Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The U.S. dollar index rebounds, putting pressure on copper prices. Although currently in the off - season of consumption, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities boosts copper demand. However, affected by U.S. tariff policies and domestic subsidy policies, the overall demand in the second half of the year is expected to be relatively weak year - on - year. With overseas trading of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and independence issues, the dollar index decline supports the non - ferrous metal market. The domestic copper supply is expected to be tight, and demand is about to enter the peak season. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - China's imports of copper ore concentrates in July were about 2.56 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase, and port inventories of concentrates also rebounded. After the smelter processing fees showed an upward inflection point, they continued to decline in recent periods. The sulfuric acid price has reached a high, and its profit - compensation for smelters will decline. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons, and domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline month - on - month. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will return to the domestic market, squeezing the domestic market. As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons. Although in the off - season, domestic power grid investment drives demand, but external demand will weaken in the second half of the year, and domestic demand has also been advanced [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low, rose during the day, then fell back, and closed at 79,660 yuan/ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 200 yuan/ton, and in South China was 40 yuan/ton. On September 1, 2025, the LME official price was $9,896/ton, and the spot premium was - $91.5/ton [4] Supply Side - As of August 29, the latest data showed that the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.25/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.12 cents/pound [7] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 19,500 tons, an increase of 121 tons from the previous period. As of September 1, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 82,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 158,800 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 277,800 short tons, an increase of 2,617 short tons from the previous period [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the asphalt futures will fluctuate in the near term. The supply side shows a decline in the start - up rate and an expected increase in production in September. The demand side is restricted by factors such as funds, weather, and investment data. The cost - side support of asphalt is limited due to the low - level fluctuation of crude oil prices [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The operation strategy is range operation. The asphalt start - up rate last week decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 29.3% month - on - month, 3.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.686 million tons, an increase of 273,000 tons or 11.3% month - on - month and an increase of 683,000 tons or 34.1% year - on - year. The start - up rates of downstream industries were mostly stable last week, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining unchanged at 28.33% month - on - month. The national asphalt shipments increased by 11.17% to 263,800 tons week - on - week. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased this week but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The resumption of oil extraction in Venezuela by Chevron may reduce the discount for China's purchase of asphalt raw materials. There are factors both promoting and restricting asphalt demand, and the cost - side support of asphalt is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the asphalt futures 2510 contract rose 1.17% to 3,551 yuan/ton today, with the lowest price at 3,547 yuan/ton and the highest price at 3,582 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 3,747 to 105,860 lots [2]. - In the basis market, the mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract fell to - 11 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the start - up rate of asphalt decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 29.3% month - on - month due to the shutdown or conversion to residue production of some devices. The start - up rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Investment data shows that from January to July, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased slightly compared with that from January to June 2025 but was still negative. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased to - 2.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to 3.2% [4]. - As of the week of August 29, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining unchanged at 28.33% month - on - month, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - The government has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. As of the end of July, the stock of social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%; the M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; and the balance of RMB loans was 268.51 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The acceleration of government bond issuance was the main reason for the increase in the growth rate of the social financing scale [4]. Inventory - As of the week of August 29, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.5% compared with the week of August 22, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5].

2025-06-23 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料 我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证 报告中的内容和意见仅供参考 并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价 我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何 直接或间接损失概不负责 本报告仅向特定客户传送 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版 须注明出处为冠通期货股份有 王 静，执业资格证号F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 压榨厂：豆油：库存：中国（周） 棕榈油现货主力合约基差(元/吨） 2025-06-23 菜油现货主力合约基差(元/吨） 豆油现货主力合约基差(元/吨） 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2022 2023 2024 2025 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2022 2023 2024 20 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/09/02 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 截至夜盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，沪银涨超 2%，LU 燃油、棕榈 油、液化气、沥青、燃料油、原油、不锈钢涨超 1%；跌幅方面，烧碱跌超 1%。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.84%报 3545.8 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 2.46%报 41.725 美元/盎司。随着市场对 ...

热点资讯 1.印度石油部长哈迪普表示，印度没有从俄罗斯进口石油中"牟取暴利"，印度的石油采购稳定了市场，同时阻止了油价升至 每桶200美元。 2.据央视新闻，截至2025年8月31日，三峡电站累计发电量突破1.8万亿千瓦时，相当于节约标准煤约5.4亿吨，减排二氧化碳 约14.8亿吨。此外，三峡电站还与乌东德、白鹤滩、溪洛渡、向家坝、葛洲坝共六座电站共同构成世界最大清洁能源走廊。今 年上半年，这条能源走廊累计发电量达1266.6亿千瓦时，同比增长60亿千瓦时，创历史同期新高，相当于节约标准煤3820万 吨，减排二氧化碳约1亿吨。 3.隆众资讯最新数据显示，截至9月1日当周，山东独立炼厂原油到港量298.2万吨，环比下跌3.4万吨，跌幅为1.13%。本期到 港原油以中质原油为主，其中俄罗斯原油到港40万吨，且有1船新的稀释沥青到港。 早盘速递 2025/9/2 板块持仓 (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate on the strong side. The overseas market is trading on the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the issue of its independence, with the falling US dollar index supporting the non - ferrous metal market. Fundamentally, copper production is expected to decline in September, and imported copper may increase. Although demand is affected by tariffs and pre - emptive exports, there is an improving trend [10]. - The decline of lithium carbonate prices is limited. After the market rebound, it stimulates downstream purchasing sentiment. With the approaching of the peak season, there is demand support below. However, the market is easily affected by industry news, and attention should be paid to mine disturbances [12]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to short on rallies. Although the price once rebounded due to positive EIA data and market bets on the Fed's interest - rate cut, the consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the supply - demand situation is weakening [13][15]. - Asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply - demand situation is weak, with the开工 rate falling, demand restricted by factors such as funds and weather, and limited cost support from crude oil [16]. - PP is expected to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate is gradually rising, and the peak season may bring some boost. However, the supply is increasing, and the market is affected by global trade wars and anti - involution policies [17][18]. - Plastic is expected to fluctuate. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. Although the agricultural film industry is improving, the overall demand is still weak, and it is affected by anti - involution policies [19]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate downward. The supply is high, the demand is weak, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is large [20][21]. - The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The price is under pressure due to imported coal, and the demand is affected by environmental protection and production cuts. Attention should be paid to the progress of coke price adjustments [22]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate. In the autumn fertilizer peak season, there is some demand support, but the supply is still abundant, and the market is in a weak supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton fluctuation range [24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 1, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Polysilicon rose more than 6%, Shanghai silver rose more than 4%, caustic soda and Shanghai gold rose more than 2%, and container shipping to Europe, Shanghai nickel, and stainless steel (SS) rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, glass, coke, and coking coal fell more than 3%, lithium carbonate, iron ore, and soda ash fell more than 2%, and rebar and cotton fell nearly 2%. Stock index futures also showed different degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:19 on September 1, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai copper 2510 inflowed 1.989 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2510 inflowed 1.741 billion yuan, and Shanghai gold 2510 inflowed 1.488 billion yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 300 2509 outflowed 4.304 billion yuan, CSI 500 2509 outflowed 3.721 billion yuan, and CSI 1000 2509 outflowed 2.89 billion yuan [8]. Individual Variety Analysis Copper - The market opened high and moved low, with a strong - side oscillation. The US PCE price index rose in July. China's copper imports increased in July, and the port inventory of concentrates rebounded. The smelter processing fee decreased recently, and the sulfuric acid price may have reached a high level. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline. The import of copper may increase, which will affect the domestic market. The demand is affected by factors such as domestic investment in power grid facilities and the weakening of external demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports decreased. The domestic production is expected to decline from August to September. The demand is supported by the peak - season stocking of power battery factories, but the market is easily affected by industry news [12]. Crude Oil - It is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. US crude oil and gasoline inventories continue to decrease, and the refinery operating rate is still high. OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. EIA and IEA both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [13][15]. Asphalt - The supply - side operating rate decreased last week, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream operating rate is mostly stable, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased, but it is still at a low level. The cost support from crude oil is limited, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [16]. PP - The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate is at a neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure due to the end of the consumption peak season and OPEC+'s production increase. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak, but the peak season may bring some boost [17][18]. Plastic - The operating rate decreased on September 1, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. The agricultural film industry is improving, but the overall demand is still weak [19]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is mostly stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate is still low. India extended the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping tax on Chinese PVC increased, weakening the export expectation. The social inventory is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market. The new production capacity is increasing, and the price is under pressure [20][21]. Coking Coal - The price opened low and moved low, with a downward oscillation. The price of Shanxi coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The import of coking coal increased in July, and the domestic production decreased due to environmental protection and production cuts. The independent coking enterprises' profit is positive, and the coking coal inventory is decreasing. The coke price increase is not yet finalized, and the steel mill's profit is weakening [22]. Urea - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The spot market price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased in August due to maintenance and environmental protection restrictions, but the new production capacity will be put into operation. The demand of compound fertilizer factories decreased due to the September parade, and the industrial demand is affected by the real - estate market. The inventory increased, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton range [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings provided in the content. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production, and the global oil surplus is expected to intensify in Q4. The end of the consumption peak season, poor US non - farm employment, and global trade wars have led to weakening crude oil demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [8][9]. Asphalt - In September, asphalt supply and demand are expected to increase. The cost - side support is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on asphalt and short on crude oil or conduct range trading [3][62]. PVC - PVC supply is high, exports are expected to weaken, and the real - estate market is still in adjustment. Although September is the traditional peak season, the improvement is limited. It is expected to decline and recommended to short on rallies [3][111]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin production remains high, and downstream demand is expected to improve marginally in September. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to fluctuate. Range trading is recommended [3][154]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil Core View - Crude oil supply and demand are weakening. OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and demand is affected by factors such as the end of the consumption peak season and poor non - farm employment. It is recommended to short on rallies [8][9]. Investment Strategy - Short on rallies [10]. Market Review - In August, domestic crude oil prices fell. The price rose in late July due to geopolitical factors and then declined due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and concerns about the US economy [14]. Position and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 19, WTI non - commercial net long positions increased slightly compared to the previous week but decreased significantly compared to the end of July. As of August 27, Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipts increased compared to the end of July but remained at a low level [18]. Production - OPEC's June production decreased, while July production increased. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September. US crude oil production increased in the week of August 22 [22]. Drilling Rigs - In August, the number of US oil drilling rigs continued to decrease and stabilized recently. As of August 22, it was 411, 4 less than in the week of July 25 [26]. Imports and Exports - As of August 22, US crude oil imports decreased, and exports also decreased. Imports were at a neutral - low level, and exports were at a neutral - high level [30]. China's Processing and Imports - China's July crude oil processing volume increased month - on - month and was at a high level in the same period over the years. Imports increased month - on - month and were at a neutral - high level in the same period [34]. US Economic Data - In August, US inflation data showed different trends. CPI remained stable, PPI increased significantly, and PCE inflation was in line with expectations [38]. Crack Spreads - In August, US and European gasoline and diesel crack spreads increased [42]. Demand - EIA and other institutions have different forecasts for global oil supply and demand. US gasoline and diesel demand increased week - on - week [46]. Inventory - As of August 22, US crude oil, gasoline, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories changed. Crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, and the strategic petroleum reserve increased [50][54]. Geopolitical Risks - There are ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, which may affect the oil market [56]. Asphalt Core View - Supply and demand are expected to increase in September. The cost - side support is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on asphalt and short on crude oil or conduct range trading [62]. Market Review - In August, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio increased, and the asphalt basis fell to a neutral level [70][73]. Production and Consumption - July asphalt production and apparent consumption increased. As of August 29, the national asphalt shipment volume increased [81][85]. Supply and Profit - In August, the asphalt operating rate decreased and was at a low level in the same period. The spot - end profit loss in Shandong Province narrowed slightly [89]. Downstream - From January to July, road transportation investment and national highway construction investment decreased year - on - year. As of August 29, the downstream operating rate was mostly stable [101][106]. PVC Core View - Supply is high, exports are expected to weaken, and the real - estate market is still in adjustment. Although September is the traditional peak season, the improvement is limited. It is expected to decline and recommended to short on rallies [111]. Market Review - There is no clear market review information provided. Upstream - In August, calcium carbide prices fell and then were expected to rise slightly. The calcium carbide operating rate increased slightly but remained low, and losses increased. The semi - coke operating rate rose, and prices increased, but losses did not narrow [120]. Production - July PVC production increased, and the maintenance loss also increased [124]. Operating Rate - As of August 29, the PVC operating rate decreased to 76.02% but remained at a relatively high level in the same period [128]. Imports and Exports - In July, PVC imports increased, and exports decreased compared to the previous month but remained at a high level in the same period. India's anti - dumping tax is expected to weaken China's PVC exports in the second half of the year [135]. Real - Estate Data - From January to July, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased year - on - year. As of August 31, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period [139]. Downstream Operating Rate - As of August 29, the PVC downstream average operating rate decreased to 42.60% and was at a low level in the same period [144]. Inventory - As of August 28, PVC social inventory increased and remained high [148]. Polyolefins Core View - In September, production remains high, and downstream demand is expected to improve marginally. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to fluctuate. Range trading is recommended [154]. Market Review - Futures prices fell, and spot prices were stable. The basis of plastics and PP rebounded slightly but remained at a low level [165][169]. Production - In July, PE and PP production increased, with high - level maintenance for PP [174][181]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of PE and PP increased recently and were at a neutral level [178][185]. Imports and Exports - In July, PE imports decreased, and exports increased. PP imports decreased, and exports increased. The net imports of both are expected to decline [192][198]. Downstream - From January to July, the cumulative production of plastic products increased, and the export amount decreased slightly. As of August 29, the downstream operating rates of PE and PP increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period [202][206]. Inventory - As of August 29, petrochemical inventory decreased and was at a neutral level in the same period [210]. Profit - In August, coal - based and oil - based PE profits changed. Coal - based PP was profitable, while other processes were mostly in losses [215].

大宗商品投资热点追踪与分析 --冠通期货9月宏观经济报告 制作日期：2025年9月1日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 核心观点 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 8月，资本市场风险偏好抬升，风险资产价格普遍收涨。海外，美国的关税谈判波澜不惊，但关税的影响却开始显现，爆冷的非农数据给资本市场吓 了一跳，通胀的韧性回升则弱化了美联储降息的预期，宏观数据的怪异，特朗普对美联储人事的干预，挑战着美联储的独立性更令其政策选择左右为难， 鲍威尔顺势修订货币政策框架，弱化通胀的影响，市场鸽派解读9月重启降息几成共识。投资者风险偏好抬升，波动率VIX大幅下降，全球主要股市多数收 涨，BDI小涨，美元大跌非美货币走强，大宗商品涨多跌少。国内，"反内卷"行情虽然降温，但A股的强势亮眼不断吸引资金的青睐，赚钱效应之下加速 投资者存款搬家，商品期货伴随着反内卷的降温市场风格反转，原油的大跌更是拖累能源板块，工业品除了贵金属 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the non - manufacturing sector continued to expand [3]. - The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [3]. 3. Summary by Category Manufacturing PMI - **Overall Index**: The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from July. Large - scale enterprises had a PMI of 50.8% (up 0.5 percentage points), medium - scale enterprises had a PMI of 48.9% (down 0.6 percentage points), and small - scale enterprises had a PMI of 46.6% (up 0.2 percentage points) [2]. - **Sub - indices**: Among the 5 sub - indices, the production index (50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points) and the supplier delivery time index (50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points) were above the critical point, while the new order index (49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points), the raw material inventory index (48.0%, up 0.3 percentage points), and the employment index (47.9%, down 0.1 percentage points) were below the critical point [2]. Non - manufacturing PMI - **Overall Index**: The non - manufacturing business activity index in August was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from July. The construction industry business activity index was 49.1% (down 1.5 percentage points), and the service industry business activity index was 50.5% (up 0.5 percentage points) [3]. - **Industry Performance**: Industries such as railway transportation, water transportation, air transportation, and capital market services were in the high - prosperity range above 60.0%, while the retail and real estate industries were below the critical point [3]. Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index in August was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from July, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of enterprises' production and business activities [3].

【冠通研究】 降息预期继续升温 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜高开低走，日内震荡偏强，尾盘于 79410 元/吨。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水 210 元/吨，华南现货升贴水 60 元/吨。2025 年 8 月 29 日，LME 官方价 9789 美元/吨，现货升贴水-85.5 美元/吨。 -500 -300 -100 100 300 500 700 900 华东阴极铜升贴水（元/吨） 2022 2023 2024 2025 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 华南阴极铜升贴水（元/吨） 2022 2023 2024 2025 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 29 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开低走，日内震荡承压。欧盟推动欧美协议落地，立法提案取消部分对 美关税，推动汽车关税降至 15%。美联储沃勒表示支持 9 月降息 25 基点，未来三到六个 月继续降。库克就免职起诉，警告免职会让美国经济有风险，美联储事件继续发酵。供 给方面，智利国有铜业公司（Codelco） ...