Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The report believes that urea may fluctuate and build a bottom in the short term. Urea's low valuation reflects the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In mid - to late December, there is an expectation of reduced supply, and the export quota will relieve domestic supply - demand pressure, while winter reserve demand will support the price. Recently, the price decline is affected by sentiment cooling and coal price drops, but the price is supported at a low level [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On December 9, UR01 closed at 1643 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1711 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.06%; UR09 closed at 1721 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.17%. Among domestic spot prices, Shandong remained unchanged at 1690 yuan/ton, Shanxi dropped 30 yuan to 1530 yuan/ton (-1.92%), Henan dropped 10 yuan to 1680 yuan/ton (-0.59%), etc. [1] Spreads and Cost - related Information - The spread between Shandong spot and UR01 was -21 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was -68 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The prices of upstream raw materials such as Henan and Shanxi anthracite remained unchanged, while the prices of downstream products like compound fertilizer and melamine mostly increased. For example, Shandong compound fertilizer (45%S) rose 30 yuan to 3160 yuan/ton (0.96%) [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1646 yuan/ton, the highest was 1651 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1635 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1643 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1644 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Report's Core View - The silicon market currently maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices under pressure and both spot and futures prices falling in tandem. Attention should be paid to the subsequent registration of new warehouse receipts and the actual start - up of silicon enterprises. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to conduct interval operations. For polysilicon, downstream production scheduling has declined, acceptance of high - priced goods is low, and there is significant inventory accumulation pressure. It is advisable to hold previous long positions cautiously and be vigilant against the risk of price pull - backs after positive news is realized. It is recommended to temporarily observe [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon grade 553 (East China) without oxygen decreased by 1.08% to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of grade 421 (East China) decreased by 0.52% to 9,650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped by 3.86% to 8,340 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: In the southwest, the suspension of production in silicon enterprises has basically been implemented, and the start - up rate is at a low level for the year. In the north, the start - up is relatively stable. It is expected that the industrial silicon output in December will fluctuate slightly around 400,000 tons [1]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, and silicone enterprises have reached a joint production - reduction mechanism, which may weaken the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Conduct interval operations [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 1.95% to 55,615 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: Silicon material enterprises continue to reduce production, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, it is expected that the output in October will still increase slightly, and the output in November is expected to drop to around 120,000 tons month - on - month [1]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The prices in the industrial chain are under pressure and are being adjusted downwards. Although polysilicon prices remain firm, market transactions are light, there are few new transactions, and downstream resistance to high - priced resources is strong [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Temporarily observe. Hold previous long positions cautiously and be vigilant against the risk of price pull - backs after positive news is realized [1]. Industry News - As of September 2025, US solar developers have added 21.2GW of installed capacity, exceeding the 20GW added in the same period in 2024. Solar energy accounts for 11.78% of the total installed power generation capacity in the US [1]. - On December 9, 2025, the long - awaited polysilicon production capacity integration and acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was officially established, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [1].

| 铅锌日评20251210：震荡整理 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/10 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 元/吨 | 17,100.00 | -0.58% | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 17,170.00 | -0.98% | | | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | -70.00 | 70.00 | | | 升贴水-上海 | 元/吨 | 25.00 | 5.00 | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 美元/吨 | -51.57 | -2.42 | | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 价差 | 美元/吨 | -99.00 | -4.40 | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | -55.00 | - | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 铅 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 5.00 - | - 15.00 | | | 35,748.00 | | | -6.08% | | | 期货活跃合约成交量 | 手 | | | | | 成交持仓 期货活跃合约持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut remains high, with a probability of over 80%. However, concerns about the rebound of consumer - end inflation may make Fed Chairman Powell's stance more cautious. Fiscal easing policies in Germany, the US, Japan, and the UK have led to expectations of global debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth. The 1 - month lease rate of London silver exceeding 6.5% has created an expectation of tight supply. Central banks around the world continue to buy gold, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the US - Venezuela are persistent. These factors are likely to support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data 3.1.1 Shanghai Gold - Closing prices on different dates were 953.43, 946.69, 949.54 yuan/gram, with changes of - 2.85 and - 6.74 compared to previous values. Trading volumes were 35824.00, 43378.00, etc., with corresponding changes. Open interest also showed fluctuations [1]. 3.1.2 Shanghai Silver - Closing prices were - 53.00, 13596.00, 13649.00 yuan/kg, with changes. Trading volumes and open interest also had corresponding changes [1]. 3.1.3 COMEX Gold Futures - Closing prices were 16.70, 4236.60, 4219.90, with changes of - 28.40. Trading volumes, open interest, and inventory (in troy ounces) also had specific values and changes [1]. 3.1.4 International Gold and Related Indices - London gold spot prices were 4188.25, 4198.00, 4238.85 dollars/ounce, with changes. SPDR and iShare gold ETF holdings also had corresponding values and changes [1]. 3.1.5 Gold - to - Silver Price Ratio - Ratios such as Shanghai gold/Shanghai silver, New York gold/New York silver, and London gold/London silver had different values and changes [1]. 3.2 Important Information - Trump suggested that interest rate cuts are a test for the new Fed chairman, considering two candidates, and may adjust tariffs to lower prices of some goods. Hassett believed that the Fed has "ample room" to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points [1]. - The US "small non - farm" ADP data improved, with private enterprises adding an average of 4750 jobs per week, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses. The Fed's un - emphasized employment indicator, the October JOLTS job openings, rose to a five - month high, but recruitment decreased and lay - offs reached a two - year high [1]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Side Logic and Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: Mixed employment data in the US, some Fed officials supporting a December rate cut, and Trump's hint about a new Fed chairman candidate have increased the probability of a December rate cut. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries have led to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficits. The high lease rate of London silver has created a tight supply expectation, and geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases support precious metal prices [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on buying on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to support levels around 3900 - 4100 and resistance levels around 4300 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, support levels around 890 - 920 and resistance levels around 970 - 1000. For London silver, support levels around 49 - 54 and resistance levels around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, support levels around 11500 - 12500 and resistance levels around 14000 - 15000 [1]. 3.3.2 Platinum - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: In 2025 - 2026, global platinum supply is expected to be tight, with production affected by factors such as high mining costs and slow growth in recycled platinum. Demand from traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles is expected to increase due to stricter emission standards, and there is optimistic demand in industrial fields. The Fed's December rate cut expectation and tight supply - demand situation may push platinum prices higher [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on buying on price dips. For London platinum, pay attention to support levels around 1300 - 1500 and resistance levels around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, support levels around 335 - 385 and resistance levels around 465 - 516 [1]. 3.3.3 Palladium - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: In 2025 - 2026, there will be a supply gap in palladium, but the supply - demand situation is expected to ease in 2027. Supply is affected by mining difficulties, while demand from the automotive sector is expected to decline due to emission standards and the development of new - energy vehicles. The Fed's December rate cut expectation and the changing supply - demand situation may make palladium prices rise cautiously [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on buying on price dips. For London palladium, pay attention to support levels around 1190 - 1390 and resistance levels around 1600 - 1800; for domestic palladium, support levels around 305 - 357 and resistance levels around 415 - 465 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On December 9, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures declined significantly, with trading volume at 512,215 lots (-87,152) and open interest at 575,421 lots (-17,708). The spot market trading was light, and the basis discount narrowed [1]. - On the cost side, the price of lithium pegmatite concentrate remained flat, and the price of lithium mica remained flat. On the supply side, last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased, and the output of lithium carbonate from other raw materials increased. In terms of downstream demand, last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the output of ternary materials decreased. In December, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the production schedule of lithium carbonate decreased. Last week, the output of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, in November, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; the 3C shipments weakened; the production growth of energy - storage batteries in December stagnated. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 12,920 tons (-200), and social inventory decreased, with smelters and others destocking and downstream stocking [1]. - In summary, the news of lithium mine resumption is repeated. The weekly output of lithium carbonate is at a high level, the downstream wait - and - see sentiment remains strong, the spot market trading is light, demand growth stagnates, and the short - term fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand. Under position limits, it is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to hold short positions [1]. Summary by Related Catalog Futures Market - The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with previous periods, with the near - month contract closing at 92,580 yuan/ton (-220), the consecutive - one contract at 93,060 yuan/ton (-2,100), the consecutive - two contract at 93,340 yuan/ton (-2,100), and the consecutive - three contract at 95,140 yuan/ton (-2,040) [1]. - The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 512,215 lots (-87,152), and the open interest of the active contract was 575,421 lots (-17,708) [1]. Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the average price of industrial - grade 99.2% lithium carbonate was 90,350 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - The prices of various lithium ores such as lithium pegmatite concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone were mostly flat, with only slight fluctuations in some grades [1]. - The average price of 56.5% battery - grade CIF China, Japan, and South Korea lithium hydroxide was 10.2 US dollars/kg (unchanged), and the prices of domestic battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder lithium hydroxide increased slightly [1]. - The prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and other products also showed different degrees of changes, with some prices increasing and some remaining flat [1]. Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 8,992 tons (-200). SMM lithium carbonate inventory: smelters and others had a total inventory of 113,602 tons (-2,366), and downstream inventory increased [1]. Industry News and Outlook - In November, Chile's copper exports fell to $4.28 billion, and lithium export value was $167.41 million [1]. - Due to repeated news of lithium mine resumption, high weekly output, strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment, light spot market trading, and stagnant demand growth, it is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - Title: "Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Report 20251210: Range-bound after Recovery" [1] 2. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. 3. Core Views - **Nickel**: As of December 9, 2025, the nickel market has a weak fundamental situation with inventory pressure. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are fluctuating. After the price recovered from a low level, nickel prices are expected to trade in a range. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 9, 2025, the stainless - steel market has a loose fundamental situation. Although the cost side has stabilized, stainless - steel prices are expected to trade in a low - level range. The recommended trading strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities [2]. 4. Market Data Summary Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: On December 9, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the futures near - month contract closed at 116,900 yuan/ton, down 830 yuan/ton [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 102,410 lots, a decrease of 22,103 lots, and the open interest was 107,986 lots, a decrease of 3,599 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 34,500 tons, and the LME nickel inventory decreased, with registered and注销仓单 changes [2]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price was 119,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The prices of other nickel products also showed different trends [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: On December 9, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures contracts showed different changes. The futures near - month contract closed at 12,265 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 69,080 lots, a decrease of 32,560 lots, and the open interest was 78,164 lots, a decrease of 7,521 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory was 61,556 tons, and the 300 - series stainless - steel social inventory decreased to 620,400 tons [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) was 13,200 yuan/ton, and the prices of other stainless - steel products also had some changes [2]. 5. Industry News - As of December 8, 2025, the Indonesian Forestry Task Force (Satgas PKH2) has imposed administrative fines of 38.9 trillion Indonesian rupiah on 71 palm oil and mining companies for illegal occupation of forest land. Mining companies were fined 29.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah (about $1.75 billion). Some penalized mining companies may be nickel - related, but the list is not yet released [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [3] 2. Core View - High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, leading to inventory accumulation expectations and potential adjustments in Shanghai copper prices. The report suggests that investors take profits on previous long positions at high prices, wait for price corrections to establish new long positions, and pay attention to support and resistance levels for different copper markets [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - **Closing Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures mixed contract on December 9, 2025, was 91,090, down 1,880 from the previous day [3] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume on December 9, 2025, was 190,409 lots, a decrease of 4,520 lots from the previous day [3] - **Open Interest**: The open interest on December 9, 2025, was 210,572 lots, a decrease of 19,473 lots from the previous day [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory on December 9, 2025, was 29,531 tons, a decrease of 425 tons from the previous day [3] - **Basis and Premium**: Various basis and premium indicators showed different changes, such as the Shanghai copper basis (SMM 1 electrolytic copper - average price) increasing by 1,795 [3] 3.2 London Copper Futures - **Closing Price**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures on December 9, 2025, was 11,470, down 205 from the previous day [3] - **Contract Spreads**: The 0 - 3 month and 3 - 15 month contract spreads of LME copper futures showed different degrees of decline [3] 3.3 COMEX Copper Futures - **Closing Price**: The closing price of the COMEX copper futures active contract on December 9, 2025, was 5.3295, down 0.12 from the previous day [3] - **Total Inventory**: The total inventory on December 9, 2025, was 443,047, an increase of 6,194 from the previous day [3] 3.4 Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disturbances at multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tightening supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased month - on - month [3] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods has decreased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rates of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand procurement [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper, and the inventory of COMEX copper have all increased compared to last week [3] 3.5 Trading Strategy - Take profits on previous long positions at high prices, wait for price corrections to establish new long positions, and pay attention to support and resistance levels: 85,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper, 10,600 - 11,000 for London copper, and 5.0 - 5.2 for US copper; resistance levels are 97,000 - 107,000 for Shanghai copper, 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper, and 5.6 - 6.0 for US copper [3]

[尿ta素ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 12 月 9 日 短期或震荡筑底 风险提示：出口政策收紧，煤价大幅下跌。 分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《尿素周报 0722：基本面偏弱，价格重 心下移》 《尿素周报 0812：出口炒作影响盘面情 绪》 《尿素周报 0826：短期反弹，空间有限》 《尿素周报 0909：供强需弱格局延续》 《尿素周报 1021：供应过剩是中长期矛 盾》 《尿素周报 1104：关注反弹后的卖出机 会》 《尿素周报 1118：维持空配观点》 《尿素周报 0217：出口传言再起》 《尿素周报 0310：供需双旺，价格区间 震荡为主》 《尿素周报 0401：需求支撑价格》 《尿素周报 0520：回落空间有限》 《尿素周报 1021：低估值，待驱动》 《尿素周报1112：价格底部或逐步明朗》 期货（期权）研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 行情回顾：近期尿素价格有所回 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Non - ferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Date: December 9, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] 1. Investment Ratings and Strategies Nickel - Strategy: Wait and see [5][92] - Operating Range: 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][92] Stainless Steel - Strategy: Wait for high - shorting opportunities [6][117] - Operating Range: 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][117] 2. Core Views Nickel - The nickel market has a loose fundamental situation with high inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. Due to the repeated expectations of interest rate cuts, after price recovery, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [5][92] Stainless Steel - The cost side has stabilized, but the fundamentals remain weak. Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate at a low level [6][117] 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated within a range, with a weekly increase of 0.54%. The trading volume decreased to 557,300 lots (- 67,400), and the open interest decreased to 117,600 lots (- 9,700). LME nickel increased by 0.95% weekly, and the trading volume increased to 34,700 lots (+ 300) [10] - The basis premium was 2,170 yuan/ton [12] 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ore remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China remained unchanged [18] - In October, the export volume of nickel ore from the Philippines rebounded. China's nickel ore imports reached 4.68 million tons in October, a month - on - month decrease of 23.4% and a year - on - year increase of 11.0% [23] - Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased by 95,400 tons month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 100,000 wet tons [25] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 4.5 yuan/nickel point, and the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel and scrap stainless steel widened [31] - In October, China imported 905,000 tons of nickel pig iron, a month - on - month decrease of 16.6% and a year - on - year increase of 31.0%. The import volume is expected to remain stable in November [35] - The loss of RKEF narrowed, and the operating rate decreased. In December, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic and Indonesian nickel pig iron decreased, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased [37][41][43] Electrolytic Nickel - In December, the operating rate of refined nickel increased, and the production schedule recovered [47] - The import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [51] - In October, both the import and export volumes of electrolytic nickel decreased [55] 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In December, the production schedule of stainless steel and 300 - series stainless steel decreased [60][108] - In October, the export volume of stainless steel decreased (month - on - month decrease of 14.4% and year - on - year decrease of 14.2%), and the import volume increased (month - on - month increase of 3.2% and year - on - year decrease of 21.6%). The import and export volumes are expected to decline in November [64][109] New Energy - The price of pure nickel increased, the price of nickel sulfate decreased, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel narrowed. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely small [69] - In December, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate decreased [74][76] - In October, the production volume of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.6% and a year - on - year increase of 21.1%; the sales volume was 1.715 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.9% and a year - on - year increase of 19.9% [82] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, the inventory of SHFE and LME increased. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained flat, and the six - region social total inventory increased by 1,499 tons [83][88] 1.5 Electrolytic Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from externally purchased high - grade nickel matte and MHP increased, while the cost from externally purchased nickel sulfate decreased. MHP integrated production of electrolytic nickel had a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte integrated production [91] 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures fluctuated upward, with a weekly increase of 1.17%. The basis widened to 1,070 yuan/ton. The trading volume reached 533,300 lots (- 166,100), and the open interest reached 89,400 lots (- 28,000) [95] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat, and the cost side stopped falling [98] - The profit of 200 - series stainless steel expanded, the loss of 300 - series stainless steel narrowed, and the profit of 400 - series stainless steel decreased [102] 2.3 Fundamental Aspects - In December, the production schedule of stainless steel and 300 - series stainless steel decreased [60][108] - In October, the export volume of stainless steel decreased, and the import volume increased. Both are expected to decline in November [64][109] 2.4 Inventory Side - The domestic social inventory of stainless steel decreased. The inventory of 200 - series increased, while the inventory of 300 - series and 400 - series decreased [115]

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Lead" and dated December 9, 2025 [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lead have improved, and lead prices have stabilized and rebounded. Domestic lead ingot supply has tightened regionally, downstream consumption has improved, and with a positive macro - mood, lead prices have gradually stabilized and rebounded. The market is mainly dominated by long - term order purchases, and there is a strong wait - and - see attitude towards spot orders. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory pressure brought by delivery and position transfer, and be wary of lead prices rising and then falling [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 1.18% week - on - week to 17,175 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 1.17% to 17,290 yuan/ton, and the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.41% to 2,009 US dollars/ton [13] 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Lead Concentrate - **Processing Fees**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat week - on - week at 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The tight supply of lead concentrate is expected to continue, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend [30] - **Smelter Profits**: As of November 28, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 452.1 yuan/ton [30] 2.2 Primary Lead - **Operating Rate**: The primary lead operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 65.92%. There are still some smelters with maintenance plans in the future, and it is expected that the primary lead operating rate will not increase significantly [31] - **Production and Maintenance**: The total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises in the week of December 5 was 46,560 tons, and it is expected to be 46,710 tons this week. Some enterprises in Yunnan resumed production after maintenance, while some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi had regular maintenance [36] 2.3 Recycled Lead - **Scrap Battery Prices**: As of December 5, the average price of scrap batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The scrap battery supply has tightened, and prices are expected to have limited decline [45] - **Smelter Profits**: As of December 5, the comprehensive profit of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 363 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was 155 yuan/ton. Profits have improved, but attention should be paid to the impact of raw material price increases on profits [50] - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: As of December 4, recycled lead raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory was 1,480 tons and continued to decline. The recycled lead enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 48.4%. Some enterprises in Inner Mongolia may stop production due to raw material shortages, which may drive a significant decline in the local operating rate [53][56] 3. Demand - Side Analysis - **Lead - Acid Battery Operating Rate**: The lead - acid battery operating rate increased by 1.07 percentage points to 74.46%. Some large enterprises have improved their production enthusiasm, and the consumption of automotive lead - acid batteries has improved in December, driving the operating rate to rise [64] 4. Import and Export Analysis - As of November 28, the refined lead export loss was about 3,200 yuan/ton. As of December 5, the import profit was 157.21 yuan/ton, and the import profit window has opened [77] 5. Inventory Analysis - **Lead Ingot Inventory**: As of December 4, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 2.36 million tons, showing a decline; the factory inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands was 11,850 tons, a week - on - week increase. The social inventory decreased while the factory inventory increased [88] - **Exchange Inventory**: As of December 5, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 34,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease; as of December 4, the LME inventory was 243,550 tons, also showing a decrease [93] - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from July 2024 to August 2025 [94]