【冠通研究】 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 15 日 尿素周报：低价反弹 摘要：上周尿素盘面连续下跌，周一开盘低开高走，日内反弹。周末以 来，尿素价格继续稳中向下运行，新单成交尚未转好，但目前价位已经 有拿货意向，今日受期货反弹的影响，现货低价成交顺畅。山东、河南 及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1580-1650 元/吨，高报 价工厂主要执行出口集港订单。基本面来看，尿素工厂近两周复产为主， 产量回升，目前日产接近 19 万吨，需求端，阅兵后一周复合肥工厂开 工负荷回升，目前开工同步去年基本持平，本月复合肥厂成品库存连续 去化，肥料开启至终端转移，且尿素价格近期偏弱运行，工厂利润抬升， 但目前备肥已近七八成，后续增量受限。虽产量减量，但下游内需不足， 库存依然表现为增加，且目前库存高企，大幅高于往年同期，制约尿素 价格上行。整体来说，上周尿素供需双弱下，现货期货均下跌，尿素厂 内库存高企，压制价格上行空间，目前价格跌至市场接受的低价范围， 期货氛围转好后，现货开启低价拿货，盘面筑底开启技术性反弹。 现货市场动态 尿素基差&价差（元/吨） -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 1 ...

冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 2025年9月15日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 宏观与大宗商品周报 核心观点 最近，资本市场继续高歌猛进，风险偏好乐观亢奋，降息交易总体主导市场，风险资产多数收涨，波动率VIX指数回落在 历史低位运行。海外，通胀的强韧与就业数据的走弱，令投资者不断强化着降息预期，9月降息几乎板上钉钉，市场的分歧在 于降25还是50bp,以及后续降息的幅度和速度。全球主要股市多数收涨，美股再创历史新高，A股再次挑战年内高点，BDI指数 大幅上扬，美债收益率与美元指数联袂下挫，非美货币整体受益。大宗商品走势分化，油价小幅反弹支撑能源板块，降息交易 之下，叠加美国劳动力市场放缓和全球各地纷争摩擦的暗潮涌动，金价屡创新高并带动银价的走升，有色板块亦表现强势， CRB周度收涨；国内，出口数据开始弱化，通胀指标颓势加剧，"反内卷"行情仍在演绎，只是不再似七 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In August 2025, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the national economy maintained a generally stable and progressive development trend. Production and demand were basically stable, employment and prices were generally stable, and new driving forces were cultivated and strengthened [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry - In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month. The added value of the mining industry, manufacturing, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 5.1%, 5.7%, and 2.4% year - on - year respectively. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry and high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 8.1% and 9.3% year - on - year respectively, faster than the overall industrial added value [3]. - From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year. In August, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the enterprise production and operation activity expectation index was 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points [3]. - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 40204 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [3]. Services - In August, the national service industry production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year. The production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, finance, and leasing and business services increased by 12.1%, 9.2%, and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, faster than the service industry production index [4]. - From January to August, the national service industry production index increased by 5.9% year - on - year. From January to July, the operating income of service enterprises above designated size increased by 7.4% year - on - year [4]. - In August, the service industry business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the service industry business activity expectation index was 57.0%, up 0.4 percentage points. Some industries were in the high - level boom range [4]. Consumption - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. The retail sales of urban and rural consumer goods increased by 3.2% and 4.6% year - on - year respectively. The retail sales of goods and catering revenue increased by 3.6% and 2.1% respectively [5]. - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 323906 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The national online retail sales were 99828 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The online retail sales of physical goods were 80964 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, accounting for 25.0% of the total retail sales of consumer goods [5]. - From January to August, the service retail sales increased by 5.1% year - on - year, with relatively fast growth in cultural and sports leisure services, tourism consulting and leasing services, and transportation services [5]. Investment - From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 4.2%. Infrastructure investment increased by 2.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% [6]. - The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 57304 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; the sales volume was 55015 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.3% [6]. - In August, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month [6]. Import and Export - In August, the total volume of goods imports and exports was 38744 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 23035 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; imports were 15709 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% [7]. - From January to August, the total volume of goods imports and exports was 295696 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 176056 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9%; imports were 119640 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.2% [7]. - From January to August, general trade imports and exports increased by 2.2%, accounting for 63.9% of the total import and export volume. Imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road increased by 5.4%. Private enterprise imports and exports increased by 7.4%, accounting for 57.1% of the total import and export volume, 2.1 percentage points higher than the previous year [7]. Price - In August, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year - on - year and remained flat month - on - month. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [8]. - From January to August, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year [8]. - In August, the ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points, and remained flat month - on - month; the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 4.0% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points, and remained flat month - on - month [8]. Employment - From January to August, the average urban surveyed unemployment rate nationwide was 5.2%. In August, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month of the previous year [8]. - The surveyed unemployment rate of local household registration labor force was 5.4%; the surveyed unemployment rate of non - local household registration labor force was 5.0%, among which the surveyed unemployment rate of non - local agricultural household registration labor force was 4.7% [8]. - The surveyed unemployment rate in 31 large - scale cities was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and down 0.1 percentage points from the same month of the previous year. The average weekly working hours of enterprise employees nationwide were 48.5 hours [8].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/09/15 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.19%报 3680.70 美元/盎司， 周涨 0.75%，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.26%报 42.68 美元/盎司，周涨 2.71%。市场对 美联储降息预期持续升温，多家机构上调降息预测。 2. 国际油价小幅走强，美油主力合约收涨 0.37%，报 62.60 美元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The fundamentals of copper are generally strong. Mine accidents and low inventories support copper prices, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut continues to underpin the downside. The market is expected to be mainly in a strong sideways trend [9]. - **Crude Oil**: In the medium to long term, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken. In the short term, it is advised to gradually take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks and partial release of OPEC+ meeting negatives [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply and demand of asphalt both increase. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and then wait and see as the asphalt futures price has fallen to the lower edge of the trading range [12]. - **PP**: It is expected that PP will trade sideways in the near term with limited downside as downstream demand may improve during the peak season, but the industry lacks anti - involution policies [13]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to trade sideways with limited downside in the near term as the demand for agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the industry lacks anti - involution policies [15]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to decline sideways as its fundamentals are under pressure with high inventory and weak demand, and the industry lacks effective policies [16][18]. - **Urea**: The urea market is bottoming out, and a technical rebound is expected as the inventory is high and domestic demand is weak [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 12, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Silver, apples, copper, nickel, aluminum, and others rose, while the container shipping index (European line), low - sulfur fuel oil, and others declined. Among stock index futures, IF and IH fell, while IC and IM rose. Among bond futures, TS fell, while TF, T, and TL rose [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:17 on September 12, copper 2510, silver 2510, and 30 - year treasury bonds 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 300 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [7]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Varieties 3.2.1 Copper - The US initial jobless claims reached a nearly four - year high, and CPI increased. China's copper ore imports in August increased year - on - year. The smelter processing fee decreased, and the sulfuric acid price may have reached a high. Five smelters have maintenance plans in September, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline. The terminal profit is weak, and the peak - season expectation is uncertain [9]. 3.2.2 Crude Oil - The US oil products are in a state of over - inventory, and the refinery operating rate has slightly increased. OPEC+ will adjust production in October, and Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The US - India trade issue may affect the global oil trade flow. The consumption peak season is ending, and the supply - demand balance is expected to weaken [10]. 3.2.3 Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate has increased this week but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September has increased significantly. The downstream operating rate has mostly increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory - to - sales ratio has increased but is still at a low level. The cost support has weakened [11][12]. 3.2.4 PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has increased, and the enterprise operating rate has decreased. The proportion of standard - grade拉丝 production has declined. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased. The downstream is expected to enter the peak season [13]. 3.2.5 Plastic - The plastic operating rate has decreased, and the PE downstream operating rate has increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased. The agricultural film is entering the peak season [15]. 3.2.6 PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is mostly stable. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low. The export expectation has weakened, and the social inventory is high. New production capacity has been put into operation or is planned to be tested [16]. 3.2.7 Urea - Urea opened low and rebounded weakly, then declined in the afternoon. The supply is around 180,000 tons per day, with both restarts and maintenance. The inventory is high, and the demand is limited. The compound fertilizer factory's operating rate has increased, but the inventory is still high [19].

【冠通研究】 原油：原油震荡下行 制作日期：2025年9月12日 【策略分析】 空单暂时逐步止盈离场 原油逐步退出季节性出行旺季，目前EIA数据显示美国原油、汽油超预期累库，精炼油累库幅度 超预期，整体油品库存继续增加，不过，美国炼厂开工率小幅回升0.6个百分点，仍然较高。9月7日， OPEC+正式发表声明，鉴于全球经济前景稳定、市场基本面健康（反映在较低的原油库存水平上）， 八国决定将自2023年4月宣布的每日165万桶额外自愿减产中，实施每日13.7万桶的产量调整，该调整 将于2025年10月起实施。此165万桶/日的产量可根据市场形势变化部分或全部恢复，且将以循序渐进 方式进行。八个欧佩克+国家将于10月5日举行下次会议，这将加剧四季度的原油压力，IEA最新月报 再度提高原油过剩幅度。沙特阿美将旗舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油10月份销往亚洲的发货价格下调1美元 /桶。美国对印度商品额外征收25%的关税，印度若放弃采购俄罗斯原油，将导致全球原油贸易流变 动，造成对中东原油现货的抢购。目前俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口俄罗斯原油，印度和 美国仍在继续谈判。关注后续俄乌停火协议谈判进展及印度对于俄罗斯原油的采购情 ...

【冠通研究】 矿端事故，铜价偏强 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水 70 元/吨，华南现货升贴水 30 元/吨。2025 年 9 月 11 日，LME 官方价 9983 美元/吨，现货升贴水-57 美元/吨。 -500 -300 -100 100 300 500 700 900 华东阴极铜升贴水（元/吨） 2022 2023 2024 2025 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 12 日 【策略分析】 沪铜高开高走，日内偏强震荡。美国初请失业金人数达 26.3 万，较上月增 2.7 万创 近四年新高，远超市场预期 23.5 万。CPI 同比升 2.9%符合市场预期，创今年 1 月以来最 高水平，前值 2.7%；环比上涨 0.4%超预期 0.3%及前值 0.2%。基本面来看，中国 8 月铜 矿砂及精矿进口量 275.9 万吨同比增 7.4%。前期冶炼厂加工费出现回升拐点后，近两期 继续下降。且硫酸价格逐渐出现拐点，预计价格已升至高位，后续对于冶炼厂的利润弥 补将有所下滑，9 月有 5 家冶炼厂有检修计划，涉及粗炼产能 100 万吨，预计 9 月国内 电解铜产量将环比下降，铜关税落地后，进口铜货源回流至国内，且国内产量 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The urea market has weak domestic demand and lacks upward support. The market is in the process of bottom - building, and a technical rebound is expected later [1] - The supply side has a daily output of about 180,000 tons, with recent restarts and overhauls happening simultaneously. The inventory is high, and the market has abundant supply. The demand side has limited follow - up demand boost as downstream备货 is mostly completed [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened lower and rebounded weakly today, then declined in the afternoon. Downstream buyers took small quantities at low prices, and factory quotes continued to decline. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,600 - 1,650 yuan/ton [1][4] - The daily output of urea on the supply side is about 180,000 tons. Jiujiang Xinlianxin's second - phase products are expected to be produced on the 15th. The inventory is high, and the market has sufficient supply [1] - On the demand side, downstream buyers took small quantities at low prices. The operating load of compound fertilizer factories increased to 37.82% this week, a 4.74 - percentage - point increase from last week. However, the inventory of compound fertilizer factories and urea factories is at a high level in recent years, and subsequent demand boost is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,665 yuan/ton, then opened lower and rebounded weakly, and declined in the afternoon, closing at 1,663 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%. The trading volume was 300,585 lots (+7,942 lots) [2] - Among the top 20 long and short positions of the main contract, the long positions increased by 3,502 lots, and the short positions increased by 6,451 lots. Some futures companies' net positions are as follows: Zhongyuan Futures' net long position is - 1,374 lots, Zhongtai Futures' net long position is + 209 lots, Dongzheng Futures' net short position is + 911 lots, and Yide Futures' net short position is + 741 lots [2] - On September 12, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,847, a decrease of 50 from the previous trading day. Anhui Zhongneng decreased by 25, and Anyang Wanzhuang decreased by 25 [2] Spot - Downstream buyers continued to take small quantities at low prices, and factory quotes continued to decline. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,600 - 1,650 yuan/ton, with individual factories in Hebei having higher quotes [1][4] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of basis, the mainstream spot market quotation declined today, and the futures closing price also declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 13 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan/ton) [8] - On September 12, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 186,400 tons, remaining flat, and the operating rate was 78.76% [9]

Group 1: Report Core Data - The current total port inventory is 13,849.47, with a weekly increase of 24.15 [1] - The current daily average port clearance volume is 331.28, a weekly increase of 13.50 [1] - The current inventory of imported ore in steel mills is 8,993.05, a weekly increase of 53.18 [1] - The current daily consumption of imported ore in steel mills is 296.65, a weekly increase of 15.98 [1] - The current arrival volume is 2,448, a weekly decrease of 78.00 [1] - The current output of domestic iron ore concentrate is 41.32, a weekly increase of 3.12 [1] - The current daily average molten iron output is 228.84, a weekly decrease of 11.29 [1] - The current blast - furnace operating rate of steel mills is 80.4%, a weekly decrease of 2.80 percentage points [1] - The current capacity utilization rate of steel mills is 85.79%, a weekly decrease of 4.23 percentage points [1] - The current profitability rate of steel mills is 61.04%, a weekly decrease of 2.6 percentage points, and the profit margin has increased by 1.00 [1] - The current inventory of coarse powder is 10,856.92, a weekly increase of 8.23 [1] - The current inventory of lump ore is 1,626.53, a weekly increase of 42.44 [1] - The current inventory of pellets is 287.4, a weekly increase of 3.02 [1] - The current inventory of iron concentrate is 1,078.62, a weekly decrease of 29.54 [1] - The current inventory of trade ore is 9,034.81, a weekly increase of 26.85 [1] - The current inventory of Brazilian ore is 5,228.22, a weekly increase of 109.26 [1] - The current inventory of Australian ore is 5,806.51, a weekly decrease of 69.51 [1]

早盘速递 2025/9/12 热点资讯 重点关注 尿素、沪铜、工业硅、原油、PVC 夜盘表现 板块表现 非金属建材, 2.75% 贵金属, 29.76% 油脂油料, 10.90% 有色, 20.73% 软商品, 2.38% 煤焦钢矿, 14.49% 能源, 2.91% 化工, 12.04% 谷物, 1.07% 农副产品, 2.98% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% -2.50% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 板块涨跌幅（%） 第 1 页，共 3 页 1、国务院批复同意，在北京城市副中心、江苏苏南重点城市等10个地区展开要素市场化配置综合改革试点。此次开展的要素市 场化改革为期两年，既涉及土地、劳动力、资本等传统要素，还涉及技术、数据等创新要素，将着力破除阻碍要素自由流动和 ...