1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the yields of Treasury bond cash bonds weakened collectively, with the 1 - 7Y yields rising by about 1 - 3.75bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields rising by about 3.40 and 3.80bp to 1.83% and 2.11% respectively. Treasury bond futures declined significantly across the board, with the TS, TF, T, and TL leading contracts falling by 0.04%, 0.15%, 0.27%, and 0.86% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 fluctuated around 1.48%. Domestically, in August, China's CPI decreased slightly year - on - year, the core CPI continued to rise, and the year - on - year decline of PPI continued to narrow. The export growth slowed down in August, and exports to the US continued to decline under the influence of high tariffs. In August, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line, the supply and demand improved marginally, the non - manufacturing PMI expanded faster, and the composite PMI remained above the boom - bust line, with overall stable production and business activities. Overseas, the US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000 people in the year to March this year. Combined with the sharp rise in the unemployment rate in August, the market generally priced in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September, providing room for China's overall easing policy. Recently, the bond market has been weak under the influence of market risk preference and the public offering fund fee reform draft for comments, being more sensitive to negative factors and deviating from the fundamental logic in the short term, driven by pessimistic sentiment. Strategically, it is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and make band allocations after stabilization; also, pay attention to the opportunity of expanding term spreads brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Prices and Volumes - T main contract: The closing price was 107.490, down 0.27%, and the trading volume was 95,849, an increase of 26,161 [2] - TF main contract: The closing price was 105.425, down 0.15%, and the trading volume was 64,907, an increase of 11,273 [2] - TS main contract: The closing price was 102.350, down 0.04%, and the trading volume was 31,051, an increase of 3,470 [2] - TL main contract: The closing price was 114.760, down 0.86%, and the trading volume was 169,437, an increase of 36,249 [2] 3.1.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509 spread was - 0.60, down 0.04; T12 - TL12 spread was - 7.27, up 0.67 - T2512 - 2509 spread was - 0.23, up 0.05; TF12 - T12 spread was - 2.07, up 0.14 - TF2512 - 2509 spread was - 0.14, down 0.05; TS12 - T12 spread was - 5.14, up 0.26 - TS2512 - 2509 spread was 0.03, up 0.01; TS12 - TF12 spread was - 3.08, up 0.12 [2] 3.1.3 Futures Positions - T main contract: The open interest was 204,788, an increase of 5,153. The top 20 short positions were 190,291, an increase of 6,293; the top 20 long positions were 194,998, an increase of 6,337; the net short position of the top 20 was 194,998, a decrease of 44 - TF main contract: The open interest was 121,420, an increase of 562. The top 20 long positions were 120,902, a decrease of 1,725; the top 20 short positions were 125,444, a decrease of 2,505; the net short position of the top 20 was 4,542, a decrease of 780 - TS main contract: The open interest was 66,548, an increase of 182. The top 20 long positions were 55,679, a decrease of 208; the top 20 short positions were 58,147, a decrease of 443; the net short position of the top 20 was 2,468, a decrease of 235 - TL main contract: The open interest was 133,236, an increase of 8,947. The top 20 long positions were 118,312, an increase of 6,312; the top 20 short positions were 124,106, an increase of 6,855; the net short position of the top 20 was 5,794, an increase of 543 [2] 3.2 Bond Market 3.2.1 CTD Bonds - The net prices of several CTD bonds declined, such as 220017.IB (6y) at 105.9237, down 0.1905; 220019.IB (6y) at 99.0955, down 0.2378; etc [2] 3.2.2 Active Bonds - The yields of 1 - year and 3 - year active bonds remained unchanged, while the yields of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds increased by 0.75bp, 0.75bp, and 1.10bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates 3.3.1 Short - term Interest Rates - The overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.3882%, up 8.82bp; the Shibor overnight rate was 1.4250%, up 0.60bp; the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5097%, up 5.97bp; the Shibor 7 - day rate was 1.4490%, down 1.80bp; the 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5000%, up 1.00bp; the Shibor 14 - day rate was 1.5010%, up 0.10bp [2] 3.3.2 LPR Rates - The 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 304 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 229.1 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day [2] 3.5 Industry News - In August, the consumer market was generally stable, with the CPI unchanged month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year. The core CPI rose 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the 4th consecutive month. The PPI was unchanged month - on - month, with the year - on - year decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points to 2.9% [2] - The Minister of Finance reported on the budget implementation this year, stating that fiscal policies have been more proactive, and the next step is to make full use of proactive fiscal policies to support employment and foreign trade, cultivate new driving forces for development, improve people's livelihood, prevent and resolve risks, and improve fiscal governance [2] - From March 2024 to March 2025, the US private non - farm employment decreased by 880,000, with employment in trade, transportation, and public utilities, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and government departments all decreasing [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [2][3] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the domestic market, as the new - season corn in the Northeast is approaching the listing period, reserve - rotation corn is continuously released, and traders' confidence to hold prices has weakened. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventories, and market trading is relatively light. However, the early listing of new - season corn in some areas and the slightly higher opening price have a positive impact on market sentiment. The corn futures price rebounded from a low level but has recently declined due to profit - taking by bulls. It is advisable to wait and see [2] - **Corn Starch**: Some enterprises have added maintenance due to insufficient raw - material supply, and the industry is in a loss state with a low operating rate. Although supply pressure is weak and demand has slightly improved, inventory pressure has decreased, but the overall inventory is still high. The market is being squeezed by substitute starches. Affected by the decline in corn prices and its own weak demand, the starch futures price has weakened and is weaker than that of corn [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2197 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2488 yuan/ton. Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 70 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 14 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The futures positions of active contracts for yellow corn and corn starch are 860426 hands and 199400 hands respectively, with a change of - 21204 hands and 6510 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn and corn starch are - 56652 hands and - 45015 hands respectively, with an increase of 2315 hands for corn starch. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn and corn starch are 51959 hands and 9406 hands respectively, with a decrease of 4305 hands for yellow corn [2] Outer Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 419.5 cents/bushel, down 2 cents. CBOT corn total positions (weekly) are 1454514 contracts, down 2187 contracts. The non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are 18485 contracts, down 52455 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2367.45 yuan/ton, and the factory quotes for corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2660 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively. The import cost - included price of imported corn is 1926.58 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 0 dollars/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 150 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the basis of the corn main contract is 170.45 yuan/ton. The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted sowing areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China are 398.93 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, and 295 million hectares respectively; the predicted yields are 35.89 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, and 44.3 million tons respectively. The corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 73.5 million tons, down 3.5 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 271.1 million tons, down 23.1 million tons. The corn inventory in northern ports (weekly) is 156 million tons, down 19 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 15940 tons, up 1440 tons. The monthly output of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons. The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 85 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; in Hebei is - 63 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Jilin is - 136 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) are 27.63 days, down 0.5 days. The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 114.3 million tons, up 0.28 million tons. The alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 46.21%, up 3.34%; the starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 47.14%, down 0.56% [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.69%, up 0.15%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.79%, up 0.14%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for corn is 8.89%, up 0.28% [2] Industry News - As of September 6, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/25 season is 98.3%. On September 9, Ukraine planned to increase the winter grain sowing area in 2026. As of September 7, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 68%, and the market is concerned about the USDA monthly report [2] Key Focus - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday, and the USDA monthly supply - demand report at 0:00 on the 13th [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international rapeseed futures market is affected by factors such as the decline of Chicago soybean oil futures and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic rapeseed - related market is influenced by supply, demand, and trade policies. For rapeseed meal, the reduction in near - month rapeseed arrivals and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand support the market, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. For rapeseed oil, the low - level oil mill operating rate and limited near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure, while weak terminal consumption restricts short - term prices. The market is also affected by Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade negotiations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9770 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2533 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 618.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.1 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 5177 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 289 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 128 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 255147 lots, and that of rapeseed meal is 386706 lots, with a decrease of 7640 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 5394 lots, down 4377 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 5229 lots, down 7582 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 6857 sheets, an increase of 387 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 10383 sheets, a decrease of 960 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9930 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2630 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 9995 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7734.17 yuan/ton, down 102.53 yuan [2] - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 79 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 97 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan [2] - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9270 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1270 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 510 yuan/ton, unchanged; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global production: The predicted annual production of rapeseed is 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Import quantities: The total monthly import quantity of rapeseed is 17.6 tons, a decrease of 0.85 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons, an increase of 4 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 27.03 tons, an increase of 7.56 tons [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 10 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 13.06%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points [2] - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed disk pressing profit is 839 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 9.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.8 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 53.2 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 31.51 tons, an increase of 0.65 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.55 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 21.3 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume is 3.03 tons, an increase of 0.77 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume is 2.74 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, an increase of 41.8 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4504.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 203.5 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.34%, down 0.89 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.35%, down 0.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.75%, an increase of 1.32 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.73%, an increase of 1.32 percentage points [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 27.1%, down 3.99 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.98%, down 0.04 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.35%, down 1.64 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.12%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - On September 9th, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, following the decline of Chicago soybean oil futures, as the rapeseed oil inventory report did not change the supply - demand expectation. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract closed 7.60 Canadian dollars lower, and the January contract closed 6.60 Canadian dollars lower [2] - The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the excellent - good rate is relatively high, resulting in a good crop yield outlook and supply - side pressure. However, the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the market [2] 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - In the international market, the reduction in planting area supports the US soybean price, but the market is uncertain due to the divergence in private institutions' predictions of the USDA report [2] - In the domestic market, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals reduces supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand boosts rapeseed meal demand. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is approaching, and the temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed by China may affect its exports. The Canadian government is considering relaxing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to avoid additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed [2] - In the US, senators are trying to prevent the Trump administration from adjusting renewable fuel obligation policies, which has led to a sharp decline in US soybean oil futures and affected the domestic vegetable oil market [2] - In the domestic market, the terminal consumption boost from the start of school is limited, and the supply - demand of vegetable oil is relatively loose. However, the low operating rate of oil mills and the shortage of near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure [2]

以及降低补栏积极性，关注近期老鸡淘汰情况。盘面来看，在现货价格季节性回升提振下，近日空头获利 平仓，推动期价也低位反弹。但高产能压力仍存，持续对盘面有所牵制。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 鸡蛋产业日报 2025-09-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3019 | -41 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -23789 | -7674 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - EB2510 fluctuated slightly, closing at 7,065 yuan/ton. Supply increased last week, with styrene production up 2.14% to 376,500 tons and capacity utilization up 1.67% to 79.74%. Demand saw mixed changes in downstream operating rates, and consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS decreased 3.41% to 260,900 tons. Styrene factory inventory rose 1.67% to 214,900 tons, while East China port inventory fell 10.18% to 176,500 tons and South China port inventory dropped 20.83% to 19,000 tons. This week, an 800,000 - ton device of Guangdong Petrochemical is planned for maintenance, and the impact of the previously shut - down 320,000 - ton device of Xinpu Petrochemical is expanding, so production and capacity utilization are expected to decline significantly. In September, the impact of maintenance devices is expected to be greater than that of planned production devices, potentially easing supply pressure. Some EPS production - cut devices are resuming, and some PS and ABS devices plan to increase production. Styrene supply - demand is expected to improve, and inventory is expected to decline from high levels. OPEC+ production increase in October is moderate, and the worsening Middle East geopolitical situation provides short - term support for international oil prices. Technically, EB2510 should pay attention to the support near 6,930 and the pressure near 7,200 [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing price (active contract) of styrene: 7,065 yuan/ton, down 3,582 yuan/ton; trading volume: 171,741 hands, down 19,324 hands; open interest: 292,319 hands, down 12,936 hands; the closing price of the November contract: 7,074 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton. The long position of the top 20 holders: 391,005 hands; short position: 415,645 hands, down 4,623 hands; net long position: - 24,640 hands, up 1,041 hands; total warehouse receipts: 1,784 hands, down 543 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot price of styrene: 7,394 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; FOB South Korea intermediate price: 868 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton; CFR China intermediate price: 878 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton. Market prices in Northeast China: 7,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; in South China: 7,255 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in North China: 7,005 yuan/ton; in East China: 7,095 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene: 841 dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price: 841 dollars/ton, unchanged; CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price: 757 dollars/ton, down 1.5 dollars/ton; FD US Gulf price: 457 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton. Spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF): 726.93 dollars/ton, unchanged; in Rotterdam (FOB): 663 dollars/ton, up 11 dollars/ton; in the US Gulf (FOB): 258 cents/gallon, up 3 cents/gallon. Market prices of pure benzene in South China: 5,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China: 5,915 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; in North China: 5,910 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Styrene overall production rate: 79.74%, up 1.67%; national inventory: 214,857 tons, up 3,531 tons; East China main port total inventory: 176,500 tons, down 20,000 tons; East China main port trade inventory: 87,000 tons, down 9,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - EPS production rate: 52.52%, down 5.83%; ABS production rate: 69%, down 1.8%; PS production rate: 61%, up 1.1%; UPR production rate: 33%, down 1%; styrene - butadiene rubber production rate: 67.65%, up 0.61% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From August 29 to September 4, China's styrene factory overall output was 376,500 tons, up 2.14% from the previous period, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 79.74%, up 1.67% month - on - month. The consumption of China's styrene main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 260,900 tons, down 3.41% from the previous week. As of September 4, China's styrene factory sample inventory was 214,900 tons, up 1.67% from the previous cycle [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. The supply in Yunnan is gradually increasing, and the raw material purchase price is firm. The raw material output in Hainan is seasonally increasing, but the factories are not willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, and the purchase price of latex is lowered. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, and the de - stocking rate has increased month - on - month. However, as tire factories become more risk - averse, the de - stocking rate of general trade inventory may narrow month - on - month. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase this week as the production of maintenance enterprises resumes, but the increase in the start - up rate may be limited due to the general shipment of some enterprises and production control plans within the month. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,200 in the short term [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,980 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,715 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,265 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 150,595 lots, down 1,149 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 71,970 lots, up 1,042 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 31,120 lots, up 2,955 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 15,067 lots, down 1,107 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 155,250 tons, down 1,400 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 47,678 tons, up 604 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 690 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 940 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,389 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 654 yuan/ton, up 274 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 61.1 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 58.45 Thai baht/kg, down 0.22 Thai baht. The market reference price of latex of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 211.2 US dollars/ton, down 16.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 14.4 US dollars/ton, down 21.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 67.47%, down 5.3 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 38.88 days, down 0.34 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.85 days, down 0.29 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.75%, up 0.26 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.12%, up 0.26 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.1%, down 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.1%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From September 7th to 13th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southern Thailand and south - western Cambodia, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas was moderate, with a slight increase in the impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in central Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was moderate, with an enhanced impact on tapping. As of September 7th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66%. The bonded area inventory was 72,300 tons, a decline of 1.24%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 1.72%. The warehousing rate of the bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 0.95 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1.79 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouses decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 0.39 percentage points. As of September 4th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a decrease of 4.05 percentage points month - on - month and 12.98 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points month - on - month and 1.12 percentage points year - on - year. During the period, some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - peak and continues to decline, while there is a slight increase in agricultural fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui. Industrial compound fertilizer may reduce short - term replenishment of raw material urea due to previous raw material reserves. Although the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate will gradually recover this week, the overall inventory of urea enterprises mainly increases. Affected by the Indian tender and export policies, urea exports are accelerating. Some enterprises' inventory decreases due to export orders, while others' inventory rises slowly due to insufficient domestic demand. The short - term inventory still has a slight upward trend, and the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1700 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1669 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 - 6768; the main contract's open interest is 283,349 lots, an increase of 15,169 lots; the top 20 net open interest is - 42,479; the exchange warehouse receipts are 8897 sheets, an increase of 54 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1710 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1670 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1670 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 1670 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively. The main contract's basis is 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan. FOB Baltic is 400 dollars/ton (unchanged), and FOB China's main port is 415 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 62.09 million tons, an increase of 2.09 million tons; enterprise inventory is 109.5 million tons, an increase of 0.92 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.1%, a decrease of 4.29 percentage points; the daily output is 182,700 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The export volume is 57 million tons, an increase of 50 million tons; the monthly output is 5,928,680 tons, a decrease of 123,400 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 33.08%, a decrease of 6.14 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 58.98%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5.3133 million tons, an increase of 1.0921 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,300 tons, an increase of 300 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.1327 million tons, an increase of 37,700 tons, a 3.44% increase. As of September 4, the port inventory is 620,900 tons, an increase of 20,900 tons, a 3.48% increase. As of September 3, the production of Chinese urea enterprises has decreased, with the daily output down 10,000 tons, the capacity utilization rate down 4.29 percentage points. Some new units are under maintenance, and 3 enterprises are planned to stop production this week, with 2 - 4 stopped enterprises to resume production [2] 3.6 Tip for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is under overall pressure due to a bearish fundamental situation, but the downward space is limited as the price is at a historically low level. The V2601 is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support around 4800 [3]. - This week, the production volume and capacity utilization rate of PVC are expected to fluctuate slightly on a week - on - week basis. In the medium to long term, the planned commissioning of 900,000 - ton devices by Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf in September will increase the industry's supply pressure [3]. - Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak terminal real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand, and the Indian PVC anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented soon, causing the export market to remain in a wait - and - see mode. The considerable profit of caustic soda weakens the cost support of calcium carbide and ethylene [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4857 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10; the trading volume is 709,598 lots, a decrease of 48,778; the open interest is 1,266,528 lots, a decrease of 25,558. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 150,419 lots, an increase of 15,294 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4985 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4673.46 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.92. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4920 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4771.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 690 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 207 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), 2606.67 yuan/ton in North China, an increase of 16.67, and 2428 yuan/ton in Northwest China (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton (unchanged). The weekly average price of VCM CFR in the Far East is 503 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and 539 US dollars/ton in Southeast Asia (unchanged). The weekly average price of EDC CFR in the Far East is 189 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and 201 US dollars/ton in Southeast Asia (unchanged) [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 77.13%, an increase of 1.11%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 76.73%, a decrease of 0.52%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 78.14%, an increase of 5.19%. The total social inventory of PVC is 533,000 tons, an increase of 11,100 tons. The total inventory in the East China region is 478,100 tons, an increase of 14,500 tons, and the total inventory in the South China region is 54,900 tons, a decrease of 3400 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, a decrease of 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, an increase of 4.84168 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6.38731 billion square meters, an increase of 5.40957 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 281.0593 billion yuan, an increase of 36.3043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 8.48%, an increase of 0.2; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.25%, a decrease of 0.05. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC is 15.15%, a decrease of 0.48 [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 10, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4620 to 4730 yuan/ton [3]. - From August 30 to September 5, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11% [3]. - As of September 4, the social inventory of PVC increased by 2.44% week - on - week to 918,200 tons. The V2601 fluctuated slightly and closed at 4857 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the restart of previously shut - down devices drove a 1.46% week - on - week increase in PVC production last week to 660,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.11% week - on - week to 77.13%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.9% week - on - week to 43.5%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.13 to 33.48% week - on - week, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 4.21% week - on - week to 38.39%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of PVC increased by 2.44% week - on - week to 918,200 tons [3].

Report Overview - **Report Name**: Pure Benzene Industry Daily Report 2025 - 09 - 10 [1] - **Analyst**: Lin Jingyi (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558), Assistant Analyst: Xu Tianze (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03133092) [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - BZ2603 showed a slight oscillation and closed at 6,019 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the supply of pure benzene is expected to contract slightly, while domestic demand is expected to decline significantly. The supply - demand gap is expected to widen, putting pressure on spot prices. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the range around 5,950 - 6,100 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 6,019 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the settlement price was 6,012 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The trading volume was 2,588 lots, down 43 lots; the open interest was 13,597 lots, down 15 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast markets were 5,915 yuan/ton, 5,910 yuan/ton, 5,900 yuan/ton, and 5,905 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi were 6,025 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea was 715 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars; the CFR mid - price in China was 732.5 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 66.87 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 597.25 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 45.33 tons, up 0.14 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 14.9 tons, up 1.1 tons. The production cost was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 79.74%, up 1.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of September 8, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 14.4 tons, a 3.36% decrease from the previous period. From August 29 to September 4, the profit of the Chinese petroleum benzene industry was 512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 159 yuan/ton from the previous period [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2601 fluctuated slightly, closing at 2,576 yuan/ton. The caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 1.8% week-on-week to 84.2% last week. The alumina开工率 decreased by 1.2% week-on-week to 84.38%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 1.08% week-on-week to 87.10%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 increased by 0.9% week-on-week to 65.63%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.17% week-on-week to 387,800 tons last week. One set of equipment in Central China and two sets in the Northwest are scheduled for maintenance this week, which may lead to a slight decline in capacity utilization. There are many maintenance plans for chlor-alkali plants in September, and the industry's supply pressure is expected to be relieved. Some alumina enterprises have short-term elastic production, but due to the considerable industry profits, the production enthusiasm of alumina enterprises is still high. Non-aluminum demand has a seasonal increase, and some previously shut-down plants have restarted. The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda is not large, and attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory removal rhythm. In terms of spot, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain stable or rise slightly in the short term. In terms of futures, the high-level of caustic soda warehouse receipts has decreased, but the fourth-quarter production capacity expectation still suppresses the futures price, and the main contract may continue to be at a discount. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2,576 yuan/ton; the main contract open interest is 110,586 lots, an increase of 568 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is -8,561 lots, an increase of 4,574 lots; the main contract trading volume is 245,799 lots, a decrease of 16,050 lots; the closing price of the January contract is 2,576 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract is 2,670 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 940 yuan/ton. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2,718.75 yuan/ton. The basis is 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal is 641 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is -150 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is -200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,040 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina is 3,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [1] 3.6 Industry News - From August 29 to September 4, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.2%, a week-on-week increase of 1.8%. As of September 4, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 387,800 tons (wet weight), a week-on-week increase of 2.17% and a year-on-year increase of 35.17% [1]