1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 27, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1154.0, down 3.87%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The macro - situation shows that China's single - month electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh in July. Fundamentally, the mine - end inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 27, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1669.5, down 2.82%. The mainstream coke enterprises proposed an eighth - round price increase for coke. The macro - situation indicates that during the "14th Five - Year Plan", China's energy supply was sufficient, stable in price, resilient, and high in "green content". Fundamentally, the demand side shows high iron - water production, and the coking coal inventory has shifted downstream with an overall increase in total inventory. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 23 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1154.00 yuan/ton, down 6.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1669.50 yuan/ton, down 11.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 912715.00 lots, up 4544.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 47368.00 lots, down 270.00 lots [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 128949.00 lots, up 4501.00 lots; net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts: - 5217.00 lots, up 154.00 lots [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 142.50 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread: 69.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 820.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal: 985.00 yuan/ton, up 37.00 yuan; Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke: 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 150.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1570.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: 105.50 yuan/ton, up 11.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 146.00 yuan/ton, up 6.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 314 independent coal washing plants' clean coal output: 26.00 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; 314 independent coal washing plants' clean coal inventory: 289.50 million tons, down 5.30 million tons [2]. - 314 independent coal washing plants' capacity utilization rate: 0.37%, up 0.00%; raw coal output: 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 3561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; 523 coking coal mines' daily average raw coal output: 191.20 million tons, up 3.30 million tons [2]. - 16 ports' imported coking coal inventory: 450.45 million tons, up 2.67 million tons; 18 ports' coke inventory: 268.62 million tons, down 1.09 million tons [2]. - Independent coking enterprises' total coking coal inventory: 966.41 million tons, down 10.47 million tons; independent coking enterprises' total coke inventory: 64.37 million tons, up 1.86 million tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory: 812.31 million tons, up 6.51 million tons; 247 steel mills' coke inventory: 609.59 million tons, down 0.21 million tons [2]. - Independent coking enterprises' available days of coking coal: 13.07 days, up 0.10 days; 247 steel mills' available days of coke: 10.76 days, down 0.07 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization rate: 74.42%, up 0.08% [2]. - Independent coking plants' profit per ton of coke: 23.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; coke output: 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 83.34%, down 0.23%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate: 90.27%, up 0.03% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump announced to "fire" the current Federal Reserve governor, and the Fed's independence is facing an "unprecedented" impact [2]. - The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on India starting Wednesday, and Modi implemented tax cuts and administrative reforms [2]. - By the end of 2024, China's overseas investment stock exceeded 3 trillion US dollars, accounting for 7.2% of global foreign investment [2]. - In July, China's single - month electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh, and the power supply is stable after the peak - summer period [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - For coking coal, on August 27, the 2601 contract closed lower. The macro situation shows stable power supply, and fundamentally, the mine - end inventory has changed, with imports' cumulative growth rate declining. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - For coke, on August 27, the 2601 contract closed lower. The macro situation indicates stable energy supply, and fundamentally, the demand is high, and the inventory has shifted downstream. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of the pig market is loose as the planned August slaughter volume by breeders increased month - on - month and the actual slaughter rhythm did not slow down as expected. The market should continue to monitor the end - of - month slaughter rhythm. The widening price gap between fattening and standard pigs provides conditions for later hoarding [2]. - On the demand side, the state will conduct central pork reserve purchases soon. With sufficient pig supply, partial demand recovery, a mild increase in slaughterhouse operating rates, and the upcoming start of school and double - festival stocking, future demand is expected to improve [2]. - Recently, the fast slaughter rhythm and the unapparent demand boost from the start of school have put downward pressure on spot prices, dragging down the pig futures prices. The market is expected to be in a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 13,745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 71,593 lots, an increase of 1,323 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 430 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 16,653 lots, an increase of 132 lots. The main contract of live pigs on Wednesday, August 27, 2025, closed down 0.69% [2]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of live pigs in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu were 13,500 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), 13,100 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and 15,100 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The main contract basis was - 245 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly live pig inventory was 42.447 million heads, an increase of 716,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 4.042 million heads, a decrease of 1,000 heads. The monthly year - on - year CPI was 0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the spot price of corn was 2,365.69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 899.54, a decrease of 1.35. The monthly output of feed was 28.273 million tons, a decrease of 1.104 million tons. The weekly price of binary breeding sows was 1,627 yuan/head, a decrease of 11 yuan. The weekly breeding profit for purchased piglets was - 151.8 yuan/head, an increase of 5.25 yuan; the weekly breeding profit for self - bred and self - raised pigs was 33.95 yuan/head, an increase of 5.1 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork was 90,000 tons, unchanged. The weekly average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas was 14.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.3 yuan [2]. 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 3.006 million heads, a decrease of 210,000 heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail was 45.041 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.035 billion yuan. According to the sample data of key breeding enterprises from Shanghai Ganglian, on August 27, 2025, the daily national slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 277,480 heads, an increase of 0.36% from the previous day [2]. 5. Industry News - The planned August slaughter volume by breeders increased month - on - month, and the actual slaughter rhythm did not slow down as expected, resulting in a loose market supply [2]. - The state will conduct central pork reserve purchases soon [2]. 6. Key Points of Concern - Monitor the end - of - month slaughter rhythm and the performance of terminal demand [2].

红枣产业日报 2025-08-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 11360 | | -50 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 130407 | -1842 -60 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -11154 | | -2456 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 9962 | | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 1007 | 0 | | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 6 | | 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.8 | 0 | | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 5.2 | | 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.75 | 0 | | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) | 4.8 | | 0 河南红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 10.5 | 0 | | | 河北红枣特级价格(元/公斤 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The international raw sugar price maintains a low - level oscillating trend due to the good production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries and concerns about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, and the import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade. The beet sugar will start to be squeezed in September, increasing the supply. The demand is expected to increase during the upcoming double - festival stocking period. The inventory pressure is not large, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The new - season sugar production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. These factors will suppress the medium - term price trend. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5620 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 363151 lots, down 2979 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 14906, down 409, and the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 14219 lots, down 295 lots. The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts is 1, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian and Thai sugar within the quota is 4540 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5769 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan, and that of Thai sugar is 5755 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5845 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), 5920 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and 6020 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 tons, an increase of 5.49 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 tons, an increase of 86.92 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 tons, a decrease of 81.43 tons, and the sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47%. The monthly sugar import volume is 740000 tons, an increase of 320000 tons, and the monthly sugar export volume of Brazil is 359.37 tons, an increase of 23.47 tons [2]. Industrial Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 101 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 41 tons, an increase of 7.3 tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1796.6 tons, a decrease of 46.2 tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.15%, an increase of 0.85%; that of put options is 9.18%, an increase of 0.88%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.47%, down 1.23%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.18%, an increase of 0.05% [2]. Industry News - The Brazilian National Supply Company revised down the sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons due to adverse weather affecting sugarcane planting. On Tuesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract rose 0.18%, and on Wednesday, the domestic sugar 2601 contract fell 0.67% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the domestic market, the continuous auction of imported corn in the main producing areas and the listing of spring corn have increased supply. Trade entities are less willing to hold prices and more eager to clear inventories. With weak downstream demand, the market's confidence in price increases has diminished, and corn prices are gradually bottoming out. The corn market remains in a weak trend, and a bearish approach is recommended [2]. - Corn Starch: As previously shut - down enterprises resume operations, supply pressure has increased. With downstream demand in the off - season and poor sales, the supply of corn starch far exceeds demand. Corn starch inventory has increased, and the market remains in a weak trend, suggesting a bearish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active futures contract is 2164 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 70 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 1019003 lots, up 14990 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 105472 lots, up 8639 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 84226 lots, down 5844 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 281 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Corn Starch: The closing price of the active futures contract is 2471 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 11 - 1 monthly spread is - 44 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 225322 lots, up 14600 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 28973 lots, down 2352 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 7450 lots, unchanged [2]. - CBOT Corn: The closing price is 409.25 cents/bushel, down 3.25 cents; the total open interest is 1566367 contracts, up 16491 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 105210 contracts, up 27964 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2365.69 yuan/ton, down 2.06 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1918.54 yuan/ton, down 1.3 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 201.69 yuan/ton, down 8.06 yuan [2]. - Corn Starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2660 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Weifang is 2900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Shijiazhuang is 2830 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 336 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan [2]. - Substitute Products: The average spot price of wheat is 2430.11 yuan/ton, down 1.11 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 157 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 38 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production Forecast: The predicted annual corn production in the US is 398.93 million tons, down 2.92 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; in China is 295 million tons, unchanged; in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, unchanged [2]. - Sowing Area Forecast: The predicted sowing area of corn in the US is 35.12 million hectares, down 0.25 million hectares; in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged; in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; in China is 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Inventory: The corn inventory at southern ports is 67.1 million tons, down 8 million tons; at northern ports is 203 million tons, down 44 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 314.7 million tons, down 25.5 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 thousand tons, down 13.28 thousand tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed: The sample feed corn inventory days are 28.85 days, down 0.76 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 113.62 million tons, down 0.44 million tons [2]. - Corn Starch Processing: The processing profit in Shandong is - 94 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; in Hebei is - 77 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, unchanged; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 43.57%, up 1.57%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.01%, down 1.29% [2]. Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.77%, down 0.1%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.18%, up 0.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.89%, up 0.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.89%, up 0.11% [2]. Industry News - Ukraine: As of August 25, 2025/26 (starting from July), Ukraine's grain exports were 353 million tons, higher than 298.3 million tons a week ago but lower than 675 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - US: In 18 states accounting for 92% of the national corn sowing area, as of August 24, the proportion of corn in the dough stage was 83%, up from 72% a week ago, the same as 83% last year. Pro Farmer's final yield forecast shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 1.6204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's August forecast [2]. Key Points to Watch The weekly corn consumption data and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises released by Mysteel on Thursday and Friday should be closely monitored [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of polysilicon is increasing while the demand is weakening. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week. The price is supported by cost and policy, but the upside space is limited by downstream acceptance, and it will likely continue to show a volatile trend. The demand for industrial silicon is steadily declining, but the supply is also decreasing, and the overall situation remains volatile. Today, polysilicon fell following the trend of coking coal. Attention should be paid to whether it will break through the support level. Short - term investors can buy on dips, and stop - loss if it breaks through [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon was 48,690 yuan/ton, down 2,295 yuan; the position of the main contract was 154,537 lots, up 17,059 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon was - 2,390 yuan, down 10 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 40,165 yuan/ton, down 2,305 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 49,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 1,985 yuan/ton, up 595 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower, dense, re - feeding, and re - compounding materials were 30, 36, 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon was 8,525 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the export volume was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons. The monthly output was 333,200 tons, up 8,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.46 US dollars/kg, up 0.16 US dollars; the monthly import average price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2]. Industry News - From January to July, the cumulative social electricity consumption was 5863.3 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. Among them, the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5470.3 billion kWh. The electricity consumption of the primary, secondary, tertiary industries and urban and rural residents increased by 10.8%, 2.8%, 7.8% and 7.6% respectively [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 105,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,170 tons, up 57 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The price of silicon wafers was stable, and some enterprises raised prices, but downstream buyers were hesitant. The weak terminal demand gradually emerged. Although the quotes of the photovoltaic industry chain increased, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remained unchanged, and the terminal transaction pressure was high, which restricted the demand for polysilicon [2]. Key Points to Watch - There was no news today [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Egg supply is abundant due to high laying - hen inventory, new - laying pressure from previously replenished hens, and continuous出库 of cold - storage eggs. Terminal demand is weak, and high - temperature weather makes the market cautious. Spot prices are lower than expected, and the breeding end is in a continuous loss state. The slow de - capacity in the industry may continue to restrict egg prices during the school - opening and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking seasons. The futures price generally maintains a weak trend under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 2975 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 38 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 54551 hands, a decrease of 3922 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is 22 yuan/500 kilograms; the registered warehouse receipt volume is - 77 hands; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 515876 hands, an increase of 44842 hands [2] 3.2现货市场 - The egg spot price is 3.09 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 79 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 58 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 113.18 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.27; the national culled laying - hen index is 99.2 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.89; the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main production areas is 3.2 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.4 yuan; the national new - chick index is 78.4 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 2.33; the average price of egg - chicken compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kilogram, unchanged; the egg - chicken breeding profit is - 0.15 yuan/head, an increase of 0.11 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 10.1 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 0.84 yuan; the national culled - chicken age is 512 days, an increase of 11 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.92 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 0.09 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.9 yuan/kilogram, unchanged; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.67 yuan/kilogram, unchanged; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.16 days, an increase of 0.13 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.02 days, an increase of 0.1 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly egg consumption in the sales areas is 7439 tons, a decrease of 166 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong is 6.35 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.15 yuan; in Hebei, it is 6.32 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.19 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.40 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.20 yuan; in Beijing, it is 7.10 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.20 yuan. Currently, the laying - hen inventory is high, the new - laying pressure of previously replenished laying hens is large, and the egg supply is sufficient. Cold - storage eggs are continuously出库, increasing the supply pressure [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2510 closed down 2.76%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1990.20, down 55.31 points from last week, a 8.7% month - on - month decrease. The continuous decline of spot indicators is expected to drive down futures prices. - Leading shipping companies have launched a "price war" to compete for off - season cargo volume, and market expectations have turned cold. - US President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors has increased the uncertainty of global trade, and the market's expectation of a resurgence of trade conflicts has risen. - The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged last month was widely supported, and there are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has weakened. - The GDP growth rate of the eurozone in Q2 2025 slightly exceeded market expectations, and the service and manufacturing industries are gradually recovering. - Overall, there is still uncertainty in the trade war, the demand expectation for the container shipping index (European line) is weak, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1318.900, down 37.4; EC secondary main contract closing price: 1643.9, down 47.1. - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: +13.70; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 150.40, down 11.50. - EC contract basis: +39.10, 671.30. - EC main contract open interest: 54409, up 52 [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1990.20, down 189.97; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 1041.38, down 64.91. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1415.36, down 44.83; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1174.87, down 18.47; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1757.74, down 32.73. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1944.00, down 51.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1770.00, down 51.00. - Average charter price (Panamax): 14120.00, up 213.00; average charter price (Capesize): 22168.00, up 2391.00 [1]. Industry News - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, targeting products entering the US market after August 27, 2025 [1]. - The US has included minerals such as copper and potash in the 2025 critical minerals list, and the draft list is open for public comment for 30 days [1]. - Large investment banks such as Barclays, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Macquarie and Deutsche Bank have revised their expectations and expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December respectively [1]. Key Data to Watch - August 27, 09:30: China's year - to - date profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in July - August 27, 14:00: Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index for September - August 27, 18:00: UK's CBI retail sales difference for August [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On August 26, 2025, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds strengthened collectively, and treasury bond futures also strengthened. The domestic fundamental data showed some weaknesses, while overseas, the market bet on the Fed's interest - rate cut in September. As bond yields approach the high point in mid - March this year, the allocation value has significantly increased, and the sensitivity of the bond market to external factors may decrease marginally. If the capital and fundamental fluctuations are limited, the suppression of the bond market by the strengthening of the equity market is expected to be limited, and the bond market pricing is expected to gradually return to the rational range dominated by fundamentals. However, the interest - rate center lacks the motivation to decline further. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities brought by the phased repair of treasury bond futures [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.06%, 0.04%, 0.01%, and 0.47% respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, and TS main contracts increased by 7896, 15736, and 12209 respectively, while the trading volume of TL main contract decreased by 5603 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - Multiple futures spreads showed changes, such as the TL2512 - 2509 spread increasing by 0.12 to - 0.39, and the T12 - TL12 spread decreasing by 0.53 to - 8.85 [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts all increased, by 2635, 1227, 1543, and 1901 respectively. The net short positions of T and TL top 20 increased, while those of TF and TS top 20 decreased [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - The clean prices of multiple bonds increased, such as 220025.IB increasing by 0.0703 to 107.302, and 220017.IB increasing by 0.0315 to 99.0955 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Yields - The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active treasury bonds decreased by 1.25bp, 0.50bp, 1.75bp, 2.50bp, and 2.15bp respectively [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight interest rate increased by 3.44bp to 1.3644%, while Shibor overnight decreased by 3.90bp to 1.3170%. Other short - term interest rates also showed different changes [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 405.8 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 580.3 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase, with a net withdrawal of 174.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.9 Industry News - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority launched the optimization arrangement for offshore RMB bond repurchase business. Shanghai optimized real - estate policies. The National Development and Reform Commission held a corporate symposium to listen to opinions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment [2]. 3.10 Key Points of Attention - On August 28 at 17:00, the Eurozone's industrial sentiment index for August will be released. On August 29 at 20:30, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for July will be released [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - V2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 4999 yuan/ton. This week, the restart of maintenance devices is expected to increase production and capacity utilization, while more PVC production plans in August will add long - term supply pressure. Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak real estate market drags down domestic demand, and the Indian anti - dumping policy will exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction and put pressure on prices. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4900 and the pressure around 5100 [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 736,194 lots, a decrease of 351,932 lots; the open interest was 1,057,318 lots, an increase of 49,158 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 853,070 lots, an increase of 1,523 lots; the short position was 934,697 lots, an increase of 19,110 lots; the net long position was - 81,627 lots, a decrease of 17,587 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5040 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4790.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.46 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4985 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4891.88 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.38 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 725 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 229 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2573.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it was 2398 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 181 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 77.61%, a decrease of 2.72%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 76.81%, a decrease of 3.15%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.59%, a decrease of 1.67%. The total social inventory of PVC was 508,000 tons, an increase of 15,200 tons. The total inventory in the East China region was 450,200 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 57,800 tons, an increase of 200 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, an increase of 54.0957 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 281.0593 billion yuan, an increase of 36.3043 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 12.24%, a decrease of 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 21.67%, a decrease of 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.2%, a decrease of 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.21%, a decrease of 0.01% [3] 3.7 Industry News - On August 26, the market price of PVCSG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou was 0 - 20 yuan/ton higher than the previous day, ranging from 4740 to 4840 yuan/ton. From August 16 to August 22, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a decrease of 2.72% from the previous period. As of August 21, PVC social inventory increased by 5.09% to 852,700 tons month - on - month and decreased by 6.50% year - on - year [3]