【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤春节假期持仓报告：关注上下游复产进程 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 12 日 【行情分析】 年前焦煤进入弱势震荡区间，基本面呈现供需双减格局，节前难有趋势性 行情，随着假期的临近，矿山多发减产停产，截至目前，矿山开工将至 81.39%，且假期期间，蒙煤通关受限，国内焦煤供应收缩，节前印尼暂停出口 的传闻引爆市场，但目前来看，印尼立即暂停出口的消息存在较大的不确定 性，后续国内供应还需等待节后矿山复产的节奏。下游需求端处于季节性淡 季，钢厂焦企维持低位库存刚需补库的状况维持生产节奏，冬储备货同样接近 尾声，节前焦企提涨一轮已落地，焦企利润修复，警惕节后需求复苏不及预期 后，是否有提降概率，目前焦煤维持宽松格局，节后钢厂的复产节奏及矿山复 产进程或影响焦煤价格走势，假期内外盘消息扰动易造成节后开盘的大幅波 动，建议空仓观望为主。 【现货数据】 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1270 元/吨，较上个交易日持平， 蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1018 元/吨，较上个交易日+8 元/吨。 基差方面：主力合约期货收盘价 1120 元/吨，山西介休基差 150 元/吨，较 上个交易日+3. ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青春节假期持仓报告：供需双弱，易受原油波动影响 发布日期：2026年2月12日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.0个百分点至24.5%，较去年同期高了0.1个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨， 减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。上周，临近春节，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌， 其中道路沥青开工环比下跌5个百分点至9%。上周，山东地区在价格上涨后终端需求疲软，其出货量 减少较多，全国出货量环比减少1.33%至21.16万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比小幅下 降，处于近年来同期的最低位。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生 产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多中国报价委内瑞拉原油贴水5美元/桶，这比2025年12月份的贴 水13美元/桶大幅缩小，市场消息称Reliance采购约200万桶委油、4月到港，对布伦特折价约-6.50美 元/桶，国内炼厂获得委内瑞拉原油的可能性增加，但预计还是较美国介入前大幅下降，关注国内炼 厂原料短缺情况。本周齐鲁石化、 ...

PVC春节假期持仓报告：弱现实，强预期 发布日期：2026年2月12日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.33个百分点至79.26%，PVC开工 率继续小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。临近春节，PVC下游开工率环比下降3.33个百分点，下游 主动备货意愿偏低。出口方面，价格上涨后，国内出口签单环比回落，但之前的抢出口使得企业销 售压力不大。中国台湾台塑PVC出口3月份船货离岸价环比2月上调40美元/吨。上周社会库存继续增 加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施 工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度 成交面积环比回落，仍处于近年同期偏低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生 产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，本周预计无新增检修装置，PVC开工率变化不大，期货 仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，临近春节假期，下游进入放假模式进一步增加，逐渐 进入假期休整，现货成交清淡，社会库存继续增加。不过生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发攻 关等关键环 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/2/12 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.53%报 5107.80 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 4.60%报 84.08 美元/盎司。 2. 美油主力合约收涨 1.45%，报 64.89 美元/桶；布油主力合约涨 1.15%，报 6 ...

1.国家统计局公布数据显示，1月份，我国CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，核心CPI同比上涨0.8%；PPI环比上涨0.4%，连续 4个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点，同比则下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百分点。此次发布的CPI和PPI数据以2025 年为基期，为本次基期轮换后的首次数据发布。国家统计局指出，本次基期轮换对CPI和PPI各月同比指数的影响平均约为0.06 和0.08个百分点，总体较小。 早盘速递 2026/2/12 热点资讯 2.美国1月季调后非农就业人口增加13万人，远超市场预期的7万人，前值小幅下修至4.8万人。失业率录得4.3%，创2025年8月 以来新低；时薪环比增长0.4%，超预期。交易员将美联储降息押注从6月推迟至7月。 3.中国汽车工业协会发布数据显示，1月份，我国汽车产销分别完成245万辆和234.6万辆，同比分别增长0.01%、下降3.2%。其 中，新能源汽车产销分别完成104.1万辆和94.5万辆，同比分别增长2.5%和0.1%。新能源汽车出口保持高速增长，出口30.2万 辆，同比增长1倍。 4.美国总统特朗普在白宫与到访的以色列总理内塔尼亚胡举行闭门会 ...

尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 | | | | | | 2026/2/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | | 本期 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 一周走势 | | 河北 | | 1800 | 1800 | 0 | | | 河南 | | 1800 | 1800 | 0 | | | 山东 | | 1800 | 1800 | 0 | | | 主流地区市场价 | 山西 | 1680 | 1680 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 江苏 | 1810 | 1810 | 0 | | | 安徽 | | 1810 | 1810 | 0 | | | 黑龙江 | | 1780 | 1780 | 0 | | | 内蒙古 | | 1810 | 1810 | 0 | | | 河北东光 | | 1790 | 1790 | 0 | | | 工厂价 | 山东华鲁 | 1790 | 1790 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 江苏灵谷 | 1830 | 1830 | 0 | | | 安徽昊源 | | 1770 | 1770 | 0 | | | 山东05基差 | | 2 | 4 | - ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：节前收单基本完成 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 11 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开高走，震荡上涨。大部分工厂已收单完成，假期间现货价格 平稳运行为主。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1740-1780 元/吨。今日肥易通数据日产已达 21.5 万，假期内多数装置正常运 行为主，短期没有长期停产计划。本周期货市场情绪偏强，现货节前收单顺 畅，年后即将迎来小麦返青追肥旺季，工业需求边际减弱中，上周复合肥工厂 开工基本持平，节前继续备货生产，同时前期待发进行，工厂厂内库存小幅消 化，终端走货尚可，本周将迎来假期前最后一次开工数据，预计环比下降，本 周库存大幅去化，周度减少 9.12%，但进入假期物流不畅，预计下周小幅累 库。今日大宗商品情绪整体回暖，尿素盘面同样偏强，节前流动性减弱，窄幅 波动为主。 【期现行情】 基差方面：今日现货市场主流报价上涨，期货收盘价上涨；以河南地区为基 准，基差环比上个交易日走弱，5 月合约基差 3 元/吨（-12 元/吨）。 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1785 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，震荡上涨，最 终收于 1797 元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The plastics supply-demand pattern has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. With low upstream petrochemical inventories and the current basis having been repaired, plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to new plastics production capacity coming on stream recently, the operating rate being higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch film not yet starting, the L-PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 11th, the restart of overhauled units such as the new HDPE at Dushanzi Petrochemical led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 92%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week ending February 6th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points week-on-week to 33.73%. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventories for agricultural films continued to decline, reaching relatively low levels in recent years, and orders for packaging films also decreased. Petrochemical destocking in February was decent, and current petrochemical inventories are at relatively low levels in recent years. On the cost side, crude oil prices rebounded due to market concerns about a potential military conflict between the US and Iran. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026, and the plastics operating rate has slightly increased recently. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started yet, and the operating rates of agricultural and packaging films have decreased, with downstream operating rates expected to continue to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, closing at 6787 yuan/ton, up 0.55% and above the 60-day moving average. The持仓 volume decreased by 8697 lots to 503,917 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market partially declined, with price changes ranging from -100 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 11th, the restart of overhauled units such as the new HDPE at Dushanzi Petrochemical led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 92%, which is at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending February 6th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points week-on-week to 33.73%. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventories for agricultural films continued to decline, reaching relatively low levels in recent years, and orders for packaging films also decreased, with the overall downstream operating rate of PE showing a seasonal decline [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Wednesday was flat week-on-week at 460,000 tons, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Petrochemical destocking was decent, and current petrochemical inventories are at relatively low levels in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $69 per barrel. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained flat week-on-week at $695 per ton, and that in Southeast Asia remained flat week-on-week at $675 per ton [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡运行 今日沥青期货2604合约上涨0.51%至3373元/吨，5日均线上方，最低价在3324元/吨，最高价 3374元/吨，持仓量增加4115至16054手。 基差方面： 山东地区主流市场价维持在3210元/吨，沥青04合约基差下跌至-163元/吨，处于偏低水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 发布日期：2026年2月11日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.0个百分点至24.5%，较去年同期高了0.1个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨， 减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。上周，临近春节，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌， 其中道路沥青开工环比下跌5个百分点至9%。上周，山东地区在价格上涨后终端需求疲软，其出货量 减少较多，全国出货量环比减少1.33%至21.16万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比小幅下 降，处于近年来同期的最低位。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生 产和 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 11, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Carbonate lithium led the gains, while container shipping European routes led the losses. The capital flow varied among different contracts [5][6]. - Different futures products are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and geopolitical situations, and their prices are expected to move within a certain range in the short term [8][10][11]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on February 11, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Carbonate lithium rose over 9%, and沪镍 rose over 4%. Container shipping European routes fell over 1%, and coke, glass, and palm oil fell nearly 1%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.13%, IH rose 0.08%, IC rose 0.43%, and IM rose 0.01%. Among bond futures, TS remained flat, TF rose 0.05%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.05%. In terms of capital flow, IM 2603,沪金 2604, and carbonate lithium 2605 had capital inflows, while ten - year bond 2603, 30 - year bond 2603, and CSI 300 2603 had capital outflows [5][6]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Futures - **沪铜**: It opened low and closed high, with strong intraday fluctuations. In January, production was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and in February, it is expected to return to normal. The expected production in February decreased by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a 3.04% decline, but increased by 8.06% year - on - year. The demand decreased marginally during the holiday. The copper price is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the spot trading was light before the holiday [8]. - **Carbonate lithium**: It opened high and closed high, rising over 9%. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium increased. The supply in February will decrease. The export of Chilean carbonate lithium in January increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen, and the inventory is moving downstream. The retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The demand is in the off - season, but the US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. The global crude oil floating storage is high, and the supply is in surplus. The price of Arabian light crude oil to Asia was lowered. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The geopolitical situation in Iran is uncertain, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased slightly week - on - week, and the expected production in February decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream industry's production rate mostly declined, and the national shipment volume decreased. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil is restricted, and the production and cost of domestic asphalt are affected. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [13][15]. - **PP**: The downstream production rate of PP decreased week - on - week, and the enterprise production rate increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years. The cost is affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **Plastic**: The plastic production rate increased, and the downstream production rate decreased. New production capacity was put into operation in January. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level. The cost is affected by the Middle East situation. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC production rate increased slightly, and the downstream production rate decreased. The export order decreased after the price increase, and the social inventory increased. The real estate market is still in adjustment. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Coking coal**: It opened low and closed high, with a late - session decline. The supply of coking coal shrank significantly before the Spring Festival, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal will be restricted during the holiday. The downstream inventory is still increasing, but the replenishment is approaching the end. It is expected to be weak and fluctuate before the holiday [21]. - **Urea**: It opened low and closed high, rising in a volatile manner. Most factories have completed order collection, and the spot price will be stable during the holiday. The daily production has reached 215,000 tons. The futures market sentiment is strong, and the inventory decreased significantly this week but is expected to increase slightly next week. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range before the holiday [22].