尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 | | | | | | 2026/2/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | | 本期 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 一周走势 | | 河北 | | 1850 | 1820 | 30 | | | 河南 | | 1830 | 1830 | 0 | | | 山东 | | 1860 | 1850 | 10 | | | 主流地区市场价 | 山西 | 1720 | 1710 | 10 | | | （元/吨） | 江苏 | 1860 | 1850 | 10 | | | 安徽 | | 1840 | 1830 | 10 | | | 黑龙江 | | 1810 | 1810 | 0 | | | 内蒙古 | | 1830 | 1830 | 0 | | | 河北东光 | | 1800 | 1800 | 0 | | | 工厂价 | 山东华鲁 | 1810 | 1810 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 江苏灵谷 | 1840 | 1840 | 0 | | | 安徽昊源 | | 1770 | 1770 | 0 | | | 山东05基差 | | -23 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月25日 【行情分析】 2月25日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在93%左右，目前开工率处于中性偏高水平。截 至2月13日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降13.93个百分点至19.8%，春节假期，下游多数停工放假，整 体PE下游开工率季节性下滑。春节期间石化库存增加48万吨至94万吨，周三石化早库下降6.5万吨至 87.5万吨，较去年农历同期低了6.5万吨，与往年同期基本相当，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水 平。成本端，市场对伊朗局势感到担忧，加上美国能源信息署数据显示美国原油库存减少901.4万桶， 且成品油库存全线下降，春节假期海外原油价格上涨。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东） FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有上涨。目前市场报价大 稳小动，塑料供需格局改善有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，关注节后下游复产进度。由于塑料近日 有新增产能投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，继续做缩L-PP价差。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 塑料2605合约增仓震荡运行，最低价6766元/吨， ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：宏观向好预期仍存，需求表现一般 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 25 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 海外宏观方面，美国经济呈现整体扩张放缓、多领域结构分化的运行态势。 四季度美国 GDP 增速大幅放缓，个人消费成为主要拖累，同时通胀粘性仍存；整 体呈现内需偏弱、增长降温、各部门复苏节奏显著不一的格局。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运环比增加，澳洲发运恢复；本期到港继续走弱，天气影响 到港节奏，后期有望回升；需求端，铁水产量环比回升，钢厂盈利率走弱， 刚需边际回升，关注节后需求支撑力度。库存方面，铁矿港口库存止增，到 港回落叠加钢厂补库使得港口累库压力阶段性缓解，但整体总库存压力仍在 积累。盘面表现承压，节后即将召开全国两会，关注市场情绪变化。 库存压力仍在积累，供应端仍存天气扰动预期，当前市场对节后需求预 期一般，但盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，节后即将召开两会，宏观预期仍 存，关注市场情绪变化。 三、宏观层面 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 国内方面，春节期间出行、消费及 1 月关键经济数据表现呈现差异化。1 月 社融开局平 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月25日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。供应端，春节前，PVC开工率环比增加0.83个百分点至80.09%，PVC 开工率继续小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。春节期间，PVC下游绝大多数停工。出口方面，春节 前，价格上涨后，国内出口签单环比回落，但之前的抢出口使得企业销售压力不大。中国台湾台塑 PVC出口3月份船货离岸价环比2月上调40美元/吨。社会库存在春节假期期间增加较多，目前仍偏高， 库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比 降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落， 春节期间，商品房成交低迷，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下 降，但目前产量下降有限，期货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，春节后现货成交清淡， 社会库存继续增加。不过生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发攻关等关键环节，加快推动聚氯乙 烯行业无汞化转型，加上抢出口节后有望延续，市场对于春节后仍有政策及检修预期，PVC弱现实， 强预 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：减仓反弹 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 25 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周三持仓量减仓 45800 手，成交量相比上 一交易日放量，成交量 1150036 手。日均线来看短期向上突破 5 日均线，但中期 30 日均线，60 日均线压力依旧存在，最低 3024，最高 3084，收于 3076 元/吨， 上涨 52 元/吨，涨幅 1.72%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3210 元/吨，相 比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 134 元/吨。基差仍然较大。 1，供需情况： 供应端：节前螺纹钢周度产量由高位回落。2026 年 2 月 13 日当周， 螺纹钢产量为 169.16 万吨，较前一周减少 22.52 万吨，主要因电炉钢厂集 中检修。长流程钢厂仍维持较高开工率，但整体供应压力较 1 月峰值有所缓 解。 需求端：终端需求季节性萎缩显著。2 月上旬，237 家主流贸易商建 筑钢材日均成交量降至约 2.8 万吨，环比下降超 20%；表观消费量连续三周 回落，2 月 13 日当周降至约 147.6 万 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃、纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 25 日 玻璃：今日玻璃主力低开高走，日内震荡偏强。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇叭，短 期震荡，压力关注日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注前低附近。成交量昨日增 38.6 万手，持仓量较昨日增 32787 手；日内最高 1073，最低 1049，收盘 1064，（较 昨日结算价）涨 16 元/吨，涨幅 1.53%。 玻璃核心矛盾在 "供应收缩预期"（冷修+政策）与"弱现实需求"（地产 低迷+季节性淡季）的博弈，高库存是盘面反弹的最大压力。中期来看，因商品 房销售暂未出现明显好转，玻璃需求预期仍然偏弱。节前部分产线冷修，产能收 缩，供需格局略有改善。而随着 3 月重要会议临近，关注市场对宏观预期以及北 方主产地环保的影响。但往上空间若想打开仍需房产企稳。短期而言，预计维持 震荡运行。关注后期房产政策以及主产地产线检修情况。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 纯碱：主力合约今日高开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇叭，短期震 荡信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨线附近，支撑关注日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry is in a critical game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The sustainability of the far - month contract rise requires near - month inventory reduction, and the policy regulation and the culling of reproductive sows from March to May will be decisive for the future market trend [3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Soybean - Before the Spring Festival, the spot price of soybeans in the Northeast production area rose strongly, with the price of 39% protein commercial beans in some areas exceeding 2.3 yuan per catty. The remaining soybean inventory at the grass - roots level is low, and soybean trade is expected to fully resume after the Lantern Festival. After the holiday, market players have a general need to replenish stocks, so the price of domestic soybeans is still supported in the short term. However, the short - term over - rise of the soybean futures before the festival has led to a negative basis with the spot, which restricts the increase to some extent. Pay attention to the auction announcement of state - reserve imported soybeans next week. Overall, the low point of soybean prices has passed, and the subsequent trend will be more of an oscillating upward one [1] Corn - The Shandong and North China markets have seen a pre - emptive rise. Affected by the slow recovery of logistics after the festival and the incomplete start of grass - roots grain sales, the arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises has remained low, with only more than a hundred vehicles arriving in Shandong in the morning. Enterprises have to raise prices to ensure daily production and replenish post - holiday inventory. In the short term, the low point of corn prices may still fluctuate, but since the stage of the greatest supply pressure has passed, the downside space is relatively limited. If there is a decline and adjustment, it is advisable to consider actively replenishing stocks or buying [1] Egg - Currently, the inventory at all links has accumulated to a certain extent, while the downstream demand is in the early stage of recovery. In the short term, the egg price may remain weakly fluctuating near the opening price, and all parties will mainly focus on digesting inventory. From the supply side, the number of culled laying hens in February may be greater than the supply of newly - laid hens, so the inventory of laying hens in production may decline to a certain extent, but the absolute value is still at a high level, providing limited support for prices. Since the pricing difference of contracts after March has been obvious, the driving force of this slight decline in inventory has been basically exhausted, and further clarity on culling hens is needed for eggs to have more upward - driving forces [2] Pig - Official data shows that the inventory of reproductive sows in December was 39.61 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 million, continuing the trend of capacity reduction; while the inventory of reproductive sows in sample enterprises of Zhuochuang increased to 6.7123 million in January, an increase of 0.0353 million, indicating that large - scale farms have slightly replenished at the low level. The survival rate of piglets has dropped to 93.73%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points, possibly affected by winter diseases, posing a potential pressure on the supply of piglets in spring. In terms of slaughter supply, the pig inventory in January decreased to 56.5446 million, a decrease of 0.3085 million; the monthly slaughter volume was 13.149 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5704 million, which is in line with the seasonal characteristic of the slowdown in slaughter during the Spring Festival holiday. The slaughter weight has not changed much, and the supply structure has not undergone extreme adjustments [2]

【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：高铜价影响下游需求复苏 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 25 日 【行情分析】 沪铜今日高开高走，日内偏强。舆论普遍认为，在伊朗问题上，美国已从"战略威 慑阶段"进入"可执行选项阶段"，也意味着军事选项已不再停留于理论层面，而是开 始进入到可以随时启动的决策区间。基本面来看，假期间上游冶炼负荷相对正常，后续 铜供应以高位稳定为主，SMM 数据显示，1 月产量较预期多 1.57 万吨，预计 2 月回归正 常。2 月 SMM 中国电解铜预计产量环比减少 3.58 万吨，降幅为 3.04%，同比上升 8.06%。需求方面，截至 2025 年 12 月，铜表观消费量为 131.88 万吨，环比上月增长 4.00%。下游工厂尚未开启完全的复产复工，整体市场交投活跃度低，同时由于假期期间 下游需求端暂停，上游产量正常，故铜社会库存量大幅累积增加。关注后续日内瓦谈判 带来的后续形势的研判，警惕避险情绪造成市场的波动，就铜来看，基本面复苏仍需时 间，高位铜价抑制下游需求量，高库存压制上方空间，但紧供应及有色整体的支撑之 下，铜价易涨难跌。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需 ...

美豆出口延续偏强走势，而巴西二月发运少于预期可能 使得四月到港预期 减少，豆粕出现明显上涨。后续需要关注到港以及国储抛储进程，预估本周延续 偏强震荡行情。 油脂：据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚 2 月 1-20 日 棕榈油产量预估减少 12.29%，其中马来半岛减少 10.74%，沙巴减少 15.23%，沙 捞越减少 11.20%，婆罗洲减少 14.19%。据马来西亚独立检验机构 AmSpec，马来 西亚 2 月 1-25 日棕榈油出口量为 922649 吨，较上月同期出口的 1099033 吨减少 16.05%。 美国环保署 EPA 将于周末前向白宫提交最终拟定的生物燃料混合配额，白宫 通常会在收到提案后约 30 天内完成审查并公布最终结果。这将符合白宫此前自 行设定的 3 月末前完成 2026 年和 2027 年可再生能源使用目标的最后期限。 美豆油受到美国生物燃料政策支撑走势偏强，而假期马棕处于供需双弱阶段， 从供需数据上来说预估二月份库存将再次下降，不过因为原库存较大，将压制近 月反弹高度。油脂板块总的来说谨慎乐观，下方空间相对有限，上方反弹高度则 需要政策引导，后续需要重点关注 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate with oil prices due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation results. It is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Before the Spring Festival, the asphalt operating rate dropped 2.8 percentage points to 21.7% month - on - month, 0.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 135,000 tons (6.5%). Venezuelan heavy crude oil supply to domestic refineries is restricted, but the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased. It is expected that domestic refineries still have raw material inventory available before March [1]. - Demand side: During the Spring Festival, most downstream industries of asphalt shut down. The road asphalt operating rate dropped 2 percentage points to 0% week - on - week. The national shipment volume decreased 14.59% to 131,700 tons week - on - week, at a low level. The asphalt market transaction was light during the Spring Festival [1]. - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, asphalt factory inventories increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The asphalt futures 2604 contract fell 0.50% to 3,358 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,341 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,373 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 4,543 to 141,450 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,300 yuan/ton. The basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 58 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil. The asphalt operating rate dropped 2.8 percentage points to 21.7% month - on - month, 0.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January to November, national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year. In 2025, from January to December, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased 6.0% year - on - year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased 2.2% year - on - year. As of the week of February 6, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of February 24, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased 2.4 percentage points to 16.4% compared with the week of February 13 [4].