Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On October 30, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a high level. The current supply and demand are both strong, the upstream inventory pressure is not significant, and the situation has improved. The cancellation of warehouse receipts has driven the price up. However, the production remains at a high level. After the price increase, the downstream inventory replenishment slows down, and the inflection point of power demand may be approaching. One should be cautious about the price rising and then falling. It is recommended to go short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 30, the closing price of the near - month contract was 81,840 yuan/ton (+100), the closing price of the consecutive - one contract was 83,260 yuan/ton (+520), the closing price of the consecutive - two contract was 83,000 yuan/ton (+600), the closing price of the consecutive - three contract was 83,000 yuan/ton (+600), and the closing price was 83,400 yuan/ton (+500) [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 829,117 lots (+169,696), and the open interest of the active contract was 532,871 lots (+25,989) [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 27,641 tons (+116) [3]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 1,420 yuan/ton (-420), the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 260 yuan/ton (-80), and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (0) [3]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 3,400 yuan/ton (+350) [3]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 944 US dollars/ton (+16), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,380 yuan/ton (+50), and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,180 yuan/ton (+50) [3]. - **Lithium Product Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 80,000 yuan/ton (+850), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 77,800 yuan/ton (+850), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic, coarse - grained) was 75,380 yuan/ton (+300) [3]. - **Other Product Prices**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95% domestic) was 106,000 yuan/ton (+3,000), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 103,850 yuan/ton (0), and the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 35,805 yuan/ton (+210) [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, mainly due to a slight decline in the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene. In October, the production of lithium carbonate and manganese - based lithium increased [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, and the production of power batteries increased. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries increased in October [3]. Inventory Analysis - The registered warehouse receipts were 27,641 tons (+116), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and downstream enterprises decreased, while the inventory of other sectors increased [3]. News - On the afternoon of October 30, the auction of Albemarle spodumene powder ore ended. The auction target was 16,400 dry tons of 5.21% spodumene powder ore from Wodgma, and the actual transaction price was 7,058 yuan/ton (including tax) [3].

| | | 尿素早评20251031: 情绪好转，反转存疑 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 変化值 单位 10月30日 10月29日 | | | | | | | | | UR01 | 元/呼 | 1627.00 | 1644.00 | (絕对圓) -17.00 | (相对值) -1.03% | | 尿素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1705.00 | 1717.00 | -12.00 | -0.70% | | (收盘价) | | | | | | | | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1735.00 | 1747.00 | -12.00 | -0.69% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1600.00 | 1600.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1470.00 | 1470.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1580.00 | 1580.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | ...

| | 1.受宏观经济及成本压力影响,Glencore流手澳大利亚MurrinNarin操钻矿的3500万澳元联邦可再生能源枢纽补贴。哲停演项目 | | --- | --- | | 资讯 | 的太阳能、风能及电池基础设施开发。当前印尼操供应激增引发银价大幅下跌、BHP、FirstQuantum等企业已帮俗当地运营, | | | 澳大利亚鼎行业信心受挫,MurrinMurrin与IGONova成为该国仅存的两座在产架矿。(上海金属网) | | | 10月30日,沪铁主力合约高开低走,成交量为99113手(-10149),特色量为107897手(-1789),伦躲跌0.75%。现货币场成交 | | | 尚可,基差升水扩大。供给端,银矿价格持平,上周铁矿到港量城少,港口库存去序;煤铁厂亏损幅皮加深,10月国内排产 | | | 增加,印尼排产增加,镍铁去序;10月国内电解裂排产增加,出口盈利扩大。富求端,三元排产增加;不锈钢厂排产增加; | | र्स | 合金与电镀需求稳定。库存来看,上期所增加,LME减少,社会再存增加,保税区库存减少。综上,银基本面偏弱并有厚存 | | | 压力,但估值处于低位,预计镍价低位震荡 ...

| 1.0025年前三季度有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上,中色协党委常委陈学森表示,根据中国有色金属工业协会各分 | 会统计,新能源金属中工业硅产量为32.8万吨,同比下降10.8%:电解银产量为34.7万吨,同比增长50.6%;精炼钻产量为13.4 | 资讯 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 万吨,同比下降3.7%:碳酸锂产量为58.8万吨,同比增长28.0%。(有色新闻) | | | | | 10月29日,沪铁主力合约区间震荡,成交量为109262手(-47034),持仓量为109686手(-5360),伦操涨0.71%。现货市场成交 | 较弱,基差升水缩小。供给端,银矿价格持平,上周铁矿到选量城少,港口库存去摩;织铁厂亏损幅皮加深,10月国内排产 | | | | 增加,印尼排产增加,镍铁去库;10月国内电解裂群产增加,出口盈利扩大。需求端,三元排产增加;不锈钢厂排产增加; | 合金与电镀需求稳定。库存来看,上期所增加,LNE增加,社会再存增加,保税区库存减少。综上,银基本面编弱并有屏存 | र्स | | | 压力,但估值处于低位,预计镍价低位震荡。 | 【交易策略】 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View - Methanol continued its weak and volatile market. The upward driving force for methanol in the short - term is limited. It is recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the current strategy is to remain on the sidelines [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: MA01 increased by 16 yuan/ton (0.71%) to 2257 yuan/ton; MA05 rose by 18 yuan/ton (0.78%) to 2321 yuan/ton; MA09 went up by 14 yuan/ton (0.62%) to 2289 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Prices**: Prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.44%) to 2240 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions such as Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Sichuan - Chongqing remained unchanged [1] - **Cost and Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-4.33%) to 220.70 yuan/ton; Northwest MTO profit dropped by 20 yuan/ton (-86.96%) to 3 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased by 12.50 yuan/ton (-1.75%) to -727.07 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 rose slightly, opening at 2234 yuan/ton, closing at 2257 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 585,627 lots and an open interest of 1,197,415 lots, showing a decrease in both volume and open interest [1] - **Foreign**: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, and a previously shut - down 1.65 - million - ton plant has restarted at 80% capacity. The total estimated methanol loading volume in this Middle - Eastern country this month is around 8 million tons [1] 3.3 Market Analysis - **Long - Short Logic**: Methanol prices are relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices. The short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream replenishment demand. The inventory turning point may occur around mid - November, and potential future drivers may come from supply - side reductions such as gas restrictions in Iran [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For lead, after a significant increase, the lead price faced downward pressure due to weakened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, improved supply, and better refinery profits. It is expected to continue to decline, and the recommendation is to hold previous short positions [1]. - For zinc, although the zinc price has some support from macro - sentiment improvement and a tightened domestic ore supply pattern, due to weak domestic terminals, its upward momentum is insufficient, and the recommendation is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Lead Market - **Price Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged at 17,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead decreased by 0.03% to 17,350 yuan/ton. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was not provided with a change percentage, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 0.18% to 8.58 [1]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has a slight fluctuation. A large - scale recycled lead refinery in the East China region is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons of recycled refined lead in November, increasing supply. The terminal market has improved, and the operation of lead - acid battery enterprises is okay, increasing demand [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous short positions [1]. Zinc Market - **Price Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.18% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc decreased by 0.29% to 22,365 yuan/ton. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 0.83% to 3,044.50 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio increased by 0.55% to 7.35 [1]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased to 3,250 yuan/metal ton last week, and the imported zinc ore processing fee index decreased to 110.25 dollars/dry ton. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. The monthly output is expected to remain around 600,000 tons. The demand has not improved significantly, but the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [1]. Market News - A large - scale recycled lead refinery in the East China region started the furnace - drying operation on Monday and plans to start formal production this weekend, which is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons of recycled refined lead in November [1]. - The LME plans to formulate permanent rules to restrict members with large positions in near - month contracts when inventory levels are low. The new rules require members with long - position sizes exceeding the total inventory to borrow metals back to the market at zero premium, and expand the regulatory scope for shorter - term contracts. The consultation will be open until November 21 [1].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251031：区间整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/10/31 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 9,155.00 | -0.16% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 元/吨 | 145.00 | 15.00 | | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 54,950.00 | -0.07% | | 基差 | 元/吨 元/吨 | -3,950.00 | 40.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 9,350.00 | 0.00% 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,200.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,350.00 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core View of the Report There is no clear core view presented in the given content. It mainly lists a series of price, production, and profit - related data of various chemical products. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - The price of crude oil on October 30, 2025, was $572.63 per ton, up 0.26% from the previous value of $571.13 [1] - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia on October 29, 2025, was $766 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China on October 30, 2025, was $610 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price of methanol on October 30, 2025, was $2212.5 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The tax - included price of lignite in Inner Mongolia on October 30, 2025, was $290 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain product on October 30, 2025, was $4073 per ton, up 0.20% from the previous value of $4081 [1] - The closing price of the near - month contract on October 30, 2025, was $390 per ton, a significant change compared to other values [1] - The intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China on October 30, 2025, was $4150 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts on October 30, 2025, was $70 per ton, compared to a previous value of $34 [1] - The comprehensive price of ethylene glycol on October 30, 2025, was $83 per ton, up $3 from the previous value [1] Production and Capacity Utilization - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol on October 30, 2025, was 66.57%, with no change from the previous value [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on October 30, 2025, was 61.16%, with no change from the previous value [1] - The capacity utilization rate of the PTA industry factory on October 30, 2025, was 89.28%, with no change from the previous value [1] - The capacity utilization rate of looms in the Zhejiang and Jiangsu PTA industries on October 30, 2025, was 72.28%, up 0.22% from the previous value of 72.06 [1] Profit Data - The after - tax gross profit per ton of a certain product on October 30, 2025, was $1510.24, compared to a previous value of $1529.09 [1] Index Data - The price index of polyester on October 30, 2025, was $8450 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber on October 30, 2025, was $6360 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips on October 30, 2025, was $5720 per ton, up 0.3% from the previous value of $5740 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The PX benefit will remain stable in the short - term, and attention should be paid to subsequent industry meetings. For PTA, if demand does not improve sustainably, the upward space will be limited. The PR market has sufficient supply and weak demand [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: As of October 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.48 per barrel, up 0.55%; Brent crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.81%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $571.13 per ton, up 0.44%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $681.00 per ton, up 0.22%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $818.00 per ton, up 0.49% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,636 yuan per ton, up 0.48%; the settlement price was 4,610 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,535 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA (domestic) remained unchanged, while the external price index was $601.00 per ton, down 2.12% [1]. - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,652 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 6,614 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,451 yuan per ton, down 1.13% [1]. - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,726 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the settlement price was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; in the South China market, it was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,450 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; POY was 6,775 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; FDY68D remained unchanged at 6,950 yuan per ton; FDY150D remained unchanged at 6,700 yuan per ton; polyester staple fiber was 6,360 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; polyester chips remained unchanged at 5,605 yuan per ton; bottle - grade chips were 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [2]. Spread Information - On October 29, 2025, the PXN spread was $246.88 per ton, up 0.61%; the PX - MX spread was $137.00 per ton, up 1.86%. The TA near - far month spread was - 48 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan; the TA basis was - 101 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan. The PX basis was - 201 yuan per ton, a decrease of 108 yuan. The PR basis in the East China market was 14 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34 yuan; in the South China market, it was 54 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34 yuan [1]. Operating Conditions - As of October 29, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 80.09%, up 0.63%; the polyester factory load rate was 89.28%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 73.31%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.06%, up 0.20% [1]. Production and Sales Rates - On October 29, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 48.87%, down 13.63 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 43.57%, up 0.07 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 37.06%, down 20.55 percentage points [1]. Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton PTA device of Dushan Energy's No. 4 (design capacity) started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2]. Market Analysis - **PX**: Overnight crude oil was weak, and the oil price cooled down after horizontal adjustment. The domestic PX operating load remained high, and the PTA main suppliers' symposium was about to be held. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,652 yuan per ton. Market rumors about a refinery's shutdown had no follow - up, and overseas devices ran smoothly. The call for anti - involution in the industry had little impact on PX supply and demand in the short - term [2]. - **PTA**: The industry meeting boosted market sentiment. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,636 yuan per ton. The PTA market fluctuated narrowly, and the spot basis strengthened slightly under the expectation of production reduction. The new PTA device in East China started trial production, but the anti - involution expectation offset its impact. It may be difficult to coordinate a new production reduction plan, and the upward space will be limited without continuous demand improvement [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5710 - 5830 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, the market atmosphere was weak, and downstream purchasing willingness was low. The PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton. The supply of the bottle - chip market was relatively sufficient, and the demand was weak [2].

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