1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market has shifted from a volatile state to a stronger one. The positive domestic policies have led to a rotation and upward movement in the industrial product sector, and the optimistic sentiment is still being digested. For the current rebound of non - ferrous metals, it is regarded as a staged rebound. In operation, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short - term but avoid over - chasing the rise, and beware of the ebbing of sentiment. Also, continue to pay attention to the resonance between the supply - demand drivers of each variety and the macro - environment, as well as the trend changes of the leading varieties in this round of rise [11][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector continued the general rebound trend from last weekend and showed stronger performance. Trade negotiations and tariff impacts were temporarily mitigated. The market focused on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data remained resilient, and the Fed's independent decision - making led to changes in interest - rate cut expectations. In China, policies to counter in - fighting were implemented, and measures to stabilize growth in key industrial sectors were expected. Major projects were initiated, driving the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend of new energy and black metals. Overseas, interest - rate cut expectations were still fluctuating, and trade negotiations were ongoing. Attention should be paid to trade - related information as August 1st approached [11]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has been decreasing recently. The total supply this week is expected to be lower than last week, and downstream consumption is expected to increase. The Shanghai copper market is expected to have a situation of weak supply and strong demand, and there are conditions for the price to stop falling and rise. The support area is 77000 - 78000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips [3][13]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strengthened recently. The supply is expected to increase further, and the demand is mixed. The zinc market is expected to have a staged rebound. It is advisable to be bullish in the short - term and bearish on rallies in the medium - term. The support area is 21600 - 21800 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton [4][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum market is expected to be bullish. For the 09 contract, the support area is 20000 - 20200 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 21000 - 21200 yuan/ton. The alumina market is also expected to be bullish, with the 09 contract's support area at 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton and the pressure area at 3700 - 3900 yuan/ton. The cast aluminum alloy market is also recommended to be bullish in the short - term [5][13]. - **Tin**: The tin market has a situation of both weak supply and demand. Short - term bullish thinking is recommended. The support area is 250000 - 255000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 270000 - 290000 yuan/ton. It is advisable to buy out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Lead**: The lead price has rebounded and then consolidated. The inventory has continued to rise, and downstream demand needs further recovery. The lead market is expected to continue to consolidate. The support area is 16800 - 17000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 17200 - 17400 yuan/ton. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market has a pattern of overall supply surplus. There are signs of supply contraction in some areas, but downstream demand is weak. The nickel price is expected to have a staged rebound, with the upper target at 123000 - 125000 yuan/ton and the lower support at 115000 - 116000 yuan/ton. The stainless steel market has a situation of both weak supply and demand. The support area is 12300 - 12400 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton [8][16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided. For example, the closing price of copper futures is 79740 yuan/ton, with a 0.05% increase; the closing price of zinc futures is 22945 yuan/ton, with a 0.09% increase; etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short changes, and influencing factors of different varieties such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given. For example, the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price is 79830 yuan/ton, with a 0.04% increase; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot price is 22770 yuan/ton, with a 0.26% decrease; etc. [20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant industry chain charts are provided, such as the exchange copper inventory change, zinc inventory change, aluminum inventory and price trend comparison, etc. These charts help to analyze the supply - demand relationship and price trends in the industry chain [22][23][26] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage are provided, including the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, zinc Shanghai - London ratio change, aluminum basis and spot - futures price trend, etc., which are used for arbitrage analysis [49][51][53] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to non - ferrous metals options are provided, such as the historical volatility of copper options, the weighted implied volatility of zinc options, the trading volume and open interest changes of aluminum options, etc., which are used for option analysis [65][67][69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector: The international raw sugar market is under pressure and may continue to fluctuate within a range. The domestic sugar market has a supply - demand gap, and the spot price is firm. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Paper pulp fundamentals change little, but may be driven by market sentiment. The global cotton market has a slight inventory build - up, and the domestic cotton market is in a game between supply tightening expectations and weak downstream consumption. The price increase is expected to slow down [3][4][6]. - Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector: Apple futures prices continue to oscillate at a high level, supported by overall commodity sentiment, the influence of the jujube market, and its own fundamentals. Jujube futures prices are in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather during the fruit - setting period in the producing areas [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - Apple 2510: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The consumption is average, and the initial production estimate for the new season is better than before, putting pressure on the overall futures price. Support range is 7300 - 7350, and pressure range is 7900 - 8000 [17]. - Jujube 2601: Hold long positions. The overall commodity sentiment is strong, and in the third quarter, jujubes enter the production - forming period, and the price is likely to rise due to weather concerns. Support range is 10200 - 10400, and pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [17]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2509: Short - term band trading. Raw sugar has rebounded, the domestic spot price is firm, but import pressure restricts the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate. Support range is 5750 - 5770, and pressure range is 5850 - 5870 [17]. - Pulp 2507: Temporarily wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, the finished paper price is weak, overseas prices are lowered, and the domestic re - inflation trading expectation is positive for pulp. Support range is 5000 - 5100, and pressure range is 5300 - 5400 [17]. - Cotton 2509: Hold long positions cautiously. The previous negative factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices affect the market. Support range is 13200 - 13300, and pressure range is 14400 - 14500 [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamentals**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 3.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of July 16, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 tons. As of July 17, it was 73.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.03 tons. The estimated national apple production is 3659.04 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.03%, but according to another estimate, the 2025 - 2026 production season shows a slight increase [18]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the mainstream transaction price is stable. In the northwest production area, early - maturing varieties are on the market, and the price is high [19]. - **Jujube Market**: As of July 18, the inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly. Affected by the rising futures price, the spot price in each sales area increased slightly. The market is in the off - season, and the terminal demand is limited. Attention should be paid to the new - season production in the producing areas [20]. - **Sugar Market**: Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks of July 2025 increased by 9.78% year - on - year. As of Tuesday morning, the spot price of Guangxi sugar - making enterprises decreased to 6010 - 6040 yuan/ton [22]. - **Pulp Market**: The demand is weak, the supplier's quotation is firm, the port inventory is high, and the downstream paper - making market is in the off - season. Arauco lowered the price of its Uruguayan factory's bleached broadleaf pulp by 10 dollars/ton to 490 dollars/ton [25]. - **Cotton Market**: In June 2025, Pakistan's textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year. China's cotton imports in June 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. As of July 15, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased [26][27]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: Apple 2510 closed at 7929, up 0.08%; Jujube 2509 closed at 9485, up 1.23%; Sugar 2509 closed at 5823, down 0.27%; Pulp 2509 closed at 5368, up 0.64%; Cotton 2509 closed at 14225, up 0.28% [27]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples was 3.90 yuan/jin, down 0.15 yuan month - on - month and 0.25 yuan year - on - year; jujubes were 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year; sugar was 6050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 410 yuan year - on - year; pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 150 yuan year - on - year; cotton was 15549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan month - on - month and 193 yuan year - on - year [30]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 10 - 1 spread is 126, unchanged month - on - month and up 41 year - on - year, expected to oscillate repeatedly, recommend waiting and seeing. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is - 1005, down 960 month - on - month and down 670 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, recommend waiting and seeing. - Sugar 9 - 1 spread is 170, up 1 month - on - month and down 83 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, recommend waiting and seeing [46]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Jujube: 8912 warehouse receipts, down 35 month - on - month and down 2808 year - on - year. - Sugar: 21359 warehouse receipts, down 78 month - on - month and up 5068 year - on - year. - Pulp: 255819 warehouse receipts, down 100 month - on - month and down 250723 year - on - year. - Cotton: 9436 warehouse receipts, down 65 month - on - month and down 2722 year - on - year [75]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The sentiment of lithium resource supply shortage has resurfaced, resonating with the current "anti - involution" market. The optimistic commodity atmosphere supports the strong performance of lithium salt spot and futures prices. For industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, the "anti - involution" sentiment continues to ferment, and the market has stronger expectations for future supply - side reforms, production control, and reduction. Although the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are still weak, the main logic of the market operation lies in the "strong expectations" brought by policies [4][5][6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Prices 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - For the lithium carbonate 09 contract, it is expected to operate in a volatile and relatively strong manner. The support level is 65,000 - 66,000, and the pressure level is 78,000 - 83,000. It is recommended to seize the opportunity for selling hedging, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to low - level stockpiling or buying hedging. For the industrial silicon 09 contract, with the high - rising "anti - involution" sentiment, it may maintain an upward trend in the short term. The support level is 8,900 - 9,000, and the pressure level is 9,900 - 10,000. It is recommended to take a bullish approach. For the polycrystalline silicon 08 contract, with the high - rising "anti - involution" sentiment, it may maintain an upward trend in the short term. The support level is 43,000 - 44,000, and the pressure level is 50,000 - 51,000. It is recommended to take a bullish approach [15] 3.1.2 Spot and Futures Price Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate is 72,880, with a daily increase of 2.24%, a trading volume of 1,118,226, an open interest of 411,638, an open - interest increase of 30,453, and 10,089 warehouse receipts. The closing price of industrial silicon is 9,655, with a daily increase of 4.27%, a trading volume of 1,234,403, an open interest of 380,961, an open - interest decrease of 2,335, and 50,053 warehouse receipts. The closing price of polycrystalline silicon is 49,105, with a daily increase of 8.99%, a trading volume of 757,482, an open interest of 192,179, and 2,780 warehouse receipts [16] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: On Tuesday, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 68,877 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,136 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,100 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 67,450 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,100 yuan/ton. Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 19,115 tons, an increase of 302 tons from the previous week. The full - caliber sample inventory was 142,620 tons, an increase of 1,827 tons from the previous week, hitting a new historical high. The weekly apparent demand was 17,288 tons, reaching a high for the year, and the inventory - available days were 57.7 days [4] - **Downstream Situation**: No specific data provided, but only relevant figure references are given, such as the capacity of lithium iron phosphate, the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate devices, the monthly operating rate of SMM ternary materials, and the monthly output of lithium hexafluorophosphate [26][28] 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The sentiment of "anti - involution" to manage the disorderly low - price competition in the market continues to ferment. The cost of industrial silicon has increased due to the significant rise in coal prices. In June, China's industrial silicon exports increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, reaching the highest monthly level since May 2024. Although the fundamentals are still weak, the market is expected to operate in a volatile and relatively strong manner [6] - **Downstream Situation**: No specific data provided, only relevant figure references are given, such as the monthly output of Chinese organic silicon DMC and the operating rate of aluminum alloys [37] 3.2.3 Polycrystalline Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The sentiment of "anti - involution" to manage the disorderly low - price competition in the market continues to ferment. Although the supply - demand situation has not changed much and the oversupply situation persists, last week's inventory decreased because the rise in silicon material prices boosted the downstream's enthusiasm for picking up goods, and enterprises had a large volume of shipments for previous orders [8][9] - **Downstream Situation**: No specific data provided, only relevant figure references are given, such as the monthly output of silicon wafers and the monthly output of Chinese photovoltaic modules [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the coking coal and coke markets, including market logic, trading strategies, and fundamental factors. It also offers important industry news and policy updates [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Trading Strategies and Spot-Futures Market Conditions - **Trading Strategies**: For coking coal, short - term small - scale long positions can be taken after it breaks through the key pressure level, and risk - averse investors can wait for a pull - back to replenish long positions. For coke, long positions can be continued on a single - side basis with proper position control, and a spot - futures positive spread strategy should be maintained [4][5][12]. - **Domestic Prices**: In the futures market, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1456.00, up 31.50, and the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 871.50, up 28.00. In the domestic spot market, prices of various grades of coke and coking coal remained stable compared to the previous day [13][14]. - **Import Prices**: The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal was 748.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal was 940.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The prices of imported coking coal from other regions such as Australia and Russia showed different degrees of change [17]. - **Base - spread Situation**: The base - spread data for coke and coking coal from different sources are provided, with the futures prices and corresponding converted warehouse - receipt prices presented [20]. Part 2: Fundamentals - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants was 63.01%, with a change of 1.11% compared to the previous period. The daily output of clean coal was 53.44 tons, with a change of 1.34 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 75.27%, with a change of 1.86%, and the daily output was 53.66 tons, with a change of 1.21 tons [23]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking coal at six ports was 304.27 tons, with a change of 18.68 tons. The coking coal inventory of coking plants was 848.18 tons, with a change of 39.20 tons, and that of steel mills was 789.60 tons, with a change of 8.39 tons. The inventory of coke at four ports was 191.12 tons, with a change of - 8.97 tons, and the coke inventory of coking plants and steel mills also showed different degrees of change [25]. Part 3: Spreads No specific numerical or descriptive content about spreads is provided, only a list of related spread charts is given [31]. Other Important Information - **Industry News**: The US Treasury Secretary believes that the market may be pricing in Trump's view on interest - rate cuts, and Trump plans to impose new tariffs on copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, etc. The Japanese Prime Minister responded to the US tariff issue. China's National Development and Reform Commission official mentioned the development of infrastructure in the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Methanol**: Coal prices are weakly stalemated with limited cost support. Supply is relatively stable, downstream demand follows mainly for rigid needs, and inventory accumulates slowly. With some Iranian devices shut down, imports may shrink later, and the methanol futures price has rebounded strongly. In the short - term, the center of gravity may continue to rise, but considering the high - temperature off - season, chasing the rise is not recommended. [3] - **PVC**: The cost side remains low, the market has abundant available goods, and demand follows generally, resulting in a slow market de - stocking speed. The upward trend of PVC futures price is hard to sustain. [4] - **Urea**: Daily production remains high, supply is abundant, and demand is weak with gradually accumulating enterprise inventory. With the expectation of improved agricultural demand, the urea futures have gradually stabilized. [5] - **Caustic Soda**: Enterprise profits are declining, the current capacity utilization rate is relatively high, downstream demand follows slowly, and market de - stocking is not smooth. Fundamentally, there is a lack of driving force, and it may fluctuate at a low level. [6][7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Variety Strategy Views | Variety | Logic | View | Strategy | Support Level | Pressure Level | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | Import concerns | Steady upward exploration | Reduce long positions | 2330 - 2350 | 2530 - 2550 | | PVC | Insufficient demand | Upward pressure | Light - position short - trial | 4730 - 4750 | 4850 - 4900 | | Caustic Soda | Spot premium | Low - level wash - trading | Temporarily wait and see | 2200 - 2210 | 2330 - 2350 | | Urea | Loose supply and demand | Weak oscillation | Stop loss and exit short positions | 1650 - 1670 | 1730 - 1750 | [14] 3.2 Second Part: Futures Market Review | Variety | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | 2511 | 2367 | 2464 | 2593634 | 820106 | 0.00% | | PVC | 4866 | 4792 | 4860 | 1194646 | 978942 | 0.00% | | Urea | 1727 | 1680 | 1723 | 411867 | 279024 | 0.00% | | Caustic Soda | 2278 | 2237 | 2276 | 410848 | 201021 | - 6.32% | [14] 3.3 Third Part: Spot Market Trends - **Methanol**: Spot prices in different regions are as follows: Central China 2255 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), Northwest 2010 yuan/ton (up 63 yuan/ton), South China 2450 yuan/ton (up 105 yuan/ton), North China 2055 yuan/ton (unchanged) [21] - **PVC**: Spot prices in different regions are as follows: North China market 4493 yuan/ton (unchanged), East China market 4755 yuan/ton (unchanged), South China market 4823 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton) [24] - **Urea**: Small - particle urea ex - factory prices in different regions vary, such as 1693 yuan/ton in North China (up 5 yuan/ton), 1781 yuan/ton in East China (up 6 yuan/ton), etc. [26] - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices in different regions are as follows: Shandong market 870 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu market 960 yuan/ton (unchanged), Zhejiang market 1160 yuan/ton (unchanged) [29] 3.4 Fourth Part: Futures - Spot Basis Changes | Variety | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | 121 | 30 | | PVC | - 105 | - 1 | | Caustic Soda | 22 | - 5 | | Urea | - 3 | - 72 | [36] 3.5 Fifth Part: Industry Startup Levels | Variety | Soda Ash | Methanol | PVC | Urea | Caustic Soda | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Startup Rate | 84.90% | 87.98% | 79.25% | 87.80% | 80.90% | | Month - on - Month Change | 4.14% | - 0.14% | - 1.47% | - 1.63% | - 2.60% | [41] 3.6 Sixth Part: Inventory Data Tracking | Variety | Soda Ash | Methanol | PVC | Urea | Caustic Soda | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory | 170.95 | 65.22 | 35.48 | 117.71 | 40.09 | | Weekly Change | 2.32 | 7.10 | - 0.66 | 14.17 | - 1.50 | [52] 3.7 Seventh Part: Market Supply and Demand Status - **Methanol**: The spot market atmosphere is warm, with prices rising. The spot is at a premium to futures, and the basis has expanded. The upstream coal market is stalemated, and the cost side changes little. The industry startup rate is high, and production is stable. Coastal inventory has increased significantly compared to the same period last year [57] - **PVC**: The spot market atmosphere is poor, with prices slightly loosening. The spot is at a discount to futures, and the basis has slightly expanded. The upstream raw material calcium carbide market has a small increase, and the PVC industry startup rate is expected to decline slightly. Social inventory has decreased significantly compared to the same period last year [58] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market atmosphere has cooled, with prices falling in some regions. The spot is at a large premium to futures, and the basis has fallen from a high level. The startup rate has decreased slightly, and the profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has shrunk significantly. Supply is generally stable, and downstream demand is average [59][60] - **Urea**: The spot market atmosphere is stable, with prices rising. The spot is at a small premium to futures, and the basis has converged. The startup rate has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased significantly. Downstream demand has improved slightly [61]

期货研究院 铁合金日度策略 黑色建材团队 摘要 【重要资讯】 1.美国洛杉矶局势继续恶化。约700名美国海军陆战队士兵将部署 至洛杉矶地区，这数量较之前进一步增多。有美媒指出，派遣海军 陆战队整个营前往洛杉矶，标志着特朗普政府以军事力量向抗议者 进行武力展示行动的显著升级。 2.中钢协：维护产业链整体利益 共同抵制"内卷式"竞争。5月份 ，部分车企再次大幅下调新能源汽车产品价格，新一轮"价格战" 的恐慌情绪在汽车行业弥漫开来。中国汽车工业协会迅速发布《关 于维护公平竞争秩序、促进行业健康发展的倡议》，强调"'价格 战'严重影响企业正常经营，冲击产业链供应链安全，把产业发展 带入恶性循环"。 3.新华社：从日内瓦到伦敦，朝着对话合作相向而行。6月9日13时 左右，英国伦敦。全球媒体聚光灯前，中美经贸代表团走进兰卡斯 特宫，开启了中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。近一个月前，5月10日 至11日，瑞士日内瓦，中美举行经贸高层会谈并发布联合声明，一 致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制，迈出通过对话协商解决经贸问题的 重要一步。 4.6月10日临汾安泽市场炼焦煤价格下跌10元/吨，低硫主焦精煤A 9、S0.5、V20、G85出厂价现 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号： | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0018596 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578169 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年06月05日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆一：东北市场大豆价格平稳，产区粮源较为紧张，农户忙于春耕 ，无暇售粮，贸易商收粮也较为困难，因此市场挺价意愿浓厚。销 区市场目前以 ...

黑色建材团队 | 作者： | 段智栈 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03140418 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0021604 | | 联系方式： | 18810293832 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年05月21日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 黑色系焦煤焦炭日度策略 摘要 【重要资讯】 1.当地时间5月20日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国曾帮助以色列建 立导弹防御系统，美国系统的技术将比以色列更先进。特朗普称， 国会法案将包括250亿美元的"金穹"建设资金，总成本将高达17 50亿美元。 2.5月20日，中国—东盟经贸部长特别会议以线上方式举行，双方 经贸部长共同宣布全面完成中国—东盟自贸区3.0版谈判。3.0版谈 判于2022年11月启动，历经近两年时间、9轮正式谈判，于2024 年10月实质性结束。在各国经贸部长全力协调和共同推动下，双方 全面完成谈判，向签署升级议定书的目标又迈出关键一步。 3.5月21日，巴基斯坦俾路支省胡兹达尔地区一辆载有学生的校车 在前往学校的路上发生爆炸，造成5名儿童死亡，38人受 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The results of the China-US talks exceeded expectations, with the US reducing tariffs on China. The terminal's window period for rush exports and re - exports has been extended, and the demand expectation for the next two months has improved marginally [5]. - The situation of the Suez Canal has changed, with a 15% transit fee discount for large container ships starting from May 15, aiming to boost traffic and revenue [4]. - Wall Street banks and traders have adjusted their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Citi have postponed their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [4]. - For coking coal, the domestic supply is increasing, and the inventory pressure is concentrated in coal mines. Although it benefits from tariff reduction in the short term, there is still pressure on the price after the rebound [5]. - For coke, steel mills have started the first round of price cuts in May. The cost support is weakening, and the short - term strategy is to go short on rallies [7]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Trading Strategies and Spot - Futures Market Conditions 1. Domestic Prices - Futures: The prices of coking coal and coke showed weak performance after rebounding. The J2509 contract of coke closed at 1472.00 (unchanged), and the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 883.00 (unchanged) [13]. - Domestic Spot: The prices of first - grade and second - grade coke in Tangshan, and quasi - first - grade and first - grade coke in Rizhao remained unchanged. The prices of medium - sulfur and low - sulfur main coking coal in Lvliang and Anze also remained unchanged [14]. 2. Import Prices - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased by 5.00 yuan/ton to 820.00 yuan/ton, while the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal remained unchanged at 1015.00 yuan/ton. The prices of some imported coals such as Peak Downs (CFR) and Peak North (CFR) increased slightly, while others remained unchanged [18]. Part 2: Fundamental Analysis 1. Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 63.01%, with a change of 1.11% compared to the previous period. The daily average output of clean coal was 53.44 tons, with a change of 1.34 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 75.27%, with a change of 1.86%. The daily average output of coke in independent coking plants and 247 steel mills also had corresponding changes [23]. 2. Inventory - The coking coal inventory in six ports decreased by 13.97 tons to 297.81 tons. The coking coal inventory in coking plants decreased by 42.66 tons to 916.62 tons, while the coking coal inventory in steel mills increased by 2.42 tons to 787.21 tons. The coke inventory in four ports decreased by 9.04 tons to 229.08 tons, the coke inventory in coking plants decreased by 4.52 tons to 94.44 tons, and the coke inventory in steel mills decreased by 4.19 tons to 671.03 tons [26]. Part 3: Price Spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the document, only figures related to price spreads are listed [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment has changed with tariff adjustments, trade situation improvement, and shipping fee discounts. The black market is in a weak state with only short - term rebounds, not reversals. For manganese silicon, it may rebound in the short - term but is expected to decline after reaching a peak. For silicon iron, it is still in a weak position, and a short - term long - position can be considered after a decline [5][7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Trading Strategies and Futures - Spot Market Conditions - **Trading Strategies**: For manganese silicon, use range - bound operations with short - selling on rebounds, with support at 5400 - 5420 yuan/ton and resistance at 5900 - 5920 yuan/ton. For silicon iron, mainly use range - bound operations, try short - term long - positions after a decline and short - sell on rebounds, with support at 5400 - 5420 yuan/ton and resistance at 5700 - 5720 yuan/ton [6][8][14] - **Futures - Spot Market Conditions**: The opening, high, low, closing prices, trading volume, settlement price, open interest, and other data of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures contracts are provided [14] 3.2 Second Part: Ferroalloy Fundamentals 3.2.1 Weekly Production and Demand - **Production**: Relevant charts show the weekly production values of silicon manganese and silicon iron [18] - **Demand**: Charts display the weekly demand values of silicon manganese and silicon iron, and the daily average pig iron production also affects the demand for ferroalloys [22][23] 3.2.2 Ferroalloy Inventory - Charts show the national ending inventory and inventory days of silicon manganese and silicon iron [24][27][29] 3.2.3 Ferroalloy Production Cost - Relevant charts present the spot production cost and profit of silicon manganese and silicon iron, as well as the average price of semi - coke in Ningxia and the market price of chemical coke in Shanxi [31][35][39] 3.3 Third Part: Option Strategies 3.3.1 Manganese Silicon Options - The trading volume, change, open interest, change, turnover, change, and relevant ratios of call options, put options, and overall manganese silicon options on May 16, 2025 are provided [40] 3.3.2 Silicon Iron Options - The trading volume, change, open interest, change, turnover, change, and relevant ratios of call options, put options, and overall silicon iron options on May 16, 2025 are provided [42]