【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年2月6日 【行情分析】 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落1.0个百分点至24.5%，较去年同期高了0.1个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨， 减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。本周，临近春节，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌， 其中道路沥青开工环比下跌5个百分点至9%。本周，山东地区在价格上涨后终端需求疲软，其出货量 减少较多，全国出货量环比减少1.33%至21.16万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比小幅下 降，处于近年来同期的最低位。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生 产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多中国报价委内瑞拉原油贴水5美元/桶，这比2025年12月份的贴 水13美元/桶大幅缩小，印度石油公司高管表示，委内瑞拉石油以每桶较迪拜原油贴水4-5美元的折 扣报价，国内炼厂获得委内瑞拉原油的可能性增加，但预计还是较美国介入前大幅下降，关注国内 炼厂原料短缺情况。下周齐鲁石化、岚桥石化等炼厂复产沥青，沥青开工低位小幅增加。临 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and meal industry is "Range-bound oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - For soymeal, although the market's consistent expectation of a bountiful harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened, due to uncertainties in post - holiday soybean auctions and arrivals, as well as weather issues in Argentina, it's unadvisable to be overly bearish. It is conservatively recommended to take partial basis at low points, and the futures market should be regarded as a wide - range oscillation [2]. - For oils, although the US 45Z policy strongly supports US soybean oil, its restrictions on raw material imports prevent the benefits from reaching the domestic market. The market is in a moderately bullish oscillation pattern with limited downside and weak upward momentum [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soymeal - As of January 29, 2026, in the 2025/26 season, the US soybean exports to China (Mainland) were 432.4 million tons, lower than 1812 million tons in the same period last year. The US shipped 80.9 million tons of soybeans to China that week. The unshipped but sold soybeans to China in the 2025/26 season so far are 556.3 million tons, compared with 230.5 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - The drought problem in Argentina is worsening, especially in the central and southern regions. A cold front brought some showers, and the weather pattern in February seems more active, which may help depending on rainfall. Otherwise, the crop conditions will continue to deteriorate, and late - sown crops will face more pressure [2]. - Institutions significantly raised the production estimate of Brazil in the 2025/26 season, and the harvest progress is better than last year. Although there are still local weather uncertainties, the market's consistent expectation of a bountiful harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened [2]. Oils - Indonesia plans to set the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline at 10% in 2028 to reduce gasoline imports and improve energy self - sufficiency. However, due to limited ethanol supply, the plan to increase the mandatory blending has been postponed [3]. - In the 2025/26 season, India's sunflower oil imports will drop by about 10% to a four - year low as the price premium of sunflower oil over other edible oils grows, prompting buyers to switch to cheaper alternatives like palm oil, which may help reduce inventories in Indonesia and Malaysia and support Malaysian palm oil futures prices [3].

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期偏震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 2 月 6 日 230 家独立焦企焦炭库存增加 0.65 万吨至 44.64 万吨，全国 247 家钢厂焦炭库存再增 14.19 万吨至 692.38 万吨，已经处于一年 高位，18 个港口焦炭库存为 267.70 万吨，周环比增 4.63 万吨。 利润方面，全国平均吨焦盈利-10 元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈利 12 元/吨， 山东准一级焦平均盈利 45 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-47 元/吨，河北准一级 焦平均盈利 40 元/吨。 下游需求，本周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率环比增加 0.53%至 79.53%，同比去年 增加 1.55%，盈利率环比持平至 39.39%，高炉炼铁产能利用率微幅增长至 85.69%， 日均铁水产量环比增加 0.6 万吨至 228.58 万吨。 上游焦煤，钢厂炼焦煤库存 824.2 万吨，增 9.84 万吨；全国 16 个港口进口 焦煤库存为 523.61 万毒减 24.38；230 家独立焦企炼焦煤总库存 1094.69 万吨， 增 59.35 万吨。 焦炭的供需格 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 6 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少，沪银跌超 14%，铂 ...

2，现货市场：华北，市场稳定，整体出货转淡，业界陆续放假；华东，变 化不大，稳价为主，出货转淡；华中，偏稳运行，中下游回款为主；华南，暂稳， 多数下游收尾，交投氛围转弱。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1020，基差-52 元/吨。 1，期货市场：玻璃主力低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。120 分钟布林带走紧口 喇叭，短期震荡信号，压力关注布林带上轨附近，支撑关注布林带下轨线附近。 成交量较昨日减 29.4 万手，持仓量较昨日增 6827 手；日内最高 1083，最低 1064， 收盘 1072，（较昨结算价）跌 20 元/吨，跌幅 1.83%。 【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 一、市场行情回顾 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 2 月 5 日，本周浮法玻璃总产量 105.58 万吨，环比-0.11%， 同比-3.16%。平均开工率 71.86%，环比持平；平均产能利用率 75.61%，环比-0.09%。 东台中玻两条产线，今日均放水，设计产能均为 600 吨。 库存方面，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存 5306.4 万重箱，环比+50 万重箱， 环比+0.95%，同比-11.7 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The US - Iran geopolitical situation is unclear, market risk - aversion and panic persist, and precious metals and non - ferrous metals have performed poorly in recent days. During the demand vacuum period, the fundamentals are temporarily weak. Therefore, Shanghai copper is mainly under pressure and consolidating [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - From February 9, 2026 (Monday) closing settlement, the daily price limit range of listed copper contracts will be adjusted to 10%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions to 11%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions to 12% [1]. - In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0012 million tons (0.10%) and a year - on - year increase of 16.32%. In February, no smelters are scheduled for maintenance, but the production in February will still be affected by the end - of - January maintenance of some smelters. It is expected that the output will decrease by 0.0358 million tons (3.04%) month - on - month and increase by 8.06% year - on - year [1]. - The high copper price in January suppressed copper demand. Downstream buyers mainly made rigid purchases, and the pre - holiday stocking was coming to an end. The terminal new energy market performed poorly due to purchase tax issues, while other traditional industries and the power industry remained resilient [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened and closed lower, with an intraday decline of more than 2% [1][4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 10 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 60 yuan/ton. On February 5, 2026, the LME official price was $12,905/ton, and the spot premium was - $83/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of February 3, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $50.3/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.22 cents/pound [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 160,200 tons, a decrease of 507 tons from the previous period. As of February 5, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 89,400 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 180,600 tons, an increase of 1,925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 586,400 short tons, an increase of 2,245 short tons from the previous period [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The plastics supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, with low upstream petrochemical inventory and a repaired basis. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate within a range. Due to new capacity coming on - stream recently and the high plastics operating rate compared to PP, along with the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch film, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On February 6, the number of maintenance units changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 90.5%, at a moderately high level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 4.03 percentage points week - on - week to 33.73%. As the Spring Festival approaches, orders and raw material inventory for agricultural films and packaging films are decreasing, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. Petrochemical inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has rebounded. New capacity has been put into production in January 2026. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. 3.2 Futures Market - The plastics 2605 contract fluctuated with a decrease in positions, with a minimum price of 6712 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6822 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6812 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.16%. The position volume decreased by 19,260 lots to 503,244 lots [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6620 - 7120 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8400 - 8980 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 8040 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On February 6, the number of maintenance units changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 90.5%, at a moderately high level. - Demand side: As of the week of February 6, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 4.03 percentage points week - on - week to 33.73%. As the Spring Festival approaches, orders and raw material inventory for agricultural films and packaging films are decreasing, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. - Inventory: On Friday, the petrochemical morning inventory increased by 0.5 million tons week - on - week to 42.5 million tons, 8 million tons lower than the same period in the lunar calendar last year. - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above 68 US dollars/barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 700 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 675 US dollars/ton [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 棉花：临近春节，各地纺企陆续进入停工放假阶段，下游市场销购活动明显 减弱，仍维持开机企业多以库存生产或加快完成既有订单为主，新增订单明显不 足。内地市场需求回落对新疆纺企产销形成一定影响，新疆部分企业产销保持平 稳，整体订单相对充裕。预估节前仍然保持宽幅震荡格局。 白糖：巴西航运机构 Williams 发布的数据显示，截至 2 月 4 日当周，巴西 港口等待装运食糖的船只数量为 49 艘，此前一周为 54 艘。港口等待装运的食糖 数量为156.44万吨，此前一周为178.26万吨，环比减少21.82万吨，降幅12.24%。 其中，高等级原糖（VHP）数量为 146.31 万吨。桑托斯港等待出口的食糖数量为 93.17 万吨，帕拉纳瓜港等待出口的食糖数量为 21.07 万吨。 经测算，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算成本 3888 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完 税估算成本为 4934 元/吨；与日照白糖现货价比，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算利 润为 1512 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完税估算利润为 466 元/吨。 外糖巴西产量较预期有所减少 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：弱稳运行 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开高走，尾盘收跌。今日市场稳定为主，假期订单尚未收满， 山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1700-1760 元/吨，河 南工厂价格偏低端。基本面无波动，工厂多执行前期待发订单，日产已达到 21 万吨，且停车计划少，复产计划多提上日程。临近过年，上游工厂待发尚不充 足，若无利好，现货预计有降价吸单的计划。复合肥开工小规模提升，环保预 警解除但假期前提升受限，等开年后逐渐进入农耕旺季，下游工厂对于尿素需 求将进入年内高峰期，届时下游拿货有回暖。库存数据继续减少，主要系农业 提货导致，且临近过年，下游备货增多，预计年前库存去化为主，后续假期库 存将有增加。目前基本面基本无变动，主要系下游假期停车与上游假期吸单博 弈，年前维持弱稳状态为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1775 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，尾盘收跌，最 终收于 1776 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅-0.17%，持仓量 221626 手（-1184 手）。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-578 手，空 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：商品情绪走弱，期现价格承压 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内维持弱势下行，收于 760.5 元/吨， 较前一个交易日收盘价下跌-8 元/吨，跌幅-1.04%，成交 21.6 万手，持仓量 51.5 万手，沉淀资金 86.12 亿。破位之后，依然呈现弱势下行，下方关注 750 附近继 续试探。 国内宏观层面，延续积极政策预期作为宏观主线的判断。从政策端的变化看， 一季度政策加力实现"十五五"开局之年的经济"开门红"的预期在逐渐走强， 整体政策环境偏暖，这也是我们看多一季度风险资产的核心逻辑之一。 海外宏观方面，本周海外宏观的核心变量之一是凯文·沃什获得新任美联储 主席人选提名，但我们预计对市场影响有限。其货币政策主张为"支持降息，但 主张缩表"，因此被市场认为是一名偏鹰派的人物。在货币政策之外，我们也建 议投资者对美伊局势和美国政府停摆两个具备较大不确定性的风险事件保持关 注。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 770 跌-2，超特粉 665 跌-2， 掉期主力 99.3(-1.3)美元/吨。现货、掉 ...