5.57% -6.41% 板块 名称 2月13日收盘价 2月16日涨跌幅 2月17日涨跌幅 2月18日涨跌幅 2月19日涨跌幅 2月20日涨跌幅 2月20日收盘价 假期间累计涨跌幅 NYMEX 原 油 NYMEX 天 然 气 COMEX 黄 金 COMEX 白 银 LME 铜 锌 镍 铝 锡 铅 铁 矿 石 CFR 中 国 (62% 铁 粉 ) 大 豆 玉 米 豆 油 豆 粕 小 麦 稻 谷 号 糖 号 棉 花 普 500 斯 达 克 指 数 国 富 时 100 国 CAC40 国 DAX 经 225 生 指 数 元 指 数 大宗商品 股票市场 其他重 要指标 | | NYMEX原油 | 62.81 | 1.19% | -0.81% | 4.24% | 2.66% | -0.54% | 66.31 | 5.57% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | NYMEX天然气 | 3.20 | -6.53% | -4.69% | -0.89% | -1.52% | 0.60% | 2.99 | -6.41% | | | ...

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 16946.32 351.19 10703.93 285.54 2361.3 38.81 230.49 80.13 86.41 38.53 5.00 上期 17140.71 341.08 10316.64 282.24 2484.7 38.81 228.58 79.53 85.69 39.39 3.50 周变动 -194.39 10.11 387.29 3.30 -123.40 0.00 1.91 0.60 0.72 -0.86 1.50 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 13022.43 1950.58 380.76 1592.55 本期 11165.93 5423.87 7881.48 上期 13023.75 2100.22 398.21 1618.53 上期 11316.72 5536.43 7903.27 周变动 -1.32 -149.64 -17.45 -25.98 周变动 -150.79 -112.56 -21.79 注:数据来源 ...

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 85.18 83.25 1.93 开工率 71.090 71.863 -0.773 产量 79.23 77.43 1.8 产线条数 209 211 -2 重质产量 42.84 41.4 1.44 产量 104.5165 105.5765 -1.06 轻质产量 36.39 36.03 0.36 厂内库存 158.8 158.11 0.69 库存 5535.2 5306.4 228.8 重质库存 75.64 74.61 1.03 库存可用天数 24.4 23.1 1.3 轻质库存 83.16 83.5 -0.34 库存可用天数 13.17 13.11 0.06 产销率 99.13 95.23 3.9 天然气利润 -166.55 -167.97 1.42 氨碱法毛利 -89.25 -88.8 -0.45 石油焦利润 43.93 43.93 0 联产法毛利 -32.5 -29 -3.5 煤制气利润 -61.79 -67.92 6.13 基差 -50 -60 10 基差 -55 -78 23 1-5价差 -116 -100 -16 1-5价差 -157 -158 1 品种 ...

2.国家能源局发布数据显示，2025年全国风光发电量同比增长25%，占发电量比重达到22%，有力带动可再生能源电量占发电量 比重达到近四成。2025年，我国可再生能源新增装机4.52亿千瓦，同比增长21%。 3.美国总统特朗普表示，美国"必须"与伊朗达成协议，否则局势将"非常严重"。此外，特朗普称以色列总理内塔尼亚胡" 没有说过"要求停止谈判，双方也"没有讨论过"这一问题。特朗普称，如果伊朗不达成协议，"将会是另一种局面"，并警 告未来一个月内局势可能迅速发展。 4.中国氮肥工业协会发布关于市场炒作尿素指导价的说明称，尿素指导价是协会以促进国内尿素保供稳价为宗旨，以稳定尿素 市场预期为目标，综合考虑行业上下游情况提出的指导性价格建议。 早盘速递 2026/2/13 热点资讯 1.美国总统特朗普预计4月初访问中国，习近平主席将同其会见，消息人士还称中美贸易"休战"预计会延长。外交部发言人 林剑对此表示，不久前的两国元首通话中，特朗普总统再次表达了4月访华的愿望。习近平主席重申了对特朗普总统访华的邀 请。双方就此保持着沟通。 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/2/13 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货大幅下跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 3.08%报 4941.4 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 10.62%报 75.01 美元/盎司。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 2.66%，报 62.91 美元/桶；布油主力合约跌 2.61%，报 6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Analyze the price trends and influencing factors of various core futures varieties during the Spring Festival holiday, and suggest investors to hold no positions during the holiday due to high uncertainties and potential large price fluctuations [9][11][13] - Provide historical statistics of the price fluctuations of overseas markets during the Spring Festival in the past decade for investors' reference [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Near - Decade Spring Festival Overseas Market Price Fluctuation Statistics - The average price fluctuation range of overseas commodities during the Spring Festival holiday in history is between -3.5% and 4%. Crude oil, shipping indexes and other varieties have more obvious price fluctuations, especially in the past two years due to extreme events such as geopolitical conflicts [6] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Before the Spring Festival, affected by overseas news and precious metal sentiment, the price fluctuated greatly, and then stabilized with a narrowing amplitude. The supply and demand decreased before the festival. In January, the production exceeded expectations by 1.57 tons, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 3.58 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year - on - year [9] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association's proposal to improve the copper reserve system stimulated the market, amplifying the expectation of supply shortage. As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 131.88 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. After the price correction, downstream industries replenished raw materials, but as the Spring Festival approached, downstream procurement decreased [9] - The price is supported by mine - end disturbances and domestic industry anti - involution, and suppressed by weak pre - holiday transactions. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Before the Spring Festival, affected by non - ferrous metals and precious metals in both domestic and overseas markets, the price volatility increased. In recent days, the market began to trade on supply contraction, and the price rebounded slightly. Due to the maintenance plan of lithium salt factories, the supply in February is expected to decrease. It is estimated that the output in February will be 8.19 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% [10] - According to Chile customs data, in January 2026, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 22,893 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59%. The export to China was 16,950 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.35% [10] - PLS signed a two - year lithium spodumene concentrate off - take agreement with Tianyi Lithium Industry, providing a floor price for lithium prices. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen. In March, the downstream production orders are expected to increase significantly, and the demand for lithium carbonate will rise. The inventory is gradually shifting downstream. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Eight OPEC+ member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. During the off - season of crude oil demand, US crude oil inventories increased significantly more than expected, but propane and refined oil inventories decreased significantly, and the overall oil product inventory decreased slightly. The global floating crude oil storage is high, and the market is in a state of supply surplus [12] - Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arab Light crude oil shipped to Asia in March 2025. The EIA's February report raised the forecast of crude oil supply surplus in 2026. The oil production in Venezuela is expected to recover in mid - 2026 [12] - The US - Iran nuclear talks in Muscat, Oman "temporarily" ended. The US warned ships flying the US flag to stay away from Iranian waters. The situation in the Middle East is uncertain. It is expected that the oil price will fluctuate greatly during the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to hold no positions [13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% last week, which is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is estimated that the domestic asphalt production in February 2026 will be 193.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.4 tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5 tons (6.5%) [14] - The downstream construction rates of asphalt industries decreased before the Spring Festival. The national asphalt shipment decreased by 1.33% to 21.16 tons. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly and is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is restricted, which may affect production and cost [14] - Some refineries resumed production, and the production rate increased slightly. The spot trading was light before the Spring Festival. The asphalt price will fluctuate with the oil price. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday and close the 03 - 06 reverse spread [14] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of February 6, the downstream construction rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84%. The construction rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74%, and the orders continued to decline. On February 12, the PP enterprise construction rate remained at about 82.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn decreased to about 28% [15][16] - The petrochemical inventory in February decreased well and is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the expected military conflict, and the crude oil price rebounded. The downstream demand is weak before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold no positions for single - side trading and hold a light position for narrowing the L - PP spread [16] 3.2.6 Plastic - On February 12, the plastic construction rate remained at about 92%. As of the week of February 6, the downstream construction rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73%. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased, and the overall downstream construction rate decreased seasonally [17] - The petrochemical inventory in February decreased well and is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the expected military conflict, and the crude oil price rebounded. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. It is recommended to hold no positions for single - side trading and hold a light position for narrowing the L - PP spread [17] 3.2.7 PVC - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC construction rate increased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.26%. The downstream construction rate decreased by 3.33 percentage points, and the downstream's willingness to stock up is low. After the price increase, the domestic export orders decreased, but the previous export rush reduced the sales pressure [19] - The social inventory continued to increase and is still at a high level. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit is under pressure, and the PVC construction rate is expected to change little. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [19] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Before the Spring Festival, coking coal entered a weak shock range, with both supply and demand decreasing. As the holiday approached, domestic mine production decreased, and the supply of Mongolian coal was restricted. The rumor of Indonesia's export suspension has high uncertainty [20] - The downstream demand is in the off - season, and steel mills and coking enterprises maintain low - level inventory and replenish inventory as needed. The coking enterprises' profit has recovered, but there is a risk of price reduction after the holiday. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [20] 3.2.9 Urea - Before the Spring Festival, urea showed an upward - trending shock. Today, it rose sharply due to market rumors, and the order collection during the holiday was completed smoothly. The upstream factory production is stable during the holiday, with a daily output of 21 tons, which is relatively high year - on - year and month - on - month [22] - The previous high - output pressure has been mostly digested. The inventory decreased significantly last year, and it is expected to increase during the holiday. After the holiday, it will enter the agricultural demand peak season, and the supply - demand relationship will be in a tight balance. However, the price increase may be restricted by policies. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Plastic supply and demand pattern improves limitedly, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The upstream petrochemical inventory is low, and the basis has been repaired. Due to the long Spring Festival holiday, the risk of unilateral positions is high, so it is recommended to hold no positions for the holiday. Since there is new plastic production capacity put into operation recently, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, it is advisable to hold a light - position short L - PP spread [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally. Petrochemical de - stocking in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in recent years. The cost of crude oil rebounded due to market concerns about military conflicts between the US and Iran. New plastic production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, then decreased in position and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6732 yuan/ton, the highest was 6834 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6734 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.72%. The position decreased by 2602 lots to 501315 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Some prices in the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally [4]. - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 440,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year. Petrochemical de - stocking was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $69 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $695 per ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $675 per ton week - on - week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market has large fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday due to the uncertainty of the US-Iran nuclear negotiation. The oil price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to participate cautiously and hold an empty position during the holiday [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase of oil production in March. The EIA data shows that due to the fading impact of winter storms, US crude oil inventories have increased significantly beyond expectations, but the de - stocking of propane and refined oil inventories is large, and the overall oil product inventory has decreased slightly. However, the global floating crude oil storage is high, and the crude oil is still in a supply - surplus pattern. Saudi Aramco has announced a 30 - cent per barrel price cut for Arab light crude oil shipped to Asia in March 2025. The EIA's latest February monthly report has further raised the supply - surplus amplitude of crude oil in 2026 [1] - With the US expanding the permission for Venezuelan oil - related transactions, Venezuela's oil production is expected to recover to the level before the US maritime blockade in December last year by the middle of 2026. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation in Muscat, Oman has "temporarily" ended. The US has warned US - flagged ships to stay away from Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump has said that if the negotiation with Iran fails, he is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East. He expects the second round of US - Iran talks to be held next week. Satellite images show that the US military has increased the deployment of military aircraft and other equipment at military bases in Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean [1] - US President Trump had a closed - door meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House. He posted on social media that no specific decision was reached, but he insisted that the negotiation with Iran continue to reach an agreement. The geopolitical risk in Iran still has great uncertainty. Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The Russia - Ukraine conflict has not made substantial progress on core issues such as territory and cease - fire. The repeated geopolitical situation in Iran has caused sharp fluctuations in oil prices. The cold wave has weakened, and the next cold wave's impact should be noted. The production of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field has recovered to 60% of its peak and is expected to fully resume production on February 23 [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 0.19% to 476.8 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 476.2 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 486.4 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 2201 to 43712 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report maintains the global oil demand in 2026 at 104.8 million barrels per day and raises the global oil production in 2026 from the previously predicted 107.7 million barrels per day to 107.8 million barrels per day. OPEC maintains the global oil demand growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day and in 2027 at 1.34 million barrels per day [5] - On the evening of February 11, US EIA data showed that for the week ending February 6, US crude oil inventories increased by 8.53 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 793,000 barrels and 1.19% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.16 million barrels, while the expected decrease was 362,000 barrels. Refined oil inventories decreased by 2.703 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.313 million barrels. Heating oil inventories increased by 202,000 barrels, and propane inventories decreased by 5.45 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 1.071 million barrels [5] - On the supply side, OPEC's latest monthly report shows that the average total crude oil production of OPEC+ in January was 42.448 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December, mainly affected by supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran. US crude oil production increased by 498,000 barrels per day to 13.713 million barrels per day in the week of February 6. As the impact of winter storms faded, US crude oil production rebounded to near the historical high [6] - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.827 million barrels per day, a 1.06% increase compared to the same period last year, and the increase compared to the same period last year has decreased. Among them, the weekly gasoline production increased by 1.80% to 8.3 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 8.261 million barrels per day, a 0.01% increase compared to the same period last year. The weekly diesel production increased by 3.23% to 4.449 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 4.088 million barrels per day, a 4.11% decrease compared to the same period last year. Although the production of gasoline and diesel increased month - on - month, the decline of other oil products was large, driving the single - week supply of US crude oil products to decrease by 1.15% month - on - month [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The improvement of the PP supply - demand pattern is limited, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The upstream petrochemical inventory is low, and the basis has been repaired. Due to the long Spring Festival holiday, the risk of unilateral positions is high, so it is recommended to hold no unilateral positions during the holiday. It is advisable to hold a light - position short position on the L - PP spread as plastic has new production capacity put into operation recently, its operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the centralized demand for mulch film has not started yet [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 12, there were little changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring decreased to around 28%. Petrochemical destocking in February was okay, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil rebounded due to market concerns about a potential military conflict between the US and Iran. The number of maintenance devices decreased slightly recently. The price of BOPP film in some downstream areas was stable, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry decreased, new orders were limited, and more terminal enterprises stopped work for the Spring Festival holiday, with downstream stocking mostly completed [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract opened higher, then decreased in positions and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6648 yuan/ton, the highest was 6730 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6648 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.73%. The position volume decreased by 7495 lots to 479342 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions were stable. The drawstring was quoted at 6340 - 6880 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 12, there were little changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring decreased to around 28% [4] - Demand: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 440,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Petrochemical destocking was okay, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil contract 04 rose above $69 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $830 per ton week - on - week [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that it is advisable to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival holiday. The Shanghai copper market has experienced significant fluctuations before the holiday, influenced by external market news and precious metal sentiment. Although the fundamentals may improve after the downstream resumes production, the market is easily affected by overseas news and external non - ferrous metals, leading to amplified volatility [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Before the Spring Festival, Shanghai copper was affected by external market news and precious metal sentiment, resulting in significant fluctuations. Subsequently, it gradually stabilized with a narrowing amplitude. The supply - demand logic before the holiday was a double - reduction situation. In January, the production was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. In February, the expected output of SMM China electrolytic copper will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. The news of expanding copper reserves has stimulated the market to rise, amplifying the expectation of tight supply. As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. After the price correction, the downstream industry replenished raw materials, but as the price recovered and the Spring Festival approached, the downstream entered the holiday mode, and procurement and purchases decreased marginally. The price of Shanghai copper is supported by mine - end disturbances and domestic industrial anti - involution at the lower end and suppressed by weak pre - holiday transactions at the upper end [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. - Spot: On February 11, 2026, the spot premium in East China was - 85 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 50 yuan/ton. The LME official price was 13,383 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 56 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of February 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 51.23 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 cents/pound [9]. 3.4 Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 177,200 tons, an increase of 8,282 tons from the previous period. As of February 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 91,100 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 192,100 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 592,500 short tons, an increase of 1,248 short tons from the previous period [13].