Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Rebound", with a strategy of "Sell on rallies" [1] Core View of the Report - Although the crude oil price rebounded due to positive US EIA data and increased market bets on a Fed rate cut in September, as well as the difficult progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement, the subsequent consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and Russia is increasing its crude oil exports. The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weakening, so it is recommended to sell on rallies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. US EIA data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories continue to decline, and overall oil product inventories also continue to decrease. OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, canceling the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut implemented in November 2023 one year in advance. Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for Asia in September. Concerns about the US economy have emerged due to lower - than - expected new employment in July. After the US - Russia talks, there are no plans to impose further sanctions on Russia or additional tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil. EIA and IEA have both raised the global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The US's additional 25% tariff on Indian goods may cause changes in the global crude oil trade flow. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 fell 0.97% to 481.7 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 478.4 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 483.6 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3,618 to 35,842 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory increase in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 to exceed 2 million barrels per day, 0.8 million barrels per day higher than last month's forecast. EIA has lowered the average Brent crude oil price for 2025 from $68.89/barrel to $67.22/barrel and for 2026 from $58.48/barrel to $51.43/barrel. OPEC maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and raises it for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA raises the global oil supply growth rate for 2025 by 370,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day and for 2026 by 620,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day, while lowering the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day to 680,000 barrels per day. US EIA data on August 27 showed that the US crude oil inventory for the week ending August 22 decreased by 2.392 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels, refined oil inventory decreased by 1.786 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels [3] Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's June crude oil production was adjusted down by 46,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, and its July 2025 production increased by 262,000 barrels per day month - on - month, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels per day to 13.439 million barrels per day in the week of August 22. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.15 million barrels per day, with gasoline and diesel demand both increasing month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of US crude oil products to increase by 0.50% month - on - month [4][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the overnight copper price strengthened, with the market focusing on the Fed's interest - rate cut and independence issues. The upward potential of the current price is approaching the resistance level, and caution is needed for a possible correction [9]. - For lithium carbonate, after a significant correction in the market, it has stimulated downstream purchasing sentiment. With supply - side disturbances ongoing and approaching the peak season, the downside is limited, but the market is volatile and requires cautious operation [11]. - For crude oil, although the price rebounded due to certain factors, the supply - demand situation is weakening as the consumption peak season ends and OPEC + accelerates production increases. It is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - For asphalt, under the condition of weak supply and demand, the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate recently with limited cost - side support [15]. - For PP, with the end of the consumption peak season and OPEC + accelerating production increases, and considering supply and demand factors, the PP market is expected to fluctuate recently [17]. - For plastic, with the end of the consumption peak season, oil price pressure, and considering supply and demand, the plastic market is expected to fluctuate recently [18]. - For PVC, due to factors such as reduced export expectations, high inventory, and weak demand, the PVC market is expected to fluctuate downward [20]. - For coking coal, although the market has rumors of a ninth round of price increases, the downstream demand is weakening, but the downward space is limited [21]. - For urea, after a short - term weak adjustment, there may be a rebound opportunity in September with the support of autumn fertilizers and approaching the off - season storage and Indian tender [23]. Summary by Variety Copper - The EU is promoting the EU - US agreement, and the Fed's Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The supply side may face production cuts in the later third quarter, and the demand side has weak market transactions. The upward potential of the price is approaching the resistance level [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. In July, imports decreased significantly, and domestic production in August - September is expected to decline. The demand side has support, but the market is volatile [11]. Crude Oil - The US oil and gasoline inventories are decreasing, and OPEC + will increase production in September. The market is concerned about the US economy, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [12][14]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate is declining, and the planned production in September will increase. The downstream demand is affected by various factors, and the cost - side support is limited, resulting in a volatile market [15]. PP - The downstream and enterprise production rates have changed, and the inventory is at a neutral level. With the end of the consumption peak season, the market is expected to fluctuate [16][17]. Plastic - The production rate is stable, and the downstream production rate has increased slightly. The cost - side pressure is high, and the market is expected to fluctuate [18]. PVC - The production rate is decreasing, the export expectations are weakening, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate downward [19][20]. Coking Coal - The spot price has changed, the import volume has increased, and the downstream demand is weakening. Although there are rumors of price increases, the downward space is limited [21]. Urea - The spot price has increased slightly, the supply has decreased due to maintenance, the demand has been affected by environmental protection, and there may be a rebound opportunity in September [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core View of the Report The urea market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with short - term weak adjustments. After entering September, supported by autumn fertilizers, and approaching the off - season storage and Indian tenders, there may be opportunities for a rebound [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, the market opened high and closed low, with a decline in the afternoon. The spot quotation was stable with an upward adjustment, and the market trading atmosphere was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,670 to 1,690 yuan/ton, with the low - end price up 10 - 20 yuan/ton from yesterday [1] - On the supply side, due to summer maintenance and military parade - related production restrictions, some upstream factories have shut down for maintenance, and the daily production has been adjusted down to about 180,000 tons. However, these are normal planned maintenance, and the impact on the market is limited under high - level production capacity [1] - On the demand side, affected by environmental protection and production restrictions during the military parade, downstream production has been restricted. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has reached a historical high for the same period and has continued to decline for two weeks, with limited room for further increase. The finished product inventory has been at a five - year high in the past two months and has started to decline this week, and autumn fertilizers are gradually being promoted [1] - The inventory has continued to accumulate, increasing by 61,900 tons from last week, a 6.05% increase. Some regions have export orders or maintenance plans, leading to inventory reduction. In the short term, urea is in a weak adjustment, and both upstream and downstream will face maintenance and production cuts next week [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the main urea 2601 contract opened at 1,754 yuan/ton, then opened high and closed low, with a decline in the afternoon, and finally closed at 1,746 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4%. The trading volume was 219,096 lots, a decrease of 2,504 lots. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 1,131 lots, and short positions decreased by 651 lots [2] - In the spot market, the atmosphere in the urea spot market improved today, with more low - price purchases. The spot quotation was stable with an upward adjustment, and the market trading atmosphere was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,670 to 1,690 yuan/ton, with the low - end price up 10 - 20 yuan/ton from yesterday [1][7] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of basis, today's mainstream spot market quotation increased, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [10] - According to Feiyitong data, on August 29, 2025, the national daily urea production was 184,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 78.39% [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of the domestic and international futures, important macro - economic news, the operational conditions of various industries, and the performance of the financial market. It includes information on price fluctuations of various commodities, corporate production and sales data, and policy - related news, which helps investors understand the current market situation and potential investment opportunities [3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - Domestic futures: SC crude oil and cotton rose over 1%, glass rose nearly 1%, while alumina, LPG, etc. fell over 1% [3] - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures rose 0.82%, COMEX silver futures rose 1.27% [4] - International crude oil: US oil rose 0.27%, Brent crude rose 0.31% [5] - London base metals: All rose, with LME nickel rising 1.12%, etc. [5] - International agricultural products: Prices were mixed, with US soybeans rising 0.07%, etc. [7] Important Information Macro Information - Real - estate policy: The central government promotes high - quality urban development, focusing on real - estate construction and renovation [9] - International trade: China - Canada and China - US economic and trade exchanges are ongoing, and the EU proposes to cancel some US tariffs [9][13] - Legal disputes: Cook sues Trump, and the outcome of the case is yet to be determined [10] - Monetary policy: Fed Governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September [11] - Geopolitical situation: Israel attacks Yemen, and the UK, France, and Germany restart sanctions on Iran [17][16] Energy and Chemical Futures - Glass: National float glass inventory decreased, and some photovoltaic glass companies may raise prices [19][22] - Oil: Russia will increase oil exports to India, and Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased [19] - Chemicals: Anti - dumping duties on imported phenol from multiple countries will continue for 5 years, and domestic soda ash inventory decreased [21] - Natural gas: US natural gas inventory increased compared to the previous week [22] Metal Futures - South32: Driven by price increases and output growth, annual profit soared 5%, and alumina and aluminum output are expected to increase [25] - Harmony Gold: 2026 fiscal - year gold production target is 140 - 150 million ounces, and 2025 fiscal - year net profit increased by 26% [27] Black - Series Futures - Rebar: Output increased, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week, and apparent demand increased for the second consecutive week [29] - Casting pig iron: Some blast furnaces in Shandong and Henan are shut down for maintenance, affecting output [29] - Coking: The average national profit per ton of coke is 55 yuan/ton, with different profitability in different regions [29] Agricultural Product Futures - Feed: In July, national industrial feed output increased, and product prices decreased year - on - year [31] - Soybeans: Argentina's soybean sales volume increased, and the US 2025/2026 soybean net sales increased [33][37] - Sugar: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the waiting sugar volume decreased [34] - Cotton: India's cotton planting area decreased by 3% [34] - Corn: The US 2025/2026 corn net sales decreased compared to the previous week [37] Financial Market Finance - A - shares: The three major indexes rebounded in a "V - shape", with a daily trading volume of 3 trillion yuan. M&A activities increased, and brokerages actively conducted research [39][41] - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index fell 0.81%, with semiconductor stocks rising and pharmaceutical stocks falling [39] - Company performance: Ideal Auto's Q2 revenue and profit increased, and well - known fund managers adjusted their positions [42][41] Industry - Data industry: The National Data Bureau is deploying data industry cluster construction pilots [43] - Logistics: From January to July, the national social logistics volume increased by 5.2% year - on - year [44] - AI: The Shanghai AI Security Working Committee was established [45] - Automobile: European new - car sales increased in July, and Tesla's market share declined [46] Overseas - US economy: Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.3%, and the eurozone economic sentiment index declined [47][48] - EU - US trade: The EU proposes to cancel some US tariffs, and the US will reduce tariffs on EU cars [50] - South Korea: The central bank maintains the benchmark interest rate and raises economic growth and inflation expectations [50] International Stock Markets - US stocks: The three major indexes rose slightly, with the Dow and S&P 500 hitting new closing highs [51] - European stocks: Closed mixed, affected by Nvidia's earnings and French political uncertainty [51] - Company performance: Didi's Q2 GTV and profit increased, and Berkshire Hathaway increased its holdings in Japanese companies [52][54] Commodities - Precious metals: International precious - metal futures rose, driven by safe - haven demand [55] - Crude oil: International oil prices rose slightly, supported by a larger - than - expected decline in US crude - oil inventory [55] - Base metals: London base metals rose, but copper price increase was limited [55] - Cotton: India extends the exemption period for cotton import tariffs [56] Bonds - A - share bonds: Bond yields generally rose, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [58] - Government bonds: China issued new local government bonds in July, and Japan's 2 - year government - bond auction demand was at a record low [58] - US bonds: Yields were mixed, affected by multiple factors [59] Foreign Exchange - RMB: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central bank renewed the currency - swap agreement with New Zealand [60][61] - US dollar: The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies mostly rose [63] Upcoming Events and Data Releases - Data: Multiple countries will release economic data such as GDP, CPI, and unemployment rate [65] - Events: There are news conferences, corporate earnings announcements, and various industry summits [67]

1、《中共中央国务院关于推动城市高质量发展的意见》对外公布。意见提出，到2030年，现代化人民城市建设取得重要进展， 适应城市高质量发展的政策制度不断完善，新旧动能加快转换，人居品质明显提升，绿色转型深入推进，安全基础有力夯实， 文化魅力充分彰显，治理水平大幅提高；到2035年，现代化人民城市基本建成。 2、印度政府决定将棉花进口关税豁免期限从2025年9月30日延长至2025年12月31日。 3、据Mysteel，截至8月28日当周，螺纹钢产量由降转增，厂库由增转降，社库连续第七周增加，表需连续第二周增加。其中， 螺纹社库453.77万吨，较上周增加21.26万吨，增幅4.92%；螺纹表需204.21万吨，较上周增加9.41万吨，增幅4.83%。 早盘速递 2025/8/29 热点资讯 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 板块持仓 (350,000) (300,000) (250,000) (200,000) (150,000) (100,000) (50,000) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Win ...

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 13763.02 318.64 9007.19 296.1 2393.3 39.53 240.13 83.2 90.02 63.64 -9.50 上期 13845.2 325.74 9065.47 297.84 2476.6 39.78 240.75 83.36 90.25 64.94 -3.50 周变动 -82.18 -7.10 -58.28 -1.74 -83.30 -0.25 -0.62 -0.16 -0.23 -1.3 -6.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 10713.16 1653.9 283.37 1112.59 本期 9061.02 5036.76 5978.31 上期 10691.95 1743.81 307.18 1102.26 上期 9062.33 4996.89 6114.03 周变动 21.21 -89.91 -23.81 10.33 周变动 -1.31 39.87 -135.72 免责声明： 铁矿石库存周度数 ...

【冠通研究】 震荡调整 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 28 日 【策略分析】 今日低开高走，日内震荡偏强。今日尿素现货市场氛围转好，低价拿货情 况有增加。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1650-1690 元/吨，部分工厂价格上调 10 元/吨左右。基本面来看，今日上游工厂装置多发 停车检修，山西潞安、河南心连心及山西兰花均开启检修，日产数据下调至 18 万吨左右，但目前均属于正常计划内检修。需求端，工业需求有韧性，复合肥 工厂开工已至历史同期高位，后续攀升高度有限，近期受阅兵环保限产的影 响，复合肥工厂连续两周出现限产减产情况，开工负荷继续下调。成品库存近 两个月位于五年同期高位水平，本周库存有去化，秋季肥逐渐开始跟进。期库 存继续累库，较上周增加 6.19 万吨，环比增加 6.05%，部分地区有出口订单或 停车检修计划，库存有所去化。今日盘面震荡回调，行情依然位于震荡区间 内，市场暂无明显驱动，向上向下空间均有限，九月初印标结果将对行情造成 一定影响，短期或震荡调整，中期有反弹布空机会。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1737 元/吨低开高走，日内震荡偏强，最终 收 ...

【冠通研究】 美指回弹铜价承压 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 28 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开低走，日内震荡承压。海外宏观美联储降息预期继续博弈，且美联储 独立性近日遭质疑，下周美国国会迎来关键投票，决定美联储的独立性。供给方面，智 利国有铜业公司（Codelco）上调对于事故损失的估计，下调了 2025 年的产量目标，5 月精炼铜产量同比增长 14.0%，精铜矿港口库存去化至近五年低位水平，冶炼厂 TC/RC 费用继续企稳回升，长协订单有盈利，现货订单依然亏损，硫酸价目前处于历史同期高 位水平，支撑冶炼厂利润，目前 8 月仅 1 家冶炼厂有检修计划，且华东新投产的冶炼厂 开始生产，预计精铜产量波动幅度不大，冶炼厂三季度后期或因矿端资源偏紧及硫酸胀 库而减产停产。需求方面，下游需求表现为不温不火，新增订单有增加，临近金九银十 旺季，行情下方有支撑，上期所库存近两日下滑库存低位区间震荡。综合来看，基本面 暂无明显变动，需求处于淡季尾端，暂无向上驱动力，但下方有韧性。美指受降息影响 前期下挫，底部获支撑有回弹，压制铜上方高度，关注近日美联储职位消息及后续降息 情况。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 28 日 热点品种 期市综述 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 截止 8 月 28 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少，苹果涨超 2%，铁矿石、玉米、 线材、BR 橡胶涨超 1%；跌幅方面，集运欧线跌超 3%，碳酸锂、鸡蛋跌超 2%，对 二甲苯、生猪、油菜籽、短纤、PTA、棕榈油跌超 1%。沪深 300 ...

Group 1: Hot News - Next month, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies and measures to expand service consumption, using fiscal and financial means to optimize and enhance service supply capacity and stimulate new service consumption volume. The Ministry of Commerce and relevant departments have jointly formulated "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports", and relevant documents will be publicly issued soon [2] - Shanghai has issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages, prioritizing the renovation of villages with urgent public needs and many urban safety and social governance hidden dangers. The renovation of urban villages should solicit the opinions of villagers, and the initial shareholding ratio of the town collective economic organization in the cooperative renovation should generally not be less than 10% [2] - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June and narrowing for two consecutive months. Among them, the profits of high-tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% from a 0.9% decline in June, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared to June, showing a significant leading role [2] - As of August 27, among 89 blast furnaces of 23 sample steel enterprises surveyed, 2 new blast furnaces were under maintenance, with a newly added maintenance volume of 4340m³ and a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 10,300 tons. Currently, a total of 16 blast furnaces of steel enterprises in Tangshan are under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal of about 47,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 88.83%. Steel mills will gradually shut down and maintain blast furnaces at the end of the month as required. It is expected that 16 new blast furnaces will be under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 116,600 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate will drop to 78.13%, a decrease of 10.7% compared to the current level (August 27) and a decrease of 6.84% compared to the same period last year [3] - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. By the end of 2026, global oil inventories will increase by nearly 800 million barrels. It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, polysilicon, PVC, Shanghai copper, and plastic [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Night session performance by sector: Non-metallic building materials 2.81%, precious metals 27.04%, oilseeds 12.20%, non-ferrous metals 21.32%, soft commodities 2.52%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.43%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.11%, grains 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.17% [4] Group 4: Large Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.76%, a monthly increase of 6.36%, and an annual increase of 13.38%. The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.24%, a monthly increase of 2.24%, and an annual increase of 10.20%. Other indices also had their respective performance [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.08%, a monthly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 0.83%. Other treasury bond futures also had corresponding performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.32%, and an annual increase of 1.35%. WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.96%, a monthly decrease of 7.74%, and an annual decrease of 11.21%. Other commodities also showed different trends [7] - Others: The US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.86%, and an annual decrease of 9.48%. The CBOE volatility index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 12.56%, and an annual decrease of 15.73% [7]