1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation where supply growth may slow down and demand gradually recovers. The supply side has an oversupply and large inventory pressure, while the demand side is expected to increase due to the approaching traditional consumption peak season. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines below the 0 - axis with expanding green bars. The operation suggestion is to trade with a light position in a weak - oscillating manner and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 72,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,940 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 142,837 hands, a decrease of 7,269 hands; the position of the main contract is 348,109 hands, an increase of 8,976 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 640 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 31,197 hands/ton, an increase of 1,310 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 77,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 75,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 4,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,090 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 942 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) remains unchanged at 2,645 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons; the monthly import volume is 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons; the monthly export volume is 366.35 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 48%, a decrease of 4 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, an increase of 4,600 MWh. The prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary materials (811 - type, 622 - power - type, 523 - single - crystal - type) remain unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, an increase of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 51%, a decrease of 1 percentage point. The monthly output of new - energy vehicles is 1,243,000, a decrease of 25,000; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000, a decrease of 67,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.99%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 8,220,000, an increase of 2,286,000; the monthly export volume is 225,000, an increase of 20,000; the cumulative export volume is 1,308,000, an increase of 600,000. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 54.23%, an increase of 1.89 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 57.97%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 279,778, an increase of 24,686; the total put position is 150,923, a decrease of 6,413; the put - call ratio of the total position is 53.94%, a decrease of 7.7343 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.35%, a decrease of 0.0074 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In August, new - energy vehicle brands had good performance. Leapmotor delivered 57,066 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of over 88%; XPeng delivered 37,709 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 168.7% and a month - on - month increase of 2.7%; NIO delivered 31,305 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 55.2%; Xiaomi delivered over 30,000 vehicles. Other brands also had month - on - month growth [2]. - Tianqi Lithium has completed the industrialization preparation for lithium sulfide, a core raw material for next - generation solid - state batteries, and is promoting quality improvement and cost - reduction technology optimization. A 50 - ton lithium sulfide pilot project has started construction in Meishan, Sichuan [2]. - Quanzhou Lvli Technology plans to invest 20 million yuan in a waste lithium - battery recycling and echelon utilization project with an annual processing capacity of 6,000 tons [2]. - In the first half of the year, China's new - energy project investment was about 1.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 32.2%. Wind and photovoltaic investment was 560.4 billion yuan, accounting for 40.8% of the industry share, a year - on - year decrease of 44.4% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The recent strong performance of the precious metals market is driven by factors such as the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, Trump's pressure on Fed officials boosting risk - aversion sentiment, and the trading sentiment of the gold - silver ratio returning to the historical average. However, if the economic resilience is significantly stronger than expected, the gold price may have a phased correction, but the probability of a sharp decline is low. Technically, both gold and silver are in the over - bought zone and may need short - term adjustment [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Closing Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 804.32 yuan/gram, up 3.76; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract increased by 49 yuan/kilogram [2] - **Position**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 138,624 hands, down 2,067; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract decreased by 12,097 hands. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 176,304 hands, up 11,434; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract increased by 3,513 hands [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 40,191 kilograms, up 447; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver increased by 8,001 kilograms [2] Spot Market - **Spot Price**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 802 yuan/gram, up 6.62; the silver spot price increased by 165 yuan/kilogram [2] - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 2.32 yuan/gram, up 2.86; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract increased by 116 yuan/kilogram [2] Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings were 977.68 tons, up 9.74; the silver ETF holdings decreased by 22.59 tons [2] - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net position was 214,311 contracts, up 1,721; the silver CTFC non - commercial net position decreased by 83 contracts [2] - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total annual supply of silver decreased by 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83; the total annual global demand for silver decreased by 47.4 million ounces [2] Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 9.2%, up 0.98; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold increased by 0.7% [2] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.18%, up 3.9; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 20.19%, up 3.91 [2] Industry News - Ray Dalio said that international investors are shifting from US Treasuries to gold, and the US economy is on the verge of a debt crisis. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 10.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 4.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 47.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 47.9%. Spot gold broke through $3,500, and domestic gold jewelry prices increased significantly [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoint - The current egg supply is abundant due to high laying - hen inventory, large pressure from newly - laying hens, and continuous cold - storage egg release. Although egg consumption has slightly increased due to Mid - Autumn Festival stocking and school openings, it is still weak year - on - year. Adequate inventory in all links and egg quality issues in some areas result in short - term demand having weak support for prices, with the spot price at the lowest level of the same period this year. The near - term futures price generally maintains a weak trend [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 2959 yuan/500 kilograms, up 38 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 37360 lots, up 10321 lots; the egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 65 yuan/500 kilograms, down 18 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 441830 lots, down 42580 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The egg spot price is 3.12 yuan/jin, unchanged; the basis (spot - futures) is 156 yuan/500 kilograms, down 34 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 113.18 (2015 = 100), up 1.27; the national culled laying - hen index is 99.2 (2015 = 100), down 4.89; the average price of egg - laying chicks in the main producing areas is 3 yuan/chick, down 0.2 yuan; the national new - chick index is 78.4 (2015 = 100), up 2.33; the average price of egg - laying chicken compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, unchanged; the egg - laying chicken breeding profit is - 0.21 yuan/chicken, down 0.06 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 9.66 yuan/kg, down 0.44 yuan; the culling age of chickens nationwide is 512 days, up 11 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.8 yuan/kg, down 0.21 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.02 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.44 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.12 days, down 0.04 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.06 days, up 0.04 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly egg consumption in the sales areas is 7674 tons, up 235 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong is 6.12 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Hebei is 6.22 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Guangdong is 6.40 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Beijing is 6.90 yuan/kg, unchanged. The current laying - hen inventory is high, and the pressure from newly - laying hens is large, with sufficient egg supply [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading商报盘积极性 is good, but the buyer's inquiry sentiment is average. The mainstream futures positions reduce short positions and increase long positions, supporting the rebound of ore prices. The short - term market may still fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 771.50 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan; the position volume is 453,002 hands, down 948 hands. The I 1 - 5 contract spread is 21.5 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 12,392 hands, up 8,847 hands. The DCE warrant of I is 1,900 hands, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 102.4 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 0.75 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 834 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan; the price of 60.8% Macfayden powder ore is 817 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special powder ore at Jingtang Port is 722 yuan/dry ton, up 4 yuan. The basis of the I main contract is 46 yuan, down 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index is 101.85 US dollars/ton (previous day), down 1.75 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port is 3.40, down 0.08. The estimated import cost is 833 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume is 3,556.80 million tons (weekly), up 241.00 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,645.00 million tons (weekly), up 182.70 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 14,388.02 million tons (weekly), down 56.18 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills is 9,007.19 million tons (weekly), down 58.28 million tons. The iron ore import volume is 10,462.00 million tons (monthly), down 133.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 18 days (weekly), unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines is 39.22 million tons (weekly), down 0.57 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 62.45% (weekly), down 0.51%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 32.71 million tons (weekly), down 0.24 million tons. The BDI index is 2,024.00, down 1.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 24.58 US dollars/ton, up 0.07 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.21 US dollars/ton, up 0.10 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.18% (weekly), down 0.16%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.00% (weekly), down 0.27%. The domestic crude steel output is 7,966 million tons (monthly), down 353 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.39% (daily), down 0.18%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.17% (daily), up 0.05%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.18% (daily), down 0.73%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.65% (daily), up 0.22% [2] Industry News - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 14,376.11 million tons, down 12.57 million tons from last Monday; the total inventory at 45 ports is 13,776.51 million tons, down 22.17 million tons. From August 25th to August 31st, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,645.0 million tons, an increase of 182.7 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2,526.0 million tons, an increase of 132.7 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports is 1,300.8 million tons, an increase of 147.8 million tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where supply slows down and demand gradually recovers, and the industry outlook is positive. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 79,660 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,865 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 60 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 180,065 lots, down 579 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 12,236 lots, up 6,550 lots. The LME copper inventory was 158,875 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper was 79,748 tons, down 1,950 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of cathode copper was 19,501 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 80,160 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 80,105 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 56.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 500 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 86.27 dollars/ton, down 6.01 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 41.48 dollars/thousand tons, down 0.33 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 70,440 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 71,140 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 127 million tons, down 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 55,640 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,250 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 53,579.77 billion yuan, up 6,922.21 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,689,220.7 million pieces, up 183,435.3 million pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 7.25%, up 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.00%, down 0.10%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 11.25%, up 0.0156%; the ratio of call to put options at the money was 1.35, up 0.0981 [2] Industry News - The final value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose to a more than three - year high of 50.7 from 49.8 in July, higher than the preliminary value of 50.5, and expanded for the first time since mid - 2022. The "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans" was officially implemented on September 1st. ECB President Lagarde said that the 2% inflation target has been achieved. New energy vehicle brands announced their August "report cards", with many brands achieving significant growth. Chinese President Xi Jinping made a keynote speech at the 25th meeting of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC industry are bearish, with the supply expected to increase in the medium - long term while domestic demand is weak due to the poor performance of the real - estate market and insufficient domestic product orders. The anti - dumping policy from India also adds pressure. However, the price is at a historically low level, which limits the downside space. The short - term operating range of V2601 is expected to be around 4800 - 4940 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4888 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 751,072 lots, down 16,722 lots; the open interest is 1,206,310 lots, up 6,574 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 125,894 lots, down 12,175 lots [3]. 3.2现货市场 - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4699.23 yuan/ton, down 22.69 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4895 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4791.25 yuan/ton, down 10.62 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2573.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2373 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The VCM CFR Far East middle - price is 503 US dollars/ton, down 18 US dollars/ton; the EDC CFR Far East middle - price is 189 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.02%, down 1.59 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 77.25%, up 0.44 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.95%, down 6.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 52.19 tons, up 1.39 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 2810.593 billion yuan, up 363.043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 8.85%, down 1.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.07%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options is 14.98%, up 0.45 and 0.44 percentage points respectively [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 2, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 decreased by 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 4650 to 4740 yuan/ton. From August 23rd to 29th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. As of August 28th, the PVC social inventory was 896,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.10% [3]. 3.8 Outlook - In the short term, the restart of some devices such as Zhongtai and Formosa Plastics Ningbo is expected to increase production and capacity utilization. In September, a total of 900,000 - ton devices of Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf are planned to be put into production, increasing the long - term supply pressure. Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. India's anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented in September [3].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1746 | 3 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -41 | 0 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 219382 | -892 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -34318 | -2262 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7205 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1730 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1720 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1710 | -20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1710 | 10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1740 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -36 | 7 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 437.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 435 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 60 | 9.9 企业库存(周,万吨) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic production of synthetic rubber has increased due to the restart of most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber devices, and the production in August reached a high level for the year. However, the pressure on production enterprises to sell goods has increased significantly under the game of rising mainstream supply prices of butadiene and cis - butadiene. The inventory of production enterprises increased last week, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly. This week, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the inventory of both production and trading enterprises is expected to rise slightly. [2] - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' devices operated stably last week, but individual enterprises' overhauls dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. All - steel tire enterprises' devices also ran stably, with most continuing the previous production - control state, and individual enterprises' overhauls and production reduction affected the overall capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have overhaul plans at the beginning of this month, which may still drag down the short - term capacity utilization rate. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,670 - 12,200 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 31,283, a decrease of 1,887. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,770 tons, an increase of 100 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different manufacturers in different regions had different changes. The basis of synthetic rubber was 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was at 68.15 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.03 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was at 64.69 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.68 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan was 596.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.13 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,095 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,575 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 15.11 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate was 67.91%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 24,000 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 49.57%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 12.92 million tons, an increase of 0.67 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 75.85%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.17 million tons, an increase of 0.11 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 25,100 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the trader's inventory was 6,620 tons, a decrease of 790 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.77%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.84%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, an increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, an increase of 1.74 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.22 days, a decrease of 0.54 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.14 days, a decrease of 0.91 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 28, the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.63%. [2] - As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points. [2] - In August 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber output was 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. [2]

免责声明 节奏，近月合约预计强于远月合约。技术上，SH2601关注2600附近支撑与2760附近压力。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 烧碱产业日报 | | | | 2025-09-02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) -70 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 2665 | | | 110334 | -19229 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) -6181 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | -10927 | | | 64 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, domestically, as the new - season corn in the Northeast is approaching the listing period, reserve - rotation corn is continuously put into the market, weakening traders' confidence in price support and accelerating the sale of remaining grains. With poor breeding profits, sluggish feed sales, and low enthusiasm from feed enterprises to purchase old grains, and deep - processing enterprises relying mainly on contract grains, the market trading is relatively light, and prices continue to run weakly. Recently, due to short - covering, corn futures prices have rebounded from the low level [2]. - For corn starch, as previously overhauled enterprises resume work, the operating rate in the corn starch industry has rebounded, increasing supply - side pressure. The overall market trading shows no obvious trend, and the supply - demand pattern is clearly oversupplied with high inventory pressure. Affected by the corn rebound, starch prices have risen in a volatile manner [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2200 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 66 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 948162 lots, the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 75739 lots, the registered warehouse receipt volume is 66608 lots, and the CS - C spread of the main contract is 212 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2505 yuan/ton, the 11 - 1 monthly spread is - 30 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 196158 lots, the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 41054 lots, and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 lots [2]. 3.2 Outer - Disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 420 cents/bushel, the total position is 1456701 lots (weekly), and the non - commercial net long position is - 70940 lots (weekly) [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2363.33 yuan/ton, the fair - market price at Jinzhou Port is 2280 yuan/ton, the CIF price of imported corn is 1929.52 yuan/ton, and the international freight of imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2660 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the main corn starch contract is 155 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main corn contract is 163.33 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 398.93 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively. The predicted sown areas in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 35.12 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. - Corn inventories at southern and northern ports are 770,000 tons and 1.75 million tons respectively, and the deep - processing corn inventory is 2.942 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The imported corn volume is 60,000 tons, and the exported corn starch volume is 15,940 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly feed production is 2.8273 million tons, the sample feed corn inventory days are 28.13 days, the deep - processing corn consumption is 1.1402 million tons, the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 42.87%, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.01% [2]. - The corn starch processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 122 yuan/ton, - 51 yuan/ton, and - 81 yuan/ton respectively [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn are 7.46% and 6.32% respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call options and at - the - money put options of corn are 10.02% and 10.02% respectively [2]. 3.8 Industry News - As of August 28, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season has reached 6.7%, compared with 3.2% a week ago and 7.7% in the same period last year [2]. - As of August 28, the harvesting of the second - season corn in Brazil in the 2024/2025 season has ended, 2 percentage points higher than the 98% a week ago, and the harvesting was also completed in the same period last year [2]. - Pro Farmer's final yield forecast shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 1.6204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, which is lower than the USDA's August forecast [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Watch - Monitor the weekly corn consumption data from Mysteel and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3].