Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the capital market has continued to advance, with risk appetite being optimistic and exuberant. The interest rate cut trading has generally dominated the market, and most risk assets have closed higher. The VIX volatility index has dropped significantly and is operating at a historical low [7]. - Overseas, the resilience of inflation and the turmoil among Fed officials, along with Powell's remarks, have continuously disturbed the interest rate cut expectations. A September interest rate cut is almost certain, and the market has started to focus on the amplitude and speed of subsequent interest rate cuts [7]. - Globally, most major stock markets have closed higher. The US stocks have reached new all - time highs, and the A - shares have strongly risen, breaking through 3800 and reaching a 10 - year high. The BDI index has significantly declined, and the US Treasury yields and the US dollar index have both dropped. Non - US currencies have generally benefited, and the commodity trends have been divergent [7]. - In China, the "anti - involution" market has cooled down. The weakness of the real - end fundamental data has dampened the optimistic sentiment and the strong expectations of investors. However, the supply - side disturbances in key industries and varieties, and the implementation of relevant "anti - involution" industry policies have still caused ripples in the futures market [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - Asset Category - Overseas: Most major global stock markets have closed higher, the US stocks have reached new all - time highs, and the A - shares have strongly risen, breaking through 3800 and reaching a 10 - year high. The BDI index has significantly declined, the US Treasury yields and the US dollar index have both dropped, non - US currencies have generally benefited, and commodity trends have been divergent. Oil prices have rebounded, supporting the energy sector and driving relatively strong performance of internationally - priced commodities. The CRB index has closed higher on a weekly basis, and gold and copper have both risen [7][11]. - Domestic: The "anti - involution" market has cooled down. The domestic bond market has declined across the board, with near - term bonds being stronger than long - term bonds. The stock index has generally risen, and the commodity big - asset categories have shown mixed performance, with most closing lower. The stock market has a general upward trend, and both growth - style and value - style stock indices have performed strongly, with no obvious style differences. The market has stood above 3800, the market risk appetite has increased, and the trading sentiment has been active. The Wind commodity index has a weekly change of - 0.79%, with 2 out of 10 commodity big - asset category indices closing higher and 8 closing lower [7][11][16]. 2. Sector Express - The domestic bond market has declined across the board, with near - term bonds being stronger than long - term bonds. The stock index has generally risen, and the commodity big - asset categories have shown mixed performance, with most closing lower. The stock market has a general upward trend, and both growth - style and value - style stock indices have performed strongly, with no obvious style differences. The market has stood above 3800, the market risk appetite has increased, and the trading sentiment has been active. The domestic commodity big - asset categories have shown mixed performance, with the Wind commodity index having a weekly change of - 0.79%. Among the 10 commodity big - asset category indices, 2 have closed higher and 8 have closed lower, showing an internal - weak and external - strong style characteristic. The agricultural and sideline products sector has dropped significantly by - 4.28%, leading the decline. The coking coal, steel, and ore, and non - metallic building materials sectors have dropped by more than - 2%, followed closely. The energy and non - ferrous sectors have closed higher against the trend, and the other sectors have all closed lower [16]. 3. Fund Flow - Last week, the funds in the domestic commodity futures market have generally flowed out slightly. The agricultural and sideline products, soft commodities, and grain sectors have seen obvious fund inflows, while the non - metallic building materials, coking coal, steel, and ore, energy, oilseeds, non - ferrous, and precious metals sectors have seen obvious fund outflows [19]. 4. Variety Performance - In the past week, most domestic major commodity futures have closed lower. Among the specific commodity futures variety indices, the top - rising commodity futures varieties are TA, staple fiber, and bottle chips, while the top - falling commodity futures varieties are coking coal, ferrosilicon, and soda ash [24]. 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB commodity index has slightly increased, while the volatilities of the domestic Wind commodity index and the Nanhua commodity index have both slightly decreased. By sector, the volatilities of the commodity futures big - asset categories have shown mixed performance. The precious metals, coking coal, steel, and ore, and chemical sectors have seen slight volatility declines, while the non - ferrous and agricultural and sideline products sectors have seen the most obvious volatility increases [29]. 6. Data Tracking - Internationally, most major commodities have closed higher, with crude oil, soybeans, and corn rising. The BDI has dropped significantly. The trends of gold and silver have diverged, with the silver price rising and the gold price slightly falling, and the gold - silver ratio has declined [32]. - Domestically, the asphalt operating rate has fluctuated, the real - estate sales have been weakly bottom - seeking, the freight rates have continued to decline, and the short - term capital interest rates have risen first and then fallen, with the center of gravity rising [52]. 7. Macro Logic - The stock index has strongly risen and closed higher significantly, with valuations rising collectively and the risk premium ERP under pressure and falling [36]. - The commodity price index has oscillated higher, inflation expectations have rebounded, and the trends of expectations and reality have oscillated [45]. - The US Treasury yields have dropped significantly, with short - term bonds being weaker than long - term bonds. The term structure has a bullish steepening, the term spread has increased, the real interest rate has been under pressure, and the gold price has oscillated at a high level [61]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" has shown resilience. The impact of tariffs on the economy has become initially obvious, and the 10Y - 3M US Treasury spread has fluctuated around 0 [70]. 8. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September has first decreased and then increased. There are expectations of further interest rate cuts in October or December, and the probability of a 50 - bp interest rate cut within the year is high. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 bp to 4 - 4.25% in September is 82.9%, a slight decrease compared to 83.4% a week ago, but the probability has shown a trend of first falling and then rising within the week. The probability of further interest rate cuts in October or December is not high, and the probability of two 25 - bp interest rate cuts (50 bp in total) within the year is the highest, at around 47% [79]. 9. Impact of Powell's Speech - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference on August 22 has released obvious interest rate cut signals, triggering extensive market attention. After the speech, the three major US stock indices have collectively risen, the trading volume has increased, the US Treasury yields have significantly declined, the US dollar index has rapidly dropped, and the international gold price has significantly increased [88][90]. - The core content of Powell's speech includes an assessment of the current economic challenges and a revision of the monetary policy framework. In terms of economic challenges, the labor market is in a "fragile balance" with rising employment downward risks, economic growth has slowed down, inflation pressure exists, and policy - making faces challenges. In terms of the monetary policy framework, it has abandoned the focus on the effective lower bound (ELB), the average inflation target system (AIT), and the "employment shortfall" wording, and emphasized inflation expectation anchoring, conflict - goal balancing, and other aspects [92][104]. 10. Capital Flow Preference - Due to the weakening of the US dollar and the strong performance of the A - shares, funds are favoring RMB - denominated equity assets. The A - shares have strongly risen, breaking through 3800 and reaching a 10 - year high. Although the short - term market of the commodity futures has cooled down, the internal capital of the commodities has been flowing, and the hot sectors have been switching, always exploring investment opportunities around the "anti - involution" theme [8]. 11. This Week's Focus - A series of economic data releases and events are worth noting this week, including German and US economic data, central bank meetings and speeches, and corporate product launches [125].

【冠通研究】 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日 尿素周报：盘面回归基本面 摘要：上周尿素盘面冲高回落，周一开盘低开高走，小幅收涨。周末以 来，上游工厂降价吸单，市场活跃度不高。周末以来，尿素价格呈现震 荡下行波动趋势，需求依旧弱势，今日山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗 粒尿素出厂成交价格范围多在 1650-1680 元/吨，较上周五普遍下滑 60- 70 元/吨。基本面来看，尿素工厂本周计划停车企业多，预计产量继续 下行为主，目前日产维持在 19 万吨左右波动，河南心连心，山西潞安 等本周有检修计划。需求端，近期复合肥工厂开工已至历史同期高位， 后续攀升高度有限，近期受阅兵环保限产的影响，复合肥工厂出现限产 减产情况，开工负荷略有下调，后续将复产，但整体增量有限，需求呈 现韧性，厂内成品库存近两个月位于五年同期高位水平，工厂无出货压 力，集中备肥概率低；其他工业需求也多受环保限产问题而减产停车。 内需不足，产量又增加，库存表现为累库，且目前位于近五年高位，大 量库存压制行情上涨空间。整体来说，本次出口利多情绪基本兑现消化， 而内需不足拖累盘面下滑走弱，九月印标情况或还将对市场有影响。目 前供需呈现双弱，盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is still gambling on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. If the rate cut exceeds expectations, copper prices will fluctuate significantly. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have risen sharply, with the expected probability of a rate cut exceeding 90%. The weakening of the US dollar boosts the prices of non - ferrous metals, and copper prices rebounded on Monday. Fundamentally, both the international and domestic copper markets show a tight supply pattern, and the low - level inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange still supports copper prices. Although the downstream is in a weak state during the off - season, with the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaching, the market generally has confidence in the improvement of demand. Copper prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, significantly higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.8. The manufacturing output and backlog of orders sub - items rose to a nearly two - year high, and the new orders and employment indicators were strong. The factory finished - product inventory indicator rose to the highest level since records began in 2007. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 was 235,000, with an expected 225,000 and a previous value of 224,000. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, with an expected 49.5 and a previous value of 49.8 [10] 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper was generally in a downward - trending oscillation. The highest price of the week was 79,290 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 78,480 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.02%, and the interval decline was 0.47% [14] 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of August 22, the average premium of cathode copper in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 60 yuan/ton. The increase in the number of imported copper squeezed the domestic market. With limited downstream demand and no obvious boost for the time being, the copper premium was under pressure [20] 3.4 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of August 22, the weekly change of LME copper was - 0.05%, closing at $9,725/ton. The spot discount of LME copper strengthened slightly, and the LME copper inventory continued to accumulate. With the rising expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut, LME copper still maintained a discount [25] 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - According to customs data, in July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. As of August 22, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports was 473,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous week. Due to the collapse of the El Teniente mine, Codelco in Chile is expected to reduce its copper production to 316,000 tons in 2025 [31] 3.6 Smelter Fees - As of August 22, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 41.32 dollars/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.14 cents/pound. After stabilizing for several weeks, the TC/RC fees weakened again this period. The mid - year negotiation result of the long - term contract set the TC/RC at 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. Long - term contracts were profitable, while spot contracts were still at a loss. The current sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. The factory's seasonal maintenance plan will still lead to a reduction in production in September and October [35] 3.7 Refined Copper Supply - In July, the output of electrolytic copper in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 7.7673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.82%. The previously shut - down smelters gradually resumed production. Currently, only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - operation smelter in East China has started production, so the output is expected to fluctuate little. In the later part of the third quarter, production may be reduced or halted due to the tight mineral resources and the swelling of sulfuric acid storage. In July, the import volume of refined copper was 336,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.05% and a month - on - month decrease of 110 tons; the export volume was 118,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 69.12% and a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons [39] 3.8 Scrap Copper Supply - In July 2025, the import of scrap copper was 190,100 tons, with a relatively high year - on - year import volume, higher than market expectations. However, due to tariffs, the import of scrap copper from the US decreased significantly, and the scrap copper resources in other regions were also in a tight pattern. The narrowing of the price difference between refined and scrap copper was beneficial to the consumption of refined copper, and the operating rate of scrap - copper rod production decreased [44] 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a historically high level. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. The consumption of refined copper in China is expected to increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026. As copper prices fell, the quantity of downstream replenishment at low prices increased. Although the current increase in copper demand is limited, with the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, copper consumption is expected to increase [48] 3.10 Copper Products - According to Steel Union data, in July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. The market is generally cautious about the consumption of refined copper rods in August. Although a month - on - month increase is expected, the increase in the production schedule of refined copper rods in August is expected to be limited. The production of copper tubes is mainly stable. The weak terminal demand is transmitted from the bottom up, and the change in August is expected to be limited. The operating rate of copper tubes may be boosted after the demand improves in September [53] 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.67 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.11 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 50.8%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. From January to July, the cumulative average utilization of national power generation equipment was 1,806 hours, a decrease of 188 hours compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the investment in power grid projects was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, reaching the highest level in the same period in history. From January to June, the investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The year - on - year increase in solar and wind power was 98.8% and 107% respectively [57] 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 5.358 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. Among them, the investment in residential buildings was 4.1208 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [63] 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - From August 1 - 17, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 502,000, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 12%, with a penetration rate of 58%. As the peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, each new energy vehicle requires 83 kilograms of copper, supporting the expectation of a peak copper season in "Golden September and Silver October" [68] 3.14 Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - The inventory accumulation speed of LME copper has gradually slowed down and has now risen to the median level in the same period in history. The inventory of COMEX copper has gradually reached an inflection point and basically no longer accumulates significantly. As of August 22, the LME copper inventory was 156,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24% and a month - on - month increase of 24.95%. The inventory accumulation speed of COMEX has also gradually slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 271,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08% and a month - on - month increase of 10.58%. On August 21, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 93,200 tons, an increase of 6,400 tons compared with the 14th and a decrease of 1,100 tons compared with the 18th. The bonded area inventory decreased slightly. With the opening of the import window in recent times, the bonded area goods cleared customs and flowed into the domestic market, but the export goods from smelters still arrived and were stored in the warehouse. The inflow and outflow were relatively balanced, so the change was limited. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange started to accumulate slowly. Although it still fluctuated at a low level, it increased by 3,799 tons compared with the beginning of the month. The demand side did not follow up smoothly for the time being, and the low - level inventory still supported copper prices [73][78]

Report Summary Hot News - After Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, traders increased bets on a September rate cut and fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of the year [1] - Three Chinese government departments jointly issued a document to regulate the total volume of rare earth mining and smelting separation [1] - From January to July, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 467.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.4%. Investment from ASEAN increased by 1.1%, while that from Switzerland, Japan, and the UK increased by 63.9%, 53.7%, and 19.5% respectively [1] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued an initiative to resist malicious competition at below - cost prices and blind expansion. The average bid price for Huadian Group's 20GW photovoltaic module procurement was above 0.71 yuan/W [1] - As of the end of July, China's total installed power generation capacity was 3.67 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. Solar and wind power installed capacities increased by 50.8% and 22.1% respectively [1] Key Commodities - Focus on urea, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, and PVC [2] Plate Performance - In commodity sectors, precious metals rose 26.76%, non - ferrous metals 20.99%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.39%, and oils and fats 12.68% [5] Asset Performance - Among major stock indices, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 1.45%, a monthly increase of 7.07%, and a yearly increase of 14.14%. The Hang Seng Index had a daily increase of 0.93%, a monthly increase of 2.28%, and a yearly increase of 26.32% [6][8] - In fixed - income assets, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures all declined [8] - Among commodities, London spot gold had a daily increase of 0.97%, a monthly increase of 2.48%, and a yearly increase of 28.47%. WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.44%, a monthly decrease of 7.83%, and a yearly decrease of 11.29% [8] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.94% daily, 2.32% monthly, and 9.92% yearly. The CBOE volatility index decreased by 14.34% daily, 14.95% monthly, and 18.04% yearly [8]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - Domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with coking coal up over 6%, coke and fuel oil up over 4%, glass up over 3%, and iron ore and butadiene rubber up over 2% [3]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.05% to $3417.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.10% to $38.88 per ounce [4]. - International oil prices rose slightly, with the US crude oil main contract up 0.39% to $63.77 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up 0.21% to $67.26 per barrel [5]. - London base metals all rose, with LME zinc up 1.45%, LME aluminum up 1.43%, LME tin up 1.27%, LME lead up 1.12%, LME copper up 0.87%, and LME nickel up 0.31% [5]. - International agricultural product futures showed mixed performance, with US soybeans up 0.21%, US corn flat, US soybean oil up 2.31%, US soybean meal down 0.66%, and US wheat down 0.42% [7]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 44.83 points to 1415.36, and China Export Containerized Freight Index fell 1.5% to 1174.87 [9]. - The People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on August 25, 2025 [9]. - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to hear a report on the implementation of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies [10]. - Trump threatened to fire Fed Governor Cook if she doesn't resign due to mortgage fraud allegations [10]. - Fed Chairman Powell signaled support for a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September, and traders increased bets on a September rate cut to nearly 90% [10]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the Interim Provisions on the Internet Marketing Management of Futures Companies, effective October 9, 2025 [12]. - As of the end of July, the total installed power generation capacity in China was 3.67 billion kilowatts, up 18.2% year - on - year [13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Last week, PVC social inventory increased 5.09% week - on - week to 852,700 tons, with different trends in East and South China [16]. - The US Treasury sanctioned two Chinese companies for facilitating Iranian oil transportation, and China opposed such sanctions [16]. Metal Futures - Some smelters in Anhui may reduce production due to losses, and production in Henan and Inner Mongolia declined due to raw material shortages [19]. - A 7.5 - magnitude earthquake in the Drake Passage had limited direct impact on Chilean copper mines [19]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued an initiative to maintain market order [19]. - As of August 22, the average market price of polysilicon was 47.4 yuan per kilogram, with a profit of 7.92 yuan per kilogram [20]. - A closed - door meeting on the lithium iron phosphate industry was held in Shenzhen on August 22 [20]. Black - Series Futures - Iron ore inventory at 47 Chinese ports increased by 626,300 tons week - on - week, and daily throughput decreased [22]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.36%, down 0.23 percentage points week - on - week, and daily pig iron output increased slightly [24]. - The steel industry is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend, with domestic steel consumption slowly declining but remaining above 80 million tons before 2030 [24]. - Iron ore and lithium concentrate exports from Port Hedland decreased in July 2025, while manganese ore exports increased [24]. - The operating rate of silicon - manganese enterprises in the South increased, and the national average operating rate reached 46.37%, with daily output at a one - year high [25]. - Coke purchase prices in Shandong and other markets increased [25]. - The maximum volume of coke futures standard warehouse receipts of Wuchan Zhongda Metal Group Co., Ltd. at Rizhao Port was expanded [25]. - Steel social inventory in 21 cities increased in mid - August [25]. - Some Shandong coke enterprises increased production cuts, and the global and Chinese steel production showed different trends in July [27]. - The total steel inventory in the Chinese market increased week - on - week [27]. Agricultural Product Futures - As of August 22, self - breeding and self - raising pig farming was profitable, while purchasing piglets for farming was still at a loss [29]. - Canada's estimated rapeseed production increased by 12.9% to 20.1 million tons, and carry - over stocks doubled [29]. - The Saskatchewan provincial governor of Canada plans to visit China to discuss rapeseed issues [29]. - Pro Farmer estimated higher corn and soybean yields in Iowa in 2025 [30]. - Argentina's 2024/2025 soybean planting area and output were estimated to increase [30]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month [30]. - US private exporters reported corn sales to Spain and Costa Rica [31]. - In the 34th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81% [31]. - The US EPA approved some biofuel exemption applications for small refineries [31]. - Pro Farmer predicted record - high average yields for US corn and soybeans in 2025 [31]. 3. Financial Market Finance - Last week, A - shares continued to rise, with technology - growth sectors leading the gains. Future market trends will be driven by profit improvement [34]. - As of August 24, 978 out of 1688 A - share companies that disclosed 2025 semi - annual reports had year - on - year profit growth, and 288 companies planned to distribute dividends worth 164.698 billion yuan [34]. - Since August 22, over 100 A - share companies announced mid - term dividend plans, supported by policies [34]. - The scale of equity ETFs exceeded 4 trillion yuan, with an increase of nearly 800 billion yuan this year [35]. - High - net - worth individuals and corporate clients are the main participants in the current A - share market. Future investment should focus on specific sectors [35]. - Nearly 70% of quantitative hedge funds had negative returns in the past year [36]. - Some popular track funds faced redemption pressure and potential liquidation, but there are still structural opportunities [36]. - A large - scale asset management product of Galaxy Jinhui Asset Management will be extended until the end of this year and then converted into a public fund [36]. Industry - China's computing power platform is accelerating construction, and the intelligent computing power scale is expected to grow by over 40% in 2025 [37]. - The 33rd Guangzhou Fair ended with 83 signed cooperation projects worth 40.081 billion yuan [37]. - In July 2025, China's electricity market trading volume was 624.6 billion kilowatt - hours, up 7.4% year - on - year, and green electricity trading increased significantly [39]. - From January to July, the added value of five major machinery industries increased year - on - year [39]. - The 27th China Robot and Artificial Intelligence Competition's humanoid robot special competition was held in Hefei [39]. - The total box office of the 2025 summer movie season exceeded 1.1 billion yuan [40]. - Express companies in Guangdong and Zhejiang raised prices for e - commerce customers [40]. - Hubei's first 50 - kilometer cross - city drone logistics route was successfully launched [40]. Overseas - South Korean President Lee Jae - myung and Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru held talks and agreed to promote bilateral cooperation [41]. - Indian Prime Minister Modi will visit Japan from August 29, and Japan may set a goal of 10 trillion yen in private investment in India over the next 10 years [42]. International Stock Markets - Uncertainties in the Fed's rate - cut expectations and Nvidia's upcoming earnings report may affect the US stock market [43]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing of offset printing paper futures and options on September 10, 2025, will fill the gap in domestic cultural paper financial derivatives, providing tools for price risk management in the cultural paper industry chain, and promoting the sustainable development of the industry [4][5]. - The new products will help form a fair market price, improve spot pricing efficiency, and guide enterprises to optimize production plans, matching their risk - control needs and hedging goals [5]. - They will also contribute to the green development of the paper - making industry and enhance China's international pricing influence in the global cultural paper industry [147]. Summary by Directory 1. Product Introduction - Offset printing paper is typically made from bleached wood pulp, with characteristics such as low stretch, uniform ink absorption, good smoothness, and high water resistance. Most of it is double - sided offset printing paper (double - gum paper), accounting for over half of the domestic consumption of uncoated printing and writing paper and about 40% of domestic cultural paper consumption [10][11]. - Its production process includes a stock preparation stage and a paper - making stage. After a series of treatments and processes, the pulp is made into paper rolls or flat paper and then packaged [12]. - It is widely used in books, periodicals, commercial prints, and office supplies. Based on quantitative and brightness, it can be classified into different types [13][16]. - It has weak substitutability with writing paper, lightweight paper, and electrostatic copy paper due to differences in raw materials, performance, and demand scenarios, but strong substitutability with copperplate paper and lightly coated paper because of similar production processes, raw materials, and overlapping demand scenarios [17][18][21]. 2. Industry Chain Overview - **Upstream**: It highly depends on imported wood pulp, with a domestic self - sufficiency rate of less than 40%, and is significantly affected by international pulp futures, exchange rates, and shipping costs. The equipment technology has a high threshold, with key equipment relying on imports [28]. - **Midstream**: It is capital - and technology - intensive, with high investment thresholds. Production is regionally concentrated in East, South, and Central China, bringing cluster and logistics advantages. Future competition will focus on green and high - end products, and the production process has strict technical requirements and high environmental protection costs [31][33][34]. - **Downstream**: Demand is clearly differentiated among high - end, mid - end, and low - end markets. It has strong seasonal fluctuations, with peaks during the textbook printing season (Q2 - Q3) and commercial promotion season (Q4). The low - end market faces pressure from digital substitution [37][39]. 3. Supply and Demand Conditions - **Price Influencing Factors - Raw Material Costs**: Pulp price fluctuations, affected by international pulp prices, domestic pulp mill capacity, and Shanghai Futures Exchange pulp futures prices, directly impact the production cost of offset printing paper [42][43]. - **Price Influencing Factors - Production Capacity and Output**: In 2025, several companies have new production capacity plans. Over the past decade, the domestic output of double - gum paper has generally increased, with significant growth starting in 2021. China is the world's largest producer of double - gum paper, and production capacity is concentrated in East, South, and Central China [46][47][58]. - **Price Influencing Factors - Inventory**: In recent years, the inventory of double - gum paper producers has generally increased. In 2021, imports impacted the domestic market, and in 2024, over - supply led to a significant increase in inventory [60][61]. - **Price Influencing Factors - Imports and Exports**: From 2017 - 2024, China's double - gum paper trade was generally a net exporter, but there was a reversal in 2020 - 2021. The main import sources are Indonesia, Japan, and Russia, and exports cover over 170 countries and regions [63][67]. - **Price Influencing Factors - Demand**: Double - gum paper demand comes from various fields, with textbook demand being the most stable, having strong seasonality. China's double - gum paper consumption shows a slow and unstable growth trend, and the long - term demand may be affected by无纸化办公 and a declining birth rate [68][69][74]. 4. Spot Market Price - From 2020 to 2024, the domestic double - gum paper market experienced two significant price fluctuation cycles. The price was affected by factors such as demand changes, raw material costs, policies, and market supply - demand relationships. Currently, the price is in a low - level oscillation, and the industry has a strong demand for hedging tools [87]. 5. Futures and Options Introduction - **Futures Contract**: The trading unit is 40 tons per lot, with a minimum price change of 2 yuan/ton, a daily price limit of ±4%, and a trading time from 9:00 - 11:30 and 13:30 - 15:00. The delivery grade is double - gum paper with specific quantitative values, and the delivery method is physical delivery [91]. - **Options Contract**: The underlying is the offset printing paper futures contract. It includes call and put options, with a trading unit of 1 lot of the futures contract. The exercise style is American, and the trading time is similar to that of the futures contract [92]. - **Other Trading Matters**: The futures will be listed on September 10, 2025, with specific trading times, listed contracts, and trading rules. The options will be listed on the same day at 21:00, also with corresponding trading regulations [94][103]. 6. Delivery - Related Regulations and Processes - **Fees and Standards**: Delivery fees, warehouse and factory storage rents, and in - and out - of - warehouse fees are specified, with some fees waived until December 31, 2025, for non - high - frequency traders [122]. - **Deliverable Goods and Enterprises**: Deliverable offset printing paper must be a certified brand on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and specific enterprise information is provided [124]. - **Delivery Warehouses and Premiums**: Delivery warehouses are planned to be set up in major consumption and logistics areas, and delivery premiums are determined by the exchange [125]. - **Inspection Institutions**: Designated inspection institutions are to be announced by the exchange [126]. - **Delivery Methods**: They include futures - to - spot, warehouse delivery, and factory delivery, with specific regulations for each method, such as inspection requirements, quality dispute handling, and delivery time limits [134][143].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the urea industry is bearish [1] Report's Core View - The urea futures market showed a downward trend on August 22, 2025, with a cold trading atmosphere. The fundamentals had no significant fluctuations, and short - term bearish sentiment prevailed due to insufficient domestic demand and high inventory levels [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 22, 2025, with a cold trading atmosphere. Spot prices mostly stabilized, and some regions slightly lowered prices. The daily output remained around 190,000 tons, with a narrow - range fluctuation. Domestic demand was insufficient, and the inventory of urea factories was at a five - year high, restricting price increases. The participation in the Indian tender was unclear, and the market sentiment was cautious. The short - term outlook was bearish [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1767 yuan/ton, closed at 1739 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.92%. The trading volume was 209,301 lots, an increase of 3584 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 4237 lots, and short positions increased by 4251 lots [2] - Spot: The futures market declined continuously, and the trading atmosphere was cold. Spot prices mostly stabilized, and some regions slightly lowered prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1720 - 1740 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipt Data - On August 22, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4073, an increase of 500 compared to the previous trading day, with 500 additional receipts from Jilin Yuyuan [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market's mainstream quotation decreased, and the futures closing price dropped. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [9] - Supply: On August 22, 2025, the national daily urea output was 189,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.81% [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to Powell's speech tonight. The fundamental situation has not changed significantly. Supported by the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", there is support below the copper price, and the market is waiting for new drivers [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, the Shanghai copper futures opened high and moved low, showing a relatively strong oscillation. The Jackson Hole meeting is ongoing, and Powell's speech tonight may affect the fluctuation of the US dollar index [1]. - On the supply side, Codelco has raised the estimate of accident losses and lowered the 2025 production target. In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. The port inventory of refined copper concentrate has decreased to a five - year low. The TC/RC fees of smelters have continued to stabilize and rise. Long - term contracts are profitable, while spot contracts are still at a loss. The sulfuric acid price is at a high level in the same period of history, supporting smelter profits. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - production smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the refined copper production will not fluctuate significantly. Smelters may cut or stop production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid stockpiling [1]. - On the demand side, downstream demand is lukewarm. New orders have increased, but the market trading volume has decreased month - on - month. The real estate sector still drags down downstream demand, with a 12% year - on - year decline in real estate development investment from January to July and a 4% year - on - year decline in the sales area of newly built commercial housing. However, the power grid and new energy sectors bring demand resilience. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, reflecting short - term weak demand and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and moved low, showing a relatively strong oscillation, with the closing price at 78,690 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 futures companies were 105,514 lots, an increase of 1,969 lots; the short positions were 102,779 lots, an increase of 3,416 lots [4]. - Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and in South China was 60 yuan/ton. On August 21, 2025, the LME official price was $9,690/ton, and the spot premium was - $79/ton [4]. Supply - Side Information As of August 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $37.65/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.76 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 24,100 tons, a decrease of 1,009 tons from the previous period. - As of August 18, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 87,400 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous period. - LME copper inventory was 156,400 tons, unchanged from the previous period. - COMEX copper inventory was 271,700 short tons, an increase of 1,160 short tons from the previous period [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The market is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. For the copper market, the fundamental situation remains largely unchanged, with support from the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" and the market awaiting new drivers [10]. - The lithium carbonate market is affected by the resumption of production at Yichun Yinli, but demand from power battery factories during the peak season provides some support. The market is volatile and requires cautious operation [11][12]. - Crude oil prices are expected to face downward pressure as the consumption peak season ends and the supply - demand situation weakens. It is recommended to short on rallies [13]. - Asphalt futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile state due to insufficient cost - side support and weak demand [15]. - PP is expected to trade in a range. It is recommended to take profit on the 09 - 01 reverse spread as the 09 contract approaches the delivery month [16][17]. - Plastic is expected to trade in a range, with the improvement in the agricultural film industry potentially providing some support [18]. - PVC is expected to decline in a volatile manner due to weak demand and high inventory pressure [19][20]. - The coking coal market is temporarily in a downward - biased and volatile state, with market sentiment affected by various factors [21]. - Urea is expected to be bearish in the short term due to weak domestic demand and high inventory [22][23]. Summary by Variety Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 22, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Fuel oil and caustic soda rose over 2%, while lithium carbonate fell over 4%. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures mostly fell [6]. - As of 15:16 on August 22, funds flowed into contracts such as CSI 300 2509, SSE 50 2509, and CSI 1000 2509, while funds flowed out of contracts like lithium carbonate 2511, SHFE copper 2509, and SHFE gold 2510 [8]. Copper - The market is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The supply of refined copper is expected to be stable in the short term, with potential production cuts in the later third quarter. Demand is supported by the power grid and new energy sectors but is still affected by the real estate market. The market is waiting for new drivers [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is in a downward - trending shock. The resumption of production at Yichun Yinli eases supply concerns, and demand from power battery factories during the peak season provides support. The market is highly sensitive to industry news [11][12]. Crude Oil - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. OPEC + plans to increase production in September. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of global oil surplus. The consumption peak season is ending, and prices are expected to decline [13]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply has decreased, and demand is affected by factors such as weather and funds. With the decline in crude oil prices, the cost - side support is insufficient, and the market is expected to be weak [15]. PP - The downstream PP开工率 has slightly increased, and the supply may increase with new capacity. Demand is weak in the short term but may be boosted during the peak seasons. The market is expected to trade in a range [16][17]. Plastic - The plastic开工率 has decreased, and the downstream demand is gradually improving, especially in the agricultural film sector. The market is expected to trade in a range [18]. PVC - The PVC开工率 has decreased, and demand is weak, especially affected by the real estate market. Exports are expected to decline, and inventory pressure is high. The market is expected to decline [19][20]. Coking Coal - The price of coking coal has declined. The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by factors such as environmental protection and the steel industry. The market sentiment is volatile, and the market is expected to be downward - biased [21]. Urea - The price of urea has declined. The supply is stable, and domestic demand is weak, with high inventory levels. The market is expected to be bearish in the short term [22][23].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint No information provided. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory - The current total port inventory is 13,845.2, a weekly increase of 25.93 [1]. - The current 247 - steel - mill import ore inventory is 9,065.7, a weekly decrease of 70.70 [1]. - The current 45 - port trade ore inventory is 9,062.33, a weekly increase of 1.8 [1]. - The current 45 - port Brazilian ore inventory is 4,996.89, a weekly increase of 56.05 [1]. - The current 45 - port Australian ore inventory is 6,114.03, a weekly decrease of 13.5 [1]. - Among the port inventory varieties, the current coarse powder inventory is 10,691.95, a weekly decrease of 19.65; the block ore inventory is 1,743.81, a weekly increase of 56.07; the pellet inventory is 307.18, a weekly decrease of 17.51; the iron concentrate powder inventory is 1,102.26, a weekly increase of 7.02 [1]. Supply - The current 45 - port daily average port clearance volume is 325.74, a weekly decrease of 8.93 [1]. - The current 126 - mine iron concentrate powder output is 39.78, a weekly decrease of 1.09 [1]. - The current 45 - port arrival volume is 2,476.6, a weekly increase of 94.70 [1]. Demand - The current 247 - steel - mill import ore daily consumption is 297.84, a weekly decrease of 0.68 [1]. - The current 247 - steel - mill daily average hot metal output is 240.75, a weekly increase of 0.09 [1]. - The current 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 83.36%, a weekly decrease of 0.23 percentage points [1]. - The current 247 - steel - mill capacity utilization rate is 90.25%, a weekly increase of 0.03 percentage points [1]. - The current 247 - steel - mill profitability rate is 64.94%, a weekly decrease of 0.86 percentage points [1].