Report Summary Report Information - Report Title: Scrap Steel Morning Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Date: October 17, 2025 [1] Core Data - Scrap steel prices in different regions from October 10 to October 16, 2025 are as follows: | Region | October 10 | October 13 | October 14 | October 15 | October 16 |环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 2251 | 2245 | 2242 | 2238 | 2234 | -4 | | North China | 2323 | 2321 | 2315 | 2307 | 2293 | -14 | | Central China | 2074 | 2071 | 2059 | 2057 | 2053 | -4 | | South China | 2258 | 2250 | 2240 | 2235 | 2220 | -15 | | Northeast China | 2277 | 2272 | 2270 | 2266 | 2258 | -8 | | Southwest China | 2156 | 2146 | 2137 | 2135 | 2135 | 0 | [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and is highly volatile under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies [2][17]. - On Wednesday, the futures market fluctuated upwards under the influence of local news, shipping company price hikes, and capital position transfers. YML released a Week 44 spot price quote of $1550 [2][17]. - The downstream is currently booking space for late October. OA quotes $1800, PA quotes $1500, and GEMINI quotes around $1600, with an optimistic average of $1640 (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). Week 43 OA had good cargo intake, while PA and GEMINI alliances had average intake, with a possibility of further price drops (more offline) [2][17]. - The settlement price of the 10 - contract is expected to be between 1050 - 1100 points. Given the tight shipping capacity in Week 44, the price hikes announced for the first half of November are expected to be difficult to implement. However, there are still upward drivers at multiple future price - hike nodes. Currently, the valuation of the 12 - contract is high, and the long - position trading has returned to a driver - based period. Geopolitics has a significant impact on 2026 contracts [2][17]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1120.6, down 1.37%, with a basis of - 88.8, a trading volume of 3412, an open interest of 11335, and an open - interest change of - 1820 [2][17]. - EC2512: The price was 1708.6, up 2.06%, with a basis of - 676.8, a trading volume of 42616, an open interest of 27023, and an open - interest change of - 168 [2][17]. - EC2602: The price was 1463.4, down 0.07%, with a basis of - 431.6, a trading volume of 8209, an open interest of 9822, and an open - interest change of 112 [2][17]. - EC2604: The price was 1142.0, with a basis of - 110.2, and a trading volume of 4498, an open interest of 13676 [2][17]. - EC2606: The price was 1306.6, down 0.93%, with a basis of - 274.8, a trading volume of 385, an open interest of 1510, and an open - interest change of - 31 [2][17]. Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2510 - 2512: The spread was - 588.0, compared to - 537.9 the previous day and - 433.1 the day before that, with a daily change of - 50.1 and a weekly change of - 19.9 [2][17]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 245.2, compared to 209.7 the previous day and 202.6 the day before that, with a daily change of 35.5 and a weekly change of - 36.8 [2][17]. Index Data - SCEIS: Updated every Monday, announced on 2025/10/13, at 1031.80 points, down 1.40% from the previous period and 6.60% from the period before that [2][17]. - SCEI: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/10, at $1068 per TEU, up 9.99% from the previous period and unchanged from the period before that [2][17]. - CCFI: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/10, at 1287.15 points, down 8.19% from the previous period and unchanged from the period before that [2][17]. - NCFI: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/10, at 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period and 2.13% from the period before that [2][17]. News and Events - Shipping companies MSK, CMA, and OOCL announced price hikes to around $2500 in November, equivalent to around 1750 points on the futures market. However, due to the average cargo intake of many shipping companies in Week 43 and tight shipping capacity in Week 44 (330,000 TEU), these price hikes are expected to be difficult to implement [2][17]. - On October 15, negotiations on the second - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza were launched. The key points of the US government's "20 - point plan" include the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip, the disarmament of Hamas, the establishment of an international stabilization force, and the formation of a Palestinian independent technical bureaucracy committee. Hamas insists on Israel ending the occupation and Palestinian state - building as a prerequisite for complete disarmament, and the Israeli government currently only agrees to the first - stage agreement, suggesting that subsequent negotiations will not be smooth [2][17]. - On October 15, the Israeli government expected Hamas to return all hostages, decided to open the Rafah crossing, and the Israeli Defense Minister ordered the military to formulate a comprehensive plan to "crush Hamas" if the Gaza conflict resumes [2][17]. - Trump threatened that if Hamas does not abide by the cease - fire agreement, Israel will resume action at his order without US military intervention [3][18].

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a buy-on-dip approach considering the ongoing tightness in the mining end and the growing infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 per ton for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold at low prices in the long term while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1] - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export profit, and increased macro - uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider gradually taking profits on long - short spreads between domestic and foreign markets and look for reverse spread opportunities in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, but there are still potential price - support factors from the Indonesian policy side [3][4] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro - trade friction uncertainty and some price - support motivation from the Indonesian policy side [9] - For lead, the lead price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the range of 17,000 - 17,400 next week, with weakening demand and uncertain inventory drawdown in October [13][14] - For tin, follow the macro sentiment in the short term and consider holding at low prices near the cost line in the long term, paying attention to the expected changes in supply and demand after October [17] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is balanced in Q4, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the long term [18] - For lithium carbonate, the price has high elasticity after supply - side disturbance speculation is realized and strong downward support before the disturbance, with a general de - stocking trend [18] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the spot premium of SHFE copper changed by 30, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased by 140, and the SHFE copper warehouse receipt increased by 8,236. LME copper closed above $10,300 per ton on Friday, down 4.5% [1] - **Market Analysis**: The current tariff conflict may not be as severe as the Qingming Festival disturbance. There is still room for negotiation. On the fundamental side, there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week, and the downstream's price - fixing and receiving sentiment is expected to increase next week after the price drop. The copper cable's recent start - up is significantly different from that of the aluminum cable [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 30, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 4,975 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The operating capacity is increasing slightly. The demand for photovoltaic components has stabilized, but there is seasonal inventory accumulation. The global economic recovery is showing signs, but the Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, leading to a divergence in the internal and external market trends [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 200, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 250 [2] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose this week. The domestic TC decreased, and the imported TC increased. The domestic mine is expected to be tighter from Q4 to Q1 next year, while the overseas mine had an unexpected increase in Q2. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average. The export window has opened [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the SHFE nickel spot price increased by 400, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 3,498 [3] - **Market Analysis**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing overseas. The Indonesian policy still has price - support motivation [3][4] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel decreased by 20 [9] - **Market Analysis**: The steel mill's production in October increased slightly. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The cost remains stable, and the inventory increased during the holiday [9] Lead - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the lead price increased due to macro factors. The LME lead inventory increased by 8,225 [13][14] - **Market Analysis**: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The recycled lead production is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The demand may weaken after the National Day holiday. The market expects a shift from peak season to off - season in October [13][14] Tin - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the tin price increased due to macro factors. The LME tin inventory increased by 190 [17] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic smelting plants have reduced production, and the overseas supply is expected to recover in October. The domestic market is in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold at low prices in the long term [17] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 50, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 840 [18] - **Market Analysis**: The Xinjiang enterprises are resuming production, and the Sichuan and Yunnan operations are stable. The supply - demand is balanced in Q4, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom in the long term [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From October 9 - 15, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 2,104 [18] - **Market Analysis**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated this week. The overseas mines are firm on prices, and the salt plants are less accepting of high - priced lithium ore. The market is in an over - capacity stage, but there is de - stocking due to seasonal and demand factors [18]

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/10/9 2025/10/14 2025/10/15 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/10/9 2025/10/14 2025/10/15 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1170.0 | 1160.0 | 1160.0 | -10.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1344.0 | 1321.0 | 1319.0 | -25.0 | -2.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1160.0 | 1170.0 | 1170.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1250.0 | 1234.0 | 1232.0 | -18.0 | -2.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1409.0 | 1389.0 | 1384.0 | -25.0 | -5.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies [2]. - On Wednesday, the futures market fluctuated upward under the influence of geographical news, shipping company announcements, and capital position transfers. The YML released a week 44 quote of $1550 [2]. - The downstream is currently booking space for late October. The OA quotes around $1800, PA around $1500, and GEMINI around $1600, with an optimistically estimated average of $1640 (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures). The week 43 OA had good cargo collection, while PA and GEMINI alliances had average cargo collection, with a possibility of further price drops (more offline) [2]. - The expected settlement price of the 10 - contract is between 1050 - 1100 points. With high shipping capacity in week 44, the expected price increases in the first half of November are likely to fall short. There are still multiple potential price - increase nodes in the future. Currently, the valuation of the 12 - contract is high, and going long has returned to a period driven by fundamentals. Geopolitics has a significant impact on the 2026 contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information | Contract | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change (%) | Basis | Yesterday's Trading Volume | Yesterday's Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | EC2510 | 1120.6 | - 1.37 | - 88.8 | 3412 | 11335 | - 1820 | | EC2512 | 1708.6 | 2.06 | - 676.8 | 42616 | 27023 | - 168 | | EC2602 | 1463.4 | - 0.07 | - 431.6 | 8209 | 9822 | 112 | | EC2604 | 1142.0 | - 0.70 | - 110.2 | 4498 | 13676 | 310 | | FC.2606 | 1306.6 | - 0.93 | - 274.8 | - | 1510 | 39 | [2] Month - to - Month Spread Information | Month Spread | Previous Day | Two Days Ago | Three Days Ago | Daily Change | Week - on - Week Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | EC2510 - 2512 | - 588.0 | - 537.9 | - 433.1 | - 50.1 | - 19.9 | | EC2512 - 2602 | 245.2 | 209.7 | 202.6 | 35.5 | - 36.8 | [2] Index Information | Index | Update Frequency | Announcement Date | Unit | Current Period | Previous Period | Two Periods Ago | Current Change | Previous Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | - | Weekly | 2025/10/13 | Points | 1031.80 | 1046.50 | 1120.49 | - 1.40% | - 6.60% | | SCFI (European Line) | Weekly | 2025/10/10 | US dollars/TEU | 1068 | 971 | 971 | 9.99% | 0.00% | | CCFI (European Line) | Weekly | 2025/10/10 | Points | 1287.15 | 1401.91 | 1401.91 | - 8.19% | 0.00% | | NCFI | Weekly | 2025/10/10 | Points | 698.67 | 627.21 | 614.14 | 11.39% | 2.13% | [2] Recent European Line Quotation Information - Week 40 - 41: The average quote was $1470 (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures) [3]. - Week 42: The online quote was $1800. Offline, OA quoted around $1800, PA around $1500, and GEMINI around $1600, with an optimistically estimated average of $1640 (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures) [3]. - November price increase announcements: MSK, CMA, OOCL announced price increases to around $2500, equivalent to around 1750 points on the futures. However, many shipping companies had average cargo collection in week 43, and shipping capacity was high in week 44 (330,000 TEU), making the expected price increases difficult to materialize [3][11]

Report Information - Report Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Big Asset Morning Report [9] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On October 15, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.034%, 4.674%, 3.478% respectively [3] - Latest changes were all 0.000%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly variations differing across countries [3] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On October 15, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.480%, 3.952%, 1.957% respectively [3] - Latest changes, weekly, monthly, and yearly variations varied by country [3] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On October 15, 2025, rates against Brazil, Russia, South Africa, etc., were 5.521, 108.000, 17.505 respectively [3] - Latest changes were 0.00%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes differing [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On October 15, 2025, indices like S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq were 6552.510, 45479.600, 22204.430 respectively [3] - Latest changes were 0.00%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes varying [3] Credit Bond Indices - On October 15, 2025, US investment - grade, euro - area investment - grade, etc., indices were 3529.690, 265.945, etc. respectively [3] - Latest changes were 0.00%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes differing [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3912.21, 4606.29, 3001.35 respectively [5] - Percentage changes in prices were 1.22%, 1.48%, 1.36% respectively [5] Valuation - PE(TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc., were 14.31, 11.95, 34.70 respectively [5] -环比 changes were 0.17, 0.11, 0.43 respectively [5] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rates of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc., were 3.70, 5.77, - 0.38 respectively [5] -环比 changes were all 0.00 [5] Fund Flows - Latest values of A - shares, main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, etc., were 535.21, 302.49, - 56.21 respectively [5] - 5 - day average values were - 543.77, - 301.19, - 56.21 respectively [5] Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 20728.59, 6073.26, 1571.06 respectively [5] -环比 changes were - 5033.74, - 2016.33, - 620.88 respectively [5] Main Premium/Discount - Basis of IF, IH, IC were - 29.89, - 3.95, - 153.80 respectively [5] - Magnitudes were - 0.65%, - 0.13%, - 2.11% respectively [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Percentage Changes - Closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.130, 105.730, 107.815, 105.635 respectively [6] - Percentage changes were 0.10%, 0.09%, 0.11%, 0.09% respectively [6] Fund Interest Rates - R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3519%, 1.4694%, 1.5810% respectively [6] - Daily changes (BP) were - 12.00, 0.00, 0.00 respectively [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 16, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Category Cross - Market Arbitrage - **Copper**: On October 16, 2025, the domestic spot price was 85250, the LME spot price was 10745, with a spot ratio of 7.86; the domestic three - month price was 85850, the LME three - month price was 10717, with a ratio of 7.97; the spot import profit was - 1521.41 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22010, the LME spot price was 3076, with a spot ratio of 7.16; the domestic three - month price was 22040, the LME three - month price was 2936, with a ratio of 5.83 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20920, the LME spot price was 2764, with a spot ratio of 7.57; the domestic three - month price was 20935, the LME three - month price was 2757, with a ratio of 7.59 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123550, the LME spot price was 15044, with a spot ratio of 8.21; the spot import profit was - 1281.18 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16900, the LME spot price was 1946, with a spot ratio of 8.68; the domestic three - month price was 17130, the LME three - month price was 1991, with a ratio of 11.08 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 1400, 1450, 1390, and 1250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 524, 946, 1377, and 1808 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 185, - 160, - 125, and - 100, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 334, 454, and 574 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 70, 95, 105, and 100, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 448, and 564 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 60, 80, 85, and - 110, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 690, 840, 1060, and 1330 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 240, and the theoretical spread was 5832 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 815 and 585, and the theoretical spreads were 415 and 1091 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 190 and 5, and the theoretical spreads were 194 and 323 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 150 and 210, and the theoretical spreads were 207 and 320 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage - On October 16, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.90, 4.10, 5.01, 0.95, 1.22, and 0.78 respectively; for London (three - continuous) were 3.60, 3.85, 5.33, 0.93, 1.38, and 0.68 [5]

1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 4500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 柳林主焦 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500.00 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 600.00 1100.00 1600.00 2100.00 2600.00 3100.00 3600.00 4100.00 4600.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 蒙煤仓单 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 蒙古口岸原煤库提价 A10.5，V28，S<0.6%，G83 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 普氏峰景 20 ...

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| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/10/16 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/10/09 | 3190 | 3250 | 3220 | 3170 | 3290 | 3240 | | 2025/10/10 | 3190 | 3260 | 3220 | 3170 | 3290 | 3280 | | 2025/10/13 | 3130 | 3210 | 3190 | 3150 | 3260 | 3220 | | 2025/10/14 | 3110 | 3200 | 3270 | 3130 | 3250 | 3210 | | 2025/10/15 | 3090 | 3180 | 3270 | 3130 | 3250 | 3210 | | 变化 | -20 | -20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 ...