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铁矿石库存周度数据-20250725
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 02:09
本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考,并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发 的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送,版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可,任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版,复制,引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发,须注明出处为冠 通期货股份有限公司。 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号:F0235424/Z0000771 铁矿石库存周度数据 研究咨询部 下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 13790.38 315.15 8885.22 301.1 2371.2 40.68 242.23 83.46 90.81 63.64 -21.00 上期 13785.21 322.74 8822.16 301.25 2662.1 40.25 242.44 83.46 90.89 60.17 -17.50 周变动 5.17 -7.59 63.06 -0.15 -290.9 ...
冠通期货早盘速递-20250725
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 00:42
Report Summary 1. Hot News - On July 25, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations with a one - year term [2] - As of now, the central budget investment in 2025 has been basically allocated, supporting various fields such as modern industrial system and infrastructure [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will accelerate the research and listing of power futures [2] - The EU has a 93 - billion - euro anti - tariff plan against the US, India aims to reach trade agreements with the US and has signed one with the UK [2] - Trump asked Powell to cut interest rates, and Trump's ally sued Powell to require FOMC to hold public meetings [3] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, glass, coke, ethylene glycol, and pulp [4] 3. Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.54%, precious metals 28.82%, oilseeds 12.19%, non - ferrous metals 2.90%, soft commodities 19.60%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.93%, energy 3.22%, chemicals 11.79%, grains 1.15%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.88% [4] 4. Major Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65%, the S&P 500 0.07%, and the Hang Seng Index 0.51% [6] - In the fixed - income category, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures declined [6] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index rose 0.17%, WTI crude oil 1.46%, and London spot gold fell 0.55% [6] - Other assets: the US dollar index rose 0.29%, and the CBOE volatility remained unchanged [6]
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250725
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 00:42
资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/07/25 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 周四夜盘收盘,国内期货主力合约涨跌互现,玻璃涨超 6%,焦煤涨超 5%, 纯碱涨超 4%,氧化铝、20 号胶、乙二醇涨超 2%。跌幅方面,铁矿石跌超 1%。 地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌,COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.77%报 3371.3 美元/盎司, COMEX 白银期货跌 0.55%报 39.285 美元/盎司。 3. 国际油价小幅走强,美油主力合约收涨 1.39%,报 66.16 美元/桶;布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.96%,报 68.48 美元/桶。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘全线下跌,LME 期铜跌 0.77%报 9854.50 美元/吨,LME 期 锌跌 0.75%报 2840.50 美元/吨,LME 期镍跌 0.66%报 15470.00 美元/吨。 5. 国际农产品期货多数上涨,美大豆涨 0.15%,美玉米涨 0.82%,美豆油涨 0.93%,美豆粕跌 0.80%,美小麦涨 0.23%。 投资有风险, ...
冠通期货:塑料策略:震荡上行
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 11:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips or implementing a 09 - 01 reverse spread. Although there are issues such as high inventory and low - season demand in the plastics industry, the upcoming release of a new round of stability - growth work plans for key industries and the elimination of old and backward devices are expected to improve market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 24, the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high. The coal price has risen significantly due to production checks. With new capacity coming on - stream and restart of some devices, the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. Considering the upcoming policies and market sentiment improvement, it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2509 contract oscillated upward with a decrease in positions, closing at 7385 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The trading volume decreased by 16,764 lots to 371,617 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 30 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 7160 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9280 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7620 - 8250 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On July 24, the number of overhaul devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of July 18, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%. The agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Thursday decreased by 15,000 tons to 750,000 tons, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high [4] - Raw Materials: Brent crude oil's October contract oscillated around $68/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $830/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $820/ton [4]
冠通每日交易策略-20250724
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 10:25
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期:2025 年 7 月 24 日 热点品种 焦煤: 焦煤今日高开低走,日内拉涨,触及涨停。现货方面,山西市场(介休)主流价 格报价 1110 元/吨,较上个交易日+20 元/吨;蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 907 元/吨, 较上个交易日+7 元/吨。基本面来看,6 月份焦煤进口数量环比增加,较上月增 加 172.15 万吨,其中蒙煤进口增加 36 万吨。矿山日产增加而洗煤厂日产下降, 国家能源局拟于近期在重点产煤省(区)组织开展煤矿生产情况核查工作的消息 持续发酵,本期洗煤厂开工数与产量均有下降,安全月检查与煤矿核查工作同时 进行,预计供应端将环比缩量。库存端,焦煤库存向下传导,矿山库存去化,钢 厂及独立焦企焦煤库存增加,焦煤交投情绪积极。焦炭三轮提涨落地,四轮提涨 将于下周一继续,下游钢厂盈利尚可,上周铁水产量转为上涨,下游需求提振煤 炭价格。7 月 19 日,雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正式开工,项目总投资约 1.2 万 亿,投资规模是三峡水电站的 5 倍,建设周期约 20 ...
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250724
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 00:59
2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌,COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.34%报 3397.50 美元/盎司, COMEX 白银期货跌 0.09%报 39.52 美元/盎司。 3. 国际油价窄幅震荡,美油主力合约收涨 0.17%,报 65.42 美元/桶;布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.10%,报 68.66 美元/桶。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数上涨,LME 期锡涨 2.48%报 34750.00 美元/吨,LME 期 铅涨 0.87%报 2028.50 美元/吨,LME 期铜涨 0.14%报 9933.50 美元/吨。 5. 国际农产品期货多数下跌,美大豆跌 0.30%,美玉米跌 0.06%,美豆油涨 0.87%,美豆粕跌 0.61%,美小麦跌 1.55%。 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/7/24 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 周三夜盘收盘,国内期货主力合约涨跌互现,焦煤涨超 4%,沪锡、甲醇涨超 1%。跌幅方面,氧化铝、豆粕、纯碱、 ...
冠通期货早盘速递-20250724
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 00:59
早盘速递 2025/7/24 板块表现 重点关注 焦煤、纯碱、焦炭、甲醇、纸浆 夜盘表现 -3.00 -2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 板块涨跌幅(%) 非金属建材, 2.55% 贵金属, 29.66% 油脂油料, 12.09% 软商品, 2.84% 有色, 19.00% 煤焦钢矿, 14.67% 能源, 3.10% 化工, 12.09% 谷物, 1.13% 农副产品, 2.88% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率(右轴) 热点资讯 1. 7月23日,国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁主持召开企业座谈会,围绕科学编制"十五五"规划,听取关于国企民企协同发展的 意见建议。郑栅洁表示,国家发展改革委将健全国企民企协同发展的体制机制,推动整治内卷式竞争、拓展产业链供应链合作 、促进科技创新、完善公司治理和国际化经营服务等, ...
冠通每日交易策略-20250723
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 10:29
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期:2025 年 7 月 23 日 热点品种 焦煤: 焦煤今日高开高走,日内偏强震荡,触及涨停。现货方面,山西市场(介休)主 流价格报价 1080 元/吨,较上个交易日持平;蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 900 元/吨, 较上个交易日+50 元/吨。基本面来看,6 月份焦煤进口数量环比增加,较上月增 加 172.15 万吨,其中蒙煤进口增加 36 万吨。国家能源局拟于近期在重点产煤省 (区)组织开展煤矿生产情况核查工作的消息持续发酵,本期洗煤厂开工数与产量 均有下降,安全月检查与煤矿核查工作同时进行,预计供应端将环比缩量。库存 端,焦煤库存向下传导,矿山库存去化,钢厂及独立焦企焦煤库存增加,焦煤交 投情绪积极。焦炭二轮提涨,下游钢厂盈利尚可,上周铁水产量转为上涨,下游 需求提振煤炭价格。7 月 19 日,雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正式开工,项目总投 资约 1.2 万亿,投资规模是三峡水电站的 5 倍,建设周期约 20 年。整体来说, 反内卷举措持续加码,近日国家能源局开启煤矿核查 ...
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250723
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 00:58
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity market experienced a rare daily limit surge on Tuesday, with the main contracts of six varieties, including glass, soda ash, coking coal, coke, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, closing at the daily limit. The core driving force for this rally is the continuous release of the "anti-involution" policy signal by the state, combined with the coal mine production inspection notice circulated on the same day, which triggered expectations of supply tightening [2][46]. - The international precious metal futures generally closed higher, while international oil prices slightly declined. London's base metals mostly rose, and international agricultural product futures showed mixed performance [3][4][5]. - In the financial market, A-shares continued to rise, and the Hong Kong stock market also showed an upward trend. The science and technology innovation board celebrated its 6th anniversary, and Central Huijin increased its holdings of ETFs on a large scale in the second quarter [30]. - Overseas, there are various events and statements, including trade negotiations, comments on the Federal Reserve's policies and personnel, and corporate financial reports [10][11][43]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night Market Trends - Domestic commodity market: Six varieties' main contracts closed at the daily limit, and the black series continued to rise at night, with coking coal up 11% and coke up 5.29% [2]. - International precious metal futures: COMEX gold futures rose 1.10% to $3444.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.83% to $39.66 per ounce [3]. - International oil prices: WTI crude oil main contract fell 0.76% to $65.45 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.66% to $68.75 per barrel [4]. - London base metals: Most rose, with LME zinc up 0.53%, LME copper up 0.39%, LME tin up 0.32%, and LME aluminum up 0.21% [4]. - International agricultural product futures: Mixed performance, with US soybeans down 0.17%, US corn down 1.18%, US soybean oil down 0.59%, US soybean meal up 1.13%, and US wheat up 1.34% [5]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The "Regulations on Rural Highways" will be implemented on September 15, 2025, aiming to promote the high-quality development of rural highways [8]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. The balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [8]. - The current market has no obvious unilateral expectation of RMB appreciation or depreciation, and market transactions are rational and orderly [9]. - There are various international events and statements, including trade negotiations, comments on the Federal Reserve's policies and personnel [10][11][12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The next round of China-US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil [15]. - As of the week of July 21, the social inventory of domestic asphalt increased by 0.3%, and the factory inventory decreased by 2.6% [15]. Metal Futures - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will support the stable operation and high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry [17][18]. - China's alumina exports in June 2025 decreased by 17.71% month-on-month but increased by 8.95% year-on-year [18]. - In May 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons, and from January to May, the surplus was 272,000 tons [18]. Black Series Futures - Some steel mills plan to raise the price of wet-quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry-quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on July 23 [20]. - The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports in China increased by 722,500 tons compared with last Monday [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - Russia reduced its wheat production and export volume forecasts for 2025 [22]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June 2025 remained high, but the inventory reached an 18-month high [23]. - It is expected that the new cotton yield per mu in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [23]. - Various other agricultural product data, including soybean, pig, and sugar production and trade information [25][26][28]. Financial Market Finance - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.62% to 3581.86 points, and the market turnover expanding to 1.93 trillion yuan [30]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.54% to 25,130.03 points, and the southbound capital had a net inflow of HK$2.717 billion [30]. - The science and technology innovation board celebrated its 6th anniversary, with 589 companies listed, raising a total of 925.7 billion yuan in IPOs and 186.7 billion yuan in refinancing [30]. - Central Huijin increased its holdings of ETFs by over 200 billion yuan in the second quarter [32]. - Overseas institutions mainly surveyed companies in the electronics, machinery, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metal industries in July [32]. - Zhongyou Insurance triggered a mandatory tender offer by buying 726,000 shares of Green Power Environmental Protection H shares [32]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange took regulatory measures against abnormal trading behavior in *ST Yazhen [32]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company will launch the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Private Enterprise Index and the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Private Enterprise Strategy Index on July 23 [33]. - SenseTime plans to enter the field of embodied intelligence [33]. Industry - The National Data Administration has guided the construction of data annotation bases in 7 cities and plans to layout data industry agglomeration areas in the second half of the year [34]. - 127 domestic games and 7 imported games obtained game licenses in July [36]. - The game "Late Ming: Feather of the Abyss" topped the Steam bestseller list [36]. - The news of "Beijing banning fuel vehicles from ride-hailing platforms" was false [36]. - China's shipbuilding industry maintained its global leading position in the first half of the year [36]. - Telecommunication business revenue in the first half of the year was 905.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1% [37]. Overseas - Trump called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and said that Fed Chairman Powell would leave office soon [38]. - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that tariff revenue was "huge" and supported Powell to complete his term [38]. - Various international events, including trade negotiations, policy statements, and corporate financial reports [38][40][43]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising 0.4%, the S&P 500 rising 0.06%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.39% [43]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX falling 1.09%, the French CAC40 falling 0.69%, and the UK FTSE 100 rising 0.12% [43]. - Coca-Cola's second-quarter adjusted revenue and earnings per share were better than expected [43]. - General Motors' second-quarter revenue and net profit declined [44]. - Lockheed Martin's second-quarter net sales and operating profit were lower than expected, and it lowered its full-year earnings per share forecast [45]. Commodities - Similar to the overnight night market trends, the domestic commodity market had a daily limit surge, and international precious metal, oil, and base metal futures showed different performances [2][3][4][46]. - Russia maintained its forecast for grain production and export volume [48]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was weak, with treasury bond futures closing down [49]. - As of the end of June, overseas institutions held 4.23 trillion yuan of interbank market bonds, accounting for about 2.5% of the total [50]. - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank successfully issued a 20 billion yuan panda bond [50]. - Japanese government bond yields attracted record foreign capital inflows [52]. - US bond yields declined across the board [52]. Foreign Exchange - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the US dollar in the first half of the year, and the market had no obvious unilateral expectation [53]. - The onshore RMB against the US dollar rose 12 points, and the offshore RMB rose 5 points [54][55]. - The US dollar index fell 0.49%, and most non-US currencies rose [54]. Upcoming Events - There are various events scheduled for July 23, including central bank operations, press conferences, and industry exhibitions [56].
冠通期货早盘速递-20250723
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 00:58
第 1 页,共 3 页 板块持仓 (800,000) (700,000) (600,000) (500,000) (400,000) (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动 2025-07-22 2025-07-21 2025-07-18 2025-07-17 2025-07-16 早盘速递 2025/7/23 热点资讯 1.今日凌晨,社交媒体平台"X"上流传着一封所谓的"美联储主席鲍威尔辞职信",内容是"鲍威尔决定辞去美联储主席职 务,从7月22日开始生效"。美国财经媒体记者引述消息人士称,一些MAGA账号上流传的鲍威尔辞职信是假的。美国联邦住房 金融署署长Pulte则称:"我相信鲍威尔很快就会辞职,但今天不是那一天。" 2.中国人民银行统计,2025年二季度末,金融机构人民币各项贷款余额268.56万亿元,同比增长7.1%,上半年 ...