农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月03日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 原糖方面近期多空交织，巴西生产节奏的超预期恢复偏空，但甘蔗 质量偏差及天气忧虑仍对期价存在情绪上支撑，外盘糖价短期或仍 在区 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Carbonate Lithium**: The spot price is falling, and the futures continue the downward trend. The "Golden September and Silver October" season is coming, and the inventory cycle of downstream material factories has slightly extended. The supply reduction rate has slowed down, and the inventory transfer from lithium salt enterprises to downstream continues. The probability of downstream large - scale replenishment may decrease. The downstream is advised to seize the opportunity for futures buying hedging [3][4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is steadily increasing, and the operating rate is rising. The demand from different sectors has different situations, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited with high - level inventory. In September, attention should be paid to the possible production reduction in the silicon material industry chain. The futures price is in a confrontation between weak reality and strong expectation, and is expected to continue range - bound [5]. - **Polysilicon**: The news of industry capacity acquisition has heated up the speculative sentiment. The production has no significant increase, and there is a strong expectation of self - disciplined production reduction in September. The inventory has been continuously decreasing. The spot price has risen, and the downstream acceptance needs to be concerned. The short - term sentiment is bullish, but chasing the rise blindly should be avoided [7]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Spot Price a. Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 11 | News - driven market | 70,000 - 72,000 | 80,000 - 82,000 | Stabilize and rebound | Downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stockpiling or buying hedging [13] | | Industrial Silicon 11 | Confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectation | 8,200 - 8,300 | 8,900 - 9,000 | Range - bound | Adopt range - trading thinking, and it is more recommended to sell slightly out - of - the - money put options at low prices [13] | | Polysilicon 11 | News - dominated market, short - term speculative sentiment has significantly heated up | 47,000 - 48,000 | 54,000 - 55,000 | Rebound and rise | Consider a bullish approach in the short term [13] | b. Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 71,880 | - 1.02% | 442,800 | 346,048 | - 2,061 | 34,118 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,490 | 0.24% | 275,841 | 279,742 | - 1,738 | 50,348 | | Polysilicon | 52,160 | 0.34% | 362,759 | 149,210 | 33,553,355 | 6,870.006870.00 | [14] Second Part: Fundamental Situation a. Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Last week, the production was 19,030 tons, a decrease of 108 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory was 141,136 tons, a decrease of 407 tons from the previous week, and the inventory decline rate was slower than expected [4]. - **Downstream Situation**: No specific text description provided, but relevant data charts such as the production capacity and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate are presented [25]. b. Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Supply is increasing, and the operating rate is rising. The inventory is at a high level and continues to be sorted out [5]. - **Downstream Situation**: The demand from different sectors has different trends, such as the increase in polysilicon production, the stalemate in the organic silicon market, the possible reduction in aluminum alloy production, and the improvement in export demand [5]. c. Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: In the week of August 28, 2025, the weekly production was 29,900 tons, with no significant increase, and the operating rate was 48%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The inventory has been decreasing for four consecutive weeks, and last week it was 245,000 tons [7]. - **Downstream Situation**: No specific text description provided, but relevant data charts such as the monthly production of silicon wafers and photovoltaic modules are presented [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The long - term view for soybean oil is bullish, but short - term increases may be tortuous. For Y2601, consider buying on dips around 8300 - 8310, with pressure at 8550 - 8600 yuan/ton [1]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce imports. The price of rapeseed oil is expected to be volatile in the short term, with support at 9580 - 9600 and pressure at 9998 - 10333 [1]. - Palm oil prices are under pressure from the decline in US soybean oil prices but are supported by factors such as poor production in Malaysia, good exports, and strong crude oil prices. Consider buying on dips with light positions, with support at 9200 - 9240 and pressure at 9736 - 9998 [2]. - The price of soybean meal is affected by the decline of US soybeans and weak supply. There is still support in the short - term, and the expectation of tight supply in the fourth quarter remains. Consider buying on dips, with support at 2980 - 3000 and pressure at 3180 - 3200 [2]. - The prices of corn and corn starch are under pressure from the fundamentals. Suggest reducing short positions on dips. For the 11 - contract of corn, the support is at 2100 - 2120, and the pressure is at 2240 - 2250; for the 11 - contract of corn starch, the support is at 2400 - 2420, and the pressure is at 2580 - 2590 [4]. - The price of soybean No.1 is affected by the supply increase from new beans and state - reserve auctions. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and consider shorting on rebounds. The 11 - contract has a pressure at 4145 - 4150 and support at 3850 - 3900 [5]. - The new season of peanuts has an expected increase in production and a decrease in cost. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term. The 11 - contract has support at 7500 - 7510 and pressure at 8020 - 8162 [6]. - The price of live pigs has rebounded from the low level. Consider holding long positions in the 11 - contract, and for the 2601 contract, wait for the confirmation of capacity reduction and then consider buying on dips [7]. - The price of eggs has stopped falling and rebounded. It is not recommended to short aggressively. Aggressive investors can consider buying on dips in the 2511 contract at the cash cost of farmers [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil 01 is expected to be volatile and bullish, consider buying on stabilization; rapeseed oil 01 is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see; palm oil 01 is expected to be volatile, consider buying on dips with light positions [11]. - **Proteins**: Soybean meal 01 is expected to be volatile and bullish, consider buying on stabilization; rapeseed meal 01 is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 11 and starch 11 are expected to be volatile at low levels, suggest reducing short positions on dips [11]. - **Livestock Farming**: Live pigs 11 are expected to rebound and be volatile, consider holding long positions; eggs 10 are expected to find the bottom while being volatile, consider buying on dips [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, except for soybean meal 3 - 5 which is recommended for positive arbitrage, and live pigs 1 - 3 and eggs 10 - 1 are recommended for positive arbitrage on dips [12][13]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For some varieties such as 01 soybean oil - palm oil, it is recommended for bearish operations; for 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, it is recommended for bullish operations; for 01 soybean meal - rapeseed meal, it is expected to be volatile at low levels [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties such as oils, fats, proteins, energy, and livestock farming products [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipment periods [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and startup rates of various oils and fats and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans at ports, the inventory of soybean meal at oil mills, etc [18][19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: The import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [19]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of corn and corn starch, including consumption, inventory, startup rate, etc., are presented [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - The daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, production, consumption, and inventory data, are provided [21][22][23][24][25]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming End (Live Pigs, Eggs)**: The closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, as well as the spot prices of live pigs, piglets, eggs, and culled chickens, are presented [26][27][29][30][32][34]. - **Oils and Fats and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: The production, export, inventory, and price spread data of Malaysian palm oil are presented [36][38][40][44]. - **Soybean Oil**: The data of US soybean crushing, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil mill startup rate, and inventory are presented [46][48]. - **Peanuts**: The data of peanut arrival, shipment, pressing profit, and inventory are presented [51][53]. - **Feed End**: - **Corn**: The closing price, spot price, inventory, and import data of corn are presented [55][58]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price, spot price, startup rate, and inventory data of corn starch are presented [59][60]. - **Rapeseed**: The spot price, basis, inventory, and pressing profit data of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are presented [61][63][65][67][69]. - **Soybean Meal**: The growth rate, inventory, basis, and price spread data of US soybeans are presented [74][76][78][80][82][84]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils and Fats - The historical volatility data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio data of corn options are presented [88][89]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils and Fats - The warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs are presented [92][93][94][95]

期货研究院 新能源产业链日度策略 New Energy Industry Chain daily Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 摘要 碳酸锂： 【市场逻辑】 现货方面，周二电池级碳酸锂指数价格77386元/吨，环比上一工作 日下跌870元/吨；电池级碳酸锂7.58-7.92万元/吨，均价7.75万元 /吨，环比上一工作日下跌850元/吨；工业级碳酸锂7. 45-7.59万 元/吨，均价7.52万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌850元/吨。 碳酸 锂期货价格继续下行，今日最低价已跌破7.3万元/吨关口，下游点 价成交较为活跃。当前正值"金九银十"传统需求旺季，碳酸锂现 货价格持续走低，但下游采购意愿依旧较强，库存周期小幅延长。 供应方面，江西地区锂云母端碳酸锂产量明显收缩，但锂辉石来源 的供应能够弥补部分缺口。整体来看，9月碳酸锂市场呈现供需同 步增长，且需求增速更为显著，预计当月将出现供应偏紧局面。 据SMM，供应方面，上周碳酸锂产量19030吨，较前一周回落108 吨；其中辉石锂周度产量12249吨，环比增加70吨；云母锂周度产 量2500吨，环比回落150吨；盐湖锂周度产量2515吨，环 ...

聚酯产业链期货9月报告 投资咨询业务资格:京证监许可【2012]75号 聚酯产业链：传统旺季 等待需求恢复 能源化工团队/俞杨烽 （交易咨询证号Z0015361） 年 月 日 文字/背景 Text/Background 填充色 Accents 聚酯产业链行情回顾 数据来源：文华，方正中期研究院 • 2025年8月，聚酯产业链受市场情绪和成本影响，价格区间震荡。上半月，由于成本偏弱震荡，美国威胁对购买俄罗斯原油的国家进行二级制裁，及终端需求仍 处于高温淡季，聚酯产业链价格重心震荡下移。中下旬，中美暂停加征关税继续延期90天，美俄首脑实现会晤并取得积极进展，中国石化行业存产能优化预期和 韩国将削减石脑油裂解产能，同时终端需求改善，导致聚酯产业链市场情绪修复，价格重心快速回升。月末，市场情绪回落，价格震荡回落。 2 文字/背景 Text/Background 填充色 Accents 原油：逐步转入需求淡季 价格预计承压 数据来源：文华，方正中期研究院 • 2025年8月，原油在地缘政治和供需的影响下价格先抑后扬，价格重心下移。上半月，OPEC+决定9月继续增产，美俄首脑实现会晤并且未对俄油实施二级 制裁，使得油价延 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the global copper market's volatility decreased, and copper prices showed a narrow - range oscillation with a slow upward trend. The main driver of copper prices in August was its financial attribute, and the fundamentals at home and abroad were differentiated. In September, the financial and commodity attributes of copper are expected to drive prices upwards jointly, and copper prices are expected to reach a second high in the fourth quarter [5][6][105] - The global copper supply and demand pattern in 2025 is tight, with a significant supply gap in copper concentrates. The refined copper surplus scale is expected to narrow, and the domestic copper market will be in a tight - balance pattern [88] Summary by Directory 1. Global Macro and Copper Market - In the third quarter in China, there is a policy window period, but market risk appetite has rebounded. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, which is favorable for copper prices in September. The US manufacturing industry is expanding, the employment market is loose, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, and the US dollar index has weakened [10][12][16] 2. Copper Supply Situation Analysis - **Mine End**: Globally, the supply of copper concentrates in the second quarter was relatively loose, but the annual output increase was limited. The supply shortage situation is difficult to ease in the short term, and the supply gap in 2025 is expected to exceed 1.1 million metal tons. In the future, the increment will mainly come from existing expansion projects [21][25] - **Smelting End**: Although the supply of domestic copper concentrates is tight, the production of refined copper has reached new highs. However, the constraint of mine - end supply on electrolytic copper production will become more obvious in the future. The processing fees of domestic copper concentrates are expected to continue to decline, and the production in the second half of the year is likely to be lower than that in the first half [32][35] - **Recycled Copper**: The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened, and the production of recycled copper has decreased. In the next stage, the substitution effect on copper concentrates is expected to increase [38] - **Electrolytic Copper Trade**: In the first half of 2025, China's electrolytic copper exports increased and imports decreased, achieving a tight - balance in supply and demand. After the US imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper products in August, the import window is expected to open in September, and the import volume will gradually recover [41] 3. Copper Demand Situation Analysis - **Copper Products**: The output of domestic copper products is gradually emerging from the off - season. In September, the output is likely to increase month - on - month, and the annual output is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year [46] - **Copper Rod**: The output of refined copper rods is expected to recover. In September, the downstream demand is expected to pick up, and the operating rate of enterprises is expected to rise [49] - **Copper Tube**: The output of copper tubes has decreased month by month, and the copper demand in the third quarter has dropped to the lowest point of the year. In September, the internal and external sales of air - conditioners are expected to decline significantly, and the copper demand will further decrease [52] - **Copper Bar**: The demand for copper bars is expected to decline year - on - year, and the output will show negative growth, becoming the main drag on copper consumption [55] - **Copper Plate and Strip**: The output of copper plate and strip is lower than the average level in recent years. In September, the output is expected to increase month - on - month [58] - **Copper Foil**: The output of copper foil has increased against the trend and is about to enter the peak season. In September, the output is expected to continue to increase and reach a new high for the year [65] - **Power Grid and Power Source Investment**: In 2025, the power grid investment is expected to increase, while the power source investment growth has slowed down. The copper demand on the power source side is expected to decline in the second half of the year compared with the first half [68] - **Real Estate**: The real estate investment improvement is not obvious, and it will still be the main drag on copper consumption this year [71] - **Household Appliances**: The household appliance consumption in the first half of the year has overdrawn the demand in the third quarter, and the copper demand on the household appliance side has gradually declined to the lowest point of the year [74] - **New Energy Vehicles and AI**: The output of new energy vehicles maintains high - speed growth, and the AI copper demand will contribute incremental demand in the future [78] 4. Copper Inventory Change Analysis - In August, the copper inventory trends at home and abroad were significantly differentiated. COMEX and LME copper inventories continued to accumulate, while domestic inventories decreased. In September, the domestic copper fundamentals are expected to strengthen further, and the inventories are expected to decline further [84] 5. Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply gap is expected to exceed 1.1 million metal tons. The refined copper surplus scale is expected to narrow to about 194,000 tons, and the domestic copper market will be in a tight - balance pattern [88] 6. Copper Position Analysis - In August, the total position of COMEX copper futures and options continued to decline, and the net long position decreased, which had a negative impact on copper prices. The long - position of LME copper investment funds remained basically stable [96] 7. Arbitrage Analysis - The copper Shanghai - London ratio has continued to decline since the beginning of the year. The copper - zinc ratio has continued to rise and reached the highest level in the past 10 years, and it is expected to continue to rise in the remaining time of this year [101] 8. Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - In September, the financial and commodity attributes of copper are expected to drive prices upwards jointly. The copper price is expected to reach a second high in the fourth quarter, and the high point will be higher than that in the first half of the year. Downstream demanders are recommended to actively set prices and conduct buying hedging operations on the futures market. The support range for the main contract price of Shanghai copper is expected to be 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is expected to be 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [105]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, the weight reduction in the pig industry led to an increase in slaughter volume, causing both futures and spot prices to reach new lows for the year [1][6]. - The overall atmosphere of "anti - involution" drives up the prices of risk assets, and domestic inflation expectations are likely to rise. Policy signals to support the pig market are released, but the short - term supply pressure is high due to weight reduction. For the second half of 2025, if the macro - expectations continue to strengthen, there are conditions for the valuation of low - priced pig futures to be revised upwards [3][4]. - The industry's production efficiency has improved, but the overall expansion is slow. The supply in the second half of 2025 may not be worse than in 2023, and it is recommended to go long on pig futures at low prices or buy call options near the cost [3][4]. Summary by Directory 2025 August Pig Futures and Spot Price Review - In August, the futures and spot prices of pigs fluctuated and declined, with the 2509 contract hitting a new low for the year. The decline was affected by factors such as the increase in slaughter volume due to weight reduction and the weak terminal consumption [6][25]. - Historically, the pig price in August usually shows an upward trend, but in 2025, it went against the season and weakened [41]. Pig Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The current inventory of breeding sows is in the green reasonable range, with a cumulative increase of about 3% compared to March 2024 [44][45]. - Group enterprises' capital expenditure has significantly decreased year - on - year, the price of reserve sows has been stable, and market speculation has declined [46][49]. - The production efficiency of single sows has improved, and the gap between leading enterprises is gradually narrowing. In 2025, pig slaughter volume has increased due to the recovery of breeding sow capacity and improved production efficiency, but the growth rate may not be large [51][54][55]. Listed Pig Enterprises - In 2025, the overall profitability of leading listed pig companies has expanded, but the monthly sales volume of piglets has decreased [60][63]. - The asset - liability ratio of listed companies is at a historically high level [66]. Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - From July to August, the industry's weight reduction led to an increase in slaughter volume, and the current weight is still at a high level compared to the same period in history. In August, the slaughter volume rebounded significantly and was higher than that in 2023 [70][72]. - The import volume of pork and offal has declined from a high level, and the frozen product inventory rebounded slightly at a low level in August 2025 [75][78]. - The current monthly average profit level is at the historical median. In July, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was near the break - even point, and in August, it started to make losses [81]. August Futures Price Review - The pig futures index rebounded from a historical low, and the trading volume and open interest increased significantly month - on - month and year - on - year [83]. - The near - month contract made up for the decline compared to the spot price, and the premium of the far - month contract in the peak season expanded under the support of policies [86][89]. - The basis is stronger than in previous years, and attention should be paid to the way of the regression of spot and futures prices in the third quarter [95]. - In August, the spread trading showed a reverse spread trend, and the volatility of the 2601 contract declined [98][104]. Conclusion - The industry is currently in the process of weight reduction and capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to whether the supply pressure can be alleviated in the fourth quarter. In trading, it is recommended to go long on the 2511 contract at low prices or conduct spread trading between 2601 and 2605, and sell wide - straddle option spreads when the volatility is high [106].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The weak reality is reflected in high inventory and slow sales in the spot market, while the strong expectation lies in fewer purchases in the fourth quarter and export drivers. However, the expectation is fluctuating, leading to an unstable upward trend in prices. The short - term long - term view remains bullish, and for Y2601, it is advisable to go long around 8300 - 8310, with a pressure level at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [4]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports are expected to reduce Canadian rapeseed purchases. Increased imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia can partially offset the supply. The Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by 3.6% to 1990 tons year - on - year. The price is under pressure in the short - term, with a support level at 9580 - 9698 and a pressure level at 9998 - 10333 [4]. - From August 1 - 25, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.21% month - on - month, and the export increased by 10.22% month - on - month. The decline in US soybean oil prices exerts a price - comparison pressure on palm oil. The price adjustment space is limited, with a support level at 9074 - 9100 and a pressure level at 9736 - 9998 [5]. - For soybean meal and soybean No. 2, the weak supply reality restricts the price increase. The expected increase in South American soybean imports weakens the strong supply expectation in the fourth quarter. Due to the fluctuating Sino - US trade relations, the prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 are volatile. It is advisable to wait and see for now [5]. - For rapeseed meal, due to the anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, the purchase of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease. The low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal squeezes the consumption of rapeseed meal. The price is expected to adjust downward, with a support level at 2400 - 2438 and a pressure level at 2632 - 2698 [5]. - For corn and corn starch, the external market is under pressure from the phased listing of South American corn and the expected high yield of US corn. The domestic market is also under pressure from continuous imports. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. For corn 11 contract, the support is at 2100 - 2120, and the pressure is at 2240 - 2250. For options, consider selling a wide - straddle combination or out - of - the - money call options [6]. - For soybean No. 1, the low - level supply of old soybeans and the continuous supply of reserve soybeans ensure the market supply. With the upcoming new soybeans, the supply is expected to increase. The demand is mainly rigid. It is not recommended to chase long, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. The pressure level for the 11 - contract is at 4145 - 4150, and the support is at 3850 - 3900 [7]. - The planting area of new peanuts has increased by 4.01% year - on - year, with an expected increase in production. The price is under pressure, but the downward space is narrowing. It is advisable to reduce short positions [8]. - For live pigs, the spot price rebounded this week. The slaughter volume is increasing, and the phased supply pressure is rising. The futures price has rebounded and is at a premium to the spot price. For the 11 - contract, the reference range is 13500 - 14500 points. Mid - term, wait for the confirmation of capacity reduction and then consider going long on the 2601 contract [9]. - For eggs, the futures price rebounded and then fell. The spot price has stabilized and rebounded in some areas. The futures - spot price difference is converging. It is advisable to wait and see for now. Aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [10]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 1. Market Analysis - Various products in the feed, breeding, and oil sectors are in a state of volatile adjustment. For example, soybean No. 1 11 - contract, soybean No. 2 11 - contract, peanut 11 - contract, etc. are all expected to fluctuate. For energy and by - product sectors such as corn 11 - contract and starch 11 - contract, they are in a low - level volatile state, and it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. For the breeding sector, the live pig 11 - contract is expected to rebound, and it is advisable to hold long positions [13]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - In the cross - period arbitrage, for most products, it is advisable to wait and see, such as soybean No. 1 9 - 1, soybean No. 2 9 - 1, etc. However, for the soybean meal 3 - 5 contract, it is recommended to conduct a long - spread arbitrage, with a target range of 300 - 400. In the cross - variety arbitrage, for some products, different strategies are recommended, such as short - term bearish operation for 09 soybean oil - palm oil, and long - term bullish operation for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil [14][15]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products in the feed, breeding, and oil sectors, including soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, peanut, etc. [16] Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report presents the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oils from different origins and shipping dates, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and landed duty - paid prices [18][19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as the port inventory of soybeans, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills, and the inventory of rapeseeds in coastal oil mills [20][21]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [21]. - **Weekly Data**: The data on corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of deep - processing enterprises, are presented [22]. 3. Breeding - The daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, price changes, production, consumption, and inventory data [23][25][27] Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - The report provides a series of charts on the breeding end (live pigs and eggs), oilseeds and oils, and feed end, including futures and spot prices, production, consumption, inventory, and other data trends [29][39][55] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options are presented [73][74] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The warehouse receipt data of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs are provided [76][77][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar**: The production rhythm in Brazil has improved in the first half of August, with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production, which is bearish for raw sugar. However, concerns about weather and domestic consumption improvement provide support. In China, import pressure is being realized, but the low inventory pressure of sugar - making enterprises and the warming up of transactions limit the downside space of the 2601 contract [3]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp**: The pulp industry chain shows few positive signs. Supply pressure remains, and demand improvement is limited. The price has no strong upward drive, but the low valuation provides some support [4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton**: The external market is in a long - short game, and the domestic market is affected by rumors of state reserve sales. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [6]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple**: The opening price of early - maturing apples has increased year - on - year, and concerns about the excellent fruit rate support the futures price [7]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Jujube**: The inventory of jujubes is being depleted, and the market is moving towards the peak season. The futures price of the 2601 contract is affected by multiple factors, and investors can adopt different strategies according to their risk preferences [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2510, the recommended strategy is to wait and see or take a short - term long position due to the increase in the opening price of early - maturing apples and concerns about the excellent fruit rate. The support range is 7700 - 7800, and the pressure range is 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, the recommended strategy is to reduce long positions as the commodity sentiment is strong and the third - quarter is the production - forming period, which is prone to weather premium. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [17]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, the recommended strategy is to reduce short positions as the estimated production in Brazil is lowered, and the downside space of the futures price is limited. The support range is 5530 - 5550, and the pressure range is 5630 - 5650. For Pulp 2511, the recommended strategy is to be bearish in the range because the coniferous pulp price is below the cost, but the supply pressure remains, and the price of finished paper is low. The support range is 4900 - 5000, and the pressure range is 5200 - 5300. For Cotton 2601, the recommended strategy is to return to a wait - and - see state as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rumor of state reserve sales lead to short - term price fluctuations [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In July, China's fresh apple export volume was about 53,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.39%. The estimated national apple production is expected to decrease by 2.03% according to one survey and increase by 2.35% according to another [18]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area is stable. In the northwest production area, the early - maturing Fuji is priced high, and the quality is good, with active procurement by merchants. In the sales area, the arrival of goods has increased significantly, and the price is stable [19][20]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market The temperature in the main jujube - producing areas in Xinjiang has decreased slightly, and some areas have experienced light rain. The daily arrival of goods in the sales area has decreased. The price of high - quality jujubes is strong, and the price of ordinary jujubes is stable. The sample - point physical inventory has decreased [21]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market The ISO reports that the 2025/26 sugar season will have a supply gap of only 23,100 tons. Brazil's sugar production in the first half of August has increased significantly year - on - year. In China, the spot price of sugar in different regions is reported [24][25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The price of imported radiata pine has been reduced by $20 per ton, while most suppliers keep the price of coniferous pulp unchanged. Suzano has increased the price of broad - leaf pulp for September orders [27]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market In July 2025, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports and yarn exports have increased. Argentina's cotton exports have decreased in July, and the cumulative exports in the 2024/25 season have decreased year - on - year [28]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review The daily closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of Apple 2510, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are reported [29][30]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are reported [32]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description about the basis situation, only figure references are provided [43][44][46]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apple, jujube, sugar, and cotton are in a state of oscillation. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [49]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation There is no specific text description, only figure references are provided [56][57][59]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are reported [76]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description, only figure references are provided [78][80][81].

Report Information - Authors: Yang Lina, Hu Bin, Liang Haikuan [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: Beijing Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2012] No. 75 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The non - ferrous sector is expected to gradually recover, with warming expectations of interest rate cuts and positive demand expectations. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" period is approaching, and there may be short - term recoveries in non - ferrous metals, but the upward movement requires positive resonance from each variety's fundamentals. However, the contradiction between strong reality and weak expectations will cause fluctuations and adjustments [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector is trending towards recovery. Interest rate cut expectations are warming up. China's manufacturing data shows a slight improvement, while the US manufacturing growth is slowing, and inflation is moderately rising, further boosting interest rate cut expectations. Non - ferrous metals continued to fluctuate and recover this week. Attention should be paid to the resonance signals between macro and micro factors. The upward space needs positive resonance from each variety's fundamentals [12]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The supply - demand fundamentals of Shanghai copper have turned to a situation of both supply and demand booming, with demand rising faster. The price center is expected to shift upwards, with short - term support at 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton and pressure at 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on dips [3][13]. - **Zinc**: The supply in China is increasing while demand is weak. Zinc prices are fluctuating and rebounding, with short - term support at 21600 - 21800 and pressure at 22800 - 23200. It is recommended to be slightly bullish in the short - term [4][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Shanghai aluminum is oscillating and falling in the high - level range. It is recommended to hold short positions, with support at 20000 - 20200 and pressure at 21000 - 21200. Alumina is oscillating weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is oscillating and consolidating [5][13]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are in a weak pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, with support at 250000 - 255000 and pressure at 270000 - 290000 [6][14]. - **Lead**: The supply is shrinking, and demand is in the peak - season expectation. Lead prices are fluctuating and rebounding. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with support at 16600 - 16800 and pressure at 17200 - 17400 [8][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are rebounding, and stainless steel is following nickel's upward trend. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips for both. Nickel has support at 115000 - 116000 and pressure at 123000 - 125000; stainless steel has support at 12700 - 12800 and pressure at 13000 - 13200 [9][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Copper closed at 79780 with a 0.47% increase; zinc closed at 22175 with a 0.16% increase; aluminum closed at 20645 with a 0.46% decrease; alumina closed at 3008 with a 0.92% decrease; tin closed at 273240 with a 1.94% decrease; lead closed at 16855 with a 0.15% decrease; nickel closed at 123450 with a 1.44% increase; stainless steel closed at 12950 with a 1.05% increase; cast aluminum alloy closed at 20275 with a 0.37% decrease [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Analyzes the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, net long - position changes, and net short - position changes of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, gold, etc., and the influencing factors [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - Presents the spot prices and price changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Provides various charts related to the industry chain of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [22][24][26] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Contains various charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio, zinc's Shanghai - London ratio, and the price differences between different varieties [49][51][53] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Includes various charts related to non - ferrous metals options, such as historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, and trading volume and open interest changes of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [66][69][71]