1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, with continuous inventory reduction. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. The technical indicator shows that the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with the initial appearance of green columns. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 96,940 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 171,173 hands, up 6,764 hands; the position of the main contract is 543,633 hands, up 16,635 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 560 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 8,222 hands/ton, up 2,781 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 94,350 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 91,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 2,590 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,230 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 10,525 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,894 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume is 245.91 tons, up 95.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 36,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 166,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 146,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 39,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 59.51%, down 0.1%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 45.26%, down 0.36% [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 279,793 contracts, up 4,316 contracts; the total put position is 276,207 contracts, up 19,248 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 98.72%, up 5.4405%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.36%, down 0.0047% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a symposium on power and energy - storage battery manufacturing enterprises, aiming to promote high - quality development of the industry [2] - The deputy secretary - general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicted that China's annual automobile sales will exceed 34 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 16 million vehicles and automobile exports expected to exceed 6.8 million vehicles [2] - Russian President Putin said that Chinese electric vehicles are more competitive than European ones [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 作者：廖宏斌 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 +1.64% | 10 年国债到期收益率+0.18%/本周变动+0.33BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 +1.46% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 -0.29% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周集体上涨，除上证指数外 | 本周点评：10月经济指标全线回落，基本面小幅承压， | | | 均涨超3%。四期指亦集体上涨，中小盘股强于大盘蓝 | 预计四季度经济延续弱修复态势，对债市形成支撑。央 | | | 筹股。本周市场交投相对平淡，24日晚间中美两国元 | 行延续适度宽松的政策基调，但年内货币进一步宽松的 | | | 首通话推升市场短线风险偏好，27日国家统计局公布 | ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2512 | 1.75 | 0.14 | 4505.8 | | | IH2512 | 0.57 | -0.05 | 2963.2 | | | IC2512 | 3.02 | 0.95 | 6874.2 | | | IM2512 | 3.46 | 0.95 | 7260.8 | | 现货 | 指数名称 | | | 收盘价 | | | 沪深300 | 1.64 | 0.25 | 4526.66 | | | 上证50 | 0.47 | -0.09 | 2969.62 | | | 中证500 | 3.14 | 1.15 | 7031.55 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Canola Oil**: This week, canola oil futures fluctuated and closed lower. The 01 contract closed at 9,757 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous week. Although the export of Canadian canola has declined significantly this year, the Canadian biofuel production incentive plan, which designates canola oil as the core raw material, and the agreement between Canada and Pakistan to promote canola exports to Pakistan provide support. Domestically, the supply of imported canola is structurally tight, and canola oil will continue to be destocked, supporting its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage limit the demand for canola oil. The canola oil futures price has been fluctuating narrowly and slightly lower recently, but it may be stronger than other oils due to tight supply. Short - term participation is recommended [8]. - **Canola Meal**: This week, canola meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed higher. The 01 contract closed at 2,452 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous week. The US soybean is in the export season with abundant supply, but it faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. The good domestic crushing consumption in the US and China's purchase of nearly 2 million tons of US soybeans since October 30 support the US soybean price. Domestically, the import of Canadian canola and canola meal is restricted, and the supply is tight. However, the demand for canola meal in aquaculture has weakened due to the temperature drop, and the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal reduce the demand for canola meal. The canola meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The canola meal has been generally fluctuating recently, and short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and the breakthrough of China - Canada trade policies [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Canola Oil**: The 01 contract of canola oil futures closed at 9,757 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous week. The export decline of Canadian canola exerts pressure, but policies and new export agreements provide support. Domestically, the supply is tight, and the price is supported, but the demand is limited by soybean oil. The price may be stronger than other oils, and short - term participation is recommended [8]. - **Canola Meal**: The 01 contract of canola meal futures closed at 2,452 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous week. The US soybean market has both supply and demand factors. Domestically, the supply is tight, but the demand is weak. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Canola oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total position of 175,955 lots, a decrease of 67,869 lots from last week. Canola meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed up, with a total position of 319,701 lots, a decrease of 36,483 lots from last week [14]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The top 20 net positions of canola oil futures were +2,658 this week, compared with +4,542 last week, with a slight increase in net long positions. The top 20 net positions of canola meal futures were - 11,641 this week, compared with - 10,587 last week, with a slight increase in net short positions [19]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 3,965 lots, and those of canola meal were 0 lots [24][25]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 10,700 yuan/ton, slightly lower than last week. The basis between the active contract of canola oil and the spot price in Jiangsu was +313 yuan/ton. The price of canola meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan/ton, basically the same as last week. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of canola meal was - 32 yuan/ton [34][40]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of canola oil was +256 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of canola meal was +37 yuan/ton, at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [48]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 01 contract of canola oil and canola meal was 3.979, and the ratio of the average spot price was 3.97 [52]. - **Price Spread between Canola Oil and Other Oils**: The spread between the 01 contract of canola oil and soybean oil was 1,513 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 01 contract of canola oil and palm oil was 1,131 yuan/ton. Both spreads fluctuated narrowly and contracted this week [61]. - **Price Spread between Soybean Meal and Canola Meal**: The spread between the 01 contract of soybean meal and canola meal was 592 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 560 yuan/ton as of Thursday [67]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Canola**: As of November 21, 2025, the total inventory of canola in oil mills was 0.1 million tons. The estimated arrival volumes of canola in November, December, and January 2025 were 1, 60, and 36.5 million tons respectively. The spot crushing profit of imported canola was +1,190 yuan/ton as of November 27. The crushing volume of canola in coastal oil mills was 0.0 million tons in the 47th week of 2025, with an operating rate of 0.0%. The import volume of canola in October 2025 was 0 million tons [73][77][81][85]. - **Canola Oil**: As of the end of the 47th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed canola oil was 43.9 million tons, a decrease of 4.4 million tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.98%. The import volume of canola oil in October 2025 was 14.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.11% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.59 million tons. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.276 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 519.9 billion yuan. The contract volume of imported and crushed canola oil was 3.8 million tons as of the end of the 47th week of 2025, an increase of 0.1 million tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 4.91% [89][93][97]. - **Canola Meal**: As of the end of the 47th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed canola meal was 0.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 100.00%. The import volume of canola meal in October 2025 was 22.06 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.99% and a month - on - month increase of 6.30 million tons. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 29.57 million tons [101][105][109]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 28, the implied volatility of canola meal options was 17.7%, a decrease of 3.03% from the previous week, and it was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [113].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11. 28」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 ◆ 行情回顾：美联储降息预期大幅抬升，贵金属市场本周偏强运行。宏观数据方面，美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%，核心 PPI环比上涨0.1%，较前值有所抬升，但主要由食品能源价格上涨驱动，核心商品PPI增速有所放缓；ADP就业报告显 示，截至2025年11月8日四周内，美国私营企业雇主平均每周削减13,500个岗位，较前值每周减少2,500人的幅度显著 扩大，美国就业市场延续降温态势。联储内部表态整体呈鸽派基调，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示在劳动力走软背景下 存在降息空间，旧金山联储主席戴利支持下次会议降息，理事米兰重申应在通胀尚高时实施更大幅度降息，美联储12 月降息25个基点的概率由上周五的40%大幅抬升至86.9%，降息预期提振市场乐观交易情绪。地缘方面，美乌完成一份 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 fell 6.67%, and the far - month contracts fell between 7 - 11%. The poor implementation of the freight rate increase plan led to a significant decline in the near - month futures prices. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index rebounded significantly, up 20.7% week - on - week. The recovery foundation of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Spot freight rates decreased, and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine remained stalemated. The eurozone economy continued to improve. The shipping capacity remained loose, and the traditional peak - season boost effect might be weaker than expected. The futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently [6][42]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - Futures: The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures declined rapidly this week. Contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 all had different degrees of decline, with the decline ranging from 6.55% to 11.03%. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract remained high, and market trading warmed up [9][13][15]. - Spot: The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1639.37, up 271.7 points from last week, a 20.7% week - on - week increase [6][42]. 2. News Review and Analysis - China expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to Japan's prime minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan. This news was considered neutral to bearish [18]. - Trump's team made progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and a peace plan was being negotiated. This news was considered neutral to bullish [18]. - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes strengthened the market's expectation that the current interest - rate cut cycle had ended, which was considered neutral to bullish [18]. - Some Fed officials signaled interest - rate cuts, while others thought it was necessary to hold the rates steady in December. This news was considered neutral [18]. 3. Chart Analysis - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts shrank this week [25]. - The export container freight rate index declined collectively this week [29]. - Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the European Line capacity recovered as the peak season approached. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [32]. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated at a high level this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar narrowed [36]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined this week. The implementation of the freight rate increase plan was poor, and the recovery of terminal transportation demand was not solid. Spot freight rates decreased, and the geopolitical situation was stalemated while the eurozone economy continued to improve [42]. - The shipping capacity remained loose, and the boost effect of the traditional peak season might be weaker than expected. The futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [7][43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract 2601 rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.97%. The domestic cotton market has a loose supply - demand situation. The new cotton purchase is almost over, but the sales of new flowers are slow, and the port inventory remains high. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, with fewer new orders for textile enterprises and a slow - down in the shipment of cotton yarn [5]. - Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory levels. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract 2601 rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.97% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the new cotton purchase is near the end, and the cost is fixed with the price of seed cotton. However, the sales of new flowers are significantly slow, and the market digestion is slower than expected. The port inventory remains high. As of November 27, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports increased by 1.28% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 380,300 tons. The shipment in RMB is limited, with more imports than exports and light market trading. On the demand side, the downstream demand has not improved significantly. Textile enterprises have significantly fewer new orders, the shipment of cotton yarn has slowed down, and the overall market transaction atmosphere is weak. The current loose supply - demand situation continues. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the actual restocking willingness improves and macro - dynamics [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: As of October 7, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 70,902 lots, a decrease of 1,689 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 129,324 lots, an increase of 6,748 lots from the previous week; the net short position was 58,422 lots, an increase of 8,437 lots from the previous week. The price of the US cotton March contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.06% [8][11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: For the week ending October 9, US current - year cotton export sales increased by 157,600 bales net, a decrease of 21% from the previous week and an increase of 1% from the average of the previous four weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 74.5 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.15 cents per pound from last week [15]. - **Futures Market**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton contract 2601 rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.97%. The cotton yarn futures contract 2601 increased by about 1.85%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 123,629 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 764 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,408, and that of cotton yarn futures was 14 [20][26][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,896 yuan per ton. The national purchase price of seed cotton 3128B was 3.15 yuan per 500 grams, and that in Xinjiang was 3.42 yuan per 500 grams. The price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,660 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,700 yuan per ton, and CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,670 yuan per ton [39][42][54]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of November 27, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 13,895 yuan per ton, an increase of 52 yuan per ton from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,866 yuan per ton, an increase of 82 yuan per ton from last week. As of November 26, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 19,987 yuan per ton; C32S was 21,097 yuan per ton; JC32S was 22,870 yuan per ton [58]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of November 27, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 987 yuan per ton, an increase of 39 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,940 yuan per ton, an increase of 9 yuan per ton from last week [61]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: - **Commercial Cotton Inventory**: At the end of October, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 186.84%, and 43,400 tons higher than the same period last year. As of the end of October, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 888,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 61,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 42,700 tons [64]. - **Imported Cotton Quantity**: In October 2025, China's total cotton imports were about 90,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons or 15.6%. In October 2025, China imported 140,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [70]. - **Demand Side**: - **Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the grey cloth inventory days were 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [73]. - **Textile and Garment Exports**: In October 2025, China's textile and garment exports were 22.26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. Among them, textile exports were 11.258 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.9%; garment exports were 11 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 16.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.6% [78]. - **Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of clothing retail sales was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [82]. 3.4 Options and Stock - related Markets - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data analysis is provided [83]. - **Stock Market**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is shown in the chart, but no specific data analysis is provided [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, economic growth continued the slowdown trend from the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments had been fully disbursed by the end of October, which may effectively boost investment in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the annual economic growth target of 5% can be achieved. - Overseas, the release of the US October CPI and some employment data was hindered due to data collection issues during the shutdown. The number of initial jobless claims last week hit a 7 - month low. The Fed's economic beige book showed that recent US economic activity was stable, but there were downward risks in the labor market. Since November, the US interest - rate cut rhythm has been inconsistent, and the dovish tone within the Fed has become more prominent, increasing the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December. - The economic indicators in October declined across the board, and the fundamentals were slightly under pressure. It is expected that the economy will continue the weak recovery trend in the fourth quarter, which will support the bond market. The central bank maintains a moderately loose policy tone, but the space for further monetary easing this year is limited. During the policy vacuum period, the bond market sentiment is generally weak and sensitive to news, and it may continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term, waiting for directional guidance from uncertain factors such as the central bank's Treasury bond trading scale in November and the new fund redemption rules [99][100]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' active contracts (TL2512, T2512, TF2512, TS2512) fell by 0.93%, 0.45%, 0.10%, and 0.08% respectively. The trading volumes were 520,100, 442,800, 320,200, and 164,100 respectively [12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The closing prices of the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts all declined. The trading volume of the TS main contract decreased slightly, while those of the TF, T, and TL main contracts increased. The open interest of all main contracts (TS, TF, T, TL) increased [15][21][29]. 3.2 News Review and Analysis - **Key News**: On November 24, the National Development and Reform Commission planned to formulate standards for identifying costs in disorderly price competition. On November 25, the central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan. On November 27, it was reported that from January to October, the total profit of national large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% year - on - year, but in October, it decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. On November 28, many regions in China were researching and planning policies to support the sale of completed properties. In addition, there were news about the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan and the US jobless claims data [32][33]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: This week, the spread between the 10 - year and 5 - year Treasury bond yields narrowed, while the spread between the 10 - year and 1 - year yields widened. The spreads between the 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts both narrowed. The spread between the current and next quarters of the 10 - year contract widened, while that of the 30 - year contract narrowed. The spreads between the current and next quarters of the 5 - year and 2 - year contracts widened [42][48][52]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased [65]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The overnight Shibor rate decreased, while the 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The DR007 weighted average rate fell to around 1.46%. The yields of short - term Treasury bonds were strong, while those of medium - and long - term bonds were weak. The 1 - 3 - year yields decreased by 0.5 - 1.5 bp, the 5 - 7 - year yields increased by about 3 bp, and the 10 - year and 30 - year yields increased by about 1.9 and 2.7 bp respectively, reaching 1.83% and 2.18%. The spreads between the 10 - year and 30 - year US and Chinese Treasury bond yields both narrowed slightly [69][76]. - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 151.18 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with 167.6 billion yuan due; it also conducted 200 billion yuan of MLF operations, with 90 billion yuan due, achieving a net investment of 13.58 billion yuan [79]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 141.494 billion yuan, the total repayment was 119.1457 billion yuan, and the net financing was 22.3482 billion yuan [81]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0789, with a cumulative increase of 86 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased, and the VIX index dropped significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield in China increased significantly, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [85][91][96]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategies - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In October, social retail sales, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed a downward trend, and the growth rates of social financing and credit decreased year - on - year. The support of government bonds for social financing continued to weaken, and the actual loan demand of enterprises and residents remained weak. The growth rates of M1 and M2 declined, and the activation of deposits slowed down. The year - on - year export growth rate turned negative, falling by 1.1% compared with the same period last year. - **Overseas Situation**: The release of the US October CPI and some employment data was affected. The number of initial jobless claims last week was at a 7 - month low. The Fed's economic beige book showed stable economic activity but downward risks in the labor market. The expectation of an interest - rate cut in December increased. - **Market Outlook**: The economic indicators in October declined, and the fundamentals were under pressure. It is expected that the economy will continue the weak recovery trend in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank maintains a moderately loose policy, but the space for further monetary easing is limited. In the short term, the bond market may continue to fluctuate within a range, waiting for directional guidance from uncertain factors [99][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.88%. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased, and the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped also declined by 10.1%. In the domestic market, the sugar - cane crushing in Guangxi was relatively delayed, while the progress in Yunnan was faster than last year. The entry of low - priced new sugar from Guangxi into the market drove down the sugar price in Yunnan. Although processed sugar and beet sugar had some impact, their prices were relatively firm, providing support for the sugar price in Guangxi. With the market's major negative factors mostly digested and the pessimistic sentiment easing, the sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the future. Future factors to watch include the domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.88% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: As of the week of November 26, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 61 to 56, and the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped dropped from 229.94 million tons to 206.72 million tons, a 10.1% decline. In the domestic market, as of now, 21 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 2025/26 season, 36 less than the same period last year, while 9 sugar mills in Yunnan have started, 4 more than last year. The new sugar from Guangxi entered the market, driving down the sugar price in Yunnan. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the future [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 US Sugar Market - The price of the US Sugar March contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 2.37%. As of October 7, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 114,807 lots, an increase of 9,600 lots from the previous week. Long positions decreased by 4,117 lots to 177,486 lots, and short positions increased by 5,483 lots to 292,293 lots [10]. 3.2.2 International Raw Sugar Spot Market - This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.32 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.28 cents per pound from last week [17]. 3.2.3 Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Market - The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.88%. The top 20 net position of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 60,406 lots, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 0, and the valid forecast was 183 [21][27]. - The spread between the Zhengzhou Sugar 1 - 5 contracts was + 73 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 215 yuan/ton [31]. 3.2.4 Spot Market - As of November 28, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,615 yuan/ton [37]. - This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,501 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 79 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 89 yuan/ton from last week [43]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [47]. - As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91% month - on - month, and an increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% year - on - year [50]. - In October 2025, China's sugar imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.62% and a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.12% [54]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - As of the end of October 2025, sugar mills in the 2024/25 crushing season had all stopped crushing. The national sugar production in this sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [60]. - In October 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 883,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.1%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 10.962 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [64]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - No specific content analysis for the option market is provided except for the figure of the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Zhengzhou sugar this week. For the stock - related market, a figure of the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is given, but no specific analysis [65][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The silicon iron market has weak supply - demand, neutral inventory, high costs, and profit losses. It is expected that in December, production will decline compared to the same period, and the price will fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5650 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro**: This heating season, energy supply and demand are generally balanced, and there is sufficient resource supply. As of November 26, the coal inventory of national unified - regulated power plants exceeded 230 million tons, with an available days of about 35. On November 24, South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese medium - thick and alloy steel hot - rolled plates for 5 years. From January to October, the steel industry's profit was 10.532 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit year - on - year [7]. - **Overseas**: Federal Reserve Governor Waller said the US job market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December 9 - 10 meeting [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid demand restocking, prices have fallen, and inventory has continued to decline this period. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 320 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 525 yuan/ton. In November, HBIS's tender price for 75B silicon iron was 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous round [7]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the silicon iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - **Strategy**: In terms of new production capacity, there will be no new capacity put into production this year. Silicon iron manufacturers are suffering obvious losses, and it is expected that December production will decline compared to the same period. The country will continue the policy of reducing crude steel production in 2025, and the subsequent crude steel output will continue to decline. Coke profit has limited room for significant improvement, and alloys are likely to remain in a loss state [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of November 28, the position volume of silicon iron futures contracts was 494,700 lots, an increase of 46,100 lots compared to the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract month spread was - 30, a decrease of 4 points. The number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 10,907, an increase of 2631 compared to the previous period. The price of silicon iron in Ningxia was 5180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [13][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 28, the basis of silicon iron was - 290 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 points compared to the previous period [24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply**: This week (November 27), the national average operating rate (capacity utilization) of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 33.41%, a decrease of 0.40% compared to the previous week. The daily average output was 15,320 tons, a decrease of 0.97% (150 tons) compared to the previous week. The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 19,660 tons, an increase of 0.60% compared to the previous week, and the national silicon iron production (weekly supply) was 107,200 tons [28]. - **Inventory**: This week (November 27), the national inventory of 60 independent silicon iron enterprises was 71,830 tons, a decrease of 1.67% (1220 tons) compared to the previous week. Inventory in Inner Mongolia decreased by 2000 tons, while that in Ningxia increased by 400 tons, in Gansu by 150 tons, in Shaanxi by 300 tons, and in Qinghai decreased by 70 tons, and remained unchanged in Sichuan [32]. - **Upstream**: As of November 24, the electricity price in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia for silicon manganese and silicon iron remained unchanged. As of November 27, the domestic market price of medium - grade semi - coke in Inner Mongolia and the tax - included price of semi - coke in Shenmu remained unchanged. The spot production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5444 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase, and in Ningxia was 5625 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase. The spot profit of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 525 yuan/ton, a 11.23% decrease [36][40]. - **Downstream**: This week, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 8100 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to October, the total export volume of Chinese silicon iron (Si > 55%) was 317,337.522 tons, a decrease of 8.85% year - on - year [43].