镍与不锈钢日评20251209:修复后区间震荡 | 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-01 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-08 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 117450.00 | 117460.00 | 280.00 | 117730.00 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 118030.00 | 117790.00 | 240.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 117850.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 118200.00 | 117950.00 | 118060.00 | 250.00 | | | | | 期货连三合约 | 190.00 | 收盘价 | 118390.00 | 118200.00 | 118240.00 | 118030.00 | 240.00 | 收盘价 | 117790.00 | 117850.00 | | | | | | m | 上海期镍 | 成 ...

镍与不锈钢日评20251209:修复后区间震荡 | 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-01 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-08 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 117450.00 | 117460.00 | 280.00 | 117730.00 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 118030.00 | 117790.00 | 240.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 117850.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 118200.00 | 117950.00 | 118060.00 | 250.00 | | | | | 期货连三合约 | 190.00 | 收盘价 | 118390.00 | 118200.00 | 118240.00 | 118030.00 | 240.00 | 收盘价 | 117790.00 | 117850.00 | | | | | | m | 上海期镍 | 成 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, attention should be paid to the callback risk as the recent decline in coal prices brings some downward pressure on the coal - chemical industry. However, in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the oversupply pressure, but from a driving perspective, the urea price is supported at a low level, and the bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices (UR01, UR05, UR09) decreased on December 8 compared to December 5. UR01 dropped from 1673.00 yuan/ton to 1646.00 yuan/ton (-1.61%); UR05 from 1736.00 yuan/ton to 1710.00 yuan/ton (-1.50%); UR09 from 1752.00 yuan/ton to 1724.00 yuan/ton (-1.60%). [1] - Domestic spot prices for small - granular urea in most regions either decreased or remained unchanged. For example, in Shandong, it dropped from 1720.00 yuan/ton to 1690.00 yuan/ton (-1.74%); in Henan, from 1710.00 yuan/ton to 1690.00 yuan/ton (-1.17%). [1] Key Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1661 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1640 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1646 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1651 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 167073 hands. [1] Long - Short Logic - In terms of valuation, the rebound of urea from the bottom is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In terms of drivers, export quotas will ease the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may encourage storage enterprises to enter the market. [1] Trading Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, focus on opportunities to go long on dips. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 8, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The spot market trading was light, and the basis changed from premium to discount. Considering factors such as cost, supply, demand, and inventory, with repeated news of lithium mine resumption in Jiangxi, high weekly production of lithium carbonate, strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment, light spot market trading, and stagnant demand growth, the short - term fundamentals show a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Under position limits, it is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. The recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On December 8th, the trading volume of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 99967 lots (+137860), and the open interest was 593129 lots (+32453). The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts all had certain increases compared to the previous period. [1] Spot Market - As of December 5th, the spot port + warehouse inventory of lithium ore of 30 sample lithium ore traders was 160,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, with salable inventory of 100,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons. Last week, lithium salt prices fluctuated at a high level. Due to contract month - changing and postponed delivery at the ore end, the processing fee space of lithium salt plants increased slightly, and there were more scattered transactions of lithium ore. Overall, lithium ore inventory continued to transfer to lithium salt plants. [1] Cost - The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also increased. [1] Supply - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, with the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreasing and that from other sources increasing. [1] Demand - Downstream: Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the output of ternary materials decreased. In December, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate and manganese acid lithium decreased, while the output of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand: In November, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; 3C shipments weakened; in December, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries stagnated. [1] Inventory - Registered warehouse receipts were 13120 tons (+2198 tons). Social inventory was destocked, with smelters and other sectors reducing inventory, and downstream was tight. [1]

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251209：承压回落 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 近期趋势 2025/12/9 指标 | | | 今值 | 变动 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 | | | 9,300.00 | -0.53% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | | 8,675.00 | -1.48% | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | | 625.00 | 80.00 | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 | | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | | 54,545.00 | -1.74% | | 基差 元/吨 元/吨 | | | -3,545.00 | 965.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 元/吨 | | | 9,300.00 9,300.00 | -0.53% -0.53% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | | 9,200.00 | -1.08% | | 元/吨 ...

| 铅锌日评20251209：沪铅震荡偏强；沪锌震荡整理 | 2025/12/9 | 指标 | 近期趋势 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 17,200.00 | 0.15% | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 元/吨 | 沪铅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 17,340.00 | 0.29% | 元/吨 | | 元/吨 | -140.00 | -25.00 | 沪铅基差 | 20.00 | -5.00 | 升贴水-上海 | 元/吨 | | | 美元/吨 | -49.15 | -9.79 | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 美元/吨 | -94.60 | -3.10 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 价差 | | 元/吨 | -55.00 | -45.00 | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 5.00 | 20.00 | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 元/吨 | 铅 | | 元/吨 | -15.00 | 10.00 | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 | 38,061.00 | -14.49% | 期货活跃合约成交 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices were high in the first half of the week and then declined due to the cooling of gasoline - blending speculation. The market sentiment was strong at the beginning of the week, but there was no substantial positive news in the second half, and the PX supply was not affected. The decline in PX prices was also related to the smaller - than - expected reduction in South Korea's PX exports to China in November [9]. - PTA prices followed the cost trend and declined. Although it rose with the increase of crude oil and PX prices before, its fundamentals did not change significantly, and the downstream polyester operating rate remained at about 89%. Currently, the PTA export outlook is good, and the continuous inventory reduction provides support [9]. 2.2 Market Forecast - Crude oil prices are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range due to the unclear geopolitical situation. For PX, the gasoline - blending logic has been disproven, and attention should be paid to the operation of South Korean PX plants and Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan next year. For PTA, the inventory will change from slight reduction to balance, and the processing fee will remain low this year. The short - term demand for polyester is relatively stable, and there is positive news in the export market, but it is not enough to reduce inventory. The weaving market shows increased activity in new product development for foreign trade orders, but the profit margin is compressed [10]. - Overall, PX will oscillate at a high level in the range of 6,750 - 6,950 yuan/ton, and PTA will also oscillate at a high level in the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - PX futures declined significantly over the weekend as the gasoline - blending speculation faded. From November 28th to December 5th, the closing price of the PX main contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.29%, while the settlement price increased by 84 yuan/ton, a change of 1.24%. From December 1st - 5th, the average basis of the main contract was - 185 yuan/ton, and the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,700.80 yuan/ton, a 2.09% increase from the previous period [13][15][17]. - The price of naphtha in December was 564 dollars/ton, PX CFR China was 848 dollars/ton, and Sinopec's PX contract settlement price was 7,000 yuan/ton (listed price) [18]. 3.1.2 PTA - PTA futures fluctuated around the cost recently. From November 28th to December 5th, the closing price of the PTA main contract decreased by 22 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.47%, and the settlement price increased by 28 yuan/ton, a change of 0.60%. The average basis of the main contract from November 24th - 28th was - 33.20 yuan/ton. The average weekly CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 594 dollars/ton, a 1.71% increase from the previous period, and the average spot price in the East China market was 4,696.4 yuan/ton, a 1.48% increase [19][21][24]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - Domestic PX devices: Many PX plants in different regions have different operating loads. For example, Ningbo Daxie operates at 70 - 80% capacity, and some plants of Zhejiang Petrochemical, Shenghong Refining & Chemical, etc. have specific load - related operations. The domestic PX device load slightly decreased from 88.92% in the period of November 24th - 28th to 88.52% in the period of December 1st - 5th [29][32]. - Asian other PX devices: PX plants in various Asian countries and regions have different operating conditions, such as Pertamina in Indonesia, Exxon Mobil in Singapore, etc., with some plants having maintenance, shutdown, or restart situations [30][31]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Some PTA plants are under maintenance, such as Yisheng Dahua's 225 - million - ton device has been shut down since August 8th, and the restart time is undetermined. The weekly operating rate of PTA devices increased by 1.89%, and there is an enhanced expectation of inventory accumulation from January to February next year [35][36]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - Crude oil: Geopolitical uncertainties support the market. On December 5th, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 60.08 dollars/barrel, a 1.53 - dollar increase from November 28th, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil was 63.75 dollars/barrel, a 1.37 - dollar increase [41][43]. - Naphtha: The economic efficiency continued to be compressed this week, and the East - West arbitrage spread remained high. The weekly average price of naphtha CFR Japan was 571.43 dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 66.16 dollars/ton [47][49]. 3.3.2 Supply - PX processing margin: The PXN weekly average was 284.78 yuan/ton, a 8.08% change from the previous period. The PX - MX remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 116.50 yuan/ton [50][52]. - PTA processing fee: The average spot processing fee of PTA from December 1st - 5th was 169.33 yuan/ton, lower than the previous week's 197.35 yuan/ton. The processing fee is expected to improve next year [54][56]. - Inventory: As of December 5th, the PTA social inventory was 3.804 million tons, a 67,000 - ton decrease from the previous week. The inventory days of PTA factories and polyester factories increased. The domestic PTA manufacturers' average inventory usage days were 3.92 days, and the polyester factories' raw material inventory days were 7.50 days as of December 4th [59][61][65]. 3.3.3 Demand - Polyester: The average market prices of polyester products such as polyester filament and polyester staple fiber changed. The average weekly polyester production and sales were estimated to be 50%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.11%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 71.20%. As of December 4th, the filament inventory increased [67][69][72]. - Weaving: The domestic weaving market is in the off - season. The order volume of weaving and dyeing factories is low, and the inventory pressure of grey fabrics is increasing. Although the activity of new product development for foreign trade orders has increased, the profit margin of enterprises is compressed. As of December 4th, the opening rates of weaving machines in different regions changed to different extents [82][84].

免费声明:宏源规货有限公司关经中国证监会批准设立的规律经营机构、已具备知货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料、本公 司时这些信息的准确性和党整性不修任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求提普内容的客观、公正,但文中的观点、精沧和建议 仅供参考。不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果。本公司概不负责。（风险提示:期市有风险 八市需谨慎） 研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据来源:SMM W 镍与不锈钢日评20251208:修复后区间震荡 | 2025-12-04 | 2025-11-28 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-05 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 117450.00 | 117340.00 | 116730.00 | 110.00 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

有色金属周报-锌 下游观望情绪较重，锌价上方空间或有限 2025年12月8日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：美联储降息预期增强，市场风险偏好提升，加之国 | | | | | 内政治局会议召开，宏观情绪整体偏暖。 | | | |  | 原料端：趋紧。国产周度TC均价环比降低200元/金属吨至 | | | | | 1,850元/金属吨，进口锌精矿指数环比下降3.5美元/干吨至 | | | | | 57.75美元/干吨。12月国内炼厂减产规模进一步扩大，对 | | | | | 锌精矿需求有所减少，但国内锌精矿供给同样偏紧，矿端 | | | | | 紧缺状况未见缓解，预计12月TC延续跌势。 | 宏观情绪偏暖，叠加供给端收缩， | | |  | 成本利润：TC持续下调，产业链利润再次从炼厂端转至矿 | 锌价走势偏强，但随着锌价不断 | 下方支撑稳 | | | 端，上周锌价走势偏强，加之副产品收益补充 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the Fed's expected rate cut in December, global debt expansion, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical risks are likely to support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term. However, the high price of platinum may curb downstream demand, and the supply - demand situation of lithium is expected to shift from tight to loose, which may lead to price adjustments for both [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 958.27 yuan/gram, with a change of 7.56 compared to the previous day and - 2.27 compared to the previous week. International gold's COMEX futures active contract closing price was 4227.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.20 compared to the previous day and 31.60 compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 13687.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 263.00 compared to the previous day and 409.00 compared to the previous week. International silver's COMEX futures active contract closing price was 58.80 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.27 compared to the previous day and 5.04 compared to the previous week [1]. 3.2 Important Information - China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces (about 2305.39 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of increase [1]. - The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, increased by 2.8% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. US consumer confidence ended a four - month decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest point at the beginning of the year [1]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Logic - **Gold and Silver**: The mixed performance of the US economic and employment data, along with some Fed officials' support for a December rate cut, keeps the probability of a December rate cut above 80%. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries lead to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth, and central banks' continuous gold - buying, along with geopolitical risks, may support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - **Platinum**: High mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging equipment limit platinum production, while increased demand from traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles due to stricter emission standards and optimistic demand from other industries lead to a tight global platinum supply - demand situation in 2025 - 2026. However, high platinum prices may curb downstream demand [1]. - **Lithium**: Supply is affected by deep - mine mining, power shortages, etc., but increased recycling is expected. Demand from the automotive industry is expected to decline, while demand from other industries has low elasticity. The global lithium supply - demand situation is expected to shift from tight to loose in 2025 - 2026 [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: When prices decline, it is advisable to go long. For London gold, pay attention to support levels around 3900 - 4100 and resistance levels around 4300 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, support levels are around 890 - 920 and resistance levels are around 970 - 1000. For London silver, support levels are around 49 - 54 and resistance levels are around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, support levels are around 12500 - 15000 and resistance levels are around 14000 - 15000 [1]. - **Platinum**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. Hold "long platinum, short palladium" positions cautiously. For London platinum, pay attention to support levels around 1300 - 1500 and resistance levels around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, support levels are around 335 - 385 and resistance levels are around 465 - 516 [1]. - **Lithium**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. For London lithium, pay attention to support levels around 1190 - 1390 and resistance levels around 1600 - 1800; for domestic lithium, support levels are around 305 - 357 and resistance levels are around 415 - 465 [1].