Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Since the beginning of the year, the alumina futures price has been continuously declining, hitting new lows and breaking key support levels, mainly due to a serious imbalance between supply and demand. The subsequent trend depends on the direction of ore prices and the scale of production cuts [3][4] - The stock index futures market is calm without major negative factors, and the short - term is expected to continue the volatile and bullish pattern [7] - After the holiday, the A - share market had a good start, with small - cap stocks led by the CSI 1000 performing well, rising more than 2% [8] - The medium - and long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. It is more likely to be in a strong volatile trend, but it faces a short - term technical correction [11][12] - In May, the iron ore market has a large supply surplus pressure due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the weak reality increases the risk of high valuations. It is recommended to consider shorting at high levels [16] - The glass market needs the real estate stimulus effect or major policy to boost demand. The short - term is in a volatile and bearish trend [19] - The caustic soda market price is running at a low level, with no sign of improvement in downstream demand. It is expected to be weak in the short term [22] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - Supply: Multiple new domestic alumina production capacity projects have been put into operation, and overseas projects have also released capacity, increasing supply pressure [3] - Demand: The downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, and the demand for alumina has limited growth, unable to absorb the excess supply [3] - Cost: The shipment of Guinea bauxite has increased significantly, and the import price has continued to decline. The cost support for alumina has weakened [3] Stock Index Futures - Market situation: There are no major negative factors, and today's large gap - up positive line indicates a short - term volatile and bullish pattern [7] Gold - Long - term: The medium - and long - term upward logic remains unchanged [11] - Short - term: There is a technical correction due to the short - term ebb of risk - aversion sentiment and large accumulated gains [12] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: In May, downstream export reduction and shipment increase lead to a large supply surplus, and domestic demand is turning to the seasonal off - season [16] - Strategy: Consider shorting at high levels due to heavy upward pressure [16] Glass - Demand: Demand growth depends on real estate stimulus or major policies [19] - Market situation: The price hit a new low today, and the short - term is in a volatile and bearish trend [19] Caustic Soda - Market price: Running at a low level [22] - Demand: Downstream demand shows no sign of improvement, especially the continuous production cut in the alumina industry [22] - Outlook: Expected to be weak in the short term [22]

金信期货日刊 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 3 0 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 豆油豆粕期价下跌，背后原因到底是什么? ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.从供应端来看，巴西大豆丰产，4月起月均到港量预计大幅增加，且随着进口巴西大豆陆续到厂， 市场预计五一节后油厂开工率将恢复正常 ，这使得豆油供应不断增加，而需求增长却较为缓慢，供 大于求的局面给价格带来下行压力。 2.在需求层面，全球经济增长放缓，消费者购买力下降，餐饮业复苏缓慢，导致食用油整体需求减弱。 同时，棕榈油价格低位，豆棕价差倒挂，替代品竞争抑制了豆油的市场需求。 3.政策因素也不容忽视，美国生物柴油政策存在不确定性，影响了豆油在工业领域的需求预期。市场 担忧政策变化导致豆油需求减少，进而引发价格下跌。多种因素交织，最终造成了4月29日豆油期货 价格的暴跌。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 2 9 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 豆油豆粕期价下跌，背后原因到底是什么? 2025年4月28日豆油豆粕期货价格暴跌，主要有以下几方面原因： 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从供应端来看，巴西大豆丰产，4月起月均到港量预计大幅增加，且随着进口巴西大豆陆续到厂，市 场预计五一节后油厂开工率将恢复正常 ，这使得豆油供应不断增加，而需求增长却较为缓慢，供大 于求的局面给价格带来下行压力。 在需求层面，全球经济增长放缓，消费者购买力下降，餐饮业复苏缓慢，导致食用油整体需求减弱。 同时，棕榈油价格低位，豆棕价差倒挂，替代品竞争抑制了豆油的市场需求。 政策因素也不容忽视，美国生物柴油政策存在不确定性，影响了豆油在工业领域的需求预期。市场 担忧政策变化导致豆油需求减少，进而引发价格下跌。多种因素交织，最终造成了4月28日豆油期货 价格的暴跌。 | 主力动 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Journal" - Date: April 28, 2025 - Research Focus: Analysis of the sharp decline in hog futures prices and technical analysis of various futures I. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report II. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in hog futures prices on April 24, 2025, was mainly caused by supply, demand, and market sentiment factors. Future hog supplies are expected to be sufficient, demand is weak, and previous bullish factors have been realized, leading to concerns about supply pressure and a subsequent price slump [3][4] - For stock index futures, the short - term is a complex shock pattern, and the low point of the previous day is crucial. Above this point, there is still upward momentum; below it indicates weakness [7] - Gold is facing a short - term technical correction due to the short - term ebb of risk - aversion sentiment and large accumulated gains. However, the long - term upward logic remains intact. The low point of the previous day is a key point [11] - Iron ore prices may be supported by short - term replenishment demand during the steel mill复产 cycle, but are constrained by long - term capacity expansion and other factors. The market is in a short - term wide - range shock [14] - Glass demand needs real estate stimulus or major policies to increase. The short - term trend is bearish [17] - Due to the approaching end of the Brazilian new - season soybean harvest and a bumper harvest, the upward space for domestic soybean (bean one) prices is limited [20] III. Summary by Category 1. Hog Futures - **Supply Side**: Official data shows that the number of breeding sows increased until the end of December last year, indicating an upward trend in theoretical hog slaughter until the end of October this year. The number of newborn piglets in March this year was close to the high level in 2023, putting pressure on the September contract. The weight gain and supply shift caused by hog backlogging and secondary fattening from February to April will increase future supply pressure [3] - **Demand Side**: Despite the approaching May Day holiday, high hog prices have reduced consumer purchasing willingness, and some consumers have chosen alternative meats. Current consumption is in a off - season, and daily pork demand is stable, unable to drive up prices [4] - **Market Sentiment**: Previous bullish factors for hog futures prices have been realized, and concerns about supply pressure in the production - increasing cycle have intensified, leading to the price slump [4] 2. Stock Index Futures - Policy side: The Ministry has denied Sino - US tariff negotiation consultations. Technically, the short - term is a complex shock pattern, and the low point of the previous day is important [7] - Market performance: The three major indexes showed continued divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up and the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, and CSI 1000 closing down [8] 3. Gold Futures - Short - term: Risk - aversion sentiment has ebbed, and there are many profit - taking positions. It is facing a technical correction. - Long - term: The long - term upward logic remains intact due to the damaged US dollar credit. The low point of the previous day is a key point for judging the short - term trend [11] 4. Iron Ore Futures - Short - term: Steel mills are in the复产 cycle, and short - term replenishment demand may support prices. - Long - term: Constrained by capacity expansion. Trade frictions may indirectly affect exports and steel demand, and the lack of substantial positive news from the Politburo meeting has weakened market sentiment. The short - term is in a wide - range shock [14] 5. Glass Futures - Demand: Demand needs real estate stimulus or major policies to increase. Currently, daily melting is at a low level, spot sales have improved slightly, but factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation [17][18] - Technical: The price closed down and broke the low again, with a short - term bearish trend [17] 6. Bean One Futures - Supply: The Brazilian new - season soybean harvest is nearly complete, and a bumper harvest is certain. Future exports will set a record, so domestic supply is not tight, and the upward space for bean one prices is limited [20]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 2 5 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 2025年4月24日为什么黄金下跌而白银上涨？ 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.黄金价格下跌，主要是因为前期涨幅过大，积累了较多获利盘。4月22日现货黄金价格首次突破 3500美元/盎司的历史高位，大量投资者选择获利了结 ，引发抛售潮。同时，市场避险情绪降温，特 朗普改口称"无意解雇鲍威尔" ，缓解美联储独立性担忧，俄乌冲突也现缓和迹象，投资者不再大 量涌入黄金避险。另外，美元反弹，美联储释放"鹰派信号" ，美元指数回升至98.95，以美元计价 的黄金价格受到压制。 2.白银上涨则得益于自身供需关系的变化。在供应端，白银矿产开采增速缓慢，且回收量有限，导致 供应相对紧张。需求端却十分强劲，白银在工业领域应用广泛，在太阳能、电动汽车、半导体等行 业需求持续攀升。全球对清洁能源的重视，使得太阳能产业发展迅 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: April 24, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Gold Closes with a Negative Line. Has the Price Reached the Peak?" [2] Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are under downward pressure due to the rebound of the US dollar and US stocks, profit - taking by long - positions, and increased policy uncertainty [3] - The short - term trend of stock index futures is expected to continue the strong oscillation pattern, while the price is considered too high and is likely to be significantly reduced [7] - In the long - term, the upward logic of gold remains unchanged. After a short and rapid adjustment around the 10 - day moving average, gold will resume rising at a slower pace [11] - Iron ore prices may be supported by short - term replenishment demand during the steel mill's复产 cycle but are constrained by long - term capacity expansion. The short - term trading strategy turns to oscillation with a bullish bias [14] - The demand for glass needs the stimulus effect of the real estate sector or major policies to be fully released. The short - term trading strategy is to view it as an oscillating market [18] - Due to the approaching end of the Brazilian new - season soybean harvest and a bumper harvest, the upward space for domestic soybean prices is limited [22] Section Summaries Hotspot Focus - The US dollar index rose 0.6% to 98.95, and US stocks rebounded, diverting funds from the gold market. Gold prices were also affected by profit - taking and policy uncertainty [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The short - term trend of stock index futures is expected to maintain a strong oscillation pattern, and the price is likely to be significantly reduced [7] Technical Analysis - Gold - In the long - term, the upward logic of gold remains. After a short - term adjustment around the 10 - day moving average, gold will rise again at a slower pace. In the short - term, it faces a technical correction [11] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Short - term replenishment demand during the steel mill's复产 cycle may support iron ore prices, but long - term capacity expansion is a constraint. The short - term trading strategy turns to oscillation with a bullish bias [14] Technical Analysis - Glass - The demand for glass needs the real estate stimulus or major policies. The short - term trading strategy is to view it as an oscillating market [18] Technical Analysis - Soybean No.1 - Due to the approaching end of the Brazilian new - season soybean harvest and a bumper harvest, the upward space for domestic soybean prices is limited [22]

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 4月份我们连续出了3篇黄金专题报告，分别为《全球大乱局下黄金走势展望》 （4月6日）、《飞起玉龙三百万，扶摇直上九重天》（4月12日）以及《金潮涌 动穿云起，势比苍龙破九霄》（4月20日）。 在这3篇报告中，我们观点始终一致，即对黄金长线看多的观点。整个4月份， 黄金价格也出现了历史罕见的大涨行情，截止到4月22日，国际金价高点突破 3500美元/盎司，国内期货金价高点涨破835元/克，再度刷新历史新高。 虽然我们长线看好黄金的观点依然维持不变，但站在当前的时间点，技术面 超买与获利了结压力正在逐渐加大，短线有较大的回调风险。建议各位投资者不 要盲目追高，可以等待出现回调后再度进场做多。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：文华、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：文华、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 物极必反，黄金虽然在宏观面和基本面上存在长线向上的驱动，但短期涨幅过大， 也包含了过度乐观的情绪。近期价格过快地上涨使黄金的乖离率如此之大，显示市场处 于超买状态，技术性回调风 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 2 3 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 氧化铝期货涨势乏力，价格维持弱势震荡 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.从供应端来看，产能扩张仍在持续。国内新增产能集中释放，像广西、山西等地年初的新增产能陆 续投产，还有部分前期检修的产能也在恢复，使得氧化铝产量居高不下，市场供应极为充裕。同时， 铝土矿作为氧化铝生产的关键原料，供应形势明显改善。几内亚铝土矿发运效率提升，进口量稳定 增长，国内港口铝土矿库存持续处于高位，为氧化铝生产提供了充足的原料保障，也使得氧化铝生 产成本支撑减弱。 2.需求端表现同样不尽人意。下游电解铝行业受到高库存的压制，社会库存达到84.5万吨 ，严重限 制了其产能扩张的步伐，对氧化铝的采购需求也随之放缓。并且，虽然处于传统旺季，但铝下游的 建筑、汽车、包装等行业需求复苏缓 ...

金信期货日刊 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.从供应层面来看，近期纯碱装置运行平稳，产量一直维持在高位。即便后续有部分装置检修计划， 但整体供应压力依然较大。2025年纯碱产能预计继续增加300万吨，增速约7% ，过剩局面愈发严峻。 持续的高供应给价格上涨带来了巨大阻力。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 2 2 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 2.需求端同样表现疲软，难以支撑纯碱期货价格上扬。下游玻璃行业需求一般，光伏玻璃产能过剩情 况难以在短期内扭转，轻质纯碱需求也较为低迷。浮法玻璃市场需求改善有限，对原料提振乏力， 尽管预计4月玻璃市场有望稳步回暖，对原料端支撑环比改善，但短期内难以对纯碱价格形成强支撑。 需求的萎靡使得纯碱市场供过于求的矛盾更为突出。 3.库存方面也对纯碱期货价格形成压制。截至4月17日，国内纯碱厂家总库存171.13万吨 ，库存处于 高位，后续去库压力较大。高库 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Goldtrust Futures Daily - Date: April 21, 2025 Core Viewpoints - The glass futures price is struggling to rise due to a relatively loose supply - demand pattern, high inventory pressure, and a lack of strong upward - driving factors [2][3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index and other large - cap stocks support the index, while small - and medium - cap stocks represented by the CSI 1000 oscillate in the 5550 - 5750 range in the short term [7] - Macroeconomic uncertainties have a significant positive impact on gold and other precious metals [11] - The iron ore price may be supported by short - term replenishment demand during the steel mill's复产 cycle but is constrained by long - term capacity expansion. Trade friction may have an indirect negative impact [15] - The glass futures market turns to a short - term oscillating and bearish outlook due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [19] - Domestic soybeans used for food processing are in a long - term oversupply situation and are difficult to maintain high prices for a long time [23] Industry Analysis Glass Futures - Supply - demand: The overall supply has an increasing expectation, while downstream demand growth is slow. The weekend sales in Shahe weakened, and the shipment in East China slowed down, resulting in a loose market pattern [3] - Inventory: As of the week of April 17, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 65.078 million heavy boxes, with a week - on - week decrease of 125,000 heavy boxes (0.19%), but still at a high level [3] - Driving factors: There are no significant positive factors such as large - scale policy stimulus or concentrated demand outbreaks [4] Stock Index Futures - Market performance: Large - cap stocks support the index, and small - and medium - cap stocks oscillate in the 5550 - 5750 range in the short term [7] Gold - Macroeconomic impact: High uncertainty and randomness in policies, deterioration of global trade, and increased recession expectations are beneficial to gold [11] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: Short - term replenishment demand during the steel mill's复产 cycle may support the price, but long - term capacity expansion is a constraint. Trade friction may indirectly reduce exports and steel demand [15] - Market sentiment: Risk - aversion may lead to capital outflows. Domestic policies may have a supporting effect [15] Glass - Market situation: The daily melting volume is low, spot sales have improved slightly, but factory inventories are high, and downstream demand depends on real - estate stimulus or major policies [19] - Technical analysis: The futures price dropped significantly, breaking the previous consolidation platform, with a short - term bearish outlook [19] Soybean (Domestic) - Supply - demand: Domestic soybeans are mainly for food processing, in a long - term oversupply situation, and lack competitiveness in oil - pressing compared with imported soybeans [23] - Price trend: After the recent strong rebound of soybean futures, the price difference between domestic and foreign soybeans has widened rapidly, and it is difficult to maintain high prices for a long time [23]