1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soft commodity sector, the overall supply of sugar is relatively abundant, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures may continue to be weak in the near term. The upward space of pulp is limited, and there is support at the bottom. The upward space of double - offset paper futures is also restricted, and cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium - term with short - term adjustments. - For the fresh fruit sector, the apple futures may experience high - level adjustments in the short - term and support in the medium - term. The jujube futures may have a short - term bottom - support and a transition to a supply - demand balance situation [2][9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2605**: Recommend to reduce long positions. The support from factors such as new - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak - value decline year - on - year still exists, but the suppression of insufficient consumption growth has increased. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [20]. - **Jujube 2605**: Recommend short - term buying on dips. The expected reduction in production may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has started to decline seasonally. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [20]. - **Sugar 2605**: Recommend short - term short positions with a light position. The international and domestic sugar supplies are relatively abundant. The support range is 5070 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5270 - 5300 [20]. - **Pulp 2605**: Recommend short positions within the range. Although there are still positive factors in supply and warehouse - receipt cost increase, the downstream performance has been average recently, which may put pressure on the market. The support range is 5200 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5550 - 5600 [20]. - **Double - offset paper 2605**: Recommend range - bound operations. The spot market is stable, and the basis has expanded to support the market temporarily. However, the subsequent publication orders may weaken, and the price increase is limited due to low capacity utilization. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4300 - 4350 [20]. - **Cotton 2605**: Recommend to reduce long positions. The foreign market is operating at a low level, while the domestic market has positive expectations. The far - end positive expectations are strong, but the short - term sentiment has retreated, and the price may be adjusted. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of January 15, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 655,570 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 488,000 tons [21]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Shandong and Shaanxi production areas are stable. In Shandong, the sales volume has slightly increased, and in Shaanxi, the cold - storage packaging volume is acceptable during the Spring Festival stocking period [21][22]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. The acquisition in the production areas has basically ended, and the market is expected to enter a peak sales period with the approaching of the Lunar New Year [23]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market - In December 2025, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil was 73.4 tons per hectare, a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. From January 1 to 20, 2026, Brazil exported 1.4366 million tons of sugar and molasses, a year - on - year increase of 9.09%. - As of January 13, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 165,711 contracts, indicating strong bearish sentiment. As of January 15, 2026, the sugar production in India reached 15.885 million tons, higher than the same period last year. From the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to January 17, 2026, the sugar production in Thailand decreased by 16.09% year - on - year [25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The Chinese pulp market demand has significantly slowed down. The futures market fluctuations have made traders and investors cautious. The price of NBSK has dropped, and traders expect further price declines and have raised the forward resale quotes [29]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market As of Thursday this week, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed month - on - month. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed has decreased, and the operating load rate was 57.43%, with a marginal increase [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In December 2025, China's cotton cloth imports increased year - on - year and month - on - month in terms of meters, weight, and amount. The export volume and amount of cotton yarn decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. - In December 2025, India's textile exports decreased year - on - year, while clothing exports increased. Japan's cotton imports reached the highest level since September 2024. As of January 15, 2026, the new - season seed - cotton listing volume in Pakistan was basically the same as the previous year [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9371, up 26 or 0.28% [32]. - Jujube 2605 closed at 8700, down 115 or 1.30% [32]. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5183, down 61 or 1.16% [32]. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5376, up 14 or 0.26% [32]. - Cotton 2605 closed at 14525, down 20 or 0.14% [32]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan per catty, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan [40]. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan [40]. - The spot price of sugar was 5330 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan [40]. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5400 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 1180 yuan [40]. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4350 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan [40]. - The spot price of cotton was 15856 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1076 yuan [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific numerical analysis content is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned, including the basis of Apple 5 - month, Jujube main contract, Sugar main continuous contract, Pulp main continuous contract, and Cotton 5 - month [51][54][57]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple 5 - 10 spread**: The current value is 1249, a month - on - month decrease of 121 and a year - on - year increase of 1769. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the recommended strategy is to buy on dips [59]. - **Jujube 5 - 9 spread**: The current value is - 240, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 90. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. - **Sugar 5 - 9 spread**: The current value is - 17, a month - on - month decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 149. It is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [59]. - **Cotton 5 - 9 spread**: The current value is - 175, a month - on - month decrease of 10 and a year - on - year decrease of 10. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific numerical analysis content is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned, including the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume, and net long and short position changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton [66][70][77]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse - receipt Situation - The warehouse - receipt volume of apples is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [91]. - The warehouse - receipt volume of jujubes is 3298, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 706 [91]. - The warehouse - receipt volume of sugar is 14439, a month - on - month increase of 313 and a year - on - year decrease of 9692 [91]. - The warehouse - receipt volume of pulp is 139554, a month - on - month decrease of 30 and a year - on - year decrease of 201310 [91]. - The warehouse - receipt volume of cotton is 9647, a month - on - month decrease of 11 and a year - on - year increase of 3167 [91]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific numerical analysis content is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned, including the trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton options [94][101][108].

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月20日星期二 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周二，豆油主力05合约午后收于8032（日变动36或0.45% ）。我国油脂库存下降叠加南方冻雨影响以及马棕油高频数据利多 等多重因素推动油脂价格短期走强。而中加释放贸易积极信号，南 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - **Oils and Fats**: Overall, there are more bearish factors. The upward trend of soybean oil is expected to slow down. For rapeseed oil, the near - term fundamentals are tight but supply has a large recovery expectation. Palm oil has both positive and negative factors, and it can be considered to go long after the market stabilizes. - **Beans and Meal**: The supply of beans in China is sufficient, and the price of soybean meal is expected to remain weak. Opportunities to short soybean meal and soybeans No.2 can be considered. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure, but the domestic market has support. A bullish approach is recommended in the short - term. - **Soybeans No.1**: The valuation is not low and the upward drive is insufficient. It may continue to be weak in the short - term. - **Hogs**: The near - term spot pressure is relieved, and the far - month contract has a premium over the near - term. Investors can consider holding long positions in the far - month. - **Eggs**: Consumption is expected to improve, and supply pressure is relieved to some extent. Aggressive investors can consider going long in some contracts [1][2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation a. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybeans No.1 05 | Loosening of traders' price - holding attitude, cautious downstream purchases | 4200 - 4250 | 4400 - 4420 | Sideways adjustment | Temporary wait - and - see | | | Soybeans No.2 05 | Sufficient domestic soybean supply, good growth of South American soybeans | 3380 - 3400 | 3500 - 3530 | Weak adjustment | Bearish operation | | Oils | Soybean Oil 05 | Weakness of adjacent oils, sufficient domestic supply | 7850 - 7880 | 8080 - 8100 | Sideways adjustment | Temporary wait - and - see | | | Rapeseed Oil 05 | Near - term fundamentals are tight but supply may recover | 8700 - 8720 | 9120 - 9150 | Sideways adjustment | Short at high prices | | | Palm Oil 05 | Support from US biodiesel policy and Malaysian palm oil exports, but high inventory suppresses prices | 8300 - 8350 | 8950 - 9000 | Sideways movement | Go long after stabilization | | Protein | Soybean Meal 05 | Sufficient supply, large far - month transactions | 2600 - 2650 | 2780 - 2800 | Sideways decline | Bearish operation | | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | Bearish sentiment due to Sino - Canadian talks | 2190 - 2200 | 2340 - 2350 | Sideways adjustment | Bearish operation | | Energy and By - products | Corn 03 | Support from the decline of high - quality corn supply | 2160 - 2170 | 2330 - 2350 | Support exists | Bullish approach | | | Corn Starch 03 | Follows the cost of corn and has support | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Support exists | Bullish approach | | Livestock | Hogs 03 | Feed price rebounds, strong expectation of capacity reduction | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Bottom - hunting in sideways | Light - position trial long | | | Eggs 05 | Decrease in new production and expectation of consumption peak | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Bottom - hunting in sideways | Buy at low prices | [9] b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Most varieties are recommended for wait - and - see, while for corn 3 - 5, it is recommended to short at high prices. - **Inter - variety Spread**: For some oil spreads and oil - meal ratios, it is recommended to take corresponding bullish or bearish operations, and some are recommended for wait - and - see [10][11]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The text provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors [12]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and operation rate data of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanut, and peanut oil [17]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and arrival duty - paid costs [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as deep - processing enterprise consumption, inventory, operation rate, and farmers' grain - selling progress [18]. c. Livestock It provides daily and weekly data of hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and some key market data such as production cost, profit, and slaughter data [18][19][20][21]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts It includes various charts related to the livestock end (hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds, and feed end, which help to track the market fundamentals of different varieties [22][31][47]. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of historical volatility and trading volume of options for various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, and corn [98][99]. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of warehouse receipt quantities and position volumes of various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [103][104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft - commodity and fresh - fruit sectors present complex market situations. For sugar, the global supply is abundant, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures may be range - bound. For pulp, the supply pressure is easing, but the upside is limited. For double - offset paper, the short - term demand is supported by publication orders, but the long - term demand is under pressure. For cotton, the short - term price may adjust slightly, and the medium - to - long - term price is expected to rise. For apples, the long - term price has support, but the short - term may be adjusted at a high level. For jujubes, the market is moving towards a balance of supply and demand, and the futures price may be volatile [4][5][6][8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh - Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. For Jujube 2605, it is recommended to buy on dips, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [19]. - **Soft - Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2605, it is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 5200 - 5220 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5380. For Pulp 2605, it is recommended to be bearish in the range, with a support range of 5300 - 5350 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5700. For Double - Offset Paper 2605, it is recommended to operate in the range, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4300 - 4350. For Cotton 2605, it is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market Situation - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of January 15, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 6.5557 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 488,000 tons [20]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong and Shaanxi production areas, the mainstream prices were stable. In the sales areas, the sales volume increased slightly over the weekend, and the mainstream prices remained stable [20][21]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market Situation As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market is expected to enter a peak sales period [22]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market Situation - As of the week of January 13, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 165,711 contracts, indicating strong bearish sentiment. - As of January 15, 2026, the cumulative sugarcane crushing in India was 176.374 million tons, and the sugar production was 15.885 million tons, both higher than the same period last year. - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of January 17, the cumulative sugarcane crushing in Thailand was 29.2643 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.09%, and the sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. - In 2025, the actual arrival volume of out - of - quota raw sugar in China was 2.2161 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2823 million tons [24]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market As of December 31, the pulp price was stable. In January, the price of BHK pulp shipped to China and other Asian markets was increased by $20/ton, and large enterprises' purchases tightened the supply and pushed up the price [27]. 3.2.5 Double - Offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand was still weak, and the overall inventory pressure increased. The operating load rate was 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points, and the increase rate expanded by 0.23 percentage points [28]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In December, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% and a month - on - month increase of 7.72%. The cumulative retail sales from January to December were 1.5215 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. - In December 2025, China's cotton import volume was 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. - India's Cotton Corporation started selling new cotton in the 2025/26 season on January 19, 2026 [29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9345, down 196 or 2.05%. - Jujube 2605 closed at 8815, down 60 or 0.68%. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5244, down 14 or 0.27%. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5362, unchanged. - Cotton 2605 closed at 14545, down 45 or 0.31% [30]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.45 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of sugar was 5350 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and down 560 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 1000 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 500 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of cotton was 15,880 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan month - on - month and up 1104 yuan year - on - year [36]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis provided in the summary, but relevant basis charts are presented, including Apple 5 - month basis, Jujube main - contract basis, etc. [51][52][54]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - For apples, the 5 - 10 spread was 1370, unchanged month - on - month and up 1890 year - on - year, with an expected bullish trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips. - For jujubes, the 5 - 9 spread was - 240, down 5 month - on - month and up 60 year - on - year, and it is recommended to wait and see. - For sugar, the 5 - 9 spread was - 16, down 7 month - on - month and down 140 year - on - year, and it is recommended to wait and see. - For cotton, the 5 - 9 spread was - 165, down 10 month - on - month and down 10 year - on - year, with an expected bearish trend, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [58]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation Relevant charts show the top 20 rankings of long and short positions, trading volume, and net long and net short changes for apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary [64][66][70]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - The number of jujube warehouse receipts was 3298, up 27 month - on - month and down 706 year - on - year. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 14,126, unchanged month - on - month and down 7939 year - on - year. - The number of pulp warehouse receipts was 139,584, down 9550 month - on - month and down 204,546 year - on - year. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 9658, down 8 month - on - month and up 3164 year - on - year [87]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple Options**: Relevant charts show trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility. - **Sugar Options**: The charts show trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility. - **Cotton Options**: The charts show trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility. No specific data analysis is provided in the summary [90][94][99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The non - ferrous metals sector is generally strong but shows differentiation and rotation. Stronger varieties are undergoing adjustments, while weaker ones are making up for losses. The sector is supported by factors such as a loose monetary environment, AI technological development, increased attention to the critical mineral supply chain, resource nationalism in resource - rich countries, and geopolitical uncertainties. However, with the easing of the Iran situation and the US suspension of new tariffs on key minerals, leading varieties are experiencing some adjustments [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector remains strong under the influence of multiple factors. But due to the easing of the Iran situation and the US suspension of new tariffs on key minerals, the sector shows rotation. China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery, and the new energy vehicle and automobile export markets are expected to grow in 2026. Overseas data shows mixed economic signals in the US, with the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in April rising [11]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: Consider gradually buying on dips. The short - term upper pressure range is 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton. Optionally, buy out - of - the - money long - term call options [3]. - **Zinc**: Hold long positions. The upper pressure is around 25,500 - 25,600 yuan/ton, and the short - term lower support is around 24,300 - 24,400 yuan/ton. Consider selling call options for hedging when the price surges [4]. - **Aluminum and Its Industrial Chain**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for aluminum. For alumina, consider shorting at high prices. For recycled aluminum alloy, adopt a bullish approach. Use out - of - the - money put options for protection [5]. - **Tin**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines or adopt a bullish approach before the capital enthusiasm fades. Pay attention to the mining end and macro - factors. The upper pressure range is 440,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 330,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to remain volatile. Consider selling both call and put options. The short - term lower support is around 17,000 - 17,200 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is around 17,600 - 17,800 yuan/ton [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, trade in the short - term with light positions. Use covered call options to protect long positions. For stainless steel, adopt a bullish approach on dips. The lower support for nickel is around 137,000 - 138,000 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is around 150,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton. The lower support for stainless steel is around 13,900 - 14,000 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is around 14,500 - 14,600 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Copper closed at 102,810 yuan/ton, down 1.26%; zinc at 25,090 yuan/ton, up 2.51%; aluminum at 24,375 yuan/ton, down 0.89%; alumina at 2,789 yuan/ton, down 0.39%; tin at 433,000 yuan/ton, up 4.80%; lead at 17,550 yuan/ton, up 0.95%; nickel at 146,750 yuan/ton, up 4.12%; stainless steel at 14,415 yuan/ton, up 3.52%; and cast aluminum alloy at 23,155 yuan/ton, down 0.96% [19]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report provides the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for various varieties such as Shanghai Silver, Shanghai Tin, Platinum, etc. [22]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report presents the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - This part contains various charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price comparisons for copper, zinc, aluminum, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][26][30]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report includes charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage, such as the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and price differences between different contracts for copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [51][53][55]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - It provides charts about non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest changes for copper, zinc, and aluminum [67][69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity and fresh fruit sectors present complex market conditions with varying supply - demand dynamics and price trends. Each commodity has its own unique market logic and trading strategies, and investors need to make decisions based on these factors[3][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, it's recommended to hold long positions cautiously with support at 8800 - 8900 and pressure at 11000 - 11500. For Red Date 2605, short - term long positions are recommended with support at 8700 - 9000 and pressure at 9500 - 9800[19]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2605, light - position short - term long positions are recommended with support at 5200 - 5230 and pressure at 5350 - 5380. For Pulp 2605, trading within the range with a bearish bias is advised, with support at 5300 - 5350 and pressure at 5550 - 5700. For Offset Printing Paper 2605, range trading is recommended with support at 4000 - 4100 and pressure at 4300 - 4350. For Cotton 2605, hold long positions cautiously with support at 13500 - 13600 and pressure at 15400 - 15500[19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, fresh apple exports were about 121,600 tons, up 51.28% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year. As of January 15, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 655,570 tons, down 17800 tons week - on - week and 48800 tons year - on - year[20]. - **Spot Market**: This week, the mainstream transaction prices in production areas were stable, with increased cold - storage transactions and packaging. In Shandong, the cold - storage prices were stable, and the number of buyers increased. In Shaanxi, the prices were stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume increased. In the sales areas, the arrival volume was similar to last week, the overall sales were stable, and citrus had an impact on apple sales[20][21][22]. 3.2.2 Red Date Market As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, down 349 tons week - on - week (2.23%) and up 41.27% year - on - year. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market is expected to enter a peak sales period with the approaching of the festival[23]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market - In 2025, the actual arrival of out - quota raw sugar in China was 2.2161 million tons, up 1.2823 million tons year - on - year. - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of January 12, Thailand's sugar production decreased by 21.18% year - on - year, and Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of January increased by 1.86% year - on - year[25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market In December, the pulp price was stable. Some companies raised the price of BHK sent to China and other Asian markets by $20/ton, and two large pulp and paper integrated enterprises' purchases tightened the supply and pushed up the price[30]. 3.2.5 Offset Printing Paper Market The inventory days increased by 0.76% compared to last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand was weak, and the overall inventory pressure increased. The operating rate was 55.24%, up 1.02 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate expanded by 0.23 percentage points[31]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In December 2025, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports increased by 22.94% month - on - month and 8.35% year - on - year. - India's cotton production in the 2025 - 2026 season is expected to increase slightly by 2.4%[32]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: Apple 2605 closed at 9807, down 1.28%; Red Date 2605 closed at 9040, down 0.99%; Sugar 2605 closed at 5280, down 0.36%; Pulp 2605 closed at 5436, down 1.06%; Cotton 2605 closed at 14675, down 0.91%[32]. - **Spot Market**: Apple was 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.45 yuan year - on - year; Red Date was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year; Sugar was 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 590 yuan year - on - year; Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 1000 yuan year - on - year; Offset Printing Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 500 yuan year - on - year; Cotton was 15972 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan month - on - month and 1235 yuan year - on - year[40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description of the basis situation, only references to relevant figures are provided[52][55][57]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread is 1402, with a negative month - on - month change of 39 and a positive year - on - year change of 1913, expected to be volatile and strong, and it's recommended to buy on dips. - Red Date 5 - 9 spread is - 215, with a negative month - on - month change of 25 and a positive year - on - year change of 95, and it's recommended to wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread is - 11, with a negative month - on - month change of 6 and a negative year - on - year change of 113, and it's recommended to wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread is - 150, with a negative month - on - month change of 30 and a positive year - on - year change of 20, expected to be volatile and weak, and it's recommended to sell on rallies[60]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation There is no specific text description of the futures position situation, only references to relevant figures are provided[67][71][86]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Red Date: 3211 warehouse receipts, up 232 month - on - month and down 759 year - on - year. - Sugar: 14126 warehouse receipts, up 4387 month - on - month and down 7939 year - on - year. - Pulp: 149134 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and down 196294 year - on - year. - Cotton: 9329 warehouse receipts, up 493 month - on - month and up 2812 year - on - year[93]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description of the option - related data, only references to relevant figures are provided[96][101][107].

养殖油脂研究中心|农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月18日星期日 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链周度策略报告 摘要 豆油：本周，豆油主力合约上涨，主要在于库存下滑及美国生柴政 策预期向好。加拿大总理访华，市场预期中加贸易关系或有缓和迹 象，印尼维持B4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price is under pressure due to India's increased sugar production and global oversupply, but there may be support during the Brazilian off - season and the Ramadan stocking period. It is recommended to wait and see and consider double - selling out - of - the - money options [4]. - The pulp market has limited upside space before further overseas supply cuts or new production cut news, and the 2605 contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [4]. - The double - offset paper price is under pressure due to weakened cost support, but the widening basis may support the futures price. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see [5][6]. - The cotton futures price may adjust narrowly in the short term and is expected to move up in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [7]. - The apple futures price may adjust at a high level in the short term and is expected to be supported in the medium term. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - The jujube futures price is oscillating at a low level and may rise. Aggressive investors can hold reverse spreads or long positions with protective puts [9][10]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fruit Futures**: - Apple 2605: Reduce long positions. The supply has medium - term support but the marginal driving force is decreasing. The support interval is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure interval is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - Jujube 2605: Reduce short positions. The spot market has entered the consumption peak season, and inventory has peaked and started to decline. The support interval is 8900 - 9000, and the pressure interval is 9300 - 9700 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: - Sugar 2605: Wait and see. There are differences in China's sugar production rate, and the international market supply is still sufficient. The support interval is 5200 - 5230, and the pressure interval is 5350 - 5380 [18]. - Pulp 2605: Try short - allocation. The impact of supply bullish factors is weakening, and the downstream paper products are in the off - season. The short - term pulp price is under pressure, but the low point of the futures price follows the rising cost of warehouse receipts. The support interval is 5300 - 5350, and the pressure interval is 5550 - 5600 [18]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Wait and see. The fundamental situation has not changed much. The short - term futures price fluctuates with the pulp price, and the widening basis supports the double - offset paper futures price. The support interval is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure interval is 4300 - 4400 [18]. - Cotton 2605: Reduce long positions. There is a game between strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures price is expected to move up. The support interval is 13500 - 13500, and the pressure interval is 15400 - 15500 [18]. Part 2: Plate Weekly Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: - Apple 2605: The closing price is 9541, down 148 (- 1.53%) for the week [19]. - Jujube 2605: The closing price is 8875, down 275 (- 3.01%) for the week [19]. - Sugar 2605: The closing price is 5258, down 30 (- 0.57%) for the week [19]. - Pulp 2605: The closing price is 5362, down 188 (- 3.39%) for the week [19]. - Double - offset Paper 2602: The closing price is 4048, down 148 (- 3.53%) for the week [19]. - Cotton 2605: The closing price is 14590, down 85 (- 0.58%) for the week [19]. - **Spot Market Review**: - Apple: The spot price is 4.70 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous period and an increase of 0.45 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Jujube: The spot price is 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan from the previous period and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Sugar: The spot price is 5360 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 550 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Pulp: The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp is 5550 yuan, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 1000 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Cotton: The spot price is 15931 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan from the previous period and an increase of 1182 yuan year - on - year [24]. Part 3: Plate Basis Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references [29][30]. Part 4: Inter - month Spread Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references [34][36]. Part 5: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: The number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no change from the previous period and no change year - on - year [42]. - Jujube: The number of warehouse receipts is 3271, an increase of 60 from the previous period and a decrease of 699 year - on - year [42]. - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts is 14126, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 7939 year - on - year [42]. - Pulp: The number of warehouse receipts is 149134, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 196156 year - on - year [42]. - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts is 9666, an increase of 337 from the previous period and an increase of 3166 year - on - year [42]. - Cotton Yarn: The number of warehouse receipts is 70, with no change from the previous period and an increase of 7 year - on - year [42]. Part 6: Option - related Data - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: - Apple 2605: Sell out - of - the - money put options as the bullish factors have been partially realized, and the futures price is in the high - level range [45]. - Jujube 2605: Sell deep out - of - the - money call options as new jujubes are concentrated on the market and the spot inventory is high [45]. - Sugar 2605: Consider double - selling call and put options as there are differences in China's sugar production and the international market supply is in surplus [45]. - Cotton 2605: Sell out - of - the - money put options as there is a game between strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures price is expected to move up [45]. - Pulp 2605: Sell put options with an exercise price of 4900 and call options with an exercise price of 5300 as there is cost support but weak upward fundamental driving force [45]. - **Option Data Figures**: There are figures for option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, historical volatility, and implied volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton, but no specific text summary [46][48][54]. Part 7: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation - **Apple**: - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas**: There are figures for minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific text summary [56]. - **Export Situation**: There is a figure for apple export volume, but no specific text summary [59]. - **Inventory Situation**: There are figures for China's weekly apple storage inventory, as well as in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific text summary [60]. - **Jujube**: There are figures for jujube trading volume in Henan and Hebei and the arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang Market, but no specific text summary [61]. - **Sugar**: There are figures for national sugar industrial inventory, monthly import volume, and the spot - futures spread, but no specific text summary [63][65][67]. - **Pulp**: There are figures for domestic pulp inventory, global producer inventory days, paper product weekly production, and pulp import volume, but no specific text summary [71][75][76]. - **Double - offset Paper**: There are figures for double - offset paper capacity utilization, production, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption, but no specific text summary [78]. - **Cotton**: There are figures for retail sales, inventory, and consumption data in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and textile industry data, but no specific text summary [81][82][88].

Report Information - **Authors**: Yang Lina, Hu Bin, Liang Haikuan [1] - **Date**: January 14, 2026 [2] - **Investment Advisory License**: Beijing Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2012] No. 75 [2] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals is strong but slightly differentiated. In a relatively loose monetary environment, driven by factors such as AI technology development, increased attention to the key mineral supply chain, and enhanced supply uncertainties of strategic resources due to rising nationalism in resource - rich countries and geopolitical disturbances, the sector remains strong, though there are fluctuations in market sentiment. The lower - than - expected US CPI data boosts the expectation of a rate cut in April, and the market continues to show relatively warm fluctuations [12]. - China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery. China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year in December, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2026 is expected to reach 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%, and automobile exports are expected to reach 7.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.3% [12]. - Overseas data shows that the number of new non - farm jobs in the US in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. Traders almost eliminated their bets on a rate cut in January. The preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in January reached a four - month high. The core CPI growth rate in December was lower than expected, and traders increased their bets on a mid - year rate cut [12]. Summary by Directory Part I: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is generally strong with a slightly differentiated trend. The sector remains strong under the influence of a loose monetary environment, AI development, and geopolitical factors. The lower - than - expected US CPI boosts the April rate - cut expectation. China's foreign trade recovers, and the new energy vehicle and automobile export markets are promising. Overseas, the US employment and inflation data affect market rate - cut expectations [12]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Metal** - **Copper**: Try to gradually buy on dips. The short - term upper pressure range is around 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is around 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options [4]. - **Zinc**: Follow the overall sector trend. The upper pressure is around 24,500 - 24,800, and the short - term lower support is around 23,600 - 23,800 [5]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, adopt a bullish approach. The upper pressure range is 25,000 - 27,000, and the lower support range is 22,000 - 22,300. For alumina, maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies. The upper pressure range is 2,900 - 3,000, and the lower support range is 2,000 - 2,200. For recycled aluminum alloy, adopt a bullish approach. The upper pressure range is 24,000 - 26,000, and the lower support range is 21,000 - 21,500 [6]. - **Tin**: Adopt a bullish approach before the capital enthusiasm fades. The upper pressure range is 430,000 - 450,000, and the lower support range is 330,000 - 350,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [7]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to remain in an overall oscillatory pattern. The short - term lower support is around 17,000 - 17,200, and the upper resistance is around 17,600 - 17,800 [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, trade in short - term bands with light positions. The upper resistance is around 146,000 - 150,000 yuan, and the lower support is around 137,000 - 138,000 yuan. For stainless steel, the lower support is around 13,300 - 13,400, and the upper resistance is around 13,800 - 14,200 [9]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 104,120 | 1.79% | | Zinc | 24,475 | 0.99% | | Aluminum | 24,595 | 0.90% | | Alumina | 2,800 | 0.72% | | Tin | 413,170 | 8.92% | | Lead | 17,385 | 0.43% | | Nickel | 140,940 | 1.80% | | Stainless Steel | 13,925 | 0.98% | | Cast Aluminum Alloy | 23,380 | 0.93% | [19] Part III: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis | Variety | Change Rate | Net Long - Short Strength | Net Long - Short Position Difference | Net Long Change | Net Short Change | Influencing Factors | Sector | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Silver (AG2604) | 8.03% | Strong long - position by main players | 28,858 | 8,527 | 2,518 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Tin (SN2602) | 8.00% | Strong short - position by main players | - 1,587 | 3,312 | 2,168 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Platinum (PT2606) | 3.67% | Strong short - position by main players | - 6,164 | - 51 | 505 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Gold (AU2602) | 1.07% | Strong long - position by main players | 44,062 | 5,965 | 269 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Copper (CU2603) | 0.85% | Strong short - position by main players | - 12,022 | 10,878 | 10,384 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Zinc (ZN2603) | 0.51% | Strong long - position by main players | 4,889 | 4,248 | 4,101 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Industrial Silicon (SI2605) | 0.34% | Strong short - position by main players | - 15,966 | 2,170 | - 8,250 | Short - position decrease by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Aluminum (AL2603) | - 0.06% | Strong short - position by main players | - 27,898 | 2,269 | - 4,016 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Nickel (NI2602) | - 0.11% | Strong short - position by main players | - 17,247 | 1,418 | - 4,872 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Lead (PB2603) | - 0.17% | Strong long - position by main players | 2,859 | 3,006 | 3,648 | Short - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Aluminum Alloy (AD2603) | - 0.21% | Strong short - position by main players | - 376 | 20 | 238 | Short - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Alumina (AO2605) | - 0.28% | Strong short - position by main players | - 123,283 | 8,091 | - 22,032 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Polysilicon (PS2605) | - 1.46% | Strong long - position by main players | 242 | 188 | - 892 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Lithium Carbonate (LC2605) | - 3.53% | Strong short - position by main players | - 93,289 | - 740 | 12,009 | Short - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | [22] Part IV: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The report provides the spot prices and change rates of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [23]. Part V: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain The report includes various charts related to the industry chain of each metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [25][26][29] Part VI: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage The report presents charts related to the arbitrage of each metal, including price ratios and basis spreads [51][53][55] Part VII: Non - ferrous Metals Options The report provides charts related to the options of each metal, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume and open interest [67][69][71]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The market anticipates a potential easing of China-Canada trade relations, which has led to a decline in vegetable oil products and dragged down the price of soybean oil. The price trend of palm oil has slowed down due to mixed factors. The inventory of soybean oil has decreased, but the supply at the raw material end is relatively sufficient, and its fundamentals are not strong. It is expected that palm oil will be stronger than soybean oil, which will be stronger than rapeseed oil. Attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities among oils and fats [1]. - The RMOB report in December was slightly bearish but had limited impact. The export demand for Malaysian palm oil in December exceeded expectations and showed an upward trend. Recent institutional data also indicated a recovery in exports. As the traditional New Year in India approaches in February, the peak-season export demand may gradually become the focus of market trading. In the medium and long term, factors such as the planting area and tree age structure in the main producing regions, as well as Indonesian policies, still pose potential concerns for the supply side this year, while there are still expectations for the biodiesel policy on the demand side. In the short term, the bearish factors may have been exhausted. With the approaching of the consumption peak season, a strategy of buying on dips is currently considered [2]. - The market is still digesting the bearish impact of the USDA supply and demand report in January, and the price of US soybeans has continued to weaken. The trading volume of the basis of domestic distant-month soybean meal has increased significantly, mainly because the oil mills have good crushing profits and have lowered their quotes to lock in profits in advance, which is expected to have a bearish impact on the distant-month soybean meal. The South American soybean harvest is imminent, and the bearish factors for soybean products are expected to continue. Recently, most of the imported soybeans in the auctions have been fully sold, alleviating the previous market concerns about the supply from February to April. With sufficient supply, soybean meal is expected to be more likely to decline than to rise. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities for soybean meal and soybean No. 2. Selling out-of-the-money call options can also be considered, and a 3 - 5 calendar spread operation can be considered [3]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply and Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 05 | Farmers and middlemen are holding out for higher prices, but downstream buyers are cautious. The valuation is not low, and there is limited upward momentum. | 4060 - 4080 | 4450 - 4460 | Sideways adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 2 05 | The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the growth of South American soybeans is in good condition, and soybean auctions have resumed. | 3400 - 3450 | 3540 - 3550 | Sideways adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 05 | The international oil market is weak, and the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient. | 7850 - 7900 | 8080 - 8100 | Sideways adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil 05 | Australian rapeseeds have not entered the crushing stage yet, and the domestic inventory continues to decline. However, the expected increase in supply and the global bumper harvest still put pressure on prices. | 8650 - 8700 | 9300 - 9350 | Sideways adjustment | Bearish approach | | Oils | Palm Oil 05 | Short-term bearish factors may have been exhausted, and the consumption peak season is approaching. | 8300 - 8350 | 8950 - 9000 | Sideways with an upward bias | Buy on dips | | Protein | Soybean Meal 05 | The supply is sufficient, the demand is still resilient, and the auction of imported soybeans has started. The trading volume of distant-month soybean meal by oil mills has increased significantly. | 2680 - 2700 | 2800 - 2820 | Sideways decline | Bearish operation | | Protein | Rapeseed Meal 05 | The inventory is at a low level and continues to decline, but the fundamentals are still expected to be bearish. | 2270 - 2280 | 2440 - 2450 | Sideways adjustment | Bearish approach | | Energy and By-products | Corn 03 | There is still support from the decline in the supply of high-quality corn. However, the wheat auction and the sales of central reserve corn have limited pressure on the market. The futures price may have support in the short term. | 2160 - 2170 | 2330 - 2350 | Supported | Bullish approach | | Energy and By-products | Starch 03 | It follows the cost of corn and has support. | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Supported | Bullish approach | | Livestock | Live Hogs 03 | Feed prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthening. | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Bottom-finding in a sideways range | Lightly go long on a trial basis | | Livestock | Eggs 05 | The number of newly opened laying hens has decreased, and there is an expectation of a consumption peak season. | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Bottom-finding in a sideways range | Buy on dips | [10] 2. Commodity Arbitrage | Sector | Spread Type | Current Value | Previous Value | Change | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 3 - 5 | -37 | -34 | -3 | Wait and see | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 2 3 - 5 | 325 | 304 | 21 | Calendar spread (buy near and sell far) | | Oils | Soybean Oil 5 - 9 | 138 | 144 | -6 | Wait and see | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9 | 19 | 31 | -12 | Wait and see | | Oils | Palm Oil 1 - 5 | -68 | -98 | 30 | Wait and see | | Protein | Soybean Meal 3 - 5 | 358 | 356 | 2 | Calendar spread (buy near and sell far) | | Protein | Rapeseed Meal 3 - 5 | 93 | 91 | 2 | Wait and see | | Energy and By-products | Corn 3 - 5 | -3 | 7 | -10 | Short on rallies | | Energy and By-products | Starch 3 - 5 | -37 | -30 | -7 | Wait and see | | Livestock | Live Hogs 3 - 5 | -250 | -375 | 125 | Wait and see | | Livestock | Eggs 3 - 5 | -553 | -571 | 18 | Wait and see | | Oils | 05 Soybean Oil - Palm Oil | -748 | -792 | 44 | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | 05 Rapeseed Oil - Soybean Oil | 949 | 1031 | -82 | Bearish operation | | Oils | 05 Rapeseed Oil - Palm Oil | 207 | 221 | -14 | Bearish operation | | Protein | 05 Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal | 462 | 447 | 15 | Temporarily wait and see | | Oil - Meal Ratio | 05 Soybean Oil - Meal Ratio | 2.91 | 2.89 | 0.02 | Temporarily wait and see | | Oil - Meal Ratio | 05 Rapeseed Oil - Meal Ratio | 3.91 | 3.90 | 0.01 | Temporarily wait and see | | Energy and By-products | 05 Corn - Starch | -305 | -314 | 9 | Temporarily wait and see | [11][12] 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Basis of the Main Contract | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 4080 | 4080 | -243 | 94 | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 2 | 3980 | 3980 | 477 | 19 | | Oilseeds | Peanuts | 7400 | 7400 | -342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean Oil | 8560 | 8560 | 570 | 6 | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil | 9750 | -100 | 801 | -35 | | Oils | Palm Oil | 8850 | -50 | 102 | -20 | | Protein | Soybean Meal | 3120 | -20 | 429 | 429 | | Protein | Rapeseed Meal | 2370 | -20 | 81 | 5 | | Energy and By-products | Corn | 2310 | 10 | 47 | 11 | | Energy and By-products | Starch | 2610 | 0 | 85 | 13 | | Livestock | Live Hogs | 12.74 (yuan/kg) | 0.01 (yuan/kg) | 990 | -215 | | Livestock | Eggs | 3.16 (yuan/jin) | 0.05 (yuan/jin) | 593 | 33 | [13] Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds (1) Daily Data - The table shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including the CNF price, import duty-paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [15][16]. (2) Weekly Data | Variety | Inventory (Change) | Operating Rate | | --- | --- | --- | | Soybeans | Port soybeans: 837.25 (-4.86) | 53.00% | | Soybean Meal | Oil mill soybean meal: 104.40 (-12.62) | 3.00% | | Soybean Oil | Port soybean oil: 98.00 (-4.10) | - | | Rapeseeds | Coastal oil mill rapeseeds: 6.00 (6.00); Coastal rapeseed meal: 0.00 (0.00); East China commercial rapeseed oil: 26.70 (0.00) | 28.03% (0.00%) | | Palm Oil | Inventory: 74 (0) | - | | Peanuts | Peanut inventory: 129285 (-490); Peanut oil inventory: 48080 (1162) | 43.51% (5.78%) | [17][18] 2. Feed (1) Daily Data The table shows the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including the CNF price and the import duty-paid cost [18]. (2) Weekly Data | Indicator Name | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Deep - processing enterprise corn consumption (10,000 tons) | 123.47 | -1.29 | -3.80 | | Deep - processing enterprise corn inventory (10,000 tons) | 354.00 | 4.60 | -240.70 | | Starch enterprise operating rate (%) | 59.37 | -0.49 | -7.65 | | Starch enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | 112.50 | 0.20 | 112.50 | | Grain sales progress of farmers at the grass - roots level (%) | 50.00 | 47.00 | 2.00 | [19] 3. Livestock - The table shows the daily spot prices of live hogs and eggs in different regions, as well as the weekly key data of live hogs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, and other indicators [19][20][21][22] Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - The report includes a series of fundamental tracking charts for the livestock (live hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, covering aspects such as prices, inventories, operating rates, and spreads [23][24][25] Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - The report shows the historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [95][96][97] Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - The report shows the warehouse receipt situation of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live hogs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the live hog index and the egg index [101][102][103]