Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The sugar market is in a state of low valuation and low drive, with sufficient supply. The short - term price increase is driven by pre - holiday stocking and differences in sugar production rates, but there is insufficient momentum for continued growth. It is not recommended to chase high prices for the SR2605 contract [2]. - The pulp market is under pressure due to the off - season of downstream products, but is supported by the rising cost of warehouse receipts. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is advisable to consider long - position allocation near 5200 [2][5]. - The double - offset paper market has limited upward space for futures prices. The cost - driven force is weakening, and short - term short - selling operations are recommended [6][8]. - The cotton market is expected to have a slow upward trend in the center of gravity. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [9]. - The apple market's major support logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy on dips for the 2605 contract [10]. - For the jujube market, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract, and investors can consider buying protective put options for long positions. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread strategy of short 2605 and long 2609 [12]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [20]. - **Jujube 2605**: Buy on dips in the short - term. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2605**: Do not chase high prices. The support range is 5070 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5330 [20]. - **Pulp 2605**: Allocate long positions with a light position. The support range is 5200 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5450 - 5500 [20]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Operate within a range. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [20]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [20]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 29, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 601,010 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 313,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 610,000 tons [21]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The price of apples in the producing areas remained stable this week. The transaction volume increased during the peak pre - holiday stocking period, and the cold - storage packaging and shipping speeds increased. The sales situation in the sales areas was fair, and the mainstream price remained stable [21][23]. - **Jujube Market**: As of January 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 13,143 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 925 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.99%. The pre - holiday sales speed is expected to be slower than last year, and the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end [24]. - **Sugar Market**: As of the week of January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 54, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7826 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. India's domestic sugar sales quota for February 2026 is 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January [26]. - **Pulp Market**: The Chinese pulp market continued to weaken due to the decline in futures prices and the weakening demand for key resale varieties. The spot price of imported NBSK also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remained stable [28]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week this Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased, and the start - up load rate was 57.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points, with the increase rate narrowing by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [29]. - **Cotton Market**: In November 2025, the retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories in the United States were $27.493 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.54% and a month - on - month increase of 0.88%. The new - season planting area of U.S. cotton is expected to be about 10 million acres, about 9% higher than the latest USDA forecast [31]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - **Apple 2605**: The closing price was 9642, with a daily increase of 110 and a daily increase rate of 1.15%. - **Jujube 2605**: The closing price was 8895, with a daily increase of 65 and a daily increase rate of 0.74%. - **Sugar 2605**: The closing price was 5257, with a daily increase of 70 and a daily increase rate of 1.35%. - **Pulp 2605**: The closing price was 5388, with a daily increase of 14 and a daily increase rate of 0.26%. - **Cotton 2605**: The closing price was 14910, with a daily decrease of 30 and a daily decrease rate of 0.20% [31]. - **Spot Market Review** - **Apple**: The spot price was 4.45 yuan per jin, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. - **Jujube**: The spot price was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. - **Sugar**: The spot price was 5320 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 590 yuan. - **Pulp**: The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5400 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 1200 yuan. - **Double - offset Paper**: The spot price of Taiyang Tianyang in Tianjin was 4350 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan. - **Cotton**: The spot price was 16103 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1377 yuan [38]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary content provided, only some related figures are mentioned. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple 5 - 10**: The spread was 1112, a month - on - month decrease of 15 and a year - on - year increase of 1622. It is expected to be oscillating and strengthening, and it is recommended to go long on dips. - **Jujube 5 - 9**: The spread was - 205, a month - on - month decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 175. It is recommended to wait and see. - **Sugar 5 - 9**: The spread was - 12, a month - on - month decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 145. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see. - **Cotton 5 - 9**: The spread was - 90, a month - on - month decrease of 20 and a year - on - year increase of 60. It is expected to be oscillating and weakening, and it is recommended to go short on highs [59]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summary content provided, only some related figures are mentioned. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Apple**: The number of warehouse receipts was 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - **Jujube**: The number of warehouse receipts was 3313, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 703. - **Sugar**: The number of warehouse receipts was 14119, a month - on - month increase of 404 and a year - on - year decrease of 10009. - **Pulp**: The number of warehouse receipts was 141442, a month - on - month increase of 948 and a year - on - year decrease of 197286. - **Cotton**: The number of warehouse receipts was 10243, a month - on - month increase of 34 and a year - on - year increase of 3530 [84]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary content provided, only some related figures are mentioned.

更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月28日星期三 期货研究院 天然橡胶日度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】周三化工再度出现领涨，合成橡胶带动天胶价格走强 ，天胶增仓窄幅震荡，日内低开高走，美伊地缘问题增加原油价格 波动。2026年初流动性扩散商品市场整体情绪亢奋，工业品指数出 现强势上涨，央行工作会议强调，把促进经济高质量发展物价合理 回升作为货币政策的重要考量，受此提振，股市及商品市场延续强 势上涨。橡胶当前供需基本面无明显利多题材，宏观是当前市场的 核心驱动。期价调整后橡胶现货价格跟跌，上海全乳胶周均价156 80元/吨，周环比-100；青岛市场20号泰标周均价1910美元/吨，- 1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月28日星期三 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 豆油：周三，豆油主力05合约午后收于8326（日变动68或0.82% ）。日内豆油价格上涨，美国生柴政策预期向好，CBOT豆油价格 走强。棕榈油产地减产降库也带动马棕油盘面走高。国际市场油脂 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector** - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price remains in a low - level narrow - range fluctuation. With an oversupply of international sugar and a large non - commercial net short position in sugar, and sufficient domestic sugar supply, the Zhengzhou sugar futures' fundamentals are loose. It is recommended to short on rebounds for the SR2605 contract [3]. - **Pulp**: Although the supply pressure eases, the domestic finished paper is in the off - season, and paper mills' restocking motivation is weak. The pulp price is under pressure but supported by the rising cost of warehouse receipts. It is suggested to go long on the 2605 contract near 5200 [3][4]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The double - offset paper spot is stable, and the upward space of futures is limited. It is advisable to operate in the short - term with a short - bias and hold short positions with appropriate reductions [5][6][7]. - **Cotton**: Affected by the relatively loose global and US cotton supply and tariff conflicts, the external cotton price may continue to bottom out. The domestic cotton price may slowly move up in the medium - term. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [8]. - **Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector** - **Apple**: During the Spring Festival stocking period, the market performance is average. The supply - side support still exists, but the marginal driving force decreases. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2605 contract [9]. - **Jujube**: The jujube futures price is in a narrow - range shock. The spot supply and demand are both strong, and the futures - spot price difference contradiction is alleviated. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract, and option strategies can also be considered [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Recommend reducing long positions. The support from the decline in new - season output, good - fruit rate, and inventory year - on - year still exists, but the suppression of insufficient consumption growth is increasing. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [19]. - **Jujube 2605**: Recommend short - term long positions on dips. The expectation of production reduction may gradually appear in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [19]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2605**: Recommend shorting on rebounds. The international and domestic sugar supplies are relatively sufficient. The support range is 5070 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5270 - 5300 [19]. - **Pulp 2605**: Recommend light - position long positions. The downstream finished paper is in the off - season, and the paper mills' restocking willingness is weak, but the rising cost of warehouse receipts may support the pulp price. The support range is 5200 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5450 - 5500 [19]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Recommend range - bound operations. The spot market is stable, and the basis expansion provides phased support for the futures price. However, the rising height is still not optimistic. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [19]. - **Cotton 2605**: Recommend holding long positions cautiously. The far - end bullish expectation still exists, but the external price is bottoming out, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 21, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 6.8278 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 218,800 tons. As of January 22, 2026, it was 6.3232 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 232,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 296,900 tons [20]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples is stable, and the packaging volume in cold storage is acceptable. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the packaging volume in cold storage has increased significantly. In the sales area, the market arrivals are increasing, and the sales are acceptable [20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market supply and demand are expected to enter a peak period with the approaching of the Lunar New Year [22]. - **Sugar Market**: India's February 2026 domestic sugar sales quota is 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January. Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January. As of January 26, 2026, the estimated cost of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3997 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5077 yuan/ton. As of January 21, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased, and the waiting sugar volume increased by 118,700 tons week - on - week [24]. - **Pulp Market**: Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand for key resale varieties, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The price of imported NBSK has declined, but the prices of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remain stable [28]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The operating load rate was 57.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the increase rate also narrowed [29]. - **Cotton Market**: Bangladesh plans to establish a free - trade zone in Chittagong. As of January 23, the cotton sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 48%, an increase of 19 percentage points from the previous week and higher than the same period last year [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: On the day, the closing price of Apple 2605 was 9532, up 28 (0.29%); Jujube 2605 was 8830, up 10 (0.11%); Sugar 2605 was 5187, up 19 (0.37%); Pulp 2605 was 5374, up 32 (0.60%); Cotton 2605 was 14940, up 375 (2.57%) [31]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.45 yuan year - on - year; jujubes were 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year; sugar was 5270 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 640 yuan year - on - year; pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 1200 yuan year - on - year; double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4350 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 600 yuan year - on - year; cotton was 15933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan month - on - month and up 1207 yuan year - on - year [35]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation The report provides relevant basis data and charts for apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple**: The 5 - 10 spread is 1112, a week - on - week decrease of 15 and a year - on - year increase of 1622. It is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long on dips [55]. - **Jujube**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 200, a week - on - week increase of 25 and a year - on - year increase of 180. It is recommended to wait and see [55]. - **Sugar**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 11, a week - on - week increase of 6 and a year - on - year decrease of 144. It is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [55]. - **Cotton**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 70, a week - on - week increase of 75 and a year - on - year increase of 80. It is expected to be volatile and bearish, and it is recommended to short on rallies [55]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation The report provides charts of the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes for apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Jujubes have 3313 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month decrease of 12 and a year - on - year decrease of 703. - Sugar has 13715 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 10413. - Pulp has 140494 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 198234. - Cotton has 10209 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month increase of 4 and a year - on - year increase of 3496 [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data The report provides option - related data charts for apples, sugar, and cotton, including trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text.

摘要 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月28日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 铜： 美元指数隔夜大跌，创出近4年以来新低，特朗普对于美元的表态 进一步加剧了市场对美元未来弱势的担忧，另外近期日元对美元的 大幅走强也使得美元指数被动承压，黄金受此影响再创新高，金铜 比继续走高，有望对铜价形成提振。近期利空频传叠加需求端季节 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 期货研究院 生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 周二，郑糖主力合约偏弱调整，午后收于5168元/吨。广西南宁白 糖报价527 ...

投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月26日星期一 有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 金银价格持续创历史新高，近期出现加速上行，铜价开始补涨，但 受制于短期市场风险偏好下降，以及基本面阶段性转弱，反弹持续 性不足。美国经济数据显示出消费韧性，白银价格涨幅再度大于黄 金，自身商品属性再度对价格形成上行驱动，利多金属价格。近期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soft commodity sector, Zheng sugar's fundamentals are loose, and a sell - on - rally operation is considered for the main 05 contract; the pulp supply pressure eases, but the domestic finished paper is in the off - season, so the operation is changed from a single - sided short allocation to an interval operation; the upward space of double - offset paper futures is expected to be limited, and a short - term short operation is recommended; the cotton price may be adjusted in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [3][4][5][6][8][9]. - For the fresh fruit and vegetable sector, the apple price may enter the support range, and a long - thinking operation is recommended; for jujubes, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract, and for long positions, buy protective put options [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Interval | Pressure Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Reduce long positions | Support from lower new - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak value year - on - year still exists, but the suppression of insufficient consumption increment drive also increases, and the near - month contract falls in the short term [19]. | 8800 - 8900 | 11000 - 11500 | | Jujube 2605 | Buy on dips in the short term | The expectation of production reduction may gradually appear in the far - month, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline [19]. | 8700 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 | | Sugar 2605 | Sell on rallies | The international sugar supply is sufficient, and it is the peak season for domestic sugar supply, with overall sufficient supply [19]. | 5070 - 5100 | 5270 - 5300 | | Pulp 2605 | Short in the interval | There are still long - term benefits from supply and the increase in warehouse - receipt cost, but the recent downstream performance is average, which may put some pressure on the market [19]. | 5200 - 5300 | 5550 - 5600 | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Interval operation | The spot market is stable, and the basis widening provides phased support for the market. Later, the publishing orders may weaken, and it is still difficult to be optimistic about the upward height under the low capacity utilization rate [19]. | 4000 - 4100 | 4300 - 4350 | | Cotton 2605 | Reduce long positions | The long - term bullish expectation still exists, and the medium - term support is still there, but the foreign - market price is in a bottom - searching trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price, and the futures price enters a volatile and repeated stage in the short term [19]. | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 | 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 21, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas in China was 6.8278 million tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from the previous week. As of January 22, 2026, the inventory was 6.3232 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 232,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 296,900 tons [20]. - **Spot Market**: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong is stable, and the packaging willingness of merchants in cold storage is okay. The price in Shaanxi is also stable, and the cold - storage packaging and shipment volume have increased recently. The arrival of goods in the sales area is increasing, and the sales are stable [20][21][22]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market supply and demand are expected to enter a peak season with the approaching of the Lunar New Year [23]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of the week of January 21, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 51, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7816 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 118,700 tons and an increase of 7.13%. From the second half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased year - on - year. The ISMA expects the sugar consumption in India in the 2025/26 crushing season to rise slightly to 28.5 million tons [25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The demand in the Chinese pulp market has slowed down significantly, and the futures market's shock has made traders and investors cautious. The price of the main 2026 May BSK futures contract has fallen, and the weakness has spread to the spot market. Traders expect prices to fall further and have raised the forward resale quotes [28]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% from last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [29]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market In November, India's cotton imports were about 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.8% and a year - on - year increase of 94.2%. As of January 15, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 93,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21%, and the weekly shipment volume was 42,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20% [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9466 | - 69 | - 0.72% | | Jujube 2605 | 8760 | - 40 | - 0.45% | | Sugar 2605 | 5172 | - 8 | - 0.15% | | Pulp 2605 | 5374 | - 24 | - 0.44% | | Cotton 2605 | 14650 | - 45 | - 0.31% | 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5270 | - 10 | - 640 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5400 | 0 | - 1150 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15995 | 125 | 1288 | 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided, only relevant figures are mentioned, such as the basis of Apple May contract, Jujube main contract, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Prediction | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1191 | - 6 | 1746 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 240 | 0 | 150 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 17 | - 2 | - 154 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 155 | 10 | 0 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs | 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning No specific data summary provided, only relevant figures about the top 20 long - position, short - position, and trading - volume rankings of each variety are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse - receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse - receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 3325 | 27 | - 679 | | Sugar | 13715 | - 30 | - 10413 | | Pulp | 139554 | 0 | - 197742 | | Cotton | 10144 | 172 | 3428 | 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided, only relevant figures about the trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton options are mentioned.

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity sector is facing different market conditions. The sugar market has sufficient global supply, and the domestic sugar supply is also abundant. The pulp market has relatively stable prices, but the overall supply is not tight, and the demand from downstream paper mills is weak. The double - offset paper market has cost - support weakening and faces demand pressure. In the fresh fruit and vegetable sector, the apple market has strong mid - line supply support but weak marginal drivers, and the jujube market is entering the consumption peak season with inventory starting to decline [3][5][7]. - Different trading strategies are recommended for each variety. For example, for sugar, consider short - selling on rebounds; for pulp, switch from one - sided short - allocation to range trading; for double - offset paper, reduce long positions on high prices and try short - allocation; for apples, adopt a long - thinking strategy; for jujubes, aggressive investors can hold reverse spreads or long positions with protective put options [4][5][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - For fresh fruit and vegetable futures, recommend holding long positions in Apple 2605 cautiously with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. For Jujube 2605, recommend reducing short positions with a support range of 8900 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9300 - 9700 [16]. - For soft commodity futures, recommend temporarily observing Sugar 2605 with a support range of 5070 - 5100 and a pressure range of 5270 - 5300. For Pulp 2605, recommend range trading with a support range of 5200 - 5300 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5600. For Double - offset Paper 2605, recommend trying short - selling on high prices with a support range of 4000 - 4050 and a pressure range of 4250 - 4300 [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9535, down 6 points or 0.06% for the week; Jujube 2605 closed at 8800, down 75 points or 0.85% for the week; Sugar 2605 closed at 5180, down 78 points or 1.48% for the week; Pulp 2605 closed at 5398, up 36 points or 0.67% for the week; Double - offset Paper 2602 closed at 4226, up 178 points or 4.40% for the week [17]. 3.2.2 Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples is 4.70 yuan per jin, with no change from the previous period and an increase of 0.45 yuan year - on - year. The spot price of jujubes is 9.40 yuan per kilogram, down 0.10 yuan from the previous period and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year. The spot price of sugar is 5280 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous period and down 630 yuan year - on - year. The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) is 5400 yuan, with no change from the previous period and down 1150 yuan year - on - year [23]. 3.3 Third Part: Sector Basis Situation The report provides basis data charts for apple, jujube, sugar, and pulp, including Apple 5 - month basis, Jujube main - continuous basis, Sugar main - continuous basis, and Pulp main - continuous basis, but no specific data analysis is given [28][31][33][34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation The report provides inter - monthly spread charts for apple, jujube, and sugar, such as Apple 5 - 10 spread, Apple 1 - 5 spread, Jujube 1/5 spread, Jujube 5/9 spread, Sugar 5 - 9 spread, and Sugar 9 - 1 spread, but no specific data analysis is given [37][39][41]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no change from the previous period and no change year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 3298, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 706 year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 13745, a decrease of 11 from the previous period and a decrease of 10383 year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 139554, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 197742 year - on - year [42]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - related Data 3.6.1 Option Strategy Recommendations - For Apple 2605, recommend selling out - of - the - money put options as the bullish factors have been partially realized and the price increase has slowed down. - For Jujube 2605, recommend selling deep out - of - the - money call options as new jujubes are concentrated on the market and the spot inventory is high. - For Sugar 2605, recommend considering selling both call and put options as there are differences in China's sugar production and the international market has oversupply [42]. 3.6.2 Apple Option Data The report provides charts of apple option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio of open interest and trading volume, historical volatility, etc., but no specific data analysis is given [44]. 3.6.3 Sugar Option Data The report provides charts of sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio of trading volume and open interest, historical volatility, implied volatility, etc., but no specific data analysis is given [45][46]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apple - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas**: The report provides charts of minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, which are major apple - producing areas, but no specific data analysis is given [49][50]. - **Export Situation**: The report provides a chart of the monthly apple export volume, but no specific data analysis is given [53]. - **Inventory Situation**: The report provides charts of national apple inventory, weekly apple inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific data analysis is given [53][55]. 3.7.2 Jujube The report provides charts of weekly jujube trading volume in Henan and Hebei, and daily arrival volume of jujubes at Guangdong Ruyifang Market, but no specific data analysis is given [57]. 3.7.3 Sugar The report provides charts of national sugar industrial inventory (newly added), monthly sugar import volume, and sugar spot - futures difference, but no specific data analysis is given [59][60][62]. 3.7.4 Pulp The report provides charts of domestic 4 - port pulp inventory, global pulp producer inventory days, weekly production volume of various types of paper, and import volume of broad - leaf and coniferous pulp, but no specific data analysis is given [64][65][74]. 3.7.5 Double - offset Paper The report provides charts of double - offset paper capacity utilization rate, weekly production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption volume, but no specific data analysis is given [76][79].

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | 从业资格证号： F03095512 投资咨询证号： Z0020712 联系方式： 18001936153 投资咨询证号： Z0017427 作者： 王亮亮 从业资格证号： F03096306 联系方式： 010-68578697 作者： 辛旋 从业资格证号： F3064981 投资咨询证号： Z0016876 联系方式： -- 作者： 汤冰华 从业资格证号： F3038544 投资咨询证号： Z0015153 联系方式： 010-68518793 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月21日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 周三，郑糖主力合约下跌，午后收跌于5144元/吨。广西南宁白糖 报价5280元/吨，环比下降20元/吨。市场逻辑与观点暂无明显变化 。尽管巴西糖季节性供应减少，但印度糖丰产 ...