下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 16275.26 323.27 8989.59 283.28 2756.4 38.84 229.5 79.31 86.04 37.66 8.00 上期 15970.89 325.21 8946.54 280.67 2601.4 36.56 227.43 78.94 85.26 38.1 13.00 周变动 304.37 -1.94 43.05 2.61 155.00 2.28 2.07 0.37 0.78 -0.44 -5.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 12352.32 2115.38 344.79 1462.77 本期 10751.81 5663.9 7185.34 上期 12179.68 2133.03 342 1316.18 上期 10423.52 5571.25 7087.15 周变动 172.64 -17.65 2.79 146.59 周变动 328.29 92.65 98.19 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Soda Ash**: The current week's soda ash开工率 was 84.39%, up 4.43 percentage points from the previous week;产量 was 75.36 tons, up 5.65 tons;重质产量 was 40.45 tons, up 3.35 tons;轻质产量 was 34.91 tons, up 2.3 tons; the number of production lines decreased by 2 to 212 [1] - **Float Glass**: The current week's开工率 was 71.954%, down 1.081 percentage points from the previous week;产量 was 105.9245 tons, down 1.413 tons [1] Inventory - **Soda Ash**: The current week's厂内库存 was 157.27 tons, up 16.44 tons;重质库存 was 73.62 tons, up 6.01 tons;轻质库存 was 83.65 tons, up 10.43 tons;库存可用天数 was 13.04 days, up 1.36 days [1] - **Float Glass**: The current week's库存 was 5551.8万重量箱, down 134.8万重量箱;库存可用天数 was 24.1 days, down 1.5 days [1] Profit - **Soda Ash**: The current week's天然气利润 was -186.4 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton;氨碱法毛利 was -57.85 yuan/ton, up 37.55 yuan/ton;联产法毛利 was -40 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton;石油焦利润 was -5.78 yuan/ton, up 18.58 yuan/ton;煤制气利润 was -73.83 yuan/ton, down 8.6 yuan/ton [1] - **Float Glass**: The current week's天然气浮法工艺利润 was -186.4 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton;石油焦浮法工艺利润 was -5.78 yuan/ton, up 18.58 yuan/ton;煤炭浮法工艺利润 data was not shown this week [1] Basis & Spread - **Soda Ash**: The current week's基差 was -40 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton; 1 - 5价差 was 83 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton;纯碱 - 玻璃01价差 was 143 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton;纯碱 - 玻璃05价差 was 76 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - **Float Glass**: The current week's基差 was -153 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton; 1 - 5价差 was 150 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of domestic and international commodity futures, important macro - economic and industry - specific news, and the performance of various financial markets including stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also highlights significant events such as geopolitical situations, policy regulations, and corporate developments that may impact the investment landscape. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures mostly closed down, with new energy materials leading the decline (polysilicon hit the daily limit down), while black - series commodities led the gains (coking coal rose 4.75%). Shipping, precious metals, and base metals all declined, with the container shipping index (European line) down 8.98%, platinum down 6.72%, and Shanghai nickel down 6.14% [4][47]. - U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil futures rose, with the U.S. crude oil main contract up 4.3% at $58.4 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up 4.57% at $62.7 per barrel [5][47]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures up 0.57% at $4487.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.19% at $76.69 per ounce [6][47]. - London base metals mostly declined, with LME aluminum up 0.15% at $3088.0 per ton, while others like zinc, copper, lead, tin, and nickel all fell [6][48]. Important Information Macro - Information - Global 20 - foot standard container throughput exceeded 1 billion for the first time at the end of 2025, demonstrating the resilience of global trade [9]. - China firmly opposes the U.S. hegemonic actions against Venezuela and will continue to deepen bilateral economic and trade relations [9]. - In 2025, China's futures market had a cumulative trading volume of 9.074 billion lots and a cumulative trading value of 766.25 trillion yuan, up 17.4% and 23.74% year - on - year respectively [9]. - U.S. initial jobless claims rose moderately last week, and the year - end lay - off scale remained relatively low [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of January 8, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 157.27 million tons, up 11.67% from last Wednesday [11]. - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, down 2.37% month - on - month and up 27.04% year - on - year [13]. - After the holiday, the domestic PTA supply increased slightly, demand was relatively stable, and the balance sheet continued to destock. As of January 7, 2026, the average PTA processing margin was 336.2 yuan/ton, up 17.23% year - on - year [13]. - Trump is planning to dominate Venezuela's oil industry to push oil prices down to $50 per barrel [13]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory dropped to a 3 - week low as of the week ending January 7 [14]. - The target weights of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and natural gas in the 2026 Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will be adjusted, which will affect the allocation of related funds [15]. - An oil tanker associated with Russia's "shadow fleet" was attacked in the Black Sea [15]. Metal Futures - China's power and energy storage battery industry has developed rapidly but faces issues such as blind construction and irrational competition, which need to be regulated [18]. - HSBC believes that gold prices may reach $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026 due to geopolitical risks and rising fiscal debt [19]. - The market regulator may have asked the photovoltaic industry to rectify monopoly - related issues, and polysilicon may return to marginal cost - based pricing [19][21]. - On January 8, 2026, a 17,800 - ton lithium concentrate tender was won at a price of 15,015 yuan/dry ton [20]. - The silver weight in the 2026 Bloomberg weight allocation will be significantly reduced, which may lead to the selling of silver positions by related funds [21]. - The CME will raise the performance margins of precious metal futures on January 9 after the market close [22][49]. Black - Series Futures - Indonesia may approve a coal production quota of about 600 million tons in 2026 and adjust its nickel quota according to industry demand [24][50]. - As of the week ending January 8, rebar production increased for the fourth consecutive week, factory and social inventories turned from decreasing to increasing, and apparent demand decreased for the third consecutive week [24]. Agricultural Futures - Analysts expect the U.S. 2025/26 soybean ending stocks to be 292 million bushels [26]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release the quarterly grain inventory report on January 12, and analysts expect the U.S. soybean inventory to increase by 4.8% year - on - year [26]. - Indonesia may raise the palm oil export tax due to financial constraints [26]. - Brazil's ANEC expects January soybean exports to reach 2.4 million tons and corn exports to be 2.85 million tons [28]. - U.S. 2025/2026 soybean export net sales were 878,000 tons, in line with market expectations [28]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% but still having 15 consecutive positive lines. The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index declined, while the Wind All - A Index rose 0.08%. The market turnover was 2.83 trillion yuan [30]. - Hong Kong stocks oscillated downward, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.17%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.05%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 1.09%. Southbound funds had a net selling of HK$4.9 billion [30]. - As of January 7, 2026, the margin trading balance in the A - share market reached 2.6047 trillion yuan, hitting a new high [31]. - Ping An Life Insurance made its fourth successful bid for China Merchants Bank's H - shares and Agricultural Bank of China's H - shares, each holding 20% of the total H - share capital [33]. - HSBC's proposal to privatize Hang Seng Bank was approved [33]. - There are rumors that霸王茶姬 is considering a Hong Kong listing, but the company responded that it has no such plan for now [34]. Industry - The market regulator has asked the photovoltaic industry to rectify monopoly - related issues [35]. - The four - department meeting called for regulating the power and energy storage battery industry to prevent over - capacity [35]. - Many car companies in China have launched promotional activities at the beginning of the year to offset the impact of the new energy vehicle purchase tax increase [35]. - Banks have adjusted the risk access level for individual gold accumulation business [35]. - The Sichuan Medical Insurance Bureau has clarified the prices of invasive brain - computer interface implantation in different - level medical institutions [37]. - The AI search market competition pattern is changing, with Google Gemini's daily web page visits increasing and ChatGPT's decreasing [37]. Overseas - Trump expects the U.S. to "manage" Venezuela for many years, develop its oil reserves, and increase the military budget in the 2027 fiscal year [38]. - The U.S. Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs on Friday, and if the government loses, importers may seek a refund of about $150 billion in tariffs [38]. - Trump has ordered the U.S. to withdraw from 66 international organizations [38]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary hopes to lower interest rates, and a Fed governor expects a 150 - basis - point rate cut in 2026, which may create about one million jobs without causing inflation [38]. - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office expects the U.S. GDP growth rate to accelerate to 2.2% in 2026, with a PCE inflation rate of 2.7% and a decreasing unemployment rate [39]. - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly in October 2025, with exports reaching a record high and imports decreasing [41]. - U.S. initial jobless claims rose slightly last week, and the December lay - off number was at a 17 - month low [41]. - Ukraine and the U.S. are close to finalizing a bilateral security agreement [42]. - The Bank of Japan maintained its assessment of the economic situation in all 9 regions, and many Japanese enterprises plan to raise wages in 2026, while the actual wage in November 2025 declined year - on - year [42]. International Stocks - U.S. major stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.55%, the S&P 500 up 0.01%, and the Nasdaq down 0.44%. Chinese concept stocks mostly rose [43]. - European major stock indexes closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.02%, the French CAC40 up 0.12%, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.04% [43]. - The Japanese stock market fell for the second consecutive day, while the South Korean Composite Index rose slightly [45]. - After the U.S. military raid on Venezuela, Venezuelan assets soared, with the Caracas stock index up about 124% in U.S. dollars [46]. - Samsung Electronics' Q4 2025 operating profit and sales reached new highs due to the rising prices of memory chips [46]. Commodity - The same as the overnight night - market trends section for commodity futures performance [47]. - The CME will raise the performance margins of precious metal futures and lower those of most natural gas contracts [49]. - Trump plans to dominate Venezuela's oil industry and discuss selling up to 50 million barrels of oil [49]. - The ICE will extend the trading hours of UK and EU natural gas and power contracts to 22 hours per day by February 23 [49]. Bond - China's bond market warmed up, with the yields of interest - rate bonds generally falling, and the 30 - year Treasury futures main contract rising 0.37%. Vanke bonds generally rose [51]. - In 2025, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors supported over 2300 enterprises to issue debt financing instruments worth 10.1 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 1.7 trillion yuan and an average issuance interest rate of 2.05% [51]. - JD Group may issue dim - sum bonds with a potential scale of about 10 billion yuan [52]. - U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board [52]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose 105 points at the 16:30 close on Thursday, and the RMB central parity rate against the U.S. dollar was depreciated by 10 points [53]. - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.13% at the New York close, and most non - U.S. currencies declined [53]. - South Korea's Ministry of Finance believes that the foreign exchange market is highly volatile, and the exchange rate does not match the economic fundamentals [53]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Various economic data such as South Korea's November current account, Japan's December foreign exchange reserves, China's December CPI/PPI, etc., will be released at different times [55]. - Events including Trump's policy meeting, the press conference on the progress of national water network construction, and the European Central Bank Chief Economist's speech are scheduled [57].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Gold has officially surpassed US Treasuries to become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in thirty years. As of the end of 2025, the value of global official gold reserves held overseas by the US reached $3.93 trillion, exceeding the value of overseas official US Treasuries, which was nearly $3.88 trillion as of October last year [2]. - US President Trump has agreed to promote a bill to strengthen sanctions against Russia. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that normal economic and energy cooperation between China and Russia does not target third - parties and should not be interfered with [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation recently约谈 the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six leading polysilicon enterprises, warning of monopoly risks and setting restrictions on production and price - related agreements [2]. - Indonesia may approve about 600 million tons of coal production quotas in 2026 and adjust its nickel quotas according to industry demand. The domestic demand for nickel ore in Indonesian smelters is expected to rise from about 300 million tons in 2025 to about 340 - 350 million tons in 2026 [2]. - CME announced on January 8 (local time) that it will raise the performance bond for precious metal varieties after the market on January 9, which is the third such notice in the past month [3]. 2. Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, crude oil, and plastic [4]. 3. Night - session Performance - **Plate Performance**: The night - session price changes of different commodity futures sectors are as follows: non - metallic building materials 2.17%, precious metals 30.68%, oilseeds 8.01%, non - ferrous metals 28.17%, soft commodities 3.26%, coal, coking, and steel 10.67%, energy 2.41%, chemicals 10.22%, grains 1.16%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.25% [4]. - **Plate Position**: The document shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of major stock indices are provided. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily change of - 0.07%, a monthly change of 2.88%, and an annual change of 2.88% [6]. - **Fixed - income**: The daily, monthly, and annual changes of different - term treasury bond futures are presented. For instance, the 10 - year treasury bond futures had a daily change of 0.15%, a monthly change of - 0.06%, and an annual change of - 0.06% [6]. - **Commodity**: The performance of commodities such as the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and the Wind commodity index is shown. For example, WTI crude oil had a daily change of 4.27%, a monthly change of 1.53%, and an annual change of 1.53% [6]. - **Other**: The daily, monthly, and annual changes of the US dollar index and the CBOE volatility index are given. The US dollar index had a daily change of 0.12%, a monthly change of 0.60%, and an annual change of 0.60% [6]. 5. Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents the trends of various commodities including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, and agricultural products such as CBOT soybeans and CBOT corn, as well as relevant ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio, and stock market risk premiums [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the lower end. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, it remains relatively strong year-on-year. A slight decline in off-season demand is normal. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. From the cost side, the strength of coking coal and coke and the sharp rise of iron ore provide strong cost support. The total inventory is relatively high, posing some pressure. On Wednesday, the entire black series rose sharply, with high enthusiasm. The hot-rolled coil futures broke through upwards with heavy volume. On Thursday, it tested the support level during intraday trading. It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach and it is relatively safe to buy on dips. It is expected to continue to rise strongly [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 63,008 lots, with a trading volume of 696,880 lots, showing a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,302 yuan, and the high was 3,348 yuan. It fluctuated within the day with intense washing. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it stood above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, showing strength. It closed at 3,317 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton, or 0.48% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 3 yuan, close to flat water [2] Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. It was up 16,200 tons year-on-year. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates by some steel mills, and the resumption of production after the end of the annual maintenance of steel mills. The supply has increased, and the subsequent increase needs to be observed [3] - Demand side: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent consumption declined slightly, but it was up 72,500 tons year-on-year. The demand still showed resilience [3] - Inventory side: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons week-on-week (social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The total inventory was at a five-year high. The inventory still exerted pressure on prices [3] - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involutionary competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply-side output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace charge [5] - Bearish factors: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1750 1750 0 河南 1750 1750 0 山东 1760 1750 10 山西 1610 1620 -10 江苏 1760 1760 0 安徽 1750 1750 0 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1780 1780 0 河北东光 1730 1730 0 山东华鲁 1730 1720 10 江苏灵谷 1790 1780 10 安徽昊源 1720 1720 0 山东05基差 -38 -48 10 山东01基差 -5 -10 5 河北05基差 -38 -38 0 河北01基差 -5 0 -5 1-5价差 84 86 -2 5-9价差 33 38 -5 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 12850 12619 231 中东FOB 397 397 0 美湾FOB 391.5 391.5 0 埃及FOB 447.5 447.5 0 波罗的海FOB 375 375 0 巴西CFR 415 415 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 仓单 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 8, new maintenance devices were added, causing the plastic operating rate to drop to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The overall PE downstream operating rate remains at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the improvement in the plastic supply - demand pattern is limited, so the recent upward space for plastics is expected to be limited. Due to new production capacity coming on - stream and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - New maintenance devices were added on January 8, and the plastic operating rate decreased to around 87%. As of the week ending January 2, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The new year's inventory accumulation was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. Crude oil prices are still weak. There are new plastic production capacities coming on - stream, the downstream operating rate is expected to decline, and downstream enterprises have low purchasing willingness. Although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the plastic supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to fall [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6605 yuan/ton, the highest was 6720 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6628 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.05%. The position volume decreased by 379 lots to 505,299 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price fluctuations between - 100 and + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6400 - 6670 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8550 - 9010 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6700 - 8290 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1 Supply - On January 8, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [1][4]. 3.3.2 Demand - As of the week ending January 2, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline. The packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. 3.3.3 Inventory - On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 3.5 tons to 57.5 tons week - on - week, the same as the same period last year. The new year's inventory accumulation was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1][4]. 3.3.4 Raw Materials - The Brent crude oil 03 contract dropped to $60/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $745/ton [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - PP is expected to have limited upside potential due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and shorter downstream order cycles, despite a warm macro - atmosphere [1]. - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there is new plastic production capacity coming online and the agricultural film peak season is ending [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - As of the week ending January 2nd, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 52.76% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of拉丝, dropped by 0.60 percentage points to 43.14%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - On January 8th, new maintenance units such as Fujian United's second - line were added. The PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 78.5%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard product拉丝 decreased to around 22.5% [1][4]. - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - On the cost side, although the US military raid on Venezuela has caused geopolitical concerns, the key oil facilities in the country are intact, and its production accounts for less than 1% of the global supply. Trump said Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and the crude oil price remains weak [1]. - There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders continue to decline, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement [1]. - In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose to the expansion range. The Ministry of Finance has pre - allocated the 2026 trade - in and "two - heavy" quotas, which warms the macro - atmosphere and boosts market sentiment [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6456 yuan/ton, the highest was 6532 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6484 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.31%. The open interest decreased by 8586 lots to 511,792 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions were stable. The price of拉丝 was reported at 6020 - 6480 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 8th, new maintenance units were added, the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 78.5%, and the production ratio of standard product拉丝 decreased to around 22.5% [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending January 2nd, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 52.76% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of拉丝, dropped by 0.60 percentage points to 43.14%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 35,000 tons to 575,000 tons week - on - week, the same as the same period last year. The current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract dropped to $60/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5/ton to $745/ton week - on - week [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：回调整理 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 【行情分析】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 今日尿素高开高走，日内收跌。成交放缓，情绪随期货盘面回调，前期待 发支撑。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1680-1730 元/ 吨，河南个别厂成交价偏低端，山东工厂报价偏高端。基本面来看，停车装置 陆续复产，整体日产环比增加，供应充裕依然压制盘面高度。市场成交活跃度 下降，农业需求处于淡季，下一季的集中农需大约为农历年前后的小麦返青追 肥。环保预警解除后，复合肥开工回升，但临近年末假期，上升空间有限，备 肥谨慎下，对尿素上涨缺乏弹性，其他工业需求方面，三聚氰胺开工负荷环比 回升 6.7 个百分点，需求韧性为主，无明显增量。本期厂内库存转为小幅累 库，虽市场行情火爆，但下游需求有限，库存并未流畅去化。今日尿素价格 ...

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