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冠通期货资讯早间报-20250801
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 01:58
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/08/01 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1、国内商品期货普遍收跌,焦煤期货主力合约跌停,玻璃跌超 8%,多晶硅跌 近 8%,工业硅、硅铁、纯碱跌超 6%,焦炭、碳酸锂、锰硅、螺纹钢、氧化铝跌 超 4%。 2、国际贵金属期货普遍收跌,COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.31%报 3342.30 美元/盎司, 7 月累计上涨 1.05%;COMEX 白银期货跌 2.51%报 36.79 美元/盎司,7 月累计上 涨 1.71%。美联储维持利率不变但内部现分歧,鲍威尔鹰派表态降低 9 月降息预 期。特朗普调整多国贸易政策加剧市场不确定性,欧洲经济数据喜忧参半。 3、美国库存大增拖累油价下跌,美油主力合约收跌 0.91%,报 69.36 美元/桶, 7 月累计上涨 6.53%;布伦特原油主力合约跌 0.86%,报 71.85 美元/桶,7 月累 计上涨 7.46%。国际油价下跌主要受美国原油库存意外大增影响。美国能源信 息署数据显示上周商业原油库存增加769.8万桶,远超预期的减少128.8万桶, ...
冠通每日交易策略-20250731
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 10:25
期市综述 地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期:2025 年 7 月 31 日 热点品种 截止 7 月 31 盘,国内期货主力合约大面积飘绿。SC 原油涨超 1%;跌幅方面,玻 璃跌超 8%,焦煤、多晶硅跌超 7%,硅铁、纯碱、工业硅跌超 6%,焦炭、碳酸锂、 锰硅、螺纹钢、集运欧线、氧化铝跌超 4%。沪深 300 股指期货(IF)主力合约跌 1.75%,上证 50 股指期货(IH)主力合约跌 1.44%,中证 500 股指期货(IC)主 力合约跌 1.38%,中证 1000 股指期货(IM)主力合约跌 0.88%。2 年期国债期货 (TS)主力合约涨 0.01%,5 年期国债期货(TF)主力合约涨 0.08%,10 年期国 债期货(T)主力合约涨 0.17%,30 年期国债期货(TL)主力合约涨 0.57%。 资金流向截至 07 月 31 日 15:17,国内期货主力合约资金流入方面,沪金 2510 流入 4.32 亿,玻璃 2509 流入 3.52 亿,纯碱 2509 流入 2.95 亿;资金流出方 ...
期现共振下挫
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 10:20
制作日期:2025 年 7 月 31 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日低开低走震荡下行,尾盘收跌 2%。市场成交活跃度不高,现货价 格稳中下降,工厂暂时待发充足,现货报价暂时无太大下行空间。基本面来 看,供应端维稳,今日新疆塔石化临时检修,大约进行一年左右,河南有装置 有检修计划,其他地区基本正常。需求端,主交割区农业需求追肥结束,下游 承接以工业拿货为主,三聚氰胺本期开工负荷下行,正值终端淡季,天气高温 多雨限制户外作业。复合肥工厂开工率继续攀升,且预计本月将持续上行,秋 季肥生产期间,对尿素增量有限,因其以高磷复合肥为主,内需目前刚需为 主,无拉涨动能。近期宏观情绪扰动多,重大会议后市场情绪有降温,大宗商 品普遍收跌,尿素方面出口带来的需求增加目前在盘面基本兑现完成,后续配 额不变的情况下影响相对较小,市场情绪缓和后,盘面震荡为主,目前主力临 近交割月,9-1 价差已至历史低点。 【期现行情】 期货方面:尿素主力 2509 合约 1739 吨低开低走,最终收于 1714 元/吨,收 成一根阴线,涨跌-2.00%,持仓量 141557 手(-5600 手)。前二十名主力持仓席 位来看,多头-529 手,空头-41 ...
铜策略:铜关税征收范围缩窄
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 10:20
【冠通研究】 铜关税征收范围缩窄 制作日期:2025 年 7 月 31 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面低开低走震荡下行,特朗普政府于 7 月 31 日宣布,自 8 月 1 日起全面对进 口的半成品铜产品及铜材料密集型制成品征收 50%的进口关税。该关税政策明确排除了 铜产业链上游的原材料,包括铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜、阳极铜以及铜废料。征收 范围远低于市场预期,纽约铜大幅下挫。国内基本面来看,TC/RC 费用依然处于负值, 但已经止跌回稳,冶炼厂暂时没有大幅检修,目前冶炼厂仍能依靠硫酸等副产品弥补亏 损,且冶炼厂大多有原料端储备,故目前生产积极性尚可,集中检修季预计在三季度或 原料库存大幅去化之后。铜半成品后续被征收关税,可能将影响出口需求。综合来看, 铜关税征收范围超预期,盘面回吐前期的涨幅,后续铜或回归基本面交易逻辑,行情偏 空,短期关注 78000 元/吨附近支撑位置,目前中美关税会谈乐观,但后续依然有不确定 预期,制约上行空间。 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源:同花顺期货通(日线图表) 1 【期现行情】 2 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨 ...
冠通期货2025年7月PMI数据
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:13
2025年7月PMI数据 发布日期 2025/7/31 国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会7月31日发布2025年7月中国采购经理指数运行情况。 数据显示,7月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.3%,比上月下降0.4个百分点,制造业景气水平有所回落。从企业规模看,大型企业PMI为50.3%,比上月下降0.9个百分点,高于临界点;中型企业PMI为 49.5%,比上月上升0.9个百分点,低于临界点;小型企业PMI为46.4%,比上月下降0.9个百分点,低于临界点。从分类指数看,在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中,生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点, 新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点。生产指数为50.5%,比上月下降0.5个百分点,仍高于临界点,表明制造业生产延续扩张。新订单指数为49.4%,比上月下降0.8个百分点,表明制造业市 场需求有所放缓。原材料库存指数为47.7%,比上月下降0.3个百分点,表明制造业主要原材料库存量继续减少。从业人员指数为48.0%,比上月上升0.1个百分点,表明制造业企业用工景气度略有回升。供应商配 送时间指数为50.3%,比上月上升0.1个百 ...
冠通期货早盘速递-20250731
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:00
早盘速递 2025/7/31 热点资讯 第 2 页,共 3 页 免责声明: 股市风险偏好 主要大宗商品走势 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.00 600.00 650.00 700.00 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 波罗的海干散货指数(BDI) CRB现货指数:综合:右轴 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 伦敦现货黄金:以美元计价 伦敦现货白银:以美元计价:右轴 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 期货官方价:LME3个月铜 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 金油比 铜金比:右轴 -0.015 -0.010 -0.005 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 ...
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250731
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 00:51
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China is to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and promote the construction of a unified national market [4]. - The global financial market shows complex fluctuations, affected by factors such as geopolitical tensions, supply - demand changes, and policy adjustments [2][24][50]. - The U.S. government's tariff policies have a significant impact on the international trade and financial markets [7][15][32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures: Most domestic futures main contracts declined. Glass and coking coal dropped over 4%, soda ash fell over 3%, and asphalt rose nearly 1% [2]. - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures dropped 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.90% to $37.175 per ounce [2]. - Oil prices: Geopolitical tensions and supply tightening pushed up oil prices. U.S. crude oil main contract rose 1.57% to $70.30 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract rose 1.49% to $72.75 per barrel [2]. - London base metals: Most London base metals declined, including LME nickel, lead, and tin [2]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - China's policy: The Politburo meeting emphasized risk prevention, policy implementation, and market reform. The Central Committee also held a symposium with non - Communist Party personages to promote economic development [4]. - Sino - U.S. economic and trade relations: The two sides held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, and China hopes for the U.S. to work together to maintain stable economic and trade relations [4]. - Market regulations: The Shanghai International Energy Exchange imposed regulatory measures on over - trading clients, and the Fed maintained interest rates with internal differences [5]. - Tariff policies: The U.S. imposed tariffs on Brazil, and the total tariff rate reached 50% [7]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Company operations: Hualu Hengsheng will conduct equipment maintenance, and the impact of Typhoon "Bamboo Grass" affected the shipping and wood processing industries in Jiangsu [10]. - Inventory changes: The refined oil inventory in the UAE's Fujairah Port decreased, while China's methanol port inventory increased. The U.S. commercial crude oil and strategic petroleum reserve inventories also changed [10][11]. Metal Futures - Production changes: A large recycled lead smelter in North China resumed production, and a primary lead smelter in Northeast China planned equipment maintenance [14]. - Market data: New energy vehicle retail sales in July showed certain changes, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits for some metal futures contracts [14]. - Tariff policies: The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products [15]. Black - Series Futures - Policy emphasis: The Politburo meeting emphasized safety production and energy supply [18]. - Price adjustments: The coking industry planned to raise coke prices, and relevant associations called for anti - "involution" competition [18]. - Company operations: Gansu Energy's coal mine resumed production, and relevant industrial alliances called for balancing industry interests [19]. Agricultural Product Futures - Policy guidance: The Politburo meeting emphasized stabilizing agricultural product prices [22]. - Production forecasts: Brazil's grain production is expected to increase, while India's sugar production decreased [22]. Financial Market Finance - Stock market performance: A - shares closed with mixed results, and the Hong Kong stock market declined. Some private equity products were restricted, and A - share margin trading balance reached a new high [24][26]. - Corporate news: Hon Hai and Dongyuan Electric established a strategic alliance, and New Oriental's financial report showed revenue growth but profit decline [26][27]. Industry - Interest rate data: The weighted average interest rate of new commercial personal housing loans in Q2 2025 was 3.09% [28]. - Trade policies: Lithium - ion battery raw materials and recycled steel raw materials can be freely imported [29]. - Industry meetings: The coking industry planned to raise prices, and relevant associations discussed capacity control and market regulation [29][31]. - Real estate market: The land market in July had a seasonal decline, but the average premium rate reached a new high [31]. Overseas - Tariff policies: The U.S. imposed tariffs on multiple countries' products, and reached a trade agreement with South Korea [32][33]. - Economic data: The U.S., eurozone, Australia, and other economies released relevant economic data, and the Canadian central bank maintained interest rates [35][37][39]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stock market: The three major U.S. stock indexes closed with mixed results, and the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut decreased [41]. - European stock market: European main stock indexes rose slightly [41]. - Corporate news: Some well - known companies such as META, Microsoft, and Qualcomm released financial reports, and some companies had major events such as acquisitions [43][45]. Commodities - Futures trading: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits for some metal futures contracts [48]. - Commodity prices: Precious metals, base metals, and oil prices showed different trends [50]. Bonds - Domestic bonds: Yields of domestic inter - bank major interest - rate bonds generally declined, and relevant departments regulated the bond market [51]. - U.S. bonds: The U.S. Treasury announced a refinancing plan, and U.S. bond yields rose [51][53]. Foreign Exchange - Exchange rates: The on - shore and offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar declined, and the U.S. dollar index rose [54]. Upcoming Events and Data Releases - Economic data: Multiple countries will release economic data such as PMI and retail sales [56]. - Meetings and events: There will be central bank meetings, press conferences, and important industry conferences [58]. - Earnings reports: Apple and Amazon will release earnings reports [58].
冠通每日交易策略-20250730
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 10:20
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the short - term supply is loose due to tariff implementation, but long - term supply is tight. The consumption structure may change, and the market is bearish in the short - term, with a focus on the 78,000 yuan/ton support level [7]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and cautious operation is recommended [8][9]. - For crude oil, prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ production policy on September 3rd [10]. - For asphalt, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [11][12]. - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate, with a recommendation of 09 - 01 reverse spread, due to factors such as trade, supply, and demand [13]. - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate, and 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended, considering trade, supply, and demand [15]. - For PVC, it is expected to decline with fluctuations, and 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended, affected by supply, demand, and inventory [16][17]. - For coking coal, it is expected to consolidate in the near term, with cautious trading [18]. - For urea, it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term, and the current market is a rebound [19][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of July 30th, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Polysilicon rose over 8%, while cotton, cotton yarn, and pulp fell over 1%. In terms of funds, CSI 1000 2509, SSE 500 2509, and polysilicon 2509 had capital inflows, while coking coal 2509, soda ash 2509, and glass 2509 had outflows [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis Copper - The supply is short - term loose and long - term tight. The consumption structure may change, and the market is bearish in the short - term [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price is slightly up. The supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement [8][9]. Crude Oil - Entering the seasonal peak season, prices are affected by factors such as OPEC+ production, trade agreements, and sanctions, and are expected to fluctuate [10]. Asphalt - Supply has decreased, demand is affected by funds and weather, and prices are expected to fluctuate [11][12]. PP - Downstream and enterprise operating rates are low, and it is expected to fluctuate due to trade and supply - demand factors [13]. Plastic - Operating rates are at a medium level, and it is expected to fluctuate considering trade, supply, and demand [15]. PVC - Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to decline with fluctuations [16][17]. Coking Coal - The price is slightly up, and it is expected to consolidate in the near term [18]. Urea - Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. It is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [19][20].
冠通期货早盘速递-20250730
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 10:15
Group 1: Hot News - China and the US agreed to extend the suspension of 24% of US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures for 90 days during the Sino-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm from July 28th to 29th [2] - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% and for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%, and also adjusted the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3% [2] - From January to June, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 40.745 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, and the total profit was 2.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%. The asset-liability ratio at the end of June was 65.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association clarified that some self-media news about the anti-involution work in the photovoltaic industry, especially in polysilicon, was seriously inconsistent with the actual situation [3] - US President Trump announced a 10 - day deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine and threatened economic punishment if Russia did not act [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, PVC, and PP [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.75%, precious metals 27.10%, oilseeds 11.77%, non - ferrous metals 2.78%, soft commodities 21.03%, coal - coking - steel - ore 15.29%, energy 3.31%, chemicals 11.90%, grains 1.14%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.92% [4] Group 3: Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% daily, 4.80% monthly, and 7.70% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell 0.30% daily [8] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.25% daily, 0.70% monthly, and 0.73% year - to - date [8] - In the commodity category, WTI crude oil rose 3.91% daily, 0.11% monthly, and fell 6.91% year - to - date; London spot gold rose 0.36% daily, 1.03% monthly, and 26.29% year - to - date [8] - In other categories, the US dollar index rose 0.26% daily, 0.93% monthly, and fell 9.05% year - to - date; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, fell 10.76% monthly, and 13.95% year - to - date [8]
冠通期货热点评论:政治局会议点评
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 09:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Politburo meeting set the tone for the second - half macro - policies and clarified the strategic claims and development ideas during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. Policies will continue to exert force and release policy effects. The strategy emphasizes expanding domestic demand, stabilizing growth, and promoting reform while maintaining stability and progress [2]. - The "anti - involution" market is expected to continue, with a more market - oriented implementation in the industry. The meeting's policies on optimizing market competition order and capacity governance are related to the "anti - involution" concept [3][4]. - The conclusion of the China - US Stockholm talks and the Politburo meeting have a short - term positive impact on the capital market, increasing risk appetite, benefiting risky assets such as stocks, slightly raising the RMB exchange rate, and helping commodity prices regain an upward trend. However, long - term caution is still needed [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Macro - policy Summary - **Total policies**: Fiscal policy will be more active, accelerating government bond issuance and use, boosting consumption, and promoting high - quality "two major" construction. Monetary policy will be moderately loose to lower financing costs. There is no need for ultra - expected policies for now, and a certain interest - rate cut expectation has formed in the market [3]. - **Structural policies**: Structural monetary policy tools focus on science and technology innovation, consumption boosting, small and micro enterprises, and stable foreign trade. Reform - promoting policies emphasize developing new - quality productivity through science and technology innovation, building a unified national market, and optimizing market competition order [3]. Impact on the "Anti - Involution" Market - Although the term "anti - involution" is not directly mentioned in the meeting announcement, relevant concepts such as optimizing market competition order and capacity governance are reflected. The "anti - involution" market is expected to further develop in the capital market, and its implementation in the industry will be more market - oriented [4]. China - US Talks and Market Impact - The 90 - day extension of the China - US talks is a "fragile cease - fire", reducing short - term market uncertainty. There are still fundamental differences between China and the US in many aspects. In the short term, it is beneficial to the capital market, but long - term risks remain [4][5].