1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The US is planning to lower the so - called reciprocal tariffs on Bangladeshi goods and provide new exemptions for textiles, which will support Bangladesh's clothing industry [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading margin ratios and daily price limit ranges for newly listed contracts of multiple futures varieties [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit ranges and margin standards for lithium carbonate, platinum, and palladium futures contracts starting from February 12th [2] - The growth and moisture conditions of Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean crops have deteriorated significantly, with the proportion of normal - to - good rated crops and suitable - to - optimal moisture areas decreasing [3] - In February, the production of polysilicon decreased significantly month - on - month due to the shutdown of leading enterprises, and some other enterprises also reduced production. Polysilicon inventory increased slightly [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot News - The US will lower the overall reciprocal tariff on Bangladesh to 19% from 20% (last year it was lowered from 37% to 20%), and there is a mechanism for full tariff exemption for specific textiles [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit range of the gold 2605 contract to 17%, and the trading margin ratios for hedging and general positions to 18% and 19% respectively; for the silver 2702 contract, the daily price limit range is 20%, and the trading margin ratios for hedging and general positions are 21% and 22% respectively [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit range of lithium carbonate futures contracts to 15% and the speculative trading margin standard to 17%, and the hedging trading margin standard to 16% from February 12th; for platinum and palladium futures contracts, the daily price limit range is adjusted to 24%, and the trading margin standards for both speculative and hedging are adjusted to 26% [2] - As of February 4th, Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean sowing is completed, but the growth and moisture conditions have worsened. Currently, 75% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good (down 8.6% from a week ago), and 59% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions (down 5.6% from a week ago) [3] - In February, polysilicon production decreased significantly month - on - month due to leading enterprises' shutdowns, and some other enterprises also reduced production. Polysilicon inventory increased slightly as production was insufficient to cover short - term shipments [3] Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, lithium carbonate, platinum, crude oil, coking coal [4] - Night - session performance of sectors: non - metallic building materials rose 2.06%, precious metals rose 34.00%, oilseeds and fats rose 8.44%, soft commodities rose 2.59%, non - ferrous metals rose 25.41%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 10.39%, energy rose 2.69%, chemicals rose 10.71%, grains rose 1.00%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.71% [4] Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily % Change | Monthly % Change | Year - to - date % Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 1.41 | 0.12 | 3.89 | | | SSE 50 | 1.45 | 0.50 | 1.67 | | | CSI 300 | 1.63 | 0.27 | 1.92 | | | CSI 500 | 2.02 | - 0.71 | 11.33 | | | S&P 500 | 0.47 | 0.37 | 1.74 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.76 | - 1.31 | 5.45 | | | German DAX | 1.19 | 1.94 | 2.14 | | | Nikkei 225 | 3.89 | 5.70 | 11.97 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.16 | 1.59 | 4.58 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.58 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.25 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.03 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.51 | - 2.81 | 4.12 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.54 | - 1.72 | 12.23 | | | London Spot Gold | 1.85 | 3.66 | 17.15 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | - 0.08 | 4.51 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 6.26 | - 16.23 | 15.87 | | Other | US Dollar Index | - 0.78 | - 0.27 | - 1.44 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 1.83 | 18.80 | [6] Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The report presents various charts showing the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premiums of relevant stock indices [7]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.10% to $5084.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures surging 8.00% to $83.05 per ounce [4]. - U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil main contracts both increased, with U.S. crude rising 1.37% to $64.42 per barrel and Brent crude climbing 1.59% to $69.13 per barrel [5]. - London base metals all went up, with LME tin leading the gain, rising 6.63% to $49815.0 per ton [5]. - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed results, with caustic soda rising over 2% and some other commodities also posting gains, while styrene and coking coal dropped over 1% [5]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - In January, China's futures market trading volume and turnover increased by 65.09% and 105.14% year - on - year respectively [8]. - As of February 9, 2026, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European Route) dropped 7.5% compared to the previous period [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce will take multiple measures in 2026 to promote the expansion and quality improvement of automobile consumption [9]. - The U.S. White House official expects employment data to decline but not to cause panic [10]. - The U.S. Maritime Administration advised ships to avoid Iranian waters [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of February 9, 2026, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 11.42% [11]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange adjusted the daily price limit and margin ratio for some contracts [13]. - The operating rate of Chinese LOW - E glass sample enterprises decreased by 2.7% [13]. Metal Futures - As of February 9, 2026, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets increased by 2.2 tons [15]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin standards for lithium carbonate, platinum, and palladium futures contracts during the Spring Festival [15]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin ratio and price limit for some contracts [15]. - In Indonesia, some mines' RKAB were fully approved, and the price of far - month futures quotes increased [16]. - Due to production cuts by some enterprises, the output of polysilicon decreased in February and the inventory increased slightly [18]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that gold seemed to be in a typical speculative selling situation [19]. Black - Series Futures - From February 2 to February 8, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, as well as the shipment volume from Australia and Brazil [21]. - The arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased from February 2 to February 8, 2026 [21]. - Australian ports affected by the hurricane resumed operations [21]. - An Ansteel blast furnace will be under maintenance from February 25, affecting the daily iron - making output [22]. Agricultural Product Futures - In Argentina, the soybean sowing in the 2025/2026 season ended, but the crop growth and moisture conditions deteriorated [25]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume reached a near - record high, and is expected to decline during the Spring Festival [25]. - In Brazil, the soybean harvest area reached 16% of the expected area, and the second - season corn sowing area reached 22% [25]. - A U.S. exporter sold 26.4 tons of soybeans to China [26]. - India's palm oil demand is expected to rebound, but the competition from soybean oil will limit its growth [26]. - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume decreased, and the proportion of exports to China increased [26]. 3. Financial Market Financial - On Monday, the A - share market rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.41%, and market turnover increasing [28]. - The Hong Kong stock market also closed higher, but the southbound capital sold nearly HK$1.9 billion [28]. - By the end of January 2026, the number of Chinese billion - dollar private equity managers reached a record high, and most of them achieved positive returns [28]. - A JPMorgan analyst said that if anti - involution is effective, the A - share market may have a "slow - bull" market in 2026 [29]. Industry - The Ministry of Commerce will take measures to promote automobile consumption [30]. - Market regulators introduced new regulations for liquid food transportation [32]. - Chongqing introduced real - estate policies, including housing purchase subsidies [32]. - A global humanoid robot fighting league was launched [32]. - The "companion occupation" emerged, but needs standardization [32]. - Goldman Sachs predicted a severe supply shortage in the global memory market from 2026 - 2027 [33]. - Memory prices increased by 80% - 90% in the first quarter of 2026 [33]. Overseas - The U.S. is reducing tariffs on Bangladeshi goods [34]. - There were political upheavals in the UK [36]. - The U.S. employment growth is expected to slow down [36]. - The U.S. Energy Secretary will visit Venezuela [36]. - The French central bank governor will step down early [36]. - The Japanese Prime Minister proposed food tax cuts [36]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stock indexes closed higher, led by technology stocks [37]. - European stock indexes also rose, supported by sector rotation [38]. - Japanese and South Korean stock indexes soared, driven by different factors [40]. - A short - selling institution apologized for a false accusation against an AppLovin shareholder [40]. Commodities - Multiple exchanges adjusted the price limit and margin ratio for futures contracts [41]. - Hong Kong plans to include precious metals in the preferential tax system for funds and family offices [42]. - International precious metals, crude oil, and base metals futures generally rose [44]. Bonds - The Chinese bond market continued to perform well, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [45]. - Japanese investors' bond - buying behavior changed in 2025 [45]. - Most U.S. Treasury yields declined [45]. Exchange Rates - The on - shore and offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the U.S. dollar index fell [47]. 4. Upcoming Data and Events - There are multiple economic data releases scheduled in different countries, such as Japan's January M2, Singapore's Q4 2025 GDP, etc. [49] - There are also various events, including central bank operations, corporate earnings reports, and official speeches [49]

山东09合约基差(元/吨） 河北09合约基差(元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 仓单 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征 价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送， 。 ，任何机构和 个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期货股份有限公司。 月差 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 仓单数量合计（张） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 1000 2000 3000 主要仓库、厂库仓单数量（张） 432处 安阳万庄库 衡水棉麻库 宁陵史丹利库 中农云仓库 河北 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to fluctuate within a range. The market has policy and maintenance expectations after the Spring Festival, but the PVC market is currently affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and the disk fluctuates greatly, so cautious operation is required [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Affected by devices such as Shandong Hengtong and Henan Yuhang, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.26% week - on - week, continuing a slight increase and at a neutral level in recent years. There are no expected new maintenance devices this week, so the PVC operating rate is expected to change little [4][18] 3.2 Demand - Near the Spring Festival, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 3.33 percentage points week - on - week, and the downstream's willingness to actively stock up is low. The real estate is still in the adjustment phase, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large. As of the week of February 8, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 18.54% week - on - week and is still at a low level in the same period in recent years [4][24] 3.3 Export - After the price increase, the domestic export orders decreased week - on - week, but the previous export rush reduced the enterprise sales pressure [4] 3.4 Inventory - As of the week of February 5, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.71% week - on - week to 1.227 billion tons, 63.28% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and is still at a high level [25] 3.5 Basis - The current 05 basis of PVC is - 211 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a low level [13]

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：节前矿山产量收缩 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 9 日 【行情分析】 焦煤日内低开高走，日内偏弱。春节前焦煤供应进入明显收缩期，且过年 期间蒙煤通关也将受限，部分大型煤矿库存假期内继续发运，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为 86.67%，环比减少 2.46%。原煤 日均产量达到 192.53 万吨。假期临近，矿山安全检查及停产增多，下游冬储备 货收尾中，矿山焦煤库存去化，周度环比减少 2.53 万吨，上周焦化企业累库 67.6 万吨，钢厂累库 9.84 万吨，冬储补库依然在继续，距离春节假期依然有 两周备货时间，库存将继续下沉，但目前已接近尾声阶段。下游钢材成交量不 佳，下游铁水产量环比增加 0.26%，周度日均产量 228.58 万吨。上周印尼削减 产量，暂停现货出口消息发酵后，盘面回调，市场回归供需双弱基本面，下游 成交量低，长协交付为主，供需双弱，焦煤预计偏弱整理为主。 【现货数据】 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1280 元/吨，较上个交易日持平， 蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1037 元/吨，较上个交易日-23 元/吨。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Before the Spring Festival holiday, the order - receiving situation is good but not fully filled, and the price remains stable. After the futures rose on Monday, the order - receiving progress is expected to accelerate. - The gas - fired plants have basically resumed production, and production is normal during the Chinese New Year. Agricultural demand for goods is good, and the peak season for wheat top - dressing after the Spring Festival is approaching. Industrial demand is gradually weakening. - The overall volatility of the macro - market and commodities increased last week, but urea remained relatively stable. After the Indian tender was issued on Saturday, the futures rose on Monday. The probability of spot price reduction before the festival is low, and the futures will fluctuate within a narrow range [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Spot Market Dynamics - Before the Spring Festival holiday, the order - receiving situation is good but not fully filled, and the price remains stable. After the futures rose on Monday, the order - receiving progress is expected to accelerate. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan's prices at the lower end [4]. 3.2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the futures showed a downward - opening and mostly weak - oscillating trend. As of February 9, the main May contract of urea was reported at 1788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the settlement price on January 19. The weekly trading volume was 12.8833 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.4244 million tons; the open interest was 7.5489 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5991 million tons. - After the Indian tender was released on Saturday, the domestic market sentiment improved, and the futures rose. Last week, the increase in urea futures was less than that of the spot, and the basis strengthened. As of February 9, the 05 - contract basis was 2 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 18 yuan/ton. - On February 9, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10860, a week - on - week decrease of 396 [6][9]. 3.3. Urea Supply - From January 29 to February 4, the weekly urea output was 1.4692 million tons, an increase of 14310 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.98%, and the average daily output was 209900 tons. The coal - based weekly output was 1.2428 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%; the gas - based weekly output was 226400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.71%. The small - particle weekly output was 117780 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%; the large - particle weekly output was 291400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. - It is expected that 4 - 5 enterprises will resume production in the next cycle. As of February 9, 2026, the national daily urea output was 210000 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.26%. - The prices of coking coal and anthracite coal are expected to remain stable, and the price of liquefied natural gas has increased. The price of synthetic ammonia has decreased, and the price of urea has increased. The methanol price has remained stable [12][14][15]. 3.4. Urea Demand - As of February 9, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 3230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was basically flat last week. Before the festival, they continued to stock up for production, and the inventory in the factory decreased slightly. The terminal sales were good. The last operating data before the holiday is expected to show a week - on - week decline. As of February 6, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 41.79%, a week - on - week increase of 0.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. - From January 30 to February 6, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.95%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points from the previous period and 7.73 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Before the holiday, downstream panel factories and melamine production entered the holiday mode and are currently at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [17]. 3.5. Inventory Data - As of February 6, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918500 tons, a decrease of 26400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, and 827400 tons lower than the same period last year. The downstream agricultural demand for goods is smooth, but the factory demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and the downstream inventory is still being smoothly reduced, which verifies the tight - balance supply - demand logic and supports the urea market. The port sample inventory was 165000 tons, an increase of 21000 tons from the previous week [20]. 3.6. International Market - India's RCF issued a new round of urea import tender, with a target purchase volume of 1.5 million tons. Under the influence of the new Indian tender, market confidence is boosted, and international urea prices are expected to continue to rise. - As of February 9, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China was 422.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - particle urea in China was 455 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.5 US dollars/ton. The prices in other regions also showed varying degrees of increase [22].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of the close on February 9, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some metals rising significantly and some falling. The prices of various futures varieties are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and seasonal patterns [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on February 9, platinum rose nearly 11%, silver futures rose over 8%, palladium rose over 7%, tin futures rose over 6%, lithium carbonate and gold futures rose over 3%, caustic soda rose over 2%, and international copper and copper futures rose nearly 2%. In terms of declines, styrene (EB) fell over 2%, and log, ferrosilicon, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), manganese silicon, coke, asphalt, and apple fell over 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase. In terms of capital flow, silver 2604, lithium carbonate 2605, and rebar 2605 had capital inflows, while CSI 2603, CSI 1000 2603, and ten - year treasury bonds 2603 had capital outflows [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper Futures - On February 9, copper futures opened high and moved higher. The output in January was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decline of 3.04%. The demand showed an increase in December 2025, but downstream procurement decreased during the holiday. The market is affected by factors such as changes in the Fed's expectations, the proposed improvement of the copper resource reserve system, and the traditional consumption off - season. In the short - term, it will be mainly in a narrow - range shock, and the long - term outlook for copper prices is optimistic [9][10] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, with an intraday decline of nearly 3%. The average price increased slightly. The supply in February will decrease due to maintenance. The export from Chile in January increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The downstream demand decreased during the holiday in February, but is expected to increase in March. The inventory is gradually shifting to the downstream. The price has stopped falling and stabilized, but it is difficult to rise sharply in the short - term, and the market is mainly in a consolidation phase [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected due to winter storms, but the global floating storage is high, and the supply is still in an oversupply situation. Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arabian light crude oil for Asia. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations have ended "temporarily", and the Iranian geopolitical risk is uncertain. The US - India trade and the Russia - Ukraine situation also affect the oil market. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate within a range in the near future [12][13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate decreased last week, and the expected output in February will decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream start - up rate decreased, and the national shipment volume decreased. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly. The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is restricted, but the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining it has increased. Some refineries have resumed production, and the start - up rate has increased slightly. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage [14][16] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of February 6, the downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate also decreased. The proportion of standard - grade drawing production increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation, the supply - demand pattern of PP has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - On February 9, the plastic start - up rate remained stable at a relatively high level. The downstream start - up rate decreased, and the order volume decreased. New production capacity was put into operation in January. The supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18][19] 3.2.7 PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC start - up rate increased slightly, while the downstream start - up rate decreased. The export order volume decreased after the price increase. The social inventory increased, and the inventory pressure is still large. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The PVC is expected to fluctuate within a range due to factors such as policy and maintenance expectations after the Spring Festival [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved high, showing a weak trend. The supply of coking coal has shrunk significantly before the Spring Festival, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal will also be restricted during the Spring Festival. The downstream winter storage is coming to an end, and the inventory is shifting to the downstream. The downstream steel trading volume is poor. The coking coal is expected to be in a weak consolidation state [21][22] 3.2.9 Urea - Urea opened high and moved high, showing a strong trend. The order - receiving situation before the Spring Festival is acceptable, and the price is stable. The gas - based devices have basically resumed production, and the production will be normal during the Spring Festival. The agricultural demand is good, and the industrial demand is weakening. The factory inventory is slightly digested. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected that the spot price is unlikely to drop before the festival, and the futures will fluctuate in a narrow range [23]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has limited improvement. Although the spot market followed up limitedly at the end of January, there is still an expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. Currently, the basis has been repaired, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to the recent new production capacity of plastics and its higher operating rate than PP, coupled with the fact that the concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate rose 0.5 percentage points to about 90.5% and is at a moderately high level, as the overhaul devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's full - density line 2 restarted. PP operating rate rose 0.5 percentage points to about 80% and is at a moderately low level, with the restart of overhaul devices like Maoming Petrochemical's second - line [13]. 2. Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of February 6, the PE downstream operating rate decreased 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, agricultural film orders and raw material inventories continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased, showing a seasonal decline. The PP downstream operating rate dropped 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the lunar calendar over the years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn - wire PP, decreased 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, with orders continuing to decline and slightly lower than last year [4][18]. 3. Plastic Basis - Both spot and futures prices fell, and the basis of the 05 contract slightly rose to - 62 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [22]. 4. Plastic and PP Inventories - The petrochemical early inventory on Friday increased 0.5 tons week - on - week to 42.5 tons, 8 tons lower than the same period of last year. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was depleted rapidly, and the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [26][27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint The market's confidence in the Fed has strengthened after the nomination of Wash as Fed Chairman, leading to a change in expectations for interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. The US dollar has risen, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The copper price oscillated downward last week but stopped falling and stabilized after the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system. In the short term, there is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with the price mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. In the long term, the copper price is optimistic [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro aspect**: Wash's nomination as Fed Chairman has boosted the confidence in the US dollar due to the expectation of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. The US January ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, the highest since August 2022. The January ADP new employment was 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000, indicating weak labor market momentum. Non - farm employment data will be released this week, and Wash's interest rate cut path needs to be monitored [3]. - **Supply aspect**: In January, the copper production was 15,700 tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output of electrolytic copper in China in February will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month (a 3.04% decline) and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. Recycling copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier this year due to high copper prices and low market liquidity. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system and consider including copper concentrates in the reserve [3]. - **Demand aspect**: As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. After the pre - holiday copper price correction, downstream industries replenished raw materials. As the price recovered and the Spring Festival approached, downstream industries entered the holiday mode, and procurement decreased [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend This week, Shanghai copper oscillated weakly, with a weekly high of 105,810 yuan/ton, a low of 97,920 yuan/ton, a weekly amplitude of 7.61%, and a range change of - 3.45% [5]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market As of February 9, the average spot premium in East China was - 10 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 115 yuan/ton. As the copper price corrected, downstream procurement sentiment increased, and the spot discount narrowed [11]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure As of February 6, the LME copper price fell 4.02% during the week, closing at $12,900/ton, with a spot premium of - $60/ton [16]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a 7% month - on - month and 7.2% year - on - year increase. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 30.365 million physical tons, a 7.8% year - on - year increase. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system and consider including copper concentrates in the reserve [20]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply In December 2025, China imported 239,000 physical tons of copper scrap and waste, a 14.81% month - on - month and 9.88% year - on - year increase. Recycling copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier this year, and the operating rate will continue to decline this week, with little market trading [25]. 3.7 Smelter Fees As of February 6, the domestic spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $51.23/dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to decline. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will promote copper smelting capacity governance. The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026, and the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [30]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply In January, the electrolytic copper output was 15,700 tons more than expected and is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month (a 3.04% decline) and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. In December 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a 21.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 5.321 million tons, a 6.4% year - on - year decrease [34]. 3.9 Apparent Demand As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month [38]. 3.10 Downstream Consumption - **Copper rod**: According to Mysteel's survey of 57 domestic refined copper rod sample enterprises, the capacity utilization rate in January was 54.44%, a 3.35% month - on - month and 5.93% year - on - year increase. In February, it was 34.62%, a 19.82% month - on - month and 17.76% year - on - year decrease. Some copper tube enterprises will stop production this weekend [42]. - **Power grid**: As of the end of 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.89 billion kilowatts, a 16.1% year - on - year increase. The solar power installed capacity was 1.2 billion kilowatts, a 35.4% year - on - year increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 640 million kilowatts, a 22.9% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment in power plants above 6,000 kilowatts were 3,119 hours, 312 hours less than the previous year [47]. - **Real estate**: In December, the sales area of new commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a 39.87% month - on - month increase and a 16.58% year - on - year decrease. The sales volume was 880.7 billion yuan, a 44.07% month - on - month increase and a 24.24% year - on - year decrease [53]. - **Automobile**: In January 2026, the estimated wholesale of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. From January 1, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax was changed from exemption to half - collection. The "trade - in" subsidy for heavy trucks and buses continued, and the subsidy for passenger vehicles changed from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy [59]. 3.11 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - As of February 6, the LME copper inventory increased by 8,300 tons to 171,700 tons week - on - week (a 4.74% increase), and was 26.48% lower year - on - year. The COMEX copper inventory was 589,100 tons, a 1.97% week - on - week increase and 488.28% higher year - on - year. - On February 5, the cumulative copper spot inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 120,600 tons, still increasing during the week. As of February 6, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 160,200 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease, and the cathode copper inventory was 248,900 tons, a 6.83% week - on - week increase [64][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market has been in a high - volatility state in the past week, shifting from divergence to a collective correction. Overseas, the divergence on AI has resurfaced, and the sharp correction of technology stocks, Bitcoin, and precious metals led by silver has impacted asset prices and raised investors' risk - aversion sentiment. In the domestic market, due to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, futures exchanges have announced margin hikes, leading to a significant outflow of funds from the futures market [5][10]. - The Fed is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged in March, with a probability of 82.3%. The market expects about two interest rate cuts in 2026 [6][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The capital market was highly volatile last week, with a collective correction. Overseas, the AI divergence affected asset prices. In the domestic market, the approaching Spring Festival led to margin hikes and a large - scale outflow of futures market funds. The BDI index dropped sharply, and most commodities corrected. The domestic bond market rebounded, while the stock index and most commodity categories declined. The Wind commodity index had a weekly change of - 21.16%, with 2 out of 10 commodity category indices rising and 8 falling. Precious metals led the decline, followed by non - ferrous metals with a - 5.07% drop. The energy - chemical sector was dragged down by the fall in crude oil prices, and coal - coking - steel and oilseeds also had notable declines. Agricultural products showed mixed performance [5][16]. - In terms of the futures market's capital flow, there was an overall significant outflow of funds from the commodity futures market. The coal - coking - steel and soft commodity sectors saw the most obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors had significant outflows. The volatility of the international CRB commodity index and domestic commodity indices increased. Most commodity futures categories saw higher volatility, except for the agricultural and grain sectors. The chemical and precious metals sectors had remarkable increases in volatility [6]. - The market's focus in the next week will be on the US non - farm payrolls report and CPI data. The non - farm payrolls report may adjust up to 1 million employment data. The market expects non - farm employment growth in January to be in the range of 60,000 - 80,000. China's January inflation and money supply data are also expected to be released next week. The Middle East situation seems to be stabilizing, with indirect talks between the US and Iran [7]. Large - scale Assets - The capital market was highly volatile last week, shifting from divergence to a collective correction. Overseas, the divergence on AI affected asset prices and raised risk - aversion sentiment. The VIX index rose slightly, the US dollar rebounded, and the RMB remained stable. Both the US and Chinese stock markets were under pressure. In the domestic market, due to the Spring Festival, futures exchanges raised margins, leading to a large - scale outflow of funds from the futures market. The BDI index dropped, and most commodities corrected [10]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market rebounded, the stock index declined, and most commodity categories were weak. The growth - style stocks performed significantly worse than the value - style stocks. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 both fell by more than - 2%, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 fell by about - 1%. The Wind commodity index had a weekly change of - 21.16%, with 2 out of 10 commodity category indices rising and 8 falling. Precious metals led the decline, followed by non - ferrous metals, and the energy - chemical sector was affected by the fall in crude oil prices [16]. Capital Flow - Last week, there was an overall significant outflow of funds from the commodity futures market. The coal - coking - steel and soft commodity sectors had the most obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors had significant outflows [18]. Variety Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures declined with large margins last week. The top - rising commodity futures were polysilicon, alumina, and glass, while the top - falling ones were Shanghai silver, platinum, and Shanghai tin [22]. Fluctuation Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB commodity index increased, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind commodity index and Nanhua commodity index both increased significantly. Most commodity futures categories saw higher volatility, except for the agricultural and grain sectors. The chemical and precious metals sectors had remarkable increases in volatility [25]. Macro Logic - The stock index was weak and declined across the board last week. Growth - style stocks had larger fluctuations and deeper declines. The valuation of the stock index was under pressure, and the equity risk premium (ERP) rebounded from a low level [32]. - The commodity price index fell from a high level, and the inflation expectation declined slightly under pressure [35]. - The US bond yield declined overall, the term structure was stable, the term spread fluctuated narrowly, the real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price fluctuated sharply, first falling and then rising [52]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" fluctuated, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US bonds widened significantly and then fluctuated narrowly [57]. Data Tracking - Most international major commodities declined, the BDI index dropped sharply, the CRB index fell, soybeans and corn rose slightly, and gold, silver, copper, and oil all declined. The silver price plunged, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded sharply from a low level [28]. - The asphalt开工率 declined seasonally, real - estate sales remained weak, freight rates decreased, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated downward [44]. - The US bond interest rate decreased, the China - US interest rate spread rebounded, the inflation expectation rose and then fell, the financial conditions showed signs of bottoming out, the US dollar index declined, and the RMB was strong [55]. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectation - The Fed is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% in March, with a probability of 82.3% (slightly lower than last week's 87.3%). The probability of a 25 - bp interest rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% increased slightly to 17.7%. The market expects about two interest rate cuts in 2026 [65]. This Week's Focus - Monday (February 9): Eurozone February Sentix Investor Confidence Index. - Tuesday (February 10): US December retail sales data, US December import price index. - Wednesday (February 11): China's January CPI, US January non - farm payrolls report. - Thursday (February 12): UK Q4 GDP preliminary value. - Friday (February 13): US January CPI. - Other: The People's Bank of China is expected to announce January money supply data during the week [70].