Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo

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方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250730
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:39
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The non - US copper market has low inventory, and the domestic copper market is expected to have a situation of weak supply and strong demand, but the short - term price lacks an obvious upward driver. Zinc has an increase in supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak. The aluminum industry chain is recommended to be short - sold, and the fundamentals of tin are weak. Lead shows a range - bound trend, and nickel and stainless steel are in a weak situation [3][4][5][6][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Part One: Logic of Non - ferrous Metals Operation and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector adjusts and falls after taking profits in the domestic anti - involution stage. The market focuses on trade negotiations and domestic policies. The US - EU trade agreement boosts the US dollar, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals [11] - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: It is expected to stop falling and rebound, with support at 78000 - 79000 and pressure at 80000 - 82000. Suggested to buy at low prices [13] - **Zinc**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, with support at 21600 - 21800 and pressure at 22800 - 23100. Suggested to short at high prices [13] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It is expected to be weakly volatile. Suggested short - selling for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [13][14] - **Tin**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, with support at 250000 - 255000 and pressure at 270000 - 290000. Suggested short - selling [14] - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate in a range, with support at 16600 - 16800 and pressure at 17200 - 17400. Suggested to buy at low prices [14][15] - **Nickel**: It is expected to be bearish, with support at 115000 - 116000 and pressure at 122000 - 123000. Suggested to short at high prices [15] - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, with support at 12300 - 12400 and pressure at 12800 - 13000. Suggested to short at high prices [15] 2. Part Two: Review of Non - ferrous Metals Market - The closing prices and daily changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are presented [16] 3. Part Three: Position Analysis of Non - ferrous Metals - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector includes information on net long and short positions, their changes, and influencing factors for different varieties [18] 4. Part Four: Spot Market of Non - ferrous Metals - The spot prices and daily changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy are provided [19][21] 5. Part Five: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Charts related to the industry chain of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [22][26][28][33][39][41][46][52] 6. Part Six: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to the arbitrage of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel are presented, including ratio changes, basis, and spread trends [54][56][59][62][66][69][70] 7. Part Seven: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the options of copper, zinc, and aluminum are presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [72][73][75]
方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250729
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 07:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is generally in an adjustment phase, following the profit - taking adjustment of domestic anti - involution stocks. The overall non - ferrous metals market continues to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the changes in the manufacturing industry and the lagged impact of tariff increases after the trade situation becomes clear [12]. - The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, which may boost the US dollar in the short term. The progress of China - US trade negotiations also needs to be closely monitored [12]. - The domestic policy benefits have led to a rotational upward movement in the industrial product sector, but the sustainability and intensity of the spillover effect are average, and the impact during adjustments is also limited. Future attention should be paid to specific policies and their implementation [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations for Non - Ferrous Metals 3.1.1 Macro Logic - The non - ferrous metals sector is adjusting, and the varieties that had a relatively obvious weekly rebound last week are also those with relatively large adjustment amplitudes. The market continues to focus on China's future policy direction and the progress of China - US trade negotiations [12]. - The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, covering 15% of EU goods exported to the US. The US has reached agreements with important trading partners, which may boost the US dollar in the short term [12]. 3.1.2 Investment Recommendations for Different Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX copper premium over LME copper may decline. Although the "siphon effect" in the US market has ended, the non - US market inventory is low. The domestic copper market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and strong demand, but the short - term upward drive for copper prices is lacking. It is recommended to sell near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc follows the adjustment. The supply of zinc ingots is increasing, and the demand shows mixed trends. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The market sentiment has declined. For electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach and buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [6]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals of tin are weak in both supply and demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach and pay attention to the situation of the ore end and macro - impacts. Buying out - of - the money put options is also suggested [7]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a consolidation phase. The social inventory is rising, but the demand is recovering. It is recommended to go long on dips and use a wide - range option straddle strategy [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The overall supply of refined nickel is in surplus. Nickel and stainless steel are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies for nickel and take a short - selling approach within the range for stainless steel [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are presented, including copper (- 0.32% to 79000), zinc (- 1.05% to 22645), aluminum (- 0.70% to 20615), etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Information on the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is provided, including the percentage change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for each variety such as Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Gold, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, such as the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price (- 0.48% to 79260 yuan/ton), the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot average price (- 0.57% to 22630 yuan/ton), etc. [20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each metal (copper, zinc, aluminum, etc.), relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to the arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, the Shanghai zinc - Shanghai lead price difference, etc. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the options of various non - ferrous metals are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest.
方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块周度策略报告-20250728
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 08:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: Concerns about Brazil's new sugar - cane crushing season supply and increased demand from the US, Pakistan, etc., may boost the raw sugar futures price, which is expected to remain volatile. In the Chinese market, the strong macro and commodity sentiment boosts the sentiment of going long on Zhengzhou sugar futures. The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the spot price is relatively firm, but the import pressure is increasing, and the futures price faces certain pressure [4]. - **Pulp**: The re - inflation expectation driven by anti - involution has led to the rise of low - priced commodities, and pulp has also risen. The fundamentals of the pulp and paper industry have changed little. The supply of hardwood pulp and the finished paper market still drag down the pulp futures. The upward space needs to track the market sentiment [6]. - **Cotton**: Globally, the new - season cotton has changed from a slight destocking to a slight stocking, which suppresses the market. However, factors such as the decrease in the US planting area and the slow progress of planting in India provide potential support. In the Chinese market, it is a game between the expectation of tightened supply and weak downstream consumption, and the futures price enters a shock period [8]. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector - **Apple**: The apple futures price continues to fluctuate at a high level. The reasons for the recent rise are the strong overall commodity sentiment, the drive of the jujube market, and its own fundamentals. The low inventory of the old season, the slight reduction in production of the new season, and the year - on - year increase in the opening price of early - maturing apples support the price. The later price trend depends on the production, quality, and harvest progress of the new - season apples [9]. - **Jujube**: The jujube futures price fluctuates widely. The spot inventory depletion speed is slow, and the consumption is in the off - season. The new - season fruit listing substitutes the jujube consumption. Attention should be paid to the impact of the weather on the fruit setting of the new - season jujube trees [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Recommended Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | Pay attention to short - selling opportunities | The initial production forecast is basically finalized, and the opening price of early - maturing apples has risen slightly year - on - year, with limited increase. The overall futures price is expected to remain within a range | 7300 - 7350 | 8000 - 8100 | | Jujube 2601 | Go long on dips | The influence of weather factors increases | 9000 - 9300 | 104400 - 11500 | | Sugar 2509 | Gradually reduce long positions on rallies | The rebound of the raw sugar futures price boosts the sentiment of the Zhengzhou sugar market. The futures price fluctuates strongly, but the upward space is relatively limited | 5790 - 5810 | 5900 - 5920 | | Pulp 2507 | Short - sellers reduce positions on dips | The improvement of the commodity market sentiment drives the pulp to rebound. However, there is no news of production cuts in the pulp and paper industry, and the peak season of finished paper demand has not arrived, so the upward height of pulp is not optimistic | 5200 - 5250 | 5500 - 5600 | | Cotton 2509 | Reduce long positions on rallies | The support of low inventory and low imports has been partially realized, and the futures price enters a shock period in the short term | 13200 - 13300 | 14400 - 14500 | [18] Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review 1. Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | 8005 | 122 | 1.55 | | Jujube 2509 | 9435 | 105 | 1.13 | | Sugar 2509 | 5876 | 50 | 0.86 | | Pulp 2509 | 5520 | 228 | 4.31 | | Cotton 2509 | 14170 | - 100 | - 0.70 | [19] 2. Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | MoM Change | YoY Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.90 | 0.00 | - 0.25 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 6050 | 0 | - 410 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5950 | 0 | - 150 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15549 | - 14 | - 46 | [27] Third Part: Sector Basis Situation The content mainly provides relevant charts, including the basis of Apple 10 - month, jujube main - continuous, sugar main - continuous, and pulp main - continuous, but no specific data summary is given [39][40][41][43]. Fourth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation The content mainly provides relevant charts, including the spreads of Apple 10 - 1, Apple 1 - 5, jujube 1/5, jujube 5/9, sugar 5 - 9, and sugar 9 - 1, but no specific data summary is given [46][47][50]. Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | MoM Change | YoY Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8813 | - 80 | - 2610 | | Sugar | 20642 | - 298 | 4470 | | Pulp | 255698 | 0 | - 254215 | | Cotton | 9265 | - 72 | - 2636 | [51] Sixth Part: Option - related Data | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | The initial production forecast is basically finalized, and the reduction in production amplitude has converged compared with the previous period | Hold out - of - the - money call options | | Jujube 2509 | New jujube production increase and concentrated listing | Sell deep out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2509 | The spot price is firm, and the raw sugar futures price rebounds | Sell deep out - of - the - money put options | | Cotton 2509 | The bullish factors have been realized, and the upward trend of the futures price slows down in the short term | Hold out - of - the - money put options | [51] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation - **Apple**: The content provides charts of the minimum temperature, precipitation, export quantity, and storage inventory in major apple - producing areas, but no specific data summary is given [73][77][79] - **Jujube**: The content provides charts of the weekly trading volume in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, but no specific data summary is given [82][84] - **Sugar**: The content provides charts of the national sugar industrial inventory, sugar import quantity, and sugar spot - futures difference, but no specific data summary is given [88][89][93] - **Pulp**: The content provides charts of domestic pulp inventory, global producer pulp inventory days, paper production, and pulp import quantity, but no specific data summary is given [91][94][103] - **Cotton**: The content provides charts of national cotton industrial inventory, commercial inventory, import quantity, clothing retail value, and clothing export amount, but no specific data summary is given [105][110][111]
方正中期期货有色金属周度策略-20250728
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 08:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - US copper market has low inventory, and the domestic copper market is expected to have a situation of weak supply and strong demand, with inventory depletion likely to continue. The short - term price of Shanghai copper lacks a clear driver and maintains low volatility [3]. - The aluminum market sentiment has slightly declined, and it is recommended to wait and see. For different aluminum - related products, corresponding support and pressure intervals are given, and options can be used for protection [5]. - The fundamentals of tin are in a situation of both weak supply and demand, with the market oscillating weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [5]. - The zinc market has an increase in supply and weak demand, with import processing fees rising. The price is expected to be short - term bearish with a certain support level [6]. - The lead market has a recovery in demand, and attention should be paid to the driving force of the peak season and the macro - orientation. It can be considered to go long at low prices [6]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are affected by multiple factors such as the dollar and trade agreements. They are in an oscillating state, and short - term short - selling strategies can be considered [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro - logic**: The non - ferrous metal sector rebounded to different degrees this week. Domestic policies are favorable, but the spill - over effect on non - ferrous metals is limited in terms of persistence and intensity. Overseas, tariff negotiations are still ongoing, and the market is cautious. The future trend of non - ferrous metals depends on the resonance of supply - demand fundamentals and the macro - environment [10][12]. - **Single - side strategies for each variety**: - **Copper**: It is recommended to go long at low prices, as the non - US market inventory is low and the domestic copper market is expected to have a supply - demand imbalance with weak supply and strong demand [13]. - **Zinc**: Adopt a strategy of short - term long and medium - term short, as the supply is increasing and the demand is weak [13]. - **Aluminum industry chain**: It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short term, as the supply and demand situation is not optimistic [14]. - **Tin**: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, as the market is in an interval oscillation [14]. - **Lead**: Consider buying a bull spread at low prices or using a wide - interval double - selling strategy, as the market is in an interval arrangement [14]. - **Nickel**: Sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices, as the market is in an interval fluctuation [15]. - **Stainless steel**: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, as the market is in an oscillating state [15]. - **Arbitrage strategies**: - **Copper 2508 - 2509 contract positive spread**: After the tariff expectation is fulfilled, the short - term negative impact on Shanghai copper is basically over, and the domestic copper market fundamentals are turning to weak supply and strong demand [16]. - **Alumina 2502 - 2509 contract reverse spread**: The near - strong and far - weak structure of alumina has returned [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and weekly price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures, including copper, aluminum, tin, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Tracking of Key Data in the Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety (copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel), relevant data tracking charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and production capacity utilization rates [22][24][33][35][41][49][57][67]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - For each non - ferrous metal variety (copper, zinc, aluminum and alumina, tin, lead, nickel and stainless steel), relevant arbitrage data charts are provided, such as the ratio of Shanghai and London prices, basis spreads, and spreads between different contracts [72][74][75][78][81][86][87]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For each non - ferrous metal variety (copper, zinc, aluminum), relevant option data charts are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [91][93][94].
方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250725
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 05:32
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector generally rebounded last weekend and strengthened. The impact of trade negotiations and tariffs has temporarily eased, and the market is now focusing on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. China's anti - involution policies and expected major infrastructure projects are boosting the demand for industrial products, driving the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend, but the sustainability is average. The current rebound is regarded as a phased one, with short - term cautious bullish operations recommended, while avoiding over - chasing the rise [12][13]. Group 3: Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Advice - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector rebounded, influenced by trade negotiations, interest - rate cut expectations, China's anti - involution policies, and large - scale infrastructure projects. The market is cautiously bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to specific policies, individual supply - demand drivers, and leading varieties [12][13]. - **Weekly Focus**: Powell's speech, ECB interest - rate decision, European and US economic data, and China's LPR are the key points to watch this week [14]. - **Variety Strategies** - **Copper**: Social inventory is decreasing, supply is expected to tighten, and demand is likely to increase. It is expected to rebound, with a recommended strategy of buying on dips [3][15]. - **Zinc**: It is showing a phased upward trend, with increasing supply and moderate demand. Short - term bullish, medium - term bearish on rallies [4][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is in a volatile consolidation, alumina has a wide - range fluctuation, and cast aluminum alloy is also in consolidation. It is recommended to reduce long positions and wait and see [5][17]. - **Tin**: Fundamentals are weak, but it is rising due to external factors. Short - term bullish thinking, with attention to the mining end and macro factors [6][17]. - **Lead**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is recovering slowly, and it is in a volatile and weak state. A bearish - on - volatility strategy is recommended [7][18]. - **Nickel**: There is a phased rebound, but the long - term supply - demand situation is bearish. Short - term bullish, medium - term bearish on rallies [9][18]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is in a range - bound and relatively strong state, with a recommended high - selling and low - buying strategy [9][18]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices**: Copper closed at 79,890 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase; zinc at 23,015 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase; aluminum at 20,760 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease; alumina at 3,427 yuan/ton with a 2.15% increase; tin at 273,950 yuan/ton with a 2.01% increase; lead at 16,890 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; nickel at 124,360 yuan/ton with a 0.80% increase; stainless steel at 12,935 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase; and cast aluminum alloy at 20,135 yuan/ton with a 0.10% decrease [19]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal futures contracts show varying net long - short positions and changes, affected by non - main - force funds or main - force position adjustments [21]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Copper Spot**: Yangtze River spot price is 79,900 yuan/ton with a 0.04% decrease; Wumaomao 1 average price is 79,755 yuan/ton with a 0.15% decrease [22]. - **Zinc Spot**: Yangtze River 0 zinc average price is 22,860 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase; Yangtze River 1 zinc is 22,760 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase [22]. - **Aluminum Spot**: Yangtze River average price is 20,720 yuan/ton with a 0.67% decrease; Nanchu Foshan A00 aluminum ingot average price is 20,710 yuan/ton with a 0.53% decrease [22]. - **Alumina Spot**: Antai Ke national average price is 3,255 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase; hydrated bauxite in Henan is 550 yuan/ton with no change [22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides various charts related to the industry chain of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [25][30][32]. Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report presents multiple charts for different non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, to analyze their arbitrage opportunities, including ratio changes, basis, and spread trends [56][60][62]. Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report includes charts on option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and position changes for copper, zinc, and aluminum, providing references for option trading [76][78][81].
养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250725
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 05:18
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily strategy recommendations for feed, breeding, and oil industries, including market analysis, support and resistance levels, and trading strategies for various commodities such as soybeans, palm oil, and livestock [3][4][5]. - It also presents data on import costs, inventory, and operating rates for these industries, as well as charts for tracking market fundamentals and option volatility [16][18][80]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, while soybean No. 2 09 contract will adjust. Peanut 10 contract is likely to decline. Long positions in soybean oil 01 contract can be held [11]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil 09 contract will fluctuate within a range, and long positions can be taken at low levels. Palm oil 09 contract is expected to rise, and long positions should be held [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 09 contract is expected to fall, and long positions should be closed. Rapeseed meal 09 contract will decline, and long positions should be exited [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 and starch 09 contracts will fluctuate, and short positions can be reduced at low levels [11]. - **Livestock**: Pig 09 contract will rebound, and long positions can be reduced at high levels. Egg 09 contract will bottom - hunt, and long positions can be taken at low levels [11]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For most cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, the recommended strategy is to wait and see. However, for some, such as soybean meal 11 - 1, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1, a positive spread strategy at low levels is suggested [12][13]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis information for various commodities in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [14]. Part II: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes import cost data for soybeans from different origins and shipping dates, rapeseeds, and palm oil [16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows inventory and operating rate data for beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil are provided [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Data on corn consumption, inventory, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory are presented [19]. 3. Breeding - It provides daily and weekly data on the pig and egg markets, including prices, costs, profits, and inventory [20][22][24]. Part III: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Breeding End**: Charts for tracking the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as spot prices, are provided [25][29]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: Charts for palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, including production, exports, inventory, and trading volume, are presented [34][47][54]. - **Feed End**: Charts for corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal, including inventory, consumption, and processing profits, are shown [58][64][72]. Part IV: Option Situation for Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - Charts for historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open interest for corn, are provided [80]. Part V: Warehouse Receipt Situation for Feed, Breeding, and Oils - Charts for warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs are presented [83].
方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250724
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 03:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The non - ferrous metals sector continued the general rebound trend from last weekend, with its performance strengthening compared to the previous period. The impact of trade negotiations and tariffs was temporarily alleviated. The market was focusing on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data was resilient, and the Fed's decision - making independence led to changes in interest - rate cut expectations. In China, policies were introduced to promote stable growth in key industrial sectors, and major infrastructure projects were launched, which drove the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend, but the sustainability was average. The non - ferrous metals market showed an oscillatory and strengthening trend. Future operations should be cautiously bullish in the short - term, but avoid over - chasing the rise [11][12]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties had different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper was expected to show a situation of weak supply and strong demand, with inventory depletion likely to continue; zinc was in a state of increasing supply and weak demand, with an oscillatory and strengthening trend in the short - term and a bearish outlook in the medium - term; aluminum and its related products in the industry had different trends in cost, supply, and demand, and corresponding investment strategies were recommended [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector rebounded. Trade and tariff impacts were temporarily alleviated. The market focused on interest - rate cut expectations. China's policies promoted industrial growth, driving the non - ferrous metals sector. The sustainability of the upward trend was limited. Future operations should be short - term cautiously bullish, and attention should be paid to the resonance between supply - demand fundamentals and the macro - environment [11][12]. - **Variety - Specific Analysis** - **Copper**: Social inventory decreased, supply was expected to decline, and demand was expected to increase. It was expected to stop falling and rebound, with support at 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton and resistance at 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. The strategy was to buy on dips [3][14]. - **Zinc**: Supply increased, demand was weak, but it was oscillatory and strengthening in the short - term. Support was at 21600 - 21800 yuan/ton, resistance was at 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton. Short - term long positions were recommended, and short positions were considered in the medium - term [4][14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: In the aluminum industry chain, different products had different trends in cost, supply, and demand. For example, for aluminum, 09 contract had resistance at 21000 - 21200 yuan/ton and support at 20000 - 20200 yuan/ton; for alumina, 09 contract had resistance at 3700 - 3900 yuan/ton and support at 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton. Strategies such as reducing long positions and buying out - of - the - money put options were recommended [5][16]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals were weak in both supply and demand. It was recommended to wait and see, reduce long positions, with resistance at 270000 - 290000 yuan/ton and support at 250000 - 255000 yuan/ton. Buying out - of - the - money put options was considered [6]. - **Lead**: It followed the sector to rebound and then consolidated. Supply was expected to increase, and demand needed to be further restored. Support was at 16800 - 17000 yuan/ton, resistance was at 17200 - 17400 yuan/ton. Selling out - of - the - money put options on dips was recommended [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel had an overall oversupply situation, with short - term bullish and medium - term bearish trends. Stainless steel had a situation of weak supply and demand, with support at 12300 - 12400 yuan/ton and resistance at 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton [8][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures were provided. For example, copper closed at 79590 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; zinc closed at 22975 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector was presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties such as polysilicon, silver, gold, zinc, etc [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals were provided, such as the Yangtze River spot price of copper was 79930 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the Yangtze River spot average price of 0 zinc was 22830 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [21][23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [24][28][30][35][41][44][49][56]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage Graphs related to arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including the comparison of domestic and foreign price ratios, basis differences, and price differences between different contract months of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [57][61][62][66][69][71]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options Graphs related to options of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [75][78][81].
方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20250724
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 03:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar**: The external raw sugar market continues to decline. Despite a downward adjustment in Brazil's production forecast, strong production increase expectations in the Northern Hemisphere are pressuring prices. In China, imports of syrup premixes in June were still significantly lower year - on - year but increased compared to the previous month. Policy adjustments have shifted imports, but the supply gap is widening. With strong supply and demand of domestic sugar, low inventory pressure on enterprises, and firm spot prices, there is still support for futures prices. However, import pressure is gradually materializing, with 750,000 tons of out - of - quota sugar expected to arrive in July, and large - scale imports of sugarcane in Yunnan this year are also suppressing prices. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are oscillating within a range [3]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp**: The recent sentiment in the domestic commodity market is positive, and the re - inflation expectation has driven low - priced commodities to strengthen. The fundamentals of the pulp market have changed little. Finished paper prices are weakly stable at low levels, and the off - season impact persists, with little short - term improvement in terminal demand. Suppliers' quotes are firm despite weak demand, port inventories are piling up, and the downstream papermaking market is performing poorly in the off - season, resulting in sufficient overall supply and low buyer replenishment enthusiasm. The market should be cautious about the height of the price increase [4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton**: Globally, the new - season cotton market has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking situation, putting pressure on the market. High - yielding cotton from South America and Australia is on the market, the good - quality rate of US cotton has slightly improved, and there are no obvious abnormal weather conditions in the production areas for now. However, there are still differences in the planted area, yield per unit, and abandonment rate in the US, which provide potential support and limit the continuous decline of prices. In the domestic market, there is a game between the expectation of tightened supply and weak downstream consumption, and the short - term upward momentum of futures prices has slowed down [5][6]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple**: Apple futures prices continue to oscillate at high levels. The recent price increase is due to overall positive commodity sentiment, the drive from the jujube market, and its own fundamental support, including low old - season inventory, a slight reduction in new - season production, and a year - on - year increase in the opening price of early - maturing apples. In the later period, low old - season inventory increases the possibility of a supply gap between the old and new seasons, and the high opening price of early - maturing apples further increases the market's expectation of a high opening price, but the extent of the increase is limited, and the actual situation depends on the new - season production, quality, and harvest progress [7]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Jujube**: After a continuous sharp rise in commodities, the sentiment has cooled. This week, short - covering has led to a collective sharp rebound in commodities, and jujube futures prices have followed the upward trend. The jujube futures have been in a wide - range oscillation. The warehouse receipts have slightly flowed out, and the 9 - 1 spread has continued to widen and then oscillated more sharply. The current spot inventory of jujubes is seasonally decreasing, but the overall remaining inventory is still not low. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas during the fruit - setting period from late July to August [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2510**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The main logic is that general consumption restricts the spot price, the new - season initial production estimate is better than before, and the overall futures price is expected to remain within a range. The support range is 7300 - 7350, and the pressure range is 8000 - 8100 [16]. - **Jujube 2601**: Hold long positions. The main logic is that the overall commodity sentiment is strengthening, and jujubes enter the production - forming period in the third quarter. The support range is 10200 - 10400, and the pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [16]. - **Sugar 2509**: Short - term band trading. The main logic is that the external raw sugar continues to decline, the domestic spot price is firm but import pressure is suppressing, and the futures price is in a narrow - range consolidation. The support range is 5740 - 5760, and the pressure range is 5850 - 5870 [16]. - **Pulp 2507**: Temporarily wait and see. The fundamental situation is stable, finished paper prices are weak, overseas prices have been adjusted downward, and the recent domestic re - inflation trading expectation is positive for pulp. The support range is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5400 [16]. - **Cotton 2509**: Reduce long positions at high prices. The main logic is that previous negative factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices are disturbing the market. The support range is 13200 - 13300, and the pressure range is 14400 - 14500 [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of July 16, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas in China was 806,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108,900 tons. As of July 17, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 734,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 90,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 435,200 tons. The estimated national apple output from the bagging survey is 36.5904 million tons, a 2.03% decrease from the previous year. According to Mysteel statistics, the 2025 - 2026 apple production season shows a slight increase trend, with the preliminary estimated national output of 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 season [17]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the mainstream transaction price is stable, storage merchants are willing to sell, and merchants purchase on demand. In the Qixia area, the mainstream transaction price of cold - storage paper - bag Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods is 3.0 - 3.8 yuan per jin. In Shaanxi, the Qinyang variety has been gradually listed, with the price in the Qianxian area similar to last year and the price of good - quality goods in the Tongchuan area higher than last year. In the sales areas, the sales speed is slow, and the price is stable [18]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of July 18, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons or 1.57% compared to the previous week and a 71.08% increase year - on - year. Affected by the rise in the futures price, the spot prices in various sales areas have slightly increased, and there are more downstream price - inquiring customers. However, due to the off - season, terminal demand support is limited, and market transactions are mainly for goods reselling. Attention should be paid to the flower - setting and fruit - setting situations in the new - season production areas [19]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of Wednesday morning, the quoted price of sugar - making enterprises in the Kunming spot market remained at 5860 yuan per ton, the same as the previous day. Some merchants quoted 5830 - 5840 yuan per ton in the Kunming market. The spot market quoted prices of sugar - making enterprises in Guangxi were adjusted down to 6010 - 6030 yuan per ton (sugar factory truck - loading price), and some merchants' quoted prices were adjusted down to 6010 - 6020 yuan per ton (sugar factory truck - loading price) [21]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market Although demand is weak, suppliers' quotes for imported NBSK have been firm in the past week. Port inventories are piling up, and the downstream papermaking market is performing poorly in the off - season, resulting in sufficient overall supply and low buyer replenishment enthusiasm. Arauco announced on July 17 that the order price of its Uruguay Punta Pereira factory's bleached hardwood pulp in July would be reduced by 10 US dollars per ton to 490 US dollars per ton. At the same time, it will resume quoting prices for Chinese customers for its bleached hardwood pulp products from its Chilean pulp mill at 500 US dollars per ton. Brazilian suppliers have informed Chinese buyers that their July bleached hardwood pulp quote is 500 US dollars per ton. The South American bleached hardwood pulp evaluation price is 490 - 500 US dollars per ton, the same as last week [23][25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market As of July 21, 2025, the cotton in Xinjiang has entered the peak flowering and boll - setting period, with a flowering rate of about 89.2%, a month - on - month increase of 5.8 percentage points. The average number of bolls is 5.3, a month - on - month increase of 1.3. In the main cotton - producing areas of Argentina, the weather has been sunny recently, which is beneficial for new - cotton picking, and the progress is expected to reach 75%. The processing work will continue until September and October [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | 7956 | 27 | 0.34% | | Jujube 2509 | 9575 | 90 | 0.95% | | Sugar 2509 | 5834 | 11 | 0.19% | | Pulp 2509 | 5414 | 46 | 0.86% | | Cotton 2509 | 14180 | - 45 | - 0.32% | [26] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan per jin) | 3.90 | 0.00 | - 0.25 | | Jujube (yuan per kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan per ton) | 6050 | 0 | - 410 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5950 | 0 | - 150 | | Cotton (yuan per ton) | 15543 | - 6 | - 163 | [34] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific text content provided, only figure references (Figures 14 - 17). 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 139 | 13 | 42 | Oscillate repeatedly | Wait and see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 1020 | - 1005 | - 655 | Oscillate within a range | Wait and see | | Sugar | 9 - 1 | 178 | 8 | - 71 | Oscillate within a range | Wait and see | [50] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific text content provided, only figure references (Figures 24 - 69). 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8912 | 0 | - 2704 | | Sugar | 21098 | - 261 | 4877 | | Pulp | 255819 | 0 | - 251790 | | Cotton | 9382 | - 54 | - 2728 | [73] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data No specific text content provided, only figure references (Figures 46 - 84).
养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250724
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 03:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Grains and Oils**: The overall situation of grains and oils is complex. For example, the price of soybeans is affected by factors such as domestic auctions and new - season supply. The price of peanuts is influenced by import volume, weather, and planting area. The supply - demand relationship of various oils (soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil) is also different, with different price trends and trading strategies [3][4][5]. - **Feed**: The feed market is also in a state of change. The price of corn is affected by factors such as import volume and regional supply, and the price of soybean meal is related to the price of CBOT soybeans and the progress of purchasing [6][7]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The livestock and poultry market is sensitive to policies. The prices of pigs and eggs are affected by factors such as market sentiment, consumption seasonality, and production costs [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Market Judgment** - **Oilseeds**: For soybeans (both domestic and imported), the supply is expected to increase, and the prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. For peanuts, the new - season production is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be range - bound. For oils, the fundamentals of soybean oil are weak, while palm oil has potential positive factors [12]. - **Proteins**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to rise, mainly due to factors such as the reduction of soybean purchases in the fourth quarter [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: The prices of corn and corn starch are expected to be range - bound, and short - selling orders are recommended to be reduced at low prices [12]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The price of pigs is expected to rebound, and the price of eggs is expected to bottom out. Appropriate trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [12]. - **Commodity Arbitrage** - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, the current recommendation is to wait and see. However, for soybean meal 11 - 1, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for pigs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, a positive spread strategy at low prices is recommended [14]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: Different trading strategies are recommended for different combinations of varieties, such as short - selling operations for 09 soybean oil - palm oil, and long - selling operations for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil [14]. - **Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies** - The report provides the current spot prices, price changes, and basis data of various varieties, which can be used as a reference for spot - futures trading [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Daily Data**: The table shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipment periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and landed duty - paid prices [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes the inventory, operating rates of oil plants, and other data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and peanuts, which reflect the current supply and demand situation of the industry [19]. - **Feed** - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from different countries and different months are provided [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, and operating rates of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Daily Data**: The daily price data of pigs and eggs in different regions are provided, including spot prices, price changes, and other information [21][22]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly key data of pigs and eggs, such as breeding costs, profits, production rates, and inventory, are presented [23][24][25]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock and Poultry**: The charts show the price trends of pigs and eggs, including futures and spot prices, as well as related data such as breeding costs and profits [27][28][31]. - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: It includes the production, export, inventory, and price spread data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the import and domestic inventory data of palm oil [35][37][40]. - **Soybean Oil**: The charts show the soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, and other data in the United States, as well as the domestic soybean oil plant operating rates and inventory [46][47][48]. - **Peanuts**: It includes the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic markets, as well as the peanut processing profit and inventory data [50][51]. - **Feed** - **Corn**: The charts show the inventory, sales progress, import volume, and consumption data of corn, as well as the processing profit of corn alcohol enterprises [54][55][56]. - **Corn Starch**: It includes the operating rates, inventory, and processing profit data of corn starch enterprises [56][58]. - **Rapeseed**: The charts show the spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profit data of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [58][61][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: It includes the weather conditions in the United States, the growth progress of soybeans, and the inventory data of soybeans and soybean meal [65][67][69]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils The historical volatility data of various futures varieties and the trading volume and open interest data of corn options are provided, which can be used as a reference for options trading [71][73][78]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The warehouse receipt data of various futures varieties are provided, which can reflect the market supply and demand situation to a certain extent [75][77][80].
养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250723
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 03:09
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans (domestic), the auction of domestic soybeans was concluded at a premium, supporting the strengthening of the soybean No.1 price. With the new soybeans gradually entering the market, the supply is increasing. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of soybean No.1, focusing on the key pressure level of the 09 contract in the range of 4,250 - 4,300 yuan/ton and the support level in the range of 4,000 - 4,030 yuan/ton [3]. - Regarding peanuts, the expected low carry - over inventory of the old season, along with the impact of the civil unrest in Sudan and the delayed opening of the Port of Port Sudan, has led to a shortage of imported peanuts. The price of peanuts has rebounded from the low - level shock. However, with the alleviation of high - temperature conditions in Henan, the upward momentum of the futures price has weakened. The expected high yield and lower planting costs put pressure on the far - month contracts. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the 10 - contract at high levels and try short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts [3]. - In the case of soybean oil, the price decline is mainly due to the drop in crude oil and international oil prices. With sufficient supply and weak demand, it is recommended to consider closing long positions and observing for now [4]. - For rapeseed oil, although the inventory has declined from the peak but remains high. There is a certain expectation of inventory reduction. It is advisable to reduce long positions and pay attention to Sino - Australian and Sino - Canadian trade relations and the actual implementation of the US biodiesel policy [4]. - Concerning palm oil, there are positive factors in both supply and demand in Indonesia. However, due to the seasonal production increase and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the short - term, it is recommended to partially close long positions [5]. - Regarding soybean meal, the price increase is due to concerns about the far - month supply. The market shows a situation of "weak reality + strong expectation". It is recommended to hold long positions in the M2511 contract [5]. - For corn and corn starch, the prices are in a range - bound state. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7]. - In the case of live pigs, the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold long positions in the 09 contract and buy the 2511 contract at low levels [8]. - Regarding eggs, the price has rebounded. It is recommended to avoid short - selling blindly, pay attention to the positive spread between the 9 - 1 contracts, and aggressive investors can buy the 09 contract at low levels [8][9]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - The market logic of soybeans (domestic) includes premium - priced auctions and the gradual increase in supply. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [3][12]. - For peanuts, the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and try short positions in the far - month contracts [3][12]. - Soybean oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to close long positions [4][12]. - Rapeseed oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce long positions [4][12]. - Palm oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to partially close long positions [5][12]. - Soybean meal's 11 - contract is expected to rise. It is recommended to hold long positions [5][12]. - Rapeseed meal's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to hold long positions [6][12]. - Corn's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7][12]. - Corn starch's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7][12]. - Live pigs' 09 contract is expected to rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions [8][12]. - Eggs' 09 contract is expected to find the bottom through fluctuations. It is recommended to buy at low levels [8][9][12]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For cross - period arbitrage, it is recommended to observe for most varieties such as soybeans, peanuts, and oils. However, a positive spread strategy is recommended for the 11 - 1 contract of soybean meal, and a positive spread strategy at low levels is recommended for live pigs and eggs [13][14]. - For cross - variety arbitrage, a bearish operation is recommended for the 09 soybean oil - palm oil spread, a bullish operation for the 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, and it is recommended to observe for other spreads [14]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various commodities such as soybeans, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [15]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report presents the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods, including arrival premiums, CBOT futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the inventory of related products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil [19][20]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [20]. - **Weekly Data**: The data on the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises are presented [20]. 3. Livestock - The daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and inventory data, are provided [21][23][24]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: Charts of the closing prices of the main contracts, spot prices, and related prices of live pigs and eggs are presented [26][27][28] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Charts related to the production, export, inventory, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts are provided [35][36][38] - **Feed**: Charts of the inventory, consumption, and processing profits of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal are presented [53][54][56] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils - Charts of the trading volume, open interest, and volatility of corn options, as well as historical and implied volatility, are provided [74] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - Charts of the warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs are provided [76][77][78]