豆类市场2026年年报 豆类：云涛暗涌千帆竞 仓廪星移四季风 ——2025年豆类市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 王亮亮 Z0017427 摘要： 国际市场来看，2025/26 年度，新季美豆播种面积同比大幅下调，按照美豆优良 率与生长季天气来看，1 月继续下调单产的可能性较高，我们预计新季美豆产量或同 比下降 300-500 万吨左右。美国大豆需求主要是压榨与出口消费。近年来美豆压榨 消费表现强劲，后续主要变数在于其生柴政策的调整，而生柴政策的调整很大程度 上受国际柴油价格与大豆出口情况影响。受美国贸易保护主义影响，我国进一步加 强了巴西大豆的进口、弱化了美国大豆的进口。2025 年四季度，中美元首会晤使得 中美贸易关系似乎有所缓和，但对美豆仍然保留了 10%的加征关税，商业进口利润 依旧为深度负值，这也限制了市场层面对于美豆的采购量，意味着中美贸易关系虽 有缓和但仍严峻，我国能否持续对美豆采购直接影响着CBOT大豆期价的上行高度。 总体而言，受新季美豆产量同比下降与成本端的支撑，CBOT 大豆下方空间预计不大， 支撑位或许在 1000-1050 美分/蒲。如果美豆对华出口顺利，那么 ...

碳酸锂：非经一番寒彻骨 哪得梅花扑鼻香 碳酸锂市场 2026 年年报 方正中期期货研究院 有色贵金属与新能源团队 魏朝明 Z0015738 摘要： 2025年上半年上游锂矿石到下游正极材料、电芯价格整体延续此前两年的下 跌趋势，碳酸锂价格于6月份跌破6万元大关；下半年市场供需好转预期改善，动力电 池和储能电池对碳酸锂的需求携手放量带动碳酸锂连续四个月库存去化，价格于四季 度回升至10万元关口附近。由于钴资源供应受到非洲主要产地地缘因素影响价格年内 显著走强，三元材料价格较磷酸铁锂系列表现相对坚挺。 ——2025 年碳酸锂市场回顾与 2026 年展望 据供需平衡表测算，2026年锂盐供需两旺同时年度级别看库存累积的态势仍 将延续，储能端对锂资源需求超预期向好，能一定程度对冲新能源汽车需求增速下滑 的担忧。锂盐价格仍处于向历史低位区间（6万元下方）回归的进程中。2026年上半 年平衡表的主要矛盾是新能源汽车需求阶段性回落；2026年下半年平衡表的主要矛盾 是国内外锂盐新增产能的集中释放。与此前的宽幅波动相比，即便将来锂价新的周期 到来，随着低成本盐湖及回收提锂（生产环节成本较低）占比提升，锂盐长期稳定运 行的基础 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the tin price showed an overall upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the tight supply situation at the mine end is expected to ease, with a likely front - tight and back - loose pattern. The smelting end's operating rate is expected to gradually recover, and processing fees may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue to grow in 2026, benefiting from the semiconductor industry. The tin price in 2026 is expected to remain strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [2][90][92]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tin Market Review 3.1.1 Long - term Tin Price Trend Review - Since 2011, the tin price has gone through eight stages: a continuous decline from the second half of 2011 to the end of 2015 due to global economic concerns; a sharp rise from the end of 2015 to the end of 2016 due to supply - side structural reforms; an oscillatory trend from early 2017 to April 2019 as supply exceeded demand; a continuous decline from April 2019 to March 2020 due to trade disputes and the COVID - 19 pandemic; a new high from April 2021 to March 2022 due to loose policies and supply - demand imbalance; a sharp fall from March to October 2022 due to Fed rate hikes; an oscillatory trend from November 2022 to March 2024 under the influence of supply - side disturbances and a falling US dollar index; and a strong rise and subsequent high - level oscillation from March 2024 to the present [10][11][13]. 3.1.2 2025 Tin Market Review - **Tin Futures Price Review**: The tin price in 2025 showed a pattern of rising first, then falling, and then rising again. In the first quarter, it rose due to tight mine - end supply. In mid - March, the civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo pushed up bullish sentiment. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, there was a systemic risk, followed by a narrow - range oscillation. In September, the price rose again due to supply issues and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal tin smuggling [15]. - **Tin Spot and Premium/Discount**: In 2025, the domestic tin spot was at a discount, while the LME tin premium/discount hovered around 0 [19]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - In 2025, the eurozone economy was relatively sluggish, with controllable inflation and a loose European Central Bank. The US economy had some resilience, but its growth momentum weakened, and the risk of recession increased. The Chinese economy showed resilience, but faced deflationary pressure. In 2026, the inflation in Europe and the US is expected to gradually decline, and major central banks are likely to continue the rate - cut cycle. The US economy may see moderate growth, while the eurozone's growth may remain low. China's macro - economic policies are expected to be more proactive, and the inflation environment may gradually improve [20]. 3.3 Tin Market Supply Analysis 3.3.1 Tin Ore Supply May Be Front - tight and Back - loose - In 2025, there were many disruptions in tin ore supply, such as the suspension of mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. From 2025 - 2026, new projects are few, and the ore increment is limited. In 2026, the global tin ore production is expected to increase slightly by about 4,500 metal tons, reaching about 360,000 tons. China's tin ore production has been gradually decreasing in recent years, but showed a small increase in 2025. China's tin ore imports are expected to gradually increase in 2026. The tin ore price showed an upward - trending oscillation in 2025, and the processing fee was at a low level [24][25][26]. 3.3.2 Refined Tin Production Will Maintain Growth - In 2025, the domestic refined tin production of sample enterprises increased year - on - year. Overseas, there was a supply shortage in the first 9 months of 2025. In general, the tight mine - end supply in the past two years affected the smelting capacity. The smelting operating rate is expected to gradually rebound in 2026, with a slightly higher growth rate than in 2025. In 2025, the refined tin import window was mostly closed, and China became a net exporter of refined tin. The short - term import window is difficult to open [38][42][43]. 3.4 Tin Market Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Tin - plated Sheet Production Declined While Exports Increased - In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. In 2025, it declined significantly due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and weak domestic demand. However, exports increased, mainly due to strong external demand and China's cost - advantage. But the future export situation may be affected by the substitution of new materials and trade - relief investigations [47][48]. 3.4.2 Lead - acid Battery Production Increased Significantly - In recent years, the rapid development of the e - bike, express delivery, and takeout industries supported the consumption of lead - acid batteries. In 2025, the production growth rate accelerated, but exports declined year - on - year [56]. 3.4.3 The Growth Cycle of Electronic Products May Be Near the End - In 2023, the downward cycle of electronic products turned around. In 2024, they showed positive growth. In 2025, the growth rate of computer and smartphone production slowed down. In 2026, the growth rate of production and sales of computers and mobile phones is expected to slow down but remain positive [60]. 3.4.4 Integrated Circuit Production Will Maintain Rapid Growth - Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. The growth rate accelerated in the second half of the second quarter and then declined in the third - quarter off - season. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, the production and sales of integrated circuits are expected to maintain high - speed growth in the medium and long term [63]. 3.4.5 The Photovoltaic Industry Is in a Transition from the High - speed Development Stage - In 2024 and 2025, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly. However, the industry faces over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and capacity growth will be more orderly. The global new - installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to reach 665GW, and the new tin demand is expected to reach about 43,000 tons [66]. 3.4.6 The New - energy Vehicle Industry Maintains Growth - In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Due to the cost - advantage and policy support, the sales will continue to grow. In the long - term, the growth rate will slow down, but the marginal increment is still significant. In 2026, the production and sales growth rate is expected to be between 15 - 20% [71]. 3.5 Tin Inventory First Rose and Then Fell - In 2024, the inventories of the two major exchanges showed different trends. In 2025, the SHFE inventory first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. The LME inventory decreased first and then increased. As of December 1, the total inventory of the two exchanges was at a medium level. The LME tin premium/discount narrowed in 2025, and the import window was intermittently open [74][77]. 3.6 Global Refined Tin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - Since 2018, the global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months. In 2025, the supply was tight in the first half and loose in the second half, while demand continued to grow. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will also grow moderately, maintaining a tight - balance situation [80]. 3.7 Seasonal and Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Seasonal Analysis - Historically, the tin price is weakest in March, and the probability of decline is high in March, August, September, and October. It often performs strongly in January, July, and December. In 2025, the tin price showed a wide - range oscillation, with most months showing a decline except April [83]. 3.7.2 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line of the Shanghai Tin main contract, in March 2025, the price broke through the 270,000 - yuan mark and then fell back. In August, it accelerated its rise, filled the gap after the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and broke through the previous high of the year. In the short - term, the upward momentum is not exhausted, and it may approach the historical high in 2022 [87]. 3.8 LME Position Analysis - In the past three years, the tin price has maintained a wide - range oscillation. Investment funds generally held a net - long position, which increased significantly in the second half of 2025. Investment companies, credit institutions, and commercial enterprises held different positions. As of November 28, 2025, investment companies and credit institutions had a net - long position of 2,309 lots, investment funds had a net - long position of 5,002 lots, and commercial enterprises had a net - long position of - 6,339 lots [89]. 3.9 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In 2025, the tin price showed an upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the supply at the mine end is expected to ease, the smelting operating rate may recover, and the processing fee may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector is expected to continue to grow. The tin price in 2026 is expected to be strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [90][92]. 3.10 Related Stocks - Stocks such as Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Xingye Co., Ltd. (603928.SH), Yintai Gold Co., Ltd. (000975.SZ), and others are related to the tin industry. Their stock prices showed different monthly and annual growth rates [93].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, copper was the most outstanding variety in the non - ferrous metal sector, with the best supply - demand fundamentals, the strongest financial attributes, and the smoothest upward logic. Its annual increase was the largest since 2009 [1]. - In 2026, copper is expected to be one of the strongest - performing commodities. The supply of copper concentrates will be tighter than in 2025, and the global copper supply - demand pattern will shift from a tight balance to a supply shortage. The copper - gold ratio has room for significant repair, and valuation repair may become the underlying driver of copper price increases in 2026. The expected trading range of the main Shanghai copper contract is 89,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton as the support and 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton as the resistance [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Long - term Copper Price Trend Analysis and 2025 Trend Review - **Copper Price Historical Trend Review**: From the 1990s to 2023, copper prices experienced five major upward cycles, mainly driven by factors such as economic growth, financial attributes, and supply - demand imbalances. Since 2024, the contradiction of tight global copper mine supply has been prominent, and in 2025, the structural contradiction of refined copper inventory dominated the copper price trend [13][14][19]. - **2025 Copper Price Trend Review**: In 2025, the copper price showed different trends in different stages. In the first quarter, it oscillated strongly; in April, it recovered after a decline; from May to August, it fluctuated at a high level; from September to December, it entered a second main upward wave and reached a new high. Supply - side disturbances and demand - side changes were the main driving factors [22][24][27]. Second Part: Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Influencing Factors - **Domestic Economic K - shaped Differentiation, New and Old Kinetic Energies at Two Extremes**: In 2025, China's economic growth kinetic energy shifted from investment to consumption and exports. Investment also shifted from traditional infrastructure and real estate to high - end manufacturing, digital economy, and new energy. The anti - involution policy in the third quarter boosted inflation to some extent. In 2026, China's economy will continue this transformation trend, and copper will benefit from strong demand in related fields [33][42][44]. - **The US Dollar Index Enters the Middle of the Downtrend, and the US Manufacturing Industry Enters the Expansion Cycle**: In the future, the US copper demand has great growth potential. The US manufacturing industry has been performing strongly, and the "Creation Mission" plan will increase copper demand. The US dollar index is expected to continue to decline in 2026, which will boost the copper price from a valuation perspective [56][57][72]. Third Part: Spot Premiums and Discounts No specific summary content provided in the text, only a figure about the seasonal trend of spot premiums and discounts is mentioned [75]. Fourth Part: Global Copper Supply Analysis - **Frequent Disturbances in Global Copper Mine Supply, Strong Constraints on Copper Concentrate Production**: In the long - term, global copper mines face problems such as slow production growth and declining grades. In 2025, supply disturbances increased, and the annual production growth rate was expected to be less than 2%. The global competition for copper resources is intensifying. In 2026, the supply of copper concentrates is expected to remain tight [78][79][95]. - **The Tight Supply of the Mining End Has Not Been Transmitted to the Smelting End, and China's Electrolytic Copper Production Has Reached Record Highs**: In 2025, although the supply of copper concentrates in China was tight and TC processing fees hit a record low, electrolytic copper production still increased significantly, mainly due to new capacity, high prices of by - products, and the substitution of scrap copper. In 2026, the supply of copper concentrates will still be tight, and China's electrolytic copper production is expected to remain at a high level but may slightly decline year - on - year [107][108][111]. - **The Spread between Refined and Scrap Copper Widens, and the Supply of Recycled Copper Resources Is Tight**: In 2025, the supply of scrap copper in China was tight, mainly due to concerns about tariffs on US scrap copper imports and policy impacts on recycled copper rod enterprises. In 2026, the situation of tight scrap copper supply may continue [123][124][127]. - **The Willingness to Export Electrolytic Copper Has Significantly Increased, and Imports Have Decreased**: In 2025, affected by the expected US tariff on copper imports, the export willingness of electrolytic copper in China increased, and imports decreased. The demand for copper concentrate imports increased [132][133][134]. Fifth Part: Global Inventory Structural Contradictions Are Prominent Since 2024, the impact of the global copper inventory structure on the price has been increasing. In 2025, the total inventory of the three major exchanges increased, but the COMEX inventory increased significantly, while the Shanghai and London inventories were maintained at low levels. In 2026, the structural contradiction of global copper inventory is expected to remain difficult to resolve [141][142][143]. Sixth Part: Copper Demand Analysis - **China's Copper Product Output Reached a Record High, and the Output Growth Rates of Refined Copper Rods and Copper Foil Were Obvious**: In 2025, China's copper product output reached a record high, with the output of refined copper rods and copper foil growing rapidly. In 2026, the output growth rate of refined copper rods is expected to increase, while the output of copper tubes and copper rods may decline, and the demand for copper foil is expected to continue to grow at a high rate [149][150][151]. - **Power Grid and New Energy Demand Are Strong, and Real Estate Demand Continues to Be Weak**: In 2025, power grid investment increased, while real estate investment declined, and the demand for copper in the home appliance sector weakened. In 2026, power grid investment is expected to achieve double - digit growth, while real estate and home appliance demand are expected to have limited improvement [169][170][171]. - **New Energy and AI Fields Are Expected to Be Important Sources of Future Copper Demand Increases**: In 2025, the copper consumption in the new energy industry increased. In the future, the new energy vehicle market is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 20%, and the copper demand in the AI field is expected to increase explosively. By 2030, the combined copper demand in the new energy and AI fields is expected to account for 22% of the total demand [181][182][185]. Seventh Part: Arbitrage Analysis In 2025, there were differences in the price increases of major global copper markets in the first half of the year. The copper - to - zinc ratio continued to rise. In 2026, the copper - to - zinc ratio is expected to continue to increase, and the copper - to - London ratio still has room to decline [202][204]. Eighth Part: Position Analysis In 2025, the net long positions in the COMEX copper futures and options market increased significantly, and the long positions of LME copper investment funds also increased. The investment funds had an obvious impact on the copper price [210]. Ninth Part: Seasonal Analysis Copper prices tend to perform well in January, March, October, November, and December, mainly due to demand - side factors such as policy support and seasonal demand peaks [215]. Tenth Part: Copper Options Market Analysis In 2025, the implied volatility of copper options showed an upward trend, and the option market was bullish on copper prices. In 2026, the implied volatility center of copper is expected to move up, which is beneficial to option buyers [218]. Eleventh Part: Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet In 2025, the global copper market's supply - surplus situation improved. In 2026, the global copper market is expected to shift from a supply surplus to a supply shortage, with an expected shortage of 150,000 tons [226]. Twelfth Part: Technical Trend Analysis From a technical perspective, copper has broken through the nearly 20 - year oscillation range since 2006, and the future upward space is promising [232]. Thirteenth Part: Full - text Summary and Operational Suggestions In 2026, copper is expected to be one of the strongest - performing commodities. The supply - demand pattern will shift to a shortage. The recommended operations are for downstream demanders to conduct long - hedging in far - month contracts, for spot holders to hold and wait for price increases, and for option buyers to consider buying call options [235][236]. Fourteenth Part: Related Stocks The report lists the performance of some copper - related stocks in 2025, including their year - to - date price increases and current prices [237].

氯碱市场2026年年报 氯碱：碱海潮生复潮落 V风深谷待春雷 ——2025年氯碱市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 能源化工团队 夏聪聪 Z0012870 摘要： 2025 年，PVC 市场供需维持宽松态势，高库存成为市场常态。PVC 处于产业周 期的低迷筑底阶段，走势尚未企稳，面临低估值、弱驱动的困局。产业链上下游表 现均低迷，原料电石低位运行，PVC 成本端偏低，尽管自身价格回落，面临生产压 力增加，但大部分生产装置运行平稳，行业开工高位波动，市场可流通货源充裕。 下游市场持续低迷对 PVC 市场形成拖累，由于终端订单不佳，下游制品厂生产缺乏 积极性，市场面临开工不足。管材/管件、型材/门窗均与房地产挂钩，而地产仍处于 调整阶段，PVC 需求回暖乏力。供应稳定，而需求疲弱，华东及华南地区社会库存 居高不下。受到相关政策的扰动，PVC 出口增长势头突出，一定程度上缓解国内市 场压力，但难以主导 PVC 行情走势。2026 年，PVC 企业投产计划寥寥无几，产能增 速或放缓，若企业亏损持续扩大，可能出现检修或减产情况，而下游需求复苏略显 乏力，价格优势下出口或保持平稳增长态势。2026 年，PVC ...

苹果市场2026年年报 苹果：万树垂珠摇欲坠，一朝风起散作尘 ——2025年苹果市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 侯芝芳 Z0014216 摘要： 2025年苹果期价走势大致可以分为两段，上半年以区间震荡为主，下半年为趋势 性上涨。年度上涨行情主要集中在下半年。本轮上涨的核心驱动是天气因素的持续不 利，导致供应端预期被不断向下修正。具体来看，产区不利天气贯穿了苹果生长的关 键时期：花期部分主产区遭遇降温、大风；生长期又出现阶段性持续干旱；进入收获 期后，部分产区再度迎来持续阴雨天气。多重不利天气的叠加效应，使得供应端矛盾 逐步凸显并加剧。最终，产量、优果率下降、入库量都是预期下沿兑现，推动了苹果 期价的此轮上涨行情。 风险提示：交割博弈变化导致多头情绪退潮、产区再度出现超预期的不利天气。 | 第一部分 长期走势与2025年行情回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 一、期货市场走势分析 3 | | | （一) 长期走势分析 3 | | | （二）2025年走势分析 | 6 | | （三）期货成交与持仓情况 7 | | | 二、现货市场走势分析 8 | | | 第二部分 苹果供 ...

贵金属市场 2026 年年报 贵金属：金银岂是池中物 一遇风云便化龙 ——2025 年贵金属市场回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 有色贵金属与新能源团队 梁海宽 Z0015305 摘要： 2025 年是贵金属市场大放异彩的一年，黄金白银成为全球主要资产类别中涨幅最 好的两类资产，白银年内实现翻倍，黄金涨超 60%，均为 1979 年以来最好的年度表 现。驱动本轮贵金属牛市的底层逻辑是全球对美元体系信仰的动摇，美元指数年内下 降幅度超 10%，二季度开始美国市场开始罕见地出现股债汇三杀，美元和美债的传统 避险属性开始失灵，逐步具备风险资产特征。美债实际利率对贵金属价格的解释力度 进一步下降，当前贵金属市场开始计价美国以及全球的债务风险，是资金基于对传统 信用货币体系不信任的终极对冲选择。美联储独立性在今年遭受了近半个世纪以来最 严峻的挑战，金银货币属性开始熠熠生辉。9 月美联储时隔一年再次开启降息周期， 在通胀未被完全驯服的情况下，美债实际利率下行。另外，贵金属的定义开始从传统 的避险资产逐步转向抗通胀资产和风险资产，开始成为全球非美资产配置中的重要一 环。从基本面来看，今年黄金实际供需处于小幅供应 ...

棕榈及菜系市场2026年年报 棕榈与菜系：蓬身已随洪波宽，菘节犹阻寒潭 清 ——2025 年棕榈与菜系市场回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 王亮亮 Z0017427 ➢ 摘要： 棕榈油：今年以来，棕榈油盘面呈现出冲高回落走势，但盘面重心有所上移。主产地 供给扰动事件带动盘面短期大幅冲高，但年内印尼恢复性增产及马棕产量预计创历史 新高下，实际供给维持充裕水平；而受全球生柴掺混需求利多及印度植物油消费增长 提振，需求端同样表现亮眼，供需双增下，基本面延续紧平衡态势，进而棕榈油价格 重心有所上移。 年底来看，11 月后马棕转向减产季，但今年减产力度不及往年，加上淡季出口需求 超预期回落，拖累产地库存大幅累库，短期价格或偏弱承压。但往后看，减产季数据 仍需继续关注，主产地树龄问题也将限制产量上方高度。需求端，明年 2 月印度斋月 前或将迎来一波需求释放，同时全球生柴政策仍将提供长期利好支撑。往后可关注一 季度的逢低做多机会。 展望明年，25/26 年度棕榈油全球供需预计维持紧平衡态势，市场关注点主要在于明 年印尼 B50 政策的推行效果、主产地天气情况以及出口需求情况，主产地树龄问题， 1 请 ...

2025年玉米期货价格呈现"涨—跌—涨"的波段走势。上半年，在中储粮增储与 进口谷物减少的共同支撑下，玉米期价震荡上行；随后进口玉米周度拍卖启动，供应 收紧的预期被打破，叠加新季产量前景乐观与下游需求疲软，价格承压回落。进入收 获期后，华北地区持续降雨影响了玉米质量，打乱了此前乐观的产量预期。与此同时 ，中下游环节库存整体偏低，引发阶段性集中采购，推动期价自低位反弹回升。展望 2026年，玉米期价预期冲高回落，关键点在于陈粮的投放节奏与时间以及总量确认预 期差。受今年华北玉米质量普遍偏差的影响，中下游企业补库与囤粮意愿有所增强， 导致整体供应压力向后推迟。因此，陈粮何时投放、以何种节奏进入市场，将成为影 响后续压力的核心变量，总量确认预期差，将是这些囤粮关键摇摆因素。其他影响因 素方面，美玉米出口表现强劲，叠加下一年度种植面积预计收缩，可能推动CBOT玉 米价格逐步筑底回升，进而对国内玉米市场带来情绪上的支撑。消费端预计仍处于缓 慢去产能的博弈阶段，难以形成强力拉动。而下一年度国内玉米产量目前初步预计保 持稳定，对价格的影响相对温和，不过天气不确定性使得驱动不明朗。玉米2601合约 预期波动区间2200-23 ...

白糖市场2026年年报 白糖：潮生自有回落处 江阔终归海样深 ——2025年白糖市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 王亮亮 Z0017427 ➢ 摘要： 2025 年底随着我国南方蔗糖厂开榨，国内新糖供应递增，叠加年内糖进口放量， 国内糖期现货价格齐跌。目前郑糖主力合约技术层面仍处于下行通道，各月份合约 也形成了近强远弱的反向市场格局，体现出市场对于后市价格的悲观预期。 2026 年全球食糖供应宽松格局持续，国际糖价预计仍将偏弱运行。目前巴西榨 季进入尾声，一季度关注印度及泰国糖开榨产量及出口落地情况。市场预计新榨季 两国糖增产，并且印度将糖出口配额上调至 150 万吨，但印度糖目前出口倒挂，关 注印度政府是否会采取出口补贴等手段完成其出口任务。2026 年一季度斋月备货也 正值巴西停榨的窗口期，往年来看这一阶段国际糖价易涨难跌，预计 2026 年一季度 国际原糖价格同样有望止跌反弹，而印度如果此时增加糖的出口或将限制糖价的涨 幅。目前来看，巴西糖生产情况较为乐观，弱拉尼娜背景下巴西甘蔗减产的概率不 大，2026 年巴西糖仍有望增产，并且巴西玉米乙醇成本低于甘蔗乙醇，巴西政府提 升乙醇强 ...