地址 ：北 京市 朝阳 区朝阳 门外 大街 甲 6 号万 通中 心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 发布日期： 2025/10/23 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 美油主力合约收涨 3.74%，报 59.38 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨 3.54%， 报 63.49 美元/桶。美国财政部长贝森特表示预计将大幅加强对俄罗斯的制裁， 同时美国上周 EIA 原油库存减少 96.1 万桶，供需两端利好推动油价上涨。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.18%报 4116.60 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.00%报 48.18 美元/盎司。欧盟对俄新制裁加剧能源紧张， 美联储放宽银行资本要 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on October 22, 2025. Some commodities like asphalt and SC crude oil rose, while others such as沪金 and沪银 declined. Different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals and market outlooks, with some expected to be in a strong - side or weak - side oscillation, and some suggest temporary exit for observation due to factors like upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations [5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 22, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose nearly 3%, and some commodities like rapeseed, SC crude oil, etc. rose over 2%.沪金 and沪银 fell nearly 4%, and some like palm oil and rapeseed meal fell over 1%. In the stock index futures, most contracts declined, while in the bond futures, most contracts rose or remained flat. In terms of fund flow,沪金 2512, lithium carbonate 2601, and沪铝 2512 had fund inflows, while中证 1000 2512,中证 500 2512, and沪深 300 2512 had outflows [5][6]. b) Market Analysis - **Copper (沪铜)**: It opened low and moved weakly. Supply - side factors like copper mine accidents and low inventory limited the decline. Although the high price was resisted by the downstream, the export window was open and it was in the peak season, so the market was expected to be mainly in a range - bound oscillation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened low and moved strongly. It showed a pattern of strong supply and demand. With rising prices, production profit improved, and demand from the downstream battery industry was strong. However, demand was expected to decrease slightly next month, and it was expected to be in a strong - side oscillation in the short term [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + planned to increase production in November, which would increase supply pressure. The demand peak season ended, and inventory increased. Geopolitical risks decreased. The market was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation in the medium - to - long term, and it was recommended to exit the market temporarily and watch the Sino - US trade negotiation [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: Supply was at a high level, with开工率 slightly rising. Demand was restricted by factors like funds and weather. With the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the strengthening of the basis in Shandong, it was recommended to exit the market and observe [14]. - **PP**: Downstream开工率 was low. Supply increased with new capacity coming on - stream, and although it was in the peak season, demand was less than expected. It was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [15][16]. - **Plastic**:开工率 was at a medium level. Supply increased with new capacity. Although the agricultural film was in the peak season, demand was less than expected. It was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [17]. - **PVC**: Supply开工率 decreased, but was still high compared to the same period in previous years. Export expectations weakened, and inventory pressure was large. With the lack of actual policies and high inventory, it was recommended to exit the market and observe [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and moved strongly. Supply was tight due to production control and environmental policies, and demand was supported by the peak season. It was recommended to pay attention to the impact of major meetings [20][21]. - **Urea**: It opened flat and moved strongly. Supply decreased slightly, and the cost increased due to rising coal prices. Demand was weak as the autumn fertilizer season ended. The market was expected to stop falling and stabilize [22].

尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1580 1580 0 河南 1540 1540 0 山东 1540 1540 0 山西 1460 1460 0 江苏 1540 1550 -10 安徽 1560 1560 0 黑龙江 1620 1620 0 内蒙古 1610 1610 0 河北东光 1560 1560 0 山东华鲁 1560 1560 0 江苏灵谷 1610 1610 0 安徽昊源 1550 1550 0 山东05基差 -151 -142 -9 山东01基差 -185 -179 -6 河北05基差 -111 -102 -9 河北01基差 -145 -139 -6 1-5价差 70 73 -3 5-9价差 -34 -37 3 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 5556 6057 -501 中东FOB 373.5 373.5 0 美湾FOB 376.5 376.5 0 埃及FOB 432.5 432.5 0 波罗的海FOB 370 370 0 巴西CFR 422.5 422.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 区间震荡 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 22 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。供给方面，铜矿端扰动限制铜价跌幅，前期印 尼铜矿事故对市场的利多支撑暂未消除，本周铜精矿港口库存数量去化，目前铜精矿库 存同比去年大幅偏低。冶炼厂检修仍在继续，产出水平低，目前长单进入初步探讨阶 段，铜矿贸易商手持货源偏少。目前铜处于银十旺季阶段，但受宏观刺激大幅上涨的铜 价格难以被下游接受，市场交投气氛弱，近日价格下跌后带动需求或环比有好转，国内 电力电网及新能源稳定发展，为需求提供刚性支撑，且美联储降息周期内，全球工业需 求前景乐观。综合来看，美国政府停摆接近尾声，市场不确定性减弱，基本面来看，国 内高价抵触情绪高，但国内铜出口窗口打开，累库压力减小，正值银十消费旺季，基本 面提供支撑，铜矿事故限制跌幅，且前期盘面已突破长期震荡区间，盘面偏强运行为 主，但随着需求支撑的转弱，上涨动能亦不足，区间震荡为主。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, it is mainly expected to fluctuate weakly. However, the crude oil price has dropped significantly since October, and the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the US may increase price volatility. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and focus on the progress of China - US trade negotiations [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The next meeting will be held on November 2 [1]. - The peak season of crude oil demand is over. EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories and the decrease in refined oil inventories exceed expectations, and the overall oil product inventory has increased. US refineries are in the autumn maintenance season, and the refinery operating rate has decreased by 6.7 percentage points [1]. - After the discount of Russian crude oil widened, India continued to import Russian crude oil. The EU passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, and plans to raise the import tariff on Russian oil. Russia extended the export ban on diesel and gasoline to the end of the year, but its crude oil export volume remains high [1]. - EIA's latest monthly report predicts that the global oil inventory will increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and IEA's monthly report shows that the global oil surplus is intensifying [1]. - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached, geopolitical risks have cooled down. The EU sanctions, the end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and China - US trade uncertainties have worried the market about crude oil demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 2.52% to 447.2 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 434.0 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 452.0 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 2,276 to 46,980 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, raises the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day, and adjusts the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 from $67.80/barrel to $68.64/barrel. It also predicts that the Brent crude oil price will fall to $59/barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and remain at $51.43/barrel in 2026 [3]. - OPEC raises the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and keeps the 2026 growth rate at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA lowers the 2025 global oil demand growth rate by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, and raises the 2025 and 2026 global oil supply growth rates by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and 2.4 million barrels per day respectively, intensifying the oil supply surplus [3]. Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending October 10, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.524 million barrels (expected 288,000 barrels), gasoline inventories decreased by 267,000 barrels (expected 75,000 barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 4.529 million barrels (expected 294,000 barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 703,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's August crude oil production was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its September 2025 production increased by 524,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.636 million barrels per day in the week of October 10, reaching a new record high [4]. Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.669 million barrels per day, 0.85% higher than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.20% to 8.455 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.713 million barrels per day, 3.19% lower than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 2.60% to 4.233 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.984 million barrels per day, 0.19% higher than the same period last year. The decline in gasoline and diesel demand led to an 11.48% month - on - month decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - On October 22, 2025, the plastic industry's maintenance devices changed little, with the plastic operating rate at around 86%, a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%, with the agricultural film in the peak season. However, overall, the downstream PE operating rate remained at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The post - National Day petrochemical inventory accumulation was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The new capacity of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into production, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly. Although the demand for agricultural film was expected to increase, the peak - season effect was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. Considering factors such as the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the mutual collection of special port fees for ships, and the lack of anti - involution policies in the plastic industry, the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 22, the plastic operating rate was around 86%, a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but its orders and raw material inventory were still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders decreased slightly. The post - National Day petrochemical inventory accumulation was similar to previous years, and the current inventory was at a neutral level. With new capacity put into production, the plastic operating rate decreased slightly. Although the demand for agricultural film was expected to increase, the peak - season effect was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. Due to factors like Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the lack of anti - involution policies, the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract rose with reduced positions, closing at 6936 yuan/ton, up 0.98%. The trading range was from 6873 to 6956 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The position volume decreased by 12,101 lots to 549,864 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market had mixed price changes, with fluctuations between - 100 and + 20 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 6810 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8930 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7230 - 8090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 22, the maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate was around 86%, a neutral level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of October 17, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but its orders and raw material inventory were still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall downstream PE operating rate was at a low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day holiday, petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Wednesday, it decreased by 10,000 tons to 780,000 tons, 20,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The current petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $770/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $780/ton [4].

今日沥青期货2601合约上涨2.95%至3249元/吨，5日均线上方，最低价在3157元/吨，最高价 3249元/吨，持仓量增加4829至186849手。 【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年10月22日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升1.3个百分点至35.8%，较去年同期高了8.0个百分点，处于近 年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，10月份国内沥青预计排产268.2万吨，环比减少0.4万吨，减 幅为0.1%，同比增加35.0万吨，增幅为15.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数稳定，其中道路沥 青开工环比持平于29.0%，仍处于近年同期最低水平，受到资金和部分地区降雨制约。上周，国庆假 期归来，全国出货量环比增加14.48%至25.33万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比继 续上升，但仍处于近年来同期的最低位。无棣鑫岳等炼厂有检修计划，沥青产量将有所减少，但仍 处高位。北方多地项目赶工，只是个别地区降温明显，南方降雨增加，另外，资金端制约，市场谨 慎，影响沥青需求。近日中美即将进行新一轮的经贸磋商，原油价格波动或加大，加上山东地区沥 青基差走强至高位，建议 ...

【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少5.94个百分点至76.69%，PVC开工 率减少较多，但仍处于近年同期偏高水平。国庆节后归来，PVC下游恢复幅度较大，PVC下游开工超 过国庆节前水平，但仍处于历年同期偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执 行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中 中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，出 口签单暂未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份， 房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进 一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比继续回落，仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产 改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，50万吨/年的 万华化学8月份已经量产，40万吨/年的天津渤化8月份试生产后，预计9月底稳定生产，20万吨/年的 青岛海湾9月上旬已投产，目前接近满负荷生产，30万 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年10月22日 【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比回升0.09个百分点至51.85%，处于历年同期偏低水平。其中塑编开工率环比持 平于44.26%，塑编订单环比继续略有减少，略低于去年同期。10月22日，浙江石化4PP等检修装置重 启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至80.5%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例上涨至27%左右。今 年国庆石化累库幅度与往年类似，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，近日中美即将进 行新一轮的经贸磋商，原油价格波动或加大。供应上，新增产能45万吨/年中海油宁波大榭PP二期二 线8月底已经投产，另一条产线45万吨/年中海油宁波大榭PP二期一线9月初投产，40万吨/年的中石油 广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置有所增加。天气有所好转，下游逐步进入金九银十旺季，塑 编开工稳定，PP下游多数行业有继续走高预期，只是目前旺季需求不及预期，市场缺乏大规模集中 采购，国庆节后备货需求阶段性减弱，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。中美双方相互对对方船舶收取 船舶特别港务费，对于经济增长的担忧加剧。PP产业还未有反内卷实际政策落地，当然反内卷 ...

2025 年 10 月 22 日，尿素仓单数量 5556 张，环比上个交易日-501 张，其中 黑龙江隆信-20 张，铁岭东北丰-181 张，东平津晖-300 张。主力合约前二十名 主力持仓席位来看，多头-1392 手，空头-2010 手。其中，中泰期货净多单-606 手、方正中期净多单+129 手；华泰期货净空单-559 手，东证期货净空单+361 手。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【冠通期货研究报告】 止跌企稳 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 22 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素盘面平开高走，整体偏强。上游工厂走货形式尚可，维持弱稳运行。 山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1490-1540 元/吨。基 本面来看，尿素上游工厂装置检修与复产并行，日产小幅降低，同比去年偏低， 原料端动力煤价格持续上行，尿素成本端走强，前期尿素价格下跌至水煤浆成本 线后出现反弹，天然气企业连续亏损，中原大化已因亏损问题而检修停车，即将 进入供暖季节，预计天然气企业开工后续成下降趋势。需求端，秋季肥收尾为主， 复合肥工厂降低开工负荷，终端走货以成品 ...