Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for coking coal has been ignited, with prices reaching the daily limit for the third time. The price increase is driven by tightened supply expectations due to production - inspection policies and various supply - side factors, as well as strong demand from steel mills and coking enterprises [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue to oscillate upwards. Gold is likely to restart its upward trend. The iron ore market is in a positive feedback repair state, and its short - term trend cannot be determined. The glass market shows a continued uptrend, and the palm oil market's upside may be restricted by weak exports [7][11][15][18][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - On July 23, coking coal hit the second daily limit, and on the current day, it hit the limit again with a 7.97% increase, closing at 1198.5 yuan. The National Energy Administration's production - overrun verification notice on July 22 and other factors have tightened supply expectations [3]. - On the supply side, production has been affected by safety inspections after mine accidents in Shanxi and rainfall in major production areas, and Mongolian coal imports have decreased. On the demand side, steel mills have good profits, high iron - water production, and coking enterprises are likely to raise prices for the second time, with strong downstream procurement [3]. A - share Market - The three major A - share indexes opened lower and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3600 points. Affected by factors such as Hainan's customs closure and anti - involution in various industries, the market is expected to continue to oscillate upwards [7][8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to an adjustment in gold prices, but the long - term bullish view remains unchanged. After sufficient weekly - line adjustments, it is likely to restart its upward trend [11][12]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and iron - water production remains high due to good steel - mill profits. The industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it is in a high - level consolidation, and the trend cannot be determined to have ended [15]. Glass - The supply side has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are gradually decreasing, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power. The market is mainly driven by news and sentiment, with a continued uptrend [18][19]. Palm Oil - The new US renewable fuel policy has boosted Chicago soybean oil prices, which is beneficial for the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports in Malaysia may limit its upward momentum [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 23, 2025, the main contract of coking coal opened strongly and hit the daily limit, with a gain of 11% and closing at 1,135.5 yuan, becoming the focus of the futures market again [3]. - The market expects a tightening of coking coal supply due to the National Energy Administration's verification notice on over - production of coal mines on July 22, leading to a large influx of funds and pushing the price to the limit up [4]. - In the A - share market, the three major indexes showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3,600 points during the session and finally closing with a high - level doji star [9]. - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices, but the long - term upward trend remains [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Price Movement**: On July 23, 2025, the main contract of coking coal opened and hit the daily limit, with a 11% increase, closing at 1,135.5 yuan [3]. - **Supply Factors**: The National Energy Administration's notice on coal mine over - production, safety inspections after mine accidents in Shanxi, rainfall affecting production and transportation in main producing areas, and a decline in Mongolian coal imports have all contributed to a supply gap [4]. - **Demand Factors**: Steel mills have good profits, high hot metal production, and coking enterprises' second price increase is likely to be implemented, leading to strong downstream demand [4]. Stock Index Futures - The US Treasury Secretary announced that the third round of China - US consultations will be held next week, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate [8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices. However, after sufficient weekly adjustments, gold is likely to resume its upward trend and is expected to fluctuate upwards [13]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, hot metal production remains high due to good steel mill profits, and the industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, after a rise and then a fall, it is not yet certain that the upward trend has ended, and the focus is on protecting profits [17]. Glass - There has been no significant change in the fundamentals, with no major cold - repair situation in the supply side, marginal reduction in factory inventories, and weak restocking motivation for downstream deep - processing orders. Technically, after a rise and then a fall, the focus is on protecting profits [18][19]. Palm Oil - The US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices and helping the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Based on historical patterns and the current policy - economic environment, it is likely that a dual - bull market for stocks and commodities will reappear from 2025 to 2026. Commodities will lead the way first, and the stock market will experience a full - scale upsurge after profit realization. In the context of the "Fed rate - cut cycle" and the "initiation of the restocking cycle", future commodity demand may shift from a structural recovery to a full - scale expansion, driving up the prices of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and energy - chemical products. The stock market is currently in the early stage of a bull market and is about to transition to a subsequent profit - driven stage. In the second half of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 4,000 points and rise at an accelerated pace. If the "anti - involution" reform can effectively address the negative feedback of insufficient domestic demand and over - capacity, Chinese assets may undergo a systematic revaluation comparable to that in 2007 [21]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 2005 - 2007 Double - Bull Market Characteristics - **Stock Market Evolution Path**: In June 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a historical low of 998 points. Then, catalyzed by the split - share structure reform policy, it rebounded to 1,300 points and entered a six - month sideways oscillation period. Starting in 2006, driven by over - heated economy and excessive liquidity, the index started an epic rally, reaching a historical peak of 6,124 points in October 2007, with a cumulative increase of 513.6% [5]. - **Commodity Leading Start**: The commodity market started half a year earlier than the stock market. In the summer of 2006, against the backdrop of accelerated global industrialization (especially high infrastructure and real - estate investment in China) and a weakening US dollar, the prices of industrial products such as copper, zinc, and crude oil entered a bull market first. During the 2004 - 2006 interest - rate hike cycle, the price of copper increased by 144.3%, crude oil by 105.6%, and the precious metal gold by 39.1% [5]. - **Core Driving Logic**: This market was essentially driven by both "fundamentals + liquidity". The split - share structure reform removed institutional constraints, high - speed economic growth boosted corporate profits, and a surge in trade surplus and RMB appreciation expectations led to excessive liquidity, jointly driving up asset prices [8]. Similarities and Differences between the Current Market and the 2005 - 2007 Cycle Similarities - **Policy - Driven Starting Point**: Both bull markets started with major institutional reforms. In 2005, the split - share structure reform solved the problem of non - tradable shares. The current round focuses on the "anti - involution" policy, targeting over - capacity and low - price competition to promote supply - side clearance [12]. - **Sideways Accumulation Phase**: The stock market experienced a long - term oscillation after the initial policy stimulus. In 2005, it traded sideways at 1,300 points for half a year. In the current round, after the policy bottom was established in September 2024, it traded sideways for about eight months until the commodity bull market spread to the cyclical sectors of the stock market in June 2025 [12]. - **Commodities Leading the Stock Market**: Commodities reacted earlier than the stock market. In 2006, the commodity market started half a year earlier than the stock market. Since June 2025, ultra - oversold commodities such as coking coal, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have rebounded significantly, with a much faster increase rate than the stock market [12]. Differences - **Policy Focus Shift**: In 2005, the focus was on demand stimulation (real - estate marketization + export tax rebates). The current round focuses on supply optimization (a unified national market + elimination of backward production capacity), and the covered industries have expanded from traditional steel and coal to emerging fields such as photovoltaics and lithium - ion batteries [13]. - **Economic Structure Transformation**: In 2005, the economy relied on investment and exports. Currently, it needs to rely on manufacturing upgrading and consumption recovery under the downward pressure of the real - estate market [14]. Policy Analysis - **2005 Reform**: The split - share structure reform in 2005 solved the historical problem of non - tradable shares, achieved a fully tradable market, and attracted large - scale entry of foreign and domestic funds, laying a liquidity foundation for the bull market. Meanwhile, "monetization of shantytown renovation" digested real - estate inventory, and infrastructure investment grew at an average annual rate of over 20%, directly boosting the demand for commodities such as steel and non - ferrous metals [17]. - **2024 - 2025 "Anti - Involution"**: The policy core from 2024 to 2025 has shifted to solving "involution - type over - capacity". Its framework has evolved from a concept to a systematic governance approach. The deep - seated logic is to break the vicious cycle of "increasing volume without increasing revenue". In July 2024, the Political Bureau meeting first proposed preventing "involution - type vicious competition", focusing on industry self - discipline. In July 2025, the meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission upgraded it to "legally governing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity", targeting local protectionism and the bundling of investment - promotion interests, which has a significant impact on both traditional industries led by steel and cement and emerging industries led by photovoltaics and new - energy vehicles [18]. Commodity - to - Stock Market Conduction Logic - **2006 - 2007**: Commodities started first in 2006. Driven by the resonance of China's accelerated industrialization and the global inventory - replenishment cycle, the supply and demand of metals such as copper and aluminum and crude oil tightened. The price of copper rose from $2,980 to $7,280 (a 144.3% increase), and crude oil rose from $35.76 to $73.52 (a 105.6% increase). The stock market reacted later in 2007. The rise in commodity prices boosted corporate profits, with the profit growth rate of resource - related listed companies exceeding 100%, leading to a rally in cyclical stocks. The average increase of the non - ferrous metals sector was 400 - 500%, and coal stocks rose by more than 300%, and the rally spread to other sectors [19]. - **2025 Market**: The current commodity bull market started in June this year, earlier than the overall start of the stock market, but has significantly spread to relevant A - share sectors. Recently, coking coal, coke, soda ash, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, etc. have led the gains. The price of coking coal has rebounded by more than 50% from the bottom, and the price of polysilicon has broken through 50,000 yuan/ton from around 30,000 yuan/ton. The main driving factors include a reversal of policy expectations, industry losses forcing change, and the release of restocking demand. Since June, the cyclical sectors have responded to the rise in commodity prices first, showing a "commodity - mapped" increase [20]. Investment Recommendations - Build long - term positions in long - cycle scarce commodities such as copper, aluminum, and silver and hold them for the long term. - Build long - term positions in stock - index futures or other stock - related assets and hold them across years for the long term [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On July 22, 2025, the domestic commodity futures market witnessed a significant event as the main contracts of glass, soda ash, and coking coal reached their daily limit up, attracting extensive market attention. In the short - term, these varieties may maintain their strength [3]. - The A - share market's three major indices opened higher and closed with a mid -阳线. The coal market was further stimulated by the "anti - involution" in the coal industry, and the main uptrend of the market continued to move upwards in a volatile manner [7][8]. - Although gold has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Currently, it has adjusted to an important support level, and it is advisable to buy on dips [11][12]. - Iron ore has reached a new high, and the uptrend continues due to an improved macro - environment, increased risk appetite, high molten iron production, and a positive feedback repair in the industrial chain [15][16]. - Glass has seen continuous rallies, with its recent trend driven by news and sentiment. The supply side has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly [19][20]. - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, which is beneficial for the early performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hotspot Focus - Glass: Last week, the weekly domestic production increased slightly, inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks, the profit of different production processes is being repaired, the spot sales rate in mainstream areas reached 100% or more, and the average price rose by 10 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton [3]. - Soda ash: The inventory is at a historical high, and the fundamental situation is poor. This increase is mainly driven by glass and short - covering [3]. - Coking coal: Supply is affected by mine accidents and policy regulations. When supply shortages coincide with increased demand from the downstream steel industry, prices tend to rise. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of a ten - industry stable growth plan has boosted market sentiment and attracted a large amount of capital, driving prices to the daily limit [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The coal "anti - involution" has further stimulated the market, and the main uptrend of the market continues to move upwards in a volatile manner [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it is currently at an important support level, suitable for buying on dips [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Technically, it reached a new high today, and the uptrend continues. The improved macro - environment, increased risk appetite, high molten iron production, and positive feedback repair in the industrial chain support the upward movement [15][16]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply side has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment, and the continuous rallies indicate a continuation of the uptrend [19][20]. Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, which is beneficial for the early performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon futures price has changed from rising to high - level oscillation. It's too hasty to judge that the price has reached the top just based on a single - day decline. If the "anti - involution" policy is effectively implemented and the supply - demand relationship is further improved, the price still has support [4]. - The main - rising wave market of the hydropower project - related sectors continues to oscillate upwards [7]. - The general trend of gold is still bullish. It has adjusted to an important support level, and it's advisable to buy on dips [11][12]. - The iron ore futures are in a continued uptrend as the macro - environment improves and the industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state [15][16]. - The glass futures are in a continued uptrend, and the recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment [19]. - The US new renewable fuel policy may help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures, but weak exports may limit the upside [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polysilicon Futures - The polysilicon futures price had a cumulative increase of over 50% in the recent 16 trading days, and the main contract rose 7.49% on the 17th, hitting a record high. However, it fell 0.9% at the mid - day close on the 18th [4]. - Technically, the current deviation rate is large, the price is far from the moving average, and the KDJ indicator shows a death cross at a high level, which is usually a signal of a possible price correction [4]. Hydropower Project - Related Sectors - The hydropower project is officially started, and related sectors have risen across the board. The main - rising wave market continues to oscillate upwards [7]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, leading to an adjustment in the gold price. But the general upward trend remains unchanged [12]. - Gold has adjusted to an important support level, and it's advisable to buy on dips [11]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains at a high level with decent steel - mill profits. The industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state [16]. - Technically, the iron ore futures hit a new high today, and the uptrend continues [15]. Glass - There is no significant change in the fundamentals. The supply side has not seen a major loss - induced cold - repair situation, the factory inventory is marginally decreasing, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong [20]. - Technically, the glass futures hit a new high today, and the uptrend continues. The recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment [19]. Palm Oil - The US new renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, pushing up the Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it may help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [23]. - Weak exports of Malaysian palm oil may limit the upside [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The polysilicon futures price turned from rising to falling on July 18, but it's too hasty to judge the price has reached the top. If the "anti - involution" policy is effectively implemented, the price still has support, and it should be treated as high - level oscillation [3][4]. - The A - share market is moderately positive with various consumption - stimulating policies, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate upwards at a high level [7][8]. - Gold has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, but the long - term upward trend remains, and it can be bought at low when it reaches an important support level [11][12]. - Iron ore's short - term trend is upward despite today's high - level decline, and a bullish mindset should be maintained [16][17]. - Glass's fundamentals haven't changed significantly, and its trend is driven by news and sentiment. The bullish trend continues [19][20]. - Methanol's port inventory is accumulating, downstream demand is weak, and it should be short - sold with a light position [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polysilicon Futures - The polysilicon futures price had a cumulative increase of over 50% in the past 16 trading days, with the main contract rising 7.49% on the 17th, reaching a record high of 45,700 yuan/ton. But it fell 0.9% at the mid - day close on the 18th, closing at 43,620 yuan/ton. Technically, there are signs of a possible price correction, but the price may still be supported by policy and supply - demand improvements [4]. A - share Market - A - share's three major indexes opened higher, fell during the session, and then rebounded strongly at the end. With the frequent introduction of consumption - stimulating policies, it is moderately positive for A - shares, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate upwards at a high level [7][8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it can be bought at low when it reaches an important support level [11][12]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - making water output remains high. Although the price rose and then fell today, the upward trend remains unchanged, and a bullish mindset should be maintained [16][17]. Glass - The supply side of glass has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs, the factory inventory has decreased marginally, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power. The fundamentals haven't changed significantly, and the trend is driven by news and sentiment. The bullish trend continues [19][20]. Methanol - This week, the unloading of foreign vessels was smooth, and the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream demand remained weak, especially in Jiangsu where the inventory increased significantly. It should be short - sold with a light position [22].

Report Overview - Report Name: Goldtrust Futures Daily Report - Date: July 18, 2025 - Author: Goldtrust Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The glass market is experiencing a fierce short - term tug - of war between bulls and bears. If the price stabilizes at a key support level, one can consider going long; otherwise, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to have a high - level volatile upward trend [7]. - The long - term outlook for gold remains positive. Currently, after adjusting to an important support level, one can buy on dips [11]. - The iron ore market maintains a bullish technical trend, and the positive feedback in the industrial chain continues [15]. - The glass market continues to follow a bullish technical trend, although the fundamentals have not changed significantly [19]. - For methanol, due to the continuous accumulation of port inventory, a short - position strategy with a small position is recommended [23]. Summary by Category Glass - Fundamentals: Real estate demand is weak, and although there is support from photovoltaic demand, it cannot fully offset the drag from the real estate sector. Glass social inventory has increased year - on - year, resulting in significant supply pressure. However, the cold - repair of production lines such as those of Jinjing Technology has reduced the daily melting volume, providing marginal support to supply and potentially limiting price declines [3]. - Industry News: On July 16, a kiln production line in Anhui with a designed capacity of 750 tons per day entered cold - repair, and the cold - repair speed of the top 10 photovoltaic glass production lines has accelerated. The supply has further decreased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, which is beneficial for the subsequent glass prices [3]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term correction of the glass futures main contract does not change the medium - term upward trend. If it stabilizes around 1050 yuan, one can try to go long with a small position. The bearish forces in the glass market are concentrated, but the net short positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract are showing a decreasing trend, indicating intensified market divergence [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market Trend: The A - share market opened lower and closed higher, with the ChiNext performing the strongest. The market is expected to have a high - level volatile upward trend [7][8]. Gold - Market News: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut within the year, leading to an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [12]. - Technical Analysis: After adjusting to an important support level, one can buy on dips [11]. Iron Ore - Macro Environment: The macro environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the high pig iron output due to decent steel mill profits has maintained a positive feedback in the industrial chain [16]. - Technical Analysis: The price continued to rise today, and the bullish view persists [15]. Methanol - Inventory Data: As of July 9, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 71.89 million tons, an increase of 4.52 million tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 6.10 million tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.58 million tons. The port inventory has continued to accumulate this week, and a short - position strategy with a small position is recommended [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: Although the short - term glass market has intense long - short competition, considering the marginal support of supply reduction and the unchanged medium - term upward trend of the futures main contract, if the price stabilizes at the key support level, one can try to go long; otherwise, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Stock Index Futures: It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level during the delivery week [7]. - Gold: Despite the adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of rate cuts this year, the general upward trend remains, and it can be bought at a low price when it adjusts to an important support level [11][12]. - Iron Ore: With the improvement of the macro - environment, high iron - water production, and the positive feedback repair of the industrial chain, it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [15][16]. - Methanol: As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports has increased, so it should be shorted with a light position [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Glass - Fundamental: Real estate demand is weak, and although there is support from photovoltaic demand, it cannot fully offset the drag from the real estate sector. The social inventory of glass has increased year - on - year, resulting in significant supply pressure. However, the cold repair of production lines such as Jinjing Technology has reduced the daily melting volume, providing marginal support for supply and potentially limiting price declines [3]. - Industrial News: On July 16, a kiln production line in Anhui with a designed capacity of 750 tons per day entered cold repair, and the cold - repair speed of the top 10 photovoltaic glass production lines has accelerated. The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, which is beneficial for glass enterprises to reduce inventory and subsequent glass prices [3]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term correction of the glass futures main contract does not change the medium - term upward trend. If it stabilizes around 1050 yuan, one can try to go long with a light position. The short - selling power of glass is concentrated, but the net short positions of the top 20 seats of the main contract show a decreasing trend, and market divergence has intensified [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures This week is the delivery week of stock index futures. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a correction in gold prices. However, the general upward trend remains, and it can be bought at a low price when it adjusts to an important support level [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore The improvement of the macro - environment has increased risk appetite. With good steel - mill profits, iron - water production remains at a high level, and the industrial chain is in a state of positive feedback repair. Technically, it continued to rise today, so it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [15][16]. Technical Analysis - Glass The supply side has not experienced a major loss - induced cold - repair situation, the factory inventory is still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak. There is no obvious change in the fundamentals, and recent trends are more driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it fluctuated within a narrow range today, and the lower support is effective, so it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [19][20]. Technical Analysis - Methanol As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 71.89 tons, an increase of 4.52 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 6.10 tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.58 tons. The methanol port inventory continued to accumulate this week, and it should be shorted with a light position [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate in the second quarter was 5.2%. The stock index futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [4]. - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to a decrease in the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in the gold market. However, the long - term outlook for gold remains positive, and it is advisable to buy on dips when it reaches an important support level [8][9]. - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron ore market is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it is expected to maintain a strong consolidation at a high level, and a bullish view is recommended [12]. - The glass market is mainly driven by news and sentiment. Although the fundamentals have not changed significantly, the price has support below after a high - level decline today, so a bullish view is taken [14][15]. - As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports has increased. The inventory in East China has increased, while that in South China has decreased. With the continuous accumulation of port inventory, a short - selling strategy with a light position is recommended [18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Technical Analysis of Stock Index Futures - The GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the second quarter. The market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations [4]. 3.2 Technical Analysis of Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in the gold market. But the long - term trend is upward, and it can be bought on dips at important support levels [8][9]. 3.3 Technical Analysis of Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron ore market is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it maintains a strong consolidation at a high level, and a bullish view is appropriate [12]. 3.4 Technical Analysis of Glass - The fundamentals of the glass market have not changed significantly, and it is mainly driven by news and sentiment. After a high - level decline today, there is support below, so a bullish view is recommended [14][15]. 3.5 Technical Analysis of Methanol - As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports is 71.89 tons, an increase of 4.52 tons from the previous period. East China has seen inventory accumulation, while South China has experienced destocking. With continuous inventory accumulation, a short - selling strategy with a light position is suggested [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price rose. Supply tightened due to safety inspections in major production areas, potential closure of the production - capacity replacement window, and the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. Demand increased during the "peak - summer" period. This may raise steel production costs and steel prices, and attract more funds to the coal industry. Investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [3]. - In the stock market, the overall situation is that the Shanghai Composite Index had a good performance with an opening - low and closing - high trend, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index had minor fluctuations. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7][8]. - For gold, although there was an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year, the long - term upward trend remains. It has adjusted to an important support level, and investors can buy on dips [11][12]. - For iron ore, the macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. Technically, it maintained a strong high - level consolidation, so a bullish view is appropriate [16]. - For glass, the supply side has no significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream restocking power is weak. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it pulled up near the end of the session, so a bullish view is appropriate [20]. - For methanol, as of July 9, 2025, China's methanol port inventory increased. The East China region saw inventory accumulation, while the South China region had destocking. With continued inventory accumulation and visible foreign - vessel unloading, a short - selling strategy with a light position is advisable [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. It is expected that annual production will be reduced by 1.2 billion tons. The Mineral Resources Law implemented on July 1 raised the coal - mine production - capacity threshold, causing 30% of small coal mines to face exit, such as the suspension of 12 million tons of production capacity in Shanxi. The supply of high - quality coking coal tightened, and the spot price rose by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Demand: During the "peak - summer" period, the daily consumption of power plants exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry's operating rate reached 82% (a new high this year), the daily iron - water output rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking - plant operating rate was 73%. Steel mills' passive restocking boosted short - term demand [3]. Stock Market - The Shanghai Composite Index had an opening - low and closing - high trend, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index had minor fluctuations. Customs data showed that China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.9% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7][8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in gold prices. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it has adjusted to an important support level, so investors can buy on dips [11][12]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and steel mills' profits are acceptable, resulting in high iron - water output. The industrial chain is in a positive - feedback repair state. Technically, it maintained a strong high - level consolidation, so a bullish view is appropriate [16]. Glass - The supply side has no significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream restocking power is weak. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it pulled up near the end of the session, so a bullish view is appropriate [20]. Methanol - As of July 9, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 718,900 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous period. The East China region saw an inventory increase of 61,000 tons, while the South China region had a decrease of 15,800 tons. With continued inventory accumulation and visible foreign - vessel unloading of 177,200 tons, a short - selling strategy with a light position is advisable [22].