Report Summary Overall Market Performance - As of July 11, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performances. Coking coal rose over 3%, coke and glass rose over 2%, while aluminum oxide fell over 2%. Regarding stock index futures, CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.25%. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 4.43 billion, while Shanghai Gold 2510 had an outflow of 435 million [7]. Industry - Specific Analysis Coking Coal - The price of coking coal opened high and strengthened during the day. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market was 970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to the closure of the Sino - Mongolian border during Mongolia's National Naadam Festival and the impact of supply - side reforms, the supply pressure eased. Coke enterprises proposed a price increase, and the short - term market remained strong [3]. Crude Oil - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks reduced concerns about supply disruptions. OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC also lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years. The market was expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation and the outcome of trade negotiations [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened high and weakened during the day. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1. Supply was expected to improve, and demand was expected to enter the off - season. The market was bearish in the short term, and prices were expected to be volatile [9]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium opened high and closed down after fluctuations. The spot price continued to rise, but the market deviated from the fundamental logic. Supply was abundant, and the market was mainly affected by news and macro - sentiment. The price was expected to be high and volatile, and there was a risk of a sharp decline [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate increased, while the downstream construction rate mostly decreased. The inventory was at a low level. With the approaching peak season and the narrowing of the price range of crude oil, it was recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12]. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased, and the production rate of enterprises increased. The market was affected by tariffs and the expected slowdown of global oil demand. Supply pressure was relieved to some extent, but demand recovery was slow. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The production rate of plastic increased, while the downstream开工率 decreased. The market was affected by tariffs and the situation of global oil demand. Although the cost might decrease, demand recovery was slow, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. PVC - The PVC production rate decreased, and the downstream开工率 was low. Export was restricted, and inventory was high. The market was affected by the real - estate situation and new production capacity. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. Soybean Oil - The price of soybean oil showed a high - opening and volatile trend, approaching the 8000 - yuan/ton pressure level. Supply was abundant, and demand increased recently. The price was expected to be volatile and strong, but the upside was limited [19]. Soybean Meal - The price of soybean meal rose. Supply was under pressure due to high domestic oil - mill operating rates, and demand improved slightly. The price was affected by factors such as US soybean production, trade policies, and livestock farming. It was necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [21]. Rebar - Rebar showed a strong - oscillating trend. Supply and demand were both weak, with production decreasing and demand in the seasonal off - season. Inventory was still high, but cost support was strong. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [23]. Hot Rolled Coil - Hot rolled coil showed a strong - oscillating trend with "high - rising and falling back". Supply and demand both decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The market was affected by policies and raw - material prices. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [24][25]. Urea - The urea price closed down after fluctuations. Production was stable, and demand was weak in the industrial sector but had local increases in the agricultural sector. Inventory decreased continuously. The price was expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to export policies [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market sentiment has slowed down. The spot price of urea is rising steadily, and the order - receiving situation has slowed down. There is no pressure to cut prices due to sufficient pre - orders. The daily production of urea has little change, with some previously overhauled devices resuming production this week, and it is expected that both overhaul and resumption will occur next week with a small daily production fluctuation. The agricultural demand is more cautious than the industrial demand. The agricultural demand in Northeast and North China is expected to end this month, followed by a window period. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remains low, and the inventory has increased. Although the industrial demand is weak, the export orders are still being shipped, and the inventory has been continuously reduced. The international price is rising, and the domestic urea market sentiment is also high. The short - term trend is mainly oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the export policy [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The intraday trend of the market was low - opening and low - going, with an oscillating decline. The spot price of urea rose steadily, and the order - receiving situation slowed down. There was no pressure to cut prices. The daily production of urea changed little, with some previously overhauled devices resuming production this week, and it is expected that both overhaul and resumption will occur next week with a small daily production fluctuation. The agricultural demand was more cautious than the industrial demand, and the agricultural demand in Northeast and North China is expected to end this month, followed by a window period. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remained low, and the inventory increased. Although the industrial demand was weak, the export orders were still being shipped, and the inventory was continuously reduced. The international price was rising, and the domestic urea market sentiment was also high. The short - term trend was mainly oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the export policy [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - In the futures market, the urea main 2509 contract opened at 1776 yuan/ton, with an intraday weak oscillation, and finally closed at 1773 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The trading volume decreased by 10,443 lots to 197,786 lots. Among the top twenty main positions, the long positions decreased by 4,313 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,589 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed, such as Dongzheng Futures' net long positions increasing by 3,696 lots and Guotai Junan's net short positions increasing by 2,246 lots [2]. - In the spot market, the spot price of urea rose steadily, and the order - receiving situation slowed down. There was no pressure to cut prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1770 - 1830 yuan/ton [4]. Basis Tracking - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation rose, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract strengthened compared with the previous trading day, reaching 77 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton [7]. Supply Data - On July 1, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,400 tons, the same as the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.63% [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent rebound of the US dollar index suppresses the upward space of copper prices. If the 50% tariff on copper starts on August 1st, the subsequent arbitrage channel will close, export demand will sharply decrease, and inventory will start to accumulate, with the market trend being bearish. Currently, the market is mainly volatile as there are many uncertainties regarding the copper tariff [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The copper market opened high and weakened during the day. The issue of the Fed's interest - rate cut remains uncertain, and the proposed tariff on copper may extend the Fed's wait - and - see period. As of July 4, 2025, the spot smelting fee is - 43.31 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee is - 4.31 cents per pound. The expected supply shortage may improve. As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1363500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80800 tons (+6.30%). July is expected to be a seasonal consumption off - season [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and weakened during the day, closing at 78700. The long positions of the top 20 were 118651 lots, an increase of 2530 lots; the short positions were 115777 lots, a decrease of 3320 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 40 yuan per ton, and in South China was - 30 yuan per ton. On July 10, 2025, the LME official price was 9742 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 10 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of July 4, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.31 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.31 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 23300 tons, a decrease of 9478 tons from the previous period. As of July 10, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 67100 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 108700 tons, a slight increase of 625 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 231100 short tons, an increase of 7736 short tons from the previous period [9].

热点资讯 1. 7月10日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅在吉隆坡会见俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫。双方就伊朗核问题交换意见。拉夫罗夫 介绍了俄方立场考虑。王毅表示，武力换不来和平，施压不解决问题，对话谈判才是根本出路。 2. 当地时间7月9日，特朗普宣布对铜征50%关税。中国外交部发言人毛宁对此表示：这个问题我们立场非常明确，我们一贯反 对泛化国家安全概念，我们也始终认为关税战、贸易战没有赢家，滥施关税不符合任何一方的利益。 3. 商务部回应美商务部长称可能于8月初与中方谈判代表会面：目前，双方在多个层级就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通。 早盘速递 2025/7/11 4. 美联储官员穆萨莱姆表示， 当前经济形势良好， 关税的具体影响可能要到今年晚些时候或明年初才会完全显现出来。 5.旧金山联储主席戴利表示，她仍认为今年可能会有两次降息，并指出关税对价格的影响较预期更为温和的可能性正在上升。 重点关注 烧碱、纯苯、焦煤、尿素、菜油 夜盘表现 板块表现 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.75% 贵金属, 27.19% 油脂油料, ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/07/11 隔夜夜盘市场走势 5. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨，大豆期货涨 0.67%报 1014 美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨 0.12%报 416.5 美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货 涨 1.28%报 554.5 美分/蒲式耳。 1. 国际油价走弱，美油主力合约收跌 2.21%，报 66.87 美元/桶；布伦特原油主 力合约跌 1.91%，报 68.85 美元/桶。市场对全球需求前景的担忧加剧，叠加美 国 EIA 原油库存意外增加 707 万桶，远超市场预期，导致油价承压下行。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.36%报 3333.00 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 2.72%报 37.63 美元/盎司。美国财政赤字和关税政策加剧通 胀担忧，全球央行持续增持黄金支撑市场。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数上涨，LME 期镍涨 2.04%报 15285.00 美元/吨，LME 期 锌涨 1.26%报 2777.00 美元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - In June 2025, China's CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, with urban areas up 0.1%, rural areas down 0.2%, food prices down 0.3%, non-food prices up 0.1%, consumer goods prices down 0.2%, and service prices up 0.5%. The CPI for the first half of the year was down 0.1% compared to the same period last year [2] - The vessel "Eternal C" flying the Liberian flag and operated by Greece sank after being attacked by Houthi rebels near Yemen, and five crew members have been rescued [2] - The US government will restrict Chinese citizens and other so - called "foreign adversaries" from buying farmland in the US, which China's spokesperson criticized as discriminatory and harmful to the US itself [2] - The General Office of the State Council issued a notice to increase support for stable employment policies, including supporting enterprises to stabilize jobs and expanding the scope of special loans for stable and expanded employment [2] - After including the tariffs announced by Trump on August 1 for 14 countries, the average US tariff rate will rise from 13.4% to 14.6% [3] - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that most participants thought it might be appropriate to cut the federal funds rate this year, and the upward pressure on inflation from tariffs might be temporary or moderate [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: caustic soda, pure benzene, coking coal, urea, and rapeseed oil [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.85%, precious metals 27.21%, oilseeds and oils 12.63%, non - ferrous metals 20.32%, soft commodities 2.88%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.17%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.74%, grains 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.82% [4] 3. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, but specific data is presented in a chart and not detailed in text [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.13 | 1.41 | 4.22 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.26 | 1.03 | 2.05 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.18 | 1.41 | 1.44 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.41 | 0.64 | 3.98 | | | S&P 500 | 0.61 | 0.94 | 6.49 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 1.06 | - 0.75 | 19.10 | | | German DAX | 1.42 | 2.68 | 23.31 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.33 | - 1.65 | - 0.18 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.15 | 1.21 | 8.49 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.11 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | 0.03 | 0.00 | - 0.36 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | - 0.00 | - 0.03 | - 0.50 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 0.21 | 1.47 | 1.66 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.06 | 5.06 | - 5.05 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.38 | 0.33 | 26.25 | | | LME Copper | - 1.33 | - 2.21 | 10.00 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 1.01 | - 0.96 | 12.72 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.00 | 0.74 | - 10.13 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 0.48 | - 3.11 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of coking coal is still strong, driven by supply - side disturbances [3]. - The futures market of lithium carbonate is currently in high - level consolidation but deviates from fundamentals, and there is a risk of an unexpected decline [5]. - If the copper tariff is implemented on August 1, the copper market will be bearish, but caution is needed when short - selling due to potential trade conflicts [10]. - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate as the Middle East geopolitical risk has cooled, but the post - ceasefire situation needs attention [11]. - It is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt at low prices as it is gradually entering the peak season [13]. - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level due to factors such as downstream demand and trade issues [15]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future, affected by trade and demand factors [16]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level with large pressure before demand improves substantially [18]. - Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate within a range as it has high inventory and short - term demand pressure [19]. - Soybean meal is expected to continue to oscillate weakly as supply is abundant and demand is limited [21]. - The short - term trend of rebar is affected by supply contraction expectations and capital, but the uncertainty of the off - season fundamentals remains [23]. - Hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate strongly due to improved supply - demand structure, cost support, and policy factors [26]. - Urea is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by export orders and international prices [27]. Summary by Variety Coking Coal - Today, coking coal opened and closed higher. The prices in the Shanxi market and Mongolia increased. From July 10 - 17, the Sino - Mongolian border is closed, and domestic mines are resuming production. The supply pressure is relieved, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is bullish in the short term [3]. Lithium Carbonate - It opened high and closed down. The spot price is rising, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is accumulating. The futures market is affected by non - fundamental factors. If the demand recovers in July, the price may be boosted [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened low and then rose. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1. The supply may increase, and the demand is expected to decline in the off - season. The market is bearish in the future [10]. Crude Oil - The Middle East geopolitical risk has cooled, reducing concerns about supply disruptions. However, the post - ceasefire situation needs attention. OPEC + will increase production in August, and the price is expected to oscillate [11][12]. Asphalt - The supply is increasing, but the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread at low prices as it is entering the peak season [13]. PP - The downstream开工率 is low, and the supply pressure is relieved by new capacity and maintenance. It is expected to oscillate at a low level due to trade and demand issues [14][15]. Plastic - The开工率 is at a low - to - neutral level, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply pressure is relieved by new capacity and reduced开工率. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future [16]. PVC - The supply is decreasing, but the demand is still weak, and the inventory is high. The new capacity is about to be put into production. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. Soybean Oil - The price is oscillating upward. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure due to factors such as bio - diesel and palm oil substitution. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [19]. Soybean Meal - The price closed higher. The supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly [21]. Rebar - It showed a "bottom - hunting and rising" trend. The supply is expected to contract, and the demand shows off - season resilience. The price is rising due to multiple factors, but the uncertainty remains [22][23]. Hot - rolled Coils - It showed a "breaking through the previous high and rising" pattern. The supply is contracting in some areas, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [24][26]. Urea - The price opened high and closed with an increase. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The inventory is decreasing, and the export is supported. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [27].

【冠通研究】 铜关税引行情波动 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 10 日 【策略分析】 今日铜低开低走午后拉涨。特朗普周三宣布对铜征收 50%的关税，并在社交媒体上 表示，这一关税将于 8 月 1 日生效，称这一决定是在国家安全评估后做出的。中国 6 月 CPI 同比涨 0.1%，核心 CPI 涨幅创 14 个月新高，PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.6%。供给方面， 截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，现货粗炼费为-43.31 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.31 美分/磅。 目前铜冶炼厂加工费预计止跌回稳，铜供应偏紧的预期或将有所改善，铜关税靴子落 地，美国进口铜通道或将关闭，关税若尽快实施，海上流通货物或回流至出口国港口， 可流通货物将增加。需求方面，截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨，相比 上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。预计 7 月转为季节性消费淡季阶段，铜杆和线缆 反馈订单和用铜下降，开工负荷将下降。近期铜价走强，下游采购积极性降低，交投情 绪稍显谨慎，目前市场看跌情绪下，采购情绪进一步被抑制。整体来看，8 月 1 日开始 征收关税的话，后续套利通道将关闭，出口需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The international urea price has boosted the sentiment of the domestic market. Although the current industrial demand is weak, export orders are still being shipped, and there is a partial increase in agricultural demand, with continuous inventory reduction. The nitrogen association has announced the export guidance price for urea. Overall, the international price is rising, and the domestic urea sentiment is also high. Supported by factory export orders and ongoing port collection, the futures market still has support and will remain mainly oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to export policy changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened high and closed low, with a late - day plunge but still closing up. The spot price continued to rise, and the order - receiving situation was good. The daily production of urea changed little, and some previously overhauled devices were expected to resume production, increasing output. Both agricultural and industrial demand were cautious in purchasing, mainly for replenishing inventory as needed. Agricultural demand was better than industrial demand, and it was expected to end in the Northeast and North China this month. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remained low, with only a slight increase. The factory was in the early stage of autumn fertilizer production, mainly clearing inventory, and was waiting and seeing, purchasing urea only as needed. Despite weak industrial demand, export orders were being shipped, and inventory was continuously decreasing. The nitrogen association announced the export guidance price for urea. The market was expected to be mainly oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short term [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1780 yuan/ton, fluctuated strongly during the day, and finally closed at 1777 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The trading volume was 208,229 lots, a decrease of 2,957 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 1,642 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,140 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed [2] - **Spot**: The spot price continued to rise, and the order - receiving situation was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei factories ranged from 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract was 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [7] - **Supply Data**: On July 10, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,400 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.63% [10] - **Downstream Data**: From July 4th to July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 29.83%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.56%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week [11] Warehouse Receipt Data - On July 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2,645, an increase of 400 compared to the previous trading day, with 400 more in Meishan Xindu [3]

冠通期货研究咨询部 2025 年 7 月 9 日 铜关税超预期，市场急速反映 摘 要 摘要 本周沪铜价格连续下调。美国将从 8 月 1 日起分别对来自日本、韩国 等 14 个国家的进口产品征收 25%至 40%不等的关税。特朗普表示关税不会 给予任何延期，将对进口铜加征 50%关税，高于市场此前预期，但并未说实 行时间，导致美铜快速大幅上涨而其他地区铜价回落。美国非农就业数据 出台，非农就业人数增加 14.7 万人，远超市场预期的 10.6 万人，就业数 据好于预期，增加了市场对美联储降息的观望程度。国内方面，中央财经 委员会第六次会议研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发 展等问题，强调依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品 质，推动落后产能有序退出。供给方面，截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，现货粗炼 费为-43.31 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.31 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼厂加工 费预计止跌回稳，铜供应偏紧的预期或将有所改善，铜关税靴子落地，美 国进口铜通道或将关闭，关税若尽快实施，海上流通货物或回流至出口国 港口，可流通货物将增加。需求方面，截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观 ...