Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current stock market is in a volatile adjustment, with market risk appetite slightly declining, leading to a phased recovery in the bond market. However, its fluctuation rhythm is still restricted by the stock - bond "seesaw" effect. If the upward momentum of the equity market weakens and the continuous upward trend ends, it may create favorable conditions for the bond market to have an independent market. - As the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September continues to rise, attention should be paid to China's fundamental data performance in August. If the economic data continues to weaken, it may boost the market's expectation of overall easing policies. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.04%, and 0.46% respectively, and trading volumes increased by 26100, 9741, 4112, and 40760 respectively. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T12 - TL12, TF12 - T12, etc. showed different changes, with some narrowing and some widening. - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all increased, and the net short positions of the top 20 in each contract also increased [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 220019.IB, 220017.IB, etc. increased. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1y - 10y active bonds decreased, with a decline of 0.1 - 0.75bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight, Shibor overnight, silver - pledged 7 - day, and Shibor 7 - day interest rates increased, while Shibor 14 - day interest rate decreased. - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations The issuance scale of open - market operations was 229.1 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 379.9 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - China's economic prosperity level continued to expand in August. The official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice on the tax policy for the operation and management of state - owned equity and cash income transferred to enrich the social security fund, exempting VAT on certain income. - The "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans" was officially implemented on September 1st, and some bank executives were optimistic about its impact [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On September 4th, 20:15, the US ADP employment number for August (in ten thousand people). - On September 5th, 20:30, the US seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls for August (in ten thousand people) [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the US, although the estimated corn production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high, it is still lower than the USDA's August forecast, adding expectations of a later USDA production cut. In the domestic market, with the approaching new - season corn listing in the Northeast, the continuous release of reserve - rotated corn, weakened confidence of traders, and sufficient stockpiles of grain - using enterprises, the corn market has weak trading and prices are in a weak adjustment. The corn market is under pressure [2]. - **Corn Starch**: During the transition period between old and new corn, some enterprises have limited production and maintenance, leading to a decline in the industry's operating rate. Supply pressure has decreased, demand has slightly improved, and inventory pressure has declined. However, the industry inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch are still good, squeezing the demand for corn starch. The starch market remains in a low - level oscillation and is still regarded as bearish [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Corn**: The closing price of the active corn futures contract is 2193 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan; the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 94 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 72743 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 65202 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 215 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the active corn starch futures contract is 2487 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the 11 - 1 monthly spread is 204 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 40051 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 hands [2]. Outer Market - The closing price of the active CBOT corn futures contract is 423 cents/bushel; the total weekly position is 1456701 contracts, down 109666 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is 34270 contracts, down 70940 contracts [2]. Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2363.73 yuan/ton, up 0.4 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 1930.38 yuan/ton, up 0.86 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton; the basis of the main corn contract is 170.73 yuan/ton, up 7.4 yuan [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2660 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 173 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 370 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 184 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 67 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 39.893 million hectares, 35.12 million hectares, 5.3 million hectares, and an unspecified amount respectively; the predicted yields are 162.04 billion bushels (US), 131 million tons (Brazil), 7.5 million tons (Argentina), 295 million tons (China), and 30.5 million tons (Ukraine) [2]. - The corn inventory at southern ports is 770,000 tons, down 280,000 tons; the inventory of deep - processed corn is 2942,000 tons, down 205,000 tons; the inventory at northern ports is 1750,000 tons; the monthly import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly export volume of corn starch is 15,940 tons, up 1440 tons; the monthly feed production is 28273,000 tons, down 110,400 tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 28.13 days, down 0.72 days; the deep - processed corn consumption is 11402,000 tons, up 4000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 42.87%, down 0.7%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 47.7%, down 3.31%; the corn starch processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 130 yuan/ton, - 60 yuan/ton, and - 110 yuan/ton respectively, down 8 yuan/ton, 9 yuan/ton, and 29 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.48%, up 0.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.3%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.68%, down 0.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.67%, down 0.35% [2]. Industry News - As of August 31, in 18 states accounting for 92% of the country's corn - sown area, the proportion of US corn in the dough stage was 90%, up from 83% a week ago, compared with 89% in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week ending August 28, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,407,050 tons, up from the revised 1,338,532 tons last week and 966,544 tons in the same period last year [2]. - Pro Farmer's final production forecast report shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 16.204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's August forecast [2].

减量，对整体产能利用率形成一定影响，本月初部分企业存3-6天检修计划，或对短期产能利用率仍存一定 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 15 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 15885 | | 12715 | 5 | | | | -80 | 20 20号胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | -50 | 0 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3170 | 10 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 147050 | 3830 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 36890 | -1963 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -33638 | -1947 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -6787 | 451 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 167760 | -160 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 45664 | -100 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with an increase in open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. The cost - support logic for copper prices remains strong due to rising raw material prices and negative TC fees in the mining end. The supply of domestic refined copper may decline slightly as domestic copper concentrate port inventories are low and raw material supply is relatively tight. The downstream export demand may decline due to high tariffs on copper semi - products imposed by the US, while domestic demand is expected to recover due to macro - policy support and the approaching traditional consumption season. The overall inventory will remain at a medium - low level and gradually decrease with the recovery of consumption. The industry outlook is positive. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows red bars converging with both lines above the 0 - axis. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper main futures contract is 80,110 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,015 dollars/ton, up 34.5 dollars. The main contract inter - month spread is 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 192,109 lots, up 12,044 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 5,870 lots, down 778 lots. The LME copper inventory is 158,875 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) cathode copper inventory is 79,748 tons, down 1,950 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 19,501 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,520 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,455 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 56.5 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is 410 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 69.58 dollars/ton, up 16.69 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The TC fee for domestic copper smelters is - 41.48 dollars/kiloton, down 0.33 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 70,440 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,140 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan. The processing fee for crude copper in the South is 700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the North, it is 700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, down 3.2 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,740 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 53,579.77 billion yuan, up 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.25%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.18%, down 0.82%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 11.08%, down 0.0017. The call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.35, up 0.0006 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US ISM manufacturing index in August rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7, below the market expectation of 49, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new order index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, but the output index fell back into the contraction range. The employment index rose, and the price - paid index declined. After the data release, the probability of a September interest - rate cut rose above 90%, and the US dollar index rebounded. - The central bank's liquidity injection in August showed a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan, a net PSL withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and a net outright reverse - repurchase injection of 300 billion yuan, with no open - market treasury bond trading. - US President Trump said he would appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case and warned of a "perhaps unprecedented shock" if he loses the appeal. - The eurozone CPI in August rose 2.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2%. The core CPI declined slightly, and the service - price increase slowed down. An ECB hawkish official said the ECB should suspend interest - rate cuts due to upward inflation risks. - On September 2, Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two sides signed more than 20 bilateral cooperation documents in various fields [2].

免责声明 多晶硅产业日报 2025-09-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 52160 | 285 多晶硅11-12价差 | -2325 | -10 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 149210 | 3355 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 43670 | 265 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 51500 | 2500 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -375 | 2910 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 6.2 | 1.26 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 8490 | 20 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 52919.65 | -12 ...

沪铅产业日报 2025-09-03 整体供应有望减少，需求逐步走高，叠加市场对美联储降息预期，铅价建议逢低布局多单。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16865 | 15 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1994 | -9.5 | | | 09-10月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -45 | 5 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 83450 | 1115 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -2195 | 467 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 55874 | -554 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 64672 | 982 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 258025 | -1525 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16750 | 25 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16910 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -115 | 10 LME铅升贴水(0-3) ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - After continuous significant rallies, the upward momentum has slowed, and the market may experience short - term consolidation. The A - share semi - annual reports have been fully disclosed, and the market will enter a performance and policy vacuum period. In the current low - interest - rate environment, the transfer of household deposits will inject liquidity into the market. Previous policies on the entry of medium - and long - term funds will help optimize the A - share investment structure. With the high valuation of the US stocks, A - shares with reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows. Due to the poor economic data, there are still expectations for policy intensification. It is recommended to lightly position and buy on dips [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - All main and sub - main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed price declines. For example, the IF main contract (2509) dropped from the previous value by 42.8 to 4430.0, and the IF sub - main contract (2512) dropped by 50.4 to 4401.8. Various spreads also decreased, such as the IF - IH current - month contract spread which dropped by 7.4 to 1481.0. The differences between quarterly and current - month contracts mostly declined, e.g., IF current - quarter minus current - month decreased by 8.2 to - 28.2 [2]. Futures Position - The net positions of the top 20 traders in IF, IH, and IM decreased, with the IF top 20 net position dropping by 2380.0 to - 30,656.00, while the IC top 20 net position increased by 204.0 to - 17,402.00 [2]. Spot Price - The spot prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. For instance, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dropped by 30.6 to 4459.83. The basis of the corresponding futures contracts also mostly decreased, like the IF main contract basis dropping by 20.6 to - 29.8 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume decreased by 5167.41 billion yuan to 23,956.82 billion yuan. The margin trading balance decreased by 85.39 billion yuan to 22,884.52 billion yuan. However, the north - bound trading volume increased by 247.72 billion yuan to 3670.85 billion yuan. The proportion of rising stocks decreased by 8.02 percentage points to 15.15% [2]. Industry News - In August, China's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points. As of August 31, 2025, nearly 60% of A - share listed companies had year - on - year revenue growth, and over 75% were profitable. A - share major indexes generally closed lower, with large - cap stocks more resilient than small - and medium - cap stocks. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped significantly, and most industry sectors declined [2]. Key Data to Follow - On September 3 at 22:00, pay attention to the US JOLTs job openings in July. From 19:30 - 20:30 on September 4, focus on the US Challenger job cuts, ADP employment, and trade balance in July. At 20:30 on September 5, watch the US non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate in August [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the newly - opened production pressure of laying hens supplemented in the early stage is relatively large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous delivery of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure. Although the egg consumption demand has slightly rebounded due to Mid - Autumn Festival stocking and the start of the school term, it is still weak compared to the same period last year. With sufficient inventory at each link and egg quality problems in some areas, the short - term demand has a weak supporting effect on prices, and the spot price continues to run at the lowest level in the same period this year. However, continuous losses in the breeding sector may accelerate the process of old - hen culling and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment. Recently, after a continuous decline in the futures market, short - sellers have closed their positions for profit, driving the futures price to rebound from a low level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3011 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 52; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 34478 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 2882; the egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 38 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 27; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 379325 hands, with a week - on - week decrease of 62505; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands, with no week - on - week change [2] 现货市场 - The egg spot price is 3.15 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03; the basis (spot - futures) is 138 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week decrease of 18 [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 113.18 (with 2015 as 100), with a month - on - month increase of 1.27; the national culled laying - hen index is 99.2 (with 2015 as 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 4.89; the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas is 3 yuan/feather, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.2; the national new - chick index is 78.4 (with 2015 as 100), with a month - on - month increase of 2.33; the average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, with no week - on - week change; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.21 yuan/hen, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06; the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas is 9.66 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.44; the average age of culled hens nationwide is 512 days, with a month - on - month increase of 11 [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.04 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.24; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.1 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.28 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.16; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.12 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.06 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales areas is 7674 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 235 [2] Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 6.16 yuan/kg, with a price increase of 0.04 compared to yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.22 yuan/kg, the same as yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.40 yuan/kg, the same as yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.90 yuan/kg, the same as yesterday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices reached a record high during Asian trading hours and then entered a consolidation phase, while silver prices slightly corrected due to long - position profit - taking. The short - term strengthening of the US dollar also put pressure on gold prices, but the downside is expected to be limited [3]. - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is further consolidated, providing underlying support for non - interest - bearing gold. The release of the US manufacturing PMI data in August slightly boosted the probability of a rate cut, but the market is waiting for the non - farm payrolls report on Friday for clearer signals on the Fed's rate - cut path [3]. - Trump's actions and the potential Supreme Court ruling on the tariff policy inject new uncertainties into the market, which may bring additional support to precious metals with safe - haven attributes [3]. - Technically, both gold and silver have entered the overbought zone, and there may be a short - term adjustment need. Investors are advised to wait for a pullback before lightly entering the market [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 814.88 yuan/gram, up 10.56 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9820 yuan/kilogram, down 4 yuan [3]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 142,330 lots, up 3,706 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 270,592 lots, down 12,126 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 178,319 lots, up 2,015 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 130,335 lots, up 3,714 lots [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 40,251 kilograms, up 60 kilograms; that of silver was 1,227,039 kilograms, up 11,811 kilograms [3]. 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 809.48 yuan/gram, up 7.48 yuan; the silver spot price was 9,816 yuan/kilogram, down 5 yuan [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 5.4 yuan/gram, down 3.08 yuan; that of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 4 yuan/kilogram, down 1 yuan [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 990.56 tons, up 12.88 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,366.48 tons, up 56.48 tons [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 214,311 contracts, up 1,721 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 46,466 contracts, down 83 contracts [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. 3.4 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 9.45%, up 0.25%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.69%, up 0.05%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 22.76%, and that of at - the - money put options was 22.76% [3]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump will appeal the global tariff case ruling to the US Supreme Court and reiterates that the global tariff was launched due to the US economic emergency [3]. - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan said that based on the economic and price improvement, continuing to raise interest rates is a suitable policy choice [3]. - The US August ISM manufacturing index rose slightly but was still below the market expectation and the boom - bust line. The new orders index expanded, but the output index contracted [3]. - The Eurozone's August CPI rose 2.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI slightly declined. The service price increase slowed down [3]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 9.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 90.5% [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint On Wednesday, the I2601 contract rose and then consolidated. Macroscopically, the market's attention has shifted to the US non - farm payrolls data on Friday. Weak employment data this week may reignite discussions about a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore both increased this period, while domestic port inventories declined. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron production of steel mills decreased slightly, but the daily molten iron output remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, the spot market is firm, traders' enthusiasm for shipping is fair, buyers' inquiry sentiment is average, and the game between long and short positions is intense. The short - term market may still fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels to near the 0 axis. The operation suggestion is short - term trading, with attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3) Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 777.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan; the position volume was 465,930 lots, up 12,928 lots. - The price difference between the I 1 - 5 contracts was 22.5 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 15,259 lots, down 2,867 lots. - The warehouse receipts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 1,900.00 lots, unchanged. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 103.1 US dollars/ton, up 0.65 US dollars [2]. Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 842 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 826 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 730 yuan/dry ton, up 4 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 49 yuan, unchanged. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.70 US dollars/ton, up 0.85 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.37, down 0.03. - The estimated import cost was 840 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,556.80 million tons, up 241.00 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,645.00 million tons, up 182.70 million tons. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,388.02 million tons, down 56.18 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,007.19 million tons, down 58.28 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,462.00 million tons, down 133.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 18 days, unchanged. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.22 million tons, down 0.57 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.45%, down 0.51%. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 32.71 million tons, down 0.24 million tons. The BDI index was 1,986.00, down 38.00. - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.47 US dollars/ton, down 0.11 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.2 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.18%, down 0.16%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.00%, down 0.27%. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 19.54%, up 0.15%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 21.20%, up 0.03%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.49%, up 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 19.50%, up 0.85% [2]. Industry News - From August 25th to August 31st, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,645.0 million tons, up 182.7 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,526.0 million tons, up 132.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,300.8 million tons, up 147.8 million tons. - Mysteel statistics show that the total iron ore inventory at 47 imported ports in China was 14,376.11 million tons, down 12.57 million tons from last Monday; the total inventory at 45 ports was 13,776.51 million tons, down 22.17 million tons week - on - week [2].