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冠通期货资讯早间报-20250730
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market had a mixed performance overnight, with most black - series and non - metallic building materials rising, and international oil prices surging due to the US - EU trade agreement. The financial market showed different trends, with A - shares rising, Hong Kong stocks slightly falling, and overseas stock markets having mixed performances. The bond and foreign exchange markets also had their own fluctuations [2][20][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures: Most black - series and non - metallic building materials rose, such as a 6.99% increase in coking coal, 5.92% in coke, 5.84% in glass, etc. International oil prices increased, with the US crude oil main contract up 3.81% to $69.25/barrel and Brent crude up 3.53% to $71.77/barrel. International precious metals also rose, while London base metals had a mixed close [2][3]. Important Information Macro - Information - The IMF raised China's 2025 growth rate forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% due to stronger - than - expected economic activities in the first half of 2025 and lower - than - expected actual tariffs between China and the US [6]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading fees of glass, soda ash, and caustic soda futures contracts. The domestic refined oil price remained unchanged this round as the adjustment amount per ton was less than 50 yuan. Hainan Development's subsidiary carried out kiln shutdown and production reduction [8][10]. Metal Futures - Domestic component companies slightly increased their quotes due to cost pressure, but downstream acceptance was low. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association refuted rumors about the anti - involution work in the photovoltaic industry [12]. Black - Series Futures - The fourth round of coke price increase was fully implemented. Iron ore inventories at major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the inventory at 47 Chinese ports also declined. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange resumed and added some futures delivery warehouse businesses. The China Iron and Steel Industry Association emphasized the imbalance between supply and demand in the steel industry and called for industry self - discipline [13][15]. Agricultural Product Futures - July's imported soybean arrivals and oil mill crushings remained high, and the expected end - of - July soybean meal inventory was about 1.1 million tons. Indonesia expected to export more palm oil to India in 2025. EU's imports of palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed, and soybeans decreased compared to last year. Canada's oilseed processing data showed different trends in June [17][18]. Financial Market Finance - A - shares rose in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.33%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.64%, and ChiNext Index up 1.86%. Hong Kong stocks slightly fell, but southbound funds continued to flow into the Hong Kong market, and the annual inflow might exceed HK$1 trillion. The number of A - share stocks with a price of over 100 yuan reached 101. Listed companies actively participated in share repurchases. Hong Kong market's trading volume and market value increased compared to last year [20][21][23]. Industry - Domestic refined oil prices remained unchanged this round. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association refuted rumors about anti - involution work. The State Post Bureau and the Ningbo Banking Association addressed industry involution issues [24][25]. Overseas - Trump set a 10 - day deadline for Russia and Ukraine to reach a cease - fire and threatened economic punishment. There were uncertainties in US - India trade relations. The Fed's voting number for the interest - rate decision decreased. The EU planned to buy $40 billion worth of AI chips from the US. US economic data showed a narrowing trade deficit, changes in housing prices, and job vacancies. The Bank of Korea considered further interest - rate cuts [27][28][31]. International Stock Markets - US stocks fell, while European stocks rose. High - end analysts warned about potential stock price damage from tariffs. Boeing's Q2 revenue increased, while Merck & Co. announced a restructuring. Novo Nordisk and Stellantis faced performance challenges [32][33][35]. Commodities - Domestic commodity futures had a mixed overnight performance, with black - series and non - metallic building materials mostly rising. International oil prices increased due to the US - EU agreement. Precious metals rose, and base metals had a mixed close [2][37][39]. Bonds - The domestic bond market adjusted, with yields rising and Treasury bond futures falling. The issuance of panda bonds in the inter - bank market exceeded 100 billion yuan. US bond yields fell due to trade - friction concerns [40]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated, and the US dollar index rose, with most non - US currencies falling [41][43]. Upcoming Events - There are multiple events scheduled, including Chinese central bank's open - market operations, press conferences, interest - rate decisions by central banks, and corporate earnings reports [45].
冠通每日交易策略-20250729
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 10:31
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the short - term supply is loose due to tariff implementation, while the medium - to - long - term supply is tight. The market is bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8] - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement. Caution is needed [9][10] - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate in the near term. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies in September [11] - For asphalt, it is expected to oscillate recently [13] - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] - For plastics, it is expected to oscillate recently, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] - For PVC, it is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [18] - For coking coal, due to high volatility, cautious operation is advisable [19] - For urea, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on July 29, most domestic futures contracts declined. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, while glass dropped over 7%. In stock index futures, most contracts rose, and in treasury bond futures, most contracts declined [4] Capital Flows - As of 15:14 on July 29, rebar 2510, soda ash 2509, and glass 2509 had capital inflows of 1.39 billion, 1.272 billion, and 1.225 billion respectively. Lithium carbonate 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and ferromanganese silicon 2509 had capital outflows of 1.658 billion, 1.36 billion, and 827 million respectively [5] Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - The supply is currently loose due to tariff influence and may tighten in the long run. The market is bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price is declining. The supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement [9][10] Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. OPEC+ will increase production. Prices are expected to oscillate [11] Asphalt - Supply and demand indicators show mixed trends. It is expected to oscillate recently [13] PP - Downstream开工率 is low. Supply and cost factors interact. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] Plastics - Downstream开工率 is low. Supply increases. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] PVC - Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [18] Coking Coal - Supply is stable, and demand is strong. High volatility requires cautious operation [19] Urea - Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory removal slows. It is expected to remain weakly oscillating [21]
市场博弈铜关税
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 10:06
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the market is in a period of gaming over US copper tariffs, with a high bearish sentiment. Along with the correction after the cooling of the domestic commodity sentiment, the market trend is bearish. Short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton, and it is pressured by the 5 - day moving average above. - In the medium - to - long - term, after the raw material inventory of smelters is depleted, there may be an increase in maintenance of production capacity. The market is bullish in the medium - to - long - term, and there may be an oversold rebound after the sentiment is digested. The supply is loose in the short - term due to the tariff implementation and tight in the medium - to - long - term. The copper consumption structure may change due to trade uncertainties and the 50% US copper tariff, affecting the apparent copper consumption [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market rumors of possible exemption of Chilean copper tariffs led to a sharp decline in US copper prices, while the impact on Shanghai and London copper was small. Sino - US economic and trade talks started in Stockholm, Sweden. - In the short - term, the supply is affected by the tariff implementation and is loose, but it is tight in the medium - to - long - term. After the copper tariff is implemented, more copper concentrates may be transferred to China. - Recently, with the decline in copper concentrate imports and high operating loads of domestic smelters, the inventory of refined copper concentrates has been continuously depleted. - The TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling and stabilized. Smelters can currently rely on by - products such as sulfuric acid to make up for losses, and most smelters have raw material reserves, so the production enthusiasm is okay. The concentrated maintenance season is expected to be in the third quarter or after a significant depletion of raw material inventory [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened high, rose, and then fluctuated downward, closing at 78,840 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,096 to 115,164 lots, and the short positions decreased by 930 to 115,790 lots. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 85 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 0 yuan/ton. On July 28, 2025, the LME official price was $9,830/ton, and the spot premium was - $47/ton [4]. Supply Side As of July 25, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $42.73/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.26 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 18,100 tons, an increase of 251 tons from the previous period. As of July 24, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 127,600 tons, a slight increase of 225 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 250,800 short tons, an increase of 2,184 short tons from the previous period [8].
交投情绪冷清,期现均回调
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 10:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened low and moved high, closing down at the end of the session. The weak futures market affected the spot sentiment, with upstream factories having poor sales and prices showing a downward trend. The supply is sufficient, and although some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in August, the daily output remains high. The demand in the main delivery areas has weakened, and the domestic demand has declined. Despite the support of export containerization, the inventory reduction rate has slowed down, indicating weak terminal demand. The current market is bearish, but there is still a possibility of a rebound. Overall, the market remains in a weak and volatile state [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures market was weak, affecting the spot market. Supply is ample, and although there will be maintenance in August, the daily output stays high. The demand in the main delivery areas has weakened, and domestic demand is sluggish. The market is currently bearish but may rebound, remaining weak and volatile [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1730 yuan/ton, moved high, and closed down at 1744 yuan/ton, with a decline of -0.06%. The trading volume was 152,980 lots (-144 lots). Among the top 20 major positions, long positions increased by 1,701 lots, and short positions increased by 3,744 lots [2] - **Spot**: The weak futures market affected the spot sentiment, with upstream factories having poor sales and prices showing a downward trend. The mainstream ex - factory prices of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton, and the transaction center continued to move down [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the September contract basis at 26 yuan/ton (-26 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: On July 29, 2025, the national daily urea output was 193,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.47% [11]
冠通期货早盘速递-20250729
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 02:35
重点关注 尿素、碳酸锂、豆油、原油、螺纹 夜盘表现 板块表现 非金属建材, 2.60% 贵金属, 28.03% 油脂油料, 12.08% 煤焦钢矿, 15.55% 能源, 3.29% 化工, 11.93% 谷物, 1.15% 农副产品, 3.19% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% -12.00% -10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率(右轴) -10.00 -8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 板块涨跌幅(%) 第 1 页,共 3 页 有色, 19.23% 软商品, 2.95% 早盘速递 2025/7/29 热点资讯 1、当地时间7月28日,中美两国经贸团队在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。这是继瑞士日内瓦经贸会谈达成一系列重要共 识、英国伦敦经贸会谈确立伦敦框架后,中美双方再次就经贸问题举行面对面磋商,旨在将两国元首重要共识转化为具体政策 ...
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250729
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:19
地址 :北 京市 朝阳 区朝阳 门外 大街 甲 6 号万 通中 心 D 座 20 层 (100020) 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/7/29 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1、国内工业品期货迎来大幅回调,焦煤、玻璃、焦炭、纯碱、工业硅、碳酸锂 六大品种主力合约集体跌停,氧化铝、多晶硅等超 10 个品种跌幅超 3%。此前, 前述相关品种受"反内卷"相关政策推动,积累了较大涨幅。夜盘,黑色系普 遍下跌,焦煤下跌 10.25%,焦炭下跌 3.79%。 2、美欧协议和欧佩克增产推高油价,美油主力合约收涨 2.79%,报 66.98 美元 /桶;布伦特原油主力合约涨 2.87%,报 69.6 美元/桶。国际油价上涨主要受美 欧贸易协议达成和欧佩克+坚持增产计划推动。中信证券指出,协议消除关税威 胁并支持美国能源出口,提振需求预期;欧佩克+维持增产表明供应稳定,强化 市场信心。 3、国际贵金属期货普遍收跌,COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.65%报 3314.00 美元/盎司, COMEX 白银期货跌 0.09%报 38.33 美元/盎司。泰国和柬埔寨达成停火协议,地 缘政治风险缓解削弱避险需求。 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 本公司具 ...
冠通期货每月核心策略推荐
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 13:13
冠通期货研究咨询部 通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货每月核心策略推荐 制作日期:2025年7月28日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师:王静 执业证书号:F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话:010-85356618 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师:苏妙达 执业证书号: F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话:010-85356618 投资有风险,入市需谨慎,本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 冠 分析师王静:F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险,入市须谨慎。 宏观 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 2 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 石油化工 分析师苏妙达:F03104403/Z0018167 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 第 4 页 4 分析师苏妙达:F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 铜 分析师苏妙达:F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 尿素 | 部 | | | --- | --- | | 询 | | | 咨 | | | 究 | | | 研 | | | 货 | ...
冠通期货:2025年8月石化板块月度报告-20250728
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 11:52
冠通期货-2025年8月石化板块月度报告 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师:苏妙达 执业证书号: F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话:010-85356618 投资有风险,入市需谨慎,本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 制作日期:2025年7月28日 分析师苏妙达:F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 观点: 石油化工 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 伊以全面停火,缓解了市场对于原油的供给中断的担忧。原油进入季节性出行旺季,美国原油库存降至低位,只是最新 | | 逢高做空 | | | 的EIA报告显示美国原油去库幅度超预期,只是精炼油超预期累库,整体油品库存有所减少,美国汽油价格有所回落。 | | | | | OPEC+同意在八月份将石油产量提高54.8万桶/日。不过,沙特阿美将阿拉伯轻质原油8月对亚洲的售价上调幅度超预期。 | | | | | 特朗普宣布与日本、欧盟等国达成贸易协议,中国将于7月27日至30日与美方举行经贸会谈。IEA调高了2025年全球原油 ...
冠通期货:2025年8月铜月度报告-20250728
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 11:52
分析师王静:F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险,入市须谨慎。 制作日期:2025年7月28日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师:王静 执业证书号:F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话:010-85356618 冠通期货-2025年8月 铜月度报告 投资有风险,入市需谨慎,本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 分析师王静:F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险,入市须谨慎。 核心观点—沪铜 ➢ 宏观方面:7月期间,海外美联储降息问题摇摆不定,鲍威尔任职不确定性不断受质疑,另外美国贸易关税问题再度席卷重来,同时市 场预期依旧的铜关税以50%最终落地,纽约铜大幅拉涨而其他地区铜下挫。国内方面,反内卷举措不断升温,工信部在国新办新闻发布 会上表示,石化、有色金属、新能源等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台,国内大宗商品均出现不同幅度的上行。 ➢ 供给方面:截至2025年6月,铜矿石及其精矿进口数据234.97万吨,环比上月减少4.5万吨左右,预计后续铜关税落地后,铜精矿或向国 内转移增多,届时预计铜精矿将增多。随着铜精矿进口数量的下降,及国内冶炼厂高开工负荷,精铜矿库 ...
冠通期货:2025年8月尿素月度报告-20250728
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 11:52
分析师王静:F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险,入市须谨慎。 冠通期货-2025年8月 尿素月度报告 制作日期:2025年7月28日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师:王静 执业证书号:F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话:010-85356618 投资有风险,入市需谨慎,本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 分析师王静:F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险,入市须谨慎。 观点: 核心观点 供应端:按照目前日均产量测算,7月份产量预计在603万吨,高于往年同期水平。进入季节性检修旺季,尿素日产近期波动位于20万吨以 下的水平,预计8月份尿素产量将环比下降,其中煤头装置的产量预计变动幅度大,同时近期煤炭价格受反内卷举措影响大,成本端给尿素 带来一定支撑。 需求端:即将进入8月农需空档期,近日玉米肥迎来收尾,复合肥工厂处于秋季肥初级阶段,订单以预收款为主,成品库存不断累积,目前 对原料端的准备比较弹性,尿素已备肥近四成,工厂开工负荷预计继续增加,但秋季复合肥以高磷复合肥为主,后续增量有限。 库存端:7月份尿素库存不断去化,近期去化幅度放缓,但同比去年依然偏高。目 ...