Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ plans to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended, but EIA data shows that US refinery operations have rebounded from a low level, and US crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, as well as refined oil inventories. Overall, the inventory of oil products has decreased. There is a possibility that India will gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. Russia has extended the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year, but its crude oil exports remain high. EIA and IEA reports suggest an increase in global oil inventories and a worsening supply glut. Despite the current supply - surplus situation, crude oil prices have fallen significantly since October. Recently, due to factors such as new rounds of economic and trade consultations between China and the US, changes in the US attitude towards Russia, and the escalation of the military stand - off between the US and Venezuela, crude oil prices are expected to continue to rebound from a low level. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the next meeting will be held on November 2. The end of the peak oil demand season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and Sino - US trade uncertainties have raised concerns about oil demand. Although the market is in a supply - surplus situation, factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the escalation of the US - Venezuela military stand - off may cause oil prices to rebound from a low level [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 2.40% to 464.9 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 462.5 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 471.3 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2089 to 41,065 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and has raised the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. It has also raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.80 per barrel to $68.64 per barrel, but expects the price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and keep the 2026 average at $51.43 per barrel. OPEC has raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and maintained the 2026 growth rate at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has lowered the 2025 global oil demand growth rate by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, and raised the 2025 and 2026 global oil supply growth rates by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and 2.4 million barrels per day respectively, intensifying the supply glut [3]. Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending October 17, US crude oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels, far lower than the expected increase of 1.205 million barrels and 3.67% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.147 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 1.479 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 770,000 barrels. OPEC's August crude oil production was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its September production increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of October 10 decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day, close to the highest level in history [4]. Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.474 million barrels per day, 2.24% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 0.01% to 8.454 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.587 million barrels per day, 3.61% lower than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 9.12% to 3.847 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 4.011 million barrels per day, 0.19% higher than the same period last year. Although gasoline and diesel demand decreased, an increase in other oil products drove a 1.46% week - on - week increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [5][7].

【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2025年10月24日 【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比回升0.52个百分点至52.37%，处于历年同期偏低水平。其中塑编开工率环比回 升0.14个百分点至44.4%，塑编订单环比略有增加，略低于去年同期。10月24日，检修装置变动不大， PP企业开工率维持在80%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例下跌至24%左右。今年国庆石 化累库幅度与往年类似，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，近日中美即将进行新一轮 的经贸磋商，美国制裁俄罗斯重要石油公司，美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，原油价格低位反弹幅 度较大。供应上，新增产能45万吨/年中海油宁波大榭PP二期二线8月底已经投产，另一条产线45万 吨/年中海油宁波大榭PP二期一线9月初投产，40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修 装置有所增加。天气有所好转，下游逐步进入金九银十旺季，塑编开工稳定，PP下游多数行业有继 续走高预期，只是目前旺季需求不及预期，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，国庆节后备货需求阶段性减 弱，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。中美双方相互对对方船舶收取船舶特别港务费，对于经济增长的 担忧加剧。PP产业还 ...

【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格上涨25元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.12个百分点至76.57%， PVC开工率略有减少，但仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续提升，超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报 价下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50美元/ 吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出口 仍较好，目前出口签单暂未明显走弱。本周社会库存略有增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。 2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施 工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比继续回落，仍处于近年同期最低水 平附近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上， 50万吨/年的万华化学8月份已经量产，40万吨/年的天津渤化8月份试生产后，预计9月底稳定生产， 20万吨/年的青岛海湾9月上旬已投产，目前接近满负 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market shows an upward - trending volatility. The supply side has a lower - than - normal capacity utilization rate, and the downstream industry's capacity utilization rate has mostly increased. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries is at a historical low. Considering factors such as international political and economic situations and the current state of the domestic market, it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt capacity utilization rate dropped 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In October, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 268.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons month - on - month (a 0.1% decline) and an increase of 35.0 million tons year - on - year (a 15.0% increase). Shandong Shengxing, Guangzhou Petrochemical and other refineries are under maintenance [1][4]. - Demand side: This week, the capacity utilization rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The capacity utilization rate of road asphalt rose 3 percentage points to 32% week - on - week, slightly higher than the same period last year, but is restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 2.7%, still in negative growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to September 2025 was 1.1%, down from 2.0% from January to August [1][4]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 24, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased 0.6 percentage points to 16.0% week - on - week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - Market shipment: This week, the refinery supply in East China increased, and the national shipment volume increased 14.73% week - on - week to 29.07 million tons, at a neutral level. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, and the market is actively shipping, but funds are still a constraint [1]. - International situation: There will be a new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States. The US has imposed sanctions on important Russian oil companies, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, causing a significant rebound in crude oil prices from a low level [1]. - Suggestion: The basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level in recent days and is currently at a moderately high level. It is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.92% to 3,299 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,279 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,049 to 195,746 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 3,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract has dropped to 51 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of asphalt dropped 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand - related investment data: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 2.7%, slightly up from - 3.3% from January to August. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to September 2025 was 1.1%, down from 2.0% from January to August [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but with a high base, it was 233.5 billion yuan less year - on - year [4].

资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 【冠通期货研究报告】 关注经济数据发布 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 24 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，日内上涨。虽美国政府停摆暂未结束，但今日晚间将公布美国 CPI 数据，市场普遍预期其不会对美联储降息带来过度的影响。供给方面，国家统计局 数据显示，中国 2025 年 9 月精炼铜（电解铜）产量为 126.6 万吨，同比增长 10.1%，环 比下降 2.7%；1—9 月累计产量为 1112.5 万吨，同比增长 10.0%。铜矿端扰动限制铜价 跌幅，前期印尼铜矿事故对市场的利多支撑暂未消除，本周铜精矿港口库存数量去化， 目前铜精矿库存同比去年大幅偏低。冶炼厂检修仍在继续，产出水平低，目前长单进入 初步探讨阶段，铜矿贸易商手持货源偏少。目前铜处于银十旺季阶段，但受宏观刺激大 幅上涨的铜价格难以被下游接受，市场交投气氛弱，近日价格下跌后带动需求或环比有 好转，国内电力电网及新能源稳定发展，为需求提供刚性支撑，且美联储降息周期内， 全球工业需求前景乐观。综合来看，铜作为贵金属平替资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The recent cost increase has driven the rebound of plastics, but the plastics themselves lack upward momentum. It is expected that plastics will mainly fluctuate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On October 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. After the National Day, the stocking demand weakened periodically, and downstream enterprises were not willing to purchase. The cost of crude oil has rebounded significantly at a low level, and new production capacity has been put into operation. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastics industry, which will affect the subsequent market [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2601 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6957 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7017 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6969 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.07%. The open interest decreased by 2302 lots to 529187 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6910 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9070 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7260 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 24, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, and orders and raw material inventories have increased, but are still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders have increased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons month - on - month. On Friday, it decreased by 40,000 tons to 720,000 tons, 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $65/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $770/ton month - on - month, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $780/ton month - on - month [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 温和上涨 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 24 日 手。其中，宏源期货净多单+691 手、中泰期货净多单+779 手；国泰君安净空单 +2256 手，中信期货净空单-4124 手。 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 【行情分析】 今日尿素盘面高开高走，日内偏强。期货连续偏红，市场跟涨购买心理明显， 市场交投情绪尚可。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1520-1560 元/吨，价格涨幅多在 10-20 元/吨，河北工厂报价仍偏高端。基本面 来看，日产趋势小幅减少，但后续依旧有装置复产及新装置的投产，天然气限气 前，日产暂时不会大幅缩减，原料端动力煤价格持续上行，尿素成本端煤炭价格 走强，天然气原料企业连续亏损，中原大化已因亏损问题而检修停车，即将进入 供暖季节，预计天然气企业开工后续成下降趋势。需求端，复合肥工厂本期增加 开工负荷，环比提升 3.53%附近，同比去年偏低 2.03%，且成品库存依然在持续 去化阶段，东北地 ...

| 2025/10/24 | 一周走势 | 本期 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 指标 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 河北 | 1600 | 1590 | 10 | 河南 | 1570 | 1550 | 20 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 山东 | 1570 | 1550 | 20 | 山西 | 1500 | 1480 | 20 | 主流地区市场价 | | | | | | | | | | | | （元/吨） | 江苏 | 1570 | 1550 | 20 | 安徽 | 1570 | 1560 | 10 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑龙江 | 1620 | 1620 | 0 | 内蒙古 | 1610 | 1610 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 河北东光 | 1590 | 1560 | 30 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 24, 2025, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Some commodities like fuel oil, container shipping European routes, and eggs had significant increases, while others like red dates and polysilicon declined. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures mostly fell. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, with some showing upward trends but facing pressure, some in a state of supply - demand balance, and others with uncertain outlooks due to various factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events [7]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 24, domestic futures main contracts showed more gains than losses. Fuel oil, container shipping European routes, and eggs rose over 3%, international copper nearly 3%, and Shanghai copper and SC crude oil over 2%. Red dates fell over 4%, polysilicon over 1%, and rebar nearly 1%. Stock index futures rose, with CSI 1000 rising 2.41% leading the way, while treasury bond futures mostly fell, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures falling 0.24% the most. In terms of capital flow, Shanghai copper 2512 had an inflow of 2.504 billion yuan, while CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 5.183 billion yuan [7]. Market Analysis - **Shanghai Copper**: Opened high and went high, rising during the day. September 2025 refined copper production was 1.266 million tons, up 10.1% year - on - year and down 2.7% month - on - month. 1 - 9 months cumulative production was 11.125 million tons, up 10.0% year - on - year. Copper price is supported by rigid demand and expected tight supply, but the high price is hard for downstream to accept. The price trend is still upward but with pressure, so be cautious about chasing the rise [9][10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened high and went high, oscillating strongly. Battery - grade and industrial - grade prices both rose 600 yuan/ton. Supply is growing steadily, and demand from the downstream battery industry is strong. The inventory in September was significantly reduced, and the price is supported by fundamentals [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + will increase production in November, increasing supply pressure. The demand peak season is over, but US refinery operations rebounded, and inventories decreased. The price is expected to rebound at a low level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: Supply decreased slightly in October. Downstream industry operations mostly rose, and national shipments increased. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased slightly. With the rebound of crude oil prices, the basis in Shandong has dropped significantly. It is recommended to observe the asphalt futures price cautiously [14]. - **PP**: Downstream operations rebounded slightly, and the enterprise operation rate was around 80%. New production capacity was put into operation, and recent maintenance increased. Cost rose due to the rebound of crude oil prices. The demand in the peak season was less than expected, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operation rate was around 86.5%, and downstream operations rose. New production capacity was put into operation. The demand in the peak season was less than expected, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price rose. Supply decreased slightly, and downstream operations continued to rise. Export expectations weakened in the fourth quarter, and social inventory was high. New production capacity was put into operation. It is expected to oscillate in the near future [19]. - **Coking Coal**: Opened high and went high, oscillating strongly. Mongolian coal imports decreased, and domestic supply was short. Demand from coke enterprises supported the price, but downstream steel mills' profits shrank. Pay attention to major conferences and Mongolian coal imports [20][21]. - **Urea**: The futures price rose, and the spot market followed. Daily production decreased slightly, and the cost increased. Demand from compound fertilizer factories increased, and inventory accumulation was slow. The market is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to policy changes [22].

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 84.94 84.93 0.01 开工率 76.350 76.350 0.000 产量 74.06 74.05 0.01 产线条数 226 226 0 重质产量 41 41.55 -0.55 产量 112.8925 112.8925 0 轻质产量 33.06 32.5 0.56 厂内库存 170.21 170.05 0.16 库存 6661.3 6427.56 233.74 重质库存 93.45 94.07 -0.62 库存可用天数 28.3 27.3 1 轻质库存 76.76 75.98 0.78 库存可用天数 14.11 14.1 0.01 产销率 99.78 94.5 5.28 天然气利润 -120.56 -79.84 -40.72 氨碱法毛利 -32.4 -29.7 -2.7 石油焦利润 48.23 91.09 -42.86 联产法毛利 -161 -129.5 -31.5 煤制气利润 113.23 139.67 -26.44 基差 -50 -70 20 基差 18 43 -25 1-5价差 83 90 -7 1-5价差 148 137 11 品种套利 纯 ...