Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Pro Farmer report indicates that the potential of US soybean crops is relatively stable, with supply - side pressure remaining. However, the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the price floor of US soybeans. For rapeseed - related products in the domestic market, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals eases supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. The temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed further weaken long - term supply. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. For rapeseed oil, in the short term, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply restrain market prices. However, the low oil mill operating rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply - side pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9853 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2501 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 654.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 6.2 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 4812 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The rapeseed oil 1 - 5 monthly spread is 170 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the rapeseed meal 1 - 5 monthly spread is 55 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 8620 lots, up 3218 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are - 15264 lots, down 4314 lots. The main contract positions for rapeseed oil are 282897 lots, and for rapeseed meal are 419022 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3887 sheets, up 400 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 7710 sheets, down 277 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10020 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10085 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 8147.66 yuan/ton, down 43.56 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Spreads and ratios: The oil - meal ratio is 3.78, down 0.02. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 199 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 59 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 550 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79%, up 0.85 percentage points. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 632 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.5 tons, up 0.05 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.1 tons, down 0.45 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 53.6 tons, down 0.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 32.86 tons, down 0.73 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.9 tons, down 0.1 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 21.4 tons, down 0.4 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2.81 tons, down 0.95 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.79 tons, down 0.45 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons. The monthly social consumer goods retail total for catering revenue is 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.08%, up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 20.08%, up 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.16%, down 2.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.17%, down 2.15 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 32.42%, up 0.1 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 21.71%, down 0.4 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.48%, down 2.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.4%, down 0.45 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Futures market news: On August 26, ICE rapeseed futures weakened but were still relatively strong compared to the soybean oil market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract fell 4.60 Canadian dollars to settle at 654.80 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 4.60 Canadian dollars to settle at 666.90 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - Crop forecast news: The Pro Farmer report predicts that the average yield of US soybeans will reach a record - high 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total production of 4.246 billion bushels, showing relatively stable crop potential and supply - side pressure [2]. - Policy and trade news: AAFC estimates that Canada's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season will be 20.1 million tons, a 12.9% increase from the July estimate, and the carry - over inventory will double. China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may affect its exports and put pressure on Canadian rapeseed prices. There are signals of easing relations between China and Canada, and news of Sino - US soybean trade negotiations may affect domestic meal prices [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - On August 27, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5832, down 0.92%. The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5750, down 50 yuan/ton. The output has been on an upward trend since mid - May, and after the recent price recovery, the inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end decreased by 20,000 tons, and the downstream hot metal output is at a high level. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 50 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 310 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 27, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was reported at 5634, down 1.02%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5460. From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. After the profit improvement, the output has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks. The manufacturers hedged more in the early stage, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The Ningxia semi - coke price at the cost end has risen, and the overall steel demand expectation is still weak. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 185 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 40 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 100 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (Manganese - Silicon) main contract closing price was 5832 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; SF (Ferrosilicon) main contract closing price was 5634 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest was 553,069 lots, down 645 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 421,840 lots, down 8950 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese - silicon was - 72,997 lots, up 1792 lots; the net position of the top 20 in ferrosilicon was - 35,091 lots, down 363 lots [2]. - The SM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 102 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the SF 1 - 9 month contract spread was 170 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 67,498 pieces, down 610 pieces; SF warehouse receipts were 19,326 pieces, down 296 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5830 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5380 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5460 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese - silicon index average was 5706 yuan/ton, down 164 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 174 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the SM main contract basis was - 82 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 4.446 million tons, down 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 46.37%, up 0.62 percentage points; the ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 36.52%, up 0.34 percentage points [2]. - The manganese - silicon supply was 211,190 tons, up 4130 tons; the ferrosilicon supply was 113,400 tons, up 500 tons [2]. - The manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 156,000 tons, down 2800 tons; the ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 62,080 tons, down 3100 tons [2]. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese - silicon was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; the national steel mill inventory of ferrosilicon was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 125,285 tons, down 97 tons; the demand for ferrosilicon from the five major steel types was 20,275.9 tons, down 38.06 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.34%, down 0.23 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. - The crude steel output was 79.6582 million tons, down 3.5258 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump announced to "fire" the current Federal Reserve governor, saying that interest rate cuts will become the majority opinion of the Fed. The governor Cook will sue the dismissal decision. The Fed stated that the president can only remove a governor for "good cause", and the Fed will abide by any court decision [2]. - The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on India starting Wednesday. German media reported that Trump called Indian Prime Minister Modi at least four times recently but was rejected each time [2]. - By the end of 2024, China had established more than 50,000 enterprises overseas, spread across 190 countries and regions. The stock of outward investment exceeded 3 trillion US dollars, ranking among the top three globally for 8 consecutive years, accounting for 7.2% of global outward investment [2]. - In July, China's single - month electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time, equivalent to Japan's annual electricity consumption. Now the peak - summer power consumption period is basically over, and China's power supply is stable and orderly [2].

，汽车增长边际减弱，杰克霍尔旗年会鲍威尔降息言论传出，后续有望继续交易降息逻辑。今日玻璃回落 ，虽然幅度不大，但后续情况依旧难有表现，短期多头依旧没有太大机会，切莫过早追多。玻璃主力建议 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 逢低布局多单 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-08-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1307 | 环比 数据指标 -4 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1175 | 环比 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 132 | -6 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index has rebounded but remains in the negative range, and the firmness of copper mines still supports copper prices. [2] - On the supply side, the copper concentrate at ports continues to decline, and the demand of domestic smelters has increased. It is expected that the domestic refined copper supply may increase slightly. [2] - On the demand side, due to the continued impact of the off - season, downstream consumption remains weak. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream may have some pre - stocking demand, so the overall demand is expected to gradually improve. [2] - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may show a slight increase in supply, stable but improving demand, and industry inventories remain in the medium - low range. [2] - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0012. The market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. [2] - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,789.50 dollars/ton, down 47.50 dollars. [2] - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 174,997 lots, down 491 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 12,244 lots, down 1,967 lots; the LME copper inventory is 155,000 tons, down 975 tons. [2] - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 81,698 tons (weekly), down 4,663 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 13,250 tons, up 1,500 tons. [2] - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 21,287 tons, down 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,545 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,585 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 60 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 55 dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of the CU main contract is 355 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 84.82 dollars/ton, down 6.44 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons (monthly), up 21.05 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 41.15 dollars/kiloton (weekly), down 3.47 dollars. [2] - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,880 yuan/metal ton, down 110 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,580 yuan/metal ton, down 110 yuan. [2] - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton (weekly), down 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The output of refined copper is 127 million tons (monthly), down 3.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons (weekly), up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,690 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. [2] - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons (monthly), down 4.51 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.5 billion yuan (monthly), up 40.434 billion yuan. [2] - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 5,357.977 billion yuan (monthly), up 692.221 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.10%, down 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.29%, down 0.00%. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 9.23%, down 0.0127%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is down 0.0012. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The 13th plenary session of the 14th Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held. It is necessary to place the development of new - quality productivity according to local conditions in a more prominent strategic position, promote the in - depth integration of the digital economy and the real economy, and accelerate the process of industrial intelligent development. [2] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized during the 15th special study of the State Council that it is necessary to actively expand the import of high - quality services, promote the high - quality development of the service industry through high - level opening - up, and promote the institutional opening of service trade. [2] - US President Trump said in a cabinet meeting that he may appoint Stephen Milan to serve on the Federal Reserve Board for a long - term. Trump said that he will soon have a majority on the Federal Reserve. [2] - Trump said that he may visit China this year or as soon as possible. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic leading role in Sino - US relations, and the two heads of state maintain close exchanges and communication. [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate futures main contract first rose and then fell, closing down 0.23%. The open interest increased month - on - month, the spot was at a premium, and the basis strengthened. - Fundamentally, on the raw material side, lithium ore prices fluctuate sharply with the spot price of lithium carbonate. On the supply side, the previous relatively strong market quickly turned weak as some smelters in Jiangxi resumed production after equipment maintenance. Currently, domestic supply may increase slightly. On the demand side, downstream buyers are more cautious, but the procurement demand has rebounded as lithium prices fall rapidly. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the inventory is still high but decreasing. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 75.35%, up 0.0109% month - on - month. The call open interest dominates, and the market sentiment is bullish with a slight decline in implied volatility. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are below the 0 - axis and the red bars are contracting. - The operation suggestion is to short at high levels with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Main contract closing price: 78,860 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan. - Main contract open interest: 351,322 lots, up 1,826 lots. - Net position of the top 20: - 138,531 lots, up 13,645 lots. - Spread between near and far contracts: 580 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - Warehouse receipts on GZEE: 26,690 lots/ton, up 1,060 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate: 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - Average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate: 79,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - Basis of Li₂CO₃ main contract: 2,740 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China): 961 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - Average price of amblygonite: 7,775 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. - Average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%): 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production: 44,600 tons, up 500 tons. - Lithium carbonate imports: 13,845.31 tons, down 3,852.31 tons. - Lithium carbonate exports: 366.35 tons, down 63.31 tons. - Lithium carbonate enterprise operating rate: 48%, down 4 percentage points. - Power battery production: 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh. - Price of lithium manganate: 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Price of lithium hexafluorophosphate: 55,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Price of lithium cobalt oxide: 235,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Price of ternary material (811 type, China): 147,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan. - Price of ternary material (622 power type, China): 123,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - Price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type, China): 130,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. - Operating rate of ternary cathode materials: 52%, up 1 percentage point. - Price of lithium iron phosphate: 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode: 51%, down 1 percentage point. - New energy vehicle monthly production (CAAM): 1,243,000 vehicles, down 25,000 vehicles. - New energy vehicle monthly sales (CAAM): 1,262,000 vehicles, down 67,000 vehicles. - Cumulative penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales (CAAM): 44.99%, up 0.68 percentage points. - Cumulative new energy vehicle sales and year - on - year increase: 8,220,000 vehicles, up 2,286,000 vehicles. - New energy vehicle monthly exports: 225,000 vehicles, up 20,000 vehicles. - Cumulative new energy vehicle exports and year - on - year increase: 1.308 million vehicles, up 600,000 vehicles. - 20 - day average volatility of the underlying: 52.75%, down 0.03 percentage points. - 40 - day average volatility of the underlying: 56.43%, down 0.07 percentage points. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - Total call open interest: 205,910 contracts, up 4,714 contracts. - Total put open interest: 155,156 contracts, up 3,574 contracts. - Put - call ratio of total open interest: 75.35%, up 0.0109 percentage points. - At - the - money implied volatility: 0.37%, down 0.0168 percentage points. [2] 4. Industry News - The 13th plenary session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized developing new - quality productive forces, promoting the integration of the digital and real economies, boosting consumption, and enhancing innovation capabilities. - Premier Li Qiang stressed expanding high - quality service imports, promoting institutional opening - up of service trade, and building a unified national market. - He Xiaopeng, Chairman of XPeng Motors, said the elimination stage in China's auto industry will last about five years, and about five domestic enterprises may remain. - The National Energy Administration stated that during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China built the world's largest EV charging network and the largest and fastest - growing renewable energy system, with the proportion of renewable energy power generation capacity increasing from 40% to about 60%. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decrease, demand will gradually increase, and combined with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels[3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,890 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 1,988 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars. The 09 - 10 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai lead position is 85,570 lots, up 174 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,540 lots, up 1,253 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt is 58,201 tons, down 747 tons[3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 63,690 tons, down 1,154 tons; the LME lead inventory is 271,550 tons, down 1,500 tons[3] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 lead spot price is 16,775 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 lead spot price is 16,990 yuan/ton, unchanged. The lead main contract basis is - 115 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 38.74 dollars/ton, down 4.95 dollars[3] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan decreased by 51 yuan[3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS lead supply - demand balance is - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.27%, up 3.12 percentage points. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 37.27%, up 3.12 percentage points. The monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The weekly output of primary lead is 37,500 tons, up 2,200 tons[3] - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is 77.66 dollars/kiloton, up 4.41 dollars. The global lead ore production is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons[3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,132.14 yuan/ton, up 1.78 yuan[3] - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged[3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other electrical products is 2,002.89 points, down 35.44 points. The monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles[3] 3.6 Industry News - Regarding the Fed, Trump's administration is weighing plans to influence local Fed branches and review the selection of local Fed presidents. Cook's lawyer has sought a judicial ruling on Trump's dismissal. Trump says he has a replacement for Cook and will soon hold a majority of seats at the Fed. Former White House Economic Council Director Brainard says Trump's dismissal of Cook is an unprecedented attack on the Fed, which may lead to inflation and a rise in long - term interest rates. Barkin predicts a moderate adjustment of interest rates[3] - Regarding the tariff war, Trump says furniture tariffs will be introduced soon and will be very high, and will implement export restrictions and tariffs against foreign digital taxes. Indonesian officials say the US has agreed in principle to exempt Indonesian palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from 19% tariffs. German media reports that Trump has called Modi at least four times recently but was rejected[3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The production of primary lead refineries is relatively stable, but with the continuous fluctuation of lead prices, the production decisions of some primary lead refineries have been adjusted, and the output still fluctuates slightly. The supply of recycled lead shows regional differences. The supply of waste battery raw materials is tight, and smelters lack confidence. The overall supply side is tight. The sewage inspection in Anhui has a marginal impact on local recycled lead production, increasing the uncertainty of supply[3] - The operating rate of recycled lead has slightly decreased and remains at a relatively low level. The profits of recycled enterprises have not improved, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable. In terms of inventory, foreign inventory is rising, domestic inventory is falling, and overall inventory is rising. Currently, demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction, but it is expected to gradually strengthen, which will support lead prices[3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The fundamentals may show a situation of both supply and demand growth, with a slight reduction in social inventory and an increase in exchange inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and a weak - oscillating strategy [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals may be in a situation of a slight increase in supply, temporarily weak but expected to recover demand, and a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and an oscillating strategy [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The fundamentals may be in a stage of a slight reduction in supply and weak demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and sell on rallies strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,810 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the closing price of the Alumina futures main contract is 3,046 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,638.50 US dollars/ton, up 16.50 US dollars [2]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory is 478,075 tons, down 650 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 124,605 tons, up 3,952 tons; Alumina inventory is 103,364 tons, up 14,952 tons [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 269,866 lots, up 18,457 lots; the open interest of the Alumina main contract is 237,684 lots, up 8,959 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,840 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the Alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Alumina is 124 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 30 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Supply**: Alumina production is 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; the import volume of Alumina is 12.59 million tons, up 2.47 million tons [2]. - **Demand**: The demand for Alumina from electrolytic aluminum plants remains high, especially in the southwest region during the July - August wet season [2]. 3.4 Downstream and Application - **Production**: Aluminum product production is 548.37 million tons, down 39 million tons; automobile production is 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. - **Export**: The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 6.02%, up 0.20%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.36%, up 0.08% [2]. - **Implied Volatility and Put - Call Ratio**: The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.72%, down 0.0050%; the put - call ratio is 1.09, up 0.0131 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The 13th Plenary Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized the development of new - quality productivity [2]. - Premier Li Qiang stressed the expansion of high - quality service imports and the promotion of high - quality development of the service industry [2]. - Trump may let Stephen Milan serve on the Federal Reserve Board for a long time and may visit China this year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The ICE cotton futures price closed lower due to concerns about increased supply caused by good crop conditions in the US. In China, cotton is in a destocking state, with tight supply before the new - cotton harvest, and the spot price remains firm. The total quota for processing trade of imported cotton with sliding - scale duties in China in 2025 is 200,000 tons. Although inland spinning enterprises have no profit, there are expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season, and the operating rate has slightly rebounded. Overall, the quota news puts short - term downward pressure on the cotton futures price, but tight old - crop supply and improved demand expectations support the price. It is expected to fluctuate, and the medium - term trend is suppressed by the expected increase in new - crop cotton production. The report suggests short - term long positions on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price: 14,075 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton futures top - 20 net positions: - 54,437 hands, up 3,130 hands; main - contract cotton positions: 508,803 hands, up 739 hands; cotton warehouse receipts: 6,859 sheets, down 118 sheets. - Cotton yarn main - contract closing price: 20,100 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; cotton yarn futures top - 20 net positions: - 500 hands, up 16 hands; main - contract cotton yarn positions: 22,463 hands, up 200 hands; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 63 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,342 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,492 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 14,282 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan. - China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded yarn 32S: 21,897 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; arrival price of imported pure - cotton combed yarn 32S: 23,767 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,418 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory: 857,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; cotton imports: 50,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; cotton yarn imports: 110,000 tons, unchanged. - Imported cotton profit: 1,052 yuan/ton, up 184 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory: 2.1898 million tons, down 0.64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; grey - cloth inventory days: 36.14 days, down 1.1 days; monthly cloth output: 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; monthly yarn output: 2.065 million tons, up 0.114 million tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value: 1,516,175,900 US dollars, down 10,495,500 US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value: 1,160,400,900 US dollars, down 44,419,800 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton call options: 10.8%, down 0.54%; implied volatility of at - the - money cotton put options: 10.82%, down 0.53%. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.59%, up 0.21%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.71%, up 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing sales decreased significantly. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and needle - textile products were 96.13 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.63%. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 841.44 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.25%. - On Tuesday, the ICE December cotton contract closed down 1.05%. On Wednesday, the cotton 2601 contract closed down 0.32%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract closed down 0.3% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed generally lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.69%. After continuous sharp rallies, the market showed profit - taking actions. [2] - The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size in July narrowed for two consecutive months, but the revenue growth rate was lower than the cost growth rate, resulting in a decline in the revenue profit margin. The economic data in July were generally below expectations, and financial data showed that residents were gradually shifting from excessive savings to consumption. [2] - From the semi - annual reports of listed companies, except for the obvious acceleration of the net profit growth rate of CSI 300, the net profit improvement of SSE 50 and CSI 500 was not obvious, and the net profit growth rate of CSI 1000 changed from growth in the first quarter to decline. [2] - Northbound funds remained active in trading, and the margin trading balance continued to rise. In the current low - interest - rate environment, the transfer of residents' deposits will inject liquidity into the market, and previous policies on the entry of medium - and long - term funds will help optimize the A - share investment structure. A - shares with reasonable valuations are attracting foreign capital inflows. The market still expects policy intensification due to poor economic data performance. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2509) was at 4384.0, down 76.2; the IH main contract (2509) was at 2920.2, down 54.8; the IC main contract (2509) was at 6837.8, down 104.6; the IM main contract (2509) was at 7287.2, down 154.8. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1463.8, down 14.4; the IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2453.8, down 13.6. [2] - **Futures Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. The IF top 20 net position was - 37,436.00, down 1340.0; the IH top 20 net position was - 18,119.00, down 204.0; the IC top 20 net position was - 18,698.00, down 848.0; the IM top 20 net position was - 54,489.00, down 61.0. [2] - **Futures Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts changed. The IF main contract basis was - 2.1, up 1.5; the IH main contract basis was 1.8, up 0.8; the IC main contract basis was - 24.8, up 22.9; the IM main contract basis was - 49.3, up 11.8. [2] 3.2 Market Sentiment Data - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume was 31,977.88 billion yuan, up 4879.57 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 22,076.11 billion yuan, up 192.84 billion yuan; northbound trading volume was 3634.61 billion yuan, down 410.83 billion yuan. [2] - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 11.67%, down 40.00 percentage points; the 20 - day volatility of the CSI 300 index was 15.13%, up 1.42 percentage points; the volume PCR was 55.25%, up 15.41 percentage points; the open - interest PCR was 80.89%, down 2.37 percentage points. [2] 3.3 Industry News - **Industrial Enterprise Data**: From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 40203.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The operating income was 78.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, and the operating cost was 66.80 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5%. The operating income profit margin was 5.15%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.21 percentage points. In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year. [2] - **ETF and Mutual Fund Data**: The domestic ETF scale reached 5.07 trillion yuan, completing the leap from 4 trillion to 5 trillion in only 4 months, with 1271 ETF funds. 101 ETFs had a scale of over 10 billion, and 6 had a scale of over 100 billion. As of the end of July 2025, the total scale of public funds in China was 35.08 trillion yuan, hitting a record high for the tenth time since the beginning of 2024. In July, the scale of money market funds increased by over 380 billion yuan, the scale of stock funds increased by over 190 billion yuan, the scale of hybrid funds increased by over 130 billion yuan, and the scale of bond funds decreased by over 46 billion yuan. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The low inventory of old apples, high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, and pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking expectations will boost the price trend. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices and pay attention to the listing of early - maturing Fuji apples [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple futures contract is 8278 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 89060 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 16948 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3562 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 4102 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75), Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75), and Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commodities) are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively, with no week - on - week change [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.74 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.5 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.56 million tons. The capacity ratios of apple cold - storages in Shandong and Shaanxi are 0.01 and 0.07 respectively. The monthly apple export volume is 50000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1997.6 million US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples is 6328.4 million US dollars, with a month - on - month decrease of 212886 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.76 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.7 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.5 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The average daily morning arrival vehicle numbers at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Chalong, and Xiaqiao fruit wholesale markets are 11.4, 14.4, and 22.2 respectively, with week - on - week increases of 3.8, 4.8, and 7.2 respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 21.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.51% [2] Industry News - On August 27, 2025, the trading of bagged Gala apples in the western production areas basically ended, with the remaining fruits of poor quality and chaotic prices. The bag - removing work of early - maturing Fuji apples has started, but large - scale listing is yet to come. The supply of Gansu Huaniu apples is increasing, but the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is average, and the price is slowly declining. In the Shandong production area, the trading of stored Fuji apples is still ongoing, with holders eager to sell and the market weak. The supply of early - maturing varieties such as Mei 8 and Luli is decreasing, and transactions are priced according to quality. The apple 2510 contract rose 1.47% on Wednesday [2] Viewpoint Summary - It is initially estimated that the national apple output in the new season will be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 20, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.56 million tons. Although the inventory of old apples is low, the increase in the supply of early - maturing apples has affected the de - stocking speed of inventory goods, and the sales volume has slowed down slightly compared to last week. The market is worried that late - maturing Fuji apples may also have quality problems, leading to high expectations for their opening price [2]