Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment has recovered, leading to a rebound in the market. In the short term, a volatile trading approach should be adopted. The easing of Trump's tariff policy has increased market risk appetite, causing a rebound in the commodity market, especially in iron ore. However, due to the deterioration of international trade and stricter export investigations of Chinese steel products, the export demand for finished steel is expected to be weak, which may suppress the increase in hot metal production. The seasonal increase in overseas ore shipments also indicates a marginal weakening of the iron ore fundamentals. The 2509 contract is under pressure from increased supply and weakening exports of finished steel, with an expected operating range of 680 - 740 yuan/ton. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and continue to hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The macro - sentiment recovery has led to a market rebound. The easing of Trump's tariff policy has increased market risk appetite, resulting in a significant rebound in iron ore. The deterioration of international trade and stricter export investigations of Chinese steel products may suppress the increase in hot metal production. The seasonal increase in overseas ore shipments indicates a marginal weakening of iron ore fundamentals. The 09 contract faces pressure from increased supply and weakening exports of finished steel. The 2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 680 - 740 yuan/ton. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and continue to hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [1]. Futures Market - The main iron ore I2509 contract opened lower and then strengthened, closing at 707 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 3.06%. The trading volume was 597,300 lots, and the open interest was 481,900 lots, a decrease of 6,907 lots. The top 20 long positions in the 2509 contract increased by 2,016 lots to 299,669 lots, and the top 20 short positions increased by 362 lots to 313,628 lots [3][5]. Fundamental Tracking - From March 31 to April 6, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2.9219 billion tons, a decrease of 265,900 tons compared with the previous period. The Australian shipment volume was 1.6592 billion tons, a decrease of 327,200 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.4531 billion tons, a decrease of 73,900 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 733,900 tons, an increase of 72,500 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.3591 billion tons, a decrease of 13,200 tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.1887 billion tons, a decrease of 54,900 tons. As of April 4, the daily average output of iron ore concentrate from 126 domestic mines was 41,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.14%, with limited changes compared with the previous period. Overseas ore shipments have decreased slightly, mainly from Australia, and are at a relatively high level. The arrival volume has decreased slightly from a high level and is at a moderately low level, with a possible increase in the future. The iron ore price remains above the cost line of non - mainstream mines, having limited impact on non - mainstream mine shipments. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is still in a loose situation. On the demand side, the hot metal production has continued to increase slightly, but the concentrated resumption of production has passed, and the growth rate may slow down. On the inventory side, the port inventory has fluctuated slightly, and steel mills still maintain a low - inventory strategy. In the medium - to - long - term, high inventory restricts the upside space of the ore price [6].

【冠通研究】 宏观悲观情绪放缓，基本面仍难支撑反弹 【策略分析】 宏观悲观情绪放缓，基本面仍难支撑反弹 今日商品市场情绪整体修复，焦煤主力低开后震荡运行。国内矿山复产加快，蒙 煤通关车辆回升，进口煤资源充足，口岸库存高位运行。下游钢焦企业开工继续 回升，焦企一轮提涨；国内焦煤竞拍价格上涨，出货好转，但是海外资源价格仍 承压，蒙煤二季度长协价下调。短期看，焦煤供需双增，现货市场情绪有所回暖， 但需求端缺乏弹性，供需宽松格局难有明显转变；近期受宏观风险冲击，盘面继 续走低，考虑到焦煤估值偏低，短期低位弱势震荡思路对待。 【期货行情】 焦煤 2505 小时 K 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 10 日 期货方面：焦煤主力 JM2505 合约低开后偏弱震荡，最终收盘于 913 元/吨，-3.5 元/吨，涨跌幅-0.38%。成交量 26.76 万手，持仓 21.35 万手，-9842 手，今日焦 煤 2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 106999 手，-6933 手，前二十名空头持仓为 139937 手，-4469 手，多减空减。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务 ...

【冠通研究】 商品市场整体反弹，成材反弹受基本面制约 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 10 日 【策略分析】 商品市场整体反弹，成材反弹受基本面制约 【基本面跟踪】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 数据来源：博易大师，冠通期货 期货方面：螺纹钢主力 RB2510 开盘 3075 元/吨，收盘于 3139 元/吨，+62 元/吨， 涨跌幅+2.01%；热卷主力 2510 开盘 3200 元/吨，收盘于 3255 元/吨，+64 元/吨， 涨跌幅+2.01%。持仓方面，今日螺纹钢 RB2510 合约前二十名多头持仓为 1110435 手，+33845 手，前二十名空头持仓为 1130619 手，-12159 手，多增空减；热卷 HC2510 合约前二十名多头持仓为 919290 手，-2645 手，前二十名空头持仓为 772508 手，-11314 手，多减空减。 现货方面：今日国内钢材价格普遍上涨，上海地区螺纹钢现货价格为 3170 元/吨 （+40 元/吨）；上海地区热轧卷板现货价格为 3280 元/吨（-+40 元/吨）。今日钢 材市场交投氛围有所 ...

尿素盘面上涨，反弹力度或不足 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 10 日 【冠通研究】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约高开高走震荡收涨，今日期市多数翻红涨多跌少。现货市场成 交好转，价格小幅反弹。供给端，今日乌石化检修减产，春季多发临检，但前期 检修企业也有复产，日产稳定为主，华锦、渭河等有检修计划，天庆田原等本周 复产。需求端，下游低价货源买进，成交有所好转。目前接货以复合肥工厂为主， 但工厂原料价格近日下降，利润回暖，企业成品库存增加，工厂开工负荷降低， 春季肥已达尾声，夏季肥进展有限，预计本月开工负荷继续走低。稻农需备肥零 星跟进，下一轮集中备肥系 6 月左右农需备肥。本期上游工厂出现累库，系清明 假期期间下游接货力度不足，但也表现出下游需求整体不足，工厂出现累库。整 体来说，尿素目前受宏观影响较小，基本面偏弱，盘面小幅上涨，但弹性预计不 足，需求端环比走弱，盘面震荡为主，05 合约关注 1780-1900 元/吨区间宽幅震 荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2505 合约 1848 元/吨高开高走，盘面震荡收涨 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/04/10 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价全线上涨, 美油 5 月合约涨 5.25%, 报 62.71 美元/桶。布油 6 月合 约涨 4.58%，报 65.70 美元/桶。 2. 国际贵金属期货大幅收涨,COMEX 黄金期货涨 3.67%报 3099.8 美元/盎司, COMEX 白银期货涨 4.31%报 30.965 美元/盎司。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数收涨, LME 期铜涨 3.6%报 8897 美元/吨, LME 期锌涨 2.62% 报 2620 美元/吨，LME 期镍涨 1.91%报 14420 美元/吨，LME 期铝涨 0.83%报 2357 美元/吨,LME 期锡跌 4.68%报 30670 美元/吨,LME 期铅跌 0.27%报 1865 美元/ 啦。 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约集体收涨, 大豆期货涨 1.99% 报 1012.5 美分/蒲式耳;玉米期货涨 0.96%报 473.5 美分/蒲式耳, 小麦期货涨 0.42%报 542.25 美分/蒲式耳。 5. 国内商 ...

2、据新浪消息，美国政府将对数十个国家暂停征收对等关税90天，维持最低关税税率为10%。交易员大幅削减了此前对美联储 5月开始降息的押注，认为美国从6月开始降息的可能性比5月大得多，预计到今年年底，美联储将总共降息四次。 早盘速递 2025/4/10 热点资讯 1、海关总署公告，自2025年4月10日12时01分起，对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征84%关税； 2025年4月10日12时01分之前，货物已从启运地启运，并于2025年4月10日12时01分至2025年5月13日24时进口的，不加征本次 加征的关税。 重点关注 丁二烯橡胶、玻璃、纯碱、生猪、沪金、沪锡 夜盘表现 板块表现 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 3.62% 贵金属, 24.18% 油脂油料, 14.03% 煤焦钢矿, 14.72% 能源, 2.31% 化工, 13.17% 谷物, 1.87% 农副产品, 2.96% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of soymeal is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, while the long - term trend is bullish due to tariff policies. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [3]. - Crude oil prices are weakening and mainly moving downward in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies and US - Iran negotiations [4]. - The copper market is currently mainly trading on the expectation of macro - economic recession, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the fundamentals are still resilient, and it is expected to return to the logic of tight supply and demand after the digestion of macro - negative sentiment [10]. - The lithium carbonate market is weakening, and the possibility of positive news is low. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract expected to operate between 68,000 - 77,000 yuan [12]. - The asphalt market is weakening and mainly moving downward in a volatile manner. Given the tight raw materials, the asphalt cracking spread is expected to strengthen [13][15]. - The PP market is expected to move downward in a volatile manner. It is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL [16]. - The plastic market is expected to move downward in a volatile manner. It is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL, and short the 05 basis of plastic on highs [18]. - The PVC market is under short - term downward pressure [19]. - The palm oil 05 contract is under pressure and running weakly, and the soybean oil 09 contract is running weakly [20]. - The iron ore market should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side position and hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [21]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil markets should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset at low levels in the short - term [23]. - The coking coal market should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset at low levels in the short - term [24]. - The urea market is mainly moving weakly and volatilely, with the main contract expected to oscillate widely between 1780 - 1900 yuan/ton [25][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soymeal - The main 09 contract of soymeal opened high and closed low today, with increased positions and a closing increase of 0.55%. - Internationally, Trump imposed additional tariffs on China. Domestically, China imposed counter - tariffs on the US. The soybean import supply has reached an inflection point, and the pressure is prominent. - The weekly soybean import volume of crushers is 1202,500 tons, a slight decrease of 2.63% from the previous week. The weekly output of soymeal is 813,700 tons, a decrease of 14.36% from the previous week. The weekly apparent demand has increased by 3.29%, and the inventory has decreased by 22.58% [3]. 3.2. Crude Oil - Trump signed an executive order to set a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners. The benchmark tariff took effect on April 5th, and the reciprocal tariff on April 9th. - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting from May. Trump said the US will negotiate directly with Iran. - The market is worried about the global economy, and crude oil prices are weakening [4]. 3.3. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on April 9th, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Shipping to Europe and PX fell by more than 6%, while eggs, ferrosilicon, and Shanghai gold rose by nearly 2%. - Stock index futures and treasury bond futures generally rose [6]. 3.4. Capital Flows - As of 15:19, funds flowed into Shanghai gold 2506 (1.515 billion yuan), 30 - year treasury bonds 2506 (493 million yuan), and soybean oil 2509 (256 million yuan). - Funds flowed out of Shanghai copper 2505 (2.974 billion yuan), PTA2505 (1.507 billion yuan), and ethylene glycol 2505 (959 million yuan) [8]. 3.5. Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and closed down today. The market is pessimistic about the economic outlook due to the trade war, and copper prices are under pressure. - In the long - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is improving. The copper market is expected to return to the logic of tight supply and demand [10]. 3.6. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market opened with slight fluctuations and strengthened in the afternoon. The price is affected by US tariff policies. - In March 2025, the domestic production increased by 25.2% month - on - month, and the planned production in April decreased by 4.6% month - on - month. The inventory increased by 1477 tons week - on - week [12]. 3.7. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate continued to decline. The downstream demand is recovering slowly, and the inventory is at a low level. - Affected by US tariff policies and the decline in crude oil prices, asphalt prices are weakening [13][15]. 3.8. PP - The downstream PP开工率 is basically stable at a low level. The enterprise开工率 has increased, and the production ratio of standard products has decreased. - The inventory has decreased, but the market is expected to move downward due to trade war concerns [16]. 3.9. Plastic - The plastic开工率 has decreased. The downstream demand is still at a low level, and the inventory has decreased. - Affected by US tariff policies and the decline in crude oil prices, the market is expected to move downward [18]. 3.10. PVC - The PVC开工率 has slightly decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory is still high. - Affected by US tariff policies and the Indian anti - dumping policy, PVC prices are under pressure [19]. 3.11. Oils and Fats - The oils and fats sector fell today. Palm oil production in Malaysia increased in March, and Indonesia will adjust export taxes. - In China, palm oil import profits are inverted, and the demand is low. Soybean oil production has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. Rapeseed oil inventory is high [20]. 3.12. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is affected by tariff policies and trade conflicts. The short - term fundamentals have some support, but the 09 contract is under pressure [21]. 3.13. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The rebar and hot - rolled coil markets are affected by trade conflicts. The demand is weak, and the export is expected to decline in the long - term. They are expected to move weakly at low levels [23]. 3.14. Coking Coal - The coking coal market has a loose supply - demand pattern. The spot market sentiment has improved slightly, but the price is still under pressure due to macro risks [24]. 3.15. Urea - The urea supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to move weakly and volatilely, with the main contract operating between 1780 - 1900 yuan/ton [25][26].

【冠通研究】 宏观悲观情绪延续，短期弱势震荡 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 9 日 【策略分析】 热卷 2510 小时 K 数据来源：博易大师，冠通期货 宏观悲观情绪延续，短期弱势震荡 贸易冲突加大，市场悲观情绪延续，成材低开后继续偏弱运行，早盘开盘快速下 砸后有所修复。成材基本面表现中性偏弱，螺纹需求回升斜率偏缓，库存去化缓 慢；热卷需求有见顶迹象，库存去化态势较好，但国际贸易形势恶化叠加买单出 口调查加严，中长期热卷出口有边际走弱预期。我们认为成材需求和铁水产量见 顶风险逐渐加大，产业链上下游整体压力加大；近几日宏观风险加大带动黑色系 整体偏弱运行，但考虑到黑色系估值相对偏低，产业矛盾暂时有限，短期建议低 位弱势震荡思路对待。后续重点关注出口需求边际变动以及国内宏观政策措施。 RB2510 下方关注 3000 附近、HC2510 关注 3100 附近。 【期现行情】 螺纹 2510 小时 K 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 期货方面：螺纹钢主力 RB2510 开盘 3102 元/吨，收盘于 3088 元/吨，-43 元/吨， 涨跌幅-1.37% ...

【冠通研究】 今日沥青期货2506合约下跌3.09%至3232元/吨，5日均线下方，最低价在3184元/吨，最高价 3323元/吨，持仓量增加1624至187908手。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 沥青：震荡下行 制作日期：2025年4月9日 【策略分析】 逢高做空 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.0个百分点至25.7%，较去年同期低了0.8个百分点，沥青开 工率继续回落，基本与近年同期最低位相当。据隆众资讯数据，3月份预计排产238.6万吨，环比增 加27.8万吨，增幅为13.2%。上周沥青下游各行业陆续复工，开工率继续反弹，但其中道路沥青开工 环比持平于19%，开工率仍然偏低，恢复缓慢。政府工作报告表示拟安排地方政府专项债券4.4万亿 元，比上年增加5000亿元，要加快各项资金下达拨付，尽快形成实际支出，关注形成的沥青实物工 作量的进度。上周山东地区部分炼厂月底执行合同出货，出货量增加明显，全国出货量环比增加 0.87%至24.40万吨，但仍处于低位。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比减少，连续两周环比下降，仍处于 近年来同期的最低位，受新一轮冷空气影 ...

制作日期：2025 年 4 月 9 日 【策略分析】 【冠通研究】 宏观扰动加剧，焦煤继续下探 期货方面：焦煤主力 JM2505 合约低开后偏弱震荡，最终收盘于 917 元/吨，-38.5 元/吨，涨跌幅-4.03%。成交量 36.5 万手，持仓 22.33 万手，-41145 手，今日焦 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 煤 2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 115190 手，-12376 手，前二十名空头持仓为 145404 手，-28933 手，多减空减。 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1140 元/吨，较上个交易日持平；蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 840 元/吨，较上个交易日-10 元/吨。 宏观扰动加剧，焦煤继续下探 今日黑色系继续下探，焦煤主力低开后偏弱运行。国内矿山复产加快，蒙煤通关 车辆回升，进口煤资源充足，口岸库存高位运行。下游钢焦企业开工继续回升， 焦企一轮提涨；国内焦煤竞拍价格上涨，出货好转，但是海外资源价格仍承压， 蒙煤二季度长协价下调。短期看，焦煤供需双增，现货市场情绪有所回暖，但需 求端缺乏弹性，供需宽松格局难有明显转 ...