Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate significantly in the near term, and the far - month asphalt/near - month crude oil will oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable last week. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. The high - price transactions of low - sulfur asphalt in Northeast China were sluggish, and the refinery shipments were blocked, with a large decrease in shipments. The national shipments decreased 3.22% to 263,100 tons week - on - week, at a neutral level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years. The US military attack on Venezuela may affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt, and attention should be paid to the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries. This week, the main refineries in East China intermittently shut down, and the asphalt operating rate remained low [1]. - Demand side: Road construction in the North is gradually ending, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, but the winter storage demand in the North continues to be released. The overall demand in the South is average, and the low - price supply from southern refineries has decreased. The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 0.70% to 3,132 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,128 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,188 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 2,081 to 224,334 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,070 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 62 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Zhongyou Gaofu shut down for maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical switched production. The asphalt operating rate dropped 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025 but was still negative. From January to November 2025, the actual cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 4.7%, a slight decline from - 4.3% from January to October 2025, still in a cumulative year - on - year negative growth situation. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was - 1.1%, a further decline from - 0.1% from January to October 2025. As of the week of January 2, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable, and the road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, the same as that from January to October [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 2, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased 0.7 percentage points to 12.9% compared with the week of December 26, and was near the lowest level in recent years [4].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The crude oil price is in a weak and volatile state. The market is in a supply - surplus pattern due to factors such as high global crude oil floating storage, increased Middle - East exports, and concerns over demand, despite the OPEC+ decision to maintain the production plan and the unexpected draw in US crude oil inventories [1]. Summary by Directory 1.行情分析 - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026, with the next meeting scheduled for February 1 [1]. - During the off - season of crude oil demand, EIA data shows that US crude inventories declined more than expected, but refined product inventories increased more than expected, and overall oil product inventories continued to rise [1]. - US crude production slightly increased and remained near the historical high, and the number of US rigs continued to rise slightly [1]. - After the US - Ukraine talks, there were developments regarding the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and there were statements about post - cease - fire troop deployments. Trump also warned India on Russian oil purchases [1]. - The crack spreads of refined products in Europe and the US were low. The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased and had been below 50 for 10 consecutive months, leading to market concerns about crude oil demand [1]. - The global crude oil market had shown signs of digesting the restricted Venezuelan exports. The US government asked oil companies to invest in Venezuela, but the industry was cautious. Trump said Venezuela would transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US [1]. 2.期现行情 - The futures price of the main crude oil futures contract 2602 on the day fell 2.02% to 416.2 yuan/ton, with a low of 414.1 yuan/ton and a high of 422.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 98 to 33,068 lots [2]. 3.基本面跟踪 - EIA raised the US crude production forecast for Q4 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 13.86 million barrels per day, increased non - OPEC+ oil supply by 50,000 barrels per day, and raised global crude production by 300,000 barrels per day. It also lowered global oil demand for Q4 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day [3]. - IEA raised the global oil demand growth rate for 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day and for 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day. It also lowered the global oil supply growth rate for 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day and for 2026 by 20,000 barrels per day [3]. - OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth rate for 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and for 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - On the evening of January 7, EIA data showed that US crude inventories for the week ended January 2 decreased by 3.832 million barrels (expected to increase by 447,000 barrels), 4.08% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 7.702 million barrels (expected to increase by 3.186 million barrels), and refined oil inventories increased by 5.594 million barrels (expected to increase by 2.109 million barrels). Cushing crude inventories increased by 728,000 barrels [3]. 4. Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report showed that its October crude production was cut by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its November 2025 production decreased by 1,000 barrels per day to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly due to production cuts in Iraq and Iran [4]. - OPEC+ crude production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared to October, reaching 43.06 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude production for the week ended January 2 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 13.811 million barrels per day and remained near the historical high [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude products decreased to 19.871 million barrels per day, 1.68% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline and diesel weekly demands both decreased, driving the weekly supply of US crude products to decrease by 0.77% month - on - month [4][6].

Report Summary - **Industry Investment Rating**: The report does not provide an investment rating for the PVC industry. Instead, it suggests a "wait - and - see" approach for PVC [1]. - **Core View**: The PVC market shows a trend of downward oscillation. Although the macro - environment is favorable, factors such as high inventory, weak downstream demand, and limited export demand put pressure on the PVC price. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Grouped by Report Sections 1.行情分析 (Market Analysis) - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.40 percentage points to 78.63%, while the downstream operating rate decreased by 0.58 percentage points due to poor orders [1]. - Last week, export orders decreased slightly. The prices in the Indian market are low, and the demand is limited. The CFR India and CFR Southeast Asia prices dropped by 20 USD/ton and 30 USD/ton respectively [1]. - Social inventory continued to rise and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas from January to November 2025 [1]. - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. New production capacity, such as the 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua, has recently started trial production [1]. - The macro - environment is favorable, but the comprehensive gross margin of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the output decline is currently limited, with high futures warehouse receipts [1]. 2.期现行情 (Futures and Spot Market) - The PVC2605 contract decreased by 0.99% to close at 4905 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4075 lots in open interest to 1,036,668 lots. The price fluctuated between 4871 yuan/ton and 4992 yuan/ton and was above the 20 - day moving average [2]. - The mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4650 yuan/ton on January 8. The basis of V2605 was - 255 yuan/ton, strengthening by 47 yuan/ton and remaining at a relatively low level [3]. 3.基本面跟踪 (Fundamental Analysis) - On the supply side, some devices such as Jiangsu Xinpu and Ningbo Hanwha resumed production. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.40 percentage points to 78.63%, at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - New production capacity, including Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year), was put into operation in the second half of the year. Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4]. - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in adjustment. From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. Various indicators such as sales area, new construction area, and completion area all declined year - on - year [5]. - As of the week of January 4, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 26.09% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [5]. - As of the week of December 31, PVC social inventory increased by 1.45% week - on - week to 1.0766 million tons, 36.24% higher than the same period last year, remaining at a high level [6].

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 需求端：淡季效应深化，冬储谨慎，截至 1 月 8 日当周，表观消费 量周环比下降 25.48 万吨至 174.96 万吨，年同比下降 15.09 万吨，北方地 方施工停滞，南方工期收尾，表需连续三周下降，后续关注冬储需求启动。 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周四持仓量增仓 40418 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 1350602 手。全天震荡回落后尾盘企稳回升，均线来看站 上 5 日，20 日均线，最低 3156，最高 3198，收于 3168 元/吨，上涨 14 元/吨， 涨幅 0.44%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3310 元/吨，相 比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 142 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面冬 储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 库存端：库存开始增库，截止 1 月 8 日当周，总库存周环比上升 16.08 万吨至 438.11 万吨，连续 9 周去化之后开始累库，其中社会库存 290.18 万 吨，周环比上升 7.52 万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Iron ore fundamentals show that supply-side new shipments are gradually decreasing, demand is slightly recovering, and although port inventories are still increasing, they are gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. With the futures contract in a back structure and positive basis, along with the recent general rise in commodity price sentiment, the futures and spot markets form a certain resonance. In the short term, there may be some corrections, but overall, it still shows a gradually strengthening trend in a volatile pattern [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract fell to 813 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton (-1.81%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a trading volume of 443,000 lots, an open interest of 637,000 lots (a reduction of 29,000 lots), and a settled capital of 11.388 billion yuan. The price faced pressure near the previous high of 840 and pulled back [1] - Spot prices of mainstream port varieties declined slightly. The PB powder at Qingdao Port dropped 3 to 829 yuan/ton, the Super Special powder dropped 3 to 707 yuan/ton, and the main swap contract was at 107.9 (-1.1) US dollars/ton [1] - The PB powder at Qingdao Port was converted to a futures price of 860.7 yuan/ton, with a basis of 47.7 yuan/ton (the basis widened). The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 45 yuan, and the spread between contracts 5 - 9 was 21 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and positive basis. Although there was a short - term weak correction, the overall trend continued to strengthen gradually in a volatile manner [1] Fundamental Analysis - At the end of the year, overseas mine shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions all weakened. Although the current arrival volume increased month - on - month, it is expected that the previous high shipments will still support high arrival volumes. There are expected disturbances on the supply side [2] - On the demand side, hot metal production recovered month - on - month as blast furnaces resumed production after maintenance. The profitability rate of steel mills slightly recovered, and inventory replenishment gradually started but at a slow pace. There is still an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. After the sharp rise in futures and spot prices, port trading volume decreased significantly month - on - month [2] - In terms of inventory, port inventories continued to accumulate, and the number of congested ships increased slightly. The inventory pressure is still building up. Steel mill inventories increased to some extent but are still significantly lower than historical levels, and the release of inventory replenishment demand is still slow [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, policy expectations for the first quarter of 2026 are rising. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The national subsidy policy for 2026 has been released, with some optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two major" construction projects and the central budget investment plan for the early batch of 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and is accelerating the allocation and use of various funds. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission has recently approved or approved multiple major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds not fully disbursed in October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [3] - Overseas, Trump may announce the nomination for the new chairman of the Federal Reserve in January. Currently, Hassett is still the most popular candidate, and the interest rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, the recent significant increase in Zhengzhou cotton futures is mainly driven by the expected reduction in domestic supply in 2026 under policy guidance, and the tight expectation of commercial inventory in the middle and late stages of the year due to stable consumption. However, the cotton yarn market is relatively calm, with limited price increases and poor new - order feedback. The downstream weaving industry has inventory - reduction pressure and is not actively replenishing stocks. The price increase space of cotton is restricted, and it may adjust next week, with limited downside space and support near the 20 - day moving average [1]. - For sugar, as of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Yunnan in the 2025/26 sugar - making season was 392,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,400 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 281,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,300 tons. The domestic production and sales data basically met market expectations. The international sugar market is calm, and the ICE raw sugar futures price is range - bound. The Indian sugar production is progressing smoothly, but the current price limits its export willingness. The international sugar price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [1]. - The basis between sugar futures and spot has basically been repaired, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month contracts still face large supply pressure, with weak short - term upward momentum. The large price difference between domestic and international markets may attract more imports, and it may be advisable to buy on dips near the out - of - quota import cost [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Topics Cotton - The core drivers of the recent significant increase in Zhengzhou cotton futures are the expected reduction in domestic supply in 2026 under policy guidance and the tight expectation of commercial inventory in the middle and late stages of the year due to stable consumption [1]. - The cotton yarn market is calm, with spinning enterprises slightly increasing prices, but new orders from downstream are not positive, and the actual price increase is limited. The downstream weaving industry has inventory - reduction pressure and is not actively replenishing stocks at the end of the year [1]. - The price increase space of cotton is restricted due to the ineffective transmission of upstream price increases to the downstream. It may adjust next week, with limited downside space and support near the 20 - day moving average [1]. Sugar - As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Yunnan in the 2025/26 sugar - making season was 392,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,400 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 281,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,300 tons. The domestic production and sales data basically met market expectations [1]. - The international sugar market is calm, the ICE raw sugar futures price is range - bound, the Indian sugar production is progressing smoothly, but the current price limits its export willingness. The international sugar price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [1]. - The basis between sugar futures and spot has basically been repaired, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month contracts still face large supply pressure, with weak short - term upward momentum. The large price difference between domestic and international markets may attract more imports, and it may be advisable to buy on dips near the out - of - quota import cost [2].

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Short-term shock is strong [1] - **Core View**: Recently, glass production lines have successively undergone cold repairs, and the short-term supply contraction has improved the phased supply-demand structure. Coupled with the positive market sentiment, the short-term price may maintain a strong shock. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in macro policies and the cold repair of production lines [4] Market Review - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract opened low and moved high, strengthening during the day. The three tracks of the 120-minute Bollinger Bands opened upwards, indicating a short-term continuation of the strong shock signal. The intraday pressure was near the previous high, and the support was near today's low. The trading volume decreased by 248,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest increased by 67,492 lots compared to yesterday. The intraday high was 1171, the low was 1136, and the closing price was 1163, up 30 yuan/ton (2.65%) from yesterday's settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The overall production and sales were good. Except for the stable prices in the northwest region, enterprises in other regions raised prices. In North China, the market transaction was good, and manufacturers' psychology of holding prices gradually emerged. In East China, downstream demand replenishment was the main factor, and prices were temporarily stable. In Central China, the transaction was okay, and individual manufacturers in Hubei raised prices. In South China, downstream procurement was appropriate, and the center of gravity moved up [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was -143 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the daily average output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared to the 1st. The national float glass output was 1.0592 million tons, a decrease of 1.32% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year. The average industry start-up rate was 71.96%, a decrease of 1.08% month-on-month; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a decrease of 1.03% month-on-month. The design capacity of the first line in Chenzhou of Hunan Qibin Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. was 1000 tons/day, and it was expected to be water-cooled and repaired today. The design capacity of Yunnan Diankai Energy-saving Technology Co., Ltd. was 520 tons/day, and it stopped feeding last night, and the output is expected to further shrink [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million weight boxes month-on-month, a decrease of 2.37% month-on-month and an increase of 27.04% year-on-year. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared to the previous period. At present, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is showing a downward trend. Most regions are driven by sales policies, the market sentiment has improved, and the production capacity has been reduced, which has boosted the transfer of enterprise inventory to the middle and lower reaches, and there is still a downward expectation in the future [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep-processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month and 16.1% year-on-year. At present, engineering orders are gradually ending, and the executable days of orders are decreasing, currently concentrated in 10-15 days. Home improvement and other types are still mainly low-value scattered orders [2][3] Main Logic Summary - Supply-side production lines using natural gas as fuel have long-term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke as fuel are also in a loss state, accelerating the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity. Six glass production lines were water-cooled and repaired before New Year's Day, and three more production lines were cold-repaired this week, further shrinking the supply. However, real estate development investment and capital availability both continued to decline year-on-year, and completion and new construction were weak, with no improvement in real estate demand [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market shows a state of strong supply and weak demand, with significant upward pressure and should be treated weakly [3] - The styrene market is in the off - season demand in the first quarter. Although it may be boosted by the short - term rebound sentiment of commodities, the demand pressure is still obvious, and the industry should appropriately participate in hedging [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 29, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%. From December 22 - 28, the estimated arrival was about 39,500 tons and the提货 was about 12,500 tons. During the period, the inventory in 3 warehouses increased and 4 remained stable [1] - As of January 5, 2026, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period. According to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Trump and his advisors are planning a large - scale plan to dominate the Venezuelan oil industry in the coming years, aiming to push the oil price down to $50 per barrel [2] - On January 8, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1.1 trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene fluctuated slightly during the day, with significant upward pressure and a state of strong supply and weak demand [3] - Styrene fluctuated slightly, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line. Affected by the short - term rebound sentiment of commodities, it may be boosted to some extent, but the demand pressure is still obvious [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures price dropped 2.15% intraday, with support at the 60-day moving average on the daily chart. There is pressure due to short - term inventory accumulation and general downstream demand, but imports may slow in January, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. Attention can be paid to buying opportunities after the price pull - back. The key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of Iranian plants after gas restrictions [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 7, 2026, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 4.08 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 57,200 tons, while that in South China decreased by 16,400 tons. This week, port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang, with 227,100 tons of visible foreign vessel unloading. Jiangsu's mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River had stable pick - up, but inland delivery led to weak shipments at riverside warehouses. In Zhejiang, with concentrated foreign vessel arrivals and stable demand, inventory increased significantly. South China's port inventory decreased slightly. In Guangdong, with a small amount of imports and domestic vessels replenishing and reduced pick - up due to holidays, inventory changed little. In Fujian, with no vessel arrivals and downstream rigid demand consumption, inventory decreased [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump and his advisors are planning a large - scale plan to dominate Venezuela's oil industry in the coming years. Trump believes this can push oil prices down to his preferred level of $50 per barrel. - On January 8, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months (90 days) through fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid methods [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures price dropped 2.15% intraday, with support at the 60 - day moving average on the daily chart. Short - term inventory accumulation and general downstream demand create pressure. However, imports may slow in January, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. Attention can be paid to buying opportunities after the price pull - back. The key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of Iranian plants after gas restrictions [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期延续反弹 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 12 月 31 日，独立焦企焦炭库存环比回落 0.69%至 91.6 万 吨，而钢厂焦炭库存累增 0.28%至 643.99 万吨，港口焦炭库存小降至 243.09 万 吨，焦炭综合库存微增 0.04 万吨至 978.68 万吨，同比增幅缩窄至 2.93%。 消息方面，7 号陕西省榆林市政府在相关会议上通报称，因 2024 一 2025 年 电煤保供落实不到位，核增产能的 52 处煤矿中，有 26 处煤矿被调出保供名单并 核减产能 1900 万吨。央行工作会议 1 月 5 日-6 日召开，继续实施适度宽松的货 币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应。美联储理事米兰表示，美联储 2026 年需要降息超过一个百分点，并认为当前的货币政策正在限制经济增长。 主要逻辑，焦炭的供需格局直接受制于上游的焦煤成本、下游钢铁需求以及 宏观政策导向；焦炭综合库存已至中等偏高水平、供需整体偏弱。下游钢厂季节 性累库阶段，铁水产量略有回升、按需补库，对短期需求有所提振。宏观方面， 国内央行和美联储降息预期极大提振市场 ...