有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月24日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 金银市场结束盘整，突破上行，铜跟随上涨，较节前价格微升。但 铜作为顺周期资产，关税担忧的重燃一定程度限制其上涨空间，金 铜比再度上升。美国2025年四季度以及2025年全球经济增速低于 预期，但通胀和核心通胀高于预期，对铜价影响偏中性。美国 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | 作者： 宋从志 从业资格证号： F03095512 投资咨询证号： Z0020712 联系方式： 18001936153 作者： 王亮亮 从业资格证号： F03096306 投资咨询证号： Z0017427 联系方式： 010-68578697 作者： 辛旋 从业资格证号： F3064981 投资咨询证号： Z0016876 联系方式： -- 作者： 汤冰华 从业资格证号： F3038544 投资咨询证号： Z0015153 联系方式： 010-68518793 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月24日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 节后首日，郑糖主力合约高开后先扬后抑，午后收于5229元/吨。 广西南宁白糖报价5320元/吨，环比持稳。印度糖产量或不及预期 ，泰国糖产量同比下滑，国际糖供应过剩的局面有所改善，国际 ...

摘要 【行情复盘】春节后首日化工及股市大幅高开，受此提振，橡胶期 价增仓再度挑战前高，假期橡胶海外现货稳中偏强，产地停割对胶 价形成支撑。宏观美国2025年四季度美国GDP增速环比折年率1.4 %，远低于市场预计的2.5%，也低于三季度的修正值4.4%；美国个 人消费支出（PCE）物价指数上涨2.9%，高于前值的2.8%; 美国1 月核心CPI年率如期降至2.5%，创近5年来新低, 从通胀结构来看， 超级核心服务通胀环比增速录得1年以来新高，核心商品本次环比 反弹力度料更大；相对而言现阶段经济的关注高于通胀，降息预期 有所抬升。另一端，美伊对抗进一步升级，美国考虑对伊朗实施有 限的军事打击，同时俄乌谈判未取得实质性进展，原油价格大幅高 开，原油带动合成橡胶出现高开，但需警惕美伊局势变化导致地缘 情绪降温以及宏观避险情绪升温带来原油溢价回吐，此外需要关注 中方对新一轮关税措施的回应情况。 农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月23日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶周度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】春节假期外盘橡胶期价整体波动不大，产地现货价格 稳中偏强，但美伊对抗进一步升级，美国考虑对伊朗实施有限的军 事打击，同时俄乌谈判未取得实质性进展，原油价格预计将会大幅 高开，节后原油可能带动合成橡胶出现高开，整体呈现偏强走势， 但需警惕美伊局势变化导致地缘情绪降温以及宏观避险情绪升温带 来原油溢价回吐，此外需要关注中方对新一轮关税措施的回应情况 。 【重要资讯】美东时间20日傍晚，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体 发文称，他刚刚签署行政令，对所有国家征收10%的全球关税，几 乎立即生效，市场对 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | 从业资格证号： F3038544 投资咨询证号： Z0015153 联系方式： 010-68518793 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月22日星期日 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 【交易策略】 假期海 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - farm data in the US has weakened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the holiday atmosphere is strong. The non - farm employment in the US in January increased by 130,000, the largest increase since April last year, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. Wall Street expects the first interest rate cut to be postponed to July. The copper market was affected by the strong US employment data, first rising and then falling. Trump plans to set up a $12 billion strategic reserve for critical minerals, which may give copper a further premium. The US manufacturing activity expanded unexpectedly in January, reaching the fastest growth rate since 2022 [3][12]. - The zinc market is in a state of consolidation. The domestic imported ore TC has slightly decreased, the upstream production reduction is limited, the downstream is on holiday with significantly lightened operations and longer holidays, and the spot inventory continues to increase with the possibility of further inventory accumulation [4]. - The aluminum industry chain is in a state of shock consolidation. The spot price of alumina has stabilized, and there are many restarts after capacity overhauls. The cost support of recycled aluminum alloy has weakened, and it is suppressed by the seasonal off - season and profit inversion, but there are still some factors providing bottom support [5]. - The tin market is in shock consolidation. The Shanghai tin follows the Shanghai nickel and shows a relatively strong trend, but the liquidity decreases before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the changes in capital sentiment, as well as the situation of the ore end and macro - factors [6]. - The lead market is in a low - level shock rebound, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The supply of primary lead has some overhauls, and the production suspension, holiday or overhauls of recycled lead have increased. The downstream demand is weak, and the spot inventory continues to rise [8]. - For the nickel and stainless - steel market, the Indonesian quota is confirmed, and the ore quota of Weda Bay nickel mine in Indonesia is cut by 70%. The cost of nickel products is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The stainless - steel market is in consolidation, and the reduction of the Indonesian quota may increase the cost of stainless - steel production in the future [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals as a whole are in shock, with a strong holiday atmosphere and net capital outflows. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the US - Iran negotiation, still has uncertainties, and there may be fluctuations in the overseas bulk commodities during the holiday. The global major economies are actively deploying hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion. China's CPI and PPI in January showed certain changes, and the US non - farm data affected the market's expectation of interest rate cuts [12]. - **Investment Suggestions**: After a significant adjustment, the non - ferrous metals sector has repaired, and the trends are differentiated. It is advisable to go long on dips according to the strength of the fundamentals after the adjustment pressure is fully released, but it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. For different varieties: - **Copper**: The operation logic includes strong US employment data, Trump's plan for strategic reserves, and the macro - economic situation. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Zinc**: The market is in stage consolidation. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 23,800 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [16]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It is recommended to wait and see. For aluminum, the support range is 22,000 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 26,000 - 27,000 yuan/ton; for alumina, the support range is 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2900 - 3000 yuan/ton; for recycled aluminum alloy, the support range is 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 330,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 450,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 16,400 - 16,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton [17]. - **Nickel**: It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 130,000 - 132,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 138,000 - 142,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Stainless - steel**: It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 12,800 - 13,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Situation**: The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, such as copper closing at 102,330 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase, zinc at 24,650 yuan/ton with a 0.26% increase, etc. [18] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for different varieties such as lithium carbonate, nickel, tin, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price at 102,200 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price at 24,470 yuan/ton with no change, etc. [22] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: Relevant charts about copper, such as exchange copper inventory changes, LME copper inventory, copper concentrate smelting fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper price, are provided [24]. - **Zinc**: Charts related to zinc, including zinc inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fee changes, zinc spot market prices, and galvanized sheet production seasonality, are presented [26][28]. - **Aluminum**: Charts about aluminum, such as the comparison between Shanghai aluminum inventory and aluminum price, LME aluminum inventory and LME aluminum price, LME spot premium and discount trends, and Shanghai Non - ferrous aluminum premium and discount trends, are provided [30][31]. - **Alumina**: Charts related to alumina, including the spot price trend of alumina, alumina port inventory changes, etc., are presented [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Relevant charts are provided, but specific content is not detailed in the text [45]. - **Lead**: Charts about lead, such as lead concentrate 50% processing fee to the factory average price, domestic and foreign exchange lead futures inventory, LME lead 0 - 3 premium and discount, and lead spot price, are presented [49][51]. - **Nickel**: Charts related to nickel, including Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel futures inventory, LME nickel inventory, refined nickel spot premium and discount, and LME nickel 0 - 3 premium and discount, are provided [53][55]. - **Stainless - steel**: Charts about stainless - steel, such as the number of stainless - steel warehouse receipts and stainless - steel spot price, are presented [57][59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - **Copper**: Charts about copper arbitrage, such as the change of copper Shanghai - London ratio and the premium and discount between Shanghai copper and London copper, are provided [61]. - **Zinc**: Charts related to zinc arbitrage, such as the change of zinc Shanghai - London ratio and LME zinc spot premium and discount, are presented [61]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Charts about aluminum and alumina arbitrage, such as aluminum basis and futures - spot price trend, aluminum Shanghai - London ratio trend, Shanghai aluminum continuous one - continuous three trend, and alumina continuous two - continuous one trend, are provided [64][66]. - **Tin**: Charts related to tin arbitrage, such as Shanghai tin basis trend, Shanghai tin continuous three - continuous price trend, and tin Shanghai - London ratio trend, are presented [68][70]. - **Lead**: Charts about lead arbitrage, such as the price difference between Shanghai zinc and Shanghai lead and lead Shanghai - London ratio, are provided [72]. - **Nickel and Stainless - steel**: Charts related to nickel and stainless - steel arbitrage, such as nickel Shanghai - London ratio, nickel/stainless - steel ratio, Shanghai nickel inter - period spread, and nickel - nickel pig iron price difference, are presented [75][76]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - **Copper**: Charts about copper options, such as historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest, are provided [78]. - **Zinc**: Charts related to zinc options, such as historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest, are presented [79][80]. - **Aluminum**: Charts about aluminum options, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume and open interest trend, and the ratio of call to put open interest trend, are provided [83][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, oils, grains, and livestock. It provides insights into supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and offers corresponding trading strategies for different futures contracts [3][4][5]. - For most products, the market is influenced by factors such as domestic and international policies, seasonal demand, and weather conditions. For example, the US biodiesel policy affects the prices of soybeans and soybean oil, and the supply of imported grains impacts the domestic grain market [3][5][7]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: For soybeans, the pre - holiday stocking is ending, but the post - holiday outlook is positive. The supply of domestic beans is sufficient. The expected good performance of US soybeans drives up the prices of domestic beans. For example, the soybean No.1 05 contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long with a light position; the soybean No.2 05 contract is also expected to be volatile and bullish, but it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Oils**: The US biodiesel policy is expected to be positive, and the prices of US soybeans and soybean oil are strong. The inventory of domestic soybean oil is low, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Dalian soybean oil. The rapeseed oil supply is gradually becoming looser, but the price still has support. The MPOB report for palm oil is bullish, but the high - frequency data in February is weak, and the supply - demand situation in the first quarter still has support. For example, the soybean oil 05 contract is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner and it is recommended to wait and see; the rapeseed oil 05 contract is expected to move in a volatile manner and it is recommended to wait and see; the palm oil 05 contract is expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to consider going long at low prices after the holiday [11]. - **Proteins**: The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the pre - holiday stocking is basically over. The expected good performance of US soybean prices may boost the prices of domestic beans. Rapeseed meal is driven by the protein sector. For example, the soybean meal 05 contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long with a light position in the short - term; the rapeseed meal 05 contract is expected to move in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: The supply - demand mismatch during the Spring Festival still supports the prices. The corn 05 contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long at low prices; the starch 03 contract follows the cost of corn and is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to return to a wait - and - see state [11]. - **Livestock**: For pigs, the feed price stops falling and rebounds, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. For eggs, the new production is decreasing, and there is an expectation of a consumption peak season. For example, the pig 03 contract is expected to find a bottom in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to go long with a light position; the egg 05 contract is expected to find a bottom in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For most cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For example, in the oilseed sector, the soybeans No.1 3 - 5 and soybeans No.2 3 - 5 arbitrage are recommended to wait and see; in the oil sector, the soybean oil 5 - 9, rapeseed oil 5 - 9, and palm oil 5 - 9 arbitrage are recommended to wait and see. In the energy and by - product sector, the corn 3 - 5 arbitrage is recommended to go short at high prices [12][13]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [14]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, such as the arrival premium, CBOT futures prices, CNF arrival prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as the operating rates of soybean and rapeseed oil mills [18][19]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and arrival duty - paid costs [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress data of corn and corn starch [20]. 3. Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of pig and egg prices, as well as the weekly key data of the pig market, including prices, costs, profits, slaughter data, etc., and the weekly data of the egg market, including supply, demand, and profit data [20][21][22][23][24]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Pigs, Eggs)**: It includes the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as the spot prices of pigs, piglets, eggs, chicken seedlings, and culled chickens [26][28][29][30][31][32]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes the production, export, inventory, and trading data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, as well as the basis and spread data [35][42][49]. - **Feed End**: It includes the price, basis, spread, inventory, consumption, and processing profit data of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [52][60][67][80]. Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It includes the futures spread, historical volatility, and option trading volume and open interest data of various products [92][93][94]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It shows the warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [100][102][104][107].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector**: For sugar, the international sugar supply is in surplus, leading to a decline in the external sugar market and dragging down Zhengzhou sugar futures prices. With sufficient domestic sugar supply, the price trend is likely downward. For pulp, the fundamentals are weak, lacking positive factors, but there is support for prices as the expectation of supply reduction from overseas producers is rising. For double - offset paper, the cost support weakens, and the price increase is limited. For cotton, the external market continues to put pressure on prices, and the domestic market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [4][7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector**: For apples, the supply - side support remains, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. For jujubes, after the price rebounds from the bottom, it shows a narrow - range shock, and the contradiction between the futures and spot prices is alleviated [8][9][10]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: Apple 2605 is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. Jujube 2605 is recommended for short - term buying at low prices, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: Sugar 2605 is recommended for temporary observation, with a support range of 5070 - 5100 and a pressure range of 5320 - 5350. Pulp 2605 is recommended for light - position long - allocation, with a support range of 5130 - 5200 and a pressure range of 5360 - 5400. Double - offset paper 2605 is recommended for range operation, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4250 - 4300. Cotton 2605 is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [18]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples increased significantly. As of February 12, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The spot price in the production area remained stable, and the sales situation in the sales area was generally good, but the sales of low - quality gift boxes were slow [19][21]. - **Jujube Market**: As of February 9, the physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased week - on - week. Due to a dispersed acquisition structure and a cautious market outlook, holders are more willing to sell before the Spring Festival [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's sugar production decreased, the US sugar production and inventory/consumption ratio were estimated, and Brazil's sugar production and related indicators changed. The market is currently bearish [24]. - **Pulp Market**: Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand, the Chinese pulp market continued to weaken, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remained stable [27]. - **Double - Offset Paper Market**: The inventory days decreased, and the decline rate narrowed. The start - up load rate increased slightly, and the increase rate also narrowed. The overall inventory - reduction speed of the industry decreased [28]. - **Cotton Market**: EU clothing imports showed changes in September and October 2025. In January, Cote d'Ivoire's cotton exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and Australian farmers were optimistic about the yield [29]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices, daily price changes, and daily price change rates of apple 2605, jujube 2605, sugar 2605, pulp 2605, and cotton 2605 are provided [30]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton are presented [36]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figure references are provided Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - For apple, the 5 - 10 spread is 1421, with a positive outlook, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. For jujube, the 5 - 9 spread is - 215, and it is recommended to wait and see. For sugar, the 5 - 9 spread is - 5, with an expected volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see. For cotton, the 5 - 9 spread is - 65, with a weakening trend, and it is recommended to sell at high prices [56]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figure references are provided Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [88]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figure references are provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content, so it is skipped. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US dollar rose and then fell after the US January non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations but was lower than expected for the whole of 2025. The rubber futures price followed the rebound of commodities this week. Before the Spring Festival holiday, capital adjustment led to wide - range market fluctuations. The data showed economic weakness, and the market's interest - rate cut expectation rebounded [3]. - Overseas rubber - producing areas entered the seasonal production - reduction season, with strong willingness of factories to purchase at higher prices, and raw material prices continued to rise, providing strong cost - side support. The raw material supply was relatively tight during the transition to the off - season, and the purchase price increased significantly [3]. - As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory increased, and the inventory in Qingdao increased due to the arrival volume. In the future, the rainfall in the Southeast Asian main rubber - producing areas will decrease, and the impact on rubber tapping will weaken [3]. - In February before the Spring Festival, the commodity market fluctuated significantly. Currently, the supply of rubber in the producing areas is stable, and raw material prices are stable with a slight upward trend. The downstream is in the seasonal off - season, with weak terminal demand and sufficient supply, and the finished - product inventory is increasing. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern is expected to gradually improve as the output peaks [3]. - The industrial products have been adjusted, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for rubber trading. Avoid chasing high prices at high levels. The support and pressure levels for the RU and NR main contracts are given [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Rubber Variety Viewpoint Summary - **Rubber**: The recommended strategy is to go long on dips. The main logic is that the domestic spot inventory has been slightly increasing, overseas supply has no obvious fluctuations, the spot price is firm, and the macro - sentiment boosts the commodity market. The support range is 15500 - 15800, the pressure range is 16300 - 16500, and the market is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **20 - grade rubber**: The recommended strategy is also to go long on dips. The dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory turning point, the Thai glue price is firm, the output declined in the fourth quarter, and there is still support below. The support range is 12700 - 12800, the pressure range is 13420 - 13805, and the market is expected to recover from the bottom [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber Main - continuous | 16450 | - 0.51 | - 85 | 180678 | 152702 | | 20 - grade Rubber Main - continuous | 13370 | - 0.26 | - 35 | 46594 | 50704 | | Singapore TSR20 Main - continuous | 193 | 0.73 | 1 | 16 | 19281 | [9] 3.2.2 Futures Market Warehouse Receipt Situation - The latest warehouse receipt volume of 20 - grade rubber is 50803, with a year - on - year change of - 21.50%. The warehouse receipt has rebounded from a low level recently, and the market's inventory - accumulation expectation has resurfaced. - The latest warehouse receipt volume of rubber is 112570, with a year - on - year change of - 38.86%. The warehouse receipt was significantly cancelled again today, and the futures inventory decreased sharply year - on - year. The delivery risk of futures contracts increased, which supported the RU futures price [13]. 3.3 Spot Market Trends | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Natural Rubber (Yuan/ton) | 16442 | - 109 | - 398 | | Yunnan Glue (Yuan/ton) | 14200 | 0 | - 1800 | | Thai Hat Yai Glue (Thai Baht/kg) | 61 | 1 | - 5 | | Thai Hat Yai Cup Lumps (Thai Baht/kg) | 55 | 1 | - 5 | | Thai 20 - grade Standard Rubber in Qingdao Bonded Area (US dollars/ton) | 2000 | 35 | - 50 | [18] 3.4 Basis and Spread Situation | Futures | Spread Type | Current Value | Month - on - Month | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU Main - contract Basis | Basis | - 133 | - 23 | 412 | | NR Main - contract Basis | Basis | 1755 | - 15 | 45 | | Thai Mixed - RU | Non - standard Basis | - 1320 | - 185 | - 550 | | SVR3L - RU | Non - standard Basis | 175 | - 40 | 260 | | RU - NR | Cross - variety Spread | 3080 | - 50 | 350 | | Whole Milk - Thai Mixed | Light - and Dark - colored Rubber Spread | 995 | 145 | 535 | [23] 3.5 Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 5 - 9 | 95 | 5 | 235 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | 20 - grade Rubber | 3 - 4 | - 75 | - 20 | - 215 | Range - bound | Wait and see | [25] 3.6 Industry Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation - There is no specific text summary in the provided content, but relevant data can be found in the figures such as ANRPC member countries' overall supply - demand situation, natural and synthetic rubber import volume year - on - year, China's automobile production year - on - year, tire production start - up rate, tire inventory days, and natural rubber inventory [29][30]. 3.7 Option - related Data - There is no specific text summary in the provided content, but relevant data can be found in the figures such as the trading and holding situation of natural rubber options, the put - call ratio, historical volatility, and implied volatility [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity and fresh fruit and vegetable futures markets have complex supply - demand situations and price trends, with different trading strategies recommended for each variety [3][6][7]. - For sugar, the international supply surplus and domestic sufficient supply may lead to a downward price trend, and the SR2605 contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [3]. - Pulp is in a state of general fundamentals and low valuation, and the price has support but needs supply - side reduction news to strengthen. The 2605 contract is recommended to reduce short positions on dips and wait and see [3][4]. - Double - offset paper has weak cost support, and the spot price is stable. The 2605 contract is recommended to try short - selling on rallies [5]. - Cotton has a supply - abundant situation, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The 05 contract long positions are recommended to be reduced [6]. - Apples have supply - side support, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [7]. - For jujubes, the 2605 contract is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points, and protective put options can be bought for long positions. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Interval | Pressure Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Reduce long positions | Supply - side support exists, but the overall commodity sentiment is volatile recently, with short - term oscillatory trends | 8800 - 8900 | 11000 - 11500 | | Jujube 2605 | Short - term buy on dips | The expected production reduction may gradually appear in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has started to peak and decline | 8700 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 | | Sugar 2605 | Wait and see | The overall supply is relatively sufficient | 5070 - 5100 | 5320 - 5350 | | Pulp 2605 | Lightly long - allocate | The downstream is in the off - season, and pulp lacks new positive factors. There may be cost support for warehouse receipts | 5130 - 5200 | 5360 - 5400 | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Interval operation | The spot market is stable, but the demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to the support after the basis widens | 4000 - 4100 | 4250 - 4300 | | Cotton 2605 | Reduce long positions | The long - term positive expectations remain, but the external price decline restricts the domestic price, and the short - term price may fluctuate | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 | [16] 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 5, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 563,510 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 375,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 554,900 tons [17]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples is stable. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage trading is gradually decreasing. In the sales area, the recent arrival volume has increased significantly, and the overall sales situation is okay with stable prices [17][18][19]. 3.2.2 Sugar Market - The USDA's February report shows that the estimated total sugar production in the US in the 2025/26 season is 9.41 million short tons, with a sugar inventory/consumption ratio of 15.9%. As of mid - January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 345,000 tons [20]. - As of the week of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 210,289 contracts, showing strong bearish sentiment in the market [20]. 3.2.3 Pulp Market The Chinese pulp market continues to weaken due to falling futures prices and weakening demand for key resale varieties. The spot price of imported NBSK has declined, and the inventory in major ports has increased [24]. 3.2.4 Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The industry's overall inventory reduction speed decreased. The operating load rate was 57.43%, with a slight increase [25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market - In January, Vietnam's cotton imports were 152,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 17.8%. The main import sources were the US, Brazil, and Australia [26]. - As of February 6, the new cotton sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, advanced by 22 percentage points to 90%, faster than the same period last year. As of the end of January, the 2026 new cotton sales progress in Mato Grosso was about 55%, slightly faster than the previous year [26]. - In January 2026, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 3.615 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.35% and a month - on - month increase of 11.77% [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9601 | 101 | 1.06% | | Jujube 2605 | 8895 | 225 | 2.60% | | Sugar 2605 | 5266 | - 12 | - 0.23% | | Pulp 2605 | 5236 | 34 | 0.65% | | Cotton 2605 | 14745 | 90 | 0.61% | [27] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5330 | 0 | - 670 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5300 | 0 | - 1400 | | Double - offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16029 | 41 | 1204 | [32] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific text description provided. Only relevant charts are mentioned, such as the basis of Apple 5 - month contract, Jujube main contract, etc. [46][47][49] 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1343 | 57 | 2046 | Oscillating strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 205 | 45 | 215 | Reverse spread on rallies | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 9 | 1 | - 140 | Oscillating | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 80 | 35 | 85 | Oscillating weakly | Sell on rallies | [52] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific text description provided. Only relevant charts showing the top 20 long and short positions and trading volume changes of each variety are mentioned [59][63][69]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 3673 | 127 | - 399 | | Sugar | 14461 | 0 | - 9526 | | Pulp | 146427 | 0 | - 198876 | | Cotton | 10746 | 60 | 4016 | [84] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific text description provided. Only relevant charts about option trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratios of apple, sugar, and cotton are mentioned [87][94][99].