1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November, economic indicators may continue to decline, putting slight pressure on the fundamentals and supporting the bond market. However, the central bank's Treasury bond trading volume in November was significantly lower than market expectations. Considering the continuous increase in MLF and outright repo operations, the market liquidity gap is small, and the need to supplement long - term liquidity through direct Treasury bond trading is not urgent. In this context, market sentiment is weak, and Treasury bond futures prices have fallen to the level before the central bank announced bond purchases in October, and may continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.35%, 0.24%, 0.05%, and 1.04% respectively, while their trading volumes increased to 69,656, 34,142, 15,568, and 113,661 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Most of the spreads between different contracts showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2] - **Futures Positions**: T and TF main contract positions decreased, while TS and TL main contract positions increased. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS decreased, while that of TL increased [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Net Prices**: The net prices of most CTD bonds decreased, except for 250017.IB(2y) which increased slightly [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: Yields of 1y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds increased by 0.35bp, 0bp, 0.10bp, and 0.15bp respectively, while the 3y yield decreased by 0.40bp [2] 3.3 Short - term Interest Rates - Short - term interest rates such as silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates, as well as Shibor overnight and 7 - day rates, showed different degrees of increase or decrease [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - In November, the central bank achieved a net capital injection through various tools, including a net injection of 500 billion yuan in open - market Treasury bond trading, 254 billion yuan in PSL, 1150 billion yuan in other structural monetary policy tools, and 1000 billion yuan in MLF, despite a net withdrawal in 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [2] 3.5 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission encourages private enterprises to seize investment opportunities, and the Ministry of Commerce promotes the construction of new consumption scenarios [2] 3.6 Economic Indicators - **Domestic**: In November, the manufacturing PMI slightly recovered to 49.2%, but the composite PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time this year. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and indicators such as social retail sales, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed different trends [2] - **Overseas**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2, and the ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in November, increasing the risk of a decline in the labor market and solidifying the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - On December 4th at 21:30, pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week; on December 5th at 23:00, pay attention to the US core PCE price index for September [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the shock correction of the precious metal market may continue due to some long - profit - taking funds leaving the market after the previous strong rally driven by interest - rate cut expectations. In the long term, platinum prices may maintain strong resilience supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, structural supply - demand deficits, the continuous progress of "platinum replacing palladium", and long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium demand faces significant downward pressure during the "platinum replacing palladium" process in the gasoline purification catalyst field, and the palladium market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and the subsequent catch - up rally of palladium prices is expected to continue [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 439.65 yuan/gram, down 2.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 379.25 yuan/gram, down 2.70 yuan. The position of the platinum main contract was 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the position of the palladium main contract was 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 428.00 yuan, up 1.00 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price was 372.00 yuan, down 2.50 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 11.65 yuan/gram, up 3.75 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 7.25 yuan/gram, up 0.20 yuan [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - The CFTC non - commercial long positions of platinum were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; those of palladium were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. Macro Data - The US dollar index was 98.87, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.82%, down 0.03%. The VIX volatility index was 16.08, down 0.51 [2]. Industry News - The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high. The new order growth declined from a one - year high, and the payment price index dropped to a seven - month low. The employment index rose to a six - month high. The US ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in November, against an expected increase of 10,000. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11%. The US has invited the Ukrainian delegation to the US for peace - negotiation consultations. The platinum and palladium main contracts fluctuated weakly during the session, with the London platinum spot price significantly corrected and the London palladium spot price relatively resilient [2]. Key Points to Watch - On December 4th at 20:30, the number of Challenger corporate layoffs in the US in November; at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29th; the US PCE personal consumption expenditure data for September (time to be determined) [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the precious metals industry. 2. Core View The precious metals market was previously boosted by interest rate cut expectations, leading to some long - position profit - taking and causing the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver to oscillate and correct, with increased intraday volatility. Silver continues its strong trend supported by the tight spot market, and the squeeze trading may not ease quickly in the short term. The macro data shows a mixed picture of the US economy, strengthening the narrative of a weakening labor market. Interest rate futures indicate an 89% probability of a Fed rate cut in December. The macro expectation of rate cuts continues to be positive for the gold and silver markets. In the short term, precious metals may maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend after the Fed confirms the rate - cut tone, but short - term correction risks should be noted. The London gold price has a resistance level of $4300 per ounce and a support level of $4100 per ounce; the London silver price has a resistance level of $59 per ounce and a support level of $54 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 953.42 yuan/gram, down 3.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 13424 yuan/kg, down 158 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 197,638 hands, down 161 hands; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 27,706 hands, down 3818 hands [2]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai gold main contract was 310,489 hands, up 10393 hands; the trading volume of the Shanghai silver main contract was 2,280,887 hands, down 383516 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 90870 kg, down 3 kg; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver was 654,098 kg, up 27465 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 949.32 yuan/gram, down 0.74 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 13,705 yuan/kg, up 13 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.10 yuan/gram, up 2.54 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 281 yuan/kg, up 171 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1046.58 tons, down 1.71 tons; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,998.55 tons, up 135.40 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 176609 contracts, down 27307 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 37,259 contracts, down 5922 contracts [2]. - **Supply**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total quarterly demand for gold was 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.87, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.82%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 16.08, down 0.51; the CBOE gold volatility index was 21.96, down 0.53 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.63, up 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 72.14, down 1.24 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US ISM Services PMI in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high. New order growth declined from a one - year high, the payment price index dropped to a seven - month low, and the employment index rose to a six - month high. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, far below expectations [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in December is 89%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 64.8%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 7.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 27.6% [2]. - The US has invited the Ukrainian delegation to the US for peace - negotiation consultations. The US believes the Moscow talks between the US and Russia have "positive significance" for the peace process [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - US Challenger job cuts in November on December 4 at 20:30 - US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 on December 4 at 21:30 - US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 4, 2025, the SM2603 contract was reported at 5,796, up 0.69%, with Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot at 5,520. The EU will ban Russian natural gas imports from autumn 2027. Fundamentally, inventory is rising fast, production is slightly falling, and inventory has risen for 9 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 87,000 tons, and iron - water demand is seasonally falling. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 582 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is 380 yuan/ton. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term trend of bottom rebound and volatile operation [2]. - On December 4, 2025, the SF2603 contract was reported at 5,546, up 1.65%, with Ningxia silicon - iron spot at 5,250, up 50 yuan/ton. From January to November, consumer goods trade - in drove related sales over 2.5 trillion yuan. Market transactions are mainly for end - user rigid demand restocking, and inventory continues to decline this period. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 270 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 565 yuan/ton. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term trend of bottom rebound and volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,724元/吨，环比上涨2元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,446元/吨，环比下跌2元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为634,165手，环比增加6,439手；SF期货合约持仓量为456,023手，环比减少26,448手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 35,230手，环比减少8,566手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 30,529手，环比减少9,615手 [2]. - SM5 - 1月合约价差为50元/吨，环比上涨2元；SF5 - 1月合约价差为38元/吨，环比上涨24元 [2]. - SM仓单为21,116张，环比增加5,265张；SF仓单为13,235张，环比增加1,980张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古、贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格均为5,520元/吨，环比无变化；云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,550元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,300元/吨，环比上涨50元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,180元/吨，环比上涨30元；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,250元/吨，环比上涨50元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5,499元/吨，环比下跌16.75元；SF主力合约基差为 - 196元/吨，环比上涨52元；SM主力合约基差为 - 204元/吨，环比下跌2元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为32元/吨度，环比无变化；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,250元/吨，环比无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为870元/吨，环比下跌10元 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为438.3万吨，环比增加8.7万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为38.09%，环比下降1.04个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为33.41%，环比下降0.40个百分点 [2]. - 锰硅供应为194,775吨，环比减少2,135吨；硅铁供应为107,200吨，环比减少1,100吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为368,000吨，环比增加5,000吨；硅铁厂家库存为71,830吨，环比减少1,220吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.84天，环比增加0.14天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.80天，环比增加0.13天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为121,727吨，环比增加320吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19,660吨，环比增加117吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.07%，环比下降1.10个百分点；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为87.96%，环比下降0.60个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为7,199.7万吨，环比减少149.31万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 国务院总理李强指出新型城镇化是扩大内需等的重要载体，“十五五”时期发展空间大 [2]. - 经合组织称G20经济体通胀率将从2025年的3.4%降至2027年的2.5%，多数经济体通胀将在2027年年中回归目标水平，OECD经济体公共债务率预计2027年达113%，美国国债规模已突破36万亿美元 [2]. - 欧盟将从2027年秋季开始全面禁止进口俄罗斯天然气 [2]. - 1 - 11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次，其中汽车以旧换新超1120万辆，家电以旧换新超12844万台 [2].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 4, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Daily Report on the Pig Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Supply is at a relatively high level and difficult to reverse in the short - term, and supply and demand are in a game stage, so prices will remain under pressure overall. Although winter is the peak consumption season for pork, with some regional pickling and sausage - making activities starting sporadically and overall demand improving, the supply pressure persists. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 11,385 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 90,529 lots, down 1,229 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 85 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 42,823 lots, down 1,872 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Prices - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 11,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Jilin Siping is 10,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Guangdong Yunfu is 12,200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The main live pig basis is - 185 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly live pig inventory is 43,680 million heads, an increase of 1,233 million heads. The inventory of breeding sows is 3,990 million heads, up 0.5%. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,060 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The corn spot price is 2,348.63 yuan/ton, up 8.73 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 917.37, up 3.58. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of feed is 29.57 million tons, down 1.717 million tons. The weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,449 yuan/head, down 4 yuan. The weekly breeding profit for purchased piglets is - 248.82 yuan/head, down 14.19 yuan, and for self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 147.99 yuan/head, down 12.09 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 70,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The weekly average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 13.9 yuan/kg (unchanged). [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,834 million heads, an increase of 250 million heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail sales is 519.9 billion yuan, an increase of 69.04 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Industry News - On December 4, the daily slaughter volume of key provincial sample slaughtering enterprises was 155,535 heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.12%. To meet the annual output target, large - scale farms are expected to continue normal slaughter, and the supply of large pigs from small - scale farmers will increase, so the supply side still faces pressure. [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - The live pig 2601 contract fell 0.83%, and the live pig 2603 contract fell 0.44%, both under pressure from the moving average system. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of breeders and pickling activities. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic sugar market has digested previous negative factors, and the pessimistic sentiment has eased. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate in the future. The delayed start of sugar cane pressing in Guangxi and the faster pressing progress in Yunnan compared to the same period last year, along with the entry of low - priced new sugar from Guangxi into the market, have affected the price of Yunnan sugar. However, the relatively stable prices of processed sugar and beet sugar provide some support for the sugar price in Guangxi [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar decreased by 38 yuan/ton, and the main contract position decreased by 941 hands to 329,240 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 6,915 hands to - 45,977 hands. The number of warehouse receipts was 0, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 183 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 4,106 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 4,152 yuan/ton. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 5,203 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 5,264 yuan/ton. The spot prices of sugar in Yunnan Kunming, Guangxi Nanning, and Guangxi Liuzhou all decreased, with decreases of 30 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area increased by 60 thousand hectares, and the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi increased by 5.24 thousand hectares to 840.33 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production reached 1,116.21 million tons, with a monthly increase of 5.49 million tons. The cumulative sales of cane sugar in Guangxi reached 602.29 million tons, with a monthly increase of 26.66 million tons. The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan was 241.88 million tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil reached 420.5 million tons, with a monthly increase of 95.92 million tons. The monthly sugar import volume was 75 million tons, and the cumulative import volume was 390 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar was 34.39 million tons, and the monthly production of soft drinks was 1,096.2 million tons, a decrease of 495.5 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar decreased by 0.9%. The 20 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.38%, and the 60 - day historical volatility increased by 0.01% [2] Industry News - As of October 21, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 140,401 hands, an increase of 350 hands from the previous week. The long position was 165,348 hands, a decrease of 8,626 hands from the previous week, and the short position was 305,749 hands, a decrease of 8,976 hands from the previous week. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the ICE fell 0.05 cents or 0.30% to settle at 14.93 cents per pound [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - On December 4, the JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1184.0, up 1.94%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was 1390, equivalent to 1170 on the futures market. Coking coal is in a bottom - oscillating state with short - term multi - and short - side fluctuations. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is oscillating [2]. - On December 4, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1651.5, up 1.69%. The first - round price cut of coke in the spot market has been implemented. The demand for coke has decreased with the iron - making output down by 1.60 million tons this period, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 46 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is oscillating [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） was 1091.50, up 21.00; J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） was 1651.50, up 27.00. JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） was 833449.00, down 14909.00; J期货合约持仓量（日，手） was 45213.00, down 1315.00. The net position of the top 20 contracts of coking coal was - 79594.00, up 17706.00; that of coke was - 387.00, down 670.00 [2]. - JM5 - 1月合约价差（日，元/吨） was 92.50, down 1.50; J5 - 1月合约价差（日，元/吨） was 131.00, up 4.00. The coking coal warehouse receipt was 0.00, down 600.00; the coke warehouse receipt was 2070.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal was 1015.00, up 15.00; the price of Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1830.00, unchanged. The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR, USD/wet ton) was 162.00, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1620.00, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1510.00, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1720.00, unchanged. The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1630.00, down 40.00; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1620.00, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00, unchanged. The J主力合约基差 （日，元/吨） was 178.50, down 27.00; the JM主力合约基差（日，元/吨） was 518.50, down 21.00 [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.10 million tons, up 0.50; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 321.40 million tons, up 16.10. The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, unchanged; the monthly output of raw coal was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4174.00 million tons, down 426.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 190.40 million tons, down 0.90. The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 465.00 million tons, up 8.10; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 247.20 million tons, down 6.20 [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1010.30 million tons, down 27.89; the weekly inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 71.76 million tons, up 6.47. The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 801.30 million tons, up 4.22; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 625.52 million tons, up 3.18 [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 13.01 days, up 0.04; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 11.29 days, up 0.24 [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00. The monthly output of coking coal was 4231.51 million tons, up 255.59; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.95%, up 1.24 [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 46.00 yuan/ton, up 27.00. The monthly output of coke was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 81.07%, down 1.10; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.96%, down 0.60. The monthly output of crude steel was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 [2]. Industry News - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic cycle. The OECD predicts that the inflation rate of G20 economies will gradually fall from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.5% in 2027, and the public debt ratio of OECD economies is expected to reach 113% in 2027 [2]. - The EU will completely ban the import of Russian natural gas from the autumn of 2027. From January to November, the trade - in of consumer goods drove the sales of related goods to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. Among them, over 11.2 million cars and over 128.44 million household appliances were traded in [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The processing fee of copper concentrate in the raw material end still operates in the negative range, and the raw material supply remains tight, supporting the copper price cost. After the previous centralized maintenance, smelting capacity may be released again, but the tight supply of raw materials will limit the capacity, so the domestic refined copper supply will only increase slightly. The impact of the consumption off - season is gradually emerging, and the high copper price restrains downstream consumption, leading to cautious downstream purchasing sentiment. The social inventory remains at a medium - low level but may accumulate due to the off - season. The year - end rush of domestic power infrastructure and the year - end sales push of the new energy vehicle industry support the demand to some extent. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.29, up 0.0159 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The overall view is to trade with a light position in a fluctuating market, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 90,980 yuan/ton, up 1770 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,411 dollars/ton, down 76.50 dollars. The spread between adjacent months of the main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 234,570 lots, up 10,586 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 32,233 lots, up 2,696 lots. The LME copper inventory is 162,150 tons, up 350 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 97,930 tons, down 12,673 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of cathode copper is 32,139 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 91,245 yuan/ton, up 2,265 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 91,175 yuan/ton, up 2,090 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48.50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 39.00 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 265 yuan/ton, up 495 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 88.38 dollars/ton, up 19.20 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.75 dollars/kiloton, down 0.43 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 79,350 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 80,050 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 60,990 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 74,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 thousand pieces, down 194,236.10 thousand pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 12.50%, up 1.54%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.56%, down 2.65%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the current month is 17.96%, up 0.0051. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.29, up 0.0159 [2] 3.7 Industry News - From 2022 to 2024, the gap between external debt repayment funds and new financing of developing countries reached 741 billion dollars, the highest in more than 50 years. In 2024, the total external debt of developing countries reached a record 8.9 trillion dollars, and the total interest payment reached a record 415.4 billion dollars. The ADP employment in the US decreased by 32,000 in November, the lowest since March 2023, and the market expected an increase of 10,000. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90%. The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of new - type urbanization, including promoting the urbanization of agricultural transfer population, implementing urban renewal, and promoting the high - quality development of real estate. From January to November this year, the replacement of old consumer goods drove the sales of related goods to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting more than 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 6,584.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and the service trade deficit was 766.37 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 269.39 billion yuan. With the consumption of the fourth batch of 6.9 billion yuan national subsidy funds, more than 20 cities in China have suspended or adjusted the subsidy for car replacement. In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.263 million, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the retail sales of the new energy market were 1.354 million, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the penetration rate of the new energy market was 59.8% [2]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/12/4 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22,060.00 | +120.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,615.00 | -21.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -60.00 | +30.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -68.00 | +12.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 244,457.00 | -4791.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 329,329.00 | -15058.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 48 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The new - season jujube prices in Xinjiang's main producing areas are trending weakly. The acquisition in some areas is completed, and the overall acquisition progress is about 80%. Enterprises purchase a small amount, and small and medium - sized merchants are the main purchasing entities, with Cangzhou merchants being the main purchasing force. Short - term Zhengzhou jujube futures prices may remain weak [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main jujube futures contract is 9030 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 88405 lots, down 2618 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13350 lots, up 2244 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 659, up 35, and the total valid warehouse receipt forecasts are 808, down 12 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of jujube in various regions are mostly stable. For example, the unified - grade jujube price in Kashi is 6.15 yuan/kg, unchanged; the first - grade grey jujube wholesale price in Hebei is 4.25 yuan/jin, unchanged. Only the special - grade jujube price in Hebei increased by 0.01 yuan/kg to 9.76 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 606.9 million tons, an increase of 318.7 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 10,848 tons, an increase of 518 tons. The monthly jujube export volume is 2,205,220 kg, a decrease of 78,451 kg, and the cumulative monthly export volume is 25,753,622 kg, an increase of 2,205,220 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of jujubes of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2981.06 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year jujube production growth rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, trading is mainly in new - season jujubes. After the new - season harvest, jujubes are gradually processed in factories. The price difference of new - season jujubes is large, and the transaction price is weakly stable. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 3 trucks of jujubes arrived, the supply is sufficient, some holders sell at a discount, and the morning trading volume is average [2].