【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2025年12月10日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升0.1个百分点至27.9%，较去年同期低了1.0个百分点，仍处于 近年同期最低水平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅 为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨，减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现，其中道路沥青 开工环比持平于29%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，全国出货量环比增加7.06%至28.06万吨，处于中 性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。伊拉克部分前期故障油 田恢复生产，叠加欧美成品油裂解价差持续下跌，原油价格偏弱震荡。委内瑞拉Jose工业区发生火 灾，20万桶/日的蒸馏装置停运，不过美方对委内瑞拉军事威胁之下，稀释沥青贴水幅度扩大。本周 齐鲁石化计划转产沥青，沥青开工率将略有上升。北方气温下降后，道路施工逐渐收尾，后续需求 将进一步转弱，南方项目增量有限，整体需求一般。近期山东地区沥青价格下跌后企稳，基差维持 在中性水平，个别炼厂开始释放冬储合同，但目前市场较为谨慎，预计沥青期价偏弱震荡。 沥青日报：震荡运行 【期 ...

等待降息兑现 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 10 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。11 月再生铜杆开工率为 23.84%，高于预期 27.68%，环比下降 2.62%，同比下降 12.46%。虽目前精废价差有优势，但由于终端消费 无起色，故优势暂无明显体现。进入 12 月，据 SMM 与市场交流得到有 4 家冶炼厂检修， 预计检修影响量为 0.5 万吨，将在 1 月产量数据有所显示，12 月由于前期冶炼厂多发复 产，产量预计有所增加。价格连续上行后，下游承接力度明显不足，铜管企业目前组织 年度生产中，但受制于铜价的不断上涨，企业谨慎态度观望，增产幅度受限；钢联样本 企业铜板带产量 1.49 万吨，周度产能利用率为 65.65%，受成本上涨影响，生产节奏放 缓，且临近年底，企业生产均维持谨慎态度。精铜杆企业开工下滑，整体出货表现不 佳，企业成品累库，若后续订单乏力，工厂将继续减缓生产节奏。综合来看，沪铜下游 淡季，宏观市场情绪左右盘面波动，美联储降息会议即将开始，目前市场对明年的降息 预期持不确定性，降息落地后，预计盘面将重回基本面。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 10, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, and various industry information providers 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View As of the close on December 10, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like silver and container shipping to Europe had significant increases, while others such as alumina and soda ash declined. The performance of each commodity was affected by factors including supply - demand relationships, production conditions, geopolitical situations, and macro - economic expectations [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Commodity Performance - Gainers: Shanghai silver rose over 5%, container shipping to Europe rose over 3%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, iron ore, soybeans, polysilicon, and soybeans No. 2 rose nearly 2% [6] - Losers: Alumina fell over 3%, soda ash, glass, industrial silicon, and styrene fell over 2%, log, pure benzene, PVC, palm oil, coking coal, SC crude oil, staple fiber, polypropylene, and propylene fell over 1% [7] - Stock Index Futures: CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.15%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.35%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.39%, CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.26% [7] - Bond Futures: 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) main contract rose 0.04%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) main contract rose 0.06%, 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) main contract rose 0.06%, 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) main contract rose 0.30% [7] 3.2 Market Analysis by Commodity 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Market Trend: Opened low and moved lower, with weak intraday fluctuations - Production: In November, the production rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower than the previous month and the same period last year. In December, 4 smelters are expected to have maintenance, and production is expected to increase due to previous restarts [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak. Copper tube enterprises are cautious, and the production of copper plate and strip and copper rod is affected by cost and order issues [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: Opened low and moved high, rising nearly 3% intraday - Production: In November, production continued to grow, and in December, it is expected to increase by about 3%. The capacity utilization rate this week is 75.34%, significantly higher year - on - year [10][11] - Demand: Downstream production continues to grow but at a slower pace, and the impact of energy storage demand needs further verification [11] - Inventory: In November, the inventory decreased slightly after 5 consecutive months of decline [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + will maintain production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntary - cut countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US production is at a high level, and global floating storage is increasing. Some oil fields have resumed production [12] - Demand: The peak demand season is over, and US refined product inventories have increased more than expected [12] - Geopolitics: The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach in the near term, and the US - Venezuela military confrontation has intensified [12] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9%. In December, the planned output is 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year [15] - Demand: Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather, and overall demand is average [15] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [15] 3.2.5 PP - Supply: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate rose 0.10 percentage points to 53.93%. The enterprise operating rate is about 84%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire has decreased. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have decreased slightly [16][17] - Demand: Downstream demand is at the end of the peak season, orders have decreased, and the market lacks large - scale purchases [16][17] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - Supply: The operating rate is about 90%. New capacity has been put into operation, and the operating rate has increased slightly. Petrochemical inventories are at a relatively high level [18] - Demand: The downstream operating rate has decreased, and the peak season of agricultural film is coming to an end. Orders have continued to decline, and downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [18] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18] 3.2.7 PVC - Supply: The operating rate has decreased slightly to 79.89%, and new capacity has been put into operation. Social inventories are still high [19][20] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage [20] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Market Trend: Opened high and moved high but fell more than 1% intraday - Supply: Near the end of the year, imported coal has increased, and the production rate of coal mines has decreased slightly. Some factories may reduce production after completing their annual tasks [21] - Demand: Iron water production has decreased, and coking and steel mills are in the off - season. The demand for coking coal is expected to continue to decline [21] - Inventory: The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased, while the inventory of mines has increased significantly [21] - Price Outlook: The fundamentals are weak, but short - term demand may increase due to restocking [21] 3.2.9 Urea - Market Trend: Opened high and moved low, then strengthened intraday - Supply: Upstream devices have both shutdowns and restarts, and the daily production has not decreased significantly [23] - Demand: Downstream winter storage and export orders are stable. The new orders of compound fertilizer factories are not good, and the operating rate is approaching the high - point of the same period in recent years [23] - Inventory: The inventory has continued to decline, and the current supply - demand logic is relatively balanced [23] - Price Outlook: Short - term strength, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's interest - rate decision on commodities [23]

【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2601合约减仓震荡下行，最低价6161元/吨，最高价6220元/吨，最终收盘于6162元/吨， 在20日均线下方，跌幅1.14%。持仓量减少30955手至380203手。 【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月10日 【行情分析】 截至12月5日当周，PP下游开工率环比上涨0.10个百分点至53.93%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于44.1%，塑编订单环比小幅下降，略低于去年同期。12月10 日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在84%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例下跌 至25.5%左右。月初石化累库较多，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。成本端，伊拉克部分前期 故障油田恢复生产，叠加欧美成品油裂解价差持续下跌，原油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能40万吨/ 年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有减少。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单开始 下降，BOPP膜价格下跌后暂稳，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺 激成交。国家发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开会议，研究制定价格 ...

| 河北 1720 1720 0 | | --- | | 河南 1690 1680 10 | | 山东 1700 1690 10 | | 主流地区市场价 山西 1530 1530 0 | | （元/吨） 江苏 1680 1680 0 安徽 1670 1680 -10 | | 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 | | 河北东光 1700 1700 0 | | 工厂价 山东华鲁 1700 1700 0 （元/吨） 江苏灵谷 1730 1730 0 | | 安徽昊源 1650 1650 0 山东05基差 -20 -16 -4 | | 基差 山东01基差 -34 -32 -2 | | （元/吨） 河北05基差 20 -6 26 | | 河北01基差 6 -22 28 1-5价差 64 63 1 月差（元/吨） | | 5-9价差 -14 -16 2 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 11228 11477 -249 | | 中东FOB 375 375 0 | | 美湾FOB 355.5 355.5 0 前一日国际报价: 埃及FOB 450 450 0 | | 大颗粒（美元/吨） | | 波罗 ...

发布日期：2025年12月10日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期 累库，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火， 泽连斯基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落， 欧美成品油裂解基差高位持续回落。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较 难，美国仍在施压乌克兰。目前G7和欧盟考虑禁止俄罗斯石油出口海运服务，取代油价上限。美国 与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，特朗普暗示，五角大楼将很快对委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团发动陆 地打击。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。欧美成品油裂解价差持续回落，美联储12 月议息会议尘埃落定后，市场仍将担忧原油需求，美国石油钻井平台数量回升，OPEC+持续增产，中 东地区出口增加，全球原油浮库持续增加，里海管道联盟处于维修状态的3号SPM将在11日左右恢复。 伊拉克近期恢复了卢克石油公司西古尔纳2号油田。叠加美国仍在极力促成俄乌 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尚无驱动，低位盘整 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 10 日 【行情分析】 大宗商品行情回暖，尿素高开低走后日内偏强。现货报价涨跌互现，市场 价格受期货走向影响，低价收单有转好。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿 素出厂报价范围多在 1630-1680 元/吨，低端价格在河南地区。基本面来看，上 游装置停车与复产并存，气头装置依旧在陆续减产停产中，日产数据尚未有明 显大幅减少。下游冬储肥及出口订单陆续走货，保持稳定需求增量。复合肥工 厂目前新单成交不畅，原料价格上涨之下，利润受挤压，发运前期订单为主。 本周预计开工负荷将继续回升，但目前已接近近年同期的开工高点，回升空间 不足，后续对尿素支撑以稳为主。本期库存继续去化，环比去化 4.36%，目前 的供需逻辑相对紧平衡，预计短期内库存依旧呈现去化趋势。宏观视角暂无明 显提振，微观基本面尚有韧性，短期偏强，关注美联储议息对大宗商品的影 响。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1650 元/吨开盘,高开低走，日内震荡偏强， 最终收于 1645 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅+0.06%，持仓量 142791 手（-7855 手）。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月10日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.33个百分点至79.89%，PVC开工 率小幅减少，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅下降，下游制品订单不佳。印度将关于 PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价 换量，只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍下跌30-60美元/吨后出口签单回落，上周出口签单基本稳 定。上周社会库存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整 阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下 降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。新 增产能上，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化新近投产。虽然国家发展改革委会同有关 部门及相关行业协会召开会议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标准等相关工作，给予大宗商品一 定提振。但PVC基本面上，宜宾天原、宁波镇洋等生产企业开工预期下降，PVC开工率略有 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On December 10, 2025, the plastic market is expected to have weak and volatile trends. The supply side has new capacity put into operation and the plastic operating rate is slightly rising. The demand side sees the PE downstream operating rate at a low - level in the same period in recent years, with the agricultural film season ending and orders decreasing. The cost - end crude oil price is falling, and the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to potential new capacity and the exit of the agricultural film season [1] Group 3: According to Related Catalogs 1.行情分析 - On December 10, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a neutral level. As of the week of December 5, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%, with agricultural film orders decreasing. The petrochemical inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price fell due to the resumption of production in some Iraqi oilfields and the decline in the refined - oil crack spread in Europe and America. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation. The agricultural film season is ending and downstream demand is expected to decline. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and the market is expected to be weak and volatile. The L - PP spread is expected to fall [1] 2.期现行情 Futures - The 2601 plastic contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6523 yuan/ton, the highest was 6592 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6561 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, down 0.52%. The position volume decreased by 72,250 lots to 267,012 lots [2] Spot - Most PE spot prices fell, with the range from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6500 - 6770 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8170 - 8880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6800 - 7570 yuan/ton [3] 3.基本面跟踪 - Supply side: On December 10, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a neutral level - Demand side: As of the week of December 5, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%, with agricultural film and packaging film orders decreasing. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a low level in the same period in recent years - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 6.9 million tons, 0.4 million tons higher than the same period last year, at a high level in the same period in recent years - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell to $62/barrel, while the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton [4]

Group 1: Hot News - In December, the expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season is 4.253 billion bushels, unchanged from November; the expected ending stock is 290 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 302 million bushels and unchanged from November; the expected yield per acre is 53 bushels, also unchanged from November [2] - Argentina's economic minister announced a reduction in soybean export tax from 26% to 24%, and a cut in the export tax of soybean by - products from 24.5% to 22.5%. Export taxes on wheat, barley, corn, and sorghum were also lowered [2] - On December 9, key coking enterprises from various regions held a market analysis meeting to discuss the supply - demand pattern and price trends of the coke market [2] - On December 9, it was reported that a polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was established. It aims to explore potential strategic cooperation opportunities in the industry [3] - The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Supervision Administration ordered Anyang Dazhong Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for 1 day due to major accident hazards [3] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on include lithium carbonate, coking coal, live pigs, silver, and Shanghai gold [4] - Night - time performance of commodity futures: the precious metals sector had a 30.06% increase, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector with 24.61%, and the oilseeds and oils sector with 8.81% [4] - Changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days are presented, covering various sectors such as agricultural products, grains, and chemicals [5] Group 3: Performance of Major Asset Classes - For equity assets, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.37% and a monthly increase of 0.54%, while the Hang Seng Index had a daily decline of 1.29% and a monthly decline of 1.64% [6] - In the fixed - income category, 10 - year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.12% and a monthly increase of 0.04% [6] - Among commodities, the CRB Commodity Index had no daily change, and London spot gold had a 59.67% increase in the past year [6] Group 4: Major Commodity Trends - Graphs show the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, and LME copper, as well as the ratios between gold and oil, and copper and gold [7]