【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年10月28日 1 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落4.7个百分点至31.1%，较去年同期高了2.4个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅 为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减幅为11.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数上涨，其中道路沥青 开工环比上涨3个百分点至32%，略超去年同期水平，受到资金和部分地区降雨制约。上周，华东地 区炼厂供应增加，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加14.73%至29.07万吨，处于中性水平。沥 青炼厂库存存货比环比小幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位。齐鲁石化炼厂稳定生产，沥青产量 将略有增加。北方多地项目赶工，天气有所转好，市场发货积极，但资金仍有制约。近日中美进行 新一轮的经贸磋商，美国制裁俄罗斯重要石油公司，美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，原油价格低位 反弹幅度较大，近期山东地区沥青基差从高位降幅较大，目前在中性偏高水平，建议沥青期价谨慎 观望。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 今日沥青期货2601合约下跌0.79%至3279元/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - As of the close on October 28, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like apples and rapeseed meal rose, while others such as gold and silver futures declined. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 28, domestic futures main contracts had mixed performance. Apples rose nearly 4%, rapeseed meal rose over 2%, and iron ore, glass, polysilicon, and soybean meal rose over 1%. In terms of declines, gold futures fell over 4%, silver futures fell over 3%, and many other commodities also had varying degrees of decline. Among stock index futures, most declined except for the CSI 1000 stock index futures which rose 0.04%. Treasury bond futures generally rose. In terms of capital flow, some contracts like the 30 - year Treasury bond 2512 had capital inflows, while others like gold 2512 had capital outflows [6][7]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper (Cu)**: The price of copper was pushed up by macro - optimistic sentiment and the tight supply of copper concentrates. However, downstream demand was suppressed by high prices, and social copper inventories increased moderately. With the upcoming US interest - rate meeting and the continuous tight supply of copper mines, the copper price remained strong [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend. Supported by the rising cost of lithium ore and strong demand from the energy - storage battery industry, with both supply and demand being strong and inventories decreasing significantly in September, the price of lithium carbonate was expected to be mainly in a strong - side shock [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ planned to increase production in November, which would intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter. Although the US refinery's operating rate rebounded and inventories decreased, concerns about demand still existed due to factors such as the end of the consumption peak season. The crude oil market was in a supply - surplus pattern, but the price was expected to continue to rebound at a low level [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the expected production in November would also decline. Downstream construction rates mostly increased, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased slightly. Affected by factors such as the rebound of crude oil prices, it was recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [14]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The downstream operating rate of PP rebounded slightly, and the enterprise operating rate increased. The cost increased due to the rebound of crude oil prices, and the supply increased with new capacity put into operation. Although the downstream was in the peak season, the demand was less than expected, and PP was expected to be in a weak - side shock [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The plastic operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate increased. The cost was affected by the rebound of crude oil prices, and new capacity was put into operation. The demand in the peak season was less than expected, and plastic was expected to be in a weak - side shock [18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price was stable. The PVC operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate continued to increase. The export expectation in the fourth quarter was weakened, and social inventories were still high. PVC was expected to fluctuate in the near term [20]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal was affected by supply shortages and demand expectations. The supply was tight due to factors such as domestic production control and mine - operating rate decline, while the demand was pessimistic due to the reduction of steel - mill production. The coking coal market was expected to be in a wide - range shock [21][22]. - **Urea**: The urea futures price closed down. The spot market was stable, and the production was slightly volatile. With the approaching of winter gas - limit production, the production was expected to decline. The demand was relatively weak, and the inventory was in a slow - rising cycle. Urea was expected to be in a short - term low - level shock [23].

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1630 1630 0 河南 1590 1590 0 山东 1610 1610 0 山西 1480 1500 -20 江苏 1600 1610 -10 安徽 1590 1590 0 黑龙江 1620 1620 0 内蒙古 1610 1610 0 河北东光 1610 1610 0 山东华鲁 1630 1630 0 江苏灵谷 1650 1640 10 安徽昊源 1590 1590 0 山东05基差 -149 -160 11 山东01基差 -178 -190 12 河北05基差 -119 -120 1 河北01基差 -148 -150 2 1-5价差 77 72 5 5-9价差 -29 -30 1 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 2970 5288 -2318 中东FOB 370.5 370.5 0 美湾FOB 374.5 374.5 0 埃及FOB 428.5 428.5 0 波罗的海FOB 365 365 0 巴西CFR 410 410 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-8 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 供需宽松难改善，反弹受阻 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 28 日 【行情分析】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1636 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，日内收跌，最 终收于 1635 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅-0.37%，持仓量 273001 手（-8953 手）。 2025 年 10 月 28 日，尿素仓单数量 2970 张，环比上个交易日-2318 张。主 力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-5539 手，空头-6215 手。其中，融达 期货净多单+695 手、中泰期货净多单-649 手；中信期货净空单+2287 手，中金 财富净空单-1014 手。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面：今日国内现货市场稳定为主，工厂多执行前期订单，需求相对 前几日略显疲软。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1530-1590 元/ ...

中国港口原油商业库存（万吨） 日本商业原油库存（万桶） 山东独立炼厂原油厂内库存（万吨） 中国汽油库存（万吨） 中国独立炼厂汽油产销率（%） 中国柴油库存（万吨） 中国独立炼厂柴油产销率（%） EIA美国汽油库存（千桶） EIA美国柴油库存（千桶） 中国原油加工量（万桶/日） 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 免责声明： 引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期货股份有限公司。 冠通期货研究咨询部 苏妙达，执业资格证号F03104403/Z0018167 联系方式：010-85356553 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200 250 300 ...

沥青产量（万吨） 山东沥青产量（万吨） 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇 员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可，任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻 版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期货股份有限公司。 冠通期货研究咨询部 苏妙达，执业资格证号F03104403/Z0018167 联系方式：010-85356553 道路改性沥青开工率（%） 厂内库存（万吨） 库存存货比（%） 稀释沥青港口库存（万吨） 山东沥青毛利（元/吨） 社会库存（万吨） 防水卷材开工率（万吨） 橡胶鞋材开工率（%） 0 10 20 3 ...

Group 1: Hot News - China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, clarifying positions and reaching a framework consensus on resolving urgent economic and trade issues through the Kuala Lumpur economic and trade talks [2] - Tangshan plans a 4 - day 30% production limit on blast furnaces starting from the 27th due to environmental protection requirements [2] - The CSRC issued opinions on strengthening the protection of small and medium - sized investors in the capital market, cracking down on various illegal activities [2] - From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased by 1.63%, 0.22%, and 2.78% respectively compared to the same period last month [2] - As of October 27, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 15.1% from the previous period [2] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are iron ore, rebar, Shanghai silver, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Group 3: Holiday Performance of Overseas Markets - In the night session of commodity futures main contracts, the non - metallic building materials sector rose 3.02%, the precious metals sector 30.37%, the oilseeds and oils sector 9.45%, the non - ferrous metals and soft commodities sectors 2.62%, the coal, coke, steel, and ore sector 13.08%, the energy sector 2.98%, the chemical sector 10.64%, the grain sector 1.11%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector 3.67% [3] Group 4: Sector Positions - Data shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.18% daily, 2.94% monthly, and 19.25% annually; the S&P 500 rose 1.23% daily, 2.79% monthly, and 16.89% annually; etc [5] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.15% daily, 0.31% monthly, and - 0.69% annually; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.12% daily, 0.11% monthly, and - 0.75% annually; etc [5] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index fell 0.48% daily, rose 0.31% monthly, and rose 1.62% annually; WTI crude oil fell 0.16% daily, 1.74% monthly, and 14.63% annually; etc [5] - In other categories, the US dollar index fell 0.12% daily, rose 1.02% monthly, and fell 8.91% annually; the CBOE volatility index remained unchanged daily, rose 0.55% monthly, and fell 5.65% annually [5] Group 6: Trends of Major Commodities - The report presents the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of overnight market trends, important macro and industry - specific news, and financial market developments, covering various sectors such as commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It aims to provide investors with up - to - date information for investment decision - making. Summary by Catalog Overnight Night - market Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed down, with COMEX gold futures down 3.40% at $3997.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 3.61% at $46.83 per ounce [3][46] - U.S. crude oil's main contract rose 0.08% to $61.55 per barrel, while Brent crude's main contract fell 0.25% to $65.04 per barrel [4][47] - Most London base metals rose, with LME zinc up 1.09% at $3058.5 per ton, LME tin up 0.8% at $36090 per ton, etc. [4][48] - U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and wheat all rose, with U.S. soybeans up 2.19%, U.S. corn up 1.12%, etc. [5] - As of 23:00, domestic futures' main contracts showed mixed trends, with iron ore, soybean meal, and rebar rising over 1%, and butadiene rubber and palm oil falling over 1% [6] Important Information Macro Information - As of October 27, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period [9] - Chinese and U.S. diplomatic and trade relations were discussed, with an agreement reached on resolving urgent trade issues [9] - The CSRC issued opinions on strengthening the protection of small and medium - sized investors in the capital market [9][32] - From January to September, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 53732.0 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - Due to the fall in international oil prices, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered on October 27 at 24:00, by 265 yuan and 255 yuan per ton respectively [12][38] - Iraq is negotiating its OPEC quota, aiming for a re - review within its daily capacity of 5.5 million barrels [14] - Inventories of various energy and chemical products such as styrene, pure benzene, and MEG in Jiangsu showed different trends of decline or change [15][16] Metal Futures - A Philippine central bank policy - maker suggested selling part of the "excessive" gold reserves as the gold price is expected to fall [18] - Lithium ore, zinc ingot inventories showed different trends, and the supply and demand situation of nickel and copper in the market was predicted [20] Black - series Futures - Tangshan planned a 30% blast furnace production limit for 4 days due to environmental protection requirements, which would affect iron - water production [22] - Iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports decreased, while global iron ore shipments increased [22] Agricultural Product Futures - A hearing on the anti - dumping case of pork and pork products was announced [25] - Argentina's soybean processing volume in September reached a new high in 11 months [26] - Palm oil and soybean oil inventories in key regions of China increased, and the production and export of Malaysian palm oil showed different trends [26][27] - Brazil's soybean and corn sowing progress was reported [28][29] Financial Market Finance - The CSRC issued work plans to optimize the QFII system and strengthen the protection of small and medium - sized investors [32] - A - shares, Hong Kong stocks rose, with specific sectors performing differently, and QFII's investment trends were analyzed [32][33] - New stocks were to be listed on the STAR Market, and the performance of listed securities firms was expected to grow [36][37] Industry - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered due to international oil price changes [38] - The government was planning to standardize the naming of semi - solid batteries, and Shandong issued a low - altitude information infrastructure plan [39] Overseas - The U.S. and Mexico extended a trade - related agreement deadline, and Argentina's ruling coalition won the mid - term elections [41] - The candidate range for the Fed chair was narrowed, and the U.S. government's debt burden was predicted to increase [41] - Germany's business climate index improved, but corporate satisfaction with the current business situation declined [42] International Stock Markets - U.S., European, and Asian stock markets showed different trends, with specific companies' stock price changes and market - influencing factors analyzed [43][44] - Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway received a "sell" rating [45] Commodities - Precious metal futures fell, oil prices showed mixed trends, and base metals mostly rose [46][47][48] - The LBMA considered changing the frequency of silver inventory announcements, and OPEC + was expected to increase production [48] Bonds - Domestic bond yields fell, and the central bank's open - market operations affected the money market [49] - Regulations on debt - financing tool funds were strengthened, and bond issuance information in different regions was reported [51] - Some companies proposed bond issuance plans [52] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore and offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the U.S. dollar index fell [53] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - A series of economic data such as GDP, consumer confidence index, and housing price index from different countries are to be released [56] - There are various events including central bank operations, press conferences, and corporate speeches scheduled [58]

发布日期：2025年10月27日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 冠通期货研究报告 --2025年11月PVC月度报告 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情回顾 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 数据来源：博易大师 冠通研究 3 PVC上游 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.12个百分点至76.57%，PVC开工率略有减少，但仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续 提升，超过过去两年同期，只是仍是偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价 下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预 期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后， ...

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --11月沪铜月度报告 发布日期：2025年10月27日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 核心观点—沪铜 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 ，2 ➢ 宏观方面：月初因美国政府的停摆加剧了市场不确定性的影响，铜价大幅上行，近期中美马来西亚的会谈形成市场乐观预期，且美国通 胀数据CPI缓于市场预期，市场继续交易降息预期。国内四中全会公报定调"十五五"，重申"以经济建设为中心"，聚焦高质量发展、 科技自立自强、扩大内需和国家安全，目前暂无明显的政策指引影响铜价。 ➢ 供给方面：印尼Grasberg、智利El Teniente、刚果金卡莫阿等接连发生事故或停产，导致全球铜精矿供应短缺，国内铜矿库存连续去 化，TC/RC费用高企，提供铜价上行的驱动力。2025年9月精炼铜产量为126.6万吨，同比增加10.1%，环比下降2.7%，11月产量还有概率 继续走低，原因是有检修计划的冶炼厂5家，且阳极板供应将持 ...