| 2025-12-04 | 2025-11-28 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-05 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 117450.00 | 117340.00 | 116730.00 | 110.00 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 117760.00 | 117790.00 | 117080.00 | 30.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 10.00 | 收盘价 | 117950.00 | 117940.00 | 117250.00 | | | | | | | -20.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 118200.00 | 118220.00 | 117520.00 | 117790.00 | 117760.00 | 117080.00 | 30.00 | 收盘价 | | | | | | | | n | 上海期镍 | 成交量( ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - On December 5, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated downward. The spot market trading recovered, and the basis premium widened. Considering the cost, demand, supply, and inventory, the current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent. The weekly output of lithium carbonate is at a high level. The downstream market remains cautious, the spot market trading is light, and the demand growth has stagnated. The exchange is taking measures to cool the market. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to hold short positions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - On December 5, the closing price of the near - month contract was 90,680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous - first contract was 90,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous - second contract was 91,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,460 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous - third contract was 91,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,460 yuan from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 461,507 lots, a decrease of 201,951 lots; the open interest was 560,676 lots, an increase of 47 lots [1] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 93,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 90,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan [1] - The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, coarse - grained) was 82,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, micronized) was 86,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan [1] Cost End - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was $1,154/ton, a decrease of $8; the prices of various types of lithium mica were flat [1] Supply End - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased. The output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased, while the output from other sources increased [1] Demand End - Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased. In December, the scheduled production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide decreased, and the output of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October; the 3C product shipments weakened; the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries stagnated in December [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 10,922 tons, an increase of 500 tons. The social inventory decreased, with smelters and other sectors reducing inventory, while the downstream inventory was tight [1] Industry News - Rio Tinto Group aims to reduce unit costs by 4% from 2024 - 2030. The medium - term capital expenditure guidance target (after 2028) will be below $10 billion. Its lithium project under construction will start production before 2028, with an annual capacity of about 200,000 tons [1] - The ignition and resumption ceremony of Wanzai Times New Energy Materials Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of CATL, originally planned for December 5, was not held, and the lithium mine of Times Mining has not resumed work [1]

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 2025/12/8 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 17,175.00 0.44% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,290.00 0.26% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -115.00 30.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 - 25.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -49.15 -9.79 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -94.60 -3.10 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -10.00 15.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -15.00 -25.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -25.00 -20.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 44,508.00 19.36% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 44,944.00 -3.52% 成交持仓比 / 0.99 23.71% LME库存 吨 0.00% 243,550.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 16,078.00 -2.87% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 2,009.00 -0.35% 沪伦铅价比值 / 8.61 0.61% SMM1#锌锭平 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251208：上方承压 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/12/8 指标 | | | | | 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | | | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,805.00 -1.18% | | | | | 元/吨 545.00 105.00 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 51.00 0.00% | | | | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 55,510.00 -2.47% -4,510.00 1,405.00 | | | | | 基差 元/吨 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | | | 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 9,300.00 0.00% | | | | | 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% 不通氧553#（昆明）平 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term, attention should be paid to the callback risk as the recent decline in coal prices brings some callback pressure to the coal chemical industry. However, in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the supply - demand surplus pressure, but from a driving perspective, the urea price is supported at a low level, and the bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On December 5, compared with December 4, UR01 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.89%), UR05 by 9 yuan/ton (-0.52%), and UR09 by 11 yuan/ton (-0.62%). [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Among them, the prices in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.58% and 0.59% respectively), the price in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.64%), and the prices in Henan, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged. [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 30 yuan/ton (0.97%), and in Henan by 10 yuan/ton (0.38%). The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 6 yuan/ton. [1] 3.3 Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1696 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1696 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1672 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1682 yuan/ton, and the position was 200,353 lots. [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of finished products are both in a downward phase during the off - season. The investment data remains weak, and domestic demand is poor. However, exports maintain strong resilience with the advantage of trading volume for price. The supply is in a production - reduction stage, with a rapid contraction in rebar production and a partial repair of supply - demand contradictions. The hot - rolled coil production is still relatively high, with slow inventory depletion and a weaker fundamental situation compared to rebar. During the recent production - reduction period, the profit per ton of steel may be restored. Operators are advised to be cautious [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Rebar Futures**: On December 5, 2025, RB2605 closed at 3157 (down 18 from the previous day), RB2610 at 3192 (down 17), and RB2601 at 3137 (down 11). The spreads such as RB10 - RB01, RB05 - RB10 also changed. The 05, 10, and 01 contract rebar disk profits were 16, 62, and 36 respectively, showing different changes compared to the previous day [2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: On December 5, 2025, HC2605 closed at 3320 (down 15 from the previous day), HC2610 at 3329 (down 15), and HC2601 at 3312 (down 11). The spreads such as HC10 - HC01, HC05 - HC10 changed. The 05, 10, and 01 contract hot - rolled coil disk profits were - 71, - 51, and - 39 respectively, with corresponding changes [2] - **Night - Session Futures**: RB2601 closed at 3120, RB2605 at 3132, HC2601 at 3301, and HC2605 at 3304. The rebar 1 - 5 spread was - 12 yuan, the hot - rolled coil 1 - 5 spread was - 3 yuan. The January contract coil - rebar spread was 181 yuan, and the May contract coil - rebar spread was 172 yuan [2] Spot Market - **Rebar Spot**: On December 5, 2025, the prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai Zhongtian, Nanjing Xicheng, Shandong Shiheng, and Tangshan Tanggang changed. The cheapest delivery product was 3240 yuan, and the 05, 10, and 01 contract basis had corresponding values [2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of hot - rolled coils in regions like Tianjin Hegang, Lecong Rigang, and Shanghai Rigang changed. The cheapest delivery product was 3300 yuan, and the 05, 10, and 01 contract basis also had corresponding values [2] - **Other Spot Products**: The prices of products such as Tangshan billet, East China scrap steel, Lecong Magang cold - rolled steel, and Shanghai Magang cold - rolled steel remained stable or changed slightly. There were also changes in spot regional price differences and spot profits [2] Important Information - **Production Line Maintenance**: Last week, 25 production lines in steel mills in 15 provinces were under maintenance (14 more than the previous week), and 2 production lines were restarted (4 fewer than the previous week). The production affected by maintenance was 3.78 tons (5.25 tons more than the previous week), and it is expected to be 44.3 tons this week [2] - **Pollution Response**: Many places have launched emergency responses to heavy pollution weather. Luoyang launched an orange - level warning on December 7 at 17:00, Changsha launched a first - level response at 20:00 on December 7, and Cangzhou, Handan, Xingtai, and Xi'an launched first - level emergency responses at 12:00 on December 8 [2] - **Rebar Market Data**: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the national average rebar price was 3326 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The weekly rebar production was 189.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.14%, the inventory was 503.81 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.21%, and the consumption was 216.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81% [2] - **Commodity Transactions**: On December 5, the iron ore transactions at major national ports were 86.40 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%, and the construction steel transactions of 237 major trading companies were 8.82 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.1% [2] - **Electric Arc Furnace Data**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 53.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.43 percentage points. The average start - up rate was 67.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2] Long - Short Logic - The prices of some common carbon billets in Tangshan, Hebei decreased by 20 yuan to 2970 yuan/ton over the weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan. The prices of construction steel in major domestic markets were stable with a slight decline, and trading was light [2] Trading Strategy - No specific trading strategy was provided in the report

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, attention should be paid to the callback pressure of methanol. The methanol 01 contract has limited upward space, and the price has fallen below the 2100 mark. The reasons include large short - term inventory pressure, general MTO profit and insufficient restocking power of downstream enterprises, and the decline in coal prices weakening cost support. The recommended trading strategy is to hold the short - put option of 01 until maturity [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, MA01 closed at 2077 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-1.70%); MA05 closed at 2171 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-1.72%); MA09 closed at 2179 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-1.45%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the price in Taicang was 2082.50 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.19%); in Shandong, it was 2225 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Guangdong, it was 2072.50 yuan/ton, down 17.50 yuan/ton (-0.84%); prices in Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1] - **Price Difference**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was 5.50 yuan/ton on December 5, 2025, an increase of 11 yuan/ton compared with December 4 [1] 2. Coal and Natural Gas Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the price of Ordos Q5500 was 580 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.43%); the price of Datong Q5500 was 635 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-2.31%); the price of Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.16 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the profit of coal - to - methanol was 234.40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-7.86%); the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at -1160 yuan/ton [1] - **MTO Profit**: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the profit of Northwest MTO was -267 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-10.33%); the profit of East China MTO was -794.57 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton (5.13%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the profit of acetic acid was 671.95 yuan/ton, up 56.37 yuan/ton (9.16%); the profit of MTBE was 251.64 yuan/ton, up 7.52 yuan/ton (3.08%); the profit of formaldehyde was -298.80 yuan/ton, up 9.60 yuan/ton (3.11%); the profit of mono - formaldehyde was 346 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (8.81%) [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Price**: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak shock on December 5, 2025, opening at 2113 yuan/ton and closing at 2077 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1.0041 million lots, and the open interest was 0.8721 million lots, with shrinking volume and reduced positions [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - month was 236 - 250 US dollars/ton, with the offer of non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - month last week increasing by 2 - 2.5% and the buyer's bid increasing by 0.8 - 1%, and there was no transaction news for the time being; the reference negotiation price of methanol shipments from other Middle - East regions arriving in the far - month was -1 - 0%, and a small number of shipments from a certain Middle - East country arriving in the far - month had a transaction price decrease of 1%, with insufficient active offers [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term attention should be paid to the callback risk, as the recent decline in coal prices has brought some callback pressure to the coal - chemical industry. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the strategy should focus on buying on dips. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of over - supply and demand, but the urea price is supported at low levels, and its price bottom may gradually become clear [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On December 5th compared to December 4th, UR01 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.89%) to 1673 yuan/ton, UR05 decreased by 9 yuan/ton (-0.52%) to 1736 yuan/ton, and UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.62%) to 1752 yuan/ton [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Shandong, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.58%) to 1720 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.64%) to 1560 yuan/ton; in Henan and Hebei, there was no change; in Northeast China, there was no change; in Jiangsu, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.59%) to 1710 yuan/ton [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong increased by 30 yuan/ton (0.97%) to 3130 yuan/ton, and in Henan, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.38%) to 2650 yuan/ton. The melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 19 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1696 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1696 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1672 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1682 yuan/ton, and the position was 200353 lots [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, focus on buying on dips [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of finished steel products are both in a downward phase in the off - season. The investment - end data remains weak and domestic demand is poor. However, exports maintain strong resilience with the advantage of trading at a lower price for higher volume. Currently in the production - reduction stage, the output of rebar has contracted rapidly, and the supply - demand contradiction has been repaired. The output of hot - rolled coils is still relatively high, inventory reduction is difficult, and its fundamentals are weaker than rebar. During the recent production - reduction period, the profit per ton of steel may be repaired. It is recommended to operate with caution [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Rebar Futures**: On December 5, 2025, RB2605 closed at 3157, down 18 from the previous day; RB2610 closed at 3192, down 17; RB2601 closed at 3137, down 11. The 05 - 10 spread of rebar was - 35, down 1. The 10 - 01 spread of rebar was - 6. The 05 - contract rebar disk profit was 16, up 17; the 10 - contract rebar disk profit was 62, up 16; the 01 - contract rebar disk profit was 36, up 34 [2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: On December 5, 2025, HC2605 closed at 3320, down 15 from the previous day; HC2610 closed at 3329, down 15; HC2601 closed at 3312, down 11. The 05 - 10 spread of hot - rolled coil was - 9, up 3. The 10 - 01 spread of hot - rolled coil was 17, down 4. The HC05 - RB05 spread was 163, up 6; the HC10 - RB10 spread was 137, up 2; the HC01 - RB01 spread was 175, unchanged. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was - 71, up 23; the 10 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was - 51, up 18; the 01 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was - 39, up 34 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Rebar Spot**: On December 5, 2025, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3260 yuan, down 10 from the previous day; Nanjing Xicheng rebar was 3420 yuan, unchanged; Shandong Shiheng rebar was 3320 yuan, down 10; Tangshan Tanggang rebar was 3150 yuan, unchanged. The cheapest delivery product was equivalent to 3240 yuan, with 05 - contract basis of 83, 10 - contract basis of 48, and 01 - contract basis of 103 [2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: On December 5, 2025, the price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan, unchanged; Lecong Rigang hot - rolled coil was 3320 yuan, down 10; Shanghai Rigang hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan, down 10. The cheapest delivery product was 3300 yuan, with 05 - contract basis of - 20, 10 - contract basis of - 29, and 01 - contract basis of - 12 [2] 3.3 Spot Price Difference and Profit - **Rebar Price Difference and Profit**: The price difference between Shanghai rebar and Beijing rebar was 90, unchanged; between Shanghai rebar and Jinan rebar was - 50, up 10; between Shanghai rebar and Guangzhou rebar was - 250, down 10. The profit of adjusting billet to roll steel was 40, unchanged. The profit of East China rebar was 252, up 1. The profit of East China electric - arc furnace in flat period was - 100, down 170; in valley period was 64, down 170 [2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Price Difference and Profit**: The price difference between Shanghai hot - rolled coil and Tianjin hot - rolled coil was 60, down 10; between Shanghai hot - rolled coil and Lecong hot - rolled coil was - 20, unchanged; between Shanghai hot - rolled coil and Shanghai rebar was 0, down 10. The profit of Tianjin hot - rolled coil was - 108, up 3. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil was 173, up 1 [2] 3.4 Night Session Review - Futures: RB2601 closed at 3120, RB2605 closed at 3132, HC2601 closed at 3301, HC2605 closed at 3304. The 1 - 5 spread of rebar was - 12 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil was - 3 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in January contract was 181 yuan, and in May contract was 172 yuan. Spot: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3260 (- 10) yuan; the price of Shanghai Bengang hot - rolled coil was 3300 (- 10) yuan [2] 3.5 Important Information - Last week, steel mills in 15 provinces had production line maintenance and resumption. There were 25 maintenance production lines, a month - on - month increase of 14, and 2 resumption production lines, a month - on - month decrease of 4. The production affected by production line maintenance was 3.78 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.25 tons. It is expected that the production affected by production line maintenance this week will be 44.3 tons [2] - Many places launched emergency responses for heavy pollution weather. Luoyang launched an orange early - warning response for heavy pollution weather at 17:00 on December 7; Changsha launched a first - level response measure for heavy pollution weather at 20:00 on December 7. Cangzhou, Handan, Xingtai, and Xi'an launched a first - level emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 12:00 on December 8 [2] - From December 1 - 5, 2025, the national average price of rebar was 3326 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. On the supply side, the weekly output of rebar was 189.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.14%, and the inventory was 503.81 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.21%. On the demand side, the consumption was 216.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81% [2] - On December 5, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 86.40 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%; the transaction volume of construction steel products of 237 mainstream traders was 8.82 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.1% [2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills in the country was 53.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.43 percentage points; the average operating rate was 67.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2] 3.6 Long - Short Logic - Over the weekend, the ex - factory price of some common carbon billets in Tangshan, Hebei decreased by 20 yuan to 2970 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan. The prices of construction steel in major domestic markets were stable with slight declines, and trading was light. The supply and demand of finished steel products are in a downward phase in the off - season, investment - end data is weak, and domestic demand is poor. Exports maintain strong resilience with the price - for - volume advantage. Currently in the production - reduction stage, rebar output has contracted rapidly and supply - demand contradiction has been repaired. Hot - rolled coil output is still relatively high, inventory reduction is difficult, and fundamentals are weaker than rebar. During the production - reduction period, the profit per ton of steel may be repaired [2] 3.7 Trading Strategy - Not clearly stated in the report

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Global debt inflation expectations support precious metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is still over 80%, and multiple countries' governments have introduced fiscal easing policies, leading to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth. Central banks of many countries are continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks are likely to support precious metal prices in the long - and medium - term [1] - The global platinum supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, but high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand and cause price adjustments [1] - The global lithium supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 may change from tight to loose, and multiple factors may cause lithium price adjustments [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 961.04 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.24 compared to the previous day and 7.62 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 237,697.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 91,299.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,237.90 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.20 compared to the previous day and 31.60 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 190,889.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 36,310,675.24 (in troy ounces). London gold spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,200.60 dollars/ounce [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 13,687.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 263.00 compared to the previous day and 409.00 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 2,703,384.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 687,956.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 53.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.27 compared to the previous day and 5.04 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 5,227.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 457,220,650.80 (in troy ounces). London silver spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 57.57 dollars/ounce [1] Important Information - China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces (about 2,305.39 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of increase [1] - The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, increased by 2.8% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. US consumer confidence ended a four - month decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level at the beginning of the year [1] Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: Buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,900 - 4,100 and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 and the resistance level around 970 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 and the resistance level around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 12,500 - 15,000 and the resistance level around 14,000 - 15,000 [1] - **Platinum**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading, and cautiously hold "long platinum, short palladium" long positions. For London platinum price, focus on the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000; for domestic platinum price, focus on the support level around 335 - 385 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1] - **Lithium**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading. For London lithium price, focus on the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800; for domestic lithium price, focus on the support level around 305 - 357 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1]