【冠通研究】 低价补货，刚需采购为主 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 29 日 【策略分析】 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水 130 元/吨，华南现货升贴水 65 元/吨。2025 年 5 月 28 日，LME 官方价 9633 美元/吨，现货升贴水 49 美元/吨。 【供给端】 截至 5 月 23 日最新数据显示，现货粗炼费（TC）-44.30 美元/干吨，现货 精炼费（RC）-4.44 美分/磅。 沪铜今日低开高走震荡翻红。安托法加斯塔本周向中国冶炼厂报出-15 美元/吨的铜 精矿 TC/RC，显现中长期铜矿端供应宽松的预期。美元指数本周低位反弹，铜价上涨趋 势受压制。供给方面，截止 5 月 23 日，我国现货粗炼费(TC)-44.3 美元/干吨，RC 费用- 4.44 美分/磅，TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但下滑幅度明显放缓，冶炼厂暂时没有大幅检 修，主要系长协订单及副产品弥补亏损，但利润负值状态下，市场偏紧预期依然存在。4 月精炼铜(电解铜)产量 125.4 万吨，同比增加 9%;进口精炼铜数量 30.02 万吨，同比降 低 11.97%，国内精炼铜产量维持高位，同比增速大幅增加，位于历年同期高位水平 ...

【冠通研究】 PVC：震荡下行 逢高做空 上游电石价格主流地区下跌25-50元/吨后稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少1.51个百分点 至76.19%，PVC开工率继续减少，仍处于近年同期中性偏高水平。五一节后，PVC下游开工有所回升， 但同比往年仍偏低，采购较为谨慎。印度反倾销政策不利于国内PVC的出口，印度将BIS政策再次延 期六个月至2025年6月24日执行，中国台湾台塑5月份报价稳定，出口高价成交受阻，但低价出口交 付较好。另外，印度即将迎来雨季或限制未来中国PVC出口。上周社会库存继续下降，只是目前仍偏 高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-4月份，房地产数据略有改善，只是同比仍是负数，且新开工与竣 工面积同比降幅仍较大，竣工面积同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比小幅 回升，但仍是历年同期偏低水平，关注房地产利好政策能否提振商品房销售。春检过半，据统计春 检规模不及去年同期，需求未实质性改善之前PVC压力较大。随着宏观情绪消化，下游观望增加，上 游电石价格持续下跌，PVC偏弱震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PVC2509合约增仓震荡下行，最低价4743元/吨，最高价4798元 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 28 日 热点品种 沪铜： 沪铜今日高开低走震荡收跌。国家统计局数据显示，1—4 月份，全国规模以上工 业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿元，同比增长1.4%。其中，汽车制造业下降5.1%。 美联储对于利率稳定的预期有所加强，美元指数小幅反弹压制铜价。刚果大型铜 矿（卡库拉）因地震停产，并撤回 2025 年产量指引，加深矿端供应趋紧预期。 供给方面，截止 5 月 23 日，我国现货粗炼费(TC)-44.3 美元/干吨，RC 费用-4.44 美分/磅，TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但下滑幅度明显放缓，冶炼厂暂时没有大幅 检修，主要系长协订单及副产品弥补亏损，但利润负值状态下，市场偏紧预期依 然存在。4 月精炼铜(电解铜)产量 125.4 万吨，同比增加 9%;进口精炼铜数量 30.02 万吨，同比降低 11.97%，国内精炼铜产量维持高位，同比增速大幅增加， ...

早盘速递 2025/5/28 热点资讯 1. 国家统计局数据显示，1—4月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿元，同比增长1.4%。其中，汽车制造业下 降5.1%，石油和天然气开采业下降6.9%，煤炭开采和洗选业下降48.9%，石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业同比增亏，黑色金属冶炼 和压延加工业同比由亏转盈。 2. 据第一财经，多家车企近日陆续发布降价促销活动引发市场关注。走访多家供应商发现，随着中国汽车市场打起"价格战 "，上游企业利润空间持续压缩至10%，账期也长达120天。业内人士认为"价格战"可能导致供应商陷入亏损和汽车质量安全 问题。 3. 美国消费者对经济的看法在5月有所改善。世界大型企业联合会发布数据显示，5月美国消费者信心指数从4月的85.7大幅上 升至98，高于所有经济学家预期。 4. 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文称，对欧盟加快贸易谈判进程感到鼓舞。知情人士此前透露，欧盟正寻求加快与美国的贸易 谈判，重点放在关键的行业以及关税和非关税壁垒上。另外，白宫经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，部分国家的关税可能降至10% 或更低，接近完成的包括与印度之间的贸易协议。 板块表现 重点关注 橡胶、烧碱、 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/28 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.27%报 3299.70 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.77%报 33.39 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价走弱，美油主力合约收跌 0.75%，报 61.07 美元/桶；布伦特原油主 力合约跌 0.56%，报 63.76 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘涨跌不一，LME 期铝涨 0.79%报 2483.00 美元/吨，LME 期 锌涨 0.28%报 2709.00 美元/吨，LME 期铅跌 0.13%报 1988.50 美元/吨，LME 期 铜跌 0.15%报 9596.00 美元/吨。 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，大豆期货涨 0.17%报 1062.00 美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌 0.27%报 458.25 美分/蒲式耳，小麦 期货跌 2.58%报 528.50 美分/蒲式耳。 5. 国内期货主力合约夜盘跌多涨少。橡胶跌超 2%，20 ...

3. 据一财报道，进入二季度以来，各地拟用专项债"收地"的步伐明显加快。据惠誉、中指院等机构的数据统计，截至目 前，全国各地公示拟使用专项债收回收购存量闲置土地的数量接近3000宗，总面积超1.33亿平方米，总金额超3500亿元 4. 据上海航运交易所数据，截至2025年5月26日，上海出口集装箱结算运价指数（欧洲航线）报1247.05点，与上期相比跌 1.4% 5. 欧盟计划加快与美国的贸易谈判。欧盟委员会发言人周一表示："谈判现在有了新的动力，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩周日 与特朗普进行了电话交谈，他们同意加快贸易谈判进程，并保持密切联系。"通话之后，特朗普将原定对欧盟征收50%关税的 截止日期推迟了一个多月，至7月9日，以进行进一步的谈判。重点关注 纸浆、焦炭、玻璃、黄金、沪金 夜盘表现 板块表现 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 Fetching... Fetching... Fetching... Fetching... Fetching... Fetching... Fetching... Fetching... Fetching... Fetch ...

【冠通研究】 盘面窄幅震荡，上下空间均有限 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 27 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日低开高走，日内小幅翻红，尾盘回落收跌。上游工厂报价稳中下 调，部分工厂开启降价收单，成交量有所好转，目前大颗粒行情优于小颗粒。 基本面来看，供应端，按隆众口径日产为 20.47 万吨，同比偏高 3.16 万吨。预 计后期煤制装置将有减产，6 月供应压力或小幅释放。需求端，农需备肥谨 慎，主交割地区山东、河南暂时未集中备肥，东北地区目前玉米追肥备肥中。 目前华北地区小麦收成已接近三成，玉米用肥在即，复合肥工厂终端走货好 转，近期开工率或有提升，但目前成品库存高位，预计尿素需求支撑持续性有 限，后续下月初开工率将逐渐进一步下调。尿素厂内库存上周累库，预计夏季 肥扫尾阶段，库存有机会进一步去化。综合来看，综合来看，尿素供给端变动 不明显，尿素出口消息带来的盘面涨幅回吐大半，主要系内需转弱影响，目前 看供需依然宽松，盘面弱势为主，目前即将迎来玉米肥用肥阶段，盘面有机会 小幅反弹，但空间较为有限。关注后续集港带来的价格波动及超预期检修状 况。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1813 元/吨低开 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 1 【冠通研究】 下游承接力度不足，盘面承压 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 27 日 【策略分析】 沪铜今日低开低走震荡收跌。刚果大型铜矿（卡库拉）因地震停产，并撤回 2025 年 产量指引，加深矿端供应趋紧预期。供给方面，截止 5 月 23 日，我国现货粗炼费(TC)- 44.3 美元/干吨，RC 费用-4.44 美分/磅，TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但下滑幅度明显放 缓，冶炼厂暂时没有大幅检修，主要系长协订单及副产品弥补亏损，但利润负值状态 下，市场偏紧预期依然存在。4 月精炼铜(电解铜)产量 125.4 万吨，同比增加 9%;进口精 炼铜数量 30.02 万吨，同比降低 11.97%，国内精炼铜产量维持高位，同比增速大幅增 加，位于历年同期高位水平，目前市场对铜供应紧张预期尚未兑现，实质供应尚未减 弱。需求方面，下游对高价铜持谨慎态度，对价格接受度转弱，需求目前环比减弱，进 入消费淡季，下游补库力度偏弱势。除地产板块外,终端需求表现依然向好，截至 4 月 底，全国累计发电装机容 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/27 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.7%报 3342.2 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 0.11%报 33.645 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价小幅波动，美油主力合约持平，报 61.53 美元/桶。布油主力合约 涨 0.05%，报 64.81 美元/桶。 3. 国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收跌 0.11%报 455.9 元/桶。贵金属方面， 沪金收跌 0.23%报 779.72 元/克，沪银涨 0.29%报 8294 元/千克。纸浆跌超 2%， 甲醇、苯乙烯（EB）、纯碱跌近 2%，PX、短纤、PTA、乙二醇（EG）、聚氯乙 烯（PVC）、焦炭跌超 1%；涨幅方面，20 号胶涨超 1%。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 财政部有关负责同志表示，去年四季度以来，中国政府实施一揽子宏观经济 调控政策，经济指标回升向好，市场预期和信心稳定，债务中长期可持续性增 强，穆迪作出维持中国主权信用评级稳定的决定，是对中国经济向好前景的正 面反 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The crude oil market faces downward pressure due to increased supply from OPEC+ and other producers, potential signing of the Iran nuclear deal, and uncertain demand affected by global trade tensions [3]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue weakening, with the futures price hitting a new low and the spot price likely to decline further, accompanied by range - bound fluctuations [6]. - The copper market is expected to experience high - level oscillations, with multiple factors such as uncertain macro - environment, supply - demand dynamics, and dollar index influencing the price [12]. - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [13]. - The PP market is expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as OPEC+ production increase, supply - demand dynamics, and trade negotiations [14]. - The plastic market is expected to oscillate in the near term, with factors like new production capacity,检修 devices, and trade negotiations influencing it [16]. - The PVC market is under pressure and will enter a period of oscillatory consolidation, affected by factors such as supply - demand, export policies, and real - estate data [17]. - The soybean oil market is expected to be weakly volatile in the second half of the second quarter, with supply pressure and market sentiment influencing the price [19]. - The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a weakly oscillatory trend, with supply - demand dynamics and weather conditions affecting the price [20][22]. - The hot - rolled coil market will continue to face supply - demand contradictions and may maintain bottom - level oscillations if external tariffs are implemented and domestic demand does not improve [23]. - The rebar market will continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to continue weak oscillations due to cost and demand factors [25]. - The urea market is currently in a weak state, with supply - demand dynamics and potential export factors influencing the price, and may experience a small - scale rebound after agricultural demand picks up [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ is implementing a step - by - step production increase plan, and the US crude production is near a historical high. Other non - OPEC+ producers are also releasing production capacity, and the signing of the Iran nuclear deal may further increase supply [3]. - Demand: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the pessimistic expectation of its impact on the economy has not been fully reversed. The trade negotiation between the US and the EU is difficult [3]. - Outlook: There is still downward pressure on crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and the signing of the Iran nuclear deal [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Some upstream lithium - extraction enterprises are undergoing maintenance and production cuts, but the supply pressure remains due to previous over - supply [6]. - Demand: The downstream procurement intention is weak, but there is a slight improvement in overall demand [6]. - Outlook: The supply - demand contradiction is not alleviated, and the price is expected to continue to weaken [6]. Copper - Supply: The domestic refined copper production is at a high level, and the supply tension expected by the market has not materialized [12]. - Demand: The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand is currently weakening [12]. - Outlook: The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level due to multiple factors [12]. Asphalt - Supply: The asphalt production rate has declined, but the expected production in May is increasing [13]. - Demand: The downstream demand is still to be restored, affected by factors such as funds and weather [13]. - Outlook: The asphalt market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [13]. PP - Supply: New production capacity is put into operation, and there are more maintenance devices, but the overall supply is still affected by multiple factors [14]. - Demand: The downstream recovery is slow, and the new orders are limited [14]. - Outlook: The PP market is expected to oscillate [14]. Plastic - Supply: New production capacity is put into operation, and there are new maintenance devices, and the supply is affected by multiple factors [16]. - Demand: The downstream demand is general, and the new orders are slow to follow up [16]. - Outlook: The plastic market is expected to oscillate in the near term [16]. PVC - Supply: The PVC production rate is decreasing but still at a relatively high level [17]. - Demand: The downstream demand is still low compared to previous years, and the export is affected by policies [17]. - Outlook: The PVC market is under pressure and will enter a period of oscillatory consolidation [17]. Soybean Oil - Supply: The expected arrival of soybeans in May and June is large, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to be relatively loose [19]. - Demand: The downstream market is mainly replenishing based on rigid demand, and the inventory is expected to increase [19]. - Outlook: The soybean oil market is expected to be weakly volatile in the second half of the second quarter [19]. Soybean Meal - Supply: The domestic soybean crushing volume is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient [20]. - Demand: The terminal demand for large - scale replenishment is limited, and the inventory is expected to increase [20][22]. - Outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a weakly oscillatory trend [20][22]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply: The supply is still at a high level, and the marginal contraction is limited [23]. - Demand: Both domestic and foreign demand are under pressure, and the inventory removal is slow [23]. - Outlook: The hot - rolled coil market will continue to face supply - demand contradictions and may maintain bottom - level oscillations [23]. Rebar - Supply: The supply is still at a high level, with short - term slight increase [25]. - Demand: The demand is seasonally weakening, and the inventory removal is slow [25]. - Outlook: The rebar market will continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to continue weak oscillations [25]. Urea - Supply: The production in May is expected to be higher than previous years, and the supply pressure may be slightly relieved in June [26]. - Demand: The agricultural demand is cautious, and the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is weakening [26]. - Outlook: The urea market is currently weak, and may experience a small - scale rebound after agricultural demand picks up [26].