | [40] Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis is provided in the report, but there are relevant basis trend graphs for apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton [51][54][56][58][60]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1,217 | 137 | 1,701 | Bullish within a range | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | 205 | 80 | - 390 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 6 | 5 | - 127 | Fluctuating | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 170 | 15 | - 5 | Bearish within a range | Sell on rallies | [59] Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation The report provides graphs of the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes for apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton futures [65][67][71][77][79]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 2,820 | 297 | - 419 | | Sugar | 8,939 | 2,934 | - 6,518 | | Pulp | 142,363 | 5,874 | - 194,678 | | Cotton | 7,768 | 380 | 2,160 | [87] Eighth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple Options**: The report provides graphs of trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility [90][91]. - **Sugar Options**: Graphs of trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [92][94][97]. - **Cotton Options**: Graphs of trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are presented [99][101][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main contract of soybean oil rose this week. The auction of imported soybeans is expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil. Although the current supply of soybean oil in China has tightened, the overall supply remains abundant. The continued upward drive of soybean oil is expected to be insufficient, and long - position holders are advised to exit and wait and see. The support level of the main 05 contract is 7600 - 7650 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8030 - 8050 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil fluctuated widely this week. The news of the Canadian Prime Minister's upcoming visit to China has put pressure on the rapeseed oil market. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still in a destocking state. In the short term, rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. In the long - term, the expected increase in Australian rapeseed supply and the global rapeseed harvest pattern will still pose significant pressure on prices. One - sided short - selling at high prices can be considered. The 05 contract has a pressure range of 9300 - 9350 yuan/ton and a support level of 8650 - 8700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract of palm oil strengthened with fluctuations this week. The approach of India's traditional New Year stocking and the significant improvement in January's Malaysian palm oil export data have increased market expectations for export demand recovery. The Indonesian president's statement has raised concerns about future supply tightening. The strong biodiesel policy and supply tightening expectations have jointly supported palm oil prices. However, the inventory accumulation expectation for Malaysian palm oil in December is still high. The palm oil market has short - term bearish and long - term bullish prospects. Cautious investors are advised to wait for the release of the MPOB report before considering long - position entry at low prices. The main contract has a support level of 8300 - 8350 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 8700 - 8750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 rose and then fell this week. The auction of imported soybeans is expected to ensure sufficient supply. The 05 contracts of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 are expected to be sold short on rebounds [4][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell this week. The news of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China has put pressure on the domestic rapeseed market. The inventory is continuously decreasing, but the fundamental outlook is still bearish. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and short - selling at high prices can be considered [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The main contract of soybean No. 1 rose and then fell this week. The market logic has not changed significantly. The valuation is not low, and the continued upward drive is not strong. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week. The supply pressure is limited, and the export data of US corn is good. The wheat auction and China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn sales have had a certain impact on the domestic market, but the overall short - term pressure is not significant. It is recommended to buy on dips. For corn 2603, the support range is 2160 - 2170, and the pressure range is 2330 - 2350. For corn starch 03, the support range is 2430 - 2440, and the pressure range is 2630 - 2650. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended for option operations [5]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs rebounded with fluctuations over the weekend. The terminal consumption has improved month - on - month. The overall commodity market has stopped falling and rebounded in January, and the sentiment in the agricultural product sector has warmed up. Cautious investors can hold short - near - month and long - far - month reverse spreads, while aggressive investors can buy the 2607 contract when the price falls below the breeding cost and sell deep out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 15,000 to reduce the bottom - fishing cost [6]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs rose with fluctuations over the weekend. The egg price has rebounded after a seasonal decline since the fourth quarter. The terminal consumption is expected to increase month - on - month in January. The current egg price is relatively low, and the egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high. Aggressive investors can buy the 2605 contract on dips, and speculative short - selling should be cautious [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Different varieties in the feed, breeding, and oil industries have different market logics, support levels, pressure levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, soybean No. 1 05 is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see; soybean No. 2 05 is expected to be sold short on rebounds [10]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, main contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including soybeans, peanuts, oils, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [11][12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report presents the import cost data of oilseeds, including the arrival premium, CBOT soybean futures price, CNF arrival price, soybean import arrival duty - paid price, and soybean meal cost at zero profit for different shipping dates of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, as well as the relevant data for rapeseed and palm oil [12][13]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of oilseeds shows the inventory and operating rates of different varieties, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, and their corresponding operating rates [14]. 3.2.2 Feed - The report provides the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of starch enterprises, as well as the grain - selling progress of farmers [14]. 3.2.3 Breeding - **Pigs**: The report shows the key weekly data of the pig market, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and other indicators [15]. - **Eggs**: The report presents the key weekly data of the egg market, including supply - side indicators such as egg - laying rate, proportion of different egg sizes, and elimination of laying hens, as well as demand - side indicators and profit - related data [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Breeding End (Pigs and Eggs)**: The report includes charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of pigs and eggs, as well as the spot prices of pigs, piglets, and eggs [17][19][20]. - **Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: The report provides charts of Malaysia's palm oil monthly production, export volume, ending inventory, import profit, import volume, domestic inventory, daily trading volume, and price spreads [26][29]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, US soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, daily trading volume, and price spreads [31][33][36]. - **Peanuts**: The report presents charts of the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, peanut crushing profit, oil mill raw material procurement volume, peanut operating rate, peanut inventory, peanut oil inventory, peanut import volume, and price spreads [39][40][42]. - **Feed End** - **Corn**: The report includes charts of the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, port inventory, grain - selling progress, import volume, consumption, inventory, and processing profit of corn [44][45][46]. - **Corn Starch**: The report provides charts of the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, operating rate, inventory, and profit of corn starch [50][52][53]. - **Rapeseed**: The report presents charts of the spot price of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, basis, inventory, and pressing profit of rapeseed and rapeseed products [55][57][61]. - **Soybean Meal**: The report includes charts of the flowering rate and pod - setting rate of US soybeans, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal [65][68]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oil - The report provides charts of the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [70][71][72]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oil - The report presents charts of the warehouse receipt situation of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indexes [74][75][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has oscillated upwards. The market is worried that the sugar production in Guangxi may decline year - on - year, and the domestic sugar spot price has slightly recovered. Globally, sugar is still in a state of oversupply. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [3]. - **Pulp**: The supply pressure of pulp is gradually alleviating, and the cost of new warehouse receipts has increased, which may drive up the bottom of the futures price. However, the global bleached softwood kraft pulp is not in short supply, and the ability of paper mills to accept high - priced pulp is limited. The upward space of pulp price is limited without further supply reduction or new production cut news [3]. - **Double - offset paper**: After the festival, the futures price of double - offset paper continued to rise, but the spot market was stable. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the upward space of the futures price is expected to be limited [5]. - **Cotton**: The futures price of cotton showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Globally, the supply of cotton is abundant, and the consumption side lacks obvious drivers. In the short term, the futures price may be slightly adjusted [7]. - **Apple**: The main 05 contract of apples showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The supply side has support, but the bullish factors have been somewhat realized, and the market is worried about consumption. The futures price is expected to be in a high - level range [8]. - **Jujube**: After the New Year's Day, the jujube futures price oscillated at a low level and tentatively rose. The spot market has entered the consumption peak season, and the inventory has started to decline. Pay attention to the spot and inventory situation in January [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously due to medium - term supply support but with a declining marginal driving force. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 10000 - 10200. For Jujube 2605, it is recommended to reduce short positions as the spot market enters the consumption peak season and the inventory has peaked [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2605, it is recommended to go long with a small position in the short term because of the uncertainty of domestic sugar production and sufficient international supply. For Pulp 2605, it is recommended to go long within a range. For Double - offset paper 2605, it is recommended to wait and see. For Cotton 2605, it is recommended to reduce long positions [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Plate Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9689, with a weekly increase of 569 and a weekly increase rate of 6.24%. - Jujube 2605 closed at 9150, with a weekly increase of 185 and a weekly increase rate of 2.06%. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5288, with a weekly increase of 37 and a weekly increase rate of 0.70%. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5550, with a weekly increase of 18 and a weekly increase rate of 0.33%. - Double - offset paper 2602 closed at 4196, with a weekly increase of 18 and a weekly increase rate of 0.43%. - Cotton 2605 closed at 14675, with a weekly increase of 90 and a weekly increase rate of 0.62% [19]. 3.2.2 Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples was 4.70 yuan per jin, with no环比 change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, with a环比 decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. - The spot price of sugar was 5350 yuan per ton, with no环比 change and a year - on - year decrease of 650 yuan. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5580 yuan, with no环比 change and a year - on - year decrease of 850 yuan. - The spot price of cotton was 15930 yuan per ton, with a环比 decrease of 62 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1278 yuan [23]. 3.3 Third Part: Plate Basis Situation No specific analysis content provided in the given text, only relevant figure references are given. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation No specific analysis content provided in the given text, only relevant figure references are given. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no环比 or year - on - year change. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 2523, with a环比 increase of 260 and a year - on - year decrease of 716. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 6005, with no环比 change and a year - on - year decrease of 9158. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 136489, with a环比 increase of 983 and a year - on - year decrease of 202170. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 7388, with a环比 increase of 199 and a year - on - year increase of 2848. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton yarn is 20, with no环比 change and a year - on - year decrease of 97 [43]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple 2605**: Sell out - of - the - money put options as the bullish factors have been somewhat realized, and the futures price is in a high - level range [45]. - **Jujube 2605**: Sell deep out - of - the - money call options as new jujubes are concentrated on the market, and the spot inventory is high [45]. - **Sugar 2605**: Buy out - of - the - money call options as there is a divergence in China's sugar production, and the futures price may rise in the short term [45]. - **Cotton 2605**: Sell out - of - the - money put options as there is a situation of strong expectation vs. weak reality, and the futures price is expected to continue to move up [45]. - **Pulp 2605**: Sell put options with an exercise price of 4900 and call options with an exercise price of 5300 as there is cost support but weak upward fundamental driving force [45]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apple - **Production Area Weather**: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [54]. - **Export Situation**: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [57]. - **Inventory Situation**: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [59]. 3.7.2 Jujube No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [62]. 3.7.3 Sugar No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [64]. 3.7.4 Pulp No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [70]. 3.7.5 Double - offset paper No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [83]. 3.7.6 Cotton No specific analysis content provided, only relevant figure references are given [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - farm payroll data in the US in December 2025 was lower than expected, with data for October and November revised downwards. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026. The non - ferrous metals sector started strongly in 2026, and although there was short - term profit - taking, the overall upward trend remained unchanged. The prices of copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and other metals showed different trends driven by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical factors [3][10][11]. - China's economic data in December 2025 was positive. The official manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing PMI was also better than expected. The central bank emphasized increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [10]. - The US economic data was mixed. The ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 shrank, but the ISM services index reached a new high in more than a year. The employment data was weak, and the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts remained [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro - level factors**: In 2026, a relatively loose monetary environment, AI technological development, increased attention to key mineral supply chains, and resource nationalism in resource - rich countries supported the non - ferrous metals sector. However, there was short - term high - volatility due to profit - taking [10]. - **China's economic situation**: In December 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2, both better than expected. The central bank planned to increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [10]. - **US economic situation**: The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 shrank, the "small non - farm" ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, lower than expected. The non - farm payroll in December increased by only 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000. The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026 [10][11]. - **Investment recommendations for each metal**: - **Copper**: It was recommended to buy on dips. The short - term upper pressure range was 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range was 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton. Consider the reverse - spread opportunity between the 2602 and 2603 copper contracts and buy deep - out - of - the - money long - term call options [3][4]. - **Aluminum and its industrial chain**: For aluminum, a bullish approach was recommended, with the upper pressure range at 24,500 - 25,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 22,000 - 22,300 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection. For alumina, sell on rallies, with the upper pressure range at 2,900 - 3,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money call options for protection. For recycled aluminum alloy, a bullish approach was recommended, with the upper pressure range at 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [5]. - **Tin**: Temporarily wait and see or take a bullish approach. The upper pressure range was 360,000 - 380,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range was 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [6]. - **Zinc**: It was relatively strong and followed the overall sector. The upper pressure was around 24,300 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and the short - term lower support was around 23,600 - 23,800 yuan/ton. Consider the bull - spread option strategy [6]. - **Lead**: It was expected to oscillate and rise. The short - term lower support was around 17,000 - 17,200 yuan/ton, and the upper resistance was around 17,800 - 18,000 yuan/ton. Use a covered - call option strategy [7]. - **Nickel and stainless steel**: Nickel showed high - elasticity and short - term strength. The upper resistance was around 140,000 - 142,000 yuan, and the lower support was around 130,000 - 132,000 yuan. Use options to protect long positions. For stainless steel, a bullish approach on dips was recommended, with the price range at 13,000 - 14,200 yuan [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures price changes**: Copper closed at 101,410 yuan/ton, up 3.23%; aluminum at 24,330 yuan/ton, up 6.99%; tin at 352,540 yuan/ton, up 9.17%; nickel at 139,090 yuan/ton, up 4.70%; stainless steel at 13,860 yuan/ton, up 5.60%; zinc at 23,970 yuan/ton, up 2.99%; alumina at 2,843 yuan/ton, up 2.34%; lead at 17,355 yuan/ton, unchanged; and cast aluminum alloy at 22,985 yuan/ton, up 1.77% [17]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot price changes**: Copper spot prices decreased, with the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price at 100,720 yuan/ton, down 1.88%. Zinc spot prices also decreased, with the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price at 24,020 yuan/ton, down 0.66%. Aluminum spot prices were stable, with the Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum spot average price at 24,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina spot prices were stable, with the Antaike national alumina average price at 2,693 yuan/ton, unchanged [23]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: Included data on exchange copper inventory changes, SMM social copper inventory changes, copper concentrate rough - smelting fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper prices [26]. - **Zinc**: Included data on zinc inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fees, zinc spot market prices, galvanized sheet production seasonality, and the weekly inventory seasonality of SMM seven - region zinc ingots [28]. - **Aluminum and alumina**: Included data on the relationship between Shanghai aluminum inventory and aluminum prices, LME aluminum inventory and LME aluminum prices, the average price trend of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum ingots, the comparison of China's electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity and total capacity, alumina spot price trends, alumina port inventory changes, and alumina capacity and operating rate trends [32][38]. - **Tin**: Included data on the relationship between Shanghai tin prices and spot premiums, LME tin prices and spot premiums, the relationship between Shanghai tin inventory and LME tin inventory, tin concentrate processing fees, and the seasonal diagram of China's refined tin production [44][47][49]. - **Lead**: Included data on SHFE lead futures inventory, LME lead inventory, LME lead 0 - 3 premiums, lead concentrate processing fees, primary lead operating rate, and SMM lead - acid battery weekly operating rate [56][59][61]. - **Nickel and stainless steel**: Included data on SHFE nickel futures inventory, LME nickel inventory, refined nickel spot premiums, LME nickel 0 - 3 premiums, the average price of nickel - iron, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, stainless steel warehouse receipts, the inventory of 300 - series cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan, and the profit margin of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel [63][68][70]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - **Copper**: Recommended a reverse - spread between the 2602 and 2603 copper contracts due to supply constraints and the Fed's rate - cut and balance - sheet - expansion cycle [17]. - Also included data on the changes in the copper Shanghai - London ratio, the premium between Shanghai copper and London copper, and other relevant arbitrage - related data [75]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - **Copper**: Included data on copper option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open - interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open - interest [95][97]. - **Zinc**: Included data on zinc historical volatility, zinc option weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open - interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open - interest [99]. - **Aluminum**: Included data on aluminum option trading volume and open - interest trends, the ratio of call to put open - interest trends, and Shanghai aluminum volatility trends [100].