尿素市场2026年年报 尿素：冬去春犹近 波平势渐升 ——2025年尿素市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 能源化工团队 夏聪聪 Z0012870 摘要： 2025 年，尿素期货呈现低位运行态势，重心先扬后抑，基本在 1600-1950 内波动， 价格波动区间明显收窄。供需持续宽松，尿素行情跟随季节性特点波动。 上游原料煤炭价格降至低位，企业生产利润表现尚可，尿素市场产能继续投放， 2025 年新投产产能较多，国内供应规模扩大。加之尿素产能利用率长期处于高位， 日产量不断提升，一度超过 20 万吨，市场货源充沛。但下游需求跟进略显一般，尤 其是工业需求受到宏观环境的影响普遍偏弱，且多数与房地产相关，回暖略显乏力。 农业需求存在季节性特点，在天气因素扰动下，整体释放情况不及预期。尿素出口 有所好转，2025 年下半年开始明显放量，对国内市场存在一定支撑。为了保障化肥 供应安全，尿素出口仍处于监管阶段。2026 年，尿素市场将延续高开工、高供应态 势，货源供应较为充裕。国内种植面积稳定增加，农业需求保持增长态势，但工业 需求增量或有限。国内供需压力较大，且国内外价差扩大，尿素出口或逐步改善。 2025 ...

2026 年甲醇产能仍有扩张，但投产速度放缓，新增项目多与下游一体化装置配套， 因此新产能落地对国内供应影响或不大。甲醇下游需求依旧由煤制烯烃主导，消费 占比稳居首位，但烯烃装置投产计划不多，传统需求行业中醋酸、BOD 等存在一定 增量。在国内甲醇具有价格优势的情况下，部分货源转出口。冬季阶段海外生产装 置存在限气扰动，甲醇进口或阶段性缩减。2026 年，甲醇市场有望转为缓慢去库， 供需关系依旧偏弱。经过持续调整后，甲醇期货盘面存在修复需求，重心有望逐步 回到前期宽幅震荡区间内，2026 年或前低后高，下方支撑关注 1850-1950 附近，上 方 2600-2700 附近存在阻力。 甲醇市场2026年年报 甲醇：千风过甲醇岸 冰消未见春 ——2025年甲醇市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 能源化工团队 夏聪聪 Z0012870 摘要： 甲醇期货 2025 年行情偏弱，打破宽幅区间震荡走势，重心不断下探。基本面缺乏 驱动，甲醇行情表现低迷。 我国甲醇现货市场产能过剩，随着部分新增产能落地，供需压力进一步增加。除 了几套长期停车的装置外，大部分企业生产平稳，甲醇行业开工保持在高位，带动 月度产量提升 ...

棉花市场2026年年报 棉花：千寻深处探春温 一绽云裳上玉墀 ——2025年棉花市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 侯芝芳 Z0014216 摘要： 2025年棉花期货整体是筑底行情。年度走势锚定因子主要是三个，一是中美贸易 关系反复，二是进口量同比下滑明显，三是新疆产量增幅较为明显。美国对等关税把 利空情绪打到极致，期价进入年内低位区间，而进口量同比下滑，使得年度尾端供应 吃紧，又把期价抬到了年内高位区间，之后又在新疆产量增幅超预期的带动下，回到 低位区间。 2026年棉花价格到底是接着筑底还是筑底回升，关键点主要还是看供应端是否有 驱动。目前种植端是有风险累积的。全球角度来看，棉花期价持续处于低位之后，种 植积极性是有所下降的，并且美棉/美玉米以及美棉/美豆比价确实也不支持其面积增 长，政策端来看，中国以及印度边际驱动也是下降的，因此棉花种植端是有缩量预期 的，不过这个风险累积是否能引发资金热情，还是要看是否有天气助力，一旦出现天 气扰动，就可能会触发一波上涨行情。国内角度来看，补贴的边际提振也在下降，同 时2026年将面临新一轮政策方案，方案定调也会引发价格波动。目前对于2026年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply is relatively abundant due to the previous import volume increase and the continuous new opening of domestic sugar mills. Both domestic and international sugar are in a state of supply surplus, so the driving force for further rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions and consider selling call options. The support level of SR2605 contract is 5130 - 5150, and the pressure level is 5280 - 5300 [4]. - **Pulp**: Recent changes in the supply of softwood pulp have increased the volatility of the pulp futures market. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled, the new warehouse receipts have not increased yet, and the cost has risen, which is bullish for the market. However, the current supply of softwood pulp is not tight, and the inventory of producers in October increased slightly, reaching a high level in recent years. Domestic paper mills are adjusting the raw material ratio to reduce the use of high - priced softwood pulp. The continuity of the recent upward trend needs to be observed, and short - term caution is recommended for further increases above 5600. It is recommended to try a light short position in the 2605 contract, with the upper pressure at 5550 - 5600 yuan and the support at 5280 - 5330 yuan [4][5]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The price of raw wood pulp has fallen from a high level, and the offset printing paper futures price fluctuates with the cost, while the spot price remains stable, and the basis has widened. The demand improvement in the fourth - quarter peak season has limited impact on the overall inventory replenishment willingness, and the capacity is relatively abundant. Although the year - end demand still has support, the improvement of paper mill profits and offset printing paper prices is limited. After the basis widens, the support for the futures price may increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 4000 - 4100 yuan and the pressure at 4300 - 4500 yuan [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The USDA December report revised up the US cotton production and ending stocks, and the consumption is still suppressed by high tariffs. The domestic commercial and industrial inventories of cotton have increased month - on - month, indicating sufficient short - term supply, but the year - on - year increase is not significant, indicating limited long - term pressure. The macro - economic outlook is positive, which weakens the downward momentum of cotton prices. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract on dips, with the support range of the 01 contract estimated at 13200 - 13300 and the pressure range at 13800 - 13850 [8]. - **Apples**: The market sentiment has returned to calm, and the futures price has entered a high - level oscillation. The new - season apple production, good - fruit rate, and peak inventory are all lower than last year, which still provides support, but the support is expected to weaken. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the 2605 contract, with the support range at 8800 - 8900 and the pressure range at 9700 - 9800 [9]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price rose and then fell on Wednesday. The warehouse receipts have increased to 850 lots. The short - term decline in the 2601 contract has narrowed, and the futures - to - spot price difference has gradually returned. The market's expectation of production reduction has cooled. It is recommended that aggressive investors buy the 2605 contract on dips around 9000 - 9200 points. The option volatility has rebounded significantly from the bottom, and it is recommended to take profit on the wide - straddle spread combination. The low - level reference range of the 01 contract is 9000 - 9500 points, and the high - level reference range is 9500 - 9700 points [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2605**: Recommend reducing long positions. The new - season production, good - fruit rate, and peak inventory are lower than last year, but the lack of consumption growth drivers has increased. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 9700 - 9800 [19]. - **Jujube 2605**: Recommend short - term buying on dips. The expectation of production reduction may be gradually reflected in the far - month contracts. The support range is 9000 - 9300, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [19]. - **Sugar 2601**: Recommend holding short positions. The increase in the number of sugar mills in India and the new domestic sugar supply are increasing. The support range is 5240 - 5280, and the pressure range is 5400 - 5450 [19]. - **Pulp 2605**: Recommend a small short position. The futures price has risen above the price of the main delivery products in the spot market, increasing the potential delivery pressure. The support range is 5270 - 5330, and the pressure range is 5550 - 5600 [19]. - **Offset Printing Paper 2605**: Recommend temporary waiting and seeing. The raw material price fluctuations affect the offset printing paper price from the cost side, but the spot price is stable, and the futures price may operate within a range. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4300 - 4400 [19]. - **Cotton 2605**: Recommend buying on dips. The macro - economic sentiment boosts the market, but the supply - demand situation has limited changes, and the futures price is expected to continue to operate in a low - level range. The support range is 13300 - 13400, and the pressure range is 14000 - 14200 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples decreased year - on - year due to the delayed listing of new - season apples. As of December 4, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The spot price in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces remained stable, and the sales in the sales area were average [20][21][22]. - **Jujube Market**: As of last week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The acquisition progress in Xinjiang has accelerated, and the order signing volume has increased significantly [23]. - **Sugar Market**: As of December 10, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 25/26 crushing season, 7 less than last year; 26 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 9 more than last year. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in November decreased by 2.59% year - on - year [25]. - **Pulp Market**: In October 2025, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased year - on - year, and the shipments to China also decreased. Some pulp mills have shut down or will shut down, which has improved the market sentiment, but the current supply of softwood pulp is not tight [27]. - **Offset Printing Paper Market**: The inventory days of offset printing paper increased by 0.41% week - on - week, and the increase rate narrowed. The start - up load rate increased by 1.53 percentage points, and the overall inventory pressure continued to increase [28]. - **Cotton Market**: In August 2025, the EU's clothing import volume increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The estimated cotton production in Xinjiang and the whole country in 2025 increased by 12.0% year - on - year. The cotton sowing area in Argentina has reached at least 60%, and the sowing progress is expected to accelerate. The cotton imports of Vietnam and Turkey in November and October respectively decreased year - on - year. The processing progress of Brazilian cotton in 25 reached 82% by early December, and the production in 2026 is expected to decrease by about 7% year - on - year [29][30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing price of Apple 2605 was 9510, up 45 or 0.48%; Jujube 2601 was 9180, down 55 or - 0.60%; Sugar 2601 was 5328, down 15 or - 0.28%; Pulp 2511 was 5432, down 20 or - 0.37%; Cotton 2601 was 13780, up 40 or 0.29% [30]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.45 year - on - year; jujubes were 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 month - on - month and down 5.30 year - on - year; sugar was 5370 yuan/ton, down 40 month - on - month and down 700 year - on - year; pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 700 year - on - year; offset printing paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 450 year - on - year; cotton was 15004 yuan/ton, up 5 month - on - month and down 100 year - on - year [37]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant charts (Apple 5 - month basis, Jujube main contract basis, Sugar main - continuous basis, Pulp main - continuous basis, Cotton 1 - month basis) are mentioned [53][54][56][57][60]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple**: The 1 - 5 spread is 108, up 28 month - on - month and up 334 year - on - year, expected to oscillate and decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [59]. - **Jujube**: The 9 - 1 spread is 415, up 380 month - on - month and up 145 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [59]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 spread is 103, up 7 month - on - month and up 66 year - on - year, expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [59]. - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 spread is 20, up 5 month - on - month and up 60 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant charts (top 20 long and short positions, trading volume, net long and short positions of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton) are mentioned [66][68][72][76][78][80][88]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Apple**: The number of warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year [89]. - **Jujube**: The number of warehouse receipts is 850, an increase of 164 month - on - month and 790 year - on - year [89]. - **Sugar**: The number of warehouse receipts is 396, an increase of 215 month - on - month and a decrease of 3233 year - on - year [89]. - **Pulp**: The number of warehouse receipts is 199506, a decrease of 3608 month - on - month and a decrease of 163196 year - on - year [89]. - **Cotton**: The number of warehouse receipts is 2970, an increase of 221 month - on - month and 2004 year - on - year [89]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data analysis provided, only relevant charts (option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility of apples, sugar, and cotton) are mentioned [92][96][102].

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月10日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 美联储主席进行最后一轮面试，潜在最热门人选哈塞特表示美联储 未来还有较大的降息空间，特朗普也表示降息是新任美联储主席人 选的试金石。白银再创历史新高，对铜价形成提振。近期铜金融属 性开始显现，金铜比修复。美国总统特朗普11月24日签署行政令 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月09日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 生鲜软商品板块日度 ...

期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月09日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 铜： 市场预计美联储12月鹰派降息，风险资产日间集体下挫，沪铜短期 承压下行。近期铜金融属性开始显现，金铜比修复。美国总统特朗 普11月24日签署行政令，正式启动代号为"创世使命"的国家级人 工智能计划，打开了市场对未来美国铜需求增长的想象空间。 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 【套利建议】全球第二大铜矿遭遇不可抗力，将改变未来较长时间 的铜供应曲线。美联储开启新一轮降息和扩表周期，铜合约间预计 逐步转向Contango结构。可考虑铜2602和2603合约间的反套机会 【期权建议】 期权策略上可考虑买入近月轻度虚值看涨期权。 铝产业链： 成文时间：2025年12月06日星期六 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属周度策略 Metal Futures Weekly St ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | 从业资格证号： F03095512 投资咨询证号： Z0020712 联系方式： 18001936153 投资咨询证号： Z0017427 作者： 王亮亮 从业资格证号： F03096306 联系方式： 010-68578697 作者： 辛旋 从业资格证号： F3064981 投资咨询证号： Z0016876 联系方式： -- 作者： 汤冰华 从业资格证号： F3038544 投资咨询证号： Z0015153 联系方式： 010-68518793 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月04日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 软商品板块 双胶纸： 供应递增，糖价继续承压运行，单边考虑继续持空为主，另可考虑 卖出看涨期权策略继续持有。SR2601合约支撑位关注5300-5330 ，压力位关注5450-5500； 纸浆： 【市场逻 ...

| 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月03日星期三 农产品团队 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆二、豆粕：周三，美盘偏强运行，大商所豆粕及豆二继续震荡调 整。美豆对华出口放缓，CBOT大豆走势疲软。目前我国豆类供应 较为充足，短期上涨驱动预计不足。 ...