Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and inventories are expected to continue the destocking trend. The peak season for greenhouse films is approaching, and packaging film orders are also supported, with the demand side gradually improving. In the medium - long term, the planned restart of some devices and the expected commissioning of ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE plant in September will increase the industry's supply pressure. The global crude oil supply - demand is weak, and although the short - term geopolitical deterioration in the Middle East still supports oil prices to some extent, it has an impact on costs. Technically, L2601 should pay attention to the support around 7,200 and the pressure around 7,300 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,247 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7,247 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,240 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,185 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan. The trading volume was 212,912 lots, down 11,546 lots; the open interest was 490,459 lots, up 9,091 lots. The 9 - 1 spread was - 62, down 12. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 333,381 lots, up 7,130 lots; the short positions were 360,509 lots, up 5,936 lots; the net long positions were - 27,128 lots, up 1,194 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,266.96 yuan/ton, down 11.74 yuan; in East China was 7,340.48 yuan/ton, down 7.38 yuan. The basis was 14.96, up 6.26 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 64.94 US dollars/barrel, up 0.47 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 600.5 US dollars/ton, up 4.25 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 836 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia was 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 78.68%, down 0.04 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 49.56%, down 0.29 percentage points; of pipes was 30.17%, down 0.5 percentage points; of agricultural films was 17.46%, up 2.93 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 5.89%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.51%, up 0.04 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.38%, up 0.79 percentage points; of at - the - money call options was 10.37%, up 0.79 percentage points [2] Industry News - From August 22nd to 28th, China's total polyethylene production was 617,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene producers was 78.72%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous period. The average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.3% from the previous period. As of September 3rd, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 450,800 tons, a 5.57% increase from the previous period; as of August 29th, the sample inventory of polyethylene social warehouses was 560,500 tons, a 0.27% decrease from the previous period [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On Wednesday, the RB2601 contract first rose and then declined. In August, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.35%. Market sentiment was weak, spot trading was average, and inventories continued to rise. Overall, the steel market was intertwined with multiple and short factors, and the increase in short positions of mainstream positions was greater, putting pressure on futures prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA crossed at a low level, and the red bar shrank. The operation strategy is to be oscillating and bearish, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,106 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] - RB main contract position: 1,754,813 lots, up 79,569 lots [2] - RB contract top 20 net positions: -204,228 lots, down 8,017 lots [2] - RB10 - 1 contract spread: -72 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] - RB SHFE warehouse receipt: 222,253 tons, up 7,032 tons [2] - HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 193 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,250 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,333 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2] - Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,270 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - RB main contract basis: 144 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 777 yuan/wet ton, up 9 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - 45-port iron ore inventory: 13,763.02 million tons, down 82.18 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 39.71 million tons, up 0.33 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 610.12 million tons, up 0.43 million tons [2] - Tangshan billet inventory: 128.36 million tons, up 12.27 million tons [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.18%, down 0.16 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.00%, down 0.27 percentage points [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill rebar output: 220.56 million tons, up 5.91 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 48.35%, up 1.30 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill rebar inventory: 169.62 million tons, down 4.91 million tons [2] - 35-city rebar social inventory: 453.77 million tons, up 21.26 million tons [2] - Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 70.83%, unchanged [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons [2] - Chinese rebar monthly output: 1,658 million tons, up 140 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 939 million tons, up 18 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 93.34, down 0.25 [2] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment: 1.60%, down 1.20 percentage points [2] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate development investment: -12.00%, down 0.80 percentage points [2] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 3.20%, down 1.40 percentage points [2] - Cumulative value of housing construction area: 638,731 million square meters, down 5,410 million square meters [2] - Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 35,206 million square meters, down 4,842 million square meters [2] - Commercial housing unsold area: 40,536 million square meters, up 285 million square meters [2] - From August 27 to September 2, the capacity utilization rate of 506 domestic concrete mixing stations was 6.64%, basically unchanged week-on-week and down 0.73 percentage points year-on-year. The shipment volume was 1.329 million cubic meters, down 0.1% week-on-week and 10% year-on-year [2] 3.6 Industry News - On September 2, the ISM data showed that the US manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August due to output decline, indicating that the manufacturing industry was still in trouble [2] 3.7 Key Focus - Thursday's rebar weekly output, in-plant inventory, and social inventory [2]

远看，光伏行业需求预计会有所收缩，这可能限制多晶硅对工业硅需求的持续增长。铝合金方面，整体库 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 存继续大幅上行，虽价格有所上升，但铝合金行业开工情况稳定，但需求表现较为一般，对工业硅拉动有 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 限。整体而言，三大下游行业对工业硅总需求依旧呈现持平。当前行业库存仍处于高位，尽管标准仓单数 免责声明 量有所减少，但库存消化仍面临一定压力。今日技术形态有所缩量，预计后续将继续震荡筑底，操作上建 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 议,若后期跌破8200元，可以考虑中长线逢低布局多单。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 工业硅产业日报 2025- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **General Market Situation**: The international rapeseed futures market rebounded technically, while the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal markets are affected by factors such as import policies, supply and demand, and international trade relations. The market volatility has increased, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the international market, the expected high yield of US soybeans brings supply - side pressure, but the reduction in planting area provides support. In the domestic market, the decrease in near - month rapeseed arrivals, the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand, and the anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed weaken the supply. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Internationally, concerns about palm oil production and strong export data affect the market. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain prices. But low oil mill operating rates and reduced near - month rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9727 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2521 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 629.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5496 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 169 yuan/ton, unchanged; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 115 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 6931 lots, down 8304 lots; for rapeseed meal, they were - 15798 lots, up 11682 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 4487 pieces, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 5041 pieces, down 1000 pieces [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9870 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9935 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 7896.61 yuan/ton, up 28.48 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 3.73, up 0.02; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 143 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 79 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 470 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume was 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - **Profit and Operating Rates**: The import rapeseed crushing profit was 733 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 11.99%, down 0.8% [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.4 tons, down 0.1 tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory was 55.4 tons, down 0.1 tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 4.85 tons, down 0.05 tons. The coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 tons, up 0.4 tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory was 30.86 tons, down 2 tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory was 20 tons, down 1.4 tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 2.26 tons, down 0.55 tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 2.89 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly output of feed was 2827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.48%, down 0.05%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 19.47%, down 0.06%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 32.19%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 21.91%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 12.14%, down 0.98%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 12.15%, down 0.97%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 18.35%, down 0.57%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.38%, down 0.12% [2]. Industry News - The ICE rapeseed futures rebounded technically on September 2, with the most actively traded November contract rising 3.90 Canadian dollars to settle at 630.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The Pro Farmer report predicted that the average yield of US soybeans would reach a record high of 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total output of 4.246 billion bushels, indicating stable crop potential and supply - side pressure [2]. - Statistics Canada predicted that the rapeseed production in Canada in 2025 would increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons, and China's anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed might affect its exports [2]. - The expansion of protests in Indonesia raised concerns about palm oil production and transportation, while strong export data from Malaysia supported the palm oil market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The steel market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the mainstream funds' positions are bearish. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rebounding from low levels. Operationally, short positions should be taken on rebounds, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,299 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the position volume is 1,249,082 lots, up 31,805 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is -94,945 lots, down 3,832 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is 11 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,360 tons, down 300 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 193 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,380 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan is 3,410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract is 81 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the spread between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar is 130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 777 yuan/wet ton, up 9 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 137.6302 million tons, down 0.8218 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 397,100 tons, up 3,300 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.1012 million tons, up 4,300 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 1.2836 million tons, up 122,700 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.18%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90%, down 0.27 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.2474 million tons, down 5,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 82.95%, down 0.13 percentage points. The weekly inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 796,800 tons, up 7,900 tons; the weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.8578 million tons, up 32,300 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 9.39 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [2]. Industry News - As of the morning of September 2, research shows that 78 coal mines in Shanxi have voluntarily stopped production due to safety and maintenance reasons, involving a production capacity of 94.8 million tons. According to the preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in August was 1.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 10%; the cumulative wholesale from January to August this year was 8.93 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 34% [2]. Key Focus - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant, demand to stabilize, and prices to remain under pressure overall, but there may be variables with anti - involution hype. It is recommended to buy on dips for the short - term soda ash main contract. - The glass market is expected to continue consolidating. It is recommended to buy on dips for the glass main contract. The glass supply remains at a low level, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory reduction trend remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of a restocking market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1276 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from the previous day; glass main contract closing price: 1135 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 141 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous day. - Soda ash main contract open interest: 1420969 lots, down 10459 lots from the previous day; glass main contract open interest: 1324537 lots, down 3230 lots from the previous day. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest: - 295010 lots, down 16840 lots from the previous day; glass top 20 net open interest: - 203082 lots, down 350 lots from the previous day. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 5082 tons, down 118 tons from the previous day; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 2026 tons, down 5 tons from the previous day. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 3 yuan, down 3 yuan from the previous day; glass September - January contract spread: - 195 yuan, down 16 yuan from the previous day. - Soda ash basis: - 102 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; glass basis: - 79 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1165 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day; Central China heavy soda ash: 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - East China light soda ash: 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Central China light soda ash: 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - Shahe glass sheets: 1056 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day; Central China glass sheets: 1090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 82.47%, down 6.01 percentage points from the previous week; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.68%, up 0.34 percentage points from the previous week. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged from the previous week; glass in - production production lines: 224, up 1 from the previous week. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 181.93 tons, down 4.82 tons from the previous week; glass enterprise inventory: 6256.6 ten - thousand weight boxes, down 104 ten - thousand weight boxes from the previous week [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative value of new construction area in real estate: 352060000 square meters, up 48416800 square meters; cumulative value of real estate completion area: 250340000 square meters, up 24673900 square meters [2]. Industry News - Multiple soda ash production enterprises have reduced production, shut down for maintenance, or reduced their loads, including Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical, Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical, Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical, etc. - The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is expected to be loose, demand to stabilize, and prices to remain under pressure. The inventory reduction process may be repeated. - Glass: Supply remains at a low level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory reduction trend remains unchanged. There is a possibility of a restocking market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core View of the Report - The freight futures prices of the container shipping index (European Line) declined collectively on Wednesday. The main contract EC2510 closed down 3.04%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 3%. The spot indicators continued to decline. The "price war" has put continuous pressure on the fundamentals. With uncertainties in the trade war, weak demand expectations for the container shipping index (European Line), and large fluctuations in futures prices, investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1323.000, down 41.5; EC secondary main contract closing price: 1701.2, down 53.9 - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: +14.60 up; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: -211.00, down 1.60 - EC contract basis: +17.70 up, 450.60 - EC main contract open interest: 51946, down 2211 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1773.60, down 216.60; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly): 1013.90, down 27.48 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1445.06, up 29.70; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1156.32, down 18.55; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1685.80, down 71.94 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1986.00, up 38.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1764.00, up 49.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 14170.00, up 274.00; average charter price (Capesize ship): 26105.00, down 359.00 [1] Industry News - China's Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice clarifying 4 tax - exemption measures to support the operation and management of state - owned equity and cash proceeds transferred to enrich the social security fund. These measures have been in effect since April 1, 2024, and eligible paid taxes can be refunded, which directly boosts the investment return of the social security fund [1] - US President Trump said he would appeal the global tariff case ruling to the US Supreme Court. He believes that uncertainty causes the stock market to fall. Winning or losing the tariff case will have a significant impact on the stock market, and canceling tariffs may make the US a third - world country [1] - Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hino Ryozo said that based on the improvement of the economy and prices, it is appropriate to continue to raise interest rates. Despite three rate hikes, Japan's real interest rate remains at a significantly low level due to persistent inflation, and there is still room for monetary policy normalization [1] Key Data to Focus On - September 4, 17:00, Eurozone retail sales month - on - month rate for July - September 4, 20:15, US ADP employment change (in ten thousand people) for August - September 4, 20:30, US initial jobless claims (in ten thousand people) for the week ended August 30 - September 4, 20:30, US trade balance (in billion US dollars) for July [1]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 13550 | -45 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 73596 | 208 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 430 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -15747 | 102 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13900 | -300 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 13500 | -100 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 15800 | 0 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 350 | -255 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | -1 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | 0 | -0.1 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 3050 | 0 | | | 玉米现货价 | 2363.73 | 0.4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market recognizes the reduction in the output of new - season Xinjiang gray dates, but there are certain differences in output estimates [2]. - Downstream demand is weak, market purchasing and sales are average, and old - crop inventories are in a slow de - stocking process. Spot prices are running smoothly, and red date futures are in a volatile trend. Future attention should be paid to the actual output and opening price performance. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for red dates is 11,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan; the main contract position is 136,718 lots, an increase of 4,526 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,801 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts is 10,037, with an effective warehouse receipt forecast of 737 lots [2]. 现货市场 - The unified - grade red date prices in Kashgar, Alar, and Aksu are 6 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 4.8 yuan/kg respectively; the wholesale prices of first - grade gray dates in Hebei and Henan are 4.8 yuan/jin and 4.75 yuan/jin respectively [2]. - The prices of special - grade red dates in Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong are 10.5 yuan/kg, 10.5 yuan/kg, and 11.7 yuan/kg respectively; the price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong is 10.6 yuan/kg [2]. Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 4.1% [2]. Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 9,456 tons, a decrease of 63 tons from last week, a 0.66% month - on - month decrease and a 74.95% year - on - year increase [2]. - The monthly export volume of red dates is 1,784,164 kg, an increase of 19,057 kg; the cumulative export volume is 18,899,838 kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 1.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan [2]. - The cumulative sales volume of red dates of HaoXiangNi is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year output growth rate is - 34.59% [2]. Industry News - On September 3, the weather in Alar was sunny with temperatures between 15 - 31°C. Jujube farmers were actively engaged in field management. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in September on jujube fruits [2]. - On Wednesday, the red date 2601 contract closed down 0.57%. In 2024, the red date output increased year - on - year, resulting in old - crop inventories being much higher than the same period last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory pressure of apples in the warehouse is not large, and the market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, which supports the price to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see when the price is high [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract decreased by 57 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract decreased by 3346 lots to 53,493 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures decreased by 1089 lots to 4,730 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remained unchanged, at 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output was 5128.51 million tons, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples increased by 0.04 yuan/kg to 9.75 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.48 million tons to 33.97 million tons. The apple export volume increased by 10,000 tons to 50,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The apple export amount decreased by 212,886 million US dollars to 1,742,602 million US dollars, and the import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts was 6328.4 million US dollars. The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants was 0.4 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines decreased by 1.07 yuan/kg to 8.69 yuan/kg, the fruit wholesale price of bananas decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg to 5.6 yuan/kg, and the fruit wholesale price of watermelons increased by 3 yuan/kg to 3.51 yuan/kg. The morning average daily arrival vehicle volumes in Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets changed to 14.4, 17.2, and 27.2 vehicles respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 21.38%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options decreased by 18.16 percentage points to 3.22% [2] Industry News - On September 3, 2025, rainfall in western production areas affected the picking and listing of early Fuji apples. The transaction of Shandong inventory Fuji apples was still light [2] Viewpoint Summary - The new - season apple output is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 27, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.48 million tons week - on - week. The overall quality of early - maturing fruits was poor, and the market was worried about the late - maturing Fuji apples' quality and high opening price expectations [2]