【冠通研究】 上行乏力，尾盘收平 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 5 日 【策略分析】 今日高开低走，尾盘收平。上游工厂报价弱稳为主，新单成交不畅。山东、 河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1650-1680 元/吨。印度 NFL9 月 2 日尿素进口标购价格明显低于上一标，东海岸最低报价为 462.45 美元/吨 CFR，较上一标价格低 69.55 美元/吨，西海岸最低报价为 464.7 美元/吨 CFR， 较上一标价格低 65.3 美元/吨，此次印标标购投标总量达 560 万吨，创历史新 高。基本面来看，近期尿素日产维持在 18-19 万吨以内波动，位于近几月以来的 最低位置，但目前均属于正常夏季检修，该幅度的减产并未改变宽松格局。需求 端，受阅兵及重大会议的影响，复合肥工厂本期开工大幅下滑，预计本周开始逐 渐复产，厂内成品库存继续去化，成品肥开始向终端转移，目前看后续集中备肥 可能性较低，成品库存同比偏高下，对尿素的需求增量或有限，下周预计开工负 荷将有提高，东北到货数量本周小幅回升，后续东北备肥将陆续缓慢开启。工厂 待发流向不足，尿素厂内库存继续累库，较上周增加 0.92 万吨，环比增加 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the US dollar index has declined due to the significant difference between the actual and expected increase in the US ADP employment in August and the expansion of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which supports the non - ferrous metal market. Domestically, copper supply is expected to tighten as the smelter processing fees have decreased, the sulfuric acid price is at a high level, 5 smelters have maintenance plans in September, and the import of copper will impact the domestic market. Although it is currently the off - season for copper consumption, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities has driven copper demand, and there is an expectation of improved demand during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Therefore, it is expected that copper prices will be mainly oscillating and strengthening, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm payroll data [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The US ADP employment in August increased by 54,000, far from the market expectation of 65,000, and the July data was revised to 104,000. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have expanded, leading to a decline in the US dollar index. The smelter processing fees have decreased after a short - term rebound, and the sulfuric acid price is expected to be at a high level, which will reduce the profit compensation for smelters. Five smelters have maintenance plans in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline month - on - month. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market, squeezing the domestic market and affecting pricing. As of July 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.3745 million tons. Although it is the off - season, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities has driven copper demand. Currently, the downstream's willingness to buy is poor after the copper price rises, and the premium is under pressure, but there is an expectation of improved demand during the peak seasons [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and rose during the day, closing at 80,140 yuan/ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and in South China was 40 yuan/ton. On September 4, 2025, the LME official price was 9,885 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 72 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of the latest data on August 29, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - 41.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.12 US cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 18,900 tons, a decrease of 902 tons from the previous period. As of September 4, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 80,100 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 158,000 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 302,700 short tons, an increase of 18,344 short tons from the previous period [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. As the asphalt futures price has dropped to the lower edge of the shock range and the OPEC+ meeting on the weekend has a significant impact, it is recommended to temporarily stop profiting and exit short positions in asphalt [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The asphalt production rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 28.1% week-on-week, still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. In September, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production volume of 2.686 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 273,000 tons (11.3%) and a year-on-year increase of 683,000 tons (34.1%). The downstream construction rates of asphalt mostly declined this week, and the national shipment volume decreased by 0.11% week-on-week to 263,500 tons, at a moderately low level. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week-on-week but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The cost support of asphalt has weakened, and it is recommended to temporarily stop profiting and exit short positions in asphalt [1] Futures and Spot Market - The asphalt futures contract 2510 fell 0.91% to 3,467 yuan/ton today, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,441 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,480 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 16,035 to 54,826 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract rose to 53 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the production rates of some major refineries in South China and Southwest China decreased slightly, and the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 28.1% week-on-week, still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. From January to July, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with that from January to June 2025 but was still negative. As of the week of September 5, the downstream construction rates of asphalt mostly declined, and the road asphalt construction rate decreased by 0.83 percentage points to 27.5% week-on-week, reaching the lowest level in the same period in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in some areas [4] Inventory - As of the week of September 5, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 14.5% compared with the week of August 29, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - No relevant content found Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Inventory Data - Port total inventory this period is 13,825.32, up 62.30 from last period [2] - Steel mill imported ore inventory this period is 8,939.87, down 67.32 from last period [2] - Trade ore inventory this period is 9,007.96, down 53.06 from last period [2] - Brazilian ore inventory this period is 5,118.96, up 82.2 from last period [2] - Australian ore inventory this period is 5,876.02, down 102.29 from last period [2] - Coarse powder inventory this period is 10,848.69, up 135.53 from last period [2] - Lump ore inventory this period is 1,584.09, down 69.81 from last period [2] - Pellet inventory this period is 284.38, up 1.01 from last period [2] - Concentrate inventory this period is 1,108.16, down 4.43 from last period [2] Supply and Demand Data - Daily average port cargo clearance this period is 317.78, down 0.86 from last period [2] - Steel mill imported ore daily consumption this period is 280.67, down 15.43 from last period [2] - Arrival volume this period is 2,526, up 132.70 from last period [2] - Domestic iron concentrate powder production this period is 38.2, down 1.33 from last period [2] - Daily average hot metal production this period is 228.84, down 11.29 from last period [2] - Steel mill blast furnace start - up rate this period is 80.4%, down 2.80% from last period [2] - Steel mill capacity utilization rate this period is 85.79%, down 4.23% from last period [2] - Steel mill profitability rate this period is 61.04%, down 2.6% from last period, but the profit margin increased by 3.00 [2]

Group 1: Hot News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1000 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5, 2025, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming to promote high - quality development in areas such as photovoltaics and address "involution - style" competition [2] - The Ministry of Commerce decided to implement anti - circumvention measures against US - imported optical fiber products starting from September 4, 2025 [2] - The Coke Association believes that current coke does not meet the conditions for price reduction, and enterprises will jointly limit production to maintain prices [2] Group 2: Plate Performance - Key focus: Coking coal, coke, Shanghai silver, stainless steel, Shanghai gold [3] - Night session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.69%, precious metals rose 29.55%, oilseeds rose 10.84%, non - ferrous metals rose 21.35%, soft commodities rose 2.42%, coal - coking - steel - ore rose 14.38%, energy rose 2.77%, chemicals rose 11.98%, grains rose 1.09%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.94% [3] Group 3: Plate Position - There are data on the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, etc. [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.25%, a monthly decline of 2.39%, and an annual increase of 12.36% [5] - The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.83%, a monthly increase of 0.65%, and an annual increase of 10.55% [5] Fixed - income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.42%, and an annual decrease of 0.61% [5] Commodity - The CRB commodity index had a daily decline of 0.77%, a monthly decline of 0.66%, and an annual increase of 1.22% [5] Other - The US dollar index had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.44%, and an annual decrease of 9.41% [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the domestic and international futures markets, important macro - economic news, and the trends of various financial markets including stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also provides inventory data for different industries and corporate earnings reports, reflecting the complex and changeable situation of the current market [3][24][42]. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with Jiaomei, coke, methanol, and rubber rising over 1%, while stainless steel, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and silver falling over 1% [3]. - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.91% at $3602.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.77% at $41.32 per ounce. The Fed has intensified internal differences on monetary policy [3]. - Oil prices were pressured by OPEC's production increase expectations. WTI crude futures fell 0.98% to $63.34 per barrel, and Brent crude futures fell 1.11% to $66.85 per barrel. High - grade expects Brent crude to fall to $50 in 2026 due to oversupply [3]. - London base metals all declined, with LME aluminum down 1.11% at $2590.00 per ton, LME copper down 0.84% at $9891.50 per ton, etc. [3]. Important Information Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on September 5, 2025, with a term of 3 months [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026" [6]. - The Ministry of Commerce decided to implement anti - circumvention measures against US - originated optical fiber products starting from September 4, 2025 [6]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 4, domestic soda ash factory inventory decreased by 4.54 million tons week - on - week to 1.8221 million tons, a decline of 2.43%. Float glass sample enterprise inventory increased by 484,000 heavy boxes week - on - week to 63.05 million heavy boxes, an increase of 0.77% [8]. - As of September 4, the inventory of fixed caustic soda sample enterprises increased by 2.17% week - on - week to 387,800 tons. The capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.76% week - on - week to 20.97% [8]. - As of September 3, Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 2.675 million barrels to 27.399 million barrels, a 37 - week high [10]. - As of September 4, East China port methanol inventory increased by 65,100 tons week - on - week to 709,900 tons [11]. - As of August 29, US natural gas inventory increased by 55 billion cubic feet week - on - week to 3272 billion cubic feet, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2% [11]. - For the week of August 29, US crude oil exports increased by 74,000 barrels per day to 3.884 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventory increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 509,000 barrels to 404.7 million barrels [11]. Metal Futures The inventory data for soda ash, caustic soda, fuel oil, methanol, natural gas, and crude oil are the same as those in the energy and chemical futures section [13][14][16]. Black - Series Futures - The Coking Association believes that coke does not have the conditions for price cuts and will jointly limit production to maintain prices [18]. - As of September 4, rebar production decreased by 18,800 tons week - on - week to 2.1868 million tons, factory inventory increased by 17,200 tons week - on - week to 1.7134 million tons, social inventory increased by 148,900 tons week - on - week to 4.6866 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 2.0207 million tons [18]. - The average national profit per ton of coke is 64 yuan/ton, with different profitability in different regions [18]. Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysia's palm oil production in August is estimated to increase by 2.07%, with different trends in different regions, and the total output is estimated to be 1.85 million tons [21]. - As of September 1, Xinjiang cotton's average boll opening rate is 27.7%, an increase of 12.4 percentage points week - on - week. New cotton is expected to be listed 10 - 15 days earlier than usual [21]. - As of September 2, about 16% of US soybean planting areas are affected by drought (previously 11%, 19% last year), about 9% of corn planting areas are affected (previously 5%, 13% last year), and about 30% of cotton planting areas are affected (unchanged from the previous week, 41% last year) [21]. - Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to be 6.75 million tons, soybean meal exports are expected to be 6.37 million tons, and corn exports are expected to be 1.94 million tons [22]. Financial Markets Finance - A - shares weakened unilaterally, with technology stocks falling widely. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to 3765.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.83%, and the ChiNext Index fell 4.25%. The market turnover was 2.58 trillion yuan [24]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.12% to 25058.51 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.85%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.25%. The market turnover was HK$302.233 billion [26]. - Some public funds believe that the A - share correction on September 4 is a normal adjustment [26]. - As of the end of August, the market value of the Hong Kong securities market was HK$46.6 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 47%. The average daily trading volume in August was HK$279.1 billion, a year - on - year increase of 192% [27]. - Zijin Mining plans to conduct an IPO of its international gold mining business in Hong Kong, with a potential financing of over $3 billion [28]. Industry - From January to July, China's renewable energy new installed capacity was 283 million kilowatts, with a total installed capacity of 2.171 billion kilowatts, accounting for nearly 60% of the national total [29]. - In September, the enthusiasm of real estate developers to launch new projects increased. The supply in 28 cities increased by 10% month - on - month [29]. - The Securities Association of China launched the evaluation of the investment banking, bond, and major asset restructuring financial advisory businesses of securities companies in 2025 [30]. Overseas - US President Trump signed an executive order to implement the US - Japan trade agreement. Japan plans to increase US rice purchases by 75% [32]. - The US trade deficit in July soared 32.5% month - on - month to $78.3 billion, a four - month high [32]. - The US government criticized Norway's sovereign wealth fund for exiting its investment in Caterpillar [32]. - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Cook [32]. - The US ADP employment in August increased by only 54,000, far lower than expected. The market bets that the Fed will cut interest rates in September with a nearly 100% probability [33]. - US companies announced the addition of only 1494 jobs in August, the lowest in the same period since 2009, and the announced layoffs soared to nearly 86,000 [33]. - The US ISM services PMI in August was 52, the fastest expansion in six months [35]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, with the Dow up 0.77%, the S&P 500 up 0.83%, and the Nasdaq up 0.98%. Most Chinese concept stocks fell [36]. - European stocks showed mixed performance, with the German DAX up 0.74%, the French CAC40 down 0.27%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.42% [36]. - Nasdaq plans to modify the listing rules for small IPOs, raising the minimum public shareholding and fundraising thresholds [36]. - Deutsche Börse Group will remove Porsche from the DAX index on September 22 [37]. - Goldman Sachs will invest up to $1 billion in T. Rowe Price and cooperate to sell private products to retail investors [38]. - Waterdrop's Q2 net revenue was 838 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 140 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 58.7% [39]. - Broadcom's adjusted EPS in Q3 was $1.69, revenue was $15.952 billion [41]. Commodities The performance of precious metals, oil, and base metals is the same as that in the overnight night - market trends section. The OPEC + meeting has not determined the agenda, and an increase in production by 8 countries is not currently on the agenda [42][43]. Bonds - The confidence in the bond market is still insufficient. Bank - to - bank interest - rate bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, and most Treasury bond futures rose [44]. - The bid - to - cover ratio of Japan's 30 - year Treasury bond auction was 3.31, slightly lower than the 12 - month average [46]. - US Treasury yields fell across the board [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1402 on Thursday, up 66 basis points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate was 7.1052, up 56 basis points [47]. - The US dollar index rose 0.13% to 98.28. Most non - US currencies fell [47].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of September 4th, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Iron ore, eggs, and lithium carbonate rose over 1%, while jujube and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) dropped over 3%, and fuel oil, SC crude oil, asphalt, and PTA fell over 2% [6]. - In terms of funds flow, CSI 500 2509, CSI 300 2509, and iron ore 2601 had capital inflows of 2.303 billion, 1.381 billion, and 863 million respectively, while CSI 1000 2509, Shanghai gold 2510, and Shanghai silver 2510 had outflows of 1.833 billion, 1.365 billion, and 957 million respectively [7]. 2. Core Views Copper - Despite being in the off - season, domestic power grid investment boosts copper demand, but external demand will weaken in the second half of the year. With low inventory and expected supply tightness, copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply remains loose, but production cuts are uncertain. With high inventory and upcoming demand in the peak season, prices are expected to be under pressure. The supply situation in Jiangxi needs attention [11]. Crude Oil - As the consumption peak season ends and OPEC+ plans to increase production, the supply - demand balance will weaken. It is recommended to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and potential sanctions on Russia [12][14]. Asphalt - Supply is expected to increase in September, and demand is restricted by various factors. With the weakening cost support from crude oil, asphalt futures are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. PP - Downstream开工率 is low, and new capacity is added. With the approaching peak season, there may be some improvement. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to global trade wars and anti - overcapacity policies [16][17]. Plastic -开工率 is at a medium level, and new capacity is added. Although the agricultural film market is improving, overall demand is weak. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to anti - overcapacity policies [18]. PVC - Supply is high, and demand is weak. With increased inventory and export pressure, PVC is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to anti - overcapacity policies [20]. Coking Coal - Supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand has no obvious improvement. Coking coal is expected to be weak in the near term. Attention should be paid to the coking coal price cut process [21][22]. Urea - Supply is high, and demand is weak. With increased inventory, urea is expected to be weak. However, there may be some support from autumn fertilizers and off - season storage [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The downstream domestic demand is insufficient, and short - term export boost is limited. Urea is expected to run weakly, but there will be a bottom - support market for autumn fertilizers and off - season storage, so be cautious about short - selling [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened low and moved high today, facing pressure during the day. Affected by the decline in the futures market, upstream factory prices were lowered, with small - particle urea ex - factory prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranging from 1650 - 1680 yuan/ton, and some factory prices were reduced by 10 yuan/ton [1][3] - India's NFL received bids for 5.6 million tons of urea from 29 bidders on September 2nd [1] - Recently, the daily urea production has fluctuated within 18 - 190,000 tons. Although summer maintenance is ongoing, the production remains at a high level, and the current reduction in production has not changed the loose supply pattern [1] - Affected by parades and major meetings, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has dropped significantly this period, and it is expected to resume production gradually this week. The finished product inventory in factories continues to decline, and the finished fertilizers are starting to be transferred to the end - users. The possibility of subsequent concentrated fertilizer procurement is low, and the incremental demand for urea may be limited. The operating load is expected to increase next week [1] - The urea inventory in factories continues to accumulate, increasing by 0.92 million tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.85% [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1712 yuan/ton, moved high after opening low, faced pressure during the day, and finally closed at 1714 yuan/ton, forming a negative line with a change of - 1.32%. The open interest was 234,351 lots (+1,623 lots) [2] - Among the top twenty main open - interest seats of the main contract, long positions increased by 1,597 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,667 lots. For example, Galaxy Futures had a net long position of - 1,171 lots, Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of - 234 lots; Yide Futures had a net short position of +1,064 lots, and Guotai Junan had a net short position of - 1,213 lots [2] - On September 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,928, a month - on - month increase of 723 compared with the previous trading day. For example, Jiashili Pingyuan increased by 450, Jiashili Jingzhou increased by 115, and Anyang Wanzhuang (Sichuan Agricultural Means of Production) decreased by 25, while Anyang Wanzhuang increased by 150 [2] Spot - Affected by the decline in the futures market, upstream factory prices were lowered, with small - particle urea ex - factory prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranging from 1650 - 1680 yuan/ton, and some factory prices were reduced by 10 yuan/ton [1][3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation was stable, while the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 4 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton) [6] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on September 4, 2025, the national daily urea production was 183,400 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with yesterday, and the operating rate was 77.49% [8] Downstream Data - From August 29th to September 4th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 33.08%, a decrease of 6.14 percentage points compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 58.98%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points compared with last week [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The crude oil market is in the late stage of the seasonal travel peak. Although the EIA data shows a decrease in US crude oil and gasoline inventories and high refinery operating rates, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of the global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The consumption peak is about to end, and the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken. Therefore, it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and potential sanctions on Russian oil [1]. Summary by Related Directory Strategy Analysis - Recommend shorting on rallies. Despite short - term price rebounds due to positive US EIA data, market bets on Fed rate cuts in September, and geopolitical conflicts, the subsequent consumption peak will end, and OPEC+ may further increase production. There are also potential sanctions on Russian oil. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and the situation of sanctions on Russian oil [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 fell 2.20% to 481.0 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 479.9 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 487.7 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1340 to 27643 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by more than 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, an upward revision of 0.8 million barrels per day from last month. EIA has also lowered the average Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026. OPEC maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and raises it for 2026 to 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has adjusted the global oil supply and demand growth rate forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The EIA data on August 27 showed a decrease in US crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories [3]. - On the supply side, OPEC's June crude oil production was revised down by 46,000 barrels per day, and its July 2025 production increased by 262,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels per day in the week of August 22. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased, and the weekly demand for gasoline and diesel increased, driving the weekly supply of US crude oil products to increase by 0.50% [4][6].

【冠通研究】 高位震荡 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 4 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开高走日内下挫，美国 JOLTS 职位空缺数据疲软，强化了市场的降息预 期，但美联储独立性遭质疑，市场不确定性强，美指反弹。基本面来看，我国 7 月进口 铜矿砂及精矿为 256 万吨左右，环比大幅增加，精矿港口库存同样触底回升。前期冶炼 厂加工费出现回升拐点后，近两期继续下降。且硫酸价格逐渐出现拐点，预计价格已升 至高位，后续对于冶炼厂的利润弥补将有所下滑，9 月有 5 家冶炼厂有检修计划，涉及 粗炼产能 100 万吨，预计 9 月国内电解铜产量将环比下降，铜关税落地后，进口铜货源 回流至国内，且国内产量下半年预计有回落，进口铜货源将挤占国内市场，影响定价。 需求方面，截至 2025 年 7 月，铜表观消费量为 137.45 万吨，整体来看，虽目前处于消 费淡季阶段，但国内电网设施投资规模不断加大，拉动铜需求，但受上半年美国关税贸 易政策的影响，终端家用电器出现抢出口的情况，透支了后半年的家电出口需求，下半 年外需将走弱，拖累整体需求，同时国内国补以旧换新政策同样将内需有所前置，综合 来看，近期海外交易美联储降息预期及独立 ...