期货研究院 碳酸锂期货日报 Lithium Carbonate Futures Daily Report 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | 下游需求淡季不淡带动碳酸锂价格连创新高，随着春节临近需求不 确定性增加；近两日仓单显著攀升，产业链上下游企业宜根据自身 风险管理需求，择机把握14万以上的冲高卖出套保机会。主力合约 下方支撑98000-100000，上方压力140000-150000。。 【氢氧化锂】 氢氧化锂价格较上周持续上行。锂盐厂及持货商挺价意愿依然较强 ，报价跟随碳酸锂价格保持高位。需求端来看，部分三元材料厂在 长协之外有小幅刚性采购需求，但受到长协签订进度影响，高位接 货意愿有限。短期预计氢氧化锂价格在碳酸锂期货及锂矿成本支撑 下，将延续高位态势。 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月08日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 【碳酸锂】 现货方面，周三SMM电池级碳酸锂 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The global sugar market remains in a state of oversupply, with India and Thailand experiencing a sugar surplus. In the domestic market, there are concerns about a decline in sugar production in Guangxi, leading to a slight recovery in domestic sugar prices. The SR2605 contract's support level is around 5000 - 5030, and the pressure level is around 5300 - 5330 [2]. - **Pulp**: Terminal users have accepted the price increases led by suppliers, causing both softwood and hardwood pulp prices to rise. The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the cost of new warehouse receipts is increasing, which may drive up the bottom of the market. However, the global market for bleached softwood kraft pulp is not tight, and the inventory of domestic and European ports is relatively high. The profitability of paper mills is low, and their ability to absorb high - priced pulp may be limited. In the short term, prices will operate in a high - range [2]. - **Double - offset Paper**: After the New Year's Day holiday, the spot market for double - offset paper remained stable. The paper mill's inventory is at a high level, and the improvement in demand alone is not enough to significantly change the supply - demand situation. The futures price may follow the basis, and the upward space may be limited [6]. - **Cotton**: The external market has limited drivers, and the futures price is in the process of bottom - building. In the domestic market, there is an expectation of tight supply at the end of the year, a potential reduction in Xinjiang's cotton production, and support from related substitutes. The 05 contract is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long term [9]. - **Apples**: The apple 2605 contract is supported by low cold - storage inventory, an unsatisfactory high - quality fruit rate, and rising acquisition prices. However, it also faces the contradiction between supply decline and the off - season of consumption, and is expected to remain in a high - range [10]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube market has shifted from a state of high premium to a state of discount relative to the spot market, and the contradiction between futures and spot prices has been alleviated. The supply is gradually becoming more abundant, and the expectation of a production reduction has decreased [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For the apple 2605 contract, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 10000 - 10200. For the jujube 2605 contract, it is recommended to buy on dips, with a support range of 8900 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For the sugar 2605 contract, it is recommended to hold short - term long positions lightly, with a support range of 5180 - 5200 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5400. For the pulp 2605 contract, it is recommended to take a long - biased approach within the range, with a support range of 5300 - 5400 and a pressure range of 5600 - 5800. For the double - offset paper 2605 contract, it is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 3900 - 4000 and a pressure range of 4200 - 4300. For the cotton 2605 contract, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 702,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons. The prices in the Shandong and Shaanxi production areas remained stable, and the shipment in the sales areas was stable [21][22][23]. - **Jujube Market**: As of the week before New Year's Day, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,898 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 37.17%. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market supply is gradually increasing. The overall sales in the sales areas are stable [24]. - **Sugar Market**: As of December 31, 2025, Indian sugar mills had crushed 133.921 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 24%. The sugar production reached 11.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase. In Thailand, from the 2025/26 sugar - making season to December 27, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 14.0733 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.71%. In China, as of January 7, 2026, 41 sugar mills in Yunnan had started crushing, 3 more than the same period last year. All 19 sugar mills in Guangdong had started crushing [27][28]. - **Pulp Market**: In December, the global pulp shipment volume continued to decline year - on - year and month - on - month, and the shipment volume to China decreased more than the global average. The supply pressure of pulp is gradually alleviating. Suzano, APRIL, and Eldorado have raised the prices of BHK pulp [31]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared to last Thursday, and the growth rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand is still weak, and the overall inventory pressure has increased. The operating rate is 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points [32]. - **Cotton Market**: In November 2025, Turkey imported 57,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 32.2% and a year - on - year increase of 23.6%. As of January 3, 2026, the cotton planting in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 31.2% completed. As of January 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.6675 million tons, accounting for 85.8% of the annual estimated output [33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract was 9583, a daily decrease of 31 or 0.32%. The closing price of the jujube 2605 contract was 9150, a daily increase of 175 or 1.95%. The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5281, a daily increase of 22 or 0.42%. The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5596, a daily decrease of 16 or 0.29%. The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15035, a daily increase of 180 or 1.21% [34]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan per catty, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. The spot price of sugar was 5350 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 670 yuan. The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5580 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 950 yuan. The spot price of double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 500 yuan. The spot price of cotton was 15784 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 73 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1154 yuan [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant figures are mentioned [50]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - The 5 - 10 spread of apples is 1109, with a month - on - month increase of 26 and a year - on - year increase of 1487. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips. - The 9 - 1 spread of jujubes is 90, with a month - on - month increase of 25 and a year - on - year decrease of 630. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see. - The 1 - 5 spread of sugar is 26, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 48. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. - The 5 - 9 spread of cotton is - 190, a month - on - month decrease of 5 and a year - on - year decrease of 40. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [58]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant figures are mentioned [63]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 2263, a month - on - month increase of 158 and a year - on - year decrease of 258. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 6005, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 8358. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 135506, a month - on - month increase of 4452 and a year - on - year decrease of 203230. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 7049, a month - on - month increase of 225 and a year - on - year increase of 2971 [87]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data analysis provided, only relevant figures are mentioned [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific investment suggestions for each metal variety: - Copper: Buy on dips, with a recommended strength of +1 [13] - Zinc: Buy on dips, with a recommended strength of +1 [15] - Aluminum Industry Chain: Buy on dips, with a recommended strength of +0.5/-0.5/+0.5 [15] - Tin: Buy on dips, with a recommended strength of +0.5 [15] - Lead: Sell both call and put options, with a recommended strength of +0.5 [16] - Nickel: Consider covered call options on rallies, with a recommended strength of +1 [16] - Stainless Steel: Reduce positions on rallies, with a recommended strength of +1 [16] Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metal market is generally in a strong position, with low - priced metals showing strong supplementary gains after the general increase. The overall market is supported by factors such as a relatively loose monetary environment, AI technological development, increased emphasis on the supply chain of critical minerals, and enhanced uncertainty in resource supply due to geopolitical disturbances [11]. - In the short term, the market should be cautious about the possible disturbances caused by phased profit - taking of funds. Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies should be formulated according to their characteristics [11]. Summary of Each Section Part One: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: In 2026, the non - ferrous metal market is supported by a loose monetary environment, AI development, increased emphasis on critical mineral supply chains, and geopolitical disturbances. China's December manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, while the US December ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly shrank to the lowest level since 2024 [11]. - **Geopolitical Disturbance**: The US military action against Venezuela and discussions about obtaining Greenland have raised concerns about resource supply stability. There are also trade - related policies between China and Japan, and differences within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [12]. - **Investment Strategies**: Different strategies are proposed for each metal variety, considering factors such as supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment [13][15][16] Part Two: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review - The table shows the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part Three: Non - ferrous Metal Position Analysis - The table presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector, including the price change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for each variety [19]. Part Four: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market - The table shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, cast aluminum alloy, etc. [20] Part Five: Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain - For each metal (copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, stainless steel), relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc. [21][23][27][34][43][47][53] Part Six: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage - For each metal, relevant arbitrage charts are provided, such as the ratio of domestic to international prices, basis, and spreads between different contracts [57][58][61][64][68][70] Part Seven: Non - ferrous Metal Options - For each metal, relevant option charts are provided, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest ratio [74][76][79]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soft Commodities** - **Sugar**: Global sugar is in a supply - surplus situation, but concerns about a decline in Guangxi sugar production in China have led to a slight recovery in domestic sugar prices. It's recommended to exit short positions in Zhengzhou sugar futures and wait and see [3]. - **Pulp**: The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, but the high inventory and weak paper mill profits limit the upward trend. The price is expected to run in a high - level range in the short term [3]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable. The upward space of the futures price is limited due to the narrowing basis and weakening cost drive [4]. - **Cotton**: Globally and in the US, cotton supply is expected to be abundant, but in China, there are expectations of tight supply at the end of the year, a reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting, and support from substitutes. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move up [6]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nuts** - **Apple**: The 05 contract of apples is supported by low cold - storage inventory, poor fruit quality, and high acquisition prices. However, concerns about consumption limit the upward trend. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [7]. - **Jujube**: The supply of jujubes is gradually becoming more abundant, and the futures price has changed from a premium to a discount to the spot price. It's recommended to exit short positions below 9000 points and consider hedging strategies [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | New - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak inventory are lower than before, but the lack of consumption growth restricts the upward trend. It may fluctuate strongly in the short - term within the range | 8800 - 8900 | 10000 - 10200 | | Jujube 2605 | Buy on dips in the short - term | The expectation of reduced production may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts | 8900 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 | | Sugar 2605 | Go long with a light position and short - term | International sugar supply is sufficient, and the market is worried about a decline in China's sugar production this season, weakening short - seller confidence | 5000 - 5030 | 5300 - 5330 | | Pulp 2605 | Go long within the range | The potential delivery pressure increases as the futures price rises above the spot price. There is support for the downward movement | 5300 - 5400 | 5600 - 5800 | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Wait and see for now | Raw material price fluctuations affect double - offset paper prices from the cost side, and the futures price may run within a range | 3900 - 4000 | 4200 - 4300 | | Cotton 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | The overseas market is at a low level, and the domestic market has positive expectations. There is strong long - term bullish sentiment, and the price is expected to move up | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 | [17] Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 7.021 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons [18]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Shandong and Shaanxi are stable. The overall shipment has slightly increased, and the prices in the sales areas are stable [18][19][20]. - **Jujube Market**: Before the New Year's Day, the inventory of 36 sample points decreased. The acquisition in Xinjiang is approaching the end, and the supply of off - grade products has increased significantly. The overall sales in the sales areas are stable [21]. - **Sugar Market**: As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production increased year - on - year. Thailand's sugar production decreased from January to December 27, 2025/26, and Guangdong's sugar production also decreased [24]. - **Pulp Market**: As of December 31, the pulp price was stable. Some companies raised the price of BHK, and the supply tightened [27]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days increased, the social demand was weak, and the start - up rate increased slightly [28]. - **Cotton Market**: Egypt's cotton export contracts and shipments increased significantly, and Pakistan's new - season seed cotton listing volume decreased slightly year - on - year [29]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9614 | 67 | 0.70% | | Jujube 2605 | 8975 | 20 | 0.22% | | Sugar 2605 | 5259 | 2 | 0.04% | | Pulp 2605 | 5612 | 82 | 1.48% | | Cotton 2605 | 14855 | 200 | 1.36% | [30] - **Spot Market**: | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5340 | 10 | - 720 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5580 | 0 | - 950 | | Double - offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15711 | 96 | 1037 | [36] Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [46][47][48][49][50][51][52]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1026 | - 30 | 1313 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | 25 | - 45 | - 600 | Oscillate within a range | Wait and see | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 26 | 5 | - 44 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 185 | 5 | - 15 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on rallies | [53] Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [58][59][60][61][63][64][65][66][68][69][71][73][75][77][78][80][81][82]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 2105 | 3 | - 416 | | Sugar | 6005 | 0 | - 7024 | | Pulp | 131054 | 15478 | - 207984 | | Cotton | 6824 | 706 | 2818 | [82] Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [84][85][86][88][89][90][91][92][94][95][96].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, non-ferrous metals generally rose, with copper, aluminum, and aluminum alloys showing strength, while zinc, tin, etc. followed the upward trend, and nickel and lead were consolidating. The macro environment is positive, and the supply side of non-ferrous metals is strongly supported. Valuation-lagging varieties also showed a rotational recovery in the strong sector. The report suggests paying attention to whether there will be fluctuations and differentiation due to fundamental differences after the positive start. [12][13] - The report provides specific operation suggestions and market outlooks for various non-ferrous metal varieties, including copper, zinc, aluminum, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel. [14][15][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Non-ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non-ferrous metal sector had a positive start after the holiday, and it is expected that in 2026, factors such as a relatively loose monetary environment, the development direction of AI technology, increased attention to the critical mineral supply chain, and the rise of resource nationalism in resource-rich countries will continue to support non-ferrous metals. China's December official manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI both returned to the expansion range, and the US economic data also showed certain positive signs. [12] - **Operation Suggestions for Each Variety**: - **Copper**: Try to gradually buy on dips. The short-term upper pressure range is around 105,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is around 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying deep out-of-the-money long-term call options. [3][14] - **Zinc**: It is expected to continue the relatively strong consolidation pattern. The upper pressure is around 23,800 - 24,000, and the short-term lower support is around 22,800 - 23,000. Hold long positions and wait and see. [4][15] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: - **Aluminum**: Temporarily wait and see to prevent a callback after a short-term over - rise. The upper pressure range is 24,000 - 24,500, and the lower support range is 22,000 - 22,300. Buy out-of-the-money put options for protection. - **Alumina**: Sell on rallies. The upper pressure range is 2,800 - 3,000, and the lower support range is 2,000 - 2,200. Buy out-of-the-money call options for protection. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: Temporarily wait and see. The upper pressure range is 23,000 - 23,500, and the lower support range is 21,000 - 21,500. Buy out-of-the-money put options for protection. [5][15] - **Tin**: Adopt a bullish mindset. Pay attention to the influence of other non-ferrous metal varieties, as well as the situation of the ore end and policy regulation. The upper pressure range is 350,000 - 355,000, and the lower support range is 310,000 - 320,000. Consider buying out-of-the-money put options for protection. [6][7][15] - **Lead**: It is expected to continue the consolidation pattern after the holiday. The short-term lower support is around 16,700 - 16,800, and the upper resistance is around 17,500 - 17,700. Consider the double - selling strategy. [8][16] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: - **Nickel**: It may continue the relatively strong fluctuation after the holiday. The upper resistance is around 135,000 - 136,000 yuan, and the lower support is around 126,000 - 128,000 yuan. Buy on dips. - **Stainless Steel**: It is currently consolidating. The lower support is around 12,800 - 13,000, and the upper resistance is around 13,400 - 13,600. Wait and see until the Indonesian policy becomes clear. [9][16] Second Part: Non-ferrous Metal Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non-ferrous metal futures are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, aluminum oxide, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy. For example, the closing price of copper futures was 101,350, with a price increase of 3.17%. [17][18] Third Part: Non-ferrous Metal Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non-ferrous metal sector is presented, including the price change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, changes in net long and net short positions, influencing factors, and the sector for each variety. For example, for Shanghai Nickel (NI2602), the price change was 2.44%, with a strong short position by the main force, a net long - short position difference of - 19,690, an increase of 568 in net long positions, a decrease of 2,947 in net short positions, and the influencing factor was the reduction of short positions by the main force. [20] Fourth Part: Non-ferrous Metal Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non-ferrous metals are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, aluminum oxide, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price was 100,750 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.33%. [22] Fifth Part: Non-ferrous Metal Industry Chain - Various industry chain - related charts are presented for different non-ferrous metal varieties, such as the exchange copper inventory change, LME copper inventory, copper concentrate smelting fee, zinc inventory change, zinc concentrate processing fee change, etc. [24][26][28] Sixth Part: Non-ferrous Metal Arbitrage - Arbitrage - related charts for different non-ferrous metal varieties are provided, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, Shanghai copper and London copper basis, zinc Shanghai - London ratio change, etc. [58][60] Seventh Part: Non-ferrous Metal Options - Option - related charts for different non-ferrous metal varieties are provided, such as the historical volatility of copper options, the weighted implied volatility of copper options, the historical volatility of zinc options, etc. [78][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global sugar market is in a state of oversupply, but concerns about a decline in Guangxi sugar production may support domestic sugar prices. Zheng sugar short - positions are advised to exit and wait and see [3]. - The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the cost of new warehouse receipts is rising, which is expected to drive up the bottom of the futures price. However, due to high inventory and weak paper mill profits, it is difficult to form a trending upward market in the short term. Short - term operations can consider long - positions at low levels in the range [3][4]. - The spot price of offset paper remains stable, and the futures price may fluctuate with the basis. As the basis narrows, the upward space of the futures price may be limited. Consider short - positions near the pressure level [5][6]. - The global cotton supply is abundant, and the domestic cotton market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term supply is sufficient, but there is a long - term support due to the expected decline in planting area. It is recommended to hold long - positions in the 05 contract cautiously [9]. - The apple 05 contract is facing a game between supply decline and the off - season of consumption, maintaining a high - level range expectation. It is recommended to adopt the idea of buying on dips [10]. - The market's expectation of a decline in jujube production has cooled, and the consumption season is approaching. Aggressive investors can consider short - term long - positions in the 2609 contract near 8900 - 9000 points [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2605**: Recommend buying on dips. The new - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak value have declined year - on - year, but the driving force for consumption growth is insufficient. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 10000 - 10200 [20]. - **Jujube 2605**: Recommend short - term long - positions at low levels. The expectation of production decline may be gradually reflected in the far - month contracts. The support range is 8500 - 8600, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [20]. - **Sugar 2605**: Recommend temporary waiting and seeing. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar - cane pressing season is underway. The market is worried about the decline in production and sugar - making rate this season, weakening short - position confidence. The support range is 5000 - 5030, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5330 [20]. - **Pulp 2605**: Recommend long - positions in the range. The futures price has risen above the price of the main physical delivery product, increasing potential delivery pressure. There is limited improvement in the fundamentals, but there is support below. The support range is 5300 - 5400, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5800 [20]. - **Offset Paper 2605**: Recommend temporary waiting and seeing. Raw material fluctuations affect the price of offset paper from the cost side, but the spot price is stable, and the futures price may operate within a range. The support range is 3900 - 4000, and the pressure range is 4200 - 4300 [20]. - **Cotton 2605**: Recommend holding long - positions cautiously. The external market is operating at a low level, the domestic market expectation is positive, and the long - term bullish expectation is strong. The futures price is expected to move up. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of apple cold storage in the main producing areas was 7.021 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons [21]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The price of late - maturing bagged Fuji in Shandong is stable, and the overall shipment has slightly increased. The price of bagged Fuji 65 - 70 in Qixia is 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per catty. The price in Shaanxi is also stable, and the trading volume of cold - storage merchants has increased. The price of bagged Fuji 70 in Luochuan is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty. The arrival volume in the sales area has slightly decreased, and the price is stable [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of one week before New Year's Day, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,898 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 37.17%. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market supply is increasing. The overall sales in the sales area are stable, showing a pattern of "overall stability and local dynamic adjustment" [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of December 31, 2025, the sugar - cane crushing volume in India was 133.921 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24%, and the sugar production was 11.83 million tons. From the beginning of the 2025/26 season to December 27, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Thailand was 14.0733 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.71%, and the sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.83%. As of December, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was 86,600 tons, and the sugar - making rate was 8.72%. India's domestic sugar sales quota in January 2026 was 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with January 2025 [27]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market In November 2025, the total import volume of pulp was 3.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The total export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp was 1.6206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. The export volume to China was 636,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% [29]. 3.2.5 Offset Paper Market The inventory days of offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand is still weak, and the inventory pressure has increased. The operating rate is 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points, and the increase rate expanded by 0.23 percentage points [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market The sowing progress in the Argentine cotton area has reached about 90%, and the final planting area is estimated to be between 380,000 and 430,000 hectares. The new - cotton planting progress in Brazil is about 25%, basically the same as the same period last year, and the final sown area is expected to be between 2.05 million and 2.1 million hectares. As of now this year, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, accounting for about 20% of the total estimated output [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9547 | 427 | 4.68% | | Jujube 2605 | 8955 | - 10 | - 0.11% | | Sugar 2605 | 5257 | 6 | 0.11% | | Pulp 2605 | 5530 | - 2 | - 0.04% | | Cotton 2605 | 14655 | 70 | 0.48% | [32] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan per catty) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan per kilogram) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan per ton) | 5330 | - 20 | - 710 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5580 | 0 | - 870 | | Offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan per ton) | 15615 | 30 | 888 | [39] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided, only figures are mentioned, such as the basis of Apple 5 - month contract, Jujube main contract, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Monthly Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Prediction | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1026 | - 30 | 1313 | Oscillating strongly | Buying on dips | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 45 | 145 | - 710 | Range - bound | Waiting and seeing | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 21 | 8 | - 39 | Oscillating | Waiting and seeing | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 190 | - 15 | - 25 | Oscillating weakly | Selling on rallies | [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific data summary provided, only figures about the top 20 long - positions, short - positions, trading volume, etc. of each variety are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 2102 | - 18 | 148 | | Sugar | 6005 | 823 | - 4775 | | Pulp | 115576 | 11089 | - 224540 | | Cotton | 6118 | 406 | 2531 | [83] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data No specific data summary provided, only figures about option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, etc. of apple, sugar, and cotton are mentioned.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The medium - and long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged. The future copper price center is expected to rise. It is recommended to gradually go long on Shanghai copper at low prices and consider buying out - of - the - money call options in the far - month [3][13]. - Zinc is expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation pattern. It is advisable to go long at low prices or consider a bull spread [4][13]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to take a long - biased approach for Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy, and use out - of - the - money put options for protection [5][14]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see or buy at low prices, and pay attention to the impact of other non - ferrous metals, mine conditions, and policy regulations. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [7]. - Lead is expected to continue to oscillate. A double - selling strategy can be considered [8][15]. - Nickel and stainless steel are likely to continue a relatively strong trend. It is recommended to go long at low prices, but also pay attention to the impact of the US dollar's rise on non - ferrous metals [9][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: During the New Year's Day holiday, non - ferrous metals in the overseas market showed mixed performance. China's manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range, which is positive for industrial product demand. Geopolitical situations fluctuated, and attention should be paid to whether the safe - haven demand will lead to a rise in the US dollar and affect non - ferrous metals. After the holiday, pay attention to the performance of nickel and aluminum [12]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Metal** - **Copper**: It is affected by factors such as improved US dollar liquidity, inventory contradictions, and valuation repair. The downstream acceptance of high copper prices is increasing, but the supply of copper concentrates in 2026 may be tight. It is recommended to go long at low prices, with a short - term upper pressure range of 105,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [3][13]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot supply is tightening, and it is expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation. The upper pressure is around 23,500 - 23,800 yuan, and the lower support is around 22,800 - 23,000 yuan. It is advisable to go long at low prices [4][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Shanghai Aluminum**: It is recommended to take a long - biased approach, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan [5][14]. - **Alumina**: It is recommended to short at high prices, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan [5][14]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: It is recommended to take a long - biased approach, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan [5][14]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see or buy at low prices, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan [7][14]. - **Lead**: It is expected to continue to oscillate, with a lower support around 16,700 - 16,800 yuan and an upper pressure around 17,500 - 17,700 yuan. A double - selling strategy can be considered [8][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Nickel**: It is likely to continue a relatively strong trend, with an upper pressure around 135,000 - 136,000 yuan and a lower support around 128,000 - 130,000 yuan. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9][15]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected to continue to rise, with an upper pressure around 13,000 - 13,200 yuan and a lower support around 12,400 - 12,500 yuan. It is advisable to go long at low prices [9][15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as copper closing at 98,240 yuan with a 0.15% increase, and zinc closing at 23,275 yuan with a 0.45% decrease [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is provided, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors for each variety [18]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, such as the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price at 99,430 yuan/ton with a 1.63% increase, and the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot price at 23,330 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase [20]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Graphs related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends, which help to analyze the supply - demand relationship and price trends of each metal [22][23][27]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Graphs related to the arbitrage of each non - ferrous metal are provided, such as the Shanghai - London ratio changes and the basis spreads of copper, zinc, aluminum, and other metals, which can be used for arbitrage analysis [54][59][62]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Graphs related to the options of each non - ferrous metal are presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest, which can be used for options trading analysis [72][74][77].

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月04日星期日 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, South American soybean growth is good with high probability of a bumper harvest, and US soybean export progress is slow, leading to a weak trend in CBOT soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, concerns about subsequent soybean customs clearance time drive up domestic soybean prices [3][5]. - For edible oils, soybean oil inventory is declining, and it is expected to be strong in January but prone to decline in the medium - long term; rapeseed oil is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the core of the future market depending on the evolution of China - Canada trade relations in 2026; palm oil is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the potential for a price boost from the expected poor outlook in 2026 [3][4]. - For feed products, soybean meal is expected to be strong in the short - term but not recommended for chasing high prices; rapeseed meal may maintain a volatile pattern; corn is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, and short - term long positions are recommended [5][6]. - For livestock products, the live pig futures price is in a weak shock, and it is recommended to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed before buying at low prices; the egg futures price has fallen below historical lows, and it is recommended to avoid short - selling blindly and consider buying at low prices for the 2605 contract [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 05 | High auction transaction rate and premium transactions of domestic soybeans, improved sentiment. Abundant domestic soybean supply and good growth of South American soybeans. | 4060 - 4080 | 4270 - 4280 | Bullish shock | Hold short - term long positions [11] | | | Soybean No.2 05 | Good growth of South American soybeans. Pay attention to recent soybean customs clearance inspection. | 3350 - 3380 | 3530 - 3550 | Rise first then fall | Short on rebounds [11] | | | Soybean oil 05 | Sufficient domestic soybean oil supply. The promotion of international biodiesel policies may fall short of expectations. | 7600 - 7650 | 7900 - 7950 | Shock | Wait and see [11] | | | Rapeseed oil 05 | Australian rapeseed has not entered the crushing process, and domestic inventory continues to decline. | 8650 - 8700 | 9500 - 9550 | Volatile | Wait and see [11] | | Fats and Oils | Palm oil 05 | Previous negative factors are exhausted, and the fundamentals of the main producing areas have improved but limited. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board expects a poor outlook for palm oil in 2026. | 8300 - 8350 | 8700 - 8750 | Bullish shock | Go long on dips [11] | | Protein | Soybean meal 05 | Sufficient supply. Pay attention to recent soybean customs clearance. | 2650 - 2680 | 2830 - 2850 | Rise first then fall | Short on rebounds [11] | | | Rapeseed meal 05 | The expected increase in supply has not been realized, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The market lacks effective drivers. | 2270 - 2300 | 2440 - 2450 | Volatile | Wait and see [11] | | Energy and By - products | Corn 03 | Poor quality of North China corn, structural contradictions still exist. The recent market is disturbed by the news of imported corn auctions, with some pressure, but overall futures prices are expected to remain within a range. | 2160 - 2170 | 2300 - 2320 | Bullish shock | Short - term long - term thinking [11] | | | Corn starch 03 | Fluctuates within a range following the cost of corn. | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Bullish shock | Short - term long - term thinking [11] | | Livestock | Live pigs 03 | The price of feed stops falling and rebounds, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Find the bottom in shock | Try long positions with light positions [11] | | | Eggs 05 | Decrease in new production and expectation of peak consumption season. | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Find the bottom in shock | Buy on dips [11] | 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - month spreads, positive spreads are recommended for soybean No.2 3 - 5 and soybean meal 3 - 5, and short on rallies for corn 3 - 5. Other varieties are recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - For inter - commodity spreads, short positions are recommended for 05 rapeseed oil - soybean oil and 05 rapeseed oil - palm oil, and other varieties are recommended to wait and see [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The document provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties such as oilseeds, fats and oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Fats - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including CNF prices, import duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rate data of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts. For example, soybean port inventory is 826.40 (- 5.28), and the soybean oil mill operating rate is 45.00% (- 10.00%) [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including deep - processing enterprise consumption, inventory, operating rate, and farmers' grain - selling progress [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, slaughter data, and inventory data [20][21][22][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Live Pigs, Eggs)**: It includes charts of the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related cost and inventory data [26][28][29][33]. - **Oilseeds and Fats**: It includes charts of the production, export, inventory, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [37][44][53]. - **Feed End**: It includes charts of the price, basis, inventory, and consumption of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [56][62][67][78]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Fats - It provides charts of the historical volatility of various varieties and the trading volume and open interest of corn options [89][90][91]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Fats - It provides charts of the warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, and live pigs [97][99][100].

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月30日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 有色板块在铜带领下有所调整，但铝产业链相关品种跌幅不大，临 近假日建议减仓观望为主，上方压力区间23000-24000，下方支撑 区间21000-21300，可买入虚值看跌期权做保护。氧化铝现货价格 暂时企稳，在产产能环比持平，建议节前轻仓操作，上方压力区间 2800-3000，下方支撑区间2000-2200，可买入虚值看涨期权做保 护。 ...