Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market continued its downward trend today, and it is expected to have limited further decline tomorrow. If it continues to fall, there may be an intraday rebound. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price falls below 8,200 yuan [2]. - The overall demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon remains flat. The supply in the southwest region is expected to increase, while the production in Xinjiang remains stable [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,515 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan. The position of the main contract was 281,839 lots, down 7,286 lots. The net position of the top 20 was - 84,679 lots, down 7,835 lots. The warehouse receipts of GZEE were 50,938 lots [2]. - The price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 35 yuan, down 15 yuan [2]. b. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, both unchanged [2]. - The basis of the Si main contract was 835 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan. The DMC spot price was 11,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, and the average price of petroleum coke was 1,810 yuan/ton, both unchanged [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 333,200 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons. The weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons, and the monthly export volume was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons. The overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 dollars/kg [2]. - The average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,400 yuan/ton, and the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 dollars/kg, both unchanged [2]. - The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24,908.89 tons, a decrease of 861.29 tons. The weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.71%, a decrease of 2.34 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.536 million tons, a decrease of 133,000 tons, and the monthly export volume was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. f. Industry News - The China Fluorine and Silicon Organic Silicon Materials Industry Association in Lanzhou held an "anti - involution" meeting today [2]. - On the industrial silicon supply side, in the southwest region, as the wet season deepens, the electricity price advantage becomes more obvious, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan is increasing, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase next week. In Xinjiang, large - scale plants maintain stable production, while small and medium - sized plants have low enthusiasm for resuming production [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has cooled, the mainstream positions have reduced long positions, and the steel market is intertwined with multiple and short factors, so the market may fluctuate. Technically, for the HC2510 contract, the 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that the rebound of DIFF and DEA is under pressure, and the red column is shrinking. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,367 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; the position volume is 899,991 lots, down 38,254 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 69,010 lots, down 14,157 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is 10 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,855 tons, down 894 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 254 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,430 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 63 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 774 yuan/wet ton, down 7 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 3,020 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 13,845.20 tons, up 25.93 tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants is 39.38 tons, up 0.33 tons; the inventory of coke in sample steel mills is 609.69 tons, down 0.09 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 116.09 tons, up 3.57 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.34%, down 0.23%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.27%, up 0.03%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 325.24 tons, up 9.65 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 83.08%, up 2.46%. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 78.89 tons, down 1.09 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 282.55 tons, up 5.06 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 7,966 tons, down 353 tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 939 tons, up 18 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 259.11 million vehicles, down 20.30 million vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 259.34 million vehicles, down 31.11 million vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 2,059.65 million units, down 778.66 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 873.07 million units, down 31.68 million units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 877.43 million units, down 73.36 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid - August, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was 2.115 million tons, a 2.0% increase from the previous period; the steel inventory was 15.67 million tons, a 4.0% increase from the previous period. From August 18th to August 24th, global shipyards received 16 + 4 new ship orders, among which Chinese shipyards received 8+3 orders, and South Korean shipyards received 6 orders [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply of polysilicon is increasing while the demand is weakening, and it is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week. Although the price is supported by costs and policies, the upside space is limited by the downstream acceptance, and it is likely to continue to show a volatile trend. The demand for industrial silicon has started to decline steadily, but the supply has also decreased, and the overall situation remains volatile. Polysilicon continued to decline today, and there is still room for further decline. If it subsequently breaks below 49,500, it is recommended to gradually reduce short positions, and after the sentiment stabilizes, long positions can be established. The operation suggestion is to wait and see for now or to arrange put options [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 50,985 yuan/ton, down 595 yuan; the open interest of the main contract is 137,478 lots, up 677 lots; the price difference between polysilicon contracts 11 - 12 is -2,380 yuan, unchanged; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,470 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 49,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is -1,985 yuan/ton, up 595 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - grade polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - grade polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,515 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 333,200 tons, up 8,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 105,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,170 tons, up 57 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.46 US dollars/kg, up 0.16 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 66,382,000 kilowatts, down 1,004,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 units, up 21,456,820 units; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,525,650 units, up 3,429,750 units; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/unit, down 0.02 US dollars; the polysilicon sub - index of the photovoltaic industry composite price index (SPI) is 28.48, up 0.62 [2] Industry News - Today, the China Fluorosilicone and Organic Silicone Materials Industry Association in Lanzhou held an "anti - involution" meeting. In terms of polysilicon, from the supply side, the weekly output of polysilicon has climbed, and it is expected that the output in August will increase. If the "production and sales restrictions" are implemented in September, the monthly output may remain flat month - on - month. However, from the current situation, the previously ramping - up production bases in the southwest are at full capacity, and although some northwest enterprises have started and stopped production, the overall output still shows an increasing trend [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report's Core View - The production of domestic butadiene rubber has increased due to the restart of previously overhauled devices, and the mainstream supply price has further increased. However, the high pressure - buying sentiment of downstream buyers has led to slow terminal sales. Last week, the inventory of production enterprises decreased slightly while that of trading enterprises increased. This week, the capacity of some overhauled devices will be significantly released, and domestic supply may increase significantly, with the finished - product inventory level expected to rise. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased last week but may decrease slightly this week due to high - temperature weather and limited overall order increments [2]. - The BR2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,750 - 12,300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 43,120, a decrease of 3,585. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,490 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical in different regions increased by 150 - 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 265 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 68.8 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.07 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 592.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 5.5 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 840 dollars/ton, an increase of 10 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1095 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of WTI crude oil was 64.8 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.14 dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.11 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 68.15%, a decrease of 1.54 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 27,300 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 49.13%, an increase of 1.61 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 69.15%, an increase of 4.63 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 458 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton; the social inventory was 30,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 23,200 tons, a decrease of 250 tons; the trader's inventory was 7,410 tons, an increase of 420 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.13%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.76%, an increase of 1.67 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, an increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, an increase of 1.74 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.76 days, an increase of 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.05 days, an increase of 0.32 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 21, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. In July 2025, the output of butadiene rubber in China was 129,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2].

Project Category Futures Market - Zhengzhou urea main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1737, down 8 [2] - Zhengzhou urea 1 - 5 spread (daily, yuan/ton): -40, up 4 [2] - Zhengzhou urea main contract open interest (daily, lots): 219820, down 3120 [2] - Zhengzhou urea top 20 net positions: -36223, up 1257 [2] - Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts (daily, sheets): 5123, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Hebei (daily, yuan/ton): 1730, down 40 [2] - Henan (daily, yuan/ton): 1710, down 40 [2] - Jiangsu (daily, yuan/ton): 1710, down 30 [2] - Shandong (daily, yuan/ton): 1700, unchanged [2] - Anhui (daily, yuan/ton): 1730, down 30 [2] - Zhengzhou urea main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): -37, up 8 [2] - FOB Baltic Sea (daily, US dollars/ton): 445, unchanged [2] - FOB China's main port (daily, US dollars/ton): 447.5, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory (weekly, 10,000 tons): 50.1, up 3.7 [2] - Enterprise inventory (weekly, 10,000 tons): 102.39, up 6.65 [2] - Urea enterprise operating rate (weekly, %): 83.99, up 0.77 [2] - Urea daily output (weekly, tons): 194400, up 1700 [2] - Urea export volume (10,000 tons, %): 57, up 50 [2] - Urea production: monthly value (monthly, tons): 6052080, up 20740 [2] Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer operating rate (weekly, %): 40.84, down 2.64 [2] - Melamine operating rate (weekly, %): 46.6, down 3.22 [2] - Weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China (weekly, yuan/ton): 131, up 15 [2] - Weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea (weekly, yuan/ton): -126, down 48 [2] - Compound fertilizer production: monthly value (monthly, 10,000 tons): 422.12, up 5.3 [2] - Melamine production: total weekly value (weekly, tons): 23200, down 1600 [2] Industry News - As of August 20, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 102.39 tons, up 6.65 tons from last week, a 6.95% week - on - week increase [2] - As of August 21, China's urea port sample inventory was 50.1 tons, up 3.7 tons week - on - week, a 7.97% increase [2] - As of August 21, China's urea production enterprise output was 136.11 tons, up 1.25 tons from the previous period, a 0.93% week - on - week increase; capacity utilization was 83.99%, up 0.77% from the previous period, showing a slight upward trend [2] Viewpoint Summary - Due to recent restarts of some plants, domestic urea daily output has slightly increased. Considering short - term enterprise breakdowns, the probability of reduced production is high [2] - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season with only sporadic local demand. Industrial compound fertilizer is mainly for phased replenishment, with a decline in enterprise operating rate. Affected by environmental protection and inventory pressure, compound fertilizer capacity utilization is expected to decline slightly, reducing the rigid demand for urea [2] - Domestic demand is weak. Although a few urea enterprises are supported by export orders and breakdowns, overall enterprise inventory is still on the rise. Short - term export news is favorable for reducing urea enterprise inventory, but the decline may be limited due to enterprise purchase restrictions and slow growth in domestic demand [2] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1710 - 1760 in the short term [2] Prompt Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. Overseas supply arriving at the port has decreased, while downstream tire companies have a positive purchasing sentiment, leading to better-than-expected warehouse shipments. [2] - Last week, the domestic tire production capacity utilization rate increased. However, this week, the production capacity utilization rate of tire companies may slightly decline due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall order increments. [2] - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,200 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,000 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,790 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. [2] - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 139,114 lots, an increase of 6,184 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 58,896 lots, an increase of 1,690 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 32,299 lots, an increase of 232 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,345 lots, a decrease of 1,124 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 177,290 tons, a decrease of 470 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 44,352 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Thai STR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, an increase of 35 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian SMR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, an increase of 35 US dollars/ton. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 was 12,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene rubber BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 935 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,058 yuan/ton, an increase of 185 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 268 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheets was 62.3 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.75 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber films was 58.33 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.73 Thai baht/kg. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 55.25 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.25 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup lump was 49.85 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.35 Thai baht/kg. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 235 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19.2 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 37.8 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.6 US dollars/ton. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, a decrease of 21,300 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.76%, an increase of 1.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.13%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.76 days, an increase of 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47.05 days, an increase of 0.32 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, an increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, an increase of 1.74 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.01%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.69%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.78%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From August 24th to 30th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in northern Vietnam, Laos, and southern Myanmar, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. The red areas south of the equator were mainly in western Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, slightly reducing the impact on rubber tapping. [2] - As of August 24th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% compared with the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%; the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. [2] - As of August 21st, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2601 fell 1.35% to close at 2,703 yuan/ton. Supply - side capacity utilization decreased slightly last week, while demand - side indicators such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing开工率 increased. Liquid caustic soda factories significantly reduced inventory last week. This week, some devices are planned to stop and restart, with expected slight increase in caustic soda capacity utilization. The alumina industry's strong profit supports caustic soda demand, non - aluminum demand seasonally rises, and Shandong's liquid caustic soda inventory pressure is low. Caustic soda spot prices are expected to have little fluctuation this week, and the expected commissioning of alumina devices by the end of the year gives the 01 contract room for premium. The operating range of SH2601 is expected to be around 2,660 - 2,820 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,703 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 118,465 lots, a decrease of 7,799 lots; the net position of the top 20 in futures was - 5,818 lots, a decrease of 4,467 lots; the main contract trading volume was 507,419 lots, a decrease of 9,330 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2,703 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract was 2,793 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2,687.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was - 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 15th to 21st, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%. As of August 21st, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 396,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 9.46% and a year - on - year increase of 16.67% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the strengthening of the US dollar, the ICE cotton futures price closed lower. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, with a tight supply before the new cotton is on the market, and the spot price is firm. [2] - The total quota of China's 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade is 200,000 tons, which puts short - term pressure on the cotton main contract futures price. [2] - On the demand side, although inland textile enterprises have no profit, there are certain expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season. The start - up rate of some previously shut - down enterprises has slightly increased. [2] - In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops. [2] - Overall, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. In the medium term, the price is suppressed by the expected increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to go long on dips and control risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 57,567 hands, down 3,023 hands; main contract holdings of cotton: 508,064 hands, up 3,455 hands; cotton warehouse receipts: 6,977 sheets, down 127 sheets; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex: 3128B): 15,334 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff): 13,610 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty): 14,367 yuan/ton. [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,130 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 516 hands, up 193 hands; main contract holdings of cotton yarn: 22,263 hands, down 13 hands; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 63 sheets, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count): 20,760 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count): 21,880 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count): 23,749 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. [2] Spot Market - The relevant price data in the futures market also reflects the spot market situation to some extent, including the price changes of domestic and imported cotton and cotton yarn. [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area in 2025 is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B): 5,426 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide: 857,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; cotton import volume in the current month: 50,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume in the current month: 110,000 tons, unchanged; import cotton profit: 868 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide: 2.1898 million tons, down 640,000 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 27.67 days, down 0.69 days;坯布 inventory days: 36.14 days, down 1.1 days; cloth output in the current month: 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; yarn output in the current month: 2.065 million tons, up 0.114 million tons; monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 1,516,175,900 US dollars, down 10,495,500 US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 1,160,400,900 US dollars, down 44,419,800 US dollars. [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton: 11.34%, up 0.26%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton: 11.35%, up 0.24%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.38%, up 0.15%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.68%, down 0.06%. [2] Industry News - China's 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota is 200,000 tons. As of the week ending August 24, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 54%, compared with 55% in the previous week and 40% in the same period last year. On Monday, the ICE December cotton contract closed down 0.91%. On Tuesday, the cotton 2601 contract closed down 0.11%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract closed down 0.15%. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decrease, demand will gradually increase, and with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,930 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the 3 - month lead quote on LME is 1,995 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [3] - The spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 85,396 lots, down 1,333 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,540 lots, up 1,253 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 58,201 tons, down 747 tons [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 63,690 tons, down 1,154 tons; the LME lead inventory is 273,050 tons, down 6,550 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,990 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract is - 130 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 33.79 US dollars/ton, up 4.59 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS lead supply - demand balance is - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged [3] - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.27%, up 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [3] - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 77.66%, up 4.41 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 37,500 tons, up 2,200 tons [3] - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 70 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons [3] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of the waste battery market is 10,132.14 yuan/ton, up 1.78 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,975 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] - The Shenwan Industry Index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells is 2,038.33 points, up 37.47 points; the monthly automobile output is 2.51 million, down 298,600 [3] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1.647 million, up 73,000 [3] 3.6 Industry News - The US plans to include copper and potash in the list of critical minerals [3] - Intel says the Trump administration's shareholding poses a risk to the business, and the government's shareholding may rise to 15%. Trump says he will continue to reach similar deals [3] - Fed's Logan says there is still room to lower bank system reserves, and the standing repurchase facility may be re - enabled in September [3] - Powell "joins" the dovish camp, opening the door for the Fed to cut interest rates in September [3] - White House National Economic Council Director Hasset says it is appropriate for the Fed to consider an interest rate cut [3] - ECB President Lagarde says the European economy is resilient but not prosperous, and tariffs may have little impact on European GDP [3] 3.7 View Summary - The primary lead smelters are relatively strong, and their by - product revenues are stable. However, with the continuous fluctuation of lead prices, the production decisions of some primary lead smelters have been adjusted, and the output of primary lead still fluctuates slightly [3] - The supply of recycled lead shows regional differences. The supply of waste battery raw materials is tight, and smelters lack confidence. The overall supply side is tight [3] - The sewage inspection in Anhui has a marginal impact on local recycled lead production, increasing the uncertainty of recycled lead supply [3] - The operating rate of recycled lead decreases slightly and remains at a relatively low level. The profits of recycled enterprises have not improved, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [3] - Foreign inventories are rising, domestic inventories are falling, and overall inventories are rising. Demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction, but it is expected to gradually strengthen, providing some support for lead prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 oscillated downward, closing at 6,156 yuan/ton. The supply side was affected by the expansion of the restart of previous petroleum benzene units, with the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increasing by 0.98% week-on-week to 78.99%. In North China, the number of hydrogenated benzene units that stopped or reduced production increased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 5.03% week-on-week to 57.69%. On the demand side, the operating rates of pure benzene downstream industries changed differently last week, and the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream industries increased by 0.19% week-on-week to 78.42%. In terms of inventory, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased by 4.17% week-on-week to 138,000 tons. This week, petroleum benzene units are expected to operate stably, and there will be both shutdown and restart of hydrogenated benzene units. Overall, the domestic pure benzene production is expected to change little. The arrival volume of imported pure benzene in East China will increase, and the supply of pure benzene may remain loose. Terminal demand is insufficient, and all five major downstream industries of pure benzene are in a loss state, so pure benzene consumption may continue to be weak. The situation of strong supply and weak demand of domestic pure benzene is expected to continue, putting pressure on prices. In terms of cost, the recent international oil prices have rebounded due to geopolitical and crude oil supply risks caused by Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to oscillate, and technically, attention should be paid to the support around 6,100 and the resistance around 6,300 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of pure benzene was 6,156 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the settlement price was 6,195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan. The trading volume was 4,763 lots, a decrease of 573 lots; the open interest was 13,195 lots, an increase of 131 lots. The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast markets were 6,055 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 6,130 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 6,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 6,120 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan) respectively [2] Spot Market - The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea's FOB mid - price was 735 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China was 750.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 68.49 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.21 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 592.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.5 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 450,800 tons, an increase of 5,600 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 144,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons. The production cost of pure benzene was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene was 78.53%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, an increase of 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, an increase of 2 percentage points [2] Industry News - From August 15th to 21st, the profit of petroleum benzene of PetroChina was 707 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of August 25th, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 138,000 tons, a decrease of 4.17% from the previous period [2]