| | | 尿素早评20251103: 情绪好转，反转存疑 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 変化值 单位 10月31日 10月30日 | | | | (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | 期现价格 | (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1625.00 1703.00 1460.00 | 1627.00 1705.00 1470.00 | -2.00 -2.00 -10.00 | -0.12% -0.12% -0.68% | | 尿素期货价格 | | | | | | | | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1736.00 | 1735.00 | 1.00 | 0.06% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1590.00 | 1600.00 | -10.00 | -0.63% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1580.00 | 1580.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | (小顆粒) | ...

| | | 尿素早评20251103: 情绪好转，反转存疑 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 変化值 单位 10月31日 10月30日 | | | | (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | 期现价格 | (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1625.00 1703.00 1460.00 | 1627.00 1705.00 1470.00 | -2.00 -2.00 -10.00 | -0.12% -0.12% -0.68% | | 尿素期货价格 | | | | | | | | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1736.00 | 1735.00 | 1.00 | 0.06% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1590.00 | 1600.00 | -10.00 | -0.63% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1580.00 | 1580.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | (小顆粒) | ...

| ,组责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开窗 | | --- | | 牌，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。 赵不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求规告内容的客观、公正，但文中的 | | ,观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何致敬建议、教奋著依据本报告提供的信息进行期货费资质资质的一切后果、本公司强不负责。本报告质权仅为本 | | 公司所有，未经书面许可，在何机物和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和技布、如引用、刊发、深龙明出处为宏源制货、且不得对本报告进行有情愿意的 | | 引用、删节和修改。数据来源:SHM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,按资需谨慎 | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | 近期走势 | 变量名称 | 2025-10-27 铰昨日变动 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-10-31 | 全国氧化铝平均价格 | 2872. 95 | 2872. 04 | 2881. 03 | -0. 91 | | | | -- ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251103：区间整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/11/3 指标 | | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 9,100.00 | -0.60% | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 200.00 | 55.00 | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 56,410.00 | 2.66% | | 基差 元/吨 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | -5,410.00 9,300.00 | -1,460.00 0.00% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 9,200.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead price has faced downward pressure due to weakening downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved supply tightness, and better refinery profits. The zinc price lacks sustained upward momentum due to weak demand and hawkish remarks from the Fed [1]. - For lead, it is recommended to hold previous short positions. For zinc, it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose by 0.23%. The Shanghai lead basis was -165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The spreads between different Shanghai lead contracts showed various changes. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 220,300 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 21,645 tons, also unchanged [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, causing slight fluctuations in primary lead production. For secondary lead, supply has increased as previously - shut - down refineries resume operations. The terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises have decent operations, with demand showing an increase [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.14% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.04%. The Shanghai zinc basis was -145 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The spreads between different Shanghai zinc contracts changed. The LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.97% to 67,774 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The supply is expected to remain around 600,000 tons per month. The demand has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1].

| 幅) | % | % | % | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (10.00) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | % | % ...

| | | 尿素早评20251031: 情绪好转，反转存疑 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 変化值 单位 10月30日 10月29日 | | | | | | | | | UR01 | 元/呼 | 1627.00 | 1644.00 | (絕对圓) -17.00 | (相对值) -1.03% | | 尿素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1705.00 | 1717.00 | -12.00 | -0.70% | | (收盘价) | | | | | | | | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1735.00 | 1747.00 | -12.00 | -0.69% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1600.00 | 1600.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1470.00 | 1470.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1580.00 | 1580.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | ...

[原ta油ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 10 月 31 日 短期或进入震荡降波行情 期货（期权）研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行情回顾：本周油价反弹受阻，开始调整，在上周五及近期的日报中， 我们提示前期多单可以考虑止盈。 观点总结：我们认为油价矛盾有限，短期或进入震荡降波行情。地缘方 面，制裁带来的预期影响已经被基本消化，月间价差开始回落；宏观方 面事件落地，近期市场重要的宏观事件有二：一是美联储主席鲍威尔调 控降息预期，二是中美元首会晤结束，双方对于此前部分贸易措施将暂 停实施，冲突预期得到缓和。基本面方面，本周末 OPEC+将继续举行 会议讨论增产，若是延续小幅增产，则影响有限，若超预期大幅增产， 则盘面短期面临抛售压力，油价或继续试探 55 美元/桶支撑。但宏观风 险可控的情况下，我们认为若有短期抛售压力，仍然是逢低做多机会。 风险提示：俄乌局势、贸易冲突的不确定性。 [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@ ...

Group 1: Core Views - The market demand and supply situation is complex, with the decline in some prices and the increase in some quantities. For example, the price of some products shows a downward trend, and the supply and demand of ethylene glycol are affected by multiple factors such as investment, construction, and news [2]. - The market is in a state of shock, and the future trend is affected by many factors, including macro - environment, industry policies, and enterprise operations. Enterprises need to make corresponding adjustments according to market changes [2]. Group 2: Data Summary - There are price data such as - 1529.09, 6150.00, 2212.50, etc., and percentage data such as - 19.91%, 10.13%, 18.85%, etc. These data involve various products and market indicators, including the prices of polyester, ethylene glycol, and related chemical products [1]. - The price of ethylene glycol is currently in the range of 490 - 492 dollars per ton, and the price of some other products has also changed, with a certain degree of decline or increase [2]. Group 3: Market Situation - The downstream demand has declined, and the market is not very active. The trading volume and price of some products have decreased, and the market sentiment is relatively weak [2]. - The investment and construction in the industry continue, but there are also some problems, such as insufficient demand and unstable market prices [2].

| 2025/10/31 | 品种 | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/10/30 2025/10/30 | 美元/桶 美元/桶 | 60.57 65.00 | 60.48 64.92 | 0.15% 0.12% | | 上 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/10/30 | 美元/吨 | 572.63 | 571.13 | 0.26% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/10/30 | | 美元/吨 | 670.00 | 681.50 | -1.69% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/10/30 | 美元/吨 | 817.00 | 818.00 | -0.12% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/10/30 | 元/吨 | 4570.00 | 4 ...