【冠通研究】 盘面筑底 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 10 日 【策略分析】 今日低开低走，日内冲高回落。市场情绪观望为主，上游工厂报价下滑为主。 山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1620-1660 元/吨。印 度 NFL9 月 2 日尿素进口标购最终确认 252.26 万吨成交。基本面来看，供应端日 产高位，库存高企，市场货源充沛，故该幅度的减产并未改变宽松格局。需求端， 内需依然表现低迷，复合肥工厂上期开工大幅下滑，本周预计逐渐复产，厂内成 品库存继续去化，成品肥开始向终端转移，需求前置的缘故，后续集中备肥可能 性较低，成品库存同比偏高下，对尿素的需求增量或有限。尿素厂内库存继续累 库，较上周增加 3.77 万吨，环比增加 3.44%。综合来看，下游需求端观望情绪浓 厚，尿素库存高企且继续攀升，行情偏弱运行为主，价格超跌，盘面筑底。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1681 元/吨低开低走，日内冲高回落，最终 收于 1669 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅-1.01%，持仓量 283349 手（+15169 手）。 主力合约前二十名主。力持仓席位来看，多头+7200 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/09/10 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.37%报 3663.80 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 1.31%报 41.36 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价延续涨势，美油主力合约收涨 0.82%报 62.77 美元/桶；布伦特原油 主力合约涨 0.77%报 66.53 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数下跌 ...

【冠通研究】 原油：原油震荡下行 制作日期：2025年9月9日 【策略分析】 空单部分止盈离场 原油处于季节性出行旺季尾声，目前EIA数据显示原油超预期累库，汽油去库幅度超预期，整体 油品库存转而增加，美国炼厂开工率小幅回落0.3个百分点，但仍然较高。EIA和IEA均上调全球石油 过剩幅度。9月7日，OPEC+正式发表声明，鉴于全球经济前景稳定、市场基本面健康（反映在较低的 原油库存水平上），八国决定将自2023年4月宣布的每日165万桶额外自愿减产中，实施每日13.7万桶 的产量调整，该调整将于2025年10月起实施。此165万桶/日的产量可根据市场形势变化部分或全部恢 复，且将以循序渐进方式进行。八个欧佩克+国家将于10月5日举行下次会议，这将加剧四季度的原 油压力。沙特阿美将旗舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油10月份销往亚洲的发货价格下调1美元/桶。美国对印 度商品额外征收25%的关税，在8月27日生效，印度若放弃采购俄罗斯原油，将导致全球原油贸易流 变动，造成对中东原油现货的抢购。目前俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口俄罗斯原油，白宫 贸易顾问纳瓦罗称如果印度停止购买俄罗斯石油，可获得25%的关税优惠。关注后续俄 ...

养殖产业链数据报告-豆粕、油脂 制作日期 2025年9月9日 频度：周 最新值 前值 周环比 豆粕:43%蛋白:汇总均 价（元/吨） 3054.00 3060.00 -0.20% 豆粕:期现价差 （元/吨） -27.00 6.00 -550.00% 压榨厂:豆粕:111家样 本企业：产量 （万 吨） 162.58 167.12 -2.72% 压榨厂:豆粕:成交量 （日）（吨） 174900.00 121000.00 44.55% 豆粕:111家样本企业： 表观消费量（万吨） 156.59 164.22 -4.65% 压榨厂：豆粕:111家样 本企业：库存（万吨） 101.62 95.63 6.26% 豆粕现货主力合约基差 (元/吨） 5.57 16.14 -65.49% 豆粕 近一年走势 2025-06-23 压榨厂:豆粕:111家样本企业：产量：中国（周） 压榨厂:豆粕:成交量：中国（日） 2025-06-23 2025-06-06 豆粕:43%蛋白:汇总均价（日） 豆粕现货主力合约基差(元/吨） 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 元 ...

早盘速递 2025/9/9 5、欧佩克在一份声明中表示，宣布自愿减产但超过商定配额的欧佩克+国家将在2026年7月之前补偿477.9万桶/日的过剩产量。 热点资讯 1、据海关统计，8月份，我国货物贸易进出口总值3.87万亿元，同比增长3.5%。其中，出口2.3万亿元，增长4.8%；进口1.57万 亿元，增长1.7%，出口、进口连续3个月实现双增长。今年前8个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值29.57万亿元，同比增长3.5%。 2、商务部等三部门发布统计显示，2024年，中国对外直接投资流量1922亿美元，比上年增长8.4%，占全球份额的11.9%，较上 年提升0.5个百分点，连续13年列全球前三。2024年末，中国对外直接投资存量3.14万亿美元。 3、Mysteel数据显示，2025年09月01日-09月07日中国47港铁矿石到港总量2572.9万吨，环比减少72.1万吨；中国45港到港总量 2448.0万吨，环比减少78.0万吨；北方六港到港总量1320.0万吨，环比增加19.2万吨。 4、美国农业部（USDA）数据显示，截至9月7日当周，美国大豆优良率为64%，高于市场预期的63%，前一周为65%，上年同期为 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/09/09 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.67%报 3677.60 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 0.93%报 41.94 美元/盎司。 2. 美油主力合约收涨 0.95%，报 62.46 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨 1.08%， 报 66.21 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME 期铜 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.92%报 3639.8 美元/盎司， 周涨 3.52%；COMEX 白银期货涨 0.22%报 41.51 美元/盎司，周涨 1.93%。现货黄 金涨逾 1%，盘中史上首次站上 3600 美元/盎司整数大关，今年迄今累计涨幅达 37%。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 2.38%，报 61.97 美元/桶，周跌 3.19%；布伦特 ...

早盘速递 2025/9/8 热点资讯 1、美国劳工统计局公布，美国8月非农就业仅增长2.2万人，远不及市场预期的7.5万人。6月非农就业数据由此前的增加2.7万 人大幅下修至减少1.3万人，为自2020年以来首次出现月度就业人数萎缩。8月失业率升至4.3%，为2021年以来新高。相关数据 进一步提升美联储9月降息预期。 5、美国总统特朗普宣布，从全球国别关税中豁免金条及石墨、钨、铀等金属产品，同时将硅酮产品纳入征税范围。根据美国政 府星期五（9月5日）发布的行政令，这项关税调整将于9月8日生效。特朗普政府的对等关税正对一系列矿产品予以取消或者豁 免，其中重点包括用于航空航天、消费电子、医疗器械及其他技术领域的关键材料。 板块表现 重点关注 尿素、焦煤、多晶硅、原油、沥青 夜盘表现 非金属建材, 2.66% 贵金属, 29.03% 油脂油料, 10.93% 有色, 21.81% 软商品, 2.38% 煤焦钢矿, 14.33% 能源, 2.67% 化工, 12.17% 谷物, 1.10% 农副产品, 2.92% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The price of copper is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. The Fed's expected rate cut and a falling US dollar index support the non - ferrous metals market. Domestic copper supply is expected to tighten, while demand is expected to improve during the peak season. Attention should be paid to US non - farm payroll data [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate remains abundant, but production cut disturbances continue. The market rumors of production cuts and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectations drive up the price [10]. - **Crude Oil**: As the consumption peak season is ending and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and possible sanctions on Russian oil [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak. Given that the futures price has fallen to the lower edge of the trading range and the OPEC+ meeting this weekend may have a significant impact, it is recommended to close short positions for now [14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to trade in a range with limited downside. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently. Downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, which may bring some support [15][17]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to trade in a range with limited downside. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the开工 rate has decreased recently. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, which may boost demand [18]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations. The supply is increasing, the demand has not improved substantially, and the inventory pressure is high [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply and demand of coking coal are both in the process of recovery. Anti - involution measures are ongoing, and capital sentiment is volatile. Caution is advised when taking long or short positions [21]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to trade weakly in the short term, with possible technical rebounds later. Domestic demand is insufficient, and short - term export support is limited [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market Overview** - As of the close on September 5, most domestic futures contracts rose. Polysilicon rose 8.99% and hit the daily limit, coking coal rose over 6%, glass and coke rose over 4%. In terms of declines, eggs, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), and asphalt fell over 1%. Stock index futures rose, while treasury bond futures fell [6]. - In terms of capital flow, polysilicon 2511 had an inflow of 1.901 billion, rubber 2601 had an inflow of 901 million, and palm oil 2601 had an inflow of 556 million. The CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 4.704 billion, the CSI 1000 2509 had an outflow of 4.179 billion, and the CSI 500 2509 had an outflow of 2.692 billion [7]. **Analysis of Each Variety** - **Copper**: Due to the lower - than - expected US ADP employment data, the Fed's expected rate cut expands, and the US dollar index falls. The processing fee of smelters has decreased recently, and the sulfuric acid price is at a high level. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and domestic copper production is expected to decline. Although it is currently the off - season, copper demand is boosted by investment in power grid facilities. As the peak season approaches, demand is expected to improve [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The supply in Jiangxi has shrunk, but the increase in spodumene production has made up for the gap. The national audit agency's policy on mines in Yichun needs attention. The import volume of lithium carbonate in July decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [10]. - **Crude Oil**: It is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. EIA data shows an unexpected inventory build - up in crude oil and an unexpected de - stocking in gasoline. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. The US - India tariff issue may change the global crude oil trade flow [11]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate has declined, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has mostly fallen, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries has decreased but remains at a low level. The cost support has weakened due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production [14]. - **PP**: The downstream construction rate has rebounded slightly, and the enterprise construction rate has decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production. As the peak season approaches, downstream demand is expected to increase [15][17]. - **Plastic**: The construction rate has decreased, and the downstream construction rate has increased. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The cost has decreased due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production [18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price has increased slightly. The supply has increased, and the downstream construction rate is still low. The export outlook is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. New production capacity is being released [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: The price has risen. Most of the temporarily shut - down mines in Jinzhong have resumed production, and the inventory of mines has dropped significantly. Downstream coke production is active, and steel mills' profits have weakened. After the parade, steel mill production is expected to increase [21]. - **Urea**: The upstream factory price is weakly stable, and new orders are scarce. The Indian tender price is significantly lower than the previous one, and the tender volume has reached a record high. The daily production of urea is at a low level, but the supply pattern remains loose. The demand from compound fertilizer factories has decreased but is expected to recover. The factory inventory has increased [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for crude oil [1]. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. EIA data shows unexpected crude oil inventory build - up and significant gasoline inventory draw - down, with an overall increase in oil product inventories. The US refinery utilization rate has slightly declined. OPEC + is accelerating production increases, and there are signs of further production hikes. The supply - demand balance of crude oil is expected to weaken, so shorting on rallies is advised [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. OPEC + 8 voluntary - cut countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and may consider further production increases. EIA and IEA have both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, increasing pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The end of the consumption peak season and potential sanctions on Russia also affect the market. Attention should be paid to OPEC + meetings and potential sanctions on Russian oil [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 fell 0.03% to 482.0 yuan/ton, with a low of 478.5 yuan/ton and a high of 482.0 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2399 to 25,244 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects global oil inventory increases to exceed 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, an upward revision of 0.8 million barrels per day from last month. EIA has also lowered the average Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026. OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.29 million barrels per day and raises the 2026 rate to 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA raises the 2025 and 2026 global oil supply growth rates and lowers the 2025 demand growth rate [3]. - On September 4, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 2.031 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 3.795 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 1.681 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 1.59 million barrels [3]. - OPEC's June crude oil production was revised down by 46,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, and its July 2025 production increased by 262,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production in the week of August 29 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 13.423 million barrels per day [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.282 million barrels per day, up 3.89% year - on - year. However, weekly gasoline and diesel demand decreased, leading to a 4.45% week - on - week decrease in the weekly supply of US crude oil products [4][6].