厂家 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 1 : 欢迎关注微信公众号 品种 主力合约 板块 点评 操作建议 关税谈判空间仍存。指数仍处低位,关注后续国内 IF2506 对冲政策情况带来修复机会,而下方支撑稳定,再 IH2506 股指 地产链活跃上扬,A股缩量整理 次破位概率极低。建议卖出前低位沪深300在 IC2506 3550点附近,中证1000在5500点附近行权价5 IM2506 月看跌期权收取权利金。 T2506 短期长债利率下行接近前低下行速度放缓,走势进入震荡等待 单边策略上短期建议可以逢调整适当做多。基差策 TF2506 方向指引阶段(10债波动区间处于1.63%-1.67%),但考虑 略上,建议参与各品种正套策略。曲线策略上建议 国债 金融 TS2506 到资金面转松期叠加宽货币预期利多未出尽,期债短期调整后 适当关注做陡 TL2506 有企稳回升动能 欧美市场即将连续休市,黄金建议短线以日内 AU2506 780-790元区间高抛低吸为主:白银在30-34美 贵金属 欧洲央行如期降息 美元止跌 多头获利离场贵金属回落 AG2506 元(7600-8500元)区间震荡 短期情绪低迷,可 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the spot and futures prices, basis, basis rate, and historical quantiles of various commodities on April 18, 2025, including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and stock index futures, enabling investors to understand the market situation of different commodities [1]. 3. Summary According to Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF506)**: Spot price is 5978, futures price is 5658, basis is 320, basis rate is 5.66%, and historical quantile is 91.20% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: Spot price is 5902, futures price is not clearly presented, basis rate is 1.15%, and historical quantile is 37.10% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price is 3160, futures price is 3092, basis is 68, basis rate is 2.20%, and historical quantile is 31.50% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price is 3191, futures information is incomplete [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: Spot price information is about the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder, futures price is relevant to the contract, basis rate is 13.11%, and historical quantile is 65.40% [1]. - **Coke (J2505)**: Spot price is 1520, futures price is 1539, basis is - 19, basis rate is - 1.18%, and historical quantile is 34.06% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Spot price is 1058, futures price is 108, basis rate is 11.31%, and historical quantile is 57.80% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2506)**: Spot price is 76095, futures price is 75780, basis is 315, basis rate is 0.42%, and historical quantile is 72.70% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2506)**: Spot price is 19800, futures price is 19645, basis is 155, basis rate is 0.79%, and historical quantile is 84.16% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2509)**: Spot price is 2870, futures price is 2855, basis is 15, basis rate is 0.52%, and historical quantile is 50.90% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2506)**: Spot price is 22410, futures price is 21990, basis is 420, basis rate is 1.91%, and historical quantile is 93.12% [1]. - **Tin (SN2505)**: Spot price is 257770, futures price is 258100, basis is - 330, basis rate is - 0.13%, and historical quantile is 57.50% [1]. - **Nickel (NISEOR)**: Spot price is 126175, futures price is 126030, basis is 145, basis rate is 0.12%, and historical quantile is 57.70% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2506)**: Spot price is 13370, futures price is 12845, basis is 525, basis rate is 4.09%, and historical quantile is 91.64% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SISEOF)**: Spot price is 10100, futures price is 9455, basis is 645, basis rate is 6.82%, and historical quantile is 50.98% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2506)**: Spot price is 789.2, futures price is 787.3, basis is 1.9, basis rate is 0.24%, and historical quantile is 42.00% [1]. - **Silver (AG2506)**: Spot price is 8143.0, futures price is 8161.0, basis is - 18, basis rate is - 0.22%, and historical quantile is 38.80% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: Spot price is 3140, futures price is 3020, basis is 120, basis rate is 3.97%, and historical quantile is 37.70% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: Spot price is 8080, futures price is 7748.0, basis is 332.0, basis rate is 4.28%, and historical quantile is 40.90% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: Spot price is 9090, futures price is 8204.0, basis is 886.0, basis rate is 10.80%, and historical quantile is 81.80% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: Spot price is 2586.0, futures price is 2450, basis is - 136.0, basis rate is - 5.26%, and historical quantile is 8.30% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI509)**: Spot price is 9470, futures price is 9391.0, basis is 79.0, basis rate is 0.84%, and historical quantile is 11.90% [1]. - **Corn (C2507)**: Spot price is 2303.0, futures price is 2220, basis is 83.0, basis rate is 3.60%, and historical quantile is 11.90% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2507)**: Spot price is 2661.0, futures price is 2650, basis is 11.0, basis rate is 0.41%, and historical quantile is 8.90% [1]. - **Live Pigs (LH2509)**: Spot price is 14900, futures price is 14435.0, basis is 465.0, basis rate is 3.22%, and historical quantile is 56.80% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2506)**: Spot price is 3470, futures price is 3069.0, basis is 401.0, basis rate is 13.07%, and historical quantile is 58.20% [1]. - **Cotton (CF509)**: Spot price is 14032, futures price is 12890.0, basis is 1142.0, basis rate is 8.86%, and historical quantile is 79.90% [1]. - **Sugar (SR509)**: Spot price is 6190, futures price is 5936.0, basis is 254.0, basis rate is 4.28%, and historical quantile is 60.70% [1]. - **Apples (AP510)**: Spot price is 7849.0, futures price is 7600, basis is 249.0, basis rate is 3.17%, and historical quantile is not clearly presented [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ509)**: Spot price is 8300, futures price is 9480.0, basis is - 1180.0, basis rate is - 12.45%, and historical quantile is 54.80% [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene (PX509)**: Spot price is 6233.2, futures price is 6034.0, basis is 199.2, basis rate is 3.30%, and historical quantile is 87.30% [1]. - **PTA (TA509)**: Spot price is 4300.0, futures price is 4294.0, basis is 6.0, basis rate is 0.14%, and historical quantile is 53.00% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2505)**: Spot price is 4175.0, futures price is 4113.0, basis is 62.0, basis rate is 1.51%, and historical quantile is 84.90% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF506)**: Spot price is 6275.0, futures price is 5946.0, basis is 329.0, basis rate is 5.53%, and historical quantile is 92.00% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2506)**: Spot price is 7505.0, futures price is 7367.0, basis is 138.0, basis rate is 1.87%, and historical quantile is 56.00% [1]. - **Methanol (MA509)**: Spot price is 2415.0, futures price is 2238.0, basis is 177.0, basis rate is 7.91%, and historical quantile is 94.20% [1]. - **Urea (UR509)**: Spot price is 1880.0, futures price is 1755.0, basis is 125.0, basis rate is 7.12%, and historical quantile is 49.20% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2509)**: Spot price is 7515.0, futures price is 7140.0, basis is 375.0, basis rate is 5.25%, and historical quantile is 91.60% [1]. - **PP (PP2509)**: Spot price is 7300.0, futures price is 7099.0, basis is 201.0, basis rate is 2.83%, and historical quantile is 71.20% [1]. - **PVC (V2509)**: Spot price is 5033.0, futures price is 4820.0, basis is - 213.0, basis rate is - 4.23%, and historical quantile is 26.30% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH202)**: Spot price is 2500.0, futures price is 2481.0, basis is 19.0, basis rate is 0.77%, and historical quantile is 57.00% [1]. - **LPG (PG2505)**: Spot price is 5098.0, futures price is 4483.0, basis is 615.0, basis rate is 13.72%, and historical quantile is 77.70% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2506)**: Spot price is 3415.0, futures price is 3343.0, basis is 72.0, basis rate is 2.15%, and historical quantile is 70.10% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2505)**: Spot price is 12000.0, futures price is 11115.0, basis is 885.0, basis rate is 7.96%, and historical quantile is 97.50% [1]. - **Glass (FG509)**: Spot price is 1185.0, futures price is 1144.0, basis is 41.0, basis rate is 3.58%, and historical quantile is 52.84% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: Spot price is 1352.0, futures price is 1342.0, basis is 10.0, basis rate is 0.75%, and historical quantile is 24.21% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: Spot price is 14640.0, futures price is 14500.0, basis is - 140.0, basis rate is - 0.97%, and historical quantile is 91.04% [1]. Stock Index Futures - **CSI 300 (IF2506)**: Spot price is 3772.2, futures price is 3710.6, basis is - 61.6, basis rate is - 1.66%, and historical quantile is 3.70% [1]. - **SSE 50 (IH2506)**: Spot price is 2659.5, futures price is 2633.6, basis is - 26.3, basis rate is - 1.00%, and historical quantile is 3.80% [1]. - **CSI 500 (IC2506)**: Spot price is 5557.0, futures price is 5551.2, basis is - 5.8, basis rate is - 0.10%, and historical quantile is 75.80% [1]. - **CSI 1000 (IM2506)**: Spot price is 5839.6, futures price is 5653.8, basis is - 185.8, basis rate is - 3.29%, and historical quantile is 2.10% [1]. - **2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2506)**: Spot price is 99.39, futures price information is incomplete, basis is - 0.07, basis rate is - 0.07%, and historical quantile is 14.90% [1]. - **5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2506)**: Spot price is 106.26, futures price is 101.79, basis is - 0.14, basis rate is - 0.13%, and historical quantile is 5.10% [1]. - **10 - year Treasury Bond (T2506)**: Spot price is 109.01, futures price is 99.27, basis is - 0.05, basis rate is - 0.04%, and historical quantile is 1.40% [1]. - **30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2506)**: Spot price is 136.51, futures price is 119.51, basis information is incomplete, and historical quantile is not clearly presented [1].

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年4月18日 | | | 問敏波 | ZOOTO559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前位 | 涨跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3160 | 3150 | 10 | 29 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3180 | 3180 | 0 | 49 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3220 | 3220 | 0 | 8d | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3022 | 3023 | -1 | 138 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3092 | 3093 | -1 | ୧୫ | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3131 | 3131 | 0 | 29 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | -5 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3200 | 3200 | 0 | -25 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3220 | ...

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月18日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 258100 | 259600 | -1500 | -0.58% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 1150 | 1150 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 258600 | 260100 | -1500 | -0.58% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -264.00 | -290.00 | 26.00 | 8.97% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -7068.36 | -8160.60 | 1092.24 | 13.38% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.27 | 8.2 ...

/ 朝如日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】129 2025年4月18日 | 期货收盘价 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 4月17日 | 4月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 01合约 | 1718 | 1731 | -13 | -0.75% | | | 05合约 | 1768 | 1789 | -21 | -1.17% | 元/吨 | | 09合约 | 1755 | 1767 | -12 | -0.68% | | | 甲醇主力合约 | 2238 | 6362 | -131 | -5.53% | | | 期货合约价差 | | | | | | | 价差 | 4月17日 | 4月16日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 01合约-05合约 | -50 | -58 | 8 | 13.79% | | | 05合约-09合约 | 13 | 22 | -d | -40.91% | 元/吨 | | 09合约-01合约 | 37 | 36 | 1 | 2.78% | | | UR-MA主力合约 | -520 | -6 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 F GF FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王法庭 Z0019938 2025年4月18日 | | | | 原 | | | | 4月14日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 4月15日 | | 现价 江苏一级 8000 8120 -30 -0.37% | | | | 期价 Y2509 7706 7734 -28 -0.36% | | | | 墓差 Y2509 384 386 -2 -0.52% | | | | 现货墓差报价 江苏4月 05+380 05 + 450 -70 - | | | | 仓单 735 735 0 0.00% | | | | 棕櫚油 | | | | 4月15日 4月14日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | 9150 9250 -100 -1.08% 现价 广东24度 | | | | 期价 P2509 8720 8748 -28 -0.32% | | | | 墓差 P2509 430 502 -72 -14.34% | | | | 现货墓差报价 广东4月 05+530 05 +600 -70 - ...

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 律管信公众号 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年4月18日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 4月17日 | 4月16日 | 消失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 三南国富安乱胶(SCRML):下海 | 14500 | 14650 | -150 | -1.02% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -140 | ાર | -155 | -1033.33% | 元/呼 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14400 | 14350 | 50 | 0.35% | | | 非标价差 | -240 | -285 | 45 | 15.79% | | | 品种 | 4月14日 | 4月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 0.00 | 48.30 | -48.30 | -100.00% | | | 胶水:国际市 ...

金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 4 月 18 日星期五 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

焦煤异动点评：供需仍然宽松，焦煤继续探底 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 周敏波 投资咨询: Z0010559 2025 年 4 月 17 日星期四 电 话：020-88818011 E-Mail：qhzhouminbo@gf.com.cn 今日行情：截至 4 月 17 日下午收盘，焦煤期货合约 2505 大跌 4.36%（-39.5）至 866.5，继续创出新 低。自 2024 年 10 月 8 日反弹至 1660 以来，焦煤期货走出持续下跌的弱势行情，市场延续供需宽松格 局。今日大跌主要由于以下几个方面原因： 图：焦煤 2505 合约价格走势 一、供需宽松是焦煤持续下跌的主要原因 经历自去年 10 月以来持续下跌的走势后，现货端在 4 月上旬有一段小幅反弹行情，山西竞拍有 所回暖，但由于库存高企、进口煤冲击和国内煤矿开工高位，市场普遍预期反弹空间不大，阶段性补 库后，从上周五开始竞拍再次出现回落的情况，焦煤市场宽松格局并没有改变。根据国家统计局数 据，1-3 月中国原煤产量 12.03 亿吨，同比增长 8.1%；中国焦炭产量 1.23 亿吨，同比增长 2.4%；中 国生铁产量 2.16 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Production is gradually recovering to a high level, and the weekly output has returned to around 73 - 740,000 tons. There has been a slight reduction in inventory, but with the increase in production, there is still expected to be inventory pressure. The market for soda ash remains under pressure due to the lag in photovoltaic resumption, and the futures market is expected to continue its weak oscillation in the future [1]. - Glass: The spot market is weak, and the macro - level is bearish, which jointly puts pressure on glass prices. The 05 contract is affected by the expansion of the delivery warehouse in Hubei and is showing a weak performance. The 09 contract has a relatively low price, and the market has expectations for stimulus policies, but there is currently no short - term driver [1]. Industrial Silicon The spot price of industrial silicon continues to decline, and the futures price has reached a new low. Supply has a slight increase, demand remains weak, and downstream prices are showing a downward trend, which drags down the price of industrial silicon. There are concerns about inventory accumulation, and the price fluctuation range is further adjusted to 8,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton [3]. Polysilicon The polysilicon futures price has fallen sharply, and the current spot price is at a significant premium to the futures price. There is support from downstream demand in April, but polysilicon inventory has not continued to decline, and downstream prices are starting to weaken. The futures price is expected to have limited room for further decline [4]. Natural Rubber Domestic rubber - producing areas are entering the new tapping season, and overseas areas are also gradually starting to tap after the Songkran Festival. The cost support for rubber prices has weakened. On the demand side, the inventory of semi - steel tires continues to increase, and enterprises are reducing production to control inventory. Short - term rubber prices are expected to face significant pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: Spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The 2505 contract decreased by 0.69% to 1144 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 2.07% to 1181 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 8.16% [1]. - Soda ash: Spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 contract decreased by 0.60% to 1331 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.67% to 1368 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 3.79% [1]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash: The operating rate increased from 82.38% to 88.05%, and the weekly output increased by 3.46% to 737,700 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [1]. - Glass: There is no significant change in the main supply - related data [1]. Inventory - Glass: The inventory in the market decreased by 0.84% to 65,203,000 weight boxes [1]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory decreased by 0.49% to 1.693 million tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 3.08% to 402,700 tons [1]. Real Estate Data New construction area decreased by 2.88% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 20.51% year - on - year, completion area increased by 5.27% year - on - year, and sales area increased by 1.81% year - on - year [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis The prices of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon all decreased, while the basis increased [3]. Monthly Fundamental Data In March, the national industrial silicon output increased by 18.20% to 3.422 million tons, the output in Xinjiang increased by 26.57% to 2.108 million tons, the output in Yunnan decreased by 14.58% to 123,000 tons, and the output in Sichuan increased by 170.59% to 46,000 tons. The national operating rate increased by 13.29% to 57.80% [3]. Inventory Changes Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 4.42% to 226,700 tons, Yunnan factory inventory decreased by 11.40% to 24,100 tons, social inventory increased by 0.66% to 612,000 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.55% to 349,000 tons [3]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower - like material increased [4]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads The PS2506 contract decreased by 0.54% to 40,265 yuan/ton. Some inter - month spreads changed significantly, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increasing by 91.50% [4]. Weekly and Monthly Fundamental Data In March, the polysilicon output increased by 6.66% to 96,100 tons. In February, the import volume decreased by 29.29% to 23,000 tons, the export volume decreased by 72.88% to 16,000 tons, and the net export volume decreased by 130.20% to - 8,000 tons [4]. Inventory Changes Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.39% to 244,000 tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 8.37% to 19.15 GW [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,650 yuan/ton, and the whole - latex basis decreased by 62.50%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.69% to 14,350 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - month Spreads The 9 - 1 spread increased by 7.06%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 21.47%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 138.10% [5]. Fundamental Data In February, the production in Thailand decreased by 37.99% to 3.464 million tons, in Indonesia decreased by 0.50% to 1.976 million tons, and in India decreased by 31.48% to 740,000 tons. The operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 3.23% to 78.52%, and the operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.37% to 66.15% [5]. Inventory Changes The bonded area inventory increased by 0.13% to 620,670 tons, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 49.13% to 77,717 tons [5].