Group 1: Report Core View - The soda ash futures have the potential to continue to be long due to supply reduction expectations, optimistic demand outlook, cost support, and policy speculation potential [3] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures Analysis - Supply: The current weekly production of the soda ash industry is maintained at a high level of 730,000 tons, with an operating rate as high as 87.13%. However, the new environmental protection policy in Qinghai will lead to production reduction expectations as Qinghai's capacity accounts for about 14.9% of the national capacity [3] - Demand: Although the float glass capacity is limited by the weak real - estate completion and new construction data, and the photovoltaic glass is in a loss situation, with the economic recovery, there is an optimistic expectation for future demand. The export volume of soda ash in the first half of 2025 increased significantly year - on - year, providing support to the market [3] - Cost: The prices of upstream raw materials such as coking coal have risen, and since fuel and raw materials account for a relatively high proportion in the cost of soda ash, it provides support to the soda ash futures price [3] Group 3: Other Futures Technical Analysis Stock Index Futures - The short - term market will enter a high - level shock stage [5] Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of a rate cut in September has increased, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range shock [8] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are strongly supported as the molten iron output remains at a high level due to the improvement in steel mill profitability. The black industry chain is in a relatively healthy state under the call for anti - involution. Technically, it has a small fluctuation today and should be treated as a high - level wide - range shock recently [11][12] Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement and strengthening of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [15][16] Alumina - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - On August 14, 2025, the palm oil futures price dropped, with a closing price of 9368 yuan and a decline of 1.04%. If supply continues to increase and demand fails to improve effectively, the palm oil futures price may face continued pressure [3]. - For stock index futures, due to the high - level bearish candlestick, the short - term market will enter a high - level consolidation phase [6]. - The July non - farm payroll data in the US was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range consolidation [10]. - For iron ore, the overall fundamentals are strongly supported, and it shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, it closed with a large bearish candlestick today and should be treated as a high - level wide - range consolidation [14][15]. - For glass, the supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the main driving force for the recent market is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [18][19]. - For alumina, it has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil Futures - On August 14, 2025, the palm oil futures closed at 9368 yuan, down 1.04%. The reasons for the decline are complex. On the supply side, Malaysia is in a seasonal production - increasing cycle, and Reuters expects the July inventory to reach a nearly two - year high, with the production - increasing expectation still in place in August. Indonesia's biodiesel and export policy adjustments bring uncertainty to international supply. On the demand side, domestic terminal consumption is weak, the spot basis in Chinese ports is continuously weakening despite low inventory, EU imports are down year - on - year, and India's high imports in June cannot change the overall weak demand. In addition, the weak price of soybean oil intensifies competition from substitutes, and technically, the daily line is near the over - bought area, with insufficient short - term upward momentum [3]. Stock Index Futures - Multiple institutions interpreted policies such as fiscal subsidies for personal consumer loans, and the National Data Bureau stated that China's total computing power ranks second in the world. Due to the high - level bearish candlestick, the short - term market will enter a high - level consolidation phase. Today, the three major A - share indices rose first and then fell, and the Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3700 points, ending an 8 - day winning streak with a small bullish candlestick with an upper shadow [6][7]. Gold - The July non - farm payroll data in the US was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range consolidation [10]. Iron Ore - With the improvement of steel mills' profitability, the molten iron output remains at a high level, and the overall fundamentals are strongly supported. In addition, the anti - involution sentiment in the black industry chain has led to a relatively healthy state, showing a resonance upward trend. Technically, it closed with a large bearish candlestick today and should be treated as a high - level wide - range consolidation [14][15]. Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [18][19]. Alumina - As a "mineral with stories", alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [22].

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Report" - Report Date: August 14, 2025 - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - The subsequent trend of silver futures is expected to be volatile and bullish [3]. - The "Personal Consumption Loan Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy Implementation Plan" brings policy benefits to promote consumption in the financial sector, which continues to be positive for A-shares [7]. - The weaker-than-expected July non-farm payroll data, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a rate cut in September, which is positive for gold [11]. - The iron ore market has strong fundamental support, and after a small adjustment, it can still consider a low-buying strategy [15]. - The glass market has a slight improvement in supply and demand, and with the improvement of the macro - environment, a low - buying strategy can be maintained [19]. - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silver - Fundamentals: The global silver market has been in short supply for many years, and this pattern is expected to continue in 2025. Strong industrial demand from photovoltaics and new energy provides strong support for silver prices [4]. - Macro - level: The expectation of loose global monetary policy is increasing, the US dollar index may weaken in the medium term, inflation expectations are rising, and the de - dollarization trend may lead central banks to include silver in reserve assets, all of which are positive for silver [4]. - Technical analysis: After the London silver price breaks through the key position, there is no obvious resistance above. Institutions are generally bullish on silver, expecting the international silver price to fluctuate mainly between $45 - 49 per ounce in the second half of the year, and the Shanghai silver futures may reach 10,000 - 11,000 per kilogram [4]. A - shares (Stock Index Futures) - News: The "Personal Consumption Loan Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy Implementation Plan" is positive for A - shares. The three major A - share indexes showed a pattern of rising after a morning pull - back, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid - yang line, achieving 8 consecutive positive days [7][8]. - Operation: Continue to maintain a low - buying strategy [7]. Gold - News: The weaker - than - expected July non - farm payroll data and the downward revision of May and June data increase the probability of a September rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range shock [11]. Iron Ore - Fundamentals: Steel mills' profits have improved, and iron water production remains at a high level, with strong fundamental support. The anti - involution in the black industry chain and the continuous news of black production restrictions have boosted market sentiment [15][16]. - Technical analysis: After a small adjustment today, a low - buying strategy can be considered after stabilization [15]. Glass - Fundamentals: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation [19][20]. - Technical analysis: The lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [19]. Alumina - Fundamentals: Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, and the futures have long maintained high volatility [24]. - News: EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license. - Operation: Maintain a low - buying strategy [24].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views - On August 12, the soda ash futures closed at 1409 yuan, up 71 yuan or 5.31% from the previous day, with the highest reaching 1429 yuan. The rise was driven by macro - policies and cost factors. However, there are many uncertainties in the future trend. If there is no substantial positive support, the price may fall to the cost line [3]. - The three major A - share indices had a volatile day, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a mid - yang line for 7 consecutive days. The suspension of 24% tariffs between China and the US for 90 days is positive for A - shares, and the operation strategy is to go long on dips [6]. - The lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data and the downward revision of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation [10]. - The iron ore market has a strong fundamental support due to high molten iron production and optimistic market sentiment. Technically, it rebounded significantly, and the strategy is to go long on dips [14][15]. - The glass market has a slightly improved supply - demand situation, mainly driven by the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, with effective support below, the strategy is to go long on dips [18][19]. - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's revocation of GAC's mining license, the strategy is to go long on dips [22]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures - Price: Closed at 1409 yuan on August 12, up 71 yuan or 5.31%, with the highest reaching 1429 yuan [3]. - Driving factors: Macro - policies and cost factors, including relevant policies from the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission and rising coal prices [3]. - Future trend: Uncertainties exist. High inventory and potential cost reduction may lead to price decline [3]. A - share Index - Market performance: The three major A - share indices had a volatile day, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid - yang line for 7 consecutive days [6]. - News: The suspension of 24% tariffs between China and the US for 90 days is positive for A - shares [6]. - Operation strategy: Go long on dips [6]. Gold - Influencing factors: Lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data and downward revision of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold [10]. - Market condition: The weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation [10]. Iron Ore - Fundamental support: High molten iron production due to improved steel mill profitability and optimistic market sentiment from black - limit production news [14][15]. - Technical analysis: A significant rebound, and the strategy is to go long on dips [14]. Glass - Supply - demand situation: Slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [19]. - Driving factors: The improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation [19]. - Technical analysis: With effective support below, the strategy is to go long on dips [18]. Alumina - Market characteristics: Continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility [22]. - Event: EGA condemned Guinea's revocation of GAC's mining license [22]. - Operation strategy: Go long on dips [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The suspension of mining at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo mining area may shift the industry's supply - demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong, but it's unlikely to reverse the lithium price trend. The market should be treated with a bullish and volatile view [3][4]. - Beijing's real - estate new policies, lithium mine shutdowns, and strong economic data are all positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [6]. - The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will have a short - term small - range platform shock [10]. - The improvement of steel mill profitability maintains high pig iron production, and the overall fundamentals of iron ore are strongly supported. Technically, it rebounds upwards, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [13][14]. - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and the main driver is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [17][18]. - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - On August 11, the suspension of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo mining area made various market rumors self - defeating. The lithium carbonate futures opened at the daily limit. The market's focus is on Yichun lithium mines. Before the official announcement, the mine had already stopped production and had no short - term resumption plan [3]. - The monthly lithium carbonate supply of the Jianxiawo mining area and its supporting smelter is about 10,000 tons, accounting for about 12.5% of the domestic total. The suspension is related to the implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law in 2025, which has increased concerns about the supply side [4]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - Beijing's real - estate new policies, lithium mine shutdowns, and strong economic data are positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is to fluctuate upwards [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it will have a short - term small - range platform shock [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The improvement of steel mill profitability maintains high pig iron production, and the overall fundamentals are strongly supported. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black - industry chain shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, it rebounds upwards, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driver is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [17][18]. Technical Analysis - Alumina - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [21].

Report Overview - Report Title: Jinxin Futures Daily - Report Date: August 11, 2025 - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Carbonate Lithium**: In the short - term, the price of carbonate lithium may be supported due to the marginal improvement in fundamentals and the potential for further fermentation of mining license and production reduction expectations. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the global lithium resource supply is in an expansion cycle, and it is difficult for the lithium price to reverse the trend, with a view of "possible rebound, not yet a reversal", and it should be treated with a bullish bias in a volatile market [3]. - **A - shares**: 700 billion yuan of reverse repurchases keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant, which continues to be beneficial for A - shares. In the short - term, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards at a high level [6]. - **Gold**: The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of the data for May and June, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will have a small - scale platform shock in the short - term [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the molten iron output remains at a high level, with strong fundamental support. The black industry chain shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, after a small adjustment today, a low - buying strategy should be maintained [14][15]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has declined significantly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The recent market is mainly driven by the improvement and strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy after stabilization should be adopted [18][19]. - **Alumina**: Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy on dips should be maintained [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - In recent days, carbonate lithium futures have risen sharply by over 10%, and the volatility has increased, mainly due to the disturbance of the Jixiawo mining license renewal event. As of August 9, the Jixiawo mining license was due to expire, increasing the market's expectation of production reduction. If the production reduction is implemented, it will directly affect the short - term supply - demand balance. There are many market rumors recently, but there is no official conclusion yet. Before the risk events are settled this week, the market will fluctuate greatly [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - 700 billion yuan of reverse repurchases keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant, which is beneficial for A - shares. In the short - term, the market will continue to fluctuate upwards at a high level [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of the data for May and June, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will have a small - scale platform shock in the short - term [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the molten iron output remains at a high level, with strong fundamental support. The black industry chain shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, after a small adjustment today, a low - buying strategy should be maintained [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has declined significantly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The recent market is mainly driven by the improvement and strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy after stabilization should be adopted [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Alumina - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy on dips should be maintained [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The sharp rise in coking coal 2601 today is due to multiple factors, and investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics, treating it with a bias towards more in a volatile market [3][4]. - The year - on - year increase of 3.5% in China's goods trade imports and exports in the first 7 months is positive for A - shares, and in the short - term, the market will mainly fluctuate upwards at a high level [7]. - The July non - farm payroll data indicates that the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US has increased, which is positive for gold, and currently, it is in a short - term small - range platform oscillation [11]. - The iron ore market has strong fundamental support, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [15][16]. - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and the main driver is the improvement of the macro - environment. A low - buying strategy after stabilization is recommended [19][20]. - Alumina has high volatility, and a low - buying strategy on dips should be maintained [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. The resumption of production in some coal mines in Shanxi Lvliang is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures [4]. - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with a comprehensive profitability rate of nearly 60%. High daily hot metal production supports the demand for coking coal, and the replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up prices [4]. - Policy: The implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law", the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up coking coal prices [4]. - Outlook: If the over - production verification of coal mines is strictly implemented, the supply is expected to continue to shrink, and if demand remains the same, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or the hot metal production of steel mills peaks and falls, the upward trend will be under pressure [4]. 3.2 A - shares - Market performance: The three major A - share indexes opened higher in the morning, then冲高回落, and the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded in the afternoon and closed with a red doji [8]. - Driving factor: The year - on - year increase of 3.5% in China's goods trade imports and exports in the first 7 months is positive for A - shares [7]. - Operation strategy: In the short - term, it will mainly fluctuate upwards at a high level [7]. 3.3 Gold - Driving factor: The July non - farm payroll data is significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, and the probability of a September interest rate cut has increased, which is positive for gold [11]. - Market condition: The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range platform oscillation [11]. 3.4 Iron Ore - Fundamental support: The improvement of steel mill profitability has maintained a high level of hot metal production, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the state of the black industrial chain is relatively healthy, showing a resonance upward trend [15][16]. - Operation strategy: Maintain a low - buying strategy [15]. 3.5 Glass - Supply - demand situation: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has declined significantly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [20]. - Driving factor: The main driver is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery [19]. - Operation strategy: The lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy after stabilization is recommended [19]. 3.6 Alumina - Market characteristic: It has high volatility due to continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm [22]. - Event: EGA condemned the Guinea government for revoking the GAC mining license [22]. - Operation strategy: Maintain a low - buying strategy on dips [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise of coking coal 2601 is due to multiple factors, and investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics, treating it with a bullish bias in a volatile market [3][4] - A-share margin trading balance has returned to 2 trillion, and in the short term, it is mainly in a high-level volatile upward trend [7][8] - The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold, and currently, it is in a short - term sideways consolidation [11] - Iron ore has strong fundamental support and is in a co - upward trend. Maintain a low - buying strategy [15][16] - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and when it pulls back to the short - term support level, consider a low - buying strategy after stabilization [19][20] - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. Maintain a low - buying strategy [22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. The resumption of production in some coal mines in Shanxi Lvliang is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures [4] - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with a nearly 60% comprehensive profit rate for steel mills. The daily average pig iron output is at a high level, and the replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up prices [4] - Policy: The implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law", the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up coking coal prices [4] - Outlook: If strict production over - inspection is carried out, the supply is expected to continue to shrink. If demand remains the same, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or pig iron output peaks and falls, the upward trend will be under pressure [4] Stock Index Futures - Market performance: A - share three major indexes opened lower and closed higher, with all closing with mid -阳线. The margin trading balance has returned to 2 trillion after ten years [7][8] - Operation suggestion: In the short term, it is mainly in a high - level volatile upward trend [7] Gold - Fundamental factors: The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data indicate that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold [11] - Technical analysis: Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term sideways consolidation [11] Iron Ore - Fundamental support: Steel mills' profitability has improved, pig iron output remains high, and the overall fundamentals are strongly supportive. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black industrial chain is in a healthy state [15][16] - Technical analysis: There was a slight adjustment today, and maintain a low - buying strategy [15] Glass - Supply - demand situation: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and factory inventories have significantly declined, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [20] - Driving factors: The main driving factor is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery [19] - Operation suggestion: When it pulls back to the short - term support level, consider a low - buying strategy after stabilization [19] Alumina - Characteristics: As a "mineral with stories", it has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, and its futures have high long - term volatility [22] - Event: EGA condemned the Guinean government for revoking the GAC mining license [22] - Operation suggestion: Maintain a low - buying strategy [22]

Report Overview - The report is the daily journal of Goldtrust Futures, dated August 6, 2025, and written by the Goldtrust Futures Research Institute [1] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, if the strict implementation of over - production verification in coal mines continues, and demand remains stable, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to stay strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or steel mill hot metal production peaks and declines, the price increase will face pressure. Investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics and treat it with a bullish bias in a volatile market [3] - For A - shares, with 1.96 million new accounts opened, a year - on - year increase of 70.5%, it is a positive factor. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate upwards at a high level [6] - For gold, the July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of a September interest rate cut has increased, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will make a small - scale sideways movement in the short term [10] - For iron ore, with the improvement of steel mill profitability, hot metal production remains high, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black industry chain is in a healthy state, showing a resonance upward trend. Technically, after three consecutive days of rising, the strategy is to buy on dips [14][15] - For glass, the supply - demand situation has improved slightly with a significant decline in factory inventory, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driver of the recent market is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery. Technically, when it pulls back to the short - term support level, consider buying on stabilization [18][19] - For palm oil, currently in the overseas production area's peak season, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in June, and Reuters survey shows that the inventory may continue to grow in July. The production and inventory pressure in major foreign producing areas still exist, which may limit the upward momentum of the market as time goes on [20] Summary by Directory Hot Focus - Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to underground accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. For example, the resumption of production in some coal mines in Lvliang, Shanxi is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures, leading to a tightening of supply [3] - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with the comprehensive profitability rate of steel mills close to 60%. The daily average hot metal production is at a high level, which strongly supports the demand for coking coal. The replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up the price [3] - Policy: The implementation of the new version of the Mineral Resources Law, the expectation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's anti - involution work plan, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up the coking coal price [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - New accounts opened in the A - share market reached 1.96 million, a year - on - year increase of 70.5%, which is a positive factor. The short - term operation strategy is a high - level upward fluctuation [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will move sideways in the short term [10] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Fundamental: With the improvement of steel mill profitability, hot metal production remains high, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black industry chain is in a healthy state [14][15] - Technical: After three consecutive days of rising, the strategy is to buy on dips [14] Technical Analysis - Glass - Supply - demand: The supply - demand situation has improved slightly, with a significant decline in factory inventory, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [18][19] - Market driver: The main driver is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery. Technically, buy on stabilization when it pulls back to the short - term support level [18][19] Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - Supply: Currently in the overseas production area's peak season, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in June, and it may continue to grow in July. The production and inventory pressure in major foreign producing areas still exist, which may limit the upward momentum of the market [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise of coking coal 2601 futures today is due to multiple factors. If the strict implementation of over - production verification in coal mines continues to shrink supply and demand remains stable, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or steel mill hot metal production peaks and declines, the price increase will face pressure. Investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics and treat it with a bias towards more in a volatile market [3][4]. - Starting from August 8th, the taxation of interest income from treasury bonds and other securities is overall positive for A - shares, and in the short - term, it will mainly show high - level fluctuations [7]. - The significantly lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data, especially the large downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will show small - scale fluctuations in the short - term [11]. - In the context of stable demand and falling port inventories, the iron ore futures price rose slightly on Monday. However, the expected increase in supply restricts the upward trend, and the overall market shows a pattern of more - biased supply - demand game [15][16]. - In the short - term, domestic and foreign orders for glass are average, and the operating rate of downstream component enterprises remains low. With the slowdown of stocking, local transactions are weakening. Overall, local supply and demand have slightly improved, and the price shows an upward trend, but the increase should be treated with a bias towards more in a volatile market [19][20]. - The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak Malaysian palm oil exports may limit the upward momentum of the market [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to underground accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. For example, the resumption of production in some coal mines in Lvliang, Shanxi is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures, leading to tightened supply [4]. - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with the comprehensive profitability rate of steel mills close to 60%, and the daily average hot metal output is at a high level, which strongly supports the demand for coking coal. The replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up the price [4]. - Policy: The implementation of the new version of the Mineral Resources Law, the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations also drive up the price of coking coal [4]. A - shares - Policy impact: Starting from August 8th, the taxation of interest income from treasury bonds and other securities is overall positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is high - level fluctuations [7]. Gold - Economic data impact: The significantly lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data, especially the large downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it shows small - scale fluctuations in the short - term [11]. Iron Ore - Market situation: In the context of stable demand and falling port inventories, the iron ore futures price rose slightly on Monday. However, the expected increase in supply restricts the upward trend, and the overall market shows a pattern of more - biased supply - demand game [15][16]. Glass - Short - term situation: Domestic and foreign orders are average, and the operating rate of downstream component enterprises remains low. With the slowdown of stocking, local transactions are weakening. Overall, local supply and demand have slightly improved, and the price shows an upward trend, but the increase should be treated with a bias towards more in a volatile market [19][20]. Palm Oil - Positive factors: The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [23]. - Negative factors: Weak Malaysian palm oil exports may limit the upward momentum of the market [23].