金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 2 2 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 氧化铝大涨分析及后市展望 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年5月21日氧化铝大涨，主要源于几内亚矿端扰动。几内亚是全球第一大铝土矿生产国、我国第 一大铝土矿进口国 ，当地时间5月16日上午，几内亚矿业局对Axis矿区下达停工指令，该矿区涉及 产能约4000万吨/年，2024年实产2300万吨，目前恢复时间不明。这是继5月15日几内亚政府吊销46 家矿业公司采矿证后，铝土矿供给扰动的进一步升级。 从基本面来看，当前国内氧化铝企业开工率下滑，处于年内低位，检修产能较多，供应压力减弱， 现货货源收紧，库存出现明显下滑。下游电解铝企业的开工率却保持在97%的高位，且季节性特征 显示，电解铝的高开工会持续到9月份。 短期来看，铝土矿扰动叠加供给端收缩，氧化铝市场情绪回暖，有利于价格反弹修复。 但从中期视角， ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 2 1 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 纯碱价格创新低，市场寒意几何？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年5月20日，纯碱价格再创新低，这一现象引发市场广泛关注。纯碱作为重要化工原料，其价格 波动牵扯众多行业神经。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从供应端来看，近年来纯碱产能持续扩张，2023 - 2024年新增产能不断投放，2025年计划新增产能 也相当可观 ，高开工率让市场供应始终维持高位。而在需求端，浮法玻璃受地产竣工低迷影响，需 求大幅萎缩；光伏玻璃需求增长也开始放缓，其他需求增量有限。供需严重失衡，使得纯碱价格承 压下行。 成本方面，煤炭、原盐等主要原材料价格下降，降低了生产成本，给予生产商降价空间。宏观经济 增长放缓，工业生产活动减弱，对纯碱需求减少，国际市场供需格局与贸易政策变化，也冲击着国 内纯碱价格。 对于相关企业，生产企业利润被压缩，面临较大经营压 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 2 0 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 氧化铝涨停与后市分析 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年5月19日氧化铝涨停，主要是几内亚铝土矿供应风险发酵所致。几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿 许可，Axis矿区被下达停工指令，涉及产能约4000万吨/年，恢复时间不明，引发市场对铝土矿供应 短缺的担忧。 从基本面来看，国内氧化铝开工率下调，贵州、广西地区新增集中检修，山东也有少量检修 。电解 铝方面，虽有部分地区复产，但水电表现不佳，复产低于预期。 短期内，氧化铝价格或因供应端减产检修和矿端消息炒作继续上行。但从中期视角，1-3月国内铝土 矿进口4707万吨，自几内亚进口3639万吨。目前港口库存回升至2458万吨，超过过去2年的同期水平。 结合目前海漂库存仍有1483万吨，处于近4年高位，短中期矿石供给无虞。铝材在中美关税下出口承 压，下游电解铝维持刚需采购，一旦氧化铝产能回归，供需过剩格局可能重现，压制价格。 投资者需密切关注几内亚矿端动态、新增产能进度以及矿价波动。操作上，短期追涨需谨慎； 中长线而言，可待价格稳定后 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 16, 2025, the glass futures price hit a new low, with a decline of over 2% and a minimum of 1002 yuan/ton, and a trading volume of 1.6316 million. Multiple factors contributed to this, and the price may remain weak in the short - term and depend on various factors in the long - term [3]. - A - shares had a full - line decline after continuous upward oscillations, and there is a high probability of entering an adjustment and oscillation phase. Foreign investors are optimistic about the overweight opportunities of Chinese assets [6]. - Gold is in an adjustment phase, but the general direction is still bullish, and the most important support is the low point after Tomb - Sweeping Festival [11]. - Iron ore faces supply surplus pressure in May due to export reduction and shipping increase, and the weak reality increases the high - valuation risk. Technically, it should be viewed with a bearish and oscillating mindset [14]. - The glass futures market requires the manifestation of real - estate stimulus effects or major policy announcements for demand to increase. Technically, it should be viewed bearishly [17]. - PTA has fundamental pressure to break through the resistance level due to low PX device operating rates and weak downstream polyester demand, and shows signs of reaching a phased peak [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus - On May 16, 2025, the glass futures price hit a new low. Supply has a potential contraction trend, but inventory is at a near - three - year high. Demand is weak, raw material costs have decreased, and macro - policies have not effectively supported the demand side. In the short - term, the price may remain weak, and in the long - term, it depends on multiple factors [3]. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares declined after continuous upward oscillations, and there is a high probability of entering an adjustment and oscillation phase. Foreign investors are optimistic about the overweight opportunities of Chinese assets [6]. - **Gold**: It is in an adjustment phase, but the general direction is still bullish, and the most important support is the low point after Tomb - Sweeping Festival [11]. - **Iron Ore**: In May, there is supply surplus pressure due to export reduction and shipping increase, and the weak reality increases the high - valuation risk. Technically, it should be viewed with a bearish and oscillating mindset [14]. - **Glass**: Demand needs real - estate stimulus or major policies to increase. Technically, it should be viewed bearishly [17]. - **PTA**: It has fundamental pressure to break through the resistance level due to low PX device operating rates and weak downstream polyester demand, and shows signs of reaching a phased peak [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 15, the alumina futures market showed strong performance, with significant gains in the main contract. The short - term futures price may remain strong, expected to continue box - type fluctuations. A - shares fell across the board after continuous upward oscillations. Gold continued to weaken but the long - term trend is still bullish. Iron ore has high - valuation risks but short - term is in a bullish oscillation. The glass market continues to oscillate. PTA shows signs of peaking in the short - term [3][4][6][11][14][17][21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - On May 15, the alumina futures main contract had significant gains. The rise was driven by supply tightening (more maintenance and production cuts in alumina enterprises, declining operating capacity, low production, and no new capacity in the short - term) and increased demand (more inquiries in the spot market, rising procurement willingness of aluminum plants). Although the current supply surplus is hard to disprove, short - term supply tightening and stable demand support the price. However, the restored profit may ease the supply - side production - cut sentiment, and cost reduction has potential negative impacts on prices. It is recommended for investors to operate in the short - term and be cautious when chasing high prices [3][4] A - shares - After continuous upward oscillations, A - shares fell across the board on this day, and technically, there is a high probability of entering an adjustment and oscillation phase [6] Gold - Gold further weakened and hit a new low during the session, weaker than expected. But this is still part of the adjustment, and the long - term trend remains bullish. The most important support is the low point after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and short - term repair requires time [11][10] Iron Ore - In May, downstream export reduction and increased shipments lead to large supply - surplus pressure, and domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season, increasing the high - valuation risk of iron ore. Affected by the positive news of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, market sentiment has improved. Technically, it was in high - level consolidation today, and a short - term bullish oscillation mindset is maintained [14] Glass - The continuous increase in demand depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Affected by the positive news of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, risk appetite has increased. Technically, it had a narrow - range operation today, and the oscillation mindset is maintained. Currently, the daily melting volume is at a low level. Although spot production and sales have improved, factory inventories are still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak [17][18] PTA - Fundamentally, the operating rate of PX plants remains low, and major factories like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong plan to conduct maintenance in May, resulting in tight spot circulation. Meanwhile, the poor demand in the downstream polyester industry suppresses the PTA futures price, creating fundamental pressure for it to break through the resistance level. Technically, it shows signs of peaking in the short - term [21]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 1 5 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA与PX大涨，是否到了压力区？ PTA期货 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从技术角度来看，有观点认为4800在日线周期是上轨压力，5月14日PTA期货主力合约最高达到4920 元/吨，突破了4800元/吨这一压力位。但仅从这一点不能完全判定就进入了压力区，还需观察后续 能否站稳。从基本面看，PX装置开工率维持低位，5月浙石化、盛虹等大厂计划检修，现货流通偏紧， 同时下游聚酯行业需求较差，对PTA期货价格形压制，使得其突破压力位具有一定的基本面压力。 PX期货 5月14日PX期货涨幅明显。从成本角度看，国际油价上涨带动其原料成本上升，同时下游PTA装置投 产预期增加需求，推动PX期货价格上涨。目前没有明确的公开信息表明PX期货涨到了压力区，但由 于P ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Goldtrust Futures Daily, written by the Goldtrust Futures Research Institute on May 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Caustic Soda Market - From May 5th to 12th, 2025, the caustic soda price rose from 807 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 829 yuan/ton at the weekend, a significant increase of 2.73% and 4.94% compared to the same period last year [3] - The price increase is due to supply - demand factors (supply decreased due to enterprise maintenance, and demand was stable as downstream aluminum plants had high profits and high - load production) and macro factors (US tariff adjustments after the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks) [3][4] Group 3: Stock Index Futures - A50 rose sharply and the Hong Kong stock market soared. Technically, it remains strongly bullish in the short - term, and the trend continuation is favorable [7] - On Monday, the three major A - share indexes rose significantly due to the expected benefits of Sino - US negotiations, and the post - market joint statement of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks was positive [8] Group 4: Gold Market - Affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiations, gold adjusted further. The outer - market gold neared the low point, and Shanghai gold broke below the pre - holiday low. However, the overall pattern is still oscillatory, and it is expected that the downward adjustment space is limited, with strong support for Shanghai gold between 750 - 760 [10][11] Group 5: Iron Ore Market - In May, there is a large pressure of supply surplus due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season, increasing the risk of high iron ore valuations. But the market sentiment has turned positive due to the Sino - US economic and trade talks. Technically, it strengthened in oscillation today, with a large bullish candle on the daily chart, and the short - term thinking turns to oscillatory and bullish [14] Group 6: Glass Market - The continuous release of demand still awaits the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. The Sino - US economic and trade talks brought significant positive news, changing the market sentiment. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and the short - term thinking turns to oscillatory [17] Group 7: Soybean No.1 Market - The tight supply situation of imported soybeans has been rapidly alleviated, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local - reserve soybeans provides some support for the anti - decline of the soybean No.1 futures market. Profit - taking funds are leaving the market, the position has been continuously decreasing, and technically, it shows signs of a phased peak [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market is in a slump with prices dropping significantly and a weak outlook due to oversupply, cost - side factors, and the macro - economic environment. The technical indicators also show a bearish trend [3]. - The short - term strong characteristics of stock index futures remain obvious, continuing the volatile pattern. A - share indices have a slight adjustment, and the result of Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks is expected this weekend [6][7]. - The medium - to long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. It is currently in a volatile pattern after a short - term technical correction due to the retreat of risk - aversion sentiment and large previous gains [10][11]. - Iron ore faces a large supply surplus pressure in May due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the risk of high valuation is heightened as domestic demand turns to the seasonal off - season. The high - short strategy remains unchanged [14]. - The demand for glass needs the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policies to increase. Technically, it hits a new low and the bearish view remains [17]. - The supply shortage of imported soybeans has been quickly alleviated, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local reserve soybeans provides some support for soybean No.1 futures, but there are signs of a phased peak [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Market - Supply: Soda ash has seen rapid capacity expansion in recent years. New capacities such as Jiangsu Debang and Lianyungang Alkali Industry have entered the market, with continuous release of new capacity in 2025, resulting in abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Demand is weak. Float glass demand has decreased due to the sluggish real - estate market, and the growth of photovoltaic glass has slowed down. The demand increment from other fields like lithium carbonate is small [3]. - Cost: The prices of upstream coal and raw salt have dropped, reducing the costs of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process, and providing support for price decline [3]. - Macro - environment: Uncertainty in economic recovery has led to a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, reduced investor risk preference, and capital outflows from the futures market, pushing down soda ash futures prices [3]. - Technical analysis: MACD green bars are expanding, KDJ shows a death cross, the price has broken through the key psychological level, and short - term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, indicating a bearish market [3]. Stock Index Futures - Technical analysis: The short - term strong characteristics are obvious, and it continues the volatile pattern. A - share indices have a slight adjustment, and the result of Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks is awaited [6][7]. Gold - Long - term trend: The medium - to long - term upward logic remains unchanged. - Short - term situation: After a large increase, it is undergoing a technical correction due to the retreat of risk - aversion sentiment and a large number of profit - taking positions. It is currently in a volatile pattern [10][11]. Iron Ore - Supply - demand: In May, reduced downstream exports and increased shipments lead to a large supply surplus pressure, and domestic demand is turning to the seasonal off - season, increasing the risk of high valuation [14]. - Technical analysis: It had a narrow - range consolidation today, and the high - short strategy remains unchanged [14]. Glass - Demand: Demand needs the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policies to increase. The daily melting volume is low, the spot production and sales have improved slightly, but the factory inventory is still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak [17][18]. - Technical analysis: It hit a new low today, and the bearish view remains [17]. Soybean No.1 - Supply - demand: The supply shortage of imported soybeans has been quickly alleviated, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local reserve soybeans provides some support for soybean No.1 futures [21]. - Technical analysis: Profit - taking funds are reducing positions, and the position has been continuously decreasing, showing signs of a phased peak [21].

Report Overview - Report Date: May 9, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in alumina prices may be due to short - term market sentiment, capital speculation, and supply - side disturbances. Given the overall surplus pattern and the expected loose supply of ore, it is difficult to determine this as a reversal. It is likely a rebound if supply remains loose and demand shows no significant improvement [3][4] - For stock index futures, the short - term trend remains oscillating with a bullish bias, and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks are expected to be released this weekend [7][8] - Gold is in an overall oscillating pattern. The short - term decline is due to the ebb of避险情绪 and technical corrections, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [11][12] - Iron ore faces high supply surplus pressure in May due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the weak reality exacerbates the high - valuation risk. A high - short strategy is maintained [15] - Glass is in a situation where daily melting is low, factory inventories are high, and demand is waiting for real - estate stimulus or major policies. A bearish strategy is maintained [20] - For soybeans, the supply shortage of imported soybeans has quickly eased, and the overall selling pressure in the soybean market has increased. The soybean futures market shows signs of a phased peak [23] Summary by Category Alumina - Fundamental analysis: The alumina market is in a surplus pattern. The previous rebound in the spot market was partly due to restocking in northern electrolytic aluminum production areas. Supply reduction is not significant, and the expected loose supply of ore weakens the logic of supply reduction [3] - Technical analysis: The previous alumina futures showed a BACK structure. Whether the May 8 increase can break the original oscillating pattern remains to be seen. If it fails to continue to rise with increasing volume and break through key pressure levels, it is likely a rebound [3] Stock Index Futures - Technical analysis: The short - term trend is oscillating with a bullish bias, and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks are expected to be released this weekend [7][8] Gold - Technical analysis: The external gold market has adjusted after a significant increase close to the previous high, and Shanghai gold has followed the decline. It is in an overall oscillating pattern. Short - term technical corrections are due to the ebb of避险情绪 and large accumulated gains [11][12] Iron Ore - Fundamental analysis: In May, reduced downstream exports and increased shipments lead to high supply surplus pressure, and the approaching seasonal off - season for domestic demand exacerbates the high - valuation risk [15] - Technical analysis: A large negative line was closed today, and the high - short strategy remains unchanged [15] Glass - Fundamental analysis: The current daily melting is at a low level. Although spot production and sales have improved, factory inventories are still high, and the downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation. Demand growth depends on real - estate stimulus or major policies [20] - Technical analysis: The price hit a new low today, and the bearish strategy remains unchanged [20] Soybeans - Fundamental analysis: The supply shortage of imported soybeans has quickly eased, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local reserve soybeans provides some support for the soybean futures market [23] - Technical analysis: Profitable funds have reduced their positions, and the open interest has continuously declined, showing signs of a phased peak [23]

Group 1: Report Core View - The report analyzes the reasons for the sharp decline of Shanghai Aluminum futures and provides technical analysis of multiple futures including stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, and caustic soda [3][7][11][15][18][23] Group 2: Reasons for the Sharp Decline of Shanghai Aluminum Futures - From the demand side, downstream demand is significantly weak. The procurement willingness of downstream processing enterprises remains low, and the demand growth of industries such as construction and automobile manufacturing for aluminum is slow. The consumption side shows no obvious signs of recovery. In Guangdong, although the supply of electrolytic aluminum remains tight, the demand side is dragged down by the decline in export orders, weakening the support for high prices [3] - In terms of supply, although the futures warehouse receipts continue to decline (recently about 149,000 tons), domestic production capacity is gradually being released, and the market supply is relatively sufficient, offsetting the benefits of inventory reduction [3] - Macroeconomically, international macro disturbances intensify. Weak domestic exports (from January to February, the export of wrought aluminum decreased by 11% year - on - year) suppress import demand, and the widening of the internal - external price difference intensifies the domestic selling pressure. The overall market sentiment is weak, and investors lack confidence in the aluminum price trend, which also promotes the price decline [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - There are gaps in the market, and there are continuous policy benefits. In the short term, it is expected to continue the pattern of fluctuating upward [7] Gold Futures - In the short term, the risk - aversion sentiment recedes, and there are many profit - taking positions due to the large cumulative increase in the early stage, so it faces a technical correction. In the long - term, due to the damage to the US dollar credit, the upward logic remains unchanged. The external gold has risen sharply and is adjusting near the previous high, while Shanghai Gold is relatively weaker but remains in a strong oscillation pattern [11][12] Iron Ore Futures - In May, the reduction in downstream exports and the recovery of shipments lead to a large supply surplus pressure. At the same time, domestic demand is about to turn to the seasonal off - season. The weak reality increases the risk of high valuation of iron ore. Technically, it rose and then fell today, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [15] Glass Futures - The continuous release of demand still depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Technically, it opened high and closed low today, and the short - term thinking of fluctuating downward remains unchanged. Currently, the daily melting is at a low level. Although the spot production and sales have improved, the factory inventory is still at a high level, and the replenishment motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong [18][19] Caustic Soda Futures - The market price is running at a low level, and there are no signs of improvement in downstream demand, especially the continuous production reduction in the alumina industry. However, manufacturers are highly motivated to ship. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [23]