1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The butadiene rubber market this week was mainly affected by the news of natural rubber and butadiene. With no clear positive signs in the supply - demand fundamentals, downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance. The inventory of sample producers increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly. The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,250 - 10,700 in the short term [2]. - As the production of previously overhauled enterprises gradually resumes to normal levels, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased last week. However, the shipment pace of each tire enterprise was slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 10,515 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 105 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 27,454, a week - on - week decrease of 2,743; the 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 4,340 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 10,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 10,700 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton [2]. - Brent crude oil was 63.75 US dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.49 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 60.08 US dollars/barrel; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 745 US dollars/ton; Naphtha CFR Japan was 559.75 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 850 US dollars/ton; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong was 7,200 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.94 million tons/week, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 41,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 56.11%, a week - on - week increase of 1.12 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 73.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.34 percentage points; the production profit of butadiene rubber was 484 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%; the producer inventory of butadiene rubber was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 200 tons; the trader inventory of butadiene rubber was 5,230 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 310 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 70.92%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.51 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 44.95 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. The production of overhauled sample enterprises gradually resumed during the week, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In November, the domestic output of butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points [2]. - As of December 4, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. Some tight - supply resources were replenished this week, but downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate narrowing compared to the previous period. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level, rubber prices are fluctuating downward, tire companies are stocking up moderately at low prices according to their rigid needs, and the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved. The warehouse outbound volume has increased slightly month - on - month, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. In terms of demand, as the production of the previously overhauled enterprises gradually returns to the normal level, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased month - on - month, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise is slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,200 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,065 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 5; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,080 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 35; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20. The holding volume of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 123,959 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,189; the holding volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 29,787 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,914. The net holding of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 29,217, with a month - on - month decrease of 20; the net holding of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,229, with a month - on - month increase of 460. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 46,030 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 500; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 57,154 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 201 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5. The price of Thai RMB - denominated mixed rubber is 14,380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30; the price of Malaysian RMB - denominated mixed rubber is 14,330 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 365 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 685 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,806 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 741 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 54 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 59 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.4; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.5; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lumps) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 125 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.2; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 43.2 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 70.2. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 61,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.5% (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.92% (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 1.73 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.51 days (weekly), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 44.95 days (weekly), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.28 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 13.48% (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 0.28 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 16.55% (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.34% (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.33% (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, with an increase rate of 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase rate of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase rate of 1.38%. As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market has sufficient supply as the inspection volume of new cotton has exceeded 4.6 million tons and port cotton stocks remain high. The import quota for this year is almost used up, and the export volume of RMB is limited, resulting in more imports than exports at cotton ports. The inventory at major import cotton ports has reached a five - month high. - The downstream demand is relatively differentiated. The demand for high - count yarn has improved, which boosts the cotton market to some extent. Overall, although there is a marginal improvement in demand, the supply is still abundant, limiting the rebound of cotton prices. Attention should be paid to new driving factors in the later stage. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,980 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton). - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 130,475 hands (up 300 hands), and cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 318 hands (up 39 hands). - Cotton main contract positions are 489,062 hands (down 8,717 hands), and cotton yarn main contract positions are 16,063 hands (up 745 hands). - Cotton warehouse receipts are 2,753 sheets (up 44 sheets), and cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 13 sheets (up 1 sheet). - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,009 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton), and China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,800 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). [2] 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,853 yuan/ton (down 67 yuan/ton), and the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,053 yuan/ton (up 74 yuan/ton). - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tax) is 13,880 yuan/ton (down 48 yuan/ton), and the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,227 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton). [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares (up 48.3 thousand hectares), and the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons (up 0.54 million tons). [2] Industrial Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,791 yuan/ton (up 43 yuan/ton), and the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons (up 65,000 tons). - The monthly import volume of cotton is 90,000 tons (down 10,000 tons), and the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 140,000 tons (up 10,000 tons). - The daily profit of imported cotton is 1,142 yuan/ton (up 72 yuan/ton), and the national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.9306 million tons (up 1.9089 million tons). [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 26.12 days (up 1.27 days), and the inventory days of grey cloth are 31.97 days (up 0.85 days). - The monthly output of cloth is 2.62 billion meters (down 0.18 billion meters), and the monthly output of yarn is 2.001 million tons (down 0.073 million tons). - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 110,034,804,300 US dollars (down 14,497,665,700 US dollars), and the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 112,584,189,200 US dollars (down 7,080,970,800 US dollars). [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 7.42% (down 4.92%), and the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 7.42% (down 4.92%). - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.78% (up 0.07%), and the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.64% (up 0.01%). [2] Industry News - The national commercial inventory of cotton is increasing. As of December 5, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 4.465 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 285,600 tons (a 6.83% increase). Among them, the commercial inventory of cotton in Xinjiang is 3.8859 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 269,500 tons (a 7.45% increase), and the commercial inventory of cotton in the inland area is 191,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,800 tons (a 4.82% increase). - According to the USDA report, from October 17 - 23, 2025, the net export signing volume of US upland cotton for the 2025/26 season is 30,100 tons, a 24.4% decrease from the previous week and a 22.9% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The shipment volume of US upland cotton for the 2025/26 season is 39,600 tons, a 9.4% increase from the previous week and a 21.5% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. [2]

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/12/8 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,291 | -29↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1078676 | +11932↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -29,899 | +31899↑ HC1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -1 | +7↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报( ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, methanol port inventories decreased slightly. This week, with a high volume of unplanned foreign vessels expected to arrive and a potential shutdown of an olefin plant in East China, import demand may weaken, and port methanol inventories are expected to increase. The actual situation depends on the unloading of foreign vessels [2]. - Last week, the load of Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant increased, leading to an overall rise in the olefin industry's operation rate. However, Ningbo Fude is expected to undergo maintenance, which may cause the overall operation rate to decline [2]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2030 - 2130 in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2089 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the 1 - 5 spread is - 88 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest is 802,701 lots, a decrease of 69,391 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 164,139 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts is 8,722, an increase of 1,146 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2070 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2007.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The East - Northwest price difference is 67.5 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 19 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 241 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 76 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 5.34 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 93.88 tons, an increase of 0.13 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 41.06 tons, a decrease of 1.54 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit is 8.73 yuan/ton, down 1.29 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, an increase of 18.57 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 361,500 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons; the methanol enterprise operation rate is 89.09%, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operation rate is 42.91%, down 0.07%; the dimethyl ether operation rate is 7.88%, unchanged [2]. - The acetic acid operation rate is 69.62%, down 3.44%; the MTBE operation rate is 69.97%, unchanged [2]. - The olefin operation rate is 90.82%, up 0.89%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 792 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.19%, up 0.82%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.25%, up 0.2% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.93%, up 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.92%, up 0.33% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of December 3, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.15 tons, a decrease of 1.22 tons from the previous period, a 3.26% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.97 tons, an increase of 0.90 tons from the previous period, a 3.90% increase [2]. - As of December 3, the total methanol port inventory in China was 134.94 tons, a decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous data. East China saw inventory accumulation, while South China saw inventory reduction [2]. - As of December 4, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 91.78%, a 0.88% increase from the previous period. The load of Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant increased, leading to an overall rise in the industry's operation rate [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1093.50 | -46.50↓ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1537.00 | -48.00↓ | | | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 844614.00 | -8806.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 47647.00 | +2576.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -93723.00 | +17057.00↑ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -380.00 | +133.00↑ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 91.00 | +7.00↑ J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 153.50 | +4.50↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 300.00 | +300.00↑ 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 2070.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 988.00 | 0.00 唐山一级冶金 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term inventory of urea enterprises is expected to continue to decline slightly due to supply reduction from some gas - head enterprises and the advancement of downstream reserve demand. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1680 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - The operating rate of compound fertilizer has increased month - on - month, and enterprises are continuing to produce winter - storage fertilizers. The short - term capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to show a narrow increase. With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand is gradually increasing [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1646 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 64 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 167,074 lots, down 33,279 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 9,772, up 7,116; the exchange warehouse receipts are 11,526, up 1,041 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Anhui are unchanged, the price in Jiangsu is up 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong is down 30 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is 44 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. - FOB Baltic is 352.5 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; FOB China main port is 391.5 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; enterprise inventory is 129.05 million tons, down 7.34 million tons. The enterprise operating rate is 81.83%, down 1.88%; the daily output is 197,900 tons, down 4,500 tons [2]. - The export volume is 1.2 billion tons, down 17%; the current monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 40.53%, up 3.47%; the operating rate of melamine is 61.66%, up 0.86%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 56 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 29 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan [2]. - The current monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 billion tons, up 0.7538 billion tons; the current weekly output of melamine is 32,100 tons, up 600 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 3, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 129.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.38%. As of December 4, the port inventory was 10.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5% [2]. - As of December 4, the production of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3851 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%; the capacity utilization rate was 81.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88% [2].

Report Summary - **Report Date**: December 8, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Shanghai Copper Industry Daily Report - **Researcher**: Chen Sijia [3] - **Futures Qualification Number**: F03118799 [3] - **Investment Consultation Certificate Number**: Z0022803 [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The processing fee index of copper concentrate declined again, increasing concerns about tight copper supply. The supply of refined copper in China maintained a growth trend, while short - term high copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment. However, year - end sales sprints of car manufacturers and power system rush - work provided some demand resilience for Shanghai copper, and social inventory still slightly decreased. The option market sentiment was bullish, and the implied volatility slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 - axis with the initial appearance of a red column. The report suggested light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 92,970 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; LME 3 - month copper was 11,692 dollars/ton, up 71.5 dollars [2] - **Spreads and Positions**: The inter - month spread of the main contract was - 60 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 230,045 lots, down 6,449 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 34,429 lots, up 10,129 lots [2] - **Inventories**: LME copper inventory was 162,550 tons, down 275 tons; SHFE cathode copper inventory was 88,905 tons, down 9,025 tons; SHFE cathode copper warrants were 29,956 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - **Prices**: SMM 1 copper spot price was 92,300 yuan/ton, up 715 yuan; Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 92,175 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan [2] - **Premiums**: Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) was 46 dollars/ton, unchanged; Yangshan copper average premium was 41 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars; the basis of the CU main contract was - 670 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan; LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 23.05 dollars/ton, down 27.39 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - **Imports and Fees**: The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.4515 million tons, down 135,600 tons; the copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was - 42.86 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars [2] - **Prices**: Copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi were 82,470 yuan/metal ton, up 730 yuan; in Yunnan, they were 83,170 yuan/metal ton, up 730 yuan; the southern processing fee for blister copper was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - **Production and Imports**: The production of refined copper was 1.204 million tons, down 62,000 tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 427,000 tons, down 13,000 tons [2] - **Inventories and Prices**: Social copper inventory was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 62,440 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 76,450 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan [2] - **By - product Price**: The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of copper products was 2.004 million tons, down 228,000 tons; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,177,000,000 pieces, down 194,236,100 pieces [2] - **Investment**: The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction was 482.434 billion yuan, up 44.627 billion yuan; the cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 7,356.27 billion yuan, up 585.699 billion yuan [2] Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 13.55%, down 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.70%, down 0.26% [2] - **Implied Volatility and Ratio**: The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option was 22.4%, up 0.0201%; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.15, down 0.0529 [2] Industry News - **US Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index in September increased 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. Real personal consumption expenditure in September was flat month - on - month. The one - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in December dropped to 4.1%, the lowest since January this year, and the five - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.2%. The US White House National Economic Council Director said it was a good time for the Fed to "cautiously cut interest rates" and expected action next week [2] - **Chinese Policy**: During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, China will implement a special consumption - boosting action, expand service consumption, actively expand independent opening - up, and promote trade innovation and two - way investment cooperation. The "15th Five - Year Plan" for the automotive industry aims to promote domestic automobile sales to exceed 35 million units, with a new energy vehicle penetration rate exceeding 70% and the popularization of high - level intelligent driving [2] - **US Economic Forecast**: The US Treasury Secretary predicted that the US GDP growth rate this year would reach 3%, and the inflation rate would drop significantly next year, with the bond market having its best performance since 2020 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International corn market prices are suppressed by high supply pressure and relatively loose supply - demand conditions, but the strong US domestic corn spot market provides support [2]. - In the domestic market, in the Northeast, growers are reluctant to sell, and buyers are active. Deep - processing enterprises' prices are likely to rise. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market volume is increasing, and processing enterprises' purchase prices fluctuate slightly. Corn futures prices are generally in a strong - side shock [2]. - For corn starch, the supply pressure increases due to abundant raw materials and rising industry operating rates, but strong downstream demand and smooth enterprise sales lead to a decline in inventory. Starch futures prices also maintain a strong - side shock [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2,287 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 7 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is 14 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures positions: 938,213 lots for yellow corn and 229,123 lots for corn starch, with an increase of 3,174 lots for corn starch [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 184,321 lots for corn starch and - 40,210 lots for corn, a decrease of 7,515 lots for corn [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 58,664 lots for yellow corn and 0 lots for corn starch; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 351 yuan/ton [2]. - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 443.25 cents/bushel, down 6.5 cents; total CBOT corn positions are 1,644,250 lots, down 11,481 lots [2]. 3.2 Outer - Market - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions are 37,621 lots, down 83,343 lots [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Average corn spot price is 2,348.63 yuan/ton, up 8.73 yuan/ton; corn starch factory price in Changchun is 2,590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn flat - hatch price in Jinzhou Port is 2,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; corn starch factory price in Weifang is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Imported corn CIF price is 2,095.98 yuan/ton, down 2.33 yuan/ton; corn starch factory price in Shijiazhuang is 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch main - contract basis is 52 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; corn main - contract basis is - 19.27 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 61.63 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 601 yuan/ton, up 147 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Predicted corn planting areas: 42.71 million hectares in the US, 13.1 million hectares in Brazil, 5.3 million hectares in Argentina, and 29.5 million hectares in China [2]. - Predicted corn yields: 364.4 million tons in the US, 22.6 million tons in Brazil, 7.5 million tons in Argentina, 44.3 million tons in China, and 32 million tons in Ukraine [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventories: 59.9 million tons in southern ports, down 2.9 million tons; 140 million tons in northern ports, up 6 million tons [2]. - Starch enterprise weekly inventory is 105.4 million tons, down 1.5 million tons [2]. - Corn imports are 6 million tons, down 2 million tons; corn starch exports are 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2,957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons; sample feed corn inventory days are 27.83 days, up 1.6 days [2]. - Deep - processing corn consumption is 142.34 million tons, up 4.03 million tons; alcohol enterprise operating rate is 71.34%, up 1.89%; starch enterprise operating rate is 61.66%, up 0.28% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.7%, up 0.08%; 60 - day historical volatility is 8.59%, up 0.11% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 12.11%, up 1.94%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.11%, up 1.94% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Brazilian 2025/26 corn production is expected to be 138 million tons, 2 million tons lower than the previous forecast [2]. - Analysts expect US 2025/26 corn export net sales from October 30, 2025, to be between 800,000 and 2.5 million tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience short - term shock adjustments, and investors should pay attention to the resistance level of 119,000 [3]. - In the macro - aspect, the ADP in the US unexpectedly declined in November, with employment decreasing by 32,000, the largest drop since March 2023, and small - business unemployment soared. The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high [3]. - In the fundamental aspect, the nickel ore imports are on a downward trend as the Philippines enters the rainy season. The RKAB approval in Indonesia and possible export policy changes are potential variables but have limited impact on supply recently. The nickel - iron production in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Multiple new refined nickel projects in China and Indonesia are being put into production one after another. Although some production has been cut due to shortages of intermediate raw materials and profit losses, the production is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively large [3]. - On the demand side, the cost of nickel - iron for stainless steel has decreased, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small amount of incremental demand [3]. - In terms of inventory, domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, and the market mainly purchases according to demand, with the spot premium rising. The LME inventory overseas also shows an increasing trend [3]. - Technically, the position remains stable while the price is adjusting, and the divergence between long and short positions increases [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 117,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 14,875 US dollars/ton, an increase of 135 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 118,041 lots, a decrease of 577 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 27,672 lots, an increase of 539 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 252,990 tons, a decrease of 84 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 40,782 tons, an increase of 987 tons. The total cancelled warrants of LME nickel are 8,436 tons, a decrease of 156 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 35,096 tons, an increase of 2,501 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 120,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 120,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the main NI contract is 2,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 510 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 196.14 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.33 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 4682,800 tons per month, a decrease of 1431,700 tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,4873,300 tons per week, a decrease of 124,300 tons [3]. - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of nickel - iron is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 180 tons, an increase of 9939.65 tons. The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 59.76 tons, a decrease of 18.02 tons [3]. - The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 90.51 tons, an increase of 1.23 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - On December 3, the State Council conducted the 17th special study with the theme of "Deeply promoting people - centered new - type urbanization and striving to build a new pattern of integrated urban - rural development". Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic cycle [3]. - The ADP in the US unexpectedly declined in November, with employment decreasing by 32,000, the largest drop since March 2023, and small - business unemployment soared. The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high, with an expected value of 52.0 [3].