早盘速递 2025/10/24 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动 2025-10-23 2025-10-22 2025-10-21 2025-10-20 2025-10-17 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 上证指数 | 日涨跌幅% 0.22 | 月内涨跌幅% 1.02 | 年内涨跌幅（%） 17.03 | 近一年走势 | | | 上证50 沪深300 | 0.56 0.30 | 1.27 -0.74 | 12.74 17.06 | | | | 中证500 | 0.20 | -3.63 | 24.75 | | | 权益 | 标普500 | 0.58 | 0.75 | 14.5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is in a supply surplus situation, but the price has dropped significantly since October. Recently, with the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States and the change in the US attitude towards Russia, the crude oil price is expected to continue to rebound at a low level. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the inventory of US crude oil has increased more than expected, and the inventory of refined oil has decreased more than expected. The overall oil inventory has increased. US refineries have entered the autumn maintenance season, and the refinery operating rate has decreased by 6.7 percentage points. Russia has extended the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year, but its crude oil export volume remains high [1] - The end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payrolls data, and uncertainties in China - US trade have worried the market about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the crude oil export in the Iraqi Kurdistan region has restarted, and exports in the Middle East have increased [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main contract 2512 of crude oil futures rose 4.05% to 459.7 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 445.8 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 463.7 yuan per ton. The trading volume decreased by 3826 to 43,154 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and has raised the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. EIA has also raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.80 per barrel to $68.64 per barrel, but expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and keep the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel [3] - OPEC has raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and kept the growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has lowered the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day and kept the growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day. IEA has also raised the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and raised the growth rate in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, and the oil supply surplus has intensified [3] Inventory and Production Data - On October 17, EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory for the week ending October 10 increased by 3.524 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 288,000 barrels and 3.45% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 75,000 barrels. Refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 294,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels [4] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its crude oil production in August was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its production in September 2025 increased by 524,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The US crude oil production for the week ending October 10 increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.636 million barrels per day, reaching a new record high [4] Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.85% increase compared to the same period last year. The weekly demand for gasoline decreased by 5.20% to 8.455 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.713 million barrels per day, a 3.19% decrease compared to the same period last year. The weekly demand for diesel decreased by 2.60% to 4.233 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.984 million barrels per day, a 0.19% increase compared to the same period last year. The weekly supply of US crude oil products decreased by 11.48% month - on - month [5][7]

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年10月23日 【行情分析】 10月23日，内蒙古宝丰全密度2线检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至86.5%左右，目前开工 率处于中性水平。PE下游开工率环比上升0.56个百分点至44.92%，农膜进入旺季，国庆节后，农膜订 单和农膜原料库存再次增加，只是相较往年仍偏低，包装膜订单小幅减少，整体PE下游开工率仍处 于近年同期偏低位水平。今年国庆石化累库幅度与往年类似，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。 成本端，近日中美即将进行新一轮的经贸磋商，美国制裁俄罗斯重要石油公司，原油价格低位反弹 幅度较大。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE试开车，80万吨/年的中石油广西 石化近期投产。塑料开工率略有上升。农膜进入旺季，各地区农膜价格稳定，后续需求将进一步提 升，农膜企业持续备货，订单逐步积累，开工情况略有改善，或将带来一定提振，只是目前旺季成 色不及预期，国庆节后备货需求阶段性减弱，下游企业采购意愿不足。中美双方相互对对方船舶收 取船舶特别港务费，对于经济增长的担忧加剧。塑料产业还未有反内卷实际政策落地，当然反内卷 与老旧装置淘汰，解 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The recent cost increase has pushed the price of PP to rebound, but PP lacks the internal momentum to drive significant price hikes. It is expected that PP will experience a weak and volatile trend [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to slightly decrease, being slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On October 23, new maintenance devices such as the first and second lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase I were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 80%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn dropped to around 25% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation of petrochemicals during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, due to the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States and the US sanctions on important Russian oil companies, the crude oil price has rebounded significantly from its low level [1] - In terms of supply, new production capacities have been put into operation, and recently, the number of maintenance devices has increased [1] - Although the weather has improved and the downstream is gradually entering the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the peak - season demand is currently lower than expected, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. After the National Day, the stocking demand has weakened periodically, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - China and the United States are charging special port fees on each other's ships, increasing concerns about economic growth. There are no actual policies for anti - involution in the PP industry yet, but anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upwards. The lowest price was 6616 yuan/ton, the highest was 6710 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6691 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.27%. The position volume decreased by 14,771 lots to 618,484 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions increased. The price of drawn yarn was reported at 6390 - 6630 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 23, new maintenance devices such as the first and second lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase I were added, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 80%, a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to slightly decrease, being slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 760,000 tons, which was 10,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation of petrochemicals during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $15/ton to $760/ton week - on - week [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 成交氛围回暖 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 23 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素盘面高开低走，日内上涨。受期货反弹影响，上游工厂报价反弹， 市场成交氛围开启好转。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多 在 1500-1540 元/吨，低端价格上涨 10-20 元/吨。基本面来看，前期停车企业装 置逐渐复产，原料端动力煤价格持续上行，尿素成本端煤炭价格走强，前期尿素 价格下跌至水煤浆成本线后出现反弹，天然气企业连续亏损，中原大化已因亏损 问题而检修停车，即将进入供暖季节，预计天然气企业开工后续成下降趋势。需 求端，随着天气转好，小麦播种工作逐渐开启，下游逐渐拿货，复合肥工厂本期 增加开工负荷，环比提升 3.53%附近，同比去年偏低 2.03%，且成品库存依然在 持续去化阶段，东北地区开工或有推迟，工厂开工率增速或较前期放缓。目前正 处于库存累库阶段，但本期库存增加较上期缓慢。整体来说，秋季肥需求继续推 进，市场氛围开始好转，期现均有改善，目前基差依然贴水，农需支撑下，盘面 震荡偏强为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1628 元/吨开盘, 高开低走，日内上涨 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年10月23日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少5.94个百分点至76.69%，PVC开工 率减少较多，但仍处于近年同期偏高水平。国庆节后归来，PVC下游恢复幅度较大，PVC下游开工超 过国庆节前水平，但仍处于历年同期偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执 行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中 中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反 倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍较好，目前出口签单暂未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏 高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅 仍较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比继续回落， 仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年 偏高。同时新增产能上，50万吨/年的万华化学8月份已经量产，40万吨 ...

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1590 1580 10 河南 1550 1540 10 山东 1550 1540 10 山西 1480 1460 20 江苏 1550 1540 10 安徽 1560 1560 0 黑龙江 1620 1620 0 内蒙古 1610 1610 0 河北东光 1560 1560 0 山东华鲁 1560 1560 0 江苏灵谷 1610 1610 0 安徽昊源 1560 1550 10 山东05基差 -142 -125 -17 山东01基差 -179 -158 -21 河北05基差 -102 -95 -7 河北01基差 -139 -128 -11 1-5价差 73 75 -2 5-9价差 -37 -33 -4 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 5484 5556 -72 中东FOB 373.5 373.5 0 美湾FOB 376.5 376.5 0 埃及FOB 432.5 432.5 0 波罗的海FOB 370 370 0 巴西CFR 422.5 422.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 23 日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010- ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年10月23日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升1.3个百分点至35.8%，较去年同期高了8.0个百分点，处于近 年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，10月份国内沥青预计排产268.2万吨，环比减少0.4万吨，减 幅为0.1%，同比增加35.0万吨，增幅为15.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数稳定，其中道路沥 青开工环比持平于29.0%，仍处于近年同期最低水平，受到资金和部分地区降雨制约。上周，国庆假 期归来，全国出货量环比增加14.48%至25.33万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比继 续上升，但仍处于近年来同期的最低位。无棣鑫岳等炼厂有检修计划，沥青产量将有所减少，但仍 处高位。北方多地项目赶工，只是个别地区降温明显，南方降雨增加，另外，资金端制约，市场谨 慎，影响沥青需求。近日中美即将进行新一轮的经贸磋商，美国制裁俄罗斯重要石油公司，原油价 格低位反弹幅度较大，近两日山东地区沥青基差从高位降幅较大，目前在中性偏高水平，建议沥青 期价谨慎观望。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 今日沥青期货2601合约上涨2.31%至3277 ...

早盘速递 2025/10/23 热点资讯 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (100,000) (50,000) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动 2025-10-22 2025-10-21 2025-10-20 2025-10-17 2025-10-16 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 日涨跌幅% | 月内涨跌幅% | 年内涨跌幅（%） | 近一年走势 | | | 上证指数 | -0.07 | 0.80 | 16.77 | | | | 上证50 | 0.09 | 0.71 | 12.12 | | | | 沪深300 | -0.33 | -1.04 | 16.71 | | | | 中证500 | -0.80 | -3. ...