Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Coking Coal and Coke [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Bai Jing - Qualification Number: F03097282; Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018999 [2] - Contact: TEL 82292661 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints Coking Coal - This week, the second - round price reduction of coke started, and coking coal prices continued to be weak due to the weakening coking profit. Near the end of the year, some coal mines actively reduced production, and some mines had temporary production cuts. Although the local supply decreased this week, the recent increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance and the decline in demand led to an overall loose supply and downward pressure on prices. The January contract is currently at a large discount to the spot, and considering the high probability of non - standard delivery items, buyers' participation enthusiasm is not high, and short positions are relatively concentrated. It is not advisable to participate in long positions, and short positions can consider taking profits at low prices [6]. Coke - This week, the coke spot market was weak. The second - round price reduction was initiated in areas such as Hebei and Tianjin, putting pressure on prices. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant. Recently, the demand in the coke market has been continuously declining. Under the pressure of blast furnace production cuts, coke enterprises may further seek profits from upstream. The current market sentiment is poor, and prices are under pressure for adjustment. The January contract is currently at a discount to the port wet - basis warehouse receipt price. Due to the continued expectation of price reduction in the market, prices may continue the pattern of volatile adjustment [43]. Summary by Directory Part One: Coking Coal Price - As of December 11, the warehouse receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1068 yuan/ton (- 49), and that of high - quality coking coal in Anze, Shanxi was 1273 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt price of Canadian Lukin was 1255 yuan/ton (- 1). The futures price of the main coking coal contract decreased, with a week - on - week decline of 10.83%, and the JM1 - 5 spread was - 71 (+ 13) yuan/ton [5]. Fundamentals - **Supply**: In December, more coal mines reduced production, and the local supply continued to decrease. Recent snowfall in the main production areas affected the downstream delivery rhythm, and some coal types temporarily stabilized due to limited resources. The operating rate of coking coal (523 enterprises) was 85.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 percentage points, and the daily average clean coal output was 750,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3700 tons. In terms of imported seaborne coal, Australian mines continued to control supplies, while overseas terminal demand remained, and coal prices continued to rise due to tight supply. The forward transaction price of Australian quasi - first - line high - quality coking coal Goonyella rose to about FOB 209.9 US dollars, a week - on - week increase of 3.39 US dollars, equivalent to about 1834 yuan/ton at domestic port pick - up prices, and the inversion range with domestic local prices has expanded to over 160 yuan/ton [5]. - **Demand**: Terminal hot metal production continued to decline, and the rigid demand for coking coal and coke remained under pressure. After two rounds of coke price cuts, there was still an expectation of further cuts, and high - price transactions at mines were still difficult. The clean coal inventory of 523 enterprises monitored by Steel Union was 2.5531 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 83,000 tons [5]. Part Two: Coke Price - As of December 11, the warehouse receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1576 yuan/ton (- 21), the warehouse receipt price of port dry - quenched coke was 1815 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Shanxi was 1850 yuan/ton. The futures price of the main coke contract decreased significantly, with a week - on - week decline of 6.94%, and the J1 - 5 spread was - 153 yuan/ton (- 4) [41]. Fundamentals - **Supply**: The coking operation was at a high level, but in winter, coking was frequently affected by environmental protection. Currently, the production of some coke enterprises in areas such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Henan was restricted, and the supply tightened. On the other hand, a few coke enterprises had resumed production after previous maintenance, and production had recovered. Overall, coke supply continued to decline this period, with a limited decline. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 73.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.68 percentage points. The daily average output of all - sample independent coking plants was 639,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5500 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mill coking plants was 466,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [42]. - **Demand**: Affected by the off - season, demand continued to be weak. Blast furnace maintenance increased, and hot metal production continued to decline this period. The supply of finished products decreased, and steel mills' enthusiasm for raw material procurement was weak. Downstream steel mills continued to passively accumulate inventory. The daily average hot metal output this period was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons [42]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory of 247 steel mills monitored by Steel Union was 635,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,030 tons; the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 87,320 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,880 tons, an increase of 14.2%. The coke inventory at ports was 181,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [42]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead**: The lead price may fluctuate strongly due to tightened raw material supply, stable support at the bottom, and reduced pressure on non - ferrous metals from the Fed's dovish interest rate cut. [1] - **Zinc**: The zinc price may rebound in the short term due to the Fed's dovish interest rate cut, but the weak demand restricts the upside space, and there is a risk of a high - level decline after the positive news is exhausted. [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On December 12, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.59% to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract rose by 0.23% to 17,155 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 4.29% to 34,885 lots, and the open interest decreased by 9.06% to 35,754 lots. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 235,475 tons, while the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 14.79% to 17,711 tons. [1] - **Fundamentals**: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Last week, more smelters had maintenance, especially delivery - brand ones, causing a decline in primary lead production. In the secondary lead sector, some smelters also had maintenance plans. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening, while the automobile battery market is approaching the traditional replacement peak season. [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low levels with a light position. [1] Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On December 12, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.17% to 23,040 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract decreased by 0.35% to 22,995 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 21.27% to 93,062 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.02% to 88,499 lots. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 60,350 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 3.59% to 52,802 tons. [1] - **Fundamentals**: The mine supply is tight, TC is continuously decreasing, and the smelter production cut range is expanding. The export window occasionally opens, and the supply is shrinking. The demand is still weak, with reduced downstream procurement due to cold weather and environmental protection impacts. [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rally and subsequent correction. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market currently maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices under pressure and a resonance decline in futures and spot prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent registration of new warehouse receipts and the actual start - up of silicon enterprises [1]. - For polysilicon, downstream production scheduling has declined, the acceptance of high - priced goods is low, the supply side fluctuates slightly, there is significant inventory accumulation pressure, and prices are under pressure. Be vigilant against the risk of price surges and subsequent declines after positive news materializes [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: On December 12, 2025, the average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) was 9,200 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; the futures main contract closing price was 8,285 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous day; the basis (East China 553 - futures main) was 915 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, the shutdown of silicon enterprises in the southwest production period has basically been implemented, and the start - up is at a low level for the year, while the start - up in the north is relatively stable. It is expected that the industrial silicon output in December will fluctuate slightly around 400,000 tons. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, silicone enterprises have reached a joint production reduction mechanism, which may weaken the demand for industrial silicon, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, with limited willingness of the downstream to stock up at low levels [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt an interval operation strategy [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On December 12, 2025, the price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re - feed material was 52.30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the price of N - type mixed material was 50.50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the futures main contract closing price was 55,765 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some polysilicon plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, it is expected that the output in October will still increase slightly, and the output in November will decrease to around 120,000 tons month - on - month. On the demand side, the prices in the industrial chain are under pressure to decline. Although polysilicon prices remain firm, market transactions are relatively light, with few new transactions, and downstream resistance to high - priced resources is strong [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for now [1]. Other Related Products - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of N - type 210R silicon wafer increased by 4.24% to 1.23 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 183mm silicon wafer increased by 2.61% to 1.18 yuan/piece [1]. - **Battery Cell**: The price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm remained unchanged at 0.27 yuan/watt [1]. - **Module**: The prices of single - crystal PERC modules (single - sided and double - sided for 182mm and 210mm) remained unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged [1]. Market Information - On December 11, the results of the mechanism electricity price bidding in Hunan Province were announced. The photovoltaic mechanism electricity price was 0.375 yuan/kWh, and the wind power mechanism electricity price was 0.33 yuan/kWh. The photovoltaic mechanism electricity volume was 757,985,576 kWh with 6,190 winning projects (only 6 were centralized photovoltaics), and the wind power mechanism electricity volume was 2.518 billion kWh with 20 winning projects. The new electricity volume included in the mechanism electricity price bidding range was 3.376 billion kWh (annual calculation), with 2.518 billion kWh for wind power and 858 million kWh for photovoltaics. The photovoltaic mechanism electricity volume was not fully used, while the wind power mechanism electricity volume was 100% used. The photovoltaic price was basically close to the upper limit but still had a 15.6% reduction compared to the coal - fired benchmark price [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent decline in urea prices is due to cooling sentiment and falling coal prices. It is necessary to focus on whether the cost - end of urea can stabilize. The low valuation of urea reflects the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but there are expectations of supply reduction in mid - to late December, and the export quota and winter reserve demand will relieve the supply - demand pressure and support the price. The trading strategy is to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1638 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or 0.43% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.58%; UR09 closed at 1716 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.29% [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong was 1710 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.59%; Shanxi was 1540 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.65%; Henan remained unchanged at 1690 yuan/ton; Hebei was 1710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.58%; Northeast remained unchanged at 1740 yuan/ton; Jiangsu was 1690 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.60% [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 7 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 65 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The price of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 3180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.63%, and remained unchanged in Henan at 2670 yuan/ton. The price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5233 yuan/ton and 5250 yuan/ton respectively [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1651 yuan/ton, the highest was 1656 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1635 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1638 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1645 yuan/ton, and the position was 127,530 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Go long on far - month contracts at low prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to the expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance sheet expansion, production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines, and the expectations of loose domestic fiscal and monetary policies, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - On December 12, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 92,210, up 360 from the previous day; the trading volume was 138,584 lots, down 7,482; the open interest was 190,380 lots, down 9,993; the inventory was 31,461 tons, up 2,530; the Shanghai copper spread was 455, up 605; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 92,665, up 965 [3]. 3.2 London Copper - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 11,833.5, up 274 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was not available; the spread of the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract was 0, down 11.69; the spread of the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract was 0, down 243.5; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 7.7923, down 0.15 [3]. 3.3 COMEX Copper - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.488, up 0.16 from the previous day; the total inventory weight was 447,298, up 4,251 [3]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply side: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased month - on - month. - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods have decreased compared to last week, while those of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand purchases. - Inventory side: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the LME, and the inventory of COMEX copper have all increased compared to last week [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - The main strategy is to lay out long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 85,000 - 90,000 and the resistance level around 97,000 - 107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,600 - 11,000 and the resistance level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; and the support level around 5.0 - 5.2 and the resistance level around 5.6 - 6.0 for US copper [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - On December 11, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The short - term fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected that there is limited upside space for lithium prices. Suggest to hold short positions cautiously and set stop - losses [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - On December 11, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 95,600 yuan/ton, 96,980 yuan/ton, 97,240 yuan/ton, and 97,240 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,960 yuan/ton, 2,900 yuan/ton, 2,840 yuan/ton, and 2,840 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 744,190 lots (+123,255), and the open interest of the active contract was 634,283 lots (+28,830). The inventory was 14,750 tons (+1,070) [1] Spot Price - On December 11, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 93,500 yuan/ton (+800), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 91,000 yuan/ton (+750). The prices of other lithium - related products also had corresponding changes [1] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, with increased production of spodumene and recycled lithium, and decreased production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes and lithium mica. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of ammonium phosphate decreased, and the production of ternary materials decreased. In December, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate decreased. In November, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; 3C shipments were weak; in December, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries stagnated [1] Inventory - Registered warehouse receipts were 14,750 tons (+1,070). Social inventory decreased, with inventory reduction in smelters and downstream, and inventory accumulation in other sectors [1] Industry News - American company Albemarle announced that the direct lithium extraction (DIE) pilot plant in Chile has completed verification. The lithium recovery rate exceeded 94% during stable operation, and the water reuse rate was as high as 85% during the verification phase. The company funded $30 million for the pilot plant and an additional $216 million for the salt recovery plant in the Atacama Salt Flat [1] - On December 10, the integrated mining, beneficiation, and smelting project of Xiangyuan lithium polymetallic ore of Zijin Mining was put into operation in Daoxian, Hunan. The project has a total investment of about 13 billion yuan, with a registered ore volume of about 1.96 billion tons and 670,000 tons of lithium oxide [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The expected Fed balance - sheet expansion and global debt inflation support precious metal prices. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in December and in 2026 - 2027, and start monthly reserve management purchases of short - term Treasuries, which is a technical balance - sheet expansion exceeding expectations. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries lead to expectations of debt inflation and fiscal deficit expansion. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold - buying also support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] - The supply - demand situation of platinum and palladium is different. Platinum supply is expected to be tight in 2025 - 2026, with supply gaps of 26 and 18 tons respectively, and an average annual supply - demand gap of about 19 tons until 2029. Palladium supply is expected to change from tight to loose, with supply gaps of 8 and 3 tons in 2025 - 2026 and a looser supply - demand situation in 2027 [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On December 12, 2025, the closing price was 957.90 yuan/gram, down 3.14 from the previous week and up 1.50 from the previous day. Trading volume was 242,710, and open interest was 192,178. Inventory was 91,302 (in ten - gram units) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The closing price was 952.35 yuan/gram, down 3.65 from the previous week. Trading volume was 33,596, and open interest was 200,796 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 14,447 yuan/kg, up 70 from the previous day and 808 from the previous week. Trading volume was 894,426, and open interest was 3,823,854 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: Relevant trading and position data are also provided, along with information on spreads and basis [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,309.30 dollars/ounce, up 74.50 from the previous day. Trading volume was 220,543, and open interest was 321,283. Inventory was 36,115,605.50 (in troy ounces) [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 1.78 dollars/ounce, up 5.05 from the previous week. Trading volume was 118,368, and open interest was 118,097. Inventory was 455,817,117.44 (in troy ounces) [1] Important Information - US initial jobless claims increased by 44,000 last week, the largest increase since 2020, and continuing claims dropped to an 8 - month low. The US trade deficit in September fell to a five - year low [1] - Global long - term bond yields soared to a 16 - year high, and the market bets that the global interest - rate cut cycle is about to end [1] Trading Strategies Gold and Silver - Adopt a long - position strategy when prices fall. For London gold, focus on support levels around 3900 - 4100 and resistance levels around 4400 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, focus on support levels around 890 - 920 and resistance levels around 1000 - 1050. For London silver, focus on support levels around 49 - 54 and resistance levels around 63 - 72; for Shanghai silver, focus on support levels around 11500 - 12500 and resistance levels around 15000 - 16000 [1] Platinum - Unilaterally establish long positions when prices fall, and cautiously hold long positions in the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy. For London platinum, focus on support levels around 1300 - 1500 and resistance levels around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, focus on support levels around 335 - 385 and resistance levels around 465 - 516 [1] Palladium - Unilaterally establish long positions when prices fall. For London palladium, focus on support levels around 1190 - 1390 and resistance levels around 1600 - 1800; for domestic palladium, focus on support levels around 305 - 357 and resistance levels around 415 - 465 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: On December 11, the main nickel futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure. After the price correction, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1][2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 11, the main stainless - steel futures contract fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium widened. Although the cost side is stabilizing, the fundamentals are loose. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The recommended trading strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three) decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the near - month contract closed at 115,400 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 120,019 lots, a decrease of 13,204 lots. The open interest of the active contract was 106,302 lots, an increase of 3,719 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai nickel futures decreased by 296 tons to 33,939 tons. The LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 243,702 tons to 244,494 tons, and the total LME inventory decreased by 240 tons to 253,092 tons [2]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price was 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 122,825 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore to decline in the second half of December. The supply of nickel ore is sluggish, and the price is flat. In December, domestic nickel - iron production decreased, and Indonesian production also declined. On the demand side, ternary material production decreased, stainless - steel plant production decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three) decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the near - month contract closed at 12,260 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 69,415 lots, a decrease of 10,516 lots. The open interest was 64,258 lots, a decrease of 7,223 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai stainless - steel futures inventory decreased by 120 tons to 61,378 tons. The 300 - series social inventory last week was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) was 13,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 316L/2B coil (Wuxi) was 23,775 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In December, stainless - steel production decreased, especially the 300 - series. Terminal demand was weak. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was flat [2].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expected Fed rate cuts and global debt inflation are likely to support precious metal prices in the medium to long term. However, high platinum and palladium prices may suppress downstream demand, leading to price adjustments [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Data Summary - **Gold**: On December 10, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 951.13 yuan/gram, up 4.44 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 28,814, a decrease of 7,010 from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX gold futures was 4258.30 dollars/ounce, up 21.70 dollars from the previous week; the London gold spot price was 4200.15 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Shanghai silver futures was 14,377 yuan/kilogram, up 781 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 822,474, an increase of 47,084 from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX silver futures was 62.20 dollars/ounce, up 3.05 dollars from the previous day; the London silver spot price was 61.04 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: The price of INE crude oil was 443.70 yuan/barrel, down 2.40 yuan from the previous day; the price of ICE Brent crude oil was 62.52 dollars/barrel, up 0.40 dollars from the previous day. The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.30%, unchanged from the previous day; the U.S. 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.1300%, down 0.05 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Important News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it. It still expects one rate cut next year and will buy 40 billion dollars of short - term bonds. Powell said the bond - buying scale may remain at a relatively high level in the next few months [1]. - Trump is conducting a "final interview" for the Fed chair position. Hassett is not yet a certainty, and Bessent still has a chance to succeed. Hassett said Trump will make a final decision on the Fed chair candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks and reiterated that the Fed still has significant room for rate cuts [1]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Side Logic and Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and is expected to cut rates once in 2026 and 2027, but the market expects two rate cuts in 2026. The Fed will start monthly reserve management purchases of short - term bonds worth 40 billion dollars on December 12, which may gradually slow down to 20 - 25 billion dollars per month later. Germany, Japan, and the UK have launched fiscal stimulus policies, leading to expectations of global debt inflation and fiscal deficit expansion. The 1 - month lease rate of London silver exceeds 6.4%, indicating a tight supply. Global central banks continue to buy gold, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the U.S. - Venezuela remain unresolved [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on buying on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3900 - 4100 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4400 - 4600 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 1000 - 1050 yuan/gram. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 63 - 72 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 11,500 - 12,500 yuan/kilogram and the resistance level around 15,000 - 16,000 yuan/kilogram [1]. 3.3.2 Platinum - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: On the supply side, high deep - mine mining costs, unstable power supply, and production equipment maintenance may reduce global platinum production to 169 tons in 2025, and recycled platinum production may grow slowly to 50 tons. In 2026, global platinum production may reach 174 tons, and recycled platinum production may be 53 tons, with the total supply increasing to 227 tons. On the demand side, stricter emission standards increase the demand for platinum in traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles, and there is optimistic demand in industrial fields such as hydrogen production. However, there are concerns about a decline in jewelry and investment demand. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) predicts supply shortages of 26 tons in 2025 and 18 tons in 2026, with an average annual shortage of about 19 tons until at least 2029. High platinum prices may suppress downstream demand [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profits on previous long positions on price rallies and hold "long platinum, short palladium" positions cautiously. For London platinum, pay attention to the support level around 1300 - 1500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1800 - 2000 dollars/ounce; for domestic platinum, focus on the support level around 335 - 385 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 465 - 516 yuan/gram [1]. 3.3.3 Palladium - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: On the supply side, deep - mine mining, power shortages, labor disputes, and lower ore grades affect palladium production, but the recycling supply is expected to increase from 2026 - 2027 due to the vehicle scrapping cycle in China and globally. In 2025, the production of mined and recycled palladium may be 199 tons and 92 tons respectively, with a total supply of 291 tons. In 2026, the production of mined and recycled palladium may be 194 tons and 98 tons respectively, with a total supply of 292 tons. On the demand side, stricter emission standards and the development of new - energy vehicles reduce the demand for palladium in the automotive sector, while the demand in industrial and medical fields is relatively inelastic. The World Platinum Investment Association (WIIC) predicts supply shortages of 8 tons in 2025 and 3 tons in 2026, with the supply - demand situation expected to ease in 2027 [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profits on previous long positions on price rallies. For London palladium, pay attention to the support level around 1190 - 1390 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1600 - 1800 dollars/ounce; for domestic palladium, focus on the support level around 305 - 357 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 415 - 465 yuan/gram [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate show strong supply and weak demand, and the lithium price is expected to fluctuate weakly under position limits. It is recommended to hold short positions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Price**: On December 10, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 93,640 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,060 yuan compared to December 9; the trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 620,935 hands, an increase of 108,720 hands; the open interest was 605,453 hands, an increase of 30,032 hands [1] - **Spread**: The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was - 440 yuan, the spread between the first - consecutive and the second - consecutive contract was - 80 yuan, and the spread between the second - consecutive and the third - consecutive contract was - 60 yuan [1] - **Inventory**: The registered inventory was 1,368 tons, an increase of 760 tons [1] 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,178 US dollars/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,640 yuan/ton [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 92,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 10.2 US dollars/kg [1] - **Other Products**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95% domestic) was 171,000 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 106,050 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Lithium Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, with a decrease in the output of salt - lake lithium carbonate and an increase in the output of lithium carbonate from other raw materials [1] - **Demand**: Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased; in December, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate decreased; last week, the output of power batteries increased; in November, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; the 3C shipments weakened; the production scheduling growth of energy - storage batteries stagnated in December [1] 3.4 Lithium Inventory - The SMM lithium carbonate inventory: the inventory of smelters was 20,767 tons, the inventory of downstream was 41,984 tons, and the inventory of others was 49,140 tons. The total inventory decreased by 2,366 tons compared to the previous week [1] 3.5 Industry News - Standard Lithium and Equinor's joint - venture Smackover Lithium announced that its Arkansas Smackover project has attracted over $1.1 billion in financing intentions, covering 76% of the $1.45 billion construction cost of Phase I. The project uses uncommercialized direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology but faces challenges [1]