农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月10日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶日度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】春节长假节前一周，资金调仓带动市场宽幅震荡，金 属板块多头资金集中调仓，流动性及杠杆效应引发商品系统性调整 ，橡胶期价在前高附近剧烈震荡，上周海外美国1月挑战者企业裁 员人数10.8万，为自2009年以来最高的年初数据；美国12月职位空 缺录得654.2万人，为2020年9月以来新低；数据端开始显示出经济 的弱势，市场的降息预期有所回升。上海全乳胶周均价16030元/ 吨，周环比-60；青岛市场20号泰标周均价1950美元/吨，周环比- 6；青岛市场20号泰混周均价15168元/吨，周 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][3][16] Group 2: Core Views - The overall supply of sugar remains relatively abundant, and the price is likely to move downward. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures should be temporarily observed. [3] - Pulp is dragged down by the downstream off - season, but the probability of the pulp futures price falling below 5000 in the short term is low. It is recommended to short - allocate in the short - term. [4] - The cost support for double - offset paper is weakening, and the price increase is limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis. [5] - The domestic cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in the 05 contract. [6] - The supply - side support for apples remains, and the price may continue to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at lows. [7] - For jujubes, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract, and long - position holders can buy protective put options. [8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Apple 2605**: Reduce long positions. The supply - side support remains, but the commodity sentiment is volatile. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500. [16] - **Jujube 2605**: Buy on dips in the short - term. The expected yield reduction may be reflected in the distant months, and the spot inventory is peaking. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800. [16] - **Sugar 2605**: Sell on rebounds. The global sugar supply is still in excess, and the domestic supply is in the peak season. The support range is 5070 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5320. [16] - **Pulp 2605**: Allocate long positions lightly. Downstream is in the off - season, and there is cost support. The support range is 5130 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5360 - 5400. [16] - **Double - offset paper 2605**: Operate within the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand is in the off - season. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300. [16] - **Cotton 2605**: Reduce long positions. The long - term bullish expectation remains, but the external price is bottom - seeking. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500. [16] 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market Situation - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 5,635,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 375,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 554,900 tons. [17] - **Spot Market Situation**: In Shandong, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples is stable. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage trading is decreasing. In the sales areas, the arrival volume has increased significantly, and the sales are okay with stable prices. [17][18][19] 3.2.2 Jujube Market Situation - As of February 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,888 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year increase of 12.84%. The inventory is decreasing, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end. [20] 3.2.3 Sugar Market Situation - From the start of the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to the first half of January, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 345,000 tons. As of the week of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 210,289 contracts, showing strong bearish sentiment. [23] 3.2.4 Pulp Market - Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The price of resold BSK has fallen, and the import price of NBSK has also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remain stable. [26] 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market - The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The operating load rate was 57.43%, with a slight increase and a narrowing increase rate. The industry's destocking speed has decreased. [27] 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In January, Bangladesh imported about 125,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. As of the week of February 7, the net signed export volume of Egyptian cotton decreased by 52.8% week - on - week, and the shipment volume increased by 94.0% week - on - week. [28] 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9500 | - 17 | - 0.18% | | Jujube 2605 | 8670 | - 55 | - 0.63% | | Sugar 2605 | 5278 | 17 | 0.32% | | Pulp 2605 | 5202 | 2 | 0.04% | | Cotton 2605 | 14655 | 75 | 0.51% | [29] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5330 | 20 | - 630 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5300 | 0 | - 1400 | | Double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15988 | 21 | 1181 | [35] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation - Relevant basis data for apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are presented in the form of figures, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. [45][49][50][52][54] 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1280 | - 38 | 1909 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 250 | - 10 | 160 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 10 | 3 | - 139 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 115 | 10 | 50 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs | [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - The top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are presented in figures, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. [63][64][68][74][82] 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 3546 | 196 | - 526 | | Sugar | 14461 | 0 | - 9526 | | Pulp | 146427 | - 20 | - 193557 | | Cotton | 10686 | 106 | 3951 | [89] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - Option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility data for apple, sugar, and cotton are presented in figures, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. [91][92][100][105]

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月09日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 上周末美联储态度再度转鸽，引发全球资产价格集体反弹，沪铜重 新站稳10万关口上方。特朗普拟设120亿美元关键矿产战略储备， 储备范围覆盖稀土和关键矿产，未来铜作为战略资源有望获得进一 步溢价。美国1月份制造业活动意外扩张，创下2022年以来 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of sugar remains abundant, with a likely downward trend in price. For the Zhengzhou sugar main contract 05, consider short - selling on rebounds [3]. - The pulp market is affected by the downstream off - season. Although the cost of warehouse receipts has increased, the pulp futures are under short - term pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. - The cost support for double - offset paper has weakened, and the spot price is relatively stable. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis, and it is advisable to try short - selling in the short term [5]. - The domestic cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in the 05 contract [6]. - The apple futures price may continue to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [7]. - For the jujube 2605 contract, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points, and for long positions, consider buying protective put options. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part - Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - Apple 2605: Reduce long positions. The supply side still has support, but the overall commodity sentiment is volatile recently, and it may show a volatile trend in the short term. Support range: 8800 - 8900, pressure range: 11000 - 11500 [16]. - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short term. The expected production reduction may be gradually reflected in the distant months, and the spot inventory is starting to peak and decline. Support range: 8700 - 9000, pressure range: 9500 - 9800 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2605: Short - sell on rebounds. The global sugar supply is still in surplus, and the domestic sugar supply is in the peak season, with overall sufficient supply. Support range: 5070 - 5100, pressure range: 5300 - 5320 [16]. - Pulp 2605: Allocate long positions lightly. The downstream finished paper is in the off - season, and there is a lack of new supply - side利多 recently. However, the US dollar quotation remains stable, and the cost of warehouse receipts may support the short - term price. Support range: 5200 - 5300, pressure range: 5450 - 5500 [16]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Operate within a range. The spot market is stable, but demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. Support range: 4000 - 4100, pressure range: 4250 - 4300 [16]. - Cotton 2605: Reduce long positions. The long - term positive expectations still exist, and the medium - term support remains unchanged. However, the external market price is in a downward trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The short - term futures price may fluctuate. Support range: 13500 - 13600, pressure range: 15400 - 15500 [16]. 3.2 Second Part - Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 5.6351 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 375,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 554,900 tons [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong is stable. The Spring Festival stocking is basically over, and the price will remain stable before the Spring Festival. The mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruits in Qixia is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage trading is gradually decreasing. The mainstream price of 70 and above bagged Fuji in Luochuan is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty [17][18]. - **Jujube Market**: As of February 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,888 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.84%. Due to the scattered acquisition structure in the 2025 production season and the cautious market outlook for the new season after the Spring Festival, holders are more inclined to sell actively before the Spring Festival to reduce inventory pressure [20]. - **Sugar Market**: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, as of the first half of January, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 345,000 tons. As of the week of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 210,289 contracts, showing strong bearish sentiment in the market [22]. - **Pulp Market**: Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand for key resale products, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The price of resale BSK has fallen, and the spot price of imported NBSK has also declined. However, the prices of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remain stable [26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the growth rate also narrowed [27]. - **Cotton Market**: As of the end of January, the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 1.001 million tons, an increase of 17,200 tons from the previous month. The intended cotton - planting area in 2026 is 46.479 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 827,000 mu, a decrease of 1.7%. It is estimated that the total cotton output will be 7.275 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 452,000 tons, a decrease of 5.8% [28]. 3.3 Third Part - Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2605: Closing price of 9517, a daily decrease of 18, a daily decline rate of 0.19%. - Jujube 2605: Closing price of 8725, a daily increase of 30, a daily increase rate of 0.35%. - Sugar 2605: Closing price of 5261, a daily increase of 33, a daily increase rate of 0.63%. - Pulp 2605: Closing price of 5200, a daily decrease of 34, a daily decline rate of 0.65%. - Cotton 2605: Closing price of 14580, no daily change [29]. - **Spot Market Review** - Apple: Spot price of 4.45 yuan per catty, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. - Jujube: Spot price of 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. - Sugar: Spot price of 5310 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 640 yuan. - Pulp: Spot price of 5300 yuan (Shandong Yinxing), a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1400 yuan. - Double - offset Paper: Spot price of 4350 yuan (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin), no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan. - Cotton: Spot price of 15967 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 58 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1150 yuan [33]. 3.4 Fourth Part - Basis Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references such as apple 5 - month basis, jujube main contract basis, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part - Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread: Current value of 1280, a month - on - month decrease of 38, a year - on - year increase of 1909, expected to be volatile and strong, recommended strategy: buy on dips. - Jujube 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 240, a month - on - month decrease of 15, a year - on - year increase of 140, recommended strategy: wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 13, a month - on - month decrease of 2, a year - on - year decrease of 133, expected to be volatile, recommended strategy: wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 125, a month - on - month decrease of 5, a year - on - year increase of 40, expected to be volatile and weak, recommended strategy: short - sell on rallies [54]. 3.6 Sixth Part - Futures Positioning Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references for the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, etc. of each variety. 3.7 Seventh Part - Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - Jujube: 3350 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 722. - Sugar: 14461 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month increase of 87, a year - on - year decrease of 9667. - Pulp: 146447 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 193040. - Cotton: 10580 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month increase of 5, a year - on - year increase of 3815 [87]. 3.8 Eighth Part - Option - related Data No specific text summary information provided, only figure references for option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, etc. of apple, sugar, and cotton.

农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月09日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶日度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】春节长假节前一周，金属板块多头资金集中调仓，流 动性及杠杆效应引发商品系统性调整，橡胶期价在前高附近剧烈震 荡，上周海外美国1月挑战者企业裁员人数10.8万，为自2009年以 来最高的年初数据；美国12月职位空缺录得654.2万人，为2020年 9月以来新低；数据端开始显示出经济的弱势，市场的降息预期有 所回升。上海全乳胶周均价16030元/吨，周环比-60；青岛市场20 号泰标周均价1950美元/吨，周环比-6；青岛市场20号泰混周均价 15168元/吨，周环比-52/。海外产区进入 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: This week, the main soybean oil contract declined due to macro - and geopolitical disturbances. The domestic and international fundamental market logic of soybean oil has no obvious changes. The U.S. biodiesel policy has positive expectations, palm oil production areas are in a period of production reduction and inventory decline, and domestic oil inventories are decreasing. It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the future. It is advisable to consider long - position operations after the price stabilizes. The support level of the main 05 contract is 7950 - 8000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 8560 - 8600 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week, the main rapeseed oil contract fluctuated downward, mainly affected by the sharp drop in crude oil prices and news of rapeseed purchases. The supply is expected to turn loose, but the current low - margin on the futures market may provide some support after the price decline. As the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, market trading has become dull. It is advisable to wait and see before the holiday. The resistance range of the 05 contract is 9390 - 9400, and the support range is 8800 - 8810 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: This week, the main palm oil contract fluctuated downward, driven by the sharp drop in crude oil and the collective weakness of the oil and fat sector, and the departure of long - position holders due to increased risk - aversion sentiment. The latest biodiesel tax credit policy (45Z) announced by the IRS has strengthened the positive expectations for U.S. biodiesel, which may have an indirect positive impact on palm oil. The supply - demand situation in the first quarter has strong support. It is advisable to continue to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips. The resistance range of the main contract is 9370 - 9400, and the support range is 8880 - 8900 [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: This week, the prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 declined, mainly due to the general decline of commodities under the influence of macro - sentiment and geopolitical disturbances. The fundamentals are mixed. It is advisable to exit short - positions in soybean meal and wait and see. During the period of weather disturbances and the vacuum of biodiesel news, it is advisable to temporarily exit the oil - meal ratio arbitrage before the holiday [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: This week, rapeseed meal fluctuated downward. The supply is expected to turn loose, but the low - margin on the futures market limits the downward space of the price. The short - term driving force is limited, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider taking profit on previous short - positions [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main soybean No. 1 futures contract fluctuated at a high level. The market logic has no obvious changes. The stocking of domestic soybeans is coming to an end, market activity has decreased, and sentiment has weakened. It is advisable to exit long - positions and wait and see [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: This week, the futures prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate. The U.S. corn production and ending stocks are at a historical high, which constitutes the main market pressure. However, the good export performance of U.S. corn and the optimistic expectation of fuel ethanol have offset the negative impact to some extent. It is advisable to wait and see or pay attention to the opportunity of going long on far - month contracts on dips [4]. - **Pigs**: This week, approaching the Spring Festival, consumption entered the last peak. The spot price of pigs fluctuated slightly. The slaughter volume rebounded month - on - month. The futures price of pigs hit a new annual low, and the discount of the 03 contract to the spot price widened. It is advisable for cautious investors to exit the short - near - month and long - far - month reverse arbitrage opportunely, and for aggressive investors to buy the 2607 contract when the price falls below the breeding cost and sell deep - out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 15,000 points to reduce the cost of bottom - fishing [5]. - **Eggs**: Approaching the Spring Festival, domestic sales strengthened. The spot price of eggs rebounded slightly. After the Spring Festival, the egg price is expected to have a relatively limited seasonal decline. It is advisable for aggressive investors to buy the 2605 contract on dips, and it is necessary to be cautious about short - selling speculatively [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply - Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 05 | Pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, market trading is light, and sentiment is cooling | 4300 - 4310 | 4500 - 4550 | Oscillatory adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | | Soybean No. 2 05 | The U.S. soybean biodiesel policy has positive expectations, and South American weather disturbances are intensifying. Short - term soybean No. 2 may stop falling | 3400 - 3420 | 3550 - 3580 | Firm operation | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 05 | South American weather disturbances are intensifying, the U.S. biodiesel expectation is positive, and the positive driving force for soybean oil continues | 7850 - 7880 | 8250 - 8300 | Oscillatory and bullish | Light - position short - term long | | | Rapeseed Oil 05 | Supply is expected to turn loose, but the current low - margin on the futures market may provide some support after the price decline. Pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, and market trading is dull | 8700 - 8720 | 9120 - 9150 | Range oscillation | Temporarily wait and see | | | Palm 05 | The supply - demand situation in the main production areas in the first quarter still has strong support | 8880 - 8900 | 9370 - 9400 | Oscillatory and bullish | Go long on dips | | Proteins | Soybean Meal 05 | South American weather disturbances are intensifying, and soybean meal may stop falling and oscillate in the short term | 2650 - 2680 | 2780 - 2800 | Firm operation | Temporarily wait and see | | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | Supply is turning loose, but the margin on the futures market is falling | 2190 - 2200 | 2340 - 2350 | Low - level oscillation | Take profit on short - positions | | Energy and By - products | Corn 03 | The structural contradiction support continues, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate in the range | 2160 - 2170 | 2330 - 2350 | Range fluctuation | Temporarily wait and see | | | Starch 03 | The cost - end corn price fluctuates in the range, and it may follow the corn to fluctuate in the range in the short term | 2430 - 2440 | 2630 - 2650 | Range fluctuation | Temporarily wait and see | | Livestock | Pigs 03 | Feed prices stop falling and rebound, and the industry has capacity - reduction policies | 11000 - 11200 | 11800 - 12500 | Low - level oscillation | Go long on dips | | | Eggs 03 | Capacity pressure + consumption peak season expectation | 3000 - 3080 | 3150 - 3280 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Go long on dips | [9] 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Basis of Main Contract | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 4160 | 4160 | - 218 | 94 | | | Soybean No. 2 | 3950 | 3950 | 452 | 0 | | | Peanut | 7400 | 7400 | - 342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean Oil | 8650 | 8650 | 408 | - 28 | | | Rapeseed Oil | 9940 | 0 | 796 | - 35 | | | Palm Oil | 9080 | - 100 | 54 | - 84 | | Proteins | Soybean Meal | 3050 | 0 | 365 | 365 | | | Rapeseed Meal | 2520 | 0 | 281 | - 1 | | Energy and By - products | Corn | 2310 | 0 | 63 | 203 | | | Starch | 2640 | 0 | 57 | - 11 | | Livestock | Pigs | 12.14 (yuan/kg) | 0.03 (yuan/kg) | 775 | - 390 | | | Eggs | 2.82 (yuan/jin) | - 0.29 (yuan/jin) | 746 (yuan/500kg) | - 113.00 (yuan/500kg) | [10][11] 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil at different shipping dates, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF arrival prices, arrival - duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the profit is zero [11][12]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operation rate of various oilseeds and oils, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as the operation rates of soybean oil mills, rapeseed oil mills, and peanut oil mills [13]. 3.2.2 Feed The report presents the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operation rate, and inventory of starch enterprises, as well as the grain - selling progress of farmers [13]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Pigs**: The data includes the weekly average prices of binary sows, 7KG external - ternary piglets, external - ternary pigs, and pig feed, as well as the breeding cost, profit, pig - grain ratio, slaughter weight, slaughter data, and frozen - product inventory rate [14]. - **Eggs**: The data covers the laying rate, the proportion of large, medium, and small eggs, the age and quantity of culled chickens, the sales volume, inventory, profit, and related spot prices [15]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts 3.3.1 Livestock (Pigs and Eggs) The report provides the closing prices of the main contracts of pigs and eggs, as well as the spot prices of pigs, piglets, white - striped pigs, eggs, chicken seedlings, and culled chickens [16][18][19][21]. 3.3.2 Oilseeds and Oils - **Palm Oil**: It includes the monthly production, export volume, ending inventory, import margin, import volume, domestic inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis of Malaysian palm oil [26][29]. - **Soybean Oil**: It shows the U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operation rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis [31][33][36]. - **Peanuts**: It presents the arrival and shipment volumes of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the daily crushing profit, the weekly raw - material procurement volume of some oil mills, the weekly operation rate, the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil mills, the monthly import volume, price spreads, and basis [38][40][42]. 3.3.3 Feed - **Corn**: It includes the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, port inventory, grain - selling progress, import volume, consumption, inventory, processing profit, and price difference with wheat of corn [44][47][49]. - **Corn Starch**: It shows the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, operation rate, inventory, and profit of corn starch [52][53][54]. - **Rapeseed**: It presents the spot price of rapeseed meal, the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil, the basis, inventory, crushing volume, and profit of rapeseed [56][60][61]. - **Soybean Meal**: It includes the flowering rate and pod - setting rate of U.S. soybeans, the inventory of soybeans in ports and soybean meal in domestic oil mills [65][67]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [70][74][75]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report shows the warehouse receipt situations of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indexes [80][85][87].

| 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 摘要 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月05日星期四 农产品团队 【行情复盘】周四，春节前资金频繁调仓带来商品市场剧烈波动。 橡胶期价增仓反弹后在前高附近反复震荡，商品大跌后情绪略有缓 和，本周金银多头集中获利平仓，带动商品出现系统性大跌，不少 商品迅速吞没前期涨幅。春节前资金调仓带动商品波动率上升。橡 胶期价减仓大幅下挫跌回起涨点，原料价格方面，泰国中央市场胶 水报价58泰铢/kg。盘后山东地区SCRWF报价15750元/吨，环比- 100。供给端，泰国地区上量高峰期将过，东北地区临近停割，预 计本轮割胶季旺季维持到2月左右，节后供应压力有望减轻。春节 临近，短期下游采购意愿减弱，顺丁现货报价下调后交投有所提升 ，现货市场逐步闭 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月03日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 金银市场史诗级的下跌引发铜价下挫，但随着日间金银市场恐慌情 绪缓解，铜市场情绪明显回暖，午后出现明显反弹。特朗普拟设12 0亿美元关键矿产战略储备，储备范围覆盖稀土和关键矿产，未来 铜作为战略资源有望获得进一步溢价。1月铜价的上涨更多来自估 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is weak, affecting the prices of soft commodities and fresh - fruit products. Each variety has its own supply - demand fundamentals, which jointly determine their price trends and trading strategies [2][7][9]. - For soft commodities, sugar supply is abundant, paper pulp supply is not tight but demand is in the off - season, and double - offset paper has cost support weakening and demand in the off - season [2][5][6]. - For fresh - fruit products, the supply of apples has support, and the supply of jujubes is moving towards a situation of both supply and demand being strong [9][10]. 3. Summary of Each Section Based on the Table of Contents First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Interval | Pressure Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Reduce long positions | Supply - side support exists, but the overall commodity sentiment is weak recently, and the short - term may show a volatile and repeated trend | 8800 - 8900 | 11000 - 11500 [19] | | Jujube 2605 | Short - term buy on dips | The expectation of production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has begun to peak and decline | 8700 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 [19] | | Sugar 2605 | Hold short positions | International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar supply is in the peak season, with overall sufficient supply | 5070 - 5100 | 5300 - 5350 [19] | | Pulp 2605 | Lightly allocate long positions | Downstream finished paper is in the off - season, and pulp itself lacks new supply - side positive news recently, so the price is under pressure, but the US dollar quotation is stable, and the increase in warehouse receipt cost may support the short - term price | 5200 - 5300 | 5450 - 5500 [19] | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Interval operation | The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support situation after the disk price further declines and drives the basis to widen | 4000 - 4100 | 4250 - 4300 [19] | | Cotton 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | The long - term positive expectation still exists, and the medium - term support remains unchanged. However, the external price is in a bottom - seeking trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. Recently, the overall commodity sentiment is weak, and the short - term price may fluctuate repeatedly | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 [19] | Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 29, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas of China was 601,010 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 313,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 610,000 tons [20]. - **Spot Market**: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in the Shandong production area is stable, and the packaging volume of merchants in the cold storage is okay. The price of bagged Fuji in the Shaanxi production area is also stable, and the packaging volume in the cold storage has increased significantly. In the sales area, the market arrival volume is increasing, and the sales of gift - boxed products are okay [20][21][22]. Jujube Market As of January 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 13,143 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 925 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.99%. The pre - Spring Festival is the traditional consumption peak season for jujubes, but the current sales speed is slower than that of last year, and the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end [23]. Sugar Market As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 19.503 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.35%. Stonex estimated that Brazil's sugar production in the central and southern regions in the 2026/27 crushing season would be 40.7 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous estimate. As of the week of January 27, the net short position of speculative positions in ICE raw sugar futures + options decreased by 21,040 hands compared with the previous week. India's domestic sugar sales quota in February 2026 was 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January [26]. Pulp Market Affected by the decline in futures prices and the weakening demand for key resale varieties, the Chinese pulp market continued to be weak. The price of resold BSK decreased, and the spot quotation of imported NBSK also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remained stable [28]. Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [29]. Cotton Market As of January 27, the non - commercial net long position of futures + options in the ICE cotton futures market decreased by 13,592 contracts compared with the previous week [30]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9380 | - 138 | - 1.45% [31] | | Jujube 2605 | 8820 | - 130 | - 1.45% [31] | | Sugar 2605 | 5207 | - 41 | - 0.78% [31] | | Pulp 2605 | 5266 | - 34 | - 0.64% [31] | | Cotton 2605 | 14575 | - 95 | - 0.65% [31] | Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 [36] | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 [36] | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5330 | 0 | - 580 [36] | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5375 | - 25 | - 1225 [36] | | Double - offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 [36] | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16070 | - 113 | 1344 [36] | Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1271 | 55 | 1781 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips [57] | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 225 | - 10 | 155 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see [57] | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 15 | 1 | - 148 | Oscillate | Wait and see [57] | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 110 | 30 | 40 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs [57] | Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 [89] | | Jujube | 3317 | 0 | - 699 [89] | | Sugar | 14069 | - 50 | - 10059 [89] | | Pulp | 142447 | 0 | - 196281 [89] | | Cotton | 10325 | 36 | 3612 [89] | Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market rose rapidly under the boost of capital, with the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing as the main driving forces. The price broke through the historical high and continued to strengthen, and is currently fluctuating widely at a high level [59]. - In 2026, the tight supply of tin ore will gradually ease, showing a pattern of tight supply in the first half and loose in the second half. The operating rate of smelters will improve after the holiday. The processing fee, which has been at a low level, increased in January and has room for further growth. However, the secondary tin smelting industry still faces problems such as an inefficient waste recycling system and uncertain recycling policies [59]. - In terms of demand, the tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue its good growth trend in 2026, benefiting from the rapid development of the semiconductor industry due to computing power demand. In addition, the external demand in the traditional tin - plated sheet field is expanding, offsetting some of the negative impact of the decline in domestic demand. The future development of Sino - US trade frictions remains the biggest uncertainty [59]. - In 2026, the global interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the non - ferrous metal sector will cyclically improve. The supply side is likely to gradually loosen, while the downstream demand also has some bright spots. The supply and demand of tin are likely to remain in a tight - balanced situation. It is expected that tin prices will remain strong in 2026, with the Shanghai tin futures price mainly ranging between 350,000 - 450,000 and the LME tin price mainly between 45,000 - 60,000 [59]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review and Macroeconomic Impact - **Market Review**: In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market accelerated its upward rush, and the overall center of gravity shifted significantly. The main driving forces were the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing, while the impact of the current fundamentals was relatively weak [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Geopolitical situations are complex and changeable. The EU is considering imposing tariffs on US goods worth 93 billion euros and restricting US companies from entering the EU market. The US will impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from eight European countries starting February 1, 2026, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% starting June 1. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the candidate for the new Fed chair is undetermined. Since January, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, putting pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector [11]. Part II: Tin Supply - Side Analysis - **Tin Ore Supply**: China's tin ore production has been declining in recent years due to over - exploitation, low - grade reserves, and limited new resource discoveries. In 2025, the production of tin concentrates in China showed a slight increase. In December 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly month - on - month. With the gradual increase in tin ore exports from the Wa State in Myanmar, the import volume is expected to increase in 2026 [17]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In 2025, the price of tin concentrates showed an upward trend, and the processing fee was weak. In 2026, with a slight improvement in ore supply, the processing fee was raised. In December 2025, the output of refined tin by domestic sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that in 2026, the supply growth rate of refined tin will be slightly higher than that in 2025, but the output in January may decrease month - on - month [20]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export**: In 2026, there is a trend of opening the refined tin import window. In December 2025, both imports and exports of refined tin increased. In 2025, China's net exports of refined tin were nearly 3,500 tons [23]. Part III: Tin Demand - Side Analysis - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. However, in 2025, due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and the decline in domestic demand, the production decreased significantly. In 2025, the export of tin - plated sheets increased, but the future export situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war [29]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The production of lead - acid batteries has been growing in recent years, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2025, the export of lead - acid batteries decreased year - on - year due to the impact of the trade war [30]. - **Electronic Products**: The growth cycle of electronic products is approaching the end. In 2025, the production growth rate of electronic products turned negative. It is expected that the production and sales of computers and mobile phones will decline in 2026 [35]. - **Integrated Circuits**: Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, it is expected that the production and sales of integrated circuits will continue to grow rapidly in the medium and long term [36]. - **PVC and Glass**: The production of PVC has been increasing, while the production of glass has been decreasing. Each ton of glass consumes about 22 grams of tin [41]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic industry is transforming from a high - speed development stage. In 2025, there was a rush to install photovoltaic capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW. The new tin demand in the global photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 43,000 tons, and about 20,000 tons in China [44]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. It is expected that the growth rate in 2026 will be between 15% - 20% [48]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance**: As of December 1, 2025, the combined inventory of tin in the two major exchanges was at a relatively high - middle level. The global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months since 2018. In 2025 and 2026, the supply and demand are expected to remain in a tight - balanced situation [51][55]. - **Seasonal Analysis**: Historically, tin prices are weakest in June, and the probability of decline is high in March and October. The probability of increase is high in January, April, July, and December, and the increase is relatively significant. The probability of decline in August is slightly higher than that of increase, while the probability of increase in November is higher [57]. - **Related Stocks**: The stocks of related tin industries have shown significant increases in both monthly and annual terms, such as Tin Industry Co., Ltd., Xingye Co., Ltd., etc. [58]