冠通期货研究报告 --2025年11月原油月度报告 发布日期：2025年10月27日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 10月5日，OPEC+八国决定将在11月进一步增产13.7万桶/日。下次会议将于11月2日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力。 原油需求旺季结束，不过EIA数据显示美国炼厂开工低位反弹，美国原油超预期去库，成品油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而 有所减少。俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口俄罗斯原油。不过印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石 油进口的可能。在欧美制裁俄罗斯石油公司后，印度最大的私营炼油商信实工业表示将调整炼油厂的运营以满足合规要求。由于 乌克兰加大对俄罗斯石油基础设施的打击力度，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，俄罗斯将柴油和汽油出口禁令延长至年底。目前俄罗 斯原油出口量仍处高位。EIA月报预计2025年四季 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --2025年11月沥青月度报告 发布日期：2025年10月27日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落4.7个百分点至31.1%，较去年同期高了2.4个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯 数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减幅为11.0%。上周，沥青下 游各行业开工率多数上涨，其中道路沥青开工环比上涨3个百分点至32%，略超去年同期水平，受到资金和部分地区降雨制约。上 周，华东地区炼厂供应增加，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加14.73%至29.07万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比 环比小幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位。齐鲁石化炼厂稳定生产，沥青产量将略有增加。北方多地项目赶工，天气有所转好， 市场发货积极，但 ...

发布日期：2025年10月27日 冠通期货研究报告 --11月宏观经济月度报告 分析师：王静 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 10月，资本市场波动加剧，风险资产先抑后扬普遍收涨。海外，特朗普突然对中加征100%关税，市场进行"TACO交易"，西方努力斡旋俄乌，但和平 的曙光一波三折。美国政府停摆，重磅宏观数据暂停发布，降息预期则在美联储9月重启降息后的迷航中探索，整体延续着10月和12月连续降息的宽松路 径。投资者风险偏好回落，金银高位大幅回调，波动率VIX震荡反复，全球主要股市多数收涨，BDI小跌，日本新首相提振宽松预期强力打压日元，继而支 撑美元小幅反弹，非美货币走贬，大宗商品涨多跌少。国内，三季度经济数据转弱，政策对冲力度加强，举世瞩目的四中全会胜利召开，市场热议十五五 规划，并试图从中探索未来的投资机会。国内，三季度经济数据转弱，政策对冲力度加强，举世瞩目的四中全会胜利召开，市场热议十五五规划，并试图 从中探 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent increase in costs and improved macro - sentiment have driven the rebound of polyolefins, but polyolefins lack self - upward momentum. It is expected that polyolefins will mainly show weak fluctuations in November. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Sino - US trade war and anti - involution policies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastic开工率is around 86.5%, at a neutral level; PP企业开工率is around 80%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level. PE下游开工率has increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75%, and PP下游开工率has rebounded by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37%, both at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is not as expected, with the downstream purchasing willingness being insufficient [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The futures price has dropped more than the spot price, and the basis has rebounded but is still at a relatively low - neutral level. For PP, the spot price has dropped more than the futures price, and the basis has decreased to a low level, with a relatively lower fluctuation range compared to plastics [14][21]. 3.3 Plastic Production - In September 2025, the PE maintenance volume increased by 16.27% month - on - month to 53.24 million tons, and the production decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 270.65 million tons. The PE开工率decreased by 0.13 percentage points to 80.43% in September 2025, but recently it has risen to around 86.5% [25][29]. 3.4 PP Production - In September 2025, the PP maintenance volume increased by 15.12% month - on - month to 75.74 million tons, and the production decreased by 4.45% month - on - month to 334.86 million tons. The PP开工率decreased by 2.29 percentage points to 76.32% in September 2025, and recently it has dropped to around 80% [33][37]. 3.5 PE Import and Export - In September 2025, China's PE进口量was 102.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.07%, and the出口量was 9.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 63.55%. The LLDPE进口利润is in continuous loss, and the import volume is expected to remain low [43]. 3.6 PP Import and Export - In September 2025, China's PP进口量was 29.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.94%, and the出口量was 23.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.97%. The PP拉丝进口 window has been continuously closed, and the net import is expected to decline [49]. 3.7 Polyolefin Downstream - From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of plastic products was 5937.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, and the export amount was 5595.38 billion yuan, with the growth rate rising to 3.90% in September [53]. 3.8 Polyolefin Inventory - During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 27 million tons. As of October 24, it decreased by 4 million tons to 72 million tons, which is 0.5 million tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [61]. 3.9 Polyolefin Profit - The profits of coal - based and oil - based PE decreased in August. The coal - based PP process profit has fallen into a loss again, while the loss of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene processes has slightly narrowed [65].

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --11月尿素月度报告 观点： 发布日期：2025年10月27日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 核心观点 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 供应端：截至10月22日，隆众数据计算的月度日产为18.50万吨，近期日产位于18-19万吨附近波动。按照目前日均产量测算，10月份产量 预计在585万吨，高于往年同期水平。气头装置亏损加剧下，中原大化已经开启停车，临近冬季限气限产，预计气头日产下月起开启走低。 固定床装置及天然气装置延续亏损，水煤浆工艺连续下挫，近日探底后，尿素价格企稳反弹，利润企稳，尿素盘面下方有成本支撑。 需求端：本月以来，受国庆假期放假停工影响，月初工厂开工负荷明显下降，后续逐渐提升负荷，上半月天气多变，玉米收割及小麦播种 有推迟，终端走货疲软，随着时间的推进，农需进行后，工厂成品库存逐渐去化 ...

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1630 1600 30 河南 1590 1570 20 山东 1610 1570 40 山西 1500 1500 0 江苏 1610 1570 40 安徽 1590 1570 20 黑龙江 1620 1620 0 内蒙古 1610 1610 0 河北东光 1610 1590 20 山东华鲁 1630 1580 50 江苏灵谷 1640 1610 30 安徽昊源 1590 1570 20 山东05基差 -160 -151 -9 山东01基差 -190 -185 -5 河北05基差 -120 -111 -9 河北01基差 -150 -145 -5 1-5价差 72 70 2 5-9价差 -30 -34 4 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 5288 5407 -119 中东FOB 370.5 373.5 -3 美湾FOB 374.5 376.5 -2 埃及FOB 428.5 432.5 -4 波罗的海FOB 365 370 -5 巴西CFR 410 422.5 -13 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z00007 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 震荡收平 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 27 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素盘面高开低走，日内收平。周末以来，现货市场报价连续上涨，农 业经销商备肥积极，但价格上涨后略显谨慎。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒 尿素出厂价格范围在 1530-1590 元/吨，价格涨幅多在 10-30 元/吨，低端价格在 河南地区。基本面来看，隆众数据计算的月度日产为 18.50 万吨，近期日产位于 18-19 万吨附近波动。气头装置亏损加剧下，中原大化已经开启停车，临近冬季 限气限产，预计气头日产下月起开启走低。固定床装置及天然气装置延续亏损， 水煤浆工艺连续下挫，近日探底后，尿素价格企稳反弹，利润企稳，尿素盘面下 方有成本支撑。需求端，随着时间的推进，农需进行后，工厂成品库存逐渐去化， 但依然小幅高于去年前期，目前东北复合肥预计至十一月下旬逐渐投产，秋季肥 收尾中，后续开工预计逐渐提升，春季复合肥生产逐渐将开启。厂内库存累库幅 度降低，但目前依旧处于累库周期中，预计以库存以温和爬坡为主。整体来说， 厂内库存依然同比偏高，供给相对宽松，内需难以消化高位库存，农需逐渐收尾， 内需关注后续备肥情况，短期低位震荡 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The performance of domestic futures main contracts on October 27, 2025 was mixed, with some rising and some falling. The overall market showed different trends for various commodities. The prices of some commodities were affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, global economic conditions, and geopolitical events [6][7] 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: On October 27, 2025, Shanghai copper opened and closed higher. Optimistic market expectations from China - US - Malaysia talks, lower - than - expected US CPI, and copper mine supply shortages due to accidents led to an upward drive for copper prices. Although high copper prices suppressed downstream purchases, low inventory and rigid demand supported the upward trend [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and fluctuated strongly. In September 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports increased. The supply side was growing steadily, while the downstream demand for energy - storage batteries was strong, which supported the price. However, there were still market risks due to the absence of news about CATL's resumption of production [11] - **Gold and Silver**: For the domestic futures main contracts as of 15:20 on October 27, 2025, funds flowed out of Shanghai gold 2512 and Shanghai silver 2512, with outflows of 1.729 billion and 1.219 billion respectively [7] - **Nickel**: Funds flowed out of Shanghai nickel 2512, with an outflow of 299 million as of 15:20 on October 27, 2025 [7] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract rose nearly 2% on October 27, 2025 [6] Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + decided to increase production in November, which would intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The demand peak season ended, and the market was worried about demand. However, due to factors such as the US sanctions on Russian oil companies and geopolitical events, the oil price was expected to rebound from a low level [12][14] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the expected production in November decreased. The downstream construction rate increased, and the inventory was at a low level. With the rebound of crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price was expected to follow the upward trend [15] Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream construction rate of PP increased slightly, and the enterprise construction rate was at a neutral - low level. New production capacity was put into operation, and the cost increased. Although the downstream was in the peak season, the demand was less than expected. PP was expected to fluctuate weakly [16][17] - **Plastic**: The plastic construction rate increased, and the downstream construction rate was at a low - level in the same period. New production capacity was put into operation, and the cost increased. The agricultural film was in the peak season, but the demand was less than expected. Plastic was expected to fluctuate weakly [18] - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price increased, the PVC production rate decreased slightly, and the downstream production rate increased. The export expectation in the fourth quarter decreased, and the inventory was high. PVC was expected to fluctuate [20] Agricultural Products - **Eggs**: The main egg futures contract rose more than 2% on October 27, 2025 [6] - **Red Dates**: The main red date futures contract fell more than 5% on October 27, 2025 [6] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe Line**: The main contract of container shipping to Europe line fell more than 2% on October 27, 2025 [7] - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and fluctuated strongly. The import of Mongolian coal decreased, and the domestic supply was short. The demand from coking enterprises supported the price, but the demand from steel mills was pessimistic. It was expected to remain strong [21][22] - **Urea**: The urea futures closed flat on October 27, 2025. The spot price rose, and the production was expected to decrease in the future. The demand was gradually ending, and the inventory was high. It was expected to fluctuate at a low level [23] - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose, with increases of 1.24%, 0.74%, 1.76%, and 0.75% respectively [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all rose, with increases of 0.05%, 0.12%, 0.15%, and 0.32% respectively [7]

Group 1: Hot News - China's President Xi Jinping will visit South Korea from October 30 to November 1 to attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and conduct a state visit [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking opinions on iron - making and steel - making capacity replacement ratios, with a minimum of 1.5:1 in most cases and equal - volume replacement in three scenarios [2] - US CPI in September increased slightly less than expected, which may pave the way for the Fed to cut interest rates next week. The CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month in September and 3.0% year - on - year, while core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 3.0% year - on - year [2] - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur from October 25 - 26, and reached preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues [2] - The People's Bank of China will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on October 27, 2025 [2] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include coking coal, coke, soybean meal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Group 3: Holiday Overseas Market Performance - Commodity futures sector performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.95%, precious metals 30.89%, oilseeds and oils 9.67%, soft commodities 2.65%, non - ferrous metals 22.02%, coal - coking - steel - ore 13.28%, energy 3.00%, chemicals 10.74%, grains 1.13%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.66% [3] Group 4: Sector Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, but specific data is presented graphically [4] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.71% daily, 1.74% monthly, and 17.86% annually; other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index also have corresponding performance data [5] - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures have different daily, monthly, and annual performance [5] - Commodity: CRB Commodity Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind Commodity Index have their respective performance data [5] - Other: US Dollar Index and CBOE Volatility Index have corresponding performance [5] Group 6: Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents the trends of various commodities such as BDI, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., through graphs [7]

1. Overnight Night Market Trends - INTERNATIONAL PRECIOUS METALS: COMEX gold futures fell 0.45% to $4126.90 per ounce, down 2.05% for the week; COMEX silver futures dropped 0.60% to $48.41 per ounce, down 3.38% for the week [4] - CRUDE OIL: The U.S. oil main contract fell 0.57% to $61.44 per barrel, up 7.51% for the week; Brent crude's main contract declined 0.57% to $64.92 per barrel, up 7.06% for the week [5] - LONDON BASE METALS: LME copper rose 0.85% to $10947 per ton, up 3.23% for the week; LME lead increased 0.30% to $2016.50 per ton, up 2.36% for the week; LME zinc edged up 0.07% to $3019.50 per ton, up 2.93% for the week; LME aluminum dropped 0.21% to $2856.50 per ton, up 2.84% for the week; LME nickel fell 0.25% to $15325 per ton, up 1.32% for the week; LME tin declined 0.34% to $35650 per ton, up 1.75% for the week [5] - DOMESTIC FUTURES: As of the close on October 24 at 23:00, domestic futures' main contracts mostly rose. Low - sulfur fuel oil, LPG, and fuel oil rose over 1%, while asphalt, coking coal, and rapeseed meal had small increases. Synthetic rubber, caustic soda, corn, and sugar slightly declined [5] 2. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - President Xi Jinping will visit South Korea from October 30 to November 1 to attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and conduct a state visit [8] - The "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" aims to break market barriers [8] - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on October 27 [8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes enhancing the resilience and risk - resistance of the capital market [8] - Shipping indices show an increase in export container freight rates [9] - The central bank will adjust monetary policy according to economic and financial conditions and maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate [9][10] - U.S. September CPI is slightly lower than expected, paving the way for a rate cut [10] - U.S. October PMI data shows improvement [10] - China and the U.S. held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching preliminary consensus on multiple issues [10][11] Energy and Chemical Futures - Russia's central bank forecasts average oil prices for 2025 and 2026 [12] - India's Reliance Industries bought hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil due to concerns about supply disruptions [14] Metal Futures - China's non - ferrous metal industry had a good performance in the first three quarters [16] - Last week, copper, aluminum, zinc, and lead inventories decreased, while nickel and tin inventories increased [17] - This month's estimated retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars are about 2.2 million, with a decline in both month - on - month and year - on - year terms, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles may reach 60% [17] Black - Series Futures - In mid - October, steel production of key enterprises had different trends in daily output [19] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicits opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry", with specific replacement ratios and restrictions [19][21] - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise coke prices [21] - This week's total urban inventory of steel decreased [22] - Shanxi is increasing coal production to meet winter demand, with a 3.7% year - on - year increase in the first three quarters [22] Agricultural Futures - Pig - farming losses have decreased [24] - Pig and pork prices are expected to stop falling and rise slightly in the second half of the fourth quarter [25] - In the 43rd week, soybean crushing volume in oil mills exceeded expectations [25] - Imported cotton port inventory increased slightly [26] - The domestic edible vegetable oil market is expected to have stable prices, while palm oil prices may rise slightly [28] - Malaysia's October 1 - 25 palm oil exports are expected to decline 0.4% [29] 3. Financial Markets Finance - Many A - share companies released positive third - quarter reports, with some having significant profit growth [31] - Fund managers will adjust investment strategies based on third - quarter reports, focusing on technology stocks [31] - As of the end of the third quarter, social security funds held shares in 135 stocks, with new entries, increases, and decreases in positions, and increased investment in technology sectors [32] - Many A - share companies were surveyed by institutions, with technology stocks being popular [34] - Many companies distributed dividends, and some will distribute more in the future [34] - Nearly 2000 public funds' third - quarter reports show that innovation - related assets are the main allocation [34] - The market sentiment has stabilized, and the subsequent adjustment space may be limited [34] - Hong Kong stocks' "B - series" varieties are being sold by pharmaceutical fund managers, and innovation - drug funds are entering the stock - selection stage [35] Industry - A draft regulatory guideline for public fund performance comparison benchmarks may be released soon, and many funds have adjusted their benchmarks this year [36] - Banks have raised the minimum investment threshold for gold accumulation, and short - term gold price fluctuations may be normal [38] - Gold jewelry brands have raised prices, mainly to increase processing fees and maintain stable margins [38] - Many real - estate companies have made breakthroughs in debt restructuring [38] - As of September, China's power generation installed capacity increased, with significant growth in solar and wind power [39] - The flu vaccine vaccination season has arrived, with different price trends for different vaccines [39] - Multiple paper companies will raise the price of white cardboard from November 1 [39] Overseas - The U.S. and Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia reached trade - related agreements [41][42] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary believes inflation will continue to decline, and the government shutdown is eroding the economy [42] - The U.S. government shutdown may last until the end of November [43] - The IMF President suggests that ASEAN economies strengthen their fundamentals and predicts that AI will affect a large proportion of jobs [43] International Stock Markets - European countries will implement winter time starting Monday, adjusting trading and data - release times [45] Bonds - As of October 24, the issuance scale of securities firms' science and technology innovation bonds this year reached 59.17 billion yuan, and it is expected to continue growing [46] 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events Economic Data - Various economic data will be released on October 27, including Japan's September corporate service price index, China's September industrial enterprise profits, etc. [48] Events - The central bank has 7000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF and 189 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing [50] - The governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia will participate in a talk [50] - There are new stock subscriptions and company earnings reports [50] - Multiple important events are scheduled, such as the East Asia Cooperation Leaders' Series Meetings, the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, etc. [50]