1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the corn market, the international corn price is suppressed by high supply pressure and relatively loose global and US corn supply - demand. However, the strong US domestic spot market and good export demand support the price. In the domestic market, Northeast China's increased reserve acquisition supports the market bottom, but some farmers' selling enthusiasm and enterprises' wait - and - see lead to a narrowing of the upward range. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, the price fluctuates narrowly. The corn futures price has fallen from a high recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For the corn starch market, the supply pressure increases due to abundant raw material supply and rising industry operating rate. But the demand is good, and the inventory has decreased. Affected by the fall of corn prices, the starch price has also fallen, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2236 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 125832 hands, a decrease of 2066 hands. The registered warehouse receipt volume is 59705 hands [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2522 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 40774 hands, a decrease of 13862 hands. The registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 337 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 444 cents/bushel, a decrease of 1 cent/bushel. The total position is 1637907 contracts, a decrease of 6343 contracts. The non - commercial net long position is 69481 contracts, a decrease of 13862 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2359.22 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37 yuan/ton. The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The CIF price of imported corn is 2146.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.89 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area and yield of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine show different figures, with no change in the predicted yield for most regions. The corn inventory in southern ports is 51.7 tons, a decrease of 8.2 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 275.4 tons, an increase of 5.6 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The corn inventory in northern ports is 163 tons, an increase of 23 tons. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 105.4 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons. The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, an increase of 2 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12.78 tons, a decrease of 2.02 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2957 tons, a decrease of 171.7 tons. The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is 6 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hebei is 100 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is - 62 yuan/ton, unchanged. The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 70.28%, a decrease of 1.06%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 61.66%, an increase of 0.28% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 1.99%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 10.82%, an increase of 0.53%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for corn is 10.27%, a decrease of 2.63% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - As of December 4, the first - season corn sowing in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is almost over. - In the week ending December 4, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,452,822 tons, lower than the previous week and higher than the same period last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases, and the overall inventory accumulation rate narrowing. Overseas shipments arriving at the port remain at a high level, rubber prices are fluctuating downward, tire companies are making appropriate low - price purchases according to demand, the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved, and the warehouse outbound volume has increased slightly month - on - month, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. In terms of demand, as the production of previously overhauled enterprises gradually resumes to normal levels, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month last week, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise is slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,200 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,985 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract was 12,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 1 - 2 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber was 2,905 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 127,685 lots, an increase of 3,726 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - rubber contract was 56,144 lots, an increase of 26,357 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 27,378 lots, an increase of 1,839 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber was - 10,295 lots, a decrease of 4,066 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 46,030 tons, unchanged; the 20 - rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 56,752 tons, a decrease of 402 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,815 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,380 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai rubber basis was - 365 yuan/ton, unchanged; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 685 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,806 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract was 741 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 125 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 23.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 43.2 US dollars/ton, an increase of 70.2 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 126,100 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 256,400 tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.5%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.92%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 39.51 days, a decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 44.95 days, a decrease of 0.28 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying was 13.18%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying was 15.47%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.71%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.73%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase of 1.38%. As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The butadiene rubber market this week was mainly affected by news factors of natural rubber and butadiene. With no clear positive factors in the supply - demand fundamentals, downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance. Sample production enterprise inventories increased, and sample trading enterprise inventories decreased slightly. - As the production of previously overhauled enterprises gradually returns to normal, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased last week, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise was slow. In the short term, the production control behavior of enterprises still exists, and the increase in overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. - The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,250 - 10,700 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 10,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The position volume of the main contract was 76,409, an increase of 48,955. The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 4,340 tons, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in different regions increased. For example, the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 62.49 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.26 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 58.88 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.2 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 745 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was 563.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.75 dollars/ton; the price of butadiene (CFR China) was 860 dollars/ton, unchanged. The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 7,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.94 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 70.4%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 41,100 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 56.11%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.75 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 73.53%, an increase of 3.34 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 484 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 27,100 tons, an increase of 200 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,230 tons, a decrease of 310 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.51 days, a decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 44.95 days, a decrease of 0.28 days. As of December 4th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 4th, the production of previously overhauled sample enterprises gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. - In November, the domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points. - As of December 4th, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. Some tight - supply resources were replenished this period, but due to downstream price - pressing, trading was weak. The inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises increased, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly. Some Shandong plants are about to undergo temporary overhauls, which will lead to a slight decrease in supply, and both production and trading enterprise inventories are expected to decrease slightly [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The raw material cost of stainless steel has decreased due to the decline in ferronickel prices. The production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The downstream demand is turning to the off - season, and the export volume is decreasing. The national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase. Technically, the short - selling sentiment has declined. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will be adjusted strongly, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 12,600 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The spread between the 01 - 02 contracts is - 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,521 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,872 lots, an increase of 978 lots. The main - contract position is 78,164 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 61,556 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 460 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel production is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 585,300 tons, a decrease of 12,300 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing construction area is 490,613,900 square meters, an increase of 36,623,900 square meters. The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 219,000 units, a decrease of 43,000 units. The monthly production of excavators is 309,000 units, a decrease of 7,000 units. The monthly production of small tractors is 90,000 units, a decrease of 10,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026. Next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, and continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. In November, China's passenger - car sales declined for the second consecutive month, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% to 2.24 million vehicles. The export in November increased by 52.4%. The Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the domestic ferronickel plants' raw - material inventory is tightening. However, Indonesia's ferronickel production remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates and declines, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis [2]. - The copper concentrate processing fee index drops again. Due to Chile raising the premium for copper spot in China and domestic CSPT members planning to reduce the capacity load of mined copper by 10% next year, market concerns about the tight supply of copper ore intensify [2]. - On the supply side, the good revenue from smelting by - product sulfuric acid offsets part of the high raw material costs. Smelters are operating well, and the previously affected production capacity is gradually resuming, leading to an increase in the domestic refined copper supply [2]. - On the demand side, the copper price remains strong due to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and raw material cost support. The short - term high - priced copper suppresses the downstream purchasing sentiment, and downstream buyers are becoming more cautious, mostly replenishing stocks based on rigid demand [2]. - In terms of consumption, the year - end sales rush of automobile enterprises and the rush work in the power system provide certain demand resilience for Shanghai copper. The social inventory is still slightly decreasing [2]. - In the options market, the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.23, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0791. The market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines are above the zero axis, and the green bars are expanding. The report suggests light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 91,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,880 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,491.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 144 dollars [2]. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 210,572 lots, a decrease of 19,473 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders in Shanghai copper is - 44,609 lots, a decrease of 10,180 lots; the LME copper inventory is 164,550 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 88,905 tons, a decrease of 9,025 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 63,175 tons, a decrease of 675 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 29,531 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 92,215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 92,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 46 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 41 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract is 1,125 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,795 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 8.19 dollars/ton, a decrease of 14.86 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, a decrease of 13.56 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.86 dollars/thousand tons, a decrease of 0.11 dollars [2]. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 82,470 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 730 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 83,170 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 730 yuan [2]. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The production of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, a decrease of 6.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 62,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of copper products is 200.40 million tons, a decrease of 22.80 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 4,824.34 billion yuan, an increase of 446.27 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, an increase of 5,856.99 billion yuan; the monthly production of integrated circuits is 4,177 million pieces, a decrease of 194,236.10 pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.02%, an increase of 2.47%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.50%, an increase of 0.80% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 20.58%, a decrease of 0.0182; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.23, an increase of 0.0791 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and promoting high - quality development through multiple measures [2]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from January to October 2025, China's automobile exports reached 6.46 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22%. In October, exports were 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 40% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. From January to October 2025, new energy vehicle exports were 2.65 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 54%, higher than the 19% growth rate in the same period in 2024 [2]. - The Fed is scheduled to hold an interest - rate meeting on December 9th and 10th. The market generally expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut. The market will focus on Powell's press - conference Q&A session and the last "dot plot" of the year [2]. - According to the General Administration of Customs, in the first 11 months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In November, the total import and export value was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the cotton (yarn) industry dated December 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, the supply of cotton is sufficient with new cotton inspection volume exceeding 460 million tons and high port cotton stocks. The import quota is mostly used up, and the import cotton ports have more outflows than inflows. The inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 1.92% week - on - week as of December 4, reaching 387,600 tons, a 5 - month high. The downstream demand is relatively differentiated, with the demand for high - count yarn improving, which boosts the cotton market to some extent. Overall, the demand shows marginal improvement, but the supply remains loose, limiting the rebound of cotton prices. Attention should be paid to new driving factors in the later stage [2] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 13,740 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position: - 130,375 lots, up 100 lots; main contract cotton position: 478,567 lots, down 10,495 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 2,749 lots, down 4 lots; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,945 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net position: - 422 lots, down 104 lots; main contract cotton yarn position: 17,370 lots, up 1,307 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 12 lots, down 1 lot [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 14,999 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count): 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,843 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 13,882 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count): 21,059 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count): 22,234 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,801 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory: 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons; monthly cotton import volume: 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; monthly cotton yarn import volume: 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; import cotton profit: 1,127 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory: 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; grey cloth inventory days: 31.97 days, up 0.85 days; monthly cloth output: 2.62 billion meters, down 180 million meters; monthly yarn output: 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons; monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 110,034,804,300 US dollars, down 14,497,665,700 US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 112,584,189,200 US dollars, down 7,080,970,800 US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton call options: 7.48%, up 0.06%; implied volatility of at - the - money cotton put options: 7.48%, up 0.06%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.78%, unchanged; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 6.64%, unchanged [2] Group 5: Industry News - According to the USDA report, in the week ending November 6, 2025/26 US upland cotton export sales increased by 292,100 bales, a 258% increase from the previous week and a 113% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 135,900 bales, a 7% decrease from the previous week and a 12% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The ICE cotton futures fell on Monday as traders were cautious before the USDA monthly supply - demand report. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.25 cents, or 0.39%, at 63.68 cents per pound [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Some new urea production units are under maintenance, leading to a continuous decline in domestic urea production. With some short - term equipment failures, the possibility of a decline in capacity utilization is high. Reserve demand has temporarily slowed down due to the rapid increase in urea prices. The start - up rate of compound fertilizers has increased month - on - month, and short - term capacity utilization is expected to show a narrow increase. With the new quota in place, export demand is gradually increasing. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline last week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1680 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1643 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou urea is - 68 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the trading volume is 3804; the position of the main contract is 150646 lots, down 16428 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 5968; the exchange warehouse receipt is 11477 sheets, down 49 sheets [2] 2. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Henan, Jiangsu, and Shandong, it is 1690 yuan/ton, down 20, 20, and 30 yuan respectively; in Anhui, it is 1690 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 44 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 352.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price at the main port in China is 391.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3. Industry Situation - The port inventory is 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 129.05 million tons, down 7.34 million tons. The urea enterprise start - up rate is 81.83%, down 1.88%; the daily urea output is 197900 tons, down 4500 tons. The urea export volume is 120 million tons, down 17 million tons; the monthly output of urea is 6000330 tons, up 129060 tons [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of compound fertilizers is 40.53%, up 3.47%; the start - up rate of melamine is 61.66%, up 0.86%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 56 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 29 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 438.25 million tons, up 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32100 tons, up 600 tons [2] 5. Industry News - As of December 3, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 129.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.34 million tons, or 5.38%. As of December 4, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 10.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 million tons, or 5%. The current export has a continuous expectation of cargo collection at ports, but the cargo collection rhythm is still slow [2] 6. Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The macro - policy will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to expand domestic demand and optimize supply. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports are declining, domestic refinery profits are shrinking, and production is expected to drop significantly. Overseas supply remains tight, and China is expected to turn into a net exporter. On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging and other sectors showing weakness, but the automotive sector has some policy - supported highlights. Technically, there is price correction with shrinking volume and reduced positions, and the bullish sentiment has declined. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will adjust at a high level, and attention should be paid to the support at the 23,000 level [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 23,070 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 10 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,130.5 dollars/ton, up 32 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 208,468 lots, down 6,432 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 13,905 lots, down 15 lots. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 91,916 tons, down 4,000 tons; the LME inventory is 57,750 tons, up 2,375 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,190 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is 120 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is 166.73 dollars/ton, up 3.73 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 19,780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons. The zinc ore imports are 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc imports are 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc exports are 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 1.325 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the sales volume is 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 15.28%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 15.28%, an increase of 0.98 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.94%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.75%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [3] Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing the implementation of proactive policies to boost the economy. In November, China's passenger car sales declined for the second consecutive month, with fuel - powered cars dropping 22% and new energy vehicle growth unable to offset the decline, but exports increased by 52.4% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As of December 3, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 763.51 tons, a decrease of 3.24 tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 53.97%, down 0.23% from the previous week, and in Shaanxi it was 58.21%, also down 0.23% from the previous week. Shandong's出库 performance was slow with limited in - warehouse transactions. In Shaanxi, farmers' willingness to sell was still low. The arrival volume in the sales area increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere was still light, with overstock in transit warehouses. Citrus fruits impacted the apple market, and there was an increased risk of price decline due to slow terminal sales [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract was 9,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 7,764 lots, and the main contract's open interest was 132,145 lots, an increase of 5,972 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag, above 75) was 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag, above 75) it was 2.6 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag, above 70 semi - commercial) it was 4.2 yuan/jin; and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag, above 80, first - grade second - class fruit farmers' goods) it was 4 yuan/jin, with no changes in all cases [2]. Upstream Situation - The annual apple production in China was 5,128.51 million tons, and the production of second - grade fruit farmers' goods was 168.34 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price was 9.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.07 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan. The total national apple cold - storage inventory was 763.51 tons, a decrease of 3.24 tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.54, and in Shaanxi it was 0.58, with no changes. The monthly apple export volume was 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. The monthly year - on - year apple export amount decreased by 14.3%, a decrease of 5.8 percentage points. The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 1,334,364 million US dollars, a decrease of 503,616 million US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bag apples (80) was 0 yuan/jin [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears was 6.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan; of watermelons was 6 yuan/kg, with no change; of bananas was 5.41 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan. The average daily morning arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market was 17.2 vehicles, an increase of 1.2 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market was 19.6 vehicles, an increase of 0.4 vehicles; and at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market was 26.8 vehicles, an increase of 1.6 vehicles [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 22.62%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.63%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The overall trading speed in apple - producing areas was slow. In Shandong and Shaanxi, the number of inquiring merchants increased slightly, but most were on the sidelines, mainly with merchants' self - picked shipments. The market price changed little. In Gansu, some merchants continued to pick high - quality stored Fuji apples, with a general sales speed and stable prices. The overall transaction of late - season Fuji apples remained light, with limited orders from merchants in the producing areas. In the western producing areas, there were mainly small - volume shipments of farmers' two - grade goods [2].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/12/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 757.50 | -3.00↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 441,754 | +12385↑ | | 期货市场 | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 22.5 | +4.50↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 13000 | +4133↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,800.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 101.8 | -0.26↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 848 | -3↓ 青岛港60.5%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 837 | -3↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 749 | -5↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 79 | ...