【冠通期货研究报告】 现货成交氛围偏弱 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 31 日 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1627 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，日内冲高回落， 尾盘收跌，最终收于 1625 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅-0.43%，持仓量 264103 手（-6006 手）。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-1287 手，空头-1220 手。其中，东海期货净多单+628 手、方正中期净多单+6154 手；国泰君安净空单 -790 手，东证期货净空单-1753 手。 2025 年 10 月 31 日，尿素仓单数量 1455 张，环比上个交易日+1455 张，其 中安卅物流（四川农资 UR）+230 张，安阳万庄（四川农资 UR）+75 张，眉山邦 力达（四川农资 UR）+400 张，安徽中能+700 张。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面：现货成交 ...

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 86.89 84.94 1.95 开工率 76.350 76.350 0.000 产量 75.76 74.06 1.7 产线条数 226 226 0 重质产量 41.98 41 0.98 产量 112.8925 112.8925 0 轻质产量 33.78 33.06 0.72 厂内库存 170.2 170.21 -0.01 库存 6579 6661.3 -82.3 重质库存 88.64 93.45 -4.81 库存可用天数 28 28.3 -0.3 轻质库存 81.56 76.76 4.8 库存可用天数 14.11 14.11 0 产销率 100.01 99.78 0.23 天然气利润 -157.7 -120.56 -37.14 氨碱法毛利 -41.7 -32.4 -9.3 石油焦利润 1.09 48.23 -47.14 联产法毛利 -165 -161 -4 煤制气利润 63.45 113.23 -49.78 基差 -50 -50 0 基差 30 18 12 1-5价差 89 83 6 1-5价差 152 148 4 品种套利 纯碱-玻璃01价差 144 127 ...

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 14542.48 320.16 8849.86 291.62 2029.1 40.33 236.36 81.75 88.61 45.02 2.50 上期 14423.59 312.65 9079.19 296.46 2519.4 40.03 239.9 84.71 89.94 47.62 6.00 周变动 118.89 7.51 -229.33 -4.84 -490.30 0.30 -3.54 -2.96 -1.33 -2.6 -3.50 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 11239.43 1862.3 286.92 1153.83 本期 9310.21 5743.87 6017.4 上期 11094.96 1923.57 272.17 1132.89 上期 9240.62 5771.43 5935 周变动 144.47 -61.27 14.75 20.94 周变动 69.59 -27.56 82.4 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会10月31日发布2025年10月中国采购经理指数运行情况。 数据显示，10月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.9%、48.7%和47.1%，比上月下降1.1个、0.1个 和1.1个百分点，均低于临界点。从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数位于临界点，生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临界点。 生产指数为 49.7%，比上月下降2.2个百分点，表明制造业生产有所放缓。新订单指数为48.8%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所回落。原材料库存指数为47.3%，比上月下降1.2个百分点，表明制造业主要 原材料库存量继续减少。从业人员指数为48.3%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度小幅回落。供应商配送时间指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，位于临界点，表明制造业原材料供应商 交货时间与上月基本持平。 2025年10月PMI数据 发布日期 2025/10/31 10月份， ...

早盘速递 2025/10/31 热点资讯 1. 商务部新闻发言人表示，美方将暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年。美方暂停实施相关措施后，中方也 将相应暂停实施针对美方的反制措施一年。 2. 新型政策性金融工具落地满月，目前，国开新型政策性金融工具、进银新型政策性金融工具、农发新型政策性金融工具分 别投放2500亿元、1000亿元、1500亿元等总计5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已全部完成投放，有力支持了一批重点领域和薄弱 环节项目建设，预计将拉动项目总投资超7万亿元。 3. 《河南省钢铁产业提质升级行动计划》印发。《计划》提到，到2025年年底，全省钢铁行业能效基准水平以下产能完成技 术改造或淘汰退出。 4. 据SMM，10月30日下午，雅保锂辉石精矿拍卖活动结束：拍卖标的为Wodgina所出1.64万干吨5.21%锂辉石精矿，实际成交价 位为人民币含税价7058元/吨。 5. 印尼能源部官员Tri Winarno表示，印尼将向铜矿商Amman Mineral发放约40万吨铜精矿出口配额，有效期6个月。Amman因 其在西努沙登加拉省新建的冶炼厂已投产，此前获准出口至去年12月。 重点关注 铁 ...

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive overview of overnight futures market trends, important macro and industry news, and financial market developments as of October 31, 2025 [3] Overnight Futures Market Trends International Futures - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.94% at $4038.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.71% at $48.73 per ounce [4] - U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil futures fell, with U.S. crude down 0.31% at $60.29 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.45% at $64.03 per barrel [5] - London base metals all declined, with LME copper down 2.27% at $10930.00 per ton, LME tin down 1.28% at $35720.00 per ton, etc. [5] - U.S. agricultural products showed mixed performance, with soybeans up 1.14%, corn down 1.04%, etc. [6] Domestic Futures - As of 23:00, domestic futures contracts mostly fell, with low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) up over 1%, and ethylene glycol (EG), methanol, etc. down over 1% [8] Important News Macroeconomic News - China and the U.S. will suspend relevant export control measures for one year, and the U.S. will also suspend 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries [10] - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments have been fully invested, expected to drive project investment of over 7 trillion yuan [10] - The Fed may end balance sheet reduction on December 1 and become a net buyer next year [12] Energy and Chemical Futures - Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose, while middle distillates and light distillates inventories declined [16] - China's domestic soda ash inventory slightly decreased, and production increased [16] - China's national float glass inventory decreased, and inventory days decreased [16] Metal Futures - The auction of spodumene concentrate ended at a price of 7058 yuan per ton [19] - Goldman Sachs believes that copper prices may not sustain above $11,000 per ton, and the market will be slightly oversupplied in 2026 [21] - Indonesia will issue a 400,000-ton copper concentrate export quota to Amman Mineral [21] - Global gold demand in Q3 2025 reached a record high [21] Black Futures - Manganese ore production in Gabon decreased in Q3 2025 [27] - China's rebar production increased, and inventories decreased [27] - Henan Province issued an action plan for the steel industry [27] Agricultural Futures - As of October 27, Xinjiang's cotton picking progress was 82.8%, and it is expected to end around November 15 [29] - The physical inventory of red dates increased [30] - Canada's rapeseed crushing volume increased in September [32] - Brazil's sugarcane crushing and sugar production increased in October [32] Financial Markets Stocks - A-shares fell, with technology stocks leading the decline, and the lithium battery industry chain strengthened [34] - Hong Kong stocks declined, with southbound funds net buying HK$13.641 billion [34] - A-share margin trading balance exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, and semiconductor stocks were popular among margin traders [34] Industry - The weighted average interest rate of new commercial personal housing loans in Q3 2025 was 3.07% [37] - 21 troubled real estate companies have approved or completed debt restructuring, with a total debt resolution of about 1.2 trillion yuan [37] - The pilot area for pension wealth management products will be expanded to the whole country [37] Overseas Markets - The Fed may select a new chairman before Christmas [40] - The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% [40] - Eurozone Q3 GDP grew better than expected, but member states' performance was divergent [40] - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [40] International Stocks - U.S. stocks fell, with concerns about the economic outlook intensifying [42] - European stocks showed mixed performance, with different factors affecting each country's market [42] - Apple's Q4 revenue and earnings exceeded expectations, and it announced a cash dividend [43] - Amazon's Q3 earnings and revenue exceeded expectations, and it provided positive Q4 guidance [43] Commodities - The World Bank predicts that global commodity prices will decline in 2026 [44] - Hong Kong is accelerating the construction of an international gold trading center [45] - Global gold demand reached a record high in Q3 [45] Bonds - The interbank bond market was bullish, and Meta's bond issuance received strong demand [48] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the market lowered its interest rate cut expectations [49] Foreign Exchange - The central bank plans to develop the RMB foreign exchange derivatives market and promote RMB internationalization [50] - The onshore RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market opened high and closed low, with the spot market being lukewarm. The downstream domestic demand is sluggish, and there is low acceptance of high prices. The supply - demand situation is loose, and the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of winter storage [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures market opened high and closed low on October 30, 2025, with the main 2601 contract closing at 1627 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97%. The spot market is tepid, and the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton [1][2]. - The daily urea production has slightly rebounded recently, with some plants under inspection or shut - down, resulting in little production fluctuation. The cost side is strongly supported by the high coal price due to the serious losses of gas - based plants. The demand side shows that the operating load of compound fertilizer plants has increased, but the terminal sales are not as expected, and the inventory of finished products in the factory has increased [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1648 yuan/ton, closed at 1627 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.97% and a position of 489700 lots (-3447 lots). On October 30, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, the long position increased by 2773 lots, and the short position decreased by 731 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot market is not active, and the downstream has low acceptance of high prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton [1][4]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation remained stable, while the futures closing price declined. Based on Henan, the basis of the January contract was - 47 yuan/ton (+17 yuan/ton) [6]. - Supply: On October 30, 2025, the national daily urea production was 19.04 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 80.45% [7]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 155.43 tons, a decrease of 7.59 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.66%. The pre - sale order days were 7.53 days, an increase of 0.12 days from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.62% [11]. - Downstream: From October 24 to October 31, the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity was 31.04%, an increase of 3.33 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average utilization rate of Chinese melamine production capacity was 49.98%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from the previous week [13].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 30 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 10 月 30 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。焦煤、丁二烯橡胶、碳酸锂 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 12 月降息预期下降，铜价下挫 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 30 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，日内下挫。当地时间 10 月 30 日，国家主席习近平在釜山同美 国总统特朗普举行会晤，中美关系破冰，凌晨美联储如期降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利 率下调至 3.75%-4.00%，并宣布自 12 月 1 日起结束资产负债表缩减。供应端，印尼 Grasberg、智利 El Teniente、刚果金卡莫阿等接连发生事故或停产，导致全球铜精矿 供应短缺，国内铜矿库存连续去化，TC/RC 费用高企，提供铜价上行的主要驱动力，消 息人士表示，中国铜原料联合谈判小组决定暂不设定第四季度铜精矿处理费/精炼费指导 价。2025 年 11 月铜产量还有概率继续走低，目前有检修计划的冶炼厂 5 家，且阳极板 供应将持续紧张，铜冶炼原料端缺乏。下游受高价铜的抑制，购买积极性不佳，近日社 会铜库存温和增加，关注后续铜库存消化情况，是否有延续累库趋势。综合来看，美联 储降息会议召开后，市场对于 12 月降息的预期走弱，日盘开盘沪铜下挫，但基本面上矿 山品级下降及矿端的扰动依然上调了对于铜价的普遍预期，且 ...

早盘速递 2025/10/30 2. 今日凌晨，美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至3.75%-4.00%，为年内第二次降息；并宣布自12月1日起结束 资产负债表缩减。 3. 有报道称，中国在本收获季首次从美国购买大豆，这也是自9月份大豆自美国进口为零后中国首次购买。请问外交部对此有 何评论？外交部发言人郭嘉昆表示，中方在有关问题上的立场是一贯的，具体的问题建议向中方的主管部门进行询问。 4. 矿业巨头嘉能可周三报告称，今年前九个月的铜产量下降了17%，由于部分矿山的矿石品位下降，公司因此收紧了2025年的 产量前瞻指引，尽管第三季度的产量有所上升。 5. 消息人士表示，中国铜原料联合谈判小组（China smelter group）决定暂不设定第四季度铜精矿处理费/精炼费（TC/RC） 指导价。 板块表现 重点关注 铁矿石、螺纹钢、焦煤、沪铜、沪金 假期外盘表现 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 板块涨跌幅（%） -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% -1.50 ...