1. Hot News - Houthi rebels attacked the Greek - operated, Liberian - flagged vessel "ETERNITY C" near Hodeidah, Yemen, resulting in two deaths. It's the first seaman - fatality incident in the Red Sea since June 2024 [2] - In June, domestic retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 1.111 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.7%. In the first six months, the cumulative domestic retail sales reached 5.468 million, a year - on - year increase of 33.3% [2] - Trump said on the 7th that starting from August 1st, he will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated that tariff and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [2] - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will make an official visit to China from July 12th to 18th at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on the 7th that he expects to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to promote consultations on trade and other issues [2] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, pure benzene, methanol, urea, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - In the night - session, different commodity sectors had varying performances. Non - metallic building materials rose 2.82%, precious metals 27.55%, oilseeds and oils 12.51%, non - ferrous metals 20.69%, soft commodities 2.84%, coal - coke - steel - ore 13.84%, energy 3.11%, chemicals 12.69%, grains 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.77% [3] 4. Plate Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, covering various sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coke - steel - ore, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% daily, 1.54% monthly, and 4.35% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.07% daily but had a 0.33% monthly and 5.85% annual increase; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.09% daily, 0.31% monthly, and 20.38% annually [5] - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, had a 0.11% monthly increase, and a 0.09% annual increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.02% monthly, and 0.38% annually [5] - **Commodities**: The CRB Commodity Index rose 1.01% daily, 1.69% monthly, and 1.88% annually; WTI crude oil rose 0.47% daily, 5.00% monthly, but fell 5.10% annually; London spot gold fell 1.07% daily, 0.05% monthly, but rose 25.78% annually [5] - **Others**: The US Dollar Index fell 0.06% daily, had a 0.74% monthly increase, and a 10.13% annual decrease; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, had a 6.34% monthly increase, and a 2.54% annual increase [5] 6. Trends of Major Commodities - The report presents the trends of multiple major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold, and the risk premiums of some stock indices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: As of July 9, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with polysilicon up over 5%, coking coal up nearly 4%, and several other commodities up over 1% or 2%. Some contracts like international copper, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai nickel declined over 1%. Stock index futures mostly fell slightly, while treasury bond futures were mixed [7]. - **Commodity - Specific**: - **Coking Coal**: The futures market is strong, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and coking enterprises have a price - increase expectation. However, the supply - demand surplus situation has not been reversed, and the upside space is expected to be limited, with short - term trading likely to be volatile and slightly strong [3]. - **Copper**: The US copper tariff has been finalized, but the implementation time is uncertain. The supply shortage expectation may improve, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season. Under the current market sentiment of expecting price drops, caution is advised when short - selling [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and deviates from the fundamentals. The supply is still abundant, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. If the demand recovers as expected, the price may be boosted [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has significantly decreased, but the subsequent development of the situation still needs attention. OPEC + plans to increase production, and the oil price is expected to trade in a range [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with attention to the development of the global trade war [15]. - **Plastic**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with attention to the development of the global trade war [16]. - **PVC**: The supply is expected to decline slightly, the demand has not improved substantially, the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with a strategy of shorting at high prices [18]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term inventory pressure is rising, the demand is weak, and it is expected to trade in a range in July, with attention to oil refinery ship purchases and imported soybean arrivals [19][20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price may be affected by the oil price. It is necessary to pay attention to the US biodiesel policy [21]. - **Rebar**: The supply contraction is less than expected, the demand has not increased significantly, the inventory may accumulate, and it is expected to trade in a narrow range [22][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to trade in a volatile manner [24]. - **Urea**: Affected by the improvement of the Indian tender price, the domestic market sentiment is high. Although the demand is weak, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term, with attention to export policies [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Hot - Spot Varieties - **Coking Coal**: Opened high and closed high, with prices rising. The supply is affected by imports and domestic production, and the demand is affected by downstream profits and production. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term [3]. - **Copper**: The US plans to impose tariffs on imported copper, affecting the price. The supply is expected to improve, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season. Caution is advised when short - selling [4][5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened low and closed high, with prices rising. The supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased, OPEC + plans to increase production, and the price is expected to trade in a range [11][12]. 3.2 Other Commodities - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by funds and weather, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range [15]. - **Plastic**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range [16]. - **PVC**: The supply is expected to decline slightly, the demand has not improved substantially, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with a strategy of shorting at high prices [18]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term inventory pressure is rising, the demand is weak, and it is expected to trade in a range in July [19][20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price may be affected by the oil price [21]. - **Rebar**: The supply contraction is less than expected, the demand has not increased significantly, and it is expected to trade in a narrow range [22][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to trade in a volatile manner [24]. - **Urea**: Affected by the Indian tender price, the domestic market sentiment is high. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term [27].

【冠通研究】 现货市场热情高涨 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 9 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面高开低走，日内维持高位运行。现货市场较前期火爆，多家工厂 出现停售现象，贸易商拿货积极，目前工厂待发充足，预计后续暂无降价压 力。基本面来看，日产变动不大，前期检修装置本期陆续有复产情况，预计产 量将有增加。需求端，市场有效需求偏弱，农业需求及工业需求拿货谨慎，刚 需补库为主。农业需求状况好于工业需求，天气多发降雨，农业需求目前也维 持低位拿货，适量补库，预计本月东北华北地区都将迎来收尾，届时将迎来空 窗期。复合肥工厂开工负荷低位，处于秋季肥生产初期阶段，订单以去化厂内 库存为主，工厂销售压力不大，秋季肥多为预收订单，工厂目前观望情绪浓 厚，对尿素保持刚需拿货。虽目前工业需求偏弱，但出口订单依然在发运，农 业需求有局部增量，库存连续去化。整体来说，受印标价格好转的影响，国内 尿素情绪同样高涨，今日期现价格呈现不同幅度的上涨，现货端更出现停售现 象。工厂出口订单支撑，集港陆续进行，盘面依然有支撑，短期依旧以震荡偏 强为主，继续关注出口政策情况。 1 现货方面：现货市场较前期火爆，多家工厂出现停售现象，贸易商拿货积极， ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/07/09 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.95%报 3311.00 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 0.06%报 36.93 美元/盎司。特朗普宣布对多国加征关税 引发批评，市场担忧贸易紧张局势升级。 2. 国际油价小幅走强，美油主力合约收涨 0.37%，报 68.18 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.62%，报 70.01 美元/桶。美国 API 原油库存意外增加 712.8 万 桶，远超市场预期，但俄罗斯 6 月原油产量仍低于 OPEC+目标，叠加投机者 NYMEX 原油净多头头寸创三周新高，推动油价逆势走高。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME 期锌涨 1.29%报 2719.00 美元/吨，LME 期铅涨 0.37%报 2044.00 美元/吨，LME 期铝涨 0.14%报 2577.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜跌 1.67%报 9665.00 美元/吨。铜品种受到宏观政策预期变化和贸易环境波动的双 重 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 8 日 热点品种 原油： 伊朗微弱的报复行动及伊以实现全面停火，无疑将此前紧张的中东地缘风险急剧 降温，极大得缓解了市场对于原油的供给中断的担忧。目前仍需关注停火后中东 局势后续的发展，如双方是否会违反停火协议，伊朗核材料的处理，美国对伊朗 原油出口的制裁等。日前，伊朗驻联合国大使表示永远不会停止铀浓缩活动，内 塔尼亚胡称伊朗通过其核力量和导弹能力对以色列构成重大威胁，中东地缘风险 不能完全排除另外，特朗普表示中国可以继续从伊朗进口石油。基本面上，原油 进入季节性出行旺季，美国原油库存降至低位，只是最新的 EIA 报告显示美国原 油、汽油库存意外增加，加上周末 OPEC+同意在八月份将石油产量提高 54.8 万 桶/日。这超过此前市场预计的 41.1 万桶/日。不过，7 月 7 日，沙特阿美将旗 舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油 8 月对亚洲的官方售价上调至每桶较阿曼/迪拜均价高出 2.20 美元，较 7 月上涨 1 美元，超出市场预期的每桶上涨 50 至 ...

Group 1: Corn Data - The national market average price of corn is 2435.00 yuan/ton, a -0.12% week-on-week change [2] - The consumption of corn by major deep - processing enterprises is 104.12 million tons, a -0.90% week - on - week change [2] - The corn inventory in the four northern ports is 272.40 million tons, a -2.85% week - on - week change [2] - The corn inventory of major deep - processing enterprises is 459.20 million tons, a -1.27% week - on - week change [2] - The settlement price of the CBOT corn main contract is 420.25 cents/bushel, a 4.02% week - on - week change [2] - The FOB price of corn in the western coastal port area of the United States is 216.73 dollars/ton, a 4.36% week - on - week change [2] - The landed duty - paid price of corn in the western coastal port area of the United States is 2022.28 yuan/ton, a 3.66% week - on - week change [2] - The basis of the corn spot main contract is 82 yuan/ton, a 51.85% week - on - week change [2] Group 2: Pig and Pork Data - The average slaughter price of commercial pigs is 14.85 yuan/kg, a 0.34% week - on - week change [3] - The closing price of the pig main contract is 14245.00 yuan/ton, a 2.70% week - on - week change [3] - The inventory of commercial pigs in comprehensive farms is 3719.93 million heads, a 0.31% week - on - week change [3] - The slaughter volume of 81 sample pig enterprises is 106784.00 heads per day, a -6.27% week - on - week change [3] - The fresh sales volume of key pork slaughtering enterprises is 645793.00 heads, a -5.46% week - on - week change [3] - The storage capacity of key slaughtering enterprises for frozen pork is 143451.00 tons, a 0.28% week - on - week change [3] - The basis of the live - pig spot main contract is 956.00 yuan/ton, a -8.87% week - on - week change [3] Group 3: Egg Data - The market price of eggs is 5.54 yuan/kg, a -3.65% week - on - week change [5] - The price difference between egg futures and spot is -869.00 yuan/500 kg, a -3.01% week - on - week change [5] - The inventory of laying hens is 12.70 billion, a -0.39% week - on - week change [5] - The egg shipment volume is 6118.04 tons, a -0.63% week - on - week change [5] - The monthly egg sales in China are 26.02 thousand tons, a -7.34% week - on - week change [5] - The egg sales in the main sales areas are 5928.27 tons, a -3.56% week - on - week change [5] - The available inventory days in the egg production link are 1.27 days, a 2.42% week - on - week change [5] - The total egg export volume from China to the world is 12711.37 tons, a -0.63% week - on - week change [5] - The basis of the egg spot main contract is -572.00 yuan/ton, a 23.54% week - on - week change [15]

| | | | 油脂 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 频度：周 | 最新值 | 前值 | 周环比 | 近一年走势 | | 棕榈油：库存：中国 | 53.51 | 53.74 | -0.43% | | | （万吨） | | | | | | 菜油：库存：中国 | 69.96 | 72.74 | -3.82% | | | （万吨） | | | | | | 压榨厂：豆油：库存： | 101.97 | 95.52 | 6.75% | | | 中国（万吨） | | | | | | 棕榈油：期现价差：中 | 174.00 | 205.00 | -15.12% | | | 国（元/吨） | | | | | | 菜油：期现价差：中国 | | | | | | （元/吨） | 132.00 | 147.00 | -10.20% | | | 豆油、棕榈油：期现价 | -567.00 | -333.00 | 70.27% | | | 差：中国 （元/吨） | | | | | | 棕榈油现货主力合约基 | 163.00 | 161.67 | 0.82% | | | 差(元/吨） | | | | ...

【冠通研究】 行情偏强整理 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面低开低走日内上涨，现货市场平稳运行为主，部分工厂开始下调 价格。基本面来看，日产变动不大，前期检修装置本期陆续有复产情况，预计 产量将有增加。需求端，农业需求状况好于工业需求，农业需求目前也维持低 位拿货，适量补库，预计本月东北华北地区都将迎来收尾，届时尿素需求将迎 来空窗期。复合肥工厂开工负荷低位，处于秋季肥生产初期阶段，订单以去化 厂内库存为主，工厂销售压力不大，秋季肥多为预收订单，工厂目前观望情绪 浓厚，对尿素保持刚需拿货。库存受上游装置检修影响，及出口快速集港的影 响，连续去化，减轻供应端压力。整体来说，目前现货端需求表现欠佳，但目 前仍处于夏季肥收尾阶段，下游仍有采购需求，叠加工厂出口订单支撑，集港 陆续进行，盘面依然有支撑，短期依旧以震荡偏强为主，继续关注出口政策情 况。 【期现行情】 【基本面跟踪】 基差方面：今日现货市场主流报价下行，期货收盘价上移；以山东地区为基 准，基差环比上个交易日走弱，9 月合约基差 47 元/吨（-15 元/吨）。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必 ...

【冠通研究】 低位库存支撑盘面 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜盘面低开低走尾盘收涨。报收于 79620，前二十名多单量 136049 手，+3339 手；空单量 133555 手，+3630 手。 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日铜低开低走午后拉涨。美国总统特朗普 7 日表示，将从 8 月 1 日起分别对来自 日本、韩国等 14 个国家的进口产品征收 25%至 40%不等的关税。国内方面，中央财经委 员会第六次会议研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题，强调 依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。供 给方面，截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，现货粗炼费为-43.31 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.31 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼厂加工费预计止跌回稳，铜供应偏激的预期或将有所改善，但目前 关税博弈之下，铜库存加速抢跑至美国，希望能在关税之前到达美国境内，其他地区的 铜库存继续去化，处于库存同期低位状态。需求方面，截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消 费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。预计 7 ...

早盘速递 2025/7/8 热点资讯 5. 欧盟发言人表示，欧盟在与美国就原则性协议的谈判中取得了良好的进展。欧盟将继续在7月9日的截止日期前推进美国关 税贸易谈判。我们的目标仍然是在7月9日之前达成协议。 板块表现 重点关注 燃油、纯苯、玉米、尿素、沥青 夜盘表现 -1.40 -1.20 -1.00 -0.80 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.85% 贵金属, 27.45% 油脂油料, 12.25% 有色, 20.90% 软商品, 2.85% 煤焦钢矿, 13.83% 能源, 3.13% 化工, 12.77% 谷物, 1.18% 农副产品, 2.79% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) ...