Guan Tong Qi Huo

Search documents
冠通每日交易策略-20250722
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:49
热点品种 焦煤: 焦煤今日高开高走,午后快速拉涨,日内上涨近 8%。现货方面,山西市场(介休) 主流价格报价 1080 元/吨,较上个交易日+20 元/吨;蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 850 元/吨,较上个交易日+54 元/吨。基本面来看,6 月份焦煤进口数量环比增加, 较上月增加 172.15 万吨,其中蒙煤进口增加 36 万吨。16 日以来,蒙煤恢复通 关数量,目前已回到正常通关水平。国内安全月检修复产并行,钢联数据显示, 目前矿山产量及洗煤厂产量均环比修复,焦煤库存向下传导,矿山库存去化,钢 厂及独立焦企焦煤库存增加,焦煤交投情绪积极。焦炭二轮提涨,大约本周将落 地,下游钢厂盈利尚可,铁水产量转为上涨,下游需求提振煤炭价格。7 月 18 日, 国新办发布会提到,要"实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行 业稳增长工作方案,推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能,具体工 作方案将在近期陆续发布,让反内卷的宏观叙事得以继续发酵。今日市场继续受 到国家能源局煤矿核查通知的影响,煤矿去产能,供应缩紧的预期继续走强,市 场情绪高涨,行情大幅上涨触及涨停。7 月 19 日,雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正 式开 ...
情绪放缓
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:34
【冠通研究】 情绪放缓 制作日期:2025 年 7 月 22 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日盘面高开低走,尾盘小幅收涨。近期市场情绪走强,尿素现货价 格上行,上游工厂收单良好,但内需支撑有限,后续上涨幅度预计缩窄。基本 面来看,上周尿素上游工厂装置多发停产,日产跌至 20 万吨以下,预计本周 起,停产检修装置陆续复产,本周产量将有小幅增加,反内卷举措继续发酵, 尿素老旧装置占比高,市场对去产能预期增加;需求端,玉米追肥已至尾声, 零星补货为主,预计月底前将收尾。复合肥工厂秋季肥生产销售的初级阶段, 开工负荷变动幅度小,目前对原料尿素采购约在三成左右,目前订单以预收款 为主,厂内成品库存大幅累积,对尿素需求弹性大,短期内有高价抵触情绪。 库存继续去化,主要系出口集港,及局域性农需拿货。整体来说,反内卷举措 对尿素老旧装置产能去化的情绪今日有放缓,内需拖累上涨动能不足,行情出 现回调趋势,但大宗商品近期情绪高涨,尿素短期依然震荡偏多。 【期现行情】 期货方面:尿素主力 2509 合约 1820 元/吨高开低走,日内偏强震荡,最终 收于 1817 元/吨,收成一根阳线,涨跌+0.55%,持仓量 191764 手(-41 ...
宏观情绪烘托,铜价偏强
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:34
【策略分析】 今日铜高开低走震荡偏强,7 月 18 日,国新办发布会表示,下一步将印发新一轮有 色金属稳增长的方案,注重供需两端协同发力。7 月 19 日,雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正 式开工,项目总投资约 1.2 万亿,投资规模是三峡水电站的 5 倍,建设周期约 20 年。供 给方面,截至 2025 年 7 月 18 日,现货粗炼费为-43.16 美元/干吨,现货精炼费为-4.31 美分/磅。冶炼厂粗炼费、精炼费本周均企稳回升,7 月一家冶炼企业有检修计划,涉及 精炼产能 15 万吨,对精炼铜产量影响有限。SMM 预计 7 月国内电解铜产量环比增加 1.55 万吨,升幅为 1.37%。国际市场上,秘鲁抗议者解除封锁,持续两周以上的铜运输出口 通道恢复。需求方面,截至 2025 年 5 月,电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨,相比上月涨跌 +8.08 万吨,涨跌幅+6.30%。下游处于相对淡季,虽价格下跌后报价升水走强,但交投 情绪依然偏弱,终端工业产品如空调等均环比产量减少,下游按需跟进,市场观望情绪 浓厚。综合来看,国内反内卷措施对铜影响较小,但市场情绪依然偏多,另水电工程带 来下游需求乐观前景,美元近两日走 ...
冠通期货塑料策略:震荡上行
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to experience a strong oscillation in the near future. It is recommended to switch to buying on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread strategy. This is due to factors such as the restart of previously shut - down production facilities, the impact of coal price increases on costs, the current situation of downstream demand, and positive market sentiment driven by government policies [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 22, the restart of maintenance devices in Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II LDPE and Shanghai SECCO HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. Although the agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. Due to coal production inspections, coal prices have risen significantly. With new production capacity coming on - stream and the restart of maintenance devices, and considering government policies, it is recommended to buy on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2509 contract reduced positions and oscillated upward, with a low of 7264 yuan/ton, a high of 7373 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7368 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, up 1.26%. The open interest decreased by 13,406 lots to 394,148 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market prices rose, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7130 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9240 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7660 - 8220 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On July 18, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 84%, currently at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of July 18, the downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the off - season, with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 790,000 tons compared to the previous day, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 09 contract fell to $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $830/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $820/ton [4]
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250722
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 00:41
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/7/22 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 周一夜盘收盘,国内期货主力合约涨跌互现,焦煤涨超 6%,氧化铝、纯碱、 玻璃、焦炭涨超 3%。跌幅方面,SC 原油、沥青跌超 1%,豆油、菜粕、低硫燃料 油(LU)跌近 1%。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨,COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.55%报 3410.30 美元/盎司, COMEX 白银期货涨 2.02%报 39.24 美元/盎司。 3. 国际油价微跌,美油主力合约收跌 0.41%,报 65.78 美元/桶;布伦特原油主 力合约跌 0.36%,报 69.03 美元/桶。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘全线上涨,LME 期镍涨 1.92%报 15510.00 美元/吨,LME 期 锌涨 0.92%报 2844.50 美元/吨,LME 期铜涨 0.91%报 9867.00 美元/吨。 5. 国际农产品期货涨跌不一,美大豆跌 1.22%,美玉米跌 1.10%,美豆油涨 0.41%,美豆粕跌 1.17%,美小麦跌 0.82%。 投资有风险,入市需谨慎 ...
冠通期货早盘速递-20250722
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 00:41
Hot News - The State Council Premier Li Qiang signed the "Housing Rental Regulations," which will be implemented on September 15, 2025, emphasizing market - government cooperation and regulating housing rental enterprises [2] - On July 21, the National Energy Administration released June's electricity consumption data, showing a 5.4% year - on - year increase, with varying growth rates in different industries [2] - At a press conference on July 21, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun had no information on the possible meeting between Chinese and US heads of state [2] - The US Congressional Budget Office estimates that the "Big and Beautiful Act" will increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in ten years [3] Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are coking coal, soda ash, asphalt, rapeseed meal, and glass [4] Night - session Performance - The night - session performance of different commodity futures sectors shows varying growth rates, with the precious metals sector having the highest growth rate of 28.87%, followed by the coal - coking - steel - ore sector at 14.71% and the oil - and - fat sector at 12.44% [4] Major Asset Performance - Different types of major assets have different daily, monthly, and annual growth rates. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has a daily increase of 0.72%, a monthly increase of 3.35%, and an annual increase of 6.21%; the precious metals like London spot gold have excellent performance with an annual increase of 29.44% [6]
冠通期货每周核心策略推荐-20250721
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 14:16
冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 投资有风险,入市需谨慎,本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货 每周核心策略推荐 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号:F03104403/Z0018167 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 分析师苏妙达:F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险,入市须谨慎。 | 部 | | --- | | 询 | | 咨 | | 究 | | 研 | | 货 | | 部 | | 期 | | 询 | | 通 | | 咨 | | 冠 | | 究 | | 研 | | 货 | | 期 | | 通 | | 冠 | | 部 | | --- | | 铜 | | 询 | | 咨 | | 究 | | 研 | | 货 | | 部 | | 期 | | 询 | | 通 | | 咨 | | 冠 | | 究 | | 研 | | 货 | | 期 | | 通 | | 冠 | 4 铜 分析师王静:F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险,入市须谨慎。 3 分析师王静:F0235424/Z0000771 投资有 ...
冠通期货宏观与大宗商品周报-20250721
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 14:16
分析师王静:F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询 宏观与大宗商品周报 冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号:F0235424/Z0000771 2025年7月21日 核心观点 投资有风险,入市需谨慎,本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 部 分析师王静:F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 冠通期货研究咨询部 最近,资本市场风险偏好延续积极,风险资产价格普遍收涨。海外,美国的关税与特朗普的内斗对资本市场的影响日渐平淡,地缘的动荡与冲突虽层出不穷但却难 起波澜。美国通胀数据开始反应关税的冲击,但核心CPI的涨幅不及预期因而对美联储降息预期的扰动不甚明显。全球主要股市震荡反复多数收涨,BDI指数连续大涨, 美元小幅反弹,非美货币整体承压,大宗商品涨跌互现;国内,"反内卷"行情延续,周期股的演绎在股市和期货市场上联袂上演,A股大盘站稳了3500点,商品市场上 内强外弱的强预期弱现实风格特征强化,同时也开始出现了扩散。国内债市多数下挫近强远弱、股指普涨格局,商品大类 ...
冠通期货铜周度策略展望-20250721
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 14:08
研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号:F0235424/Z0000771 时间:2025年7月21日 冠通期货 铜周度策略展望 投资有风险,入市需谨慎,本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静:F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 铜 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 宏观方面,美国CPI、PPI数据小幅超预期,通胀数据表现温和,目前美联储降息的决定不确定性高,美联储未来主席人选的博弈,7月降息 | | | | | 的可能性依然迷茫,但目前市场普遍认为7月降息的概率依然偏低,美元本周走强,压制有色市场的行情价格。8月1日,铜关税或正式落地, | | | | | 据外媒报道,此次铜关税除精炼铜纳入范围外,铜材或同样征收铜关税。7月18日,国新办发布会表示,下一步将印发新一轮有色金属稳增 | | | | | 长的方案,注重供需两端协同发力。供给方面,截至2025年7月18日,现货粗炼费为-43.16美元/干吨,现货精炼费为-4.31美分/磅。冶炼 | | | | | 厂粗炼费、精炼费本 ...
尿素周报:情绪刺激,跳空高开-20250721
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 14:01
【冠通研究】 制作日期:2025 年 7 月 21 日 尿素周报:情绪刺激,跳空高开 摘要:周一盘面跳空高开,日内偏强震荡。周末以来,现货价格稳中上 扬,受市场情绪影响及期货盘面的影响下,部分工厂出现限收停收的情 况。基本面来看,上周尿素上游工厂装置多发停产,日产跌至 20 万吨 以下,预计本周起,停产检修装置陆续复产,本周产量将有小幅增加。 需求端,北方玉米追肥已至尾声,预计月底前将收尾。三聚氰胺等工业 需求由于下游终端开工低位,天气限制生产,对尿素需求季节性环比走 弱。目前复合肥工厂秋季肥生产销售的初级阶段,开工负荷变动幅度小, 目前对原料尿素采购约在三成左右,目前订单以预收款为主,厂内成品 库存大幅累积,对尿素需求弹性大,预计短期有高价抵触情绪。库存继 续去化,主要系出口集港,由于农需即将收尾,主交割区库存也有累积, 但整体库存去化同样支撑尿素行情。整体来说,上周尿素内需不足,拖 累价格下调,周五反内卷举措继续发酵,尿素老旧装置占比高,市场对 去产能预期增加,刺激资金情绪,多头进场今日大幅上涨,但基本面目 前暂无明显改善,出口集港陆续进行,上下支撑压力博弈,行情震荡偏 强。 现货市场动态 尿素现货市场来 ...