红枣市场2026年年报 红枣：守正待时 静待风起 -2025年红枣市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 宋从志 Z0020712 ▷ 摘要: ● 2025 年商品整体仍然呈现高开低走。7月份商品整体受国内"反内卷"政策影响集体 出现大涨,8-9月份金融类资产仍然延续强势表现,但大宗商品受制于近端压力偏大,部 分跌回起点。农产品整体商品属性较强、金融属性不足、受情绪影响较小,走势出现分化, 红枣期价连续冲高未形成有效突破后,转为震荡下跌。新季红枣陆续下树,当前减产预期 有所降温。2025 年新作产量调研反馈来看，新疆红枣经历 2024 年大幅丰产后，2025/26 作季相较于去年产量仍有较大幅度下滑,相较于近年产量中位数也有小幅度下滑,但减产 水平远达不到例如 2021、2023年度的绝对小年程度;从质量上看,本作李平均质量有望 好于去年同期;目前 2024年旧作库存当前仍然处于相对较高水平,令近端现货仍然承压。 红枣过去发生过的价格牛市,基本都是天气主导,红枣产自我国西部地区,产区较为分散, 产地天气复杂多变,影响红枣产量的主要天气因素包括:温度、湿度、大风及光照水平, 其中高温和大风、暴 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the polyester industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the polyester industry chain was affected by factors such as macro - sentiment fluctuations, tariff conflicts, cost oscillations, device changes, and weak demand, leading to intensified price fluctuations and a further downward shift in the price center, hitting a historical low since 2007 [2][21]. - In 2026, the cost is expected to maintain relatively weak wide - range fluctuations. The oversupply of crude oil will put further downward pressure on oil prices, with Brent crude oil mainly fluctuating in the range of $50 - 75 per barrel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - The price of the polyester industry chain fluctuated significantly in 2025, showing different trends in each quarter due to various factors such as cost, tariffs, and device maintenance. For example, in the first quarter, it showed a trend of rising first and then falling; in the second quarter, it was affected by tariffs and device maintenance, showing a deep V - shaped trend [21][22][23]. 3.2 Crude Oil: Supply Surplus and Price Pressure - In 2025, crude oil prices continued to decline under the pressure of continuous production increase, but were also affected by US tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, resulting in sharp price fluctuations. Brent crude oil fell below $59 per barrel, and WTI crude oil fell below $56 per barrel, both hitting new lows since February 2021 [29]. - In 2026, crude oil demand is expected to grow slowly, and supply growth will slow down, but there will still be an oversupply situation, and oil prices will continue to be under pressure. It is expected that Brent crude oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of $50 - 75 per barrel [34]. 3.3 PX: Capacity Increase and Supply - Demand Expected to Be Tight First and Then Loose - **Market Review**: In 2025, PX prices were affected by multiple factors and fluctuated widely, with the price center shifting downwards. In the first half of the year, prices declined, and in the second half, they showed a relatively strong performance, and the PX - Nap spread strengthened [45]. - **Cost Analysis**: The cost of PX is expected to be relatively weak. Naphtha supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose, and the cracking spread is expected to decline to the range of $50 - 100 per ton. The supply - demand of MX is also expected to be loose, and the PX - MX spread will remain at a relatively strong level above $80 per ton [58][66]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: PX capacity expansion is coming to an end. In 2026, the supply - demand structure is expected to be tight first and then loose. The supply - demand will be relatively tight in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter during the maintenance season, and the PX - Nap spread is expected to widen [79][114]. - **Price Forecast and Operation Suggestions**: PX prices are expected to be relatively strong, especially in the second quarter, but the absolute price will still be restricted by cost. The main price fluctuation range is 5400 - 7700 yuan per ton. It is recommended to buy on dips and seize short - selling opportunities. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the basis, with a target of 300 - 600 yuan per ton, and go long on the PX05 - 09 spread, with a target of 100 - 200 yuan per ton [116]. 3.4 PTA: Stable Supply and Increasing Demand, Supply - Demand Structure to Improve - **Market Review**: In 2025, PTA prices fluctuated widely, with the price center shifting downwards. The market was affected by factors such as trade conflicts, cost fluctuations, and anti - involution [127]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In 2026, there is no new PTA capacity plan, but downstream polyester capacity will continue to expand, which will improve the PTA supply - demand structure. The processing fee is expected to rise to the range of 300 - 500 yuan per ton, and the operating rate is expected to increase to the range of 80% - 90% [137][144]. - **Price Forecast and Operation Suggestions**: PTA prices will still follow cost fluctuations. The main price fluctuation range is 3800 - 5600 yuan per ton. It is recommended to buy high and sell low according to cost trends and seasonal laws. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the basis and seize opportunities to go long on the PTA05 - 09 spread [186]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol: Capacity Continues to Increase, Price Still Under Pressure - **Market Review**: In 2025, ethylene glycol prices continued to decline, hitting a new low in nearly five years. In the first half of the year, it showed a good supply - demand structure, but in the second half, the price was under pressure due to factors such as increased supply and weak cost [195]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2026, ethylene glycol supply and demand will both increase, but the supply will be relatively loose. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 4500 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short on rallies and seize short - term long - buying opportunities [256]. - **Arbitrage Suggestions**: It is recommended to short the basis on rallies and seize opportunities to go long on the ethylene glycol 05 - 09 spread [248]. 3.6 Polyester Staple Fiber: Capacity Expansion, Supply - Demand Weakening - **Market Review**: In 2025, polyester staple fiber prices were affected by factors such as weak terminal demand and cost decline, with the absolute price declining, but the processing fee remained stable around the break - even point [266]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In 2026, the supply and demand of polyester staple fiber will both increase, but the supply increase will be greater than the demand increase, which will put pressure on the processing fee. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 5800 - 6800 yuan per ton [331]. - **Operation and Arbitrage Suggestions**: It is recommended to mainly short according to the cost, and try to go long from August to September according to the seasonal law. For arbitrage, pay attention to fundamental changes and seize opportunities to go long on the basis and the PF05 - 09 spread [331]. 3.7 Polyester Bottle Chips: Continued Capacity Expansion, Profit Still Under Pressure - **Market Review**: In 2025, polyester bottle chip prices were affected by factors such as capacity expansion and cost fluctuations, with the price center shifting downwards, and the processing fee was at a low level [338]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2026, the supply of polyester bottle chips is expected to increase, and the demand will increase steadily. The supply - demand will maintain a dynamic wide - balance, which will still strongly suppress the processing fee. The price is expected to be strong first and then weak, with the main fluctuation range of 5200 - 6400 yuan per ton [382]. - **Operation and Arbitrage Suggestions**: It is recommended to short on rallies and seize short - term long - buying opportunities according to seasonal laws, cost trends, and device maintenance dynamics. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the basis on rallies and pay attention to opportunities to short the PR03/05 spread [382]. 3.8 Polyester Industry Chain - Related Stocks As of December 12, different stocks in the polyester industry chain showed different trends. For example, the stock price of PetroChina increased by 8.67%, while the stock price of Sinopec decreased by 11.89% [383].

➢ 请务必阅读最后重要事项 | 1 | | --- | | 1 | | 2025 2 | | 4 | | 5 | | 5 | | 6 | | 7 | | 8 | | 8 | | 8 | | 9 | | 10 | | MHP 11 | | 13 | | 14 | | MHP 16 | | 17 | | 18 | | --- | | 20 | | 20 | | 20 | | 21 | | 22 | | 23 | | 23 | | 24 | | 24 | | 25 | | 26 | | 27 | | LME 27 | | 28 | | 30 | | 32 | | 32 | | 图 1:沪绿长期走势回顾 | | --- | | 图 2．镍期货走势 | | 图 3: 期货收盘价(活跃):不锈钢 . | | 图 4: 精炼银升贴水 | | 图 5: 上海期货交易所:镍:成交量 . | | 图 6: 上海期货交易所:镍,持仓量:期末值 . | | 图 7: 上海期货交易所:不锈钢:成交量及当月同比. | | 图 8: 上海期货交易所:不锈钢:持仓量,期末值 | | 图 9: 美元与有色金属 … | | 图 10: 美国:供 ...

Group 1: Report Structure - The report includes sections on asphalt market trend review, upstream crude oil trend analysis, asphalt supply and demand analysis, supply - demand balance sheet prediction, asphalt option analysis, technical and seasonal analysis, market outlook, and related stock price and return statistics [4] Group 2: Supply Analysis - Asphalt raw materials have shifted to high - cost quota crude oil [4] - Domestic asphalt refinery operations have been continuously restricted [4] - Asphalt imports have declined significantly [4] Group 3: Demand Analysis - During the "15th Five - Year Plan", the incremental investment in highway construction is expected to further decline [4] - The growth of asphalt road demand has continued to slow down [4] - The sluggish real - estate market has curbed the waterproofing demand for asphalt [4] Group 4: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet provides data on asphalt production, imports, initial inventory, total supply, domestic demand, exports, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory changes from January to December 2025, with some data for November and December being estimates [37] Group 5: Price Seasonality - The monthly price change statistics of asphalt from 2015 to 2025 show significant fluctuations, with different trends in each month and year [53] Group 6: Related Stocks - The report lists the stock abbreviations, codes, latest prices, and year - to - date returns of multiple asphalt - related stocks, such as Huajin Co., Ltd. with a 6.45% return and Longzhou Co., Ltd. with a 125.53% return [57]

金融期货 2026 年年报 金融期货和期权：半江瑟瑟半江红 ——2025 年金融期货市场回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 宏观金融与航运团队 李彦森 Z0013871 摘要： 2025 年股指呈现持续震荡向上走势，以及明显的三阶段走势特征。国内经济稳经 济政策、"反内卷"带来经济修复预期、贸易冲突中中国经济的韧性等，是带动市 场情绪改善、支持指数上行的主要原因，并叠加有新质生产力行业预期改善、中美 贸易冲突暂停、A 股市场机制改革、美联储降息等阶段性利好因素影响，但指数受到 经济基本面支持有限。债市今年逻辑与此前相比有所变化，受"资产荒"影响明显 下降，受政策扩张、通缩改善影响上升，整体呈现出价格回落、利率反弹走势，且 曲线逐步陡峭化。我们预计 2026 年宏观政策、新质生产力行业仍是股指的主要带动， 同时经济基本面支持将逐步上升，叠加依然存在的地缘政治风险看，股指仍将继续 宽幅震荡、中枢抬升的走势。债市则依然将面临通缩转向通胀、名义增速修复的风 险。而财政政策大概率加速扩张，对净供给也有不利影。但货币政策宽松支持下， 利率上方有顶。曲线则继续陡峭化步伐不变。 预计 2026 年股指均为震荡上行、 ...

| 第一部分 烯烃行情回顾… | | --- | | 一、历史价格走势回顾 | | 二、2025年行情回顾… | | 第二部分 成本端及利润情况 | | 一、供应增加 原油运行中枢小幅下移 | | 二、烯烃效益表现不一 | | 第三部分丙烯供应情况分析 . | | 一、丙烯产能投放维持扩张 | | 二、丙烯产量增长明显 | | 三、丙烯进口依存度逐年下降 | | 第四部分丙烯需求情况分析 . | | 一、丙烯下游需求继续增长 | | 二、丙烯出口量小幅波动 | | 第五部分 聚烯烃供应情况分析 | | 聚烯烃新装置投产偏多 | | 二、聚烯烃装置检修集中 检修损失量继续增长… | | 三、产量增长明显 . | | 吗、聚烯烃进口收缩 出口逐步放量 | | 五、聚烯烃库存李节性古化 | | 第六部分 聚烯烃下游需求情况 | | 聚乙烯雷求增长缓慢 | | 二、聚丙烯下游需求缓慢增长 | | 三、终端需求增速放缓。… | | 第七部分 供需平衡表 | | 第八部分 技术分析与季节性走势… | | 第九部分 期权市场. | | 第十部分 后市展望及操作建议 | | 第十一部分 聚烯烃行业股票 | | 图1： 丙烯现 ...

Report Structure and Content Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Not explicitly stated, but the report comprehensively analyzes the supply - demand situations of pure benzene and styrene, including historical and future trends 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Part I: Pure Benzene/Styrene Market Review - Reviews the historical and 2025 market conditions of pure benzene and styrene, and analyzes futures trading volume and open interest [5] Part II: Cost - side Market Review and Outlook - Not elaborated in the provided text Part III: Pure Benzene Supply Analysis - The expected growth rate of pure benzene production capacity will slow down - The supply of pure benzene will increase steadily - The import volume of pure benzene will remain at a high level [5] Part IV: Pure Benzene Demand Analysis - The growth rate of downstream production capacity is expected to slow down - The demand for pure benzene will continue to grow slightly [5] Part V: Styrene Supply Analysis - Styrene investment plans are decreasing, and the industry's production capacity growth rate may slow down - The supply pressure of styrene may be relieved - Analyzes styrene plant profit and basis - Styrene imports have shrunk to a low level, and exports are growing slowly [5] Part VI: Styrene Downstream Demand Analysis - The growth rate of terminal demand has slowed down - The EPS industry faces high inventory pressure and squeezed profits - The PS production capacity is gradually being released, and prices are under pressure - There is a large amount of new ABS production capacity, and the supply pressure remains high [5] Part VII: Styrene Port Inventory Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided text Part VIII: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Provides supply - demand balance sheet forecasts for pure benzene and styrene [11] Part IX: Technical Analysis and Seasonal Trends - Conducts technical analysis and seasonal trend analysis on styrene [5] Part X: Option Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided text Part XI: Summary and Operation Suggestions - Not elaborated in the provided text Part XII: Industry - related Stocks - Lists some industry - related stocks and their closing prices and annual price changes [11][104] 4. New Device Production and Investment Plan Summary Pure Benzene New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2026, multiple pure benzene production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 2430,000 tons [30] - From 2025 - 2026, some hydrogenated benzene production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 371,000 tons [31] Pure Benzene Downstream New Device Production and Investment Plan (Excluding Styrene) - In 2025, new devices of multiple pure benzene downstream industries (excluding styrene) are put into operation, with a total production capacity of about 2,262,000 tons [40][41] Styrene New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2025 - 2026, multiple styrene production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 4160,000 tons [47][48][69] EPS New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2025 - 2026, some EPS production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 2160,000 tons [74] PS New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2025 - 2026, some PS production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 2,935,000 tons [81] ABS New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2025 - 2026, some ABS production devices are planned to be put into operation, but the specific total production capacity is not clearly summarized in a unified manner [5] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Data Pure Benzene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2016 - 2026E, it shows the data of the beginning inventory, production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, ending inventory, and inventory changes of pure benzene [91] Styrene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - For 2025E and 2026E, it shows the data of the beginning inventory, production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, ending inventory, and inventory changes of styrene [92] 6. Price Fluctuation Data - Provides the monthly price change rates of pure benzene and styrene from 2013 - 2025 [97][99] 7. Industry - related Stocks - Lists the stocks of companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Huajin Co., Ltd., Sinopec, PetroChina, Hengli Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, along with their closing prices and annual price changes [11][104]

➢ 摘要： 1 | 3 | | --- | | 3 | | 4 | | 7 | | 13 | | 14 | | 16 | | 16 | | 23 | | 27 | | 30 | | 36 | | 36 | | 37 | | 38 | | 40 | | 41 | | 43 | | 43 | | 46 | | 48 | | 48 | | 49 | | 51 | 3 4 图 1-1：1980-2026 年 IMF 对于全球实际 GDP 增速统计和预测 数据来源：Wind、方正中期期货研究院整理 5 数据来源：Wind、方正中期期货研究院整理 6 前三季度/上半年 同比 环比 同比 环比 同比 环比 同比 美 国 2.0% -0.2% 2.1% 0.9% 2.1% 加拿大 2.9% 0.5% 1.6% -0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 2.0% 欧 盟 1.7% 0.5% 1.6% 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 1.6% 英 国 1.8% 0.7% 1.4% 0.3% 1.3% 0.1% 1.5% 瑞 士 2.5% -1.8% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% -0.9% 1.4% 日 本 1.6% 0.4% 1.9% 0 ...

➢ 摘要： 2025 年沪铝震荡上行，氧化铝则持续一路走弱。铸造铝合金自上市后行情走势基 本与沪铝同频。 2025 年产业链上游紧张态势有所缓解。矿石进口量增加，国内矿山生产扰动相对 有限。氧化铝产能开工率维持高位，且有多项新产能及复产产能陆续投放。然而，随 着氧化铝现货价格大幅下跌、利润显著收缩甚至陷入亏损，部分高成本产能已出现停 产检修。未来，停产产能与新投、复产产能之间的博弈将成为影响氧化铝价格的核心 因素。电解铝环节因成本下降、利润大幅提升，开工率随之上升，在产产能近乎满负 荷运行，预计 2026 年这一态势仍将延续。 下游加工行业开工率呈现明显分化：建筑型材、板带箔等传统领域表现平淡，而 线缆、合金及工业型材等领域则相对亮眼。终端需求中，新能源相关产业及电网建设 领域保持良好增长。预计 2026 年新能源汽车产销量增速可能随补贴退坡而放缓，但电 网建设在"十五五"新规划周期内仍将维持较高增长水平。库存方面则存在一定隐忧： 行业铸锭量持续偏低导致库存重心不断下移，低库存水平削弱了价格缓冲空间，这一 点从每逢交割临近时盘面资金的活跃度即可见一斑。 展望 2026 年，全球宏观环境的复杂性与严峻性仍将显著 ...

玻璃纯碱市场 2026 年年报 玻璃纯碱：春寒料峭处 双碳谋新篇 ——2025 年玻璃纯碱市场回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 能源化工团队 魏朝明 Z0015738 摘要： 2025年浮法玻璃行业产线运行情况相对平稳，年内浮法玻璃日熔量稳定运行在16 万吨下方。截至12月初全国浮法玻璃生产线共计284条，在产216条，日熔量共计 154555吨。尽管玻璃需求和价格走势整体偏弱，年中玻璃价格受季节性因素及利好 消息带动波动显著，为行业带来盈利或者减亏的可能。玻璃产能稳定运行显示当前行 业亏损幅度及亏损周期尚不足以引发更多玻璃产线冷修从而带动行情反转。2026年玻 璃行业或将经历需求倒逼供应减量的市场化出清阶段。2026年度玻璃期现货价格波动 的核心区间为850-1250元/吨。 2025年纯碱供应形势保持平稳，岁末年初有新装置投产，2026年纯碱产能有进一 步增加预期。行业过剩压力增加，亏损程度加深。由于供应增加和需求下滑态势或于 2026年延续，纯碱产业需要积极关注期货及期权工具对管理生产经营风险的重要作用， 积极关注盘面情绪波动给出的套保机会。2026年度纯碱期现货价格波动的核心区间为 100 ...