期货研究院 钢矿日度策略报告 Steel&Iron Futures Daily Trading Strategy Report 黑色金属与建材研究中心 | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年04月18日星期五 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 近期市场情绪受关税方面的消息影响，由于中期关税可能利空黑色 系整体需求，因此螺纹反弹驱动也较弱。从基本面看，短期现货压 力还不大，本周需求表现较好，去库较快，现货压力不大。3月及 一季度国内经济数据表现较强，宽口径基建投资同比增幅扩大，房 地产新开工降幅较1-2月收窄，但施工降幅扩大，制造业投资增速 较高，加之出口也较好，不过一季度经济受美国关税负面影响较小 ，且关税带来的"抢出口"相对利多一季度经济，而二季度关税可 能逐步影响外需及制造业，届时铁水面临回落，炉料供需压力或加 大，成本也将拖累螺纹价格。因此，关税的潜在利空预期仍较强， 短期无法 ...

更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 煤化工产业链周报 Coal Chemical Industry Chain Weekly Report 摘要 行情回顾 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 夏聪聪 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3012139 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0012870 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578010 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年04月07日星期一 市场避险情绪升温，煤化工板块走势偏弱。甲醇、PVC、烧碱承压 回落，上方五日均线附近阻力明显。尿素期货涨势暂缓，重心冲高 后回落。 煤炭市场 【交易策略】关税政策加剧市场波动，避险情绪升温，尿素盘面存 在回调可能，多单建议离场，上方1930-1950附近承压，下方支撑 在1850-1860附近。 ●烧碱 上游煤炭市场维稳运行，报价与前期持平。产地主流煤矿生产平稳 ，货源供应充裕，到矿拉运车辆增加，多数煤矿库存保持在低位水 平，暂无库存压力。下游刚需接货为主，需求步入淡季，支撑力度 偏弱。煤炭市场供需宽松，市场存在下行压力。 ●甲醇 【市场逻辑】成本端 ...

Group 1: Report Structure - The report includes four parts: an overview and trend review of the silicon-based industry chain, an overview of core views, the fundamental situation of industrial silicon, and the fundamental situation of polysilicon [4][17][22] Group 2: Silicon Industry Chain - The industrial silicon industry chain involves upstream raw materials such as quartzite and carbon reducers, midstream products like organic silicon monomers and polysilicon, and downstream applications in construction, electronics, new energy, and other fields [6] Group 3: Industrial Silicon Supply and Demand - The industrial silicon monthly supply - demand balance table shows data from January 2024 to February 2025, including production, imports, various demands, exports, and the supply - demand balance. For example, in February 2025, the supply - demand balance was 0.51 [48] Group 4: Photovoltaic Component Market - China's photovoltaic component exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month in February 2025. Component production continued to decline to meet the industry's requirement of reducing production to support prices, and component prices remained stable near the cost line [54][55] Group 5: Polysilicon Market - The polysilicon cost is composed of electricity (40%), metallic silicon (27%), labor (4%), steam (3%), water (2%), other auxiliary materials (6%), equipment depreciation (15%), and maintenance costs (3%). The polysilicon cost has slightly loosened [71][72][73]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The cost - end oil price will oscillate in a range, providing limited support. Supply may contract slightly during the maintenance season, but new device startups could offset some losses. Demand is likely to improve slightly first and then weaken seasonally. Overall, polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate around the current level. The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade in the range of 7400 - 8500 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract in the range of 6800 - 7800 yuan/ton [78] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Polyolefin Market**: In Q1, polyolefin prices showed different fluctuations with a downward - moving center. In January, prices declined due to new device startups and weakening demand. In February, PE prices rose slightly while PP prices remained weak. In March, prices continued to fall due to oil price adjustments and manufacturers' price - cutting [7] - **Cost - end (Crude Oil)**: Oil prices first rose and then fell in Q1. Looking ahead, oil prices are expected to oscillate around the current level, with geopolitical and supply factors being the main concerns [10] 2. Supply Analysis - **Capacity and New Device Plans**: By the end of 2024, PE capacity was 34.2 million tons, up 9.26% year - on - year, and PP capacity was 43.82 million tons, up 12.68% year - on - year. In 2025, multiple new PE and PP devices are planned to start production [13][14][15] - **Device Profits**: Coal - based polyolefin device profits are acceptable, while other processes perform poorly [16] - **Device Maintenance**: In 2025, PE and PP entered the maintenance season, with increasing maintenance losses. In Q2, supply is expected to contract slightly, but new device startups may offset some losses [18][20][23][26] - **Imports and Exports**: In February 2025, PE imports increased month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports decreased year - on - year. PP imports and exports both increased month - on - month and year - on - year [29][31] - **Inventory**: As of March 28, the inventory of major producers decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [33] 3. Demand Analysis - **PE Demand**: In Q1, PE demand was weak first and then recovered. In Q2, it is expected to continue to improve first and then weaken [44] - **PP Demand**: In Q1, PP demand was weak first and then recovered. In Q2, it is expected to rise first and then fall, with potential pressure from tariffs [48] - **Policy Impact**: The "Two New" policies in 2025 expand subsidy scope and intensity, which is beneficial to terminal consumption demand and stimulates the consumption of plastic products [52][53] 4. Arbitrage and Technical Analysis - **Cross - variety Arbitrage**: In Q1, the L/PP spread fluctuated in an inverted "N" shape. In Q2, there may be structural spread arbitrage opportunities, with an expected fluctuation range of 300 - 600 yuan/ton [67] - **Technical Indicators**: The weekly K - line of PE is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7400 - 8500 yuan/ton, and the PP weekly K - line has reached the lower limit of the oscillation range, with support levels at 7200 yuan/ton and 6800 yuan/ton [69][72] 5. Seasonal Analysis - **LLDPE Seasonal Trend**: Historically, LLDPE has a higher probability of rising in January, June, July, September, and December, and a higher probability of falling in February, March, May, August, October, and November [74] - **PP Seasonal Trend**: Statistically, the PP main contract has a higher probability of rising in January, April, June, July, and September, and a higher probability of falling in February, March, May, August, and October [75] 6. Supply - Demand Gap Analysis - The document provides historical and expected supply - demand gap data for PE and PP from 2017 to 2025 [76][77] 7. Outlook - **Supply**: Supply is expected to contract slightly during the maintenance season, but new device startups may offset some losses [78] - **Demand**: Demand is expected to improve slightly first and then weaken seasonally [78] - **Cost**: Oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range, with geopolitical and supply factors being the main concerns [78] - **Price**: Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate around the current level, with the LLDPE main contract in the range of 7400 - 8500 yuan/ton and the PP main contract in the range of 6800 - 7800 yuan/ton [78]

期货研究院 聚烯烃及苯乙烯期货期权日度策略 Polyolefin and EB Futures & Options DailyTrading Strategy 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 封晓芬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03098955 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017725 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年03月18日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 聚烯烃： 【行情复盘】 期货市场：今日，聚烯烃震荡偏弱，LLDPE05合约收7708元/吨， 跌0.52%，持仓变化+2374手，PP05合约收7267元/吨，跌0.11% ，持仓变化+2514手。 现货市场：聚乙烯价格延续弱势，部分石化厂下调出厂价，贸易商 让利出货，下游补库意愿不高，随采随用，市场成交疲软，国内LL DPE市场主流价格在7940-8500元/吨；PP市场，现货价偏弱调整 ，贸易商随行出货，然下游新单跟进有限，采买积极性欠佳，华北 拉丝主流价格在7170-7300元/吨，华东拉丝主流价格在7240-740 0元/吨， ...

期货研究院 聚烯烃及苯乙烯期货期权日度策略 Polyolefin and EB Futures & Options DailyTrading 成文时间：2025年03月17日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 聚烯烃： 【行情复盘】 期货市场：今日，聚烯烃震荡偏弱，LLDPE05合约收7732元/吨， 跌0.69%，持仓变化+25553手，PP05合约收7282元/吨，涨0.14 %，持仓变化-8887手。 Strategy 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 封晓芬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03098955 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017725 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 现货市场：聚乙烯价格延续弱势，贸易商让利出货，下游补库意愿 不高，市场成交疲软，国内LLDPE市场主流价格在7950-8500元/ 吨；PP市场，贸易商让利报盘，下游刚需补货，市场交投不佳，华 北地区LLDPE价格在7950-8330元/吨，华东地区LLDPE价格在801 0-8500元/吨，华南地区LLDPE价格在8050-8380元 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a cautious outlook for the polyolefin and styrene industry, suggesting a "watch and wait" strategy for investors [13]. Core Insights - The polyolefin market is experiencing slight price declines due to weak demand and supply adjustments, with LLDPE and PP prices at 7790 CNY/ton and 7291 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting weekly declines of 1.30% and 0.37% [1][2]. - The styrene market shows a mixed trend, with prices recovering slightly after a weak start, closing at 8123 CNY/ton, marking a weekly increase of 0.17% [4][5]. - Overall, the report indicates that while there are signs of demand recovery, supply pressures and cost factors are likely to keep prices under pressure in the short term [3][6]. Summary by Sections Strategy Recommendations - LLDPE: Anticipated short-term weak fluctuations with support at 7500-7550 CNY/ton and resistance at 7900-7950 CNY/ton [13]. - PP: Expected to remain weak with support at 7150-7200 CNY/ton and resistance at 7450-7500 CNY/ton [13]. - Styrene: Predicted to experience low-level fluctuations with support at 7750-7800 CNY/ton and resistance at 8500-8550 CNY/ton [13]. Futures Market Situation - LLDPE futures closed at 7790 CNY/ton with a trading volume of 1,767,398 contracts and an increase in open interest by 12,358 contracts [14]. - PP futures closed at 7291 CNY/ton with a trading volume of 1,384,915 contracts and an increase in open interest by 4,613 contracts [15]. - Styrene futures closed at 8123 CNY/ton with a trading volume of 1,194,964 contracts and a decrease in open interest by 46,650 contracts [15]. Spot Market Situation - The spot price for LLDPE ranged between 8020-8500 CNY/ton, while PP prices varied from 7170-7430 CNY/ton depending on the region [2]. - Styrene spot prices were reported at 8175 CNY/ton in East China and 8375 CNY/ton in South China [5]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Polyethylene production rates decreased slightly to 81.63%, while polypropylene rates increased to 83.48% [2]. - Styrene production rates were reported at 74.68%, with expectations of further supply tightening due to upcoming maintenance [6]. Inventory Levels - As of March 14, total oil inventory was 805,000 tons, with polyethylene trade inventory at 175,940 tons and polypropylene social trade inventory at 46,510 tons [3][6].

期货研究院 聚烯烃及苯乙烯期货期权日度策略 Polyolefin and EB Futures & Options DailyTrading Strategy 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 封晓芬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03098955 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017725 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年03月13日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 聚烯烃： 【行情复盘】 期货市场：今日，聚烯烃盘中冲高后震荡回落，小幅收跌，LLDPE 05合约收7773元/吨，跌0.52%，持仓变化-2734手，PP05合约收 7255元/吨，跌0.36%，持仓变化+2309手。 现货市场：聚乙烯价格延续弱势调整，贸易商继续让利出货，下游 心态偏谨慎，市场交投清淡，国内LLDPE市场主流价格在8040-86 00元/吨；PP市场，现货价格局部小幅松动，贸易商积极出货，但 下游新单跟进有限，部分原材料仍待消耗，使得整体采购积极性欠 佳，华北拉丝主流价格在7200-7300元/吨，华东拉丝主流价格在 ...

期货研究院 聚烯烃及苯乙烯期货期权日度策略 Polyolefin and EB Futures & Options DailyTrading Strategy 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 封晓芬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03098955 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017725 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年03月12日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 聚烯烃： 【行情复盘】 期货市场：今日，聚烯烃震荡偏弱，LLDPE05合约收7801元/吨， 跌0.75%，持仓变化+20136手，PP05合约收7251元/吨，跌0.74 %，持仓变化+23096手。 现货市场：聚乙烯价格多数下跌，贸易商让利出货，下游拿货积极 性一般，国内LLDPE市场主流价格在8060-8600元/吨；PP市场， 现货价格小幅下跌，上游厂商让利出货意愿增加，但下游新单跟进 有限，接货积极性不高，华北拉丝主流价格在7230-7320元/吨， 华东拉丝主流价格在7270-7420元/吨，华南拉丝主流价格在7270 - ...

Strategy 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 封晓芬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03098955 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017725 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年03月11日星期二 期货研究院 聚烯烃及苯乙烯期货期权日度策略 Polyolefin and EB Futures & Options DailyTrading 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 聚烯烃： 【行情复盘】 期货市场：今日，聚烯烃震荡偏弱，LLDPE05合约收7867元/吨， 跌0.25%，持仓变化+2684手，PP05合约收7309元/吨，跌0.41% ，持仓变化+12493手。 现货市场：聚乙烯价格部分小幅回落，上游石化厂出货价整体趋稳 ，局部下游有所提前备货，整体北方需求好于南方，国内LLDPE市 场主流价格在8000-8600元/吨；PP市场，现货价格部分松动，但 下游新单跟进有限，维持刚需采购，华北拉丝主流价格在7240-73 20元/吨，华东拉丝主流价格在7290-7400元/吨，华南拉丝主流价 格在7 ...