Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current supply - demand situation in the cotton (yarn) market remains loose. The new cotton delivery is nearly finished, but the new flower sales progress is slow, and the market digestion is below expectations. The port inventory is high, and the downstream demand has no obvious improvement. The new orders of textile enterprises have decreased, and the overall market trading is light. The report suggests paying attention to the improvement of actual replenishment willingness and macro - dynamics in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,765 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,045 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 124,589 lots, down 960 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 911 lots, down 147 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract position is 546,943 lots, up 1,675 lots; cotton yarn main contract position is 6,543 lots, down 1,364 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 2,403 sheets, down 5 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 14 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,936 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,770 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,935 yuan/ton, unchanged; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) arrival price is 20,988 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 13,932 yuan/ton, unchanged; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) arrival price is 22,245 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,834 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton is 785 thousand tons, down 76 thousand tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import quantity is 90 thousand tons, down 10 thousand tons; cotton yarn import quantity is 140 thousand tons, up 10 thousand tons [2]. - Imported cotton profit is 964 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton is 2,930.6 thousand tons, up 1,908.9 thousand tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; grey fabric inventory days are 31.97 days, up 0.85 days [2]. - Cloth output is 2.62 billion meters, down 0.18 billion meters; yarn output is 2001 thousand tons, down 73 thousand tons [2]. - Clothing and clothing accessories export amount is 11003480.43 thousand US dollars, down 1449766.57 thousand US dollars; textile yarns, fabrics and products export amount is 11258418.92 thousand US dollars, down 708097.08 thousand US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call option is 7.4%, up 2.24%; implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put option is 7.4%, up 2.25% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.21%, up 0.38%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.73%, up 0.12% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of November 28, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 4.1794 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 379.3 thousand tons (9.98% increase). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 3.6164 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 373.9 thousand tons (11.53% increase); the commercial cotton in the inland is 182.7 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 thousand tons (0.33% increase) [2]. - As of November 27, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports increased by 1.28% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 380.3 thousand tons. The inventory of imported cotton in Zhangjiagang Port and surrounding warehouses in Jiangsu is about 34.2 thousand tons, and the inventory in other ports is about 29.1 thousand tons [2]. 3.8 View Summary - The supply side: New cotton delivery is nearly finished, but the sales progress is slow, and the market digestion is below expectations. The port inventory remains high, and the RMB shipment volume is limited, with more imports than exports and light market trading [2]. - The demand side: The downstream demand has no obvious improvement. New orders of textile enterprises have decreased significantly, the yarn shipment rhythm has slowed down, and the overall market trading atmosphere is light [2]. - The current supply - demand situation remains loose. In the future, pay attention to whether the actual replenishment willingness improves and macro - dynamics [2].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term inventory increase of production and trading companies in the synthetic rubber industry is expected to be limited, and the br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,600 in the short term. The recovery of overall capacity utilization will be restricted by some enterprises' maintenance plans at the beginning of the week [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,310 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the main contract position is 48,804, down 3,217. The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is 0, up 5. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 3,410 tons, up 300 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions range from 10,400 - 10,650 yuan/ton, and most have increased by 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 140 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. The price of Brent crude oil is 63.2 dollars/barrel, down 0.14 dollars; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 571.5 dollars/ton, up 5.5 dollars. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 740 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 820 dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of WTI crude oil is 58.55 dollars/barrel, down 0.52 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 7,225 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.94 million tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 70.97%, down 1.56 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 47,300 tons, up 7,500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.99%, up 0.73 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.76 million tons, up 0.72 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 70.19%, down 2.45 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 434 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.24 million tons, up 0.09 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,900 tons, up 270 tons; the trader's inventory is 5,540 tons, up 660 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.95 days, down 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.23 days, down 0.63 days. As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66%, down 3.36 percentage points month - on - month and 13.64 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.75%, up 0.71 percentage points month - on - month and 2.68 percentage points year - on - year [2] Industry News - In October 2025, the domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, up 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. As of November 26, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.24 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic sugar market has seen a situation where Guangxi's sugar cane crushing is relatively delayed while Yunnan's sugar crushing progress is faster than the same period last year. The listing of new sugar in Guangxi has led to a decline in Yunnan sugar prices, but processed sugar and beet sugar prices are relatively stable, providing support to Guangxi sugar prices. With the previous negative factors in the market basically digested and the pessimistic sentiment easing, it is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate in the future [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5405 yuan/ton, with a change of 5; the main contract's open interest is 350,573 lots, a decrease of 10,944 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 0, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -60,675 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar is 183 pieces, with no change [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4172 yuan/ton, an increase of 15; that of Thai sugar within the quota is 4218 yuan/ton, an increase of 12. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5289 yuan/ton, an increase of 18; that of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5349 yuan/ton. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30; in Nanning, Guangxi is 5470 yuan/ton, with no change; in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 [2] Industry Situation - The national total sugar production is 1236 tons, a decrease of 12; the cumulative sugar production in Yunnan is 1116.21 tons, an increase of 5.49; the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi is 602.29 tons, an increase of 26.66; the total Brazilian sugar export is 420.5 tons, an increase of 95.92. The import volume of sugar in the current month is 75 tons, an increase of 20; the cumulative import volume is 390 tons, an increase of 74 [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 88.3 tons, an increase of 34.39; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1096.2 tons, a decrease of 495.5 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 6.35%, an increase of 0.28; that of at - the - money put options is 6.35%, an increase of 0.28. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.78%, a decrease of 0.07; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.81%, a decrease of 0.02 [2] Industry News - As of October 14, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 140,751 lots, an increase of 25,944 lots from the previous week. The long position was 173,974 lots, a decrease of 3,512 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 314,725 lots, an increase of 22,432 lots from the previous week. As of the week of November 26, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 56, down from 61 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.0672 million tons, a 10.1% decrease from 2.2994 million tons in the previous week [2]

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/12/1 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 801.00 | +7.00↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 376,674 | -14304↓ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 23.5 | -2.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 11753 | -5128↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The acquisition progress of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's production areas is over half, with prices trending weakly. The short - term price of Zhengzhou jujube futures may remain weak. The inventory of 36 sample points has increased both on a week - on - week and year - on - year basis. The main purchasing power in the market currently comes from Cangzhou merchants, and the acquisition progress of the remaining goods in each production area needs to be closely monitored in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for jujubes is 9055 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 98983 lots (a decrease of 6574 lots compared to the previous period), the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16102 lots, the number of warehouse receipts is 54 (an increase of 54 compared to the previous period), and the total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1390 lots [2]. Spot Market - The prices of jujube products in various regions are as follows: the unified price of Kashgar jujubes is 6.5 yuan/kg (a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg compared to the previous period), the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei is 4.45 yuan/jin (unchanged), the unified price of Alar jujubes is 5.5 yuan/kg (unchanged), the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Henan is 4.45 yuan/jin (unchanged), the unified price of Aksu jujubes is 5.05 yuan/kg (unchanged), the price of special - grade jujubes in Henan is 9.8 yuan/kg (unchanged), the price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei is 9.81 yuan/kg (a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg compared to the previous period), the price of special - grade jujubes in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg (unchanged), and the price of first - grade jujubes in Guangdong is 9.8 yuan/kg (unchanged) [2]. Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 318.7 million tons, and the planting area is 199.3 million hectares (a decrease of 4.1 million hectares compared to the previous period) [2]. Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 10848 tons (an increase of 518 tons compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 5.01% and a year - on - year increase of 90.32%), the monthly jujube export volume is 2205220 kg (a decrease of 78451 kg compared to the previous period), and the cumulative monthly jujube export volume is 25753622 kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative sales volume of jujubes of Hao Xiang Ni is 36480.43 tons (a decrease of 2981.06 tons compared to the previous period), and the cumulative year - on - year production growth rate is 1.47% (a decrease of 34.59 percentage points compared to the previous period) [2]. Industry News - The acquisition progress of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's production areas is over half, with prices trending weakly. The acquisition progress in Aksu and Alar areas is relatively fast, and the purchased goods are being shipped. The acquisition in Hotan, Qiemo, and Ruoqiang areas has ended. The acquisition of raw materials in the production areas is priced according to quality, adhering to the principle of high - quality and high - price. The acquisition enthusiasm is average [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall trading in apple production areas remains light. The inventory in apple cold storages across the main production areas in China has decreased. The storage ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi has also declined. The arrival volume in the sales areas has increased, but the trading atmosphere is still light. Due to the increased listing volume of citrus fruits squeezing the sales space of apples, the apple futures price is expected to remain high in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the impact of other substitute fruits [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,526 yuan/ton. The main contract position volume is 82,106 hands, a decrease of 9,791 hands. The net long position volume of the top 20 futures holders is 7,695 hands, an increase of 1,604 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial) is 4.2 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in China is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.06 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg. The total weekly inventory in national apple cold storages is 766.75 million tons, a decrease of 6.41 million tons. The weekly storage ratio in Shandong is 0.54, a decrease of 0.01; in Shaanxi is 0.58, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,334,364 million US dollars, a decrease of 503,616 million US dollars. The year - on - year monthly apple export amount is - 14.3%. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.71 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg; of bananas is 5.37 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg; of watermelons is 5.78 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg. The weekly average daily morning arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 16 vehicles, an increase of 3.8 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 19.2 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 25.2 vehicles, an increase of 1.4 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 1.85%, a decrease of 15.66%; of at - the - money put options is 17.51%, a decrease of 9.27% [2] Industry News - The overall trading in apple production areas is light. In Shandong and Shaanxi, there are few people inspecting goods in cold storages, and most of the small - volume transactions are based on negotiated prices. In Gansu, the sales are relatively good, with smooth trading of Huaniu and small Fuji fruits and stable transaction prices. The trading of late - season Fuji apples has slowed down, and the shipments from the origin are mainly for packaging pre - ordered goods [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply is tight due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports, zero inventory of rapeseed, and shutdown of oil mills. However, the demand is weak as the temperature drops, reducing the demand for aquaculture, and soybean supply is relatively abundant with good substitution advantages for soybean meal. Recently, rapeseed meal has generally maintained a volatile trend, and short - term participation or waiting is recommended. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. - Rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price, but soybean oil supply is abundant and has good substitution advantages, so the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has shown a narrow - range volatile and slightly downward trend, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9770 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2423 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) is 286 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) is 20 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2]. - The main contract holding volume of rapeseed oil is 171,603 lots, down 4,352 lots; the main contract holding volume of rapeseed meal is 289,881 lots, down 29,820 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 1,510 lots, down 1,148 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal is - 23,062 lots, down 11,421 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3,855 sheets, down 110 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. - The futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 651.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.6 Canadian dollars; the futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5405 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,228.75 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7,976.95 yuan/ton, up 16.48 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio is 4, up 0.03 [2]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 353 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 3 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8570 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1540 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3060 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast value of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume for the current month is 0 tons, down 115,300 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 664 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the current month is 140,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the current month is 220,600 tons, up 62,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 1.02 million tons, down 0.23 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 0.01 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 35.5 million tons, down 0.95 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 22.66 million tons, down 0.3 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.92 million tons, down 0.23 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 23 million tons, up 0.7 million tons [2]. - The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil is 0.86 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal is 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of feed is 29.57 million tons, down 1.717 million tons; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 519.9 billion yuan, up 69.04 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4.276 million tons, down 0.674 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.9%, down 0.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.9%, down 0.34% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.6%, up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.86%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.32%, up 0.49%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 14.32%, up 0.49% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.96%, down 0.83%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.56%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On November 28 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, but rose more than 9 Canadian dollars this week. The January rapeseed futures contract fell 90 cents, settling at 650.70 Canadian dollars per ton. The March rapeseed futures contract fell 30 cents, settling at 664.20 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - US soybeans have entered the export season with a temporary abundant supply. In the global export market, the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. However, the domestic crushing consumption of US soybeans is good, and China has purchased nearly 2 million tons of US soybeans since October 30, which supports the price of US soybeans. The market is concerned about China's soybean purchases from the US, and US soybeans have recently maintained a wide - range volatile trend at a high level [2]. - The US government is considering postponing a plan to cut incentives for biofuel imports by 1 - 2 years. In November, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined, and the inventory accumulation pressure still exists. Recently, Southeast Asia has suffered from floods, increasing the expectation of seasonal production cuts in palm oil and boosting the low - level rebound of Malaysian palm oil [2]. 3.8 Key Focus - The rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions released by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of Sino - Canadian trade relations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report PVC social inventory is accumulating slightly at a high level. The cost of the calcium carbide process is rising, leading to deeper losses, while the cost of the ethylene process is decreasing, with a slight profit recovery. The PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to continue rising, and the high - operation state is likely to be maintained in December. With the temperature dropping, the downstream PVC开工率 is expected to decline seasonally. Although the overseas demand exists after the termination of India's BIS and anti - dumping tax policies on imported PVC, it has limited effect on alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction. The PVC market has rebounded recently due to cost - side benefits and short - covering, but the rebound space is limited under the background of high PVC operation and weak demand. Technically, the daily K - line of V2601 should pay attention to the pressure around 4600 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC is 4553 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 916,061 lots, with a daily increase of 192,901 lots; the open interest is 1,071,518 lots, with a daily decrease of 47,059 lots. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,065,765 lots, with a daily increase of 926 lots; the short position is 1,209,806 lots, with a daily increase of 246 lots; the net long position is - 144,041 lots, with a daily increase of 680 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4560 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4516.92 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 38.46 yuan/ton. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4625 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4523.12 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 21.25 yuan/ton. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 640 US dollars/ton, with no change; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 620 US dollars/ton, with no change; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 660 US dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of PVC is - 63 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 4 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2750 yuan/ton, with no change; in North China, it is 2690 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 16.67 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it is 2534 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 24.5 yuan/ton, with no change. - The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 438 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 38 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 498 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 40 US dollars/ton. - The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 173 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 6 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 178 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 6 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 80.22%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.39%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 83.61%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.3%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.38%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.74%. - The total social inventory of PVC is 52.79 million tons, with a daily increase of 0.12 million tons. The total social inventory in the East China region is 48.13 million tons, with a daily increase of 0.08 million tons; in the South China region, it is 4.66 million tons, with a daily increase of 0.04 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 92.43, with a monthly decrease of 0.35. - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 49,061.39 million square meters, with a monthly increase of 3662.39 million square meters. - The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 652,939.03 million square meters, with a monthly increase of 4359.03 million square meters. - The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 3898.297 billion yuan, with a monthly increase of 311.91 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.91%, with a daily decrease of 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.38%, with a daily increase of 0.17%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for PVC is 15.97%, with a daily increase of 1.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.97%, with a daily increase of 1.66% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 22nd to 28th, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 80.22%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.39%. - From November 22nd to 28th, the downstream PVC开工率 increased by 0.42% week - on - week to 49.61%. Among them, the pipe开工率 decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 38.8%, and the profile开工率 increased by 0.21% week - on - week to 36.09%. - As of November 27th, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% week - on - week to 104.28 million tons. - From November 22nd to 28th, the average national cost of the calcium carbide process increased to 5131 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5187 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide process decreased to - 881 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process increased to - 465 yuan/ton [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is at a high level, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports, but the unloading time of some vessels is uncertain due to cargo quality, and the specific inventory trend needs to consider the impact of variable factors on unloading and pick - up speed [2] - The load of olefin enterprises in East China has increased, and the weekly average operating rate of the olefin industry is expected to continue to rise. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2160 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2136 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton [2] - The main contract's open interest is 1003722 lots, a decrease of 45066 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 178982 lots [2] - The number of warehouse receipts is 3800, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1992.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton [2] - The price difference between East China and Northwest is 107.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2] - CFR China Main Port price is 246 dollars/ton, an increase of 3 dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 317 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - FOB Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia is - 71 dollars/ton, an increase of 3 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas price is 4.86 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.24 dollars/million British thermal units [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 93.75 tons, a decrease of 8.03 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 42.6 tons, a decrease of 3.55 tons [2] - The methanol import profit is - 16.34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.32 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, an increase of 18.57 tons [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 373700 tons, an increase of 15000 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.09%, an increase of 0.32% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.98%, an increase of 0.97%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 7.88%, an increase of 2.19% [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 73.06%, an increase of 3.47%; the operating rate of MTBE is 69.97%, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 89.93%, an increase of 0.28%; the methanol - to - olefins profit is - 811 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.44%, a decrease of 0.86%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.55%, an increase of 0.01% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.91%, an increase of 1.68%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.91%, an increase of 1.67% [2] Industry News - As of November 26, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 37.37 tons, a 4.19% increase; the order backlog is 23.07 tons, a 6.34% decrease [2] - As of November 26, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 136.35 tons, a decrease of 11.58 tons. The inventory in East China and South China has decreased [2] - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 91.01%, a 0.9% increase. The load of olefin enterprises in East China has increased [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term near - month contracts may be in a wide - range oscillation state. Spot prices remain low, the breeding end is still in a loss state, and the market's enthusiasm for replenishment is poor, which is beneficial to forward prices. However, the in - production inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and there is no excessive culling of old hens, and high production capacity still restricts market price performance [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 3201 yuan/500 kilograms, with a decrease of 92 compared to the previous period; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 34306 hands, with a decrease of 12799 hands; the monthly spread (1 - 5) of egg futures is - 392 yuan/500 kilograms, with a decrease of 77; the futures holding volume (active contract) of eggs is 170082 hands, with a decrease of 566 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.12 yuan/jin, with an increase of 0.07; the basis (spot - futures) is - 82 yuan/500 kilograms, with an increase of 166 [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 114.24 (2015 = 100), with a decrease of 1.02; the national culled laying hen index is 114.44 (2015 = 100), with a decrease of 10.19; the average price of layer chicks in the main producing areas is 2.7 yuan/feather, with no change; the national new - born chick index is 67.09 (2015 = 100), with a decrease of 9.56; the average price of layer compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, with no change; the breeding profit of layer hens is - 0.41 yuan/feather, with an increase of 0.05; the average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 7.6 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.16; the national culling age of chickens is 510 days, with an increase of 3 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 17.8 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.03; the average wholesale price of pork is 5.86 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.07; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.89 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.32; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.2 days, with an increase of 0.15; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.1 days, with an increase of 0.09; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, with an increase of 178.74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales area is 7472 tons, with an increase of 88.6 tons [2] Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 6.29 yuan/kg, up 0.20 from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.81 yuan/kg, up 0.18 from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.73 yuan/kg, the same as yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.40 yuan/kg, up 0.24 from yesterday. The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the culling volume of old hens, resulting in a slight decline in the laying hen inventory and a slight improvement in the market atmosphere [2]