1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday. High prices are suppressing demand, but terminal demand remains resilient. The supply shortage of copper ore supports the price bottom. It is expected that the domestic refined copper production in October may decline month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand and the Sino - US tariff negotiations. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. It is expected that the spot price of alumina will continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices were slightly stronger yesterday. The supply is stable, and the demand shows resilience in the peak season. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices were slightly stronger, with cost support. The supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, and the demand is moderately recovering. The inventory has started to decline slowly. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain a slightly stronger oscillation in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Due to concerns about a short squeeze in the LME zinc market, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded after hitting the bottom. The supply is abundant, but the increase in domestic zinc smelters in the second half of the year may be limited. The macro - economic environment with high probability of interest rate cuts supports the zinc price. The demand is not exceeding expectations. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will maintain an oscillation in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the supply side is strong. The demand is weak, and the new demand cannot make up for the decline in traditional consumption. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the macro - economic changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market had a narrow - range oscillation. The macro - economic risk has increased, and the ore end has some positive factors. The refined nickel production remains high, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market had a narrow - range oscillation. The macro - economic environment has some positive factors, but the nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the demand in the peak season is not strongly boosted. It is expected that the market will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market was strong. The supply - demand gap remains after entering the peak season. The downstream demand is optimistic. The inventory is declining. It is expected that the market will run strongly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [18][20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 84,955 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 6.66% to 3,145 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; the import volume was 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 20,980 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from the previous day. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2,820 yuan/ton, down 0.35% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 1.12% to 1,809 yuan/ton [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21,900 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import loss was - 6,123 yuan/ton, down 760.42 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin was at 281,000 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 56.00 US dollars/ton, up 50.00% from the previous day [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 370 yuan/ton, up 11.90% from the previous day [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import was 8,714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122,100 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,500 yuan/ton, up 2.04% from the previous day [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 180 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In September, the Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,010 tons, down 3.00% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) average price was 58 US dollars/wet ton, up 1.75% from the previous day [16]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month; the import volume was 12.03 million tons, up 2.70% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 74,350 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 857 US dollars/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 340 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the previous day [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month; the demand was 116,801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Natural Rubber - Short - term macro - atmosphere improves, fundamentals improve, and rubber prices rebound. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak production season of main producing areas and macro - level changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward space; if not, rubber prices are expected to run around 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. Logs - Currently, there is no obvious driving force in the log supply - demand situation. The 01 contract is relatively strong. New rounds of foreign quotes have increased, and subsequent port fees are expected to rise, providing strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the futures price, and the 01 contract may be strong [4]. Industrial Silicon - Some industrial silicon spot prices have decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and futures have fluctuated and closed down by 20 yuan/ton to 8,485 yuan/ton. In September, exports decreased by 8% month - on - month to 70,200 tons, but still increased year - on - year. In October, industrial silicon supply has increased significantly, with inventory risks, and prices will still be under pressure. Although some enterprises in the southwest region have reduced production, the impact on output is small. Considering the possible increase in raw material costs, the price center of gravity is expected to move up in the future. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is relatively stable. On one hand, pay attention to policy implementation and production control; on the other hand, pay attention to whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. Currently, it is mainly in a high - level shock. In November, production reduction in the southwest region during the dry season will relieve the pressure of production growth and support prices. Be vigilant against the risk of inventory accumulation due to insufficient demand [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: Driven by the strengthening of coking coal - related varieties, the soda ash futures price has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Previously, soda ash has been weak, with manufacturers' inventories and mid - stream delivery inventories increasing. The supply is in excess. In the medium - term, downstream demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid - demand level. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds can be continued [7]. - **Glass**: Driven by the strengthening of coking coal - related varieties, the glass futures price has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Manufacturers' sales are average, and prices are continuously decreasing. The trading sentiment reflects that the peak season is not prosperous and the supply is in excess. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and capacity clearance is needed to solve the over - supply problem [7]. Summaries by Directory Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of SCRWF in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.70%. The basis improved by 100 yuan/ton to - 750 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.34% [1]. - The FOB intermediate price of cup - lump in the international market increased by 0.25 Thai baht/kg to 50.45 Thai baht/kg, with a growth rate of 0.50% [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 11.11% [1]. - The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamentals - In August, Thailand's production decreased by 2,000 tons to 460,800 tons, with a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 8,500 tons to 189,000 tons, with a decline of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons, with a growth rate of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12,200 tons to 113,700 tons [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires increased by 26.21 percentage points to 72.72%, and the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 20.56 percentage points to 64.52% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures fluctuated. The 2601 contract closed at 831.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 760 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter [4]. Supply - As of October 17, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week [4]. - This week, 12 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 0 ships from the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 438,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 5% [4]. Demand - As of October 17, the daily average log delivery volume was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis of Main Contracts - The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,350 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 20 yuan/ton to 865 yuan/ton [5]. - The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,650 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 365 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 8,445 yuan/ton to - 8,485 yuan/ton, with a decline of 21,112.50% [5]. - The 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 370 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.37% [5]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon production increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, with a growth rate of 9.10% [5]. - The production in Xinjiang increased by 33,600 tons to 203,200 tons, with a growth rate of 19.78% [5]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 10 tons to 108,500 tons, with a decline of 0.09% [5]. - The social inventory increased by 17,000 tons to 562,000 tons, with a growth rate of 3.12% [5]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of polysilicon increased by 0.2 yuan/kg to 53 yuan/kg and then stabilized; the futures price fluctuated and slightly decreased by 405 yuan/ton to 50,310 yuan/ton, with the futures at a discount [6]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 405 yuan/ton to 50,310 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.80% [6]. - The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 52,235 yuan/ton to - 50,310 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2,713.51% [6]. Fundamental Data - This week, the production of silicon wafers increased by 1.52 GW to 14.35 GW, with a growth rate of 11.85% [6]. - The production of polysilicon remained unchanged at 31,000 tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 253,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.42% [6]. - The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.53 GW to 17.31 GW, with a growth rate of 3.16% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,140 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.72% [7]. - The 2505 glass contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1,236 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.40% [7]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash price remained unchanged at 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - The 2505 soda ash contract increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,308 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.77% [7]. Supply - The weekly production of soda ash increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, with a growth rate of 3.37% [7]. - The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [7]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 346,900 heavy boxes to 6.2824 million heavy boxes, with a growth rate of 5.84% [7]. - The soda ash factory inventory increased by 27,000 tons to 699,100 tons, with a growth rate of 4.05% [7].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - The report provides data on various stock index futures spreads, including spot-futures spreads, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is - 29.17, with a change of 1.10 from the previous day, and the historical 1 - year quantile is 27.40% [1]. - It also shows the quantiles of these spreads over the entire history and the past year, which can help investors understand the relative position of current spreads [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - The report presents information on treasury bond futures, including basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads. For instance, the TS basis is 1.5711, with a change of - 0.0257 from the previous day, and the percentile since listing is 25.00% [2]. - Data on the change compared to the previous trading day and the percentile since listing are provided for each spread type, which can assist in analyzing the market trend of treasury bond futures [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - It offers prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions. For example, the AU2512 contract closed at 952.56 on October 22, down 4.17% from the previous day [4]. - The inventory of some precious metals shows changes, such as the上期所白银库存 decreased by 7.70% from the previous value [4]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - The report provides spot quotes for container shipping, including prices from different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route. For example, MAERSK's price on October 23 was 2239 dollars/FEU, up 1.27% from the previous day [5]. - It also includes container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data such as global container capacity supply, port - related indicators, and overseas economic data [5]. Group 5: Fund Flow and Key Seats' Position Change Daily Report - No useful and relevant information could be extracted from the content of this report [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report -受多头平仓和空头加仓影响，红枣期货主力合约CJ2601上午开盘1小时便跌破3%，随后有所回升，截至10月22日下午收盘，收盘价为11265元/吨，跌幅达1.18%，成交量315011手，持仓量187200，日增 -630，多空博弈剧烈，当前开称价符合预期但减产幅度未定，资金扰动下盘面触底反弹 [1] -新季减产已定性但幅度未定，市场对此争议较大，当前盘面价格较符合小减产概率，若最终为大减产，短期盘面存在进一步上涨机会 [3] -当前新季主流价符合预期，河北销区市场货源供应少量，下游采购积极性提高，预计短期内现货价格以稳为主，关注后续下树进度及价格变化 [5][7] -旧季库存较高，去库进程缓慢，潜在压力或在下树后彰显，当前矛盾更聚焦于新季方面 [6] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs New Season's Production Reduction is Qualitatively Determined but the Magnitude is Uncertain -2025年受前年树体营养消耗和关键生长期高温天气影响，产区一茬坐果一般，不过二茬坐果较好，三四茬花存在补量，据Mysteel初步预测，新季产量在56 - 62万吨，较2024年度下降约20 - 25% [3] -市场对减产幅度争议较大，55万吨附近小减产及40万吨左右大减产分歧较盛，当前盘面价格较符合小减产概率，若最终为大减产，短期盘面存在进一步上涨机会 [3] Current New Season's Mainstream Price Meets Expectations -国庆后新季红枣下树在即，新疆主灰枣产区订园进程较快，受积温及节气影响下树时间较去年提前约一周左右 [4] -主流价格参考6.50 - 8.00元/公斤，优质优价，土枣原料价格更高，今年红枣商品率或在80%附近，质量偏好高于去年 [5] Old Season's Inventory is Digested Slowly and Still Under Pressure -近期部分客商积极出售库存货源以回笼资金备战新季收购，随着天气转凉，下游拿货积极性有所提高，市场交易氛围提升 [6] -截至2025年10月16日，36家样本点物理库存约9009吨，较上周减少158吨，环比减少1.72%，同比增加94.58%，样本点库存继续下降但仍处近几年高位水平 [6] -按正常消费水平来看，最终旧季库存约剩30 - 35万吨，当前矛盾更聚焦于新季方面，旧季库的潜在压力或在下树后彰显 [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Financial Derivatives**: The A - share market rebounded due to the potential easing of Sino - US relations. Treasury bond futures showed a fluctuating upward trend, and precious metals faced a significant one - day decline due to profit - taking. The freight index of container shipping to Europe was expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. [2][5][8][12] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper prices were affected by high prices and macro - factors, showing a volatile trend. Alumina prices were under pressure due to oversupply. Aluminum prices maintained a high - level shock, and the prices of other non - ferrous metals also showed different trends based on their supply and demand fundamentals. [13][18][20][24] - **Black Metals**: Steel prices needed to be adjusted through production cuts to ease inventory pressure. Iron ore prices were expected to be weak due to weak demand. The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by supply and demand and inventory changes, with different trading strategies recommended. [44][48][51][54] - **Agricultural Products**: The demand outlook for US soybeans improved, but domestic soybean and soybean meal prices were expected to be weak. Pig prices rebounded in the short term, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure remained. Corn prices showed a slight rebound. [55][59][61] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Financial Futures**: - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the A - share market rose across the board, and the four major stock index futures also increased. The narrowing of the basis spread of the four major stock index futures was in a narrow - range shock. It was recommended to try to sell put options at the support level lightly or construct a bullish call spread with call options. [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, and the net investment was 6.85 billion yuan. It was recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy. [5][7] - **Precious Metals**: The US government shutdown and geopolitical issues affected the market. Precious metals experienced a significant one - day decline due to profit - taking. In the short term, gold prices had a callback risk, and silver prices followed gold with a downward adjustment space. [8][9][10] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The freight index of container shipping to Europe showed an upward trend on the futures market. The short - term market was expected to be strongly volatile, and it was recommended to buy the main contract below 1700 points. [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The social inventory increased during the peak season, and copper prices were volatile. High prices inhibited demand, and the supply of copper ore was tight. It was recommended to focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan. [13][16][18] - **Alumina**: The market continued to be weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. It was expected that the spot price would continue to be under pressure, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate between 2750 - 2950 yuan. [18][20] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices maintained a high - level shock, with stable supply, resilient demand, and a continuous decline in inventory. The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan. [22][24] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 was expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, with cost support and a slow decline in inventory. The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan. [24][26] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices were volatile, with supply gradually becoming loose and demand not exceeding expectations. The short - term price was expected to be driven by macro - factors, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan. [27][29] - **Tin**: Tin prices rebounded slightly due to the mitigation of the US shutdown risk. Supply was tight, and demand was weak. It was recommended to wait and see. [29][32] - **Nickel**: The nickel price rose slightly, with high production, stable demand in some fields, and increasing overseas inventory. The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan. [32][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel was weakly volatile, with cost support but weak downstream demand. The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 12,400 - 12,800 yuan. [36][38] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures market was in a narrow - range shock, with a supply - demand gap in the peak season and continuous inventory reduction. The main contract was expected to be strongly volatile between 75,000 - 78,000 yuan. [39][43] Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of steel sheets was excessive, and production cuts were needed to reduce inventory. The demand was expected to be weak, and the cost of carbon elements was supported. It was recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and consider arbitrage operations. [44][45][46] - **Iron Ore**: The supply disturbance of iron ore weakened, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The demand was weak, and the price was expected to be weak. It was recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and consider arbitrage. [47][48] - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal was strong, with increased supply after the holiday, and the demand for replenishment increased after de - stocking. It was recommended to buy the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage. [49][51] - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was implemented before the holiday, and the second round was proposed but not yet implemented. The supply was expected to be tight, and the demand was weak. It was recommended to buy the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage. [52][54] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The demand outlook for US soybeans improved, but domestic soybean and soybean meal prices were expected to be weak. The Brazilian soybean sowing was progressing smoothly, and the supply was expected to increase. It was recommended to pay attention to the arrival rhythm. [55][57][58] - **Pig**: Pig prices rebounded in the short term due to the increase in the fat - lean price difference and the entry of second - round fattening. However, the medium - and long - term supply pressure remained, and it was recommended to hold the LH3 - 7 reverse arbitrage. [59][60] - **Corn**: Corn prices rose slightly, with an increase in port inventory. The short - term price was expected to be strong. [61]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report Core View The report presents the basis, spot price, futures price, basis rate, historical quantile, and spot reference of various commodities across different sectors including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemicals, and financial futures on October 22, 2025 [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF601)**: The conversion price of 72 - silicon iron qualified blocks in Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipts is 5528, the previous price was 5474, with a change of 0.99% and a historical quantile of 62.50% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The price is 5950, the previous price was 5746, a change of 3.59% and a historical quantile of 61.30%. The conversion price is 6517 for silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipts [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The price is 3200, the previous price was 3047, a change of 5.02% and a historical quantile of 64.10%. The reference is HRB400 20mm in Shanghai [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The price is 3270, the previous price was 3219, a change of 1.58% and a historical quantile of 40.50%. The reference is Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The price is 835, the previous price was 770, a change of 8.54% and a historical quantile of 52.30%. The conversion price is for 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: The price is 1603, the previous price was 1672, a change of - 4.15% and a historical quantile of 27.76%. The conversion price is for quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The price is 1277, the previous price was 1177, a change of 8.50% and a historical quantile of 51.20%. The conversion price is for S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Mongolian 5) at Shaheyi [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2512)**: The spot price is 85730, the futures price is 85400, the basis is 330, the basis rate is 0.39%, and the historical quantile is 78.33%. The reference is the SMM 1 computer copper average price [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2512)**: The spot price is 20970, the futures price is 20965, the basis is 5, the basis rate is 0.02%, and the historical quantile is 60.00%. The reference is the SMM A00 aluminum average price [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The spot price is 2900, the futures price is 2810, the basis is 90, the basis rate is 3.21%, and the historical quantile is 50.66%. The reference is the SMM alumina average price [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2512)**: The spot price is 21870, the futures price is 21970, the basis is - 100, the basis rate is - 0.46%, and the historical quantile is 33.33%. The reference is the SMM 1 zinc ingot average price [1]. - **Tin (SN2511)**: The spot price is 281300, the futures price is 280870, the basis is 430, the basis rate is 0.15%, and the historical quantile is 63.12%. The reference is the SMM 1 tin average price [1]. - **Nickel (NISE12)**: The spot price is 121700, the futures price is 121180, the basis is 520, the basis rate is 0.43%, and the historical quantile is 82.08%. The reference is the SMM 1 imported nickel average price [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2512)**: The spot price is 13170, the futures price is 12665, the basis is 505, the basis rate is 3.99%, and the historical quantile is 89.91%. The reference is 304/2B 2*1240*C from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fees) [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2601)**: The spot price is 74100, the futures price is 75980, the basis is - 1880, the basis rate is - 2.47%, and the historical quantile is 27.53%. The reference is the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: The spot price is 9350, the futures price is 8505, the basis is 845, the basis rate is 9.94%, and the historical quantile is 57.93%. The reference is the SMM average price [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: The spot price is 986.9, the futures price is 994.1, the basis is - 7.2, the basis rate is - 0.72%, and the historical quantile is 0.20%. The reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) [1]. - **Silver (AG2512)**: The spot price is 11759.0, the futures price is 11805.0, the basis is - 46.0, the basis rate is - 0.39%, and the historical quantile is 11.00%. The reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The spot price is 2870, the futures price is 2889.0, the basis is - 19.0, the basis rate is - 0.66%, and the historical quantile is 32.20%. The reference is the ex - factory price of ordinary protein soybean meal in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The spot price is 8460, the futures price is 8294.0, the basis is 166.0, the basis rate is 2.00%, and the historical quantile is 34.00%. The reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four soybean oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The spot price is 9260, the futures price is 9294.0, the basis is - 34.0, the basis rate is - 0.37%, and the historical quantile is 13.80%. The reference is the delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The spot price is 2480, the futures price is 2321.0, the basis is 159.0, the basis rate is 6.85%, and the historical quantile is 73.40%. The reference is the ex - factory price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Guangdong Zhanjiang [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: The spot price is 10210, the futures price is 9864.0, the basis is 346.0, the basis rate is 3.51%, and the historical quantile is 82.60%. The reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Nantong [1]. - **Corn (C2601)**: The spot price is 2180, the futures price is 2144.0, the basis is 36.0, the basis rate is 1.68%, and the historical quantile is 57.90%. The reference is the flat - hatch price of corn at Xizhou Port [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: The spot price is 2550, the futures price is 2429.0, the basis is 121.0, the basis rate is 4.98%, and the historical quantile is 61.50%. The reference is the ex - factory price of corn starch in Jilin Changchun [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH2601)**: The spot price is 11450, the futures price is 12235.0, the basis is - 785.0, the basis rate is - 6.42%, and the historical quantile is 22.50%. The reference is the ex - factory price of live hogs (outer ternary) in Henan [1]. - **Eggs (JD2512)**: The spot price is 2780, the futures price is 2946.0, the basis is - 166.0, the basis rate is - 5.63%, and the historical quantile is 21.10%. The reference is the average price of eggs in Hebei Shijiazhuang [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: The spot price is 14586, the futures price is 13540.0, the basis is 1046.0, the basis rate is 7.73%, and the historical quantile is 63.70%. The reference is the arrival price of cotton 3128B in Xinjiang [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price is 5810, the futures price is 5438.0, the basis is 372.0, the basis rate is 6.84%, and the historical quantile is 63.80%. The reference is the spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station [1]. - **Apples (AP601)**: The spot price is 8840, the futures price is 8850.0, the basis is - 10.0, the basis rate is - 0.11%, and the historical quantile is 17.10%. The reference is the delivery theoretical price of apples [1]. - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: The spot price is 9600, the futures price is 11380.0, the basis is - 1780.0, the basis rate is - 15.64%, and the historical quantile is 22.30%. The reference is the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX601)**: The spot price is 6431.0, the futures price is 6332.0, the basis is 99.0, the basis rate is 1.60%, and the historical quantile is 12.30%. The reference is the spot price (CFR) of para - xylene at Chinese main ports converted into RMB [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: The spot price is 4330.0, the futures price is 4414.0, the basis is - 84.0, the basis rate is - 2.04%, and the historical quantile is 20.00%. The reference is the market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The spot price is 4100.0, the futures price is 4004.0, the basis is 96.0, the basis rate is 1.05%, and the historical quantile is 75.00%. The reference is the market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF512)**: The spot price is 6285.0, the futures price is 6070.0, the basis is 215.0, the basis rate is 2.19%, and the historical quantile is 74.20%. The reference is the market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spun)) in the East China market [1]. - **Styrene (EB2511)**: The spot price is 6465.0, the futures price is 6438.0, the basis is 27.0, the basis rate is 4.64%, and the historical quantile is 75.20%. The reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: The spot price is 2262.0, the futures price is 2268.0, the basis is - 6.0, the basis rate is - 0.27%, and the historical quantile is 54.00%. The reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang, China [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: The spot price is 1540.0, the futures price is 1609.0, the basis is - 69.0, the basis rate is - 2.24%, and the historical quantile is 5.40%. The reference is the market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in Shandong [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The spot price is 6945.0, the futures price is 6883.0, the basis is 62.0, the basis rate is 1.86%, and the historical quantile is 56.90%. The reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film grade) in Shandong [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: The spot price is 6540.0, the futures price is 6583.0, the basis is - 43.0, the basis rate is - 0.66%, and the historical quantile is 48.20%. The reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (拉丝级, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: The spot price is 4600.0, the futures price is 4699.0, the basis is - 99.0, the basis rate is - 3.7%, and the historical quantile is 32.70%. The reference is the market price (mainstream price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The spot price is 2562.5, the futures price is 2375.0, the basis is 187.5, the basis rate is 5.34%, and the historical quantile is 71.00%. The reference is the market price (mainstream price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in the Shandong market converted to 100% [1]. - **LPG (PG2512)**: The spot price is 4448.0, the futures price is 4091.0, the basis is 357.0, the basis rate is 6.40%, and the historical quantile is 47.80%. The reference is the market price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Guangzhou area [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: The spot price is 3340.0, the futures price is 3157.0, the basis is 183.0, the basis rate is 11.40%, and the historical quantile is 93.40%. The reference is the market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2512)**: The spot price is 11000.0, the futures price

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak with downward - trending futures prices. Supply pressure persists, while demand is sluggish. Short - term spot prices are expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices maintained a high - level oscillation. The market trading atmosphere was weak. With a stable supply and resilient demand, short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [1]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price in range oscillation. Cost support was prominent. With supply constraints and mild demand recovery, short - term ADC12 prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [3]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated. Supply is abundant, and the second - half production increase of domestic zinc smelters is limited. Short - term prices may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [6]. Copper - Copper prices oscillated. Macro factors and supply shortages support prices, while high prices suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 84000 - 85000 support level [8]. Tin - Tin prices rebounded. Supply is tight, while demand is weak. Future price trends depend on the recovery of Burmese supply. If supply recovers well, prices may weaken; otherwise, they will likely oscillate at a high level [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices rose slightly. Macro risks increased, with cost support but inventory pressure. The mid - term supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Macro factors are favorable, but demand is weak, and supply pressure exists. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures oscillated narrowly. After entering the peak season, supply - demand gaps remain. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, with the main contract in the range of 75000 - 78000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.19% to 20970 yuan/ton, while alumina prices in various regions declined [1]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21050 yuan/ton, and some scrap - refined spreads increased [3]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.32% to 21940 yuan/ton [6]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.12% to 85730 yuan/ton [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.46% to 281300 yuan/ton [10]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.33% to 122500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.33% to 122500 yuan/ton, and 304/2B stainless steel prices increased slightly [12][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 0.14% to 74100 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [1]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [3]. - **Zinc**: In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [6]. - **Copper**: In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [8]. - **Tin**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 tons [10]. - **Nickel**: In September, China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 tons, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 tons [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and imports increased by 2.70% to 12.03 million tons [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 tons [17].

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可称的已公开资料，但广发期货时这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及 分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内审仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的急见开不勾成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资器比 投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发明货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货节面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制 。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 | 材产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年10月22日 | | | | 周敦波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 现值 | 前目 | 狱跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | | 3200 | 3200 | O | 153 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | | 3110 | 311 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices fluctuate and closed down 60 yuan/ton to 8,505 yuan/ton. September's export volume decreased by 8% month-on-month to 70,200 tons but remained year-on-year growth. In October, the supply of industrial silicon increased significantly, with a risk of inventory accumulation and price pressure. Although some enterprises in the southwest region reduced production, the impact on output was small, and the supply side still increased due to the increase in Xinjiang's output. Considering the potential increase in raw material costs such as coal prices and the rise in electricity prices in November, the future price center is expected to move up. Currently, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract falls to the low level of 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, one can consider buying on dips [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon rose by 0.2 yuan/kg to 53 yuan/kg, and the futures price fluctuated and slightly rebounded by 375 yuan/ton to 50,715 yuan/ton, with futures at a discount. On the demand side, the output of silicon wafers increased significantly, and the demand for battery wafers was supported by overseas purchases driven by India's ALMM policy and the demand for high - efficiency wafers in domestic centralized projects. It is highly likely that the output will increase in October. Whether the demand can absorb the increased output during the fourth - quarter rush installation and the increase in export orders will have a significant impact on prices. Currently, the polysilicon market is relatively stable. One should pay attention to policy implementation, production control, and whether there is an increase in demand orders. In the future, the supply in the southwest region will decrease during the dry season, which will support prices, but one should guard against the risk of inventory accumulation due to lower - than - expected demand [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash continues to weaken, with manufacturers' inventories and mid - stream delivery inventories increasing, highlighting the surplus. The weekly output is at a high level, and the surplus is obvious compared with the current rigid demand. Most of the inventory has been transferred to the mid - and downstream, and the trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. One can track macro fluctuations and the load - control situation of soda ash plants. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the operation idea is to short on rebounds [4]. - Glass manufacturers' sales are average, and they continue to cut prices. Hubei's price is basically at par with the futures market. In recent days, the futures market has continued to weaken, trading on the logic of a non - prosperous peak season and fundamental surplus. In addition, the mid - stream inventory in some regions remains high without obvious destocking. In terms of industry supply - demand, although the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the LOW - E开工率 remains low without obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the surplus problem. Currently, the futures market has been trading on the non - prosperous peak - season logic. In the medium term, one should pay attention to the spot trading rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the prices of overseas raw materials have been firm recently, and the significant destocking of dark - colored rubber still provides cost support for rubber prices. However, there is a strong expectation that the weather in northeastern Thailand will improve, and the raw material prices are expected to weaken. One should pay attention to future weather conditions. On the demand side, after the "Double Festival" holiday, most of the enterprises that had maintenance have resumed normal production, but the overall market has not shown obvious improvement. To control inventory growth, some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the enterprise equipment will operate stably in the short term, adjusting production according to their own orders. In summary, the short - term macro - environment has improved, and the rubber price has rebounded due to the improvement in fundamentals. One should pay attention to the raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, the rubber price may decline further; if not, the rubber price is expected to operate around 15,000 - 15,500 [5]. Logs - The log futures fluctuated yesterday, with the 2601 contract closing at 838 yuan/cubic meter, up 3.5 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong being 760 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu being 780 yuan/cubic meter. Last week, the inventory decreased. As of October 17, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week. On the demand side, the outbound volume increased. As of October 17, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters from the previous week. On the supply side, this week, 12 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 0 from the previous week; the total arrival volume is about 438,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 5%. Currently, there is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand of logs. The 01 contract is relatively strong. The new round of overseas quotes has increased, and the subsequent port fees are expected to rise, providing strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the futures price, and the 01 contract may be strong [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The spot prices of East China's oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon, SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on October 21 compared with October 20. The basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 increased by 60 to 845, with a 7.64% increase; the basis of SI4210 increased by 60 to 392, with a 17.91% increase; the basis of Xinjiang increased by 60 to 1045, with a 6.09% increase [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread of 2510 - 2511 decreased by 45 to - 40, a decrease of 900%; the spread of 2511 - 2512 remained unchanged; the spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 5 to 55, an increase of 10%; the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 5 to - 10, an increase of 33.33%; the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 15 to - 5, a decrease of 150% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon output increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, an increase of 9.10%; Xinjiang's output increased by 33,600 tons to 203,200 tons, an increase of 19.78%; Yunnan's output increased by 1,400 tons to 59,500 tons, an increase of 2.41%; Sichuan's output decreased by 800 tons to 52,900 tons, a decrease of 1.49%. The national operating rate increased by 6.07 percentage points to 61.94%; Xinjiang's operating rate increased by 13.39 percentage points to 74.00%; Yunnan's operating rate decreased by 5.68 percentage points to 41.71%; Sichuan's operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 44.94%. The output of silicone DMC decreased by 12,900 tons to 210,200 tons, a decrease of 5.78%; the output of polysilicon decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the output of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 46,000 tons to 661,000 tons, an increase of 7.48%. The export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 6,400 tons to 70,200 tons, a decrease of 8.36% [1]. Inventory Change - Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased slightly by 0.01% to 108,500 tons; Yunnan's factory inventory remained unchanged; Sichuan's factory inventory increased by 2.89% to 25,000 tons; the social inventory increased by 3.12% to 562,000 tons; the non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 6.45% to 317,700 tons; the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.92% to 244,300 tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material increased by 200 yuan/ton to 53,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38%; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged; the basis of N - type material decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 2,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.11% [2]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price increased by 375 yuan/ton to 50,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74%. The spread of the current month - the first continuous contract increased by 52,265 yuan/ton to 1,925 yuan/ton, an increase of 103.82%; the spread of the first continuous - the second continuous contract increased by 130 yuan/ton to - 2,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.22%; the spread of the second continuous - the third continuous contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 87.50% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly) - The output of silicon wafers increased by 15,200 tons to 143,500 tons, an increase of 11.85%; the output of polysilicon remained unchanged at 31,000 tons [2]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The output of polysilicon decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the import volume increased by 300 tons to 1,300 tons, an increase of 28.46%; the export volume decreased by 800 tons to 2,100 tons, a decrease of 28.16%; the net export volume decreased by 1,100 tons to 900 tons, a decrease of 56.83%. The output of silicon wafers increased by 30,100 tons to 590,500 tons, an increase of 5.37%; the import volume decreased by 100 tons to 400 tons, a decrease of 17.96%; the export volume remained unchanged at 6,700 tons; the net export volume increased by 100 tons to 6,300 tons, an increase of 1.96%. The demand for silicon wafers increased by 27,200 tons to 613,400 tons, an increase of 4.64% [2]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 253,000 tons, an increase of 5.42%; the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5,300 tons to 173,100 tons, an increase of 3.16%; the polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 140 to 9,290 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Price and Spread - The prices of glass in North China, East China, South China remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly. The 05 basis decreased by 15 to - 76, a decrease of 24.59% [4]. Soda Ash - related Price and Spread - The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly. The 05 basis increased by 6 to 2, an increase of 150% [4]. Supply - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 3.37 percentage points to 88.41%, and the weekly output increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, an increase of 3.37%. The daily melting volume of float glass increased by 2,000 tons to 161,300 tons, an increase of 1.16%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [4]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 5.84% to 62,824,000 weight boxes; the soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74% to 1.6598 million tons; the soda ash delivery inventory increased by 4.05% [4]. Real - estate Data (Month - on - Month) - The new construction area increased by 0.09 percentage points to - 0.09%; the construction area decreased by 2.43 percentage points to 0.05%; the completion area decreased by 0.03 percentage points to - 0.22%; the sales area decreased by 6.50 percentage points to - 6.55% [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex rubber remained unchanged; the basis of full - latex decreased by 340 to - 850, a decrease of 66.67%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton; the non - standard price difference decreased by 240 to - 600, a decrease of 66.67%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber increased by 0.25 baht/kg to 50.45 baht/kg; the FOB intermediate price of glue remained unchanged. The price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna increased by 300 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna remained unchanged. The market mainstream price of raw materials in Hainan decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 to - 5, a decrease of 10%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to 5, an increase of 200%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5 to - 50, a decrease of 11.11% [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 20,000 tons to 458,800 tons, a decrease of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 85,000 tons to 189,000 tons, a decrease of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons, an increase of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12,200 tons to 113,700 tons. The operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 26.21 percentage points to 72.72%; the operating rate of full - steel tires increased by 20.56 percentage points to 64.52%. In August, the domestic tire output increased by 859,000 to 102.954 million; in September, the tire export volume decreased by 671,000 to 5.63 million. In August, the total import volume of natural rubber increased by 46,000 tons to 520,800 tons, an increase of 9.68%; in September, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 80,000 tons to 740,000 tons, an increase of 12.12%. The production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand increased by 67 yuan/ton to 12,717 yuan/ton,

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefins - The supply of PE is increasing steadily, with significant profit improvement, continuous increase in the operating rate, and limited planned maintenance. Overseas inventory clearance at the end of the year also brings impacts, highlighting long - term supply pressure. PP's valuation has been significantly repaired due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil. Although there are more recent overhauls in PP, the new device commissioning pressure in October is large, and the demand side lacks bright performance. The supply - demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. Overall, the macro - environment is pessimistic, and the prices of PP and PE face pressure [2]. Methanol - At the port, due to sanctions, some warehouses do not accept sanctioned vessels, increasing the willingness to hold spot goods. Coupled with supply - side disturbances, the port basis has strengthened significantly. Overseas production has declined, and some devices have stopped. In late October, attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction caused by overseas gas restrictions. Inland supply has a certain bottom - support for prices due to a relatively healthy inventory structure. The demand side is weak. Overall, the price may continue to fluctuate under the supply - demand game, and attention should be paid to the port de - stocking rhythm and the implementation effect of overseas gas - restriction expectations [4]. Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, although there are device overhauls, there are also new production capacity commissioning expectations, and the domestic supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The downstream demand support is limited, and the inventory in East China ports may continue to decline. The price drive is weak in October. For styrene, under the double pressure of inventory and industry profit, some devices are under overhaul, but new devices are about to be commissioned, and the overall supply will remain high. The demand side support is also limited, and the price drive is weak. In the short - term, the price is still under pressure [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply has shrunk compared to expectations due to unexpected overhauls or load reductions of some devices, while the demand has increased. However, overall, the supply - demand is still weak, and the price is in a weak oscillation. For PTA, the spot basis continues to weaken, but the downward space is limited. The absolute price is also in a weak oscillation. For short - fiber, the price is supported in the short - term, but the cost - side support is weak. For bottle - chips, it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period, and it follows the cost - side fluctuations. For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is abundant, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October, with the upper price limit under pressure [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the demand support from the aluminum industry is weak in the short - term, but there may be long - term demand support. The supply is increasing in the short - term, and the price is weak. For PVC, the supply - demand pressure is large, the fundamental contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the price is weak. The cost - side provides bottom support, and short - term short positions can stop profit [8]. Summary by Catalogs Polyolefins Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6883 yuan/ton on October 21, up 4 yuan or 0.06% from the previous day. PP2601 closed at 6283 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.27%. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 5.48%, and that of PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 24.71% [2]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory increased by 27.67% to 48.9 (unit unclear), and social inventory decreased by 0.04% to 54.5. PP enterprise inventory increased by 30.96% to 68.1 (unit unclear), and trader inventory increased by 39.48% to 26.1 [2]. Operating Rate - The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61% to 81.8%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.26% to 44.9%. The PP device operating rate increased by 0.6% to 78.2%, the powder operating rate increased by 5.4% to 39.3%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.2% to 51.9 [2]. Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2268 yuan/ton on October 21, up 2 yuan or 0.09%. The basis of Taicang decreased by 50.00% to - 33 [4]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.33% to 36.09%, and port inventory decreased by 3.36% to 149.1 million tons [4]. Operating Rate - The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.86% to 76.55%, and the overseas upstream operating rate increased by 2.28% to 73.7%. The downstream MTO device operating rate remained unchanged at 86.28% [4]. Benzene - Styrene Upstream Price and Spread - Brent crude oil (December) was at $61.32/barrel on October 21, up $0.31 or 0.5%. The price of pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) decreased by 3.5% to 5450 yuan/ton [6]. Styrene - Related Price and Spread - Styrene East China spot price was 6440 yuan/ton on October 21, up 70 yuan or 1.1%. The EB11 - EB12 spread increased by 81.9% [6]. Inventory - Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 10.0% to 0.90 million tons, and styrene inventory increased by 3.1% to 20.25 million tons [6]. Operating Rate - The Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.1% to 79.2%, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 4.8% to 75.5% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Price - Brent crude oil (December) was at $61.32/barrel on October 21, up $0.31 or 0.5%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $540/ton, up $3 or 0.6% [7]. PX - Related Price and Spread - CFR China PX was at $784/ton on October 21, up $1 or 0.1%. The PX - naphtha spread was $244/ton, down $2 or 0.8% [7]. PTA - Related Price and Spread - PTA East China spot price was 4320 yuan/ton on October 21, up 5 yuan or 0.1%. The PTA spot processing fee was 122 yuan/ton, up 1.8% [7]. MEG - MEG East China spot price was 4075 yuan/ton on October 21, down 25 yuan or 0.6%. MEG port inventory increased by 7.0% to 57.9 million tons [7]. Operating Rate - The Asian PX operating rate decreased by 2.4% to 78.0%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 4.3% to 74.4% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price remained unchanged at 2560.0 yuan/ton. V2509 was at 5125.0 yuan/ton on October 21, down 10 yuan or 0.2% [8]. Overseas Quotation and Export Profit - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda was $380/ton on October 16, down $20 or - 5.0%. The export profit of PVC decreased by 81.5% to 19.0 yuan/ton [8]. Operating Rate - The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 85.5%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 7.0% to 75.1% [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased by 1.1% to 19.5, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 0.1% to 55.6 [8].