地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 15 日 热点品种 豆油： 今日豆油主力 09 合约早盘开盘价 8010 元/吨，收盘价 8012 元/吨，收盘涨幅 0.30%，盘中最低触及 7984 元/吨，最高达到 8038 元/吨，价格突破 8000 元/吨 压力位，预期后续或将震荡偏强走势。供应端方面，未来两周美豆产区降雨略高 于常值，温度略低于常值，总体上有利于作物生长。国内油厂压榨率提升，油厂 周度压榨量保持在 200 万吨以上，豆油库存持续增加，根据金十期货最新数据显 示，全国重点地区豆油商业库存 104.94 万吨，环比上周增加 2.97 万吨，增幅 2.91%，豆油现货供应整体宽松。近两周工厂虽因油粕胀库的原因导致开机率自 半个月前的 70%下降至 60%左右，豆油产量减少，但是下游贸易商提货不多，导 致了工厂豆油库存继续增加。需求端方面，国际原油下跌，买豆油卖豆粕套利仍 在，且国内油脂消费淡季叠加国内中央经济工作会议提出价格反内卷信号，宏观 资金寻找低价远月合约做多，近期 ...

【冠通研究】 行情转弱，短期震荡 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 15 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。现货价格继续下移，内需转弱，难以 支撑高价，基本面来看，目前尿素装置检修与复产并行，日产围绕 20 万吨上下 波动，本周工厂装置多发复产，后续依然有新增产能陆续投放，供应端压力短 期难以释放。需求端以农需拿货及工业刚需拿货为主，主交割区农业需求逐渐 减少，本月预计玉米追肥将结束，复合肥工厂维持低位开工，目前处于秋季肥 生产初级阶段，订单以预收款为主，销售压力暂时不大，对尿素需求量弹性 大。上游企业出口需求支撑目前不温不火的国内行情，承担出口配额企业积极 集港出货。库存继续去化，一方面农业需求局部交易顺畅，另一方面快速出口 集港，库存去化同样提振尿素行情。整体来说，出口配额增加消息不及市场预 期，行情回落，基本面国内供需依旧维持宽松，无法支撑高位价格目前出口订 单依然在执行，后续配额问题可能将继续发酵，尿素盘面震荡为主。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 现货方面：现货价格继续下移，内需疲软无法支撑行情。山东、河南及河 北尿素工厂小颗 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in Shanghai copper prices is mainly due to the US plan to impose a 50% copper tariff, exceeding previous expectations. There is a cold expectation for cross - regional arbitrage in the future, and export demand will significantly decrease. Although the expectation of tight supply at foreign copper mines has not been reversed, the downward space for copper is limited. Attention should be paid to the US CPI data tonight [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, copper opened low and weakened during the day. In June, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1%. Trump announced tariff hikes on 14 countries (effective on August 1), threatening to impose a 200% tariff on drugs and a 50% surcharge on copper. Since the implementation of the 232 copper tariff, US copper prices have risen significantly, while London copper and Shanghai copper prices have weakened to varying degrees [1]. - As of July 11, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee is - 43.23 US dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee is - 4.32 cents per pound. Although the copper smelting plant processing fee is still negative, it has stopped falling and stabilized. The copper concentrate inventory has increased this period, and the expectation of extremely tight copper supply may improve. After the implementation of the 232 copper tariff, domestic copper inventory is expected to accumulate [1]. - As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, an increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30% compared with the previous month. In June, the cable operating rate decreased, and the air - conditioning industry has passed its peak production and sales period and entered the off - season. The overall purchasing sentiment of downstream industries is weak, but emerging industries such as new energy have performed well [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and weakened during the day, closing at 78,090. The long positions of the top 20 were 115,230 lots, a decrease of 705 lots; the short positions were 111,042 lots, an increase of 214 lots [4]. - Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 90 yuan per ton, and in South China it is 5 yuan per ton. On July 14, 2025, the LME official price was 9,595 US dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 40 US dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of the latest data on July 11, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.23 US dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.32 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 50,100 tons, an increase of 15,800 tons from the previous period. As of July 14, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 69,300 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 109,600 tons, a slight increase of 900 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 236,500 short tons, an increase of 3,061 short tons from the previous period [8].

Group 1: Hot News - China's social financing scale increment in the first half of this year was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - China's total value of goods trade imports and exports in the first half of this year was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. In June, exports, imports, and overall trade all increased [2] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on July 15 to introduce the economic performance in the first half of 2025 [2] - Chinese coal enterprises are urged to implement the medium - and long - term power coal contract system and promote market balance [2] - US President Trump urges Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement, threatens 100% secondary tariffs, and plans to impose new tariffs on multiple countries from August 1 [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, plastic, lithium carbonate, rebar, and soybean meal [4] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials rose 2.79%, precious metals 28.63%, oilseeds 12.36%, etc. [4] Group 3: Sector Holdings - Information on the five - day change in commodity futures sector holdings is presented, but specific data is in graphical form [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% daily, S&P 500 0.14%, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily [6] - Commodity: CRB commodity index was flat daily, WTI crude oil fell 2.38% [6] - Others: US dollar index rose 0.24% daily, CBOE volatility was flat [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial markets, including the decline of international oil, precious metals, and base metals prices; the positive growth of China's foreign trade in the first half of the year; and the latest policies and data in the fields of finance, industry, and overseas markets. It also provides forecasts and analyses of various industries, such as the potential increase in palm oil imports in India and the expected decline in U.S. soybean crushing volume. [2][3][4][8] Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International oil prices generally fell, with the U.S. oil main contract down 2.37% at $66.83 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.82% at $69.08 per barrel [2] - International precious metal futures generally closed down, with COMEX gold down 0.35% at $3352.10 per ounce and COMEX silver down 1.40% at $38.41 per ounce [3] - London base metals closed down across the board, with LME lead down 0.82% at $2005.00 per ton, LME nickel down 0.88% at $15065.00 per ton, and LME copper down 0.18% at $9643.50 per ton [4] - U.S. agricultural products showed mixed performance, with soybeans down 0.35%, corn up 1.14%, soybean oil up 0.73%, soybean meal down 1.00%, and wheat down 0.55% [5] - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed results, with 20 - rubber and soda ash up over 1%, and styrene (EB) and fuel oil down over 1% [5] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - In the first half of the year, China's goods trade imports and exports were 21.79 trillion yuan, up 2.9% year - on - year, with exports reaching 13 trillion yuan and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan. In June, imports, exports, and imports all achieved positive year - on - year growth [8] - As of the end of June, M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year - on - year; M1 balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year - on - year; and the social financing scale stock was 430.22 trillion yuan, up 8.9% year - on - year [8] - On July 15, the central bank will conduct a 1.4 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of July 14, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased by 24.22% to 138,500 tons [18] - In Anhui, a 1200 - ton/day kiln was cold - repaired, and the planned cold - repair capacity in July is 1400 tons/day [18] - In June, China imported 49.89 million tons of crude oil, up 7.1% month - on - month, and the refining capacity affected by maintenance decreased by 22.2 million tons compared with May [18] Metal Futures - The Wa State Industrial and Mineral Administration held a meeting on the resumption of production in the Manxiang mining area [21] - Indonesia will shorten the validity period of mining quotas from three years to one year starting in 2026 [21] - The asset inventory of the Guinea Alumina Corporation has been launched, and its operations have been suspended [21] Black - Series Futures - Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the July silicon - manganese price at 5850 yuan/ton, with a purchase volume of 14,600 tons [23] - The total global iron ore shipments decreased by 78,000 tons, while the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 938,000 tons [24] - In early July, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities increased by 0.8% month - on - month [25] Agricultural Futures - U.S. soybean crushing volume in June is expected to drop to a four - month low, with an expected crush of 185.195 million bushels [28] - India's palm oil imports in June increased by 60% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% [30] - As of July 11, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas increased by 5.21% week - on - week [30] Financial Market Financial - A - shares showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.45%. The market turnover was 1.48 trillion yuan [34] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.26%, and the south - bound capital had a net purchase of HK$8.243 billion [34] - Many A - share listed securities firms expect their net profits in the first half of the year to increase by more than 50% year - on - year [35] Industry - The China National Coal Association emphasized the importance of implementing the medium - and long - term contract system for thermal coal [36] - In the first half of the year, 5.622 million new energy vehicles were registered in China, a year - on - year increase of 27.86% [38] - Some local governments in China introduced policies to support the housing purchases of multi - child families [38] Overseas - Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Russia and other countries, and the EU and Brazil may take counter - measures [42][43] - The U.S. Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in July, and the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan may adjust their monetary policies [42][43][45] - India's CPI in June slowed to 2.1% year - on - year, providing more room for the central bank to ease monetary policy [46] International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks rose slightly, with the Dow up 0.2%, the S&P 500 up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq up 0.27% [47] - European stocks showed mixed results, with the German DAX down 0.39%, the French CAC40 down 0.27%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.64% [47] Commodities - International oil prices fell, and Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude prices in the second half of 2025 to $66 per barrel [48] - International precious metal futures closed down, affected by trade frictions and Fed policy uncertainty [49] - London base metals closed down, pressured by the decline in the expectation of Fed rate cuts and weak demand [49] Bonds - Domestic bond yields mostly rose slightly, and Treasury bond futures closed down [51] - U.S. bond yields rose across the board, driven by inflation expectations and tariff threats [51] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose 17 points, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.24% [52] - Non - U.S. currencies mostly fell, affected by global trade uncertainties [52] Upcoming Events - At 09:20, 69 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan of MLF will expire [54] - At 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities [54] - At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance in the first half of 2025 [54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The upward movement of the lithium carbonate futures market is due to domestic anti - involution measures, but the current market deviates significantly from the fundamentals, and the rebound height is limited under the loose supply - demand pattern [3]. - The urea market has seen a price drop on the futures side, and although export orders are being executed, the domestic supply - demand remains loose, and the subsequent quota issue may continue to affect the market, with limited room for a deep decline [4]. - The price of Shanghai copper has declined this week mainly due to the proposed 50% copper tariff by the US. The supply - side pressure has eased, and the market is under pressure. However, if the Fed's independence is compromised and the US dollar declines, it will support the market, and the downside space for copper is limited [9]. - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks has alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. The market should pay attention to the subsequent development of the situation in the Middle East. The current market has factored in the accelerated production increase by OPEC +, and it is expected that crude oil prices will oscillate strongly in the near term [11]. - It is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread on dips as it gradually enters the peak season [13]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and other products are expected to oscillate at low levels due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, trade policies, and seasonal impacts [14][16][17]. - The price of soybean oil is approaching the pressure level of 8000 yuan/ton, and the supply is abundant while the demand is under pressure. In the long - term, the demand in the bio - fuel industry may affect the price trend [19]. - The price of soybean meal is oscillating strongly, and the supply is increasing. The subsequent demand may increase with the rise in pig - breeding profits. In the long - term, factors such as US soybean planting area and Sino - US tariffs need to be observed [22]. - The short - term sentiment in the steel market has improved, but the steel demand is greatly affected by seasonal factors. It is expected that the upward momentum of steel prices will be limited, and the market will continue to oscillate [25]. - The hot - rolled coil market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to production, inventory, PMI, and tariff policies [26]. - The short - term market for coking coal remains strong, mainly due to the phased reduction in supply and the expectation of capacity clearance [28]. Summary by Product Lithium Carbonate - The futures market rose nearly 4% today, with the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate at 64,650 yuan/ton and industrial - grade at 63,050 yuan/ton, both up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3]. - The supply is abundant, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 62% and an increase in June production to 74,000 tons. The inventory is accumulating, and the pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term [3]. - The downstream is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. The consumption data of new - energy vehicles in June increased, with retail sales of 1.071 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month increase of 4% [3]. Urea - The futures market opened lower and weakened today. The spot price has risen slightly since the weekend, mainly due to the strong performance of last week's futures [4]. - The supply side has pressure, with the daily output fluctuating around 200,000 tons, and new production capacity will be gradually put into operation [4]. - The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the agricultural demand in the main delivery areas is decreasing. The inventory is decreasing, which boosts the market [4]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper has been affected by the Fed's potential interest - rate cut and the US tariff policy. The proposed 50% copper tariff by the US has led to a decline in prices [9]. - The supply - side pressure has eased, with the processing fees of copper smelters stabilizing, and the copper concentrate inventory increasing. The tight supply expectation has been alleviated [9]. - The downstream demand is weak, with a decline in the cable start - up rate in June and the air - conditioning industry entering the off - season [9]. Crude Oil - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks has reduced concerns about supply disruptions, but the subsequent development of the situation still needs attention [11]. - The market has factored in the accelerated production increase by OPEC + in August (an increase of 548,000 barrels per day), and OPEC has lowered the global oil demand forecast for the next four years [11]. - The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the near term due to factors such as the seasonal peak season and potential US sanctions on Russian oil [11]. Asphalt - The supply side has seen an increase in the start - up rate, with a planned production of 2.542 million tons in July, a month - on - month increase of 6.0% and a year - on - year increase of 23.6% [12]. - The downstream start - up rate has mostly declined, affected by funds and weather. The inventory of refineries has increased slightly but remains at a low level in recent years [12]. - It is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread on dips as it enters the peak season [13]. PP - The downstream start - up rate has declined, and the US tariff policy is unfavorable for exports. The upstream propane import is restricted [14]. - The supply side has new production capacity, and the start - up rate of enterprises has increased. The inventory pressure is still large, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate is at a low level. The US tariff policy affects exports, and the upstream ethane import is restricted [15]. - New production capacity has been put into operation, and the start - up rate has increased slightly. The demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large, with a low - level oscillation expected [16]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The export is restricted by policies [17]. - The inventory is high, and new production capacity is about to be put into operation. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - The price of the main 09 contract has increased slightly, approaching the 8000 yuan/ton pressure level [18]. - The supply is abundant, with a good outlook for US soybean production and sufficient domestic supply in July [19]. - The demand is under pressure due to the price advantage of palm oil and the impact of high - temperature weather. In the long - term, the demand in the bio - fuel industry may affect the price [19]. Soybean Meal - The price of the main 09 contract has oscillated strongly, and the market sentiment has slightly improved [20]. - The supply is increasing, and the demand may increase with the rise in pig - breeding profits. The current downstream replenishment is weak [22]. - In the long - term, factors such as US soybean planting area and Sino - US tariffs need to be observed [22]. Rebar - The futures market has shown a pattern of "rising and then falling, closing slightly higher". The supply reduction expectation is strong, but the actual implementation is limited [23]. - The demand is in the off - season, with a decline in daily average trading volume, but the weekly apparent consumption remains above 2.2 million tons [23]. - The inventory is decreasing, and the cost support is strong in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The futures market has shown a pattern of "rising and then being blocked, closing slightly higher". The supply pressure is increasing, and the weekly output is expected to exceed 3.25 million tons [26]. - The demand is weak, with the weekly apparent consumption remaining below 1.8 million tons. The inventory transfer from factories to social warehouses is slow [26]. - The cost provides support, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [26]. Coking Coal - The price has increased today. The supply pressure has eased due to the reduction in Mongolian coal imports and the resumption of domestic mines [27]. - The market is affected by anti - involution measures, and the inventory has been transferred downward. The short - term market is strong [28].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide long - term and stable investment of insurance funds and strengthen long - cycle assessment of state - owned commercial insurance companies, which helps improve the enthusiasm of insurance funds to invest in the A - share market [2] - In the second quarter, high - frequency data in multiple fields improved, with offline consumption heat index up 25.5%, offline service consumption index up 33.4%, and key project investment index up 25.7% [2] - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise coke prices by 50 yuan per ton from July 15, with first - tier metallurgical coke up 50 yuan/ton, second - tier up 40 yuan/ton, and third - tier up 30 yuan/ton [2] - Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade imposed anti - dumping duties ranging from 23.10% to 27.83% on hot - rolled coils of steel originating from China, effective from July 6 [2] Group 2 - Key sectors to focus on: urea, crude oil, PVC [4] - Night - time performance of commodity futures: non - metallic building materials up 2.85%, precious metals up 27.66%, oilseeds up 12.45%, coal, coke, steel and ore up 14.57%, energy up 3.06%, chemicals up 12.72%, grains up 1.23%, agricultural and sideline products up 2.86%, non - ferrous metals up 19.64%, soft commodities up 2.95% [4][5] Group 3 - Performance of major asset classes: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.01%, a monthly increase of 1.91%, and an annual increase of 4.73%; the SSE 50 decreased by 0.01%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.12%, and the CSI 500 increased by 0.74% [7] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.02%, the 5 - year decreased by 0.01%, and the 2 - year decreased by 0.00% [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index increased by 1.05%, WTI crude oil increased by 3.15%, London spot gold increased by 0.95%, and LME copper decreased by 0.39% [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PP industry is "oscillating downward", and the strategy is to "short on rallies" [1] Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience low - level oscillations. The downstream开工率 is low, the upstream has supply constraints, and factors such as global trade and raw material prices also affect the market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 48.64%, with the plastic weaving开工率 down 0.2 percentage points to 42.0%. US tariff hikes and propane import restrictions impact the market. On July 11, some overhauled devices restarted, and the PP企业开工率 rose to about 83.5%. The proportion of standard product drawing production dropped to about 24.5%. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of further production increases from October, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast. New production capacity was put into operation in June, and recent device overhauls have alleviated some pressure. With the arrival of the rainy and hot season in the South, downstream recovery is slow, and inventory pressure is still high [1] Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The PP2509 contract decreased in an oscillating manner, with a low of 7053 yuan/ton, a high of 7105 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7069 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The position decreased by 2015 lots to 394188 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most PP spot prices in various regions were stable, with drawing quoted at 6950 - 7270 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On July 11, some overhauled devices restarted, and the PP企业开工率 rose to about 83.5%, at a moderately low level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of July 11, the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 48.64%, at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The plastic weaving开工率 decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 42.0%, and plastic weaving orders slightly decreased [4] - **Inventory**: On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 2.5 tons to 72.5 tons, 4.5 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a moderate level compared to recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 09 contract dropped to 69 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by 5 US dollars/ton to 775 US dollars/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for PVC is to short on rallies, with an outlook of oscillating downward [1] Core View of the Report - The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC operating rate continues to decline, and downstream demand is weak. The Indian BIS policy is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventory is increasing, and the real - estate market improvement needs time. With new capacity coming online and weak demand, PVC faces significant pressure and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. The PVC operating rate is down 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%, and downstream operating rate is also low. The Indian BIS policy is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventory is increasing, and the real - estate market improvement is slow. New capacity is about to be put into production, and demand is not substantially improved, so PVC has great pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2509 contract decreased 0.50% to close at 4980 yuan/ton, with an increase of 34,568 lots in open interest to 967,347 lots [2] Basis - On July 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4840 yuan/ton. The V2509 contract closed at 4980 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 140 yuan/ton, strengthening by 80 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply - Some PVC plants are under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%. New capacity of 250,000 tons/year has been put into operation in 2025, and another 1.1 million tons/year is expected to be put into operation in July [4] Demand - Real - estate data showed slight improvement in 2025 from January to May, but year - on - year figures are still negative. The year - on - year decline in investment, sales, and completion area is large. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased 38.17% week - on - week and is at the lowest level in the same period over the years [5] Inventory - As of the week of July 10, PVC social inventory increased 5.37% week - on - week to 623,600 tons, 34.15% less than the same period last year, and the inventory is still relatively high [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Suggest going long on the spread between asphalt 09 and 12 contracts on dips as the market is gradually entering the peak season [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage point to 32.7% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In July, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1] - Demand side: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years. Constrained by funds and heavy rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1] - Inventory: As of the week of July 11, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio continued to rise slightly week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1][5] - Market environment: The intensity of Iran's retaliatory actions was lower than expected, and Israel and Iran reached a cease - fire, sharply reducing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, the US Treasury recently announced new sanctions against Iran. The panic over the global trade war has eased, but the shadow still lingers. Crude oil prices have been fluctuating within a narrow range recently [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract fell 0.52% to 3,606 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a low of 3,598 yuan/ton and a high of 3,618 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 9,424 to 217,364 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region dropped to 3,825 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract rose to 219 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: A refinery in Shandong resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage point to 32.7% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to May, the national highway construction investment decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to decline slightly compared with January - April 2025. From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 0.4%, a slight increase from - 0.9% in January - April 2025. From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.5%, a slight decrease from 5.8% in January - April 2025 [4] - Fiscal policy: The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy this year. The deficit rate is planned to be around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from last year. The deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year. The general public budget expenditure is 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from last year. The total new government debt scale this year is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from last year [4]