Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - On September 1st, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,118.5, down 3.29%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No.5 coking coal was 1,350, equivalent to 1,130 on the futures market. The industry's macro - aspect shows that China's electricity consumption as a proportion of terminal energy consumption has reached 30%, higher than the world average and expected to rise to over 40% by 2035. Fundamentally, mine - end inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, and the cumulative import growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months with a moderately high inventory level. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 1st, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,594.5, down 3.54%. The eighth round of price increase for coke was not implemented, and the first - round price cut was proposed in some regions. The macro - aspect shows that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing market demand. Fundamentally, the hot metal output was 240.13 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. With high hot - metal production, there is no pressure on coal - mine inventory, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 55 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1,118.50元/吨，环比下降32.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1,594.50元/吨，环比下降48.50元 [2]。 - JM期货合约持仓量为920,229.00手，环比增加10,170.00手；J期货合约持仓量为52,306.00手，环比增加3,566.00手 [2]。 - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 135,349.00手，环比下降1,871.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 5,127.00手，环比增加167.00手 [2]。 - JM5 - 1月合约价差为49.00元/吨，环比增加7.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为96.50元/吨，环比增加6.00元 [2]。 - 焦煤仓单为300.00张，环比增加300.00张；焦炭仓单为970.00张，环比增加60.00张 [2]。 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为980.00元/吨，环比持平；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1,775.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]。 - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为150.00美元/湿吨，环比持平；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1,570.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]。 - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1,570.00元/吨，环比持平；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1,670.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]。 - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1,610.00元/吨，环比持平；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1,570.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]。 - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1,300.00元/吨，环比持平；J主力合约基差为180.50元/吨，环比增加48.50元 [2]。 - 内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1,100.00元/吨，环比持平；JM主力合约基差为181.50元/吨，环比增加32.50元 [2]。 Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量为26.00万吨，环比增加0.30万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤库存为289.50万吨，环比下降5.30万吨 [2]。 - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.37%，环比持平；原煤产量为38,098.70万吨，环比下降4,008.70万吨 [2]。 - 煤及褐煤进口量为3,561.00万吨，环比增加257.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为188.60万吨，环比下降2.60万吨 [2]。 Industry Situation - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为455.41万吨，环比增加4.96万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为268.66万吨，环比增加0.04万吨 [2]。 - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为961.27万吨，环比下降5.14万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为65.31万吨，环比增加0.94万吨 [2]。 - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为811.85万吨，环比下降0.46万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为610.07万吨，环比增加0.48万吨 [2]。 - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为13.25天，环比增加0.18天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为10.78天，环比增加0.02天 [2]。 - 炼焦煤进口量为962.30万吨，环比增加53.11万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为89.00万吨，环比增加38.00万吨 [2]。 - 炼焦煤产量为4,064.38万吨，环比下降5.89万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为73.36%，环比下降1.06% [2]。 - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为55.00元/吨，环比增加32.00元；焦炭产量为4,185.50万吨，环比增加15.20万吨 [2]。 Downstream Situation - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.18%，环比下降0.16%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为90.00%，环比下降0.27% [2]。 - 粗钢产量为7,965.82万吨，环比下降352.58万吨 [2]。 Industry News - 国家发改委提出发展“人工智能 +”，避免无序竞争和一拥而上，未来1 - 2年是人工智能落地的关键窗口期 [2]。 - 央视新闻称中国电能占终端能源消费比重已达30%，高于世界平均水平，预计到2035年将提升至40%以上 [2]。 - 新华社报道欧盟成员国讨论对以色列政策，西班牙外交大臣提议打破以色列封锁等 [2]。 - 观察者网消息美国商务部将撤销三星和SK海力士在中国工厂使用美国设备的豁免，限制措施120天后生效 [2]。

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The trade war uncertainty remains, the demand expectation for the container shipping index (European route) is weak, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2510 (main contract) closed at 1291.4, up 19.4; EC2511 (sub - main contract) closed at 1640.9, up 78.3. The main contract increased by 1.53%, and the far - month contracts increased by 1 - 5% [1]. - The spread between EC2510 and EC2512 was +15.7 higher; the spread between EC2510 and EC2602 was - 115, up 32.1 [1]. - The EC contract basis was 488.6, down 240.6 [1]. - The main contract's open interest was 52271 lots, down 989 [1]. Spot Market - SCFIS (European route) was 1773.6, down 216.6 week - on - week, a 10.9% decline; SCFIS (US West Coast route) was 1013.9, down 27.48 [1]. - SCFI (composite index) was 1445.06, up 29.7 week - on - week; container ship capacity was 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.07 [1]. - CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32, down 18.55 week - on - week; CCFI (European route) was 1685.8, down 71.94 [1]. - The Baltic Dry Index was 2025, down 8; the Panamax Freight Index was 1847, up 27. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 14170, down 224; that of Capesize ships was 26105, up 782 [1]. Industry News - Chinese official Li Chenggang visited the US to discuss Sino - US economic and trade relations [1]. - Trump's global tariff policy and the prosecution of dismissing Fed Governor Cook are facing a final ruling by the US Supreme Court [1]. - Japan and the US are discussing measures such as reducing tariffs and a joint document on a $550 billion investment in the US [1]. Market Analysis - The "price war" in the container shipping industry has put continuous pressure on the fundamentals. The US employment data in July was far below expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has soared. The internal demand in the eurozone is still weak [1]. Key Data to Focus On - Eurozone's preliminary August CPI annual rate at 17:00 on September 2nd - US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value at 21:45 on September 2nd - US August ISM Manufacturing PMI at 22:00 on September 2nd [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 1, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds strengthened collectively, with the yields of 1Y - 7Y maturities declining by about 0.25 - 1.25bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities declining by about 0.20bp to 1.77% and 2.02% respectively. Treasury bond futures also strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.02%, 0.08%, 0.17%, and 0.30% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 declined and fluctuated around 1.45%. [2] - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the manufacturing PMI in August rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line, with marginal improvements in supply and demand. The non - manufacturing PMI expanded at a faster pace, and overall production and business activities remained stable. The year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in July was 1.5%, and the decline in profits has narrowed for two consecutive months. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies to expand service consumption in September, which will promote the recovery of consumption growth. [2] - Overseas, the US PCE data for July met market expectations, the price level remained stable, and market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September continued to rise. Although the bond market has shown an independent trend recently, the current stock - bond cost - performance ratio is high, and the overall trend is still subject to changes in market risk appetite. In the short term, capital liquidity factors remain the core logic guiding bond market trading. [2] - The profit - taking sentiment of cash bond trading desks is strong. In the next stage, monetary policy will focus more on structural tools, and there is limited room for loosening at the aggregate level. Without incremental positive stimuli, the interest rate center lacks the impetus to decline further and may maintain high - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see for now. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.000, 105.595, 102.436, and 116.910 respectively, with increases of 0.17%, 0.08%, 0.02%, and 0.3% respectively. The trading volumes of T and TF main contracts increased by 10472 and 4284 respectively, while the trading volumes of TS and TL main contracts decreased by 8257 and 19489 respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the TL2512 - 2509 spread increasing by 0.10 to - 0.41, and the T2512 - 2509 spread decreasing by 0.06 to - 0.30. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts changed. For example, the T main contract position increased by 7482, and the TF main contract position decreased by 145. The net short positions of T, TF, TS, and TL also changed to varying degrees. [2] 3.2 Cash Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds changed, such as the 220019.IB (6y) increasing by 0.1553 to 105.7464, and the 220022.IB (2y) decreasing by 0.0068 to 102.1141. [2] - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 0.25bp, 1.75bp, 2.00bp, 1.75bp, and 1.00bp respectively. [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 2.74bp to 1.3174%, and the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 1.60bp to 1.3150%. The silver - pledged 7 - day rate decreased by 10.57bp to 1.4243%, and the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 7.20bp to 1.4380%. [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open market operations was 182.7 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 288.4 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 105.7 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase. [2] 3.5 Industry News - China's economic prosperity level continued to expand overall in August. The official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points. [2] - Li Chenggang, the Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce, visited the US and held talks with relevant US officials on Sino - US economic and trade relations. [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to improve the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and implement policies such as consumer goods trade - in. [2] 3.6 Key Data to Focus On - On September 1 at 17:00, the Eurozone's July unemployment rate; on September 2 at 22:00, the US August ISM manufacturing PMI. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook is bearish, putting overall pressure on the market, but the price is at a historically low level, limiting the downside space. The short - term operating range of V2601 is expected to be around 4800 - 4940 [3]. - This week, the restart of devices such as Zhongtai and Taishu Ningbo is expected to increase production and capacity utilization rate. In September, a total of 900,000 - ton devices of Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf are planned to be put into production, increasing the industry's supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [3]. - Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak terminal real estate market continues to drag down domestic demand [3]. - India's anti - dumping investigation on PVC will significantly increase the anti - dumping duty on Chinese PVC, and the policy is expected to be implemented as early as September [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4894 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the trading volume is 767,794 lots, down 38,602 lots; the open interest is 1,199,736 lots, up 4,503 lots [3]. - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 920,712 lots, up 5,834 lots; the sell order volume is 1,034,431 lots, down 2,973 lots; the net buy order volume is - 113,719 lots, up 8,807 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of ethylene - based PVC in East China and South China are 5040 yuan/ton (unchanged) and 4905 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively; the prices of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China and South China are 4721.92 yuan/ton (down 8.08 yuan) and 4801.88 yuan/ton (down 22.5 yuan) respectively [3]. - The CIF prices of PVC in China, Southeast Asia, and the FOB price in Northwest Europe are 710 dollars/ton, 670 dollars/ton, and 690 dollars/ton respectively, all unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central China, North China, and Northwest China are 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), 2573.33 yuan/ton (down 16.67 yuan), and 2373 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan) respectively [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The middle - prices of VCM CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 503 dollars/ton (down 18 dollars) and 539 dollars/ton (down 9 dollars) respectively; the middle - prices of EDC CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 189 dollars/ton (up 8 dollars) and 201 dollars/ton (up 12 dollars) respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly overall PVC operating rate is 76.02%, down 1.59%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.95%, and the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is down 6.64% [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 772,500 tons, up 4,400 tons; the social inventory of ethylene - based PVC is 521,900 tons, up 13,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The total social inventory of PVC in East China is 463,600 tons, up 13,400 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 58,300 tons, up 500 tons [3]. - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26; the cumulative new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters; the cumulative real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters; the cumulative real - estate development investment is 281.0593 billion yuan, up 36.3043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.2%, down 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.08%, unchanged [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of PVC is 14.53%, down 0.41%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.54%, down 0.39% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 1, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, with the price ranging from 4650 to 4740 yuan/ton [3]. - From August 23 to 29, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59% [3]. - As of August 28, the social inventory of PVC increased by 5.10% month - on - month to 896,300 tons. Last week, PVC production decreased by 2.05% to 455,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.59% to 76.02%. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 42.6%, among which the pipe operating rate remained stable at 33.61%, and the profile operating rate increased by 4.95% to 42.6% [3].

下游行业开工负荷预计小幅调整，目前下游利润偏低、库存偏高仍抑制苯乙烯需求端增长。短期来看供需 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 矛盾难有改善，库存压力持续偏高。成本方面，全球原油供需偏弱，俄乌和谈持续推进，只是短期中东地 免责声明 缘恶化对油价仍有一定支撑。短期盘面趋势偏弱，技术上EB2510关注6800附近支撑。 苯乙烯产业日报 2025-09-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7013 392772 | -71 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 268617 7036 | 36043 -71 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | | 21811 11月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 手) | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the range estimated to be around 5950 - 6100 yuan/ton. The short - term supply - demand contradiction intensifies, and the expectation of spot price decline is clear. The supply and cost are weak, and the global crude oil supply - demand is weak, although short - term Middle East geopolitical deterioration still supports oil prices to some extent [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 6010 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the main settlement price is 6002 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan. The main trading volume is 7664 lots, up 2344 lots; the main open interest is 13278 lots, down 140 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China are 5930 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 6000 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 5955 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi are 6050 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan) and 5840 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The FOB middle price of pure benzene in South Korea is 724 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; the CFR middle price of pure benzene in China is 739.5 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 68.1 dollars/barrel, up 0.57 dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan is 597.38 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 45.19 tons, up 0.11 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 13.8 tons, down 0.6 tons. The production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.07%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41%; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1%; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2% [2]. Industry News - As of September 1st, the commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu is 14.9 tons, up 7.97% month - on - month and 119.12% year - on - year. From August 22nd to 28th, the profit of petroleum benzene is 671 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton month - on - month [2]. - BZ2603 fell and then rebounded, closing at 6010 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, domestic petroleum benzene plants mainly operated stably, with the capacity utilization rate up 0.19% to 79.18%; some hydrogenated benzene plants reduced loads or stopped production, with the capacity utilization rate down 1.57% to 56.12%. On the demand side, the operating rates of pure benzene downstream decreased to varying degrees, with the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream down 1.46% to 76.96%. The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased 4.17% to 13.8 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the inventory is expected to maintain a destocking trend. The cost is affected by the weak global oil supply - demand and the ongoing Russia - Ukraine peace talks, while the short - term deterioration of the Middle East geopolitical situation still supports oil prices. Technically, L2601 should pay attention to the support around 7200 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) is 7270, down 17; 1 - month contract is 7270, down 17; 5 - month contract is 7276, down 23; 9 - month contract is 7204, down 26. The 9 - 1 spread is - 66, down 9. The volume is 324382 hands, up 41667; the open interest is 468822 hands, up 28457. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30386 hands, down 8401 [2]. Spot Market - LLDPE(7042) average price in North China is 7300.87 yuan/ton, down 17.83; in East China is 7384.76 yuan/ton, down 0.95. The basis is 13.87, up 53.17 [2]. Upstream Situation - FOB: middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 64.19 dollars/barrel, up 0.44; CFR: middle price of naphtha in Japan is 597.38 dollars/ton, up 3.5. The middle price of ethylene CFR Southeast Asia is 831 dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Northeast Asia is 841 dollars/ton, down 2 [2]. Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 78.68%, down 0.04 [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 49.56%, down 0.29; of PE pipes is 30.17%, down 0.5; of PE agricultural film is 17.46%, up 2.93 [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 5.85%, down 0.14; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.47%, up 0.08. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.35%, up 0.01; of at - the - money call options is 9.36%, up 0.03 [2]. Industry News - From August 22nd to 28th, China's polyethylene production was 61.78 million tons, down 0.50% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.72%, down 0.04 percentage points. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.3%. As of August 27th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 42.70 million tons, down 14.92%; as of August 22nd, the social inventory was 56.20 million tons, up 0.99% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is expected to tighten as more chlor - alkali plants are scheduled for maintenance in September, and the capacity utilization rate is predicted to continue to decline [1]. - Alumina industry's strong profit and production intention support caustic soda demand, and non - aluminum demand has a seasonal increase with some idle plants restarting [1]. - Shandong's liquid caustic soda inventory pressure is low. Spot prices have room to rise due to improved supply - demand. Future production expectations will still suppress far - month contract prices, and near - month contracts are expected to be stronger than far - month contracts [1]. - Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance around 2760 for SH2601 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2735 yuan/ton, the 1 - month contract closing price is 2735 yuan/ton, and the 5 - month contract closing price is 2794 yuan/ton [1]. - The net position of the top 20 futures is - 4746 lots. The main contract trading volume is 672088 lots, and the main contract position is 129563 lots [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 910 yuan/ton. Shandong's 32% caustic soda converted to 100% price is 2718.75 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 16 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton, and the price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton [1]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 400 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is - 200 yuan/ton [1]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13040 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3150 yuan/ton [1]. - From August 21st to 28th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8% [1]. 3.6 Industry News - As of August 28th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 379,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.25% and a year - on - year increase of 28.84% [1]. - SH2601 rose 2.82% to close at 2735 yuan/ton. Last week, two plants in Central China had short - term shutdowns, and one in Central China and two in the Northwest restarted. The caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.8% week - on - week to 82.4% [1]. - Last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.2% week - on - week to 85.58%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.2% week - on - week to 86.02%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 0.87% week - on - week to 64.73% [1]. - Last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 4.25% week - on - week to 379,600 tons, showing significant destocking [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The production of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has increased due to the restart of some devices and the increase in the load of private enterprises. The supply is expected to increase slightly this week, and the pressure on spot sales remains. The inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises is expected to rise slightly. On the demand side, the operation of semi - steel tire enterprises is generally stable, but some enterprises' maintenance has affected the overall capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire enterprises continue the previous production - control state, and some enterprises' maintenance plans at the beginning of this month may still affect the short - term capacity utilization rate. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11670 - 12200 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11895 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 33170, down 2323; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2670 tons, up 180 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in different regions remains unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 50 yuan/ton, and the other basis is 130 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 68.12 dollars/barrel, down 0.5 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 64.01 dollars/barrel, down 0.59 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 597.38 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 840 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton; the price of butadiene CFR China is 1095 dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9550 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, down 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 67.91%, down 0.24 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 24000 tons, down 3300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 49.57%, up 0.44 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 12.92 million tons, up 0.67 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 75.85%, up 6.7 percentage points; the production profit is - 478 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 3.17 million tons, up 0.11 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25100 tons, up 1900 tons; the trader's inventory is 6620 tons, down 790 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.77%, down 0.36 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic full - steel tires is 63.84%, down 0.92 percentage points; the monthly output of full - steel tires is 12750000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56970000 pieces; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong is 39.22 days, down 0.54 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 46.14 days, down 0.91 days [2]. Industry News - As of August 28, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 3.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.63%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points. In August 2025, the output of cis - butadiene rubber in China is 13.57 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach, with a focus on the price range of 271,000 - 277,000 yuan/ton. Currently, the tin market has high social inventory, slow demand recovery, and a weakening bullish sentiment. Technically, attention should be paid to the MA10 support [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 273,240 yuan/ton, down 5,410 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract is down 220 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 34,950 US dollars/ton, up 125 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 35,983 lots, down 10,315 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 2,826 lots, down 2,484 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,010 tons, up 115 tons, and the LME tin cancellation warrant is 230 tons, up 120 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,566 tons, up 75 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant is 7,215 tons, down 58 tons [3]. b. Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 272,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 272,430 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 740 yuan/ton, up 5,010 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 175 US dollars/ton, up 53 US dollars [3]. c. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 260,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 264,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin concentrates from Antaike remain unchanged at 10,500 yuan/ton and 6,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. e. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 177,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. f. Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4, the new order index rose to 49.5, and the non - manufacturing sector accelerated its expansion. The US core PCE price index in July rebounded to 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The Wa State in Myanmar restarted the mining license approval, but actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. The State Council executive meeting studied the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in some regions across the country [3]. g. View Summary - On the smelting side, the output increase in July was affected by factors such as enterprise复产 and intermediate product clearance. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period, with slow order recovery and little overall demand increase. Recently, social inventory has remained high, and tin downstream is cautious about purchasing after price increases. The spot premium has fallen to 0 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has increased. LME inventory has rebounded, but the spot premium has risen [3].