冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年2月9日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.0个百分点至24.5%，较去年同期高了0.1个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯 数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨，减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。上周，临近 春节，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比下跌5个百分点至9%。上周，山东地区在价格上涨后终端需求疲软， 其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少1.33%至21.16万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比小幅下降，处于近年来同期 的最低位。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多中国报价委内瑞 拉原油贴水5美元/桶，这比2025年12月份的贴水13美元/桶大幅缩小，印度石油公司高管表示， ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/2/9 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 2.03%报 4988.60 美元/盎司， 周涨 5.13%，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.06%报 77.53 美元/盎司，周跌 1.28%。 2. 美油主力合约收涨 0.33%，报 63.5 美元/桶，周 ...

早盘速递 2026/2/9 热点资讯 重点关注 尿素、沪铜、白银、原油、碳酸锂 夜盘表现 板块表现 -6.00 -5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.08% 贵金属, 33.48% 油脂油料, 8.63% 软商品, 2.59% 有色, 25.24% 煤焦钢矿, 10.51% 能源, 2.79% 化工, 10.89% 谷物, 1.01% 农副产品, 2.79% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (1,400,000) (1,200,000) (1,000,000) (800,000) (600,000) (400,000) (200,000) 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 Wind农副产品 W ...

| | | | | | 2026/2/6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 河北 | 本期 1790 | 前值 1790 | 涨跌 0 | 一周走势 | | 河南 | | 1760 | 1760 | 0 | | | 山东 | | 1780 | 1780 | 0 | | | 主流地区市场价 | 山西 | 1640 | 1640 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 江苏 | 1790 | 1800 | -10 | | | 安徽 | | 1790 | 1790 | 0 | | | 黑龙江 | | 1780 | 1780 | 0 | | | 内蒙古 | | 1790 | 1790 | 0 | | | 河北东光 | | 1770 | 1770 | 0 | | | 工厂价 | 山东华鲁 | 1770 | 1770 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 江苏灵谷 | 1820 | 1820 | 0 | | | 安徽昊源 | | 1750 | 1750 | 0 | | | 山东05基差 | | -17 | 0 | -17 | | | 基差 | 山东01基差 | 19 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cyclical bottom of soybean has emerged, with limited subsequent decline space, and it is expected to continue the volatile trend [1] - Corn is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state before the Spring Festival, and buying at dips can be considered if there is a significant decline [2] - The continuous promotion of capacity reduction will be the core theme of the egg supply side in 2026. The in - production laying hen inventory is expected to decline year - on - year in the second quarter, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish in the short term [2] - The darkest time for live pigs around the Spring Festival is being realized, and subsequent attention should be paid to the regulation of reproductive sows to construct the far - month supply - demand balance sheet [4] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean - Low - protein soybean prices in the Northeast are stable, with limited grassroots inventory and strong price - holding psychology. High - protein soybean supply is tight with a high - quality - high - price feature, and some 39% protein content commodity beans are around 2.2 yuan/jin [1] - On February 2nd, 60,608 tons of 2022 reserve soybeans were auctioned and all were sold, but the auction did not warm up the overall market, and the acceptance of high prices is still weak. Most traders are digesting inventory and fulfilling previous contracts [1] Corn - As the Spring Festival approaches, the corn spot market is approaching the end of trading. Downstream enterprises have basically completed stocking, and deep - processing enterprises are starting shutdown maintenance [2] - This year, the demand for corn in Northeast China is strong, and the grain - selling progress is faster than the same period. However, recent temperature rises and the approaching Spring Festival have increased the enthusiasm of grassroots farmers to sell grain, leading to an increase in corn listings and a continuous decline in prices [2] Egg - Based on the 4 - month cycle from chick sales to in - production inventory, the low - replenishment situation since the second quarter of 2025 will be concentrated in 2026. The in - production laying hen inventory is expected to turn from an increase to a decrease year - on - year in the second quarter, and may fall below 1.3 billion in the middle of the year [2] - The Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end, and the egg futures price has dropped significantly. Attention should be paid to the supply - side reduction performance before the Spring Festival. There is no obvious short - term driver, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2] Live Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, which is 101.6% of the normal reserve. The national live pig slaughter in 2025 was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. The national live pig inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% [3] - From late January to early February, as the pre - holiday slaughter window narrows, concentrated slaughter may drive pig prices further down. Although farmers are resistant to price drops and there are weather disturbances, they can only slow down the decline rate [3][4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：供需双弱 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 【行情分析】 焦煤日内低开低走，日内下跌。国内矿山逐渐开启假期，部分大型煤矿库 存假期内继续发运，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用 率为 86.67%，环比减少 2.46%。原煤日均产量达到 192.53 万吨。假期临近，矿 山安全检查及停产增多，下游冬储备货收尾中，矿山焦煤库存去化，周度环比 减少 2.53 万吨，上周焦化企业累库 67.6 万吨，钢厂累库 9.84 万吨，冬储补库 依然在继续，距离春节假期依然有两周备货时间，库存将继续下沉，但目前已 接近尾声阶段。下游钢材成交量不佳，下游铁水产量环比增加 0.26%，周度日 均产量 228.58 万吨。据外媒援引印尼行业官员 2 月 3 日表示，由于印尼政府提 议大规模削减煤炭产量，部分印尼矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口，亚洲买家暂时难 以获得印尼煤炭供应。印尼市场消息对焦煤本身基本面影响消化后，市场回归 供需双弱基本面，涨幅回吐，但冬储及钢厂刚需托底，焦煤预计有企稳迹象。 【现货数据】 1 数据来源：钢联数据、冠通研究咨询部 【基本面跟踪】 500 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures contract declined with reduced trading volume, breaking below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, reaching a one-month low with no sign of a stop in the decline [1][6]. - Currently, the supply is relatively stable, and the demand shows strong resilience despite a decline due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level, mainly due to the high pressure on social inventory, and the inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations and the inventory depletion speed after the Spring Festival [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: On Friday, the open interest of the hot-rolled coil futures main contract decreased by 10,036 lots, with a trading volume of 276,669 lots, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,250 yuan, and the high was 3,270 yuan. The daily moving averages showed a short-term decline below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, closing at 3,251 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan or 0.43% [1]. - Spot Price: The hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -1 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of February 5, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 0.05 million tons to 3.0916 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1103 million tons. This week's output was at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival, with increased production enthusiasm [4]. - Demand: As of February 5, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 0.0587 million tons to 3.0554 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.0811 million tons. Mainly affected by the Spring Festival shutdown, the demand from downstream manufacturing industries declined, but the overall level was still at a relatively high level in recent years, showing certain resilience [4]. - Inventory: As of February 5, the total inventory increased by 0.0362 million tons to 3.592 million tons (the social inventory increased by 0.0212 million tons week-on-week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 0.015 million tons). The pressure was concentrated on social inventory, and the steel mill inventory was controllable. The steel mill inventory pressure was extremely low, and the social inventory increased significantly, reflecting the inventory backlog in the circulation link and the low willingness of downstream buyers to purchase [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - Bearish Factors: Steel mill复产 exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]. Short-Term View Summary - The hot-rolled coil futures contract declined with reduced trading volume today, breaking below the short-term 5-day, medium-term 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, reaching a one-month low with no sign of a stop in the decline. Fundamentally, the current supply is relatively stable, and the demand shows strong resilience despite a decline mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level, mainly due to the high pressure on social inventory, and the inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations and the inventory depletion speed after the Spring Festival [6].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 期货方面： PP2605合约减仓震荡运行，最低价6607元/吨，最高价6708元/吨，最终收盘于6691元/吨， 在20日均线上方，跌幅0.48%。持仓量减少14114手至483821手。 现货方面： PP各地区现货价格多数下跌。拉丝报6310-6830元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 发布日期：2026年2月6日 【行情分析】 截至2月6日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落2.24个百分点至49.84%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下降5.30个百分点至36.74%，塑编订单环比继续下降，略低于去年 同期。2月6日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在80%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生 产比例下降至26.5%左右。1月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端， 伊朗地缘局势反复，美国降低对印度加征的关税，印度炼厂或将增加中东和美洲地区的原油采购， 原油价格反弹。近期检修装置略有减少。下游BOPP膜价格继续反弹，下游塑编开工率下降，其新增 订单有限，临近春 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The current oil market is in a state of oversupply, but due to the impact of winter storms, U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and overall oil product inventories continue to decline. The Iranian nuclear negotiations have uncertain geopolitical risks, and the situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not made substantial progress. The restoration of production at the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan has been delayed. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Winter is the off-season for crude oil demand, but due to the impact of winter storms, EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories have decreased more than expected, with overall oil product inventories continuing to decline. However, global floating crude oil storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a state of oversupply. The latest EIA monthly report in January has raised the surplus range for 2026. Saudi Aramco has announced a 30 - cent per barrel price cut for Arabian light crude oil shipped to Asia in March 2025. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The Iranian nuclear negotiations have uncertain geopolitical risks, and Trump has announced a reduction in "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. India may increase its crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The Russia-Ukraine talks in the UAE have not made substantial progress. The Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan will resume half of its production capacity by February 7. The repeated Iranian geopolitical situation has caused sharp fluctuations in oil prices. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2603 contract, rose 0.37% to 465.4 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 454.4 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 470.0 yuan per ton, and an open interest decrease of 5297 to 16308 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars per barrel to 52.21 dollars per barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA has raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. On the evening of February 4, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending January 30, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. Supply - side - The latest OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. Due to the impact of winter storms, U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels per day to 13.215 million barrels per day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products has increased to 20.802 million barrels per day, a 2.54% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, gasoline weekly production decreased by 6.90% to 8.153 million barrels per day, and diesel weekly production increased by 5.92% to 4.31 million barrels per day [4].

天然橡胶日报：偏空震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 一、行情表现 2 月 6 日，天然橡胶主力合约收盘价 16080 元/吨，当日涨跌幅-0.83%。 今日天然橡胶市场涨跌互相，上海市场 24 年 SCRWF 主流货源意向成交价格 为 15900-15950 元/吨，较前一交易日持稳；越南 3L 混合胶主流货源意向成交价 格参考 16500-16550 元/吨，较前一交易日下跌 25 元/吨 日内现货市场来看，期货盘面震荡走势，当前下游实际询盘气氛一般，市场 成交表现偏淡，现货价格多稳中窄调。产区市场来看，沪胶重心震荡，现货价格 稳定；市场交投转淡，价格波动不大。 二、供给方面 上周天然橡胶供应呈现国内外逐渐下滑趋势。云南、海南产区全面停割；海 外方面，泰国、越南天气正常，泰国北部停割、泰国东北部以及越南产区接近割 胶季尾声，泰国南部正值旺产季。 全球天然橡胶供应将逐步由旺季转为淡季，后期供应压力或逐步减弱，但国 内 1 月下旬仍集中到港，国内海南产区停割，工厂收胶抢购热度有限，后期全球 供应压力减缓，叠加上游工厂的原料备库，预计原料价格将延续坚挺格局，橡胶 成本端支撑偏强。按照 ANRPC 天然 ...