-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 交割压力或减轻，钢材去库幅度加大，煤焦震荡 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 28 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1.央行表示，中国将根据国内外经济金融形势，择机降准降息。 2.1-2 月，全国规上工业企业 利润同比下降 0.3%，降幅较 2024 年全年收窄 3 哥百分点。 3.大商所优化焦炭期货合约，增加平衡水指标，平衡水≤1%的焦炭视为干熄焦，将 干熄焦定为标 准品，平衡水>1%的作为替代品 ，设置贴水 110 元/吨。该调整自 J2604 合约之后执行。 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看多 焦煤——震荡 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Report's Core View - The 2024/25 sugar production is nearing its end, with northern beet sugar mills shut down and southern cane sugar mills entering the crushing stage. As of the end of February 2025, China's cumulative sugar production reached 9.72 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.77 million tons; cumulative sugar sales were 4.75 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.97 million tons; the sales progress was 48.9%, 1.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In March, continuous rainfall in Guangxi, Yunnan and other places alleviated the drought, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth, but weather changes still need to be monitored. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production decreased compared to the previous year, and India's production also fell short of expectations, widening the international supply-demand gap [1] - In the domestic cotton market, commercial inventories are at a five-year high, with relatively sufficient supply. After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises gradually resumed production, with the operating rate rising to a high level and the delivery speed of textile products accelerating. Internationally, the cotton export volumes of the United States and Brazil increased compared to the same period last year, and the market outlook for the textile industry is cautiously optimistic. The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is about to enter the sowing period, and the sowing situation in major producing countries needs to be monitored [1] Data Summary Price and Spread - From March 25 to March 26, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.92%, from $19.55 to $19.37; the price of US cotton increased by 0.94%, from $65.13 to $65.74 [3] - The spot price of sugar in Nanning remained unchanged at 6,150 yuan, while in Kunming it increased by 0.08%, from 6,000 yuan to 6,005 yuan. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.01%, from 3,281 to 3,280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.68%, from 14,650 yuan to 14,550 yuan [3] - The spreads of sugar and cotton futures contracts showed different degrees of change, such as SR01 - 05 increasing by 1.59%, SR05 - 09 decreasing by 11.21%, etc. [3] Basis and Import Price - The basis of sugar and cotton futures contracts also changed, for example, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by 17.35%, and the basis of cotton 01 decreased by 3.86% [3] - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.75 from March 25 to March 26, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged at 864 [3] Option and Warehouse Receipt - The implied volatility of sugar and cotton options contracts is different, such as SR505C6100 with an implied volatility of 0.1102 and CF505C13600 with an implied volatility of 0.0767 [3] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 27,950, while the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.26%, from 9,141 to 9,117 [3]

期货研究报告 商品研究/金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 原油早报 走势评级： 原油——震荡 张秀峰—化工研究员 从业资格证号：Z0011152 投资咨询证号：F0289189 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 王诗朦—原油研究员 从业资格证号：F03121031 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：wangshimeng@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 隔夜维持反弹 但动能略有衰减 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 3 月 27 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 收盘数据： 至 3 月 26 日收盘，2025 年 5 月 WTI 涨 0.65 报 69.65 美元/桶，涨幅 0.94%；2025 年 5 月布伦特原油涨 0.77 报 73.79 美元/桶，涨幅 1.05%。中国 原油期货 SC 主力 2505 收涨 2.1 元/桶，至 539.4 元/桶。 市场逻辑： ...

期货研究报告 宏观金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 股指日报 走势评级： 震荡 宋婧琪 从业资格证号：F03100886 投资咨询证号：Z0021165 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：songjingqi@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 成交量下降，观望情绪再起，短期仍是调整阶段 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 03 月 26 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 宏观股市信息： 核心逻辑小结： 近期指数回调，程度上基本回吐了 3 月 14 日涨幅，交易情绪再次出现降温。 一方面， 3 月以来指数连续震荡，板块热点扩散，多空分歧强化的背景下， 本次回踩符合我们的预期。另一方面，短期恐慌情绪释放有限，体现在成交 缩量，期权隐含波动率回落等方面，预计资金还会在这个位置附近博弈一段 时间，对应走势偏弱震荡。我们认为，当前恰逢两会后的政策空窗期，叠加 上市公司财报披露在即，股指继续处于调整阶段。此外，考虑到估值水平仍 处于 2024 ...

商品研究 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 多空要素再平衡，郑棉短期震荡观望 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-03-26 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已接近尾声，北方的甜菜糖厂已全部停产， 而南方的甘蔗糖厂则陆续进入榨糖阶段。根据中国糖业协会的统计，截至 2025 年 2 月底，全国累计食糖产量达到 972 万吨，同比增加 177 万吨；累 计销售糖量为 475 万吨，同比增加 97 万吨；销售进度为 48.9%，较去年同 期加快了 1.4 个百分点。3 月，广西、云南等地迎来了持续降雨，旱情得到 缓解，有利于甘蔗的生长，但后续仍需关注天气变化。在国际市场方面，巴 西的食糖产量较上年有所下降，印度的产量也未达到预期，导致国际市场的 供需缺口进一步扩大。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：在国内市场，棉花商业库存仍然处于近五年来的最高水平，供给相 对充足。 ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看多 焦煤——震荡 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 钢厂主动减产，煤焦反弹 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 25 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1.新疆八钢、昆仑和闵新四家钢厂发布消息，主动减产 10%。 焦煤： 现货偏弱，期货反弹。唐山主焦煤报 1335 元/吨(-30)，京唐港山西产主焦煤报 1380(- 0)。活跃合约报 1030 元/吨(+20)。基差 305 元/吨(+50)，5-9 月差-58.5 元/吨（+8.5）。 供给小幅回升，需求继续下行。110 家洗煤厂开 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 供应前景改善，原糖短期震荡观望 | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-03-23 | 2025-03-24 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 19.69 | 19.28 | -2.08% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 65.35 | 65.46 | 0.17% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-03-21 | 2025-03-24 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6160.0 | 6150.0 | -0.16% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5985.0 | 6010.0 | 0.42% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.04% | | | 棉花（新疆） | 1 ...

期货研究报告 金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报 戴朝盛—宏观分析师 从业资格证号：F03118012 投资咨询证号：Z0019368 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：daichaosheng@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 3 月 16 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 国内经济：社融总量依靠政府债券支撑，内需仍然疲弱，M1 同比增速再 次转弱，仅为 0.1%。企业部门和居民部门融资同比增速均保持在历史低位。 根据历史规律，只有企业部门和居民部门融资增速均保持上升后，制造业 PMI 才会呈现稳定回升趋势。照目前的形势看，离经济回升还比较远。 房地产高频跟踪：本周，一线和二、三线城市新房销售量继续分化，二三 线城市继续沿着 2024 年路线运行，一线城市销量则仍远高于 2024 年同期 水平。二手房方面，截至 3 月 3 日，一、二、三线城市挂盘价指数有所分 化。一线城市挂盘价指数持平 ...

期货研究报告 金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 宏观月报 戴朝盛—宏观分析师 从业资格证号：F03118012 投资咨询证号：Z0019368 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：daichaosheng@cindasc.com 警惕季节性 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 3 月 4 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 国内：2 月处于经济数据真空期，部分已出炉的数据也会受到春节等季节 性效应影响，基本面整体较难捕捉。但根据以往经验，在前期较弱的基础上， 即使一个月数据出现回暖，也不能就此断定基本面出现明显改善，我们需要 观察到数据的持续好转才能下定论。两会政策超预期的概率很小，只要符合 预期其实就是一种利好，目前仍可以该思维对待。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款1 [Table_Chart] | 一、 | 国内：数据真空期，两会预期发酵 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、 | 国外：特朗普关税政策 ...

Group 1: Domestic Economic Outlook - The current economic environment is characterized by a data vacuum, making it difficult to capture fundamentals, with upcoming policy expectations from the Two Sessions gaining traction[1] - The proposed fiscal measures include a 4% deficit rate and issuance of CNY 1.3 trillion in special bonds, with CNY 500 billion allocated for new infrastructure and CNY 800 billion for dual-use projects[1] - A total of CNY 4.4 trillion in special bonds and a CNY 4 trillion real estate storage plan over five years are also anticipated, which aligns with market expectations, leading to a generally positive market sentiment[1] Group 2: Real Estate Market Analysis - New home sales are showing seasonal recovery, significantly deviating from the 2022 trend, indicating stabilization in the new housing market[8] - The listing price index for second-hand homes is experiencing a downward trend, with first-tier cities maintaining relatively high levels while second and third-tier cities show signs of bottoming out[8] - Continued observation is required for the new home sales in the spring and the potential stabilization of the second-hand home market[8] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market remains under pressure due to a tight funding environment, with the central bank's net injections still in negative territory[2] - The yield on ten-year government bonds has surpassed 1.7%, influenced by ongoing discussions around policy measures as the Two Sessions approach[2] - Short-term interest rates are becoming more attractive, while the configuration of long-term rates is gradually improving[2] Group 4: U.S. Dollar and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar continues to decline, influenced by weaker-than-expected economic data, including a significantly lower services PMI and rising unemployment claims[22] - The spread between U.S. and European interest rates is narrowing, driven by the relative weakness of the U.S. economy compared to Europe[22] - The dollar index is currently around 106.6, with expectations for further declines in the coming week[22]