【冠通研究】 宏观扰动加剧，盘面继续走低 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 9 日 【策略分析】 宏观扰动加剧，盘面继续走低 关税政策继续加码，贸易冲突加剧，商品市场延续悲观情绪，黑色系继续走低。 国际贸易形式恶化叠加中国钢材买单出口调查加严，成材出口需求预期偏弱，向 上传导，或抑制铁水增幅，铁矿石基本面短期仍有支撑。近期商品市场受宏观风 险影响较大，盘面波动较大，短期看宏观悲观情绪仍在释放，铁矿石震荡偏弱思 路对待。09 合约面临供应回升和材端出口走弱的压力。操作上，单边观望，5-9 正套继续持有。 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【期货行情】 铁矿石 2509 小时 K 矿石 2509 合约前二十名多头持仓为 299572 手，-4910 手，前二十名空头持仓为 314173 手，-4680 手，多减空减。 【基本面跟踪】 产业方面：外矿方面，3 月 31 日-4 月 6 日，全球铁矿石发运总量 2921.9 万吨， 环比减少 265.9 万吨。澳洲发运量 1659.2 万吨，环比减少 327.2 万吨，其中澳 洲发往中国 ...

【冠通研究】 行情弱势整理，基本面承压 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 9 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约低开高走震荡收涨，前半周受关税政策影响盘面弱势运行，现 货市场同样受情绪压制，两日降价后今日低价货源成交好转，触发部分工厂停售 或小幅调涨。供给端，春季多发临检本周仍有三家工厂有检修计划，但前期检修 企业也有复产，日产稳定为主，华锦、渭河等有检修计划，天庆田原等本周复产。 需求端，下游低价货源买进。水稻农需备肥零星跟进，下一轮集中备肥系 6 月左 右农需备肥，复合肥原料价格近日下降，利润回暖，但企业成品库存增加，工厂 开工负荷降低，春季肥已达尾声，夏季肥进展有限，预计本月开工负荷继续走低。 三聚氰胺开工率稳中上移，工业需求依然维持刚性。本期上游工厂出现累库，清 明假期期间下游接货力度不足，弱势低价下，需求跟进缓慢，工厂出现累库。整 体来说，尿素目前受宏观影响较小，基本面偏弱，需求端环比走弱，盘面震荡偏 弱为主，主力合约关注 1780-1900 元/吨区间宽幅震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2505 合约 1785 元/吨低开高走午后翻红，盘面震荡收 涨，最终收于 1830 元/吨，收成一根阳线， ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International oil prices dropped significantly, with the May contract of US crude falling 4.07% to $58.23 per barrel and the June contract of Brent crude falling 4.11% to $61.57 per barrel [2] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.83% at $2998.3 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.49% at $29.75 per ounce [3] - London base metals all closed lower, with LME copper down 1.45% at $8588 per ton, LME zinc down 3.51% at $2553 per ton, etc [3] - CBOT agricultural futures contracts all closed higher, with soybean futures up 0.97% at 992.5 cents per bushel, corn futures up 0.97% at 469 cents per bushel, etc [3] - Most domestic commodity futures closed lower at night. Energy - chemicals, black - series, and base metals generally declined, while some agricultural products rose and some fell. Shanghai gold and silver rose [4][50][51] 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - China firmly opposes the US threat to impose an additional 50% tariff on China and will take counter - measures if the US tariff measures are implemented [6] - The US Chamber of Commerce is considering suing the Trump administration to block new tariffs [6] - Shanghai Stock Exchange held a symposium with 10 securities firms, and the firms are optimistic about the development of China's capital market [7] Energy and Chemical Futures - The cost of transporting diesel from the Rhine to inland Europe reached the highest seasonal level since at least 2009 [11] - As of April 7, domestic asphalt social and factory inventories increased slightly [11] - Goldman Sachs expects Brent and WTI crude oil prices to decline in December 2025 and December 2026 [12][53] - Russia's oil exports declined for the second consecutive week [14] Metal Futures - Some European investors are moving gold out of the US due to concerns about US trade policies [16] - In March 2025, China's lithium carbonate production increased, and the expected production in April decreased [16] - In March, global gold ETFs had significant inflows, and the total asset management scale reached a record high [16] Black - series Futures - A silicon - iron factory in Gansu stopped production for maintenance, reducing daily output [18] - Trump signed an executive order to promote the US coal industry [18] - China's 47 - port imported iron ore inventory decreased, while Australian and Brazilian port inventories increased [20] Agricultural Futures - Indonesia will adjust the export tax on crude palm oil to relieve the burden on exporters [22][54] - As of April 6, EU's imports of soybeans and rapeseeds increased, while palm oil imports decreased compared to the same period last year [22] - As of April 8, the port inventory of soybean oil decreased [23] 3. Financial Markets Finance - The Securities Association of China organized securities companies to conduct stress tests in 2025 [25] - In 2024, the securities industry's revenue and net profit increased, and self - operating business was the largest source of income [27] - Two new science - innovation board AI ETFs applied for registration, and the number of science - innovation board ETFs increased [27] - In March, the number of private securities fund products filed reached a new high [27] - Six companies' science - innovation comprehensive index ETF linked funds were established, bringing in incremental funds [27] - Some small and medium - sized banks and private banks in China adjusted deposit and large - deposit certificate interest rates [28] Real Estate - Multiple cities are researching and preparing real - estate market stabilization policies [29] - In March, the trading volume of new and second - hand houses in first - and second - tier cities increased significantly [31] - In the first quarter, the transfer fee of residential land in 300 cities increased, and the average premium rate rose [31] Industry - The "buy - now - get - refund" service for tax - free shopping will be promoted nationwide from April 8 [33] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to accelerate the construction of a new information infrastructure standard system [33] - A new national standard for intelligent household appliances' voice interaction technology will be implemented on September 1, 2025 [34] - The scale of China's liquid - cooled server market is expected to grow rapidly from 2024 - 2029 [34] Overseas - Lawrence Summers believes that US tariff measures may lead to an economic recession and job losses [36] - Trump is promoting the US coal industry [36] - Canada will impose a 25% tariff on US cars [37] - Morgan Stanley lowered its forecast for US GDP growth in 2025 [37] - South Korea will hold early elections on June 3 and announce an additional budget plan [38] 4. International Stock Markets - Most Chinese concept stocks fell, while some rose [43] - Tariffs may cause a nearly 30% price increase for Apple's iPhone 16 Pro Max [44] - Micron Technology will charge additional fees related to tariffs from April 9 [45] - Leapmotor and Hesai Technology reached a strategic cooperation [46] - Porsche's global car deliveries decreased in Q1 2025 [47] - DHL Group will invest 2 billion euros in the life - science and healthcare logistics sector in the next five years [48] - Samsung Electronics' Q1 2025 operating profit slightly decreased, while sales increased [49] 5. Commodities - Most domestic commodity futures closed lower at night, with different trends in different sectors [4][50][51] - Shanghai plans to boost its commodity trade scale by 2027 [51] - The price of rice in Japanese supermarkets has been rising for 13 consecutive weeks [52] - US API crude oil inventory decreased last week [55] - The price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate reached a six - month low [56] - The Baltic Dry Index declined for 11 consecutive days [57] 6. Bonds - The bond market declined, and the central bank increased net investment [58] - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds rising and some falling [59] - The Ministry of Finance will issue several types of treasury bonds [60] - Jiangsu encourages enterprises to issue innovation - related bonds with government subsidy [61] - Some bonds will be redeemed, and some companies' credit ratings were adjusted [61] 7. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined on Tuesday [62] 8. Upcoming Events - Economic data releases include South Korea's March unemployment rate, Japan's March consumer confidence index, etc [65] - Policy - related events include China's central bank's open - market operations, New Zealand's and India's central bank interest - rate decisions, etc [67]

早盘速递 2025/4/9 热点资讯 1、 商务部表示，中方注意到，美东时间4月7日，美方威胁进一步对华加征50%关税，中方对此坚决反对。如果美方升级关税措 施落地，中方将坚决采取反制措施维护自身权益。 2、 力挺资本市场，多方发声！中央汇金称将持续加大增持ETF规模和力度，并首次提出类"平准基金"定位。央行同步宣布， 将通过再贷款向汇金提供充足资金支持。同时，金融监管总局上调保险公司权益投资比例，加大对资本市场和实体经济的支持 力度。国务院国资委亦表态称，将全力支持推动中央企业及其控股上市公司主动作为，不断加大增持回购力度。另据全国社会 保障基金理事会消息，全国社会保障基金理事会近日已主动增持国内股票，近期将继续增持。 3、 据中指研究院统计，一季度，核心城市加快优质地块供应节奏，叠加房企拿地进一步聚焦，带动300城宅地出让金同比增长 26.5%，平均溢价率达13.6%，较去年同期提升8.1个百分点。其中，杭州、上海、成都住宅用地平均溢价率分别达43.2%、 29.0%、28.3%。3月，杭州、成都两度刷新地价纪录。 4、 摩根士丹利将2025年美国GDP增长预期下调至0.8%，之前的预期为1.5%；尽管并 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The PVC market is under short - term pressure due to factors such as low downstream enthusiasm, high inventory, and potential US tariff policies [3]. - Crude oil prices are weakening and mainly moving downward in a volatile manner, affected by trade war concerns, OPEC+ production increase, and potential US - Iran negotiations [4]. - The domestic futures market on April 8, 2025, saw more contracts decline than rise. The market is influenced by trade policies and other factors [6]. - Copper prices are currently affected by US tariff policies and market uncertainty, with short - term volatility and a long - term resilient fundamental outlook [10]. - The asphalt market is turning weak and mainly moving downward in a volatile manner, but the asphalt cracking spread is expected to strengthen due to raw material shortages [12]. - PP and plastic are expected to move downward in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL [13][15]. - Iron ore has short - term support but limited upward momentum, and a 5 - 9 positive spread strategy is still valid [16]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to move weakly in a low - level range, and key price levels should be monitored [18]. - Coking coal is expected to move weakly in a low - level range in the short term [19]. - Urea is mainly moving weakly in a volatile manner, with the main contract oscillating in the range of 1780 - 1900 yuan/ton [21]. Summary by Variety PVC - Supply: The PVC开工率 decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 79.81%, and there are new minor maintenance devices [3]. - Demand: Downstream开工率 slightly declined, and the replenishment enthusiasm and forward orders are poor. The Indian anti - dumping policy and potential US tariffs affect exports [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory has been decreasing for four weeks but remains high [3]. Crude Oil - Policy: Trump's tariff policies and potential retaliatory measures from other countries have increased market panic [4]. - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May [4]. - Demand: The market is worried that the intensifying trade war will suppress oil demand [4]. Copper - Supply: Domestic copper supply is expected to decrease in the second quarter, affected by factors such as smelter production enthusiasm and scrap copper imports [10]. - Demand: The downstream copper demand is strong, with an increase in the开工 rate of copper foil enterprises [10]. - Market: The short - term market is mainly influenced by US tariff policies, with high market uncertainty [10]. Asphalt - Supply: The asphalt开工率 decreased to 25.7%, and the planned production in March increased by 13.2% [11]. - Demand: The downstream开工率 is slowly recovering, and the overall demand is still low [11]. - Market: Affected by trade policies and potential US - Iran negotiations, the market is turning weak [12]. PP - Supply: The PP企业开工率 rose to about 86%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire decreased [13]. - Demand: The downstream开工率 is at a low level, and US tariffs affect exports [13]. - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [13]. Plastic - Supply: The plastic开工率 decreased to about 88%, and new production capacity has been put into operation [15]. - Demand: The PE下游开工率 is at a low level, and the agricultural film peak season is coming to an end [15]. - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [15]. Iron Ore - Supply: No significant changes in the short - term supply situation are mentioned [16]. - Demand: The export demand for finished steel is expected to be weak, which may suppress iron ore demand [16]. - Market: The price is affected by trade policies and steel production restrictions [16]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply: No significant changes in the short - term supply situation are mentioned [18]. - Demand: The demand for rebar is slowly recovering, and the export demand for hot - rolled coils is expected to weaken [18]. - Market: The market is affected by trade conflicts and steel production reduction news [18]. Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic mines are resuming production, and imported coal resources are abundant [19]. - Demand: The demand from steel and coking enterprises is increasing, but the demand elasticity is low [19]. - Market: The price is affected by macro risks and steel production reduction news [19]. Urea - Supply: It is in the spring maintenance period, with some factories having maintenance plans [20]. - Demand: The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the next round of concentrated fertilizer preparation is around June [20]. - Inventory: The inventory is being smoothly reduced, which provides support for the market [21].

【冠通研究】 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2505合约减仓震荡运行，最低价7188元/吨，最高价7253元/吨，最终收盘于7200元/吨， 在20日均线下方，跌幅0.03%。持仓量减少31820手至213258手。 现货方面： PP各地区现货价格多数下跌。拉丝报7120-74800元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 PP：冲高回落 制作日期：2025年4月8日 【策略分析】 逢高做空/多PP空LL 春节假期后第九周，PP下游整体开工环比基本稳定，处于年内较低水平。其中塑编开工率环比 上涨0.02个百分点至47.6%，塑编订单继续小幅回升，与前两年同期基本相当。美国加征关税不利于 PP下游制品出口。扬子石化等检修装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至86%左右，处于中性水平，标 品拉丝生产比例下跌至24%左右。石化清明节假期期间累库较多，不过放假归来工作日去库快，石化 库存降至近年同期偏低水平。上游原油价格暴跌在成本端施压。供应上内蒙古宝丰3#3月刚投产，近 期检修装置增加较多，下游恢复缓慢，新增订单有限，刚需采购为主，成交一般，未见明显放量。 随着4 ...

【冠通研究】 塑料：冲高回落 制作日期：2025年4月8日 【策略分析】 05基差、塑料期货逢高做空/多PP空LL 新增大庆石化全密度、四川石化全密度等检修装置，塑料开工率下降至88%左右，目前开工率处 于中性偏高水平。春节假期后第九周，PE下游开工率环比略有回升，农膜原料库存和农膜订单继续 小幅下降，农膜旺季进入尾声，包装膜订单转而小幅下降，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历同期 偏低位水平。石化清明节假期期间累库较多，不过放假归来工作日去库快，石化库存降至近年同期 偏低水平。美国加征关税不利于塑料下游制品出口。上游原油价格暴跌在成本端施压。供应上，新 增产能万华化学、内蒙古宝丰2#、埃克森美孚惠州一期投产，内蒙宝丰3#3月份新近投产，山东新时 代线性推迟至4月份投产，近日新增部分检修装置，但检修时间较短，下游还未完全恢复，以前期订 单生产为主，地膜进入旺季尾声，下游其他需求有望继续恢复，3月制造业PMI上升，只是目前新单 跟进缓慢，下游开工提升幅度不及预期，对高价原料购买谨慎，刚需补库，华北、华南地区农膜上 周价格稳定，随着4月初检修装置陆续重启开车，新增产能试车，市场聚焦于贸易战，预计聚烯烃震 荡下行。由 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Amid trade - war panic, the oil price has weakened and is mainly in a downward trend. The recommended strategy is to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to the US tariff policy and the US - Iran negotiation [1]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Trump signed an executive order to set a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners, with higher tariffs on some. The benchmark tariff took effect on April 5, and the reciprocal tariff on April 9. The EU and Canada will take counter - measures. China has also imposed a 34% tariff on US - originated imports. The market is worried that the escalating trade war will suppress oil demand. OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels starting from May, and the US may have direct talks with Iran [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2505 fell 6.18% to 478.6 yuan/ton, with a low of 473.2 yuan/ton and a high of 494.3 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 3021 to 19,593 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA has adjusted the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate down by 30,000 barrels per day to 1.27 million barrels per day, and the 2026 growth rate up by 70,000 barrels per day to 1.17 million barrels per day. It also raised the 2025 US crude oil production growth rate by 10,000 barrels per day to 390,000 barrels per day. OPEC kept its 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rate forecasts unchanged. IEA cut the 2025 global demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day and increased the 2025 global surplus by 150,000 barrels per day to 600,000 barrels per day [3]. - On the evening of April 2, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending March 28 increased by 6.165 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 2.116 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.551 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 264,000 barrels, and heating oil inventories increased by 209,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 2.373 million barrels [3]. Supply and Demand - OPEC's January crude oil production was revised up by 28,000 barrels per day to 26.706 million barrels per day, and its February 2025 production increased by 154,000 barrels per day to 26.86 million barrels per day, driven by production increases in Iran and Nigeria. US crude oil production in the week ending March 28 increased by 6,000 barrels per day to 13.58 million barrels per day, slightly recovering from the record high [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.094 million barrels per day, a 0.86% decrease from the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 1.71% to 8.495 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand decreased by 1.86% from the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand increased by 1.18% to 3.679 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand increased by 3.67% from the same period last year [4]. - The weekly supply of US crude oil products increased by 4.59% month - on - month [6].

【冠通研究】 宏观情绪仍偏弱，短期低位弱势震荡 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 8 日 【策略分析】 宏观情绪仍偏弱，短期低位弱势震荡 今日黑色系延续弱势，焦煤主力高开低走，跌幅扩大。国内矿山复产加快，蒙煤 通关车辆回升，进口煤资源充足，口岸库存高位运行。下游钢焦企业开工继续回 升，焦企一轮提涨；国内焦煤竞拍价格上涨，出货好转，但是海外资源价格仍承 压，蒙古国大塔矿二季度蒙 5#原煤坑口价格较一季度下调 10.5 美金/吨左右。 短期看，焦煤供需双增，现货市场情绪有所回暖，但需求端缺乏弹性，供需宽松 格局难有明显转变；近期受宏观风险冲击，加之钢材减产消息扰动，盘面继续走 低，考虑到焦煤估值偏低，基本面变动有限，预计焦煤短期低位弱势震荡为主。 【期货行情】 焦煤 2505 小时 K 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 期货方面：焦煤主力 JM2505 合约高开低走，最终收盘于 926 元/吨，-45.5 元/ 吨，涨跌幅-4.68%。成交量 32.69 万手，持仓 26.44 万手，-17763 手，今日焦煤 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 2505 合约前二十 ...

【冠通研究】 沥青：低开上行 制作日期：2025年4月8日 【策略分析】 逢高做空 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.0个百分点至25.7%，较去年同期低了0.8个百分点，沥青开 工率继续回落，基本与近年同期最低位相当。据隆众资讯数据，3月份预计排产238.6万吨，环比增 加27.8万吨，增幅为13.2%。上周沥青下游各行业陆续复工，开工率继续反弹，但其中道路沥青开工 环比持平于19%，开工率仍然偏低，恢复缓慢。政府工作报告表示拟安排地方政府专项债券4.4万亿 元，比上年增加5000亿元，要加快各项资金下达拨付，尽快形成实际支出，关注形成的沥青实物工 作量的进度。上周山东地区部分炼厂月底执行合同出货，出货量增加明显，全国出货量环比增加 0.87%至24.40万吨，但仍处于低位。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比减少，连续两周环比下降，仍处于 近年来同期的最低位，受新一轮冷空气影响，沥青实际需求仍有待恢复。特朗普签署行政命令，自4 月2日起，美国将可能对从任何直接或间接进口委内瑞拉石油的国家进口的所有商品征收25%的关税， 委内瑞拉原油出口至中国受限，另外特朗普政府命令全球石油码头公司必须在5月27日之前结束在委 内瑞 ...