1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline of industrial silicon has slowed down, while polysilicon has slightly corrected. The industrial silicon industry faces a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure. The short - term outlook for polysilicon is positive due to the demand from the rush - installation tide, but the price may be under pressure in the long run [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Price and Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices are generally under pressure. For example, the industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 9,770 yuan/ton on March 21, 2024, down 1.86% from March 14. Some spot prices also showed a downward or stable trend [7]. 3.1.2 Cost Factors - In the southwest production area, due to the dry season, the electricity price is at a high level within the year, increasing the production cost of silicon enterprises. However, the prices of raw materials such as silica and silicon coal are weak, weakening the cost - side support [2]. - As of March 21, the carbon electrode average price was 8,100 yuan/ton, and the graphite electrode was 12,250 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous period. The weak demand from downstream silicon plants and the decline in costs made it difficult to raise electrode prices [35]. 3.1.3 Supply - Xinjiang's large - scale factories are continuously resuming production, and some silicon furnaces in Sichuan have started trial operation. The overall number of operating furnaces has increased, and the supply of industrial silicon maintains an increasing trend. In the week of March 20, the operating rate of silicon enterprises increased, and the weekly operating furnace rate of the industry was 31.66% [2][42][43]. 3.1.4 Demand - Downstream industries have a strong wait - and - see attitude, and the market transactions are light. Polysilicon factories maintain a large - scale production reduction situation, and the demand for industrial silicon is weak. Organic silicon enterprises mostly reduce production, and the procurement of industrial silicon has decreased. The aluminum - silicon alloy's start - up is stable, and the procurement price of industrial silicon is low [2]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The social inventory of industrial silicon remains at a high level, and the short - term de - stocking pressure is large. As of March 21, the total industrial silicon social inventory (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 591,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous period [2][123]. 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Production - The polysilicon industry maintains a production reduction situation. In February, the polysilicon output was 90,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.72% [72]. 3.2.2 Demand - The terminal rush - installation drives the photovoltaic industry to develop steadily. Considering the impact of the rush - installation tide, the industry has adjusted the production quotas for the second quarter. The silicon wafer quota has been adjusted to about 190GW, and the battery cell quota to about 180GW. The silicon wafer production from April to May is expected to increase, which may drive the demand for upstream silicon materials [2]. 3.2.3 Price - The polysilicon price is relatively stable. As of March 21, the average price of N - type polysilicon was 40 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The prices of re - feeding materials, dense materials, and cauliflower materials also remained unchanged [7]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of March 23, the total polysilicon inventory was 253,000 tons, a decrease from the previous period [72]. 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Supply - Most organic silicon manufacturers maintain reduced production, resulting in a tight supply situation. In February, the Chinese DMC start - up rate was 67.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.18 percentage points, and the DMC output was 199,500 tons, a month - on - month decline [96]. 3.3.2 Price - The organic silicon price is firm, but the increase has slowed down. As of March 21, the average price of DMC was 14,600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%; the average price of 107 glue was 14,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.43%; and the average price of silicone oil was 16,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.19% [102]. 3.4 Aluminum - Silicon Alloy 3.4.1 Production - The start - up of the aluminum - silicon alloy industry is stable. In the week of March 20, the start - up rate of primary aluminum - silicon alloy was 55.8%, and the start - up rate of recycled aluminum - silicon alloy was 56.5%, both remaining unchanged from the previous period [108]. 3.4.2 Price - The price of aluminum - silicon alloy has declined. As of March 21, the average price of ADC12 was 21,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%; the average price of A356 was 21,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47% [111].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250325:现货继续上行 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 单位 2025/3/24 2025/3/21 | | | | | 英化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1855.00 1853.00 1900.00 1760.00 | 1873.00 1841.00 1890.00 1750.00 | -18.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 | -0.96% 0.65% 0.53% 0.57% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1862.00 | 1879.00 | -17.00 | -0.90% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1890.00 | 1870.00 | 20.00 | 1.07% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | (小顆粒) | | 河北 | 元/吨 | 19 ...

| 甲醇日评20250325:利多驱动有限 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 变化值 | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/3/24 | 2025/3/21 | (绝对目) | (相对值) | | | 2526.00 | MA01 | 2501.00 | 元/吨 | 25.00 | 1.00% | | | | | 元/吨 | 1.29% | MA05 | 33.00 | 2587.00 | 2554.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 2452.00 | 1.20% | 元/吨 | 2423.00 | 29.00 | | | | | 元/吨 | 2715.00 | 2690.00 | 0.93% | 太仓 | 25.00 | | | | | 元/吨 | 山东 | 2515.00 | 2515.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | | | | | 元/吨 | 广东 | 2675.00 | 2660.00 | 15.00 | 0.56% | 期现价格 | 甲 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market has an oversupply and weak demand situation, with heavy market wait - and - see sentiment, light spot trading, and a downward trend in both spot and futures prices. It is expected that silicon prices will remain weak at low levels, and attention should be paid to the impact of silicon plant production cuts and polysilicon plant restarts on silicon prices [1] - The polysilicon market is currently stable, with inventory slightly decreasing. Although self - disciplined production cuts support prices, the downstream is in the off - season, and there is resistance to continuous price increases. Considering the terminal rush - to - install and demand recovery expectations, one can consider going long at low prices or buying call options [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 10,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 11,150 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.87% to 9,855 yuan/ton [1] Supply - With the continuous decline of silicon prices, the production starts of silicon enterprises of different scales and regions are diverging. The production starts of leading silicon enterprises in Xinjiang and enterprises with integrated production capacity are increasing steadily, while the production willingness of small and medium - sized silicon enterprises in the north is decreasing, and some enterprises in Sichuan are increasing production [1] - There is an expectation of new production capacity investment, and the supply side shows an increasing trend, with factory inventories continuously accumulating [1] Demand - Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some monomer plants in the organic silicon sector have maintenance plans, with expected output decline and weak demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises are in the post - holiday resumption of production, with stable and increasing production starts [1] Polysilicon Price - N - type dense material remained unchanged at 40 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feed material remained unchanged at 36 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material remained unchanged at 34.5 yuan/kg, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained unchanged at 33.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.29% to 43,640 yuan/ton [1] Supply - Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and the output of leading enterprises has reached the lowest level. In February, the output decreased slightly to 90,100 tons due to fewer natural days, and it is expected that the output increase in March will be limited, with monthly output remaining below 100,000 tons [1] Demand - In February, component enterprises produced as needed, with a decline in production scheduling. It is expected that component production will increase from March to April. Affected by the rush - to - install tide, the supply of batteries is in short supply, and the factory inventory has dropped below the safety level. The production start of the silicon wafer sector is expected to change little in March, with limited incremental demand for polysilicon [1] Market News - On March 21, the winning bidder of Guohua Investment's first batch of photovoltaic component equipment centralized procurement in 2025 was Tongwei Co., Ltd., with a winning bid price of 4,097,811,987.9 yuan and a unit price of 0.699 yuan/W [1] - According to SMM statistics, the domestic polysilicon import volume in February was 3,128.13 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.10%, and the cumulative import volume in 2025 was 5,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.60% [1] - According to SMM statistics, the domestic photovoltaic component export value in February was 10.364 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 28.10%, and the cumulative import and export value in 2025 was 24.774 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 34.60% [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For lead, the production of primary and secondary lead is steadily resuming, with the transfer of primary lead delivery making the spot market supply tight and the discount of secondary lead expanding. The lead futures remain at a high level. The short - term opening of the import window may bring in some imported crude lead, and attention should be paid to its impact on supply and inventory. The lead price is supported by high scrap battery prices but limited by weak demand [1]. - For zinc, as the macro - sentiment fades, the zinc market returns to fundamental control. The supply of zinc ingots shows a strong increasing trend in March, the demand is in the recovery stage, and the cost - side support weakens. Considering that there is no significant inventory build - up, the zinc price will mainly fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 17,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract rose 1.38% to 17,670 yuan/ton. The Shanghai lead basis was - 370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton [1]. - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 81,519 lots, an increase of 8.03%, and the open interest was 66,597 lots, an increase of 8.48%. The LME lead inventory was 232,250 tons, unchanged [1]. Supply - side Information - Primary lead smelters have basically resumed production, and the electrolytic lead output in March is expected to increase significantly by about 23 percentage points month - on - month. The supply of secondary lead raw materials has increased, and the operating rates in Anhui, Henan, and Inner Mongolia have rebounded to a 1.5 - year high [1]. - A lead smelter in Henan plans to start maintenance at the end of March or early April for about 1 month, with an estimated impact of about 15,000 tons [1]. - Some secondary lead smelters in Guangxi have stopped purchasing scrap batteries due to environmental inspections [1]. Demand - side Information - Most enterprises have resumed production, but due to sufficient pre - holiday inventory and the off - season of the battery market, the demand for lead ingots is limited [1]. Inventory Information - As of March 24, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 71,900 tons, an increase of more than 100 tons compared with March 17 and a decrease of 2,100 tons compared with March 20 [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingot rose 1.30% to 24,090 yuan/ton, and the main Shanghai zinc futures contract rose 1.81% to 24,200 yuan/ton. The Shanghai zinc basis was - 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton [1]. - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 243,814 lots, an increase of 38.82%, and the open interest was 133,620 lots, an increase of 7.08%. The LME zinc inventory was 154,400 tons, unchanged [1]. Supply - side Information - Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The production limit due to raw material shortage is weakening, and the production and profit of smelters are improving [1]. - A zinc smelter in Henan with a new production capacity of 150,000 tons started ignition and baking on March 21, and the actual zinc ingot output is expected to start in May at the earliest [1]. Demand - side Information - The operating rates of the three downstream sectors have rebounded, and the weak zinc price has stimulated downstream enterprises to purchase on dips, increasing zinc ingot transactions [1]. Inventory Information - As of March 24, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 128,900 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons compared with March 17 and a decrease of 2,100 tons compared with March 20 [1].

| 镍与不锈钢日评20250325：区间整理 | 2025-03-24 | 2025-03-21 | 2025-03-17 | 交易日期（日） | 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 129700.00 | 129050.00 | 133000.00 | 650.00 | 129950.00 | 129190.00 | 133540.00 | 760.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 130120.00 | 129270.00 | 133900.00 | 850.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | | | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 130280.00 | 129500.00 | 133930.00 | 780.00 | 129950.00 | 129190.00 | 133900.00 | ...