| | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 日涨跌幅% | 月内涨跌幅% | 年内涨跌幅（%） | 近一年走势 | | | 上证指数 上证50 | -1.16 -1.07 | -1.15 -0.52 | 13.78 10.29 | | | | 沪深300 | -0.68 | -0.82 | 13.34 | | | | 中证500 | -1.34 | -2.49 | 19.96 | | | 权益 | 标普500 | 0.51 | -0.19 | 9.63 | | | | 恒生指数 | -0.60 | 1.06 | 26.34 | | | | 德国DAX | 0.46 | -1.29 | 18.51 | | | | 日经225 | -0.88 | -1.82 | 5.12 | | | | 英国富时100 | 0.67 | -0.10 | 12.30 | | | | 10年期国债期货 | 0.21 | 0.32 | -0.70 | | | 固收类 | 5年期国债期货 | 0.17 | 0.20 | -0.76 | | ...

1. 夜盘收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少，沪金、沪银涨超 1%；跌幅方面，焦 煤跌超 3%，焦炭、低硫燃料油、氧化铝、对二甲苯跌超 2%，燃料油、烧碱、原 油、PTA 跌近 2%。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 2.77%，报 63.77 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌 2.53%， 报 67.39 美元/桶。知情人士透露，OPEC+国家将在周日举行在线会议，决定 10 月份的石油产量。如果通过进一步增产计划，OPEC+将开始撤销约 165 万桶/日 的减产，相当于全球需求的 1.6%。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been rising in August, with Powell's speech turning dovish. A September rate cut is almost certain, and the market anticipates two rate cuts this year. After Trump's intervention in the Fed's positions, the market doubts the Fed's independence, causing the US dollar index to decline. The specific magnitude of the Fed's rate cut still needs attention. The US has continued to suspend the implementation of a 24% reciprocal tariff on China for 90 days since August 12. China's August PMI data showed a slight increase, indicating a marginal improvement in economic sentiment [2][55]. - In July, China's imports of copper ore concentrates were around 2.56 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase, and port inventories of concentrates also rebounded from the bottom. After the smelter processing fees showed an upward inflection point earlier, they have continued to decline in recent periods. The sulfuric acid price has reached a high, and its contribution to smelter profits is expected to decline. Smelter maintenance will gradually start in September. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons. Domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline month - on - month in September. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market, and with the expected decline in domestic production in the second half of the year, imported copper will squeeze the domestic market and affect pricing [3][55]. - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons. Although it is currently the off - season for consumption, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities and the growing penetration rate of new energy in the automotive sector are driving copper demand. The downstream electrical appliance production is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. However, due to the impact of the US tariff and trade policies in the first half of the year, the terminal household appliance industry had a rush to export, which over - drew the export demand for the second half of the year. The domestic policy of "replacing old with new" also advanced domestic demand [4][56]. - Overall, the recent overseas trading of the Fed's rate cut expectation and independence issues has led to a decline in the US dollar index, supporting the non - ferrous metal market. Fundamentally, copper production is expected to decline month - on - month after September, and imported copper may increase. With domestic copper inventories still at a low level, copper supply is expected to tighten. Although the demand in the second half of the year is expected to be weaker year - on - year due to the impact of copper tariffs and the over - drawn demand from the previous terminal rush to export, there is an improving trend in the downstream copper products and terminal industries. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [4][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Economic Environment - In the US, the annual rate of the PCE price index in July increased by 2.6%, the same as the previous month. The core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year in July, higher than 2.8% in June. The initial value of new non - farm employment in July was 73,000, lower than the market expectation of 110,000 and far below the monthly average of 168,000 in 2024. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, the same as in January this year and still at a historical low [5]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing climate. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points. The non - manufacturing and composite PMI output indices continued to expand in August. The cumulative social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.12 trillion yuan year - on - year. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and RMB loans increased by 6.9% [7]. 3.2 Copper Supply Data - In the first half of 2025, the global copper mine production increased by about 2.7%, with the concentrate production increasing by 2.8% and the recycled refined copper production growing by 2.3%. The global refined copper consumption increased by about 4.8%, and China's apparent demand is estimated to have increased by about 7.5%. The net import of refined copper decreased by 2.6% [13]. - As of August 29, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 550,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous month. Freeport Indonesia is expected to use 90% of its expiring copper concentrate export quota next month, with a significant expected increase in exports [16]. - As of August 29, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) in China was - 41.25 US dollars per dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.12 US cents per pound. After the smelter processing fees showed an upward inflection point, they have continued to decline in recent periods. The sulfuric acid price has reached a high, and smelter maintenance will gradually start in September [19]. - In August, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 280 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.24%, and increased by 15.59% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to August increased by 978,800 tons, an increase of 12.30%. Five smelters have maintenance plans in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons. SMM expects domestic electrolytic copper production to decrease by 52,500 tons month - on - month in September, a decrease of 4.48%, and increase by 114,700 tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.42% [19]. - From January to July 2025, the total import volume was 2.2223 million tons, a 0.04% decrease from the same period last year. In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper imports were 336,000 tons, a 12.07% year - on - year increase. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market, and with the expected decline in domestic production in the second half of the year, imported copper will squeeze the domestic market [20]. - Since August, the price difference between refined and scrap copper has been widening but is still below the reasonable level. Affected by the new policy in September, downstream copper factories have little intention to purchase for inventory and are only making rigid - demand purchases. In July 2025, scrap copper imports were 190,000 tons, which is lower year - on - year but still at a historical high. Due to the US copper tariff and tight supply in Europe, scrap copper imports are expected to further decline [24]. 3.3 Copper Demand - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons. Despite the current consumption off - season, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities and the growing penetration rate of new energy in the automotive sector are driving copper demand. The downstream electrical appliance production is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [30]. - According to Steel Union data, the operating load of refined copper rod enterprises has dropped to about 60%. The operating rate of copper tubes has also decreased in summer, and the terminal production orders are insufficient. However, the copper foil production has improved due to the demand from the new energy market. The overall operating rate of copper products is 61.6%, and it is expected to increase during the consumption peak season [33]. - From January to June, the investment in power grid projects was 291.1 billion yuan, a 14.6% year - on - year increase, reaching a record high for the same period. The investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. The power grid project is a rigid downstream demand for copper, supporting copper prices [38]. - From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease. The new construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a 19.4% decrease. Although the housing market policies in first - and second - tier cities are being optimized, the market still needs time to stabilize and currently drags down copper demand [40]. - In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a 26.3% and 27.4% year - on - year increase respectively. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, a 39.2% and 38.5% year - on - year increase respectively. After September, the new energy vehicle market will enter the peak season, and with policy support, it is expected to drive consumption and support copper prices [43]. - In July 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 20.597 million units, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the cumulative production was 183.455 million units, a 5.1% cumulative increase. The demand for air - conditioners is currently in the off - season and is expected to increase slightly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. From January to July, the cumulative production of household refrigerators was 59.632 million units, a 5.0% increase, and the cumulative production of household freezers was 15.512 million units, a 1.3% decrease. The refrigerator production is expected to rebound more strongly than air - conditioners during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. However, due to the US tariff policy in the first half of the year, the terminal household appliance industry had a rush to export, over - drawing the export demand for the second half of the year. The domestic policy of "replacing old with new" also advanced domestic demand [45]. 3.4 Inventory - As of September 2, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 158,800 tons, a 12.01% increase from the previous month and a 50.48% decrease from the same period last year. The COMEX copper inventory was 241,000 tons, an 8.24% increase from the previous month and a 600% increase from the same period last year. The global copper inventory increase is due to the release of inventory after the copper tariff implementation. The LME copper inventory has returned to a medium - level for the same period, and the global visible copper inventory is still low, supporting copper prices [48]. - As of September 3, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic copper inventory was 19,500 tons, an increase of 704 tons (4%) from the previous month and an 84.18% decrease from the same period last year. After the copper tariff implementation, the SHFE copper inventory has not increased significantly and is still at a low level. It is expected to remain low during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory has been increasing, but there was a decline last week. With the improvement of the import price ratio, some goods in the bonded area have been cleared and entered the domestic market [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate mainly. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the oscillation range of 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton. Although the demand from compound fertilizer factories has some resilience as the autumn fertilizer peak season approaches, the overall market is still affected by factors such as supply surplus and limited demand growth [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened higher and moved strongly in the day, with the spot market fluctuating narrowly and most factory quotes stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1660 - 1690 yuan/ton. The Indian NFL urea import tender received 29 bids, and the market expects the price to be significantly lower than the previous tender result. In terms of fundamentals, production decreased last month due to summer equipment maintenance, but new production capacity will be gradually put into operation. After the parade, factories are gradually resuming production, and the supply - abundant pattern remains unchanged. On the demand side, overall demand is expected to improve next week after the parade, but the increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories is limited, and the demand for raw materials may be limited. The market will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton range in the medium - term [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1752 yuan/ton, then declined during the day, and finally closed at 1714 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.89%. The open interest was 232,728 lots (+13,346 lots). Among the top 20 main positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 11,057 lots and short positions increased by 7,897 lots. Some futures companies had net long or net short positions, such as Zhongtai Futures with +1,872 net long lots and Huatai Futures with +1,949 net short lots [2]. - **Spot**: The spot market fluctuated narrowly, and most factory quotes were stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1660 - 1690 yuan/ton [1][5]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at 6 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton) [8]. - **Supply Data**: On September 3, 2025, the national daily urea production was 184,400 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 77.92% [9]. - **Enterprise Inventory Data**: As of September 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.095 million tons, an increase of 9,200 tons from last week, a 0.85% increase. The pre - sale order days were 6.41 days, an increase of 0.35 days from the previous period, a 5.78% increase [13]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On September 3, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,205, the same as the previous trading day [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including copper, lithium carbonate, crude oil, asphalt, PP, plastic, PVC, coking coal, and urea, and provides corresponding market outlooks and trading suggestions [9][11][12][15]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - The price of copper is expected to fluctuate strongly. The US ISM manufacturing index contracted, and the new order index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year. The price index hit the lowest level since February. In China, the import of copper concentrates and the port inventory of concentrates have increased, and the processing fees of smelters have decreased. The production of electrolytic copper in September is expected to decline. The import of copper will affect the domestic market. Although the current consumption is in the off - season, the investment in power grid facilities has increased, but the external demand will weaken in the second half of the year, and the domestic demand has been advanced. The decline of the US dollar index supports the non - ferrous metal market, and the copper inventory is low, with supply tightening and demand expected to enter the peak season [9][11]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has decreased. The supply is still relatively loose, with the production in Jiangxi shrinking and lithium spodumene making up for the gap. The import volume in July decreased. The market sentiment is bearish, but the decline space is limited [12]. Crude Oil - It is recommended to short at high prices. The EIA data shows that the inventory of crude oil and gasoline in the US has decreased, and the refinery operating rate is still high. OPEC + will increase production in September, and the global oil surplus is expected to increase. The trade situation between the US and India may affect the global oil trade flow. Although the price has rebounded due to some factors, the supply - demand relationship will weaken after the end of the consumption peak season [13][15]. Asphalt - The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate. The asphalt production rate has decreased, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream demand is affected by factors such as funds, weather, and the price of crude oil. The cost support is limited, and the supply - demand is weak [16]. PP - The PP is expected to fluctuate. The downstream operating rate has increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate is at a neutral level. The cost has rebounded due to the increase in crude oil prices. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and the demand is weak but may be boosted in the peak season. The macro - policy on over - capacity will affect the market [17][18]. Plastic - The plastic is expected to fluctuate. The operating rate has increased, and the downstream operating rate has also increased slightly. The cost has rebounded due to the increase in crude oil prices. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and the demand is weak but may be improved as the agricultural film enters the stocking period. The macro - policy on over - capacity will affect the market [19]. PVC - The PVC is expected to fluctuate downward. The supply is still high, and the downstream demand is weak. The export is expected to decrease, and the inventory pressure is large. The real estate market has not improved significantly. The new production capacity is increasing, and the cost support is not strong [20][21]. Coking Coal - The coking coal is expected to be weak. The price has fluctuated, and the supply has been disturbed recently. The downstream coke production is positive, but the steel mill profit has weakened, and the coke price cut has been proposed but not implemented [22]. Urea - The urea is expected to fluctuate. The spot market is stable, and the Indian import tender price is expected to be lower. The supply is still loose, and the demand is expected to improve slightly after the parade. The compound fertilizer factory's demand for raw materials may be limited, and the inventory has increased. The market will be affected by the peak season demand [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for crude oil [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. Although the EIA data shows a continued reduction in US crude oil and gasoline inventories and high refinery operating rates, OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. EIA and IEA have both raised the forecast of the global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The subsequent consumption peak season is about to end, and the supply - demand situation of crude oil will weaken, so it is advisable to short on rallies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. The end of the seasonal travel peak season, OPEC+ production increase, possible price cuts by Saudi Arabia, and the increase in the global oil surplus forecast will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. Although the price has rebounded due to some factors, the supply - demand situation will weaken later [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 rose 0.69% to 4,932 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 4,864 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 4,960 yuan per ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,177 to 28,983 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory increase to exceed 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, an increase of 800,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast. EIA has lowered the average Brent crude oil price for 2025 from $68.89 per barrel to $67.22 per barrel and for 2026 from $58.48 per barrel to $51.43 per barrel. OPEC maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and raises it for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA raises the global oil supply growth rate for 2025 by 370,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day and for 2026 by 620,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day, and lowers the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day to 680,000 barrels per day. As of the week of August 22, US crude oil inventory decreased by 2.392 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.786 million barrels [3] Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's June crude oil production was adjusted down by 46,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, and its July 2025 production increased by 262,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 27.543 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels per day to 13.439 million barrels per day in the week of August 22. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.15 million barrels per day, with gasoline and diesel demand both increasing month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of US crude oil products to continue to increase by 0.50% month - on - month [4][6]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/09/03 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 地缘风险加剧推升油价，美油主力合约收涨 1.56%，报 65.62 美元/桶；布伦 特原油主力合约涨 1.39%，报 69.10 美元/桶。乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油设施导致 17%产能受损，引发供应中断担忧。 2. 伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME 期铜涨 1.31%报 10013.5 美元/吨，LME 期锌涨 1.17%报 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is expected to be slightly bullish in the near term. Although the demand in the second half of the year is expected to be relatively weak due to tariffs and the pre - empted demand from previous terminal exports, the supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is about to enter the peak season. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate remains abundant, but the production reduction disturbances continue. With high inventory and weak downstream demand, the market sentiment is bearish [11]. - **Crude Oil**: As the consumption peak season is ending and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the supply - demand situation of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies [12]. - **Asphalt**: Under the weak supply - demand situation, asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term due to limited cost support [14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Although the downstream demand is currently weak, the upcoming peak season may bring some improvement. Attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [15][16]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The improvement in the agricultural film industry may bring some boost, but the overall demand is still weak [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations. The fundamental pressure is large, and the export expectation is weak [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The coke price cut has been proposed but not yet implemented, and attention should be paid to the subsequent progress [20]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to fluctuate. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Indian urea import tender [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 2, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, and container shipping to Europe rose over 3%. Lithium carbonate fell over 4%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.69%, IH rose 0.35%, IC fell 1.78%, and IM fell 1.86%. Among bond futures, TS, TF, T, and TL all declined [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:25 on September 2, funds flowed into IC 2509 (3.273 billion), IM 2509 (3.241 billion), and IF 2509 (2.523 billion). Funds flowed out of 30 - year treasury bond 2512 (453 million), Shanghai silver 2510 (438 million), and Shanghai gold 2510 (317 million) [7]. 3.2 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: In September, the domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline. The import of copper will increase, and the demand is affected by policies and previous exports. The price is expected to be slightly bullish [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price declined. The production in August increased, and the import in July decreased. The market was affected by the rumored resumption of a mine [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the supply - demand situation will weaken. The price may decline [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to increase in September. The downstream demand is affected by various factors, and the futures are expected to fluctuate [14]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at low - to - medium levels. The cost is affected by the oil price, and new capacity is being put into production. It is expected to fluctuate [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has increased. The downstream demand is weak, but the agricultural film industry may bring some improvement. It is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is abundant, the export expectation is weak, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to decline with fluctuations [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: An accident led to the shutdown of a coal mine. The import increased in July, and the supply - demand situation is becoming looser [20]. - **Urea**: The price is slightly bullish. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate [22].

【冠通研究】 PVC：低开震荡 制作日期：2025年9月2日 【策略分析】 逢高做空 上游电石价格多数地区稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少1.59个百分点至76.02%，PVC开工 率继续减少，但仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率略有减少，同比往年仍偏低，采购较为谨 慎。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑9月份报价上调10-30美元/ 吨，近期出口签单一般，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50美 元/吨左右，下半年中国PVC出口预期减弱。上周社会库存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较 大。2025年1-7月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、 竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍是历年同期最低水平 附近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率上周有所减少，但仍偏高，本周宁 波镇洋等装置将结束检修。同时新增产能上，50万吨/年的万华化学8月份已经量产，40万吨/年的天 津渤化8月份试生产后，预计9月份稳定生产，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望、20万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. The market is mainly oscillating, with short - term attention on the pressure level of 1754 yuan/ton and medium - term attention on the oscillation range of 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton. The upcoming Indian NFL company's 200 - million - ton urea import tender will affect the domestic market sentiment. The demand of compound fertilizer factories has resilience, which can support the downstream demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market opened higher and moved higher today, showing a strong oscillation. The trading activity in the recent market is low. The price in Shandong region rebounded today after a price cut yesterday to attract orders. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei urea factories ranges from 1660 to 1690 yuan/ton [1][5]. - In terms of fundamentals, due to summer equipment overhauls and environmental protection restrictions caused by the military parade in early September, the output in August decreased month - on - month. However, new production capacity will be gradually put into operation, and factories will resume production after the military parade, so the pattern of loose supply has not changed. On the demand side, affected by the September military parade, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories has declined for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the subsequent increase in operating load will be limited. Currently, the factory's finished product inventory is being depleted, and the finished fertilizer is being transferred to the end - users. The demand for compound fertilizer in Shandong has reached the historical high for the same period, and the possibility of subsequent concentrated fertilizer stockpiling is low. With the finished product inventory higher than the same period last year, the incremental demand for raw materials may be limited. It is expected that the operating load will increase next week [1]. - The inventory continued to accumulate, increasing by 6.19 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 6.05%. As it is about to enter the peak season for autumn fertilizers, the demand of compound fertilizer factories has resilience, which can support the downstream demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1742 yuan/ton, moved higher, and showed a strong oscillation, finally closing at 1746 yuan/ton, with a yin - yang line and a change rate of +0.52%. The trading volume was 219382 lots (-892 lots). Among the top 20 major positions in the main contract, the long positions decreased by 2105 lots, and the short positions increased by 915 lots. For example, Galaxy Futures had a net long position of +781 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of -642 lots; CITIC Futures had a net short position of +3467 lots, and Huatai Futures had a net short position of +1176 lots [2]. - Spot: The recent market trading activity is low. The price in Shandong region rebounded today after a price cut yesterday to attract orders. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei urea factories ranges from 1660 to 1690 yuan/ton [1][5]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the January contract was -26 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton) [8]. - Supply data: According to Feiyitong data, on September 2, 2025, the daily national urea output was 185,600 tons, the same as yesterday, and the operating rate was 78.42% [9]. - Warehouse receipts: On September 2, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7205, the same as the previous trading day [3].