【冠通期货研究报告】 内需低位支撑 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 21 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素盘面低开高走，整体偏强。现货市场维持弱稳运行，成交氛围冷清。 山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1490-1540 元/吨。基 本面来看，尿素上游工厂装置检修与复产并行，日产并无明显变化，但同比去年 偏低，原料端动力煤价格持续上行，尿素成本端走强，前期尿素价格下跌至水煤 浆成本线后出现反弹。需求端，市场成交氛围低迷，秋季肥收尾为主，复合肥工 厂降低开工负荷，终端走货以成品库存消化为主，秋季肥逐渐收尾，东北地区开 工推迟至十一月附近，复合肥开工负荷难有大量提升。整体来说，盘面止跌回稳， 天气目前转好，秋季肥收尾过程中，短期农需有低位支撑，但内需难以消化高位 库存，行情弱稳为主。 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面：现货市场维持弱稳运行，成交氛围冷清。山东、河南及河北尿 素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1490-1540 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1597 元 ...

1.二十届四中全会10月20日上午在北京开始举行。中央委员会总书记习近平代表中央政治局向全会作工作报告，并就《中共中 央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议（讨论稿）》向全会作了说明。 2.中美双方即将重返谈判桌。美国总统特朗普称，美方将稀土、芬太尼和大豆列为将对中方提出的三大问题。外交部发言人郭 嘉昆对此回应称，中方在处理中美经贸问题上的立场是一贯、明确的。关税战、贸易战不符合任何一方利益，双方应在平等、 尊重、互惠的基础上协商解决有关问题。 3.国家统计局发布数据，前三季度我国GDP同比增长5.2%，其中，一季度增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，三季度增长4.8%。9月 份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%，社会消费品零售总额增长3%。前三季度，全国固定资产投资同比下降0.5%，扣除房地 产开发投资后增长3%；居民人均可支配收入32509元，扣除价格因素实际增长5.2%。 早盘速递 2025/10/21 热点资讯 板块持仓 (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 ...

Report Information - Release Date: October 21, 2025 [3] Market Trends International Futures - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 3.82% at $4374.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.59% at $51.40 per ounce. Factors include US government shutdown, Fed rate - cut expectations, EU energy policy shift, central bank gold - buying, and Sino - US trade friction [4]. - US crude oil futures' main contract fell 0.38% to $56.93 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures' main contract dropped 0.57% to $60.94 per barrel. Rising global production, slowing economic growth, and reduced geopolitical risks pressured oil prices [4]. - Most London base metals rose. LME zinc, lead, copper, tin, and nickel increased, while LME aluminum declined. The Fed's signal of a possible slowdown in rate hikes and a weaker US dollar drove the price increase [4]. Domestic Futures - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shanghai gold rose over 2%, and Shanghai silver rose over 1%. Some commodities like soybeans and pulp had small increases, while coking coal and soda ash dropped over 2%, and others like glass and coke fell over 1% [6]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5% respectively [8]. - China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with an economic increment of 3967.9 billion yuan, 136.8 billion yuan more than the previous year [8]. - As of October 9, 2025, China's futures market capital exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching about 2.02 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [8]. - As of October 20, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 1140.38 points, up 10.5% from the previous period [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The EU plans to gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by January 1, 2028 [11]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to revise the urea futures business rules, adding large - granular urea as an alternative delivery product [13]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange will expand the scope of tradable products for qualified overseas investors, including linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures, starting from the night session on October 28, 2025 [13]. - As of October 20, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.7107 million tons, up 0.60% from the previous week [13]. Metal Futures - The global lithium demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 20% to 4 million tons by 2030, driven by battery demand [15]. - Some polysilicon production bases in Southwest China will gradually reduce raw material input and stop production by the end of October - early November, with an affected capacity of about 320,000 tons per year [15]. - Global primary aluminum production in September 2025 was 6.08 million tons. China's estimated production was 3.644 million tons [15]. - China's tin concentrate imports in September 2025 were 8714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month but up 10.68% year - on - year [16]. Black - Series Futures - From October 13 - 19, 2025, global iron ore shipments were 33.335 million tons, up 1.26 million tons from the previous week [19]. - In September 2025, China's crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, down 4.6% year - on - year; pig iron production was 66.05 million tons, down 2.4% year - on - year; and steel production was 124.21 million tons, up 5.1% year - on - year [19]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on cement industry stability, emphasizing capacity replacement and standardization [19]. - From now until October 23, 2025, Tangshan's section steel mills will implement production control, with an expected开工率 of 33% and a daily output reduction of about 50,000 tons [20]. - HeSteel Group set the final price of silicomanganese in October at 5820 yuan per ton [21]. - Coal mines in Shuozhou's Shanyin County stopped production on October 20, 2025, with a total capacity of 34 million tons, and are expected to resume on October 24 [22]. Agricultural Futures - In the first three quarters, China's pig slaughter was 529.92 million heads, up 1.8% year - on - year, and pork production was 43.68 million tons, up 3.0% year - on - year [25]. - As of the week of October 17, domestic major soybean oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 2.17 million tons, and it is expected to rise to about 2.3 million tons this week [25]. - As of October 17, 2025, palm oil commercial inventory in key regions increased by 5.13% week - on - week, while soybean oil commercial inventory decreased by 3.25% week - on - week [25]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last month [26]. - China did not import soybeans from the US in September 2025 and is increasing purchases from South American countries [26]. - As of October 15, the national pig ex - factory price was 11.90 yuan per kilogram, down 6.08% from October 8 [26]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate was 24%, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn in the central - southern region reached 51% of the planned area [26]. - As of October 20, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.96254 million tons, up 314,570 tons from the previous week [28]. - US soybean export inspections in the week ending October 16, 2025, were 1.474354 million tons [28]. - As of October 18, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 21.7% [29]. Financial Markets Financial - On Monday, A - shares oscillated with reduced trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%. Market turnover decreased to 1.75 trillion yuan [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 2.42%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 3%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.45%. Southbound funds had a net sell - off of HK$2.67 billion [31]. - There are rumors that the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges may select a CSI A500ETF as an option underlying asset [31]. Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the implementation of the cement industry's stability plan, including no new capacity, standardizing existing capacity, and eliminating backward capacity [32]. - In the first three quarters, the land transfer fees of 300 cities' residential land increased by 12% year - on - year, but the transaction area decreased by 8%. In the third quarter, the land market cooled [32]. - Shanghai's eighth batch of centralized land auctions had a total transaction amount of 19.877 billion yuan, with a record - high floor price in the Xuhui Riverside area [32]. - The 2025 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference proposed to increase China's annual new wind power installation capacity during the 15th Five - Year Plan period and set long - term installation goals [32]. - As of the end of September, China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure reached 18.063 million units, a 54.5% year - on - year increase [33]. - In September, China's industrial raw coal production decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, while crude oil and natural gas production increased. Crude steel and pig iron production reached new lows since December 2023 [33]. Overseas - The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to invest over $3 billion in the next 6 months and build a gallium processing plant in Western Australia [35]. - Trump claimed that Modi promised to stop buying Russian oil, and threatened to impose "huge" tariffs if India does not fulfill the promise [35]. - The White House's economic advisor said the government shutdown may end this week, and stronger measures may be taken if not [35]. - Argentina's central bank signed a $20 - billion swap agreement with the US Treasury [36]. - The Bank of Korea's governor said the bank has not considered a currency swap with the US Treasury [37]. - The EU supports phasing out Russian natural gas imports by January 2028 [37]. - A hawkish member of the Bank of Japan warned of price - rising risks and said the central bank may raise the benchmark interest rate. The BOJ may slightly raise the 2025 fiscal year's economic growth forecast [37]. - Vietnam's government set a GDP growth target of at least 10% in 2026 and expects an 8% growth this year [38]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, driven by Apple's record - high price, hopes of ending the government shutdown, and strong iPhone 17 sales [40]. - European stocks also closed higher, benefiting from better - than - expected Chinese economic data, expectations of Sino - US trade talks, improved corporate earnings, and reduced risk aversion [40]. - Japan's stock market rose strongly after the increased possibility of Takamichi Sanae becoming the prime minister. South Korea's stock market also reached a new high [40]. - Vietnam's stock market tumbled due to reports of corporate bond issuance irregularities in the banking and real - estate sectors [41]. Commodities - On October 9, 2025, China's futures market capital exceeded 2 trillion yuan [42]. - Linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures will be listed on October 28, 2025, and are open to qualified overseas investors [44]. Bonds - A - share rebound and progress in Sino - US talks led to rising yields in the inter - bank bond market and falling bond futures prices in China. The central bank conducted 189 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and had a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [46]. - US Treasury yields fell across the board, driven by increased risk aversion and expectations of Fed rate cuts [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1231 on Monday, up 34 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.0973, down 24 basis points [48]. - The CFETS RMB exchange - rate index and other RMB exchange - rate indices declined in the week of October 17 [48]. - The Reserve Bank of India is taking measures to promote the use of the rupee in trade settlements [48]. - The US dollar index rose 0.07% at the New York close. Most non - US currencies fell, while the Australian dollar and offshore RMB rose [48]. Upcoming Events - At 09:20, 91 billion yuan of reverse repurchases by the People's Bank of China will mature [50]. - At 12:20, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will give a speech [50]. - At 15:00, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane and President Christine Lagarde will give speeches [50]. - At 21:00, the Federal Reserve will hold a payment innovation meeting, with Governor Christopher Waller giving the opening speech [50]. - At 21:30, European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann will give a speech [50]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is being held from October 20 - 23 [50]. - The APEC Finance Ministers' Meeting is being held until October 22 [50]. - Japan will hold a prime - minister nomination election [50]. - US President Trump will announce major tariff measures against Colombia [50]. - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will hold a regional investment summit [50]. - Jushuitan will be officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [50]. - China Telecom, Netflix, Coca - Cola, and General Motors will release their financial reports [50]. - At 03:30 the next day, Fed Governor Christopher Waller will give the closing speech at the Fed's payment innovation meeting [50]. - At 06:00 the next day, German Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel will give a speech [50].

冠通期货研究报告 --沪铜周报 研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2025年10月20日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 行情分析 2 ➢ 宏观方面：目前美国政府依然处于停摆阶段，经济数据迟迟未公布，目前预计本周将陆续有数据出炉，但10月份降息概率依然维持高位， 下周将举行会议。中美关税贸易冲突目前依然还在僵持，自特朗普10月10日威胁对华输美商品加征100％关税后，双方反制措施密集出 台，国内经济数据核心CPI连续回升，工业生产者价格降幅收窄。 ➢ 供给方面：今年以来，铜矿端多发扰动，印尼Grasberg铜矿为全球第二大铜矿，9月出现泥石流事故，5月Kamoa-Kakula铜矿地震活动中 断采矿作业，7月El Teniente矿区因地震活动暂停地下作业，频繁的铜矿事故造成了偏紧的铜供应预期。本周铜精矿港口库存数量去化， 目前铜精矿库存同比去年大幅偏低。冶炼厂检修仍在继续，产出水平低，且LME铜价格走高，冶炼厂计划向LME发运铜现货，可能造成国 内进一步收缩流通量。 ➢ 需求方面：目前铜处于银十旺季阶段，但受宏观刺 ...

冠通期货研究报告-- 宏观与大宗商品周报 冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2025年10月20日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 宏观分析 最近，关税风云再起，市场一波三折。全球主要股市多数收跌，美股先抑后扬，A股高位回落震荡调整，BDI指数小幅上扬， 波动率VIX指数明显下行，美债收益率与美元指数联袂下挫，非美货币多数上扬。大宗商品跌多涨少，贵金属一枝独秀，金银 联袂创历史新高之后高位回调，油价的疲弱拖累能化板块。 国内期货市场的表现来看，债市整体收涨远期最强、股指悉数收跌，商品大类板块涨跌互现多数收跌；股市悉数收跌，成 长型风格表现明显更弱，价值股承压回落相对抗跌；国内商品大类板块涨跌互现Wind商品指数周度涨跌幅6.93%，10个商品大 类板块指数中3个收涨7个收跌。具体商品大类表现来看，贵金属一枝独秀，能源与有色的弱势拖累商品整体的收跌，煤焦钢矿 ...

发布时间：2025年10月20日 冠通期货研究报告 --聚烯烃周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 塑料开工率上涨至88%左右，处于中性水平。PP开工率下跌至82%左右，处于中性偏低水平。PE下游开工率环比 上升0.56个百分点至44.92%，农膜进入旺季，国庆节后，农膜订单和农膜原料库存再次增加，只是相较往年仍偏低， 包装膜订单小幅减少，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。PP下游开工率环比回升0.09个百分点至 51.85%，处于历年同期偏低水平。其中塑编开工率环比持平于44.26%，塑编订单环比继续略有减少，略低于去年同 期。今年国庆石化累库幅度与往年类似，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，以色列和哈马斯签署停火 协议，OPEC+计划11月继续增产，中美贸易摩擦升级，供需压力较大，原油价格下跌。另外，新增产能，50万吨/年 的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE试开车，中石油广西石化80万 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --PVC周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年10月20日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少5.94个百分点至76.69%，PVC开工率减少较多，但仍处于近年同期偏高水平。国庆节后归来， PVC下游恢复幅度较大，PVC下游开工超过国庆节前水平，但仍处于历年同期偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12 月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50 美元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，出口签单暂未明显走弱。本周社会库存略有减少，目前 仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施 工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比继续回落，仍处于近年 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年10月20日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升1.3个百分点至35.8%，较去年同期高了8.0个百分点，处于近年同期中性偏低 水平。据隆众资讯数据，10月份国内沥青预计排产268.2万吨，环比减少0.4万吨，减幅为0.1%，同比增加35.0万吨， 增幅为15.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数稳定，其中道路沥青开工环比持平于29.0%，仍处于近年同期最低 水平，受到资金和部分地区降雨制约。上周，国庆假期归来，全国出货量环比增加14.48%至25.33万吨，处于中性偏 低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比继续上升，但仍处于近年来同期的最低位。无棣鑫岳等炼厂有检修计划，沥青产 量将有所减少，但仍处高位。北方多地项目赶工，只是个别地区降温明显，南方降雨增加，另外，资金端制约，市 场谨慎，影响沥青需求。近日中美即将进行新一轮的经贸磋 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 20 日 尿素周报：内需不足，尿素连续累库 摘要： 周末以来，现货市场依然稳中下调价格，但近期随着天气的好转 及期货的止跌企稳，现货报价看空情绪有所改善，后续预计秋季肥逐渐 收尾，市场对于尿素的需求主要以储备为主。基本面来看，尿素上游工 厂装置检修与复产并行，日产并无明显变化，原料端动力煤价格持续上 行，尿素成本端走强，前期尿素价格下跌至水煤浆成本线后出现反弹。 需求端，秋收秋种延迟，下游拿货谨慎，多逢低补货，无集中拿货情况， 复合肥工厂降低开工负荷，终端走货以成品库存消化为主，秋季肥逐渐 收尾，东北地区开工推迟至十一月附近，复合肥开工负荷难有大量提升。 其他工业需求多受房地产及关税贸易的影响，也有不同程度的的下滑， 供需矛盾依然突出。整体来说，尿素看空情绪有所改善，前期价格触及 成本线后止跌回稳，但目前秋季肥逐渐收尾，农需支撑预计较为短暂， 后续尿素需求多以储备拿货为主，库存去化压力大，整体低迷，行情止 跌企稳为主，关注国内重大会议对盘面影响及出口是否有变化。 现货市场动态 尿素现货市场来看，农时延期推迟，下游拿货不积极，上游工厂报 价以弱稳为主，上下 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 20 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 10 月 20 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。生猪涨近 3 ...