环比上月同期增加0.24%，产量环比上月同期增加2.71%。 3.根据《中华人民共和国货物进出口管理条例》《化肥进口关税配额管理暂行办法》，2026年化肥进口关税配额总量为1365万 吨。其中，尿素330万吨。 4.据SMM，力拓已在几内亚西芒杜项目储备了约200万吨高品位铁矿石，将于11月中旬发货，这将是该大型矿山的首批铁矿石， 经营另一座西芒杜铁矿的WCS也于9月份开始囤积矿石，开始争夺早期市场份额。西芒杜预计满负荷生产时每年可产出1.2亿吨 铁矿石。 热点资讯 5.据外媒报道，伦敦金属交易所（LME）锌市场正面临数十年来最严重的供应紧缩，交易商争相抢购支撑交易所合约的持续萎 缩库存。现货锌价较三个月期货合约的溢价飙升至每吨323美元，创下至少自1997年以来最高水平。这一"现货升水"现象是 现货需求超过供应的典型标志。 早盘速递 2025/10/22 1.欧洲领导人发表联合声明，支持通过谈判推动俄乌停火。声明表示，各方一致支持争取公正而持久的和平，并赞同美国总统 特朗普提出的立即停火、以当前接触线作为谈判起点的主张。声明重申，国际边界不应以武力方式改变。 2.南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight night - market showed mixed trends in various commodity futures and financial markets. Positive factors in supply and demand drove up oil prices, while the LME zinc market faced a severe squeeze. In the financial market, A - shares and some international stock markets had positive performances, and different industries had their own development trends and news [4][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Energy Futures**: The US crude oil main contract rose 0.98% to $57.58 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract rose 1.07% to $61.66 per barrel. The decrease in API crude oil inventory and the US energy department's procurement tender for strategic reserves were positive factors [4]. - **London Base Metals**: Most London base metals rose, with LME zinc up 0.50% at $2993.50 per ton, LME tin up 0.48% at $35475.00 per ton, etc. However, LME nickel and copper declined [4]. - **Domestic Futures**: Domestic futures main contracts were mixed. SC crude oil, etc. rose slightly, while precious metals like gold and silver, and some agricultural products futures declined [6]. Important News Macroeconomic News - There was speculation about Trump's possible visit to China next year, but the Chinese foreign ministry had no information to provide. Economists expected the Fed to cut interest rates in the coming weeks and December, with disagreements on the end - of - next - year rate. A possible trade agreement between Canada and the US might be signed during the APEC summit, and Trump mentioned military actions against Hamas [8]. Energy Futures News - The 2026 fertilizer import tariff quota was set at 13.65 million tons, with 3.3 million tons for urea. The natural gas market had a stable supply and slowing consumption growth. Goldman Sachs predicted a decline in Brent crude oil prices next year [11][12]. Metal Futures News - In September 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.6804 million tons, with a 2.67% year - on - year increase. The LME zinc market faced a severe supply squeeze, with a high spot premium [14]. Black - Series Futures News - South Africa's UMK raised the price of manganese ore for China in November. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 Chinese ports increased, while the inventory in Australian and Brazilian ports decreased. BHP's iron ore production declined in Q3 2025, and Rio Tinto planned to ship high - grade iron ore from Guinea [17][18]. Agricultural Futures News - As of October 17, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit decreased. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased. Malaysian palm oil production and exports increased in October 1 - 20, and the price was expected to remain above a certain level. Indonesia aimed to increase sugar production in 2026, and Brazil was expected to increase exports of soybeans, etc. [20][23][27]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares rose significantly, with technology and some concept sectors leading. The Hong Kong stock market also had positive performances. Many A - share companies had mid - term dividend plans. Some companies had important news, such as possible IPOs and expected revenue growth [30][34]. Industry - The state drug administration promoted the development of the medical device industry. The trust industry's asset management scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan. Some cities announced future industry plans, and a large - scale AIC mother fund was launched in Shenzhen [35][36]. Overseas - European leaders supported a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Japan had a new prime minister, and the Japanese central bank considered interest rate hikes. Argentina's loan plan faced problems, and the EU's financial situation deteriorated [38]. International Stock Markets - US, Japanese, and European stock markets had different performances. Some companies' financial reports were released, and an option exchange planned to extend trading hours [41][42]. Commodities - Oil prices rose, and most London base metals showed mixed trends. The LME zinc market was severely squeezed [45]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was strong, and the real - estate bond financing showed growth. US and Japanese bond yields had different trends [46][47]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore and offshore RMB had different trends against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose. The Japanese new finance minister hoped for stable exchange rates [48][49]. Upcoming Events - There were various economic data releases and important events such as press conferences, product launches, and interest - rate decisions in different regions [52][54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The rebound space of copper prices is limited. Overseas interest rate cuts in October are a foregone conclusion, and the impact of Sino - US trade conflicts and the US government shutdown has led to a pessimistic market outlook, suppressing the upward space of copper prices. Fundamentally, there is high resistance to high prices in the domestic market, but the domestic copper export window is open, reducing the pressure of inventory accumulation. It is the peak consumption season in October, providing fundamental support. The previous copper futures price has broken through the long - term oscillation range, and the market is mainly strong. However, as the peak season ends, demand support will weaken, and the upward space is insufficient [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved higher, with a strong intraday oscillation [1][4]. - Spot: On October 21, 2025, the spot premium in East China was 55 yuan/ton, and in South China was 65 yuan/ton. The LME official price was 10,610 US dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 29 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.2 Supply Side - As of October 15, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 40.8 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.08 cents/pound [8]. - Copper concentrate port inventory decreased this week, and is significantly lower than the same period last year. Smelters are still under maintenance, with low output levels. LME copper prices are rising, and smelters plan to ship copper spot to LME, which may further reduce the domestic circulation volume [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 37,700 tons, an increase of 1,383 tons from the previous period. As of October 20, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 108,700 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 137,200 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 346,600 short tons, an increase of 1,035 short tons from the previous period [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided Core Viewpoint - The PP market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to factors such as supply - demand pressure, cost changes, and macro - economic concerns [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 行情分析 - PP downstream开工率环比回升0.09个百分点至51.85%，处于历年同期偏低水平，其中塑编开工率环比持平于44.26%，订单略减且略低于去年同期 [1] - 10月21日新增检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至80%左右，标品拉丝生产比例下降至25%左右 [1] - 今年国庆石化累库幅度与往年类似，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平 [1] - 成本端原油价格下跌，供应上新增产能投产，近期检修装置增加，下游进入旺季但需求不及预期，贸易商让利促成交，中美贸易摩擦加剧对经济担忧，PP产业反内卷政策未落地，预计PP偏弱震荡 [1] 期现行情 期货方面 - PP2601合约减仓震荡运行，最低价6530元/吨，最高价6619元/吨，收盘于6583元/吨，在20日均线下方，跌幅0.17%，持仓量减少5749手至649100手 [2] 现货方面 - PP各地区现货价格多数下跌，拉丝报6390 - 6630元/吨 [3] 基本面跟踪 - 供应端10月21日新增检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至80%左右，处于中性偏低水平 [4] - 需求端截至10月17日当周，PP下游开工率环比回升0.09个百分点至51.85%，处于历年同期偏低水平，塑编开工率环比持平，订单略减 [4] - 国庆节假期石化早库环比增加27万吨，周二石化早库环比减少1万吨至79万吨，较去年同期低3.5万吨，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平 [4] - 原料端布伦特原油01合约下跌至61美元/桶下方，中国CFR丙烯价格环比持平于775美元/吨 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is under significant pressure due to high social inventory, upcoming end of equipment maintenance, average spot trading, and high futures warehouse receipts. However, the recent major conference may affect macro - sentiment, and the cost side of PVC has strengthened. It is recommended to exit and wait and see [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69% on a month - on - month basis, still at a relatively high level in recent years. After the National Day, the downstream recovery of PVC was significant, but it is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. India postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India increased the anti - dumping duty on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening the export expectation of Chinese PVC in the fourth quarter. However, after the recent decline in export prices, export orders have not weakened significantly. The real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and it will take time to improve [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,670 yuan per ton, the highest was 4,725 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 4,699 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.47%. The position volume decreased by 14,260 lots to 1,191,906 lots [2]. - On October 21, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,625 yuan per ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,699 yuan per ton. The current basis was - 74 yuan per ton, weakening by 16 yuan per ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - neutral level [3][4]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Some devices such as Shandong Xinfa, Lutai Chemical, and Inner Mongolia Junzheng entered maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69% on a month - on - month basis. New production capacities have been put into operation, including Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons in August, Tianjin Bohua with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons expected to be in stable production by the end of September, Qingdao Gulf with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons put into operation in early September and approaching full - load production, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua with annual capacities of 300,000 tons each running at low loads after trial production [5]. - Demand side: The real estate is still in the adjustment stage. From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. As of the week of October 19, after the National Day, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 54.79% on a month - on - month basis, but it was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [6]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 16, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% on a month - on - month basis to 1.0338 million tons, 33.52% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory decreased slightly but was still relatively high [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The report predicts that plastics will experience a weak and volatile trend in the near future. Factors such as the signing of a cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, OPEC+ planning to increase production in November, the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, and insufficient downstream purchasing willingness contribute to this prediction. Although the peak season of agricultural film may bring some support, the overall situation remains under pressure[1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情分析] - On October 21, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 86%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. Agricultural film entered the peak season, but the peak season was less than expected, and the post - National Day stocking demand weakened. New production capacity was put into operation, and the plastics operating rate decreased slightly. With concerns about economic growth and no actual anti - involution policies in the plastics industry, plastics are expected to oscillate weakly in the near future[1]. [期现行情] - **Futures**: The plastics 2601 contract decreased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6,830 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,915 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,883 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.38%. The position volume decreased by 135 lots to 561,965 lots[2]. - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,930 - 9,930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,260 - 8,090 yuan/ton[3]. [基本面跟踪] - **Supply**: On October 21, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 86%, at a neutral level[1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. After the National Day, agricultural film orders and raw material inventories increased but were still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years[1][4]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons, and on Tuesday, it decreased by 10,000 tons to 790,000 tons, 35,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years[1][4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $61 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $770 per ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $780 per ton[4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升1.3个百分点至35.8%，较去年同期高了8.0个百分点，处于近 年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，10月份国内沥青预计排产268.2万吨，环比减少0.4万吨，减 幅为0.1%，同比增加35.0万吨，增幅为15.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数稳定，其中道路沥 青开工环比持平于29.0%，仍处于近年同期最低水平，受到资金和部分地区降雨制约。上周，国庆假 期归来，全国出货量环比增加14.48%至25.33万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比继 续上升，但仍处于近年来同期的最低位。无棣鑫岳等炼厂有检修计划，沥青产量将有所减少，但仍 处高位。北方多地项目赶工，只是个别地区降温明显，南方降雨增加，另外，资金端制约，市场谨 慎，影响沥青需求。近日中美即将进行新一轮的经贸磋商，原油价格波动或加大，加上山东地区沥 青基差走强至高位，建议沥青期价离场观望。 【期现行情】 发布日期：2025年10月21日 【行情分析】 期货方面： 沥青日报：震荡运行 【基本面跟踪】 基本面上看，供应端，山东及华东地区个别主营炼厂间歇生产，沥青开工率环比回升1.3个百分点 至3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weak, and it is mainly treated as a weak - side oscillation in the medium and long term. However, the recent decline in crude oil prices has increased, and the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the US may lead to greater price fluctuations. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily and pay attention to the progress of China - US trade negotiations [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The next meeting will be held on November 2 [1] - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the inventory build - up of US crude oil exceeded expectations, and the de - stocking of refined oil also exceeded expectations. Overall oil product inventories have increased. US refineries have entered the autumn maintenance season, and the refinery operating rate has decreased by 6.7 percentage points [1] - After the discount of Russian crude oil widened, India continued to import Russian crude oil. Trump said that Modi promised that India would not buy oil from Russia, but it would take a process [1] - The European Commission passed a new draft of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on shadow tankers and setting the crude oil price cap at $47.6 per barrel, but there is no secondary sanction for Russian buyers. The EU spokesman said that the European Commission will propose a plan to increase the import tariff on Russian oil in due course [1] - Due to the increased attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia will extend the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year. Currently, Russia's crude oil exports remain at a high level [1] - EIA's latest monthly report predicts that the global oil inventory will increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the IEA monthly report predicts that the global oil surplus will intensify [1] - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached between Palestine and Israel, and Trump will meet with Putin in Budapest, reducing geopolitical risks [1] - The EU sanctions plan has been introduced, the consumption peak season has ended, the US non - farm payrolls data is weak, and the uncertainty of China - US trade has worried the market about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, the crude oil exports in the Kurdistan region of Iraq have restarted, and exports in the Middle East have increased [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2512 contract, fell 0.32% to 437.7 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 431.8 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 440.2 yuan per ton, and an increase in open interest of 559 to 44,704 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects that the global oil inventory will increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and has raised the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. It has also raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.80 per barrel to $68.64 per barrel, but expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintain the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel [3] - OPEC has raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3] - IEA has lowered the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day and maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day. It has also raised the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, intensifying the oil supply surplus [3] Inventory and Production Data - On the early morning of October 17, US EIA data showed that for the week ending October 10, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.524 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 288,000 barrels and 3.45% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 267,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 75,000 barrels; refined oil inventories decreased by 4.529 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 294,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 703,000 barrels [4] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in August was reduced by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its production in September 2025 increased by 524,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases in Saudi Arabia and the UAE [4] - US crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.636 million barrels per day in the week of October 10, setting a new historical high [4] Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.85% increase compared with the same period last year, and the margin of being higher than the same period last year increased slightly [5] - Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.20% week - on - week to 8.455 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.713 million barrels per day, a 3.19% decrease compared with the same period last year [5] - Diesel weekly demand decreased by 2.60% week - on - week to 4.233 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.984 million barrels per day, a 0.19% increase compared with the same period last year. The decline in both gasoline and diesel demand led to a 11.48% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [5]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 21 日 商品表现 （IF）主力合约涨 1.63%，上证 50 股指期货（IH）主力合约涨 1.19%，中证 500 股指期货（IC） ...

联系方式：010-85356618 本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1580 1580 0 河南 1540 1550 -10 山东 1540 1550 -10 山西 1460 1460 0 江苏 1550 1560 -10 安徽 1560 1560 0 黑龙江 1620 1640 -20 内蒙古 1610 1630 -20 河北东光 1560 1560 0 山东华鲁 1560 1560 0 江苏灵谷 1610 1610 0 安徽昊源 1550 1550 0 山东05基差 -142 -125 -17 山东01基差 -179 -158 -21 河北05基差 -102 -95 -7 河北01基差 -139 -128 -11 1-5价差 73 75 -2 5-9价差 -37 -33 -4 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 6057 6238 -181 中东FOB 373.5 373.5 0 美湾FOB 376.5 376.5 0 埃及FOB 432.5 432.5 0 波罗的海FOB 370 370 0 巴西CFR 422.5 422.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证 ...